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Fundamental Analysis

ETH: Spot Accumulation & Perpetuals StrategyBecause everyone is talking about SOL at $500 and dissing ETH, for the past weeks, I’ve been steadily accumulating spot positions below the $3,200 level, confident that ETH will soon break out of its lackluster performance this bull run and deliver the explosive move it owes us. Buying into the bearish CT sentiment regarding ETH has been a good strategy so far. Yes, ETH price action has been a joke, but I believe ETH and a few ETH based altcoins have the potential to skyrocket once momentum aligns. Key Observations: 200 EMA on 12H Timeframe: This has been a pivotal support level for sustained rallies. If it continues to hold, I expect ETH to build strength and retest the highs near $4,080 in the near term, then break them. Losing it will not damage the structure, but it might lead to a retest of the purple box. Diagonal Resistance: A confirmed breakout above the diagonal resistance could confirm a shift in momentum, likely fueling a rapid move toward the highs. Until then, this trendline remains a obstacle: if price fails to break above it, we might see a pullback. A failure could lead ETH to revisit the $3,000 (hopefully $2,800) range, which I’ve highlighted as an optimal zone for longs. Spot vs Long Positioning: While I’ve yet to take any leveraged longs, dca for my spot bags remain a primary focus. I missed a long entry by a mere 1.5% but isn’t a concern, discipline pays off in the long term. If price reaches my desired entry levels, I’ll execute. If not, I’ll happily ride my spot bags to potential new highs. Strategy: Breakout Play: A clean break of the diagonal resistance with volume could signal a long opportunity, targeting $4,000+. Retest Play: If price revisits the $2,800–$3,000 level, I’ll look to build additional leveraged exposure, expecting a strong bounce from that demand zone. Patience and risk management remain key—whether the next move is up or down, I’m well-positioned for the outcome. Hope to see ETH finally performing and hoping you are positioned for this scenario too. If not, there might be an opportunity left to grab! 🍾
by CanIGetARoar
Market Outlook for EUR/USD, GBPUSD and DXY!Market Outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and DXY Preparing for Significant Movement Ahead of Trump's Inauguration Today, I have prepared a market outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the Dollar Index ahead of Trump's Inauguration. Donald Trump is set to take office on Monday, January 20th, while U.S. markets will be closed for a holiday. The president-elect could issue up to 100 executive orders in the early days of his second presidency. With promises of implementing drastic policies from day one, irregular volatility risks are a key concern. You may watch the analysis for further details! Thank you:)
by KlejdiCuni
1
XRP Remains Fragile Below ResistanceXRP Remains Fragile Below Resistance In a recent analysis, we noted that XRP has reached its first target and is currently testing the reversal zone. While this bearish scenario might not be appealing and good for you, it's crucial to acknowledge that it remains a possibility as long as the price stays below resistance. If uncertainty continues to surround the crypto market, XRP could easily reach its first and second targets. It's also worth noting that President Trump postponed the tariff increase, and a similar approach could be taken with cryptocurrencies. If that happens the crypto market may crash easily. You can find more details in the chart. Thank you!
Short
by KlejdiCuni
4
BoJ hikes rates, yen pares gainsThe Japanese yen gained as much as 0.8% earlier today but has failed to consolidate these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.03, dwon 0.02% on the day. The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points earlier today, as expected. This brings the policy rate to 0.5%, its highest level since October 2008, during the global financial crisis. The Japanese yen climbed sharply after the decision but was unable to consolidate these gains. The BoJ has been signaling that it planned to raise rates at today's meeting, although the BoJ tends to surprise the markets and a rate hike, while expected, was not a given. The BoJ statement expressed hope that this year's wage negotiations would result in strong wage increases, as was the case last year. Governor Ueda has said in the past that he would raise rates provided that inflation was driven by higher wages, which would show that inflation was sustainable. Wage growth has been moving higher and this resulted in today's rate hike. Japan's inflation rate has been moving higher and the December inflation report, which came out today, showed core CPI climbed to 3%, up from 2.7% in November and in line with the market estimate. The core rate has hovered above the BoJ's 2% target for 2.5 years and at today's meeting, the BoJ upgraded its inflation outlook to above 2% until 2026. Predictably, Governor Ueda didn't provide a timeline for the next rate hike at his post-meeting press conference, but a May rate hike is on the table if the wage negotiations result in higher wages and inflation does not weaken unexpectedly. Another key factor in the timing of the next rate hike will be President Trump's trade policy. Trump had promised to levy tariffs on US trading partners on his first day in office but has delayed the tariffs until at least Feb. 1. The BoJ will want to see which direction Trump's trade policy is going before raising rates again. There is support at 154.78 and 153.27 156.49 and 158.00 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
S&P 500 hits all-time highsUS stock index futures were a touch lower this morning, pulling back following gains for all four majors on Thursday. Yesterday the S&P 500 finally broke above 6,100 to hit a fresh all-time high, while also posting a record close. The Dow and NASDAQ 100 were both around 1% below their respective all-time highs, while the mid-cap, domestically-focused Russell 2000 is now 6% adrift. Bear in mind how the Russell outperformed the other indices in the aftermath of Trump’s decisive electoral victory in November. Could this suggest that there are problems in the broader US stock market, away from the giant multinationals? The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is unchanged from yesterday at around 4.63%. The pullback in yields since last week’s benign inflation data is giving equities some support. The US dollar has fallen from the 26-month highs hit just under a fortnight ago. The Dollar Index has lost around 2.5% since then which is a significant move. Prior to Trump’s inauguration, the dollar had rallied, partly on the expectation that he would impose immediate swingeing tariffs from ‘Day 1’ as he threatened while on the campaign trail. The dollar retreated as tariffs weren’t forthcoming, and it fell further overnight following Trump’s call for an immediate cut in interest rates. His call comes just ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Although the probability of another cut from the Fed is realistically zero. The fourth quarter earnings season has had a positive start, and this is helping to support equities. Today brings results from a range of corporates across different sectors including American Express, Verizon Communications, NextEra Energy, HCA Healthcare and some regional banks. There are also updates on US Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
ON Semi is fundamentally undervalued and ready for a reversalTechnical View NASDAQ:ON ON bounce off from a bigger support area from 2022 at around $53 building an ascending triangle. We have a gap above our current price (which can function as a magnet for the stock price). A smaller resistance at $60 might be our first target and the bigger resistance at $77 could be our final target resulting in 36% ROI. The trade would be invalidated below $50. Since this is a bigger swing trade, I would not put my SL to close to the current stock price. If you’re interested why this is a mid- to long-term swing trade read the fundamental information below. Support Zones $50-53 Target Zones $60 $77 Fundamental View ON Semiconductor concluded the third quarter of 2024 with revenue amounting to $1,762 million, reflecting a 2% increase from the second quarter but a -19.2% year-over-year decline. Nevertheless, the revenue for the quarter exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.70%. The most significant revenue losses were observed in the industrial end-market, with figures reaching $439.90 million compared to the average estimate of $464.97 million, marking a -28.6% decrease. The gross margin experienced a 2% improvement, now constituting 45.4% of total revenue. Looking ahead, the acquisition of GlobalFoundries’ New York plant is anticipated to enhance the company's chip production capabilities. This facility is expected to maintain consistent production costs while simultaneously increasing production efficiency, in anticipation of a future rise in demand. The stock has decreased by 11.26% on a year-to-date basis, with a reported trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $4.03. Management has reported having over $1 billion in free cash flow and plans, according to Barron’s, to utilize half of each quarter’s cash flow to repurchase shares under onsemi’s Share Repurchase Program. The reduction in investments will contribute to increasing free cash flow margins, thereby reinforcing OnSemi’s objective of returning 50% of free cash flow to investors. This, combined with a projected slight improvement in sales growth and profitability, is expected to elevate EPS to $7.11 by 2027. Currently, the company's valuation appears reasonable, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.49, which is lower than 90% of the time over the past five years and significantly beneath the S&P 500 P/E ratio as well as the industry median P/E of 25.4. Based on analysts' projections for EPS and maintaining a steady P/E ratio, the company is anticipated to reach a price of $95.91 within the next two years. While this scenario may seem overly optimistic, it is evident that the market is currently undervaluing the stock, especially when compared to its main competitors, such as Texas Instruments and Analog Devices. Since EV is a superior trend I don’t think Trumps political decision will have an impact. In addition, “Vice President” Musk has a, let’s say, not so little interest in selling more EVs.
NASDAQ:ONLong
by LGNDRY-Capital
1
Gold - we are overbought, will there be a correction after ATH?Hi guys , we are looking into GOLD (XAU/USD). We have reached back to the ATH levels around 2,800 area. Currently on 1H and 4H the price is moving quite high in the RSI Indicator , reaching very overbought levels. Currently with President Donald Trump sitting on the chair in the White house we are seeing quite a lot of fundamentals which are reflecting over gold. This is why my entry would be build up as following: Entry: Pending order - Sell Stop @ 2,790 with following targets TP1: 2,760 TP2: 2,720 TP3: 2,690 Your stop loss can be based on your risk management strategy, but I would open it without and monitor the trade so I can follow up if the price continues above ATH and we have an Ascending Bull run, I would close and re-visit the strategy. Tell me in the comments what are your thoughts about this set-up and your overall analysis on Gold (XAU/USD)
TVC:GOLDShort
by DG55Capital
US30 Bullish After Retest Amid Policy UncertaintyFutures Dip Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty; Data and Earnings Awaited U.S. stock index futures dipped on Friday, weighed down by uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Investors are also awaiting key economic data and corporate earnings reports to gain insight into the state of the economy. US30 Technical Analysis The price is expected to retest 44400 before resuming its bullish trend. As long as the price trades above 44400, the bullish trend is likely to continue, targeting 44760. Key Levels Pivot Point: 44410 Resistance Levels: 44750, 44920, 45090 Support Levels: 44270, 44120, 43900 Trend Outlook Retest: Likely at 44400 Bullish Trend: As long as the price remains above 44400 previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi
1
USNAS100 Bullish Momentum Amid Lower Rate ExpectationsUSNAS100 Technical Analysis The price has stabilized in the bullish zone, supported by bullish momentum amid Trump’s push for lower interest rates. The Nasdaq is expected to maintain its upward trend as long as it trades above 21760, with stronger momentum above 21900, targeting 22100 and 22290. However, there is a possibility of a retest at 21760. If the price stabilizes below 21900, it may temporarily lose momentum before pushing higher. Key Levels Pivot Point: 21900 Resistance Levels: 22100, 22290, 22410 Support Levels: 21760, 21635, 21540 Trend Outlook Consolidation: Between 21760 and 21900 Bearish: Below 21760 Bullish: Above 21900 Previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
At least a 10% market gain for Berkshire in 2025.Berkshire is one of the smart companies that has been actively selling overvalued stocks and investing in more promising sectors lately. Political changes could also positively impact the company, as potential tariffs from Trump would benefit Buffett's furniture industry. It’s no secret that the U.S. imports massive amounts of furniture. Another part of the company’s operations is insurance, which accounts for about 26% of the company’s profit. It hasn’t entered any risky sectors related to the famous cases in Los Angeles. The company expects around $92 billion in revenue for Q4, and if this is achieved, Berkshire will close another record-breaking year. Thus, at least a 10% market gain for Berkshire in 2025.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by gorgevorgian
USDJPY Trade IdeaWith the Federal Reserve already adopting a dovish monetary policy stance and the significant divergence in policies between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve, USD/JPY appears to be an attractive candidate for a short swing trade. 🔍 A few days ago, I opened a position in this direction, and now, despite that position still being active, I’m adding a new one. 💡 Risk Management: The total risk for this project remains strictly controlled and does not exceed 2% of the total capital. What’s your analysis? 🤔👇
Short
by MasoudEskandari
1
EUR/USD Climbs Over 2.30% WeeklyFollowing stronger-than-expected EUR PMI results, EUR/USD surges this Friday, posting over 2.30% weekly gain to trade around 1.0515, though it is facing resistance near 1.0525. This recovery follows Monday's Jan. 13th low of 1.0177, the lowest price level since November 21, 2022. The dollar showed notable weakness in the cause of the week, with the dollar index (DXY) declining to 107.27. This provided momentum for the bullish movement in EUR/USD, further strengthening the pair. From a technical perspective, sellers may attempt to push the price back to the 1.0441 support level, where buyers could step in to regain momentum. A successful break above the 1.0525 resistance could open the door for a test of 1.0603. Conversely, if sellers manage to push the price below 1.0400, the next potential downside target lies at 1.0369. Breakouts beyond these levels remains possible. Later today, the release of U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI at 6:45 PM GMT+4 could play a key role in determining the next direction for EUR/USD. These data points will likely influence volatility and provide further clarity on the pair's trajectory.
by CFI
1
GBP usd The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, reflecting the bullish stance. On the upside, 1.2370 (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as next resistance before 1.2400 (round level, static level) and 1.2450 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). GBP/USD trades in a tight range near 1.2350 on Wednesday as the US Dollar stays on the back foot amid a positive shift seen in risk sentiment. Investors keep a close eye on comments from US President Donald Trump on trade policies.
Short
by Eliana74
1