NH SWING TRADE IDEA (2025-07-29)
### 🩻 UNH SWING TRADE IDEA (2025-07-29)
**UnitedHealth Group – Bearish Setup**
📉 **Sentiment:** Moderately Bearish
📊 **Daily RSI:** 28.9 (Oversold!)
📉 **Momentum:** 5D/10D bearish
🔇 **Volume:** Weak (1.0x avg = low conviction)
💬 **Options Flow:** Neutral (C/P = 1.00)
🌬️ **VIX:** 15.71 — calm, tradable
---
### 🔻 Trade Setup
* **Play Type:** Naked PUT
* **Strike:** \$240.00
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-15
* **Entry:** \$0.85
* **Target:** \$1.35
* **Stop:** \$0.60
* **Risk Size:** 1 contract
* **Entry Timing:** Market Open
* **Confidence:** 75% 📉
---
### 🤖 Model Consensus (5 Models)
✅ All agree: **Bearish RSI + Downward Momentum**
⚠️ Disagree on *strength* of the trend: moderate vs strong
💡 Models: Claude, Grok, Gemini, LLaMA, DeepSeek
---
### ⚠️ Key Risks
* Neutral options flow = no crowd confirmation
* Weak volume = price may stall or fake out
* Watch for VIX spikes — could flip sentiment fast
---
### 🔎 Summary for Swing Traders
**UNH \$240P → \$0.85 → \$1.35**
🧠 RSI confirms downside
⛔ Low volume = trade light, manage risk
📅 Target expiry: Aug 15
🧲 Key level: \$247.13 — if broken, ride lower
Fundamental Analysis
MU WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (2025-07-29)
### 🚀 MU WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (2025-07-29)
**Micron Technology (MU) – Bullish Call Play**
🔹 **Sentiment:** Moderate Bullish
🔹 **C/P Ratio:** 2.91 (Bullish Flow)
🔹 **RSI (Weekly):** 53.6 📈
🔹 **Volume:** Weak (⚠️ caution — low conviction)
---
### 🎯 Trade Setup
* **Strike:** \$116.00
* **Type:** CALL (LONG)
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-01
* **Entry:** \$0.62
* **Target:** \$0.89
* **Stop:** \$0.31
* **Risk:** 2–4% of account
* **Confidence:** 65% 🧠
* **Entry Timing:** Market Open
---
### 🤖 Multi-Model Consensus
5 AI Engines Agree:
✅ Buy \$114–\$116 Calls
🧠 Models: Grok, Gemini, Claude, Llama, DeepSeek
📉 Main Risk: Weak volume divergence despite strong options flow
---
### ⚠️ Key Notes
* 📊 Institutional call buying ✅
* ⚠️ Low volume = reduced confirmation
* 🎯 Play is short-dated — gamma spikes expected
* 💥 Manage exits actively near target zones
---
### 🧠 Quick Recap (for speed-readers)
**MU 116C ➜ \$0.62 → \$0.89**
💥 Weekly flow supports upside
⚠️ Volume = weak, but RSI rising
⏱️ Hold short-term with stops
HIMS WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (7/29/25)*
**💊 HIMS WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (7/29/25)**
**🔥 Bullish Flow + Rising RSI + Institutional Volume**
**📈 Trade Setup**
• **Stock**: \ NYSE:HIMS
• **Direction**: CALL (LONG)
• **Strike**: \$64.00
• **Entry**: \$0.92
• **Target**: \$1.38
• **Stop**: \$0.46
• **Size**: 2 contracts
• **Expiry**: Aug 1, 2025 (3DTE)
• **Confidence**: 80%
• **Entry Timing**: Market Open
---
**🧠 Why This Trade?**
✅ **Call/Put Ratio = 1.37** → Bullish sentiment
✅ **RSI Daily: 65.2 / Weekly: 61.3** → Momentum building
✅ **1.8x Weekly Volume Surge** → Institutional accumulation
✅ **\$64C OI = 2,616** → High liquidity + interest
⚠️ **Gamma Risk + Fast Decay** → Time-sensitive play
---
**🎯 Strategy**
→ Play the momentum spike into expiry
→ Exit quickly on profit target or 50% stop
**#OptionsTrading #HIMS #SwingTrade #EarningsPlay #TradingViewSetup #FlowTrade**
Swing & Positional Trading and Stock Options Setup _ High Beta✅ Final Setup for Positional and Swing Trades (High Beta Liquid Stocks for Cash and Options)
This trading guide outlines a simple and effective setup for both positional and swing trades, focused on high beta, highly liquid stocks. Follow the rules strictly for better consistency and profitability.
🔹 Positional Trade Setup
Chart Setup:
• Open the Monthly Chart of the stock.
• Add the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator.
• Uncheck all levels (30, 50, 70) and only keep one level at 60.
• Edit the level from 70 to 60 and highlight it in green.
Entry Criteria:
• Stock must cross the 60 RSI level on the monthly chart.
• Entry is only triggered if the price breaks the previous month's high.
Stop Loss:
• Place the initial stop loss below the previous month's low.
Trailing Stop Loss:
• Trail the stop loss to the current month’s low, but only after the monthly candle closes.
• Continue trailing the stop loss every month using this method until exit.
Exit Rule:
• Exit the positional trade only if the current month’s candle closes below the previous month’s low.
⚡ Note: The RSI 60+ setup is a powerful momentum strategy with high reward probability.
🔹 Swing Trade Setup
Precondition:
• Monthly RSI must cross above the 60 level.
• Switch to the Daily Chart of the stock.
• Entry Criteria:
• Identify the current swing high on the daily chart.
• Entry is triggered only when the stock breaks the swing high.
Stop Loss:
• Place the stop loss below the current swing low.
• If unsure how to mark swing low, then use a daily close below RSI 60 as your stop.
Trailing Stop Loss:
• If the trade moves in your favor, trail the stop loss to each day’s low.
Exit Rule:
• Exit the swing trade only if RSI crosses back below 60 with a daily candle close.
🔥 Stock Options Trading Strategy – Built on Core Swing/Positional Principles (75% Win Rate Setup)
I’m now sharing a Stock Options Trading Concept that follows the same core principles but is tailored specifically for liquid stock options.
For this strategy, you will strictly focus only on those High Beta Liquid Stocks provided below-
✅ Strategy Setup
🔹 Timeframe Filters:
• Monthly RSI > 60 (RSI has crossed and is holding above 60)
• Weekly RSI > 60 (same condition as above)
• Daily RSI: RSI must be crossing 60 or on the verge of crossing
Now, on the Daily Chart, mark the current swing high and swing low.
📌 Two Entry Approaches:
Approach 1: Breakout Entry
• Entry: When swing high is broken.
• Stop Loss (SL): Swing low or previous week’s low.
Approach 2: Pullback Entry
• Wait for a retracement from swing high (should not exceed 50% retracement).
• Confirmation of pullback weakness: Volume bars should be shrinking/decreasing.
• Entry: On breakout of the last candle high of the pullback.
• Stop Loss: Swing low or previous week’s low.
Once in the trade, trail your stop loss to cost after 3 consecutive bullish candles.
📤 Exit Rules
• Exit the Stock Options position only if the Daily RSI closses below 60 level.
⚠️ Important Guidelines for Stock Options
• 💡 Trade with only 1 lot. Never exceed your lot size.
• 📅 Enter after 2 days of the monthly expiry and exit before 2 days of next monthly expiry to avoid smart money manipulation.
• 🎯 Choose strike prices in multiples of 25, 50, 75, or 100 for better liquidity.
Example: If stock is at 1564, choose 1550 ITM or 1575 ATM.
• ⏱️ For quick exits, always place exit orders at round numbers like 5 or 10 levels.
• Example: If you entered at ₹70 and the option is at ₹144, place an exit at ₹140 or ₹145—not any random price.
For PE buying-
Monthly RSI < 40
Weekly RSI < 40
Daily RSi crossing 40 or below
Same process for PE with 2 approach as you like but in reverse form.
📊 75 High-Beta, Highly Liquid NSE Stocks
These stocks are liquid, fundamentally strong, and mostly traded in the F&O segment — giving you both flexibility and depth.
🚗 Auto
• Bajaj Auto
• Bosch Ltd
• Eicher Motors
• Hero Motocorp
• Maruti Suzuki
• TVS Motors
• Tata Motors
🏦 Banking & Financial Services
• Bank of Baroda
• Kotak Mahindra Bank
• Axis Bank
• ICICI Bank
• HDFC Bank
• IndusInd Bank
• Bajaj Finserv
• Bajaj Finance
• SBI
🧪 Chemicals
• Aarti Industries
• Atul Ltd
• Navin Fluorine
• UPL
• Tata Chemicals
🍫 FMCG
• Britannia Industries
• Godrej Consumer
• Tata Consumer
• DMart
• Hindustan Unilever
• Dabur
💊 Pharma & Healthcare
• Apollo Hospitals
• Alkem Labs
• Biocon
• Divis Labs
• Dr. Reddy’s
• IPCA Labs
• Laurus Labs
• Lupin
• Aurobindo Pharma
• Sun Pharma
• Cipla
💻 IT Sector
• HCL Technologies
• Infosys
• LTIMindtree
• TCS
• Tech Mahindra
• Wipro
⛓️ Steel & Metals
• APL Apollo Tubes
• JSW Steel
• Jindal Steel
• Tata Steel
• Hindalco
• L&T
🛢️ Oil & Gas
• Reliance Industries
• Gujarat Gas
• Indraprastha Gas (IGL)
• Mahanagar Gas (MGL)
• Tata Power
🏢 Realty
• DLF Ltd
• Godrej Properties
• Lodha (Macrotech Developers)
• Oberoi Realty
• Phoenix Mills
🛋️ Durables & Others
• Sona BLW (Sona Comstar)
• Amber Enterprises
• Bata India
• Crompton Greaves
• Dixon Technologies
• Titan Company
• ACC Cement
• Ambuja Cement
• Ultratech Cement
• Voltas Ltd
• Polycab India
• Mazagon Dock (Mazdock)
• Asian Paints
• Berger Paints
📝 Final Thoughts
This is not just a strategy — it’s a framework to reprogram your trading mindset. Use higher timeframes, respect structure, and focus only on high-probability setups. You’re not here for noise. You’re here for moves that matter.
If this helped you, prepare a trading journal based on this strategy. Stay focused. Be consistent. Trade less, but trade right.
Midcap and Small cap stocks are only used for Positional Trading Long Setup for longer periods ex 6 months to a year.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 30th July 2025)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
-Advance GDP q/q
-Federal Funds Rate
-FOMC Statement
-FOMC Press Conference
Notes:
- Bullish closure after daily liquidity sweep
- Looking for price to respect 0.618 fib level
- Potential BUY if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: -
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Is Novo Nordisk a buy? Novo Nordisk $NYSE: NVO plummets 22% on July 29, wiping out $57.5B in market value!
Here's what's happening and how I see it.
Here’s the breakdown on why the stock hit its lowest since Nov 2022:
Slashed 2025 Guidance: Sales growth cut to 8–14% from 13–21%, operating profit to 10–16% from 16–24%. Weak U.S. demand for Wegovy & Ozempic, plus competition from cheaper compounded GLP-1 drugs (i.e. grey market), cited as key issues.
CEO Shake-Up: Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen out, Maziar Doustdar in as CEO effective Aug 7. Investors worry Doustdar’s limited U.S. experience could hurt Novo’s edge in its biggest market (57% of sales).
Competition: Eli Lilly’s Zepbound (20.2% weight loss vs. Wegovy’s 13.7%) & Mounjaro are stealing market share. Compounded GLP-1s from Hims & Hers add pricing pressure.
Here's what I see:
There's a strong bearish sentiment, but the stock is very underpriced.
Considering the current stock price, EPS is at an all-time high. This means investors get more earnings for their stock.
P/B, P/E, and P/S ratios are at the lowest level since 2017! This is despite revenue growth of 25%+ for 3 consecutive years.
Operating margins are still quite healthy.
The company still has a very significant share (over 50%) of the GLP1 drugs worldwide.
The valuation of this company is now at the best level of the last 7-8 years.
There might be more volatility ahead, but I see the recent price drop as an opportunity to buy a pharma giant at a big discount, giving investors a margin of safety.
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
XauUsdThere are two analyses.
As you can see, the overall trend is bullish and long positions have more chances, the important market points are drawn accurately and have high validity.
The red arrow has a 60% chance of occurring and the blue arrow has a 40% chance.
Important market points:
Resistance:
3340
3369
3390
3422
Support:
3303
3280
AUDUSD Still early days
20% in me:
Unless strong bullish fundamentals present themselves or the big boys with the big bucks drive a bullish push anywhere from 0.65784 or resistance, I would be looking to sell.
Buy outside the resistance box
TP:0.66600 new immediate high?
Please also consider price action as there are 2 previous rejections in the 0.65784 price area.
80% in me:
-Australia is heavily tied to China via exports
RBA rate cuts?
Falling iron ore prices...
-Perfect price action channel trade. SELL at resistance BUY at support. Bullish long term, bearish short term.
-fib 0.382 downward continuation and close below 0.65784
-Looking for a break below the upward sloping trendline HARD sell
-safer option: wait for a 0.65780 retest, below the upward sloping trendline sells and make bank.
TP: 0.6500
THOUGHTS?
7/30: Watch for Sell Opportunities in the 3352–3363 ZoneGood morning, everyone!
After a period of consolidation and decline, gold has found preliminary support near the 3300 level, and early signs of a bottom formation are emerging. The key technical level now lies around the 3332–3337 resistance zone. Based on current price structure, a breakout is likely, with major resistance seen at 3352–3358, while 3323–3316 serves as the primary support range.
However, caution is warranted as today’s ADP employment data may significantly influence short-term price action. Whether gold can hold above the 3337–3343 level depends on the data's impact.
From a broader perspective:
On the weekly chart, the 20-period moving average (MA20) has climbed to around 3276, yet the overall structure remains bearish for bulls
On the daily chart, gold is still trading below the MA60, facing notable resistance
This week's key events — ADP (Wednesday), jobless claims, and NFP (Thursday and Friday) — will likely shape gold’s medium-term trend
Trading Strategy for Today:
Focus on the 3313–3353 trading range, and be highly responsive to data-driven volatility.
Important note: If gold rises to 3343–3358 before the ADP release, then regardless of whether the data is bullish or bearish, the preferred approach is to sell into strength, as a post-data pullback is a likely scenario.
WING Earnings Play (2025-07-29)
**🍗 WING Earnings Play (2025-07-29)**
**🔥 Oversold Setup + 88% Beat Rate = Opportunity**
**🎯 Trade Plan**
• **Stock**: \ NASDAQ:WING
• **Type**: Call Option (LONG)
• **Strike**: \$290
• **Entry**: \$19.20
• **Target**: \$38.40
• **Stop**: \$9.60
• **Expiry**: Aug 15, 2025
• **Entry Time**: Before earnings (AMC 7/30)
• **Confidence**: 72%
• **Expected Move**: ±5%
• **IV Rank**: 75 (Elevated)
**📊 Why WING?**
✅ **RSI = 19** (deeply oversold)
✅ 88% earnings **beat rate** (last 8 Qs)
✅ 17.4% **YoY rev growth**
✅ Volume up 1.28x avg
📈 Setup for **volatility crush + upside surprise**
**⚠️ Risk/Reward = 2:1+**
Cut below 50% premium loss. Target double on upside earnings breakout.
CAKE Earnings Trade Setup (2025-07-29)
**🍰 CAKE Earnings Trade Setup (2025-07-29)**
🎯 **Bullish Bias** | Confidence: **72%**
💡 **Historical Beat Rate: 88%** | Strong pre-earnings drift
**📊 TRADE DETAILS**
• **Instrument**: \ NASDAQ:CAKE
• **Strategy**: Buy CALL
• **Strike**: 67.50
• **Entry**: \$1.45
• **Target**: \$2.90+
• **Stop**: \$0.72
• **Expiry**: 2025-08-15
• **Timing**: Pre-earnings close (AMC)
**📈 Setup Rationale:**
✅ History of positive earnings surprises
✅ Stock above key MAs with room to run
⚠️ Margin pressure & mixed options flow = manage risk closely
**🔥 Risk/Reward: \~2:1+**
Cut early if earnings miss. Target 200%+ return on surprise beat.
**MARA Earnings Setup – TradingView Breakdown**
🚨 **MARA Earnings Setup – TradingView Breakdown** 🚨
📅 *Earnings Play for 07/29/2025*
🎯 *Strike: \$17.00 Call | Exp: 08/01/2025*
💰 *Premium: \$0.59 | Target: \$1.18*
📈 *Conviction: 75% Bullish*
🔹
---
🧠 **What’s the Setup?**
MARA just raised \$950M to expand BTC holdings 💥
Revenue YoY growth: **+29.5%** 📊
Margins still rough: **-46.7% profit**, but potential catalyst is 🔥 if BTC pumps.
---
🧨 **Options Flow Is Heating Up**
👀 Massive open interest on **\$17 Calls**
🤏 Put/Call Skew slightly bullish
🧮 IV low despite high beta (6.55) = **cheap volatility play**
---
📉 **Oversold + Coiled Tight**
📉 RSI: 38.57 (Oversold)
📍 Support: \$16.50 | Resistance: \$17.50
💣 Sitting at key technical inflection pre-earnings.
---
🔮 **Trade Idea**
🎯 *Buy \$17C @ \$0.59*
🚀 Target: \$1.18 (2x gain)
🛑 Stop: \$0.30
📆 Exit within 2 hrs post-ER to avoid IV crush
---
📊 **Risk/Reward**
💰 Max Loss: \$59
📈 Potential Gain: \$118
⚖️ R\:R = 2:1
---
🔥 **Why It Could Go Viral**
✅ Bitcoin bullish narrative
✅ High beta + cheap IV = explosive setup
✅ Oversold technicals + earnings catalyst
---
🔁 **Like & Save this if you're playing MARA ER 🔥**
\#MARA #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #BitcoinStocks #TradingView #ShortSqueeze #CallOptions #HighBetaSetup #CryptoStocks #EarningsSeason #MARAAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Fintok #Finfluencer
LINK - The sleeping Giant ready to wake!Don't forget to add LINK to your watchlist — it's a solid project with long-term investment potential.
The weekly chart shows that LINK is currently retesting the downtrend line it recently broke — a textbook bullish retest.
The lower trendline now acts as a key support level, and as long as price holds above it, the structure remains healthy.
Currently trading around $17.6, the price hasn’t moved significantly yet —
You’ve got:
✅ A strong fundamental project
✅ A bullish technical setup
✅ Large market cap
✅ Still early entry
What more do you need to enter?
Accumulate now... and thank me later.
Best Regards:
Ceciliones🎯
LC EARNINGS PLAY – STRIKE WHILE IT'S HOT!**
🚨 **LC EARNINGS PLAY – STRIKE WHILE IT'S HOT!** 🚨
📅 **Earnings Season Heat Check: LC | Jul 29**
💰 **Positioning for a Post-Earnings POP!**
---
🔥 **The Setup:**
LC’s earnings momentum is real –
📈 TTM Rev Growth: **+13.1%**
💹 EPS Surprise Rate: **150% avg**
📊 75% Beat Rate History
💵 Analyst Consensus: **Strong Buy (1.8/5)**
---
📉 **Technical Tailwind:**
✅ Price above 20D + 200D MA
✅ RSI: **60.07** – room to run
📈 Volume Spike: **+61% above 10-day avg**
🚀 Options flow targeting **\$14 CALLS** w/ OI: **864** / Vol: **737**
---
📌 **TRADE IDEA**
🎯 Buy: **\$14.00 Call @ \$0.70**
📆 Exp: **Aug 15, 2025**
🎯 Target: **\$2.10** (Risk/Reward = 1:3)
🛑 Stop: **\$0.35**
---
⚠️ **Earnings Risk:** IV crush real.
🎯 Exit within 2 hours **post-EPS** if no move.
Macro tailwinds + financial sector rotation = 🚀 fuel.
**Beta = 2.45** → Big move potential incoming!
---
🧠 Confidence Level: **75%**
⏰ Timing: Pre-Earnings Close
🧾 Model-Driven Strategy | No Hype, Just Edge.
---
💥 Let’s ride the LC earnings wave – \$15+ in sight! 💥
\#LendingClub #LC #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #TradingView #StocksToWatch #CallOption #Fintech #SwingTrade #EarningsHustle #BullishSetup #IVCrush #EarningsGamma #ShortTermTrade
Latest on Fed rate cut debateThe Fed isn’t expected to cut rates this week, but this FOMC meeting should still be very interesting.
Powell will need to address growing pressure from board members Waller and Bowman, who’ve both called for cuts, citing limited inflation impact from tariffs.
Still, Powell is just one of 12 votes on the FOMC, and there’s little sign of broader support for a cut.
With the labour market steady and early signs of tariff-driven inflation, the Fed has reason to hold. The rate decision is due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
This decision will further widen the rift between the Fed and President Trump, whose frustration has grown in recent weeks, with renewed attacks on Powell’s leadership.
The tension has drawn international attention. On Monday, the IMF issued a warning about political interference in central banks, which can pose a threat to global financial stability.
MKR/USDT 4H Chart📉 Short-term situation:
The price is currently trading around 2028 USDT, after a sharp decline from around 2273 USDT (resistance).
The support level around 2000 USDT is currently being tested (coinciding with the SMA 200 – blue line).
A dynamic uptrend line (orange) is also visible, which could act as a key support level in the event of further declines.
🔍 Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance:
🔴 2188 USDT – recent local high and convergence with the SMA 21.
🟢 2273 USDT – major resistance; previous rebound and point of significant price reaction.
Support:
🔵 1980 USDT – local support + SMA200.
🟠 Uptrend line (~1940–1960 USDT).
🔴 1832 USDT – stronger horizontal support with multiple confirmations.
🔴 1623 USDT – very strong support, from previous lows.
📊 Technical indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current value: ~42, neutral, but approaching the oversold zone (<30).
The RSI is falling rapidly, suggesting selling pressure, but a reaction is possible near current support.
MACD:
Negative signal: signal line crossing from above + descending histogram.
Indicates a continuation of the correction, but we are approaching the potential exhaustion of the downward momentum.
📈 Moving averages:
EMA/SMA 50 and 200:
The price is currently testing the SMA200 – crucial for the medium-term trend.
SMA21 (red) and SMA50 (green) – have reversed downward, which may suggest a weakening of bullish momentum.
🔮 Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish scenario (confirmation of support):
A rebound from 1980–2000 USDT and further upward movement.
Potential target: first ~2180 USDT, then ~2273 USDT.
The condition is a demand response at the current level + an improvement in the RSI/MACD.
🔴 Bearish scenario (breakout of support):
If the 1980 USDT level is broken and the price falls below the uptrend line, a continued decline to 1832 USDT or even lower is possible.
Confirmation will be a strong bearish candle with high volume and a further decline in the RSI/MACD.
SILVER Is About to Collapse? Watch This Critical Supply Zone!Price recently tapped a high near 39.20 before sharply rejecting from the 38.80–39.20 supply zone, confirming strong selling pressure. The current structure shows:
- Supply zone tested and rejected
- Likely return to the previous demand zone (36.50–36.00)
- RSI is turning down, confirming loss of momentum
A pullback toward 38.30–38.50, followed by a bearish continuation toward the 36.50 area, which acts as a key structural and institutional support.
🗓️ Seasonality
Historically, July is bullish for silver:
Last 5Y average: +0.89%
Last 2Y average: +2.18%
However, August–September are bearish months:
August: mildly positive, but weak
September: consistently negative across all time frames (-0.86% to -1.10%)
This increases the probability of a downward move starting in early August, in line with current price action rejection.
🪙 Commitment of Traders (COT) – July 22
Non-Commercials (speculators):
Longs: +656
Shorts: -516
Commercials (hedging):
Longs: +1,337
Shorts: +916
➡️ Commercials are increasing both long and short exposure, while non-commercials remain net long — a sign of moderate optimism.
However, long positioning is slowing down compared to previous weeks. A potential exhaustion in bullish momentum is forming.
📉 Sentiment
52% short vs 48% long
Volume: more lots on the short side (492 vs 454)
Sentiment remains neutral to slightly contrarian bullish, but not extreme. This may allow for a fake breakout before a deeper move down.
🧩 Operational Summary
Main bias: Bearish short to mid-term (starting August), supported by:
- Technical rejection at supply
- Negative seasonal tendencies ahead
- RSI showing momentum loss
- COT showing stabilization, not accumulation
Crude Oil Spikes - Russia / Ukraine / USA sanction? Concerns about the possibility of tighter global oil supplies are supporting crude prices after President Trump warned of "secondary sanctions" if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days.
These sanctions have absolutely burned the shorts in oil and can cause a 3 bar surge on the daily chart if crude breaks this channel.
Keep you eye on the daily 200 MA...if it holds above we should push higher on crude.
FOMC RATE DECISION TOMORROW - Tune into our live stream.
Oil Market Sentiment Shifts After Trump’s Urgent Warning, but...On June 23, 2025, at 9:35 AM, President Donald J. Trump issued a stark warning via social media:
"EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!"
Since his post, oil prices experienced a notable bullish impulse. From both fundamental and technical perspectives, the market is now approaching a 16-hour supply zone, which could serve as a potential resistance area.
Additionally, I’ve observed a divergence in trader positioning: non-commercial traders increased their short positions significantly last week, while retail traders remain long. This divergence between price action and non-commercial positions suggests a possible shift in momentum, and I am currently eyeing a short setup.
As always, I encourage traders to conduct their own analysis. The trader featured below operates on the D1 timeframe and focuses on scalping, which can be useful for short-term entries.
Stay cautious and keep an eye on how the market reacts near the identified supply zone.
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