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GOLD → Consolidation. Which way will the momentum go? XAUUSD in consolidation phase. The market is nervous because of misunderstanding of further actions in anticipation of news. What to expect and what can happen? The US labor market is stronger than expected, but the dollar remained cold amid expectations of more important news. At the moment, there is a 75% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut. But, the dollar is still in demand due to the unstable geopolitical background. At the moment gold depends on the US employment data, ADP and Powell's speech Bad employment data may increase the probability of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. And vice versa. But, this background is unlikely to create a medium-term potential for gold..... Also, in the perspective of NFP... Technically, gold is in consolidation and the price exit from the flag boundaries may be accompanied by a strong impulse. The probability of a further fall is a little higher... Resistance levels: 2651, 2660 Support levels: 2636, 2618 Gold continues to test the support 2636, which only increases the probability of a breakdown and further fall. But on the background of the news, the price may test the resistance before a further fall
FX:XAUUSD
by MarketAnalyzar
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 13, 2024 USDJPYFading hopes of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December are putting the JPY bulls on the defensive. Higher U.S. bond yields are supporting the dollar and putting pressure on the low-yielding yen. The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to defend against its U.S. counterpart, lifting the USD/JPY pair closer to 153.000 or a new monthly peak during the Asian session on Friday. Recent media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which in turn continues to undermine the Yen. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be less dovish continue to support rising US Treasury yields and put further pressure on the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released today showed that business confidence of Japan's major manufacturers improved slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024. This fits well with the central bank's plans to gradually raise interest rates and could deter yen bears from aggressive bets. In addition, lingering geopolitical risks and concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans should help limit losses for the safe-haven yen ahead of next week's key central bank events - the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 153.000, trading mainly with Buy orders.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPJPY BUYS TO 194.600?Trading Plan for GBP BASELINE 🎯 Current short term sentiment bias and upcoming risk events (previous # & consensus expectations) that can impact said sentiment Current Short-Term Sentiment Bias : - The British pound is trading around $1.276, near a one-month high, driven by expectations of a cautious BoE. - Investors are focused on upcoming UK economic data, particularly GDP and manufacturing production for October, which are expected to show modest growth. Upcoming Risk Events : - GDP (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.1%, Previous -0.1% - GDP (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 1.6%, Previous 1.0% - Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.8% - Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.3%, Previous -0.5% - Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous -1.0% - Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct): Consensus 0.9%, Previous -0.7% - Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Oct): Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.1% SURPRISE ⚡ What outcome of the risk event will surprise the markets based on the baseline Positive Data Surprise : - Outcome: If the data beats expectations across the board, it will likely reinforce market expectations of no rate cuts next week. - Market Reaction: Continued pound strength. - Trade Pair: GBP/JPY - The yield spread between UK and Japan bonds suggests potential upside for this pair. Negative Data Surprise : - Outcome: If the data misses expectations, the pound could weaken as investors speculate on a more dovish BoE outlook. - Market Reaction: Pound weakness. - Trade Pair: GBP/NZD - The yield spread between UK and New Zealand bonds favors a downside move in this pair. BIGGER PICTURE 🌐 Does this outcome changes the larger macro-fundamental bias Macro-Fundamental Bias: - Current Expectation: The BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.75% at its next meeting on December 19. - Future Outlook: Governor Andrew Bailey has hinted at gradual rate cuts starting in 2025, with markets pricing in three 25-basis-point cuts by the end of next year. - Implications: A positive data surprise would support the current expectation of no immediate rate cuts, while a negative surprise could lead to speculation about a more dovish stance from the BoE.
by Midas_Macro
Gold Trading Idea: Is a New ATH on the HorizonGold prices took a breather on Thursday, snapping a four-day rally and dropping over 1%. This pullback comes amid mixed US economic data, with softer-than-expected job reports and higher producer prices creating uncertainty. Profit-taking ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting further pressured prices, with XAU/USD currently trading around $2,684. Fundamental Insight Despite the recent dip, Gold remains a safe haven asset in the face of geopolitical tensions and central banks’ dovish monetary stance. The European Central Bank’s third consecutive rate cut and expectations of the Federal Reserve reducing rates by 25 basis points next week could set the stage for renewed upside momentum. As we edge closer to year-end, political tensions and easing monetary policies globally could fuel Gold’s potential to challenge new all-time highs. Technical Outlook On the charts, Gold respected the $2,720 key level, forming a double-top pattern reminiscent of a "batman face." Key levels to watch are: Resistance: $2,720 Support: $2,689 and $2,610 A break above $2,720 could signal a bullish continuation, while a dip to $2,610 may offer a strong buying opportunity for long-term traders. Stay tuned for more trading insights and strategies!
TVC:GOLD
by InwardTrader
1
Sell EUR/USD Channel BrekoutThe EUR/USD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0482 2nd Support – 1.0445 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
32
Will the better-than-expected employment data revert AUD's trend+ Macro theme: The RBA kept rates at 4.35%, sounding more optimistic about inflation and hinting at future cuts. But Thu's job numbers might spoil those plans—Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, showing a surprisingly strong labor market. This hot jobs data could push back those early 2025 rate-cut forecasts many have been making. + Technical theme: - AUDUSD found support and bounced above 0.6365. The price is within the descending channel and below both EMAs, indicating a bearish momentum persists. - If AUDUSD extends its decline below 0.6365, the price may retest the subsequent support at 0.6300, confluence with the 100% level of Fibonacci Extension. - On the contrary, if AUDUSD surges above 0.6474, breaking its descending channel and EMA21, the price may retest the following resistance around 0.6560. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
by DatTong
XAUUSD BULLISH ANALYSIS (READ CAPTOIN)Hi taders! Share your opinion regarding this chart. Current price: 2695 Currently gold is being supported by buyers as all d1 candle of this week have created bullish candles. After temporary retracement market has returned to it's bullish trend. Rejection of h4 candle is another indicator of a strong bullish market. If gold breakouts the price 2711 which is our demand zone then market will go further high up to 2732. Key points: Support zone : 2690-2680 Resistance zone 2710-2722 Please like comment thank you support
TVC:GOLDLong
by LindaFxTrading
1
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights. Technical Setup Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade. Trade Plan Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level). Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection). Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit). Risk/Reward Insights This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips. Disclaimer Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed. Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
Short
by InwardTrader
AUDUSD ShortAUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action aligning with technical and fundamental signals. Traders are watching US PPI data today for potential market-moving insights. Technical Setup Using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Fibonacci retracement, the 0.71–0.79 Fibonacci zone stands out as a key resistance level, supported by a Fair Value Gap (FVG) from the last swing high. Price is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, creating an opportunity for a short trade. Trade Plan Entry: 0.7120 (near the 0.75 Fibonacci level). Stop Loss: 0.64729 (above the 0.79 Fibonacci level for risk protection). Take Profit: 0.63378 (targeting below the Fair Value Gap for a clean exit). Risk/Reward Insights This setup offers a Risk/Reward Ratio of 1:3, with a risk of 64.7 pips to potentially gain 192.1 pips. Disclaimer Trading involves significant risk. Always trade with a clear plan, implement stop-loss orders, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. This analysis is not financial advice—trade responsibly and stay informed. Follow for more actionable trading insights and strategies!
Short
by InwardTrader
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 11, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD lost around 0.2% on Tuesday, declining for the third consecutive day and hitting 1.0500 again, as the euro's bullish near-term recovery comes to naught. Ahead of the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure due for release on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting on Thursday, traders once again adopted a cautious stance. Wednesday's CPI inflation index will be one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting in 2024. Signs that inflation progress has stalled could kill hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18. With the current rate cut on Wednesday, U.S. CPI inflation for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y from the previous reading of 2.6%, while core annual CPI is expected to remain at 3.3%. Traders estimate the probability of the last quarter-point rate cut this year at 85%. The ECB's latest rate meeting is scheduled for Thursday, and investors are widely expected to get another quarter-point rate cut. The ECB's main refinancing operations rate is forecast to be cut to 3.15% from 3.4% and the ECB deposit rate is forecast to fall to 3.0% from 3.25%. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.0480, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
US CPI, WHERE WILL THE DOLLAR GO NEXTTrading Plan BASELINE C urrent Short-Term Sentiment Bias : - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. - There is an 86% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed later this month⁵. - The dollar index is steady around 106.3, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the inflation data. SURPRISE Outcome That Will Surprise the Markets Based on the Baseline: - Lower-than-expected inflation data : This would likely lead to USD selling as markets fully price in the anticipated rate cut. A good trade in this scenario would be GBP/USD longs, leveraging the pound's net long positions and the USD's net short positions. - Higher-than-expected inflation data : This would likely result in USD strength as investors adjust their rate cut expectations. A good trade in this scenario would be EUR/USD sells, based on stronger USD institutional positioning compared to the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE Does This Outcome Change the Larger Macro-Fundamental Bias? - Lower-than-expected inflation : Reinforces the expectation of continued easing by the Fed, aligning with the current macro-fundamental bias of a dovish Fed aiming to support economic growth and achieve its 2% inflation target. - Higher-than-expected inflation : Could shift the macro-fundamental bias towards a more cautious Fed, potentially delaying further rate cuts and maintaining a tighter monetary policy stance to combat persistent inflation⁷⁸. Notes - Macro-fundamental bias: The market expects the Fed to continue easing monetary policy to support economic growth and achieve its inflation target. This expectation is based on the Fed's dual mandate and recent economic indicators. - Short-term sentiment bias: The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its potential impact on Fed policy, as well as interest rate decision.
TVC:DXY
by Midas_Macro
2
Boeing Seller Exhaustion sets in🐂 Trade Idea: Long - BA 🔥 Account Risk: 15.00% 📈 Recommended Product: Stock 🔍 Entry: +/- 149.00 🐿 DCA: No 😫 Stop-Loss: 135.00 🎯 Take-Profit #1: 260.00 (50%) 🎯 Trail Rest: Yes 🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨 If you like what you see don’t forget to leave a comment 💬 or smash that like ❤️ button! — BA sees massive seller exhaustion over the last few weeks. There is nothing negative that could be published now that has not already been priced in. Trump's policy of higher tariffs should protect Boeing and the backlog is already at over 10 years of current sales. In view of the duopoly and the points mentioned above, as well as the technical chart picture, strong buying should be made here. — Disclaimer & Disclosures pursuant to §34b WpHG The trades shown here related to stocks, cryptos, commodities, ETFs and funds are always subject to risks. All texts as well as the notes and information do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. They have been taken from publicly available sources to the best of our knowledge and belief. All information provided (all thoughts, forecasts, comments, hints, advice, stop loss, take profit, etc.) are for educational and private entertainment purposes only. Nevertheless, no liability can be assumed for the correctness in each individual case. Should visitors to this site adopt the content provided as their own or follow any advice given, they act on their own responsibility.
NYSE:BALong
by LGNDRY-Capital
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 10, 2024 USDJPYDoubts about the Bank of Japan's ability to keep raising rates proved to be a key factor undermining the yen. The Japanese yen (JPY) lost ground against its U.S. counterpart for the second straight day on Tuesday and lifted the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, above the mid 151.000s during Tuesday's Asian session. Uncertainty over how soon the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates again has JPY bulls on the defensive. In addition, the overnight rebound in US Treasury yields from October lows undermines the low-yielding Yen. Furthermore, the US Dollar's post-NFP rebound from near one-month lows, backed by expectations of a less accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the currency pair. That said, the softer tone of risk sentiment, concerns that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could trigger a second wave of global trade wars, and geopolitical tensions help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven yen. Traders may also refrain from aggressive bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair and prefer to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation data due on Wednesday. The all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be seen as a fresh signal that the Fed is going to cut rates. This, in turn, will stimulate demand for the dollar and provide meaningful momentum to the currency pair ahead of the central bank's key events next week. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2668 2nd Support – 1.2620 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
DOGS/USDT - Bullish Channel in H4 ChartThe DOGS/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent formation of well-defined Bullish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Days. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 0.0007321, positioned close to bottom of channel level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.0008984 2nd Support – 0.0009749 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
BONK/USDT - H4 - Wedge BreakoutThe BONK/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Wedge Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around Breakout. Target Levels: 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
NEIRO/USDT - H4- Triangle BreakoutThe NEIRO/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around Breakout. Target Levels: 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
Sell GBP/JPY Channel BreakoutThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. FX:GBPJPY Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 188.85 2nd Support – 187.55 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
Bitcoin breaks $100,000! A historic milestone.For the first time in history, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has crossed the $100,000 mark, rising 40% in just one month! Experts say this sharp rise is linked to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Analysts believe the crypto market is reacting to Trump’s promises to simplify regulations and make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” At its peak, Bitcoin reached $104,500 per coin! During his campaign, Trump actively promoted cryptocurrencies: accepting Bitcoin donations, using crypto for purchases, and highlighting blockchain as the future of the economy. The day after his election win, Bitcoin’s price jumped from $68,000 to $74,000 and then started to climb even faster as excitement grew around his plans. What does this mean for global markets? U.S. economy: Hopes for easier regulations are increasing demand for crypto in the U.S. and bringing more investment into blockchain technology. Trump’s choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto supporter, as the head of the SEC could speed up decisions that benefit the industry. Global competition: Analysts think other countries might start buying Bitcoin to keep up with the U.S. This could create a global race for digital currency and push prices even higher. What should traders expect? More volatility: Bitcoin’s fast rise could lead to bigger price swings. While this offers short-term trading possibilities, a clear trend could also let traders profit from price corrections. Altcoin growth: After Bitcoin’s surge, attention often shifts to altcoins. In the past, such events have boosted Ethereum (ETHUSD) and other projects. Solana (SOLUSD) , the second-largest altcoin by market cap, is already trading at around $240, and experts believe it could go higher. Institutional buying: With Trump supporting crypto, more big investors may join the market. This could bring steady growth. Companies like MicroStrategy (#MicroStrgy ), led by Michael Saylor, have already been buying Bitcoin, and Trump’s presidency could inspire others to follow. Donald Trump’s election win and his crypto-friendly stance have caused a historic Bitcoin rally. This trend is opening new doors for traders. FreshForex analysts believe this growth is a turning point in crypto history! With Trump’s inauguration and a possible altcoin season ahead, now is the time to take your chance and become a crypto millionaire!
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 06, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD is declining to 1.0575 at the start of the European session on Friday. Concerns over US tariffs on European goods and rising bets on interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the Euro against the US Dollar. This Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take center stage. The single currency remains on the defensive as traders are concerned about potential tariff policies on all goods imported into the US, which could undermine the Eurozone economy. In addition, the ECB is widely expected to cut the interest rate at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. All but two of the 75 economists surveyed believe the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Dec. 12. On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, with the top priority being parliament's passage of the 2025 budget. Any signs of political uncertainty in France could contribute to the euro's decline. Abroad, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs at its December meeting could put pressure on the dollar and limit EUR/USD's decline. Markets now estimate the probability that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter point at its December 17-18 meeting at 70.1%. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0570, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004