$USINTR -Feds Cuts RatesECONOMICS:USINTR
(November/2024)
source: Federal Reserve
-The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September, in line with expectations.
Policymakers reiterated their previous message that they will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to borrowing costs.
On the economic front, the Fed noted that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.
Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
Inflation has made progress toward the 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
However, officials removed a reference they had “gained greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward the target.
Fundamental Analysis
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025.
Levels to watch: $26.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
FED RATE DAY , XAUUSD ANALYSIS SEMS 8-11-24🚨Fed Expected to Lower Rates, But Inflation Puts Limits on Future Cuts📌
The Federal Reserve is projected to reduce the federal funds rate by 0.25% on Thursday, bringing it to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. However, bond market signals suggest that the pace of future rate cuts may be slower than initially expected.
The yield on two-year Treasuries, a reliable indicator of Fed policy shifts, shows caution. This yield has historically anticipated Fed actions, such as rate hikes in 2021 and the easing measures started last September.
📝Gold Price Outlook Amid Fed Rate Cut📊
If the Fed opts for gradual rate cuts in the coming quarter, it could weaken the US dollar, which tends to boost gold as a non-yielding asset. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors.
Investors expect gold to rise following the rate cut, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, with the anticipated rate cuts already priced into gold's current price, the short-term impact may be limited.
Expected Price range as per our panel analysis :
🔻Upper Range : $2730-$2760-$2790-$2820-$2850
🔺Lower Range: $2650-$2620-$2590-$2560-$2520
Range Breakout:$2620-2790 will Lead to Further Decline or Further Ascend.
Despite this, analysts are optimistic that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce by year-end.( $2790 All time high on 31-10-24)
📌Gold and Interest Rates 📝💰
Gold generally moves inversely to interest rates—lower rates typically push gold prices higher by making non-yielding assets like gold more appealing.
As the Fed is set to lower rates this week, many investors predict a rise in gold prices. But if these cuts are already priced in, the short-term impact could be minimal.
GER30 forecast This is GER30 forecast
I'm looking for sell opportunities, but the is possible buy opportunity.
I'm look for this current 1d candlestick to close under the 19410.00 level. Then tomorrow's 1d candlestick to show bearish power/close bearish under the 19305.00 level. Then I will be looking for retest on the 19305.00 level for continuation of sell.
If this doesn't happen, then I will be looking for buy opportunity above 19410.00 level.
but the trade will be based on technicals, sentiment and fundamentals.
Update will be given
EURGBP long Thursday Nov 7, 2024A long on EURGBP based on interest rate differential between the Euro and the GBP.
Trading is based almost entirely on technical indicators that use past price action to forecast future price action. However, the trader who ignores fundamental forces that move markets is at a disadvantage to traders who factor fundamental data into their trading decisions.
The fundamental data that have the most effect on exchange rates are interest rates, which affect the perceived value of currencies. While central bank rates are not volatile, the yields on government bonds, such as the U.S. 10-year treasury note, fluctuate on all time frames in global bond markets. Those yields reflect the expectation the market has as to where future central bank rates will go. Bond yields are often a leading indicator of interest rates and of exchange rates. In the forex market, the metric that applies to a currency pair is the interest rate differential, especially the delta, or change in the interest rate differential, on various time frames.
This trade shows a case where movement of the interest rate differential, expressed in basis points, in the positive direction was a leading indicator of movement of the EURGBP currency pair in the same direction.
GBP/USD climbs after Bank of England cut ratesThe British pound has rebounded on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2983, up 0.81% on the day. A day earlier, the pound took a drubbing, sliding 1.2%.
There was no surprise as the Bank of England lowered the key interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75%. The markets had priced in the move at close to 100% and the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of the cut, with one member voting to hold rates at 5%.
The BoE has now lowered rates twice since its easing cycle in August. BoE policymakers had signaled that a rate cut was coming, as September inflation dropped sharply to 1.7%, the first time in over three years that inflation dropped below the BoE’s target of 2%.
The central bank is expected to lower rates gradually in modest increments of 25 basis points in the coming months, but last week’s UK budget could complicate things. The budget included tax hikes and increased spending, which is expected to boost inflation. That could mean a pause at the next BoE meeting in December and a slower pace of rate cuts next year.
The Federal Reserve meets later today, in the shadow of the dramatic US election, in which Republican Donald Trump cruised to a surprisingly easy victory over Democrat Kamala Harris. The Fed is virtually certain to trim rates by 0.25% to 4.5%-4.75%. With inflation easing, the Fed is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2025.
GBP/USD pushed above resistance at 1.2920 earlier and then tested resistance at 1.3007
There is support at 1.2793 and 1.2706
$GBINTR -B.o.E Cuts RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR
(November/2024)
source: Bank of England
-The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, in line with expectations, following a hold in September and a quarter-point cut in August.
The U.S Fed ECONOMICS:USINTR is also expected to cut rates by 25bps today, following a larger 50bps reduction in September.
Traders are keen for signals on future policy, particularly after Trump’s re-election.
Bitcoin standard in progress..This idea is more of a message than an investment speculation. And a reset of my previous ideas with shitcoins reminding me of where I was.
We need to learn from the past and put it behind us, looking to the future because our actions affect our future, not our past. Much has changed since my first experience with cryptocurrencies (early 18). Yes, it usually starts with cryptocurrencies, rarely bitcoin only. And when bitcoin only, few can resist the lure of shitcoiners, the potential profit. In short, I don't think a bitcoin maxis can grow without proof-of-work, without cutting through the jungle of scammers. But if the individual in question is a thoughtful creature and occasionally examines the arguments for/against, why yes/no, and is not lazy to verify the arguments in question, to read something, they will come to the inevitable conclusion, that's my opinion. My opinion is that we are very lucky that bitcoin was created, we have the hope of freedom, versus the inevitable inflationary, monetary and tax bullying, surveillance by the state. We are fortunate that it came into existence as it did - naturally, anonymously. That is unrepeatable in this day and age. That alone is a bulletproof foundation and a guarantee of my peaceful sleep. I could list dozens more. But I won't prolong it.
Thanks for bitcoin , for the hope of a better future.
Always and forever bullish , there is no ceiling. Dips are discounts, that's all. Volatility is a feature, not a flaw. Welcome volatility , learn to work with it. It's a game for the long term. Forget fiat profits, only increase the stack of bitcoins owned. Use HW wallets for your savings! Once the bull market hits, it's time to reward yourself, enjoy life, send some of that bitcoin back out into the world for some fine goods, services. Bitcoin is money that makes sense to save in. Simple.
Satoshi thank you!
AUD/CAD Sell Strategy: Testing Resistance with Downside Targe
Trade Setup: AUD/CAD is currently selling at 0.9266, targeting 0.8939.
Key Resistance Level: The 0.9270 level acts as resistance, aligning with a significant Fibonacci retracement.
Recent High & Low:
High: Recent high around 0.9380.
Low: Current low near 0.9102.
Technical Signals:
Resistance at 0.9270 marks a potential reversal zone, reflecting selling pressure.
Bearish momentum is expected toward 0.8939, which is contingent on sustained downward movement.
Market Context: Recent highs and lows frame a broad trading range, with Fibonacci levels adding technical validity to sell-side positions near resistance
The Case for MinersBTC is now entering its final form. As I see it, the period beginning now and progressing over the coming months is likely to be the most rapid and vicious ascent of this entire market cycle beginning from the post-FTX lows. This cycle shall also culminate in Bitcoin's long-awaited rise to its greatest potential: accumulation on a global sovereign scale.
Thus, the time to pay attention and allocate to BTC beta, especially miners, has reached its apex. I'm a bit late to this post as I have already positioned in several miners, namely CLSK and WULF, but plan to finish accumulating shares and long calls rapidly. The best entries tend to be on daily closes above previous monthly or quarterly highs, especially when the previous monthly candle was a doji or hammer, indicating accumulation and downtrend exhaustion. This is precisely what we just saw with the candle of the month of September 2024, and I entered on the first daily close above its $10.47 high.
This post is generally for made for posterity and on the eve of a possible daily close confirming a textbook H&S bottom. While the measured move of this patter coincides with the yearly POC around ~$16-17, and it may well see some trouble accepting there, I plan to hold the majority of my longs into the 1st fib extension at $35, and, depending on conditions, will leave some to run to the 2nd extension around $52. RSI indicates that we haven't even entered the bull market phase of this run. Have fun and good luck to all - exciting times lie ahead!
HolderStat | BTC has reached a new ATHHaving analyzed 100 mln bitcoin wallets, we formed an index reflecting their sentiments. And here are the conclusions we came to 👇
👉 The current values are at 62 points, and over the last 24 hours 100% of transactions were made for sale.
💡 After Trump's victory, the cryptocurrency market surged and BTC reached a new ATH, while the observed wallets mostly refrained from transactions and some made sales. This behavior can be seen as both anticipation of a BTC correction and a liquidity spillover into altcoins in pursuit of greater profits.
📌 Considering the correction scenario, it is worth noting that the levels of $73,000 and $70,000 may become a significant barrier to decline. Also, we should not forget that today the Fed will announce a decision on the key rate, which may affect the volatility of the price.
PayPal: No Hidden FeesPayPal continues to solidify its position as a global leader in digital payments, with a growing influence in e-commerce, financial technology, and consumer finance. PayPal's legacy of innovation, coupled with its strategic expansion into emerging markets and technologies, makes it a compelling investment for those looking to capitalize on the next wave of financial technology advancements. NASDAQ:PYPL
Financial Performance:
Revenue Growth: PayPal reported a 7% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q2 2024, largely driven by the success of its merchant services and consumer financial products, which together saw a robust 10% growth. This highlights PayPal's ability to adapt to changing market demands and expand its revenue streams.
Earnings Beat: The company exceeded analyst expectations with an EPS of $1.45, outperforming the consensus estimate of $1.32. This marks PayPal's fifth consecutive quarter of earnings beats, showcasing its operational efficiency and strong market positioning.
Cash Flow: PayPal's free cash flow improved to $6.8 billion for the first half of 2024, a 9% increase compared to the same period last year. This strong cash flow provides PayPal with the liquidity needed for continued innovation, strategic acquisitions, and potential shareholder returns.
Fintech Leadership:
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Expansion: In 2024, PayPal's BNPL offerings experienced a 20% increase in active users. This significant growth underscores the platform's appeal to both consumers and merchants seeking flexible payment solutions, particularly in a rising interest rate environment where credit accessibility is tightening.
Cryptocurrency Integration: PayPal's cryptocurrency trading and payment services gained momentum in 2024, with a 15% increase in cryptocurrency transactions on its platform. As digital currencies become more mainstream, PayPal's early adoption positions it as a key player in this evolving market.
Strategic Acquisitions: The acquisition of Paidy, a Japan-based BNPL firm, in late 2023 has already started to deliver positive results in 2024. This move enhances PayPal's presence in Asia, a region with immense growth potential, making PayPal a more formidable competitor in the global digital payments space.
Partnerships: The expansion of PayPal's partnership with Shopify in 2024 is proving to be a win-win, delivering joint e-commerce and payment solutions that cater to global merchants. This collaboration further strengthens PayPal's role as a leading technology enabler in the e-commerce ecosystem.
Technical Analysis:
Stock Performance: As of August 23, 2024, PayPal's stock is trading at $70 per share, reflecting an 40% year-to-date increase. Despite this strong performance, the stock is still trading at a forward P/E ratio of 35x. This suggests that PayPal's stock may be undervalued relative to its peers, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors.
Price Target: Analysts remain bullish on PayPal's growth prospects, with a consensus price target of $220, representing a significant upside over the next 24 months. This optimistic outlook is supported by the continued expansion of PayPal's high-margin digital payment and fintech businesses, as well as its strategic moves in the BNPL and cryptocurrency spaces.
Fundamental Perspective: While PayPal does not currently offer a dividend, its strong balance sheet, robust cash flow, and impressive growth potential make it an attractive investment for those looking to gain exposure to the rapidly evolving financial technology sector. The company's ability to consistently beat earnings expectations, coupled with its strategic focus on innovation and market expansion, underscores its potential to deliver long-term value to shareholders.
Upcoming Earnings Dates:
Q3 2024 Earnings: October 26, 2024 (preliminary)
Q4 2024 Earnings: January 30, 2025 (measurable)
PayPal's continued innovation and strategic growth make it a standout choice for investors looking to ride the wave of financial technology advancements. This revision emphasizes both the technical and fundamental aspects of PayPal's current position, highlighting why it remains a strong buy as of August 23, 2024.
$71.80 NASDAQ:PYPL
Bitcoin to 100k this year?Hey guyys!
So Trump won the election and we have new BTC ATH!
And I think we all wondering where we can go now?
Let's check the chart and daily we have bullish MA cross, huge volume on this election day.
But, another day volume is not pretty nice and looks like more manipulative movement.
So I think if we will stay long at the ATH level without moving up with descending volumes, we could potentially see some correction.
If we stay above 69k, most likely after this short correction we can go up, if we're not holding this level we can go to 59-63k level.
Cause real rally for me, will happen in 2025.
What's your ideas, guys? Let's discuss in the comments? Are we going to 100k this year or only in 2025?
Tesla’s Power Move: $300 Broken, $322 in SightUpdate:
Good morning, trading family. It’s your guide, Mindbloome Trader, here to remind you to trade what you see.
Tesla has broken through $300 and is holding strong. If it keeps this momentum, $322 is a realistic target. However, if it slips below $300, it could just be pausing before its next move.
Stay patient, follow the trend, and trust the process. Let the market show you the way.
Mindbloome Trading/ Kris
Trade What You See
Why $OM May Be the Investment to WatchMarkets is doing well, and I’m buying more NASDAQ:OM 🕉️
With impressive growth and increasing adoption, NASDAQ:OM is quietly gaining momentum as it approaches a strong support level, which I think is key for an upward push 📈
I believe the bottom is in, and from here, we could see a solid move toward 1.8, with potential to reach $3 by year-end.
Long-term, I’m confident NASDAQ:OM has a path to $10+.
#MANTRA #RWA #CryptoNews #Investing
GBP/USD tests key 1.30 handle ahead of FOMCThe pound rallied following the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates earlier. Governor Bailey refrained from defining what “gradual” would mean for the pace of future cuts. The GBP/USD rally was aided by a sharp drop in the US dollar. The focus is now turning to the FOMC rate decision, which means the greenback could change course again.
The Bank of England lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, aligning with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of the cut, as anticipated. However, the BoE maintains it can’t lower rates “too quickly or by too much,” opting instead for a more measured approach. The central bank sees a gradual easing as appropriate, keeping to its September guidance on rates.
The recent budget is expected to lift inflation slightly, adding around 0.5% to CPI at its peak according to the BoE —just above the forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Like the OBR, the BoE isn’t expecting significant economic growth from this budget. As it stands, the Bank intends to continue cutting rates gradually over the coming months. This should keep the GBP under pressure.
Will the GBP/USD now hold below the key 1.30 handle or break above it? What it does here will determine the near-term direction. All eyes are on the Fed Chair Powell.
The Fed could shed light on the central bank’s next steps. Markets are fully expecting a 25-basis-point reduction. Chair Powell may steer clear of any commitment to a rapid easing cycle, especially if he believes Trump’s policies could drive inflation. Any indication of hawkishness could boost bond yields further, which could give the dollar another boost. Even though rate expectations have shifted, significant changes in market trends are unlikely in the immediate term. However, over the coming quarters, rising US yields could strengthen the dollar, adding pressure on other economies while supporting the US market’s broader trend.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
11/7/24 - $asts - Y'all ready to ball? Bot it!11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ASTS
Y'all ready to ball? Bot it!
- honestly i'm still pretty cash heavy, so i'm playing ITM calls (and have started taking profits today as well... still hold NASDAQ:META , NYSE:TSM , NYSE:UBER as well as added on the top to my long-dated NASDAQ:NXT 's and hold a nice bag of OTC:BITW too).
- but that being said, with solar re-popping. i "get" that NASDAQ:ASTS "isn't" space X... and elon has his opinions. he's a competitor. he's an edge lord. his job is to do this - duh.
- for a stock that has such high interest, cool application... i'd expect IV to jump around earnings next week, or even more generally if risk remains bid. can't say i'm in for a lot - but i have some $20 C's for next week. seems like an interesting bet. and if the stock actually sells off i can decide to take a larger shares, or longer-date ITM calls position like i did my other core names above.
- what do you think. shall we ball, brawl or bawl?
TO THE MOON ;)
V