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Fundamental Analysis

This is the reason why gold suddenly "changed its face"! 📣 Gold News Spot gold closed up $28.59, or 0.87%, at $3,302.71 per ounce on Monday. Gold prices fell to around $3,246 per ounce in early Asian trading, the lowest level since May 29. At 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong will hold a group meeting. Last Tuesday and Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended a congressional hearing and said that the Fed needs more time to observe whether tariffs make inflation rise higher before considering cutting interest rates. Powell said in his congressional testimony that he and most Fed officials expect inflation to start to pick up soon, and the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates before that. Powell said: "At present, we have good conditions to wait and further understand the possible development path of the economy before considering whether to adjust the policy stance." Yesterday, gold opened at $3381.6 and quickly fell back, reaching a low of $3248.8, then rebounded, rebounded in the early trading and touched $3270 and fell again, gold fell back, reaching a low of $3259.4, then gold did not continue to fall, and rebounded. Gold continued to rebound in the European and American markets, with the highest rebound in the US market reaching $3309.4, and finally closed at $3002.9 in the late trading. The monthly line closed with a long upper shadow line and a shooting star pattern. After such a pattern ended, today's gold rebounded high, and the upper resistance focused on the $3326 line. The rebound relied on the resistance below here to short, and the lower side looked at the $3295 line.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
Updated GBP/USD Trade Idea: New Setup If Price Reaches Key LevelAfter successfully executing the previous trade, I’m now monitoring GBP/USD for a fresh opportunity. If the price reaches this point, it aligns with a high-probability zone where market structure suggests a potential reaction. This area has historically acted as a decision point, and I’ll be watching closely for confirmation before entering the next position. This updated idea reflects a disciplined, price-action-based approach—focused on timing, structure, and market behavior. Whether you're a day trader or swing trader, this setup offers a clean risk-to-reward profile and fits well within an intraday strategy. 📈 Stay tuned for real-time updates, trade management insights, and detailed breakdowns. 💬 Follow for more GBP/USD strategies and actionable forex content.
Short
by TheSayyamGroup
1
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Tuesday, 1st July 2024)Bias: Bullish USD News(Red Folder): -Fed Chair Powell Speaks -ISM Manufacturing PMI -JOLTS Job Openings Notes: - Strong bullish momentum with strong daily rejection -Looking continuation buy to target level - Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe - Pivot point: 3270 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by HM_fxtrading
GBP/USD Tactical Shift: Long Closed, Short Bias ActivatedAfter successfully capturing the upside move on GBP/USD, price has now reached a key resistance zone where bullish momentum appears to be fading. The recent price action shows signs of exhaustion, with lower highs forming near the top and a noticeable slowdown in buying pressure. This shift in structure suggests a potential reversal opportunity. I'm now positioning for a short setup, anticipating a corrective move as sellers begin to step in. The risk is clearly defined above the recent highs, with downside targets aligned with previous reaction zones and intraday support levels. This transition from long to short reflects a dynamic response to evolving market conditions—focused, disciplined, and opportunity-driven.
Short
by TheSayyamGroup
GBP/USD – Macro Outlook & Why It’s a Top Pick This WeekMacro Fundamentals (ENDO): The UK macro backdrop remains inflationary, with solid growth data and resilient employment figures, supporting further GBP strength. Conversely, the US shows increasing deflationary signals and a softer macro pulse. COT Positioning: Institutional positioning is highly supportive, with a 74% long bias and strong “flip percentile.” This shows that “smart money” is increasingly positioned for further GBP/USD upside. Z-Score (Positioning Extremes): There are no extreme positioning imbalances in Z-Score for GBP or USD, suggesting the trend can continue without risk of a mean-reversion squeeze. EXO Signals (Risk/Reward, Bias, Interest Rate Outlook): Risk/reward metrics and bias signals favor the long side. The current risk-on sentiment in global markets also acts as a tailwind for GBP. FX Sentiment: The broader sentiment is risk-on, supporting currencies like GBP that tend to outperform in such environments. Summary & Trading Plan: Bias: Long GBP/USD Conviction: High (9.5/10, all key signals aligned) Ideal Holding Period: 1–3 weeks, as long as risk-on sentiment persists. Exit immediately if risk-off conditions emerge. Why This Pair? Because GBP/USD is the rare case where macro, institutional positioning, and market sentiment all support the same direction. This reduces “crosswinds” and increases the probability of a clean swing move. Watch for sustained risk-on flows and monitor for any macro or sentiment shifts.
Long
by Idealadvantage
EURJPY Readies Triangle Breakout w/ Elliot WaveOANDA:EURJPY has formed a Triangle Pattern with a Rising Support and Resistance Zone @ 169.5 - 169.7 area. After the False Breakout last week on Friday, we see Price falls back within the Pattern and finds strong Resistance from the zone. Now based from the High - to Low - to Lower High where price made a 50% - 61.8% Retracement, we can plot the Trend Based-Fib Tool that suggests with the change of trend ( Price printing a Lower High ) we can expect Lower Prices to come and potentially a Bearish Breakout to the pattern! First we will want to see where the next Lower Low will be ( currently @ 168.934 ) then wait for a Retracement to a favorable Fibonacci Level based from the Lower High to Lower Low. Fundamentally, the EUR will have CPI Flash Estimates on Tuesday, and multiple Services PMI on Thursday with ECB President Lagarde speaking Tuesday and Wednesday. This could add volatility!! Stay Tuned!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
KULR | High-Growth Channel Reversal – Targets +298% to +2,368%📍 Ticker: AMEX:KULR (KULR Technology Group, Inc.) 📆 Timeframe: 1W (Weekly) 📉 Price: $7.11 📈 Pattern: Rising parallel channel with bullish consolidation 🔍 Technical Setup: AMEX:KULR is respecting a clean ascending channel since early 2023 and is currently consolidating just above key support and the lower trendline, forming a launch base. 🔵 Key Resistance: $6.51 has flipped to support 📈 Price bounced from demand zone + holding mid-channel 📊 Volume profile supports accumulation at lows 🧠 Trade Plan & Dynamic Stop: 📥 Entry Zone: $6.80–$7.20 ⛔ Trailing Stop: A few % below the lower rising trendline → Trail it dynamically as the channel rises (e.g. ~4–7% buffer under trendline) 🎯 Targets & ROIC: 🎯 Target 1: $9.45 → Return: +31.3% 🎯 Target 2: $28.81 → Return: +305.1% 🎯 Target 3 (Channel Top): $168.12 → Return: +2,268% ⚠️ Key Technical Notes: Bullish retest of major breakout zone ($6.50) is holding Trendline structure is strong → perfect for trend-following strategy Trailing stop method protects gains without prematurely exiting Momentum expected to increase above $9.00 💬 Is KULR about to explode higher with the next growth leg? Watch for confirmation above $9.50 for breakout acceleration. #KULR #ChannelBreakout #SmallCapTech #ExplosiveSetup #TrendTrading #TargetTraders
AMEX:KULR
by TargetTraders
HELE | Historic Support Reclaim – Falling Wedge Breakout +113% 📍 Ticker: NASDAQ:HELE (Helen of Troy Ltd.) 📆 Timeframe: 1W (Weekly) 📉 Price: $28.10 📈 Pattern: Falling wedge + long-term horizontal support 🔍 Technical Setup: NASDAQ:HELE is rebounding from a major horizontal support zone that's been in place since 1998, and just broke above a multi-year falling wedge. This marks the start of what could be a powerful bullish reversal. 🔻 Breakdown structure from 2022 now being tested from below 🟡 Long-term horizontal support: ~$26.00–27.00 📈 Breakout potential with plenty of headroom into prior supply zones 🧠 Trade Plan & Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 📥 Entry Zone: $27.50–$28.50 ⛔ Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $25.00 (structure invalidation) 🎯 Target 1: $47.99 → 🔼 ROIC: +70.8% 🎯 Target 2: $60.06 → 🔼 ROIC: +113.8% ⚠️ Key Observations: Large-volume bottoming zone, breakout confirmed above falling trendline Price targets align with key prior support → resistance flip zones Multi-year trend reversal possible if price sustains above $31–32 Strong candidate for mid/long-term swing trades or LEAP call positioning 💬 Will Helen of Troy return to its former strength with a clean wedge breakout? Add HELE to your watchlist for 2025–2026 recovery potential. #HELE #FallingWedge #BreakoutTrade #LongTermSetup #ReversalPattern #TargetTraders
NASDAQ:HELELong
by TargetTraders
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFFTVC:GOLD Weekly Outlook: Spot ended Friday with bullish momentum, primarily driven by a Risk OFF sentiment in financial markets due to the Israel-Iran conflict, we also had fundamentals like CPI & PPI, US-China talk during the week which supported the bullish momentum. With escalations over the weekend, Israel has continued its attack on key military and nuclear facilities as well as Oil Infrastructure including Iran's South Pars gas field, these escalations could lead to more safe heaven inflows and a RISK OFF sentiment when market opens, which could point to higher targets of 3450-3500, above 3430, the next resistance is 3500, which with such instability can easily be broken through. However Iran has communicated to the US that if Israel stops their attacks, they will also consider the same, Trump has drawn a red line and said they will not get involved unless American Lives are directly targeted, this is in spite of Israel requesting them to join the war multiple times as Israel does not have the equipment and armaments to complete the job. Trump wants them to make a deal and become the hero that accomplished it, this remains to be seen , but if talks do happen, expect a Risk ON environment where a drop below 3450 will find support/ bounce at 3350, 3304 and below that opens the floor to 3275 and below. We also have Monetary Policy this week with Pappa Powell speaking mid week, I believe rates will stay the same, with cautious Fed Policy, No rate change in June with inflation fears due to Tariffs. As always risk management should be No 1, combined with Tech and Funda knowledge, Trade Safe, this week will be very interesting. The next down move on Gold will depend on whether we get de-escalation headlines and if so then RISK ON with money moving into Risk Assets like the Stock Markets
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JOHNDOUGHFX
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFF Part III missed to Publish my Idea here, I frequently share charts on my X handle for those who would like to follow, @JOHNDOUGHFX OK let get into it.. I will publish my entire Idea as I did from the start of the sells, it has been quiet accurate but with terrible choppy PA. FOMC likely a no move event. Rates to stay high due to tariff risks, Gold has been sentiment driven from last week-so Risk ON/OFF dominates. Israel-Iran talks ongoing → expect noise + fake escalations before a “Deal" Gold Order Flow zones at 3409 / 3450 Israel–Iran conflict = main wildcard. Expect sudden headline moves: escalation threats → quick spikes. But watch for fake outs followed by a “deal” headlines. That’s your Risk ON trigger. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Key levels for OANDA:XAUUSD : ⚠️ Liquidity trap zone: 3409–3415 ⚠️ Double top watch: 3448–3450 (psy level) Below 3400, we could fade toward: 🔻 3350 🔻 3330 🔻 3322 Plan both sides, don’t chase breakouts. For today's Analysis, Yesterday we have closed a bullish Doji Candle, signaling buyers, even though we broke below today, there was no selling pressure breaking the previous Daily low, and it has reacted close to As we have tapped the 39 Area, and pulled back, 43-45 if defended, will see price push higher into the high 65-70-75 extended Price Points before we can look for sells again. As Iran - US tensions are now extended for 2 weeks, I believe the typical news escalations will keep price action on the edge, at present the market is sentiment driven with Risk OFF, so plan your trades accordingly. Risk ON can come with any optimistic news, especially a "DEAL" Cheers and have a good last trading day!!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by JOHNDOUGHFX
2
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFF Part III 🚨 Trump announces a ceasefire This likely kills any chance for TVC:GOLD to retest higher sell zones. No more upside, just continuation plays for the bears, watch for momentum to pick up on the downside. More market optimism means RISK ON - Gold Bearish , DXY Bounce, Stocks Rally. Watching the markets today, It was like it wants optimism but the drama with escalations and uncertainty kept it where it was all day, I usually avoid Mondays, but now that this has been announced, we will see Market Optimistic and sentiment drive Gold Lower if there are no further escalations than what has already happened, which simply means the US or Iran would have to do more severe damage beyond what has already happened. We will be back to Fundamentals driving Gold if there is no other major event! #XAUUSD #Gold #Ceasefire #RiskOn #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Commodities
FX:XAUUSDShort
by JOHNDOUGHFX
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK ON/Gold Pullback - Continued Analysis Remains the same, Gold took a straight nose dive to 3250 during Asia Session, It has reacted at a psy number level, I do not see this as a strong buy since price has not moved away significantly, price remains in the range and so it tells a story that bulls are not in control yet, this is a just a healthy rebound before Gold goes bearish again. I will only change course if Gold breaks above 3330 and can sustain above those levels. The weekly closed below 3300 last week, breaking a Key Area and Number. 3250 has been tested multiple times, so at each test it will go weak. You can long Gold as scalp trades as per my analysis into the 3320 - 3330's or high 3330's before I expect to see the next drive lower! I do not trade Monday's and watch PA setup, those of you who caught the 3250 Psy level buys, Congratulations!!!, hold runners for some more heavy lifting.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by JOHNDOUGHFX
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK ON/Gold Pullback - Continued Drop Last week we killed TVC:GOLD with that almost 100$ drop!!, it was the perfect week for us as our forecasted analysis was accurate with Fundamentals and Technical combined which has always proved to be a very powerful combo when trading $Gold! This week I am expecting a continuation after a slight pullback, the pullback may or may not happen and it could be a straight drop, as always, the market is always right and all we can do is forecast and hop onto the train at the right price point, It will be a very news heavy week, we have NFP being declared early as July4th falls on the Friday and US Markets will be closed on Friday; Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday will have all the heavy news, ISM manufacturing and services PMIs , JOLTs data & ADP while the much-anticipated June NFP to finish the week Thursday. Check the chart attached and lets dive into the number and price points! I will send updates throughout the week as required, but either way I will always put my balls on the line and shoot out a forecast, If I am wrong I will learn and adapt accordingly, Markets are starting to get very optimistic and this week will again be an interesting one, I believe we are going to be seeing Risk ON environments with more optimism. Interested pullback area to continue lower + prices points: 1. 3295 2. 3301 3. 3310 4. if it moves above these levels, I will then look at my fib price points which are 3319-3330-3340 Take Profit levels & Potential Buy Areas : 1. 3250-3245 2. 3206-3195 3. 3155-3148 4. 3118-3125
FX:XAUUSDShort
by JOHNDOUGHFX