FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 23/06/2023In the higher timeframe we are probably doing a pullback. Also the lower timeframe looks bearish. For today, we see an opportunity to long (against the main direction). A safer option is to wait for the pullback and then go short (with the main direction).
FTSE MIB Index
Short Ftse MibHi,
I shorted FtseMib at $24542. I'm reloading my short at this level $24225.
My Final targets at $21225 & $20250.
SL at $25200
Reasons: ECB raising rates, recession incoming: less production and less consumptions --> lower dividends.
FTSEMIB had a rally recently, that it's not driven by FA. So, I'm expecting a correction during the first semester of 2023.
In Addition, Italy will be the most exposed country to recession in the Euro zone. (recent IMF and ECB analysis claims).
Italy FTSE MIB index analysis: Draghi out, worst yet to come? Ten years after rescuing the euro with the iconic "Whatever it takes", Mario Draghi resigns as Italian Prime Minister, as the political parties that formed his majority no longer backed him.
The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election reigns supreme, and the political crisis in Italy risks putting further downward pressure on the Italian FTSE MIB ( IT40 ) index due to widening yield spread between Italian (BTP) and German Bunds.
The BTP-Bund spread, measured as yield difference between IT10Y and DE10Y is now at 2.34 percent (or 234 basis points). Historically, the FTSE MIB index has had a strong and inverse link with the yield spread between Italy and Germany. The FTSE MIB index saw increased volatility as a result of BTP-Bund spread spikes, since they reflect a gauge of credit conditions and country risk in Italy.
Draghi's departure along with the announcement of early elections with populist parties on the rise, could now push the BTP-Bund spread above 300 basis points, a level that has previously raised warning bells and resulted in significant sell-off in the FTSE MIB index.
Technically, the major trend remains bearish, and the 14-day RSI has been trading below the 50 level for the previous month and a half. However, the momentum indicator is not showing oversold conditions.
If the BTP-Bund spread increases beyond 300 basis points, a level that has previously raised concerns in Italy, the FTSE MIB might suffer a more serious selloff in the coming weeks, possibly breaking below the 20.000 mark.
FTSE 100 (UKX) | The best places to start a downtrend🔥Hello traders, FTSE 100 (UKX) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe.
All of these counts correspond to a larger wave that may have preceded a correction or triangle.
Based on counting, we are in a zigzag motion, and from this zigzag, waves a and b are over, and now we are inside wave c.
Wave c itself is formed inside a channel or a triangle, and from this pattern, waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 are completed, and now we are inside wave 5.
Wave 5, like the other waves of wave c, is in the form of three waves, and of these three waves, the last wave does not end, and the end of this wave is confirmed when the red circle or trend line or the bottom of the channels is broken.
We do not know the amount of correction at the moment, but it is possible to correct up to around 6550.
If the warning signal range is broken upwards, wave 5 is larger than wave 3, in which case we have to re-examine the waves.
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ridethepig | FTSEMIB📍 This diagram comes after the conversation with @lu1977hk, and is no more imaginative than the positional flows across the global equity board.
In Italian Equities the initial offensive targets for sellers come in at 18,466; 17,643 and 16,819 from a "fibs perspective". The connection of further downside in European and Global Equities is more or less the same sort of difficulty all round. Think of this like a composer trying to adapt the pianist to enter into the full orchestra. FTSEMIB shorts are another to add to the basket.
French Equities:
German Equities:
Eurostoxx:
The theme appears to be across the board on an epic level, with the whole series of European markets in a downwards move towards support. In reality, however, this manoeuvring shakeout is going to be strategically important from a positioning perspective for when we are loading the lows (we will cover that later in 2021).
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | Stoxx 50📌 Eurostoxx 50 is in question here and we have a good illustration of the ABC outpost. The main target 3,489 is still open for a test but a breakdown here will seal it for the year.
In a nutshell, this is a chart speculating that we are in the very early days of the "C" leg down.
It is the same opening move in play for German Equities, DAX:
This leg down in European Equities will be considered painful for the late buyers; the weakness of the real economy is shown via the following charts.
Unemployment Claims:
US 2's 5's:
Sharp speculators are adopting a wait-and-see policy, the fate of the moves in Eurostoxx depends on the range settlement. Sellers breaking through 3,200 will 'protect' the highs and because of the technical damage done, the flows will finally commit towards +/- 2,475.
As usual...thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎