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Fundamental Market Analysis for January 31, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) underwent heavy selling during the Asian session on Tuesday and pulled back from the six-week high reached the previous day against its US counterpart. Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which in turn undermines the Japanese yen. In addition, a good rebound in US Treasury bond yields was another factor pushing flows away from the low-yielding yen. The recovery of the US dollar is adding to the pressure on the yen, reducing its attractiveness. Nevertheless, a significant decline in the yen seems unlikely amid bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. On the contrary, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, which in turn could serve as a headwind for US bond yields, the dollar and the currency pair. Investors continue to monitor developments, including upcoming speeches by Fed and BoJ officials, as well as the publication of key economic indicators that could affect the future dynamics of USD/JPY. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAU/USD (Gold) Triangle Breakout (30.01.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 2785 2nd Resistance – 2794 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
33
GBP/JPY Triangle Breakout (29.1.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 191.77 2nd Support – 191.00 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
38
GBP/USD Wedge Breakout (30.1.2025)The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.2519 2nd Resistance – 1.2571 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 30, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher around 1.24450 in the early hours of European trading on Thursday. The moderate decline in the US dollar is providing some support to the major pair. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the preliminary US gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter (Q4), due for release later today. GBP/USD spun in a tight circle on Wednesday, briefly dipping into the 1.24000 area after the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged. Interest rate futures markets generally predicted no movement on interest rates as the Fed sees little reason to rush into further rate cuts. The second half of the trading week will see the release of key U.S. data to see if the Fed did the right thing. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged as futures markets had predicted, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating that the Fed takes a data-dependent approach when adjusting rates. Fed Chairman Powell noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is closely watching what policies US President Donald Trump will pursue, but denied that the newly elected US President has been in direct contact with the Fed. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is closely monitoring what policies US President Donald Trump will pursue, but denied that the newly elected US president has had direct contact with the Fed. As an independent federal agency, the White House has little influence over policy recommendations made by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Powell also noted that while inflation is still trending toward the medium target level, the current economic landscape, as well as some concerns about the sweeping trade policies pursued by US President Trump, mean that the Fed is in no hurry to adjust the restrictive nature of rates. Betting markets have lowered their bets on a Fed rate cut in 2025. According to CME's FedWatch tool, rate futures markets are pricing in no change in the federal funds rate until June at the earliest. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.24500, when fixing above it consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR RALLY ON ECB MEETING?Trading Plan for ECB Rate Decision 1. BASELINE 📊 - Market Expectations for Interest Rates: The market is anticipating a rate cut by the ECB, with a forecasted main refinancing rate of **2.90%** down from **3.15%**. The STIR markets have priced in a 50 bps cut, suggesting strong expectations for a reduction. - Upcoming Event Predictions: Consensus is that the ECB will cut rates by either 25 bps or 50 bps to stimulate the economy due to lower inflation and weaker-than-expected growth. - Trend Analysis: The ECB has been lowering rates since last year in response to economic challenges. This trend is likely to continue. - Pre-positioning Observation: The flat movement in the proprietary euro index suggests cautious pre-positioning, indicating that significant moves might occur post-announcement. 2. SURPRISE⚡ : - 25 bps Cut: If the ECB cuts rates by **25 bps**, it could lead to an upside in the euro due to repricing, as the market has priced in a 50 bps cut. - 50 bps Cut: If the ECB cuts rates by **50 bps**, it might be seen as expected, leading to a less significant market reaction. 3. BIGGER PICTURE 🌐 - Short-term Play: If the ECB cuts rates by **25 bps**, initiate a short-term intraday trade on the predictable directional volatility, taking advantage of the potential upside in the euro due to repricing. - Long-term Play: The broader expectations for future interest rates remain unchanged, suggesting that neither scenario will alter the bigger picture significantly.
Long
by Midas_Macro
NVIDIA is DONE? Or it is a good entry point? NVIDIA: Analyzing the Recent Price Drop and Long-Term Prospects Greetings, this is Ronin. Today, we’ll dive into what happened yesterday with NVIDIA’s stock and why market panic is no reason to surrender. Let’s break down the situation step by step to understand the real drivers behind this decline. What Happened? Yesterday, the market was shaken by news from China: the development of a new artificial intelligence (AI) system that is cheaper to build and requires fewer computational resources. In response, NVIDIA’s stock plummeted, triggering concern among investors. The key issue fueling the sell-off was fear of an AI sector revaluation. After NVIDIA’s meteoric rise of +200–300% over the past two years, even the slightest doubt can cause significant price fluctuations. However, let’s not view the market through a lens of panic. Drops like this are temporary corrections, and here’s why NVIDIA remains a powerhouse in its industry. Market Volatility: A Natural Phenomenon Imagine a river encountering a sudden boulder. The current becomes turbulent, water splashes and roars, but eventually, the river finds its way forward. Similarly, in the market, fundamental news about technological breakthroughs can stir things up, but capital always flows back to strong, stable assets. Looking at NVIDIA’s chart, we can identify several local support levels where prices have repeatedly rebounded during past periods of market turbulence. These levels indicate that the current panic is not a collapse but rather a pullback within a long-term trend. Why NVIDIA Remains Strong Beyond Artificial Intelligence NVIDIA’s products are not limited to AI development; they are integral to numerous high-tech sectors: GPUs that are the gold standard in the gaming industry. Solutions for data centers, automotive industries, and cloud computing. Trump’s AI Investments Former President Donald Trump recently announced a $500 billion investment in the U.S. AI sector. This substantial funding will bolster domestic demand for NVIDIA’s products. Technological Leadership NVIDIA produces processors unmatched in performance. Even if Chinese AI outperforms in certain areas, no country will completely dethrone NVIDIA. Competition? Yes. Dominance? Unlikely. Long-Term Forecast Short-term pullbacks are a natural part of market cycles. When news sparks panic, assets that previously showed enormous growth inevitably experience corrections. However, this does not negate long-term potential. Key Figures: 2-Year Growth: +200–300%. Current Correction: -12% in a day. Long-Term Growth Outlook: NVIDIA’s annual revenue growth is still expected at 30–40%, according to analysts. NVIDIA’s stock drop is a temporary event driven by short-term revaluation. Once liquidity returns and the panic subsides, the stock is poised to resume its upward trajectory. Conclusion The market has always been a stage for emotions to play out. But a true trader knows: when everyone is panicking, it’s time to act. Chinese AI? It’s just another player entering the vast technological field. NVIDIA, on the other hand, remains a titan that sets the standard. Panic comes and goes, but trends endure. With NVIDIA, we’ll witness many more peaks. This is Ronin. See you at the top of the charts! 📈💎
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by StarTradePro
China strikes NVIDIA: The company loses nearly $500 billionThe stock price of #NVIDIA fell by 13.93%, closing at $118 on January 27 , following the success of Chinese startup DeepSeek in artificial intelligence. The plunge in NVIDIA’s shares was triggered by the rising prominence of DeepSeek, whose AI model R1 surpassed OpenAI in key metrics, raising concerns over the U.S.’s leadership in IT technologies. The market capitalization of companies like NVIDIA dropped by over $1 trillion. Last week, DeepSeek unveiled an updated model capable of providing reasoning-based answers, while its development costs remain significantly lower than those of competitors. This has raised doubts about the necessity of high investments in AI accelerators. Satya Nadella of Microsoft highlighted the importance of carefully analyzing developments from China. DeepSeek’s advancements have disrupted the AI market, leading to a sell-off of U.S. tech stocks. Futures on the NASDAQ-100 (#NQ100) fell by 4%, while shares of European and Japanese semiconductor and tech companies also declined. NVIDIA is facing significant market challenges, which are already impacting its future prospects. However, the demand for innovation may open new avenues for growth.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 28, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) weakened during the Asian session on Tuesday, moving away from the six-week high recorded earlier against the US dollar (USD). The weakening was driven by investor concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policy. Tougher rhetoric on trade tariffs, in particular statements about new duties, undermined the yen's position as a defensive asset. An additional pressure factor was the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which attracted capital flows into dollar assets. Amid the recovery of the US dollar, which reached the lowest level since 18 December, the USD/JPY pair approached 155.00. Despite the current weakness of the yen, analysts believe that its significant decline is unlikely. This is due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, supporting the national currency. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), according to forecasts, may cut interest rates twice in 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar. A rate cut could reduce the attractiveness of US assets and hamper further growth of the USD/JPY pair. Investors will closely follow macroeconomic data and speeches of central bankers. USD/JPY is expected to remain in the range of 154.50-155.50, but any change of rhetoric from the Fed or BoJ can significantly affect the market dynamics. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 155.00, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAG/USD Channel Breakout (28.1.2025)The XAG/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 29.26 2nd Support – 28.88 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
1
USD/JPY -H1- Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 154.30 2nd Support – 153.52 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
XAUUSD Analysis: Potential Bearish Pullback Towards Key Support📉 XAUUSD Daily Analysis 🔍 🚨 Potential for a Bearish Pullback 🚨 Gold (XAUUSD) is showing signs of a potential downward move after rejecting a key resistance level. If this momentum continues, we could see the price heading towards the support zone at 2680/2670. 💡 Key Insights: 📌 Market rejection at resistance = possible bearish momentum. 📌 Target support area: 2680/2670. 📌 Risk Management: Stick to 1-2% risk on trades. ⚠️ Historical Note: When the market last hit an all-time high, it saw a sharp one-day drop. Stay cautious! 💬 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
11
USD/CHF Poised for a Bullish Breakout: Path to Parity Bullish Scenario 🚀📈 1. Breakout Above the EMA (200) 🔺: If the price closes above the 200-week EMA (0.9082), it could confirm a long-term bullish trend reversal. A strong push may target key levels like 0.9500 and eventually 1.0000 (parity) 🎯, as shown by the projection arrow. 2. RSI Support 💪: The RSI above 50 indicates that buyers are gaining momentum. If RSI trends toward 70, it signals even stronger bullish momentum ✅📊. 3. Higher Highs and Higher Lows 📶: The chart is forming higher highs and higher lows, a classic signal of an uptrend. This pattern supports a move toward higher price levels 🚀. 🔥 Key Takeaway: A breakout above the EMA could spark a powerful rally, with parity (1.0000) as a major psychological target.
Long
by MrStellanSight
USD/JPY Market Update: Support Holds and Resistance Levels AheadUSD/JPY has held firm at the support level and is now returning to a buy zone. Currently, the market is at 156.500, with the next resistance level set at 159.000. I’ve explained the market clearly in my chart analysis for easier understanding. If anyone has questions, feel free to ask in the comments or send me a message in my inbox. Thank you for your support—like, comment, and follow for more updates!
by MrStellanSight
USDILS - At Clear Support Zone. Towards 3.61000?FOREXCOM:USDILS is at a support zone that has consistently acted as a reversal point for bearish trends. The current market structure suggests that this support zone could once again provide a potential buying opportunity—provided that there is clear bullish confirmation. If buyers confirm their presence with signals like long lower wicks or bullish engulfing patterns, we could see a move toward 3.61000. However, a break below this support would invalidate the bullish scenario and signal potential for further declines. Key Levels to Watch: Bullish Target: 3.61000 Stop Loss: Below the support zone Patience is crucial—wait for clear bullish confirmation before entering long positions. What’s your view on this setup? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by TrendDiva
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 27, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair starts the new week on a weaker note and loses some of Friday's strong gains to the psychological 1.25000 mark, or nearly three-week peak. Spot prices are currently trading around 1.24600, down 0.20% on the day amid modest US Dollar (USD) strength, although the decline is not accompanied by any selling or bearish conviction. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, is recovering from a more than one-month low amid a flight to safety triggered by US President Donald Trump's decision to impose duties on imports to Colombia. Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Colombia after the latter refused to allow two US military planes carrying deported migrants to land in the country. Trump also warned that the tariffs would be increased to 50 per cent next week if there was further non-compliance, fuelling fears of global trade wars and dampening investor appetite for riskier assets. However, significant US dollar strength seems unlikely amid rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut borrowing costs twice before the end of this year amid signs that US inflationary pressures are easing. Expectations were further heightened following comments by Trump last Thursday, who said he would call for an immediate cut in interest rates. This led to a fresh drop in US Treasury bond yields, which should curb further dollar strength. In addition, uncertainty over the prospects of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in February is helping to limit GBP/USD losses. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold Analysis Update: Resistance Levels and Market OutlookHello Everyone! How are you all? I hope everything is going great! I'm excited to announce my return with a new TradingView account. I hope you’ll show the same love and support as you did with my previous account. Gold Analysis I'm observing that gold is facing resistance at 2762 on the H1 chart. It has been retesting this level repeatedly and pulling back to 2756. If gold fails to break 2763 on the H4 candle, we can anticipate a bearish market movement in the next few hours. All targets are clearly explained in the chart above for your easy understanding. Please like, comment, follow, and support! Thank you for your love and encouragement! 🙏
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrStellanSight
3
Gold Price Forecast: Key Levels to Watch !!Gold Price Analysis: 🔑 Key Zones and 📉 Potential Reversal at MA200 1️⃣ Resistance Zone 🟥: The red-highlighted area marks a strong resistance zone. A breakout 🚀 above this level could lead to bullish momentum. 2️⃣ Liquidity Zones 💧: The "In LQ" region shows where liquidity may be resting, suggesting possible retracements or reversals near this point. 3️⃣ 200 EMA Support 📊: The MA200 (2,734.059) is a critical support level. A breakdown 🔻 here could send prices lower, testing further support levels. 📈 Potential Scenarios: 🔼 Bullish: Break above resistance 🟥 with higher highs. 🔽 Bearish: Rejection from resistance 🟥 leading to a drop toward the MA200 support 📉. Watch these levels closely! 🔎
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MrStellanSight
1
ON Semi is fundamentally undervalued and ready for a reversalTechnical View NASDAQ:ON ON bounce off from a bigger support area from 2022 at around $53 building an ascending triangle. We have a gap above our current price (which can function as a magnet for the stock price). A smaller resistance at $60 might be our first target and the bigger resistance at $77 could be our final target resulting in 36% ROI. The trade would be invalidated below $50. Since this is a bigger swing trade, I would not put my SL to close to the current stock price. If you’re interested why this is a mid- to long-term swing trade read the fundamental information below. Support Zones $50-53 Target Zones $60 $77 Fundamental View ON Semiconductor concluded the third quarter of 2024 with revenue amounting to $1,762 million, reflecting a 2% increase from the second quarter but a -19.2% year-over-year decline. Nevertheless, the revenue for the quarter exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.70%. The most significant revenue losses were observed in the industrial end-market, with figures reaching $439.90 million compared to the average estimate of $464.97 million, marking a -28.6% decrease. The gross margin experienced a 2% improvement, now constituting 45.4% of total revenue. Looking ahead, the acquisition of GlobalFoundries’ New York plant is anticipated to enhance the company's chip production capabilities. This facility is expected to maintain consistent production costs while simultaneously increasing production efficiency, in anticipation of a future rise in demand. The stock has decreased by 11.26% on a year-to-date basis, with a reported trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $4.03. Management has reported having over $1 billion in free cash flow and plans, according to Barron’s, to utilize half of each quarter’s cash flow to repurchase shares under onsemi’s Share Repurchase Program. The reduction in investments will contribute to increasing free cash flow margins, thereby reinforcing OnSemi’s objective of returning 50% of free cash flow to investors. This, combined with a projected slight improvement in sales growth and profitability, is expected to elevate EPS to $7.11 by 2027. Currently, the company's valuation appears reasonable, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.49, which is lower than 90% of the time over the past five years and significantly beneath the S&P 500 P/E ratio as well as the industry median P/E of 25.4. Based on analysts' projections for EPS and maintaining a steady P/E ratio, the company is anticipated to reach a price of $95.91 within the next two years. While this scenario may seem overly optimistic, it is evident that the market is currently undervaluing the stock, especially when compared to its main competitors, such as Texas Instruments and Analog Devices. Since EV is a superior trend I don’t think Trumps political decision will have an impact. In addition, “Vice President” Musk has a, let’s say, not so little interest in selling more EVs.
NASDAQ:ONLong
by LGNDRY-Capital
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 24, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is attracting buyers towards 1.04500 in the early Asian session on Friday, fuelled by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Later on Friday, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for January in the Eurozone and Germany will be released. In the US, the flash S&P PMI for January will take centre stage. U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos led to a decline in the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies. Late on Thursday, Trump said he wants to see interest rates cut immediately and accordingly they should fall across the board. ‘The markets seem to be more concerned about lower rates and any indication that they're going to be cut’, said David Eng, an investment adviser at Sonora Wealth Group in Vancouver. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasised on Wednesday that the central bank is ‘not too concerned’ about the risk of inflation from abroad and will continue to cut interest rates at a gradual pace. Markets have priced in a nearly 96% probability that the ECB will cut rates at its upcoming meeting. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1