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ETHEREUM is stacking up to fly! BINANCE:ETHUSDT ETHEREUM got a lot going for it right now. It's the backbone of a huge chunk of the crypto world, especially with all the DeFi and NFT stuff happening. Plus, there's always talk about big upgrades that could make it even better. Right now, Ethereum's trading around $2,500, but some experts expect that it could climb way higher, maybe even past $8,000, if everything goes right. That aside, I personally think $5,000 is achievable and to happen soon. It clearly broke out of the months long downtrend channel and with momentum. There's a lot of hate for ETH just for being expensive. But, let's be real, is not the 2nd biggest player in the market for nothing. Let me know what you think? Open to counter ideas! BINANCE:ETHUSDT
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Stallone27
DXY Ready to Reload? Eyes on 99.100 as Tariff Tensions Ease!!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we're closely monitoring the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 99.100 zone. After trending lower for a while, the dollar index has successfully broken out of its downtrend and is now entering a corrective phase. We’re watching the 99.100 support/resistance area closely, as it aligns with a key retracement level making it a strong candidate for a bullish reaction. On the fundamental side, Friday's NFP data came in slightly above expectations, which is typically USD-positive. In addition, recent Trump-led de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions is another supportive factor for the dollar. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
10
Mean Reversion + Alternative Long Set-Up MES🔁 MES Mean Reversion Setup – Fade the Gamma Pin • Trend Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish • Entry Zone: $6,012–$6,016 • Stop-Loss: $6,020 • TP1 / TP2: $5,998 / $5,985 • R:R Ratio: ~1:2 • Confidence Score: 7.5/10 • Reasoning: Price is stalling inside top of Fib zone and SpotGamma’s gamma ceiling. Vol is crushed and mean reversion dominates without fresh upside catalyst. Clean rejection of 6,012 area intraday offers high-conviction fade down to VWAP zones and liquidity pools under 6,000. ⚠️ Alternative Long Setup – Only on Break + Hold of 6,020 • Trend Bias: Bullish breakout continuation • Entry Zone: $6,022–$6,025 • Stop-Loss: $6,015 • TP1 / TP2: $6,050 / $6,075 • R:R Ratio: ~1.5:1 • Confidence Score: 6.5/10 • Reasoning: Would signal breach of gamma wall (unusual without major news). Requires follow-through volume and tape support from HIRO or strong opening drive. 🧠 Key Notes Going Into the Week: SPX pinned at 6,000 = no trend yet, just controlled chop. JPM 5,905 call (June 30 expiry) still anchoring downside gamma. If MES > 6,012 holds on volume, prepare for potential chase. Next macro catalyst: Wednesday’s CPI (6/11). Until then, expect low realized vol and grind behavior.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ManosDeOro415
1
FIL 1D – Quant Alert: Trend Exhaustion Nears, Upside Risk BuildsAnalysis: Filecoin consolidates above the $2.50 mark after absorbing aggressive supply-side pressure. Bear Load drops to 50% – signaling a weakening grip from short-side momentum. Technical Structure: • EMA50 ($2.75) and EMA100 ($2.97) remain overhead – yet flattening slope suggests trend inflection. • MACD histogram flips neutral with positive delta widening – early sign of cyclical shift. • Bullish divergence emerging on volume and MACD cross. Quant Perspective: • Volatility compression post-selloff = breakout conditions. • Trend models estimate upside expansion toward $2.85–$3.05 on volume confirmation. • Risk is defined. Reward asymmetric. Positioning Insight: • Smart money begins scaling exposure sub $2.60. • Break and hold above $2.78 likely triggers model reallocation. No hype, just quant edge. #FIL #Filecoin #QuantTA #HedgeFundLens #CryptoTA #DeFi #FILUSD #TrendReversal #VolumeAnalysis
KRAKEN:FILUSDLong
by BroLal
2
Crypto Total Market Cap – Bulls vs. Walls 🧪 1. 🐸 Miracle’s Take – The Meme Prophet Speaks! “Wassup degenz! It’s ya boi Miracle again – and this chart’s juicier than a frog smoothie!” Market just kissed the MA50 like it’s a long-lost love 💋… and BOOM — bounced back hard! We’re climbing outta the bear channel like a true meme-warrior escaping rug hell 🧱 BUT... the resistance zone ahead (3.27T–3.32T) is like a fat whale sitting on top of the market 💀 A breakout above that and we go party at 3.48T, where the liquidity gods live 🎯 If we get slapped down though… Miracle sees a revisit to 3.2T support, where apes gather before launch 🦍 🔋 Momentum is here, but no confirmed breakout YET! 📢 Miracle’s Warning: “A trendline breakout without meme energy is just hopium with candles!” 💡 Miracle Watchlist: ✅ Break + Retest of resistance zone = GO LONG ❌ Rejection = scalp short back to MA 🔍 2. Unknown Analyst View – Clean & Technical MA50 acted as a dynamic support and initiated a bounce. Price is trying to break out of a descending channel, which has acted as a structure since late May. Immediate resistance lies in the 3.27T–3.32T zone, which previously caused multiple rejections. A confirmed breakout with volume and a successful retest of the resistance zone or MA50 could push us toward: 🎯 Target 1: 3.35T 🎯 Target 2: 3.48T (horizontal key resistance) If rejected, we could slide back to the 3.20T support (yellow line) or even back into the bearish channel. The market’s response to this zone will define the short-term trend. "Observe the structure. Let price prove direction." 🎭 Two Faces. One Chart. Who do YOU trust more today? The meme-warrior 🐸 or the mystery tactician 🧠? 💬 Tell us in comments: #TeamMiracle or #TeamUnknown? 🎬 TradeWithMky – where altcoins speak louder than Bitcoin! #CryptoCap #TotalMarketCap #AltseasonComing #TradeWithMky #CryptoAnalysis
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by TradeWithMky
NZDUSD 1. New Zealand 10-Year Bond Yield As of June 6, 2025, the New Zealand 10-year government bond yield is approximately 4.58% to 4.64%, with a recent slight increase to 4.64% on June 6, 2025. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) official cash rate stands at 3.25% as of early June 2025, following cuts from 3.50% in May. Bond yields reflect inflation expectations, economic outlook, and monetary policy stance. 2. United States 10-Year Bond Yield 4.5% 3. Interest Rate Differential The 10-year bond yield differential (NZ minus US) is roughly: 4.6%(NZ)−4.5%(US)≈+0.1% This small positive differential indicates New Zealand bonds yield slightly more than US bonds, offering a modest carry advantage for NZD over USD The current Federal Reserve (Fed) policy interest rate target range is 4.25% to 4.50%, a level that has been maintained since December 18, 2024. The Fed has held rates steady through its meetings so far in 2025, including the most recent one in May. The next Fed interest rate decision is scheduled for June 18, 2025, with the announcement expected at 6:00 PM UTC (2:00 PM ET), followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The policy rate differential favors the US slightly, with the Fed’s rate around 4.25 TO 4.5%% and RBNZ’s at 3.25%–3.50%, reflecting the recent easing by New Zealand. 4. Carry Trade Advantage The carry trade incentive for NZD/USD is modest due to the small yield differential. Investors borrowing in USD to invest in NZD assets gain a slight positive yield spread from the 10-year bond yields but face currency risk and potential volatility. The carry advantage is limited by RBNZ’s recent rate cuts and the Fed’s relatively higher policy rates. Conclusion The NZD/USD 10-year bond yield differential currently offers a small carry advantage to NZD, but this is tempered by the policy rate differential favoring the USD due to recent RBNZ easing. The carry trade appeal for NZD/USD is therefore limited in June 2025, with currency movements likely influenced more by economic data, risk sentiment, and central bank guidance than pure yield spreads. #NZDUSD
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Altseason Index Proxy (TOTAL3 / BTC.D) Weekly TF Symbol & Timeframe: * **Symbol**: CRYPTOCAP\:TOTAL3 / CRYPTOCAP\:BTC.D * **Timeframe**: Weekly (1W), * **Purpose**: A clean, data-driven proxy for detecting altseason momentum Technical Structure: ✅ Key Support Zones * **13.47B (61.8% Fib)**: Critical golden zone; current price consolidation area * **12.45B (50.0% Fib)**: Lower bound of golden zone * **11.00B**: Historical support zone * **8.15B (0.0%)**: Absolute bottom of retracement range 🔹 Hidden Bullish Divergence * **MACD Histogram & Signal Lines** show hidden bullish divergence * Price action forming **higher lows** while MACD makes **lower lows** * Indicates trend continuation potential 🔢 Fibonacci Targets TP1: 16.8B (100.0%) TP2: 22.2B (161.8%) TP3: 30.7B (261.8%) 🔄 Expected Path * Potential short-term correction toward 12.4B followed by a breakout * Bullish continuation path sketched with progressive Fib targets 📈 Macro & Fundamental Confluence 📉 Liquidity and Monetary Easing * Global monetary policy is easing (e.g., Fed pivot expected mid-2025) * Increased liquidity historically precedes strong altcoin rallies BTC Dominance Decline * BTC.D rolling down from long-term highs * Signals beginning of capital rotation into altcoins 🚀 Emerging Narratives * Rise of L2s (e.g., Base, zkSync), AI tokens, real-world asset protocols * Fresh narratives tend to amplify altseason rotations 💼 Institutional Tailwinds * Spot ETH ETF approvals pave way for alt ETF flows * Regulatory clarity expected to reduce uncertainty in late 2025 Related Reference Charts: 🌐 TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH) 📊 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) These charts offer standalone confirmation of: Altcoin strength forming on TOTAL3 BTC dominance facing structural resistance Composite Altseason Thesis: 1. Liquidity injections + halving = BTC rally 2. BTC.D breakdown + TOTAL3 support = altcoin strength 3. Technical confirmations: hidden divergence, fib confluence 4. Narrative and regulatory catalysts = widespread rotation **Conclusion**: We are entering a prime zone for altseason acceleration. Price reclaim above 13.47B and continued BTC.D drop will validate bullish thesis. Monitor closely for breakouts past TP1 and momentum into TP2/TP3. 📌 Current status: - Price rebounding in the 12.45–13.47B Fibonacci zone (50–61.8%) - Hidden bullish divergence on MACD + ascending price structure - BTC.D has rolled off 65% resistance — suggesting capital rotation 📊 Altseason Thesis: 1. Post-halving BTC rally → profit dispersion into altcoins 2. Macro conditions (Fed pivot, record liquidity) enabling risk-on environment 3. Technical confirmation via index momentum and fib structure 4. Narrative tailwinds: Layer-2 adoption, AI-crypto, altcoin ETF catalysts 📈 Targets: - TP1 @ 16.8B (100% Fib) - TP2 @ 22.2B (161.8% Fib) - TP3 @ 30.7B (261.8% Fib) 🟢 Key support: 12.45–13.47B zone; breakout + BTC.D collapse = altseason trigger.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by BitonGroup
Psst… Wanna Rob the Silver Market? XAG/USD Trade Inside!"🔥 "SILVER HEIST ALERT! 🚨 XAG/USD Bullish Raid Plan (Thief Trading Style)" 🔥 🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟 Attention Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🤑💰💸✈️ Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re plotting a heist on XAG/USD "The Silver" Market. Follow the strategy on the chart—LONG ENTRY is key! Aim to escape near the high-risk Red Zone (overbought, consolidation, bear traps). 🏆 Take profits & treat yourself—you’ve earned it! 💪🎉 📈 ENTRY: "The Heist Begins!" Wait for MA breakout (33.700)—then strike! Bullish profits await. Options: Buy Stop above Moving Average OR Buy Limit near pullback zones (15-30min timeframe, swing lows/highs). 📌 Pro Tip: Set an ALERT for breakout confirmation! 🛑 STOP LOSS: "Listen Up, Thieves!" For Buy Stop Orders: DO NOT set SL until after breakout! Place SL at recent/swing low (4H timeframe)—adjust based on your risk, lot size, & order count. Rebels, be warned: Set it wherever, but you’re playing with fire! 🔥⚡ 🏴‍☠️ TARGET: 34.700 Scalpers: Only trade LONG. Use trailing SL to protect gains. Swing Traders: Join the robbery squad & ride the trend! 📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP: Bullish drivers in play! Check: Macro trends, COT reports, sentiment, intermarket analysis. 🔗 Linkks in bio/chart for deep dive. ⚠️ TRADING ALERTS: News = Volatility! Avoid new trades during releases. Lock profits with trailing stops. Stay sharp! 💥 BOOST THE HEIST! Hit 👍 "LIKE" & "BOOST" to fuel our robbery team! More heists coming—stay tuned! 🚀🤩 🎯 Let’s steal the market’s money—Thief Trading Style! 🏆💵
FXOPEN:XAGUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
GBPJPYGBP/JPY Current 10-Year Bond Yield and Interest Rate Differential (June 2025) 1. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield As of early June 2025, the Japan 10-year government bond yield is approximately 1.50% to 1.52%. The yield rose by about 18 basis points in May 2025, closing near 1.50%, influenced by global yield increases, Moody’s US credit downgrade, and reduced BoJ purchases of super-long bonds. The Bank of Japan maintains a very accommodative monetary policy with a policy rate around 0.50%, and the yield curve control program continues to cap longer-term yields, though with some recent volatility. 2. UK 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Gilt) While the exact current UK 10-year gilt yield is not explicitly in the search results, typical recent yields for UK 10-year bonds have been around 3.5% to 4.0% in mid-2025, reflecting tighter monetary policy by the Bank of England amid inflation concerns. The Bank of England’s policy rate is higher than Japan’s, around 4.5% to 5.0%, consistent with the higher gilt yields. 3. Interest Rate Differential Using approximate yields: UK 10-year gilt yield: ~3.75% (midpoint estimate) Japan 10-year JGB yield: ~1.50% The 10-year bond yield differential (UK minus Japan) is roughly: 3.75%−1.50%=2.25% This positive differential indicates UK bonds offer significantly higher yields than Japanese bonds, reflecting the divergent monetary policies and economic conditions. Summary Table Metric United Kingdom (GBP) Japan (JPY) Differential (GBP - JPY) 10-Year Government Bond Yield ~3.5% - 4.0% ~1.50% ~2.25% Policy Interest Rate ~4.5% - 5.0% ~0.50% ~4.0% Implications for GBP/JPY The higher UK bond yields relative to Japan suggest a carry advantage for GBP over JPY, encouraging investors to hold GBP assets funded by low-yielding JPY. According to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), this yield gap implies the GBP should depreciate against JPY by about 2.25% annually to offset the higher returns, but in practice, GBP/JPY movements also depend on risk sentiment, growth outlook, and central bank policies. The yen’s safe-haven status and BoJ’s yield curve control can dampen yield-driven moves, while the UK’s inflation and policy tightening support higher yields and GBP strength. #GBPJPY
Long
by Shavyfxhub
BITCOINBITCOIN ,the quick buy back at 100k level on demand floor faces a strong supply roof at 106k-105.98k level. the rejection at 106k -105.98k level is backed by broken demand floor to act a supply roof .if buyers don't break this roof they could retest 100k again and break below will trigger 97k daily support zone . on a flip side,a break and close followed by successful retest will be eyeing 113k-115k ascending supply roof based on the ascending trendline structure on daily.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
ETH.D (Ethereum Dominance) Weekly TF 2025 Summary: Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) has likely bottomed after retracing to its 78.6% Fibonacci level (~6.59%) and is showing early signs of a structural reversal. With institutional inflows, growing staking adoption, and key upcoming Ethereum upgrades, ETH.D may reclaim significant market dominance over the next 12–18 months. Our chart anticipates a bounce-pullback-rebound structure, aiming for 3 target zones: TP1 (23.5%), TP2 (30.8%), and TP3 (39%). Contextual Market Alignment: This ETH.D bullish bias aligns strongly with our broader market outlook: TOTAL Market Cap Analysis → Bullish breakout structure, indicating overall crypto expansion. TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap Ex-BTC) → Bullish retracement completion and extension targets active. BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) → Bearish confluence zone, suggesting Bitcoin may underperform versus ETH and altcoins, freeing up dominance space for ETH.D to rise. Chart Context: This weekly ETH.D chart uses a Fibonacci retracement from the top (~30.81%) to bottom (0%) to identify potential reversal zones. The dominance hit a key support area at the 78.6% Fib retracement (6.59%), showing a reaction that may develop into a reversal. The roadmap includes: Rebound toward TP1 (23.54% = 23.5%) Minor correction or consolidation Breakout continuation toward TP2 (0.0% = 30.8%) Extension leg targeting TP3 (–27% = 39%) Key Technical Observations: Support Levels: 78.60% = 6.59% (bottom support) 88.60%=3.5% Possible Resistances: 61.80% = 11.77% 48.60% = 15.84% 38.20% = 19.04% Resistance & TPs: TP1: 23.54% (23.6% Fib) TP2: 30.81% (Full retrace = 0%) TP3: 39.13% (–27% extension) Current level: ~9.36% Clear bullish structure with a “bounce–pullback–rebound” sequence Indicators: Fibonacci retracements from ~30.81% to 0% Structural pattern: rounded bottom / double bottom Hidden bullish divergence forming on weekly timeframe Fundamental Context: Institutional Inflows & ETF Dynamics: Since July 2024’s launch of spot Ether ETFs, inflows have been strong with a 15‎-day streak totaling approximately $837 million (~25% of total net inflows). Recently, the SEC approved options trading on spot ETH ETFs (e.g., BlackRock, Grayscale), deepening liquidity and offering hedging mechanisms. BlackRock is now pushing to add staking functionality allowing yield generation within an ETF wrapper. If approved, this could markedly increase demand. Staking Growth & On‍-Chain Supply Dynamics: 27% of ETH is already staked, and ETF inflows could lift that by >10%. A staking ETF would institutionalize ETH staking: more capital locked, less circulating supply → supply constraints could support dominance and valuation. Ethereum Backbone in DeFi & RWA: Ethereum still leads the Real‍-World Asset (RWA) space: over 50% market share and ~$5–6 billion in assets tokenized on-chain. Its core infrastructure underlies the majority of DeFi, smart contracts, and stablecoins, reinforcing ETH.D’s structural resilience. Network Upgrades & Tech Progress: The Pectra upgrade (mid‎-2025) is on the horizon, introducing EIP‎-7251/7702, improving validator flexibility and network usability. Combined with recent Dencun improvements, Ethereum is becoming cheaper and more efficient, boosting adoption in L2 ecosystems. Price action & on-chain indicators: ETH price has surged ~46% in the past 30 days, driven by ETF demand; some analyst forecasts target $3,000–5,000 year-end. The withdrawal of ~$1.2 billion ETH from exchanges suggests increasing long-term holdings and less selling pressure. Integrating with Your Technical Setup: Level: 78.6%–61.8% bounce zones (6–11%) Fundamental Support: Institutional re-entry via ETFs often begins with accumulation near support. Level: TP1 at 23.6% (23.5%) Fundamental Support: Could coincide with ETF inflows + early vesting of staking narratives. Level: TP2 (~30.8%) Fundamental Support: Full retrace driven by mass ETF adoption, options trading, and upgrade momentum. Level: TP3 >39% (–27% ext.) Fundamental Support: If staking ETF and yield-bearing structures go live, ETH.D could reach new dominance highs. Summary of Fundamental Catalysts: Spot ETH ETF inflows (~$800 M), with options exposure adding liquidity. Upcoming staking ETF (BlackRock, Grayscale) with >10% locked-up supply implications. Ethereum remains the DeFi and RWA backbone, sustaining structural demand. Protocol upgrades (Pectra, Dencun) enhance scalability and adoption. On‍-chain withdrawal trends show growing holder conviction. Narrative / Bias & Strategy Implication: ETH.D has likely completed its correction and is primed for a staged bullish reversal, mirroring prior cycles. The chart forecasts a rally toward TP1, where some short-term profit-taking and rotation to alts may occur (Alts season). Following that, a retrace may set up the next impulsive move to reclaim lost dominance and eventually challenge prior highs. Time Horizon: Mid-2025 to late 2026
CRYPTOCAP:ETH.DLong
by BitonGroup
Stop Hunting for Perfection - Start Managing Risk.Stop Hunting for Perfection — Start Managing Risk. Hard truth: Your obsession with perfect setups costs you money. Markets don't reward perfectionists; they reward effective risk managers. Here's why your perfect entry is killing your results: You ignore good trades waiting for ideal setups — they rarely come. You double-down on losing trades, convinced your entry was flawless. You're blindsided by normal market moves because you didn’t plan for imperfection. 🎯 Solution? Shift your focus from entry perfection to risk management. Define your maximum acceptable loss, stick to it, and scale into trades strategically. TrendGo wasn't built to promise perfect entries. It was built to clarify probabilities and structure risk. 🔍 Stop chasing unicorns. Focus on managing the horses you actually ride.
NYSE:CCJEducation
by TrendGo_Official
WTICOUSD - BULLISH Typical Wycoff Break Re-Test Slight Tap of FV Gap Bullish Engulfing Candle Usually signifies "In a Hurry". Best Analysis i think was Perplexity Ai Bullish Case for Oil US Jobs Data: Stronger-than-expected US jobs numbers have pushed prices higher, with algos covering short bets Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions in Ukraine and Iran, plus Canadian wildfires, are supporting prices due to potential supply disruptions OPEC+ Supply Increase Smaller Than Feared: OPEC+ is raising output, but by less than the market expected, which has helped limit downside pressure and even sparked price gains Recent Price Action: Oil has rebounded to around $64–$65 (Brent) after several weeks of losses, suggesting some stabilization and potential for a technical bounce Deep Ai Probability of bullish continuation: 75/100 Technical s indicate a relatively high likelihood that the current bullish trend will continue toward the identified resistance zone above, provided no major fundamental shifts occur. However, caution remains due to potential pullbacks or consolidation near resistance levels. This is the safest place to enter usually Cost average in not stops they suck ! imho Lets See : ) .
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by NZ_Shareman
The SECRET is Compounding Tiny Objectives & Finding SatisfactionIn this video I talk about what I don't really find people talking about, which is how important it is to find satisfaction in your trading. When I say 'satisfaction', I am talking about the monetary kind. What do I mean by this? A problem I used to have in my earlier days was over-trading, revenge trading, blowing accounts, the usual story. I even had a decently high win-rate and I was good at understanding price. What I discovered was that I was not finding satisfaction because I was not risking enough on my trades. You see.. my strategy had a high win-rate with a positive R average, but the setups did not appear that often. Not as rare as a unicorn, but still, I'd have to sit around and wait and wait and wait. By the time my setup came, I put on a small risk, and I won small. Subconsciously, I found that quite frustrating, even though I was actually winning most of my trades. You can imagine how I felt when I lost a trade. I felt like I invested all that time for nothing. One could argue that I was being careful, but the problem was I was being too careful. I age the same as everyone else, and everyone else ages the same as me. I am investing my time into this strategy, time I will never get back. If I am not utilizing my time in relation to the earning potential, then that is a bad investment. Being a psychologically prone person, I made it a serious rule that all my criteria for my setup must be hit before I take that trade, no exceptions. I kept myself on the higher timeframes so that my mental state can safely process what I needed to process, whether it was analytical or just psychological. Another point was getting over what others were showcasing or doing. Material luxuries and large wins are all subjective things. It was frustrating seeing people trade every single day, most of them with green days. I felt like I had to do the same too to be a good trader. I was WRONG. What I actually need to do was make my system work for me, and that included how I implemented risk and what was satisfying enough for me to pursue. Like I said in the video, if what you want to do is not interesting or attractive to you, you won't want to do it. As long as what you want to do makes sense and isn't you trying to go from zero to a hundred in 2.5 seconds. As the title says, compound tiny objectives but make it satisfying in terms of risk and your time invested. - R2F Trading
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Road_2_Funded
NQ100 → Entering the Danger Zone?📈 1. Technical Context (Price Action & Structure) The daily chart shows a strong bullish continuation from the 17,350 area, with price now extending toward the 22,000 USD zone. We are currently within a weekly/monthly supply, with: Mild RSI divergence in overbought conditions Temporary rejection at 22,050–22,200 A potential liquidity sweep above highs before distribution or pullback The monthly structure shows a strong swing low that may serve as anchor for a future reversal 🧠 2. COT Report – Commitment of Traders (as of June 3) Commercials (Smart Money): +4,041 long | +3,320 short → Net +1,455 → hedging phase, not trend expansion Non-Commercials (Speculators): –2,237 long | +125 short → net exposure reduction Open Interest increasing → new positions building, but no extreme imbalance 📌 Conclusion: Tactical neutrality, slight bullish lean from commercials. 📆 3. Seasonality June has been historically bullish, especially in the past 2 years (+700 pts avg) 10Y average still leans bullish ⚠️ September is a clear seasonal reversal month across all timeframes 📌 Conclusion: Seasonal tailwind through end of June; cyclic reversal risk into Q3. 📰 4. Macro Calendar High-impact USD week: CPI – Wed, June 11 PPI – Thu, June 12 These will be critical to: Validate the disinflation narrative Set expectations for a Fed cut by Sep/Nov 📌 Conclusion: Expect explosive mid-week volatility — watch for liquidity spikes above 22,000 if CPI surprises. ⚙️ Operational Outlook ✅ Primary scenario (bullish continuation): 🎯 Target: 22,260 → fib extension + structure ❌ Invalid below 21,350 🔄 Alternative scenario (mean reversion): 🔻 Short from 22,050–22,200 🎯 Target: 20,950 → liquidity + FVG zone 🔁 Trigger: weekly engulf or hotter-than-expected CPI
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3