Fundamental supportFundamentals are supporting buyers in the S&P 500 daily chart. The expectation is for this support to continue on Wednesday with a positive close.
Fundamental Analysis
6/24/25 - $SPY - punchbowl musings. moar upside into YE.6/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: pondering $SPY/M2
I'll attempt to keep this punchy.
- Moar upside into YE, but with a few bumps along the road. We're probably due for a small garden variety pullback sooner vs. later. And it should be bought, without flinching. Index options are easiest and lowest risk way to play this trend, unless u like single names like me :)
- I look at the above chart SPY/M2 (so S&P divided by M2) a lot
- The last time it grabbed my interest was earlier this yr before the market did it's lil dip, now it's grabbing my interest again since we've played out a bottom and a recovery
- I wonder... is px action going to follow '98 (door 1) or the trapdoors of '08/09 (door 2)/ '20 (door 3)/ '22 (door 4).
- I suspect it's closer to '98 (and btw had this thesis before seeing the recovery in the last two months, so it's played out)
- While any event can cause the market to reset another 20-30% from here, the problem is "we don't have this event". Clearly war (at least an escalating one, not a multi-week headline-driven one - sad as any war is) won't do it. Also the Fed is just about telling Trump to suck the long one... and even that rates might go higher, but the mkt also is either ignoring this/ or frankly- might acknowledge it and doesn't care. Also we have a consumer recession on the horizon - this is no surprise to many of us. Market still doesn't really care. So what kind of event is it?
- Well in door 2 we had a pretty gnarly set of defaults in US housing. Will this happen again? Probably not in housing, there will be pockets, yes. But these sorts of things typically don't repeat, esp with the money printer locked and loaded.
- Door 3 was a "pandemic" (quotes intended) which freaked everyone out. Well played Klaus. But doubtful that card can be re-played without also seeing the money bazooka locked and loaded.
- Door 4 was rates FINALLY seeing liftoff after over a decade. But now they're pretty restrictive. Can they get more restrictive? Sure. But will they go up another 2...3...4...%? Unlikely. Direction ultimately is probably lower *eventually*, even if there's a bit more economic pain on mainstreet.
- So door 1 is somewhat unique. The market doesn't remember that timeframe well. And it feels like tech is back in that sweetspot. Mag 7 (just use QQQ on it's IWM- small cap pair) so QQQ/IWM or even SPY/IWM (both contain similar mag 7 weightings) shows no brakes. Hard to see why I'd rather pay 15 or 20x for a small cap with mid singles growth and no margin or moat vs. say NVDA at a slight premium. You get the point. So I think we're back there.
- Does that mean we get a garden variety pullbacks here/there along the way as headlines hit? Probably. I see a lot of crazy 0dte'ing all over the place. The cheapest and probably most profitable way to play that would simply be sticking to index options, tbh. But alas, that's not a 10 or 20x ;)
- Could a consumer recession in 2H keep stonks flat or only +5-10% higher capped until we can see "beyond"? Maybe. But remember, the big leaders (most Mag 7) are B2B and AI-driven. So you can paint an earnings story (lower costs b/c of tech) even if the top-lines are challenged. Again, let's see.
- Alas people have been DM'ing me "WHY ARE YOU SHORT?"
- Simply put, I have conviction in a very few number of things right now on the long side. I do think the market will tend to see higher highs, and there's not an obvious reason why that ends, just yet. And the market needs a reason to go down, not up.
- However, a lot of ETFs I've found to short are offering me ATM exposure for 5-10x leverage for very very little premium (low IV) relative to picking and banging my head causing brain damage to keep identifying the single names. Most of these ETFs own "the same company" which all trade correlation 1... so in any garden variety pullback, they will all trade v similarly and so I'd rather just pay less for the hedge.
- Therefore I remain with high BTC exposure (vis a vis OTC:OBTC ) at nearly 50% of my book. I think this converts to ETF in the next 90 days, giving me another 10-12% pop (as it's 88-90% discount to spot). Therefore, I can pack just a 1.4% IBIT ATM short (vis a vis puts) for nearly half this exposure. If BTC runs, as I expect, but can't predict exactly (EVEN IF THE CONVERT DOESN'T HAPPEN), I lose the 1.4% but probably pick up a solid 10...15...20% on this OBTC exposure. Seems like a good hedge.
- Same thing for BUG, ROBT, UFO... IV is just low. These are all correlation 1 baskets. They let me offset my NXT and GAMB size. That's all. I'm not calling "SHORT IT ALL" but rather, if things keep running "yes" i'll make less... but I believe my long exposure OBTC/ NXT and GAMB will outrun these ETFs. And even if they are similar in px action... I'll just make less, but it will still be positive.
- Now if the market really does puke 10-15 or 20%... I'll take these shorts and just deploy across all the work on single names I like. V likely the usual suspects are the one's I've written about and I'd size these up. King among them will be BTC.
Hope that helps. I like looking at this chart. Perhaps you have one that catches your attention too... that allows us a glimpse around what inning we're in.
The TL;DR is I think we're in inning 7 of this multi-decade run. I'd guess a true top gets put in in the coming years. But unlikely this year. And I'd be surprised if we retest the Mar/ Apr lows. Dips of the 5-10% size should be bought aggressively, not feared.
Alas who knows. I don't have a crystal ball.
V
Fed speak - Not broken, not cutting “Don’t fix what isn’t broken” seems to be the Fed’s current stance. Two Fed officials made that clear over the last 24 hours.
Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr warned that tariffs could fuel inflation by lifting short-term expectations, triggering second-round effects, and making inflation more persistent.
New York Fed President John Williams echoed that view, noting that tariff-driven inflation is “likely to get stronger in the months ahead.” He also called policy “well positioned” and said the Fed needs more data before making any move.
EUR/USD has formed a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart—typically a bearish structure that warns of a potential reversal. Price action has narrowed, building two clear tops. The downside target from the wedge could potentially be 1.1066 initially, and possibly down to 1.0732 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Circle Collapse - Will COIN follow? Circle stock has been on a wild ride lately
After a meteoric rise of over 700% since its IPO on June 5, it's now facing some turbulence:
- Today, the stock dropped nearly 16%, partly due to Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest selling $110 million worth of shares.
- Analysts are also sounding caution. Compass Point initiated coverage with a $205 price target—below its current trading price—citing rising competition in the stable coin space.
- Despite the dip, some still see long-term potential. A recent Forbes analysis explored whether Circle could hit $500 per share, driven by growth in USDC reserves and infrastructure revenue.
Do you want to have glory? Do want to see Valhalla?#HODL
These next few years will could change your life.
#ETHEREUM is cheap right now.
#ETH still can do tens of X's
GOLDThe US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.29%, down about 0.03 percentage points (0.64%) from the previous day’s level around 4.32%–4.34%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 97.877, showing relative stability with minor fluctuations
Impact on Markets Today
The slight decline in the 10-year yield suggests modest easing of bond market pressure, possibly reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing fiscal concerns and expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year.
The DXY near 97.9 indicates a moderately strong dollar, though recent trends show some weakening due to fiscal worries and softer economic data.
Together, a stable-to-slightly weaker dollar and a modestly lower 10-year yield can support safe-haven assets like gold, though elevated yields still pose a headwind. But despite the dips of both the 10 year bond yield and the dollar index GOLD lost over 500pips from Asian session to Newyork session trading.
In brief: The US 10-year yield’s slight dip combined with a steady DXY reflects a market balancing inflation, fiscal concerns, and Fed policy outlook. This environment supports cautious risk-taking with safe-haven demand still relevant.
#gold #dollar
Boeing (BA, 1W) Falling Wedge + H-Projection TargetOn the weekly chart, Boeing has formed a classic falling wedge — a bullish reversal pattern that typically signals the end of a correction phase. After a sharp decline from $267.97 to $138, price action began to compress within a wedge, forming lower highs and higher lows on declining volume — a textbook setup for a breakout.
The structure remains active: a confirmed breakout above the upper wedge boundary, with a retest near $181.60 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement), would validate the pattern and trigger the next upward phase.
The projected move (H) equals the height of the previous impulse — $130.02. Adding this to the base of the wedge (~$138) yields a technical target of $268.00, aligning with the previous high and completing the structural recovery.
Technical summary:
– Multiple confirmations of wedge support
– Volume declining into the apex (bullish)
– Entry zone: breakout + retest at $181.60
– Mid-level resistance: $198.09 (0.5 Fibo)
– Final target: $267.97–$268.00 (H-projection complete)
Fundamentals:
Despite operational setbacks, Boeing remains structurally positioned for recovery as demand for commercial aircraft rebounds. Additional support could come from improving supply chains, increased defense contracts, and a more dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve heading into 2025.
A breakout above $181.60 and sustained momentum would confirm the falling wedge pattern and activate the H-measured move toward $268. This is a structurally and fundamentally supported mid-term recovery setup
AMD 1W: If Not Now — Then When?The weekly chart of AMD looks like it’s holding its breath: a well-defined falling wedge, double bottom support, and price pressing right against long-term trendline resistance. Everything’s in place — now it just needs to break and run, preferably without tripping over nearby Fibonacci levels.
The stock is trading around $114 and attempting to hold above the 50-week MA. Just ahead is the 200-week MA (~131) — not only a technical hurdle but also a psychological pivot. A move above it could reignite talk of $150+ targets.
The wedge has been narrowing since late 2024. After repeated bounces off support, price has returned to the top of the pattern. A confirmed weekly close above the wedge could trigger a real breakout. Without that — it risks yet another scripted pullback.
Key Fibonacci levels:
0.618 — $133.60
0.5 — $151.42
0.382 — $169.25
0.236 — $191.30
0.0 — $226.95 (all-time high)
The roadmap looks clean — but only if volume follows through. There are signs of quiet accumulation at the bottom, but no explosive buying just yet.
Fundamentals:
AMD delivered solid Q1 results: revenue is growing, EPS beat expectations, and margins are holding. More importantly, the company launched a new $6 billion stock buyback program — showing clear internal confidence in its long-term trajectory.
There’s also a strategic AI partnership underway with a Middle Eastern tech group. This move positions AMD to challenge not just for GPU market share, but for future AI infrastructure dominance — long game stuff.
Analyst sentiment has turned bullish again, with new price targets in the $130–150 range. All of this makes the current chart structure more than just technical noise — it’s backed by strong tailwinds.
Micro-Cap Idea22M market cap - cashflow and EBITDA positive company. Breakout on the downward linear trend line
Extra infoGeopolitical Gold Risk: EU Alarmed Over U.S. Custodianship
Rising geopolitical volatility and former President Trump’s escalating rhetoric against the U.S. Federal Reserve have sparked renewed European concerns over national gold reserves stored in the U.S., especially in Germany and Italy. Both nations hold the second and third-largest gold reserves globally (3,352 and 2,452 tonnes respectively), with a significant portion—over $245 billion in total—custodied at the New York Fed.
Lawmakers and public advocacy groups across the political spectrum in both countries are urging repatriation of gold to domestic vaults, citing Trump’s erratic policy stances and potential interference with central bank independence. The Bundesbank continues to defend New York's strategic value, while Italy remains silent. A growing number of central banks globally are reportedly shifting or planning to shift gold home as a precautionary move.
Japan’s Political Shifts: LDP Faces Voter Blowback Over Inflation
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a historic electoral defeat in Tokyo’s local assembly elections, signaling growing voter discontent over surging food prices and stagnant wages. The LDP lost 8 of its 30 seats, surrendering its top position to Governor Yuriko Koike’s regional party, Tomin First.
With upper house elections on July 20, this loss raises risks of further political fragmentation. The populist right-wing Sanseito party gained seats for the first time, showcasing a shift toward fringe movements. PM Ishiba’s government also faces diplomatic and economic pressure as Trump threatens tariffs on Japanese imports. Tokyo’s results act as a warning sign that inflation and trade anxieties are materially influencing voter behavior.
U.S.-Korea Defence Diplomacy: Rolls-Royce Eyes GE Replacement
As South Korea reassesses its KF-21 fighter jet engine partner, UK officials are lobbying aggressively for Rolls-Royce to replace GE Aerospace, citing U.S. export restrictions that limit Seoul’s ability to sell jets internationally. The KF-21’s export prospects to Indonesia and the UAE are reportedly at risk due to American national security clauses.
Rolls-Royce proposes a joint development model to de-risk the engine program. However, entrenched U.S.–Korea defense ties, including Hanwha’s integration with U.S. military platforms, complicate this pivot. The U.K. seeks not only defense industrial collaboration but strategic geopolitical alignment with Seoul as a hedge against U.S. protectionism.
Energy Sector on Edge: Majors Withdraw Staff Amid Escalation Risks
European energy giants BP, TotalEnergies, and Eni have begun evacuating foreign staff from Iraqi fields, citing risk of Iranian retaliation after U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities. Operations remain intact, but local authorities confirm precautionary withdrawals, with Total reportedly pulling 60% of its expats.
Rumaila, Zubair, and southern Iraqi fields are proximate to Iranian territory and vulnerable to missile or proxy militia attacks. Analysts caution that Iran could exploit asymmetric tactics via regional militias, threatening key infrastructure without directly engaging U.S. forces. Shell, also present via Basra Gas, declined comment. The withdrawal underscores the fragile security balance as military posturing continues to escalate.
Oil Markets Volatile: Trump Demands Surge in U.S. Production
Following Brent crude’s spike to $81.40 and a subsequent intraday fall to $76.90, President Trump urged the Department of Energy to “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!” to stabilize prices. His public messaging emphasizes a fear that elevated oil costs play into enemy strategies, pressuring energy firms and OPEC+ to expand output.
So far, Middle East supply has not been disrupted, and no damage to the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 21 million barrels/day—has been recorded. However, analysts from S&P, SEB, and RBC warn of continued upside risk if Iran or its proxies target tankers, refineries, or pipelines. Several tankers have already changed course or anchored to avoid chokepoints, signaling preemptive market caution.
Financial Markets and Central Bank Tensions
Trump’s repeated interventions into Fed policy, combined with tariff-driven inflation concerns, have created a highly politicized environment for monetary policy. He has publicly demanded immediate rate cuts to 1–2%, pressuring Powell amid signs of internal division among Fed governors.
With inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target but geopolitical risks rising, Powell must testify to Congress this week and defend the institution's independence. A shift in Fed leadership post-2026 under a Trump administration may fundamentally reshape U.S. monetary credibility if dovish, politically loyal appointees take over.
European Fixed Income Competition: Vanguard Cuts Fees
As competition heats up in Europe’s bond ETF market, Vanguard has slashed fees on 7 of its 15 European fixed income ETFs. The changes reduce average expense ratios to 0.11%, part of a broader push to gain share from leaders like BlackRock and State Street.
This move aligns with Vanguard’s U.S. fee overhaul earlier this year, aimed at democratizing access to fixed income. European investors increasingly demand lower-cost bond solutions as the bond market now exceeds equities in size, yet remains more opaque and less efficient. The fee cut should help catalyze inflows from cost-sensit
6/24/25 - $pltr - Porti update6/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PLTR
Porti update
- decided to do it on this "heads i win tails you lose" stonk
- good luck to the believers.
portfolio - i think mkt is cooked but could melt up. so i dug in my heels. 3 names i like. and shorts that r cheap and silly expensive. let's see who wins.
i'm gross ~180%, net ZERO
longs
OBTC at 45%
NXT '27 leaps 15-20%
GAMB at 30%
(sold HIMS for now, forgive me ;)
shorts
IBIT (hedge to OBTC convert)
BUG
QUBT
ROBT
UFO
ASTS
PLTR
CVNA
let's see. careful out there. tape looks low IQ.
V
Australian dollar jumps on Israel-Iran cease fireThe Australian dollar is up sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.70% on the day.
Investors' risk appetite is higher today after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in their 12-day war. The markets have reacted favorably to lower oil prices as fears that Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz, which would have disrupted global oil supplies, have diminished. Risk appetite has returned and risk currencies like the Australian dollar have posted strong gains today.
The Israel-Iran war has triggered sharp swings in oil prices and there are fears of an oil price shock if the fragile ceasefire does not hold. An oil price shock would send petrol prices higher and boost inflation, complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia's plans to lower interest rates.
Australia CPI expected to ease to 2.3%
Australia releases the May inflation report early on Wednesday. Headline CPI has been stuck at 2.4% for three consecutive months, within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target of 2-3% and its lowest level since Nov. 2024. The market estimate for May stands at 2.3%. Trimmed Mean CPI, a key core inflation indication, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in April.
The Reserve Bank will be keeping a close eye on the inflation report, with the central bank making a rate announcement on July 8. The RBA trimmed rates by a quarter-point in May and has shifted to a more dovish stance - the Board discussed a jumbo half-point cut at the May meeting.
Fred Chair Powell appears before Congress today and Wednesday and is likely to defend the Fed's wait-and-see stance. The Fed is concerned about President Trump's tariffs and the Israel-Iran war threatens stability in the Middle East, hardly the recipe for further rate cuts. Still, there appears to be some dissent within the Fed, as two members, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have suggested that the Fed could lower rates as early as September.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6490. Above, there is resistance at 0.6522
There is support at 0.6400 and 0.6342
GOLD Ceasefire Violations Alleged:
Despite the ceasefire, both sides have accused each other of violations:
Israel reportedly struck a radar site north of Tehran just hours after the ceasefire was due to take effect, but refrained from further attacks following a direct call between Trump and Netanyahu.
Iranian missiles were fired toward Israel after the ceasefire announcement, but it is unclear if these were intentional breaches or operational delays.
GOLD safe haven appeal resumes buying in the face of war and geopolitical tension in middle east
Bitcoin are heading to 114k or 92k A quick little analysis on BTC, we can either push up higher to 114k levels breaking new highs is a must for price action to validate bill swing. However if we break a couple lows be prepared for 92k run down
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
Stellantis | STLA | Long at $9.59Stellantis NYSE:STLA is the maker of the auto brands Fiat, Peugeot, Jeep, Citroën, Opel/Vauxhall, Ram Trucks, Dodge, Chrysler, Alfa Romeo, Maserati, DS Automobiles, Lancia, Abarth, and Vauxhall. The stock has fallen sharply due to a 70% profit drop in 2024, weak U.S. sales, high inventory, and tariff uncertainties. The turnaround for NYSE:STLA beyond 2025 hinges on new CEO Antonio Filosa’s focus on U.S. market recovery, new product launches (e.g., Ram 1500 Ramcharger, Jeep hybrids), pricing adjustments, aggressive marketing, $5B U.S. manufacturing investment, and mending dealer relations. The stock is trading at a P/E of 5.1x, debt-to-equity of 0.8x (not bad), a book value of $29 (undervalued), a tangible book value of $9.82, and earnings and revenue are forecasted to grow into 2028. Economic weakening and tariffs may hamper these predictions, but the new CEO and future interest rate drops may get this stock rolling again.
However, if NYSE:STLA shows zero sign of near-term recovery or other fundamental issues arise, I truly think this stock could enter the high $5-$6 range before a true reversal begins.
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price is currently with my selected "crash" simple moving average. This area often signifies a near-term bottom, but like mentioned above, watchout out for the "major crash" simple moving average area currently between $5.83 and $7.09.
Regardless of bottom predictions, NYSE:STLA is in a personal buy zone at $9.59 with a greater position likely if it enters my "major crash" zone, as mentioned above.
Targets into 2027:
$12 (+25.1%)
$14 (+46.0%)
Report - June 24, 2025Geopolitical Flashpoint: U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict Reaches Temporary Pause
After weeks of escalating military engagement, President Trump has declared a phased cease-fire between Iran and Israel, effective June 25. While Israel has not officially confirmed, both sides reportedly agreed to halt attacks if met with mutual restraint. Iran launched 14 missiles toward Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of its nuclear sites; 13 were intercepted with no casualties. This symbolic attack was designed as a “face-saving” gesture, avoiding a broader conflict or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint.
Market Impact:
Oil dropped sharply (WTI -7.2%, Brent -6.8%) as war premium unwound.
Equities rallied (S&P 500 +1%, Dow +0.9%) on relief from escalation.
Risk-off unwound modestly with global equities rising in Asia (Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +1.8%).
Strategic Implications:
A durable cease-fire is far from guaranteed. Israel may not comply long-term.
Iran’s restraint signals desire for diplomatic off-ramp, supported by Qatari mediation.
U.S. avoided further retaliation, citing the limited scope of Iran’s action as justification.
Trump’s Pressure on the Fed and the ‘Powell Trap’
President Trump has intensified attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding sharp rate cuts (targeting 1–2%). With inflation still near 2.6% Core PCE and tariffs starting to filter through consumer prices, the Fed risks its credibility if it yields to political pressure.
Fed Dynamics:
Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller (Trump appointees) support July cuts due to labor concerns.
Powell testifies before Congress this week, expected to defend central bank independence.
Market Reaction:
10-Year yield fell to 4.32%, 2-Year to 3.83%.
FedWatch: 22.7% chance of July cut, up from 14.5% pre-Iran strike.
Strategic Outlook:
Fed faces a no-win scenario: cut and risk inflation, or hold and face political firestorm.
Political pressure ahead of Powell’s February 2026 term expiry is rising—Trump may be shaping a post-Powell Fed regime.
U.S. Housing Market Update: Rising Inventory, Stalled Buyers
May existing-home sales rose +0.8% MoM (vs. -1.3% est.) but remain near record lows (4.03M annualized). Inventory rose +6.2% MoM, +20.3% YoY, yet affordability remains a major obstacle.
Median price: $422,800 (near record), +1.3% YoY.
Mortgage rates >6.5%, limiting buyer participation.
Price cuts surged (1 in 4 listings), showing seller capitulation.
Homes are sitting longer (27 days on market vs. 24 a year ago).
Implications:
Affordability gap persists: $100k income now affords just 37% of listings vs. 65% in 2018.
Selective regional strength: Midwest/Northeast stronger than Sunbelt/Southwest.
Energy Sector: Fragile but Stabilized for Now
Iran’s deliberate avoidance of energy infrastructure has led to a collapse in crude prices post-spike. However, risks remain:
Strait of Hormuz still vulnerable; closure would cut ~20% of global oil supply.
WTI pulled back to $75.67, Brent at $78.89—still ~10% higher than pre-June levels.
Trump publicly pressuring oil markets to keep prices low, signaling political discomfort with oil shocks during re-election year.
Energy Equities:
Exxon -2.6%, Halliburton -6.8% — oil-linked stocks lagged.
European oil names may rally if prices stay elevated: 7.8% EPS boost with +20% oil (Panmure).
APT around a historical support DO or DIEAPT / USDT
Price dropped hard to retest the massive historical support again
This multi years support ( 3$-4$) zone always shows great buying pressures thats why it catch our attention!
This support also can play as DO or DIE borderline between bulls and bears
The buyers must defend this area otherwise it will die and make new lows
Keep an eye on it
SoFi Technologies (SOFI, 1D)On the daily chart, SoFi has broken out of its descending trendline, confirmed the breakout with a clean retest of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $12.33, and is now building upward momentum from this demand zone. This “buy zone” is acting as a launchpad for a potential mid-term move toward higher resistance levels.
Key Fibonacci-based upside targets:
– $13.48 (0.5 retracement)
– $14.64 (0.382 retracement)
– $16.07 (0.236 retracement) — within the defined target zone
– Extended target: $18.37 (1.0 Fibonacci projection)
Technical structure highlights:
– Breakout of multi-month downtrend + successful retest
– Price now trading above key EMAs (50/100/200)
– Volume expansion on bullish candles confirms demand
– Daily momentum favors further continuation toward the $14–$16 zone
– Premium supply zone above $16 may slow initial momentum but offers long-term potential toward $18+
Fundamental context:
SoFi is evolving as a vertically integrated fintech platform with strong brand recognition and growing user engagement across banking, investing, and lending services. As the company narrows losses and strengthens recurring revenue, investor interest in SOFI is growing — particularly as market appetite returns for high-quality fintech with path-to-profitability models.
The technical breakout is confirmed. As long as price remains above the $12.33–$12.50 buy zone, the bullish scenario remains valid with targets toward $14.64 and $16.07. A breakout above $16 would activate the full expansion toward $18.37 in the mid-term.
Buying the Dip or Catching a Knife? My Gold Setup Explained.Entered a long position on XAU/USD from the 1H demand zone following sharp intraday selling into a key support level. With gold hovering near $3,300 and a significant testimony from Fed Chair Powell on deck, the setup aligns with both technical rebound potential and fundamental uncertainty that could fuel upside.
The goal here is to play the liquidity vacuum left after aggressive positioning was cleared, with tight invalidation and asymmetric reward.
Technicals:
• Entry aligned with prior price inefficiency and confluence of multiple demand zones
• 1H structure shows clear deviation below the range with immediate buy-side response
• EMA channel flattening, indicating potential compression ahead of expansion
• First target: $3,352
• Risk-managed with defined stop-loss below $3,260
Execution Note: This is not a “hold forever” trade. It’s an opportunistic reaction to unwind + sentiment imbalance.
Fundamentals
• Gold saw a 25% surge in 2024 due to safe-haven demand and dovish policy, but enters 2025 under pressure from:
▫️ A strong USD
▫️ Higher cost of carry
▫️ Speculators taking profit
• Fed policy remains the core variable:
▫️ A hawkish tone from Powell could weigh on price
▫️ Rate cuts would likely revive bullish momentum
• Central bank demand remains supportive
• Geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran) could trigger safe-haven bids again.
Bearish headwinds:
• Waning bullish momentum per RSI divergence
• Reduced rate cut expectations post-election
• Powell’s testimony could revive volatility either way.
This is a short-term tactical long, not a macro bet. With sentiment temporarily overextended and key support defended intraday, this is a high R/R window to exploit Powell-related volatility.
Let’s see how price reacts into $3,350+. Any sustained strength there would open room toward $3,400, while failure would confirm a retest of $3,260s.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Diageo | DEO | Long at $101.15Diego NYSE:DEO is the owner of alcohol brands such as Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Guinness, Tanqueray, Don Julio, Cîroc, and Captain Morgan. The stock has fallen significantly since 2021 due to several factors, such as: post-COVID recovery slowdown; retail/travel disruptions hurting high-margin segments; inflationary pressures raising costs for materials like glass and agave, squeezing margins; consumer downtrading to cheaper alternatives; and macroeconomic headwinds. While tariffs may prolong overall recovery, I do not think it's the end for this company by any means.
Factors likely to drive NYSE:DEO stock higher include:
Interest Rate Cuts : Expected U.S. rate cuts in 2025 could boost consumer confidence and spending, benefiting premium brands. Lower rates may also reduce debt costs, easing pressure on its debt load.
Productivity Initiatives : NYSE:DEO $2B savings program (2025-2027) aims to improve efficiency, margins, and cash flow, potentially restoring investor confidence.
Undervaluation : Trading at 17.5x forward earnings (below historical 21x), the stock may attract value investors.
From a technical analysis perspective, NYSE:DEO has been riding my "crash" simple moving average zone. While the momentum has a strong downtrend, entry into this "crash" zone typically only happens a few times before a trend reversal. But there is a good probability, that my "major crash" zone (currently in the $80s) is possible before a true reversal. Regardless, without a crystal ball, I am starting to form a position and plan to add more if the "major crash" happens with this stock.
Thus, at $101.15, NYSE:DEO is in a personal buy zone with the noted potential for a drop into the $80s due to projected earnings revisions, etc.
Targets into 2027:
$120.00 (+18.6%)
$140.00 (+38.4%)
Dark moment for prices. Will it fall even lower?Information summary:
Due to the ceasefire in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite has rebounded, demand for safe-haven assets has declined, and gold prices have plummeted. As an interest-free asset, gold prices are under pressure against the backdrop of declining risk aversion, but there is still buying support at low levels.
Investors are currently focusing on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee. Powell has been cautious about whether to cut interest rates in the near future.
Market analysis:
The current market selling sentiment has increased significantly, and for gold, falling has become the only path. It seems that the market has lost hope in gold, and the current gold price has fallen to around 3295, then rebounded slightly, and is currently fluctuating around 3313. The break of 3300 declares that gold still has further room to fall, and from the trend point of view, it is likely to continue to fall.
The current trend shows that the important support is around 3285. It is possible that it will fall directly to the current position. The Fed is still speaking, and it is unpredictable whether it will cause drastic fluctuations in gold in the future. However, from today's trend, shorting is the best solution at present, and the upper resistance position is in the range of 3315-3325.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3320, stop loss 3330, profit range 3290-3285.
Gold prices rose as dollar data was not good
📌 Gold information:
Gold prices plunged on Tuesday as a ceasefire was declared in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite rebounded, and demand for safe-haven assets declined. The ceasefire news pushed global stocks higher, while oil prices fell to a two-week low as concerns about supply disruptions eased. The plunge in crude oil prices also further suppressed gold's inflation hedging appeal. As an interest-free asset, gold prices are under pressure against the backdrop of waning risk aversion, but there is still buying support at low levels.
Investors are currently focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's appearance at a House Financial Services Committee hearing. Powell has been cautious on whether to cut interest rates in the near future.
📊Comment Analysis
The current market selling sentiment has increased significantly, and for gold, falling seems to be the only way to go. Today, whether you look at rebound short or low long, basically you will not have a chance, that is, falling, it seems that the market has lost hope in gold, and the current gold has fallen to 3295, and the break of 3300 declares that gold has further room to fall. From the trend point of view, it is likely to fall now!
The further strong support on the current trend line is around 3274, and it is not ruled out that it will fall directly to the current position. At present, the Federal Reserve is still speaking, and whether it will cause drastic fluctuations in gold in the future is still unpredictable, but from today's trend, shorting is already the best solution at present, and the upper resistance can first look at 3330!
💰Strategy Package
Gold: Rebound 3325-3335 short, stop loss 3345, target 3290-3300!
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the lot size that matches your funds
Trade Idea: ETN (Eaton Corporation) - Breakout OpportunityTicker: ETN (NYSE) | Sector: Industrial/Energy Infrastructure
📈 Trade Setup
Entry: $340.5 (Current price near breakout level)
Stop Loss: $315 (-7.5% from entry)
Take Profit: $391.68 (+15% upside)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔍 Technical Analysis
Trend & Momentum:
Daily Chart: Strong uptrend (Higher highs & higher lows).
RSI (14): 62 (Bullish but not overbought).
MACD: Bullish crossover above signal line.
Key Levels:
Support: $315 (200-day SMA + previous resistance turned support).
Resistance: $350 (Psychological level), then $391.68 (ATH projection).
Volume: Rising on upward moves (bullish confirmation).
💡 Fundamental Catalyst
Sector Tailwinds:
Global energy infrastructure spending surge (grid modernization, data centers).
ETN’s exposure to electrification and renewable energy plays.
Valuation:
P/E: 33.5 (slightly rich but justified by growth).
Strong free cash flow (+12% YoY).
🎯 Why This Trade?
Breakout Play: ETN is testing a multi-week consolidation. A close above $345 confirms bullish momentum.
Sector Strength: Industrials outperforming S&P 500 YTD.
Low Relative Volatility: ATR of ~$8 suggests controlled risk.
⚡ Trade Management
Add-on: Consider adding at $355 if volume supports the breakout.
Adjust SL: Move to breakeven at $350 if price reaches $365.
Watchlist: Monitor XLI (Industrial ETF) for sector confirmation.
⚠️ Risks
Market Pullback: Broad selloff could drag industrials.
Earnings Volatility: Next report due in ~3 weeks.
📉 Chart Note:
"ETN is poised for a measured move to ATHs if $345 breaks. SL below $315 keeps risk defined."
✅ Verdict: High-conviction swing trade with clear technical structure.
#ETN #Breakout #IndustrialStocks #SwingTrading
(Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research. Past performance ≠ future results.)
