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Fundamental Analysis

Mechanical rangesMany traders will talk about things like "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) and think they have found something new. The truth is, everything in trading stems back to Liquidity. There is no "Algo" nobody is out to get you specifically. The market is always right, where you position yourself is your own choice. I have written several posts on mechanical trading, recorded a number of streams. The more mechanical you can make the process, the less the emotions have a chance to kick your ass. Let me give you a very simple method of being able to identify the ranges. Ignore the timeframes as this will work on any of them, on most instruments. (I say most, as some behave differently due to how it attracts liquidity). Lets assume high end crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and of course Forex in the general sense, stocks, commodities etc. This is simple - only 2 rules. You start by zooming out and giving yourself a general feel for the trend. Let's say this looks to be an uptrend - we now need to understand the rules. An opposing candle can simply be defined by a different colour. If the trend is up (Green) and we see a red candle - then it's an opposing candle. The inverse is true, if we are down and the trend is Red. Then a Green candle would be opposing. This is only half of the story. The second rule is a pullback candle or even a sequence of candles. This simply means either the very same opposing candle that doesn't make a new high or low (depending on the trend up not making fresh highs or down not taking new lows). In this image, you can see we have in one candle both an opposing and pullback in one candle. This means we can now mark the high of the range. Working backwards to identify the swing range low. This easy method means I can draw a range exactly the same and mechanically every single time. Giving me a mechanical range. We could then get a lot more technical by looking for liquidity, 50% of the range or places such as supply or demand areas. But these are all for other posts. For now, getting a range on the higher timeframes means you can work down and down into a timeframe you are likely to want to trade on. These ranges will give clues to draws and runs of liquidity. This will also help identify changes in the character and fresh breaks of structure. Here's another post I posted on the mechanical structures and techniques. More in the next post. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
ETH Forming Bullish AB=CD Pattern | Eyes on Breakout #Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong bullish momentum on the 4H timeframe and is currently developing a classic AB=CD harmonic pattern, which often precedes a continuation of trend. ✅ Key Observations: #ETH is holding within a solid uptrend structure No signs of bearish divergence or reversal patterns yet Momentum remains healthy, with buyers in control 🔍 What to Watch For: We are closely watching the previous Higher High (HH) — currently acting as a key resistance level. A 4H candle close above this level will serve as confirmation for the continuation of the bullish trend. 📈 Trading Plan: Once #ETH breaks above the resistance and confirms with a close, we’ll look to enter a long position with proper risk management and stop-loss placement below recent structure. 💬 What’s your bias on #ETH in the short term? Are you already long, or waiting for the breakout too? 📌 Don’t forget to Like, Comment, and Follow for more clean setups and strategy-based analysis! #ETH #Ethereum #CryptoTrading #ABCDPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #Harmonics #TradingSetup #Breakout #PriceAction
Long
by mudusir
JASMY/USDT – Potential Bullish Breakout Ahead?Hey traders! 👋 #JASMY is currently consolidating sideways on the 4H timeframe, right after completing a harmonic pattern – a strong technical signal often followed by a trend reversal or continuation. 🔍 What I’m Watching: ✅ Harmonic Pattern Completed: The recent price structure aligns well with a bullish harmonic setup. 🔄 Sideways Movement: Market is in accumulation, signaling potential energy buildup. 📈 Bullish Divergence forming on RSI/MACD (waiting for confirmation). 🚀 Key Resistance Level: If price breaks and retests this resistance, it could trigger a strong uptrend. 📌 Trade Plan: We'll wait for confirmation: Bullish divergence on 4H indicators. Clean breakout and retest of the resistance zone. Enter long with proper risk management (SL below recent swing low). 💡 Patience is key – no entry until confirmation. 💬 What do you think? Will #JASMY break out soon or continue ranging? 👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments! ❤️ Like if you find this helpful 📌 Follow for more clean setups and real-time updates! #JASMY #CryptoTrading #HarmonicPattern #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishSetup #BreakoutTrade #Altcoins #TradingView #CryptoCommunity #TrendReversal #PriceAction #RiskManagement
Long
by mudusir
EURUSD Outlook at Risk of Changing in the Short and Medium TermEURUSD is feeling the bearish pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate. These risks are driving traders toward safe havens, particularly the US dollar and US government debt, which still serve as the backbone of global reserves. The sharp decline in the dollar in recent months has added to this dynamic, but it’s not over yet for euro bulls in all the short, medium, and long term. However, the options market is flashing a rare bearish signal for EURUSD that traders should not ignore. Risk reversals across all maturities from 1 week to 1 year are falling. The 1-week risk reversal dropped sharply from 0.1075 to -1.10 since last Monday, one of the steepest moves seen recently, even though EURUSD itself has remained relatively flat. The breakout and successful retest of the long-term downtrend from 2008 to 2025 was a key turning point. As long as EURUSD stays above this trendline, dips are likely to be seen as buying opportunities by long-term investors. For the medium term, however, a bearish signal (for EURUSD) has emerged from the dollar index. The index broke out of the wedge formation (update the post above to see), retested it, and has since resumed its upward move, creating a strong bullish technical setup. Now, everything comes down to short-term support. EURUSD has been in an upward trend channel since the retest of the long-term trendline and had also formed a shorter-term trend within that channel. This shorter trendline has now broken and been retested. The next critical level is the 1.1425–1.1440 support zone. If this area fails to hold, it could shift both the short- and medium-term direction to the downside. Note: In this post, "short term" refers to up to one week, "medium term" to one to several weeks, and "long term" to several months to a few years.
Short
by ftdsystem
What to Expect From FOMC and the Market’s Reaction to It? With tariffs and Middle East escalation in focus, central banks have somewhat fallen to the backstage recently. But today’s FOMC meeting might change that. The federal funds rate upper band is most likely to stay at 4.50% with a unanimous vote. However, today’s focus will not be on the interest rate itself but rather on the dot plot and updated economic forecasts. Inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target, but that trend may have shifted with the latest CPI report. Although recent inflation data came in better than expected, inflation appears to be flattening above 2% and could start rising again in the near future. Last week’s CPI and Core CPI reports showed early signs of this, and the upcoming PCE and Core PCE data could confirm those signals. Why is inflation still low despite tariffs? The main reason is frontloading. U.S. consumers and firms frontloaded many goods, especially durable good, ahead of the tariff hikes. Now, with tariffs in effect, consumption has slowed, and many firms are holding elevated inventory levels. In this environment, firms are reluctant to raise prices due to lower demand and high stockpiles. This suppressive effect is expected to gradually fade, allowing prices to rise. For that reason, the Fed is unlikely to begin rate cuts prematurely. Inflation could make a peak in the last quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026 in our view. But the possible oil price spike due to Iran – Israel war could change this projection. At the March FOMC meeting when the economic projections were last updated, some of the tariff impacts were already incorporated. Inflation and unemployment were revised higher, while GDP was revised lower. Despite this, the Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts for both 2025 and 2026. However, since March, newly announced tariffs have been more extensive than expected. Some board members including Jerome Powell stated that. As a result, a similar adjustment to the forecasts may occur today: higher inflation and unemployment, lower GDP. Accordingly, the dot plot could show only one rate cut for 2025 and three for 2026. Why would the Fed cut more in 2026? Because the tariff impact is expected to be a one-time shock, not a structural shift. Once the effects wear off, the Fed could ease more. But there are some risks to that. According to some new research and New York FED President Williams, not only long term inflation expectations needs to be anchored, rather the “whole curve” So during a possible inflation peak came with tariff effects, FED could not cut repeatedly and should closely watch the effects on short-term inflation expectations. The main focus of today’s FOMC will be on the economic forecasts and the dot plot. If the new projections reflect only one cut for 2025, this would be bullish for the dollar. If the 2026 projection also shows only two cuts, that would be even more bullish. On the other hand, if the current forecast of two cuts in both 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, the reaction could be slightly dovish for the dollar. During the post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell is likely to focus on uncertainties related to tariffs and energy prices, especially given the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Powell may downplay the hawkish tone of the dot plot during the conference, potentially reducing the overall market impact. With all this in mind, the dollar index could either break out of the descending wedge formation on the hourly chart or continue drifting toward the lower boundary. Holding above the 99 level could be key for short-term price action.
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
Follow the trend and go short, and buy when the price falls backAffected by the situation in the Middle East, gold opened higher and lower again on Monday, and the trend was exactly the same as last Monday. After the opening, gold fell back to the 3352-3355 line and fluctuated. We planned to arrange long orders near 3350, but gold went up directly and did not give an entry opportunity. During the rebound, gold was blocked and under pressure at the 3366 line, and at the same time, there were signs of stagflation at high levels. Combined with the short-term adjustment needs, the strategy was to arrange short orders near 3364 and successfully stop profit at the target of 3350. Then we went long at the 3348-3350 line, which is also the preset long entry area. The current target continues to focus on the 3370-3380 area. So far, although gold opened high and went low, the overall bullish trend channel has not been broken, and the retracement to long is still the current mainstream direction.The specific points are subject to the bottom 🌐 notification. From the current trend, the support below focuses on the 3340-3345 area. Combined with the stimulus of the Middle East situation over the weekend, the short-term upper resistance focuses on the 3380-3385 ​​area. The expectation of breakthrough is still there, and the focus is on the suppression performance of the 3400-3415 line. The overall strategy continues to rely on the idea of buying on pullbacks. Watch more and do less in the middle position, chase orders cautiously, and wait patiently for clear signals at key points before intervening. Gold operation strategy: Gold retracement near the 3340-3350 line to do more, the target is 3370-3380.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
Analysis and strategy of gold trend today 6.23 📣Risk aversion heats up over the weekend. Gold opened high and moved higher in the morning, but quickly fell back, presenting a "lure to buy" market, and the bulls seemed short-lived. Under the current situation, the early rebound is under pressure at 3390-95. It is recommended to go short with the trend, keep a close eye on the moving average trend and key points, and grasp the trading rhythm. Operation suggestions: Short near 3390-3392, defend 3400, target 3350-3340 Buy near 3350-3348, defend 3340, target 3390-3400
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on IranOil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high. Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100. Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart The ascending channel plotted last week remains valid. The fact that the price is pulling back (as indicated by the arrow) from the high set at the market open suggests the market had already priced in a significant risk of US involvement in the Iran-Israel military conflict. Key points: → Technical support in the near term may be provided by the area where the lower boundary of the blue channel intersects with the $76 level (which acted as resistance at the end of last week). → Ultimately, fundamental factors and official statements will play a decisive role in oil price movements. It’s worth noting that, following the strikes on its territory, Iran is threatening retaliation against the US. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Report – June 23, 2025Geopolitical Shock: U.S. Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites Redefine Market Landscape The Trump administration’s decision to authorize precision airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities marks a major escalation in Middle East hostilities, significantly reshaping the global risk environment. Seven B-2 stealth bombers originating from Missouri carried out a long-range mission that deployed bunker-busting GBU-57 bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear installations in Fordow and Natanz. Additionally, Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a U.S. submarine struck facilities in Isfahan. Pentagon officials describe “extremely severe damage,” though assessments remain preliminary. The attack also marks the first known combat use of the GBU-57, highlighting both the symbolic and tactical weight of the operation. While the U.S. maintains it is not at war with Iran but targeting its nuclear program specifically, Iran's leadership views this as a red-line breach. Tehran's immediate retaliation has so far focused on Israeli targets, but broader reprisals against U.S. assets and personnel in the region appear imminent. The Revolutionary Guards and Houthi allies have threatened to strike U.S. vessels in the Red Sea and disrupt oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy markets. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that no additional strikes are planned unless American interests are targeted, yet the situation remains highly unstable. Trump’s narrative aims to project decisive strength while avoiding a prolonged conflict. However, whether this operation achieves a limited military objective or drags the U.S. into broader war remains uncertain. Part 2: Energy Markets Under Siege – Oil Price Dynamics and Strategic Implications The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have triggered a spike in oil prices as markets react to the heightened risk of regional escalation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures climbed 2.5% and 2.4% respectively in early Asian trading, pricing in immediate geopolitical risk. Front-month Brent is now hovering around $78.89 per barrel, with analysts forecasting potential surges to $90–$100 per barrel should supply chains be disrupted, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, the transit route for up to 30% of the world’s seaborne oil. According to Danske Bank, a complete closure of the strait could slash global oil supply by over 18 million barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 20% of daily output. That would constitute the most severe supply shock since the 1970s oil crises. Phillip Nova and ANZ analysts stress that while prices have initially stabilized, much of the “war premium” has yet to fully materialize unless Iran retaliates aggressively or Western energy infrastructure is damaged. OPEC+ spare capacity may act as a temporary buffer, but traders are increasingly positioning for long-term supply insecurity. The oil volatility index (OVX) has already surged to a five-year high, outpacing the VIX and reflecting concentrated hedging behavior via bullish options. Goldman Sachs reports an “extreme skew” in call options on crude futures, indicating strong institutional conviction for upward price movement. Panmure Liberum projects that a sustained 20% increase in oil prices over the next three months could boost European energy sector returns by 7.8%, with EPS growth forecasts across the sector already at 18%. U.S. oil majors like Exxon Mobil, APA, Devon Energy, and Diamondback Energy are poised to benefit given their dividend discipline and asset-light structures. Exxon, for instance, is forecast to yield 3.5% while paying out ~60% of 2025 net income, higher than industry average but seen as sustainable in a $90 oil environment. Part 3: Inflation Dynamics, Fed Strategy, and the Impact of Tariffs Markets are navigating a complex monetary landscape as the Federal Reserve grapples with rising price pressures, many of which stem from tariff-induced cost increases and geopolitical instability. The next major indicator, May’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, is expected to show headline inflation at 2.3% year-on-year (up from 2.1% in April) and core PCE at 2.6% (from 2.5%). These figures, while modest, are significant because they suggest that President Trump’s April tariff hike is beginning to feed into real consumer prices. Economists warn this is only the beginning. ING analysts describe the current calm as “the calm before the storm,” expecting tariff-driven price hikes to become visible from July onwards. If inflation accelerates further, it would seriously challenge the Fed’s ability to justify rate cuts, particularly as Powell continues to emphasize a “data-driven” and “risk-managed” approach. Markets had been pricing in two rate cuts for 2025, beginning in October. However, stickier inflation and rising geopolitical risks make this increasingly uncertain. Powell recently admitted to being in a “very foggy time,” indicating that clear signals are lacking. Traders are now more cautious, and the Fed itself remains split: 10 out of 19 officials favor rate cuts this year, while 7 expect no cuts at all. This divergence is exacerbated by real-world shocks, particularly Trump's foreign and trade policies. For example, the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff package disrupted supply chains and added upward pressure on goods costs, despite some temporary demand surges as businesses front-loaded inventory. That trend has started to fade, and the inflationary effects are taking hold. Analysts like Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI suggest that unless the labor market deteriorates meaningfully, the Fed will be reluctant to stimulate and risk fueling further inflation. Part 4: Global Trade Shifts, China’s Export Strategy, and the U.S.–China Financial Decoupling In response to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical instability, China is aggressively reorienting its trade and capital strategies. Trade data shows a sharp decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., but a simultaneous and strategic pivot toward Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. In May, Chinese exports to Europe jumped 12% year-on-year, with Germany alone rising 22%, while shipments to Southeast Asia rose 15%. Factory owners across Zhejiang province, China’s second-largest exporter, are scrambling to secure new markets and insulate their operations from escalating U.S. trade barriers. This shift is more than tactical, it reflects a structural decoupling from the American consumer market. Tariff rates on many Chinese goods remain above 50%, with fears that Trump may reinstate even more punitive measures. Factory managers report that U.S.-bound shipments now account for a shrinking share of their revenues, some dropping from 60% to 30% within a year. Manufacturers like Shaoxing Sulong Outdoor and Shaoxing Shangyu Lihua are expanding to Europe, the Middle East, and local e-commerce platforms. The Chinese government is reinforcing this shift with subsidies for export credit insurance, trade fair attendance, and initiatives to promote domestic consumption of export-grade goods. Zhejiang province alone is nurturing 100,000 cross-border e-commerce sellers and partnering with supermarkets and online marketplaces to absorb unsold inventories. Simultaneously, the financial relationship between the U.S. and Chinese markets is deteriorating rapidly. Since 2019, over 80 Chinese companies have delisted from U.S. exchanges. The NYSE and Nasdaq now host less than 2% of their capitalization from Chinese stocks, a dramatic decline from the heyday of IPOs like Alibaba’s in 2014. More recent listings have been small, speculative, and at times scandal-ridden, such as the collapse of Luckin Coffee. Washington is actively pressuring U.S. pension funds and financial institutions to divest from Chinese companies. The SEC faces mounting pressure to ban firms with alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party, slave labor, or national-security threats. Even China’s own regulators are pushing top companies like Shein and Didi to list in Hong Kong or remain private. As a result, Hong Kong has become the main IPO venue for major Chinese firms, aided ironically by Wall Street banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America. This trade and financial decoupling underscores a broader geopolitical realignment, with profound implications for investors. The U.S.–China economic axis that once drove global growth is fracturing, and capital is flowing toward more politically aligned markets. Part 5: Energy Markets, Oil Price Risks, and the U.S.–Iran Escalation Following President Trump’s direct military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, global oil markets are in a state of heightened alert. The initial operation involved B-2 bombers deploying 14 bunker-buster bombs on Fordow and other key nuclear sites, with additional cruise missiles launched from U.S. submarines. This first-ever combat use of the GBU-57 “Massive Ordnance Penetrator” demonstrates the severity of Washington’s commitment to dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without formally entering a prolonged war. Despite Trump’s assertion that “we’re not at war with Iran,” Tehran and its proxies have begun retaliatory strikes, primarily against Israel for now. But threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, potential disruptions in the Red Sea by Houthi forces, and calls in Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz raise red flags for global energy markets. The Strait handles 20–30% of the world’s oil flow, and its closure would amount to an 18 million barrels/day supply shock, nearly 20% of global output, per Danske Bank analysis. The market’s reaction has been swift but measured. Brent crude surged to $78.89/bbl (+2.4%) and WTI to $75.67/bbl (+2.5%), as investors priced in a “war premium.” Yet the oil market remains in limbo: while sentiment is bullish, actual supply disruptions have not materialized. As CBA’s Vivek Dhar notes, the real driver of $100+ oil will be evidence of shipping blockades or facility destruction, not speculation alone. Brent at $90–95 is plausible in the event of retaliatory action by Iran. Goldman Sachs’ analysis of three-month options skews shows the highest implied volatility for bullish calls versus bearish puts in 25 years. This reflects overwhelming investor demand for upside exposure, a rare pricing pattern signaling traders expect a substantial rally. ANZ and RBC Capital also highlight the rising risk of damage to Gulf infrastructure, which could catapult prices well beyond current levels. Yet markets have shown remarkable resilience. The VIX remains muted compared to the 2023 tariff shock, while crude volatility (OVX) is spiking, indicating that energy markets are absorbing geopolitical risk far more intensely than equities. This divergence implies that energy stocks and commodities could outperform broader indices in the event of further escalation. Strategically, investors are rotating into dividend-paying oil stocks with solid fundamentals. APA (yield 4.9%), Diamondback (2.6%), Devon (2.8%), and Permian Resources (4.1%) all pay less than 40% of 2025 net income in dividends and offer upside if oil prices remain above $70. ExxonMobil, yielding 3.5%, is more leveraged to price but offers size and balance sheet strength. Canadian producers like ARC Resources (2.4% yield, aggressive buybacks) are also drawing attention due to flexible capital strategies. Conclusion: The energy sector is now a frontline investment space in geopolitical strategy. While oil may already reflect a partial war premium, any actual disruption, particularly in Hormuz, will send prices sharply higher, potentially reigniting inflation and delaying Fed rate cuts. Investors should be prepared for volatility, but also opportunity, especially in energy equities and structured trades such as call spreads on ETFs like USO. Part 6: Market Reaction, Credit Liquidity, and Investor Positioning Under Geopolitical and Policy Stress The intensifying geopolitical turmoil, centered around Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, has not yet catalyzed a market crash, but beneath the surface, cracks are forming in credit spreads, investor sentiment, and sector participation. The S&P 500, while only 3% off its all-time high, is displaying signs of internal weakness masked by headline stability. Over the past two weeks, the index has traded in a narrow 1.8-point range, the tightest since December 2024. This tightness reflects both indecision and complacency. While major indices remain resilient, a concerning breadth divergence is emerging. Fundstrat’s Mark Newton reports that the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has slipped below 50%, and just under 40% are above their 20-day average. The equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF is down 1.5% over the past month, while tech-driven cap-weighted indices remain buoyant, suggesting fragility if megacaps falter. Volatility metrics confirm the growing divergence. The Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index has spiked to near five-year highs, while the equity VIX remains muted. This divergence, as noted by Citi’s Scott Chronert, shows how geopolitical risk is being priced into oil, not equities, a phenomenon that cannot persist indefinitely. Quant Insight notes a waning correlation between the VIX and S&P 500 moves, suggesting that risk appetite is higher than it appears, or that equity markets are underestimating tail risks. On the macro front, the Fed’s wait-and-see posture continues, with Powell reiterating uncertainty over the inflation trajectory amid tariff pressures. While headline CPI for May came in at 2.4%, below expectations, core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to tick up to 2.6% in May from 2.5% in April. Analysts, including ING, warn this may be the “calm before the storm,” as July’s data begins to reflect full tariff pass-through. The futures market is still pricing in two rate cuts this year, beginning in October, but expectations remain fragile and data-dependent. Credit markets are showing early signs of tightening. Though no full-scale panic is evident yet, spreads on lower-grade debt have widened modestly as investors reassess risk in a stagflationary environment. Liquidity remains thin in parts of the high-yield market, and primary issuance has slowed. In contrast, investment-grade debt, especially from oil majors and defense contractors, is gaining interest as investors reposition portfolios to benefit from war-driven fiscal priorities. Internationally, appetite for the U.S. dollar has diminished in Asia, per DBS strategists. Asian currencies like the SGD and HKD have appreciated, reflecting inflows as investors diversify away from dollar assets. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have seen heightened demand, with yields falling across the curve following a strong 5-year auction. The BOJ is not expected to raise rates aggressively, keeping Japanese yields attractive amid global uncertainty. Conclusion: The global financial system is at a precarious crossroads. Equities are holding, but under the surface, technical deterioration and volatility divergence are flashing warning signs. Fixed income markets are rotating into quality, especially defense- and energy-related names. Liquidity is tightening slowly, with further stress likely if oil breaches $90 or core inflation surprises to the upside. Part 7: Sector-Specific Analysis, Strategic Positioning, and Outlook for the Week Ahead As geopolitical uncertainty and policy ambiguity persist, investors are increasingly turning to select sectors and assets that offer resilience, strategic leverage, or asymmetrical upside. Below is a breakdown of how key sectors are positioned and what the market dynamics suggest for the coming days and weeks: 1. Energy Sector: Oil’s Strategic Premium With the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s potential retaliation, including threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets are on edge. Brent futures are up 2.4% at $78.89, while WTI has jumped to $75.67. Analysts including CBA’s Vivek Dhar see $100/barrel as a viable short-term target if Iran substantially disrupts shipping. ANZ’s Daniel Hynes notes a supply shock could push oil to $90–$95/barrel. Danske Bank warns that a full Hormuz closure would cut global supply by nearly 20 million barrels/day, almost 20% of the total. This dwarfs past supply shocks and would be catastrophic for both inflation and industrial production globally. Investor Strategy: Focus on large, low-cost producers with strong dividend policies and hedging flexibility: Exxon Mobil (XOM): 3.5% yield, diversified base, strong dividend coverage. APA & Diamondback (FANG): Payouts below 40% of earnings, asset returns aligned with industry averages. Permian Resources (PR) & Devon Energy (DVN): U.S.-centric and operationally nimble. Canadian producers like ARC Resources also offer supplemental upside, blending modest yields (2.4%) with capital returns via buybacks. 2. Defense & Aerospace: War-Driven Tailwinds With the U.S. explicitly targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure using B-2 bombers and GBU-57 bunker busters, defense stocks are gaining renewed attention. The U.S. is unlikely to launch further strikes unless provoked, but the scale of this preemptive action elevates long-term defense spending prospects. Investor Strategy: Defense majors such as Raytheon (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) benefit from this new operational reality. The U.S. is already building out missile defense in the Middle East, while allies like Israel are expected to increase their defense procurements, potentially financed with U.S. foreign aid. 3. Technology: Internals Weakening Amid Breadth Divergence Despite megacap tech keeping indices afloat, breadth is deteriorating. Over 60% of S&P 500 stocks now trade below their 50-day moving averages. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is down 1.5% in the past month vs. a 3% rise in tech-focused ETFs. Investor Strategy: Exercise caution with overexposed names. Consider reallocating toward: Broadcom (AVGO) and Nvidia (NVDA): For AI exposure, but take partial profits. Shift some exposure into infrastructure tech or AI-software-as-a-service plays with earnings durability but lower valuations (e.g., Salesforce (CRM)). 4. Small-Caps and International Equities: Tactical Diversification Domestic small-cap stocks continue to underperform, but foreign small-caps, especially in non-tariff-affected sectors, offer compelling value. Funds like Brandes International Small Cap and Avantis International Small-Cap Value ETF are outperforming with annualized returns over 15%. Managers are targeting niche names such as: Magyar Telekom (Hungary) – 50% market share, local monopoly. Japan Elevator Service Holdings – strong growth, 23% profit margins. Investor Strategy: Use actively managed vehicles with deep on-the-ground research or ETFs with proven quantitative screens. 5. Credit & Bonds: Return to Quality With the Fed cautious on rate cuts amid reaccelerating inflation, bond investors are shifting back to high-quality, longer-duration instruments. Corporate credit is showing early-stage stress, particularly in lower tranches. Investor Strategy: Focus on investment-grade debt, especially from oil and defense issuers. Allocate to long-duration Treasuries for capital protection. Avoid high-yield for now unless oil prices breach $90 sustainably. 6. Vaccine & Pharma Sector: Under Pressure from Political Appointments RFK Jr.'s appointment and the firing of the immunization advisory committee has spooked biotech investors. Stocks like Moderna and Novavax are down 36% and 18%, respectively. Merck, though not a pure play, is down 17% as fears grow that existing recommendations (e.g., Gardasil) could be rolled back. Investor Strategy: Caution is warranted. Some companies may benefit long-term if the FDA holds the line, but political risks will weigh heavily in the short term. Look to companies with broad portfolios and global exposure. 7. AI & Regulation: Big Tech’s Shield Big Tech is lobbying for a 10-year federal ban on state-level AI regulation. If passed, this would shield companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta from fragmented compliance costs. Critics call it a power grab, but the budget bill’s passage by July 4 would solidify their advantage. Investor Strategy: Maintain core positions but expect growing scrutiny. Midcap AI companies may benefit from looser oversight and acquisition potential. 8. China Trade & Delistings: Fragmenting Global Markets More than 80 Chinese companies have delisted from U.S. exchanges since 2019. Delisting pressures are accelerating amid scrutiny over VIE structures and national security concerns. While some IPOs continue on Nasdaq, most are speculative and illiquid. Investor Strategy: Reduce exposure to U.S.-listed Chinese ADRs. Instead, access Chinese growth via Hong Kong listings or multinational partners (e.g., Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor). Macro Summary: Risk-Reward Outlook Bullish Forces: Oil supply shock potential, defense spending, tech lobbying gains. Bearish Forces: Inflation upside risk, Fed delay, tariff pass-through, credit deterioration. Neutral/Mixed: Equity index stability masking internal weakness. Part 8: Portfolio Positioning, Asset Allocation, and Thematic Strategy for the Weeks Ahead With the macro landscape defined by geopolitical escalation, domestic political uncertainty, and global supply-side risk, investors face an increasingly bifurcated environment—one where aggregate indices appear calm, but sector-specific volatility and dispersion are rising. As a senior analyst advising institutional portfolios, I recommend the following strategic blueprint: 1. Recommended Portfolio Allocation (Short-Term Tactical Tilt) Asset Class Weighting (%) Change Rationale U.S. Equities 35 ▼ Breadth deterioration and tech overextension. Favor quality over growth. International Equities 20 ▲ Hedge against USD volatility. Favor Europe ex-UK, Japan, and small-caps. Energy & Commodities 15 ▲▲ Brent-WTI divergence and Hormuz risk support overweight. Bonds (IG + Duration) 20 ▲ Rates on hold, but inflation limits downside. Extend quality duration. Cash / Short Duration 5 — Maintain dry powder for dislocations. Alternatives (AI, Infra, Private Credit) 5 ▲ Focus on uncorrelated return streams. 2. Equity Sector Positioning Overweight: Defense & Aerospace: Geopolitical risk justifies premium. Lockheed Martin, Northrop, RTX. Energy/Oil: Strong cash flows, resilient dividends. Exxon, Chevron, APA, Devon. International Small Cap Value: Strong relative returns, less tariff exposure. Brandes, Avantis, Pzena. Neutral: Mega-Cap Tech: Maintain core exposure but rebalance to reduce momentum risk. Industrial Cyclicals: Mixed macro signals. Exposure through diversified ETFs preferred. Underweight: Consumer Discretionary: Inflation sticky, credit card delinquencies rising. Biotech/Vaccine: Regulatory overhang, sentiment risk from RFK Jr. policies. 3. Fixed Income Guidance Duration: Increase duration cautiously. Prefer U.S. Treasuries and munis with >7-year tenor. Credit: Focus on investment grade. Avoid HY unless oil stays >$90/bbl. Inflation Protection: Position in short/intermediate TIPS to hedge against tariff-related CPI pressure. 4. Tactical Thematic Plays Strait of Hormuz Shock Hedge: Buy USO ETF Aug $84–$94 call spread for high upside/defined loss. Overlay with short Aug $75 puts for those comfortable owning on a pullback. AI Lobbying Success: Long MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, especially if Senate passes regulatory moratorium. Mid-cap AI names (Palantir, Snowflake) as tactical trades. China De-Exposure: Rotate from ADRs to HKEX listings or U.S. multinationals with China-lite exposure. Consider India or Vietnam ETFs as structural beneficiaries of decoupling. Defense of Democracy Theme: Long nuclear, aerospace, cyberdefense (BWX Technologies, Cameco, Palantir). Cameco AP1000 export boost = significant EPS uplift in Q2. Credit-Card Squeeze: Avoid heavily consumer-exposed banks. Monitor delinquency rates; shift to non-bank lenders or fintechs with better risk models. 5. Policy Event Calendar (Key Risk Dates) Event Date Impact Iran Retaliation Window Next 5–10 days High – Oil spike, market risk-off FOMC Commentary & PCE Data June 28, 2025 Medium – Market path for Sept/Oct rate cuts Trump Tariff Signing Deadline July 9, 2025 High – CPI spike trigger, inflation repricing Senate Budget Finalization July 4, 2025 Medium – Tech regulatory outlook clarity Eurozone PMI & ECB Presser June 25–28, 2025 Medium – EUR/USD, global growth confidence
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
NAS100 - Will the stock market continue to rise?!The index is trading in its short-term descending channel on the four-hour timeframe between EMA200 and EMA50. If there is no re-up and the channel is broken, I expect a correction to form, the target of which can be the bottom of the descending channel. If the channel top is broken, we can expect a new ATH to be recorded in the Nasdaq index. It is better to wait for confirmation in case of a breakdown in order to control the risk further. Over the past week, the Nasdaq has managed to stay within a stable range, especially despite geopolitical pressures, mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, and some concerns in the semiconductor sector. This stability is largely due to the strong fundamentals of large technology companies, the reduction in distribution days (selling pressure) in the market, and renewed expectations of interest rate cuts later in the year. At a structural level, the number of distribution days, which indicate selling pressure from large institutions, has reached a relatively low number of 3 days in the Nasdaq over the past month. This is a sign of the weakness of heavy selling at price peaks and the market's willingness to maintain long positions. Unlike trends seen in previous years, this time the market has shown no signs of widespread divergence or fundamental weakness, even despite strong inflation data or concerns about new trade restrictions with China. This trend is largely supported by the stellar performance of companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple and other major players in the artificial intelligence and technology sectors. Revenue growth, increased investment in AI infrastructure, as well as the return of institutional investors’ confidence in technology stocks, have led the Nasdaq to record significant returns since the beginning of 2025. Analysts from major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, while warning of potential selling pressure on the index, remain positive about continued growth, of course, assuming that economic data does not deviate from the expected path. However, some risks are clearly visible in the trading week ahead. The most important of them is the possibility of geopolitical tensions again affecting the market. In recent days, oil prices have risen and financial markets have experienced moments of fear after tensions in the Middle East escalated and the US political response to Iran and Israel's moves. Although the Nasdaq was able to withstand these fluctuations, the market remains very sensitive to energy price spikes and their impact on inflation. Important data in the coming week could also determine the market's direction. The release of the Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, as well as data on unemployment insurance claims, both play a key role in the interest rate outlook. If inflation data is lower than expected, the likelihood that the Fed will start cutting rates in September or November increases, which would be a bullish stimulus for the stock market and especially the Nasdaq. On the other hand, potential pressure on the semiconductor group - especially if new restrictions on technology exports to China are imposed - could disrupt the market trend. Last Friday, just one news report on the possibility of restricting exports of advanced chipsets caused the Nasdaq to fall by more than 0.6%. If this trend becomes official US government policy, it could cause a correction in stocks of companies such as Nvidia, AMD and ASML, which are heavy weights in the Nasdaq index. In addition to these factors, next week will also see the release of quarterly reports from major companies such as Micron, FedEx and Nike. The results of these reports, especially in the area of ​​sales and cost forecasts, could affect economic growth expectations. If the figures are better than expected, the Nasdaq could move towards new highs. However, if the data is released, the market could enter a short-term correction phase. In terms of correlation with monetary policy, the Nasdaq index has become more sensitive than ever to interest rates and cash flows. The dollar price, real interest rates, and the direction of Treasury bonds all now have a direct impact on the valuation of technology companies. As a result, any change in the path of monetary tightening or easing is immediately reflected in the Nasdaq’s performance. However, analysts believe that the market will remain in a “wait and see” phase until the official data is released in July. In summary, the Nasdaq index is currently in a situation where its fundamentals are supported by the profitability of large technology companies, the easing of institutional selling pressure, and the possibility of a rate cut. At the same time, the market remains highly sensitive to major geopolitical news, trade policy, and economic data. As a result, the week ahead can be considered a “two-sided” period, where opportunities and threats are in a delicate balance, and only economic data and quarterly results can tip the balance in the direction of an increase or a correction.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
SOL Long Term Long PositionJSE:SOL credit rating has been stamped with a Ba1 by Moody's which is very unfavourable to the company, wholistically. This is as a result of its weakening operating performance mainly attributed to low demand in the chemicals market and weak oil prices. With expectations of higher FX:USOIL prices and JSE:SOL being pretty much undervalued, trading near its supporting level of 8600 ZAC, a positive outlook is still evident. Long positions have been executed at 9574 ZAC with a possibility to further capitalize when necessary. Cite: Sasol outlook downgraded to negative by Moody's Ratings, Ba1 rating affirmed - Luke Juricic
JSE:SOLLong
by Dlamini_SS
US–Iran Conflict Triggers a Potential Nasdaq Bearish Setup🟣 Geopolitical Flashpoint Meets Technical Confluence The U.S. weekend airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities has reignited geopolitical instability across the Middle East. While broader markets often absorb news cycles quickly, high-beta assets like Nasdaq futures (NQ) tend to react more dramatically—especially when uncertainty meets existing technical vulnerability. Monday’s session opened with a notable gap to the downside, reflecting immediate risk-off sentiment among futures traders. While the initial drop is being retraced intraday, historical patterns suggest that such gap-fills can often serve as ideal shorting zones—particularly when other bearish signals confirm the narrative. The backdrop is clear: this is no ordinary Monday open. 🟣 Bearish Divergence on CCI Builds the Case From a technical standpoint, the setup gains weight through a clear bearish divergence on the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) using a 20-period setting. While prices recently pushed higher, momentum failed to follow—an early indication that buyers may be running out of steam. This divergence appears just as price approaches the origin of Friday’s gap, a level that frequently acts as a resistance magnet in such contexts. This confluence of weakening momentum and overhead supply aligns perfectly with the geopolitical catalyst, offering traders a compelling argument for a potential reversal in the short term. 🟣 Gap Origin: The Line in the Sand The origin of the gap sits at 21844.75, a price level now acting as potential resistance. As the market attempts to climb back toward this zone, the likelihood of encountering institutional selling pressure increases. Gap origins often represent unfinished business—zones where prior bullish control was suddenly interrupted. In this case, the added layer of global tension only strengthens the conviction that sellers may look to reassert dominance here. If price action stalls or rejects at this zone, it could become the pivot point for a swift move lower, especially with bearish momentum already flashing caution signals. 🟣 Trade Plan and Reward-to-Risk Breakdown A potential short trade could be structured using 21844.75 as the entry point—precisely at the gap origin. A conservative stop placement would rest just above the most recent swing high at 22222.00, offering protection against a temporary squeeze. The downside target aligns with a prior UFO support area near 20288.75, where demand previously showed presence. This sets up a risk of 377.25 points versus a potential reward of 1556.00 points, resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 4.12:1. For traders seeking asymmetrical opportunity, this ratio stands out as a strong incentive to engage with discipline. 🟣 Futures Specs: Know What You’re Trading Traders should be aware of contract specifics before engaging. The E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ) represent $20 per point, with a minimum tick of 0.25 worth $5.00. Typical margin requirements hover around $31,000, depending on the broker. For smaller accounts, the Micro Nasdaq-100 Futures (MNQ) offer 1/10th the exposure. Each point is worth $2, with a $0.50 tick value and much lower margins near $3,100. 🟣 Discipline First: Why Risk Management Matters Volatility driven by geopolitical events can deliver fast gains—but just as easily, fast losses. That’s why stop-loss orders are non-negotiable. Without one, traders expose themselves to unlimited downside, especially in leveraged instruments like futures. Equally critical is the precision of entry and exit levels. Acting too early or too late—even by a few points—can compromise an otherwise solid trade. Always size positions according to your account, and never let emotion override logic. Risk management isn’t a side-note—it’s the foundation that separates professionals from those who simply speculate. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold price 15 days, will the gold price rise or fall? 📣 Macroeconomic data and central bank policies 1. Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel: This morning, Iran launched about 27 to 30 ballistic missiles at Israel, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa and Ben-Gurion International Airport. Israel's "Hammer" air defense system intercepted multiple incoming missiles, but still caused about 20 to 86 injuries, and some residential houses and infrastructure were damaged. Subsequently, the Israeli Air Force launched a retaliatory strike on military targets in western Iran, destroying two Iranian F-5 fighters and multiple missile launchers and military bases. The large-scale military conflict between the two sides further exacerbated tensions in the Middle East. 2. Iran plans to block the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil route in the Middle East: After the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, the Iranian parliament immediately approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and is currently awaiting approval from the highest authority. The Strait of Hormuz is known as the mouthpiece of oil. About a quarter of the world's seaborne crude oil trade passes through this place, and the oil exported by the Gulf countries through the strait accounts for 20%-25% of the world's total oil output. Once the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the global oil supply will be severely impacted, triggering violent fluctuations in the energy market. This will not only exacerbate inflation expectations, but also make the economic outlook more uncertain. In this case, gold, as an important tool to combat inflation and economic uncertainty, will significantly increase its attractiveness, which may trigger a large number of investors to buy, thereby driving up gold prices. 3. The Fed maintains interest rates unchanged, and internal differences increase: In the early morning of June 19, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, which is the fourth consecutive month that it has maintained this interest rate level. In this statement, the unemployment rate was slightly adjusted. Although the uncertainty of the economic outlook has been reduced, it is still at a high level. The dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve maintains its forecast of two interest rate cuts this year, but has raised the median forecast for the interest rate in 2026. Judging from the attitude of officials, the number of people who support two rate cuts this year is basically the same as those who support maintaining the current interest rate, which indicates that the differences within the Fed on the direction of monetary policy are increasing. ​ 🎈Technical factors Support and resistance From the technical chart, gold currently forms a double bottom support at 3340 in the hourly cycle, showing that this position has a certain support strength. If the gold price can hold the 3340-3350 first-line support in the next 15 days, it is expected to rebound on this basis. The short-term resistance above is 3385-3390, which is the previous trading concentration area. If gold can break through this resistance level, the long volume will really start to exert force and look further to a higher position. If the gold price falls below 3340, the key support level, it may trigger further selling, and the bottom may test $2941. Gold price trend forecast and operation suggestions for the next 15 days: Based on the above factors, there are several possibilities for the gold price trend in the next 15 days: Optimistic outlook (probability 40%) If geopolitical conflicts further escalate or US economic data, such as consumer confidence, are not as expected, leading to further strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, gold prices are expected to stabilize and rebound around $3340-3350, and retest the previous high of $3450-3470. In terms of operation, investors can buy on dips when the gold price falls back to the support level, set a reasonable stop loss, and look at the resistance level. Neutral scenario (probability 50%) The price remains in the range of $3350-3385, waiting for the Fed's policy signals and macroeconomic data to guide the direction. In this case, investors can adopt a high-sell-low-buy operation strategy, buy at the bottom of the range, and short at the top of the range, strictly control positions and stop losses, and avoid large losses due to emotional fluctuations. Pessimistic scenario (10% probability) If the US economic data is strong, indicating stable economic growth, or the geopolitical risks suddenly ease, and the market risk aversion sentiment cools down significantly, the gold price may fall below the key support level of $3,340 and seek support at $2,941. At this time, investors should stop losses in their long orders in time, and even consider shorting at highs, but pay attention to market changes and control risks. Overall, the gold market is full of uncertainty in the next 15 years. When investing in gold, investors must pay close attention to changes in macroeconomic data, central bank policies and geopolitical situations, combine technical analysis, reasonably control positions, set stop losses, and make investment decisions with a profit-taking spirit.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
USD/CAD Tests Key Resistance Amid Mixed Global Economic SignalsTechnical Analysis On the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD has broken above the 1.3746 resistance level, which corresponds to the top swing of the recent rally from 1.3687. The breakout above this level is a bullish signal, reinforced by a positive RSI reading above 70, indicating strong buying momentum. The MACD histogram is in positive territory, and the stochastic oscillator remains near overbought levels, showing sustained bullish energy. Price action seems to retest the broken upper boundary of a descending channel drawn from the last high near 1.3723-1.3747. This resistance zone near 1.3770-1.3783 also coincides with the 141.4% and 161.8% Fibonacci extensions, marking key targets for continuation should bulls maintain control. Alternative Scenario If the price fails to hold above the 1.3746 breakout level and retreats back below 1.3723 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), we could see a pullback towards the lower support zone near 1.3687. A breakdown below this support may extend the correction into the mid-1.3600s, retesting the lower channel boundary.
Long
by Errante
Geopolitics Shake Markets: DXY, XAUUSD, BTCUSD in FocusThis week’s market prep session comes at a critical moment. With the U.S. launching airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, geopolitical tensions are shaking global markets. In this in-depth session, we break down how these developments are impacting: 💵 DXY (US Dollar) – Safe-haven flows and what to expect from Powell’s upcoming testimony 🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) – Why analysts are calling for $3,900/oz amid global uncertainty ₿ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Volatile moves and whether BTC is holding up as a modern-day safe haven We’ll also preview key events like U.S. PCE inflation data and global central bank meetings that could drive major moves. Whether you’re trading FX, commodities, or crypto—this is the market insight you don’t want to miss. 📅 Watch now to position yourself ahead of the curve this week.
FX:XAUUSD
by DeanMuller
AAPL Daily – Key Breakout Zone AheadWe're currently sitting at the lower boundary of a large descending channel on AAPL in the daily timeframe. After completing what appears to be a 5-wave Elliott bearish structure, the price made a strong bullish rebound. Since then, it has been consolidating in a mid-range zone, forming an ascending triangle, which could signal a continuation of the recent bullish move. At the current price level, we can identify two key bullish patterns: An ascending wedge (or "púa") An ascending triangle Both patterns are developing around the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level of the last major bearish impulse — a critical zone. A breakout above this level could imply structural damage to the previous downtrend and open the door to a potential long setup. 🎯 Target zone: 232.00 – 235.00 Keep an eye on volume and breakout confirmation.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by didacbague46
2
Ye Chart Kuch Kehta Hai : Trent LtdTrent India Limited is attractive for mid to long-term investment because it combines strong financial performance, aggressive growth plans (especially through Zudio), a diversified retail portfolio, and solid backing from the Tata Group. The company is positioned well to capitalize on the growing Indian retail market, with positive analyst outlooks and significant upside potential in share price. Risks include competition in grocery formats and valuation sensitivity, but overall, Trent offers a compelling growth story with robust fundamentals for investors looking at a 3-5 year horizon or longer Trent India Limited is considered a lucrative stock for mid-term to long-term investment due to several strong fundamentals and growth prospects: 1. Robust Revenue and Profit Growth Trent has demonstrated impressive financial performance with annual revenue surging by about 82% in the last year and quarterly revenue growing 50% year-over-year, significantly outperforming sector averages. Quarterly net profit rose by over 124% year-over-year, indicating strong profitability and operational efficiency. The company maintains a healthy Return on Equity (ROE) of around 29-31% and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of about 21-42%, reflecting effective capital utilization. 2. Strong Growth Prospects and Expansion Plans Trent aims for a 25%+ annual growth rate over the long term, supported by aggressive store expansion, especially through its fast-fashion brand Zudio, which is rapidly increasing its footprint with over 750 stores and plans to add more. The fashion and lifestyle segment in India is expected to grow at 10-12% CAGR to ₹18 trillion by 2028, providing a large market opportunity for Trent. Trent’s diversified retail portfolio, including Westside (semi-premium fashion), Zudio (value fast fashion), and Star Bazaar (grocery), reduces dependence on any single segment and broadens consumer reach. 3. Strong Backing and Brand Value from Tata Group Being part of the Tata Group, Trent benefits from strong corporate governance, brand reputation, and strategic retail synergies, which enhance investor confidence and operational strength. 4. Positive Analyst Ratings and Target Price Upside Leading brokerages like Motilal Oswal, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Macquarie have given buy or outperform ratings on Trent, with target prices suggesting 16-45% upside from current levels, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth trajectory. HSBC values Trent’s standalone business at a premium P/E multiple, justified by its higher growth, profitability, and return profile compared to peers. 5. Financial Strength and Low Debt Trent is virtually debt-free, which lowers financial risk and provides flexibility for expansion and investment. The company has shown consistent margin improvements and strong EBITDA growth, with a 37% year-on-year jump in EBITDA recently, indicating operational efficiency.
NSE:TRENT
by prashant_1209
XAUUSD – Are the Bulls Back? Key Reversal Zone in PlayXAUUSD – Are the Bulls Back? Key Reversal Zone in Play Gold has been consolidating in a tight range for several sessions, but both macro and technical indicators are pointing to a potential breakout. With volatility expected to rise, traders should keep a close eye on these high-probability zones. 🌍 Macro Overview – Is the Tide Turning for Gold? 📉 The Fed remains hawkish, but market sentiment has shifted, with over 65% probability priced in for a rate cut in September. This adds pressure on the dollar and offers upside potential for gold. 💸 10-year US Treasury yields are stabilizing, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and reigniting interest from risk-averse investors. ⚠️ Ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. 🏦 Central banks, especially in China and India, are steadily increasing their gold reserves — a bullish long-term signal for the market. 📊 Technical Outlook – Watch the Fair Value Gap (FVG) The 3325–3327 support zone aligns with an unfilled FVG on H1-H4 charts, providing a key area for bullish momentum to resume. Sustained price action above this level may open a path toward 3360 and beyond. Conversely, if price reaches the 3398–3400 resistance area and shows signs of exhaustion, it could trigger a short-term pullback. ✅ Trade Setup 🟢 BUY ZONE: 3327 – 3325 SL: 3320 TP Targets: 3330 → 3335 → 3340 → 3345 → 3350 → 3355 → 3360 → 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3398 – 3400 SL: 3405 TP Targets: 3395 → 3390 → 3386 → 3380 → 3375 → 3370 → 3360 ⚠️ Final Thoughts The gold market is approaching a decision point... With the PCE and US GDP data due this week, traders should expect a potential volatility spike. Risk management remains key — wait for confirmation at key levels, stick to your plan, and don’t let emotions override discipline. This week could offer strong directional moves for gold, but only for those prepared.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 23, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD exchange rate fell to around 1.14900 at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The US dollar is strengthening against the euro (EUR) amid US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's war against Iran, which has sharply escalated the conflict. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the US entered the conflict between Israel and Iran when American military aircraft and submarines struck three Iranian targets in Iran, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump said Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities had been “totally destroyed” and warned of “much more severe” strikes if Iran did not agree to peace. The rise in tensions following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is contributing to the rise in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and is having a negative impact on the major currency pair. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year to support the eurozone's sluggish recovery, but made it clear that there would be a pause in July. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end, as the central bank is now “well positioned” to deal with the current uncertainty. The ECB's hawkish tone may help limit the euro's losses in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.15000, SL 1.14600, TP 1.15800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004