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Fundamental Market Analysis for December 05, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen is attracting some buyers on Thursday, albeit without bullish conviction. Rising US bond yields are supporting the US dollar and lending support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders seem reluctant to make aggressive bets ahead of the release of the US NFP report on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from the weekly low reached the previous day. Signs that Japan's core inflation is picking up continue to fuel expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in December. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks, trade war fears and an overnight decline in US Treasury yields are contributing to the yen's gains. Meanwhile, Wednesday's remarks from a number of influential FOMC members, including Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, served as a tailwind for US bond yields and the US dollar (USD). This, along with the prevalence of risk sentiment, may curb significant strength in the safe-haven Yen and provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 150.00, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
AUDNZD Analysis - Bullish - Trade 07AUDNZD Analysis Overview --- 1. Seasonality AUD: Strong **buy** signal for the first week of December, suggesting upward momentum. NZD: Range-bound signal, indicating weaker performance compared to AUD. Seasonality Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 2. COT Report AUD: COT RSI : Decreasing from the top but still indicates bullish positioning. COT Index : Near the top, signaling strong institutional interest in AUD. Net Non-Commercial : Increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment. NZD : COT RSI : At the bottom (0%), but overall positioning is weak. COT Index : Bottomed at 0%, reflecting limited institutional support for NZD. Net Non-Commercial : Decreasing, suggesting bearish momentum. COT Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 3. Fundamental Analysis Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) : AUD : Increasing, pointing to improving economic conditions. NZD : Increasing, but weaker overall impact compared to AUD. Endogenous Factors: AUD : Mix to decreasing, but seasonal strength supports AUD’s buy case. NZD : Increasing, but weaker compared to AUD. Exogenous Factors : AUDNZD exogenous signal supports a buy AUD, sell NZD bias. Fundamental Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- 4. Technical Analysis RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence spotted on the 4H timeframe, signaling potential upward movement. Parallel Channel : Price is at the bottom of a bearish parallel channel, indicating possible reversal to the upside. Daily Support : Currently holding above a strong daily support zone, reinforcing the bullish setup. Technical Bias: Buy AUDNZD. --- Final Bias: Buy AUDNZD All factors—seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, and technicals—align in favor of a BUY setup for AUDNZD. This pair shows potential for upward movement, supported by strong economic and technical signals.
Long
by asadamalik
GBPUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 031. Seasonality The GBP is range-bound during the first week of December, while the USD exhibits bearish momentum. This suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook for GBPUSD based on seasonality. 2. COT Report The GBP's COT RSI is also range-bound, indicating no strong directional bias. 3. Fundamental Analysis LEI The GBP Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is decreasing, while the USD LEI is increasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and suggesting bearish pressure on GBPUSD. Endogenous Factors GBP endogenous factors are signaling a sell, adding to the bearish sentiment for GBPUSD. Exogenous Factors Exogenous indicators for GBPUSD are also showing a decrease, further supporting a bearish outlook. 4. Technical Analysis GBPUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently moving toward point D. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at point C is also coinciding with a 4-hour resistance, suggesting a potential reversal or slowdown at that level. Bias The combined analysis suggests a bearish bias for GBPUSD, with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 4-hour resistance offering a critical point to consider for potential short entry. Trade Plan: Entry: 1.26520 SL: 1.27273 TP: 1.25769
Short
by asadamalik
3
Buy NZD/JPY Wedge BreakoutThe NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 88.23, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 89.00 2nd Support – 89.45 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 021. Seasonality: During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish. 2. COT Report: The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD. 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD. Endogenous Factors These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias. Exogenous Factors Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend. 4. Technical Analysis: AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint. Summary The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential. Bias The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD. Trade Plan Entry: 0.64746 SL: 0.65130 TP: 0.64362
Short
by asadamalik
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 04, 2024 GBPUSDUS labor and payrolls data will dominate this week ahead of Friday's NFP. Pound/Dollar has been charting just south of the 1.2700 mark on Tuesday, holding rates in check as Pound Sterling traders struggle with a significant lull in meaningful UK economic data, while the broader markets prepare for a fresh batch of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data due out later in the week. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak early Wednesday. The head of the UK central bank will give a pre-recorded interview at a conference organized by the Financial Times. Nothing noteworthy is expected from the Bank of England Governor's speech, but GBP traders will be keeping their ears to the ground to make sure they don't miss any significant phrases the BoE Governor may announce. Wednesday will see the release of the US non-farm employment change data from ADP, which is expected to fall to 150k from the previous reading of 233k. In the US trading session on Wednesday, investors will also receive data on the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The US services PMI survey is expected to fall to 55.5 in November from 56.0 in the previous month. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell is also expected to speak on Wednesday. The Fed chief will answer questions from the audience during a discussion organized by the New York Times. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2700, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bajaj Housing Finance AnalysisNSE:BAJAJHFL Technical Analysis : You can get an Idea about the potential move from the given chart if the price follows the price action and market sentiment remain bullish. Fundamental Analysis : Key Financial Data: 1. **Share Price**: ₹129.56. 2. **Market Capitalization**: ₹1,07,899 crore. 3. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: ₹2.65. 4. **Revenue (FY2023-24)**: ₹7,617 crore (34% growth YoY). 5. **Profit After Tax (FY2023-24)**: ₹1,731 crore (38% growth YoY). 6. **Total Assets**: ₹81,827 crore. 7. **ROE (Return on Equity)**: 3.78%. ### Analytical Valuation Models: Using a combination of financial models to estimate the fair value: 1. **Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis**: Assuming moderate growth in free cash flows and using an estimated discount rate (WACC), the DCF valuation suggests a fair value of **₹140 per share**. 2. **Comparable Company Analysis (CCA)**: Analyzing peers like LIC Housing Finance and Housing Development Corporation, Bajaj Housing Finance appears fairly priced in the **₹125–₹135 range** based on its P/E and P/B ratios. 3. **Precedent Transactions Analysis**: Benchmarking against recent acquisitions in the housing finance sector, a fair value of **₹135 per share** is plausible. 4. **Dividend Discount Model (DDM)**: Given the company’s limited dividends, this model is less applicable as it skews conservative with a valuation below **₹100**. 5. **Gordon Growth Model (GGM)**: Factoring the modest dividend growth, the GGM valuation estimates **₹120 per share**. 6. **Financial Ratios**: - **P/E Ratio**: Trading at 7.11x earnings. - **Fair Value**: ₹130 per share based on earnings growth. 7. **Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) Ratio**: Considering robust profit growth (38% YoY), the PEG method supports a valuation of **₹140 per share**. 8. **Residual Income Model**: Using the ROE and cost of equity, the fair value aligns near **₹135 per share**. 9. **Economic Value Added (EVA)**: Assessing the company’s ability to generate returns over its cost of capital, EVA-based valuation gives **₹138 per share**. Summary Table: | **Model** | **Fair Value (₹)** | |----------------------------------------------|---------------------| | Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) | 140 | | Comparable Company Analysis (CCA) | 125–135 | | Precedent Transactions | 135 | | Dividend Discount Model (DDM) | 100 | | Gordon Growth Model (GGM) | 120 | | Financial Ratios | 130 | | PEG Ratio | 140 | | Residual Income Model | 135 | | Economic Value Added (EVA) | 138 | **Average Fair Value**: ₹133 per share **Current Price**: ₹129.56 **Upside Potential**: ~2.66% Conclusion: Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd. is currently trading close to its estimated fair value. While not significantly undervalued, it offers stability and modest growth potential, suitable for long-term holding in portfolios focused on housing finance or related sectors. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NSE:BAJAJHFL
by MrSharelock
Sell GBP/USD Triangle PatternThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.2650 Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2585 2nd Support – 1.2550 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
GBPAUD TO 1.9600 TODAY?Trading Plan 1. Baseline Scenario: - Macro-Fundamental Bias: Neutral to Dovish . The RBA is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, with markets anticipating a quarter-point rate cut by May 2025 and rates ending 2025 at 3.85%. This expectation is based on the need for more progress in reducing core inflation to the 2-3% target range. - Short Term Sentiment Bias: Bearish . The AUD is under pressure due to its role as a proxy for the Chinese yuan, influenced by US tariff risks and ongoing economic uncertainties in China. Additionally, Australia's current account deficit and weak export data contribute to the negative sentiment. 2. Risk Event Baseline : - Market Expectations : - Australian GDP (QoQ) Q3: Consensus at 0.5% (previous: 0.2%). - Australian GDP (YoY) Q3: Consensus at 1.1% (previous: 1.0%). - China Caixin Services PMI (Nov): Consensus at 52.5 (previous: 52.0). 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Negative Surprise : - Australian GDP: If GDP figures come in below expectations, it could exacerbate the bearish sentiment, leading to further AUD selling. - China Caixin Services PMI: If the PMI is weaker than expected, it could further pressure the AUD due to its correlation with the Chinese economy.
Long
by Midas_Macro
TradeCityPro | EURCAD Analysis Reaching the Daily Box Target👋 Welcome to the TradeCityPro channel! Let’s dive into the forex market and analyze this popular pair, outlining key triggers for trading this week. 🌍 Fundamental Overview EURCAD reflects the economic interplay between the Eurozone and Canada, influenced by: 🇪🇺 Eurozone Fundamentals (EUR): ECB Policies: The European Central Bank's monetary stance (hawkish or dovish) significantly impacts the Euro’s strength. 🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar Fundamentals (CAD): Oil Prices: CAD is sensitive to oil fluctuations due to Canada’s major oil exports. Rising oil prices typically strengthen the CAD. Geopolitical tensions, trade balances, and global risk sentiment often sway EURCAD. The Euro acts as a reserve currency, while the CAD is risk-sensitive. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame 1.4888 is the critical resistance, marking the top of the daily box (1.4888–1.5171). After breaking this level, the pair hit its target at 1.4556, a significant support level. The rejection at this resistance highlights its importance. The 1.4731 level, broken yesterday but reclaimed today, offers a potential trigger for entries. 📉 Short Position Trigger clear short trigger exists below 1.4731. Breaking this support could lead to further downside, targeting 1.4556. 📈 Long Position Trigger While momentum-driven long entries are possible if the RSI enters overbought, a more reliable entry comes from consolidating within the current range or forming higher highs and lows. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
by tradecitypro
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 03, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair is stuck at 1.0500 after the bullish recovery fizzled out. The pair was only able to squeeze out one green weekly candle after hitting multi-year lows around 1.0330. Euro\Dollar failed to push back from the 1.0600 mark as the short-term rebound fades. EUR/USD began another trading week by falling back to familiar short-term lows, failing an attempt to retrace to 1.0600 and pulling back to 1.0500, losing nearly eight-tenths of a percent on Monday. U.S. purchasing managers' index (PMI) data beat expectations but still came in below the 50.0 decline level, lending support to the safe-haven U.S. dollar. European economic data remains sparse in the first half of the trading week, although several European Central Bank (ECB) speeches will be on the agenda. Another week of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) looms over the markets, with US net job growth data due out on Friday, and plenty of preliminary labor and wage data to come during the week. ISM's US manufacturing PMI index rose in November, rising to a five-month high of 48.4 against a previous reading of 46.5, beating the forecast of 47.5. Despite the rise in the business expectations survey, the indicator is still in contraction territory below 50.0, meaning that most business operators still see a decline in overall activity in the coming months. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.0600, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell AUD/NZD Bearish ChannelThe AUD/NZD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.1005, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0962 2nd Support – 1.0944 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
USD/JPY - H1 - Bearish Flag The USD/JPY pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 150.80, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 149.20 2nd Support – 148.50 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
19
Buy GBP/AUD Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 1.9525 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.9578 2nd Resistance – 1.9606 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
16
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 02, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is declining against its U.S. counterpart at the start of a critical week and is pulling back from part of Friday's strong upward move to the highest level since Oct. 21. US Treasury yields are recovering amid US President-elect Donald Trump's reaction to the threat of 100 percent tariffs on BRICS countries. This, in turn, is helping to revitalize demand for the US dollar (USD) and is proving to be a key factor directing flows away from the lower-yielding yen. In addition, the bullish tone in equity markets further undermines demand for the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, lingering geopolitical tensions and rising forecasts of another interest rate cut by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in December should limit larger yen losses. Traders are also advised to refrain from aggressive directional bets and wait for important U.S. macroeconomic data this week, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI from this Monday. Consumer inflation data from Tokyo, the capital of Japan, released on Friday showed that core inflation is picking up and bolstered the case for another rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December. Also Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Saturday that the next interest rate hike is near as economic data is on track, although he would like to see what kind of momentum the fiscal 2025 Shunto program will create. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
AUDUSD TO 0.653000 TOMORROW??Trading Plan 1. Baseline Scenario : - Macro-Fundamental Bias Dovish. The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates, with a 66.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This expectation is driven by the Fed's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75% and ongoing efforts to support maximum employment and achieve the 2% inflation target. - Short Term Sentiment Bias : Dovish. Current sentiment is driven by the recent decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.2%, reflecting market expectations of further rate cuts and stability under the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. Additionally, the PCE inflation data aligning with expectations has reinforced the view that the Fed's current policy stance is appropriate. 2. Risk Event Baseline : - Market Expectations: - ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 47.7 | Previous: 46.5 - ISM Manufacturing Prices: Forecast: 55.2 | Previous: 54.8 3. Surprise Scenarios : - Negative Surprise: 7If the ISM Manufacturing PMI or ISM Manufacturing Prices data come in below expectations, it could lead to further USD selling pressure. This scenario supports long positions on AUD/USD, as the AUD is likely to strengthen against a weakening USD.
Long
by Midas_Macro
USD/CHF - H4 - Wedge BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days. FX:USDCHF Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.8689 2nd Support – 0.8619 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
17
TradeCityPro | EURNZD Ideal Short Setup for Next Week👋 Welcome to the TradeCityPro channel! Let’s analyze EURNZD as the forex market wraps up this week and prepare our triggers for next week’s positions! 🌍 Fundamental Overview Euro (EUR): Benefiting from the ECB's cautious tightening policies aimed at inflation control. Mixed economic data, such as weak industrial output, limits bullish momentum. New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Supported by stronger commodity prices and a resilient domestic economy. The RBNZ maintains a balanced policy outlook, strengthening the NZD further. The contrast between the ECB's inflation focus and the NZD's solid fundamentals tilts the bias toward NZD. Global risk sentiment and commodity trends are pivotal in determining price direction. 🕒 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis EURNZD is consolidating within a range between 1.7836 (support) and 1.8063 (resistance). Last week saw minimal movement, but this consolidation suggests the pair is gearing up for a breakout. The price didn’t reach the resistance this time and got rejected earlier. It is now testing the support level. 📉 Short Position Trigger If 1.7836 is broken with strong momentum, it would trigger a short position, targeting lower levels. 📈 Long Position Trigger If the 1.7836 support holds for an extended time, buyers could step in. A break above 1.8063 would confirm a long opportunity, especially if the price forms higher highs and higher lows in lower timeframes. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Short
by tradecitypro
1
Buy EUR/CAD Bullish ChannelThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a a well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.4795, This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.4874 2nd Support – 1.4912 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
5
GBP/USD - H4 Chart - Rising Wedge BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Rising Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Days. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 1.2695, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2862 2nd Support – 1.3006 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
TradeCityPro | EURCHF Analysis Rejection or Breakout?👋 Welcome to the TradeCityPro channel! Let’s analyze this forex pair in a simple way and set triggers and alerts to prepare for potential trades. 🌍 Fundamental Overview Euro (EUR): Backed by the ECB's cautious stance on inflation, though mixed economic data, like declining industrial output, limits its strength. Swiss Franc (CHF): Strong as a safe-haven currency, bolstered by geopolitical risks. The SNB maintains a hawkish monetary policy to ensure inflation stability. The monetary policy divergence between the ECB's mild tightening and the SNB's hawkish approach adds bearish pressure on EURCHF, favoring CHF during risk-off sentiment. ⏱ 4-Hour Timeframe The chart remains strongly bearish, with prices near historic lows, lacking significant support ahead. Fibonacci levels can help identify potential 4H supports. 📉 Short Position Trigger: After a rejection from the trendline, watch for a move towards the 0.92790 support. If 0.92790 breaks with momentum, short positions can target: 0.92440 - 0.92187 - 0.91866 📈 Long Position Trigger: While the chart shows bearish dominance, signs of trend weakness are emerging. However, long trades remain high risk in the current environment. potential long setup could occur after breaking the trendline and the 0.9335 resistance. For safer entries, wait for higher highs and higher lows to form, confirming a bullish shift before taking action. 📝 Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Short
by tradecitypro
1