Japanese yen declines as Tokyo Core CPI easesThe Japanese yen has extended its losses on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.39, up 0.40% on the day.
After a string of releases that pointed to an upswing in inflation, Tokyo core CPI for February reversed the trend on Friday. Japan's CPI, PPI and the Bank of Japan Core CPI all accelerated in the most recent releases but Tokyo Core CPI surprised to the downside, with a gain of 2.2% y/y. This was down from 2.5% in January and below the market estimate of 2.3%.
The soft Tokyo Core CPI reading is unlikely to raise many eyebrows at the Bank of Japan. The index remained above the BoJ's 2% target for a fourth consecutive month and Bank policymakers are expected to remain hawkish about monetary policy. The BoJ raised rates in January and also revised its inflation forecasts upwards, a signal that further rate hikes are on the table.
The markets are expecting the BoJ to continue tightening and this has been resulted in higher yields for Japanese government bonds, which hit a 15-year high earlier this month. Governor Kazuo Ueda responded to the sharp rise in bond yields with a warning that the central bank stood ready to intervene in the bond markets. Ueda's threat appears to have worked as bond yields have retreated slightly.
The US wraps up the week with core PCE inflation, the Fed's peferred inflation gauge. The market estimates for January stand at 2.6% y/y (vs. 2.8% in December) and 0.2% m/m (vs. 0.3% in December). This would still be above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The Fed is not expected to lower rates before May, barring an unexpected surprise from inflation or employment data.
USD/JPY tested resistance at 150.39 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 150.98
There is support at 149.57 and 148.98
Fundamental Analysis
Delayed Cycle Kicks Off This March? (Chart)🚀📈 Delayed Cycle Kicks Off This March? 🔥💡
March has (almost) arrived, and Bitcoin has officially confirmed $79,478 as major structural support—a critical level that had to be checked before the next move. This aligns perfectly with my previous idea of a delayed cycle playing out.
📌 Long above 79K
📌 Short below 79K
📌 Short-term target: GETTEX:87K+
With this structural support holding, I expect Bitcoin to push toward the next major test: $113,800. This is the all-time trendline, a level of historical significance.
🔑 What happens at 113K?
This is where Bitcoin’s fate for this cycle will be decided:
✅ A breakout above 113K could unlock a run to 150K - 200K, a true extension of this cycle.
❌ A terminal rejection at 113K could mark the end of this cycle, signaling a broader correction phase.
At the moment, the probabilities lean toward further upside, with an 80% chance of continuation. The 20% downside risk remains for a dip to FWB:65K-66K, but as long as Bitcoin stays above 79K, the bullish thesis remains intact.
💡 March looks strong, and I’m stepping on the gas today.
Let’s make it a powerful month! 🚀
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
video:
WATCH for potential reversals at $2,830-$2,825, as institutional🔥 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! 🚀💰
📢 TRADE RECOMMENDATION:
📉 SELL XAU/USD (Gold) – Ultra-Aggressive Setup 📉
🎯 Entry Plan:
Entry Point: $2,870 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level)
Stop-Loss (SL): $2,882 (Above 61.8% Fibonacci level – Protect against false breakouts)
Take-Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: $2,860 (Psychological support level)
TP2: $2,850 (Liquidity pool target)
FINAL TP (MAXIMUM PROFIT ZONE): $2,825.05 (Institutional buy orders & strong liquidity zone)
⚡ Risk-Reward Ratio:
3:1 (Ultra-optimized for maximum gains & minimum risk)
🔥 ULTRA-AGGRESSIVE EXECUTION PLAN 🚀🔥
📌 CONFIRMATIONS BEFORE ENTRY:
✔ Bearish Candlestick Pattern near $2,870 – Wait for rejection before entering✔ Order Flow Validation: Ensure increased sell orders & institutional bearish momentum✔ VWAP & EMA Cross Confirmation: Confirm price is below VWAP & 50 EMA for bearish trend continuation✔ MACD Bearish Crossover & RSI Momentum Shift: Validate downward strength
🔥 FINAL DECISION – MILKING THE MARKET STRATEGY! 🏆💰🚀
🔻 VERDICT: SELL 🔻
Exact Entry Price: $2,870
Stop-Loss (SL): $2,882
Take-Profit (TP1): $2,860
Take-Profit (TP2): $2,850
Final TP (Maximum Profit Target): $2,825.05 🚀
📉 Institutional sentiment & order flow data confirm a bearish outlook for Gold. This setup is engineered for MAXIMUM profitability while maintaining strict risk management!
🚨 WATCH for potential reversals at $2,830-$2,825, as institutional buy pressure may emerge!
💰 AGGRESSIVELY EXECUTE & MILK THE MARKET NOW! 🔥📊
Delayed Cycle Kicks Off This March?🚀📈 Delayed Cycle Kicks Off This March? 🔥💡
March has (almost) arrived, and Bitcoin has officially confirmed $79,478 as major structural support—a critical level that had to be checked before the next move. This aligns perfectly with my previous idea of a delayed cycle playing out.
📌 Long above $79K
📌 Short below $79K
📌 Short-term target: $GETTEX:87K+
With this structural support holding, I expect Bitcoin to push toward the next major test: $113,800. This is the all-time trendline, a level of historical significance.
🔑 What happens at $113K?
This is where Bitcoin’s fate for this cycle will be decided:
✅ A breakout above $113K could unlock a run to $150K - $200K, a true extension of this cycle.
❌ A terminal rejection at $113K could mark the end of this cycle, signaling a broader correction phase.
At the moment, the probabilities lean toward further upside, with an 80% chance of continuation. The 20% downside risk remains for a dip to $FWB:65K-$66K, but as long as Bitcoin stays above $79K, the bullish thesis remains intact.
💡 March looks strong, and I’m stepping on the gas today.
Let’s make it a powerful month! 🚀
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
EURUSD 15MIN BUY BIASGood morning to you fellow traders, if you are seeing this early, it will help you confirm you trade ideas for EURUSD. the trend is a all time bears, but taking a pull back is what the moves i make. Once we get a BOS up there there will be a trace back to take out LIQ and push up more. go through the analysis I made and strategize and draw your conclusion
GBPUSD Monthly close Feb Price Action Overview:
Price broke out lower after sweeping Monday and Tuesday's high.
President Trump's speech discussed a 25% tariff on EU exports to the US and uncertainties in the UK.
This led to a stronger dollar, breaking the perceived Tuesday weekly low and making Wednesday the weekly high above @1.2700.
Market Relationships:
Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have maintained a good relationship, which might result in a beneficial bilateral agreement, potentially leading to a tariff-free exchange.
Session Analysis:
Asian session lows have already been taken out.
Expectations are for the Asian highs to be reached after filling the imbalances left in the early London session @1.2590.
Price will target the sell-side imbalance (SIBI) left on Thursday (yesterday) @1.2645, taking out yesterday’s NY highs.
From that point, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data could move the price lower.
Weekly and Monthly Outlook:
Today is the final day of the week (bearish), which left a buy-side imbalance (BISI) unfilled @1.2560, which might be filled later.
This is also the final day of the month (bullish).
Keep in mind the PCE data release today.
Confluence Analysis:
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has made a higher high, while EURUSD has made a higher low, indicating a potential confluence and divergence.
This confluence suggests that the price might run in the opposing direction shortly after, adding to the overall market dynamics.Price Action Overview:
Price broke out lower after sweeping Monday and Tuesday's high.
President Trump's speech discussed a 25% tariff on EU exports to the US and uncertainties in the UK.
This led to a stronger dollar, breaking the perceived Tuesday weekly low and making Wednesday the weekly high above @1.2700.
Market Relationships:
Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have maintained a good relationship, which might result in a beneficial bilateral agreement, potentially leading to a tariff-free exchange.
Session Analysis:
Asian session lows have already been taken out.
Expectations are for the Asian highs to be reached after filling the imbalances left in the early London session @1.2590.
Price will target the sell-side imbalance (SIBI) left on Thursday (yesterday) @1.2645, taking out yesterday’s NY highs.
From that point, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data could move the price lower.
Weekly and Monthly Outlook:
Today is the final day of the week (bearish), which left a buy-side imbalance (BISI) unfilled @1.2560, which might be filled later.
This is also the final day of the month (bullish).
Keep in mind the PCE data release today.
Confluence Analysis:
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has made a higher high, while EURUSD has made a higher low, indicating a potential confluence and divergence.
This confluence suggests that the price might run in the opposing direction shortly after, adding to the overall market dynamics.
How To Manage Your Risk In Trading?Beginner!
Chasing profits is not the only purpose of smart trading. It is also about managing risk correctly. Every trade comes with uncertainty, and without a solid strategy, even the best opportunities can turn into costly mistakes. That’s where the 3-5-7 Rule comes in.
Think of it as a built-in safety net for your trades, a simple yet powerful guideline that helps you balance risk and reward. By setting clear limits on your exposure per trade, per market, and across your portfolio, the 3-5-7 Rule keeps you in control, protecting your investments from unexpected losses.
In this guide, we’ll break it all down: how the rule works, why it’s effective, and how you can apply it to your own trading strategy. Plus, we’ll walk through real examples to make it practical and easy to follow. By the end, you’ll be trading with more confidence, better discipline, and a clear plan to keep risk in check.
What is the 3 5 7 Rule?
The 3 5 7 rule works on a simple principle: never risk more than 3% of your trading capital on any single trade; limit your overall exposure to 5% of your capital on all open trades combined; and ensure your winning trades are at least 7% more profitable than your losing trades. It’s simple in theory, but success depends on discipline and consistency.
Platinum Prices Poised for Decline as Seasonality & Supply ZonePlatinum prices are currently approaching a key Supply zone as the Futures contract PL1! retraces following an initial bearish impulse. This price action suggests that the market may be poised for further downside movement.
Analyzing seasonal trends reveals a potential for bearish behavior, consistent with patterns observed over the past decade. Historically, this time of year has often been associated with a decline in platinum prices, making the current setup particularly noteworthy.
With these indicators in mind, we are actively monitoring the market for short setups. The convergence of the price approaching the Supply zone and historical seasonality trends reinforces the possibility of a downward move in platinum. As the market unfolds, we aim to position ourselves accordingly to take advantage of any shorting opportunities.
✅ Please share your thoughts about Platinum in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
GOLD: Why Should We Be Careful with GOLD? What's Next?GOLD: Why Should We Be Careful with GOLD? What's Next?
From our previous analysis, gold reacted perfectly in line with our expectations. However, this time the situation is becoming more complex. Today, I also observed a bearish harmonic pattern on the daily timeframe.
✅You may not like selling gold, but having this scenario on your trading radar is better.
✅You may watch the analysis for further details!
✅If you found this analysis useful, I would really appreciate it if you would share your opinion below, and don't forget to press the like button :)
Thank you:)
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold Analysis (#8)The market has been highly reactive following yesterday’s GDP and Unemployment Claims report. The DXY strengthened sharply, reaching a key resistance at 107.474. Previously, this level acted as a strong support and has now turned into a major resistance zone.
DXY Analysis
We need to consider multiple scenarios for the dollar index:
Most Likely Scenario: If DXY gets rejected from 107.474, we can look for short positions below 107.063, anticipating a continuation of the secondary downtrend in the daily timeframe.
Alternative Scenario: If DXY breaks above 107.474, it could continue strengthening toward 107.767, confirming that the correction is over and resuming the major uptrend.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis
Gold dropped below 2878.87, entering a price correction phase. Key support levels to watch:
2841.25 (Fib 50%)
2811
2790 (Strong demand zone)
Short Position Plan (1H Timeframe)
If gold finds support at 2855 (35% Fib), and later breaks it, a short entry could be considered.
If the drop continues, the next major short opportunity is at 2841.89 in the 4H timeframe.
Long Position Plan
A confirmed breakout above 2879.26 will indicate strength, making it a valid long entry point.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis
BTC has been experiencing significant downside pressure, aligning with the February 26 analysis where I highlighted the potential for a price correction within its major uptrend.
As mentioned earlier, losing 80-82K support would shift the market bias to bearish, favoring short positions. If you shorted BTC from 85K, this could be a great area to secure profits.
Currently, BTC lacks a clear structure, so I’m waiting for more confirmation before taking new positions.
What’s Next for BTC?
If BTC closes below 80K, we will need to reassess the market structure and update our strategy accordingly.
If BTC holds above this level, there is still a chance for a recovery and potential upside continuation.
However, if 80K is lost, the recovery process could take much longer than expected.
Final Thoughts
Stay patient and wait for clear market structures before entering trades. If you’re already in positions, manage them carefully based on these levels.
I’m Skeptic , and I’m grateful to be on this journey with you all. Trading is tough, but growing together makes it worthwhile. Stay profitable and see you tomorrow! 🚀💡
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗GBP/JPY "The Beast" ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (187.700) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (190.500) swing Trade Basis Using the 3H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 185.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Sentimental Outlook:
GBP/JPY "The Beast" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term, driven by several key factors.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Fundamental Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Interest Rates: BoE at 4-4.5% (easing cycle), BoJ at 0.25-0.5%—yield gap narrows, mildly bearish for GBP/JPY.
Inflation: UK at 2.5-3% (cooling), Japan at 2.5% (persistent)—neutral, balances GBP vs. JPY strength.
Growth: UK GDP ~1-1.5%, Japan ~1%—both modest, neutral impact.
Trade: UK exports lag, Japan benefits from U.S. tariff shifts—bullish for JPY, bearish for GBP/JPY.
Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven JPY gains in risk-off—bearish pressure.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Macroeconomic Factors˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
U.S.: Fed at 3-3.5%, PCE 2.6%—USD softness aids GBP/JPY—bullish (Eurostat/U.S. data).
Eurozone: PMI 46.2—stagnation weakens EUR, indirectly supports GBP—bullish (Eurostat).
Global: China 4.5%, Japan 1%—slow growth, JPY safe-haven appeal—bearish (ECB forecasts).
Commodities: Oil $70.44—stable, neutral for GBP/JPY (global data).
Trump Policies: Tariffs shift trade to Japan—JPY strength, bearish for GBP/JPY.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Global Market Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Forex Markets: GBP/USD at 1.2650, USD/JPY at 150.00—GBP resilience vs. JPY strength—mixed.
Equity Markets: FTSE 100 stable, Nikkei range-bound—neutral correlation.
Crypto/Commodities: Gold at $2,930—risk-off supports JPY—bearish.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Commitments of Traders (COT) Data˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Speculators: Net short JPY ~140,000 contracts (down from 150,000)—fading bearishness, mildly bullish JPY.
Hedgers: Net long JPY ~90,000—exporters expect JPY strength, bearish for GBP/JPY.
Open Interest: ~280,000 contracts—steady interest, neutral.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Market Sentiment Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Retail: 65% short GBP/JPY at 189.50 (global X posts)—contrarian upside—bullish potential.
Institutional: Cautious, favoring JPY in risk-off—bearish outlook.
Corporate: UK/Japan firms hedge at 190-192—neutral.
Social Media Trends: Bearish setups to 185.00—short-term bearish sentiment.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Positioning Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Speculative: Longs target 192.00-194.00, shorts aim for 188.00-185.00.
Retail: Shorts at 190.00-191.00—squeeze risk if price rises.
Institutional: Leaning short GBP/JPY, eyeing JPY strength.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Quantitative Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
SMAs: 50-day ~194.00, 200-day ~193.00—price below both, bearish signal.
RSI: 45 (daily)—neutral, fading bearish momentum.
Bollinger: 188.50-190.50—price near lower band, potential bounce.
Fibonacci: 38.2% from 198.94-189.31 at 190.50—resistance above.
Volatility: 1-month IV 10%—±1.80 daily range.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Intermarket Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
GBP/USD: 1.2650—GBP holds vs. USD, bullish for GBP/JPY.
USD/JPY: 150.00—JPY weakens vs. USD, bullish for GBP/JPY.
XAU/USD: $2,930—gold rise, JPY safe-haven—bearish.
FTSE 100: Stable—neutral.
Bonds: UK 10-year 4%, Japan 0.9%—yield gap narrows, bearish.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗News and Events Analysis˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Recent: Trump tariff threats (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China, Feb 25)—risk-off lifts JPY—bearish.
Upcoming: U.S. PCE today (Feb 28)—hot data strengthens USD, pressures GBP/JPY; soft data boosts risk-on, supports GBP—mixed impact.
Impact: Bearish bias today, PCE reaction pivotal.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Next Trend Move˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Technical:
Support: 188.50-188.00
Resistance: 190.50-192.00
Below 188.50 targets 185.00; above 190.50 aims for 194.00.
Short-Term (1-2 Days): Dip to 188.00 if PCE lifts USD; rebound to 190.50 if risk-on prevails.
Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Range 185.00-195.00, tariff/JPY strength key.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Overall Summary Outlook˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
GBP/JPY at 189.50 faces bearish short-term pressure from JPY safe-haven demand (tariffs, risk-off) and technicals (below SMAs), despite GBP resilience vs. USD. COT shows fading JPY shorts, sentiment leans bearish, and PCE today could sway direction. A short-term dip to 188.00 is likely, with medium-term consolidation unless macro shifts favor GBP.
˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗Future Prediction˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗
Bullish: 192.00-195.00 by Q2 2025 if USD softens (DXY to 105), risk-on resumes, or BoE holds rates.
Bearish: 185.00-188.00 if JPY strengthens (USD/JPY to 145), tariffs escalate, or risk-off persists.
Prediction: Bearish short-term to 188.00 (PCE/USD strength), then cautiously bullish to 192.00 by mid-2025 (risk-on recovery).
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
GOLD is under great pressure by the US DollarThe US Dollar Index soared again, which put pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD adding momentum to the adjustment momentum taking place in recent days.
Bloomberg said that after US President Donald Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, currency traders bought the US Dollar, while currencies other than the USD were negatively affected, with the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso being hit the hardest. The soaring US Dollar is also detrimental to precious metals, commodities and digital currencies.
Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. He stated on his "Truth Social" account: "Drugs are still flowing into our country from Mexico and Canada in unacceptable quantities. We cannot let this scourge continue to hurt the United States, so until it stops or is tightly controlled, tariffs are proposed." with Canada and Mexico) scheduled to take effect on March 4 will actually take effect as planned."
Trump also said he would impose "reciprocity" tariffs of 25% on cars and other European goods.
OANDA:XAUUSD In recent times, it has still been going fast and strong, although fundamentally there are still many existing support risks, mainly due to profit-taking activities after a long period of price increases and the strong increase in the price of the US Dollar.
Thanks to the influx of money into safe havens, gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,956.15 an ounce on Monday after a rapid downward correction. Gold prices are clearly fluctuating, short-term fluctuations and some profit-taking are just a normal part of the cycle
Since the presidential election on November 5 of last year, the Dollar Spot Index has gained 6.62%.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
The medium-term uptrend of gold price is threatened when the sell-off momentum brings gold price below the price channel and EMA21, these are negative signals with the next support level being noticed at the price point of 2,835USD, more likely is the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.
Currently, the $2,880 level is the previous support turned resistance with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement becoming the nearest resistance. On the other hand, the RSI tests the 50 mark. Once the RSI passes the 50 mark, this will be a warning of continued price decline because there is still room to fall with the RSI quite far from the oversold level.
As noted to readers in previous publications and short comments during the day, the downward correction will not stop easily before the original price point of 2,900 USD, so you must always be ready for stronger corrections when gold has had a very long period of technical increase.
Although gold has not yet formed a clear downtrend in the medium term, there is still room to fall ahead and notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,850 – 2,835 – 2,814USD
Resistance: 2,868 – 2,880 – 2,900USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2911 - 2909⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2915
→Take Profit 1 2903
↨
→Take Profit 2 2897
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2849 - 2851⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2845
→Take Profit 1 2857
↨
→Take Profit 2 2863
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 28, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD remains under selling pressure near 1.0390 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid risk-off sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index will take centre stage later on Friday.
Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that 25 per cent duties on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, rather than April 2 as he had anticipated the day before. Trump also said goods from China would be subject to an additional 10 per cent duties. He also promised this week to impose 25 per cent tariffs on shipments from the European Union. Tariff uncertainty from Trump is likely to weigh on the common currency in the near term.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she expects the US central bank's interest rate policy to be put on hold for now amid a search for evidence that inflationary pressures are easing and returning to the 2 per cent target. Meanwhile, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said late Wednesday that the Fed should keep interest rates on hold, which continues to put downward pressure on inflation. The Fed's cautious stance could boost the US Dollar and serve as a headwind for EUR/USD.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0380, SL 1.0430, TP 1.0300
Trump, Bonds and Gold ReservesBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
The Trump administration has announced an unexpected move that combines a comprehensive audit of U.S. Treasury gold with a strategy to generate liquidity without issuing new debt. The operation will focus on Fort Knox, the iconic depository where nearly 261.5 million ounces of gold-more than 8,000 metric tons-are held in custody-with much of it stored in this fortress. The review will be conducted by DOGE, the government efficiency department led by Elon Musk. The audit will not only count the ingots, but will include their weighing and purity analysis. Not since 1970 has such a rigorous review been conducted at Fort Knox, the last comprehensive audit being in 1953. In Treasury records, gold is currently valued at $42.22 per ounce, a figure established in 1973. However, the market price has climbed to quotations close to $3,000 per ounce. An accounting revaluation would imply reflecting an additional value of more than 773 billion dollars, generating an immediate injection of liquidity similar to quantitative easing, but without increasing public debt. This maneuver has dual implications. On the one hand, it could provide the necessary resources to finance a Sovereign Fund in the style of those of oil-producing countries or Norway, offering an innovative solution to the problems of fiscal deficits and high public debt.
On the other hand, a discrepancy between the recorded amount of gold and the actual stock could unsettle the financial markets. Since much of the gold trade is conducted through financial instruments and paper book entries, any mismatch could also affect other precious metals and related investment banks. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has dismissed the possibility of revaluation, sources say the move could generate additional revenues of between $700 billion and $1 billion. The initiative is shaping up to be a bold and unprecedented strategy, with the potential to transform the Treasury's financial landscape and open an international debate on the accounting restatement of traditional assets.
Technical Analysis
If we look at the gold price chart it has been making a corrective move that started on Tuesday, February 25th causing the price to move back to the price range from the beginning of the month that gave rise to the last impulse highs. The RSI is currently at a high oversold level of 27.35% which could lead to corrective moves to the upside. Gold's moves since late January have moved gold into a range that could push gold in the direction of $3,000, although its current price is at $2865 and the checkpoint (POC) at $2939. It remains to be seen whether gold will correct yesterday's bearish crossover in the last day of the week after the DOGE team's information on public debt.
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What Lies Beneath Chevron's Venezuelan Exit?In a striking geopolitical maneuver, the Trump administration has revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, effective March 1. This decision marks a sharp departure from the Biden-era policy, which had conditionally allowed Chevron’s operations to encourage free elections in the beleaguered nation. Beyond punishing Venezuela for unmet democratic benchmarks, the move reflects a broader U.S. strategy to bolster domestic oil production and lessen dependence on foreign energy sources. Chevron, a titan with over a century of history in Venezuela, now faces the unraveling of a vital revenue stream, prompting us to ponder the delicate dance between corporate ambition and national agendas.
The ripple effects for Venezuela are profound and perilous. Chevron accounted for nearly a quarter of the country’s oil production, and its exit is forecast to slash Venezuela’s revenue by $4 billion by 2026. This economic blow threatens to rekindle inflation and destabilize a nation already teetering on the edge of recovery, exposing the intricate ties between U.S. corporate presence and sanctioned states. For Chevron, the revocation transforms a once-lucrative asset into a geopolitical liability, thrusting the company into a high-stakes test of resilience. This clash of interests challenges us to consider the true cost of operating in the shadow of political volatility.
On the global stage, this decision reverberates through energy markets and diplomatic corridors. Oil prices have already twitched in response, hinting at tighter supplies. At the same time, the fate of other foreign firms in Venezuela hangs in the balance, shadowed by the looming threat of secondary sanctions. As the U.S. sharpens its confrontational edge, the energy landscape braces for transformation, with consequences for geopolitical alliances and energy security worldwide. Is Chevron’s departure merely a pawn in a broader strategic game, or does it herald a seismic shift in global power dynamics? The answer may redefine the boundaries of energy and influence in the years ahead.
Buy EUR/CAD High Impact NewsThe EUR/CAD pair on the M15 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.5086
2nd Resistance – 1.5124
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ASX200/AUS200 "Australia 200" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the ASX200/AUS200 "Australia 200" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (8360) swing Trade Basis Using the 3H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 8000 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Sentimental Outlook:
ASX200/AUS200 "Australia 200" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term, driven by several key factors.
⭐Fundamental Analysis
Earnings: Q4 2024 EPS growth strong for ASX 200 firms (e.g., banks, miners); Q1 2025 prelims suggest resilience—bullish.
Rates: RBA at 4.35% (stable, Feb 2025)—high yields vs. ECB (2.5%) pressure equities—bearish.
Inflation: Australia at 2.8% (Jan 2025)—above RBA’s 2-3% target, mixed impact.
Growth: GDP ~1.5% (Q4 2024 est.)—steady, mildly bullish.
Geopolitics: U.S.-China tariffs shift trade to Australia—bullish for miners.
⭐Macroeconomic Factors
U.S.: Fed at 3-3.5%, PCE 2.6%—USD softness aids AUD—bullish (Eurostat/U.S. data).
Eurozone: PMI 46.2—stagnation pressures global equities—bearish
Global: China 4.5%, Japan 1%—slow growth, commodity demand soft—bearish (ECB forecasts).
Commodities: Iron ore ~$100/ton, oil $70.44—stable, neutral for ASX miners/energy (global data).
Trump Policies: Tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China)—benefits Australian exports—bullish.
⭐Global Market Analysis
Equity Markets: S&P 500 at 5,990, DAX ~19,000—range-bound, neutral correlation with ASX.
Commodities Influence: Stable mining/energy sectors (BHP, Rio Tinto) support ASX—bullish.
Liquidity: High trading volume reflects global interest—bullish stability.
⭐Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
Speculators: Net long ~60,000 contracts (down from 70,000)—cautious bullishness (global futures).
Hedgers: Net short ~65,000—stable, locking in highs.
Open Interest: ~130,000 contracts—steady global interest, neutral.
⭐Market Sentiment Analysis
Retail: 55% short contrarian upside—bullish potential.
Institutional: Mixed—optimism for miners, caution on rates—neutral.
Corporate: Firms hedge at 8,600-8,650—neutral.
Social media Trends: Bearish bias to 8,200-8,160—bearish short-term (
⭐Positioning Analysis
Speculative: Longs target 8,675-8,700, shorts aim for 8,080-8,000.
Retail: Shorts at 8,568-8,600—squeeze risk if price rises.
Institutional: Balanced, commodity-focused optimism.
⭐Next Trend Move
Technical:
Support: 8080-8000
Resistance: 8,675-8,700
Below 8,080 targets 8,000; above 8,675 aims for 8,750.
Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Dip to 8,000 if risk-off persists; rebound to 8,700 if support holds.
Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Range 8,080-8,800, tariff-driven.
⭐Overall Summary Outlook
ASX 200 at 8,080.00 balances bullish fundamentals (earnings, tariffs, commodity stability) with bearish pressures (global slowdown, RBA rates, sentiment). COT shows cautious longs, positioning suggests short-term caution, and global trends support a dip before recovery. Short-term downside to 8,000 likely, with medium-term upside to 8,800 if macro stabilizes.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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The downtrend dominates, the focus needs attentionGeneral crude oil market and WTI crude oil technical chart TVC:USOIL Still in a downward trend.
Trump revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, which has fueled supply-side market concerns and supported a recovery in oil prices, but they are still on a downtrend and trade policy uncertainty has limited a recovery in demand expectations. The focus of the crude oil market will still need to pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation, the US Dollar index, and the Trump administration's trade policy.
Notable technical levels are as follows.
Support: 68.52USD
Resistance: 70 - 71.43USD