Get started

Fundamental Analysis

3/31/25 - $qqq - Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me3/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Correlation 1... no more protection 4 me - bought back all my (covered calls) on the "rental" book, which is NYSE:VST , NYSE:UBER , NYSE:DECK , NASDAQ:BLDE , NASDAQ:GAMB as i'd rather take the 15-20% downside on what I believe are stocks that have at least 2x this in terms of upside into YE at this pt. esp in a quarter-end tape that simply looks "scared" - and i hear you guys that r saying "Bessent" told you more pain to come and "yes", but we shouldn't be believing anyone at this stage, friends. Think critically. here are some pts: - on my S&P math, the average stock is now down 20% from it's peak. i've writtent extensively about VIX mgmt and mag7 as a component of this equation. we've seen diff sectors, stocks and most importantly mag7 rotate seats (from cold to hot) at varying points in order to smooth the index. therefore, the index is the illusion here. "only an 8% correction" is meaningful in the above context. - i've reviewed all 500 of the S&P stocks in the last month, and on my thinking, about 80% of them are pretty obvious buys from a MT (nevermind LT context), let's describe MT as 12-18 months. that's not to say there isn't more downside, but buying the index at this pt (to low-IQ and chill) means you'll probably enter pretty well here - and the narrative/ thinking around AI is probably correct that "a lot of things are going to get demonetized especially software". but the mkt is currently confusing a few things. when we are correlation 1... the market says "all AI-related plays are losers" and that's objectively false. perhaps there will be more losers than winners, because this game of scale is one we haven't seen before. but when you're, say, selling something like NVDA that can't even meet it's chip demand for the next 2 years, trading at 4% FCF yield and growing >20% a year (probably 30-40% CAGR on my conservative math) versus a 10Y being forced lower and you tack on reinvestment risk to trying to "time" the NVDA bottom (which is *probably* at most 15-20% lower)... i'd contend - you're doing it wrong - or you think you're god. nobody times the bottom. we risk manage upside and downside risks with the book. - so acknowledging tariffs matter, rates matter, short term speech drives emotion. take a step back. i'd argue we're much closer to the bottom than the MSM will let on, as they're index-only thinkers. - what i'm really looking for is an open below lows (like we had today) and a massive red to green reversal. those have marked all major bottoms. again. we might have a few of these b/c we are in a whacky tape, but that sort of move should be taken into account. - one more point. seeing my favorite position NASDAQ:NXT dump nearly 6% at the open on "flows" and get rebid basically non-stop until i'm currently writing this... tells me most of what you're seeing is quarter-end balancers, so don't lose the signal through the noise. - i bought more OTC:OBTC today to top off too, even tho volume light (i'm probably 100% of that volume today already). limits only on this thing. - most importantly keep your head screwed on. last man standing without getting emotional wins, always. been here, done this. it never gets easier. but you learn to control your emotions. so take a step back. if you're sweating, take some exposure off, you're too big. but if you've made it this far, don't give up. assets > liabilities in this world. and the USD is ultimately a liability. never forget that. the goal isn't to accumulate dollars, but assets. V
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by VROCKSTAR
Is a TON Pump Coming?Is a TON Pump Coming? 🚀 TON, the blockchain developed by Telegram’s team, has gained significant attention due to its low transaction fees and strong connection with Telegram. Recent increases in liquidity and demand indicate growing investor interest in this cryptocurrency. 🔹 Technical Analysis: TON is currently in a short-term uptrend, with $4 acting as a key resistance level. A confirmed breakout above this level could push the price towards $7. However, failure to break this resistance may lead to a price correction toward lower support levels. 🔹 Potential Risks: A significant portion of TON tokens is held by whales, which could lead to high volatility. Additionally, its unlimited supply poses long-term inflation risks if not managed properly. 🔹 Growth Catalysts: Recent positive news, such as Telegram’s potential partnership with AI (Grok) and the release of key updates, could drive further demand. If TON sustains its momentum and breaks key resistance levels, it may enter a stronger bullish phase. 📌 Conclusion: While TON has strong fundamentals and market interest, its long-term stability depends on supply management and investor behavior. Entry at key levels with proper risk management is essential for those looking to trade or invest. 🚀
Long
by EhsanZeydabadi
2
NQ: Q/M/W Analysis!FA Analysis ST/MT/LT Outlook: SELL 1- US Economy: Recession/slowing down economy 2- Inflation is UP! 3- Trump's policies: Tariffs; Treasury hole; 4- Consumer sentiment and corporation sentiment are down 5- FED has hands tied; under Trump's pressure; confirmed uncertainty 6- Europe is waking up: Major investments in Infrastructures and Defense; Europe is and will attract investments (US equities DOWN Versus EUR Equities UP) 7- GOLD made new ATH seeking the sky as a response to UNCERTAINTY. All the above are very bad for US equities. 7- This week, we have key employment data (i.e., Jolts and NFP). Market expectations are very low. But I won't be surprised if NFP data comes NEGATIVE. 8- April 2nd: US tariffs comes into effect! 9- Market made already their decision: sell-off! Even with good news (i.e., today's Europe bending knee); So any good news will be short live, unless all these non-sense tariffs go away which is unlikely. TA Analysis: Quarterly TF Strong bearish Q candle! A confirmed break of TL, it means continuation down. Monthly TF Same here: strong bearish Monthly candle! The chart shows next key targets. Weekly TF Same thing: Very strong bearish weekly close. This weekly candle is the strongest bearish candle you may have! Price closed below 19620 (mentioned previously). During the last week, price bounced to test the previous swing of 19620 and grabbed liquidity and went down in an impulsive way. This wave still have room to continue down. Daily TF Last Friday daily candle is now the new strong resistance that buyers have to go through to make a change of structure. Many large sellers are sitting there.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
BTC Breakout or Breakdown: 83K to 87K or Bust to 73K?BTC’s standing at a fork in the road, and it’s itching to make a move! If it pushes past 83,121, we’re looking at a smooth jump to 84,600—like a quick win you can almost taste. Keep the good vibes going, and 87,000 might just be the big payoff. But hold up—if it stumbles below 81,300, things could get messy. The bears might crash the party, pulling us down to 80K, then 79,900. And if the slide keeps going? We’re talking 74,700, maybe even a rough landing between 73,600 and 73,000. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade Smarter Live Better
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Mindbloome-Trading
Chilean Peso Under Pressure: Mixed Economic SignalsThe Chilean peso continues to face significant downward pressure against the US dollar, recording four consecutive sessions of losses. The local currency has lost the key support of the 200-day moving average, now trading near 960 pesos per dollar, reflecting a sharp decline in investor confidence toward the Chilean currency. The latest weakness in the peso is mainly attributed to the release of mixed economic data for February 2025. The Industrial Production Index (IPI) showed a 3.6% year-over-year contraction, its sharpest drop since May 2023, driven particularly by a significant decline in the mining sector. Mining plunged 6.6%, directly affected by a 7.4% fall in metallic mining, especially copper—a key resource for Chilean exports and a major driver of national economic stability. The manufacturing sector also posted negative results, falling 1.3% year-over-year. Particularly concerning was the 11.5% drop in beverage production, along with a notable contraction in the paper segment. This performance may signal weakened domestic demand, raising concerns about sustained economic growth in Chile. Additionally, the electricity, gas, and water sector declined by 3.1%, mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, adding further uncertainty to the country's industrial and productive outlook. However, some sectors are showing encouraging signs. Real estate sales rose by a notable 10.7%, indicating confidence in certain segments of durable goods consumption. Entertainment activities also rebounded by 7.5%, while transportation grew 6.6%, driven by a positive trend in air and port logistics. Likewise, retail trade showed strength in clothing, electronics, and wholesale machinery, partially offsetting the 1.4% decline in supermarket sales, a potential sign of uneven domestic demand across regions. Attention now turns to tomorrow’s release of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMACEC). This data will be crucial for assessing the short-term direction of the Chilean peso. A weak reading could further exacerbate pressure on the currency, while a positive surprise might offer a temporary reprieve for the peso. Given this mixed scenario, the Chilean currency remains in a vulnerable position, shaped by uncertainty in key sectors of the economy, particularly mining. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
Liberation, Altercation or Doom? ES Futures weekly planCME_MINI:ES1! Quick Update ​The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries. ​ As April 2 looms, the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, leaving markets and investors in a state of heightened anticipation.​ We may get clarity on the tariff situation on April 2, 2025. Universal tariff announcement of categories of imports may clarify US administration’s maximum tariff escalation approach. A phased out and unclear tariff approach may keep markets in limbo. Economic Calendar Keep an eye on the data docket, NFP and other key releases are due this week. Tuesday, Apri 1, 2025 : ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday April 2, 2025 : ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM Thursday April 3, 2025 : Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims Friday, April 4, 2025 : Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM,Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Fed Chair Powell Speech Key Levels to Watch: Yearly Open 2025 : 6001.25 Key Resistance : 5850- 5860 LVN : 5770 -5760 Neutral Zone : 5705-5720 Key LIS Mid Range 2024 : 5626.50 2024-YTD mCVAL : 5381 2022 CVAH : 5349.75 August 5th, 2024 Low : 5306.75 Scenario 1: Bold but Strategic Tariffs (Effective Use of Tariff to reduce trade deficit and raise revenue) : In this scenario, we may see relief rally in ES futures, price reclaiming 2024 mid-range with a move higher towards key resistance level. Scenario 2: Maximum pressure, maximum tariff (All out trade war) : In this scenario, we anticipate a sell-off with major support levels, such as 2024- YTD mCVAL, 2022 CVAH and August 5th, 2024 low as immediate downside targets. Scenario 3: Further delays in Tariff policy (A negotiating tool, with looming uncertainty) : In this scenario, sellers remain in control and uncertainty persists, while we anticipate that rallies may be sold, market price action may remain choppy and range bound.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Euro at Critical Demand – Is the Trend About to Flip?Euro reached an important zone for my setup, triggering a long position. Although it’s still trending below the fibcloud on the 4H timeframe, we’ve seen a solid 0.5% recovery from the recent low. I’m looking for this area to hold as support, with defined risk in case the setup invalidates. Technicals: • Price tapped into a major 4H support level where liquidity historically steps in. • The current move marks a 0.5% bounce from the low, showing early signs of demand. • Still trading below the fibcloud, but a reclaim of that zone would open the path toward 1.0850. • Setup includes a stop-loss below the most recent wick low, with a clear structure to build a higher low. Fundamentals: EUR-side strength: • ECB maintains a slower pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed. • Growth and inflation in the Eurozone are still challenges, but the ECB’s hawkish stance continues to support medium-term EUR strength. • The ECB may hike another 150 bps to reach a 4% terminal rate, which favors EUR upside. USD-side risks: • Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all car imports, including from the EU-adding geopolitical and trade uncertainty. • Traders remain cautious around further escalation in US-EU trade tensions. • US Initial Jobless Claims later today could bring weakness to the dollar if the data disappoints. In short, while the USD remains resilient, the EUR fundamentals and the current technical zone make this a compelling spot for a bounce. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Long
by AR33_
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical and On-Chain !In this video, I will share my BTCUSD analysis by providing my complete technical and on-chain insights, so you can watch it to improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the on-chain data analysis, then I will be moving to the liquidation maps analysis and lastly, I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
2
3.31 Gold US market operation analysis suggestions!Gold intraday analysis and operation: How to judge the next step after gold breaks through 3130! Gold's strong rise in the Asian session has brought the price of gold close to 3130 and finally stagnated at 3127. The impact of the US market has not yet appeared, but with the current trend, the volatility of gold tonight will not be too small. The overall idea is to maintain the low north. The intraday volatility range is maintained within the range of 40 points between 3090 and 3130. The current increase has exceeded market expectations. Although there is selling pressure, it is all suppressed by the bulls! US market pressure focus: 3130-3150 above and 3110-3095 below The above analysis is a personal analysis suggestion, I hope it can bring some gains to everyone! We will update regularly every day and introduce to you how we manage active ideas and settings. Thank you for your likes, comments and attention, we are very grateful
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
Future Fund of XRP Popular Web3 Growth Manager Cas Abbé asserts that the end of the Ripple lawsuit sets the stage for a further XRP rally to the double-digit range. Abbé made the declaration in an X thread over the weekend as he highlighted the impact of the lawsuit’s resolution on XRP’s price. The expert indicated that the lawsuit’s resolution has already been priced in, as the price of XRP spiked over 500%—from around $0.5 to $3.3–during Q4 2024. 3 Factors That Could Send XRP Above $10 While many think XRP’s rally has ended following the lawsuit’s resolution, Abbé asserted that the coin could see more gains. He highlighted three bullish catalysts that could send XRP’s price above $10 following the lawsuit’s conclusion. XRP ETF Approval Following the lawsuit’s resolution, Abbé suggests that regulatory clarity is now in place for XRP in the U.S. This has prompted over 10 institutions, including Franklin Templeton, to file for spot-based XRP ETFs. He predicted that other top asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity could also seek the SEC’s permission to launch XRP ETFs in the U.S. The expert noted that PolyMarket predicts an 83% probability of XRP ETF approval in 2025. Abbé noted that institutions might invest in these funds if this prediction materializes due to XRP’s narrative as a payment asset with U.S. government backing and regulatory clarity. He expects the ETF approval to impact XRP’s performance by paving the way for a significant rally. RLUSD Adoption In addition, the expert points out that the lawsuit’s conclusion could drive the adoption of Ripple USD (RLUSD), which would positively impact XRP’s price. According to Abbé, the U.S. government is already bullish on stablecoins, especially those pegged to the U.S. dollar. Abbé suggested that the government aims to leverage USD-pegged stablecoins to maintain its dollar hegemony. In his view, Ripple intends to achieve a similar goal through its RLUSD stablecoin, which is backed by U.S. dollar deposits, government bonds, and cash equivalents. Explaining how RLUSD might benefit XRP, Abbé characterized the stablecoin as digital cash for the dollar and XRP as the ‘global courier’ connecting everyone, including banks. Abbé indicated that as banks attempt to integrate with digital dollars through RLUSD, XRP will serve as a bridge currency, eliminating the need for multiple currency conversions. He emphasized that the narrative is similar to how USDT adoption supposedly drove Bitcoin’s market cap to over $2 trillion and USDC adoption pumped ETH valuation to over $600 billion. Consequently, he forecasted that the massive adoption of RLUSD will also be bullish for XRP’s growth. Ripple IPO Lastly, the expert noted that 2025 might finally be the year for the highly anticipated Ripple IPO due to the U.S. pro-crypto administration and XRP regulatory clarity. Abbé suggested that a Ripple IPO is a big deal as it could allow the company to venture into multiple markets, such as real-world assets, decentralized finance, and others. He expects this expansion to attract more revenue for Ripple, with XRP poised to benefit significantly, increasing its value over time. Interestingly, Abbé expects these factors to drive XRP’s price above $10, marking a surge of 376.19% from the current value of $2.1.
Long
by Victor_79
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 31 March - 4 AprilMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, US and Canada’s Employment Data & Earnings Reports In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode, we discuss: - RBA Interest Rate Decision - US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate - Unemployment Rate in Canada - Corporate Earnings Statements Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
GameStop’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Wow Traders. Can It Copy MSTR?GameStop NYSE:GME wants to jam Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD into its treasury. But isn’t that a risky move that threatens to derail the video-game retailer’s finances? With $1.3 billion on the line, GameStop’s pivot to Bitcoin in efforts to revive its flagging share price may make things even worse. Let’s talk about that. Desperate times call for desperate measures. After a couple months of speculation, traders’ suspicions turned out correct — GameStop is indeed adding Bitcoin on its balance sheet . The company confirmed the plan in its quarterly earnings update released last week. That was all good — shares jumped 8% on the news and closed the cash session higher by 12%. But these solid gains were not only wiped out — traders doubled down on the selling pressure when the shares crashed 23% a day later because GameStop unveiled a scary figure. To make Bitcoin a treasury reserve asset, GameStop said it is seeking to sell $1.3 billion of convertible bonds , which will be used “for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin in a manner consistent with GameStop’s Investment Policy.” What do these convertible bonds do? They’re essentially papers that certify you’ve given the company a loan. Usually, they come bearing some nice guaranteed yield, but in this case, the yield is exactly 0.00%. Another string attached to GameStop's bonds is that they are due in 2030 and you can choose to convert them into shares, each with a price tag of $28.46, or you can take them out in cash. That’s one reason why the stock tanked last week — not too favorable conditions. Another one, and perhaps a bigger worry for investors, is that GameStop’s net income will no longer be as secure as it’s been until now. More precisely, GameStop generates around $220 million in interest each year thanks to its holding of Treasury bills. With Bitcoin getting in the mix of factors contributing to the bottom-line figure, things may spin out of ordinary. True, Bitcoin may go up in price and lift GameStop’s net income but it could also decide to nosedive for no reason and eat into GameStop’s profits. Judging by the votes of the traders last week (if the stock market is a voting machine in the short term), they seem to believe in the latter. At least for now. But that's not a concern to the OG meme stock . Where it hopes Bitcoin will make a difference is the long run. Just look at MicroStrategy MSTR . Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy , is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Even more, it’s a Bitcoin hoarder, sitting on more than 506,000 Bitcoin, according to BTC-tracking platform Bitcoin Treasuries . Strategy has been issuing debt to buy Bitcoin since 2020 and that’s the exact same thing that GameStop is doing. But there’s a key difference. Strategy has largely strapped its share price to the performance of Bitcoin. So much so that the market has been feverishly buying the stock as a way to get exposure to Bitcoin (on steroids). For GameStop, it’s too late for that. Shares of Strategy are trading at less than 2x the value of its Bitcoin holdings. GameStop, in contrast, has appealed to investors for its stack of cash (besides the speculative bonanza) with $4.8 billion in dry powder ready to be deployed. The stock is trading at more than 2x its cash holdings and the cash-to-Bitcoin conversion is likely to dent that performance and trigger some outflows. And that’s how the company puts its premium at risk. So is it safe to say that GameStop is looking to spark a share-price rally by following MicroStrategy’s lead? Maybe. But the exposure to Bitcoin also comes at a perilous time for the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin is down 10% on the year and more than 25% from its all-time high of $109,000 to hover around $84,000 a pop. Can the Bitcoin philosophy reel GameStop out of the slump? Or will it drag the bottom line and chip away at whatever’s left of the bruised valuation under $10 billion? You be the judge — share your thoughts in the comment section!
NYSE:GME
by TradingView
11