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Fundamental Analysis

SPX AND WHAT WE STAND TO GAIN OR LOSE!⚡ Hey hey, hope all is well. Don't have too much time right now so just want to get a quick idea out, we'll keep this short and concise, thank you. ⚡ First thing's first, we're gonna take a quick Big picture look at our SP:SPX chart for today and we can take a look back on our ascending channel which helped propel us for most of 2024 into 2025 before we finally exited that channel in February and lost our 200 EMA. ⚡ The 200 EMA was our main tool for the last year or so, keeping above that gave traders and investors the confidence to keep things pushing and essentially kept the market on this wave which is simply rode up, everyone was making money and that money was going back into more investments further propelling things before we saw our SP:SPX hit an all time high in February at $6,200. ⚡ So we had the 200 EMA below us, we had much of the market making money, and with trump entering office, much of the market was understandably optimistic and things we're continuing pretty strong January through into February. We then had trump make his remarks on a possible recession and we started getting talks on tariffs which understandably prompted much of the market and market makers to take profits and we sort of got this reversal which I spoke more on in a previous idea which I'll link below for reference: ⚡ Before I continue and as a disclosure, none of this is meant to be taken in a political stance or with any bias, like I said, we're simply looking at the facts and the technical, that's all that matters. ⚡ To continue on, as the referenced idea represents, once that news hit the market sentiment shifted and we can see the descending channel that ensued with that which also prompted us to lose our 200 EMA, something we haven't seen happen since 2023 on the daily chart which puts us in a precarious position. ⚡ The market's basically lost two advantages. The last year or so that 200 EMA kept below the chart never converging which helped bulls alongside our ascending channel which was a significant component in this push for the all-time-high (ATH). So we 've basically lost both of those advantages which is what helped bulls climb so much ground the last year or so. ⚡ We already know the 200 EMA crossover is important but now it'll likely create a broader impact now that we have no channel to look. Instead, we'll likely see a number of traders more than likely looking out for those Bullish and Bearish crossover's for making plays which is already happening. ⚡ If we look at the beginning of April for example where we had that first 200 EMA crossover we can see just how dramatic the sell-off was, investors just weren't sure how far things we're going to go and once we got another crossover and regained that 200 EMA the buy-in action, volume was also dramatic signifying a market that's being led by sentiment rather than technical which again was the main driver for us the last year or so. ⚡ That being said technical of course is still playing a role, but we're seeing sentiment drive price action and being taken into account a lot more the last few weeks, especially with everything going on with Trump and the tariff war we had which put much of the market and investors on edge trying to figure out whether or not things we're looking optimistic or not for the market before China and the US we're able to ultimately come to an agreement helping put many minds at ease. ⚡ Next few weeks I'll be watching that 200 EMA to see if we get a bearish crossover or if we can avoid that and regain ground to which I'll be looking to my Fib. chart for as referenced below: ⚡ Next is a descending channel I've added to the daily chart which hopefully doesn't come into play again. ⚡ Can already see how that descending channel impacted us the second tiem around in April so main thing is that we avoid losing that 200 EMA again, and we keep away from that descending channel else we'll more than likely get dragged down further if we we're to reenter that channel much like we saw happen with the sell-off in April. ⚡ Have to run but just wanted to give quick technical look at our big picture idea here for the $SP:SPX. Current goal is to see a retest of $5,900 and avoid another convergence with that 200 EMA on the daily else we risk losing our footing and reversing. ⚡ As always, thanks so much for all the support, appreciate you all and wishing all the best till next. Don't just make it a good day, make it a great one. Best regards, ~ Rock'
SP:SPX
by Rocksorgate
1
GOLD GOLD ,in other to add more buy position we need a break above 3364 double confluence sell zone. the ascending trendline helped keep price in a bullish direction and supported 3323-3326 demand floor to where we are trading at 3341 as at time of reporting and the next impulse should embrace 3364 zone. break and close more buy confirmation. on the sell side a breakout from the demand ascending trendline will kiss 3304-3308 and break below will attract more sell position.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
Litecoin-LTCUSD Analysis-Issue 85 (Free Access)The analyst believes that the price of Litecoin will decrease within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend. ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Short
by MoonriseTA
1
LONG BTC🧠 Trade Concept Summary – BTC/USDT LONG You're planning a long entry on pullback to the high-volume demand zone (105.8k – 106k), targeting a breakout toward previous highs. ✅ Key Confirmations 1. Volume Profile (Key Volume Zone) Strongest POC volume base lies in the 105.8–106.0k zone. This level marks a major accumulation breakout, acting as institutional support. Price returning here is likely a retest = buy opportunity. 2. Market Structure D1: Still bullish – series of higher highs / higher lows. M15/H1: After a pullback, price is forming higher lows, confirming trend continuation. 3. RSI Confirmation RSI (D1) around 69 → Overbought but not diverging, meaning momentum remains strong. RSI (M15) has cooled down (~40s), giving room for bounce once price hits demand.
Long
by tienbmdev97
2
Gold Pullback as Expected, Range Trading ContinuesAs I clearly stated last Friday, key resistances are located at 3366 and the stronger zone between 3376–3391. On Friday, the price peaked near 3366 without touching the second resistance band, followed by a pullback — a natural result of recent buying pressure being released and previous trapped positions being closed out. 🎯 Congratulations to those who carefully followed and executed the strategy — you should have captured solid profits from this retracement! 🔍 Current Technical Outlook: ✅ A wave of selling has already been absorbed. Now we watch: Support strength — if key levels hold, scalping on dips remains valid; Rebound momentum — short-term indicators favor a bounce, though medium-term structures are still being repaired; Focus zone: 3355–3357 is a newly created gap resistance, critical for today’s action; Previously broken supports (3346–3338 and 3324–3318) now serve as resistance and should be watched during any upside attempt. 📈 Trading Strategy: Today’s price range is relatively contained — stick to selling near resistance, buying near support. If there are any major changes or new developments, I’ll update everyone in time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Arthur3017
Updated analysis on bitcoinLets watch BITCOIN go to the MOON🤑 Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. Every 12-18 months we see a MASSIVE bull run. We call this halving I predict Bitcoin can reach $150K by late 2025 based on those cycle trends Adam back believes Bitcoin will reach 500K-$1M in this cycle. He gets this from high institutional demand. So don’t set take profits, haha. With this all time high of almost 112k, don’t expect a drop this time. We will likely soar above 150k soon, be ready 🤑 Good luck traders! (also the chart speaks for itself)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SethGoforth
Gold fluctuates at high levels, long and short profit ideas 📌 Driving events On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that plans to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union would be postponed until July 9, easing concerns about an imminent escalation in trade hostilities. This development reduced immediate risk aversion in the market, putting pressure on gold prices. Nevertheless, investors' attention now turns to the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, which may further clarify the Fed's monetary policy outlook. At the same time, market participants will continue to pay attention to trade negotiations between the United States and Japan and other major economies. Any new tensions or setbacks in these negotiations could quickly restore demand for gold as a protective hedge. 📊Comment Analysis Gold prices fell slightly after the official announcement of the tariff extension and continued to climb 💰Strategy Package 🔥Selling area: 3388-3390 SL 3395 TP1: $3376 TP2: $3363 TP3: $3350 🔥Buying area: $3301-$3299 SL $3294 TP1: $3312 TP2: $3325 TP3: $3338 ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the capital account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
1
Fair Value Gap (FVG) in Crypto: The Complete Guide🔸Introduction: In financial markets in general—and the crypto market in particular—understanding market liquidity and imbalance zones is essential for building successful trading strategies. One of the most prominent modern price analysis concepts, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) framework, is the Fair Value Gap (FVG). This refers to a price imbalance between buyers and sellers. 🔸What is the Fair Value Gap (FVG)? A Fair Value Gap is an area on the price chart that shows an imbalance between supply and demand. It occurs when the price moves rapidly in one direction without being fairly traded within a balanced price range. This usually happens due to the entry of large players or “smart money,” creating a gap between three consecutive candlesticks on the chart. Classic Bullish FVG Setup: Candle 1: A bearish or neutral candle. Candle 2: A strong bullish candle (usually large). Candle 3: A bullish or neutral candle. 🔸Where is the Gap? The gap lies between the high of candle 1 and the low of candle 3. If candle 3 does not touch the high of candle 1, an unfilled price gap (FVG) is present. 🔸How is FVG Used in Market Analysis? Traders use Fair Value Gaps as potential areas for: Entering trades when the price returns to retest the gap. Identifying zones of institutional interest. Setting potential targets for price movement. 🔸Common Scenario: If a strong bullish candle creates a Fair Value Gap, the price often returns later to retest that gap before continuing its upward movement. The gap can be considered "delayed demand" or "delayed supply". 🔸🔸Types of FVG:🔸🔸 🔸Bullish FVG: Indicates strong buying pressure. The price is expected to return to the gap, then bounce upwards. 🔸Bearish FVG: Indicates strong selling pressure. The price is expected to return to the gap, then continue downward. 🔸Relationship Between FVG and Liquidity: Fair Value Gaps are often linked to untapped liquidity zones, where buy or sell orders have not yet been fulfilled. When the price returns to these areas: Institutional orders are activated. The price is pushed again in the primary direction. 🔸How to Trade Using FVG (Simple Entry Plan): Steps: Identify the overall trend (bullish or bearish). Observe the formation of an FVG in the same direction. Wait for the price to return and test the gap. Look for entry confirmation (like a reversal candle or a supporting indicator). Set your stop loss below or above the gap. Take profit at a previous structure level or the next FVG. 🔸🔸Real-World Examples (Simplified):🔸🔸 🔸Bullish Example: A strong bullish candle appears on BTC/USD. A gap forms between $74K and $80K. The price rises to $108K, then returns to 74K$ (inside the gap). From there, it begins to rise again. 🔸Important Tips When Using FVG: Don’t rely on FVGs alone—combine them with: -Market Structure. -Support and resistance zones. -Confirmation indicators like RSI or Volume Profile. -Best used on higher timeframes (15m, 1H, 4H, Daily). -The gap can be filled the same day or after days/weeks. 🔸Conclusion The Fair Value Gap is a powerful analytical tool used to identify zones of institutional interest. It plays a key role in the toolset of professional traders who follow smart money principles. By mastering this concept, traders can improve entry and exit timing, reduce risk, and increase their chances of success. Best regards Ceciliones🎯
Education
by ceciliones
35
Bitcoin New ATH - Where now?After Bitcoin makes new all time highs, the next steps are very important. Where price goes now can be tricky to predict as there is the rare factor of price. One of the only ways to predict where BTC may find resistance during price discovery is to use Fibonacci levels, using Fib extensions the first target for me would be between $117,500-$120,000. This area would be between the fib extension and the big even level, RSI would also be overbought on the daily time frame. For the bearish scenario I think it's a much simpler play from a TA standpoint, lose the trend channel and get back under the old ATH level and I think we see a pullback towards $97,000. After such an extreme rally over the last 2 months with little to no rest a 10% correction would not be out of the ordinary despite such bullish ETF inflows. I have mapped a second target area should $97,000 fail, a SFP of the range can lead to a retest of the midpoint, this correction path would be much more severe with a more than 15% move lower. To sum it all up Bitcoin has been on a great run in the last 2 months and has reached most traders common target of making a new ATH. Now there must be a new objective... Continue the move into price discovery or a corrective move? Price discovery has no previous selling history and so Fib levels along with big even levels are used to predict resistance levels. Corrective move would mean dropping out of the bullish trend channel and falling into a place of support, in my mind that would be ~$97,000 or failing that ~$91,000 (range midpoint).
by ProR35
ADA Is Approaching a Trap Zone ? Yello Paradisers, are you watching how ADA is slowly coiling up near a crucial level while pretending nothing’s happening? Don’t be fooled — this is the calm before the storm, and the next move could wipe out the unprepared. 💎#ADAUSDT is currently respecting a well-established ascending channel. We’ve already seen three meaningful reactions at the ascending support, each triggering fresh bullish momentum. At the same time, the price is pressing just above a key demand zone around the $0.73–$0.74 region. This level remains absolutely critical for the bulls to defend if the structure is to remain intact. 💎What adds strength to this setup is #ADA’s current trading position above both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA on the daily timeframe. This reinforces the short-to-mid-term bullish bias. The 50 EMA is starting to slope upward, signaling that momentum could be gradually building, while the 200 EMA sits well below as solid structural support. 💎As long as the price continues to respect the ascending support line and stays above the demand zone, we expect a continuation move toward the $0.8728 moderate resistance. A successful break and close above that could open up the next leg toward $1.0011, where a strong supply zone sits waiting. 💎The real danger lies below $0.6495. A daily close under this level would not just invalidate the current setup it would completely shift market structure and expose ADA to deeper downside, likely towards the $0.60 area or lower. Discipline, patience, robust strategies, and trading tactics are the only ways you can make it long-term in this market. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144 🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen. The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets. 🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services. Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target. This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat. 🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety. 📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1 On the H1 chart: Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low. EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum. Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+ However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data. 🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred): Entry: 142.70 – 142.90 Stop-Loss: 142.30 Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60 Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy: Entry: 144.15 Stop-Loss: 143.70 Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50 ⚠️ Key Events to Watch: US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD. BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
8
EUR/GBP Bullish Breakout Forming – Falling Wedge & Retest SetupEUR/GBP has been in a prolonged downtrend over the past several weeks, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. However, the recent price action shows signs of exhaustion in selling pressure, as the candles begin to compress into a Falling Wedge pattern — a classic bullish reversal formation. The wedge is defined by two descending, converging trendlines. As price moves closer to the apex of this wedge, volatility contracts and volume typically dries up (not shown here, but conceptually expected). This signals that market participants are preparing for a directional breakout, most likely to the upside in this context. 🔍 Key Technical Elements: 🔸 1. Falling Wedge Pattern: The Falling Wedge is a bullish setup that forms during a downtrend and signals a potential reversal when confirmed. Price here has followed a steady decline, but the slowing momentum and structure of the wedge suggest the sellers are losing control. The wedge acts as a compression zone, where bearish moves are becoming less impactful. Price touches both upper and lower wedge boundaries multiple times, increasing pattern validity. A breakout has already occurred, and the pair is now undergoing a textbook retest of the broken wedge resistance (now acting as support). 🔸 2. Retest at Key Support Zone (SR Interchange): The retest is happening precisely at a former support/resistance flip zone, labeled SR – Interchange on the chart. This is a historically significant area where price has reacted multiple times, adding confluence to the setup. If this level holds during the retest, it may invite strong buying interest, fueling the bullish breakout move. 🔸 3. Resistance Zones & Targets: Inner Resistance (~0.8460): First hurdle for bulls; breaching this will signal strong momentum. Minor Resistance (~0.85618): This is the primary target of the setup, based on previous structure and wedge height projection. Major Resistance (~0.8740): A longer-term bullish objective if momentum sustains beyond the first two targets. These zones serve as logical areas for profit-taking and reassessment. 📐 Measured Move & Target Projection: The projected breakout target of 0.85618 is derived using a combination of: The vertical height of the wedge at its thickest point. Previous market structure resistance zones. Fibonacci and price symmetry (if analyzed further). This target also aligns with a previous supply zone, making it a strong magnet for price if bullish momentum kicks in. 💡 Trading Plan (Not Financial Advice): This setup provides a good risk-to-reward opportunity if executed with patience and proper confirmation: Entry Zone: After bullish confirmation at the retest (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, pin bar, or break of minor lower high). Stop Loss: Below the SR Interchange zone or recent swing low (~0.8350–0.8360). Target 1: Inner Resistance (~0.8460) Target 2: Minor Resistance (~0.85618) Target 3 (extended): Major Resistance (~0.8740) 🔄 Market Psychology: This chart setup reflects a shift in momentum and sentiment: Sellers have driven the price down consistently but have failed to create new significant lows with force. Buyers are stepping in at key demand zones, creating higher lows within the wedge. The breakout suggests smart money accumulation, and the current retest offers one of the last low-risk entries before a broader move. 🔔 Confirmation to Watch: Bullish reversal candlestick patterns at the retest zone. Break above local lower highs near 0.8440–0.8460. Momentum indicators (if used) showing divergence or crossover confirmation. 📉 Bias: Short-Term Bullish Valid if support at 0.8390–0.8400 holds and price confirms breakout continuation. 🧠 Minds Post (Expanded Explanation) Title: EUR/GBP Bullish Reversal Developing – Falling Wedge Breakout Retest EUR/GBP has broken out of a textbook falling wedge on the 4H chart, which often signals the end of a downtrend and beginning of a new bullish phase. The price is currently pulling back, testing the breakout zone — a crucial step in confirming the validity of the breakout. If this retest holds, we may see a sharp move toward the 0.8460 and 0.8560 levels — both key resistances based on past price action. This pattern reflects a deeper market psychology shift — from consistent bearish dominance to a potential bullish takeover. Smart money may already be positioning here. I’m watching for confirmation at the support zone around 0.8390. If price holds and breaks above local highs, a continuation toward the upper resistance is likely. Let the market come to you. Don’t chase. Wait for structure, then trade with confidence.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades