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Fundamental-analysis

Unleashing Potential: Strategic Growth And Innovation Of CelsiusCelsius® is a company that was founded in April 2004. It has benefited from the high demand for healthy products without artificial ingredients. It constantly innovates as it expands its portfolio with its scientifically proven beverage lines, and its presence consolidates in the US and reaches international levels. The price performance results in significant progress in market capitalization, leading to its exit from the Russell 2000 index.  Performance against the S&P 500: Next, I present my investment thesis based on what you believe about a company. The Seeking Alpha portal data was essential for me to have felt the growth trajectory of it. The analysis focused on specific aspects that indicate the expansive potential of the organization. CELH is adding to a considerably higher financial challenge compared to an industry median across multiple metrics: Source: Seeking Alpha The table showed a detailed view of CELH's financial and operational indicators, which stand out both in relation to the sector average and the company's historical design in recent years. Including aspects such as profit margins, profitability of capital and assets, CAPEX allocation, efficiency and liquidity. It is superior in several areas, mainly in Revenue Growth where it stood out with 227%. Considering this information, profit margins also stand out, as shown by the sector's median indicator, in relation to the CELH percentage, good indexes, etc., exceeding industry expectations and highlighting the effectiveness of management in producing value. The increase in profits is also highlighted in the free cash flow per share, added to the share price performance in 2023, along with the growth in ROE and the operating cash flow growth indicator, showing a remarkable growth outlook. CAPEX is what catches my attention the most, because there was a reduction in business expenses of US$ 17.43 million from the US$ 8.26 million reached a year ago, looking at the performance of other years. Qualitative analysis: Deepening the qualitative analysis of the company, I will list points that interpret directly from the 2023 annual report. The organization relies on the experience and commitment of John Fieldly, who, as president and CEO, sets the direction and improves the efficiency of the Celsius holding. The team is made up of: Jarrod Langhans, as CFO, manages finances and supports growth. Tony Guilfoyle, commercial director. Kyle Watson, marketing director. Toby David, team leader. Paul Storey oversees the supply chain. Rich Mattessich looks after legal and compliance. Robin Lybeck and Ronnie Char manage operations in Europe and Asia. Danielle Babich focuses on human capital development. And finally Brant P. Burchfield on sustainable growth. It has also become more solid in the drinks market by creating alliances with important figures in the sector such as AB InBev, Keurig Dr Pepper and Molson Coors. But the main one is PepsiCo (PEP), resulting in an investment of $550 million. Source: Yahoo Finance, Annual Reports Risks: It is important to highlight that the company, as interesting as it is, has considerable risks and this ends up having an impact in the long term. We will analyze the risks and opportunities below based on the 2023 annual report: Celsius runs the risk of damaging its brand reputation and losing consumer confidence due to product quality problems, negative publicity or changes in consumer preferences. The drinks sector has been very fierce and the possible emergence of other competitors could be a risk, negatively affecting its market share and possibly the company's profits. In addition, the company has faced difficulties in expanding into new markets, including the fact that other countries are bound by trade barriers and bureaucratic regulations. There is concern about a company's cybersecurity. With the increase in attacks and the dependence on information technology to carry out their operations, as well as data breaches and exposure that cause reputational damage; as well as loss of intellectual property and sanctions and fines for not following compliance. Also mentioned in the annual report, another concern is recalls, which pose risks to brands and regulations. Source: Annual Reports Based on my qualitative analysis of the annual report and what I consider to be the company's direction, it seems that it is investing in seizing opportunities in the energy drinks market, especially through strategies with partner companies, such as the partnership with Pepsi, which operates in a very divided environment.However, unnecessary dependence on the partnership represents a significant risk, as any change of mood between them could cause significant financial damage. In addition, the company must continue to modernize its product range to satisfy the growing needs of consumers and not just limit itself to the local market, which in this case is the United States, but also expand its product range to other countries. Fundamental analysis: The data shows good progress in its financial health, as evidenced by the consistent growth in its assets from 2020 to 2023. This increase shows continued advancement and planned investments in resources and business opportunities. Net equity also increased, reflecting the company's ability to generate profits and attract investment, strengthening its financial base and market position. The company's total capitalization indicates balanced financing management, combining debt and equity. However, it is important to maintain debt management at viable levels to maintain financial stability. Increased working capital shows good management of financial resources, increasing the company's ability to meet short-term obligations and finance daily operations. Total debt stability is positive as long as the company maintains a good balance between debt and equity. Market Opinion Technical Analysis: I will now complement our study with technical analyses. This method is based on the market's trading volume, and to facilitate understanding. I will present a legend that simplifies the analysis, making it clear and concise. Our focus will be on aspects that are aligned with the company's fundamentals, avoiding numbers or patterns that do not add value to the analysis. Investment decisions are made after an in-depth analysis of assets, where investors look for advantages or discrepancies in fundamentals, or data that does not correspond to the company's reality. Hot and cold candlesticks act as a thermometer to assess the buying and selling transactions that occurred during the trading week. The volume indicator includes the delta variation between buyers and sellers, representing the active flow of assets. e observe an ascending channel with rising tops and bottoms, indicating that the market retreated with a lower seller flow than the last buyer, thus forming an accumulation band. There is also a notable buyer dominance over the years. Sales volumes appear to be related to profit making or batches that were not continued. With the recent rise, along with the Nasdaq index, we anticipate that the market may pull back before resuming the upward trend. look at the caption: Take a look at the image below: Analyzing some articles that talk about Celsius, both are very recent. which discusses the company's rise in relation to Monster and Redbull, and the text emphasizes that even after Celsius' growth, it may suffer a slight slowdown, despite showing a good valuation, and also expresses concern about the company's premium valuation and its ability to sustain growth to justify it. Furthermore, the author projects growth for the company, but is quite cautious about this. I agree with both opinions and, in fact, the technical analysis they perform complements the pullback view, although they complement each other. What we have to observe is that combining performance and profit, cutting expenses, combined with the boom in the NASDAQ index, we can see a good opportunity to continue buying a company. However, for those who are buying now, they need to be very careful because it is at the top and a correction in the channel's VWAP could occur. Market concerns about Celsius being overbought could drag it to the $42 region before the market resumes its upward trend. I believe that this corrective wave in the market can occur even if the company delivers good numbers, which is normal for any stock.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by Victoredbr
2
Buy BTCUSDT Channel BreakoutThe BTC/USDT (Bitcoin) pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to a recent upward breakout. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the channel, ideally around 5900 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the following points, based on the channel and recent price movement: 62274: This target is obtained by measuring the height of the channel (from the base to the breakout point) and adding that distance to the breakout price. 63830: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on roughly twice the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 56500. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
8
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 02, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) jumped to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday amid speculation that Japan's financial authorities stepped in again, for the second time in a week, to support the domestic currency. This came amid a sell-off in the US dollar (USD) following the FOMC meeting and took the USD/JPY pair to 153.000. The yen, however, trimmed some of its strong intraday gains and continued to lose ground during the Asian session on Thursday, bringing the currency pair back above the round figure of 156.000. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep interest rates at zero and an indication that it will continue to buy government bonds as recommended in March is a big divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal. In fact, the U.S. central bank said on Wednesday that it wants more certainty that inflation will continue to fall before cutting rates. This, along with some dollar buying, lends support to the USD/JPY pair amid a positive risk tone that undermines the safe-haven Yen. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 156.000, on a rebound take Sell positions. If consolidation is above, take Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell EURCAD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential shorting opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support level of the channel, ideally around 1.4660 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 1.4616: This represents the first level of support within the channel. 1.4588: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 1.4682. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
Buy EURAUD Channel Breakout The EUR/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to a recent upward breakout from a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This breakout suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further gains in the coming hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the channel, ideally around 1.6300 after confirmation of the breakout. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones: 1.6402: This represents the first level of resistance within the channel. 1.6456: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 1.6290. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards. Thank you
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
17
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains under heavy selling pressure on the first day of the new week, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the psychological 160.00 mark for the first time since October 1986. The significant divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy outlook and the Fed's hawkish expectations continue to undermine the yen amid relatively low liquidity amid the holiday in Japanese markets. Nevertheless, overbought conditions and concerns over possible intervention by Japan to support its currency are helping to limit further losses. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is keeping the currency pair's gains in check, although significant Yen appreciation still seems elusive amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate outlook. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until September before cutting interest rates. This should continue to serve as a tailwind for the US Dollar. In addition, the overall positive tone on risks could undermine the safe-haven Yen and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. This week, investors will also keep an eye on the release of important US macroeconomic data scheduled for early in the new month, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure on Friday, before making new directional bets. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY Analysis: Caution on Strong Bullish RallyUSDJPY is on a strong bullish rally, mainly due to the weakening of the Japanese yen. If you decide to chase the bull, beware of getting caught in the act. That's because the Japanese Yen has reached the BOJ intervention zone. I think the real worry comes in when the market strikes the 161.93 to 163.26 range, and the intervention would be imminent. Without any intervention for the next 1 to 2 weeks, I will call the Bluff on BOJ. Stay away from this pair if you are not a Forex Trading veteran.
Long
by RaynLim
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading on a weak note around 1.2502 in the early hours of Asian trading on Friday. A moderate rise in the US Dollar (USD) is weighing on the major pair despite weak US GDP growth data. On Friday, the focus will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data. On Thursday, the US economy grew at a slower pace of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 3.4% in the previous quarter. That figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. Nonetheless, prices remain stable, with data released Thursday showing that the personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 3.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the Fed's 2% target. Following the release of weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth data and better-than-expected inflation data, the dollar fell to two-week lows around the mid-105.00s. As for the Pound, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers said that UK inflation has fallen in line with the central bank's expectations and the upside risk to inflation has diminished, paving the way for a rate cut. The market expects the U.K. central bank to wait to lower borrowing costs until next quarter, and to start ahead of the U.S. Fed. This, in turn, may limit the growth of the Pound Sterling (GBP). Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the level of 1.25000.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 25, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair is holding near the psychological 1.07000 level on Thursday during the early Asian session. The moderate rise in the major pair is supported by the weakening US dollar (USD). Later in the day, the preliminary US gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure will be released. On Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose 2.6% in March from the previous reading of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 2.5%. Core goods, excluding transportation, rose 0.2% for the month, falling short of the 0.3% forecast. The release of US GDP for the first quarter could provide an indication of how strongly the economy is growing and point to the Fed's next move. If the report shows stronger-than-expected data, it could spark speculation that the Fed will postpone the rate-cutting cycle and strengthen the US dollar. Markets have estimated a nearly 70% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the benchmark rate in September. On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are sticking to their plans to cut interest rates this year, even though elevated U.S. inflation could delay the Fed's move to looser policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that the central bank may cut the deposit rate from a record high of 4% in June, but is keeping options open on how to proceed. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.07000. If it bounces back, take Buy positions, if it stays below - Sell.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to struggle to make a significant recovery and languished near multi-decade lows against its US counterpart during Wednesday's Asian session. Traders seem reluctant to make a decision and prefer to wait for an important Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Friday. In addition, this week investors will face the release of the advance first quarter GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index from the US on Thursday and Friday respectively. The combination of key central bank events and important US macroeconomic data will play a key role in determining the next leg of directional movement for the Dollar-Yen pair. Meanwhile, expectations that the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will remain wide, along with the overall positive tone on risk, continue to undermine the safe-haven Yen. However, speculation that the Japanese authorities will intervene to support the local currency has kept JPY bears from betting aggressively. In addition, the US Dollar (USD) is near its lowest level in a week following Tuesday's disappointing US PMI data, and this is another factor contributing to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Nevertheless, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) should serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit the currency pair's decline. Trading recommendation: Trade in the channel 154.200-154.900 on bounces from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 23, 2024 GBPUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair remains on the defensive near 1.23500, its lowest since mid-November, in Tuesday's early Asian session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating above 106.10 as traders await the preliminary S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from the US and UK for April. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers agreed that US inflation is slowly declining but remains high. Therefore, the US central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic noted that interest rates will have to be held at a "restrictive level" and may not be lowered until "late 2024." At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said a longer timeline for rate cuts as progress on inflation has "stalled." Growing speculation that the UK central bank will cut interest rates sooner than the US Fed is putting pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP). Last week, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that progress in UK inflation and a worsening economic outlook would allow the Bank to start its rate cut cycle earlier than previously expected. Investors estimated the probability of a June rate cut at 60%, according to Reuters. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
VEDANTA cmp 257, target of 300 ++ in 10-15 trading sessionsVedanta Ltd is a diversified natural resource group engaged in exploring, extracting and processing minerals and oil & gas. The group engages in the exploration, production and sale of zinc, lead, silver, copper, aluminium, iron ore and oil & gas. It has presence across India, South Africa, Namibia, Ireland, Liberia & UAE. Its other businesses includes commercial power generation, steel manufacturing & port operations in India and manufacturing of glass substrate in South Korea and Taiwan. Vedanta is the market leader in production of Nickel in India. Below are the revenue-mix details of various businesses: 1. Zinc, Lead & Silver (25% of revenues) It runs its Indian Zinc operations through its subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) in which it owns ~65% stake. HZL is the largest primary zinc producer in India, with an expected 80% market share in 2022.One of the most notable achievements has been the successful commissioning of a 3000 KLD Zero Liquid discharge (RO-ZLD) plant at the Zinc Smelter Debari 2. Oil & Gas (9% of revenues) The Co. is India’s largest private sector crude oil producer. It accounts for ~25% of the total crude oil production of India. 3. Aluminium Business (39% of revenues) Vedanta has the largest aluminium installed capacity in India at 2.3 mtpa. It has a 47% market share in India among primary aluminium producers. Mines - Via BALCO, the company has 2 bauxite mines with capacity of ~2 MnTPA of bauxite and a coal mine to capacity of 1 MnTPA. 4. Power Segment (4% of revenues) Its flagship power project Talwandi Sabo Power Ltd (TSPL) is located in Punjab. The company has 25 years of long-term power purchase agreement with Punjab State Electricity board 5. Iron Ore Segment (5% of revenues) Vedanta is one of the largest merchant iron-ore miners in India. 6. Copper Business (12% of revenues) This includes refinery and rod plant Silvassa consisting of a 133,000 MT of blister/secondary material processing plant, a 216,000 tpa copper refinery plant and a copper rod mill with an installed capacity of 258,000 tpa. Its international copper operations include a copper mine in Tasmania, Australia which remains under care and maintenance. It is evaluating various operations to restart mining operations. 7. Other Businesses (6% of revenues) The Co. is also engaged in the business of steel manufacturing and port operations in India and manufacturing of glass substrate in South Korea and Taiwan. Upcoming Growth & Projects: Vedanta has a strong pipeline of growth projects and is incorporating future enabling businesses in its portfolio. In the Oil & Gas segment, the Co. intends to undertake new growth capex projects worth $687mn. In the Aluminium segment, it intends to incur a $1.4 bn growth capex over 2 years. This includes aluminium capacity expansion to 3 MTPA by Q3 FY24, Alumina capacity expansion to 6 MTPA by FY24 & 100% operationalization of 3 coal mines in a phased manner by Q3 FY24. The company is focused on community development and achieving a greener business model. Vedanta achieved a 5-point improvement in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment Index. Current Performance and News: Vedanta reported strong financial results for Q2 FY '24, with highest ever second quarter consolidated revenue, EBITDA, and PAT. Operational performance was strong across all businesses, with healthy production and cost control. The aluminium sector delivered one of its best quarters in terms of production and operational efficiency. Hindustan Zinc remained in the first decile of the cost curve globally, with further cost reductions. The oil and gas business delivered stable production and reduced operating expenses through optimization. The iron ore business saw higher sales and margin expansion. The company received a favourable arbitration award in its oil and gas business, resulting in a positive impact on revenue and EBITDA. The INR4,600 crores gained from the arbitration award will be realized in cash over the next few quarters. Vedanta Limited has upcoming debt maturities of around $1 billion in the next two quarters, but the company feels comfortable in managing refinancing or repayment. Vedanta Limited's Board has approved the proposal to demerge the business into six independent listed entities. Key Ratios: Market Cap - ₹ 95,606 Cr ROCE - 21.2 % ROE - 20.4 % Dividend Yield - 39.2 % Debt to equity - 2.38 Stock P/E - 19.3 Industry PE - 17.5 Conclusion: Technically, the strong price pattern at the bottom and then there is a trendline and price pattern breakout with huge volumes and there is change in price structure from lower highs lower lows to higher highs and higher lows. This itself gives strong conviction to buy at current levels and add more on dips if it comes. Vedanta is the market leader in the commodities segment and looking at the current market scenarios where metal, oil & gas and power sector are doing well due to various macro-environment factors and the company's improvement in profit and profit margins, various growth prospects, debt repayment being taken cared of and demerger benefits, the stock at current market price of 257 is a strong value buy for a minimum target of 300 in 10-15 trading sessions, which gives return of 16% in just 2 weeks .
NSE:VEDLLong
by PrashantDahale
1
Strong Buy Aartiinds cmp 645, target 740-745 in 10-15 sessionsAarti Industries Ltd manufactures and deals in Speciality Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals. Company has 21+ manufacturing units, 100+ products, 700+ domestic customers, 400+ export customers in 60+ countries with major presence in the USA, Europe, Japan, etc. Product Profile: a) Special Chemicals: Benzene, toluene, nitric acid, chlorine, methanol, aniline, sulphur, etc. b) Pharmaceuticals: API, Intermediates, Xanthine Derivatives, CDMO User Industries: Polymer and additives, agrochemicals and intermediates, dyes, pigments, paints, and printing inks, pharma intermediates, fuel additives, rubber chemicals, resins, etc. Clientele: a) Polymers and Additives: BASF, Sojitz, Solvay, Teijin, Toray, Dupont, Sabia, Dic b) Pigments, Paints, Printing Inks and Dyes: Huntsman, Clariant, Atul, Archroma, Sun Chemical, Sudarshan c) Agro Intermediates & Fertilizers: Bayer, Sygenta, UPL, Gharda Chemicals, FMC, Makhteshim, Coromandel Segmental Revenue: In FY22, company generated revenue from Speciality Chemicals 84% and Pharmaceuticals 16% Geographical Revenue Split: In FY22, company generated revenue from Exports 44% which consisted of revenues from North America 11%, Europe 11%, China 5%, Japan 3% and rest of the world 11% Demerger: On 30th January 2023, company demerged its Pharma entity into a separate company viz. Aarti PharmLabs Limited after getting approval from NCLT Ahmedabad. Shareholders of the demerged company received 1 equity share of Rs. 5/- of the Resulting Company for every 4 equity shares of Rs. 5/- held in the Demerged Company Future Projects: Company is adding new chemistries and 40+ Value added products for Chemical by doing CAPEX of Rs. 2,500-3,000 crore, and also doing site development work on 100+ acre land at Jhagadia, which is expected to be completed by FY24. These include: a) USFDA capacity expansion underway: API unit at Tarapur and intermediate unit at Vapi b) Expansion cum asset upgradation for acid unit at Vapi c) Expansion, asset restoration, sustainability initiatives, etc. d) Unit at Jhagadia for 3rd long-term contract e) NCB capacity expansion at Vapi Partnership: On November 19th 2022, company signed a binding term-sheet with Deepak Fertilizers (DFPCL), for Nitric Acid off take and supply arrangement valued over ~Rs. 8,000 crore for a 20-year period. DFPCL will supply Nitric Acid to the company, at formula driven international prices from 1st April 2023 18th January, 2024: Aarti Industries Limited (AIL) announces the signing of a long-term agreement with a multinational conglomerate for supply of a niche speciality chemical. The contract entails supply over a period of four years and is anticipated to generate revenue of over Rs. 6000 crores for the Company. Financial Performance: Aarti Industries exhibited strong resilience and delivered robust performance with a 16% increase in absolute EBITDA compared to the previous quarter. Revenues increased by 2% to Rs. 1,597 crore in Q2 FY24 compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA grew by 16% on a Q-o-Q basis to Rs. 233 crore in Q2 FY24. Profit after tax stood at Rs. 91 crore in Q2 FY24, higher by 30% over the previous quarter. Aarti Industries maintains optimism about potential demand revival in end-use segments such as agrochemical, polymer additives, and other discretionary applications. The company expects better performance in H2 FY24 and foresees FY25 as a normalizing year considering the current pace of recovery. The export market is showing stronger momentum compared to the domestic market. The company expects to sustain and grow its market share in the export market. The demand for octane boosters, a key product, is growing, and the company expects to sustain and grow this demand. The company anticipates a gradual recovery in global demand and a decrease in competitive intensity. The company is progressing well with various expansion projects and expects to commission them in a phased manner from next year. Aarti Industries is committed to deploying Rs. 2,500 to 3,000 crore for growth initiatives over a two-year period. The company is targeting commissioning of the ethylation and nitrotoluene projects in Q1 FY25. Margins have improved due to a better product mix and the recovery in demand for certain products. The company expects the bottoming out of margins in the first quarter and a gradual improvement going forward. The company is focused on optimizing staff costs and other expenses.The company expects FY25 to see a progressive increase in volume and EBITDA, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement in performance. The company expects to see a gradual recovery in volumes and margins in the second half of FY24.The net debt is expected to peak at around Rs. 2,700-2,900 crore in FY24. The company expects to see a normalization of business in FY25 as the demand recovers and inventory correction is completed. The company expects volume growth across various product lines in FY25, leading to an improvement in performance. The company's exports are predominantly to regular markets, with non-regular markets accounting for around 10% of exports. Margins in non-regular markets are generally lower, but the company expects the benefit of regular markets to accrue in the future. Conclusion: The company has a strong potential to grow as it has already signed big revenue contracts for long term and looking at a growth prospects, the share price can easily reach 900 in matter of 2 months. However for a technical trade, we see a good upside momentum and strong buying pattern, completing a big U-shaped recovery and expecting a target of 740-745 in next 10-15 trading sessions max.
NSE:AARTIINDLong
by PrashantDahale
6
Strong BUY BCG cmp 17.45, target 22.50/26.50 in few days Brightcom Group Ltd(BCG) offers digital marketing solutions to businesses, agencies and online publishers worldwide. Services Provided: The Company is divided into three major divisions: a. Ad-Tech and Digital Marketing: The services include Video Advertising, Display Ads Marketing, Performance-based Marketing, Search Marketing, Email Marketing and Lead Generation, Afliate Marketing, Social Marketing, Mobile Marketing, Niche Campaigns, Digital Trafc Management, Ad Serving b. Software services: The Company’s software services include developing customized technology platforms to solve specific needs of clients primarily around digital media and other related offerings c. Future technologies: The company’s future technologies division consists primarily of the Company’s LIFE product and developments in artificial intelligence, machine learning and Digital Out of Home(DOOH) advertising. Revenue Breakup - Q1FY24 Advertising Revenue : 94% Software Revenue : 5% Other Revenue : 1% Interim Order By SEBI An Interim order was passed by SEBI on 22.08.23 related to concerns regarding preferential allotment made by the company in FY20 & FY21. They suspected that money raised were given as loans and advances to its subsidiaries. It was also alleged that proper disclosures were not made in the Annual report and also disclosures related to preferential utilisation were not made. Post this the entire management of Brightcom has stepped down. Forensic Audit: SEBI ordered Forensic Audit of company on 16/09/2021 and Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India LLP were appointed as forensic auditor w.r.t the financial statements from FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20. The said Forensic Audit is under progress and the final outcome of the investigation is yet to come by the time of certification Market Cap - ₹ 3,513 Cr. Book Value - ₹ 34.7 Price to book value - 0.51 Debt - ₹ 0.00 Cr. EPS - ₹ 7.01 ROCE - 30.9 % Stock P/E - 2.51 Industry PE - 34.1 Currently the stock is terribly undervalued and we feel all the negatives is deeply discounted and technically it completely bottomed out at this valuation. We have recently the strong buying appearing and there is a good buying pattern emerging. So we strongly suggest a buy in BCG shares at 17.45 and buy till 18.5 for a target of 22.50 and 26.50. Valuation wise even at 26.5 its a buy but technically these are the resistance levels appearing. Stop loss 16
NSE:BCGLong
by PrashantDahale
1
Sell USDCHF BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a possible shorting opportunity due to a recent breakout from a pattern. Potential Short Trade: Entry: Below the broken level, ideally around 0.9140 after confirmation of the breakout. Confirmation could involve a retest of the broken level as resistance or a sustained move below the level. Target Levels: 0.9060: This represents a potential initial target based on a measured move approach (distance from the breakout point to the pattern's height). 0.9024: This is a further extension of the downside target. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order above the broken level, ideally around 0.9155. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
Sell GBPJPY CPI DataThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish wedge pattern. This suggests a potential acceleration of the downtrend and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) below the broken support line of the wedge, ideally around 192.80. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the following points: 190.72: This represents the height of the wedge, measured from the wedge's peak to the breakout point, projected downwards from the breakout. 190.20: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the wedge, ideally around 193.00. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
9
Investors Await Q1 ReportKey arguments in support of the idea. ▪ UNH stock has come under pressure from a series of adverse events, though Q1 earnings may improve investor sentiment regarding further UNH business growth potential. ▪ A good moment for buying, both fundamentally and technically. Investment Thesis UnitedHealth Group (UNH) engages in the provision of health insurance, software, and related consulting services. UNH is the largest provider of healthcare plans in the US. In Early 2024, UNH’s Stock Came Under Pressure from Several Adversities at Once . First, it is a cyberattack on Change Healthcare services, that led to a temporary freeze on payments from medical organizations. At the time of finalizing this report, UnitedHealth informed that services were restored, and that it did not expect big implications for financial results. However, market participants fear a one-time negative impact on profitability in Q1 2024. Shortly after the cyberattack, it was reported that the US Department of Justice had initiated an antitrust investigation for examining the strength of relationship between UnitedHealth’s insurance and medical business divisions. The impact of the investigation is uncertain, and we do not believe it to influence the stock in the short term. Investors Were Disappointed by CMS’ Final Decision on Medicare Advantage (MA) Payment Rates. On April 2, MA plan rate rises for 2025 compared to 2024 became finally known. The payout rate remained at the proposed level of 3.7% y/y, disappointing investors looking for a bigger increase. This caused a negative market reaction: UNH, the largest player, ended the April 2 trading with a 9.3% drop. Some other major stocks reacted that day accordingly: HUM (-13.4%), CVS (-7.2%), ELV (-3.3%). The worsened MA business revenue expectations for 2025 are already reflected in prices. However, the Optum segment’s organic growth (OptumHealth, OptumInsight, and OptumRx) remains a strong point of the Company and may support its Q1 2024 results that will be released on April 16. Expectations for Q1 Report. We think that investors will be focused on the guidance for 2024. Management’s confirmation or improvement of the existing guidance could dispel investor worries. Besides, we expect a detailed commentary on the impact of the cyberattack and the MA rate decision on financial results. Now Is a Good Time to Buy. The P/E NTM ratio has decreased to 15.8, which is lower than the Company’s all-time average of 18.8. The RSI has dropped below 30 points, signaling a likely reversal. We consider UNH shares’ current weakness as a good opportunity to buy, assuming that (1) the impact of the approved MA 2025 rate is already reflected in prices, (2) the cyberattack will have a one-time insignificant implication for UNH, and (3) there is still a high demand in the MA market, and UNH remains the largest and growing provider of healthcare plans. The target price for UNH over a 2-month horizon is $495, which corresponds to P/E NTM of 18. We recommend Buying and setting a Stop Loss at $415.
NYSE:UNH
by FreedomHolding
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) fails to gain meaningful momentum during Tuesday's Asian session and languishes near the 34-year low reached against the U.S. currency the day before. Monday saw a report that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will focus less on inflation and shift to a more discretionary approach in setting monetary policy. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that after the abolition of negative rates in March, the central bank will revert to conventional monetary policy, which allows different data to determine the future path of rate hikes. This adds to the uncertainty in the BoJ's outlook for future rate hikes and continues to undermine the yen. In contrast, markets pushed back expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of better than expected US consumer inflation data for March. This suggests that the large rate differential between the two countries will persist for some time to come, which, along with the bullishness of the US Dollar (USD), serves as a tailwind for the Dollar-Yen pair. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004