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Fundamental Analysis

RENDER SWING LONG IDEA - RENDER COIN RENDER is one of the leading AI and DePIN projects in the crypto market. During the 2023-2024 altcoin bull cycle, this coin achieved a remarkable 10x return, so I recommend keeping a close watch on it. Technical Analysis: The price recently hit the monthly demand and faced a rejection there during the August 5th dip. This rejection sparked an immediate bullish movement and shifted the weekly structure to bullish. The price also initially pulled back from a bearish trendline responsible for the downtrend since March 2024. Recently, the price broke through this bearish trendline with strong momentum, highlighting the strength of the trend, and I’m interested in joining the trade after this breakout. My targets are set on the purple levels, and I expect potential upside in the coming months. SL: $3.98 TP1: $6.80 TP2: $11.90 TP3: $13.80
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
BTCHere's a long-term analysis on Bitcoin and the potential decline after reaching a new price high. On the weekly timeframe, there appears to be some accumulation, meaning there is strong pressure from both buyers and sellers. However, manipulation is likely to occur sooner or later, leading to two possible scenarios: either a new high will be reached, which is the more likely outcome, or a drop to the $40,000–$30,000 range could happen due to the significant price spike that left behind a lot of unabsorbed liquidity and imbalances. If the latter scenario unfolds, I recommend buying altcoins in a spot wallet and considering a long-term Bitcoin trade around the $31,000–$35,000 price level.
by TraderNo007_
Investment IdeaIndus Towers Financial Highlights 1. Current Market Price (CMP): ₹326.2 2. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 11.65 3. Market Capitalization: ₹87,908.84 crores 4. Dividend Yield: 0% 5. Net Profit (Qtr): ₹2,223.5 crores (71.74% YoY growth) 6. Sales (Qtr): ₹7,465.3 crores (4.67% YoY growth) Performance Indicators 1. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): 22.08% 2. Promoter Holding: 53% 3. Relative Strength Index (RSI): 27.94 (oversold/undervalued) Indus Towers competing with: 1. Bharti Infratel 2. Reliance Infratel 3. GTL Infrastructure Key Takeaways - Strong net profit growth 71.74% YoY - Moderate sales growth 4.67% YoY - Attractive P/E ratio 11.65 - High promoter holding 53% - Undervalued RSI 27.94 Last Trading Price: 326 Buy Range: Rs 320-330 Short-Term Targets: Rs 356, 396, 436 Long-Term Targets: Rs 436, 526, 636 Accumulation Zone: Rs 290-270 (buy on dips)
NSE:INDUSTOWERLong
by Anubhav_A
2
#QTUM (SPOT- Investing ) entry (1.880- 2.370). SL (1.784)BINANCE:QTUMUSDT entry range (1.880- 2.370) Target1 (3.290) - Target2 (4.960) - Target3 (7.740) - Target4 (10.499) - Target5 (13.199) 1 Extra Targets(optional) in chart, if you like to continue in the trade with making stoploss very high. SL .1D close below (1.784) ** This coin may take long time to achieve all targets ** *** collect the coin slowly in the entry range *** *** No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey *** **** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA #SC #JOE #RDNT #IQ #CFX #BICO #CTSI #KMD #FXS #DEGO #FORTH # AST #PORTAL #CYBER #RIF #ENJ #ZIL #APT #GALA #STEEM #ONE #LINK #NTRN #COTI #RENDER #ICX #IMX #ALICE #PYR #PORTAL #GRT #GMT # IDEX #NEAR #ICP #ETH #QTUM ***
Long
by Crypto_alphabit
2
#VET (SPOT- Investing ) entry ( 0.01960- 0.02260). SL (0.01890)BINANCE:VETUSDT entry range ( 0.01960- 0.02260) Target1 (0.03499) - Target2 (0.06860) - Target3 (0.10390) - Target4 (0.14790) SL .1D close below (0.01890) ** This coin may take long time to achieve all targets ** *** collect the coin slowly in the entry range *** *** No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey *** **** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA #SC #JOE #RDNT #IQ #CFX #BICO #CTSI #KMD #FXS #DEGO #FORTH # AST #PORTAL #CYBER #RIF #ENJ #ZIL #APT #GALA #STEEM #ONE #LINK #NTRN #COTI #RENDER #ICX #IMX #ALICE #PYR #PORTAL #GRT #GMT # IDEX #NEAR #ICP #ETH #QTUM #VET ***
Long
by Crypto_alphabit
5
BTC before final moments: ready to jump? (1H)Hello, fellow traders! I want to share my thoughts on BTC. Looking at the 1H chart, we see the price has recently touched the weekly resistance line. It is now hovering just above the line instead of breaking out, which is ideal. I've adjusted the time of the US election and Federal reserve interest rate announcement based on where I live. The US election is scheduled on the 5th and the initial result will most likely be available before the day ends. Even if it doesn't, general projection would be informative enough to stimulate the market to move accordingly. Western states including California will be the last to close the polls and start processing the votes, but it's likely that the outcome become clear enough before they even finish the process. So my guess is the market would already start moving by 10-11PM (ETZ) since market tends to move ahead based on assumptions. This is around 6PM of 6th in where I live. If the vote process takes longer (because of the close race or whatever other reasons) than usual, it might take additional 2-3 days which would cause a lot of volatilities that would eventually abate as the result becomes more comprehensible. I also want to address the US federal reserve interest rate announcement which is scheduled this Thursday - just after the election. This will again impact the crypto market heavily - many are expecting the rate cut for economical growth and if this is true, chances of BTC bull run will definitely increase. Many are predicting BTC to reach ATH, even up to 90k, 100k, 1m, and some are saying that the bull run will begin no matter who becomes the next potus. Back to the chart, we see price slightly rebounding as it touches the weekly resistance line. However, the breakout of the downtrend (marked as a red line) is yet to happen. If the outcome of this election and the interest rate announcement come out favorable to the market, I can only imagine a breakout, then a bull run starting with big momentum. I've read a lot of posts, comments and news about BTC, I see some saying the halving will begin after the election, others saying BTC will double - interestingly both side had evidence to back them up. Maybe both are true! I don't think we can comfortably rely on the past data. People have different strategies, different experiences, resulting in different conclusion. What I understand though is nature of market movements - it moves according to the psychology. And the outcome of the upcoming election and change of interest rate will definitely either encourage people to invest more or withdraw their investments. Conclusion: My strategy for BTC is if the breakout (of the red line) occurs and both election and interest rate come out favorable for the market, I will enter LONG. All the hypes around BTC, current election predictions, news about rate cut really give us the excitement but I don't want to assume anything yet. I'm just hoping the timing of the breakout aligns with these two events to maximize momentum. Frankly, I'm looking forward to seeing the results but I'm also not going to try to predict them because I've been wrong many times and have learned from those experiences not to make predictions. Instead, I will react. If the market moves opposite direction, we'll just simply enter opposite position and take profit. It's that simple.
Long
by QJEEE
6
Future of KASPA!Hello, fellow traders! KASPA is nearing to its support zone based on its ATL and swing movements. If we can confirm the reversal here with the favorable outcome of the election, we might see a swing opportunity to 0.19 or even beyond. We will also make sure to confirm the reversal first: if the price drops additionally before making its turn, this is not out of ordinary. My approach mostly contains technical analysis, drawing lines and boxes in the chart. However, I also find understanding the background of the crypto (or any market product in this matter) equally important if not more. So I've done some research about Kaspa, and I've noticed a lot of comments in social media regarding its political stance, security budget issue and such. Here are my thoughts: I do not think these concerns should be overlooked, but I also appreciate the active responses and enthusiasm from the developers, and I think catching people's attention is already a positive part about this crypto. Among all the cryptos I've traded (besides BTC, ETH, SOL), I think this crypto has some potential even when looked outside of the chart. Back to the charts, we already see the price has risen by 10% after it touched the zone.
Long
by QJEEE
A Silver Lining in BrazilThe USDBRL recently broke above a descending channel, signaling further BRL weakness; an unusual occurrence given the ongoing shift to easing cycles by major global central banks. Figure 1: Major Central Banks Begun Rate Cuts; USDBRL Rises Instead On September 18th, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 50 basis points, marking its first reduction since the pandemic. Several other central banks, such as Bank of Canada (BOC), European Central Bank (ECB), have continued their ongoing rate cut cycle in the past few months. While uncertainties remain about the pace and extent of these cuts, there is a clear consensus among major central banks to adopt a dovish stance. Historically, monetary decisions by major central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), have directly influenced the USDBRL exchange rate. Higher U.S. rates attract capital inflows, strengthening the USD and weakening the BRL. Consequently, one would expect USDBRL to continue trending lower in line with anticipated rate cuts. Instead, USDBRL recently surged to levels reminiscent of the pandemic era, defying conventional expectations. Figure 2: Brazil’s Central Bank Acts Swiftly on Inflation The Brazilian Monetary Committee (COPOM) was one of the earliest to react to rising inflation, initiating aggressive rate hikes as early as 2021. This preemptive stance set COPOM apart from other major central banks, which only began tightening in 2022. The much more aggressive hikes helped stabilize the BRL, leading to a sustained downtrend in USDBRL. The COPOM has also been quick to address the recent reversal in inflation trends. A 25-basis-point rate hike in September and November signals the start of a monetary tightening cycle aimed at countering inflationary pressures, especially in food and energy prices. Figure 3: COPOM Leads Global Rate Hike and Rate Cut Cycles Although COPOM began cutting rates in the second half of 2023, global narratives remained focused on the U.S.'s potential for a soft landing. Amid the lack of confidence in post-pandemic recovery and lack of direction in major central banks’ stance on rate hikes, capital stayed in developed markets. However, the latest cuts from major central banks suggest a shift toward more accommodative policies, potentially sparking renewed interest in riskier emerging market assets. Brazil stands to benefit from this shift, particularly following COPOM’s decision to raise rates. Yet, the recent USDBRL breakout suggests a market sentiment that is incongruent with these developments. Figure 4: Divergence Between Brazil’s Ibovespa and S&P 500 Continues This odd occurrence extends to the equity market as well. Back in March 2024, we noted the divergence between the S&P500 and Ibovespa. While the divergence narrowed slightly after, the S&P500 benefited from the subsequent AI-driven gains, and Brazil’s Ibovespa futures lagged. This reflects a broader uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s financial outlook. Figure 5: Brazil’s Overall Flow Remains Positive The trade balance measures the difference between exports and imports of goods and services whereas the capital flows measure the ownership of Brazilian assets by foreigners against foreign assets owned by Brazilians. This can include foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and other investments. Despite episodes of capital outflow in 2024, Brazil’s trade surplus has been relatively stable, which has effectively provided a buffer. Throughout the first half of 2024, the net positive combined inflow signals an overall greater demand for the BRL and ought to provide additional support for the currency. Moreover, China’s recent stimulus measures are likely to have a positive impact on Brazil. As a major commodity exporter, Brazil’s trade figures are closely tied to China’s economic performance. The announcement of China’s 2025 investment budget for construction projects is expected to further boost Brazil’s trade numbers. Though there is different dynamics in international trade and investment, market sentiment still weighs heavily on bearish expectations on Brazil’s financial market over her strong trade capabilities. Figure 6: Brazil’s GDP Shows Robust Growth Brazil’s central bank recently revised its 2024 growth forecast upwards, citing stronger-than-expected data. Brazil’s GDP grew by 1.4%, while real GDP expanded by 2.68%, rebounding after two quarters of stagnation. With annual GDP growth projected to hit 3% by the fourth quarter, Brazil’s economy is proving to be more resilient than market sentiment suggests. Figure 7: Brazil’s Labor Market Remains Robust While the market panicked over U.S. unemployment rate spike in July, Brazil’s unemployment rate has been consistently declining, a clear indication in a significant improvement in labor participation rate. Furthermore, wages, benchmarked using real earnings, have shown significant recovery post-pandemic, reaching new highs. This labor market strength further supports the fundamentals of the Brazilian economy. Figure 8: Brazil’s Fiscal Concerns Weigh on Sentiment Brazil’s rising government debt and debt-to-GDP ratio have raised concerns among investors, highlighting a significant fiscal challenge. While the debt-to-GDP ratio had improved in recent years, 2023 marked a reversal suggesting a possible upward trend that alarmed markets. This is compounded by the government’s recent decision to relax budget targets for 2025 and 2026, extending the timeline to achieve fiscal surplus. Such moves signal a longer period needed to stabilize Brazil’s growing public debt, prompting fears of higher future inflation and questions about the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline. Investors worry that these factors could lead to elevated inflation expectations and erode the perceived value of Brazilian assets, demanding higher risk premiums to compensate for fiscal uncertainty. Every Cloud has a Silver Lining Despite these fiscal challenges, Brazil’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience. Trade surpluses remain robust, GDP growth is positive, and the labor market is strong. COPOM’s recent rate hike signals its determination to combat inflationary pressures. Brazil’s Treasury Secretary, Rogerio Ceron, has pledged to outperform fiscal targets, while Moody’s recent credit rating upgrade in October places Brazil just one notch below investment grade. This contrast between solid economic fundamentals and fiscal instability has created a situation where the market appears overly focused on Brazil’s fiscal risks, potentially mispricing the country’s overall economic health. Consequently, this divergence highlights a lopsided risk premium that investors may exploit, particularly by engaging in relative value trades on the yield curve. Gaining Access to the Yield Curve Brazil’s main interest rate contract, the DI Futures which is traded on the B3 exchange, reflects the expectations of the market for the average DI Rate over a specified period – starting from the trade day (inclusive) to the contract’s maturity date (exclusive). The DI Rate is the average rate for one-day Interbank Deposit Certificates (CDI) traded between different banks but, nowadays, considering their methodology and the current market dynamic, this rate has the same value of Selic Over Rate (Brazilian interest rate benchmark that will follow the Selic Target Rate). The Selic Target Rate is the interest rate set by the COPOM and used by the Brazil Central Bank in the implementation of the monetary policy. Both local and non-local investors trade the DI Futures to express their views and expectations of the Brazilian yield curve, making DI Futures one of the most liquid interest rate instruments traded globally. Furthermore, B3’s COPOM Option Public Dashboard provides a convenient visualization of such market sentiment – Selic Target Rate probabilities decided at each COPOM meeting. These probabilities are calculated with B3’s COPOM Option contracts. All DI Futures contracts are cash settled and payout 100,000 BRL at the end. The total profit and loss will include all the daily settlement to be carried out until the expiry date. Since the DI Futures contract is quoted in rates, to express the view of a rate cut, an investor can simply short the DI Futures in the respective maturities being studied. Furthermore, by analyzing DI Futures rates across shorter maturities, investors can gauge market sentiment regarding future COPOM actions while rates across longer maturities reflect sentiments on the broader outlook on economic conditions. An example to interpret the DI Futures rates and calculate the daily settlement is provided by B3 under the topic of directional positions. Figure 9: Setting up the Trade Evidently in Figure 2, the COPOM has always reacted promptly to address any reversals in inflation trend. As it is incredibly difficult to predict future inflation trends and other economic conditions, it is therefore difficult to predict COPOM’s reaction in the future. As such a directional trade on DI Futures can prove to be relatively risky. As of 10th Nov 2024, the rates quoted by the DI1F35, expressing a 10-year view, and the DI1F27, expressing a 2-year view, are at 12.49% and 13.09% respectively, resulting in an inverted yield curve. Considering Brazil’s strong economic fundamentals, the current inverted yield curve appears overly pessimistic. A trade, constructed with DI1F27 and DI1F35, that anticipates a normalization to a positive yield curve could be profitable. To set up the trade, we would have to calculate the sizing ratio from a Basis Point Value (BPV) neutral perspective. The computation is shown in the table below. We would consider taking a long position on the forward rate strategy by selling 100 DI1F27 futures and buying 55 DI1F35 futures. Each basis point move in the DI1F27 leg is 100 * R$ 14,46 = R$ 1.445 and each basis point move in the DI1F35 leg is 55 * R$ 27,35 = R$ 1.504. Evidently, each basis point move in the DI rate would have roughly the same profit and loss impact on either contract. This is achieved by the BPV neutral calculation. From Figure 9, we would place the stop-loss at -0,65, a historical support line, for a hypothetical maximum loss of 5 basis points, 5 * R$ 1.504 = R$ 7.520. Likewise, we would place the take-profit at 0,93, a historical resistance line, for a hypothetical gain of 153 basis points, 153 * R$ 1.446 = R$ 221.238. In conclusion, this relative value trade would be more favorable. As expressed in this trade, the normalization could happen as a result from either a rise in the DI1F35, a fall in the DI1F27, or a concurrent rise and fall in the DI1F35 and DI1F27 respectively. This proves that a relative value trade is likely to be less risky as compared to a directional bet on the Selic Target Rate using one DI Futures contract.
BMFBOVESPA:DI1F2035Long
by inspirante
Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 4📈🌐 Time to Look at the 'Big Picture and Levels' through the FXProfessor's BIG CHART 🌐📈 As we approach new milestones, Bitcoin has reached a key resistance level near $79,653, marking a significant point in its current cycle. This level aligns with a massive structural analysis I’ve been tracking, indicating that BTC could be on the verge of an impressive breakout. Here’s what we’re looking at next: 🔹 Massive Structural Resistance at $108K: 1,2,3 Setup at $108K: The classic FXProfessor 1,2,3 setup is inbound at the $108,000 mark, a historically strong resistance level. This level has been tested twice before, and the upcoming third attempt statistically holds a 63% potential to break higher. A successful breakout here would not only signal strength in BTC’s trend but could pave the way for substantial gains in this cycle. Key S/R Flip: Once BTC conquers this $108K structural level, it has the potential to flip from resistance to support, setting a robust foundation for the next leg up. 🔹 Potential for Early ATHs: Historically, Bitcoin has reached peak all-time highs around 565 days after each halving (as seen in the last two cycles). However, based on our current trajectory and the strength of this cycle, we might see the next ATH arrive even sooner. This could place the next peak well before the average 656 days post-halving mark, possibly accelerating BTC’s climb to new heights. 💡 Strategic Insight: For traders: Watch this Key Resistance Today: Just below $80K (specifically $79,600, a level I’ve been calling since BTC was at $18K). Next Target - Destination $108K: The next major level is $108K, marked by the massive structural resistance on the chart (the yellow levels). Long-term Bull Run Continuation: A breakout here could signal a continuation of the long-term bull trend. Those looking to accumulate positions might see this resistance level as a significant indicator of Bitcoin’s strength in the coming days. Third Attempt at Massive Resistance : This will be the third attempt to break the yellow massive structural resistance level at $108K (and as you know, third attempts often succeed!). 📈 Final Thoughts: Altcoins might also gain traction during BTC’s consolidation phases around these critical levels, presenting opportunities in both BTC and alt markets. This cycle’s technical indicators and structural resistance levels are aligning for what could be a remarkable year ahead. Stay tuned as we navigate these historic levels, and be prepared for potential peaks sooner than expected. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
1
Lunar 2024: The Volatile Dragon Favors the Loud Rooster!🐲 Welcoming 2024: The Volatile Dragon Favors the Loud Rooster 🍊📢 🌕🧧 Happy New Year Wishes: Celebrating the Year of the Wood Dragon with Our Asian Friends 🎋✨ As we usher in the New Year, I extend my heartiest greetings and warmest wishes to our Asian friends. 🎊 May this Year of the Wood Dragon bring you abundant health, happiness, and prosperity. Let the lucky number 8 pave your path with fortune, and red envelopes fill your days with joy and luck. 🐉🍀 FXPROFESSOR's Prescience vs. Biden's Election Mode Bravado (fail!) 🔮💼 Kicking off the new Dragon year was President Joe Biden with a tweet that sparked discussions—complete with laser eyes and a confident assertion. But let's set the record straight: it was the FXPROFESSOR's sharp analysis here on TradingView that predicted the climb of Bitcoin with uncanny accuracy. Remember the post from January 12, 2023? It wasn't just drawn up; it was prophesied. While Biden may be in full election mode, trying to score points with the crypto crowd, it's the charts that tell the true tale. Yes, SP500 at AtH, dolalr strong, economy strong and inflation better but we are all aware that situation is not really good (Ukraine, immigration, war in Middle East, etc etc) As for Bitcoin: it should had been already much higher Mr President! We don't buy this, sorry! 📢Biden's tweet: twitter.com 🐉Professor's Prophecy in January 2023 with BTC at 18k breakout based on predicting the fundamentals that followed (rates, inflation, election mode, ETF approval): (click on play!🐉) Rooster's Rally in the Dragon's Year: Trump's Potential Political Resurgence 📣🍊 2024’s lunar calendar bestows favor upon the Rooster, an emblem of outspokenness and assurance. In a twist of fate, this bodes well for the audacious Donald Trump. The year of the Dragon favors the Rooster, and Trump's resemblance to the Rooster—both in spirit and, as we'll see in a shared link, in imagery—is uncanny. Will the stars align for his political comeback? The markets watch with bated breath, pondering the impact of his potential return. Trump is the Rooster (God help us all): globalnews.ca and www.bbc.com Volatile Fire of the Dragon: Charting the Course 🐲📈 The Wood Dragon heralds a year of market ebbs and flows, demanding our keenest analytical prowess and foresight. In Forex, the British Pound against the Japanese Yen—aptly nicknamed 'the Dragon'—serves as a perfect metaphor for the expected volatility. This year more than ever, we must clutch our charts tightly and trust in the insights that have guided us through tumultuous times. Let's dive into this year with the knowledge that our astrological and economic journey will be as intertwined as ever. Here's to a year where our trading decisions are as informed as they are inspired, and where our discussions are as robust as the markets we navigate. And don't be mistaken: 1. The Charts will show us the way just like they did in 2023 (click on play...) 2. Politicians are dirty people, 99% of the time. I support nobody, not Trump nor sleepy Joe Bye-Biden. I wish the US could have had a normal human being for a president like they did for so many decades and not this bipolar shit-show....sorry! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
U.S. Elections: From Bullets to Green Candles🇺🇸 U.S. Elections: From Bullets to Green Candles 💡🌐 With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both embracing pro-crypto stances, the upcoming elections are set to pivot towards crypto discussions. Moving away from controversies like the assassination attempt on Trump, the focus now is on who can best integrate crypto into America's future. Trump's bold statement about potentially using Bitcoin to back the U.S. dollar has sparked significant interest and debate. Bullish Election Impact on Crypto Both candidates are increasingly engaging with the crypto sector. Kamala is considering attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference, while Trump is expected to deliver a historic message at the same event. This shift signifies a potential future where crypto plays a central role in America's economic strategy. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates, following the trend of other central banks globally, the financial landscape could be set for significant changes. Bullish again Previous Predictions and Market Impact In January 2023, I accurately predicted a strong Bitcoin entry point at $17,000, emphasizing inflation, interest rates, and solid fundamentals. This proved crucial for significant gains. 🌐 By February 2024, I predicted Trump's resilience amidst pressure, highlighting his favored status as "the loud rooster," and he indeed remained a prominent figure. My analysis of the geopolitical landscape was spot on, with Biden stepping down, leaving Harris to face the new favorite: The Rooster Trump. 🌐 Technical Analysis and Projections The chart shows a new nice flag, indicating potential significant upward movement. Expect big green candles, possibly pushing Bitcoin to $100,000 or even $160,000, influenced by the election dynamics. These bullish patterns are supported by strong fundamentals and increasing institutional interest. Political Influence on Market Sentiment The political climate has always had a profound impact on market sentiment. Trump's potential plan to use Bitcoin to back the U.S. dollar could revolutionize the financial landscape, driving significant market momentum. This unprecedented move might not only stabilize Bitcoin's value but also cement its status as a legitimate reserve asset. Future Outlook and Strategic Implications Looking ahead, the integration of crypto policies by either candidate could define America's financial future. Harris might continue the current administration's regulatory path, while Trump’s approach could be more radical, potentially transforming the U.S. dollar into a Bitcoin-backed currency. Investors should stay informed and prepared for rapid market changes. The anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. add another layer of complexity and opportunity, as they could stimulate the economy and potentially bolster the crypto market further. Let's hope for democracy and peace: no more bullets, big green candles. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 A bit of fun: 🏳️‍🌈Ka'mala (not Kama'la) Harris identifies as a she/her crypto enthousiast who keeps saying ''what can be unburdened by what has been" 🏴‍☠️ Trump has been dodging bullets like Neo in the Matrix , yelling 'FIGHT' seconds after being shot! Some serious Cowboy stuff! Who do you prefer and why? Let me know in the comments.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
1
MSTR: Is there any value here?MicroStrategy Incorporated ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has a current BTC balance of 252,220, with plans released during the October ‘24 earnings call to issue both $21 billion in equity and $21 billion in debt to finance further BTC purchases through 2026. The question becomes, is there value here? If the price of MSTR becomes increasingly dependent on the price of BTC, then why not just buy the underlying asset? The latter can likely already be answered. The price is entirely dependent. As noted in the company’s earnings call and outlined in the excerpt from the CoinGeek article below, MSTR’s software business has taken a backseat as the company has completely shifted its focus toward its BTC plan. “On October 30, MicroStrategy released its Q3 financial report card, revealing a sharp decline in revenue from its (formerly) core business intelligence software business, while expenses and net losses saw significant increases. Software revenue for the three months ending September 30 fell 10.3% year-on-year, while the rising costs of that revenue resulted in a net loss of $18.5 million.” During the call, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor insisted that MSTR is not purely a BTC proxy. Looking at the price performance for the past year, you can see that MSTR has outperformed BTC by a multiple greater than 4. As markets tend to do, this is likely the pricing in of future acquisitions. Unlike ETPs (or people, for that matter), MSTR has placed itself in a unique position, with the ability to utilize the various avenues of capital markets to increase its holdings. While this is fundamentally opportunistic, the increase in shares dilutes existing shareholder ownership, reducing their proportional share of MSTR's overall equity. However, given the long-term potential appreciation of BTC, the value of the underlying asset may offset this dilution, ultimately providing greater returns despite the increase in outstanding shares. This is no different than any other growth-oriented company, albeit Apple, NVIDIA, etc., actually produces something. If the price of the underlying asset goes down, this further decreases the BTC value per share, leading to a potential point of clarity for shareholders asking themselves, “why not just own the underlying asset?” Looking ahead, I do think MSTR provides a unique opportunity. Inevitably, given the scenario described above, the stock will continue to face elevated volatility (something that the company has noted as a positive). Given future declines in the price of the underlying asset (presumably in 2026 and 2027), this allows MSTR to accumulate more BTC, reducing its cost basis and optimistically allowing investors to enjoy increased volatility to the upside yet again.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by PeakInvestmentStrategies
2
Vita Coco: Hydrating Investors with Impressive Growth Prospects◉ Abstract The US coconut water market, projected to grow at 18.10% CAGR to $5.12 billion by 2029 from $1.89 billion in 2023, presents significant opportunities. Vita Coco, the market leader, demonstrates resilience amidst supply chain challenges. Notably, industry giants Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, which previously ventured into this space with ZICO and O.N.E., respectively, have since divested their interests, validating Vita Coco's competitive advantage. With a debt-free balance sheet, 15% revenue growth in FY2023, and expanding EBITDA margins, its fundamentals remain strong. This robust growth trajectory, combined with a solid financial foundation, positions the company as an attractive investment opportunity, offering potential for long-term value creation and substantial returns. Investors seeking exposure to the burgeoning natural and organic beverages market may find this growth story compelling. Read full analysis here……….. ◉ Introduction The coconut water beverage market in the United States is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing health consciousness among consumers and a rising demand for natural and organic beverages. Here are the key insights into the current state and future projections of this market. ◉ Current Market Size and Growth Rate The U.S. coconut water market was valued at USD 1.89 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 5.12 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 18.10% during this period. ◉ Key Growth Drivers ● Health Consciousness: Increasing consumer preference for natural, low-calorie beverages that offer hydration and essential electrolytes. ● Rising Demand for Functional Beverages: Coconut water is popular among athletes and health enthusiasts for its functional benefits, such as electrolyte replenishment. ● Growth of Organic Products: Rising demand for organic coconut water as consumers seek clean-label products free from additives. ● Innovative Product Offerings: Introduction of flavoured coconut water and convenient packaging options, such as cans, enhances appeal and accessibility. ● Increased Availability and Distribution: Wider retail presence in supermarkets, health food stores, and online platforms boosts market accessibility. ● Cultural Acceptance: Traditional significance of coconut water in regions where coconuts are common supports its global popularity. ● Sustainability Trends: Eco-friendly packaging and sustainable sourcing practices attract environmentally conscious consumers. ◉ Major Players in the US Coconut Water Industry 1. Vita Coco ● Market Position: Vita Coco is one of the leading brands in the coconut water segment, known for its wide range of flavours and strong brand recognition. ● Product Offerings: Offers plain and flavoured coconut water in various sizes. ● Market Share: Holds a substantial portion of the market, often cited as the top player. 2. Coca-Cola Company (ZICO) ● Market Position: Previously owned ZICO, a well-known coconut water brand, which Coca-Cola acquired in 2012 but later discontinued in 2020. ● Current Status: While ZICO is no longer on the market, Coca-Cola remains a significant player through its other beverage offerings. 3. PepsiCo (O.N.E.) ● Market Position: PepsiCo's O.N.E. brand was a notable competitor in the coconut water space until its divestment in 2021. ● Current Status: PepsiCo has shifted focus away from this segment but retains influence through its broader beverage portfolio. 4. C2O Pure Coconut Water ● Market Position: C2O is recognized for its pure coconut water sourced from Thailand, emphasizing quality and natural ingredients. ● Market Share: It holds a significant share among niche brands. 5. Taste Nirvana ● Market Position: Specializes in high-quality coconut water sourced from Thailand, focusing on authentic taste and premium offerings. ● Product Range: Includes both plain and flavoured varieties. 6. Amy & Brian Naturals ● Market Position: Offers 100% natural coconut water with no additives, appealing to health-conscious consumers. ● Distribution: Available through various retail channels, including health food stores. 7. Other Notable Brands ● Additional brands such as Raw C, Bai, and Harmless Harvest also contribute to the market's competitive landscape, offering unique products that cater to different consumer preferences. In an industry poised for robust growth, we will conduct an in-depth examination of Vita Coco's technical and fundamental aspects. ◉ Company Overview The Vita Coco Company Inc. NASDAQ:COCO is a leading developer, marketer, and distributor of coconut water products and other beverages. Its portfolio includes Vita Coco coconut water, coconut oil, and coconut milk, as well as Runa plant-based energy drinks, Ever & Ever packaged water, and PWR LIFT protein-infused fitness drinks. The company also offers private label coconut water and oil solutions for retailers. With a global presence spanning the United States, Canada, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific, Vita Coco's products are available through various channels, including club stores, food and drug retailers, convenience stores, e-commerce platforms, and foodservice providers. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in New York, New York, the company formerly operated as All Market Inc. before adopting its current name in September 2021. ◉ Investment Advice 💡 Buy The Vita Coco Company NASDAQ:COCO ● Buy Range - 30.3 - 31.3 ● Sell Target - 43 - 44 ● Potential Return - 37% - 40% ● Approx Holding Period - 12-14 months ◉ Market Capitalization - $2.01 B ◉ Technical Analysis ● Weekly Chart ➖ Since its debut in 2021, the stock has undergone a prolonged consolidation phase, during which it developed a Rounding Bottom pattern. ➖ Following the breakout, the stock price surged initially but quickly transitioned into another consolidation phase, forming a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. ➖ Recently, a strong breakout has set the stage for considerable upward momentum. ● Daily Chart ➖ On the daily chart, an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is clearly visible. ➖ After a recent breakout, the stock price is now aiming for new highs. ◉ Relative Strength The stock's performance over the past year has not matched up to the Nasdaq index, achieving a modest return of 22.5%, in contrast to the Nasdaq's impressive 40% return. ◉ Location Wise Revenue Breakdown Total Revenue in 2023: $494 million ● Americas Segment: ➖ Total Revenue from Americas: Approximately $424 million. ➖ Revenue from the United States: Around $401.97 million, reflecting substantial growth from $352.73 million in the previous year. ● International Segment: ➖ Total Revenue from International: Approximately $70 million, indicating a smaller contribution compared to the Americas. ◉ Revenue and Profit Analysis ● Year-over-Year ➖ For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported a revenue of $493.6 million, marking a 15% increase from the $427.8 million recorded in fiscal year 2022. ➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also saw a remarkable rise, reaching $57.5 million, a significant jump from just $12.3 million in FY22. ➖ Additionally, the EBITDA margin expanded to 11.6%, up from a mere 2.9% during the same timeframe. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the most recent quarter ending in September, revenue fell to $133 million, down from $144 million in June 2024. This figure also represents a decline from $138 million in the same quarter last year. ➖ The EBITDA for this latest quarter was $20.8 million, a decrease from $30.2 million in June 2024. ➖ In September, the diluted EPS experienced a modest rise, increasing to $1 (LTM) from $0.94 (LTM) in June 2024. ◉ Valuation 1. P/E Ratio ● Current P/E vs. Peer Average P/E ➖ When examining the P/E ratio, COCO is at 33.9x, which suggests a considerable overvaluation compared to the peer average of 22.4x. ● Current P/E vs. Industry Average P/E ➖ In the context of the Global Beverage industry, COCO's P/E ratio of 33.7x is significantly higher than the industry average of 18.8x, indicating that it is relatively expensive. 2. P/B Ratio ● Current P/B vs. Peer Average P/B ➖ Looking at the P/B ratio, COCO's current value of 8x is lower than the average of its peers, which stands at 10.5x, suggesting a relative undervaluation. ● Current P/B vs. Industry Average P/B ➖ In comparison to the industry average, COCO's P/B ratio of 8x indicates a significant overvaluation, as the industry average is only 5.1x. 3. PEG Ratio ➖ A PEG ratio of 0.6 suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ In fiscal year 2023, operational cash flow experienced remarkable growth, reaching $107 million, a substantial increase from only just $11 million in fiscal year 2022. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ The company proudly maintains a completely debt-free status, showcasing its strong financial health. ◉ Earnings per Share (EPS) Growth Forecasts ➖ Experts forecast that the earnings per share (EPS) could increase from $1 to $1.09 by December 2025, and further rise to $1.3 by December 2026. ◉ Top Shareholders ➖ Blackrock has significantly increased its investment in this stock, now holding an impressive 5.55% stake, which marks a 7.4% rise since the end of the June quarter. ➖ On the other hand, The Vanguard Group has a stake of approximately 4.31% in the company, representing a 3% rise from the June quarter. ◉ Conclusion The coconut water market is booming due to health trends, functional beverage demand, innovation, and wider availability. Vita Coco, despite Q3 supply chain woes, is optimistic about the future and is investing in inventory and production capacity. Despite overvaluation, the company's growth potential is significant, driven by the rising demand for organic products.
NASDAQ:COCOLong
by NaranjCapital
Bitcoin 6-12 months analysisBitcoin experienced a large price increase in the past few months, as you had analyzed the price of Bitcoin from $20,000 in the past, this time I will also analyze the path of Bitcoin from the price of $64,000, Bitcoin experienced a total increase up to $80,000. but in two different cases, Bitcoin can decrease to the price limit of $50,000 and move from this price to $80,000, or in the same price and range that it is at this moment, directly to 80. $000 moves and reaches this price, I consider targets for traders which are $70,000, $75,000 and $80,000 respectively for this analysis. In addition to this increase, consider that all digital currencies react positively to this increase because all digital currencies have a positive correlation with Bitcoin, only the percentage of correlation between them is different. Sasha Charkhchian
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by sashacharkhchian
1
Japan 225: Amid Bearish Momentum and Global UncertaintyThe Japan 225 index is currently trading below the FibCloud, signaling a potential downward trend. My target for this short trade is around the 35,500- 36,200price area, where I anticipate significant support based on historical price movements and Fib levels. For now, I’ll let the trade run, while closely monitoring price action near the 40,000 zone. It’s crucial that the price remains below this level for the short trade to remain valid. A recovery back above 40,000 could signal a reversal, and in such a case, I may reassess my strategy. Technical Overview: • Partials: 38,000- 37,000area. • Stop Loss: Monitoring the 40,000 zone as a key level of resistance. • Key Indicators: The FibCloud provides strong bearish signals, and the declining price action suggests continued selling pressure. • Risk Management: I’ll adjust the stop-loss level accordingly if the market shows signs of recovery or increased volatility. Taking partials at key support levels to secure profit remains an essential part of this strategy. Fundamental Overview: • Asia-Pacific Market Sentiment: As noted in the news, Asia-Pacific markets are mixed with attention on China’s loan prime rate announcement and Japan’s general election at the end of the week. While China’s central bank cut the one- and five-year LPRs by 25 basis points, this has not done enough to boost confidence, especially with property stocks tumbling. • Japan’s Economic Data: Japan’s exports fell by 1.7% in September compared to the same period last year, signaling a potential slowdown in trade. Additionally, the Nikkei closed marginally lower recently, indicating bearish market conditions. • Global Outlook: Japan’s market might be impacted further by inflation figures and GDP data expected this week, adding volatility and making the short trade setup timely. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
OANDA:JP225USDShort
by AR33_
2