Dowjones Potential ShortRisk-off sentiment dominates the market amid tightening monetary policies and rising inflation, fueled by Trump's policies. For now, I see a bearish outlook, and this is a bearish setup on Dow Jones that I'm watching closely.
Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin DominationHistorical cycle data on the indicator points to the possible end of bitcoin's dominance growth. This may indicate the beginning of capital reallocation in favor of altcoins. At least until May 7 we will have a short-term altcoin season, but if we are lucky, even until the end of May.
⚠️ Caution Amid Geopolitical Factors
While a temporary altcoin season may be on the horizon, it's essential to consider broader economic factors. Ongoing trade tensions, particularly involving the U.S., could introduce volatility into the markets. Such geopolitical uncertainties might render the current altcoin rally a bull trap, with potential downturns in the summer months.
BTCUSD 15 M ForecastHello guys, I hope you are well now let me tell you that yesterday we hit the target in 15 minutes, you can see it, and the target we are giving now will remain our target from the order block bearish to the bullish order block.
Okta: Strong In a Weak Market?Okta has been quietly fighting higher, and some traders may see opportunity in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher weekly lows since November. That contrasts sharply with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, which have made lower weekly lows.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) began the year by rising above the 100-day SMA. A “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA followed in February. The next month, the 100-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. That sequence, with the faster SMAs above the slower ones, may reflect a positive long-term trend. (See the circles.)
Speaking of the 100-day SMA, OKTA is trying to hold that line this week.
Finally, bullish price gaps following the last two quarterly reports may reflect improved fundamental sentiment in the cybersecurity company.
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Back Forty Tokenization: Financing OpportunityAnalysis of Gold Resource Corporation's Back Forty Mine Tokenization Potential
Introduction
The Gold Resource Corporation (GRC) acquired the Back Forty project in Michigan through its purchase of Aquila Resources in 2021. Despite significant gold, zinc, silver, copper, and lead reserves, the project has faced decades-long regulatory challenges. This analysis explores the potential for tokenization as an alternative financing strategy, examining market precedents, technological conditions, and the specific circumstances of GRC.
The Back Forty Project Strategy and Challenges
Geology and Economic Potential of the Michigan Deposit
The Back Forty site, spanning 55 km², features sulfide ore deposits typical of the North American Precambrian Shield region. The presence of 287 million pounds of copper and 25.4 million pounds of lead is strategically important given global demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and infrastructure investments. According to GRC's 2022 feasibility study, the mine could produce 95,000 ounces of gold and 700,000 ounces of silver annually. However, its proximity to the Menominee River (150 feet away) has raised significant environmental concerns.
Regulatory Barriers and Community Resistance
Michigan's Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) issued permits in 2018, which were repeatedly invalidated by federal courts between 2020 and 2023, primarily due to risks of acid mine drainage from sulfide mining. Cultural and spiritual objections from the local Menominee Indian Tribe further complicate the situation. GRC's 2024 annual report indicates that Part 632 mining permit and wetlands permitting processes will cause an additional 12-18 months of delay.
Tokenization as an Alternative Financing Model
Application of Digital Assets in the Commodities Market
Blockchain-based tokenization allows for the creation of digital representations of physical resources, which can be traded on or alongside traditional exchanges. The AMA-AMBIOGEO Joint Venture announced in September 2024 the tokenization of 474 tons of S-K 1300 certified gold reserves, valued at approximately $4.6 billion. Models suggest that tokenization can reduce capital acquisition costs by 30-40% compared to traditional banking, while providing a liquidity premium estimated at 15-25%.
Technical Implementation Considerations
The tokenization framework developed by NatGold Digital Ltd. involves three key elements:
Geological Audit: Independent expert validation (e.g., SRK Consulting) in compliance with JORC or NI 43-101 standards.
Smart Contract Architecture: Tokens based on Ethereum ERC-3643 standards, automatically managing ownership rights and dividend payments.
Regulatory Compliance: Private placement under SEC Regulation D 506(c) and Regulation S, with MiCA-compliant disclosure obligations.
Tokenization Scenarios for GRC
For the Back Forty project, three potential tokenization models are considered:
1. Full Reserve-Backed Token
Using 80% of the audited 1.1 million oz gold reserve as collateral, tokens would be pegged to the gold spot price. At the April 23, 2025, gold price of $2,350/oz, this would represent $2.068 billion in collateral. The issuance size could be between $500 million and $700 million, representing a 25-35% equity stake.
2. Future Production Pre-Financing (Streaming Agreement Token)
Token holders would receive a share of future gold production, similar to traditional metal streaming agreements. This structure could attract investors with a 10-15% discount while allowing GRC to maintain operational control.
3. Hybrid Bond-Token Structure
A 5-7 year bond with gold-price-linked interest payments, where principal repayment depends on the mine's permitting status. This model would reduce short-term liabilities on GRC's balance sheet.
Market Precedents and Risk Factors
Lessons from the AMA-AMBIOGEO Supernova Project
Launched in September 2024, this tokenization program involved $4.6 billion in gold reserves, with 70% institutional investor participation. Key challenges included:
Technical Risk: Water supply issues at the Brazilian Riacho Seco site increased planned CAPEX by 23%.
Regulatory Risk: Compliance with SEC Regulation S and Wyoming LLC structure required 14 months of legal preparation.
NatGold Digital's Back Forty Tokenization Initiative
NatGold announced plans in April 2025 to tokenize 30% of the Back Forty gold reserves, backing tokens 1:1 with physical gold. However, this model carries significant risks:
Michigan's mining laws (Part 632) currently do not recognize tokenized collateral as a permitting prerequisite.
Legal objections from the Menominee Tribe could further complicate the situation if tokenization is seen as an indirect means of project implementation.
Legal and Regulatory Environment Analysis
U.S. Regulatory Framework
The SEC's 2023 Digital Asset Securities Framework classifies tokens backed by natural resources as securities, requiring Form D registration and sale to accredited investors. Michigan's proposed SB 214 bill in 2024 would allow retail investors to purchase tokens up to a 5% portfolio share.
European Union Regulations (MiCA)
The Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, effective December 2024, offers two options for GRC:
Low-Volume Issuance: Simplified disclosure requirements for annual trading volumes not exceeding €5 million.
Institutional Issuance: Sales restricted to qualified investors, potentially exempting the need for a prospectus.
Economic Efficiency and Risk Assessment
Cost-Benefit Analysis
For a $500 million token issuance, the estimated cost structure is:
Cost Item Amount (USD) Percentage Share
Legal and Compliance 18M 3.6%
Geological Audit 4.5M 0.9%
Technological Infrastructure 12M 2.4%
Marketing and Placement 25M 5.0%
Other 5.5M 1.1%
Total 65M 13.0%
While traditional bank financing offers a cost efficiency of 7-9%, the higher initial costs of tokenization could be offset by future liquidity benefits (e.g., secondary market trading).
Risk Factor Evaluation
Resource Certainty: The 10% uncertainty margin in JORC-coded "Measured" gold reserves could affect token value stability.
Price Risk: A 20% fluctuation in gold prices could result in a 40% decrease in token value without margin call mechanisms.
Regulatory Changes: The SEC's 2025 proposal for stricter stablecoin regulations could indirectly impact resource-backed tokens.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The Gold Resource Corporation's Back Forty project has tokenization potential, particularly based on models presented by NatGold. However, successful implementation requires:
Independent geological audits by third parties
A robust legal framework at both Michigan state and federal levels
Institutional investor participation to ensure initial token liquidity
Recommended steps for GRC:
Pilot Project Launch: Tokenize 10% of the Back Forty gold reserves (110,000 oz) as a trial by 2026.
Regulatory Negotiations: Engage with the SEC and Michigan state to recognize token-based collateral.
Technological Partnership: Collaborate with fintech companies like Tokeny to develop blockchain infrastructure.
Tokenization can serve not only as an alternative financing source but also as a strategic tool for GRC to enhance long-term value and mitigate environmental risks. With the digital asset market projected to reach $4.2 trillion by 2025, tokenizing the Back Forty could provide significant first-mover advantages in the digital transformation of mining.
GBP/USD Faces Strong Resistance and Bearish PressureGBP/USD Faces Strong Resistance and Bearish Pressure
GBP/USD tested a key daily zone from September 2024 but faced strong selling pressure, dropping nearly 190 pips.
One reason for this bearish move is President Trump stepping back from his threats to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which had briefly unsettled investor confidence in U.S. assets. However, as European trading began, most of those earlier gains faded.
This setup remains risky because GBP/USD often doesn’t respond well to sell signals. However, if Trump reaches a deal with China, we could see a more decisive bearish move, as indicated on the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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XAUUSD 1h ForecastHello guys I hope you are well let me tell you that we are going to sell strongly from here and our target will be 3260
Trump sends out a major signal of tariffs, gold prices plummet
📌 Driving events
On Tuesday evening, local time, US President Trump said that he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Trump also said that tariffs on Chinese imports would be "substantially" reduced from the current 145%.
In addition, Trump said that he would not take "tough measures" against China during the tariff negotiations, and was "optimistic" that he could reach an agreement with it "fairly quickly" and "substantially reduce" the huge 145% tariff imposed on Chinese imports.
Because of President Trump's erratic tariff policy changes, investors' confidence in the outlook for the US economy continues to weaken.
📊Commentary analysis
The slowdown and decline in gold prices are inevitable. The profit-taking mentality and the cooling of news on tariffs and Russian-Ukrainian military operations led to a decline in gold prices.
💰Strategy Package
Short position:
Actively participate at 3350 points, profit target is around 3290 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
The gold market suddenly "changed its face"Gold plunged down from the high of 3500 yesterday, mainly due to the fact that US President Trump said at the swearing-in ceremony of Atkins, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, on Tuesday local time that he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, although he was disappointed that the Fed did not cut interest rates faster. The cooling of risk aversion directly affected the gold price, which once fell to $3366, and then closed near 3382, with the largest drop of 134 points on Tuesday. This wave of gold correction is still continuing. After opening today, it fell straight to 3315. Although it has completely recovered the decline, I think the short position still has continuity, so today's operation strategy is still mainly high-altitude.
Gold is currently trading below 3357. There are signs of a rebound in gold prices at the beginning of the European session. Now the upper suppression level can be moved down. The short-term suppression reference is 3330 here, followed by the second highest point on the way up to 3357; the lower support focuses on the vicinity of 3285, and after effectively breaking it, it can focus on the vicinity of 3245. Now the gold price is trading near the Asian low of 3315. The prudent operation idea is to short at 3331 to protect the gold price near 3320 and wait for the gold price to reach 3285. After the break, wait for the rebound to 3300 and then go short to 3245. It is not recommended to participate in long orders.
Gold is down 100 points, but it still remains high and short.Technically speaking:
① Yesterday's daily line hit a high and fell back to close with a hanging neck line with a long upper shadow, which represents a short-term peak signal. Today's opening opened low and rebounded to repair the gap, which can determine the bottom support in the short term. Therefore, today's range has become a large range of 3313-3500.
From the daily Fibonacci retracement extension line, the current support is around 3291, that is, the range of 3291-3371, and the middle 0.236 is located at 3370.
②The 4-hour indicator macd is dead cross at a high level and runs with large volume, and the smart indicator sto is running near oversold, which means that the 4-hour market is still volatile and weak. In the short term, pay attention to the middle track and the moving average MA5 and MA10 corresponding to the 3403-3358-3404 line, and the short-term moving average MA30 corresponds to the 3350 line. From the 4-hour perspective, the current range is 3291-3371.
③ The current MACD of the hourly line is dead cross with shrinking volume, and the dynamic indicator STO is hooked upward, which represents the rebound trend of the hourly line. At present, we focus on the MA60 moving average, the middle track and the MA30 moving average, which currently correspond to the 3397-3354-3405 line, but will gradually move down over time.
In summary: short-selling in the area near the upper pressure of 3321-3351-3371, and maintaining high altitude as the main theme
Summary: In the short term, the high altitude callback is the main focus, and the key support level is arranged in batches for long orders to follow the long-term trend.
long for 1 Year investor (EGX:SUGR)Delta Sugar Company (EGX:SUGR)
On 23th April 2025 close at 47.17 EGP/Share
Overview
Delta Sugar Company engages in the manufacture and sale of sugar beets in Egypt. The company was founded in 1978.
📊 Financial Snapshot
✅ Strengths:
• EPS (Trailing): 7.60 → Solid earnings power.
• PE Ratio: 6.22 → Undervalued vs. market.
• Book Value/Share: 23.71 EGP → P/B ratio ≈ 2 → Moderately priced on asset basis.
• Strong ROE: 39.38%
• ROIC: 22.22% → Efficient capital use.
• Net cash position: +557.5 million → No leverage risk, ample liquidity.
⚠️ Weaknesses
• Free Cash Flow (FCF): -181.79 million EGP → Negative FCF raises sustainability concerns
• Operating Cash Flow (OCF): -38.57 million EGP → Core operations not currently cash generative
Fair Value Estimates:
• Cairo Financial Holding: 71.80 EGP
• Ostoul Securities Brokerage
• Sector-based Book Value Multiple 76.58 EGP/Share
• Sector-based PE Multiple 98.069 EGP/Share
📐 Technical Analysis
• Pattern Analysis: Currently forming a falling wedge pattern, typically a bullish signal.
• Elliott Wave Target (TP1): 94 EGP/share, as illustrated.
Walt Disney LongWalt Disney
Fundamental:
+ Trading at 10Y P/E low = 27 ($86), while average P/E >50 ($180)
+ Expected EPS is likely double, making with average P/E the price to reach $280
+ EPS and Revenue is steadily growing
0 Fair P/E (Lynch) 15x ($45) however the price almost never goes there.
0 # of Shares is fluctuating but no major dilution
Technnical:
+ Below 200D VWMA
+ Bullish volume increase, while Bearish is less
+ At Yearly ATR low
0 Oscillator: 1W Reversal although further downward move possible
- Volume profile: Below PoC, Potential downside to 50 is possible
Entry:
- E1: 80 = $1x
- E2: 60 = $2x
- E3: 50 = $1x
Take:
- 125
- 150
- 200
- 250!
Stop:
< 50
WTI Crude 23-Apr 2025WTI showed some move up after some headlines related to sanctions imposed by the US on Iran.
Potential scenarios to monitor:
• The inability to sustain a move above the $65 level may suggest that bullish momentum remains limited, which could potentially open the door for a revisit of the previous support area near $55.
• A confirmed move and stabilization above the $65 mark may indicate scope for a continued recovery toward the $72 area.
• Around the $72 level, price action may face a decision point — a lack of further upward momentum could see a pullback toward $65, while sustained buying interest might support a move toward the $80 area.
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Tensions in the Pharma Sector and Signs of U.S. StagflationBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The U.S. biopharmaceutical industry may soon face significant regulatory changes. According to sector sources, the Trump administration is evaluating a proposal to tie U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices available in other developed countries. This initiative, viewed by companies such as Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) as a direct threat to innovation, could redefine the global balance of the pharmaceutical sector.
Macroeconomic Outlook: Stagflation Warning
On the macroeconomic front, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has warned that despite current signs of consumer activity, the negative effects on growth are expected to intensify in the second half of the year. Nathan Sheets, the bank’s Chief Economist, points to rising risks of stagflation, in a context marked by declining confidence and renewed criticism from Donald Trump towards Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Defense Sector: Tariff Impact
Raytheon Technologies (NYSE: RTX) has stated that new tariffs proposed by the Trump administration could have a negative impact of up to $850 million on its 2025 earnings. Nevertheless, the company exceeded market expectations in its latest quarterly results and reaffirmed its annual guidance.
Shareholder Reshuffle at BP
Activist fund Elliott has acquired a 5.006% stake in BP plc (LON: BP), surpassing the regulatory threshold in the United Kingdom and becoming the company’s second-largest shareholder—behind BlackRock (9.2%) and ahead of Vanguard (4.95%). This strategic move reflects the increasing shareholder pressure on major oil companies.
Key Events of the Day
Notable economic indicators and corporate earnings scheduled for today include:
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• S&P Global Services PMI
• Earnings reports from: Philip Morris (PM), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), ServiceNow Inc. (NOW), Boston Scientific (BSX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Boeing (BA), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
These releases are expected to have a significant impact on markets, particularly across the consumer, technology, and defense sectors.
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Discipline in Trading: The Indicator That Works 100% of the TimeEvery trader has that one folder — “Winning Indicators,” “Secret Scripts,” or the iconic “Final Strategy v12_REAL_THIS_ONE_WORKS.” It's where we hoard indicators like Pokémon, convinced the next RSI+MACD+SMA combo tweak will finally reveal the holy grail of trading.
Spoiler: it won’t. Because the real indicator that works — actually works — isn’t on your chart. It’s not in a TradingView script. It’s not even on your screen.
But it’s there — etched into your trade history, tattooed into your losses, and reflected in your ability (or inability) to stop yourself from clicking “buy” because Elon Musk tweeted a goat emoji.
It’s called discipline . And it’s the only thing in trading that has a 100% hit rate… if you let it.
Let’s talk about why discipline isn’t just a virtue — it’s the foundation of every successful trader you admire. And why, ironically, it’s forged in the moments you want to throw your monitor out the window.
👋 Everyone’s a Genius — Until the Market Slaps You
When things are going well, discipline feels unnecessary. You enter a trade on a hunch, it flies. You skip the stop loss, and price reverses right where you “felt” it would. You’re up three trades in a row, so clearly you’ve transcended markets and deserve your own hedge fund. Right?
Until you don’t. And the one time you triple down on a loser “because it always bounces”… it doesn’t. And suddenly you're not a genius — you’re Googling how to recover a blown account and wondering if that crypto bro who offered signals still has his DMs open.
The reality is that everyone trades well in good times — bulls make money in rising markets and bears make money in falling markets. But real traders are made in the bad times. That’s where discipline is forged.
🧐 No Pain, No Gain
Here’s the deal: discipline is not something you're born with. It’s built, brick by painful brick, on the smoldering ruins of your worst trades.
The overleveraged EUR/USD short you held through an ECB rate hike? Discipline.
The meme stock you bought at the top because your barista mentioned it? Discipline.
The four back-to-back trades you entered on revenge mode after getting stopped out? Discipline — with a side of therapy.
These moments suck. But they’re also where the learning happens. You don’t develop discipline from your wins. You develop it from losses that leave a mark. The kind of mark you think about while brushing your teeth. The kind that whispers: “maybe follow the plan next time.”
🤝 Success Leaves Clues
You’ve probably heard the phrase “plan your trade and trade your plan” so many times it’s lost all meaning. But it’s the foundation of discipline. Not because rules are fun, but because rules are the only thing that can protect you from… well, yourself.
Let’s be honest — if left to your own devices, you run the risk of:
Entering too early because “it looks like it’s going to move.”
Exiting too late because “it might come back.”
Increasing the leverage because “I’m due for a win.”
Successful traders are those who follow a disciplined, rule-based approach to trading. Discipline says no. It says “this is the plan” and makes you stick to it — even when your ego is telling you to wing it. Discipline doesn’t care about your feelings. It cares about consistency. And that’s what makes it powerful.
🎯 Hedge Fund Bros Who Didn’t Win by Binge-Clicking
Let’s talk about those who actually did launch a fund — and didn’t blow it up in three months. Stanley Druckenmiller, former lead portfolio manager for George Soros’s Quantum Fund who later went on to launch his own Duquesne family office, famously said:
“The key to making money in markets is to have an opinion and to bet it big. But only when the odds are heavily in your favor.”
Notice what he didn’t say: “Click as many buttons as possible and hope it works out.”
Druckenmiller didn’t trade because he was bored. He waited. He watched. And when his setup came, he struck with discipline. Not with fear. Not with greed. With process.
If one of the greatest macro traders of all time had the patience to wait for his edge, maybe you don’t need to scalp every green candle on the 1-minute chart.
Ray Dalio — the one who built Bridgewater into a hedge fund juggernaut — doesn’t sugarcoat it: trading is hard. And mistakes are inevitable. Discipline, Dalio says, is what turns mistakes into evolution. His famous mantra?
“Pain + Reflection = Progress.”
He built a company culture (and a personal philosophy) around radical transparency — writing down every mistake, analyzing every trade, and building systems that override ego.
Most traders experience pain. Very few pause to reflect. Fewer still build processes to avoid making the same mistake twice. So next time you get stopped out for the third time in a row, don’t curse the chart. Open your journal. Write it down. Check what you missed. That’s what turns amateurs into professionals.
👀 Discipline in Trading: How It Actually Looks
Discipline isn’t glamorous. You won’t post it on Instagram (maybe it's good for LinkedIn, though). But here’s what it looks like in the wild:
Passing on a trade that doesn’t check all the boxes — even though you’re “pretty sure it’ll work.”
Taking a small win and moving on, even when your gut says to hold and “let it ride.”
Staying flat on FOMC day because you know news candles have a personal vendetta against your stop-losses.
Journaling a bad trade and owning the mistake. No excuses. Just honesty.
💪 How to Build Discipline
Building discipline isn’t about becoming a robot. It’s about creating a process that works even when your emotions don’t.
Here’s how to start:
Journal everything : Not just your trades, but your thoughts before and after. Discipline grows in awareness.
Have a checklist: Make it stupidly simple. If a trade doesn’t check every box, don’t take it.
Pre-set your risk: Before the trade. Not after. You’re not negotiating with yourself mid-trade.
Set trade limits: Three trades per day. One setup per session. Whatever keeps you from spiraling.
Take breaks: If you’re chasing losses, walk away. The markets will be there tomorrow. Will you?
📌 Final Thought: Why Discipline Works
You can have the best tools, the slickest chart setup, and the strongest trade ideas. But if you can’t follow your own rules, you won’t go far.
Discipline isn’t flashy. It doesn’t promise 1,000% returns or viral content. It just works. Quietly. Relentlessly. Predictably.
And when the market turns — because it always does — discipline is what will keep you standing.
Because it’s not the indicator that matters. It’s the trader using it.
So, be honest—where has discipline made (or broken) your trading? And what’s your best tip for sticking to the plan when your brain wants to do anything but?
GOLD sell setup 15mHello! Friends,
Greetings. Please leave a Like if you like the idea.
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GOLD: A Complex Market OutlookGOLD: A Complex Market Outlook
Gold may continue rising with the dominant trend, but the situation isn’t straightforward—it’s more intricate than it appears.
So far, gold has found strong support around 3284.50. If this level holds, the price could climb further, as discussed in the video. However, if gold breaks below 3284.50, it could signal further downside.
With multiple possibilities in play, it’s up to you to decide how to position yourself. The market is presenting a more complex picture than it seems at first glance.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you!
Previous analysis:
BTCUSDT Reaches Critical Volume Zone: Potential Reversal?**Executive Summary:**
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is currently testing one of the most sensitive areas on its macro volume profile: the 96,000 to 96,500 USDT range. This is a historically significant resistance zone marked by institutional distribution, aligning with a major wall on the VPVR. The current structure suggests a potential buyer exhaustion and opens a highly calculated tactical short opportunity.
---
**Macro Technical Context:**
From the 85,000 USDT base, BTC has rallied with strong institutional confluence:
- Rising Open Interest (new capital, not just a squeeze)
- Sustained positive cumulative delta
- Real volume accompanying all breakouts
The current move has pushed price directly into the most significant volume resistance level since early 2024.
---
**Macroeconomic Backdrop (April 2025):**
Recent global developments add additional layers of complexity:
- The IMF has downgraded global growth forecasts to 2.8% amid aggressive US tariff policies, sparking fears of global economic slowdown.
- Inflation is decelerating slowly, but financial stability risks are increasing, especially in emerging markets with high debt exposure.
- The US economy is under pressure, with reduced 2025 growth projections (1.8%) and potential recession indicators.
Despite this bearish macro backdrop, BTC has acted as a partial hedge, with capital flows possibly seeking alternative stores of value amidst fiat instability.
However, macro headwinds should not be ignored — any surge in risk-off sentiment or liquidity contraction could catalyze aggressive profit-taking.
---
**Area of Interest: 96,200 – 96,600 USDT**
This is a zone where:
- VPVR shows dense prior institutional activity
- Previous breakouts failed
- Potential bull trap setup is likely
---
**Tactical Playbook: Institutional Reactive Short**
**Entry:** Sell Limit at 96,500
**Stop Loss:** 96,950 (above local liquidity)
**TP1:** 94,800 (prior volume cluster)
**TP2:** 93,300 (pre-squeeze area)
**Risk/Reward:** 1:3.2
**Activation Criteria:**
- OI begins to drop within the zone
- Delta turns neutral or negative after failed breakout
- Volume spikes with no follow-through
---
**Retracement Scenarios to Watch**
Even if the short setup plays out, it may not signal trend reversal but rather a healthy retracement within an ongoing bullish structure.
**Expected retracement zones:**
- 94,800 – former breakout zone
- 93,300 – pre-squeeze structure
These areas align with VWAP anchors and previous institutional footprints. If price returns to these zones and OI holds or rises, they offer excellent long re-entry opportunities.
However, if BTC drops below 92k with collapsing OI and negative delta, a larger trend shift may be in play.
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**Cold Read: Can BTC Retrace Further?**
Yes, and that’s not only possible — it may be technically healthy.
BTC has rallied +13% from 85k to 96k in under 36h. That’s steep. While Open Interest is climbing and delta is still positive, price has now deviated far above both daily and weekly VWAP anchors.
Technically, this creates a reversion risk. If we begin to see exhaustion signals at 96.5k (stalling delta, volume spikes with no follow-through, and flat or declining OI), a pullback becomes not just plausible, but strategic for institutions.
Important: This does *not* invalidate the uptrend. It simply opens room for tactical reloads near 93–94k.
Only if price breaks 92k with clear unwind do we entertain full trend reversal.
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**Invalidation Triggers:**
- Consolidation above 97,000 with rising OI
- Aggressive delta returns on breakout continuation
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**Conclusion:**
This setup presents a high-asymmetry counter-trend opportunity, but it requires disciplined execution. Only act with confirmed confluence. If invalidated, the structure supports continuation toward 99,000+.
Traders must also consider macroeconomic pressures that could weigh on risk appetite and crypto liquidity. Meanwhile, pullbacks to key VWAP zones around 93–94k could offer tactical reloads in favor of the prevailing trend.
Stay sharp. The market doesn't care about opinions—only data.
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**Author:** Pôncio Pacífico
Ex-institutional, now underground.
"Read the flow. Everything else is noise."
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The Day AheadWednesday 23rd April 2025
Key economic data includes April flash PMIs for the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, and the Eurozone. These are important indicators of economic momentum and inflation pressures, with potential impact on FX, rates, and equities. In the US, March new home sales will provide a read on housing market strength. The UK reports March public finances, which could influence gilt markets and sterling. In the Eurozone, February trade balance and construction output data are on deck, offering insights into trade dynamics and sector-specific activity.
Central bank focus is high. The Fed releases its Beige Book and features speakers including Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, and Hammack. Markets will be listening closely for signals on rate expectations and regional economic trends. From the ECB, Knot, Villeroy, and Lane are scheduled to speak, potentially influencing eurozone rate expectations. From the Bank of England, Bailey, Pill, and Breeden will offer comments that could affect sterling and rate outlooks.
Earnings are heavy and span key sectors. Notable names reporting include IBM, ServiceNow, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Boeing, GE Vernova, Chipotle, O’Reilly Auto, Thermo Fisher, Boston Scientific, NextEra Energy, Newmont, Philip Morris, AT&T, General Dynamics, and Volvo. This mix provides important reads across tech, industrials, healthcare, and consumer sectors.
On the fixed income side, the US Treasury will auction 2-year floating rate notes and 5-year notes. Watch for yield curve movements and demand signals, particularly given the dense schedule of Fed speakers.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The president's words instantly changed the gold market
📌 Driving events
Today, Wednesday, Trump said that although he was frustrated that the Federal Reserve had not been able to lower interest rates faster, he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
The remarks marked a huge shift in Trump's attitude. He has recently stepped up his criticism of Powell and refused to rule out the possibility of taking the unprecedented step of firing Powell.
After Trump said he had no intention of firing Powell, the situation between Russia and Ukraine slowed down, and the market's optimism about the possible easing of trade tensions heated up, U.S. stock index futures soared and the dollar strengthened.
Asian spot gold opened directly at a gap down on Wednesday, and then the decline widened further, reaching a low of $3,293. It is only $10 away from the 3,283 support line I predicted before.
📊Comment analysis
Gold has some signs of a head and shoulders top, and the current shoulder position is almost here at 3,340-50.
So, if there is a chance to pull back to 3,340-50 next. The support line is still around 3282.
Be sure to enter the market and short without hesitation.
💰Strategy Package
Short position:
Actively participate at 3350 points, profit target is around 3290 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
BTCUSD sell setup 15mHello! Friends,
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BTCUSD possible next move after proper breakdown of this curve line✅
CAD/JPY we reached bottom levels , great time to collect value!Hi guys we are going to take a look at the CAD/JPY Pair!
Technical analisys -
Currently the pair has reached a bottom level around the 101 zone whichwe can see big support from buyers, additionally the MACD is finishing a down turn momentum formulating a cross over towards an Ascending Channel , the RSI is sitting at neutral / oversold areas on 2H and 4H timeframes
Fundamentals - We are still looking into the monetary policy overlooeked from BoJ and additionally the expected economical data from Canada in the eyes of strong Retail Sales.
📌 Trade Plan
📈 Entry: 101.400
✅ Target 1 : 102.200
✅ Target 2 : 103.100
❌ SL: 100.500
R/R is 1:3
Btc repeated consolidation?Could we see another massive consolidation trend like our previous run just as we did it 2020-2021? I think this could be a likely scenario if we breakdown and are rejected from the 86-87k zone. If we breakdown this I think will see a rally into the 93-95k zone.
