Altseason coming very soon...Alt seasone is coming very quickly. Never know when it hits.... Just wait and do Nothing :)
Fundamental Analysis
GOLD JUMPS ON ASIAN OPEN Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Early SurgeGOLD JUMPS ON ASIAN OPEN – Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Early Surge
Gold opened the week with a strong upside move during the Asian session, gaining nearly $30/oz in early trading. The bounce comes amid a weekend full of heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of increased central bank activity later this week.
🌍 Geopolitical Backdrop:
Rising concerns over Russia–Ukraine and India–Pakistan flare-ups.
No official confirmation from governments yet, but the market is clearly on edge.
Former US President Donald Trump is reportedly pushing for an earlier Fed rate cut.
All eyes now turn to the FOMC meeting this week, with potential policy shifts that could stir further volatility.
These developments have re-ignited safe-haven demand for gold, making this week's opening surge a logical reaction to global uncertainty.
🔍 Key Technical Zones
Resistance levels:
3278 – 3288 – 3301 – 3314
Support levels:
3250 – 3246 – 3238 – 3224 – 3204
🎯 Trade Setups – 06 May 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3246 – 3244
SL: 3240
TPs: 3250 → 3254 → 3258 → 3262 → 3266 → 3270 → 3280
Gold may continue its bullish run into the European session. A clean bounce from this support range could offer a solid risk/reward entry.
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3300 – 3302
SL: 3306
TPs: 3296 → 3292 → 3288 → 3284 → 3280 → 3270
If price rallies into this resistance cluster, look for signs of exhaustion for a potential intraday reversal trade.
⚠️ Weekly Outlook:
The FOMC meeting later this week will be key. A dovish tone may extend gold’s rally, while hawkish surprises could trigger sharp reversals.
Any new geopolitical flashpoints may also accelerate volatility — stay alert to global headlines.
Avoid FOMO — trade the reaction, not the prediction.
📌 Pro Tip: Let price come to your zone. Be patient, wait for confirmation, and manage SL/TP with discipline.
Nat Gas Right Shoulder Forming How high will nat gas go as it forms the right shoulder? No one truthfully knows but we can all speculate. It may not even form a right shoulder. As I write this, nat gas is hitting resistance of PWH(previous week high). A close above the PWH can set the stage for a R1 challenge on the monthly pivot time frame which is $4.126. Given the weak fundamental demand this seems unlikely. I doubt the commercials will sit idle and let price go there. It would be too good to pass up and they are too powerful. If and when this move fails, that sets the stage for $3.58 test(monthly pivot) and then a PWL of $3.05. This would complete the H&S neckline which means sub $2 could be possible. A lot of possibilities at this point so it is wait and see right now.
EURUSD | Head‑&‑Shoulders on the Brink – Bears Eye 1.1250📉 Trade Thesis
A textbook Head‑and‑Shoulders has completed on the 30‑min EURUSD chart. Price is now testing the rising neckline drawn from mid‑April swing lows. A clean close and retest beneath that trendline opens room toward the next demand shelf and the lower boundary of the broader ascending channel.
🎯 Execution Plan
Entry: wait for a decisive candle close below the neckline, then look to short on a minor pull‑back into that broken support.
Stop: just above the right‑shoulder high to keep risk tight.
Target: the measured‑move objective sits near the channel median/support cluster highlighted on the chart; scale out as price approaches that zone.
🧩 Confluence Factors
Momentum loss: RSI made a lower peak on the “head” versus the prior thrust, signalling fading upside energy.
Event risk: upcoming NFP/ISM releases may fuel USD volatility, providing the catalyst for a break.
Structure: the right shoulder’s supply shelf has capped every rally since late April, reinforcing bearish pressure.
⚠️ Risk Management
Macro data can produce whipsaws—size positions accordingly and stick to the plan. Move stops to breakeven once price pushes convincingly away from the neckline.
For educational purposes only. Trade your own strategy & manage risk.
HolderStat | Smart money is interested in BNB🚀 Wallet Snapshot:
● Recent moves: withdrew 26.62 BNB from Binance → Bitget & UniversalRouter; swapped 122.78 K KILO via PancakeSwap
● Top holdings: 17.962 CRYPTOCAP:ETH | 13.683 CRYPTOCAP:BNB | 122.781 K BYBIT:KILOUSDT
● Performance: $250 K+ net profit
Savvy rotation perfectly timed for this mark-up phase! 🔥
MELI at Risk from Momentum Shift and High ValuationMELI has gained over 35% since the April dip, but momentum has been fading since September. The slowdown has become increasingly visible, and last week's high may remain the top for some time unless Wednesday’s earnings report surprises the market on the upside.
The consensus estimate for MELI’s revenue is $5,497.05 million, representing a 26.86% year-over-year increase but a 9.27% decline quarter-over-quarter. MELI is currently trading at a forward P/E of 41.9x, which is significantly higher than the 19.8x average of comparable companies. Its geographic advantage over U.S.-based peers gave MELI an edge in April, but without strong earnings to support the high valuation, the stock could become vulnerable.
Over the past five years, MELI averaged 56.2% annual sales growth. That figure is expected to fall to an average of 22.1% over the next three years, which remains solid but signals a clear deceleration.
MELI could move more than 7% on earnings day, depending on the report. If the stock falls below 2,000, it may present a buying opportunity. However, the loss of momentum is usually a negative signal for sustaining trends, so the risk of buying the dip is higher than before.
Took a trade on goldTrading the current market action and a little bit of fundamentals i was able to capitalize on this xauusd trade.Took similar trades on gbpusd and results were the same
GBPJPY SellMacro Analysis
BoE is currently cutting the rates(even if keep the rates now, won't affect the direction of the pair) and BOJ has kept the rates but is expected to raise rates due to inflationary pressures.
Technical Analysis
Expect the pair to sweep the 15min liquidity as shown , as we have already tapped into the 4hr order block. We expect a strong fall to form new low.
Overall , we bearish.
ES Futures at a Crossroads: Fed Steady, Market ReadyCME_MINI:ES1!
Recent Market Performance
ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th low.
Since forming that low, ES Futures have rebounded impressively—rallying 18.48% into the May 2nd high, retracing well over 50% of the losses. Notably, price action has closely respected Fibonacci retracement levels, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Macro Fundamentals
There are several macroeconomic considerations at play:
• Quarterly GDP data appears skewed due to front-loaded imports, evident in the January and February import numbers.
• This week’s March trade balance, imports, and exports data for both the U.S. and China will be crucial. These figures will shed light on how escalating tariff tensions have influenced Q1 business activity.
• The key event this week is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and FOMC press conference. Of particular interest will be how the Fed’s risk outlook has evolved in light of Trade War 2.0, along with updates to growth and inflation forecasts.
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, there are increasing calls from President Trump to cut rates. Although recent soft data has shown signs of deterioration, this has not yet translated into hard data. In fact, April’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report beat expectations, underscoring continued economic resilience.
Key Question: What Comes Next?
Will ES Futures continue to trend higher, reverse lower, or consolidate?
Key Technical Levels
• mCVAL: 5635
• Upper Neutral Zone : 5620 – 5585
• March 2025 Low: 5533.75
• Lower Neutral Zone : 5171.75 – 5150.75
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (2025 High to Low)
• 2025 High: 6218.50
• 0.786 Retracement: 5921.75
• 0.618 Retracement: 5688.75
• 0.5 Level (Mid-Range): 5525.25
• 2025 Low: 4832
Our View
We believe downside risks are currently minimized, barring a new market-moving development—such as a disruptive social media post. Q1 earnings have broadly reflected strength, reducing the probability of further downside in the near term.
Given the current backdrop:
• Positive news could act as a catalyst for higher prices.
• In the absence of significant newsflow, we expect consolidation, followed by a potential resumption of the upward trend.
Scenario 1
A pullback to either the blue support zone near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement confluence, or a deeper pullback towards the confluence of the 2025 mid-range and March 2025 lows, followed by a continuation higher.
Scenario 2
Seasonality supports consolidation. Historical index behavior at this time of year further aligns with the potential for sideways movement before the next leg higher.
EURJPYMacro Economic Analysis / Fundamental Analysis
The ECB has kept the rates while also BOJ kept the rates at the moment. In the short term we expect the ECB to cut the rates whilst the BOJ to raise the rate, probably in the next meeting. So in overall, we expect the JPY to strengthen against the EURO.
Technical Analysis
We expect a liquidity sweep of the previous week candle, then a sharp fall of the EURJPY.
EURCAD SHORTInitiating a short on EUR/CAD as risk sentiment deteriorates and technicals point to a downside move. The pair has failed to break above and is forming a potential lower high, with momentum indicators showing bearish divergence. A break below adds confirmation to the
short setup.
Entry:
Stop Loss:
Take Profit:
Risk/Reward Ratio:
Timeframe:
XAUUSD- 1H UpdateChart Description – XAUUSD 1H (Gold Spot vs. USD)
This is a multi-scenario Smart Money Concept (SMC)-based projection chart for Gold (XAUUSD), focusing on potential bullish retracements and major bearish continuations, incorporating Buy Zones, Sell Zones, and Change of Character (CHOCH) areas.
🔍 Key Components:
🟣 Sell Zones
Two sell zones are identified, with the highest near the All-Time High (ATH) around the $3,500 mark.
These are areas of expected bearish reaction if price retraces upward after a low.
🟢 Buy Zones
Located between $3,200 – $3,160 and another deeper one near $2,960, where potential bullish reactions may occur.
🔵 CHOCH - 4H
Marked in red around $3,260 area, indicating a 4-hour Change of Character, suggesting a potential shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
🔸 Key Price Levels
$3,120: Historical support/resistance.
$2,956.20: Major swing low and key demand zone.
📊 Projected Market Path (Colored Waves)
🔹 Blue Path (Bullish Retracement Scenario)
Price is expected to retrace into a sell zone around $3,400–$3,460 after testing the current demand.
From there, a major sell-off is anticipated.
🔷 Cyan Path (Bearish Continuation)
Following the retracement, the market is projected to break below the recent low and head toward lower buy zones, potentially near the $3,120 and $2,960 regions.
Shows lower-high and lower-low formation, consistent with a bearish trend.
🧠 Market Sentiment
This chart suggests a bearish outlook for Gold unless a structural shift invalidates the CHOCH zone and supply levels. The chart highlights the importance of:
Waiting for confirmation in the supply zones before shorting.
Considering buy opportunities only in valid buy zones with bullish reaction confirmation.
Netweb-a breakout stock to watchNetweb has recorded stellar quarterly results- double digit earnings and revenue growth YoY. But stock has not performed since market was unfavorable and it has stored pent up energy of strong earnings backing. Now stock has reached a resistance zone on daily chart that too with a humungous volume. Today its quarterly earnings were announced and yet again stock has delivered very good results. It's a good breakout stock to watch.
Eth capitulation to dominationEthereum Investment Thesis: A Programmable Settlement Layer for a Decentralized Financial Future
Ethereum stands at the intersection of programmable money, digital settlement infrastructure, and financial innovation. As the second-largest blockchain by market capitalization, it is not merely a platform for decentralized applications—it is evolving into the base layer for a new global financial internet. Its value proposition rests on four structural pillars: sound monetary mechanics, scalable architecture, an expanding Layer 2 (L2) ecosystem, and dominance in developer and capital gravity.
Ethereum’s transformation from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake in 2022 was more than a sustainability milestone. It fundamentally altered the asset’s economic profile. The shift slashed issuance by over 90%, while Ethereum’s unique “EIP-1559” fee burn mechanism began removing ETH from circulation with every transaction. This combination has resulted in a low-inflation—or in some market phases, deflationary—monetary system. ETH now behaves similarly to traditional "hard money" assets like gold or Bitcoin, yet offers more utility as the fuel for a vast programmable ecosystem.
Ethereum’s roadmap is methodical and long-term focused, reflecting a credible commitment to scalability and decentralization. The March 2024 Dencun upgrade introduced “blob” transactions that drastically reduced the cost of L2 data posting, enhancing user affordability across rollups. Future upgrades, particularly Pectra (expected mid-2025), will optimize validator operations and prepare the network for more advanced cryptographic improvements like Verkle trees. These upgrades align with Ethereum’s modular design philosophy: execution happens on L2s, while security and settlement remain on Ethereum’s base layer.
The Layer 2 ecosystem is a central piece of Ethereum’s long-term strategy. Rollups like Arbitrum, Optimism, Base (by Coinbase), and zkSync handle millions of daily transactions, offering high throughput and low latency while inheriting Ethereum’s security guarantees. This design mirrors the structure of the internet itself—modular, resilient, and scalable. As these L2s commoditize blockspace, Ethereum captures value through data availability fees, settlement costs, and increasingly, from restaking services that allow ETH to secure multiple protocols simultaneously.
In comparison to Bitcoin, Ethereum provides greater expressiveness and economic utility. While Bitcoin is optimized as a non-sovereign store of value, Ethereum combines that quality with the ability to run complex financial instruments, autonomous organizations, and digital identity layers. Solana, on the other hand, prioritizes raw throughput at the expense of some decentralization trade-offs. While Solana’s network architecture allows for high-frequency applications and fast consumer experiences, it has experienced multiple outages and is secured by a comparatively smaller validator set and market cap. Ethereum’s resilience, economic security, and widespread adoption give it a stronger foundation for long-term institutional confidence.
The global macroeconomic backdrop further enhances Ethereum’s relevance. Major economies including the United States, the European Union, and China are entrenched in structurally expansionary fiscal and monetary positions. The U.S. continues to run deficits near or above 6% of GDP, while interest rate normalization is constrained by political and economic pressures. These conditions erode confidence in fiat currencies and drive demand for alternative monetary instruments and decentralized financial infrastructure.
Ethereum serves as a compelling hedge against this backdrop. Its deflationary potential and capped monetary issuance mirror qualities traditionally attributed to gold or Bitcoin, yet its programmable nature opens new frontiers. Stablecoins—digital representations of dollars—have become Ethereum’s killer app, with annual settlement volumes surpassing Visa. Crucially, every transaction paid in ETH, regardless of whether it involves native assets or synthetic dollars, contributes to the scarcity of ETH through fee burns. Thus, demand for dollar-denominated assets paradoxically increases the value of ETH.
Beyond stablecoins, Ethereum is at the forefront of real-world asset tokenization. Institutions like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are deploying tokenized money market funds and Treasury products directly onto Ethereum or Ethereum-compatible chains. This allows global investors to access yield-bearing instruments without intermediaries or banking infrastructure, especially valuable in capital-controlled or inflation-prone economies. Ethereum, therefore, is not just a blockchain—it is the settlement rail for a parallel, internet-native financial system.
The future value of ETH is tied not only to its use as a monetary asset but also to its role in securing and settling trillions in financial activity. As L2s grow, as institutions tokenize assets, and as more economic primitives move on-chain, ETH accrues utility, security demand, and monetary premium. Ethereum becomes a synthetic sovereign infrastructure: one without borders, central banks, or inflationary mandates.
That said, risks remain. Regulatory uncertainties—particularly in the U.S.—could impact staking services or the classification of ETH. Execution risk exists with Ethereum’s ambitious technical roadmap, and competition from alternative Layer 1s or modular data availability solutions may capture segments of demand. Additionally, innovations like restaking introduce new systemic risks if not carefully governed. But Ethereum’s transparent governance, broad contributor base, and deep liquidity give it a resilient edge.
In conclusion, Ethereum represents a generational investment opportunity: a digitally native, programmable, and deflationary monetary system embedded into a decentralized global financial internet. For those seeking an asymmetric hedge against fiat debasement, combined with venture-like upside on the transformation of fintech, Ethereum remains one of the most compelling assets in the digital age.
Is the CGPT Retest a Setup-Are You Ready for It?Yello, Paradisers! Have you been watching CGPT closely? Because what we’re seeing now could be a textbook setup to liquidate early longs before a brutal downward move. This is the exact type of trap that punishes undisciplined traders and rewards those who wait.
💎After weeks of bullish momentum with clean higher highs and higher lows, #CGPTUSDT has now printed a clear change of character (CHoCH). The previous low was taken out, and now price has pulled back right into a high-probability resistance zone. This zone, between $0.115 and $0.118, aligns perfectly with a broken ascending trendline adding confluence that strengthens our bearish bias. Traders who aren't careful might interpret this retest as a sign of strength, but this could just be the market setting up its next liquidation wave.
💎Adding even more weight to this bearish thesis is the fact that #CGPT is currently trading below its 50 EMA on the 4H timeframe, showing clear weakness and confirming that the short-term momentum has already shifted in favor of sellers. This acts as dynamic resistance and makes it even harder for price to reclaim bullish control without a significant effort from buyers.
💎The structure is showing all signs of a classic trap. Price action is hesitant at resistance, and with momentum waning, a rejection from this level could spark a swift move down toward $0.09188, our first support zone. But that may not be the end of it. If selling accelerates, we are eyeing the $0.07133 area as a potential major demand zoneour strong support and where true smart money will likely accumulate. However, we must always remain tactical. If CGPTUSDT flips above $0.12526, this bearish scenario is invalidated and we would reassess for possible bullish continuation.
Discipline, patience, robust strategies, and trading tactics are the only ways you can make it long-term in this market.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
My NQ Long Idea 5/5/2025Been a while but I haven't been posting ideas because I have been scalping and doing smaller time frame trades. I think we have NQ at a nice price level where we might see a bull run soon with the market sentiment slowly "thawing" on the idea of "risk-off" sentiment to "risk-on" sentiment and environment with more uncertainties clearing out of the market scenes.
We have US trying to negotiate deals with many countries including China which is very challenging and we can never know if it will be achieved or not. However, from an economic point of view we can agree that the US economy is in the Neutral-bullish. We have a very bullish price action in the past week or so. We also have healthy economic numbers but it is still unclear until Wednesday.
On Wednesday the FED will speak on this matter and give us some clarity on whether it is a Risk-on or Risk-off environment. Anything will happen but I can see the "Gap" getting filled on FED day due to the SPIKE that will be delivered to us.
Currently Edgefinder tool is giving us 8 for NQ with only the GDP and sPMI scores in the negative. However the net score is bullish and on the positive.
I think 1 of those two ideas will be played out sooner or later anything can happen but from a technical view I would like to see the price reaching the 50% FIB and then take off from there.
It is subjective though and everything in trading is subjective including what I do and say.
S&P 500 Tests Key Zone Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has reached the 5,700–5,800 zone after a nearly 18% rally in just half a month. This zone could determine whether the rally marks the end of the bearish trend or if more pain lies ahead for the stock market.
The 200-day simple moving average, several previous horizontal support levels, and the most recent top all converge in this area. The upward move has been driven by correction dynamics, optimism around potential trade deals, signs of de-escalation with China, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
This week, the FOMC may either temper those optimistic rate cut expectations or hint at a more dovish tone. In either case, some profit-taking may occur ahead of the meeting, and the 5,700–5,800 zone is a strong candidate for that to happen.
XRP: Critical Levels AheadXRP: Critical Levels Ahead
XRP is nearing confirmation of a bearish pattern on the 4-hour time frame. If the price moves below the neckline, the likelihood of a further decline increases.
The first major target zone is 2.040, which presents a key challenge. A break below this level is crucial for further downside movement; otherwise, the price may take a different path.
If XRP falls through 2.040, selling pressure could strengthen, increasing the chances of a deeper decline towards 1.930 and 1.780, as indicated on the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 5 - 9 MayMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Fed and BoE Rate Decisions, Canada Jobs, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
— Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
— BoE’s Interest Rate Decision
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XAUUSD - Gold Trend Before FOMC!Gold is trading above its EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading on its uptrend line. A continued upward move in gold will put it in the supply zone, where it is possible to look for short positions. A downward correction in gold will also open up long positions.
Gold traders endured another turbulent week, marked by the second consecutive decline in prices—once again underscoring the market’s acute sensitivity to economic news and developments.
Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, offered a cautiously humorous take on the situation by likening it to the Peggy Lee song that asks, “Is that all there is?” He pointed out that gold has pulled back by over 7% from its recent high in less than two weeks.Although this correction is notable, it hasn’t been deep enough to flush out all short-term traders or weak-handed investors from the market.
Day added that rising fears of a U.S. recession—which typically exert early downward pressure on gold—alongside the possibility of easing U.S.-China trade tensions, may limit investment demand for gold in the short term. Concluding his comments, he maintained a cautious stance, saying that further downside remains likely and that his outlook for the coming week is bearish.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump, in a new interview with NBC, addressed several key economic and political issues. He stated that if necessary, the deadline for selling TikTok would be extended, and some tariffs on Chinese goods might become permanent. Nevertheless, he indicated that he is also considering reducing certain tariffs in the future.
Trump emphasized that small businesses do not require additional assistance and that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. He confirmed that Jerome Powell will remain Fed Chair through the end of his term in 2026. He also mentioned potential successors for his own position, naming Vance and Rubio as possibilities.
After a week dominated by employment data, the upcoming week will be entirely focused on monetary policy. The centerpiece will be the May FOMC meeting, the Fed’s rate decision, and Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. While markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, Powell’s official remarks and answers to press questions—especially following his sharp tone earlier in April—will be under close scrutiny.
It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will leave its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as policymakers assess how President Trump’s tariffs gradually impact various sectors of the economy. Markets are currently pricing in a potential rate cut starting in July. The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low inflation and high employment, and it may face a dilemma if tariffs negatively affect both indicators, as many economists now warn.
Immediately following the Fed meeting, senior policymakers including Barr, Kugler, Waller, and Cook will travel to Iceland to attend the Reykjavik Economic Conference. On Friday, they will participate in panels discussing artificial intelligence, labor market trends, and monetary research—topics that could offer insights into the Fed’s long-term policy direction.
Simultaneously, traders are also awaiting two key reports: the ISM Services Index for May, due today, and weekly jobless claims figures set for release on Thursday. Together, these reports will help complete the picture of the U.S. economy as critical monetary policy decisions approach.
US Stocks Pare Back All Tariff-Fueled Losses. Are We So Back?Remember “Liberation Day”? The one that felt more like Liquidation Day ? When markets tanked, tickers turned red, and you were afraid to check the markets on the next day? Well, turns out the rumors of the market’s demise were — once again — greatly exaggerated.
If the average recession 10 years ago lasted two years, this year’s recession was approximately 37 minutes (more or less, depending on the day).
Just a month ago, the S&P 500 SP:SPX started crumbling to the point it entered into correction territory (and then got out of correction territory ).
Long story short, it took the punches, went down 15%, stood back up, and is now throwing jabs with a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004, when iPods were still a thing and Facebook was just for Harvard students.
So… are we back? Like, really back? Let’s dig in.
💰 Trillions Lost, Trillions Found
On April 2, President Donald Trump dropped the hammer — or rather, the online post — unveiling his “reciprocal tariffs,” which, in true Trumpian fashion, sounded equal parts policy and promo PR.
Markets didn’t take it well. Global stocks collectively threw a tantrum. The S&P 500 dropped like it had a brick in its pocket . Financials cratered, energy took a gut punch, and tech? See for yourself — we don't want to talk about it .
But now? The dip buyers are shopping up, scooping up, snapping up everything from banks to oil stocks to beleaguered megacaps. Suddenly, all those stock discounts look like missed opportunities, and the cash-on-the-sidelines traders are jumping in.
👌 Jobs Data: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
Friday was a good day. Why? Because April’s nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP report came in at 177,000 jobs — not too strong to trigger Fed-tightening fears, not too weak to imply economic decay. It was the goldilocks print.
The number was a drop from March’s revised 185,000, but what mattered was the beat: economists had pencilled in just 135,000. Markets took that as permission to throw a party.
The S&P 500 jumped 1.5%, reclaiming the level it had before Trump’s tariff tirade and putting an emphatic end to the selloff. Nine green days in a row? That’s a bull flex Wall Street hasn’t seen in two decades.
💥 Truth Social Posts That Move Markets
Not to be left out of the celebration, Trump hopped onto Truth Social with his usual caps lock enthusiasm:
“THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!”
Sounds familiar?
Still, even without a rate cut (for now), the market got what it wanted: signs that the US labor market isn’t collapsing, trade talks might be back on the table, and the economy hasn’t lost its way.
😌 A Global Sigh of Relief
While the US led the rally, global markets also joined the rebound chorus. China’s commerce ministry chimed in Friday, saying Washington had expressed a “desire to engage in discussions.” In market-speak, that translates to: "Everyone calm down — we might not blow this up after all."
It doesn’t take much to change sentiment. A tweet here, a headline there, a hint of diplomatic progress — suddenly risk appetite returns and everyone forgets they were panic-selling just three weeks ago.
But don’t go lining up the espresso martinis just yet — not everything is fully recovered. The US dollar, for example, remains nearly 4% below its pre-tariff-announcement level.
🤔 We Are So… Back?
So are we officially back? Short answer — “put the word out there that we back up” for now . Markets are up, volatility is down, and everyone’s pretending they didn’t sell the dip at the worst possible time.
But — and you knew there’d be a “but” — caution still applies. Trade tensions aren’t over. The next Trump post could shake things again. The Fed hasn’t made its next move (that’s coming this Wednesday). And geopolitics remains a powder keg.
Still, what this rebound tells us is clear: the market has resilience. Maybe not logic. Maybe not grace. But resilience? Yes.
It also reminds us that trying to time news-driven selloffs is a dangerous game. Often, the best trades happen when fear peaks and everyone else is running for the hills.
👉 Final Thoughts: Watch the Calendar, Not the Chaos
The key takeaway from this tariff-to-rally rollercoaster? Markets can move fast — but they can also recover faster. If you panicked, you probably sold low. If you stayed focused, checked the earnings calendar , and remembered that market narratives shift like wind direction, you're probably doing well right now.
We’re so back — for now. But stay sharp. This market may have nine lives, but it also has the attention span of a toddler.
Your move : Did you ride the dip? Buy the bounce? Or just mute the chaos and sip your coffee? Drop your best “Liberation Day to Redemption Rally” trade below.
ON | Long Setup | Bullish Recovery Flow | (May 2025)ON | Long Setup | Breakout from Downtrend Channel + Bullish Recovery Flow | (May 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
ON Semiconductor (ON) is breaking out of its long-term downtrend channel, showing strong price action and renewed momentum. A recovery seems to be gaining speed, and May could be a key turning point.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: Around current levels (post-breakout zone)
Stop Loss: $28 (providing extra room for potential liquidation wicks)
TP1: $56
TP2: $71
TP3: $76
TP4: $83
3️⃣ Key Notes:
The stock just broke out of its declining channel and is now testing the 50-day moving average — a common resistance, but price strength and flow suggest we might push through. We’re also sitting on a major support zone that mirrors the May 2021 level, which historically provided a strong bounce.
Here are the fundamentals:
Revenue: SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:7B
Net Income: $1.5B
Tangible Book Value: ~$16.50
EPS: $3.67
Free Cash Flow: $1.2B
Cash on Hand: $2.6B
Debt: $3.6B
Beta: 1.7 (fairly volatile)
The dividend yield is currently unknown, but earnings are projected to grow steadily, with strong acceleration expected heading into 2028. This setup offers a mix of technical breakout and long-term growth expectations.
4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note:
This idea will be monitored closely throughout May. If the bullish structure holds, we could see multiple levels get hit. I’ll provide updates if price action confirms further strength.
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Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
#GBPAUD: +245 From Previous Analysis, 880+ Total Pips TargetIn our previous analysis, we clearly indicated our entry point, and the price followed suit, reversing straight and currently up 245+ in positive. Going forward, we expect a straight, clean move of 800+ points. If you missed this entry, there will be a correction within the next 4 hours. Just analyse the pinpoint and enter accordingly with proper risk management.
Good luck and trade safely!
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