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Fundamental Analysis

The bull market is not over yet!This is probably the area of ​​interest from where we will try to increase to the 101k-102k area in the first phase. There was a liquidity takeover, at the end of the month some contracts expire and some are rushing to sell them faster. Don't panic, I don't think the bullish cycle is over, it just took a few out of the game. I put 2 scenarios that can happen in the next period. P.S: I'm not looking at scenario 3, but I would rather look at 110k 120k. But the market is unpredictable, who knows.
by CNC2788
#USDJPY $USDJPY Rise after Monetary Policy Divergence...The USD/JPY continiues to produce. Latest: The USDJPY has seen an increase over the last three days due to several factors: Monetary Policy Divergence: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to maintain its interest rates, reflecting a dovish stance in contrast to the U.S. Federal Reserve's more hawkish approach. This divergence in monetary policy tends to strengthen the U.S. Dollar against the Yen since investors can borrow Yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. FOMC Meeting Impact: The recent FOMC meeting indicated a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025, which typically supports a stronger U.S. Dollar. This hawkish cut by the Fed, alongside the BoJ's inaction, contributed to the USDJPY's upward movement. Market Reactions and Technical Levels: Following the FOMC and BoJ announcements, there was an immediate market reaction. The USDJPY broke higher post-BoJ press conference, indicating a breakout possibly influenced by both the Fed and BoJ decisions. Technical analysis suggests that if the pair maintains above certain levels, like 157, it could aim for higher extensions, showing strong market sentiment towards further appreciation of the USD against JPY. Although a pullback at this level would be healty. Speculation on Future Interventions: There's an anticipation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might intervene at around the 160 level to protect the Yen, but historical interventions have been less effective, suggesting that the USDJPY could continue to rise if these levels are approached (Taking a look at the upper line yellow line at the chart, if this is tested, broaken and holds we could see a great incerease). My target would be at 160- 165 lvl for now if it holds its current price or finds support in event of an pullback at a key level. However always keep in mind, currency movements are also influenced by broader market sentiment, geopolitical events, and other economic indicators. This is not financial advice.
Long
by BaseLineTraders
MARA Marathon Digital Holdings A Crypto Mining Stock to Watch Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MARA ) “Bitcoin at $96K? It’s like Monopoly money growing into something real—fueling wealth and lifting stocks like $MARA. Let’s break down the crypto miner making waves in this dynamic market.” After Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) surged to $96,000, Marathon Digital Holdings ( NASDAQ:MARA ) has positioned itself as a significant player in the crypto ecosystem. For investors, NASDAQ:MARA represents a unique opportunity tied directly to Bitcoin’s price movements and the operational efficiencies of crypto mining. Let’s dive into the details to evaluate its potential. Current Market Data Stock Price: Around $22.73 Market Cap: Approximately $4.65 billion Earnings Per Share (EPS): -$0.42 (last quarter) At first glance, NASDAQ:MARA ’s financial metrics might raise eyebrows. A negative EPS highlights the ongoing challenges of profitability in the volatile crypto mining industry. However, its substantial Bitcoin reserves tell a different story. Bitcoin Holdings: A Key Asset Marathon Digital holds 40,435 BTC, valued at approximately $3.88 billion at the current Bitcoin price of $96,000. This means that 83% of its market cap is backed by Bitcoin holdings alone. Such a significant asset base provides a unique valuation anchor in an otherwise speculative industry. Book Value Breakdown Total Bitcoin Value: ~$3.88 billion Estimated Shares Outstanding: ~204.6 million Book Value Per Share: ~$19.00 Compared to its stock price of ~$22.73, this suggests NASDAQ:MARA is trading close to its asset-backed value, making it an intriguing option for Bitcoin bulls. Valuation Metrics Traditional valuation methods struggle with companies like NASDAQ:MARA , given the negative EPS and the speculative nature of the crypto market. However, using a forward-looking EPS of $1.22 (an optimistic assumption), we can estimate: Graham Number: At a stock price of ~$22.73, NASDAQ:MARA appears fairly valued by this metric, though this assumes optimistic future earnings and stability in Bitcoin prices. Operational Highlights BTC Yield Growth: Marathon has reported steady improvements in Bitcoin yield, signaling operational success and increased mining efficiency. Renewable Energy Investments: Recent moves to secure wind farms and other renewable energy sources could reduce mining costs and enhance profitability. Scalability: With a solid foundation and operational upgrades, NASDAQ:MARA is well-positioned to benefit from further Bitcoin price increases. Risks and Volatility Crypto Dependency: NASDAQ:MARA ’s performance is tightly coupled with Bitcoin’s price. While this offers significant upside during bull markets, it exposes the stock to extreme downside risk in bear markets. Regulatory Uncertainty: Potential changes in crypto regulations could impact mining operations and profitability. Operational Costs: Fluctuations in energy prices and mining difficulty could strain margins. Buffett’s Perspective: Speculation vs. Strategy Warren Buffett famously avoids speculative assets like Bitcoin, and by extension, Bitcoin-focused companies. However, Marathon’s strategic moves—such as renewable energy investments—showcase a long-term vision that could appeal to more risk-tolerant investors. Conclusion: Is NASDAQ:MARA a Buy? NASDAQ:MARA ’s substantial Bitcoin reserves and operational improvements make it a compelling choice for investors who believe in Bitcoin’s continued growth. At a price of ~$22.73, the stock seems fairly valued relative to its book value and intrinsic potential. However, investing in NASDAQ:MARA requires: A strong belief in Bitcoin’s future. A high tolerance for crypto market volatility. An understanding of the risks tied to mining operations and regulatory changes. For those ready to embrace the volatility, NASDAQ:MARA offers an opportunity to ride the crypto wave with a company building for the future. For more in-depth market insights and strategies, visit DCAlpha.net and stay ahead of the game. 🚀
NASDAQ:MARALong
by DCAChampion
2
Gold Market Update: Imbalance Liquidation Targets $2620–$2580Gold continues to align with the imbalance liquidation between $2620 and $2580. The recent prominent support at $2605 is under pressure; if it fails to hold, further sweeps around $2619 could occur. The bearish momentum remains intact, aiming to secure weekly demands below the $2600 level.yall should stay cautious, hedge along, and prepare for potential volatility as the market seeks equilibrium. follow for more insights comment and boost idea
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by Ak_capitalist
USD/CAD steady ahead of retail salesThe Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4384, down 0.11% at the time of writing. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level since March, touching 1.4435. Canada retail sales have risen for four consecutive months and the trend is expected to continue today, with a market estimate of 0.7% m/m. The economy outlook remains gloomy and the Bank of Canada is expected to continue lowering rates in order to boost the weak economy. The BoC has been aggressive, cutting rates five times since June for a total of 175 basis points. The central bank slashed the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% last week but signaled that it plans a "more gradual approach to monetary policy", which means we can expect 25-bp increments in rate cuts if there are no surprises in inflation or employment data. The "gradual approach" sounds a lot like what we're hearing from the Federal Reserve, which surprised the markets on Wednesday when it lowered its forecast to just two rate cuts in 2025, compared to four cuts in the September projection. The US dollar soared after the rate announcement and the Canadian dollar took it on the chin with losses of around 1% on Wednesday. The incoming Trump administration could be a major headache for Canada, as Trump has pledged to slap tariffs on Canadian products. The Canadian government  has announced enhanced security measures at its border with the US, hoping these moves will encourage Trump to suspend his tariff plans. Canada's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned earlier this month after a bitter row with Prime Minister Trudeau, which has added political uncertainty that could weigh on the wobbly Canadian dollar. USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.4404 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.4463 1.4341 and 1.4282 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Forecasting gold priceForecasting gold prices is a complex task, as it's influenced by a multitude of factors. Here's a breakdown of the key elements and some current forecasts: Factors Influencing Gold Prices: US Dollar: Gold is often priced in US dollars, so its value tends to move inversely to the dollar's strength. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand. Interest Rates: Rising interest rates can make holding gold less attractive, as it doesn't offer a yield like bonds or other interest-bearing assets. Inflation: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, investors may turn to gold to preserve their purchasing power. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Economic or political instability, such as wars or financial crises, can increase demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Supply and Demand: Physical demand for gold, including jewelry, industrial uses, and central bank purchases, also plays a role in price fluctuations. Current Forecasts: Trading Economics: Their global macro models and analysts expect gold to trade at $2,682.04 USD/t oz. by the end of the current quarter and $2,783.76 in 12 months. FXEmpire: They highlight that the US dollar's strength and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are key factors currently limiting gold's upward momentum. They are closely watching the US PCE Price Index for inflation insights, which could significantly impact gold prices. Other Analysts: Some analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and concerns over a potential US government shutdown could boost gold's safe-haven appeal. However, strong economic data could reinforce the Fed's policy stance and limit gold's upside. Important Considerations: Forecasts are not guarantees: These are just predictions based on current information and models. Unexpected events can significantly impact gold prices. Multiple factors at play: It's crucial to consider the interplay of various factors, rather than focusing on any single element. Stay updated: Keep an eye on economic data releases, central bank announcements, and geopolitical developments to stay informed about potential influences on gold prices. In conclusion, the outlook for gold is mixed, with both upward and downward pressures at play. The US dollar's strength and the Fed's monetary policy are key factors to watch, along with inflation data and geopolitical events. It's essential to stay informed and consider multiple perspectives when making any investment decisions related to gold.
TVC:GOLD
by ITManager_US
GOLD → Consolidation after the fall. Trading inside the rangeFX:XAUUSD is forming consolidation in a new bearish plane after a strong fall on Wednesday. The emphasis is on 2622 - 2581. The fundamental background is negative and technically the price is testing the lows. On Wednesday, the Fed adopted a more conservative approach to monetary policy, laying down only 2 rate cuts in 2025, which generally had a negative impact on the whole market except for the dollar, which is breaking through local highs. Today traders await the release of the PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Any surprise in the PCE data or an escalation of political uncertainty could push metal prices up. From a technical point of view, the gold market remains in the previously mentioned consolidation, and prices fluctuate in wide ranges, which is generally logical for the end of the calendar year: reduced liquidity and increased volatility... Resistance levels: 2616, 2622 Support levels: 2589, 2581, 2560 Since the price is inside the consolidation, it is worth considering trading from the boundaries of this range. In the long term, I expect a retest of the key resistance 2616-2622 in the form of a false breakdown and a fall towards local lows Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
Micron Technology (MU) Stock Drops 16%Micron Technology (MU) Stock Drops 16% On Wednesday, Micron Technology released its quarterly earnings report after the main trading session closed. The results aligned closely with analysts' expectations: earnings per share came in at $1.79, slightly above the forecast of $1.76, while revenue met projections at $8.71 billion. Despite meeting estimates, the chipmaker issued a disappointing forecast for the next quarter, citing weak demand for personal computers (PCs) and smartphones. This overshadowed positive projections for the growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market. Morningstar analyst William Kerwin warned of a potential "significant decline" in revenue from chips used in smartphones and PCs in 2025, driven by challenging market conditions. As a result, Micron Technology's stock opened Thursday's session with a significant bearish gap and continued to slide throughout the day, closing 16% lower than Wednesday's closing price. The chart of Micron Technology shares reveals bearish signals, as the price has broken below the support line of the long-term upward channel defined by key reversal points. Currently, the stock is hovering around the $85.50 support level, which successfully halted the bearish momentum in August and September. However, with market sentiment dampened by Jerome Powell’s cautious comments about the pace of rate cuts in 2025, MU shares may face further downside. If this happens, the downward channel (highlighted in red) could become the dominant trend. Analysts remain optimistic despite recent developments. According to TipRanks: → 23 out of 24 analysts recommend buying MU stock. → The average 12-month price target is $153.05. That said, if the stock continues to deviate from the blue upward channel, analysts may adjust their price targets downwards to reflect the changing outlook. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MU
by FXOpen
2
GBPUSD → One step away from breaking support and falling awayFX:GBPUSD is facing difficulties. Negative fundamental background, strong dollar and price entry into the selling zone gives a bunch of preconditions hinting at the continuation of the fall Yesterday the UK GDP came out, which remained at the same level, there is no driver for GBP at the moment, but there is for USD, which is growing after interest rate cuts, but the growth is not because of this, but because of hints of stopping the cycle of further rate cuts and the change of officials' mood to hawkish, which in general, against the background of Trump's policy indicates medium-term potential. Technically, the currency pair is testing the risk zone, a false breakout will form a rebound reaction and I think it will be a short-term reaction. Resistance levels: 1.257, 1.2597, 1.2665 Support levels: 1.2488, 1.245 After the false breakdown, the currency pair may test the local resistance. But retest of the support within 1-3 days will play an important role. Formation of a pre-breakout base at 1.2488 will strengthen the potential for further decline With Respect R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2
Long Signal for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)📈 Long Signal for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) ✅ Suggestion: I’ve opened a buy position from the marked zone and anticipate growth for Bitcoin. 🎯 Key Insight: This is Bitcoin’s final support level, and despite the high risk, I’m willing to take the chance. 🚀 💬 To manage this signal effectively and explore more opportunities: 1️⃣ Follow my TradingView page 📊 2️⃣ Send me a private message for personalized guidance. 💎 Let’s trade strategically and aim for big profits! 💰
Long
by DAVID_SNIPERRR
USDJPY | Hidden Bearish Divergence | 1HCurrently, the USDJPY chart shows the formation of a hidden bearish divergence and a double top pattern, both indicating that the uptrend is shifting into a downtrend. Additionally, new lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) are forming, confirming the change in market structure. These factors suggest the presence of a potential reversal zone (PRZ), where the price is likely to continue its downward movement. Explanation: 1: Hidden Bearish Divergence: The price is formed higher highs (HH), while the RSI is showing lower highs, signaling weakness in the uptrend and a potential reversal. 2: Double Top Formation: A double top is a strong reversal pattern, indicating that the price has struggled to break through a resistance level and is now likely to move downward. 3: Market Structure Shift: The formation of lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) indicates a transition from an uptrend to a downtrend, confirming bearish sentiment. 4: Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ): The confluence of divergence, the double top, and the structural change points to a PRZ where sellers are likely to dominate, pushing the price further down. This setup suggests a bearish bias, and traders could look for sell opportunities after proper confirmation, such as a retest of the PRZ or a bearish candlestick pattern.
Short
by awaisulabdeen
GBPCHF Ahead of the BOE Interest Rate DecisionGBPCHF Ahead of the BOE Interest Rate Decision Today, the Bank of England (BOE) is expected to release its rate decision. The BOE is anticipated to keep rates unchanged at 4.75%. If this happens, the GBP could see slight bullish momentum, but nothing significant. However, considering the improving UK data over the past month, we could see a weaker GBP , if the BOE cuts rates. The price has already broken out from a bearish pattern. This movement is very risky, as it is mainly based on the BOE Interest Rate Decision. These events can easily invalidate patterns, so it is advisable to be cautious. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
4
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 20, 2024 GBPUSDThe Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound. The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%. The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold Analysis December 20⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices maintained a buying bias in the first half of the European session on Friday amid prevailing risk-off sentiment. Amid persistent geopolitical risks and trade war concerns, the threat of a US government shutdown prompted some safe-haven flows into bullion. C The Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it will slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 acted as a driver for US bond yields and favored USD bulls. Traders now look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which could influence the USD price dynamics and act as a driver for gold prices in the US session. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold rebounded from 2587. This zone became a resistance zone but is no longer too strong if the selling pressure is strong. The important zone at the moment is around 2607. When this zone breaks before the middle of the European session, the target of 2622 will be where SELL signals can be considered. If the US session breaks this zone, we have two possible resistance zones, the first SEL around 2633-2635 and when this zone breaks, we must aim for 2658-2660. If it fails to break 2607, set SELL to 2555. ⭐️Trading signals SELL GOLD zone 2622-2624 Stoloss 2627 SELL GOLD zone 2633-2635 Stoploss 2638 BUY GOLD zone 2656-2654 Stoploss 2651 BUY Scalp 2692-2690 Stoploss 2687
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
After the US pivoted monetary policy : ??At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future. Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year. According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation. This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term. According to analysts, the gold market has been volatile at times after the US pivoted its monetary policy. Specifically, the FED is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 0.5 percentage points only twice in 2025. This is a big change compared to the FED's announcement in September 2024 that there would be 4 interest rate cuts next year. This move has stimulated a very strong increase in the price of the USD and US bond interest rates. Because gold is priced in USD, when the "health" of this currency is stronger, it will put pressure on the price of this precious metal. Higher US bond interest rates have attracted investors to put capital into bonds, reducing demand for gold.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold Market Update: Imbalance Liquidation Targets $2620–$2580Gold continues to align with the imbalance liquidation between $2620 and $2580. The recent prominent support at $2605 is under pressure; if it fails to hold, further sweeps around $2619 could occur. The bearish momentum remains intact, aiming to secure weekly demands below the $2600 level. yall should stay cautious, hedge along with AK , and prepare for potential volatility as the market seeks equilibrium .follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Ak_capitalist
Gold is still in a long term uptrend.At the beginning of the trading session on December 19 (US time), the world gold price continued to decrease after the US announced the number of unemployment benefit applications was 220,000, down from the forecast of 230,000 applications. This prompted the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the future. Previously, gold investors were disappointed when the Fed sent out an unfavorable signal right after the monetary policy meeting on December 18. The US Central Bank issued a new forecast, showing that there will be 2 rounds of 25 basis point interest rate cuts next year. According to independent metal trader Tai Wong, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he will slow down the process of cutting interest rates in the context of persistent inflation. This message from the Fed will make the gold price trend worse in the long term. Multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that demand for gold will remain strong as central banks seek to diversify their reserves, especially after Russia's assets are frozen in 2022. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2607 - 2609🔥 💵 TP1: 2600 💵 TP2: 2590 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2615
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Analysis Company Overview: D-Wave Quantum NYSE:QBTS is a pioneer in commercial quantum computing, leveraging its annealing-based quantum technology to address complex computational challenges. Its first-mover advantage in quantum solutions positions it as a key player in this emerging industry. Key Catalysts: Differentiated Technology: D-Wave’s annealing-based quantum model sets it apart from competitors focused on gate-based systems, enabling practical, near-term solutions for optimization problems across industries. Government and Defense Partnerships: Increasing traction with key clients like the U.S. Department of Defense and other government agencies validates D-Wave’s credibility and enhances its potential for lucrative long-term contracts. Strong Revenue Projections: Wall Street forecasts a nearly 70% revenue growth to $14.8 million by 2025, reflecting rising demand for D-Wave’s quantum solutions and marking progress toward scalability and profitability. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on QBTS above the $3.75-$3.80 range, supported by its competitive technology, increasing adoption, and strategic partnerships. Upside Potential: Our upside target for QBTS is $9.00-$10.00, driven by expanding commercial applications, strong revenue growth, and continued government traction. 🚀 QBTS—Harnessing Quantum Power to Solve Tomorrow’s Challenges Today. #QuantumComputing #Innovation #TechGrowth
NYSE:QBTSLong
by Richtv_official