Get started

Fundamental Analysis

Recap: Short below LIS/Yearly Open Crude OilNYMEX:CL1! Another day and EdgeClear brings you another recap where one of the highlighted scenarios in our weekly plan for WTI crude oil, published on February 24, 2025 , played out as expected. Our Scenario 3 looked at price discovery extending the 2025 range into Q4 2024 lower distribution. Our analysis indicated an initial move lower bouncing from CVPOC 2022 support. The key was price moving below key LIS/yearly open. We did not see a bearish head and shoulders pattern develop, however, the rest of the plan played out as expected. Note the price action till Friday, 28th Feb 2025. We have been consistently providing traders with a roadmap for WTI crude oil with our thoughts and opinions on the market. WTI crude oil is a fundamental product that is affected by several factors, such as: macro, geopolitical, economic, supply, demand, and oil production dynamics. Our analysis considers these developments along with auction market theory and key indicators that may be important to watch at times. As an example, for our January 13, 2025, blog , we noted increased volume with increased open interest that drove bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. We also highlighted potential short opportunities that played out per our plan. For last week’s blog, we noted the overall trend in volume and open interest falling, indicating a potential move lower. This combined with multiple tests of our key LIS/ yearly open, strengthened our thesis for further price discovery lower. In our blog, we have highlighted two key ranges: $70 - $75 - Q1 2025 Value Area $65 - $70 - Q4 2024 Lower Distribution Focus is shifting towards oil market fundamentals i.e., supply, demand, and production outlook. While headline news may drive short-term and intraday volatility, investors and market participant’s focus will shift towards oil market fundamentals. On March 3rd, 2025, OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision from December 5, 2024, to proceed with gradual and flexible return of 2.2 mbpd voluntary cuts, starting April 1, 2025. It provided a detailed table along with a cautious approach should this decision require any amendments. In our analysis, while trade war and tariff tantrum create uncertainty around demand outlook, any news providing clarity on tariffs will be considered net positive.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
BYD - What next post-earnings and the BoC's stimulus?HKEX:1211 has had a strong year in growth prospects, reporting solid earnings growth thanks to its robust EV sales and expanding footprint in international markets. The recent earnings beat highlighted an impressive increase in revenue, driven by the demand for both their electric and hybrid vehicles. But what we can notice is that the stock has only reflected this as a c.16% rise in price YTD. However, the question now is: where does BYD go from here? - More recently, the BoC's latest stimulus measures, including rate cuts and support for the real estate sector, could indirectly benefit BYD. With increased liquidity and consumer confidence, domestic demand for EV's could rise, especially if coupled with additional green energy incentives. - As for the earnings release, the markets reacted well, and with this new-found optimism in the markets, with both the SEE Composite Index SSE:000001 and the Hang Seng Index TVC:HSI up 5.78% and 9.28% in the past 5 days, is this the turn-around for China as a whole?
HKEX:1211Long
by FytaLO
1
JP225/NIKKEI "JAPAN 225" Indices CFD Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the JP225/NIKKEI "JAPAN 225" Indices CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (37800) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 38500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 36500 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: JP225/NIKKEI "JAPAN 225" Indices CFD Market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend., driven by several key factors. ➜Fundamental Analysis 1. Economic Indicators: Japan's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, driven by domestic demand and exports. 2. Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance, with negative interest rates and quantitative easing. 3. Corporate Earnings: Japanese corporate earnings have been improving, driven by strong export growth and domestic demand. ➜➜Macroeconomic Factors 1. Inflation: Japan's inflation rate remains low, at around 0.5%. 2. Interest Rates: The BOJ's negative interest rate policy has helped to keep borrowing costs low. 3. GDP Growth: Japan's GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2023. ➜➜COT Data 1. Non-Commercial Traders: These traders hold a net long position in JP225 futures, with 52.3% of open interest. 2. Commercial Traders: Commercial traders hold a net short position in JP225 futures, with 47.7% of open interest. ➜➜Market Sentiment Analysis 1. Bullish Sentiment: 53.2% of investors are bullish on JP225. 2. Bearish Sentiment: 46.8% of investors are bearish on JP225. ➜➜Positioning Analysis 1. Long Positions: 56.1% of investors are holding long positions in JP225. 2. Short Positions: 43.9% of investors are holding short positions in JP225. ➜➜Quantitative Analysis 1. Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is at 55.6, indicating a neutral market sentiment. ➜➜Intermarket Analysis 1. Correlation with Other Markets: JP225 has a positive correlation with other Asian markets, such as the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite. 2. Commodity Prices: JP225 has a positive correlation with commodity prices, such as copper and oil. ➜➜News and Events Analysis 1. BOJ Meetings: The BOJ's monetary policy decisions can impact JP225. 2. Japanese Elections: Japanese elections can impact JP225, depending on the outcome. ➜➜Next Trend Move Based on the analysis, the next trend move for JP225 is likely to be bullish, with a potential target of 40,500. ➜➜Future Prediction Based on the analysis, the future prediction for JP225 is bullish, with a potential target of 42,500 in the upcoming months. ➜➜Overall Summary Outlook JP225 is expected to remain in a bullish trend, driven by improving corporate earnings, a moderate economic growth outlook, and accommodative monetary policy. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market volatility and economic uncertainties. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
ICMARKETS:JP225Short
by Thief_Trader
NZD/JPY Buy Setup: Potential Reversal Near Key SupportNZDJPY - Buy Setup Technical: The overall trend remains bearish, but the price has stalled just below the major 83.06 support level, last seen in August 2024. This could attract buying interest. On the daily chart, a bullish reversal formed on March 4, 2025, suggesting a potential short-term bottom. Fundamental: The latest Commitment of Traders Report shows increasing New Zealand Dollar long interest, while Japanese Yen interest is declining. This indicates that "Smart Money" may be accumulating NZD. Seasonal: Historically, between March 7 – April 13, NZD/JPY has performed well, producing positive returns 61.1% of the time, with an average gain of 1.47% over the past 36 years. Setup: Entry: 84.43 – 83.97 Stop Loss: 82.83 (below the 2024 low at 83.06) Target: 87.80 (50% retracement) Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Signal_Centre
EURAUD UpdateEURAUD Long Position Update On February 23, 2025, I initiated a long position on EUR/AUD at an entry price of 1.64185. As of March 4, 2025, the pair is trading at 1.6919, reflecting a gain of approximately 500 pips. ECB.EUROPA.EU Key Observations: Trend Analysis: Since the entry date, EUR/AUD has exhibited a consistent upward trend, moving from 1.64185 to 1.6919. Support Levels: The pair has maintained support above the 1.6600 mark, indicating sustained buying interest. Resistance Levels: The pair is approaching the psychological resistance at 1.7000, which may present a challenge for further upward movement. I had previously shared this trade setup before these gains materialized, highlighting the importance of thorough analysis and patience in trading. Note: All trading activities involve inherent risks. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Long
by Wainainarobert
EURUSD: ST&MT View!EU has been under recession for a while now and reached the bottom. Any peace in Ukraine will be positive EU. On the other equation, the USA economy was the only economy going well up to month ago. But the recent economic data are sustainably showing weaknesses. Market has started to price in a recession. Adding to the fear of recession, Trump tariffs. So based on FA, EURUSD instead of going to parity, is showing a change of structure. I think, price has started the initial wave up.
Long
by OTM-Fadhl
ANALYSIS OF USDJPYFundamental View Earlier on Wednesday, during a news conference, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank has no immediate plans to sell its large holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He also reaffirmed that the BOJ’s monetary policy is not intended to manipulate currency rates. He however declined to comment on U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks on Monday criticizing Japan and China as intentionally weakening their currencies. For the rest of the week, the economic calendar is packed with high important events that could drive significant market movements. Later Today at 5:15PM GMT+4, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released, providing insight into private sector job growth. Meanwhile, 141k has been forecasted denoting a 42k decrease from the previous month of February. While At 6:45 PM GMT+4, the Final Services PMI is set for release, with expectations that it will remain unchanged from the previous month of February. Shortly after, the ISM Services PMI will be in focus, with a forecast of 52.5, slightly lower than the previous 52.8. On Thursday, markets will turn their attention to the U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims, a key indicator of labor market health. Finally, on Friday markets attention would be shifted to the U.S. Jobs Report for February, a crucial release that could set the tone for future Federal Reserve policy decisions. These data points have the tendency to drive markets hence causing volatilities, accompanied with potential risk and reward. Technical View The USD/JPY remains supported around the key 149 level, acting as a strong barrier. In the previous session, the pair briefly dipped to 148.09, but buyers pushed it back toward the 149 zone. A decisive break below this critical support could be triggered by a fresh market catalyst. Given the upcoming high-impact news releases in the cause of the week, if the United States dollar losses momentum further, bears could take advantage of this, hence driving the pair toward 147.36, followed by the 145 psychological level. Further downside pressure could see a move toward the 142 zone. Conversely, if the U.S. dollar strengthens, the pair could rally, with bulls targeting 151, a level where price previously faced rejection. A successful break above this resistance could open the door for a push toward 154. Breakouts beyond these levels remain possible, depending on market dynamics. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 38.24, just above the 30 oversold thresholds, suggesting there is still room for downside movement before testing overbought conditions. For now, the market remains relatively quiet, awaiting the next catalyst.
by CFI
News Impact on XAU/USD – Should You Buy or Sell?📊 News Impact on XAU/USD – Should You Buy or Sell? 🔥 Latest News Breakdown & Market Reaction 📌 Key News Headlines & Their Impact: 1️⃣ "Dollar mauled by Trump trade war; German 'bazooka' blasts bonds" (7 mins ago - Reuters) 🟢 Bullish for XAU/USD: Weak USD due to trade war → Gold demand rises as a safe-haven. 2️⃣ "Gold Futures Rise on Safe-Haven Demand Though U.S. Premium Eases" (29 mins ago - Dow Jones Newswires) 🟢 Slightly Bullish for XAU/USD: Demand is increasing, but easing U.S. premium could slow upside momentum. 3️⃣ "Gold edges up on weak US dollar, political uncertainty" (2 hours ago - Reuters) 🟢 Bullish for XAU/USD: Political uncertainty + weak USD → Safe-haven demand boosts gold prices. 📈 Market Impact: ✅ Overall Bullish Bias for XAU/USD 📌 Gold is rising due to safe-haven demand and USD weakness. 📌 However, U.S. premium easing suggests some resistance at higher levels. 📢 Trade Decision – Should You Buy or Sell? ✅ Best Trade Setup: BUY XAU/USD 📍 Entry: Buy on minor pullback at $2,915 - $2,917 🎯 Target: TP1: $2,926 TP2: $2,930 - $2,935 TP3: $2,950 ❌ Stop-Loss: Below $2,910 (Avoid stop-hunts). 🚨 Alternative Plan: If price fails at $2,920 - $2,926, watch for a short-term rejection. If breakout above $2,921 happens, BUY and ride momentum! 🔥 Final Verdict: 📌 BUY XAU/USD on dips – Bullish momentum is strong! 🚀 📌 Watch for breakout above $2,921 - $2,926 to confirm a rally. 💰 Trade smart & monitor order flow for confirmation! 📊🔥
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MAHARLIKA_FX
XAU/USDNavigating XAU/USD: Key Levels and Insights Ahead of New York Open Today, I analysed the gold (XAU/USD) market and outlined my strategy leading into the New York session. Here's a detailed breakdown of my thought process and the key levels I'm watching. Top-Down Analysis: Big Picture from H4 and Daily Charts Price Action: Gold is trading near 2,914.06, close to the upper range of recent movements. This suggests bullish momentum, but key levels require attention. 4H Order Block: A significant order block may act as a liquidity zone for potential retracement before further upside. Liquidity Zones: Previous Day High (PDH):2,920.50 Previous Day Low (PDL):2,890.30 From the daily chart, the structure aligns with a bullish bias, as it continues to form higher highs and higher lows. RSI (59.07): Indicates room for price to move higher before overbought conditions. Key Levels to Watch Resistance Levels: - 2,925.00 – A psychological round number and potential selling zone. - 2,935.00 – A recent high acting as strong resistance. Support Levels: - 2,910.00 – Immediate support level close to the current price. - 2,900.00 – Aligns with the top of the 4-hour range. - 2,890.00 – Range’s lower boundary and aligns with the PDL. Retest of the Breakout Area: A Possible Play? Gold recently broke out of a multi-week range, and a retest could be on the cards. Here’s what I’m considering: 1. Liquidity Grab: Price often retraces to breakout zones to gather liquidity before resuming its trend. 2. Support Confirmation: A successful retest turning previous resistance into support would reinforce the bullish momentum. Impact of ISM Services PMI Today (15:00 GMT) The ISM Services PMI is set to be released at 15:00 GMT, with a forecast of 52.6 compared to the previous 52.8. This event could influence XAU/USD as follows If the Actual PMI Beats the Forecast A stronger-than-expected reading may strengthen the US dollar, potentially pressuring gold lower and testing support levels like 2,900.00 or 2,890.00. If the Actual PMI Misses the Forecast: A weaker-than-expected reading might weaken the US dollar, providing a bullish catalyst for gold and supporting a move toward resistance levels like 2,925.00 or 2,935.00. Volatility Spike: Expect increased market activity around the release time, which could lead to sharp price movements in either direction. H1 Chart Analysis: Indecision Before New York Open. On the hourly chart, price is consolidating as we approach the New York session. The small-bodied candles suggest a balance between buyers and sellers, but this could change with increased volatility during the open. Breakout or Fake out: Watching for a breakout above resistance or a dip toward the 4H order block for possible liquidity grabs. Volume Spike: A surge in trading volume could validate directional moves. Final Thoughts: With the broader daily trend remaining bullish, I’m keeping an eye on the key levels and watching for clear confirmation signals as New York trading kicks off. Whether gold retraces to test support or continues its upward push, patience and proper risk management are key. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI could serve as a pivotal driver for market sentiment today.
FX:XAUUSD
by OakleyJM
Uncertainty is on the driver seat!Good day! Yesterday close finally was not bullish; last hour saved the day if I may say! Yesterday candle is the definition of uncertainty! Price closed below the key level of 20529 but above the weekly low. - Fear of recession; - Tax cuts; - Tariffs and non-tariffs; - Peace in Ukraine No surprises from Trump speech... but we will hear from him daily! Key data are coming. My bias is still Sell. This said: 1- Good news or good data will send NQ to 21232; 2- Bad news or bad data will send NQ to 19620
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by OTM-Fadhl
ZCSH LONG to $17+Loving the setup here on ZCSH and the broader potential of crypto over the next four years. The opportunity to invest at $3.70 long while managing downside risk from $3.70 to zero through Grayscale makes this a no-brainer. With ZECUSD currently hovering around $35, a return to $150+ in the next bull market is highly feasible—especially with the momentum building on the horizon. ZECUSD Chart: Don't overlook Grayscale ETFs—they consistently deliver solid 5-10x returns. Holding some ZECUSD directly in your portfolio also adds value, giving you exposure to the underlying asset. Grayscale ZCSH: www.grayscale.com
OTC:ZCSHLong
by solocapital2030
Turnaround expectedArbe Robotics Inc. – Comprehensive Market Analysis Corporate Profile Arbe Robotics Inc. is an Israeli company based in Tel Aviv that specializes in the development of high-resolution, 4D imaging radars for the automotive industry. The company prides itself on being a global leader in “perception radar” solutions, claiming that its radars are up to 100 times more detailed than any other currently available automotive radar. Its flagship product is a proprietary radar chipset featuring 48 transmit and 48 receive channels (yielding 2,304 virtual channels), which enables the creation of ultra-high-resolution “Phoenix” imaging radars (2K resolution). Arbe’s radars are designed to operate in all weather and lighting conditions, generating real-time (30 FPS) 3D/4D point clouds, and are capable of detecting small objects (such as a detached tire on the road) with minimal false alarms. The company’s business model is primarily built on B2B partnerships: Arbe supplies its radar chipset and accompanying software to Tier-1 automotive suppliers (e.g., Magna, HiRain, Weifu, Sensrad), who then integrate these systems into original equipment manufacturers’ (OEM) vehicles. In addition, Arbe is expanding into new mobility segments as its technology is modular and customizable for use in passenger cars, commercial trucks, robotaxi fleets, logistics robots, drones, and even smart city infrastructure. Arbe aims to make radar a core component of autonomous and driver-assistance systems, either alongside or as a substitute for cameras and LiDAR. Since its merger with a SPAC in October 2021, Arbe has been publicly traded on Nasdaq under the ticker ARBE – making it the world’s first publicly listed automotive imaging radar company. The company currently maintains a global presence with offices not only in Israel but also in China, Germany, and the United States to strengthen ties with local OEMs and suppliers. Financial Analysis Revenue and Profit Trends: Arbe is still in the early stages before full-scale commercial production, so its revenues remain low and its operations are predominantly financed through capital raises. In 2023, the company reported an annual revenue of only around $1.5 million, a significant decline from approximately $3.5 million in 2022. Quarterly data reflect similar trends: for example, in Q3 2023, revenue was just $0.5 million (compared to $1.3 million in Q3 of the previous year), and in Q3 2024, it further fell to only about $0.1 million. The company continues to operate at a loss – in 2023, its annual net loss reached $43.5 million, slightly up from $40.5 million in 2022. These high losses are largely due to significant investments in R&D and business development, with operating expenses far exceeding current revenues. Consequently, the gross margin turned negative in 2023, with an annual gross margin of -2.6% compared to +63.5% in 2022, reflecting the challenges of achieving economies of scale at such low volumes. Cash Flow and Capital Structure: Since Arbe is not yet profitable, its operating cash flow is negative and the company relies on capital markets for financing. Notably, Arbe carries no debt and finances its operations primarily through equity. Following its Nasdaq debut via a SPAC merger in 2021—which provided roughly $118 million in gross proceeds—most of those funds have been allocated to R&D and business operations. By the end of 2023, the company held approximately $44 million in liquid assets (with $28.6 million in cash and $15.4 million in short-term deposits), which management believes is sufficient to finance operations until the second half of 2025. However, the company is aware that further capital will be necessary to scale production. At the end of 2024, Arbe raised additional funds through a $28.75 million equity offering (a registered direct offering), and it has also signaled plans for a bond issuance on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange to support 2025 production ramp-up. The current cash burn rate is roughly $30–40 million per year, so while management is confident that recent financing will bridge the gap, additional funding may be needed if revenue growth lags behind projections. Market Position and Competitive Environment Arbe positions itself as a pioneering innovator in the automotive radar technology market, though it remains a small player in an intensely competitive and rapidly evolving sector. Traditional automotive radar systems (e.g., adaptive cruise control sensors) have been dominated by established suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, Denso, ZF, and Aptiv, which have been serving OEMs for decades. However, the market is now witnessing a revolution with the advent of imaging radars that offer much higher resolution and capabilities for autonomous driving. On this front, Arbe faces competition from both large multinational companies and emerging startups. For instance, companies like Bosch and Continental have already announced their own high-resolution radar solutions, while ZF Friedrichshafen is also developing 4D radars (including through acquisitions of startups). Additionally, Chinese technology giant Huawei has entered the race by developing a 4D imaging radar for its autonomous vehicle platforms. Moreover, several startups, such as Uhnder in the USA (developing digital radarchips) and Oculii (whose technology was later acquired by Ambarella) as well as China’s Muniu Tech (Ainstein), have been actively developing 4D radars for serial production. These competitors generally have higher current revenues and stronger financial backing than Arbe, posing a significant challenge in capturing market share. Nonetheless, Arbe’s technological advantage – demonstrated by its ultra-high resolution and proprietary chipset – may appeal to OEMs seeking the most advanced sensing solutions. Arbe has already secured partnerships with leading Tier-1 suppliers (for instance, Magna and Chinese partners like HiRain and Weifu), which gives it an indirect route into OEM networks. Currently, Arbe’s market share is still minimal since mass production is yet to begin, but broader market trends are favorable as automakers increasingly recognize the importance of advanced imaging radars. Industry forecasts estimate that the global 4D automotive radar market was valued at around $2.65 billion in 2023 and could grow at an annual rate of approximately 17.6% from 2024 to 2030, indicating robust future demand. Technological Developments and Innovation Arbe’s strength lies in its continuous innovation and its intellectual property in radar technology. Its key development is a proprietary radar chipset architecture that uniquely integrates a high-performance radar processing unit (RPU) with several custom-designed RF front-end chips. The company’s patented radar processor is capable of processing up to 3 terabits of data per second and can handle tens of thousands of detections per frame in real time. The chipset incorporates advanced radar signal processing algorithms, which transform the vast raw data into interpretable point clouds with low power consumption in real time. The resulting Arbe Phoenix radar sensor achieves an unprecedented angular resolution of 0.7–0.8° (both in azimuth and elevation), a distance resolution of approximately 7.5–60 cm, and a range of up to 350 meters – performance metrics that far exceed those of traditional automotive radars. In Q4 2023, the company announced that the production version of its radar processor – fully ready for automotive mass production – had been released, marking it as one of the most powerful dedicated radar processors available on the market. Concurrently, Arbe made its entire chipset available for production, with Tier-1 partners already integrating it into “B-sample” radar systems, and several OEMs have begun testing these systems under real-world conditions. Arbe’s technological prowess has been recognized with multiple industry awards (for example, a CES Innovation Award in 2023), underscoring its leading position in automotive sensor innovation. The company also places strong emphasis on developing advanced driver assistance (ADAS) and autonomous capabilities using its radar technology. In early 2025, Arbe announced a collaboration with NVIDIA, integrating its radar data into NVIDIA’s DRIVE AGX in-vehicle computing platform to enable AI-powered free-space mapping and advanced driver assistance functionalities. This joint demonstration, showcased at CES 2025, featured live demonstrations of Arbe’s radar capabilities: the sensor’s high-resolution point cloud data, processed by AI, provided precise mapping of available road space and object recognition—even in complex urban traffic or poor visibility conditions. The radar can track and classify several hundred objects in real time, including small or partially obscured obstacles, while mitigating multipath interference. These developments aim to transform the radar from a mere supplementary sensor into a key component of AI-driven vehicle perception. Arbe’s innovation strategy also includes a robust approach to intellectual property protection and academic collaboration. The company holds several patents covering its radar architecture and signal processing methods (including TD-MIMO-based RF front-end technology and its RPU), and in 2023 it even added world-renowned radar expert Professor Yonina Eldar to its advisory board. This focus on protecting its technological edge is crucial for maintaining a competitive advantage in an increasingly crowded market. Currently, the primary focus is on achieving automotive-grade certification for its radars and scaling up production, so that its cutting-edge sensors can enter mass production as soon as possible. Stock Price and Technical Analysis The ARBE stock has experienced significant volatility over the past few years, reflecting the company’s early-stage, high-risk profile and shifting investor sentiment. Following its merger with a SPAC in October 2021, ARBE shares initially traded around $10, rising to a historical high of approximately $14.79 in November 2021 during an early hype phase. However, in line with broader corrections in the tech and SPAC sectors, the stock price plunged, reaching around $3.41 by the end of 2022—a decline of roughly 63% on an annual basis. In 2023, the downtrend continued, despite a temporary rally early in the year that pushed the stock into the $6–7 range; by year’s end, the closing price had fallen to around $2.18, representing an annual decline of approximately 36%, even as the broader U.S. market gained about 16.7% over the same period. Throughout 2024, the stock appeared to stabilize in a low range, fluctuating between $2 and $2.5, with a 52-week low of $1.56 and a peak near $2.50. In January 2025, the stock experienced a temporary rally—sparked by the announcement of the collaboration with NVIDIA and CES presentations—leading to an approximately 12% gain in the quarter, with the price briefly approaching $4 (YTD high of around $4.00). However, this rally was not sustained; by the end of February, the stock had retraced to around $1.90, indicating that cautious sentiment still prevails among market participants. Investor Sentiment and Fundamentals: Investor sentiment toward ARBE remains mixed. The long-term technical trend appears bearish – with many short-term indicators signaling selling pressure as the stock trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. High volatility and relatively low liquidity contribute to sharp swings in ARBE’s price, making it highly sensitive to news and market sentiment. Some investors remain optimistic about the company’s technological potential, viewing ARBE as a micro-cap with significant upside if its vision comes to fruition. However, more traditional investors remain cautious due to the company’s ongoing losses and the dilutive impact of frequent equity issuances. For example, a Simply Wall St analysis indicates that while Arbe’s projected revenue growth is promising, its persistent losses and share dilution erode long-term investor confidence. Additionally, in September 2023, ARBE was removed from the S&P Global BMI index (a global micro-cap index), which exerted additional selling pressure from index-tracking funds. Technical analysts currently advise caution or a waiting stance: the stock appears to have found support around $1.5–2, but resistance remains near $4–5. These levels, established by prior trading ranges, indicate that while any breakthrough could spur renewed buying, a failure to breach these resistances might lead to further declines. Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities Arbe Robotics faces significant opportunities if it can capitalize on market growth and leverage its technological advantages. The company’s greatest potential lies in converting its development projects into concrete mass-production programs with major automotive OEMs. Encouragingly, in July 2024 Arbe announced that one of the world’s top ten automakers had selected its radar chipset for next-generation imaging radar system development, aimed at mass production. Although the OEM’s name was not disclosed for competitive reasons, the news indicated an immediate start and an accelerated market launch, suggesting that Arbe could secure large-volume contracts in the near future. Such a win would represent a major boost to revenues, as a contract with a top-tier OEM could extend across multiple vehicle segments. Similarly, several Tier-1 partners have announced plans to begin mass production using Arbe’s technology by the end of 2024 or in 2025. For instance, China’s HiRain Technologies has stated that it will commence mass production of 4D radars powered by Arbe’s chipset by late 2024, while Sensrad has received significant orders globally for its Arbe-based radar solutions. These developments indicate that by 2025, Arbe’s technology could be deployed across multiple automotive models, potentially driving exponential revenue growth. Management forecasts suggest that the real scaling-up phase may begin in 2025, transforming current modest revenues into a significantly larger revenue base. Arbe also sees growth opportunities through strategic partnerships and market expansion. The opening of its Shanghai office in 2023 has brought it closer to Chinese automakers—crucial given China’s status as the world’s largest automotive market and its eagerness to adopt new sensor technologies. In September 2023, Arbe secured a framework agreement with a Chinese specialist, Sensrad, valued at approximately €7 million to jointly serve various global customers—a deal that not only generates revenue but also deepens Arbe’s market presence in China. Additionally, Arbe is in advanced discussions with OEMs in Europe and North America. According to company communications, the targeted automakers across these regions collectively represent about 31% of the global passenger vehicle market, and growing interest in advanced imaging radars among these manufacturers bodes well for future growth. Arbe’s internal estimates suggest that for just the segment currently testing its chipset, the total addressable market could reach $7.5 billion by 2030. If Arbe secures even a portion of this market, its revenue potential could multiply several times over. Beyond the automotive sector, there are additional opportunities. Arbe’s radars can also be applied in industrial robotics, drones, ground robots, heavy machinery, and smart city sensor networks. The company has highlighted its strategic focus on diversifying into non-automotive markets in 2023, where the sales cycle may be shorter and involve fewer standardization hurdles, providing a supplementary revenue stream while automotive projects ramp up. Moreover, Arbe is actively involved in standardization and regulatory efforts—efforts that will accelerate the adoption of imaging radars in safety ratings and new car assessment programs (NCAP). Overall, the future outlook for Arbe is one of high growth potential: if its technology is successfully adopted on a mass scale in advanced driver assistance and autonomous systems, Arbe could transition from an early-stage startup into a rapidly growing supplier. The next few years will be critical; if Arbe can secure its planned OEM projects and deliver on its production ramp-up, it may achieve a breakthrough in financial performance. Conversely, delays or market shifts could necessitate further capital injections and strategic adjustments. Risks and Potential Challenges Despite the significant opportunities, Arbe faces several risks and challenges that could hinder its success: Market Demand and Adoption Risks: The automotive industry is characterized by long product cycles and slow decision-making. While the promise of imaging radars is increasingly recognized, adoption may be slower or limited than expected. If automakers delay or restrict the rollout of such sensors (for example, only integrating them in premium models), revenue growth may be delayed. Additionally, in the competitive landscape of autonomous driving technologies, the optimal mix of sensors (radar vs. LiDAR vs. cameras) remains uncertain. Should OEMs favor LiDAR or camera-only systems (as seen with Tesla), Arbe’s potential market may be negatively impacted. Competitive and Pricing Pressures: The evolving radar technology market may trigger price wars and reduced profit margins. Arbe’s unique high-resolution offering could be challenged by larger competitors who are investing heavily in developing similar solutions. Should these competitors successfully launch comparable products, Arbe might be forced to reduce prices, thereby affecting profitability. Moreover, large OEMs might prefer to stick with established suppliers, perceiving them as a “safer” choice unless Arbe can clearly demonstrate superior performance. In the Chinese market, local competitors offering cheaper solutions—even if technically inferior—could also pose a threat. Financial Risks: Arbe remains financially immature with a continuous need for capital. Although the company had approximately $44 million in liquid assets at the end of 2023, its annual cash burn of roughly $30–40 million means that this runway may only last about 1.5 years at the current spending rate. While management expects existing funds to carry the company until mid-2025, delays or failures in securing key orders might necessitate additional financing, leading to further dilution or increased debt. Recent equity raises and planned bond issuances highlight this dependency, which may increase financial uncertainty if market conditions deteriorate. Technological and Execution Risks: Despite impressive prototype performance, transitioning to mass production and achieving automotive-grade certification poses significant challenges. Arbe’s chipset must meet strict quality, reliability, and safety standards (e.g., ASIL requirements). There is a risk that unforeseen technical issues—such as higher-than-expected failure rates or manufacturing challenges at their partner’s GlobalFoundries facility—could delay production or increase costs. Additionally, coordinating development efforts across multiple regions (Israel and China) can lead to logistical and operational challenges. Geopolitical events, such as regional conflicts (which in 2023 affected up to 20% of the workforce due to reserve call-ups), could further impact project timelines. Regulatory and Legal Risks: The automotive sensor market is subject to stringent regulatory oversight. For instance, radar frequency bands (typically 77–81 GHz for automotive applications) are tightly controlled, and delays in obtaining regulatory approvals in some regions could hinder market entry. International trade tensions (e.g., between the USA and China) might also affect technology exports, given Arbe’s global operations. Furthermore, potential intellectual property disputes may arise if competitors allege infringement of proprietary technologies, or vice versa, leading to costly legal battles and operational disruptions. In summary, while Arbe Robotics presents a highly promising opportunity in the evolving landscape of automotive sensing, its risk/reward profile is extreme. Success will depend on its ability to secure mass-production contracts with major OEMs, manage competitive pressures, and effectively execute its technological roadmap. The coming years will be critical—if Arbe can convert its development projects into solid production orders, it could transition into a rapidly growing supplier. However, any delays or shifts in market dynamics might necessitate additional capital and strategic pivots, potentially diluting shareholder value. Sources: Arbe Robotics – Corporate Overview (Official Website) Arbe Robotics – Products and Technology (Official Website) Arbe Robotics – Q3 2023 Financial Report (Press Release) Arbe Robotics – Q4 and Annual Financial Report 2023 (Press Release) Macrotrends – ARBE Stock Price History Simply Wall St – Analysis on Arbe’s Recent Developments Arbe Robotics – Strategic Partnerships and Projects (Press Releases) Market Research – Global 4D Automotive Radar Industry Outlook Arbe Robotics – Collaboration with NVIDIA (CES 2025 Press Release) Arbe Robotics – Q3 2024 Financial Report (Press Release)
NASDAQ:ARBELong
by meszaros
XAUUSD 4HR Analysis | What's Next For Gold ? The gold market is currently trading within a long-term ascending bullish channel, respecting dynamic trend lines that act as both support and resistance. This market structure shows a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the overall trend remains bullish. Key Observations: Market Structure & Trend Analysis: - The price has been following a well-defined bullish trend while respecting key trendlines. - An inner bearish channel has emerged, contributing to short-term pullbacks, but the overall trend remains intact as price continues bouncing off support levels. - The all-time high (ATH) resistance area has acted as a strong supply zone, where sellers have stepped in multiple times. Volume & Corrections: - The chart highlights multiple volume-based corrections, where price pullbacks have occurred with increased selling pressure. - These corrections align with dynamic support and resistance levels, reinforcing key pivot zones. - After a significant drop into the key support/value area, buyers stepped in aggressively, leading to the latest bullish rebound. EMA & Pivot Support Levels: - The exponential moving average (EMA) trend support has played a crucial role in maintaining the bullish structure, acting as a dynamic area of interest. - Pivot points are marked, showing where price has reacted at key levels, further validating the importance of these zones. Quarters & Fibonacci Levels: - The quarters theory percentages (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) are plotted, showing price reactions at these psychological levels. - The 50% retracement level was a significant bounce area, aligning with previous demand and forming a potential higher low. - If price sustains above this mid-level, the next targets would be the ATH resistance at 75% and potentially the 100% extension into the target zone above $3,000. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Continuation: If price holds above the key support zone and successfully reclaims the ATH resistance, we could see a breakout targeting new highs around the $3,000+ target zone. 2. Rejection & Consolidation: If price struggles at the ATH resistance, a pullback to retest the 50% retracement level or lower support zones is possible before another leg up. 3. Bearish Breakdown: If price loses its key support levels, a deeper correction could unfold, pushing price back into the lower range of the channel. Final Outlook: The market remains structurally bullish, with volume-based corrections providing healthy pullbacks. As long as price respects the key EMA support, Fibonacci levels, and quarters theory zones, the probability of reaching new highs remains strong. However, resistance around the ATH zone must be closely monitored for signs of either a breakout or another rejection. What is your thoughts ? Let me know in the comments! FOREXCOM:XAUUSD VANTAGE:XAUUSD
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialKieranTrewick
National People's Congress: Boosting China's EconomyThe National People's Congress opens this week as one of the most eagerly awaited events, with the market on tenterhooks over the possibility of stimulus measures to boost economic recovery. During this meeting, Chinese leaders will discuss measures aimed at strengthening growth, controlling deflation and providing crucial support to the real estate sector. As part of these deliberations, a potential increase in public spending is on the horizon, an action that could boost various productive sectors and generate a positive ripple effect throughout the economy. In addition, boosting innovation, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence, is emerging as a key strategy. Renowned technology companies, such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and Tencent Holdings, have made remarkable progress, but the challenge is to maintain this pace in an environment of increasingly fierce global competition. Boosting domestic consumption is also a priority. The authorities seek to implement policies that not only stimulate demand, but also strengthen strategic sectors, such as the automotive and household appliances sectors. Well-known manufacturers, such as BYD, Geely and Haier, could benefit from these measures, which would translate into a virtuous circle that favors the stability and growth of the domestic market. On the other hand, the real estate sector remains one of the big question marks. There is speculation about the possible issuance of approximately 800 billion yuan in local bonds to support developers. This initiative, if it materializes, could provide needed relief to companies in the sector such as China Vanke and China Resources Land, helping to counter the uncertainty that has characterized the market in recent times. Technical Analysis Hankg Seng (Ticker AT: HKInd) Last Friday the index closed trading at new highs, partially correcting in what looks like a bullish bounce. Today's Asian session seems to have confirmed it with a bullish engulfing. The checkpoint zone (POC) is located at 17,696 points well below the area of the last impulse and support point which is located around 19,437 points. RSI at the session highs was at 81.52% and currently this overbought level has moderated to 68.22% but this does not mean that the trend has stopped but that it is looking for new highs. The next milestone to expect will be generated if the index pierces the highs of 24,071 towards 25,000 points. All in all, the National People's Congress is shaping up to be a strategic platform that could redefine China's economic course. With a focus on stimulating investment, boosting innovation and strengthening consumption, the meeting promises to lay the foundations for a new stage of growth in the Chinese economy, generating optimistic expectations both domestically and internationally. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:HKINDLong
by ActivTrades