FTSE UK100 Reaches Key Demand Area Amid Seasonal TrendsThe FTSE UK100 index has recently reached a crucial demand area, igniting traders' interest amid seasonality patterns observed over the past decade. Historically, this time of year tends to witness upward momentum in the index prices, making this a significant area for potential bullish moves. Given the historical context, many traders are closely monitoring developments as they assess whether the index will follow suit and initiate a rally.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides a tantalizing glimpse into market dynamics. It reveals that while retail traders are predominantly bearish, "smart money"—the institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions. This divergence is notable; retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator. With smart money stepping in at a demand zone, there is potential for a bullish reversal, which could support the index as it seeks to capitalize on favorable seasonal trends.
Moreover, the broader economic landscape remains conducive to this optimistic outlook. As the UK grapples with various macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates and monetary policy responses, investor sentiment has become increasingly nuanced. A stronger performance in the FTSE may be supported by sectors that typically thrive during this time, such as commodities and financial services, providing tailwinds for the index.
As traders look ahead, the focus on a bullish scenario is intensifying. The critical consideration is whether the FTSE UK100 can sustain momentum above the demand area, signaling a recovery phase that may align with both historical patterns and smart money positioning. If the index can maintain its footing and demonstrate strength in the coming sessions, it may very well affirm the bullish sentiment among those advocating for a market upturn.
In summary, the convergence of seasonal patterns, contrasting market sentiment as illustrated by the COT report, and the strong fundamental backdrop paints a compelling picture for the FTSE UK100. Traders are poised to explore opportunities in a potentially bullish scenario, keen to see if the index will follow historical tendencies and deliver a strong performance in the latter part of the year. As always, careful monitoring of market developments will be essential in navigating this promising but complex landscape.
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Ftse100
FTSE Index Rebounds from Near Three-Month LowFTSE Index Rebounds from Near Three-Month Low
The chart for the British FTSE 100 index (UK 100 on FXOpen) illustrates:
→ Indicated by the red arrow: Yesterday, the index fell below the 8100 level for the first time since early August, driven by bearish sentiment in the U.S. stock market following reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META), as we noted previously.
→ Indicated by the blue arrow: Today, the FTSE 100 is rebounding on the back of local economic data releases, including UK housing prices, which, according to Trading Economics, grew less than expected.
Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) suggests that the UK stock market may be entering a downtrend, as:
→ It’s plausible that the market has been in a period of consolidation since September, forming a narrowing triangle pattern between the Support and Resistance lines.
→ An attempted bullish breakout of the Resistance line in late October failed to trigger an uptrend, while the bearish breach of the Support line appears more substantial.
→ The arrows indicate that today’s uptick may simply be a bounce from the lower boundary of a descending channel.
What’s next?
Given the correlation with the U.S. stock market, traders will likely focus on today’s key U.S. employment report due at 15:30 GMT+3, which could provide critical signals on interest rate prospects ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
As long as the FTSE 100 index price (UK 100 on FXOpen) remains below the 8220 breakout level for the Support line, it appears the bears retain greater control.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE Bullish break-out taking place. Target 8650.Almost 2 months ago (August 30, see chart below) we called for a rejection of FTSE 100 (UK100) back to the Symmetrical Support Zone (SSZ), where our next buy entry would be:
As you can see, the price action duly delivered and the price has been gradually rising off the SSZ to the point where last week it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line. The 1W RSI is also about to make a bullish break-out above its own Channel Down.
We have seen this kind of pattern during the previous two Bullish Legs since late 2022. Every time they broke above the Resistance Zone, the price peaked around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a resut, our new long-term Target is 8650.
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FTSE 100 H4 | Potential bullish breakoutThe FTSE 100 (UK100) is trading within a symmetrical triangle chart pattern and could potentially break above it to rise higher.
Buy entry is at 8,266.17 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 8,210.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support.
Take profit is at 8,331.28 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Footsie Hasn’t Topped Yet; Shows Bullish PatternWe talked about Footsie back in May 2024, where we mentioned and highlighted an ongoing 5th wave in the weekly chart with space up to 8800 – 9400 target area.
Footsie a.k.a. FTSE100 or UK100 stock market index is still bullish with nice and clean inverted H&S pattern on a daily chart. After a higher degree A-B-C correction in wave (4), it can be getting ready for a bullish continuation within wave (5) by a new lower degree bullish setup formation. With sharp leg up into wave 1, we are actually tracking an a-b-c pullback in wave 2, where subwave »c« is coming out of subwave »b« triangle, so ideal support is at 8100 – 8000 area, from where we should be aware of a bullish resumption for wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle.
FTSE 100 Bullish Ahead of Key AnnouncementsFTSE 100 Bullish Ahead of Key Announcements
The chart of the UK stock index FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) shows prevailing positive sentiment in the market. The right side of the daily chart displays a series of bullish candles, with a likelihood of this trend continuing today, as the price has been rising since the market opened.
This optimism is likely driven by the anticipation of key announcements:
→ Tomorrow at 09:00 GMT+3, the UK CPI figures will be released. Analysts expect inflation to remain steady without an increase.
→ Also tomorrow, at 21:00 GMT+3, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates, with a cut seeming inevitable.
Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) chart shows:
→ In 2024, the price movement has followed an upward blue channel. The period starting in May may represent an interim correction (marked by red lines) within the ongoing uptrend.
→ The significance of the current rise lies in it being the second attempt to break through the upper red line, offering a chance to exit the corrective channel and resume growth. The first attempt was unsuccessful, as the bullish breakout above the upper red line encountered resistance from the median of the blue channel (indicated by an arrow).
Therefore, tomorrow's expected volatility spike could either reinforce the positive momentum, pushing the FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) higher beyond the red line, or act as a "cold shower," undoing recent bullish gains and driving the price back into the red channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE 100 Potentially topped. Strong pull-back incoming.Earlier this month (August 08, see chart below), we got the most optimal buy entry on FTSE 100 (UK100) that quickly hit the 8300 short-term Target, even earlier than we expected:
The price is now above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone, a symmetrical pattern to May - August 2023. We expect this rally to top soon and then pull-back the same way to the symmetrical Support Zone, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Shorters can target its top at 8150 and then buy for 8500.
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FTSE 3rd straight green day after the bottom.FTSE 100 (UK100) is having perhaps the most convincing bottom formation out of all major global indices as despite the selling pressure evident on each day, it is (so far) today on the 3rd straight green 1D candle since Monday's Low.
That Low came just a few points from touching not only the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the Higher Lows Zone (started on October 27 2023). At the same time, the Bearish Megaphone since its All Time High (ATH), displays striking similarities with the April - August 2023 pattern.
In fact, this week's Low seems to be similar with the August 18 2023 Low. That initiated a rebound that almost touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, before another correction. Even the 1D RSI patterns are similar among the two fractals.
As a result, we turn bullish again on FTSE here, targeting 8300 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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England's Economic Crossroads and Banking ResilienceEngland’s economy is facing a complex array of challenges, driven by domestic social unrest, geopolitical tensions, and evolving labor dynamics. Recent riots, sparked by both marginalized Muslim communities and extreme right-wing groups, highlight deep-seated socio-economic issues. These tensions have been exacerbated by international events, such as the October 7, 2023, incident in Israel, which reverberated through England's Muslim community.
In addition to these social and geopolitical pressures, the economic indicators present a mixed picture. Inflation, unemployment, and a housing crisis have strained the economy, while regional conflicts, such as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars, pose further risks to energy prices, trade, and security.
Amidst this backdrop, the Bank of England’s recent declaration that top UK lenders can be dismantled without taxpayer bailouts is a significant milestone. This statement reflects the progress made since the 2008 financial crisis in enhancing the resilience of the UK banking system through stricter capital requirements and resolvability assessments. However, emerging risks such as climate change, cyberattacks, and global financial interconnectedness require continuous vigilance and robust regulation.
Inspiration and Challenge:
As traders and investors, understanding the interplay between social dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial stability is crucial. England’s current economic state challenges us to think beyond traditional metrics and consider the broader implications of regional conflicts and social unrest on financial markets. The resilience of the UK banking system offers a glimmer of stability, but it also calls for ongoing scrutiny of emerging risks. Engage with this analysis to deepen your strategic insights and navigate the complexities of the global economic landscape.
$GBP - What shall we do now?$GBP - What shall we do now?
GBP - Since we hit below 1.14 - 1.10 it's really been a one way for this pair and it could continue...However, we have options!
1 Emergency rate hike
2 Intervention
3 IMF
4 Fiscal spending
5 Swap Lines
Now these are the options technically speaking we filled gap around 1.09 this morning, I expected 1.06 on table during open we hit lows of 1.03... Now, if we can hold the levels of these levels and perhaps go above 1.09 then no worries. However, if we carry on with these moves then things will get very interesting and keep an eye on the Gilt & FTSE!
Now it all looks very dismal when it comes towards headlines but actually there are coming amazing investment opportunities the prices we are getting and of course if you're in USA, what a great time for you to visit! For Candle stick traders - dragon fly!
Keep alert of what happens next, this week we have a lot speakers out of CB's and most importantly trade your plan!
Best,
TJ
Small inverse H&S in many stocksThis is just for St James's Place, but you'll find inverse head and shoulder patterns in a lot of stocks on the FTSE 100. For me, that means a reversal on the pullback, and this week for example, STJ is confirming the reversal with a break about the neckline and 200 EMA acting as support.
Emirate Integrated Next Target is AED 10.60 , +74% PROFITEmirate Integrated Trading in Side Waves or Box since 11 years. Expecting Breakout above the side waves and the Target is AED 10.60..... OFFERING the chance to make +74% Percentage Profit.
Support me; I want to Help People Make PROFIT all over the "World".
UK100 Extends Consolidation on Murky Monetary Policy OutlookUK100 has pulled back following its May record peak and has entered consolidation mode, as uncertainty around BoE’s policy path has taken hold. Although policymakers have pointed to a less restrictive stance ahead, there is no clarity around the timing of a pivot. The last inflation print did not help, as market pared back bets for a cut in August, since CPI persisted at 2% and the services component remained sticky.
This sustains risk for a breach of the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s rally, which would bring the 200Day EMA (blue line) in the spotlight, although deeper weakness does not look easy.
The central bank has hinted at lower rates ahead, price pressures have moderated and the economy exited its brief recession. Furthermore, the new government could usher in a much needed period of stability, while the change in listing rules cam reinvigorate the IPO market and boost sentiment.
UK100 has already defended the 38.2% Fibonacci multiple times, containing the correction to levels that reaffirm the upside potential. Bulls have the ability to reclaim 8,369 and eventually push for new all-time highs (8,488).
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FTSE 100 Inverted Cup-And-Handle Hints at Bearish BreakLike Germany's DAX that we highlighted earlier today, the UK's FTSE 100 is also on the verge of a bearish break down after a strong start to 2024.
The UK index has formed a clear inverted cup-and-handle pattern over the last 10 weeks. Akin to the "head" and "right shoulder" of a head-and-shoulders pattern, this setup shows fading buying pressure and a potential reversal of an established bullish trend if the neckline, in this case at 8110, gives way. In that scenario, the UK index could erase much of the Q2 gain and retreat toward the 200-day MA around 7800.
UK100 FTSE100 - ABC Correction Uderway?Hello Guys,
The yearly Candle is slightly Bullish - but we did not see a break on a closing base of the crucial 7900 area -> ATH.
A Retest of this area would constitute a Bullish setup - which I would be happy to be part of after the last rallye.
Q2 Close - Doji -> might see a consolidation phase from here with a sideways to down mentality - considering the recent gains the bulls had.
The monthly Bias is Bearish. A Bearish Engulfing Pattern (Although a small one) has been formed. The Stochastic confirms a Bearish Bias - not totally contradicting the higher Timeframes! So Bulls be prepared for some drop… Just an idea from my side. A Double Top at 8400 would be a strong sign of Bears being back.
-> For the bulls 7900 has to hold - for the bears 8400.
Thats all for now…
Thanks for reading
XAUUSD NFP ANALYSIS AND TRADE LEVEL 7-6-24 (2)XAUUSD NFP DAY ANALYSIS 7-6-24:
Spot Gold Prices and Market Movements
Current Trends: Spot gold prices have surged to $2,387, indicating hawkish market movements. However, with the opening of the UK session, a retracement to a low of $2,340.92 has already been observed.
Upcoming Data: Looking ahead, the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data on June 7, 2024, is highly anticipated. Gold trading is expected to be cautious, with high trade volumes and significant numbers.
Market Closures: On Monday, the markets in China and Australia, which have a substantial influence on gold prices, will be closed due to holidays.
Influencing Factors
US Dollar and Treasury Yields: Several factors, such as hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, have revived the demand for the US Dollar across the market. Treasury bond yields have rallied to multi-week highs.
GDP Data and Jobless Claims: Thursday’s revision of GDP data from 1.3% to an estimated 1.6% suggests that jobless claims might increase, which could put pressure on the Dollar. This could affect gold values, potentially pushing them back to the $2,380-$2,400 range.
Heading towards NFP show as of writing XAUUSD SPOT GOLD Prices are crashing to $2338.45 cmp now and as mentioned in our last NFP the factors influencing gold on NFP day
This helped gold price attempt a modest comeback, having incurred steep losses on Wednesday. A surprise uptick in the Core figure will reinforce delayed and less aggressive Fed rate cut expectations, providing extra legs to the US Dollar decline while smashing gold price.
Fundamental Which Might Affect XAUUSD:7-6-24
NFP Scenarios Friday:
• 150,000 or Less: Could trigger USD selloff, boosting gold.
• 200,000 to 250,000: May keep focus on inflation without major USD impact.
• 250,000 or More: Could lead to Fed rate cut, driving USD rally and gold drop
• Crucial jobs report for May. April’s NFP increase led to USD selling pressure.
Upcoming Influences:
The future of gold prices hinges on the forthcoming US Core PCE inflation data, due later in the American trading session on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index is anticipated to rise by 2.8% year-over-year in April, maintaining the same pace as observed in March.
If the Core PCE price index exceeds expectations, it could delay anticipated aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. This situation tends to strengthen the US dollar while exerting downward pressure on gold prices.
Conversely, if the Core PCE price index shows unexpected softness, it may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, potentially driving a further increase in gold prices.
Depending on forthcoming economic indicators, US inflation data might propel XAUUSD into the
$2288-$2250 Range or $2400-$2450 range
Technical Level and Analysis:
Buy at:$2323.69-$2306.23-$2286.23-$2261.91
Sell at :$2388.31-$2400.67-$2425.41-$2447.34
⚠️Warning: Do not risk more than 5% of your capital, you might lose your money
🔴Technical Status: XAUUSD: 📌
D1 SMA100-P (2260.90) Buy 🔺
H4 SMA100-P (2368.74) Sell 🔻
H1 SMA100-P (2347.88) Sell🔻
H4 SMA200-P(2351.01) Buy🔺
RSI(14): Status: Oversold
STOCHRSI(14): Status: Oversold
ROC: Status: Buy
William%R: Status: Buy
ATR(14): Status: Buy
SOC: Status: Neutral
⚠️Ongoing Geo-political Tensions: ‼️
Israel – Iran
Russia - Ukraine
US-China Relations
Middle East Instability
Taiwan-China Relations
FTSE on a 1-month correction. Is it over?Great display of compliance to technical dynamics by FTSE 100 (UK100) on our previous analysis (April 29, see chart below) as after hitting our 8350 Target it got rejected exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term +2 year Channel Up:
The corrective pattern broke yesterday below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 19, which technically opens the way for a test of the next Support level, the Higher Lows Zone.
As you can see, this Zone has been providing Support (and the most optimal buy entry) since the January 17 Low. As a result, as long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is holding, we will buy the next Higher Lows contact and target 8350 (Lower Highs projection similar to February 07 2024 and October 17 2023).
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Good results for B&MThe market seems to have recieved B&M's results positively. The fall in reported profit was expected.
Technically this week could provide a launching pad for it to break to the upside from its weekly 50 ema.
This is not a recommendation. Trade your own plan and make decisions based on your own research.
FTSE 100 - index prepares for bumper run to 10kThis is a macro outlook into late 2024.
On the above 3-month chart price action has been trading under resistance since 1999. A significant development has now occurred. That resistance after 22 years has confirmed as support.
Isn’t there a recession coming?
Since the UK imposed economic sanctions on itself in 2016 (A world first believe?) there is a growing realisation that extended dependancy on external resources will mean accepting higher and higher costs for everyday goods and services. Much like the US, the UK is about to enter a period of internal investment as it seeks to rediscover why protectionism does not work. You would think with so many history graduates in parliament..
The Macro outlook for the FTSE 100 is fascinating. Many many stocks are oversold in the FTSE 100. Not all. But a great many are with little to no ideas published on them. Identifying this trend a couple of years ago, the ideas on Rolls Royce and Centrica were published (attached below), now up 100 and 200%, respectively. However you will notice such performance does not apply equally across the index. My belief or rather hours of study informs us selecting the correct stocks will outperform over the next 2 to 3 years. Already have begun to identify them.
The TA..
On the chart we have:
1) Macro higher lows forming an ascending triangle.
2) Price action printed the first macro higher high in October 2017.
3) Inverse head & shoulders pattern with confirmation and 10k target.
4) The 3-month hammer candle. 10 days until it closes. IF it closes as is, it will be the shot that starts the race.
Is it possible the index corrects and crashes as everyone suggests? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: Investment
Risk: 30-40% exposure, you don’t want to sit this one out.
Timeframe: Long between now and end of year.
Return: 30%