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Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for February 27, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is declining against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday, although it remains near the highest level since October 2024 reached earlier this week. Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda last week about a potential increase in regular bond purchases led to a further decline in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. In addition, concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and a positive tone on risks proved to be key factors undermining the yen exchange rate. However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year amid rising inflation in Japan. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates. What's more, previously released U.S. consumer inflation data suggests that the Fed doesn't have much room to cut rates this year. This, in turn, pushed US Treasury bond yields up, widening the yield differential between the US and Japan and limiting the upside potential for the low-yielding Yen. Trading recommendation: BUY 149.200, SL 148.800, TP 150.000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Precious metals declined due to tariff policiesPrecious metals declined due to US President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies but remained anchored at high levels because of this. On February 25, Mr. Trump directed a study of the possibility of imposing new tariffs on imported copper to rebuild US production of metals critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, power grids and many other consumer goods. He also announced he would soon expand his trade war to include a 25% tariff on goods from the European Union (EU)... Investors are waiting for the US personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) report, a favorite inflation measure of the Federal Reserve (FED), scheduled to be announced on February 28. How inflation develops can affect the FED's interest rate policy this year and impact the precious metals trend. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the possibility that the US Central Bank will continue to delay further interest rate cuts. Meger added that as one of the key hedges against inflationary pressures, gold should appreciate more.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Monthly chart Bitcoin, playing out just as expectedIn this analysis, we’ll explore how big news events and market behavior affect Bitcoin's price, focusing on political changes. Impact of Big News Events: - When significant news hits, like a change in government, it can drive markets in a certain direction. For example, when Trump won the election, it created a surge of energy that pushed Bitcoin’s price up. - This shows how big events and public sentiment can cause major shifts in cryptocurrency prices. Technical Analysis and Market Behavior: - Technical analysis looks at how traders' emotions and predictions shape market movements. For instance, traders often use the Fibonacci sequence to make trading decisions. Current Market Situation: - The chart shows we are experiencing a sell-off, which is a temporary drop in price. This drop is part of a normal correction that we expect to bounce back up from the trend line. - We’re in the second wave of this new trendline. Elliot wave theory means you can generally expect 5 waves before a major reversal. The next upward move is expected after all the selling has settled, especially in the long green candle area. (Imbalance to be filled) Expected Market Behavior: - In cryptocurrency trading, it’s common to see prices dip below trend lines before bouncing back up strongly. - We can expect Bitcoin to dip further below the trendline before bouncing back up with more force, like a trampoline. This is 100% necessary to absorb the liquidity of market makers, retail investors, and institutional long positions to rally the digital asset to new heights 😎 That being said, Never trade more than you can afford to lose. DYOR, and keep in mind black swan events can happen like a major war to shift the trend line a different direction
Long
by LatterRainInvestments
(COT) Data: Institutions are increasing short positions -sell 📊 CURRENT MARKET OVERVIEW 📈💎 Current Price: $2,911.11 High of the Day: $2,930.17 Major Resistance (R3): $2,944.95 Recently Broken Resistance (R2, now Support): $2,930.81 Key Dynamic Support (50 EMA): $2,919.83 Psychological Support (S1): $2,906.72 📌 50 EMA is derived from the 15-minute chart data. 🔍 INSTITUTIONAL ORDER FLOW & LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS 🏦📊 US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently at 106.43, indicating a slight strengthening of the USD, which inversely affects gold prices. Institutional Order Flow: The market exhibits a strong bearish trend, with 92.86% of moving averages signaling a downward movement. This suggests heavy institutional selling pressure. 💀🔥 Liquidity Map: High sell orders are stacked around $2,930.81 resistance level, signaling potential liquidity traps for retail traders. 🐻 Market Maker Activity: Clear evidence of engineered liquidity sweeps above resistance zones to trigger retail stop-losses before a larger downward move. Retail traders are the prey – we are the hunters! 🚀🔥 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data: Institutions are increasing short positions, confirming smart money is positioned for a bearish move. 🏦🔥 📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – MOMENTUM & TREND INDICATORS 🔥 ✔ RSI (14): 41.972, indicating we are approaching oversold but not quite there yet. Perfect for a continued drop! 💀📉✔ Stochastic Oscillator: 69.898, neutral but leaning bearish. We take advantage! 🚀✔ Moving Averages: All major MAs (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) scream SELL! 📉📉📉 ✔ Volume Trends: Buying volume is drying up. Institutions are exiting longs – BEARISH CONTINUATION! 🚀🔥 📢 TRADE RECOMMENDATION – ULTRA AGGRESSIVE SHORT! 🔥 🔴 SELL XAU/USD NOW! 🏦🚀📉 Entry Point: $2,911.11 🔥 Stop-Loss (SL): $2,919.90 (Above pivot – Protect against manipulations!) Take-Profit (TP): $2,887.17 (Next institutional support!) Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 – Maximum Profit, Minimum Risk! ⚡ EXECUTION PLAN – GO FOR THE KILL! ⚡ 🎯 Price Action Confirmation: Watch for a bearish engulfing candle or a clean break below $2,906.72! 💀📉 🏦 Order Flow Validation: If sell orders stack up and DXY strengthens further, it’s a GREEN LIGHT for the drop! 🚀🔥 🔥 FINAL DECISION – MILKING THE MARKET STRATEGY! 🏆💰🚀 ✅ CONFIRMED – INITIATE A HIGH-CONFIDENCE SHORT! 🔥 📌 SELL at $2,911.11 – SL at $2,919.90 – TP at $2,887.17!📌 Institutions are shorting; market is primed for a deeper drop! 🚀💀📉📌 Retail traders will get rekt – we milk the market every day! 💰💰💰 🚀 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! 🚀💰🔥
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MAHARLIKA_FX
2
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 27th February 2025)Bias: No bias USD News(Red Folder): -Prelim GDP q/q -Unemployment Claims Analysis: -Price closed back to market open price on previous daily -Waiting for retest of 0.5 fib level or liquidity sweep on daily equal low -Potential BUY/SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe -Pivot point: 2930 , 2880 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by HM_fxtrading
Trade Idea: XAUUSD Long ( BUY STOP )Analysis: 1. Daily Chart: • Strong uptrend with price making higher highs and higher lows. • MACD is bullish, and RSI is at 62.67 (still below overbought territory). • No major resistance above the current level, suggesting continuation. 2. 15-Min Chart: • Price is recovering from a recent pullback. • MACD is turning positive, signaling a potential bullish move. • RSI at 53.30 suggests room for upside. 3. 3-Min Chart: • Consolidation near 2916.88, indicating a possible breakout. • MACD and RSI show signs of bullish momentum returning. Trade Setup: • Position: Long (Buy) • Entry: 2920 (above recent consolidation) • Stop-Loss (SL): 2908 (recent minor support) • Take-Profit (TP): 2944 (next key resistance) • Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 2:1 Fundamental Justification: • Gold remains bullish due to inflation concerns and potential rate cut expectations from the Fed. • No significant bearish catalyst, and momentum favors bulls. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by KeN-WeNzEl
Liquidity Grab Above $2,920: Institutions might sweep liquidity 🔥 ULTRA AGGRESSIVE TRADING PLAN – FEBRUARY 27, 2025 🔥 📌 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! 💰🔥🚀 📊 REAL-TIME MARKET DATA & CONFIRMATION CHECKLIST 📈 ✅ PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS 💲 Current Price: $2,917.675 🚀 Resistance Zone: $2,917 - $2,920 (Strong institutional sell zone) 🛑 Major Resistance (R3): $2,925.104 📉 Key Dynamic Support: $2,912 - $2,910 🔻 Psychological Support: $2,900.053 ✅ TECHNICAL INDICATORS CONFIRMATION 📉 MACD: Bearish divergence forming, indicating slowing momentum ⚠️ 📊 RSI (7): Near overbought levels, showing exhaustion 🚨 📉 VWAP: Price slightly above VWAP, signaling a potential rejection 📉 📏 Fibonacci Retracement: 61.8% Zone at $2,917 - $2,920, a perfect reversal level 🌀 ✅ INSTITUTIONAL ORDER FLOW & LIQUIDITY INSIGHTS 🏦💰 ⚠️ Liquidity Grab Above $2,920: Institutions might sweep liquidity before dumping price 🎯 📉 COT Data: Institutional traders are heavily shorting from this level 🏦💰 🔴 Order Block Detected: $2,915 - $2,920 is a major liquidity trap! 🚨 📈 FINAL TRADE SETUP – SELL ENTRY PLAN 🔥 🔴 SELL NOW IF PRICE REJECTS $2,917 - $2,920 AGAIN! 📉 Profit Targets (TPs) 🎯: 🎯 TP1: $2,910 (First support level) 🎯 TP2: $2,900 (Psychological level & demand zone) 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): $2,922 (Above manipulation zone to avoid stop-hunts!) 🚨 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 🚀 HIGH WIN PROBABILITY! 🔥 FINAL DECISION – YES, SELL XAU/USD NOW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE! 🔥 📌 Entry Zone: $2,917 - $2,920 🚨 📌 Target: TP1 = $2,910 | TP2 = $2,900 💰 📌 Stop Loss: $2,922 (Avoid market manipulation wicks) 🛑 🔥 MILKING THE MARKET – EXECUTE WITH ULTRA-AGGRESSIVE PRECISION! 💰🚀🔥 🎯 Trade with institutional-level execution and confidence! ⚡ This is a high-probability short setup with massive profit potential! 💰 Lock in gains, manage risk, and execute the perfect sell trade! 🚀 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! 🔥💰🔥💰🔥 This trading plan is designed with institutional-level insights and ultra-aggressive execution to maximize profit and win rate. Stick to the plan, follow confirmations, and execute with precision! 🚀🔥
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MAHARLIKA_FX
BigCommerce | BIGC | Long at $7.15BigCommerce NASDAQ:BIGC is growing. Revenue in FY2020 was $152 million and in FY2024 it rose to $333 million. In 2025, the company is targeting $342.1M-$350.1M revenue with focus on B2B growth. Free cash flow in FY2024 was positive for the first time at $22 million. Stay cautious, however, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6x... insiders have recently grabbed $100k+ in shares as well as awarded themselves options. While the price gap near the mid $5 range may be closed in the near-term, the longer-term outlook here seems positive unless the company fundamentals change. The price has also entered my historical simple moving average zone/lines, which is often a bullish signal. Thus, at $7.15, NASDAQ:BIGC is in a personal buy zone. Targets: $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $11.00
NASDAQ:BIGCLong
by WorthlessViews
Applied Materials | AMAT | Long at $169.75Republican Ashley Moody recently dropped $200k-$500k on Applied Materials $NASDAQ:AMAT. The semiconductor boom may not be over... Price-to-earnings: 21.68x (great in comparison to others...) Debt-to-equity: 0.34x (low) Cash flow: $10.4 billion (FY2024) Insiders awarded options recently Unless NASDAQ:NVDA brings the market down, NASDAQ:AMAT is in a personal buy zone at $169.75. While the price may dip in the near-term to the $140s, bullish until the semi boom dies... Targets: $195.00 $215.00 $240.00
NASDAQ:AMATLong
by WorthlessViews
JOURNAL FOR MGC1!Today I placed two trades on MGC1! my first entry was a sell scalp which was strictly a technical entry and the second was the buy back up because it goes with the bias of gold being bullish, and inflation fears, so for each trade Ive wait on a area of consolidation (order block) then wait on a break out in this case after that impulsive move to the downside on gold I waited for an area of support to form with rejections of pushing lower at this point an order block should start forming, I tend to get a better structure of an order block forming on the 5min, once a bullish engulfing to print above the last high then I take the trade, today I had no draw down my entry was precise!
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by FuturesBaddie
JUPITER ($JUPUSD)—SOLANA’S DEFI STAR SHINES?JUPITER (JUP)—SOLANA’S DEFI STAR SHINES? (1/9) Good morning, X! Jupiter (JUP) is buzzing 💸 $ 3.7B Nov ‘23 volume, $ 1.07 price 🌍 Q1 ‘25 let’s unpack this crypto contender! (2/9) – VOLUME HUM • Nov ‘23: $ 3.7B—Solana DEX lead 💡 • Jan ‘25: $ 3M revenue—fees stack 📊 • Supply: 1.35B JUP—$ 1.45B cap 🌟 JUP’s hauling—Solana’s DeFi engine! (3/9) – CASH GLOW • Fees: 500K−650K daily—Ultra Mode 🚀 • Buyback: 50% fees snag JUP—locked 🌞 • Price: $ 1.07—down 65% from $ 1.85 💎 JUP’s cash flows—steady grind! (4/9) – BIG MOVES • Buyback: 16M+ JUP/mo.—supply shrinks 📈 • Sanctum: SOL debit card—real spend 🌐 • Features: DCA, futures—DeFi zip 🚗 JUP’s stretching—crypto’s toolbox! (5/9) – RISKS ON TAP • Delay: Mainnet lags—Q1 ‘25 wobbles ⚠️ • Control: Team grips—central snag 🔒 • Comp: Uniswap bites—tight race 📉 Hot buzz—can it dodge the traps? (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Lead: $ 3.7B vol.—Solana champ 💪 • Cash: $ 3M Jan—fee beast 🏋️ • Tools: Swap, futures—steady juice 🌱 JUP’s a DeFi hauler—built tough! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: Token lock, 65% drop—eek 🙈 • Opportunities: Buybacks, Solana lift—zing 🌏 Can JUP vault past the snags? (8/9) – JUP’s $ 1.07 buzz—what’s your take? 1️⃣ Bullish—$ 3+ stacks up 😎 2️⃣ Neutral—Solid, risks linger 🤷 3️⃣ Bearish—Dips below $ 0.63 😕 Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY JUP’s $ 3.7B vol and $ 1.07 price pile up—Solana hauler 🪙 Buybacks spark, risks loom—gem or bust?
KRAKEN:JUPUSDLong
by DCAChampion
3
Ethena $ENA is Heating Up – Institutional AdoptionThis weeek, Ethena Labs and its synthetic stablecoin USDe have been making waves in the crypto space. Here’s what’s happening: 1. Massive $100M Funding Round in Dec 2024 reveald Ethena raised $100M in a private sale of BINANCE:ENAUSDT tokens to support its new blockchain for TradFi institutions. Key investors: Franklin Templeton & F-Prime Capital (Fidelity’s VC arm). The private sale was reportedly completed in December 2024, offering Ethena’s eponymous governance token, BINANCE:ENAUSDT , to investors at an average price of $0.40. New product launch: iUSDe, a stablecoin designed specifically for institutional finance. Why it matters: This signals deepening TradFi interest in crypto-native stablecoins. If major financial firms are getting involved, it suggests long-term strategic positioning. 2. MEXC Drops $20M on USDe – Plus $1M in Rewards MEXC acquired $20M in USDe to promote stablecoin adoption. $1M reward campaign launched to incentivize staking & usage. MEXC Ventures also invested $16M in Ethena Labs to support ecosystem growth. Why it matters: Exchanges are not just listing USDe—they’re actively acquiring it and pushing incentives to drive adoption. This could significantly increase its market presence vs. USDT & USDC. 3. Risk Management Upgrade – Chaos Labs’ Oracles Ethena integrated Chaos Labs’ Edge Proof of Reserves Oracles. Goal: Enhance transparency and independent verification of USDe reserves. Comes right after USDe volatility due to Bybit’s $1.5B ETH hack. Why it matters: Ethena is addressing concerns about reserve security & DeFi transparency, which could attract more institutional capital. 4. Partnership with Trump’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) Ethena’s sUSDe stablecoin will serve as a collateral asset for WLFI. WLFI is backed by Trump’s family and allies, positioning itself as a “Made in USA” financial platform. Aave’s risk assessment approved sUSDe, increasing its legitimacy. Why it matters: This could bring Ethena closer to regulatory approval and Republican-friendly financial networks, boosting its institutional credibility in the US. Key Market Reactions & Speculation USDe supply is nearing 6B, making it the 3rd largest stablecoin after USDT & USDC. ENA price surged 8.5% in 24 hours, as whales accumulate. Some speculate big investors are positioning ahead of major announcements. Final Thoughts – What’s Next? BINANCE:ENAUSDT has dropped to $0.40 – exactly the private sale price from December 2024, where institutional investors like Franklin Templeton & F-Prime Capital (Fidelity VC) entered. Why This Level Matters: Final Weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap) support zone – macro trend remains intact if it holds. Institutional break-even level – smart money doesn’t like losing; potential for re-accumulation. iUSDe Launch Coming Soon – a major narrative driver for the ecosystem. USDe adoption & integrations expanding (Chaos Labs oracles, WLFI partnership, MEXC buy-in). If a major listing or ETF tie-in happens, ENA could explode—but if USDe faces regulatory pressure, we might see a harsh correction. Risks: Still, USDe is NOT a fiat-backed stablecoin. Its yield model (9%) and DeFi integration mean risks remain. How to Play This? Option 1: DCA Now – Accumulate here while price stabilizes in the demand zone. Option 2: Wait for LTF Range – Look for deviations & liquidity sweeps before confirming re-accumulation.
Long
by Goldfinch_song
1
Block | XYZ | Long at $64.84Block's NYSE:XYZ revenue is anticipated to grow from $24 billion in FY2024 to $32 billion in FY2027. With a current price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8x, debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36x, and rising cash flow in the billions, it's a decent value stock at its current price. Understandably, there is some hesitation among investors due to competitive fintech market and economic headwinds. But, like PayPal NASDAQ:PYPL , growth is building. From a technical analysis perspective, the price dropped to within my historical simple moving average bands. Often, but not always, this signals a momentum change and the historical simple moving average lines indicate an upward change may be ahead. While the open price gaps on the daily chart in the $40s and GETTEX:50S may be closed before a true move up occurs, NYSE:XYZ is in a personal buy zone at $64.84. Targets: $80.00 $90.00 $100.00 [*) $134.00 (very long-term)
NYSE:XYZLong
by WorthlessViews
2
Journal on NQ1!This morning I decided to try out a new symbol, even though it was a lost I still learned today, overall price action was ranging, but because Im a fundamental, technical trader I was able to see how each played a part in trades today. When trading this pair I know that I need to focus more on candle closures, unless its an impulsive move, today I learned to focus on candle closures, although I had a breakout from a consolidation, I entered impulsivly when all I had to do was wait on the candle to close below the last low and either wait on a retest or just place the trade, because I didnt over leverage I didnt have to worry about blowing my account, moving forward I will set alerts and be patient. I won today mentally!!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by FuturesBaddie