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Fundamental Analysis

NQ: An ongoing storm after tariffs came into effect!Good day! Finally tariffs are on! A response from worldwide is imminently expected. NQ and all US equities, US dollar and Bonds and anything from US are in a free fall! A definition of a self-inflicted destruction! Anyhow...Today's plan: A shy bounce (23.6 Fib) during Asian session. Price created a bearish flag that is already broken. A retest around 38.2 fib (19115) is possible if Service data is inline. Otherwise, price will continue the down move.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
1D Trend Reversal: Get Ready for the Bullish Surge!Momentum is gathering on the daily chart, signaling that the long downward phase may finally be coming to an end. Key indicators are turning positive, and price action looks poised to break out of its slump. This setup is loaded with potential for a swift bullish run —keep a close watch for further volume expansion and a decisive close above resistance. If the move confirms, it could spark the next major rally . Strap in—this trend flip could be the catalyst bulls have been waiting for!
KRAKEN:FILUSD
by brolal
Another great trade for XAUUSD (GOLD) todayAfter seeing the price action of monday to wednesday, it gave a hint as to what to expect for today. Since i was expecting a consolidation reversal week i knew then that thursday will sweep monday to wednesday and do a reversal for today. Combining it with my multi timeframe analysis from daily to 1H with my entry in the 5m timeframe, i was able to capture this 1:7R trade for today... For tomorrow my expectation would be an expansion friday candle going down targeting the daily +FVG to complete the ERL to IRL scenario...
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by alfoxDayTrader
Catrion Catering Holding 6004✈️ Aviation-Themed Trading Captions "Every flight needs a runway — the market is just taxiing before takeoff." "Before soaring to 179.8, it’s just aligning on the runway. Fasten your seatbelts!" "Just like a Saudi Airlines jet — a slight dip for alignment, then full throttle to the skies!" "Descending slightly, not to fall — but to gather momentum for liftoff!" "Markets, like planes, don’t take off from mid-air — they need the runway first." "Runway 102.8 cleared. Destination: 179.8. Ready for takeoff!" "Don't fear the pullback — it's just taxiing before liftoff." "From the runway at 102.8, straight up to cruising altitude 179.8 — fasten your trading seatbelts!"
TADAWUL:6004Long
by Asif_Brain_Waves
The battle for the 3200 mark is imminentThe United States has officially launched a tax increase policy on major global trading partners. The wide range of goods involved and the high tax increase are rare in history. The essence of the tax increase is to require countries to have the same tax rate on US goods as the US export tax rate to them. For example, if Indian motorcycles face a 2.4% tax in the United States, and American motorcycles are taxed 100% in India, the United States will reversely tax Indian motorcycles at 100%. This "tit-for-tat" mechanism directly leads to a surge in the price of imported goods, and companies are forced to restructure their supply chains. Next, once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, gold is bound to reach a new level. Cutting interest rates is the general trend. When the economy is down, only by cutting interest rates can economic development be stimulated, and raising interest rates will only push the economy to the brink of collapse. The US economy is already in collapse, not on the edge! After the tariff news, gold quickly retreated to 3105 and then soared, reaching a high of 3168. Gold, hold the position of 3100 US dollars, which is the key to determine the long and short positions. The rising market is not about staring at the high point speculation, but the gains and losses of the key support area. As long as the key support is not broken, the rising trend will not see the top. Gold operation suggestion: long around 3120-3110
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
Trump shakes up the markets: Strategies and impact on oilBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst Former President Donald Trump's recent decision to impose across-the-board tariffs has had a strong impact on global markets. European and Asian stock markets reacted with significant declines, while the oil market experienced notable volatility. Impact on the oil market The announcement of tariffs has affected global demand and economic expectations, generating downward pressure on crude oil prices. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recorded declines of more than 3%, reflecting uncertainty about economic growth and energy demand. In addition, the unexpected increase in US crude oil stocks has contributed to the bearish sentiment in the sector. Possible scenarios and trading strategies 1. Technical perspective: The drop in oil prices has taken Brent to the $72 level and WTI to $69. If these key levels are lost, we could see an extension of the falls towards $70 and $67 respectively. 2. Hedging strategy: In the face of increased volatility, traders can consider hedging strategies through options or futures contracts, reducing exposure to risk. 3. Opportunities in safe-haven assets: Uncertainty could continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen. The VIX index has shown a rebound, indicating an increase in risk aversion. BRENT Analysis Yesterday the US market closed with a very pronounced bearish candle that de-escalated the price by more than 3 dollars. Despite having a previous sequence of candlesticks with relative volume, this did not prevent the day from closing negative for crude oil. Currently, after an Asian session without volume and the price recovering to the POC zone at $72.98, the European market has opened with a bearish session without excessive volume. A clearly oversold RSI can be seen at 29.55% so there could be a price reversal to the upside above the check point as soon as this downtrend eases. However, there has been a crossing of the 50-average below the 100-average that could indicate a bearish continuation until it meets the 200-average at a price that coincides around the indicated control point. It would not be unusual for the market to neutralize possible bullish attempts after a significant pullback after touching the high zone at least 3 times this week near the highs of $75.17. The central channel that has formed seems to be supporting at the lows of $71.88 so perhaps there could be a drop to this price zone to then gain momentum to the middle zone again. If this price does not hold, it could test the $70.27 area. Conclusion The U.S. tariff increase, bringing the average rate to 22% (its highest level since 1910), has dramatically changed the global economic landscape. Trade retaliation from the EU and China could further intensify volatility. In this context, it is crucial for investors to closely follow market trends and adapt their strategies to this new environment.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
The Day Ahead Economic Data Releases (Market Impact) US: March ISM Services PMI – Key gauge of economic activity in the services sector. A higher-than-expected number could fuel rate hike concerns. February Trade Balance – Trade deficit/surplus could influence USD sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims – A lower figure may strengthen USD as it signals a strong labor market. UK: March Official Reserves Changes – Could impact GBP if there are significant shifts. China: March Caixin Services PMI – A strong reading could boost market sentiment, supporting risk assets. Italy & Eurozone: March Services PMI (Italy) & February PPI (Eurozone) – Weak data could reinforce ECB rate cut expectations, affecting EUR. Canada: February International Merchandise Trade – Affects CAD; trade surplus could strengthen the currency. Switzerland: March CPI – Inflation trends impact SNB policy expectations and CHF. Central Bank Events (Market Moving) US Fed Speakers (Jefferson, Cook) – Any hints on future rate hikes/cuts will drive USD and bond markets. ECB March Meeting Account – Insight into ECB’s rate path; dovish tone may weaken EUR. BoE March DMP Survey – Expectations on inflation and growth, potentially influencing GBP. Geopolitical Event NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting (April 3-4) – Any geopolitical developments could impact risk sentiment, affecting oil prices, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets. Trading Relevance USD: High impact from ISM Services PMI, jobless claims, and Fed speeches. EUR: ECB minutes and Eurozone PPI could drive movement. GBP: BoE survey and UK reserves data in focus. CAD: Trade balance key for CAD direction. CHF: Inflation print may influence SNB rate expectations. Risk Sentiment: Watch China PMI and NATO meeting for broader market impact. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Gold (XAU/USD) : Bullish Setup with Key Demand Zone🔹 Trend Line & Demand Zone 📈 * The trend line shows an upward trend. 🚀 * The demand zone 🟦 acts as strong support, where buyers are likely to step in. 🔹 Price Action 🔍 * Price is bouncing off the demand zone ➡️ Bullish Signal 📊🔥 * Higher lows forming, indicating potential upward momentum. 🔹 Trade Setup 🎯 ✅ Entry Point: Near the demand zone 🟦 ❌ Stop Loss: 🔽 3,099.26 (Below demand zone) 🎯 Target Point: ⬆️ 3,148.58 (Key resistance area) 🔹 Expected Movement 🏆 * A slight pullback 📉 before a strong push up 📈💪 * If price holds the demand zone, 🚀 potential rally ahead! 🔹 Risk-to-Reward Ratio ⚖️ * Favorable trade setup ✅ High reward, controlled risk 🎯 🔹 Final Verdict 🔥 📊 Bullish Bias ✅ As long as demand zone holds! 🚨 Warning: If price breaks below 3,099.26, expect further downside!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Jameshead007
$SAUD,Al Baraka Bank Egypt S.A.E. (EGX: SAUD) Al Baraka Bank Egypt S.A.E. (EGX: SAUD) is an Egyptian bank providing corporate and retail banking services domestically and internationally. Financial Overview: • Market Capitalization: Approximately EGP 8.81 billion. • Revenue (2024): EGP 6.46 billion, a 37.59% increase from the previous year. • Net Profit (2024): EGP 2.59 billion, up 36.74% from the prior year. • Earnings Per Share (EPS): EGP 3.56. Dividend Information: The bank announced an annual dividend of EGP 0.85 per share for the 2024 earnings, with a yield of 7.02%. The ex-dividend date is April 14, 2025, and the payment date is April 16, 2025. Valuation Estimates: 1) Book Value Per Share ( EGP 17.26 per share.) 2) Cairo Capital Securities: Fair value estimate of EGP 23.8 per share. 3) Ostoul Securities Brokerage: Fair value estimate of EGP 15.17 per share, based on the sector's P/E ratio. Financial Ratios: • Return on Equity (ROE): 26.97%. • Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 3.41. • Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 0.69. Technical Analysis: • The current Stock Price is below Book Value Per Share and close to 200-day EMA. • 52-Week Range: EGP 9.97 to EGP 14.80 o Wyckoff Theory: The stock has been in an accumulation phase since May 2024, indicating potential for upward movement. o Elliot Wave Analysis: Currently in wave 5, with a target price (TP) of EGP 18.30. o Gann Analysis: Projects a TP of EGP 26.60 by June 2025. Price Targets: • TP1 (Point of Control): EGP 14.00 • TP2 (Elliot Wave Analysis): EGP 18.30 • TP3 (Gann Analysis): EGP 26.60 by June 2025. Please note that financial markets are subject to volatility. It's advisable to consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
EGX:SAUDLong
by maminpip
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow. The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels. 📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown 1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed: Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend. Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength. Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in. 2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure 🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower. 🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold. 🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal. 🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy 3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it: 📉 Sell Entry: The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level. 📍 Stop Loss (SL): A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias. 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily. TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio. 4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward. Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2. Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control. 📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment 🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control. 🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup. 🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues. 📊 Final Thought: This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅ Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
ENA About to Collapse or One Last Rally Before the Fall?Yello, Paradisers! Is ENA about to crash hard, or is a sneaky rally waiting to trap late bulls? Read this before making your next move! 💎#ENAUSDT has recently formed a Change of Character (CHOCH) while leaving behind a supply zone and an imbalance. Currently, we expect an upside correction toward $0.4333 and $0.4507, but this move is likely to be short lived. If the price taps these levels and faces strong resistance expect a sharp rejection, especially with the descending trendline and EMA 50 acting as barriers to bullish momentum. This setup suggests ENA is in a prime position for further downside unless it breaks above the supply zone. 💎If #ENAUSD fails to break the supply zone, a rapid sell-off toward the $0.34 support zone is highly likely. A visible gap imbalance further increases the probability of the price filling the gap before any potential reversal. Volume analysis also shows a clear surge in bearish activity, confirming strong selling pressure in the market. 💎The $0.34 level remains the most crucial support where buyers may attempt to step in. However, if this fails to hold, the next major demand zone sits around $0.30, where a deeper correction could unfold. Until a significant bullish breakout occurs, the risk of further downside remains high. 💎If the price manages to break above the supply zone, it would invalidate the bearish setup and could fuel a stronger rally. However, as long as the descending trendline and EMA 50 continue to hold back bullish momentum, the bearish outlook remains intact. 💎Will ENA hold support or break down further? Drop your thoughts in the comments! Are you positioning yourself for a move, or are you waiting for confirmation? Let’s discuss! Stay sharp, Paradisers! The market rewards patience, discipline, and strategic thinking. Trade smart. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
1
S&P 500 on Edge: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping Market TrendsMarket Overview: The Shockwave of New Tariffs The S&P 500 is facing heightened volatility following former President Donald Trump’s newly proposed tariffs. Investors are grappling with concerns over economic growth, inflation, and potential trade retaliation. While markets initially showed resilience, the broader trend suggests growing unease as analysts dissect the long-term impact. Since the announcement, the S&P 500 has shown choppy movements, attempting to hold key support levels. However, increased selling pressure could signal deeper corrections ahead. Breaking Down the Tariffs: What’s at Stake? Trump’s tariff plan includes: • A 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods • A 25% tariff on automobile imports • Additional country-specific trade restrictions These policies aim to boost domestic manufacturing but risk disrupting global supply chains, impacting corporate profit margins, and inflating consumer prices. The biggest concern? Potential retaliatory tariffs from trade partners, which could escalate tensions and further pressure equities. Technical Analysis: S&P 500 at a Crossroads Key Support and Resistance Levels • Support: 5,000 (psychological level), 4,850 (50-day moving average) • Resistance: 5,200 (recent highs), 5,300 (all-time high zone) The S&P 500 recently tested its 50-day moving average, a critical indicator of short-term market sentiment. If selling pressure intensifies, a break below this level could lead to a deeper pullback toward 4,800. Momentum Indicators • RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering near 45, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Shows a bearish crossover, suggesting potential downside pressure • Volume Trends: Increasing on red days, signaling distribution rather than accumulation The combination of technical weakness and fundamental uncertainty points to a cautious trading environment in the coming weeks. Sector Impact: Winners & Losers Winners ✔ Domestic Industrials & Manufacturing – Companies benefiting from protectionist policies may see increased demand. ✔ Defense & Aerospace – Historically resilient during geopolitical and economic uncertainty. ✔ Commodity Producers – Rising inflation could lift materials and energy stocks. Losers ❌ Technology & Semiconductors – Supply chain disruptions and higher import costs could weigh on margins. ❌ Automotive Industry – Higher tariffs on imported vehicles could hurt both manufacturers and consumers. ❌ Retail & Consumer Goods – Increased costs may be passed on to consumers, dampening demand. Investor Playbook: Navigating the Uncertainty Short-Term Strategies • Hedge with Volatility Plays: The VIX has been ticking higher, making it an attractive hedge against market swings. • Watch Key Support Levels: A break below 4,850 on the S&P 500 could signal further downside, while a bounce from current levels may present a short-term buying opportunity. • Sector Rotation: Shift focus to industries that historically perform well during protectionist policies, such as domestic manufacturing and commodities. Long-Term Outlook While the market is reacting negatively to tariff announcements, historical data suggests that initial sell-offs can eventually lead to stabilization as businesses adjust. However, if tariffs escalate into a full-scale trade war, expect prolonged market turbulence similar to the 2018 tariff battle with China. Final Thoughts The S&P 500 is at a critical juncture. If trade tensions escalate, expect increased volatility and further downside pressure. However, if negotiations ease concerns, markets could stabilize and resume their upward trajectory. For now, traders should proceed with caution, keep an eye on technical indicators, and be prepared for potential market shocks. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is just a short-term correction or the beginning of a broader market shift. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Stock prices are subject to market risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SP:SPX
by Invest_MTS
The long-short sweep may still explodeThe tariffs were also successfully implemented. In response, the market bulls and bears also responded strongly. After all, the 3105-3142 area rose and fell in seconds, which was a terrifying market. Of course, to be honest, this wave of turbulence was mostly caused by institutions. After all, the market smashing was also extremely strong. However, I don’t agree with the impact of the tariffs implemented last night. First of all, looking back at the market situation, Trump said that tariffs would be imposed on many countries, which actually meant a 20% retaliatory tariff on the European Union. As for some other countries, only a 10% general levy was implemented, which relatively resulted in an unequal tariff situation. Of course, Trump also reiterated that Canada and Mexico still have tariff exemptions in a limited range of goods. So what impact will this situation have on the bulls and bears of gold? To be honest, personally, I have undoubtedly overestimated the announcement of this tariff. In other words, the implementation of this tariff is a bit insufficient in my eyes. After all, I expected that Trump would make major changes in his previous speech. As a result, it is a significant reduction compared to his previous years in office. This has also limited the outbreak of risk aversion. Of course, trade risks definitely exist, but through the matter of adding Mexico, this is completely negotiable. For this tariff event, I don’t think there is a big risk stimulus. Of course, the key is to see whether the market buys it. If the market thinks it will stimulate long-term risk aversion, then it will inevitably be pushed up by buying. However, the intensity of yesterday’s tariffs was not strong in my opinion. This may also limit the outbreak of longs to a certain extent. After all, the market’s expectations for it were too strong in the early stage, which also led to the early rise of longs, which also included the digestion of news. For this, you still need to be cautious. Then looking back at the current market, the tariffs have been implemented, and in a blink of an eye, we will also welcome the announcement of non-agricultural data. As far as the current market is concerned, the various US economic data have also improved relatively. After all, the substantial growth of ADP has undoubtedly dispelled the rumors of economic downturn. After all, the warming of the labor market undoubtedly reflects the warming of the US economy. Under the influence of tariffs, it has indeed boosted the US economy. Of course, the impact of the data is not just that. The current remarks about the slowdown in inflation are self-defeating. Due to the implementation of tariffs, inflation is likely to rise further. This directly hits the Fed's expectations of a rate cut, and the warming of the labor market has further limited the possibility of the Fed implementing a rate cut. In this regard, no matter what the final result of the market outlook is, based on the current situation, I personally think that it is really difficult for the Fed to implement a rate cut this year, which has also led to a reduction in the momentum of gold bulls. Moreover, if this situation continues, the Fed does not rule out the possibility of being forced to implement a rate hike. Although Trump is also calling on the Fed to cut interest rates, the fact is that it cannot be implemented at present, unless the US talks with other countries again during this period to discuss a reduction, as it did with Canada and Mexico. Otherwise, as time goes by, as the tariff issue intensifies, inflation will be restricted, thus affecting the implementation of the Fed's policy. At this time, you can pay more attention to the market dynamics. So for today, although gold is currently stimulated to rise, I don't quite agree with the emergence of new highs for gold bulls. To put it bluntly, for now, even if a new high appears, gold breaks through 3160, which is more of a possibility of inducing more. I am not saying that I am blindly bearish, but you have actually seen that gold is blocked at a high level, and the momentum of falling back is also extremely strong, especially gold started three consecutive positives last Friday, and as of Tuesday this week, it stopped falling near the highest point of 3149. The bull outbreak is already facing exhaustion. Even if the bulls rise again today, where can they rise, to 3200? Then what? You should know that it is cold at the top. Unless there is absolute bullish momentum to support gold to continue to rise, there will be a peak at any time. The short space is still large, just waiting for an opportunity. In particular, the sharp increase in ADP has led to the market betting on the negative non-agricultural data. Once gold is blocked from rising, it will inevitably collapse in an instant. Especially when this kind of news stimulates gold to rise, retail investors in the market will not consider its fundamentals. They will only think that interest rate cuts are absolutely good for bulls and the implementation of tariffs is absolutely good for bulls, which will lead to buying. This is also a chance for institutions to snipe bulls. For this, for today and tomorrow, even if gold breaks a new high, you should not blindly follow the trend. Remember to guard against the possibility of a resurgence of shorts. In this regard, I personally prefer the possibility of shorts looking back at the possibility of breaking 3100 and falling to 3080-3050. You can be cautious about this. As for today's opening, gold opened high at 3141, and encountered a flash crash at 3128 at the opening, and then rebounded to 3139 and then flash crashed to 3123. This performance can be said to be extremely strong. In this case, I certainly cannot notify the operation. After all, the fluctuation is too fast. With a quote every second, even if you give an order, you may not be able to enter the market in time. For this, you still need to wait for the market to calm down. As for today's market, the fluctuation may be relatively strong. You can wait and see and be cautious. As for the specific operation details, I will give them in real time. Remember to strictly follow my requirements to control the position and stop loss. ​ ​
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
Kering: an ugly duckling or is there value there?This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Kering is trading under the 200 EUR mark, at 190 EUR per share. That’s roughly 1.57x price/book and 1.4x price/sales. Remember — Kering not only owns Gucci, but also Bottega, Saint Laurent, Balenciaga, McQueen, Brioni, Boucheron, etc. It is not a one trick pony. Mr. Market hated Demna’s appointment to Gucci, which I think is a little bit misguided — Demna’s couture at Balenciaga was top-notch and I think it’s a mistake to think of him as only a ‘street style’ guy. But let’s talk numbers, provided by Eden GPT — if you project out earnings to FY27 and assume Gucci grows at ~10% and other houses at ~5% (very conservative, btw, considering how much Gucci has already pulled back in terms of growth and how Bottega, Saint Laurent continue to either grow or sit relatively flat). Anyway, let’s also assume the company continues to trade at a fwd discount to peers. That implies a +146% upside at 15x earnings to the current stock price. There’s a lot of rope to be wrong there — even a 50% re-rating is quite lovely, and doesn’t take any kind of “moonshot” to find yourself there. Now, you need to remember that fashion isn’t about yesterday, it’s about the now, and the market is at a perpetual disadvantage to fashion because they are looking at yesterday’s numbers. In other words, fashion is like an even more bipolar version of Mr. Market — today’s trend is today’s price; unfortunately tomorrow’s trend is never priced in. Now, I don’t have to do a lot of heavy lifting to remember that all of Kering’s houses have been fairly fashionable throughout time. Nor do I have to do much heavy lifting to remember that Gucci did incredibly well and then it did less well (a trend throughout Gucci’s history). Gucci is cyclical, and tends to go from terrible designer to great designer. The trend infers a “great designer”, given Sabato’s underperformance. Demna already quadrupled Balenciaga’s sales. It doesn’t take a great leap of faith to think he’ll do well at Gucci — the cynicism is overblown. Point is, if you assume — even at limited growth — that Kering and its houses continue to grow modestly, then you are looking at a company that trades at a severe discount to peers. No, Harry Styles isn’t wearing Gucci — but remember that Styles and co aren’t the primary drivers of growth, it’s much bigger than that. And remember that Pinault’s family office, Artemis, owns CAA, one of the big two talent agencies — it will be no surprise that Zoe Kravitz wore Saint Laurent at the Vanity Fair Oscar’s party, and that Kravitz is represented by CAA. In other words, there’s a clear symbiosis between Kering owning these houses and the Pinault family office owning CAA. Expect to see more Kering houses on the red carpet, in magazines, etc. That’s a lot of free publicity. Bottom line — there’s a lot of overblown fear here (and yes, those Trump tariffs aren’t helping). With so much potential upside, it’s hard to not see Kering as “value”.
EURONEXT:KER
by BlackBull_Markets