XAUUSD(DEMANDS) INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSISXAUUSD(DEMANDS)
Unveiling the Dynamics of Gold Prices in 2023
In a year marked by economic fluctuations and global uncertainties, the trajectory of gold prices has been a focal point for investors and analysts alike. As we step into the final quarter of 2023, understanding the nuances of gold's market performance becomes increasingly pivotal.
The Current dilemma: Gold Price Update
At the outset of the year, gold experienced a surge, reflecting prevalent market apprehensions regarding inflation, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy shifts across major economies. As of , the price of gold stands at per ounce, showing [Percentage change of 1.76% over the past Higher highs
Factors Influencing Gold's Valuation
Several key factors continue to influence the dynamics of Gold price
1>Inflation Concerns: Heightened inflation rates have historically correlated with an increase in gold prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets to hedge against currency devaluation.
>Geopolitical Unrest: Uncertainties surrounding global geopolitics often drive investors towards gold as a perceived safe investment during turbulent times.
>Central Bank Policies: Monetary policy decisions by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, continue to impact the valuation of gold, with interest rate changes affecting its attractiveness as an investment.
>Market Volatility: Fluctuations in stock markets and the broader financial landscape also play a role in shaping investor sentiment towards gold.
Expert Insights and Future Projections
>Experts and analysts forecast diverse perspectives on the future of gold prices. Some anticipate a bullish trend, citing ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. Others suggest a potential correction in prices as economies stabilize and central banks adjust policies.
Implications for Investors and Market Observers
For investors and individuals tracking the gold market, understanding these price trends can be crucial for portfolio diversification and risk management strategies. Furthermore, for industries reliant on gold, such as jewelry and technology, price shifts may influence production costs and consumer pricing.
Conclusion
The gold market remains a barometer of economic uncertainties and investor sentiment, often reflecting broader trends in the global financial landscape. While the current price holds significance, comprehending the multifaceted factors shaping gold's valuation provides a comprehensive perspective crucial for market participants.
Note *The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only . Market conditions fluctuate, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
XAUUSD BREAKDOWN IN THE NEXT PUBLISH. THANKS
Follow for more insights 👍
Fundamental-analysis
ETC in a pro-growth formation?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the ETC chart in pair with USDT, also on a four-hour interval. Let's start by marking the formation we can see, currently we have one channel created, when a second smaller one is created, it may be the beginning of a pro-growth formation. Next, the white line will mark the local trend line over which we are moving, and the yellow line will mark a downward trend from which the price moved dynamically into a local upward trend.
Going further, we can move on to marking support areas when we start a correction. And here we will mark the support zone from $19.55 to $18.12, but if the price breaks out of it, we may see a return to the area of the second zone from $15.78 to $14.11.
Looking the other way, we see that the price is fighting in a strong resistance zone from $20.20 to $22, and then we have visible resistance at $24.31.
Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that we have energy for the upcoming move, the RSI indicator shows an upward movement after recovery, which again gives a lot of room for a decline, while the STOCH indicator shows that the upper limit has been exceeded, which causes the growth to slow down and may translate into for the price recovery.
HOW-TO apply an indicator that is only available upon request?Recently, I've realized that my typical day involves constant encounters with indicators. For example, when the alarm clock rings, it's an indicator that it's morning and time to get up. I am checking the phone and once again paying attention to the indicators: battery charge and network signal level. I figure out in just one second that such a complex element of the phone as the battery is 100% charged and the signal from the cell towers is good enough.
Then I’m going out on a busy street, and it's only because of the traffic light indicator that I can safely cross the road to reach the parking lot. Looking at the on-board computer of my car, with its many indicators, I know that all the components of this complicated mechanism are working properly, and I can start driving.
Now, imagine what would happen if none of this existed. I would have to act blindly, relying on luck: hoping that I would wake up on time, that the phone would work today, that car drivers would let me cross the road, and that my own car would not suddenly stop because it ran out of gas.
We can say that indicators help to explain complex processes or phenomena in simple and understandable language. I think they will always be in demand in today's complex world, where we deal with a huge flow of information that cannot be perceived without simplifications.
If we talk about the financial market, it's all about constant data, data, data. Add in the element of randomness and everything becomes totally messed up.
To create indicators that simplify the analysis of financial information, the TradingView platform uses its own programming language — Pine Script . With this language, you can describe not only unique indicators, but also strategies — meaning algorithms for opening and closing positions.
All these tools are grouped together under the term "script" . Just like a trade or educational idea, a script can also be published. After this, it will be available to other users. The published script can be:
1. Visible in the list of community scripts with unrestricted access. Simply find the script by its name and add it to the chart.
2. Visible in the list of community scripts, but access is by invitation only. You'll need to find the script by its name and request access from its author.
3. Not visible in the list of community scripts, but accessible via a link. To add such a script to a chart, you need to have the link.
4. Not visible in the list of community scripts; access is by invitation only. You'll need both a link to the script and permission for access obtained from its author.
If you have added to your favorites a script that requires permission from the author, you'll only be able to start using the indicators after the author includes you in the script's user list. Without this, you will get an error message every time you add an indicator to the chart. In this case, contact the author to learn how to gain access. Instructions on how to contact the author are located after the script's description and highlighted within a frame. There you will also find the 'Add to favorite indicators' button.
The access can be valid until a certain date or indefinitely. If the author has granted access, you will be able to add the script to the chart.
Quick bitcoin update - Chop Neutrality aheadOverall I am not liking the current trading environment regarding bitcoins price action.
I can see the next week start to heat up as we look to break this ascending wedge, but until then I don't really see a reason to try to trade this sideways action. Be patient and the plays will come.
Right now is the time to evaluate potential setups in Bitcoin and the overall ALTcoin market, I will be posting my thoughts as the week goes on. This next week could be pivotal for the market so make sure to set alerts At the specified price targets listed.
Price Areas I am watching out for.
A dip below the diagonal at $36,572- $37,451.
A break above the horizontal Fib level .382 at $38,104
Set alerts for both of these areas. A break below likely means a decline on the way pre-Christmas, a break above and I think our next targets will quickly be broken.
Be aware though as it is the holiday season we may see some price decline as people withdraw gains to pay for gifts and vacations, on the other hand, the holidays generally mean people bragging to their family about gains. So this could lead to a post-Christmas pump fairly easily as new capital floods the market.
For more information feel free to ask!
Gold's sharp rise at the start of the weekMonday 27 November 2023, Asian session, gold rose significantly until it touched 2018, making an increase of +$16 from the open price. after October prices failed to break above 2000. This early week we traded gold above 2000 (last time in May). It is not surprising that the movement of gold was predicted last week, when US data was not strong enough to strengthen DXY and 10YT. Traders is showing a response to the Fed's future policy direction to end the cycle of increasing interest rates and start easing next year. a weaker USD makes gold cheaper against currencies.
We can call this week FOMC week because starting today (Tuesday) many Fed officials will provide statements regarding macroeconomic conditions.
On the other hand, this week there will also be the release of GDP and PCE data as a benchmark for the rate of inflation. Of course, this week will be volatile week because there are unwritten data (Fed Statement) and release of written data that is needed to analyze prices.
IMO, there is room for consolidation that needs to be considered, including 2016, 2009, 2005, and the psychological number 2000. if failed break above 2016 we will see the possibility that price will consolidate or retrace to that key level. if pass 2016 there is 2020 or 2030 as nearest resistance.
Oil Market Outlook Week #48 - Time to Trade the range ?Oil Market Outlook & USOIL Breakdown - Week #48
The Oil market after rejecting the end of Q3 2023 Highs around the 90 to 95$ range has suffered in the fourth quarter of the year.
The price of USOIL mimicking the one of the Western Texas Intermediate has closed week 47 with a price of $75.13.
Here is a brief breakdown of the recent fundamental changes & news that affected he market and their reflections in the price action seen on the daily graph.
1. Under-supply zone
The strong rejection seen in the month of October is synonym of prices that offer high incentives to both the extraction and refining industries that compose the supply-chain of petroleum products, these prices stimulate these physical assets to be run at full capacity as to minimize the ratio of variable costs to revenues generated.
Additionally, the spreads with alternative energy sources are contracted enough to enable for discretionary blending to be seen in alternative fuels industries, discretionary blending is the portion of the industry that blends and refines bio fuels only when its product can be sold competitively in the market versus traditional energy sources such as oil of course.
Moreover the inverse structure that was present in the Brent market signaling a lack of stocks at hand of crude brent oil was brought back to a quasi flat curve by substitution of Brent with American oil as reflected in the convergence between the two front months in Brent (coming from an inverse to flat) and in WTI futures (coming from a carry to flat).
2. Strong Technical Signal
October was also particularly important in terms of fundamentals in the market. Sentiment improved drastically as OPEC even amid the war in the middle-east is seemingly unable to effectively manipulate oil prices by way of cutting supply, very similarly to how Central banks drive economic policy by cutting or raising Interest rates.
This sentiment is clearly reflected in the price action as we see a fast triple cross in the daily EMAs (10; 20; 100) indicating a strong trend reversal.
3. Failed OPEC meeting on supply cuts
During the month of November OPEC was bound to meet to announce new supply cuts. However, this meeting never materialized, in fact it was completely cancelled, and no new supply cuts were announced. Market talks indicate that the middle-east region is maintaining current supply of oil to accumulate cash flow and further buy sovereign debt in the international markets amid worldwide geopolitical concerns.
This strong fundamental signal was perceived strongly by the market where investors pushed the price lower, breaking and consolidating below the $80 per barrel zone.
An important technical and fundamental victory for the bears.
MARKET OUTLOOK WEEK 48
4. Technical support & price discovery level
Positioning in the market will be key moving forward towards the end of the year.
The 72 to 68 $ range is an important technical support were demand for oil and paper products such as OTC forward contracts on oil deliveries are quite popular and offer an important level of price testing.
The approach the price action will have to this range in my opinion will be key to understanding the orderflow and sentiment driving the market.
From this range we will understand if the market is bound to range between the 80-85$ and 60-70$ range, in such case our approach to the market will be considerably different than if the market decides to push lower to test sanction’s price levels around the 60-65$ zone.
5. OPEC oversupply & Strong Western Demand
In fact the 60$ mark represent a very important oversupply zone for OPEC+ that would be obliged to further cut its supply of oil to preserve its main industry’s margins and at the same time it represents an extremely high demand zone from the EU specifically but also the US as it is the level at which Black sea and Russian oil is admissible for trade in the West, given the winter approaching it would also be the level at which western countries would decide to stock up for the season. In order to understand that a study of the futures curve would be appropriate.
MARKET APPROACH
We would approach the markets only in the eventuality of non-extreme volatility move, the extreme volatility move clearly potentially happening to the downside does not represent a sensible trade opportunity for us as entering and exiting such trade at the correct time would be extremely difficult in a market that below $70 could enter an extreme demand zone that would immediately push the prices higher again and further contribute to volatility.
On the other hand, in the eventuality of further news from OPEC intentions to cut supply, stocks drawdown potential or China’s economy ramping up production could lead the price to be bound in this 70 to 85 dollar range as illustrated by the top two potential scenarios drawn on the graph.
Given logical price action following some fundamental scenario, and combined with candlesticks patterns to optimize entries we could be looking at two potential trades within the range.
- Short position @ 79.5 with stoploss above 83.75$ with a price target near 71$ offering a larger than 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio
- Long position entered in the range 70-71.5$ with price target 79.5 with stoploss around 66.5$ offering a higher than 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio
Dear all,
I would like to remind you that this is not a financial advice in any way shape or form.
It is my opinion and my opinion only published to entertainment and educational purposes.
I hope this market analysis was helpful to you if so please consider subscribing I would like to start livestreaming soon on this platform.
Thank you
Detailed analysis of BTC price and halvings since its inceptionHello everyone, I would like to present what repeatability can be determined in more detail by analyzing the BTC chart, taking into account the 3 halvings we experienced and the fourth which lies ahead.
We have a log BTC chart from 2011 to today in front of us.
We will start by designating the places where BTC has done its halving, as you can see, the first halving took place in November 2012, the second halving in June 2016, the third halving in May 2020, and we also mark the halving which should be in April 2024 .
On the other hand, we mark the middle between the halves with white lines.
We will use a green box to mark the gaps between the edible and the other half so that we can see this space and repetition more clearly.
For the analysis, we will use the blue lines which represent the way btc moves, one line indicates the lowest price points, and we can see that btc touches the line repeatedly, and in the same way we can mark the places where price has reached its ATH.
It is worth noting that with the first halving, btc fell by about 86% from its ATH
on the second halving he was down about 84% from his ATH
with a 3 fold reduction, the decrease from ATH so far is about 74%.
The current low is 74% where the blue line is, but BTC sometimes has a quick dip in the candlestick which could be around 82% from the ATH.
Given the repeatability between halves, the current maximum opening should be around $ 10,500, however, here we have confirmation of the low at $15,200, which gives a decline of 78%.
Now we use the mean measure tool marked with the purple line and we can see that every time we cut it in half, as the average goes through half the period to half, the cane consolidates and then the price drops below our purple line.
Moving on, we also see that after each drop below average around the half of the halving, the price started to rebound and break the first trend denoted by the white line as well as exiting the yellow area, then breaking the second trend and exiting the second yellow area.
Thus, breaking the first trend is a pro-growth period, and breaking the second trend is a pro-growth period followed by price increases.
Currently, we have not yet broken the first trend, given the cyclical nature of btc and the fact that large capital is distributed similarly and often all negative news is already included in the price, we can assume that the situation will repeat itself. After breaking the second trend and breaking above the average, the price will start rising again.
Finally, we present a visualization of how the btc price may possibly move to the next halving in the coming time, we mark the path that the price may follow with a white line.
Based on available data, we know that the difference between ATH is approximately 6.25 times in each cycle. However, the percentage increase from trough to peak in each subsequent cycle decreases by almost 6 times.
Taking into account all the data, we can predict that in the current cycle the BTC price could reach a level ranging from $70,000 to $99,000, which is marked with the blue zone on the chart. However, as it is already widely known, work on an ETF for BTC is underway, a positive decision to issue such an ETF could completely change the market and take it to new levels. And taking into account the first gold ETF that gave a price increase of 10X, in a similar situation the BTC price could increase to huge levels in the orange zone to the levels of $ 170,000 - $ 225,000.
However, the BTC ETF can also be a threat, when it is rejected it can have a very negative impact on the entire market.
Please remember that these are not investment recommendations, everyone is responsible for their financial games, these are just our observations about the market and how the price moves.
ADA perspective for short - med termThis is not a signal to buy/sell. NFA
We see the price nowdays are way harder than usual to analyze, "big boys" wont be easy because of sentiment #etf and #halving2024. They'll and still manipulating the price because they wanna control it.
Dont be fanatic or being bullboy, this price has been abnormal hiking without any healthy correction. Better to stay away and dont be FOMO! Or those "big boys" just laughing and enjoying your money.
Good luck, Smart Trader!
2023The chart you see is the EURUSD but this post isn't just about euro but it will be a key player coming into next yr.
It's been a year of CB's but where do we head next?
BOE raising rates 3.5%, with the split vote as we head into 2023 expect a large recession going forward as all CB's have raised rates they are hiking a little bit too much and yes they will have to cut as we head into the recession but hiking could actually be a mistake but we obviously don't control what CB's will do and CPI is declining 11.1% it dropped to 10.7% cost of petrol, tobacco etc Food prices are rising. It is a great amount 10% core inflation isn't excelling it's still at those areas. Raising rates, it takes time to come into transition. Now don't forget we've got strikes such as rail strikes, it isn't busy with retail sales aren't excelling people can't get into these stores and less people are spending.
FOMC: Raising rates 0.25% keep rates higher 2023 5.1% expectation of rate. Very hawkish, headline inflation 7.1% lowering CPI. These rate hikes are working. The market rallied S&P, it declined. Rate hikes are pacing themselves, we could even get cuts mid next year stop hiking rates, recession. It will take more evidence for inflation is on downward path, in reality it is declining. Perhaps its due to core inflation. The dot plot was the main move. It's 4.5%, they want 5.1%. No cuts in 2023, that's the questionable bit as well. Now market did rally before thinking there would be cut sooner 2023 well the dot plot differs in that view. 17 out 19 for 5.1% members. Last 3 months it has raised. That's interesting. Labour market jobs available and working 3.5 million it is very tight. When going into recession there's cost cutting, further reduction of employees = Recession. Job cuts are here tech sector, finance sector etc. Wages stay high, no demand disruption. May sustain high inflation. The need keeping rates higher for longer, extending the demand disruptions. Hiring was very difficult in first place, are workers going to extend the cut of workers? Time will tell.
ECB hiked as all CB's are. Anybody who thinks this is a pivot, is wrong. 50 basis point hikes pace for period of time EU indices fell. Very hawkish. They are lagging compared to other CB's, current rate 2.5%. Now bare in mind they do have to think of other countries but they are behind compared to others, the large bear move came. Quantitative tightening in May extends.
We had CPI's, we've had of this year CB's. Year ends all CB's hawkish. The markets SPX and other EUR indices rallying but it hasn't happened the Grinch came out, you can see in my previous posts I wasn't confident at all we could head higher especially SPX this can be seen through previous posts. I expect this to continue. Don't forget you got China think about as well reopening, it's interesting time there. Overall regarding the market, we already see housing having issues, there's another country that has my key interest it's Mexico, will manufacturing move further away from China and head a little to Mexico? USDMXN interesting FX pair I am going to keep an eye on for next year. Regarding market overall, I am bearish DXY for the next 6 months in my humble opinion . I feel shorter term, for sure a pull back but I think longer term: GBP we could hit back to 1.30/1.35 areas, EUR 1.15/1.20, XAG 30-35, keep an eye on other euro minor pairs could extend further a lot more in gains than others and yes I will even mention crypto 8-10k Bitcoin seems a good support area! If we technically stay above those areas, could be a good time to buy but that market overall has a lot of reinforcement to make regarding the regulations. The market doesn't go in straight line that's where technicals come in. Last year I expected we get higher DXY - we achieved that but this time I'm on the flip side...embrace yourself for recession.
Happy Holidays & Get ready to smash 2023.
Trade Journal
Financial Trader | Empowering Your Trading Journey
Disclaimer: Not Investment Advice Or Signal Provider
EUR USD IdeaGood morning, traders! Ithe EUR/USD pair has recently reached what we perceive as its peak, prompting a strategic decision to lock in profits. Despite this cautious move, the sentiment remains bearish on EUR/USD. The possibility of a bullish market shift, particularly if market makers decide to push toward higher targets, is acknowledged. However, for now, the current position stands in modest profit from the sale.
all target done in welspunall target done in Welspun as on 19/Oct/2023
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MKR/USDT 4HInterval ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the MKR chart on a four-hour interval. Let's start with the blue lines marking the upward trend channel, in which the price has locally entered a falling triangle formation, but currently we can see an attempt to exit the ongoing triangle at the top and an attempt to return to the previously prevailing upward channel.
When we unfold the Fib Retracement grid, we can see that the recent price decline was maintained by a strong support zone from $1,236 to $1,124, but now the price has returned higher, above the visible support at $1,396.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the resistance areas that the price must face. And here we see that the price is currently fighting the resistance at $1,451, only when it breaks above it will it move again towards the strong resistance zone at $1,566 to $1,654.
The CHOP index indicates that there is more and more energy for the move, the RSI indicator is growing again after a slight recovery, while the STOCH indicator exceeds the upper limit, which may slow down the current upward movement or result in a new rebound.
BTC/USDT 1DInterval ChartHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC in the USDT pair, taking into account the one-day time frame. First, we will use blue lines to mark the local upward trend channel in which the BTC price is moving at the upper limit.
To check where we are, we will use the Fib Retracement tool. And here a strong resistance zone should be marked, which in the long term blocks the price from $35,677 to $41,195, what's more, it is also the upper limit of the currently marked channel, only after we exit this zone upwards, we should see it tested and then a possible upward movement towards resistance at $48,107.
However, when this zone rejects the price and a larger correction begins, we may see the price return to the strong support zone from $32,715 to $29,404. only when the price breaks through the bottom, we still have the second zone from $24,119 to $20,285.
After turning on the EMA Cross 50 and 200 indicator, it is clearly visible that the price remains in a very strong upward trend, although we may see a correction in the coming days.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that energy is being collected again, on the RSI indicator we are moving at the upper limit, similarly to the STOCH indicator, which may also affect the price recovery after the recent increases.
stock telling what to dostock it, self-telling what can move except from that.
high-debt company
micro cap company
Market Cap
₹ 60.9 Cr.
Current Price
₹ 66.1
High / Low
₹ 71.8 / 38.2
Stock P/E
9.99
Book Value
₹ 37.8
Dividend Yield
0.00 %
ROCE
8.69 %
ROE
3.74 %
Face Value
₹ 10.0
Industry PE
31.1
EPS
₹ 6.63
Debt to equity
1.17
Price to book value
1.72
Debt
₹ 40.6 Cr.
EBIT
₹ 9.91 Cr.
Cash End
₹ 0.95 Cr.
Reserves
₹ 25.6 Cr.
Quick ratio
0.63
Current ratio
1.18
PEG Ratio
NPM last year
0.59 %
OPM
5.95 %
CMP / FCF
10.2
Intrinsic Value
₹ 74.2
Return on assets
1.00 %
EV / EBIT
10.1
no recommendation from me to buy or sell
The Timeless Abyss of Trading: The Greatest Trap Of All-timeI am here with a unique topic. It is about a psychological trading trap called the cycle of doom. What got me interested in this psychological topic? Well, there are very few articles about it. You can count them on one hand, and more than 90% of traders are losing money.
Most traders find their method of trading. What stops them from becoming profitable traders? Tradingview platform is one of the biggest charting platforms that provide an educational section and editorial peak for traders to sharpen their knowledge related to technical analysis, trading methodology, trading psychology, etc.
As a trader, we are making market memories by improving screen time, practicing technical analysis, analyzing option data(if applicable), and a lot more. Why do we still fall short in applying in real time? What stops us from becoming a profitable trader? Something looks missing out!
I would like to draw your attention to the psychological trap cycle of doom, a topic discussed by only a few traders. Let me be clear, I do believe that this topic is universally applicable!
The cycle of doom is made up of three phases:
The search
The Action
The Blame
"Sun Tzu said Know the enemy and know yourself in a hundred battles you will never be in peril."
In order to exit from the loop of the cycle, we have to understand the parts of the cycle.
1) The Search:
Probably, it's the first phase of the cycle. Just recall your initial stages of trading. You were finding a trading strategy to make money out of the money. You may have asked to friend, watched a YouTube video, read an article on Tradingview, bought a book or course or indicators, or purchased the strategy. At that time, you were entered into the cycle.
Additionally, we should never trade for enjoyment but treat it as a business. The statement does not apply to the initial stages. Trader explores new methods, theories, and systems.
Postulate, Trader A uses X theory to do their day trading for a living, and you were impressed and took it to put your money on it, or you found the method by yourself. The trader will switch his next position after finding a system that is convenient for his trading and trusts that he can take minimal risks to achieve expected returns.
2) The Action:
The Action phase is the second phase of the cycle. Now, you have a trading system that will make your money grow to expected returns. This phase can be super exciting for traders as they believe he has an edge and is most likely a key to opening a present of unrealistic returns.
Issues arise when a trader employs their strategy without supporting evidence, like backtesting results. Your heart may be pounding, and your fingers may be trembling like a child, but it doesn't mean you should directly trade the strategy without checking the results, failure, and performance of the system.
Just five percent of traders actually test a trading system before putting it into action. You might discover that the trading system performs well for a prolonged period. Suddenly, a drawdown appeared! At a certain point, everything may seem bleak. While profits might flow in initially, eventually, the losing trades start to accumulate.
It's a red signal for traders that their trading system is now on oxygen. I don't think traders can trust the system after a big streak of losing traders. You have entered into the blame phase.
3) The Blame:
The Blame is the final stage of the cycle. As we discussed, the trader has lost their trust in his trading system, which was a holy grail for him at the initial stage. The Red portfolio hurts more than a break-up. The trader is not happy with the system as it has wiped out the gain + trading capital, and the trading system is the only cause that affected the profit and wants to remove the system and search for a new strategy.
4) Loop of the cycle:
As can be seen, the trader again finds a new strategy and makes an effort and action on it, then blames the system. The cycle repeats and traps the trader in this way.
How to get out of the cycle?
1. Modification is the only way to survival & Trust the system:
Traders should modify their strategy according to market conditions, instruments, and trading style. Maybe not everything works for everyone. Therefore, traders should do this according to him. For example, I use Elliott wave theory as the first base and price action as a confirmation tool along with different indicators according to the situation. I do modify Elliott and price action as per my observation of price moves and wavelength.
2. Backtesting is the holy grail:
Choosing trading theory also depends on traders' mindset, risk-aptitude, and expected return. Scalpers will never check the PE, P/S, or EV/EBITDA ratio of the firm just because of their duration and risk-reward calculation.
After choosing an appropriate trading strategy, traders should backtest their trading strategy before doing real-market transaction. We have the advantage of backtesting tools, algo, and virtual account, which was not available for pit traders.
3. Risk management:
Already many ideas are available on this topic. The trading system should be giving proper returns as per the taken risk unless it is nothing more than Drilling a well in the desert.
I need more time to write a full idea on the escape of the cycle of doom.
Thank you!
@Money_Dictators
TOMO/USDT 4HInterval Chart ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the TOMO chart in the pair to USDT, as before on the four-hour interval. First, we will use the yellow line to identify a strong upward trend line, which, as we can see, the price has broken with a dynamic downward movement. At this point, however, it is worth adding a second line, thus defining the upward trend channel, in which, when we determine the height of the channel, we can see that the price drop is very close to the height of the channel itself.
Going further, we can move on to marking support areas when we start a larger correction. For this purpose, we will use the Fib Retracement tool, based on the recent upward movement, we can see that the price has returned to a very strong support at the level of $1.15, which is trying to maintain the price, while we still have support at the level of $0.95.
Looking the other way, we see that the price has a significant resistance zone on its upward path from $1.28 to $1.40, only later it will be able to move towards the very strong resistance at $1.73.
Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that most of the energy has been used, the RSI indicator has rebounded from the lower limit, but it is worth being careful whether it is a false break, because the STOCH indicator shows that there is still room for the price to go lower.
XAU 4HAfter a very good rise due to the war, gold reached the important range of $2000, which it could not cross, and with the normalization of the war for gold, it could not pass two thousand and went down. It is currently in the support zone and in my opinion, it will first have an upward correction and then it will descend towards 1923.
MO Altria Group possible A=C plus bear flag Let's discuss it.Hi ,
Well, first of all, it's important to note that I have an open position in this dividend-paying stock because I want to hold it for the long term.
However, we should not ignore the fact that we will start wave C of a possible ABC correction soon. We can also see a bear flag shape. Both have a price target of ~$14 to $15.
Regarding the fundamentals, some important things:
Traditional tobacco companies have to face the fact that their products are becoming more and more expensive, thus many people buy cheaper products.
Vapor and liquid alternatives are increasingly popular among the younger generation. Because they are fragrant, tasty and cheaper.
Although these companies have made a lot of profit in the past decades, they are now facing another challenge. If they want to stay competitive, they have to develop to catch up with their competitors who produce products based on new technologies.
Altria Group is constantly working to achieve this. However, the transformation of the production technology and the necessary permits (e.g. FDA) are essential for its success. It's all money and time.
All in all, I think that stocks of traditional tobacco companies are still a good long-term investment. However, it should be taken into account that they may underperform in the coming months. And they can hit new lows.
That's why I didn't use all my resources that I intended for this stock. Because if we actually reach the ~$15 zone, then I want to significantly increase my position size there.
Please tell me what you think about it. And share your thoughts.
Do not forget. This does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before entering a position.