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$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown. Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time. It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market. The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending). Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities. What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years. All the best, Tim April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
TVC:DXYShort
by timwest
4
ICON — Breakout from Rectangle with H Projection Targeting $700ICON (3D) — Technical Structure Analysis ICON has broken out from a prolonged horizontal rectangle pattern ($380–$540). The move activated a measured move structure with two H-sized waves. The first H was completed. The second H projects a move to the $700 area. Key points: -Confirmed breakout from range -First H = 153 pts, completed -Second H = 162 pts, targeting $700 -Price holding above breakout zone ($515–$541) ICON has moved out of accumulation and entered trend expansion. As long as the support holds, the scenario remains valid. The technical model targets the $700 area.
TASE:ICONLong
by TotoshkaTrades
SOL | Short-Term Long | Key Resistance | (April 2025)SOL | Short-Term Long | Key Resistance & Liquidity Flip | (April 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: Solana has reached a critical resistance zone after a wave of short liquidations. While the broader crypto market is showing strength, SOL is at a decision point that requires caution. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Short-term Long (with tight risk control) Entry: Around current price near resistance (approx. $125–$128) Stop Loss: Just below recent swing lows (can adjust based on volatility) TP1: $138 TP2: $131 ✅ Quick partial profits planned due to high-risk reversal potential at current levels. 3️⃣ Key Notes: We’re sitting at a strong resistance zone that has seen multiple overlaps in recent days. A major round of short positions was recently liquidated, which could fuel a push higher — but also makes this a tricky zone for continuation. Watch for reversal signs, and manage risk tightly. Overall market sentiment is leaning bullish, which supports the long-term potential for SOL if it can break through. 4️⃣ Follow-up Note: Will reassess based on how price reacts around $131 and $138. May update if momentum picks up or structure changes. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Long
by Risk_Adj_Return
Gold Analysis April 22Gold is having a slight correction after touching the round resistance level of 3500. The candlestick force on the h1 time frame is supporting gold to increase again at the end of the European session. Pay attention to the breakout zone around 73 and the ATH zone around 3500 for Sell strategies. Break 3500, do not SELL anymore but wait until 3520. The buying strategy may be more preferred for traders. The zones where the buyers have appeared in the past are 3435-3408-3385-3355. Pay attention to whether the candlestick force is really strong before making a long-term buying decision.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Trump and Powell's "power showdown" ignites global risk aversion 📌 Driving events On Tuesday (April 22), gold prices soared and set a new record high. Spot gold once hit the $3,500 mark, an increase of about 2.2%. US President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for worrying the market, suppressing risk appetite and pushing investors to turn to safe-haven gold. After hitting the 3,500 mark, the price of gold fell slightly. Spot gold is currently trading at nearly $3,478.55 per ounce. 📊Comment analysis KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer pointed out that under the double blow of tariff concerns and the Trump-Powell farce, investors are fleeing US assets across the board. The continued weakness of the US dollar has created an excellent opportunity for gold to rise. On Monday, Trump made a tough statement, asking the Federal Reserve to "cut interest rates immediately" otherwise the US economy will face the risk of slowing down. Powell insisted last week that interest rates should not be easily adjusted until the impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation becomes clear. 💰Strategy Package Long position: Actively participate near 3430, with profit target above 3500 points ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the fund account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
1
How One Candle Can Flip Market Sentiment | Watch These Key ZonesMarkets are emotional. One candle — that's all it takes to turn fear into greed, or hope into panic. Over the past few weeks, traders have been caught in headlines — tariffs, global uncertainty, and endless speculation. But if you zoom out and look at the chart objectively, the structure is telling its own story. 🧠 Key Insight: In every cycle, when fear dominates the market, it often marks the bottom. When euphoria takes over, it’s usually the top. This pattern repeats. The players change — the psychology doesn’t. 📌 Here’s what I’m watching on this chart: Support zone: Resistance to break: Market sentiment: Currently bearish, but structure suggests potential reversal if . 📊 Always remember: The market rewards those who focus on price action and structure, not the noise. Let’s see how this plays out. I’ll keep updating this idea as the move develops. Drop your thoughts below & let’s keep the analysis sharp and clear ⚔️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TRUE_TIDE
4
Planning the Trade: Crude Oil Scenarios in a Shifting Macro LandNYMEX:CL1! In volatile times, both opportunities and risks increase. Traders gain the ability to be more selective, adapting to new market regimes by adjusting risk and trade management strategies. Key tools in this process include indicators such as the Average True Range and Close-to-Close volatility sigma bands. April 20, 2020: A historic day, WTI Crude Oil prices traded negative for the first time, and we have yet another volatile April. "If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail." Preparation is essential before taking on the market head-on. Many participants choose to stay on the sidelines when volatility exceeds 1 standard deviation. Others, however, see this as an opportunity—adapting their risk per trade, adjusting targets, and refining trade management. Reducing position size can be an effective way to manage periods of heightened volatility. This Week's Trade Idea: Crude Oil We'll be reviewing Crude Oil price action with updated levels, fresh insights, and framing a trade plan with an example idea for reference. Key Levels: • April Monthly Open: 70.75 • 2025 mCVPOC: 71.13 • Yearly Open: 69.64 • 2024 Mid: 69.52 • 2025 Developing Mid: 66.52 • 2025 mCVAL: 65.08 • March 2025 Low: 64.37 • 2022 CVAL: 61.60 • 2024 Low: 59.91 The recent announcement of reciprocal tariffs, coupled with OPEC+ production plans (though scheduled earlier), and the rising uncertainty around a possible recession, have collectively weighed on demand expectations—resulting in a significant decline in oil prices. Although the 2024 low was reclaimed and prices have remained above this level, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain. Scenario 1: Push Higher Towards 2025 Mid In this scenario, we anticipate prices closing above March lows. Price then pushes higher toward the 2025 developing mid-range, re-entering the 2025 micro composite value area (mCVA). Example Trade Idea: • Timeframe: Hourly • Setup: Wait for a candle close above March lows. Look for a pullback reaction off the 2025 Value Area Low (VAL). • Entry: 64.50 • Stop: 64.00 • Target: 66.50 • Risk: 50 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 4R ________________________________________ Scenario 2: Range-Bound Price Action In this scenario, the March low acts as strong resistance, aligning with the 2025 mCVAL. Price reverts lower towards the 2022 CVAL. Example Trade Idea: • Setup: Watch for signs of buyer exhaustion near March lows. If sellers regain control, look for a move back down toward 2022 CVAL. • Timeframe: Hourly • Entry: 64.00 • Stop: 64.40 • Target: 62.00 • Risk: 40 ticks • Reward: 200 ticks • Risk/Reward Ratio: 5R ________________________________________ Important Notes: These are example trade ideas provided for educational purposes and are not intended as trade recommendations. Traders should perform their own analysis and thorough preparation before entering any positions. Please be aware that stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at the specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels. ________________________________________ Glossary: • VA: Value Area • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VAL: Value Area Low • C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.) • mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.)
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Place long orders after the adjustment is over!After gold accelerated its rise in the Asian session, it fell back in the European session and temporarily entered an adjustment cycle, accumulating strength to provide power for the next round of launch. The short-term support in the US session is 3430 and 3412. In terms of operation, go long according to the strength of the decline. There is still no guess on the top, and gradually look to 3480 and 3500! Short-term volatility has increased, and the notice has been issued before the market! Operation suggestion: Gold is long near 3410-15, and look at 3445 and 3455!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel1
Crypto is brutal to navigate alone!The truth is, crypto is brutal, and the market doesn't wait for anyone! If you're sitting on the sidelines right now, you're missing out, but if you FOMO in here now on CRYPTOCAP:BTC , you may be down 10% next week! Unless you are full-time in crypto, you should stop trying to time the market! Stop chasing pumps and start building a strategy that generates consistent returns. Solid portfolio tracking and understanding high-beta plays on CRYPTOCAP:BTC = a winning edge. Most won't bother to do it or learn how to. My students have, but will you?
by CryptoJayTrades
Gold's retracement is an opportunity to go longStay long and don't relax. Continue to buy gold when it falls back! The gold market has fluctuated violently recently, with a rise of $100 and a fall of $90, which has brought great obstacles to our trading. Long and short positions with bad entry positions will be washed out, so we need to wait patiently for opportunities in operation. The strong market remains unchanged. Continue to buy when it falls back. Find the watershed position to participate in the transaction. It is better to miss it than to be too aggressive. In the Asian session, I will share with you the support of the 3405/3410 watershed of gold. I will rely on this position to buy when it falls back. Gold hit a high of 3499 during the day, which is one step away from 3500. The European and American sessions fell back by $90, which just happened to fall back to the watershed position shared with you in the Asian session. The long orders have also been realized at the target position. Friends who have participated should pay attention to protecting profits, and friends who are short should wait patiently for opportunities and not be too aggressive!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Patrick-Daniel
Cautious Longs with potential for further weakness I’m currently looking for long entries on EURCHF. That being said, these are cautious longs with the anticipation of further strength in the Swiss Frank. I’m expecting further gains in the Swiss currency due to its safe haven appeal and the lack of room for SNB intervention; either by way of direct market intervention or rate reductions. My personal view is that the SNB will be reluctant to intervene in its currencies rapid appreciation. I have reached this conclusion for many factors; most significant of which are fears of reprisal from Trump and his tariff charges, but also for concerns closer to home.. I’m not sure if the SNB can afford the risks associated with inflating its balance sheet during a time in which the bank has very little room for interest rate reductions. As long as the markets lack direction from Trump, capital will flow into safe haven assets. The red lines are a historic falling wedge, formed back in 2011. The black are self explanatory from the time frame shown. The rapid depreciation in this pair isn’t (in my opinion) related to euro weakness, but rather the aforementioned. Given the structure of the market, rapid depreciation of the pair, divergence between price action and indicators and the fact that we’re floating around an important area of support, I feel a temporary reversal may be on the horizon. I’m expecting a test of all-time lows for this pair at circa 0.92. I currently have an active trade at 0.9232 and plan to scale in positions if the price weakens further with my ares of interest highlighted by the grey boxes.
Long
by jamesfrench73
2
Yen extends gains, BOJ Core CPI lower than expectedThe Japanese yen has rallied for a third straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.38, down 0.33% on the day. The yen has climbed 1.3% since Thursday, as the US dollar is under pressure against the major currencies. BoJ Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, remained at 2.2% for a third consecutive month in March, shy of the forecast of 2.4%. This follows Japan's National Core CPI, which rose 3.2% y/y, matching expectations but higher than the 3.0% gain in February. National CPI eased to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in February and below the market estimate of 3.7%. The inflation data comes a week before the BoJ's policy meeting next week. The central bank has signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates as wages and inflation have been rising. However, the risks to inflation and growth from US tariffs have muddied the rate outlook and the BoJ may decide to push off another hike until later in the year. The finance ministers of Japan and the US will meet later this week, as Tokyo looks to carve out some tariff exemptions. The BoJ is likely to sit tight and see if the talks lead to a breakthrough. The US is expected to bring up the exchange rate, as President Trump has accused Japan of deliberately keeping the yen weak in order to protect its export sector. There are no key releases out of the US today, but we'll hear from three FOMC members later today. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 10%, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in June.
by OANDA
Why Is the T Bond Heading Down?The downward pressure did not start with the Liberation Day tariffs on 2nd April. Based on the 30-year long-term bond price chart, the market peaked in 2020, then broke below a major support line—established since the 1980s—in 2022. Since that break, US bonds have been on a downward trajectory. So, what happened in 2020 and 2022 that set the bond market on shaky ground? Why is the recent tariff shock just a continuation of developments that began back then? And where are bond prices heading next? This goes beyond investors offloading its US Treasury holdings after 2nd April. U.S. Treasury Futures & Options Ticker: ZB Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by konhow
XAUUSD : $3,460Historically, Inflation Adjusted Gold Price, Adjusted to Today's Dollar reached a record high of around $3,460 in 1980 and a record low of $289 A moment ago, the price just hit that. What happens now is open to speculation. In the past, the gold price has declined significantly for long periods after approaching its previous inflation-adjusted peaks. This happened in 1980, 2011, and again in 2020. Let’s see what happens this time. I am in. Are you? Good luck.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by i_am_siew
Trade Idea: US30 Long ( MARKET )Technical Justification: Daily Chart: • Oversold Conditions: RSI is at 35.90, approaching oversold. • MACD is deeply negative (-905.428 / -831.781), signaling extended downside and a potential for a mean reversion bounce. • Price recently bounced sharply off a support area around 37,800–38,000, forming a possible bullish rejection wick. 15-Min Chart: • Bullish Divergence visible in RSI and MACD. • RSI rebounded from sub-30 to 52.10, signaling strengthening momentum. • MACD histogram has reduced in negativity, suggesting decreasing bearish pressure. 3-Min Chart: • Clear short-term uptrend forming after a strong intraday drop. • RSI 62.56 and MACD turning positive show bullish momentum building. • Price just reclaimed a key intraday level (~38139) with follow-through. ⸻ Fundamental Bias: Recent oversold market conditions, combined with potential short-term relief rally due to earnings optimism, Fed rate pause speculation, or geopolitical cooling, support a tactical long bias. ⸻ Trade Setup: • Entry (Buy): 38,150 • Above the minor resistance turned support zone and confirmation of bullish momentum. • Stop Loss (SL): 37,800 • Below the recent strong support zone from Daily and intraday. • Take Profit (TP): 38,750 • Just below the next major resistance zone on the 15-min/1H chart. FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Long
by KeN-WeNzEl
Has the Gold Rush Only Just Begun? A Bitcoin StoryIt is starting to look like we have entered a new trend on gold. Breaking out of the bullish trend, into a steeper one. The chart reminds me of the 1970's. Not the same but similar. 1970's US goes off the gold standard, money is now debt, USD becomes worthless when compared to gold (the time tested store of value that it is, of course) Money printer go brrrr... Now 2019. COVID, shut down the world, DWARF ALL OTHER LIQUIDITY INJECTION EVENTS COMBINED! I'm sensing a pattern. It has amazed me at what we have got away with so far. Considering the magnitude of what Covid and the following response was. I honestly thought it would be much worse, but I don't think we have seen the full impact yet. I think it may take a decade or more before we see the extent of the fallout. Heck, or this could just be another step in the wrong direction that just continues us down the road of financial repression. Devaluing our currencies until they look closer to the yen while a majority of the population ie: the working class has no clue. Populism will continue to rise as people try to find the common enemy to blame/ hate because of their pent up rage, due things completely out of their control. The worst part is that they don't even know the real reason why this is happening. Printing money (debt creation) is robbing from the future. Governments around the world have been stealing for decades. I only see one path ahead, and it's only going to get worse. The pot has been heating up, we are getting close to the boiling point. People are starting to realize how hot its getting. I see, in the not to distant future, the possibility of a melt up in nominal terms. Time will tell, we will see how well the world governments handle this. Maybe they can manage this better than I expect. But if they cannot and the pace of the bull markets pick up into a parabolic trend due to the miss-management of debt. What goes up must come down. Asset bubbles will form and burst, as they do. We are in a diabolical game of musical chairs. All paths lead to Bitcoin, a redistribution of wealth to those willing to learn.
TVC:GOLDLong
by merchtank19