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Fundamental Analysis

Amer Sports (AS) Investment Analysis Company Overview: Amer Sports NYSE:AS is a leading player in the global sporting goods industry, with a strong portfolio of premium brands such as Salomon, Arc'teryx, and Wilson. The company made a notable market debut with its successful IPO in February 2024, raising $1.37 billion. This significant capital injection is expected to fuel future growth initiatives and strategic expansions. Key Growth Drivers: Successful IPO and Capital Infusion: The $1.37 billion raised from its IPO provides Amer Sports with the financial flexibility to pursue strategic investments, enhance its product offerings, and expand its global footprint. This capital influx is poised to accelerate the company’s growth trajectory, enabling it to capitalize on emerging opportunities within the sports and outdoor segments. Premium Brand Portfolio: Amer Sports boasts a diverse lineup of well-recognized and premium brands, including: Salomon (outdoor sports gear and apparel) Arc'teryx (high-performance outdoor apparel) Wilson (sports equipment, particularly known for tennis and golf) The broad portfolio allows Amer Sports to capture a wide range of consumer preferences and market segments, enhancing revenue stability and reducing dependency on any single brand. Favorable Industry Trends: The global sports and outdoor market is expected to grow at a 6.5% CAGR through 2030, driven by increasing consumer interest in health, wellness, and outdoor activities. Amer Sports is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, given its focus on high-quality products and active lifestyle brands that align with consumer demand for performance and sustainability. Strategic Partnerships Boosting Visibility: Collaborations like Wilson's partnership with the NFL have enhanced brand visibility and engagement, attracting a wider customer base and establishing consistent revenue streams. Such strategic alliances not only bolster brand recognition but also provide a steady influx of income from co-branded products, supporting long-term growth. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on Amer Sports (AS) above the $16.00-$16.50 range. The company’s solid brand portfolio, favorable market trends, and strong financial backing from its IPO position it well for sustained growth. Upside Potential: Our price target for Amer Sports is set at $25.00-$26.00, reflecting confidence in its market expansion strategies, premium product offerings, and strategic partnerships. 🚀 Amer Sports—Capitalizing on the Active Lifestyle Boom! #SportswearGrowth #OutdoorRecreation #PremiumBrands
NYSE:ASLong
by Richtv_official
Victoria's Secret (VSCO) AnalysisCompany Overview: Victoria's Secret NYSE:VSCO is undergoing a strategic transformation aimed at revitalizing its brand and capturing a larger share of the lingerie and intimate apparel market. The company is leveraging new partnerships, focusing on digital expansion, and embracing inclusivity to appeal to a broader customer base. Key Developments: Partnership with Amazon: Victoria's Secret's collaboration with Amazon represents a significant move to expand its digital footprint. By listing products on one of the world's largest e-commerce platforms, the company gains access to Amazon's vast customer base, potentially driving substantial online sales growth. This partnership enables Victoria's Secret to reach new customers who prefer online shopping, aligning with broader retail trends where e-commerce continues to take a larger share of sales. Brand Transformation and Inclusivity: The company is undergoing a brand overhaul, focusing on inclusivity and diversity. By showcasing a wider range of body types and promoting a more inclusive brand image, Victoria's Secret aims to reconnect with a broader audience, particularly Gen Z and Millennial consumers who value representation and authenticity. This strategic shift is expected to enhance the brand's market appeal, improve customer perception, and potentially boost sales and market share. International Expansion: Victoria's Secret is targeting high-growth international markets such as China and India, where demand for premium and luxury lingerie is on the rise. The expansion into these regions is a strategic effort to tap into new revenue streams and capitalize on growing consumer purchasing power. Establishing a stronger presence in these markets positions the company to benefit from increasing global demand for premium intimate apparel. New Leadership Driving Transformation: With new industry veterans in key leadership roles, including a CEO experienced in retail transformation, Victoria's Secret is set for accelerated growth. The revamped leadership team is focusing on strategic initiatives aimed at revitalizing the brand, enhancing customer experience, and driving financial performance. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on VSCO above the $27.00-$28.00 range, as the company's strategic initiatives and renewed focus on inclusivity are expected to drive growth and market expansion. Upside Potential: Our price target for Victoria's Secret is set at $45.00-$46.00, reflecting potential gains from the Amazon partnership, brand transformation efforts, and international expansion strategy. 🚀 VSCO—Reinventing the Brand and Expanding Horizons! #RetailTransformation #EcommerceGrowth #InclusivityInFashion
NYSE:VSCOLong
by Richtv_official
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 11, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair starts the new week on a softer note, although it fails to find continued selling and remains range-bound around the 1.29000 mark amid mixed fundamentals. The US Dollar (USD) is holding below the four-month high reached last week amid expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will spur inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to aggressively ease policy. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for GBP/USD, although the Bank of England's hawkish stance is helping to limit rate cuts. In fact, the Bank of England has warned that the expansive Autumn Budget presented by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to spur inflation, suggesting a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025. In addition, risk-on sentiment is helping to limit the rise of the safe-haven US Dollar and providing some support for the GBP/USD pair, allowing for some caution before making aggressive bearish bets. Investors also seem reluctant and may prefer to stand back ahead of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and US. This week's economic calendar includes UK employment data on Tuesday, US consumer inflation data and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, followed by preliminary UK Q3 GDP and US retail sales on Friday. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.29000, if the level is fixed below consider Sell positions, if the level bounces back consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURJPY BullishBias Bullish Fundamental Analysis ECB is going to reduce interest rate as expected. However, EUR Fundamentals datas are still bullish align with COT data. However Index shown bearish bias. ECB will aim for better job data for now. BOJ decided to hold interest rate. BOJ is expecting higher inflation and spending as rising wage occurred. Fundamental datas is presenting bearish bias. BOJ will not take any action under new datas is out. Price Action: Price retrace back to support level. there was an rejection from Support level. It broke the H4 resistance level. As it show the continuation of bullish movement. Price expected to retest the broken resistance level. It consolidated and broke through. Set up: Long setup Broken resistance level of H4/H1 SL below swing low TP last swing high of R:R 1:3
Long
by royschen07
Demand Surge Post-Election Towards $2690s,Imbalance Target@2720sFollowing structural supply mitigation around $2640 in response to the recent U.S. presidential election, gold prices are pushing towards the supply level in the $2690s. As the DXY strengthens, gold's upward momentum is expected to yield to further supply. Looking into the new week, there’s anticipation of an imbalance at the $2720 zone being addressed, while the area below $2660 remains unbalanced. This setup aligns with Akcapitals' hedge, guiding potential moves as market dynamics evolve . follow for more insight's , comment and boost idea . THANKS
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Ak_capitalist
CloudUsdt bullish move#cloud a token in the Solana blockchain has really created a positive reaction in the market, after a massive rise this past week from 0.3 up to 0.61... on the technical side of #cloud, we can see price created a rectangular pattern which price has broken off from, price is seen retesting the broken pattern at 0.53 support level.. right now price is sitting at a good buy level, once retest is confirmed, we should see a pump all the way upto 0.7.. #cloud on the fundental side has created a partnership with CRONOS LABS as a network validator. This partnership adds credibility to the network and its expected to accelerate technology and community growth.. this in place signals that buyers are eagerly jumping in for the next ride up.. trade wit caution and add risk management..
Long
by Trader_Anderson
BITCOIN → Is the $100K target becoming more and more realistic? BINANCE:BTCUSD is in the bull run phase and updating highs due to the excitement of the US presidential election. After 8 months, there are finally reasons for the price to come out of the prolonged accumulation. Now the distribution. BTC has one bullish driver after another as it approaches ATH: Trump's victory in the US presidential election. Then the second 0.25% Fed rate cut in this cycle Discussions about BTC as a strategic reserve. Next is the SEC. Trump promised to get rid of the head of the SEC, so the choice will be made in favor of a more loyal to cryptocurrencies person. In general, the fundamental background for cryptocurrencies is very bullish, altcoins may finally go straight to the moon. Technically, bitcoin has a key resistance of 76900 at the moment, as well as key support zones, which is worth paying attention to as the price has been forming a local accumulation for two days. Accordingly, the move may continue in the near term. Resistance levels: 76900 Support levels: 75650, 74560, 73550 The price is squeezing in front of the resistance, which may lead to a breakout. But, the liquidity is decreasing on the weekend, which may lead to a small correction, for example, to 75650 or other areas lower on the chart. We can't talk about any selling now, the reason is obvious, so we are looking for strong resistance levels (to continue the movement), or strong support levels (to bounce with the purpose of buying). The target of 100K is becoming more and more real ;) Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:BTCUSDT ;) Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
43
trump won, now whatThis is not a political analysis,idgf about who's your favourite party With that said: An easy way to run ur economy to the ground is through price controls, which was part of Harris's campaign platform. Joe did a great job and arguably saved the U.S. economy from a slump with initiatives like the infrastructure bill and the CHIPS Act. However, what concerns the average American most are the prices of gas and food. Harris's solution to these issues is a price ceiling, which is why many people felt that the orange man solution is more realistic however Tax cuts, the budget deficit, and inflation, along with tariffs, may lead the market to react positively a trend we have already observed. Inflation can drive growth for companies, which in turn boosts earnings and contributes to the US GDP growth. Additionally, the bond market is showing an upward yield curve, suggesting a liquidity preference, as money flows from risk-free investments like 10-year bonds into riskier assets such as equities or the stock market. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and efforts to reduce the balance sheet may be significant factors in this shift. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the potential outcomes of these tax cuts and policies, which could result in a labor shortage and disruption in the labor market. The inflation accompanying the tariffs could lead to economic contraction, posing risks. Still, navigating these changes will not be plain, as the central bank is likely to respond to these policies, further deepening the uncertainty. there will be also some actual improvement in terms of foreign policy which can also lead to capital flowing from outside into us markets however, any sort of policy led by wall street has historically led to disasters and we expect no difference and the taxpayers will be left with the bill tap again I do not cheer for any party or their ideologies we'll watch the same market on asymmetrical information so make ur own inference
SP:SPX
by ri_da
Dye and Durham Downward SpiralMaking acquisitions to artificially boost their numbers, their software has not improved in years. Their recently announced layoffs and "back to office" attitude will help them get costs under control, unfortunately their product will not improve and they will have to increasingly rely on sales tactics and lock-in, an Oracle-lite strategy where the current customers find it difficult to switch and stay with the product for 5-10 years while new customers are increasingly harder to find. They'll end up at $7, we've seen this story play out for other software companies where the product offering hardly improves and the customer pipeline slows down. Then they'll get bought out by a larger player, same strategy as DNDT but at a larger scale.
TSX:DNDShort
by electronicSnow83795
BTC Suckers rallyFollowing a very similar pattern from a few years ago, it resonates with me very clearly that this is a sucker's rally. Either I'm right or wrong, it's a technical bet; with 0 fundamentals taken into account. Macroeconomic health is not looking too good still and we need to look deeper to be sure about the market we're taking long at. If everything falls into place, we should see a net 3x value from current bottom, probably 40-60k. Closest bet to close would be there.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by nixholas
1
So, what happens next? I am not sure if everyone is wondering the same as me, but after the election results and seeing the PA reaction, I wondered “So…. What now?”. A challenging and interesting question that I don’t think I or anyone can answer with the upmost confidence. But I wanted to take the time to write out a post that combines some statistics, a recap of my YTD ideas on SPY and where we are now, and what the future could look like. I also hope to provide some perspective into the PA. I know for many of you, trading is new and a new exposure. For me, who has been trading since 2018, this year has felt like the most bullish year I have ever traded. But when I look at the objective data, it actually spells a different story. So make yourself comfortable, its probably going to be a long post! Forging into another era of Trump I will save any political opinions for elsewhere. But its interesting that Trump has been re-elected as my nascence in trading arrived under the Trump’s presidency. And interestingly enough, my indoctrination into trading a Trump market was trading a bear market! I started trading during the 2018 bear correction when the market saw an initial flash crash that was pretty quick. It rallied back up to make another ATH and then did a longer bear correction where it actually corrected below the 500 day mean: As well, this was a mean reversion on the log linear scale: As a personal anecdote, I am still very much a permabear, despite always shilling long more or less in the current climate, and I feel like this permabear mentality arrived from the first market I traded being a bear market. From 2016 to 2020, the market had about 4 crashes, 1 bear market/correction and the rest was all bull market. No real difference from any other 4 year period. The only major difference during 2016 – 2020 period were the crashes were a bit shallower than other crashes traditionally, with the average being about 11% vs overall average being about 13% for SPY’s nascence. What this means going forward? We will likely see a few crashes and at least one bear correction in the coming years. However, perhaps the extent of the crashes and corrections will be muted, if, under the new presidency, USA is able to raise its GDP and boost economic production, which happened during the 2016 – 2020 term. What about the Statistics? Taking fundamentals and politics out of the equation and simply looking at what the market can tell us about itself, we can see some other interesting tidbits. Either before continuing or after reading, I suggest you check out a previous post I did about the outlook for the S&P based on historical behaviour, it turned out to be spot on: Let’s look at standardized returns on SPY: SPY’s current annual return is 0.27. We are not, by any stretch of the imagination, at historically high return levels. But, close.. ish. As you can see from the information in the chart above, the historically high return happened during the tech bubble and was 0.38, or 38%. SPY currently rests at 27%. If we take the average returns in general, no filtering for bearish or bullish years, we get 0.10 (rounded), or 10%. The average return of only bullish years is 18%. If SPY were to close at the average this year, we would see SPY retrace back to 557. The median is 19%, which would be a retrace to 561. Other Statistics applicable One thing that I have used a bit this year is a Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations take the normal distribution and randomly assign values from the normal distribution over x number of simulations. The simulation I have used consists of 200 simulations, using 2023 data, and plotting the average of the central tendencies: If we zoom in a bit closer, we can see where the simulations all agree of dips (red) and rallies (green): If we want to take the simulation in totality, it shows that SPY could, theoretically, see a high this year of 621 to 650: If you remember my earlier post, the annual ARIMA for SPY put the 80% confidence level at 591, and the 95% confidence level at 621. So 621 could indeed be a target observed into EOY. Probability and more probability! Let’s talk about probability for a second. To ascertain a more accurate assessment of probability, I am going to use data for SPX. Keep in mind, SPX and SPY track the same thing, so the returns will be identical. Because we are standardizing returns, they will also be the same value. Just to put your mind at ease, SPY’s approximate returns YTD are: 0.2634936. SPX’s are 0.2669222. The difference is statistically insignificant. So using SPX data, which we have since 1878 ish, let’s calculate the probability of closing at or above where we are now (>= 26%). The probability of SPX closing with 26% returns is 15%.The probability of SPX closing at 18% is around 26%. What this means is, we can’t say that it is likely that SPY will maintain these levels into EOY. Its not impossible, 15% probability is actually pretty big, a bit bigger than I expected. But the odds favour more a more reasonable close in the 18% area. If we want to take it a step further, and calculate what is the probability that SPX/SPY closes on a High. The probability that SPX will close on a high is 16%. Again, I am a little shook by this high percent! But obviously its not as likely as if it were to be 50% or 80%. Forecasts Don’t worry, we are nearing the end of this post. If you are reading to this point, thanks! I appreciate your interest in my random tangents of applying stats to markets! I want to briefly touch on Forecasts and outlooks. The market is naturally bullish. The U.S. has a new president that tends to have an emphasis on a strong economy. What is the most likely forecast? This is a complex question. I can accomplish a general forecast through using algorithms, but it doesn’t really take into account the economic influence that may be at play if we do see a strong economy into 2025. Remember I indicated that during 2016 – 2020, we did have crashes and bear market corrections, but they were shallower than average, likely mitigated by the strong economic policy during that presidency. Using a basic, machine learning algorithm to forecast the end result. So what I am going to do is use SPX again, because again more history, and run a forecast based on this period here: And I am forecasting it over the next 252 days, or 1 trading year from Friday (November 8th, 2024). The result actually puts us back into 2022, with this being the scaled plot of the forecast: And lastly, Targets! So, let’s quickly talk targets. Remember, our ARIMA 95% level on the year is 621. That means, 95% of closes should fall below 621. In addition, we also have a high probability modelled target at 564. This is hit > 85% of the time. And lastly, based on a seasonality assessment, our most similar year is 2021. This puts our scaled annual high at approximately 601. The targets we should absolutely see into EOY are: 564 and 601. The sequence of events remain up for debate. Conclusion: So, this is a long post, let me just give you the cliff notes of what to take away from it: Cap on the year should be 621. Retracement target should be around 564. High of the year should be around 601. There is about a 15% chance we close the year at this position or higher. There is about a 26% chance we close below this level but at or above 557. Overall assessment reveals a possible correction/crash. Its unlikely we see much lower than 564, even getting to 564 seems rather impossible at this point, but crashes come swift and unexpected I will be honest, I am not sure we see too much downside before EOY. The market is on a cocaine fueled rocket that shows no signs of slowing. I “feel” that its just going to go up until there is a reality check into the following year. But this is not based on the objective data, just my own “feelings” which are not all that reliable, haha. That’s it everyone! Thanks for reading, safe trades and happy rest of the trading year!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
5
COIN Ready To Run?In looking at the progress for Coinbase, it appears that NASDAQ:COIN is setting up nicely. With the euphoria around Bitcoin mining in the USA and the Bitcoin prices rising along with other Cryptocurrencies, Coinbase could potentially be ready to rise as well. The current forecast for Coinbase is at $345 per share which is a fair value considering that it has positioned itself as a leader in the industry with their trading platform, their wallet, their exchange platform and their ability to make the entrance into the crypto space seamless and easy to understand with their learn portion of the app. Currently NASDAQ:COIN is testing prior support/resistance areas and once it breaks through them, it should continue to make its way higher with time. The company has a great deal of cash in case of a down turn which will allow it to build out more research and design, and acquire new projects as they present themselves. This company has over 19% company directors owning it, which is a great sign that they have skin in the game and expect it to do well for themselves as well. I take that as a bet on the company. The statistics for NASDAQ:COIN has a market cap or net worth of $67.78 billion. The enterprise value is $64.55 billion. In which the company has $7.72 billion in cash and $4.50 billion in debt, giving a net cash position of $3.23 billion or $12.89 per share. Return on equity (ROE) is 21.32% and return on invested capital (ROIC) is 7.66%. In looking at the public sentiment for Bitcoin and a more stable system than an inflated fiat, and the versatility of the crypto currencies, people are looking to Coinbase to allow them the ability to exchange and hold their Bitcoin and other currencies. In looking at the charts, the time frame continuity has shown this stock to be up over the year with plenty of upside. It gapped up after the election results and that gap will need to be filled to fill all those open orders from that time period but, who knows when that pull back will come. It is in an uptrend at the moment.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by GlennTrading
Will ETH repeat BTC's strong upward move?ETH in a key place, currently fighting with strong resistance at the level of $3,247, this is a key place before the upward movement to around $3,561, which is the last place before the movement towards a very strong resistance zone from $3,948 to $4,102, which is a key place before the establishment of the new ATH. Looking the other way, there is currently a strong upward movement, which may give a moment of relief and here there is support at $2,816, then there is strong support at $2,546, and then the price could go back even to around $2,117, which in the current situation is an unlikely move at this point.
Long
by cryptodailyuk