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Fundamental Analysis

Will Santa deliver, or will the buck ram it down?CAPITALCOM:SHOP delivered a strong earnings report recently, key points being: - Strong revenue growth of 26% YoY - Improved free cash flow margin, up to 19% from 16% - Operating income more than doubled YoY On the flip side: - High operational spending - Increase in loan and transaction losses, indicating rising credit risk - Macroeconomic risks Heading into Christmas shopping, SHOP is well positioned. Spending this season is expected to rise 7% compared to 2023, and more people are buying early, leading to more consistent sales. Online shopping is expected to rise once again this year, benefiting SHOP. Obstacles are higher prices, and the outlook of even higher prices to come. The economic plans of the president-elect will without a shed of doubt lead to rising inflation, and many will plan accordingly. However, I believe the upside is greater on the semi-short time, which will help push SHOP share price further. The gap following the earnings release was big, and we might see a pullback short term, so I would hold going long until that gap is resolved. I don’t expect the gap to be filled, but a retrace must be expected. The most recent high above today’s price is from November 2021, so that is not relevant, so no target. There are no obvious support or resistance levels, as price has been pretty flat for ages. Watch for pullbacks, then do your own DD.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by WeRideAtDawn
Will Joey help NU push on, or will they need even more Friends?NYSE:NU has had a good run rising 50% last 12 months, however since releasing positive earnings a month ago the share is down 25%. Among reasons for this is that the AR per customer has dropped from all-time-high of $11.40 to $11 in the last two quarters. Also, they are struggling to attract high(er)-income customers, having their fair share of customers in the low-income bracket. In their key market Brazil, a whooping 56% of the adult population has a credit card from Nubank ( NYSE:NU ’s brand), accomplished in just 10 years. However expansion into other markets is proving difficult, and the company is facing headwinds in Mexico. The somewhat known investor Warren Buffet is an investor, and he recently sold 20% of his share in the company. This could just be rebalancing after a good run but is worth mentioning. Technically the stock is not looking its best at the moment. After a steady growth pretty much since January 2023, we have now seen a steeper correction than usual (on the daily chart). Price has dropped from an ATH of $16.15 to currently $11.99. This meant price dropped below the support of the rising baseline and is now in consolidation. This consolidation can be viewed as a bearish rectangle, indicating a potential break to the downside of the rectangle. Should this happen, there is some support around $10.50 with next support at $8.50. Should price however break to the upside, the mentioned baseline will serve as resistance. The stock is approaching oversold levels on the RSI, and we have seen bounces in such situations before, however the drop before has been steeper this time. Fundamentally I believe the company might have hit if not a wall, then some serious obstacles in expanding their business, both at home in Brazil and internationally. Key numbers are rising, and this might be a sign to the upside potential, if they can be maintained and reached. Technically it looks bad in my view. I believe price will break to the downside of the rectangle and have my eyes on $8.50. On the 4H chart we saw a brief break to the upside of the rectangle, but price very quickly retreated down.
NYSE:NUShort
by WeRideAtDawn
Unveiling Liquidity Siphons: How Crypto Whales Manipulate MarketIn the fast-paced and often opaque world of cryptocurrency trading, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms have become the playground for some of the market’s most sophisticated players—crypto whales. These entities, armed with millions in capital, employ advanced strategies to influence liquidity pools, drain unsuspecting traders, and shape market sentiment in their favor. One such tactic, often referred to as a "liquidity siphon," is a masterclass in subtle manipulation. Here’s how it works: Whales deposit significant amounts of liquidity into decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Uniswap or SushiSwap, inflating the appearance of stability for a token. This lures in retail traders and smaller investors seeking a piece of what looks like a strong opportunity. Then, as volume builds, whales initiate rapid, large-scale transactions to create artificial price movements. By exploiting slippage and impermanent loss dynamics, they simultaneously profit from price arbitrage across other exchanges. But it doesn’t stop there. These whales often plant false signals, leveraging on-chain data visible to the public to create a narrative that fuels FOMO (fear of missing out) or panic selling. They can even amplify their strategies with flash loans, borrowing millions in assets within seconds to further disrupt market equilibrium—all while remaining nearly anonymous. The question for retail traders is: How do you spot this before you’re caught in the current? Key indicators include sudden spikes in liquidity, unusual trading volumes on low-cap tokens, and discrepancies in pricing across DEXs and centralized exchanges. Tools like Nansen or Dune Analytics can help uncover patterns in whale wallet movements, offering a chance to stay one step ahead. Understanding the mechanics behind these moves isn’t just about protecting your portfolio; it’s about leveling the playing field. The decentralized ethos of crypto should empower traders, but staying informed and vigilant is the only way to truly capitalize on this volatile and ever-evolving market. Do you think the rise of on-chain transparency will curb such manipulative tactics, or will whales always find new ways to dominate? Let’s discuss
by Cryptobingbong
1
Strategy 2025. Introducing Palantir, BTC Killer Of The Year 2024It's gone 3 months or so since Palantir stock has joined on Friday, September 20 Stock Top Club, also known as S&P 500 stock index SP:SPX . Palantir was one of the strongest contenders for inclusion in the broad market S&P500 Index. This inclusion, as well as Dell (DELL), came after tech companies Super Micro (SMCI) and Crowdstrike (CRWD) also joined the index earlier in this year 2024. Since that, Palantir stock became the best (i.e. #1) S&P500 index performer this year, with current +375% YTD return in 2024, being highlighted at 80.55 USD per share - the new all the history peak reached last Friday, December, 19 at regular session close. What is most important also, even recent Federal Reserve (The US Central Bank) hawkish projections on monetary policy in 2025 were not able to stop the only game in the city, or even make a pause on Palantir leadership. Since Palantir stock is rallying 7th month in a row, the stalkers remain decently far away, swallowing the galactic dust of Palantir shares. Judge for yourself. One of the nearest pursuer, Nvidia Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA (# 4 out of all S&P500 index performers in 2024) is nearly to finish the year of 2024 with +170% return, i.e. lagging against Palantir behind twice. The quite similar things happen with the most popular and heavy c-coin, also known as Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD that is currently +130% YTD return in 2024. What is most important also, Palantir stock outperforms both - S&P500 index, Nvidia Corp. and Bitcoin 7th straight month in a row. In human words that means, Palantir stock monthly returns (every single month from May to December 2024) were better against each of mentioned above assets. What is Behind this? On November 4, 2024 Palantir Technologies has announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. “We absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting AI demand that won’t slow down. This is a U.S.-driven AI revolution that has taken full hold. The world will be divided between AI haves and have-nots. At Palantir, we plan to power the winners,” said Alexander C. Karp, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Palantir Technologies Inc. Q3 2024 Highlights • U.S. revenue grew 44% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter to $499 million • U.S. commercial revenue grew 54% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter to $179 million • U.S. government revenue grew 40% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter to $320 million • Revenue grew 30% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to $726 million • Closed 104 deals over $1 million • Customer count grew 39% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter • GAAP net income of $144 million, representing a 20% margin • GAAP income from operations of $113 million, representing a 16% margin • Adjusted income from operations of $276 million, representing a 38% margin • Rule of 40 score of 68% • GAAP earnings per share (“EPS”) grew 100% year-over-year to $0.06 • Adjusted EPS grew 43% year-over-year to $0.10 • Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities of $4.6 billion • Cash from operations of $420 million, representing a 58% margin and $995 million on a trailing twelve month basis • Adjusted free cash flow of $435 million, representing a 60% margin and over $1 billion on a trailing twelve month basis. Is the stock growth fundamentally deserved? Definitely, "Yes". Palantir stock Alpha What is Alpha? Alpha (a) is a term used in investing to describe an investment's ability to beat (outperform) the market, or its “edge.” Alpha is thus also often referred to as excess return or the abnormal rate of return in relation to a benchmark, or any other asset (even against simple sitting in a cash) when adjusted for risk. The main graph represents a comparison across Bitcoin and Palantir stocks. Since Palantir outperforms BTC twice over the past 12 months (watch lower "percent bar chart" subgraph), so why isn't to continue the play, by staying in a long with Palantir, and kill "the new oranges" respectively.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by Pandorra
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Potential Drop to $90K(BTC/USD) price action within an upward-sloping channel, marked by support and resistance trendlines. Below is an explanation of the potential move to the $90,000–$92,000 region, incorporating technical and fundamental reasoning: Technical Analysis Trendline Rejection: Red arrows indicate multiple rejections at the channel's upper resistance line, suggesting strong selling pressure at higher levels. A breakdown from the midline of the channel hints at weakening bullish momentum. Support Zone Target: The projected drop aligns with the lower boundary of the channel near $92,000–$90,000, a likely support area. The price appears to be retesting a minor resistance before continuing the downtrend (gray line indicates the likely path). Bearish Divergence: Although not visible in this image, momentum indicators like RSI or MACD could confirm bearish divergence at recent highs. Key Levels: Breakdown of $96,000 would signal increased bearish momentum, accelerating the drop to $90,000. Fundamental Analysis Macro Environment: Concerns about interest rate hikes and tightening monetary policies could dampen risk sentiment, affecting Bitcoin negatively. Any negative developments in regulatory news or crypto-related insolvencies could accelerate selling pressure. Liquidity Considerations: End-of-year liquidity often diminishes, amplifying volatility and price swings. Traders might also sell to lock in profits or rebalance portfolios. Market Sentiment: Recent negative news (e.g., potential exchange issues, or lackluster adoption metrics) could weigh on bullish sentiment. Conversely, fear in traditional markets may lead to risk-off behavior, impacting crypto assets. Conclusion The combination of technical rejection from key levels and possible negative macroeconomic factors supports a potential bearish move toward $90,000
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DreamsForx
#BNX (SPOT) IN (.46- .56) T. (1.47) SL(0.4574)BINANCE:BNXUSDT ( GAMING) Entry (.46- .56) SL 1D close below 0.4574 T1 .67 T2 .95 T3 1.09 T4 1.30 T5 1.47 ______________________________________________________________ Golden Advices. ******************** * collect the coin slowly in the entry range. * Please calculate your losses before the entry. * Do not enter any trade you find it not suitable for you. * No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey. Useful Tags. **************** My total posts www.tradingview.com 1Million Journey www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com ********************************************************************************************** #Manta #OMNI #DYM #AI #IO #XAI #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #VOXEL #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA #SC #JOE #RDNT #IQ #CFX #BICO #CTSI #KMD #FXS #DEGO #FORTH #AST #PORTAL #CYBER #RIF #ENJ #ZIL #APT #GALA #STEEM #ONE #LINK #NTRN #COTI #RENDER #ICX #IMX #ALICE #PYR #PORTAL #GRT #GMT #IDEX #NEAR #ICP #ETH #QTUM #VET #QNT #API3 #BURGER #MOVR #SKL #BAND #ETHFI #SAND #IOTX #T #GTC #PDA #GMX #REZ #DUSK #BNX
Long
by Crypto_alphabit
6
"Bitcoin to $13M per coin" - Michael SaylorBitcoin annualized performance is 60% on average Let that sink in Most traders trading Bitcoin aren't nowhere near that. 1. Introduction to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy Michael Saylor began by outlining MicroStrategy’s decision to make CRYPTOCAP:BTC its primary treasury reserve asset. He explained that the company sees Bitcoin as a superior store of value and an effective hedge against inflation. Traditional fiat currencies, according to Saylor, are increasingly unreliable due to monetary policies that devalue them over time. By embracing Bitcoin, MicroStrategy positions itself as a pioneer in the corporate adoption of digital assets. 2. Leveraging Zero-Interest Convertible Bonds Saylor delved into MicroStrategy’s innovative financing strategies, particularly the issuance of zero-interest convertible bonds. These bonds, amounting to approximately $3 billion, were issued with a 0% interest rate. This seemingly advantageous rate is a result of high investor demand, driven by the value of the embedded call options within the bonds. The volatility of MicroStrategy’s stock, tied closely to Bitcoin’s price movements, makes these options particularly appealing. NASDAQ:MSTR volatility is about 2X the CRYPTOCAP:BTC volatility. Additionally, the bonds were issued at a 55% conversion premium, the highest for such instruments at the time, reflecting strong market confidence in the company’s strategy. Saylor explained that these zero-interest loans allow MicroStrategy to acquire CRYPTOCAP:BTC without the financial burden of servicing interest payments. This approach enables the company to maximize its exposure to Bitcoin while maintaining financial flexibility. 3. Current Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Impact Saylor provided an update on MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings. As of November 2024, the company owns 279,420 bitcoins, purchased for a total cost of $11.9 billion, with an average acquisition price of $42,692 per Bitcoin. With Bitcoin’s price surpassing $90,000, the company’s holdings are now worth over $25 billion, representing more than a 100% return on investment. He highlighted how this significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value has bolstered MicroStrategy’s market capitalization and increased shareholder value. The company’s bold approach has attracted considerable attention from institutional investors and positioned it as a leader in the corporate adoption of Bitcoin. 4. Future Outlook for Bitcoin Saylor expressed an extremely bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that its price could rise to $13 million per coin in the long term. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing adoption make it an inevitable cornerstone of the global financial system. Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s value will continue to increase as more institutions and individuals recognize its potential as a store of value and an inflation hedge. He also addressed the regulatory landscape, noting the challenges posed by governments and central banks. However, Saylor remains optimistic, arguing that the decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it resilient against such challenges. 5. Critique of Traditional Financial Systems Saylor criticized the inefficiencies and risks of traditional banking systems and fiat currencies. He explained that central banks’ monetary policies, such as excessive money printing, erode the value of fiat currencies, making them unreliable for long-term wealth preservation. Bitcoin, on the other hand, offers a decentralized and deflationary alternative that protects against these risks. He also argued that Bitcoin’s adoption is inevitable as it offers a superior solution for wealth storage in a digital, globalized world. Saylor positioned Bitcoin as a foundational technology for financial innovation. 6. Strategic Vision and Long-Term Commitment In closing, Saylor reaffirmed MicroStrategy’s long-term commitment to Bitcoin. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a forward-looking vision, especially during periods of market volatility. For MicroStrategy, Bitcoin is not merely an investment but a strategic asset that aligns with the company’s core mission of creating and preserving shareholder value. Saylor ended by encouraging other companies and investors to consider adopting Bitcoin as part of their long-term strategies, arguing that early adoption offers the most significant rewards. He underscored the transformative potential of Bitcoin, not just for corporations, but for the global financial system as a whole. 7. LONG AND STRONG Critics of MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy raise valid concerns, particularly regarding market volatility, regulatory risks, and the company’s reliance on debt to fund its investments. However, it’s important to understand the rationale behind Michael Saylor’s approach and the broader context of Bitcoin as a financial asset. Saylor’s strategy reflects an unwavering belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value as a hedge against inflation and a superior store of wealth compared to fiat currencies. His boldness in using innovative financial instruments, such as zero-interest convertible bonds, demonstrates his deep understanding of both financial markets and the transformative nature of Bitcoin. Saylor’s intelligence and foresight cannot be underestimated. He is betting on a paradigm shift in global finance, and institutions like pension funds, BlackRock, and other financial powerhouses are beginning to adopt similar strategies, reinforcing his vision. CRYPTOCAP:BTC is not a speculative, short-term investment; it is a long-term play. The minimum recommended investment period for Bitcoin should be 10 years, while the optimal strategy is to hold it indefinitely. Selling Bitcoin prematurely undermines its potential as an asset designed to preserve and grow wealth in an environment where politicians and central banks continue to print money, devaluing traditional currencies. Betting against Saylor and Bitcoin is betting against a future where decentralized, deflationary assets redefine the financial system. As Saylor often emphasizes, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing global adoption make it an asset poised to appreciate forever, rewarding those with the patience and foresight to hold for the long term. Thank you for reading Daveatt
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Daveatt
NAVIGATING THE MARKET PULLBACK🚨📉 #MarketPullback: Navigating the Market Pullback 📉🚨 The market pullback has many traders and investors on edge. Here's what you need to know to stay ahead: 💡 Understand the Trend: A pullback could be a short-term dip in an ongoing uptrend or a sign of a larger correction. Identifying which one it is can help you make informed decisions. 🔍 Opportunity or Caution?: A pullback presents an opportunity to buy at lower prices, but only if you believe the market will recover soon. Otherwise, holding off or cutting losses might be a safer play. ⚠️ Risk Management: If you're buying the dip, ensure you're managing your risk. Setting stop-loss orders can help minimize potential losses if the market continues to drop. 🌍 Market Sentiment: Pay attention to news and investor sentiment. If the pullback is caused by external factors, such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic conditions, it could last longer. 🤔 Are you ready to make your move or sitting this one out? Let me know your thoughts below! 🔥📊💬 Stay sharp. Stay informed. Trade smart. 💬📊🔥
Short
by AlphaBull-Trading
Ripple-XRPUSD Periodic Analysis (Issue 54)The analyst believes that the price of { XRPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
Will XRP stay in the sideways trend channels?Hello everyone, I invite you to a quick review of the XRP to USDT chart on the 12H interval. As we can see, the XRP price is moving in a sideways trend channel in which the price bounce did not effectively overcome the resistance at $ 2.27, the next resistance is at $ 2.47, but then we have visible resistance at $ 2.61, another strong resistance is at $ 2.78, and only when we have a positive exit from the channel, the price can get a strong upward impulse around the resistance at $ 3.29. In a situation where the market will have a further reaction and the price will start to fall again, we have visible support at $ 2.22, then strong support at the lower limit of the channel at $ 1.94, however, if the price leaves the channel at the bottom, it may get a drop to around $ 1.72, and further, taking into account the height of the channel, there may be a price reversal to $ 1.39. The RSI indicator has room for continued growth, but a lot depends on the behavior of BTC itself.
by cryptodailyuk
1
The Ultimate Day Trading Framework: Rules for Consistent SuccessThese are general trading rules that serve as a foundation for your strategy. You must work on them further to develop a precise plan tailored to your preferences, the markets you trade, your time zone, and other related variables. The goal is to create a clear, actionable framework that you can follow consistently every single trading day. 🔍📈📊 General Trading Rules Categorize Observations into Binary Decisions Simplify decisions into two options (e.g., Risk On vs. Risk Off). Decision determines the trade approach. ⚖️ Follow a Rule-Based System Rules are essential for processing setups quickly and accurately. 🛠️ Focus on keeping the process simple and systematic. Market Conditions Trend vs. Trading Range Trend: Look to swing more of your position. Uptrend: Prioritize buying. 📈 Downtrend: Prioritize selling. 📉 Trading Range: Buy low and sell high (scalping focus). 💱 Risk Management Evaluate Risk On vs. Risk Off for each setup. 🚦 Probability Assessment Categorize setups as High Probability vs. Low Probability. ✅❌ Execution Stay Agile Constantly assess market conditions and adapt strategies accordingly. 🔄 Focus on Key Setups On average, expect about 40 setups per day. Be selective and only act on setups that meet your criteria. 🎯 By personalizing these rules and following them diligently, you can bring clarity and consistency to your trading process.
CME_MINI:NQZ2024Education
by AlphaBull-Trading
How to Trade Christmas and New Year Winter Holidays As the winter holidays are already around the corner, you should know exactly when to stop trading and close your trades, and when to resume. In this article, you will learn how Christmas and New Year holidays affect the financial markets and I will share with you my trading schedule. First, let's discuss how winter holidays influence the markets. Winter holidays lead to a dramatic reduction in trading volumes. Many traders and investors take vacations in that period. Major financial institutions, banks, hedge funds often operate with reduced staffing and early closes or are completely close for holidays. All these factors inevitably lead to the diminished trading activity. Look at the schedule of official banking holidays in many countries. Since Tuesday 24th, the banks are officially closed in Europe, UK, USA and so on. But why should you care? If you have free time, why can't you continue trading? Even if you trade technical analysis, you should admit the fact the fundamentals are the main driver for significant price movements. One of the major sources of high impact fundamentals is the economic news releases in the economic calendar. Look at the economic calendar. You can see that the last day of high impact news releases will be Friday, December 20th. After that, the calendar is completely empty. The absence of impactful fundamentals will inevitably make the markets stagnate, making trading very boring. Above is the EURUSD price chart with ATR technical indicator (the one that measure the market volatility). We see a clear drop in volatility during a winter holiday season. You can behold a similar pattern on Gold chart. With the big politicians taking vacations during the holidays season, we tend to see the local easing of geological tensions accompanied by a lack of significant foreign and domestic policy actions and announcements. That's the US congressional calendar. There are no sessions since December 23rd. But there is one more reason why you should not trade during winter holidays. The absence of big players on the market will decrease the overall trading volumes - the liquidity. Lower liquidity will unavoidably increase the bid/ask spreads. The widened spreads will make trading more costly, especially if you are scalping or day trading. And when should you resume trading? It always depends on how actively the markets wake up after holidays. The minimal starting day will be January 6th. I usually do not trade this week and just watch how the markets starts moving. I prefer to begin my trading year from Monday next week, the January 13th. Holidays seasons will be the best period for you to do the back testing and learning. Pick a trading strategy that you want to trade with in a new year and sacrifice your time to back test it on different instruments. Learn important theory and various techniques, relax and prepare your self for a new trading season. Have a great time, traders! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
13
Weekend Crypto Pulse: $BTC at $95,415 & $ETH Leading DeFi – Top Good morning, champions! ☀️ While traditional markets take a breather, crypto keeps the grind alive. 🕒 CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds strong at $95,415, still defying gravity, and CRYPTOCAP:ETH sits at $3,527, the DeFi heartbeat going strong. Weekend movers: 📈 CRYPTOCAP:AVAX up 4.5%, turning heads in the Layer-1 race. 📈 CRYPTOCAP:SOL climbing 3.2%, showing resilience in its recovery arc. Take a moment today: plan, prep, sip that coffee. 🛠️ Balance your charts with a bit of mindfulness—crypto’s a marathon, not a sprint. What’s your strategy for today’s market movers? Any hidden gems on your radar? Let’s share some insights. 💡
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DCAChampion