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Fundamental Analysis

GBP/USD: Bearish Momentum Holds Below 1.2500GBP/USD trades around 1.2490, showing weakness for the third consecutive day, with the daily chart indicating a bearish bias within a descending channel. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, projecting a 2025 rate of 3.9% (up from 3.4% in September). Powell emphasized caution and a slower path for future rate cuts, while the BoE kept rates steady at 4.75%. The strengthening of the US Dollar has been supported by rising Treasury yields, although improving global risk sentiment might limit further gains. A break below the 1.2450 support could push the price towards 1.2400, while a move above 1.2530 might open the door to a potential test of 1.2600, though this remains unlikely without favorable catalysts.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/CAD - H4 - Strong BreakoutThe GBP/CAD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.7761 2nd Support – 1.7570 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
Is MNTUSDT Gearing Up for a Rally or a Major Breakdown?Yello, Paradisers! Is MNTUSDT preparing for an explosive breakout, or are we staring at the possibility of a deep pullback? The chart is at a critical decision point, and what happens next could define the trend for the coming weeks. Let’s break it down. 💎#MNTUSDT recently tested a significant resistance zone around $1.2651, marked by heavy seller activity in the past. The rejection from this level suggests that buyers need more momentum to push through and sustain higher levels. 💎The price is now raising the probability of a bullish continuation from a demand zone near $1.00, which previously acted as a springboard for the last rally. This zone aligns with the 100 EMA, providing additional technical confluence for potential support. 💎Below the demand zone lies a crucial support level at $0.8775–$0.9227. If the price loses this level, it could open the floodgates for a significant decline. 💎If #MNTUSDT holds above $1.00 and buyers regain control, we could see a rebound toward the resistance zone at $1.2651. A breakout above $1.2651 could trigger a strong rally, with upside targets at $1.50 and potentially as high as $1.80 in the coming weeks. 💎A breakdown below $0.8775 would signal weakness, invalidating the current demand zone. This could result in a sharp drop, with potential downside targets at $0.70 and even $0.60, suggesting a bearish reversal in market structure. 💎The MACD is showing signs of slowing momentum, hinting at the possibility of consolidation or further downside unless buyers step in strongly. The 100 EMA remains a key dynamic support level that bulls must defend to maintain the bullish bias. Stay disciplined, Paradisers. Let the market confirm its direction before making any commitments. Whether it’s a rally or a correction, being prepared and patient will always set you apart from the majority. Play it smart, stay focused, and always prioritize capital preservation. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade Idea over the breakout of 2604.02 leXAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade idea over the breakout of 2604.02 level. Gold fell on the recent 18 Dec 2024 FOMC, and on 19 Dec 2024 the unemployment data was strong for the US dollar, so now I am watching the buy-side trade idea over the breakout of the 2604.02 level with strong confirmations of price at this level. The setup must meet the required momentum in the price. The sentiments also show the price will move as per the data revelled from various sites. Setup; Gold Buy at level: 2604.2-2605.2 Stop Loss: 2599.2 (50 pips) or the low of previous candle Take Profit; 2623 *Note; If the valid breakout will be found then the setup also valid otherwised find more oppercunity.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Bloom_Forex_Official
WHAT NEXT FOR BITCOIN?Will December Be Good for Bitcoin? A Look at Past Trends As December approaches, Bitcoin traders often wonder if this month will be positive for crypto or if it will end in losses. Let's look at how Bitcoin has performed each December for the past 10 years: Bitcoin's December Trends (2013–2023) 2013: Started at ~$1,000 and ended at ~$750 (-25%). Early excitement faded due to profit-taking and worries about Mt. Gox. 2014: Started at ~$375 and ended at ~$320 (-15%). The Mt. Gox hack earlier in the year hurt confidence. 2015: Started at ~$360 and ended at ~$430 (+19%). Renewed optimism brought a small rally. 2016: Started at ~$740 and ended at ~$960 (+30%). This steady increase hinted at the big run in 2017. 2017: Started at ~$10,800 and ended at ~$14,000 (+30%). Bitcoin reached a peak mid-month but started a bear market by year-end. 2018: Started at ~$4,000 and ended at ~$3,800 (-5%). The market was down 80% from its peak. 2019: Started at ~$7,500 and ended at ~$7,200 (-4%). Modest losses as the market was stable. 2020: Started at ~$19,500 and ended at ~$29,000 (+48%). COVID-19 increased Bitcoin’s popularity, leading to big gains. 2021: Started at ~$57,000 and ended at ~$46,000 (-19%). Concerns about inflation led to a drop. 2022: Started at ~$17,000 and ended at ~$16,500 (-3%). The FTX collapse kept the market weak. 2023: Started at ~$40,000 and ended at ~$42,500 (+6%). A recovery year with modest gains. What to Watch for in December 2024 1. Federal Reserve Policy: An expected rate cut on December 18 has supported market optimism. A change in this plan could affect prices. 2. Institutional Investment: Bitcoin ETFs have gained popularity, attracting over $100 billion in 2024. 3. Market Sentiment: With Bitcoin above $100,000, the target is now $125,000, but volatility is possible. 4. Political Factors: President-elect Trump’s pro-crypto stance, with promises of favorable policies, adds to the market’s positive outlook. Looking to 2025 Bitcoin’s future looks promising with growing institutional and consumer interest, friendly regulations, and a supportive economic environment. While $108,000 is a milestone, many expect even higher prices as Bitcoin continues to evolve. As 2024 ends, traders can expect more action. Stay ready, watch the market, and best of luck in the new year.
by SherrySOC
1
GBPAUD Bullish Trade Idea from 2.00381-2.0082GBPAUD Bullish Trade Idea The price fell from the 2.02834 zone and hit back the 2.00381 zone, just respecting the recent support level. Now the important question is: does the price just test back and wait for the confirmation candle over this zone to reach the next level? In H4, the bear pressure will increase over time, and the volume increased with sentiments also showing that more volume on the buy side. and the major zone will be tested. Key level: if the market breaks the support, then we must see at the 1.99567 zone, but on the other side, the Pound index is strong enough. When the market breaks the 2.00820 level, put buy trade. Buying zone: 2.00381 - 2.0082 Stop loss: 1.99778 Take Profit Level: 2.0158-2.02763
Long
by Bloom_Forex_Official
Gold will fall excessively.Scenario takes stage and now it's time.From early Jan to dec,gold almost hits half of its price when hits $2790, Now before 2025,market buyers will taking profit from what thay have made this year. $1980 to 2790. That's huge from all over the period of trade in gold. Fundamentals will support this idea and technical will favour it. As fed signals fewer rate cuts next year n market falls in technical correction cycle. So now sold n hold untill another shift in *geopolitics*. Expected tgt $2560-2540-2400.
TVC:GOLDShort
by ktra_commodities
Ruh Roh, looks like SPY's in trouble..Hey guys, Thought I would do a written post this time because there is a lot of information to share! So, if you follow me, you know I am mostly about math, but I also like to include the chart, some technicals and some fundamentals. And I think at this point in time its very critical to consider all these factors when analyze the price action we see. So SPY is selling. To be honest, I am not surprised of the selling, but I am surprised of the timing. I thought it would wait till January, just chopping around and topping before doing the whole waterfall thing. But it decided to jump on the opportunity with FOMC's news release. We will get into that in one second. So with that catalyst, SPY began its decline, over 2% in one day, closing below a loss of 2% on the day. We then opened slightly gapped up but failed to start, where we continued to tank. So what is going on? Fundamentals The market got what it wanted, a 25 basis point cut. However, the guidance offered by the feds was a bit more realistic and sobering. The guidance essentially indicated that rate cuts would not continue for long and they don't anticipate anymore than 2 rate cuts into next year, leading to a period of rate purgatory so to speak. This is generally not great because it destroys the premise of "easy money". Easy money is money that people can get due to low interest rates and a surplus of fund availability. However, with the lack of rate cuts, we will hover at a stable albeit elevated interest rate with no outlook of when rates will be lowered and when interest rates will be cheaper. This is bad, because in order for people to feel wealthier, they need to feel like things are cheaper or that they have more money, which isn't a direct consequence of prolonged rate hiking. This means that people will be less inclined to invest into unnecessary things (stock market perhaps) and keep funds safe for whatever the future may hold. The reason the feds can take this stance is because the labour market is rebounding. This means that people are generally gainfully employed and can withstand the rate hikes / rate stagnation. Not necessarily detrimental for the market, but in general, higher unemployment is good for the big picture of markets because it means rates will need to be lower. This leads to the next fundamental topic, Money! 2024 marked historic deficit highs for the US, with 1.8 trillion deficit in 2024. And if you watched my video about SPX and the money supply, having a US index valued well over all the monetary supply in circulation within the US, its not a normal or healthy or sustainable thing, especially when the US is already experiencing grave deficits. PE ratios I won't get into this too much, but take a look at some companies PE ratios in relation to their fundamentals, things were getting a little off kilter here... Now for the Math If you followed me through the last little crash SPY / SPX did in the end of July, you would have remembered this video: In this video, I explain my own theory of "corrections". From my own research looking at DJI and SPX (since both have histories since the 1800s), one thing I have noted is there are generally 3 stages of correction, from a math perspective. Stage 1: Cubic Correation This is a shallow correction and involves a correction to the 'cubic' mean of a ticker or index. It generally results when the ticker, specifically spy, exceeds the cubic mean by up to 5%. Currently, SPY's cubic mean is 557, with the actual range being 555 - 559. Remember, this moves with each passing day. That is just as of right now, today's close. In 20 days the range will be up to 563. These corrections are shallow and usually involve about a 5% to 10% pullback. As of right now, the cubic mean is approximately 8% away from the recent highs. Stage 2: Quartic Correction If the market isn't satisfied with a cubic correction (for general interest, in July we simply did a cubic correction back to 510 and then resumed the uptrend), we will see next a quartic correction. This is a reversion to the quartic mean, which generally is an addition 10 to 15% away. In SPY's case currently, the quartic mean is 544, with a range of 542 - 546/ This is a deeper correction but not necessarily a bear market. Quartic corrections usually are the halmark of "flash crashes". Stage 3: Quadratic Correction, AKA Bear Market Cycle In 2022 we had a quadratic correction, that was a regression to the quadratic mean. If you have been around for a long time and followed me through 2022, you will remember I called a move to 350s. Most thought I was nuts, but it was because SPY had already fallen through the cubic mean and that signaled that it was intent on following through to a quartic and possibly quadratic. It was confirmed relatively quickly in 2022, at least for me, that it was looking for a quadratic correction (i.e. bear market cycle) as it quickly fell through both cubic and quartic means. Currently, SPY's quadratic mean is 475, with a range of 472 to 477. Quadratic corrections take, on average, 6 months to a year, which is the normal bear market cycle. Only once have I observed a fall below the quadratic range and that was in 2008 (obviously I wasn't trading at this time, but when I was testing these theories this was the only year where the market didn't get stopped by the bottom of the quadratic range, every other bear market/correction got halted at the bottom of the quadratic range or at the quadratic mean itself). So what does this mean for you the trader? It means relax. We haven't even seen a cubic correction as of yet. For SPY to assert a bear market cycle thesis, we will need to see SPY shoot through the cubic mean. However, obviously vigilance needs to be maintained. This isn't the time to mindlessly buy dips until we see it finding support on one of the critical means. Will it correct to the means? Yes, mostly likely we will see at minimum, a cubic correction. The reason I think this is just the fundamentals currently support it. Will we go lower than the cubic mean? Hard to say. No one can be sure, obviously. The economic situation isn't super precarious, so I am skeptical of seeing an overly profound dip or the commencement of a bear market, but I will be diligently watching where support is found. How do we know if it doesn't want to correct to one of the means? This is a good question! Most pullbacks involve at least a correction to one of the means, but there have been times where it bypassed, only to circle back in about a 6-month period. We will only be sure that SPY does not intend to mean revert if we break a new high from the current high (aka a new ATH) prior to correcting to the mean. I know this doesn't seem super helpful, but its the only way that is a telltale sign that it doesn't intend on correcting. However, many of these cases where it went back to make a new high, it ended up crashing to the cubic and quartic mean some 1 to 2 months later :-/. So where should we be looking to buy? If you want to buy as a swing trade, I would wait to see if this is going to find support at one of the means. If I wanted to buy as an investor with the long term vision in sight, then you can buy anywhere really. Stocks will only ever permanently go up and bear market cycles and mean corrections are just fleeting passings that are quickly absorbed into obscurity. I bet many of you forgot that we crashed in July ;). Will it happen quicky? The average Cubic correction takes about 1 week. In July I think it lasted about 2 weeks because those relentless dip buyers. Hard to say but the historic average is 1 week. How do we know if it will go lower? In July, SPY went 1 point lower than the cubic mean and it was enough to make me, erroneously of course, call the end is nye. I was wrong obviously, because SPY quickly recovered. So I would say, hitting the general cubic range, even if it is below by 1 or 2 points, if it recovers there, that would be a good sign for a continuation up. Summary So kudos to you if you read this long! Moral of this story is we should see a correction, likely greater than 5%, to the cubic mean. Remember the cubic mean is constantly increasing with each passing day, so we will need to be mindful of where it is and when contact is made. For convenience, I will update with that information as we either completely reverse away from it or approach it. Don't get too bearish, Cubic corrections are not usually a very bearish thing. Instead, they serve the purpose of providing buying opportunities for late entrants. The economic situation of the US is right now uncertain until Trump takes presidency. Not sure of his economic plans, but in general he has stimulated economic growth. This would of course be good for markets. Hopefully you found this informative. There were other things I wanted to discuss but I think this is enough for now. Leave your questions below and safe trades everyone!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
34
Dogecoin at its crossroads: Moment of truthHello, fellow traders! This is my analysis on Dogecoin as well as the market sentiment overall. 1️⃣ Technical Analysis on Dogecoin There are four major analyses for Dogecoin. 1. Dogecoin broke below the uptrend channel on December 12th. We see Dogecoin breaking below the daily uptrend channel after touching the channel’s resistance line. The price attempted a bullish rebound on December 11th but failed, resulting in the break below and raising concerns about the future of the rally. 2. Dogecoin broke below the Price Action Zone yesterday. Even after breaking below the channel, there was still a chance for Dogecoin to reenter the channel. If the price was within the Price Action Zone (PAZ), the rally could still have continued. However, exiting the PAZ greatly discourages this. 3. Dogecoin formed a ‘Double Top’ pattern. Dogecoin, having formed two tops on November 23rd and December 8th, has broken below the neckline of 0.36482, which is a valid sign for a possible downtrend. 4. Dogecoin broke below the rectangular box. Another bearish sign, similar to the PAZ breakthrough and the Double Top pattern, as the price of Dogecoin breaks below the rectangular box. All of these are strong signs that are foreshadowing the bearish momentum. However, the price of Dogecoin has currently rebounded after touching the major level of 0.34010, forming a bullish hammer candle. So, does this signal a good entry for long? What are we to expect from Dogecoin – and the market itself, for that matter? 2️⃣ Understanding the market It's essential to understand the overall market movements first and also the reason behind them. The crypto market has left investors with confusion over the past few days, but Bitcoin is continuing its bullish rally for now. Let’s have a look at the Bitcoin chart. With Bitcoin falling over 5% yesterday, it is currently climbing back up with a green hammer candle. Today’s candle is particularly important as the price has touched both the support line of the current uptrend channel and the upper side of the major demand zone. Showing the rebound at this AoC (Area of Confluence – where more than two lines, zones or levels intersect) could indicate an additional climb especially with Bitcoin’s price remaining within the channel. However, if the candle closes red, ignoring the AoC, this could heavily discourage the market’s bullish momentum. BTC Dominance also continues to rise yet is forming a ‘shooting star’ candle today (for now) as altcoins including Dogecoin faces rebound. Ethereum presents a particularly intriguing chart as it attempts to reenter the uptrend channel after breaking below yesterday. If the bullish momentum is strong enough, it could reenter the channel before today’s candle closes. Today’s candles for these cryptos are important because they could shape the future direction of the market. Bitcoin closing below the channel could spark fear throughout the entire market and question many of the rally’s continuation. Same goes for Dogecoin: the candle is currently green, but with considerable time remaining until the candle closes, Dogecoin could face downtrend – possibly toward 0.22930. Dogecoin exiting the uptrend channel & PAZ already shows that it has lost much of the bullish momentum it showed last month. It is important to understand the context of the sharp decline yesterday – many of you may already be aware but for those who are not – the US Fed interest rate has been cut to 4.50% (from 4.75%). While this is typically a good sign for the market, the Fed also hinted that there will be fewer cuts in 2025 – triggering sharp declines across the major markets including stock and crypto. Another (and more significant) thing worth noting as a crypto trader is that Fed Chair Powell has commented, “That’s the kind of thing that Congress to consider, but we are not looking for a law change,” when asked about the possibility of digital assets being held by the central bank. His answer, implying that the central bank currently has neither the legal right nor the intention of owning the digital currency, impacted the crypto market furthermore – because the current rally has mostly been driven by the hype of ‘digital currencies being adopted by the governments & banks as tools to cover their financial challenges such as paying national debt.’ But with Fed Chair dropping the axe that this is not going to happen (at least for a while), the rally loses its purpose – which could heavily damage its momentum. And the fear has already been reflected by the market as we see the sharp decline. 3️⃣ What to expect? Before sharing my insights, I want to emphasize the following first: The Crypto market, notorious for its high volatility, maintained its reputation today as Dogecoin’s price fluctuated wildly. (Being a full-time trader,) I’ve watched price moving up and down multiple times – at one point, it almost seemed like the price would drop straight down to 0.22930, only to reverse direction minutes later. Be very, extremely cautious – it is always wise to stay passive and observant before diving in instead of trading instantly upon price touching or breaking the major levels or zones - even if they look promising. Market is often very unpredictable. Bitcoin seems to be performing well as the price remains within its uptrend channel. However, the same cannot be said for Dogecoin or Ethereum. (Some altcoins like Uxlink are showing unusual movements despite the market sentiment, but these are most likely cases of manipulation and should be considered exceptions.) Dogecoin has already lost a big part of its bullish momentum and Ethereum is also stumbling with its price breaking below the channel. Of course, this is not to say or assume that the rally is over – no one knows the future. Consolidation often means building momentum for a bigger leap. Nothing is to be assumed. For example, in my recent post on Ark CRYPTO:ARKUSD , I’ve mentioned that it is very unlikely that we would see a rebound at the AoC (red box in the chart below) due to the market sentiment then, but here we are with the possibility. But it is true that the current chart of Dogecoin is currently leaning more towards the bearish side. If the price breaks below the red dotted line (0.34010) or even shows the bearish reversal upon touching (or nearing) the major zones or levels, there’s a chance the bearish movement would continue, granting us the short opportunities. (Also, it’s not hard to imagine that some form of resistance may occur before any continued decline, so be mindful of a possible last squeeze – if the downtrend does materialize.) React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful. God bless :) Romans 5:8
by QJEEE
DXY vs BTC - Don't Fade the FedVery simple concept that people should be aware of. When DXY runs it is because investors are risking off from the market into USD for some reason. Usually DXY will run in opposition to the majority of Stocks, Crypto and other risk on markets. The Fed has announced yesterday that there will be less rate cuts than expected in 2025 and are hawkish causing a market wide selloff into USD and other safe haven assets. This risking off may be done and we could see a reversal on the DXY, a failed breakout: or we could be in for more pain. It's a big warning sign.
by Mrgalaxy
BTC will Fly SoonBTC is currently exhibiting an upward trend, trading within a parallel channel characterized by inclined support and resistance levels. Notably, BTC has experienced three instances of reversal from support and three from Resistance levels. Presently, BTC is positioned at the support level and has initiated a reversal, indicating a directional bias towards the upside. Our recommended buy zone for BTC is between 96500_97500 With potential take Profit level at T.P1= 100000 T.P2= 103000 T.P3= 105000 T.P4= 108000 Having stop loss= 94500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LeonardoTrader9t9
ADAUSDT Technical Analysis What is happening with ADAUSDT? A notable decrease in user participation on the Cardano network has been observed since the end of November. This is reflected in the drop in the number of active addresses and new addresses on the Cardano blockchain. Lower network activity can be interpreted as a lack of interest or use of the platform, which is a negative sign. Decrease in Total Value Locked (TVL) The TVL in Cardano has also shown a downward trend in recent weeks. TVL is the total value of assets locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols on a blockchain. A decrease in TVL may indicate a loss of confidence in DeFi projects built on Cardano or a migration of capital to other platforms. Investor Concerns Some investors have expressed frustration and concern about ADA's performance, especially compared to other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Some have even stated that they have achieved better results with other lower market capitalization cryptocurrencies. This dissatisfaction can generate selling pressure on ADA. Unfavorable Comparisons Some users have commented that ADA is underperforming compared to Bitcoin, raising doubts about its growth potential. Analyzing, we can observe that the price is experiencing strong rejection at its current price, which will lead us to a price correction/decline. The asset had almost no upward volatility in this bullish market moment; therefore, any position that is sought should be short (or bearish).
Short
by MysticWhiteU
$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx