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Bitcoin - Is FTX the Lehman Brothers of crypto?For weeks, we have warned investors about the unsustainable rally in the cryptocurrency market, and now, our price target of 17 500$ was finally hit. That comes to us as no surprise since we reiterated several times that no double bottom occurred and no primary trend reversal was on the horizon; already, in February 2022, we stated that no all-time high would happen this year. Instead, we made a compelling case for the bear market and have continued to do so while hitting one price target after another. With that being said, we continue to be bearish on Bitcoin and dismiss new calls about the market bottom. In fact, we want to remind our audience of articles we published over the summer about Celsius Network's insolvency and its contingency spreading over to other cryptocurrency institutions in the coming months. Now it seems FTX joined the list of troubling companies, with Binance announcing the buyout of its distressed assets. In our opinion, that is a particularly bearish development, further drawing a parallel between insolvencies in the banking sector in 2008 and now (but in the cryptocurrency sector). Unfortunately, though, we do not expect any improvement in the market with the FED pursuing tighter economic conditions and potential regulatory fallout (as so many cryptocurrency exchanges are going bust). Contrarily, we believe the bear market is far from over, and Bitcoin will mark new lows over time. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 15 000$. *In the latter part of this article, we would like to introduce a part of Bitwise Asset Management's presentation to the SEC in March 2019. (about fake volume)* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD, and yellow arrows indicate the latest technical developments. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all show signs of faltering. DM+ and DM- is bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Bitwise Asset Management presentation to the SEC in March 2019 In March 2019, Bitwise Asset Management (which created the world's first crypto index fund) made a presentation to the SEC about fake volumes on major cryptocurrency exchanges. In its research, the company analyzed volume and trade orders across 81 exchanges listed on Coinmarketcap. Additionally, it argued that the data reported by the website were wrong (despite Coinmarketcap being widely referenced in media - The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, etc.). Bitwise Asset Management demonstrated the difference between real and suspicious exchanges (ones that were likely to engage in trade washing with the purpose of inflating trading volumes) by highlighting differences in the order book and showing discrepancies within the information available in the trading interface. For example, some exchanges showed buy and sell orders with roughly the same trade sizes, the absence of round numbers in the order book (despite the natural tendency of humans to pick rounded numbers), the lack of small transactions, perfect even distribution of buy and sell orders, and so on. However, researchers went beyond these technicalities and looked at these exchanges' footprints in the real world. Subsequently, by comparing publicly available data, they found a substantial difference between the real companies and suspicious ones (lacking media exposure, followers, number of employees, etc.). Furthermore, they analyzed trade histograms and applied several alternative data assessment methods. The 227-page presentation also touched slightly on the subject of Tether, market regulation, market surveillance tools, and market manipulation. In its findings, the company stated that at the time, only 10 out of 81 exchanges showed the presence of real volume, including Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken, Bitstamp, BitFlyer, Gemini, itBit, Bittrex. In addition to that, researchers concluded that the total volume was merely 4.5% of the reported volume (by exchanges) between 4th and 8th March 2019. As if it was not enough, the study stated that nearly 30% of spot bitcoin volume was on U.S.-domiciled exchanges, compared to just 1% of reported volume. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
66
🔥🔥 Futures on ETH: The roof, the roof, the roof is on fireBitcoin, Ethereum and most other cryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday 08-11-2022 following Binance's announcement of its intention to acquire FTX, heightening concerns about liquidity in the industry. According to TradingView, the Total Market Cap - the global value of the entire crypto sector was down 15% on the past day, reaching $813 billion. Bitcoin lost 12%, Ethereum lost 17.5% and Dogecoin lost 25%. The FTX token crashed 84% and Binance's BNB also reversed a sharp previous 17% gain and turned negative, falling 6%. “To protect users, we have signed a non-binding Letter of Intent, planning to fully acquire FTX.com and help manage the liquidity crisis,” Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted. Zhao added that the deal is pending confirmation of his firm's ability to conduct due diligence on the FTX purchase and the exchange itself. A liquidity crisis plagued the FTX exchange at the beginning of the week amid a sharp decline in FTX Token. A CoinDesk report last week suggested that FTX-owned Alameda Research's balance sheet is heavily dependent on FTT, raising concerns that the two parts of the Bankman-Fried e mpire depend on illiquid cryptocurrencies rather than cash or other liquid assets. The liquidity problems of the crypto sector arose after the crash at the beginning of the year, which erased $340 billion of market capitalization and lowered ETH from $3,900 to $2,200, followed by the collapse of the “stable” Terra UST coin, forming a steady series of crashes in the industry, following behind the increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve against the backdrop of its fight against "indomitable inflation". The technical picture in ETH futures points to potentially increased risks of further erosion and disruption of the crypto market as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cycle nears its climax and logical conclusion before the end of 2022. The left scale shows market expectations for a Fed rate by the end of Q1'23. That is well above 10-year US Government Treasuries yield.
CME:ETH1!Short
by PandorraResearch
FTT - Long position - High Risk On this chart we can see the massive drop from FFTUSD as we all know FTX is in big trouble. So this trading setup is a really high risk setup. If we ignore the fundamentals, the indicators are showing that the price will go up. The indicators we used are the Bollinger Bands, RSI and stochastic. They´re all suggesting the price is oversold. So hopefully the price will have it´s last convulsion before it continues to go down. All further details are shown on the chart.
FTX:FTTUSDLong
by vf_investment
6
FTT a lot of FUD today. Short?Today , on crypto twitter there´s a lot of FUD regarding FTX exchange insolvency. CEO of Binance announced that they will be selling their ftt tokens (do your own research on twitter to learn more). If we see more FUD in the near term, it may result in a big drop. So far support holds. Short it only if key support breaks. Don´t forget to place a stop loss. Target: 10 $ Make a note that this trading idea is likely to happen only if we see more FUD regarding FTX insolvency or anything bad about FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried or alameda research.
FTX:FTTUSDShort
by vf_investment
15
BTC Bullish Move Up 1.7 to 4% 11 9 2022If you love the spot-on analysis done so far, please boost, share, comment, and follow for more. Analysis: Before we start, note that BTC is still very well bearish. On the 3 min charts, BTCUSDT 3 candle confirmation occurred at around $17,800 This implies a current oversold condition for BTCUSDT. This is a temporary pull-up. This is also why the lower end of the fib range is used as a target for the exit. 2-candle confirmation on the 5 minutes chart above the yellow moving average and a 1-3-candle confirmation above the lower white dotted fib line on the 3 min chart were also confirmed. The projected entry zone is anywhere between $17,700and $17,800. Based on this analysis, we should expect around 1.7% to 4% upward movement for BTC from this point. Baseline Information: The strategy used for this analysis takes into account the following factors: Timeframe: 3min and 5 min Symbols: BTCUSDT , ETHUSDT , BTCDOWN, and ETHDOWN Exchange: Binance Indicators: For obvious reasons, precise indicators names can not be provided, but this analysis makes use of VWAP , moving averages, and Fib charts. Chart Count: 8 Disclaimer: The information and publications are not meant to be or constitute financial, investment, trading, or other advice or recommendations.
Long
by ghost2019
1
Bitcoin struggles to find dip buyers amid FTX falloutThe sell-off in cryptocurrencies has gotten worse. FTT, the FTX token, is reeling after giving up as much as 88% of its value this week. Bitcoin dropped to a new low for the year after breaking the June low. Solana lost a third of its value today before bouncing off the lows. You get the picture. Cryptos have sold off sharply over the past couple of days on renewed liquidity fears in the industry. Troubled crypto exchange, FTX, is in talks to be rescued by Binance, after it halted withdrawals. Binance signed a nonbinding agreement on Tuesday to buy FTX's non-US unit. So, questions about the solvency of one of the world's largest crypto exchanges remain as there are no guarantees the deal will go through. For Bitcoin, this could not have come at a worse time, after struggling over the past several months to find its feet. Given Bitcoin's fresh breakdown after a lengthy consolidation, there's not much for the bulls to get excited over. They will now need to see a confirmed reversal signal before looking to potentially buy BTC or other coins. Indeed, things could get ugly, even though we have already seen a massive decline already. It is always better to have some sort of confirmation that prices have bottomed than keep trying to catch a falling knife. For me, Bitcoin now needs to reclaim the broken 20K level before turning positive on it again. For extra confirmation, a break above this week's high would probably mean game over for the bears. Failure to achieve this will keep the path of least resistance to the downside. Even if you are not involved in cryptos, the turmoil is definitely something to keep an eye on, as it may be an additional factor impacting risk appetite across the financial markets. By Fawad Razaqzada
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
R.I.P Solana.One of the biggest phenomenol of 2021, Solana is now in a terrible place. Predatory tokenomics, decreasing in TVL and activities, reduction in the number of quality dApps... And now, the biggest backers of Solana , FTX and Alameda Research had gone rekt. It will become a dead chain, like Neo, Waves, Near, Avalanche, Terra.... Bounce back is easy when price hit $14-15$. Since its a deadcat bounce, we are not sure about the target. Maybe somewhere between $22-$26. But in the mid-long term future, $SOL must reach the low zone of $5-$8 to attract buyers and liquidity. Especially when new monolith blockchains such as Aptos and Sui are around the corner for the next bull run. Good luck to $SOL holders
Short
by Chainslab_Analytics
3
InvestMate|Bitcoin why it drop₿ Bitcoin why it drop? ₿ Bitcoin today scored a slide from its local peak by a full 20% hitting new lows. ₿ In my last analysis, I hypothesised that the improving outlook for slowing interest rate hikes and the gradual strengthening of the dollar would help bitcoin to rise. ₿ This is likely to be the case in the long term. ₿ Looking from a fundamental point of view, Can be blamed for today's slide investors' fears about the insolvency of the FTX exchange and rumours that losses may have reached $6 billion. ₿ FTX fell victim to the run on the bank which is when a very large customer base wants to withdraw their money, contributing to the liquidity crisis In the first week of November, capital outflows amounted to $1.1 billion ₿ Binance has already come to the rescue by taking up proposals to buy the exchange, as part of the decision Binance will fully acquire the FTX exchange, in exchange for covering the cash shortfall. ₿ For traders like me, this is the perfect time to buy. ₿ From a technical point of view, it was a vehicle for the feet of all the people sitting in longs for a long time ₿ I don't think there is a chance of going even lower looking at the buy reaction that took place. ₿ I think we are in an ideal place to start the upside. ₿ If you want to know more reasons why I believe this I invite you to read my previous post on Bitcoin. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Long
by InvestMate
4
¡A Big Liquidity Gap!Introduce Hello trading community! As can be expected, the crypto market will suffer after the Binance sell-off. Not only that, but data on Alameda's balance sheet was also leaked, leading to a possible bankruptcy of the company. Fundamentals It is normal for a black swan with these characteristics to have an impact on all cryptocurrencies, including BTC, and the same way it happened with LUNA, with liquidations of positions and massive price drops. Additionally, the price of BTC found no buyers above 21080K, causing the price to break through this support and retreat to the 20K area. Today we have the US midterm elections and Thursday's expected CPI data. as two events that may bring volatility to the market. DXY is showing no bullish signs, and if it breaks below 110, it could fall to the support area between 108 and 109. FTT/USDT technical analysis On the daily chart, we can see a breakout of a descending triangle with a target between $10 and $12. There is no liquidity or related buying in this area. Also, the MACD has yet to complete its bearish development and the RSI 14 is at the 23 level. Good deal and profit! !
F
by CRYPTONIA5
🔥BINANCE ⚔️ FTX: how will this battle end❓Time to buy more❓🔥 Hi friends! CZ, Binance CEO, said that going to sell their FTT (FTX Tokens) worth about $600 million. The tokens will be sold for 2 months to not manipulate the market artificially. The reason for conflict is the possible bankruptcy of FTX. FTX reserves in ETH fell to a two-year low of 108,000 ETH from 400,000 ETH just three days earlier❗️ 🚩 Binance received FTT as part of its exit last year from an early position in FTX exchange, which they had held since 2019. FTX bought Binance's stake in the company for $2.1 billion in FTT and BUSD. ✅ Finally, this story could end badly for the bulls. FTX is a TOP 2 exchange and if it collapses, it will be much worse for BTC🔻 than the case of Terra Luna❗️ ✅ What happend to FTX and BNB in the 2-3 weeks? Here the 2 scenario for you to open the BEST trade👇 📊 THE FTX SETUPS 🔥 The most negative scenario will be the falling of FTX below the current lows at $15. It can trigger the massive sells off. Why the worst scenario for FTX can happen? Another risk of a further drain on FTT tokens if Alameda fails to prove that it did not sell tokens to the Bybit exchange (BitDAO). The BitDAO community has said it will vote on the fate of the FTT tokens it holds on its balance sheet unless Alameda provides proof that it continues to hold BIT tokens on its balance sheet as promised, rather than selling them into the market. 🚩 This would mean that FTX is trying by all means to get rid of it and sell all of its holdings and trigger the massive DUMP. 🔥 The positive scenario if FTX still hold BitDAO and the price return to the $22-29 value area, where the whales and retail accumulate FTX tokens. In this case we can assume that everything is okay and should try to find mid-term entry point. There are always a lot of possibilities after such shakeouts. 🚩 Just take a look on the volumes indocator on FTX. I leave for you 2 callout that have to show you retailers mentality. They bought a lot at the all-time highs and sells now in a HUGE loss. Remember this when the next bull market will be finished and you already make a lot of money. 📊 THE BNB SETUPS It was my scenario for BNB almost 1 month ago. BNB already make +36% and reach my targets. Take a look on the volume indicator. TThe volume is squeezing before the PUMP and it was the importnat precondition to opne a long. 🔥 Positive scenario for BNB would be a close above the $337 key level. In this case the price continue to grow. But if it close below the key level, it would be the false breakout and the price will fall to the closest support at $260-310 with high possibility. There we can wait for some price reaction and find the entry point to open a long/short. 🚩 Another rumor is the FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried "helped" the Luna to colapse and as far as you remember, Binance lost almost $1.5B in Luna. Is this another reason for CZ to remove the nearest competitor from the market? What is your opinion about this situation? Is it worth buying FTX now or will the price fall even lower? Write in the comments! 💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
5