BUY STAWKS (Part 2)Global stocks bounced as expected. Higher highs on their way.
SPX - 2150 / 2160
DAX - 10380 / 1399
FTSE
FTSE100 - forming inverse head and shoulder necklineThe index currently trades around 6280. A 150-point move to inverse head and shoulder could happen in a single day. However, watch out for a failure at the neckline, especially ahead of Brexit referendum.
FTSE 100 - Is the index heading to 5300Monthly chart - Bullish Cypher in the making
All Cypher conditions appear to have been met. The D leg appears to have begun in April last year. (high of 7127 levels)
The 78.6% retracement comes to around 5284. The level almost coincides with 50% Fibo of 2009 low-2015 high level which comes around 5294. A break below 1.1196 preferably on day end closing basis would signal the downtrend from the high of 1.1616 has resumed.
FTSE outlookResistance – 6200, 6244, 6311
Support – 6119, 6050, 6000
FTSE’s rebound from 6119 (38.2% of Apr 2015 high-Feb 2016 low) if followed by a day end closing today above daily 200-SMA of 6149 would signal short-term bearish invalidation and open doors for a rise to 6208 (23.6% of Feb low-Apr high).
On the lower side, rejection at daily 200-SMA followed by a break below 6050 (Thursday’s low) would signal continuation of retreat from April high and expose 5950 levels.
FTSE 100 outlook –Awaits range breakoutResistance – 6161, 6200, 6237
Support – 6077, 6036.70, 6000
FTSE finds itself stuck between a range marked by daily 200-SMA and daily 100-SMA.
Prices have failed to see a daily close above/below the respective average levels since 5th May.
The said range today is 6161-6077. The lower end of the range almost coincides with 38.2% of Feb low – April high). As of now, waiting on the sidelines is advisable. Downside break on the daily closing basis would indicate the sell-off from the recent top of 6427 level has resumed
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FTSE 100 outlook – bears would cheer day end close below 6061Resistance – 6100, 6163, 6200
Support – 6061, 6036.70, 6000
FTSE’s failure to take out weekly 200-MA in late April followed by a sell-off and drop below daily 200-SMA restricted the buying interest this week.
We also saw a failure to take out daily 200-SMA hurdle yesterday followed by a bearish move today. The entire price action suggests bears are in control and may gain more strength if prices see a day end closing below 6061, in which case psychological support at 6000 could be put to test next week.
Note the falling top formation on daily chat and RSI at 36.00, which indicate room for further downside. Short-term bearish invalidation is seen only above daily 200-SMA level.
FTSE outlookSupport – 6119, 6082, 6054
Resistance – 6176, 6216, 6245
Failure to sustain above 5-SMA at 6136 followed by drop below daily low of 6125 would open doors for a re-test of critical support at 6082 (100-SMA). On the higher side, strong hurdle is noted at 6176 (200-SMA).
On larger scheme of things, bears appear in control given the index is trading below 200-SMA. Bearish invalidation is seen if index closes above 200-SMA, while bulls would come back if prices re-enter rising channel.
FTSE drops to 100-SMA as anticipatedSupport – 6061.85, 6036.70, 5933.23
Resistance – 6100, 6178, 6200
Following a breach of rising trend line earlier this week, FTSE has steadily extended losses below 200-DMA to test 6080 (100-SMA today).
Daily RSI, at 35.00, shows there room for further downside move.
Traders should watch out for a daily close below 6036.70, as it would open doors for cut through buyers around psychological figure of 6000.
Short-term loss of momentum and sideways action cannot be ruled out as well.
Bearish invalidation is seen only above 200-DMA level.
FTSE – Golden crossover, but…Daily Chart – Stuck between 200-SMA & 100-SMA
Resistance – 6181 (200-SMA), 6231
Support – 6080 (50-SMA) – 6072, 6036
Breach of rising channel earlier this week followed by a drop below 200-SMA yesterday and bearish daily RSI indicates prices could be heading lower to strong support at 6080 (50-SMA) – 6072 (38.2% of Feb low-Apr high).
Uptick witnessed today could be short lived given the wobbly oil prices and bearish daily RSI that is pointing to further losses.
The bullish crossover or ‘golden cross over’ between 50-SMA and 200-SMA is a good news on paper unless prices move back above 6237 (Mar 18 high).
FTSE – Rising trend line breachedDaily Chart
Formation- Rising trend line breached, bullish crossover between 50-SMA and 200-SMA
Support – 6110, 6060, 6036.70
Resistance – 6217, 6260, 6322.40
Bearish daily close below rising trend line has opened doors for a drift lower to strong support at 6060 levels.
On the higher side, rising trend line hurdle at 6217 is likely to restrict gains. Nevertheless, a rebound from 200-DMA could yield an upside break towards 6260 levels.
Traders need to watch out for a rejection at rising trend line hurdle at 6217.
The bullish crossover between 50-SMA and 200-SMA is a welcome news, but it is often a laggard indicator.
FTSE eyeing daily close below 200-DMADaily Chart
Pattern – Rising trend line breached
Resistance – 6214, 6230, 6270
Support – 6186, 6119, 6079
Prices trade around 200-DMA level of 6186 levels.
FTSE’s failure to sustain above 5-DMA followed by a drop below 6230 and 6214 (rising trend line) indicates short-term bullish invalidation and increased risk of a daily close below 200-DMA Level of 6186 levels.
A daily close today below 200-DMA of 6186 would open doors for a drop to 6091 (sideways channel support).
On the higher side, a break above 6230 is required to bring back bulls into the market.
FTSE - Pressuring into Fibo supportResistance – 6334, 6365, 6400
Support – 6289, 6244-6232, 6200
Bearish break from rising trend line on hourly chart on Friday saw index trying to cut through 6311 (50% Fib of Apr 2015 high-Feb 2016 low).
A break below 6289 (Friday’s low) could see prices test hourly 200-MA at 6244 - 6232 (sideways channel level on daily chart).
Rebound needs to ensure a violation at 6344 (hourly 100-MA) as that may yield 6370 (rising trend line hurdle on hourly).
On larger scheme of things, bull grip looks intact unless 200-DMA at 6200 is breached on daily closing basis.