Fundamental Analysis
IBM Share Price Falls Following Earnings ReportIBM Share Price Falls Following Earnings Report
Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session, International Business Machines (IBM) released its Q1 earnings report, exceeding Wall Street analysts’ expectations in several key areas. According to FactSet:
→ Earnings per share came in at $1.60 (forecast = $1.42), although this was below last year’s figure of $1.68.
→ Quarterly revenue reached $14.54 billion (forecast = $14.39 billion), marking a 1% increase year-on-year.
Initially, IBM shares rose on the news, but then dropped by approximately 6% during after-hours trading, according to Google Finance.
This suggests that today’s trading session may see IBM shares open below the $230 mark.
Market participants may have been disappointed by the following:
→ IBM’s mainframe business (large-scale computing systems designed for high-volume data processing) continued its decline, falling by 6% year-on-year.
→ Revenue from software and consulting divisions increased, but only by 3% compared to the same period last year.
→ The revenue forecast for Q2 stands at $6.6 billion – a 3% decline relative to the same quarter in 2024.
Technical Analysis of IBM Share Price
The chart shows signs of seller activity above the psychological level of $250. As indicated by the arrows, the price attempted several rallies above this level with varying momentum, but each time retreated back.
At the same time, price fluctuations formed a downward channel, which was extended to the downside in early April amid news regarding new tariffs in international trade.
Price stabilisation observed between 15–17 April suggests that supply and demand were temporarily balanced ahead of the earnings release. However, the negative market reaction to the report may shift sentiment and act as a catalyst for further price movement towards the lower boundary of the channel, around the key support level of $215.
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Can XRP crack resistance and rally straight to $2.50?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌
All previous targets were nailed ✅! Now, let’s dive into a full analysis of the upcoming price potential for Ripple 🔍📈.
Ripple appears poised for a potential breakout above its current descending channel in the coming days.
A projected upside of at least 16% is anticipated, with the primary target set at $2.50.
This level aligns closely with a key resistance zone, marking a critical point for bullish momentum.📚🙌
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
Ripple may soon break out of its downtrend, targeting a 16% rise toward the key $2.50 resistance level.📚🎇
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest hours crafting valuable ideas, and your support means everything—feel free to ask questions in the comments! 😊💬
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Google - Last earnings call before tariffs affect revenue?Hi guys please find below the analysis we did for Google (ALPHABET)
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is poised to deliver a robust Q1 2025 earnings report, with analysts projecting revenue of $89.22 billion—an 11% year-over-year increase—and net income of $24.71 billion ($2.01 per share), up from $23.66 billion ($1.89 per share) a year ago . This anticipated growth is largely driven by Alphabet's strategic investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, which have bolstered its core businesses, including Google Search and YouTube .
Resilience Amid Tariff Concerns
While recent U.S. tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, particularly affecting hardware-dependent sectors, Alphabet's business model is predominantly digital and service-oriented. Its primary revenue streams—digital advertising, cloud services, and AI-driven platforms—are less susceptible to such trade tensions. Analysts from Citi and Morgan Stanley have expressed confidence in Alphabet's ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges, citing the company's AI-driven innovations as key growth drivers.
General analyst Confidence and Stock Performance
Despite a 20% decline in Alphabet's stock value earlier in 2025, the company's strong fundamentals have led to bullish sentiments among analysts. Price targets have been set as high as $195, suggesting a potential upside of up to 29% from recent levels . The company's continued focus on AI and cloud services positions it well for sustained growth, even amidst global economic uncertainties. In summary, Alphabet's upcoming earnings call is expected to highlight the company's robust performance and resilience, underscoring its ability to thrive despite external economic pressures.
📌 Trade Plan
📈 Entry: 155.41
✅ Target: 181.30
❌ SL: 121
We are looking for +-20% increase in the upcoming days/weeks!
XAUUSD - Will Gold Reverse?!Gold is trading between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 15-minute timeframe and is on its uptrend line. A continued bullish move towards the supply zone will provide us with the next opportunity to sell it with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a range of $10-$15.
Gold prices dropped by 4% on Wednesday, just a day after reaching an all-time high. The decline followed remarks by President Trump that helped ease Wall Street’s concerns about the ongoing trade war with China and tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
Throughout this year, gold has seen a substantial rise due to investor fears over the economic consequences of tariffs. Additionally, the metal has benefited from capital fleeing U.S. assets amid political uncertainty under the Trump administration. On Tuesday, Trump reassured markets by stating that he had no intention of removing Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and expressed his expectation that tariffs on Chinese goods would soon be lowered.
Trump’s statements supporting Federal Reserve independence and hinting at easing trade tensions with China reignited risk appetite in financial markets, causing gold prices to tumble on Wednesday.Just a day earlier, prices had hit a record high above $3,500, as investors speculated that Trump might attempt to remove Powell. Trump had previously criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates and for warning that tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices.
Gold’s price surge this year has been especially notable following Trump’s decision to halt the implementation of sweeping new tariffs initially announced in early April. Gold, as a safe-haven asset not tied to any single national economy—unlike traditional alternatives such as the U.S. dollar or Treasuries, which are subject to U.S. government influence—has become increasingly attractive to investors wary of Trump’s policy decisions.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that continued tariff escalation in 2025 could push global public debt to 95.1% of GDP—an increase of 2.8 percentage points from previous forecasts. According to the IMF’s latest “Fiscal Monitor” report, if revenues and output fall significantly below expectations due to tariff-induced pressures, global debt could surpass 117% of GDP by 2027.
Investment bank JPMorgan has projected that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. This forecast is based on expectations of an economic recession, a prolonged trade war, and sustained demand from central banks. However, JPMorgan also cautioned that a sudden drop in central bank demand could threaten this bullish trend.
The IMF’s report further estimates that global public debt will climb to 99.6% of GDP by 2030, exceeding even the pandemic-era peak.
The IMF has forecasted global economic growth at around 2.8% for 2025. In this scenario, the U.S. budget deficit is projected to decrease from 7.3% of GDP in 2024 to 6.5% in 2025, and further down to 5.5% in 2026, largely due to increased tariff revenues and continued economic expansion.
These IMF projections for the U.S. deficit are based on policies announced up until April 2, 2025, and assume that the individual tax cuts enacted in 2017 will expire at the end of this year.
Daily BTC OverviewThe daily chart in its simplest form can be broken down into this range. Since President Trumps inauguration, BTC has declined from a range high of $108,000 back to the lows of $74,500 closing the FVG caused by the US election rally. After a double bottom Bitcoin mean reverted back to the range midpoint which to me is the most important area on the entire chart because it decides if the bull run can continue or if it dies.
I like to keep a close eye on the 200 EMA on multiple timeframes but the 1D is important to gauge the momentum of the move. As the US election results came in a massive push away from this moving average causes the level to steepen in its climb showing strength. Since BTC spent quite some time in the top half of the range the 1D 200 EMA flattens out signaling a loss of momentum, once this level does become flat it no longer provides support. For a bullish cycle to be just that ideally the corrective moves do not spend too much time below this level before expanding above and beyond it once again starting the next leg of the move. A persistent move down below causes a rollover and the cycle looks to be over with a bear market beginning.
Bullish scenario - The correction is over and BTC consistently posts HH's & HLs bringing the 1D 200 EMA up with price and continues the previous bullish trend. I would want to see the retest of the midpoint be successful and then move to reclaim the next local high before targeting range high. The bull market correction looks to be over and bullish continuation resumes.
Bearish scenario - This move is nothing more than a LH, BTC wicks the supply above midpoint, swing fails back under and continues to make LH's & LL's back down to range low where the 1D 200EMA will have now rolled over providing more of a resistance level. The bear market looks to have begun.
I am not here to make a call on where BTC is going next as I do not have that answer, but I do have to plan for each eventuality and that is what I have done here from a TA pint of view. Now it is entirely possible that Geo-political news or an exchange hack etc throws TA out of the window and I have to rethink the plan but in a strictly chart structure perspective this is how I see it.
The indicator "TRADING ENVIRONMENT+V1.0" used in the Idea post is now publicly available for use, give it a try and leave your thoughts and suggestions on the post, thank you.
The Day AheadThursday, April 24 – Market Focus
US Economic Data:
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)
Durable Goods Orders
Existing Home Sales
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing (April)
Initial Jobless Claims
International Data:
Japan PPI Services (March)
Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)
France Consumer Confidence (April)
EU New Car Registrations (March)
Central Bank Speakers:
Fed: Kashkari
ECB: Nagel, Simkus, Rehn, Lane
BoE: Lombardelli
Earnings Highlights:
Alphabet, P&G, T-Mobile, Merck, PepsiCo, Gilead, Union Pacific, Comcast
Sanofi, BNP Paribas, SK Hynix, Intel, Dassault Systèmes
Bristol-Myers, Fiserv, Digital Realty, Freeport-McMoRan, Keurig Dr Pepper
Eni, Nasdaq, L3Harris, Vale, PG&E, Orange, Valero, Nokia, Dow
US Treasury Auction:
7-Year Note
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
NZD/USD Climbs on US-China Optimism and RBNZ Rate Cut ExpectatioNZD/USD Climbs on US-China Optimism and RBNZ Rate Cut Expectations
The NZD/USD currency pair edged higher during European trading hours on Thursday, recovering from two consecutive sessions of losses. Trading near 0.5982, the pair benefited from renewed optimism surrounding potential US-China trade negotiations, a key factor given New Zealand's strong economic ties with China.
This resurgence in the Kiwi dollar (NZD) contrasts with the broader trend of recent days. The previous decline was likely fueled by concerns over global economic growth and the impending interest rate decisions from central banks across the globe. The pair's upward movement now suggests a shift in sentiment, with investors recognizing the potential positive impact of a potential trade thaw.
Crucially, expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) upcoming May meeting are also playing a significant role. Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis-point cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from its current 3.5%. Furthermore, there's a growing expectation of further easing to 2.75% by the year-end. This anticipated easing of monetary policy in New Zealand is providing substantial support to the NZD, adding another bullish element to the current trading environment.
From a technical perspective, the price action around the crucial 0.5980 level highlights the interplay of fundamental and technical factors. While the price has reached a weekly supply zone, the confluence of optimistic trade sentiment and the expected OCR cut is currently outpacing any bearish technical indicators.
However, a sustained move above the significant resistance of the 0.6000 level is critical to confirming the renewed bullish momentum. A break above this psychological barrier would signal further strength in the Kiwi dollar, whereas a reversal below 0.5980 would bring the previously discussed bearish factors back into the forefront.
Looking ahead, the key to future direction for the NZD/USD will likely depend on the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations and any potential further developments regarding the RBNZ's interest rate decisions. Markets will be watching closely for any tangible progress in either area, as this will likely dictate the pair's trajectory.
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GBP/USD Pressure Mounts on Weak UK DataThe GBP/USD currency pair faced downward pressure on Wednesday, largely due to disappointing data from the UK’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This index showed a contraction in private sector business activity for April, signaling potential challenges in the UK economy. As a result, the Pound Sterling weakened against its major counterparts during European trading hours, reflecting growing concerns among investors about the economic outlook.
As the day progressed, the focus shifted to the US Dollar (USD), which was buoyed by increasing optimism regarding easing tensions between the United States and China. Investors reacted positively to news surrounding potential diplomatic efforts and economic collaborations, leading to a stronger USD and further pulling the GBP/USD pair lower. This shift in sentiment highlights how geopolitical developments can significantly impact currency markets.
Interestingly, the price action in the GBP/USD pair reached a notable Weekly Supply zone. This area has historically acted as a resistance level, and despite the current bearish trend, many retailers remain bullish on the Pound. This divergence in sentiment suggests that traders are closely monitoring the situation for signs of a reversal. Given the current conditions, there is speculation that the pair could experience a turnaround as it interacts with this important price level.
Overall, the dynamics between the GBP and USD underscore the ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange market, driven by economic data and geopolitical events. Moving forward, market participants will likely keep a close eye on upcoming indicators and developments that could influence the trajectory of this currency pair, particularly in light of the recent fluctuations and the current positioning within the Weekly Supply zone.
Weekly chart 6B1!
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GOLD recovers, market sentiment correction may stopAfter US President Trump hinted that tariffs on China could be reduced and that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the market's risk-off sentiment cooled and international gold prices fell on Wednesday (April 23) before recovering slightly in early trading today, Thursday (April 24).
Last night, Trump made some important comments, not only clearly showing a softer stance on China but also making it clear that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (in fact, he has no authority to do so).
The current bullish cycle in OANDA:XAUUSD is largely driven by the market pricing in the risk of “stagflation”, but as this risk is gradually eliminated, gold could see a significant correction.
Looking at the big picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing policy. But in the short term, if positive tariff news continues to emerge, gold could fall further and the market will adjust to the new environment.
Earlier, after days of harsh criticism of the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates, Trump withdrew his threat to fire Chairman Powell. At the same time, he also expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China to significantly reduce import tariffs from China, but also warned that "if they don't make a deal, we'll make a deal."
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its forecast for global and US economic growth this year, citing Trump's tariff policies as the main reason for the downgrade.
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has set new historical highs several times since the beginning of 2025, with a cumulative increase of more than 26%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After 2 days of significant correction, gold recovered in today's Asian trading session (24/4) with the recovery level taking the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point as the nearest support. As noted to readers throughout the publications, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the main support from the EMA21, as long as the price decline does not break below the above supports, it should only be considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity.
As of now, gold is trading around $3,333/oz, up 1.38% on the day and around $45 and the upside momentum is expected to test the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level followed by $3,430.
For the day, the main technical outlook for gold is bullish recovery, and the notable positions are listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,245
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,430
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3387
→Take Profit 1 3375
↨
→Take Profit 2 3369
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3206 - 3208⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3202
→Take Profit 1 3214
↨
→Take Profit 2 3220
Gold – Watching Key Resistance for Intraday Sell Plays📌 Gold Surges $80 off Support – Watching Key Resistance for Intraday Sell Plays 📉📈
Gold (XAU/USD) bounced sharply today — surging over 80 points from the support zone near $3,260, swept during the late U.S. session. This strong rebound came as buyers stepped in aggressively after a 250+ point crash earlier in the week.
Now, the market is pulling back from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, showing early signs of sell-side reaction. If this momentum continues, Asian and London sessions could push price lower to fill liquidity in the untested FVG region near 3,288.
🔁 Intraday Structure & Key Zones
After sweeping both sides of the range (80 up / 40 down), gold is now consolidating between 3,328 – 3,320. With intraday volatility ranging from 80–100 points, today’s focus will be on high-probability reaction zones.
🔴 SELL Bias for Today
Primary Resistance: 3,376 – 3,378
→ This zone is expected to act as the first defense for sellers.
If broken, watch the final resistance at 3,410 — a key structural level.
→ A clean breakout above 3,410 may invalidate the sell setup and shift the bias back to BUY.
🔍 News to Watch
⚠️ Unemployment Claims (U.S.) will be released during the New York session.
→ Given current market sensitivity, expect volatility to spike around this release.
🧭 Today’s Trading Zones
🟢 BUY ZONE
Entry: 3,230 – 3,228
SL: 3,224
TP Targets: 3,234 → 3,238 → 3,242 → 3,246 → 3,250 → 3,254 → 3,260
🔻 SELL ZONE #1
Entry: 3,376 – 3,378
SL: 3,382
TP Targets: 3,372 → 3,368 → 3,364 → 3,360 → 3,355 → 3,350
🔻 SELL ZONE #2
Entry: 3,408 – 3,410
SL: 3,414
TP Targets: 3,402 → 3,398 → 3,394 → 3,390 → 3,386 → 3,382 → 3,375 → 3,370
🛡️ Risk Management Note
The market remains extremely volatile and headline-driven. Stick to your trading plan and always respect TP/SL levels to protect your capital — especially during high-impact news releases.
💬 Are you planning to sell into resistance or wait for a deeper pullback to buy? Share your setups and ideas below! 👇👇👇
APTUSDT → Retest of the liquidity zone. Downward trendBINANCE:APTUSDT.P failed to realize its potential. The price made a false breakout of resistance and formed a reversal pattern. Correction or continuation of the downtrend?
Bitcoin is rebounding from resistance. Technically, the market may enter a correction or consolidation. Altcoins are reacting accordingly — correction
Within the downtrend but local ALT rally, APT failed to realize its potential and formed liquidity accumulation and a false breakout of the downtrend channel resistance before a possible decline...
Resistance levels: 5.2, 5.458
Support levels: 4.76, 4.48, 4.17
A consolidation of the price below the trend resistance or below 5.20 could trigger a continuation of the global and local trends. The coin is likely to remain near the bottom and test new lows...
Best regards, R. Linda!
GBPUSD - Will the dollar go up?!The GBPUSD pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. If the pair corrects down towards the demand zone, it can be bought in the direction of its rise.
According to the latest Reuters survey of economists, U.S.-imposed trade tariffs have had a significant negative impact on the business environment in the United Kingdom. The assessment suggests that global trade tensions, combined with America’s protectionist policies, have undermined the confidence of British companies and investors in the country’s economic outlook. Market pricing reflects expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 0.84% over the course of this year.
The survey indicates that the UK’s GDP growth for 2025 is expected to average 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1%. Growth for 2026 is now projected at 1.2%, also lower than the 1.4% forecast made in March.
In terms of monetary policy, there is a strong consensus among economists that the Bank of England is on a gradual path toward easing interest rates. Projections suggest that the base rate will decline by 25 basis points each quarter throughout 2025, reaching 3.75% by year-end. Notably, all 67 economists participating in the poll expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 25 basis points at its May 8 meeting, bringing the rate down to 4.25%.
Meanwhile, the U.S.Federal Reserve, in its latest Beige Book release, reported that economic activity across the country has shown “little change.” The report detailed that only five districts experienced “modest growth,” three noted activity was “about flat,” and four reported “slight to moderate declines.” The Fed stated, “The outlook in several districts deteriorated notably due to heightened economic uncertainty, particularly stemming from tariffs.”
On employment, most districts experienced “little to slight” increases. One district noted a “modest increase,” four reported “slight gains,” another four observed no change, and three recorded “slight declines” in employment levels.
At the same time, prices continued to rise across the country. Six districts described price growth as “modest,” while the other six reported it as “moderate.” The Fed explained that most districts expected input costs to rise further due to tariffs.
UBS has issued a warning that Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts may erode confidence in the Federal Reserve’s independence and fuel greater uncertainty in financial markets.
UBS analysts believe that reduced investment and consumption in the U.S. economy are primarily driven by increased economic uncertainty, rather than restrictive monetary policy. They emphasize that markets are highly sensitive to any perceived threats against the Fed’s autonomy, and in the current climate, it is this economic volatility—more than interest rate levels—that is harming the economy.