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Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) fails to gain meaningful momentum during Tuesday's Asian session and languishes near the 34-year low reached against the U.S. currency the day before. Monday saw a report that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will focus less on inflation and shift to a more discretionary approach in setting monetary policy. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that after the abolition of negative rates in March, the central bank will revert to conventional monetary policy, which allows different data to determine the future path of rate hikes. This adds to the uncertainty in the BoJ's outlook for future rate hikes and continues to undermine the yen. In contrast, markets pushed back expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of better than expected US consumer inflation data for March. This suggests that the large rate differential between the two countries will persist for some time to come, which, along with the bullishness of the US Dollar (USD), serves as a tailwind for the Dollar-Yen pair. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell EURCAD ECB Interest RateThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing selling pressure and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level of the channel, ideally around 1.4700. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 1.4656: This represents the first level of support within the channel. 1.4628: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 1.4720. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
The USD in a ConundrumThe USD at the start of the year was trading near the 100 lvl but has managed to push above the 106 lvl in a little over a few months. If price is able to break out of the 107 lvl, there isn't to many resistances for the USD to break (the 108 could be one) and price might be able to hit the 114 lvl made in 2022. With the CPI data coming in a little higher then expected and traders/investors/analysts speculating that the FED will likely hold off on reducing rates (currently, FED Rate Monitoring tool is showing a 71.7% chance of FED holding rates), the elections coming up, conflicts in the Middle East/Europe/Asia, continued government spending (which keeps increasing), not enough government revenue which leads to more borrowing, this puts the FED between a rock and a hard place. Will the FED continue to hold rates and potentially push the economy to a recession (and a real one not one that did happen but supposedly didn't happen, back in 2022 Q1/Q2) or continue on with lowering rates, keep the economy going and potentially cause inflation to spike? Either way it is No Bueno. What is interesting is how commodities such as Gold/Silver/Oil are pushing up higher while the USD pushes up higher. These products are typical non correlated to each other, yet, currently they are. The USD shot up to 106. Silver from the start of the year pushed up from near 22 to now coming close to hitting 30 before pulling back to below 28. Gold pushed lower to below 2,000 in the beginning of February and pushed above 2,440 before pulling back to 2,360. Oil began near 70 and is trading above 85. So, when things return to the mean (non correlated), either the USD will take a hit or commodities will. The main things is how much of a hit will happen. Risk assets such as the stock market are finally taking a hit as the market just kept climbing and climbing, with the DJ Futures Market pushing past 40k and finally being cracked in the beginning of April. I am thinking that the USD might be able to hit the 108 lvl as other Central Banks are holding onto rates (just recently the ECB stuck to holding rates). If the FED holds onto current rates and other banks decide to reduce rates, the USD will skyrocket higher. If other banks decide to keep holding rates while the FED does, it will likely be whose economy can withstand the higher rates the longest. Protect yourselves with either reducing position sizing to withstand a large move, hedge, or do not be in a trade and see if price moves how you are speculating it. I have no position on the USD or in Forex itself (I'm tied up in other trades), but I am watching this because it is part of the plan I have when my other positions in other trades are completed. Y'all have some great trading out there.
INDEX:DXYLong
by DollarSaenz
Gold | News Review and Its Impact on Gold MarketUS Labor Market Data Preview - Friday, April 5, 2024 To analyze the market's reaction to today's NFP data, it's crucial to review past market events. The Federal Reserve needs two conditions to ease interest rates: 1) Continued downtrend in inflation 2) Weakening labor market. Therefore, today's NFP data is the most critical news release. Previous NFP Data: Non-farm payroll: 275K new jobs Average hourly earnings: 0.1% (4.3% y/y) Unemployment rate: 3.9% Based on these figures, 60% of economists and investors believe the Fed will start cutting rates from June. NFP Forecasts: Various forecasting models, considering ISM Services Index, Manufacturing, ADP, and 4-week moving average of jobless claims, predict NFP to be between 200K and 250K jobs. Crucial Data Point: Contrary to popular belief, today's key data is not the total NFP figure but rather the change in the number of employed persons (Employed) last month and the number of people who wanted to be in the labor force but could not find a job (Unemployed). Last month, the number of employed persons decreased by 184K from January, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 334K, leading to a 0.2% rise in the unemployment rate. Technical Analysis for Gold: Personal Opinion: I am bullish on gold, and today's news is likely to support gold prices. Expected Price Movement: I anticipate a move to the 2285 support level followed by a strong upward move towards 2305 and 2330. Key Resistance: 2305 - 2310 and 2325 - 2330 Key Support: 2282 - 2285 and 2272 - 2277 Please note: This trend could change based on today's news. Additional Considerations: Inflation: If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could pressure the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting gold's upside potential. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions could boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Real Interest Rates: Rising real interest rates could make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. Overall, today's NFP data and other economic indicators will play a significant role in shaping gold's short-term direction. Traders should carefully monitor market news and data releases to make informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by uPaSKaL
29
Gold | How far can the uptrend continue? Given the strong uptrend of gold and breaking the resistance at 2350, we can expect the next price ceiling to be in the range of 2370 - 2375, and gold to move towards this range. Key resistances: 2350 2370 - 2375 Key supports: 2325 - 2330 2300 - 2305 Fundamental: Wall Street Awaits Earnings Reports, Oil Eyes Global Demand, CPI and Central Bank Meetings in Focus The second quarter of 2024 got off to a rough start for Wall Street. Strong US economic data and surprise nonfarm payrolls results led market participants to reassess rate hike expectations, compounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that stoked some short-term concerns. Oil prices hit their highest level in five months and oil continued its record-setting rally despite the dollar not strengthening. Continued conditions could complicate the Fed's role in inflation and push it to the sidelines. April will focus on the next earnings season in the US to see if corporate revenue recovery since late last year has more room to run. As usual, earnings season kicks off with reports from big US banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Friday the 12th. This week will also see inflation data from the US and China including consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI) prices, central bank meetings from Europe, Canada and New Zealand, US corporate earnings reports, UK GDP and more in focus for investors. Inflation and Fed Meeting Minutes Again Under Investor Microscope The most important US event this week will be inflation data for March with consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI) price indexes. Inflation has stubbornly stayed hot in recent months, with housing especially sticky and surging insurance costs greatly impacting core inflation readings. Uncertainty remains but prices paid in the ISM, NFIB prices and employment cost index all indicate pricing pressures should meaningfully abate through the year. However, the Fed is concerned about some metric influences like one-off annual insurance hikes, rent increases and more that could further cloud the outlook. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% monthly and 3.7% yearly in March, down 0.1% from prior periods in both measures. Headline CPI is seen easing to 0.3% monthly and rising to 3.4% yearly, a 0.2% increase from prior. PPI is also expected to show easing pressures. Overall, hotter-than-expected inflation could push price-setters away from a June Fed rate cut and hot inflation amid tight labor markets would reinforce dollar strength.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by uPaSKaL
11
Buy GBPCAD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potentially interesting situation with a bullish channel breakout pattern. Potential Long Trade : Entry: Above the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.7175 after confirmation. Target Levels: 1.7244: This represents the height of the channel, measured from the apex (highest point) to the base (opposite trendline), projected upwards from the breakout point. 1.7272: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.7145. This helps limit potential losses if the price fails to break out and reverses downwards. Thank you
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
Yearly 14 PERCENT CAGR IS OLD SCHOOL get 6 percent CMGR -monthlyInd Renewable Energy Limited Formerly Known as Vakharia Power infrastructure Limited), a public company was incorporated on September 9, 2011 under the Companies Act, 1956. The Company is principally engaged in the business of Roof Top Solar Plant. looking for 88 % ROI in this share indrenew in next 88*2 days Can add upto 14.6 rupees can double its market cap from here onwards currently management facing compliance and corporate issues as of now but not for long time it will stay spot 18 date 9 april 2024 mail for acuite investment methodology vijay at vijaymarketingg . com thank you
BSE:INDRENEWLong
by EasyLife_Advisor
4
Buy CHFJPY Triangle BreakoutThe CHF/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potentially interesting situation with a triangle breakout pattern. Potential Long Trade : Entry: Above the broken resistance line of the triangle, ideally around 167.60 after confirmation. Target Levels: 168.75: This represents the height of the triangle, measured from the apex (highest or lowest point) to the base (opposite trendline), projected upwards from the breakout point. 169.18: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the triangle, ideally around 167.45. This helps limit potential losses if the price fails to break out and reverses downwards. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
Dogecoin - Facts & targets analysisWe see following facts: 1) Facts for go down: The probability that we will go down is higher than vice-versa. You can see this on 2W time frame; According to Elliot waves principle the Triangle appears in the wave 4 position, more frequently than vice-versa. Moreover the target of this triangle formation is already reached; DXY is rising, there are prerequisites for continuation of this movement; 2) Facts indicating go up probability: Every time when Dogecoin SMA 280 & 938 crossed each other we have seen pump! The first pump was in 2016 Aug +9000%. The second pump was in 2020 Nov +27000%. In case of confirmation of the crossing we could expect growth comparable to the first pump. In case of go down the bottom is around 0.008; I personally do not care which scenario will work out, because ready for both scenarios, by managing orders volume & risk/profit ratio. Hope you too. Good luck everybody and have massive profit.
CRYPTO:DOGEUSD
by dogecoin_chain
Today Gold Target? Check Analysis Since gold caught the uptrend, it has not been a bearer. On Friday, when there was NFP news, gold was running at 2295. Subsequently, it fell to 2281 before catching an uptrend, closing at 2328 when the market closed. Now, as the market opened, gold initially dipped to 2304 before regaining momentum. Currently, it is in an uptrend, reaching 2355. We believe that gold may bounce back from 2325, with our target set at 2355. Additionally, if it breaks 2325, it could drop to 2304, with our buy target remaining at 2355 or 2375. 🔑 Remember, money management is crucial. Before employing our analysis, please conduct your own research and refrain from investing more than 2% of your portfolio. 📈 Our resistance levels are spotted at: - 2355.00 - 2375.00 📉 And our support levels are set at: - 2325.00 - 2203.00 Stay tuned for further updates and trade smartly! 📊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BigtimeFx
Understanding the Differences Between Stock Market and Crypto P2Thank you very much for your support, as I told when we will get 20+ likes on Part 1, than I will make Part 2. Here you get the summary of each, with the other points: 10. Market Infrastructure: The infrastructure supporting traditional stock markets, including trading platforms, clearing systems, and market data providers, is well-established and interconnected, whereas the infrastructure for the crypto market is still evolving and fragmented, with multiple competing platforms and protocols. 11. Market History: Traditional stock markets have a long history dating back centuries, with well-documented market cycles and economic trends, whereas the crypto market has a relatively short history, with significant price movements driven by technological developments and market speculation. 12. Regulation of Investment Products: Traditional stock markets offer a wide range of investment products, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), all subject to regulatory oversight, whereas the crypto market primarily offers cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets with varying degrees of regulatory clarity. 13. Market Correlation: Stocks and traditional financial assets often exhibit correlations with broader economic indicators such as GDP growth and interest rates, whereas the crypto market may demonstrate correlations with factors such as Bitcoin dominance, market sentiment, and technological developments. 14. Market Participants: Traditional stock markets attract a diverse range of participants, including retail investors, institutional investors, hedge funds, and pension funds, whereas the crypto market has a more diverse participant base, including retail traders, technology enthusiasts, speculators, and early adopters of blockchain technology. 15. Market Fragmentation: The stock market operates as a unified marketplace with standardized trading rules and regulations, whereas the crypto market is fragmented across multiple exchanges, each with its own trading protocols, liquidity pools, and pricing mechanisms. 16. Market Impact of News Events: News events such as corporate earnings releases, economic data reports, and geopolitical developments have a significant impact on stock market movements, whereas the crypto market may react more strongly to news related to regulatory developments, technological advancements, and adoption trends. 17. Market Efficiency: The efficiency of traditional stock markets is supported by established trading mechanisms, liquidity providers, and market makers, leading to relatively stable price discovery and reduced arbitrage opportunities, whereas the crypto market may experience inefficiencies due to lower liquidity, market manipulation, and regulatory uncertainties. Stock Market: Pros: Stability: Stock markets have a long history and are generally stable investment options. Regulation: They are heavily regulated, providing a level of security for investors. Diversification: Investors can choose from a wide range of stocks across various sectors and industries. Dividends: Many stocks offer dividends, providing a source of passive income. Access to Information: There is a wealth of financial information available for analysis and research. Cons: Limited Trading Hours: Stock markets operate during specific hours on weekdays, limiting trading opportunities. High Entry Barriers: Some stocks may require a significant investment, making it inaccessible for small investors. Market Volatility: While generally stable, stock markets can still experience significant volatility during economic downturns or market crises. Slow Settlement: Settlement times for stock transactions can take several days, delaying access to funds. Limited Accessibility: Access to certain stocks may be restricted based on geographical location or regulatory requirements. Crypto Market: Pros: 24/7 Trading: Cryptocurrency markets operate 24/7, allowing for round-the-clock trading. Accessibility: Anyone with internet access can participate in the crypto market, promoting inclusivity. Potential for High Returns: The crypto market has seen explosive growth, offering the potential for high returns on investment. Decentralization: Cryptocurrencies operate on decentralized networks, reducing dependency on centralized authorities. Technological Innovation: The crypto market is at the forefront of technological innovation, with developments in blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi). Cons: Volatility: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and can experience rapid price fluctuations. Lack of Regulation: Regulatory uncertainty in the crypto market can lead to investment risks and market manipulation. Security Risks: Cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets are susceptible to hacking and cyberattacks. Limited Adoption: Despite growth, cryptocurrencies still face challenges in widespread adoption as a mainstream form of payment. Complexity: Understanding cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology can be challenging for newcomers, leading to potential investment mistakes. Summary: Both the stock market and the crypto market offer unique opportunities and challenges for investors. The stock market provides stability, regulation, and a wide range of investment options, while the crypto market offers accessibility, potential for high returns, and technological innovation. Deciding which market is better depends on individual preferences, risk tolerance, and investment goals. Diversification across both markets may provide a balanced approach to building an investment portfolio.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by smarttrader012
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 04, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during Thursday's Asian session and looks to consolidate the previous day's modest rebound from around multi-decade lows. The increasing threat of intervention from the Japanese authorities continues to provide some support for the currency. In addition, the overnight drop in the US Dollar (USD) to near one-week lows contributed to the USD/JPY pairing near 152.00. A report released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that growth in the US services sector continued to lose momentum in March. This raises the stakes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates in June, which triggered a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and had a strong impact on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious approach to further policy tightening suggests that the gap between US and Japanese rates will remain wide. This, along with fresh gains in stock markets, should contain a significant strengthening of the yen and limit the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Thus, the main focus will be on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Trading recommendation: Trade in the 151.200-152.000 channel on a rebound from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell GBPNZD Triangle Breakout The GBP/NZD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a triangle pattern. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level of the triangle, ideally around 2.1100. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the following levels: 2.1011: This represents the height of the triangle, measured from the apex (highest or lowest point) to the base (opposite trendline), projected downwards from the breakout point. 2.0970: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. These targets act as potential support zones that could see selling pressure. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line (depending on the triangle type) of the triangle, ideally around 2.1150. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
Gold next target? check forecast We have seen that gold is continuously bullish and its momentum is not going down, so now we think that gold has gone as high as it was supposed to go, maybe it can go up a little more to 2258 or 2265. May then continue to go down and meet our targets of 2234 and 2188. 🔑 Remember, money management is crucial. Before employing our analysis, please conduct your own research and refrain from investing more than 2% of your portfolio. 📈 Our resistance levels are spotted at: - 2268.00 📉 And our support levels are set at: - 2234.00 - 2188.00 Stay tuned for further updates and trade smartly! 📊
FX:XAUUSDShort
by BigtimeFx
AAPL: Time for PutsFirstly I'm a huge NASDAQ:AAPL fan when it comes to their products, however, I believe the time has come to buy some Put Options. Trend Analysis Utilizing the 1D chart, I found a double-top "M" pattern and at the time of this idea we are currently sitting a little under the second peak. The descent can be steep according to a macro-Fibonacci tool where the $125 share price rests around a 50% retracement level. Support at this level has been strong since May 2021. I used two micro-Fibonacci tools to identify areas of minor support during the descent. I believe the use of both is necessary as some traders will be using the uptrend retracement (green) and others will use the downtrend retracement (red). I believe that there is a good possibility for reversal at the 61.8% downtrend Fib retracement as this level has been a key area of support and resistance since August 2021; see image below. It goes without saying that by the time the share price reaches this level, the double top pattern will already be considered valid so it's my opinion that a catalyst in the form of bad news will be required to see further declines. Fundamental Analysis According to the Q3 Earnings Call (Annual Report), Apple has only utilized 17.67% of its $90 billion dollar share repurchase program authorized in May '23. According to a later footnote, Apple repurchased $76.6 billion of its shares during 2023 which leads me to believe there is either a mistake in the report or that most of the $76.6 billion satisfies an earlier repurchase program. On the 10K form, see bottom of page 18 - note 1 and bottom of page 20. Cash on-hand has increased by 27% since September 2022. Current ratio (current assets/current liabilities) is 0.99 which is concerning from a financial standpoint. However, this is an improvement from September 2022 when its current ratio was 0.88. Retained earnings, while still in a deficit, has improved by 93% since September 2022. These deficits were self-inflicted as Apple spent most of its net income on stock repurchases the last three years. Sentiments I didn't find anything that changed my opinion on the current market trend for Apple. While the company does appear to be improving it is still in a rough spot. The aggressive repurchasing of its own stock and placing itself into a deficit doesn't make sense to me as a long-term plan. I understand that companies will do this to raise their EPS and benefit their shareholders but it also says that the company doesn't plan on expanding in the foreseeable future.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Shepherd_Investor
1
US OIL (WTI) MARKET ANALYSE. (READ CAPTION)Technical Analysis: Incorporate key trading indicators such as the double line resistance breakout, pullback support, and demand zone analysis to assess price movements in the US Oil market. Identify channels and trendlines to spot potential breakout or breakdown points, confirming with volume and momentum indicators like relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Additionally, monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for its impact on oil prices, considering its inverse correlation. Stay vigilant for opportunities at support and demand zones, utilizing these levels for entry and exit points in your trading strategy. If you like this idea please support with boost comment and follow thanks for with us.
TVC:USOILLong
by Alexview009
Next Gold Target 2090 or 2350? Check Analysis📣Hello Mates! We have seen that gold is continuously bullish and its momentum is not going down, so now we think that gold has gone as high as it was supposed to go, maybe it can go up a little more to 2280 or 2300. May then continue to go down and meet our targets of 2150 and 2090. 🔑 Remember, money management is crucial. Before employing our analysis, please conduct your own research and refrain from investing more than 2% of your portfolio. 📈 Our resistance levels are spotted at: - 2266.00 📉 And our support levels are set at: - 2150.00 - 2090.00 Stay tuned for further updates and trade smartly! 📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BigtimeFx
1
Gold next move? check analysis 📣Hello Mates! We have seen that gold is continuously bullish and its momentum is not going down, so now we think that gold has gone as high as it was supposed to go, maybe it can go up a little more to 2255 or 2265. May then continue to go down and meet our targets of 2223 and 2190. 🔑 Remember, money management is crucial. Before employing our analysis, please conduct your own research and refrain from investing more than 2% of your portfolio. 📈 Our resistance levels are spotted at: - 2266.00 📉 And our support levels are set at: - 2223.00 - 2190.00 Stay tuned for further updates and trade smartly! 📊
FX:XAUUSDShort
by BigtimeFx
1
📈Mastering Stock Selection:A Journey to Long-Term Wealth💰Part1Interested in selecting high-quality stocks and growing your wealth through long-term investing? Today, I'll guide you through effective stock selection methods, including the top-bottom and bottom-top approaches. Remember, as Warren Buffett famously said, "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." 💼📈 Let's start with the top-bottom approach. First, you choose an economy, such as Indian, US, or UK. Next, select a sector within that economy, like Financial Services, IT, or Pharma. From there, narrow down to an industry within the sector, such as AI, Clean-technology, or Hardware. Finally, choose a company within the industry. Don't worry if it seems complex – I'll provide examples and guidance throughout. 💡🔍 Conversely, the bottom-top approach flips this order. We start by selecting a company, then move up to its industry, sector, and finally, the economy. 💼🔄 Let's put theory into practice with the top-bottom approach: (a random example) 1. Choose India as the economy. 2.Select the IT sector for its promising future. 3. Opt for AI as the industry due to its potential. 4. Select Infosys as a company. Now, it's your turn! Share examples of top-bottom or bottom-top approaches in the comments for practice. 💬💡 In the upcoming discussions, we'll delve into the fundamentals of sector, industry, and company analysis. Don't worry—I'll explain everything from market cap and cash flow to return on equity (ROE). 📊✨ Target of likes (boosts): 25+ (if we achieve our target than I will make Part 2) 🎯🚀 Follow for more such ideas & learning content! 🔍
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by smarttrader012
1
Gold | Ready for a big surge or a big drop? 📈📉Gold is currently moving in a descending triangle. Key support: 2144 - 2149 Key resistance: 2158 - 2163 Gold is waiting for interest rates to come in and provide a 200-400 pip fluctuation! 💰 Fundamental analysis: Numbers above the expected limit of inflation in the United States last week confirmed that price pressures persist and the final stage of reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains a challenging process. This led to a 25 basis point increase in the yield of U.S. two-year Treasury notes during the week and the 10-year Treasury yield crossing the 4.30% threshold. However, U.S. key indicators, with some arguments suggesting that the previous adjustment to reduce the central bank's interest rate hike delay until June 2024 would be sufficient, managed to stay on their short-term consolidation path. But on Friday, the tables turned and the S&P500 dropped from an all-time high, as equity bulls preferred to take a cautious stance ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting in anticipation of possible hawkish tones from the Fed. The upcoming week will be a capybara week for central banks, with the Federal Reserve garnering more attention than others. The central banks of Japan, Australia, Switzerland, and the Bank of England are among the central banks that will make their latest decisions on interest rate changes this week. Additionally, in the UK, February inflation data will be in focus ahead of the central bank's meeting as significantly different results from expectations could have a considerable impact on the Bank of England's decision on Thursday. Today, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate data for China in February and January were released. Despite continued weakness in China's real estate sector adding increasing pressure on the economy and confidence in the country's economic outlook, China's industrial production and retail sales surpassed expectations from January to February, marking a strong start for 2024 and providing relief for policymakers. Today's data results, following better-than-expected recent exports and consumer inflation indicators, reinforce Beijing's hopes of achieving what analysts describe as the ambitious goal of 5% gross domestic product growth in the current year. 📈🌏 What is the most likely scenario for the Federal Reserve meeting? 🤔 The Federal Reserve, in its January meeting, kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% for the fourth consecutive session. The bank's statement indicated that while the option of lowering interest rates is still on the table, the Federal Reserve is not in a rush to implement this option and wants to ensure more certainty that inflation is moving steadily towards 2%. It is expected that in Thursday's meeting, the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% and release a similar statement to the January one, reiterating its previous positions. Therefore, such a procedure will draw attention to the updated dot plot chart, which will be the focal point of the March monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. If only two participants adjust their forecasts, the midpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve expects to have only two interest rate cuts, much less than the seven cuts the market had predicted in the second week of January for 2024. The occurrence of such a scenario will support the dollar. 💵 The S&P Global PMIs and Jerome Powell's speech, market drivers post-Thursday On Friday, the initial estimates of the S&P Global PMIs will attract investors' attention. Forecasts suggest a contraction in both manufacturing and services sectors in March. If the results exceed expectations, it could provide some support for the dollar index. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, will be scrutinized on Friday, with not much time gap from Thursday's meeting. There is a slight possibility that Powell's positions on Friday may differ significantly from the Fed's stance on Thursday. However, if Powell's positions align with the updated dot plot and the Fed's stance, it will deepen the created volatility; otherwise, it will adjust the fluctuations arising from Thursday's results. 📈🔍🗣️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by uPaSKaL
64