EURUSD Short Up Move Before a Bigger DropECB Likely to Keep Interest Rates Steady for the First Time in Over a Year
It's expected that the European Central Bank will keep key interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
ECB President Christine Lagarde might hint at a potential rate hike later in the year.
The Euro is gearing up for potential market turbulence based on the ECB's decision and Lagarde's press conference.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rates, marking the first time it has done so since early 2022. This decision will come after the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Additionally, the ECB will release its updated staff projections for the quarter, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference at 12:45 GMT.
What to Expect Regarding ECB Interest Rates and How It Could Impact EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently facing a challenging decision as it deals with the increased risks of stagflation. This decision is the most significant since it began raising interest rates in July 2022. In August, the Eurozone's annual inflation rate dropped to 5.3%, a significant decrease from the 10.6% recorded in October 2022. However, core inflation remains stubbornly above 5.0%, well above the ECB's 2.0% target.
If the ECB maintains rates while adopting a hawkish tone, indicating the possibility of another rate hike by year-end, it is likely that EUR/USD will resume its upward trajectory towards 1.0850. Should the ECB announce a 25 bps rate hike, it would confirm a bullish reversal from multi-month lows. Nevertheless, the key drivers for additional gains in EUR/USD will depend on the policy guidance and President Christine Lagarde's statements. Conversely, if the ECB decides to pause rate hikes and lacks clarity on its future path, it will likely please doves and push EUR/USD back towards 1.0650.
Other Key Market Insights for today, this week
EUR/USD is holding onto its gains near 1.0750 as the US Dollar (USD) remains weak, following mixed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved to 11.4 in September. However, the index measuring current conditions hit a three-year low at -79.4. The ZEW Institute stated that "Financial market experts are even more pessimistic about the current economic situation in Germany than they were in August 2023."
In August, the annual United States inflation gauge rose to 3.7%, surpassing the expected 3.6% increase. The CPI increased by 0.6% in August, marking its largest monthly gain in 2023, in line with market estimates. The core CPI also increased by 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively, compared to estimates of 0.2% and 4.3%.
US S&P 500 futures are rising due to market optimism, as the latest US data supports the idea of a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond is declining, approaching 3.21%.
The upcoming ECB event will play a pivotal role in shaping the short-term direction of the EUR/USD pair, with attention shifting to next week's Fed policy announcements.
Fundamental-analysis
EURAUD: When China's news make Aussie and other Asians strong! My dear friends,
Thursday, 14 September, 2023 and ECB interest rate decision is on the way. We'll wait for confirmations.
But before ECB meeting, series of several bad economical news over China's financial stability were published. Market reacted to them rationally. Suddenly the red dragon start to regain it's reputation. Good news for China means stronger Aussie, Kiwi and Yen!
A personal belief: Markets are not optimist to China's long-term relations with the free world and it makes them avoid longer term investing on Asian currencies. We could expect a more bearish weeks for them in next months, however, we don't hold that much so a mid-term bearish correction could be a opportunity for us!
Regarding the weekly chart, some more corrective weekly candles are expected.
snapshot
Considering the daily timeframe, market structure has changed so there could be a stop hunt around 1.68950
snapshot
The horizontal level could be a high probable and good R-to-R entry point.
Levels are based on: Order-blocks, Pivot Points, Support and resistance and Reversal points.
Has Oil Reached Peak Demand? Unveiling the Unique OPEC+ DealIntroduction:
In recent years, the global oil market has witnessed significant shifts that have left traders and analysts questioning the future of this vital commodity. One of the most intriguing developments is the unique Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal, which has sparked speculation about whether we have reached peak oil demand. In this article, we will delve into the details of this groundbreaking agreement and encourage traders to question their long-term perspectives on oil in a cautious tone of voice.
Understanding the Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ Deal:
The Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal, initiated in 2016, aimed to stabilize oil prices by managing production levels. This unprecedented alliance brought together the world's largest oil producers, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members, to collectively adjust their output to balance supply and demand. The agreement's primary objective was to prevent a repeat of the 2014 oil price crash, which had severe repercussions for the global economy.
Peak Demand: A Paradigm Shift:
However, the dynamics of the global energy landscape have evolved since the inception of the Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal. Heightened concerns over climate change, coupled with the rapid growth of renewable energy sources, have led to a paradigm shift in the way we perceive and consume energy. As a result, the notion of peak oil demand has gained traction, suggesting that global oil demand may have reached its peak and is now on a downward trajectory.
Call-to-Action: Questioning Longs on Oil:
In light of these emerging trends, traders must reevaluate their long-term perspectives on oil. While the oil demand will likely persist for years to come, the Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal and changing global dynamics necessitate a cautious approach. Here are a few key points to consider:
1. Diversify Your Portfolio: As the energy landscape transforms, it becomes crucial to diversify investment portfolios to include renewable energy sources, clean technologies, and other sustainable sectors. This will help mitigate potential risks associated with a declining demand for oil.
2. Stay Informed: Keep a close watch on market trends, technological advancements, and government policies that promote renewable energy. Understanding the evolving landscape will enable traders to make informed decisions and adapt to changing market conditions.
3. Embrace Innovation: Explore opportunities within the renewable energy sector, such as investing in solar, wind, or hydrogen technologies. These sectors are expected to experience significant growth and may provide alternative avenues for profitable investments.
Conclusion:
The unique Russia-Saudi Arabia OPEC+ deal has undoubtedly played a crucial role in stabilizing oil prices and ensuring market equilibrium. However, the rise of renewable energy sources and growing concerns over climate change have led to the notion of peak oil demand. As traders, it is essential to question our longs on oil and adopt a cautious approach while diversifying our portfolios, staying informed, and embracing innovation. By doing so, we can navigate the evolving energy landscape and seize opportunities that arise from this transformative period in the history of the global oil market.
AUD/JPY - The Price of PatienceThe AUD/JPY pair is trading in a sideways range on the 30-minute chart, with the price currently consolidating between the 94.20 and 94.40 levels. The pair has been trading in this range for the past few days, and it is unclear which way it will break out.
Fundamental Analysis
The fundamental factors that are affecting the AUD/JPY pair include the following:
The Australian economy is growing at a slower pace than expected, which is weighing on the Australian dollar.
The Japanese economy is also growing at a slower pace, but the Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates low, which is supportive of the Japanese yen.
The risk appetite of investors is declining, which is making them less willing to hold riskier assets like the Australian dollar.
Technical Analysis
The technical indicators on the 30-minute chart are mixed. The RSI is neutral, while the MACD is bearish. The stochastic oscillator is also bearish, but it is starting to turn up.
Conclusion
The AUD/JPY pair is trading in a sideways range on the 30-minute chart. The fundamental factors are mixed, and the technical indicators are also mixed. The pair is likely to remain range-bound for the time being, but it could break out to the upside or downside if there is a significant change in the fundamental or technical factors.
XAUUSD Possibilities!!!The last week wasn't a good one supposed to be for stock market because of PMI and Unemployment Data which lead DXY to surge again, in general some Data such as CPI and retail sales can declare the next trend for stock market.
All traders' attentions focus on CPI before FED Meeting and CPI might be reach to 3.6%,
beside that if Core CPI decreased probably have no effect on Yields bond.
The possibility of a 0.25% increase in interest rates by November has increased after the very favorable release of the US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and we can hope for further strengthening of the US dollar in the event of a favorable release of data next week.
On the one hand, gold is under the pressure of high real interest rates and on the other hand, the strengthening of DXY. Currently, gold is in valuable ranges, and as mentioned in the video of the monthly report, the valuable ranges of gold for the long-term view are the ranges of 1890, 1860, 1830, and 1790 dollars.
It should be kept in mind that if the dollar index stabilizes above the range of 105, there is a possibility that the downward movement of gold will continue to the range of 1893 dollars.
if You have any opinion about this topic, it would be appreciated to share with me.
Behzad.J
GBPUSD, Further ShortOn the Weekly time frame, the last two daily candles closed below the EMA-200 dynamic support in a descending price channel within a monthly falling wedge.
There was a breakout of the falling wedge which under normal circumstances would have been a bullish start at the base of it, but this decline was as a result of the rising DXY index over the week past.
The retest into the wedge by the last daily candle was resisted by the EMA-200 support. This signifies huge declines in the coming days. The upside swing of the DXY index is also evident backing further declines of the GBPUSD.
Resistance: 1.25331
Support: 1.23083,
1.22743,
1.21523
GOLD, to continue the bearish waveLast Thursday, gold price attempted to make a correction towards the $1930 PER ounce but was quickly rejected by the EMA-200/100 on the 4Hr time frame at $1929.814 which signifies that the bears are still in control in that region.
Last Friday, the price declines to 1919.085 at the time of market closure whereby the last two 4Hr candles closed below the trendline support that has been holding the bulls since 21st August 2023.
As long as the candles are closing below that trendline support signals the potential continuation of the bears movement down to the next significant level (1903).
Important news coming up this week which can alter the direction of the gold market so keep your eyes on the news on Wednesday to Friday. DXY has for the next consecutive 8 weeks been a bullish swing that could put more selling pressure on gold.
Wednesday: CPI
Thursday: PPI, retail sales and unemployment claims
Friday: Empire State Manufacturing Index and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Resistance: 1925
Support: 1907, 1903, 1896
XAUUSD, to Short further to 1903Gold has been on a bearish wave since the start of the last Friday, 1st September and the sells continued since the start of the week to 1915.339 been the weekly low. Price below 1925 will be well resisted by the EMA-200 at 1928.
The US fundamental on unemployment claims today was negative for Gold and expected to decline further to the next significant level at 1903.
Cherish Gold traders, what are your thoughts?
GBP/USD bearish uncertaintyGBP/USD Fundamental and Technical Analysis (FTA)
The GBP/USD price is found in a narrow range of 1.2490-05 on September 7, 2023, staying close to the June lows. On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD is still trading below the MA (200) H1 (1.2615) moving average line. The situation is similar on the four-hour chart.
On the 30 min chart, see the mentions on the chart.
From a fundamental perspective, there are a few factors that could weigh on the GBP/USD in the near term. These include:
The ongoing political uncertainty in the UK, as the country prepares for a general election in the coming months.
The weak economic outlook for the UK, as the country grapples with high inflation and slowing growth.
The strong dollar, which is being supported by rising US interest rates.
On the technical side, the GBP/USD is currently trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish signal. The pair is also trading below a number of Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting that further weakness is possible.
However, there are also some factors that could support the GBP/USD in the near term. These include:
The Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance, as the central bank is expected to raise interest rates again in the coming months.
The potential for a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations.
The weakness of the euro, which could make the GBP/USD more attractive to investors.
Overall, the outlook for the GBP/USD is mixed. The pair is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, but there are some factors that could support it in the longer term.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents only my personal thoughts and knowledge at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
EUR/USD - downtrend or reversal soon?EUR/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis (TFA)
---Fundamental Analysis
From a fundamental perspective, the EUR/USD is facing some headwinds. The European economy is slowing down, and the ECB is expected to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. The US economy is growing at a faster pace, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in the coming months.
However, there are also some positive factors for the EUR/USD. The eurozone is still a relatively safe haven currency, and it is benefiting from the recent weakness in the US dollar.
---Technical Analysis
The pair is still correcting on the downside, forming the Wace C of a bigger Wave 4.
I marked two potential targets on the downside. It is not mandatory for the price to hit them both, but for now the trend is on the downside.
Watch the price carefully when it gets close to the marked areas, to not be surprised by a sudden price reversal.
The technical picture for the EUR/USD is mixed. The exchange rate is trading above its 200-day moving average, which is a bullish sign. However, it is also trading below the 50-day moving average, which is a bearish sign.
The key level to watch on the upside is 1.0935, which is the high from last week. A break above this level could signal a move towards 1.1000. On the downside, the key level to watch is 1.0635, which is the May low. A break below this level could signal a move towards 1.0500.
Overall, the EUR/USD is a volatile market and the outlook is uncertain. Traders should be prepared for both bullish and bearish moves in the coming days.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents my personal thoughts at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
BTC USD ideaWhen we consider August and its typical volatility, we've seen some unusual corrections in recent years, along with unexpected spikes in volatility. The dollar still has some upper levels to reach before a potential decline. So, if we keep that in mind and the dollar tests higher levels, it logically suggests that BTC/USD could trend lower.
Let's keep a close eye on how the dollar behaves in the upcoming weeks. Here at Global Chart Surfers, we've faced a few more losses than expected, but our strong money management keeps us ahead of the game. We hope you all have tight money management practices too, and together, we'll keep navigating the market with the big players.
In the grand scheme of things, we have the global supply and demand ranges to work with. Let's stay grounded, stay professional, and keep beating the market! 💼📈🌐
BTC Dominance 1D IntervalHello everyone, I invite you to checking the current situation of BTC's Dominance over the rest of the cryptocurrency market. At the beginning, we will mark the downtrend with the yellow line, which ended with an uptrend and a transition to the uptrend channel indicated with the help of the blue lines. As we can see, we have a sideways breakout from the channel, at this point it is worth watching whether we will see a return to the designated channel or a larger downward move.
When we turn on the EMA Cross 200, we see that the opmination is still above the 200 trailing, which confirms that it remains in a strong uptrend.
Going further, we can use the trend based fib extension tool to determine support on the chart and here we will first mark the visible support zone from 48.56% to 47.42%, then support at 46.30%, and then the second strong support zone from 44.68% to 42.61%.
Looking the other way, we will similarly mark the zones that should be a significant resistance in taking over the market dominance and here in the first place there is a strong resistance zone from 52.05% to $ 54.04, when we leave it above we will move towards the second zone from 55, 62% to 57.21%.
Please note the CHOP index which indicates that the collected energy is used to decrease dominance, on the RSI we have a return to the lower part of the range, however looking at the STOCH index we can see that the energy indicates impending depletion which may slow down further decline.
ETH/USDT 1DInterval Review ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, on a one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downtrend from which the price has changed to an uptrend, then with the blue lines we will mark the uptrend channel, from which the price breaks out at the bottom, often leaving the channel gives a move similar in size to the channel, so you should take into account such an event.
When we look at the EMA Cross 200, we see that the price has fallen below the blue line, which indicates a return to the downtrend, it is worth watching further behavior under this line.
Moving on, we can move on to marking support areas when we start a larger correction. And here we have a visible support zone from $1667 to $1515, then there is a second strong support zone from $1367 to $1152 and then a strong support at $880
Looking the other way, we see that the price has reached an important resistance zone that it has not yet been able to overcome from $1920 to $2235. However, if we manage to get out of it higher, we still have resistance at $2,555, and then a very strong resistance at $3,008.
Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that we have a lot of energy to make a move, the RSI indicator shows a rebound and a sideways trend, while the STOCH indicator indicates that most of the energy has been used, which may give the price a rest.
Worrisome ? Saudi Arabia is appearing in the global marketThe development and use of artificial intelligence has been a source of much discussion and concern around the world. In this scenario, a country that has long been overlooked in the technological area begins to emerge; Saudi Arabia. It is a controversial country, which participates in several conflicts in the region, directly or indirectly, and which has a bad record of human rights. However, it seeks to modernize and become a technological hub in the region. To do this, it adopts a curious strategy: investing in soccer. The Saudi national championship features names like Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar Junior, as well as some European coaches, who were hired for astronomical values. But what is the purpose of this? It is not just a passion for the sport, but rather a way of diversifying its image and attracting investments.
Macroeconomics
As the largest Arab economy and one of the largest in the world, Saudi Arabia expects to reach a GDP of over 1 trillion dollars in 2023. However, its economic performance still faces many challenges, such as inflation, unemployment, public debt and current account deficit. In addition, the kingdom seeks to reduce its dependence on oil, whose prices are unstable and subject to external shocks. An example of this was the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused a 4.1% drop in GDP in 2020. Faced with this scenario, the Saudi government implemented measures of fiscal stimulus, public accounts adjustment and economic and social diversification, within the framework of the Vision 2030 plan. These measures favored the recovery of the economy in 2021, with an estimated growth of 8%. For the next few years, the prospects are positive, but moderate: a growth of 3.1% is expected in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024.
Table of data for 2020 and current 2023:
Source: Nasdaq.com; Al-Monitor
The Saudi oil sector
It is controlled by the state-owned Saudi Aramco, the largest company in the world in market value and oil extraction. It produces 9.2 million bpd (barrels of oil per day), 9% of world production and half of the bloc’s capacity. The company also influences the global fossil fuel market by its extraction policy and its agreements with OPEC+. In 2020, it led an agreement of the organization to reduce extraction by 9.7 million bpd, 10% of global supply, until April 2021. In 2023, it also announced voluntary cuts in its extraction, with Riyadh saying it would reduce oil by 400 thousand bpd from May until the end of 2023. In addition, it extended the voluntary cut of one million bpd for another month, until July 2023. These measures aim to balance the fossil fuel market and avoid an oversupply.
In August 2021, the price of Brent (international reference) was around US$ 72 per barrel, an increase of about 40% compared to the beginning of the year.
And a recovery of about 80% compared to the lowest level recorded in April 2020 (US$ 40 per barrel). This high was sustained by the reduction of OPEC+ supply, by the improvement of demand with vaccination and by the expectation of a global economic recovery.
The oil sector faces uncertainties and risks, such as the Delta variant of Covid-19, which can reduce the demand for oil, geopolitical tensions and the energy transition to renewable sources. Remember that the war between Russia and Ukraine has a direct impact on this sector, as oil is a strategic and essential resource for the development of many countries. Factors such as supply shortage, energy insecurity, geopolitical tension and emergency stock release affect fossil fuel prices, generating impacts on inflation, transportation, production, and consumption. How to solve this problem? It is important to seek peaceful and diplomatic solutions for the conflict in Ukraine, as well as sustainable and renewable alternatives for the global energy matrix. Oil consumption depends mainly on the level of economic activity of consumer and importer countries, which can increase or decrease their demand.
WTI and Brent Oil Technical Analysis
WTI Futures
To be more precise, WTI suffered a slight drop from 127 to 66.87, resulting in a range between 69.84. In the chart below, we can observe that this corresponds to an accumulation pattern, based on Wyckoff’s structure. Stock data of this fossil fuel still indicate scarcity, as extraction was reduced since the beginning of the pandemic. There was a significant decrease in extraction between 2021 and 2022, compared to the period from 2017 to 2019, when it was much higher. In addition, the ESG sustainable movement agendas have long sought to reduce oil extraction, aiming to raise awareness about the use of fossil fuels worldwide. A more detailed analysis of the daily oil chart reveals an accumulation range. In the month of June, there was a significant increase in buying volume, indicating investor interest in buying. I believe this accumulation range will last for some time. After that, investors should wait for signs of interest rate cuts, which may occur in 2024. Jerome Powell does not signal a cut, but rather increases in interest rates. As we know, lowering inflation in the US economy is a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which directly affects the price of crude oil.
The same pattern seems to repeat itself when we examine the Brent oil CFD. Again, we observe an accumulation structure during this period. We can also identify a bearish channel. Even with the buying flow since June, the market may return to the range between 86 and 70 until there are signs of improvement in economic data.
What I mean by that is that Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates, took advantage of the appreciation of oil to generate more wealth and profitability. This positively impacted the Middle Eastern countries. High oil prices benefited the countries, which increased their production, revenue and geopolitical influence, and they bought clubs, made sports partnerships, opening doors for diversification.
Country’s Investments in Technology
Saudi Arabia has invested billions of dollars in technology and innovation, as part of its plan for economic diversification and social modernization. The country has sought to become a hub for research and development in areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, biotechnology, robotics, and cybersecurity. One of the examples of these investments is the purchase of 3,000 H100 chips from Nvidia, each valued at US$ 40,000, by the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust), a national public research institution. These chips are essential for the development of artificial intelligence software, especially those based on the GPT-3 model. Kaust plans to use Nvidia’s chips to create its own ChatGPT, an intelligent conversation system that can interact with users in Arabic and English, answering questions, providing information and offering services. In addition to Kaust, other national institutions and companies have also bought chips from Nvidia to develop artificial intelligence projects. For example, the Saudi Telecom Company (STC), the largest telecommunications operator in the country, acquired 1,000 H100 chips to create a cloud computing platform that offers AI services to corporate and governmental customers.
As we explore the implications of Saudi Arabia’s controversial ambitions, it is essential to consider how these actions are shaping global relations and, more specifically, the impact they have on leading companies in the technological scenario, such as Nvidia.
What does NVIDIA have to do with it?
Nvidia has stood out remarkably in relation to other companies in the development of chips for artificial intelligence, arousing the interest of Middle Eastern countries. But, this rise, caused some concerns to the United States, which began to impose trade restrictions in the region. To better understand why Nvidia has stood out in this scenario, I decided to create a qualitative and quantitative analysis. Let’s explore the reasons behind Nvidia’s continued success in the field of technology.
My goal is to show how Nvidia is benefiting from innovation in its sector and how this can impact its market performance.
Qualitative analysis NVIDIA
Nvidia is a company known for its products aimed at gaming, but that also stands out in the sector and in the race of artificial intelligences. The company positions itself as a leader and reference in this field, being one of the most valuable in the world. In 2020, its revenue was US$ 16.68 billion and, in August 2021, its market value was US$ 538 billion. With more than 18 thousand employees in more than 30 countries, Nvidia has strategic partnerships with technology giants such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Tesla.
Relevant Details of the Sector of Activity:
The semiconductor sector, in which Nvidia operates, is very competitive and innovative. Semiconductors are essential for the manufacture of electronic components and require efficient chips to meet growing demands. Nvidia differentiates itself by its experience in GPUs optimized for parallel processing and AI. In addition to having a solid presence in games, the company also offers solutions for cloud, data centers, IoT and other areas. For this, it invests continuously in research and development.
SWOT analysis:
_____
Strengths:
* Market leadership in the CCaaS segment.
* An open and flexible platform that integrates various cloud communication and collaboration solutions.
* High quality and security of the services offered by the company.
* Strong revenue and profit growth in recent years.
Weaknesses:
* Dependence on the North American market, which accounts for approximately 70% of the company's revenue.
* Vulnerability to cyberattacks and privacy breaches.
* Difficulty in retaining and attracting qualified talent in the technology sector.
Opportunities:
* Increased demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and trends in hybrid work and online education.
* Expansion into new geographical markets and customer segments.
Development of new products and services that add value to customers and generate recurring revenue.
* Strategic partnerships with other technology companies to enhance integration and interoperability of the company's solutions.
Threats:
* Intensified competition in the CCaaS segment, with the entry or strengthening of major market players such as Microsoft, Google, Cisco, and Facebook.
* Regulatory or legal changes that could impact the SaaS sector or the CCaaS segment.
* Reduced demand for cloud communication and collaboration solutions after the end of the pandemic or the return to in-person activities.
Source: Seeking Alpha
_____
Fundamental Analysis
Going straight to the point about the financial health and performance of the company. For this, let’s use the financial data from the second quarter of fiscal year 2024 (ended July 31, 2023). The financial indicators that we will consider are: EBITDA, CFO, ROE, ROIC, Gross Margin and Operating Margin.
Source: Yahoo Finance
According to the data, it presents good indicators of profitability, cash generation and margins, despite the drop in revenue and profit compared to the previous year. The company stands out in the data center segment, which grew 61% compared to last year. It faces some challenges, such as Russia’s sanctions and China’s lockdowns, which may affect its performance in the future. But the company continues to invest in innovation and expansion, such as the acquisition of ARM and the launch of the Omniverse platform. NVIDIA is a leader in the graphics chip market, with potential to grow even more in the coming years.
Source: Yahoo Finance
The company has a liquidity of 5.07, which indicates good liquidity. This means that the company has more than enough to cover its short-term obligations.
The company has a debt of 0.19, which indicates low debt. This means that the company has a healthy capital structure and is not heavily leveraged.
We can conclude that Nvidia has a solid financial position and that it can take advantage of growth opportunities in the technology market. It has also shown consistent results and exceeded expectations. That is why it is considered one of the best in the technology sector.
NVIDIA Technical analysis:
Translate: But if we look deeper, the video increases since October 2022. If we look closely at the year 2022, it was a year in which the S&P 500 had a very large devaluation compared to the year 2021:
It's evident that major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE have also been impacted by this performance, with balances well below expectations and generating significant pessimism. From October 2022, we began to observe a gradual recovery in major stocks listed on Nasdaq and NYSE, although this began in June when there was an increase in purchases on June 21. Despite the sharp decline, there was a recovery from this drop, forming a range where investors took advantage of the pessimism to buy stocks. The movement observed at the bottom on October 3 corresponds to a “spring,” indicating the end of the downtrend.
2023 has been a positive year for Nvidia, and the recent surge could further boost share prices if it breaches the 483 region.
After examining the impact of Nvidia on the global technology scenario, we see that technological innovations are not always used positively. We do not know how far Saudi Arabia plans to go, but its ambition and power raise doubts. The country is a controversial figure in the global scenario and with all the investment in technology and innovation, they can generate concerns for the international community. I hope this article was useful and informative for you. Thank you for your reading.
Source: Reuters, Financial Times, Investing.com. Tradingview.com, Yahoo Finance
WIPRO: PICK OF THE YEARWipro Looks Great with Technical Analysis!
There are a lot of hidden reasons for selecting Wipro as the Pick of the Year.
Let me show you:
First, Wipro and Nifty Ratio Chart
This is a hidden Information, and see how chart is taking support
Secondly, Wipro and NiftyIT Ratio Chart
Again a hidden information and See how Wipro is taking support in this also
Both of Above information suggesting a good support after a long time in Wipro
And this support can give you the best investment price.
Third, watch how Wipro is taking support on Monthly chart
It was a resistance trendline where Wipro gave a breakout few years back and now it is retesting those levels, and is consolidating. This can be a good Demand Zone and we can expect a price reversal
Also, if you notice the previous Wipro High, It is giving Wipro a Horizontal Support.
And the best part is, the level is 0.618 Fibonacci Zone, that too in a Monthly Chart.
Fourth, Fundamentals are still great with Profits increasing every year.
FIIs and DIIs have increased there stakes in the company last quarter, so this information can be a highlight for us to invest in WIPRO.
With all these analysis, I think Wipro can be a very good reversal stock for next few months, and we can see a good up move in Wipro.
This all reasons make me pick WIPRO as the PICK OF THE YEAR.
What do you think about this idea?
GBPJPY, Bulla ready to retest 186.744The price movement fulfilled my last projection.
The GBPJPY bulls are ready to challenge the 186.744 price after a pull back from the last time it reached this price on 21st August, 2023.
The price is adequately supported at 184.838 and the EMA-50 on the 4hr time frame.
Let us see how it unfolds at the top.
GANESH HOLDINGS -WEEKLY TIME FRAME The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
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Tradelikemee Academy
DOT/USDT 1D Interwal ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the DOT chart in pair to USDT, on a one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel in which the price is currently moving.
At this point, it is worth including EMA Cross 10 and 30, which indicate the place of transition into a downtrend in which the price is still maintained.
Moving on, we can move on to marking support areas when we start a larger correction. And here the first support is at the price of $4.24, where the price remains, while further we have a strong support zone from $4.06 to $3.88.
Looking the other way, we see that the price needs to break through the resistance zone from $4.49 to $4.72, then we have a second visible zone from $4.90 to $5.09, then resistance at $5.35, and another resistance at $5.68.
On the CHOP index, we see that most of the energy is used, on the RSI we are moving at the lower end of the range, while the STOCH indicator is also moving at the lower end, which may indicate an imminent change in price direction.
GBP/USD MIXED FEELINGSIn the past update, I mentioned that if the price goes above the 1.29818, a long position has to be taken into consideration.
However, if the price breaks the 1.28215 on the downside, then it will continue to drop until the other levels that I marked at the beginning of August.
For now, all the price levels have been touched.
GBP/USD is trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish signal. However, the price is also trading above the 50-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. This suggests that the market is currently in a state of indecision, and it is possible that the pair could break out of this range in either direction in the near term.
Wait to see how the price develops in the near future before going Long or Short.
My personal belief is that the price will soon start to correct on the upside, however, I will be waiting for more market evidences.
From a fundamental perspective, there are a few factors that could influence the GBP/USD in the near term. First, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, which could provide some support for the pound. However, the UK economy is still facing headwinds from Brexit and the war in Ukraine, so it is possible that the pound could weaken if these risks continue to weigh on sentiment.
Overall, the outlook for the GBP/USD is uncertain in the near term. The pair is trading in a narrow range, and it is unclear which direction it will break out of this range. The fundamental factors are mixed, with the Bank of England rate hike being a positive for the pound, but the UK economy facing headwinds from Brexit and the war in Ukraine. The technical indicators are also mixed, with the 200-day moving average being a bearish signal, but the 50-day moving average being a bullish signal.
Gold Price Holds Steady Before Important US Employment DataIn continuation from our last week’s analysis on Gold which was spot on, we can see right now that the price of gold (XAU/USD) is moving sideways after a recent rise, which was driven by weaker labor demand due to a less optimistic economic outlook. This precious metal is expected to stay relatively stable as investors wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday (tomorrow).
On Wednesday, the US ADP Employment report indicated that the job market isn't as strong as previously believed. Companies have slowed down their hiring processes, adding to the signs of an uncertain economic future. The decrease in labor demand has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might ease its approach, especially since Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned at the Jackson Hole Symposium that inflation is now more influenced by labor market conditions.
Gold has been on a winning streak for the past three days and is predicted to continue recovering as labor demand from US companies weakens due to reduced overall demand.
The effects of higher interest rates were evident in the US ADP Employment Change data, which showed a decline in job vacancies. The August ADP report revealed that the private sector in the US added 177K employees, falling short of the expected 195K and just a fraction of July's revised figure of 371K.
The slowdown in job growth was particularly notable in the leisure and hospitality sector, where job creation in areas like hotels and restaurants decreased by 30K in August after a period of robust hiring.
Wage growth also eased in August. While those staying in their jobs experienced an annual pay growth of 5.9%, those changing jobs saw a slower growth rate of 9.5%.
Nela Richardson, the chief economist at ADP, noted that the August numbers reflect a pace of job creation similar to the period before the pandemic. She stated, " After two years of remarkable gains tied to the recovery, we are transitioning to more sustainable growth in both pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic diminish. "
According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, it's widely anticipated that interest rates will remain unchanged in September. Additionally, the Fed is expected to maintain rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.50% by the end of the year.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, emphasised during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium that inflation is now more responsive to the job market. Consequently, a softer labor market could reduce the upward pressure on inflation.
Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed Bank, suggested that the current policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation to 2% over a reasonable timeframe.
After a sharp decline to near 103.00, the US Dollar is experiencing a slight rebound. Nonetheless, many investors are hopeful that the Fed's interest rates have reached their peak, which could lead to further downward movement. The 10-year US Treasury yields have moderately rebounded to 4.12%.
While higher mortgage rates are once again putting pressure on US housing demand, it seems that the most challenging phase of the housing sector's correction has passed due to limited supply.
According to property analysts surveyed by Reuters, predictions of a price drop in the housing market for this year have disappeared, indicating that the short-lived correction in the US housing market is now concluded.
Looking ahead, investors will be paying attention to the weekly Jobless Claims for the week ending on August 25, as well as the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July.
In conclusion, there's a belief that gold is gaining strength and might experience a potential upward breakout collecting liquidity resting above. This could be accompanied by a minor pullback before continuing its upward movement (see chart for more details).
OKTA - High Long Potential - Minimalists AnalysisI'm absolutely NO fundamental analyst.
I literally have no good clue how to read the fundamentals like the Pro's are doing. And I don't plan to learn it in the near future.
BUT...
...I trust my common sense.
The Blue Box explains my common sense thinking and why I see OCTA as a potential buy for the long term.
What I know for sure are my TA skills.
And what I see there is, that price respects the L-MLH of the Andrews Pitchfork.
The Green Box shows the support range.
If you zoom closer you see the "Trigger" bar (green) which started the up-move.
The Blue Boxes are just for myself. I cut out the noise by splicing the inside bars and outside bars to one block. That makes the chart reading easier.
What else do we have in the TA arsenal?
The MACD and the Mansfield RS.
You probably know what the MACD projects.
The Mansfield Relative Strenght is not known very widely. Nonetheless it does it's job by measuring the evolution of OCTAs price compared to the SPX over an average of 52 periods by default.
So, bringing it all together:
If price don't drop below the Forks lower line (The L-MLH or Lower Medianline Parallel), AND both, MACD and Mansfield are positive AND the volume starts to rise furious, then my Gatling fires from all guns. §8-)
Wish you all a happy weekend.
BTC 4H Review Chart (price adjustment)Hello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval. First of all, we will use the yellow line to mark the downtrend, which the price could not overcome, while at this point you can mark the triangle in which we are currently moving. Moreover, locally, it is worth marking the sideways trend channel from which the price went up by the height of the indicated channel.
When we turn on the EMA Cross 200, we see that the price broke the blue line and wanted to return to the uptrend, but the attempt failed and we saw a quick reversal of the price.
Now we can move on to marking support areas in case of deepening correction. And here in the first place it is worth marking the support zone from $26968 to $26599, however, when we fall below this zone, we can see a drop around the second zone from $26299 to $25684, and then we have a strong support at $25012.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the Fib Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we will mark the resistance zone from $27,640 to $28,253, where we lack the energy to go up, only when this happens, the price will move towards the second very strong resistance zone from $29,129 to $30,238.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that the energy has been used and there is currently an accumulation visible, on the RSI we crossed the upper limit which indicated overheating and a trend reversal where there is still room for the price to go lower, also the STOCH indicator confirms that there is room for us to they went a little lower in this reaction.