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What is Inflation Climate and Weather? Copper is NextThe key driver of most markets — and a major influence on their trends — is inflation. Once we understand the difference between short-term inflation weather and long-term inflation climate, we can better recognize where risk meets opportunity. On this half yearly chart. We can see as the close on 30th June, copper settled firmly, closed above its $4.44 resistance that has been tested for years. This study indicates that copper could be at the beginning of an uptrend. I will be looking out for buying-on-dips opportunities whenever they arise. Mirco Copper Futures Ticker: MHG Minimum fluctuation: 0.0005 per pound = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy:Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy: Between Price Stability and Currency Tension The Eurozone’s latest data points to a relatively stable and controlled macroeconomic environment, with a key milestone just reached: 📊 June inflation hit 2.0%, aligning precisely with the ECB’s long-term target. Growth remains moderate but positive, and unemployment is stable. From a classical policy perspective, this setup would typically justify further interest rate cuts to stimulate demand and support economic expansion. But there’s a growing complication: The euro has strengthened significantly in recent weeks, driven not just by economic fundamentals but also by capital inflows and a weakening U.S. dollar. A stronger euro, while often seen as a sign of investor confidence, can hurt exports, reduce competitiveness, and dampen inflation further — potentially becoming a drag on recovery. As a result, the ECB finds itself in a policy dilemma: Cutting rates could stimulate growth, but risk driving the euro even higher. Slowing down or pausing rate cuts could stabilize the currency, but may stall economic momentum. --- 🔁 Reflexivity at Work This dynamic highlights George Soros' theory of reflexivity — where market perceptions shape fundamentals, and those fundamentals in turn reshape perceptions. > “Market prices are always distorted by prevailing biases.” — George Soros The current rally in the euro may not reflect fundamentals alone. If the move exceeds investor expectations, it could trigger emotional reactions, abrupt capital shifts, or even corrections — despite a solid economic base. --- ⚠️ Key Takeaways June inflation at 2.0% gives ECB a clean slate to act — but with caution. Currency appreciation can delay or distort the impact of monetary easing. Market reflexivity may accelerate reactions beyond what data alone would justify. Policy credibility now hinges not just on data, but on timing and communication. --- In today’s market, price and psychology move together. Stability on paper doesn't always mean stability in execution.
by mehrshad31
Speculative long: ACOGAlpha Cognition ACOG Speculative long, microcap. Story: New Alzheimer drug with promising prospects. New product is since April available. Fundamental data: not really available. Last quarter small revenue from the new product. But enough money after IPO to bring the new drug into the market. Technical: Multi week Breakout + consolidation on lower volume. Nice chart pattern. Near IPO price. Near all time high. Only succesful if prodct is running. Can be volatile until next earning releas with (hopefully) good news. Entry : ~9 $ Target: No limit ;-) but I excpect at least a double at 18. Risk in high volatile price / breakdown to old levels..
NASDAQ:ACOGLong
by ReaZedd
WTI on high time frame "Hello traders, focusing on WTI crude oil, the price surged to $78 but sharply retreated to the $65 zone. Over the last five days, the price has consolidated. I believe that the signals from the recent 4-hour candle suggest a potential move towards higher prices, with the next target possibly being around $72. I will be monitoring the price action around $72 closely for a potential rejection or continuation towards even higher prices." If you need further assistance or have additional insights to share, feel free to let me know.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by somayehbasiri
Nas100With speculation about no rate cuts we can expect to see Nas100 plumet with Fed Powells upcoming speech. If we look at the technical side we can see that Nas has been somewhat consolidating over the past 2 days creating a fair amount of Sell side liquidity. We can expect Powell to speak about rat cuts today in his upcoming speech and we will use this to our advantage waiting for early buyers to push up the market triggering our setup. We can look for a plus minus 100 pip move before Nas turns around, we will however closely monitor the movement of Nas now until the speech so that we can execute a trade with the least amount of risk. Remember to like and subscribe for more A+ setups.
VANTAGE:NAS100Short
by JamaicanLNS
USD/CHF Exchange Rate Falls to Multi-Year LowUSD/CHF Exchange Rate Falls to Multi-Year Low According to the chart, the USD/CHF exchange rate has settled below the key psychological level of 0.8000. The rate hasn’t been this low since the financial crisis of 2008. On one hand, the drop in USD/CHF is driven by weakness in the US dollar. The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, largely due to the conflicting trade policies pursued by the Trump administration. On the other hand, geopolitical instability has increased the appeal of the Swiss franc as a so-called safe-haven asset. Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart Since mid-May, price fluctuations have formed a downward channel (marked in red), and by the end of June the rate had stabilised around the psychological threshold of 0.8000 (indicated by an arrow) — right at the median of the channel. However, this balance between supply and demand proved temporary, tipping in favour of sellers. As a result, we now see a decline in USD/CHF along a steep trajectory (marked in black), potentially targeting the lower boundary of the red channel — which suggests a possible move down to 0.7800 USD per franc. Along this path, support may come from the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (0.7875); note how the 0.8055 level previously acted as support (marked with a blue arrow). The RSI indicator confirms strong selling pressure — but will the bearish trend continue? Much will depend on the broader fundamental context. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the sharp strengthening of the franc against the dollar is causing growing concern at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), as an overly strong franc harms Swiss exporters. This suggests that the current market sentiment could shift dramatically if the SNB issues any relevant statements. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Bitcoin setup: bearish for now but watch Trump’s crypto deadlineBitcoin is sliding, and the technicals point lower with clear RSI divergence and a possible descending triangle. But this could all change fast. Trump’s crypto working group is set to propose major changes by 23 July. If the news points to deregulation or a return of ICOs, Bitcoin could explode higher. In this video, we break down the chart, the risks, and the potential trigger that could flip sentiment overnight. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSD
by ThinkMarkets
NVIDIA to $228If Nvidia were truly done for, why is it impossible to find their latest 5000 series GPUs? Even if someone wanted to buy one, they simply can't. The reason lies in Nvidia's commitment to fulfilling the soaring demand from AI data centers, which has left them unable to produce enough H100 and H200 models. This situation also allows Nvidia to increase their profit margins significantly, capitalizing on the disparity between demand and the media frenzy surrounding them. DeepSeek serves as a prime example of how out of touch mainstream media can be. All DeepSeek did was replicate Chat GPT. Training models requires substantial computing power. The panic surrounding Nvidia and other semiconductor companies is quite amusing; the demand for computing power is skyrocketing! The gap between the reality of the AI mega-trend and the narrow focus of mainstream media is staggering! It's astonishingly out of touch! Just as out of touch as Cramer was when he declared META was done at $100, or when he thought Chat GPT would obliterate Google at $88. Stock prices fluctuate between being overvalued and undervalued. While we have metrics like EGF and PE ratios to assess valuation, indicating that Nvidia is currently inexpensive, this doesn't guarantee it won't drop further. However, it is generally wiser to buy stocks when they are cheap rather than when they are costly. The greater the deviation from the high then the greater the BUYING OPPORTUNITY being presented for the very best leading companies. The key takeaway is that the deeper Nvidia falls during its corrections, the more advantageous it could be. Those who are experiencing anxiety during these declines may find themselves selling at a loss, or for a marginal profit possibly around previous highs, while the stock has the potential to rise to $228 and beyond. The potential for growth is significant; the $228 Fibonacci extension may not represent the peak. Attempting to predict a top for Nvidia could be misguided. Once it reaches $228, Nvidia might maintain a valuation similar to its current $130 level.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by BallaJi
3
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 1, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks 01.07 16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks 01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD is trading in negative territory near 1.1790 in the early European session on Tuesday. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) amid growing budget concerns and uncertainty surrounding trade deals. Four people familiar with the negotiations said US President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to phase in deals with the most involved countries as they rush to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Uncertainty over trade agreements continued to weigh on sentiment and sell the US dollar. Investors are concerned about the US Senate's attempts to pass Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, which faces intra-party disagreement over a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt. Fiscal concerns have dampened optimism and contributed to the decline in the US dollar. This, in turn, serves as a tailwind for the major pair. German inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased to 2.0% y/y in June from 2.1% in the previous reading. The figure was below expectations of 2.2%. On a month-on-month basis, HICP rose 0.1% in June vs. 0.2% previously, below the market consensus forecast of 0.3%. Softer-than-expected German inflation data may limit near-term growth. Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1725, TP 1.1880
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
XAUUSD Analysis – 01/07: Gold Sees a Rebound Amid USD WeaknessXAUUSD Analysis – 01/07: Gold Sees a Rebound Amid USD Weakness – Is a Recovery on the Cards? As we enter the new month, gold prices are showing signs of recovery after a significant drop, primarily driven by the weakening of the US Dollar. However, despite some positive momentum, the path to sustained growth remains uncertain. 💵 USD Weakness Fuels Gold's Potential Rebound Recent US economic data shows a slight decrease in consumer spending, which has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may ease interest rate hikes in the near future. This, in turn, has contributed to a weaker USD, providing an opportunity for gold to recover slightly. ⚖️ The Federal Reserve's Role Remains Critical The markets are awaiting further clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves, especially with the ongoing debate about the potential direction of interest rates. While the recent economic data isn't weak enough to force a policy reversal, it hasn't been strong enough to give the Fed the confidence to continue its hawkish stance either. 🧠 What Does This Mean for Traders? Gold is responding to macroeconomic factors but still lacks a clear, strong trend. Volatility remains high, with sharp price fluctuations occurring after key economic and political announcements. This uncertainty suggests gold might not yet have the momentum for a definitive break-out or trend reversal. 🔶 Summary: Gold is starting to recover after a tough month but the outlook remains cautious. Buyers are hoping for a Fed rate cut, while sellers are banking on the USD's strength. Traders should stay vigilant, waiting for clear confirmation before making major moves. 📊 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Levels: 3358 – 3360 – 3364 – 3375 – 3380 Support Levels: 3300 – 3290 – 3280 – 3275 🎯 Trading Strategy: 🔵 Buy Zone: Entry: 3310 – 3315 SL: 3300 TP: 3320 – 3330 – 3340 – 3350 – 3360 🔴 Sell Zone: Entry: 3370 – 3375 SL: 3380 TP: 3360 – 3350 – 3340 – 3325 ⚠️ Final Thoughts: With USD weakness persisting, gold may continue its rebound, but the market remains uncertain. Keep an eye on macroeconomic data and geopolitical events, as they will likely shape gold's next move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Report - 1 jully, 2025Global Macro & Currencies: The US dollar has experienced a historic slide in 2025, falling about 10% year to date — its worst first half since 1973. This dramatic weakness has been driven by a combination of political and economic factors: mounting concerns over the fiscal path under President Trump, ballooning debt loads fueled by aggressive tax cuts, and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve as markets increasingly price in multiple rate cuts. Additionally, erratic tariff policies and renewed trade tensions have further undermined the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. While many expected the dollar to strengthen as the US economy outperformed and global risks rose, the opposite has occurred. Instead, European currencies have surged: the euro has climbed nearly 10% against the dollar this year, and sterling has gained almost 9%. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has remained under pressure, but there are signs that safe-haven flows may soon stabilize it, given rising geopolitical tensions and global volatility. From a practical investment perspective, the weaker dollar provides a strong tailwind for US multinational corporations with significant overseas revenues. It also supports commodity prices broadly, as seen in gold trading near record highs at around $3,289 per ounce. Investors should consider increasing allocations to hedged international equities or adding European equity exposure, where currency gains can further enhance returns. Moreover, actively hedging USD exposure in global portfolios becomes increasingly important to protect against continued weakness and further policy surprises. Equities & Sector Rotation Analysis: US equities have staged a strong comeback in Q2, with the S&P 500 rising 10% in the quarter and hitting record highs. This recovery is largely driven by expectations of lower interest rates, robust corporate earnings, and renewed enthusiasm for technology and AI-focused stocks. Companies like Nvidia continue to lead, with massive gains fueled by AI infrastructure spending and optimism around future growth. Interestingly, this rebound has narrowed the performance gap with European markets. Earlier in the year, investors rotated into European equities on hopes of fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, particularly Germany’s €1tn “whatever it takes” plan. While European stocks still slightly outperform on a year-to-date basis (+7% vs. +5% for the S&P 500), the momentum has clearly shifted back to the US as growth data and earnings resilience support valuations. Sector-wise, leadership has again become narrow, with technology, communications, and financials outperforming while defensive sectors such as utilities and real estate lag. This suggests a renewed preference for growth and cyclicals over defensive positioning, at least in the short term. Small-cap stocks continue to underperform, reflecting persistent macro uncertainties and a flight to quality. For investors, this implies a tactical tilt toward large-cap US growth and tech names could still deliver relative strength, but caution is warranted as valuations stretch and volatility could resurface with upcoming tariff decisions and geopolitical risks. European exposure remains attractive for diversification, especially if fiscal initiatives translate into stronger earnings growth, but conviction in execution is needed. Fixed Income & Yield Curve Dynamics: In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields have moved lower across the curve, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.20% after peaking above 4.8% earlier this year. This decline reflects growing market conviction that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September, with futures pricing in as many as five quarter-point cuts through 2025. The recent dovish pivot by the Fed has significantly improved risk sentiment, driving demand for longer-duration assets. We see strong gains in 20+ year Treasuries (+1.0% on the day), while intermediate and short-term Treasuries have also rallied. The overall move has flattened parts of the curve, suggesting that while markets anticipate lower rates, growth concerns remain, especially as fiscal worries and debt sustainability questions persist. Globally, yields are following a similar downward trajectory. UK gilts and German bunds have eased, as investors bet on further easing amid weaker economic data and a more cautious ECB stance. In Europe, inflation has cooled below the 2% target, supporting expectations of one more ECB cut before year-end, even as policymakers remain wary of structural inflation risks (like AI-driven wage pressures and supply chain fragmentation). Credit spreads in US corporate bonds have remained tight, indicating strong appetite for risk despite macro uncertainties. High-yield and investment-grade bonds have both benefited from this supportive backdrop. Meanwhile, emerging market debt has rallied, helped by the weaker dollar and lower global rates, attracting inflows into local currency debt. For investors, extending duration looks tactically appealing as rate cuts approach, but we remain cautious about heavy exposure to the long end given potential volatility from fiscal developments and geopolitical shocks. Credit remains attractive selectively, with opportunities in high-yield and EM debt, especially for investors looking to capture carry in a lower-rate environment. Currencies & Dollar Dynamics: The US dollar has experienced its worst start to a year since 1973, dropping over 10% year-to-date. The dollar index, which tracks it against a basket of major currencies (including the euro, yen, and pound), has fallen sharply as global investors reassess their exposure to the greenback amid Trump’s erratic trade policy, a ballooning fiscal deficit, and concerns over Fed independence. The immediate trigger has been the combination of rising fiscal risks from Trump's proposed tax bill — expected to add $3.2 trillion to debt over the next decade — and expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. The perception that US economic exceptionalism might wane has undermined dollar demand as a safe haven. The euro has benefited the most, climbing more than 13% to over $1.17 — defying earlier forecasts of a decline to parity. Meanwhile, the pound has gained nearly 9%, supported by relative political stability and a resilient labor market. The Japanese yen has strengthened as well (+12.6% YTD), despite traditionally dovish Bank of Japan policies, with investors treating it as a safe haven amid global trade uncertainty. In emerging markets, a weaker dollar has lifted currencies and supported local debt. Brazil’s real, Mexico’s peso, and South Korea’s won have all rallied, reflecting strong investor appetite for higher-yielding assets. However, caution is warranted: with the dollar’s sharp decline becoming a crowded trade, some technical consolidation is likely in coming weeks. We believe the dollar’s longer-term trend remains bearish but anticipate near-term volatility as markets recalibrate positions and digest fiscal developments in the US. Investors should continue hedging dollar exposures and consider selectively increasing allocations to EM currencies and euro-denominated assets, which stand to benefit from continued dollar softness and potential European growth stabilization.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Critical Channel Watch Begins on the 1-Hour Chart of USDJPY.Hey everyone, 📉 My Latest USDJPY Analysis: USDJPY is currently moving within a downtrend. If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the parallel channel, our first target level will be 142.910. The most crucial factor here is the downward breakout of that channel—don’t overlook it. Also, keep a close eye on key economic data releases on the fundamental side, as they could significantly influence your strategy. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
by TraderTilki
14
USD/JPY Bearish Flag (30.06.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 143.40 2nd Support – 142.86 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
82
ALGO: Surprise Rally Ahead?Yello Paradisers, did you spot that breakout from the descending channel in time or are you still waiting for confirmation that already happened? 💎#ALGO/USDT has officially broken out of its multi-week descending channel after a textbook Break of Structure (BoS). Price action gave us a beautiful retrace into the demand zone, and from there boom momentum began shifting. This move is now showing early signs of bullish continuation, but as always, the majority will only realize it once the big move is already done. 💎#ALGO had been trading within a clearly defined descending channel, with price reacting precisely between the descending resistance and descending support lines. The breakout occurred after a strong candle pierced the descending resistance, and more importantly, we got a BoS followed by a clean retest of the demand zone around $0.165–$0.175. That reaction was sharp and decisive, indicating strong interest from buyers stepping in. 💎As of now, it is trading near $0.186 and forming higher lows, which supports the idea of an ongoing trend reversal. The structure has changed, and bulls are slowly regaining control. If price sustains above $0.190, the doors open for further upside. The first key level that could slow momentum is minor resistance near $0.210. If that level breaks with volume, moderate resistance around $0.230 becomes the next critical zone. Above that, the major target sits at $0.260, a strong resistance area where a lot of liquidity could be triggered. 💎On the flip side, the strong support zone between $0.145 and $0.155 remains our invalidation area. If price drops below this range, the bullish setup collapses, and we reassess the entire structure. But unless that happens, the bias remains cautiously bullish. Trade Smart. Stay Patient. Be Consistent. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
6
Buy IOC short term target 155, 165 & Medium Term tgt 185, 250 Indian Oil Corporation does business in the entire hydrocarbon value chain - from Refining, Pipeline transportation and marketing of Petroleum products to R&D, Exploration & production, marketing of natural gas and petrochemicals. It has the leadership position in the Oil refining & petroleum marketing sector of India. The company aims to strengthen EV mobility infrastructure by setting up charging points and battery-swapping facilities at its fuel stations. It has also signed a binding term sheet with Panasonic Group to form a JV for manufacturing cells in India. The company’s R&D is focused on emerging fields such as nanotechnology, Solar, Bioenergy, Hydrogen, etc. It has an effective patent portfolio of 1636. It spent Rs 946 Cr in FY24 on R&D. The company’s R&D is focused on emerging fields such as nanotechnology, Solar, Bioenergy, Hydrogen, etc. It has an effective patent portfolio of 1636. It spent Rs 946 Cr in FY24 on R&D. Market Cap ₹ 2,07,370 Cr. Annual Sales - ₹ 758,106 Cr Dividend Yield - 8.20 % Stock P/E - 17.0 Industry PE - 29.2 Debt to equity - 0.82 ROCE - 7.37 % EPS - ₹ 9.63 Fundamentally, this big company is trading at a very low valuation. The Crude Oil price is expected this year to be on lowest, so we can expect good profit margin and this company is into green energy business so it should have PE multiple of that business as well. We Expect growth in EPS by 30% to 12.5 And re-rating of PE multiple to 20 so that give the share price to ₹ 250 which gives return of 70.88% from current price level of 146.30. Technically, this is very bullish on weekly, daily timeframe. Price is trading above all short term, medium term averages. It has formed a bullish candlestick pattern on daily and weekly chart, so we expect immediate strong upside to 155, 165 and eventually 185 level and investment target of 250 levels.
NSE:IOCLong
by PrashantDahale
GOLD → Recovery and retest of resistance. DowntrendFX:XAUUSD has been recovering since the start of the session thanks to a weak dollar, but further growth is uncertain. However, the price is still below the key range and important levels. At the beginning of the week, gold rebounded from monthly lows amid a weakening US dollar, which remains under pressure due to trade disputes with Japan, uncertainty surrounding the budget, and expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. However, the technical picture for gold remains bearish, and further dynamics will depend on new statements from Fed officials, labor market data, and Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday. Technically, after breaking through the global range support, the price is forming a correction and testing 3294. Before a possible rise to 3320 or to the 0.7 Fibonacci zone, a correction to 3271 may form, which will determine the further development of the situation. Support levels: 3271, 3255, 3245 Resistance levels: 3294, 3320, 3347 A retest of 3295 (0.5) Fibonacci is forming. There is a possibility of a false breakout with a possible correction. If, during the correction, buyers keep the price above 3271 and return to retest 3294, we will have a chance to attempt growth to 3320 - 3347 Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
36
Gold Breaks Key Resistance — Bullish Spike in FormationGold dropped to the 61% Fibonacci retracement level, aligning with the long-term ascending trendline, where it showed a strong bullish rejection. Currently, price is breaking out of the descending channel and the 200 SMA, and is beginning to form a potential bullish spike formation. If this pattern completes and breaks to the upside, we would have three confluencing technical signals pointing to a possible target area around $3,425.881. 📌 I’ll wait for a confirmed breakout of the bullish spike to look for long entries.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by didacbague46
Skeptic | PEPE : Spot & Futures Triggers for Maximum EdgeWelcome, traders, its Skeptic! Ready to dissect PEPE’s next moves? I’m diving into a pro-level analysis of PEPE, the #30 crypto and 3rd largest meme coin with a $4.08B market cap. This Analysis delivers a comprehensive breakdown—quick facts, 2025 performance, community strength, and technical triggers for spot and futures trading, all rooted in HWC, MWC, LWC cycles. Trade with no FOMO, no hype, just reason. 🙌 Let’s master PEPE! 🚖 Quick Facts PEPE, an Ethereum-based meme coin launched in April 2023, is inspired by the Pepe the Frog internet meme. With a 420.69 trillion token supply, it features a deflationary burn mechanism and redistribution rewards for long-term holders. Currently trading at $ 0.00000946 , it ranks as the # 30 cryptocurrency and the 3rd largest meme coin behind Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, with a $ 4.08B market cap. Let’s unpack its 2025 performance and technical setup for actionable trades. 📊 2025 Performance & Community PEPE has faced significant volatility in 2025, down 25.7% year-to-date and 35% this month. Despite this, its community remains robust with 456,000 + holders, and an impressive 37% haven’t sold in over a year , signaling diamond hands and strong belief in the project. This resilience suggests potential for recovery if market sentiment shifts. Technical Analysis: Cycle-Based Breakdown From a cycle perspective, Weekly/Monthly timeframes are range-bound, meaning lower timeframes drive most price action and shape near-term opportunities. Let’s break it down: Daily Timeframe After a 100% jump from May 6-22, 2025, PEPE retraced nearly the entire move. Momentum is currently bearish on the Daily, but declining volume during this pullback suggests traders view it as a correction rather than a trend reversal. Interest in heavy trading is low, indicating limited momentum for now. Key Insight: The Daily is bearish but lacks strong selling pressure, hinting at consolidation. Watch for volume spikes to confirm directional moves. Triggers for Spot Trading Long Trigger: Break above resistance at $ 0.00001403 , confirmed by a volume surge during the breakout. For extra confirmation, check PEPE/BTC. If PEPE/BTC breaks its downtrend line, it signals liquidity inflow and potential for strong growth. The primary trigger is a break of 0.0000000001399 on PEPE/BTC, which could spark explosive rallies for PEPE. Use indicators/oscillators (e.g., RSI) for additional confirmation, as PEPE/BTC volume is fake due to it being a ratio. Key Insight: A PEPE/BTC breakout is a strong bullish signal, but volume confirmation is critical to avoid fake moves. 4-Hour Timeframe for Futures Triggers On the 4-hour chart, PEPE has started an uptrend momentum. Should you go long on a break of resistance at $0.00001049? No —the Daily remains bearish, making the first wave risky. First-wave moves against the Daily often face high volatility and fake breakouts, lowering your win rate. Instead: Long Trigger: Wait for the second uptrend wave after breaking $0.00001049, forming a range ceiling. Confirm with a volume increase, RSI entering overbought, or other oscillators to avoid fake breakouts or stop-loss hunts. Short Trigger: Break below support at $ 0.00000894 is a strong short trigger, aligning with the bearish Daily. This setup offers favorable R/R ratios, especially if 4-hour momentum turns bearish. Set alarms for this level to catch the move. Pro Tip: Shorts are safer due to Daily alignment. For longs, skip the first wave, wait for the second, and use tight risk management to navigate volatility. Final Vibe Check This PEPE Analysis arms you with precise triggers for spot and futures trading, leveraging cycle-based strategies. With a range-bound Weekly, focus on Daily and 4-hour for opportunities. Short at $0.00000894 aligns with the trend, while longs need second-wave confirmation above $0.00001049 or a PEPE/BTC breakout at 0.0000000001399. Protect your capital—stick to MAX 1%–2% risk per trade. Want more cycle-based setups or another pair? Drop it in the comments! If this analysis sharpened your edge, hit that boost—it fuels my mission! 😊 Stay disciplined, fam! ✌️ 💬 Let’s Talk! Which PEPE trigger are you watching? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s crush it together!
by SkepticWise
3
Blackstone Leads the Revival of IPOs in Spain Blackstone Leads the Revival of IPOs in Spain with Cirsa and HIP Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Blackstone, the world’s largest investment fund, has strongly reactivated the IPO market in Spain with two of its most prominent portfolio companies: Cirsa, a gaming industry giant, and Hotel Investment Partners (HIP), a leader in vacation resorts in Southern Europe. Both companies are in advanced stages of an initial public offering process, following a dual-track strategy that simultaneously explores a market listing or a direct sale to the highest bidder. This strategy offers flexibility to maximize value based on investor demand and market conditions. This dual-track model involves preparing two strategic alternatives: An IPO (Initial Public Offering): listing the company’s shares on a regulated market to raise capital or enable shareholders to sell their stakes. A direct sale (trade sale): selling the company to another fund, institutional investor, or industry player. This approach allows Blackstone to remain flexible and choose the most profitable or stable option, depending on investor appetite and market timing. It is a common model among major private equity firms looking to maximize returns when exiting mature or high-potential assets. In Cirsa’s case, the traditional IPO route has been selected, involving the issuance of new shares and an overallotment option. For HIP, the final decision between an IPO or a trade sale is still under evaluation. Cirsa: First to Market Cirsa aims to raise €400 million in its stock market debut, with a total estimated valuation of €2.52 billion, according to documents seen by Reuters. The company, which operates in Spain, Italy, Morocco, Latin America, and more recently in Portugal and Puerto Rico, will issue new shares at an initial price of €15, with an additional €68 million overallotment option. The transaction, led by BBVA, Jefferies, Mediobanca, Société Générale, and UBS, would mark the first IPO in Spain since HBX Group's offering in February. It could help revitalize the national capital markets, particularly in leisure and tourism sectors. HIP: On the Road to the Stock Market Simultaneously, HIP has completed its transformation into a public limited company—an essential step toward going public. The firm manages 73 hotels with over 22,000 rooms across Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece, and is valued at around €6.5 billion. In December 2023, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC acquired a 35% stake, strengthening HIP’s institutional appeal. HIP’s IPO process is being managed by Citi and Morgan Stanley, with legal advisory from Uría Menéndez. The remaining financial advisors are expected to be announced shortly. Strategic Rotation Amid a New Real Estate Cycle In parallel with these IPOs, Blackstone has been carrying out a strategic rotation of its real estate portfolio in Spain, particularly in Catalonia, where both the residential and logistics markets have shown signs of cooling after years of expansion. Regulatory pressure, rental restrictions, and political uncertainty have compressed margins in the residential sector. In response, the fund has redirected its focus toward the hotel sector, which has proven more dynamic and profitable in the post-pandemic context—marked by record occupancy rates, rising prices per room, and strong international investor appetite. HIP has become its flagship vehicle for this bet, and the upcoming IPO strengthens its long-term commitment to high-quality tourism in Southern Europe. At the same time, Blackstone has rotated toward the gaming and entertainment sector with its investment in Cirsa; into logistics and industrial assets via platforms like Mileway or Logicor; and has explored infrastructure and energy opportunities, such as renewables, distribution networks, or treatment plants—though at a lower scale than in hospitality. In short, Blackstone has shifted its attention to more institutionalized sectors tied to tourism or structural consumption, where it can apply its model of active asset revaluation. Spain Back on the Radar of Global Investors Blackstone’s simultaneous push for these two IPOs could mark a turning point for the Spanish market, which has seen limited IPO activity in recent years. The success of these listings could open the door to new deals, at a time when demand for European assets is rebounding, fueled by macroeconomic stability and Southern Europe’s appeal in tourism and leisure. Through these moves, Blackstone not only optimizes its portfolio in Spain but also positions the country as a key destination for major IPOs in Europe. ******************************************************************************************* La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial. Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información. Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. 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