Get started

Fundamental-analysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for November 15, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fifth consecutive session following the release of Japan's Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The USD/JPY pair's upside potential is supported by a strong US Dollar (USD). Traders are also preparing for the release of US retail sales data for October, due later on Friday. Japan's preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, matching market expectations. On an annualized basis, the country's GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.9%, beating the market consensus forecast of 0.7%, but showing a sharp slowdown from the 2.2% growth recorded in the second quarter. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Friday that he will take appropriate measures against excessive currency fluctuations. Kato emphasized the importance of stable exchange rate movements reflecting economic fundamentals and expressed concern about unilateral sharp fluctuations in the market. Meanwhile, Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said he expects the moderate economic recovery to continue, fueled by rising employment and wages. However, Akazawa also emphasized the need to keep a close eye on potential downside risks to the global economy and volatility in financial and capital markets. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell XAU/USD (Gold) Bearish ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2560, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2524 2nd Support – 2501 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
4
Sell XAG/USD (Silver) Bearish ChannelThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 30.40, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 29.50 2nd Support – 29.10 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
Possible USD Strength Continuation?Here's the revised trading plan with the requested adjustments: 1 . Baseline Scenario : - Macro-Fundamental Bias: Neutral to Slightly Dovish . The Federal Reserve has recently lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75%, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing. While inflation remains somewhat elevated, the Fed is balancing its dual mandate of supporting employment and controlling inflation. Current market expectations indicate a 59% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the December meeting, down from 82.5%. - Short Term Sentiment Bias: Bullish . The short-term sentiment on the USD is bullish, driven by Fed Chair Powell's recent comments on the strong economy and solid job market, which have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. 2. Risk Event Baseline : - Market Expectations: - Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.5%) - Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3% (Previous 0.4%) 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Positive Surprise : - Plan: If retail sales figures exceed expectations, this will likely reinforce the bullish sentiment on the USD. Consider increasing long positions in USD pairs, particularly against currencies with dovish central banks. Additionally, look for opportunities in sectors that benefit from strong consumer spending, such as retail and consumer discretionary stocks. - Negative Surprise : - Plan: If retail sales figures come in below expectations, the market reaction is expected to be muted given the current sentiment. Maintain existing positions but be prepared to adjust if subsequent data or Fed communications indicate a shift in the economic outlook. Monitor for any signs of weakening consumer confidence or spending that could impact broader market sentiment.
TVC:DXYLong
by Midas_Macro
A Weaker pound? 1. Baseline Scenario - Macro-Fundamental Bias Dovish. The Bank of England has cut rates by 25bps to 4.75%, with expectations of further cuts due to slowing inflation. Markets are pricing in two 25bps cuts by the end of 2025 with a 92% chance of a third 25bps cut, dispite the Labour Government's fiscal policy expected to be reflationary. There is also a 15% chance of a 25bps rate cut in December. - Short Term Sentiment Bias : Neutral. The pound is moving flat on an index level, indicating no strong short-term sentiment driving the price. 2. Risk Event Baseline - Event Description : Upcoming UK GDP data releases. - Monthly GDP (m/m) forecast: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Preliminary GDP (q/q) forecast: 0.2% (previous: 0.5%). - Market Expectations : Markets are anticipating a slowdown in economic growth, with the preliminary GDP forecast significantly lower than the previous quarter. 3. Surprise Scenarios: - Negative Surprise: - Plan: If GDP data misses forecasts, reinforce bearish positions on GBP pairs. A weaker-than-expected GDP print could act as a catalyst for further pound selling, aligning with the dovish macro outlook and expectations of additional rate cuts.
Short
by Midas_Macro
1
Buy NZD/JPY Descending Triangle The NZD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 91.65 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 92.11 2nd Resistance – 92.34 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 14, 2024 GBPUSDGBP/USD extends its decline to 1.26850 in Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US dollar (USD) rally to the highest level since November 2023 is putting pressure on the major pair. Later on Thursday, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech. Data released by the US Department of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, rising 2.6% year-on-year in October. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 3.3% y/y in October, matching the forecast. Markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue cutting rates at its next meeting in December. “The Consumer Price Index offered no surprises, so for now the Fed will continue to cut rates in December. However, next year is a different story given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and other Trump administration measures,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Fed officials remain cautious about cutting rates. On Wednesday, Dallas Fed Chairwoman Laurie Logan said the U.S. central bank should be cautious about further interest rate cuts so as not to inadvertently ignite inflation. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said stagnant inflation figures make it difficult for the U.S. central bank to cut rates further. Traders are raising bets on another quarter percent rate cut in December, albeit at a slower pace, before mid-2025. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 13, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair remains under pressure on Wednesday, holding just above the 1.06000 level during Asian trading hours. This will mark the fourth consecutive day of losses for the Euro as the pair continues to experience downward momentum. The main factor contributing to the recent EUR/USD weakness is the strength of the US Dollar (USD). The implementation of US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed fiscal policy could stimulate investment, increase government spending and boost labor demand. However, such a surge in economic activity could also increase inflation risks. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated Tuesday that the central bank remains confident in its fight against transitory inflation, but cautioned that it is too early to declare complete victory. Kashkari also noted that the Fed will refrain from modeling the economic impact of Trump's policies until there is more clarity on the specifics of those policies. Traders are now focused on the upcoming release of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday for further guidance on future U.S. policy. The core consumer price index (CPI) for October is expected to rise 2.6% year-over-year and core CPI is expected to rise 3.3%. According to a recent study by the London School of Economics and Political Science, imposing 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods, as advocated by Trump, could have a 0.1 percent negative impact on European Union (EU) gross domestic product (GDP). This potential slowdown in economic growth in Europe could further reduce the Euro's momentum against the US Dollar. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Buy AUD/JPY BreakoutThe AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 101.15 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 101.83 2nd Resistance – 102.30 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
Sell AUD/CAD @ Bearish FlagThe AUD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.9140, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.9093 2nd Support – 0.9058 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
12
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 12, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) managed to strengthen slightly against its US counterpart in Tuesday's Asian session, but looks like it could weaken further. Japan's fragile minority government is expected to make it difficult for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten monetary policy. Moreover, the BoJ's summary of opinions from its October meeting showed that policymakers were divided on whether to raise interest rates again. This, along with fears of President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs returning, is putting pressure on the Japanese yen. Trump's policies and corporate tax cuts should put upward pressure on inflation, which could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to ease policy. This, in turn, supports rising US Treasury yields and confirms a negative outlook for the low-yielding JPY in the near term. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, maintains the positive trend that followed Trump's victory in the US presidential election and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the upside. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 11, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair starts the new week on a softer note, although it fails to find continued selling and remains range-bound around the 1.29000 mark amid mixed fundamentals. The US Dollar (USD) is holding below the four-month high reached last week amid expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will spur inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to aggressively ease policy. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for GBP/USD, although the Bank of England's hawkish stance is helping to limit rate cuts. In fact, the Bank of England has warned that the expansive Autumn Budget presented by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to spur inflation, suggesting a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025. In addition, risk-on sentiment is helping to limit the rise of the safe-haven US Dollar and providing some support for the GBP/USD pair, allowing for some caution before making aggressive bearish bets. Investors also seem reluctant and may prefer to stand back ahead of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and US. This week's economic calendar includes UK employment data on Tuesday, US consumer inflation data and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, followed by preliminary UK Q3 GDP and US retail sales on Friday. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.29000, if the level is fixed below consider Sell positions, if the level bounces back consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bitcoin hits new all-time high amid U.S. elections!Yesterday, November 6, 2024, the U.S. presidential election results were announced, and the race was won by Donald Trump, a strong advocate for cryptocurrency! During his campaign, on September 18, 2024, the current U.S. leader made a bold move toward the digital asset community by treating supporters to burgers at PubKey in New York, paid for in Bitcoin. During the voting and after the results were announced, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) demonstrated a rapid surge. Starting around $68,000, Bitcoin broke past $76,000, hitting a historical peak and posting an impressive 12% gain within just 24 hours! In addition to the support from the leader of one of the world’s top nations, cryptocurrency has plenty more cards up its sleeve. Key growth factors and expert insights: Institutional investor interest: Major corporations and institutional investors continue to increase their Bitcoin investments, supporting high demand and limited supply in the market. For example, well-known company MicroStrategy (#MSTR) acquired 5,445 BTC for $150 million from August through late September! Rising demand amid economic uncertainty: With inflation on the rise, geopolitical instability, and volatility in traditional markets, investors are seeking more stable assets. Bitcoin, alongside gold (XAUUSD), is becoming a preferred choice for capital preservation. Expectations of U.S. Fed policy easing: With potential interest rate cuts on the horizon, interest in cryptocurrencies as alternative assets is increasing. Experts estimate an 87% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting, creating additional incentives for investing in BTC and other crypto assets. Positive analyst forecasts: The projected minimum Bitcoin price in January 2025 is $71,468, with an average of $78,168 and a maximum of $80,402. By December, these figures are expected to rise to $106,235, $109,213, and $124,937, respectively. Growth is anticipated to remain steady, without declines or corrections, throughout the year. On September 19, 2024, FreshForex analysts highlighted the undeniable growth drivers for the entire crypto sector. With Trump at the helm of the U.S., crypto growth is practically inevitable! Don’t miss your chance!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Buy GBP/JPY Triangle BreakoutThe GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position Above The Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 197.44 Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 199.20 2nd Resistance – 200.20 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below Support Zone. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
11
How the U.S. Election Could Impact USD and EUR/USD Trading"As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s time to consider how it might impact our trading strategies, particularly with the U.S. dollar and EUR/USD. Political shifts bring market volatility, so let’s break down how each outcome could influence the dollar and the EUR/USD pair. Election Outcomes and Market Impact 1. If Democrats Win: A Democratic victory could weaken the dollar, as policies may lead to lower inflation and reduced real interest rates. This scenario might push the EUR/USD pair higher, with potential targets around 1.1300–1.1850. For traders, this could mean a favorable environment to consider EUR/USD gains. 2. If Republicans Win: On the other hand, a Republican win might initially strengthen the dollar, thanks to expected trade policies and rising interest rates. However, this strength could be short-lived. Long-term factors may introduce volatility, potentially giving the euro a chance to regain ground against the dollar. Key Levels to Watch in EUR/USD From a technical standpoint, keep an eye on resistance levels from 1.1275 to 1.1750 for potential bullish moves, while support around 1.1000 and a critical level at 1.0900 could indicate a downturn. Combining these levels with election news can help you make informed trade adjustments. How to Trade Before, During, and After the Election Leading up to the election, watch for narrowing polls, as this could introduce uncertainty and increased volatility. During the election itself, expect the market to react strongly—prepare for a Trump win to potentially strengthen the dollar and a Harris victory to have the opposite effe
by Market-Analyzer
SBI Cards Stock AnalysisAnalysis of SBI Cards Stock Idea Current Price: ₹697.40 Technical Overview: * Double Bottom pattern with breakout. Target Levels: * ₹850 (initial) * ₹1,000 (extended) * ₹1,100 (ultimate) * Strong support around ₹650-₹700 from breakout zone. Fundamentals: * Leading credit card issuer in India with strong revenue and profit growth. * Positioned to benefit from growing digital payment adoption in India. * Key risks include exposure to credit defaults, but SBI backing mitigates risk. This could be a solid opportunity if the trend holds. Join Now: buff.ly
NSE:SBICARDLong
by TheWealthyInvestorbyDSAB
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. I'm looking potentially buy trade opportunity today, by using support and resistance and price action. And we are using volume and RSI indicator. Let's see what happens and which trade opportunity market will give us. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis or prediction. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
Sell EUR/GBP Channel BreakoutThe EUR/GBP pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.8392, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.8340 2nd Support – 0.8305 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 0.8422. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
Sell AUD/JPY Bearish ChannelThe AUD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 100.25, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 99.48 2nd Support – 99.11 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 100.75. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
5
KPGEL Diwali Pick 2024Stock Analysis and Trade Setup This chart shows the stock breaking out of a long-term downward channel, suggesting a potential trend reversal: • Bullish Setup : The price has broken above the descending channel, indicating bullish momentum. A strong consolidation above the support level around 631.1 could confirm this breakout. If the price maintains this upward trend, the next resistance at 716.75 would be the primary target, followed by further gains if momentum persists. • Bearish Scenario : If the price fails to hold above 631.1, there could be a retest of lower levels. Watch for a potential short entry below the key support level at 525.9, as a breakdown could signal a continuation of the downtrend. The RSI indicates room for further upside, and increasing volume supports the bullish breakout. Monitor these levels closely for entry and exit signals. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
BSE:KPGELLong
by tintinhawk
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 1, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) retreated from its recent gains following the release of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from Jibun Bank and S&P Global on Friday. However, the USD/JPY pair declined as the yen strengthened following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that increased the likelihood of a rate hike in December. Jibun Bank's headline PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector came in at 49.2 in October, down from 49.7 in September. This composite single-digit reading indicates that Japan's manufacturing output continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, with the pace of decline in output and new order inflows more pronounced. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy to achieve the price target in a sustainable and stable manner. Traders await the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to add 113,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004