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GBP/USD – Bearish Structure with Possible Short-Term Pullback📊 GBP/USD – Bearish Structure with Possible Short-Term Pullback Timeframe: 30-Minute | Date: July 29, 2025 Price action recently broke down from a well-respected ascending channel, confirming a shift in market structure with a Change of Character (CHOCH) followed by a Break of Structure (BOS). Since then, GBP/USD has been respecting a descending trend channel, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. 🔍 Current Setup: Price is testing a major support area around 1.3300–1.3320. A minor pullback is expected as indicated by the bullish wick rejections. However, the overall bias remains bearish unless we break and hold above the 1.3353–1.3406 resistance zone and the descending trendline. The Ichimoku Cloud and Supertrend both show bearish momentum. 📈 Potential Scenario: Price may bounce from the support area and retest the upper boundary of the descending channel before resuming the bearish trend. ⚠️ Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 1.33530 / 1.34063 / 1.34738 Support: 1.33200 / 1.33000 💡 Structure Notes: CHOCH = Trend Reversal Signal BOS = Confirmation of Downtrend Cloud = Dynamic Resistance
Long
by AllyPipsExpert
Gold Price Analysis (GC1! or XAU/USD): Challenges and OutlookSince reaching a historic high of $3,509 on April 22, 2025, gold has struggled to maintain its upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the price experienced a sharp rejection spike after touching that peak, prompting a sideways range as the market seeks a clearer direction. From a technical perspective, a stronger US dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold, making it a more expensive investment for holders. However, examining the chart of GC1! * alongside the DXY shows that even during periods of a robust dollar, gold has continued to rise. Additionally, recent years have seen seasonality effects on gold largely ignored, with the yellow metal persistently climbing. The underlying reasons are multifaceted, but a key factor is gold’s status as a safe-haven asset—investors prefer to hold gold during times of uncertainty and economic turmoil. * GOLD and DXY correlation Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the consensus is that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with unchanged rates. From both fundamental and technical viewpoints, recent data suggest a cautious outlook. Notably, non-commercial traders added nearly 40,000 long contracts last week, indicating bullish sentiment. Conversely, retail traders have reduced their positions, which could signal a potential shift in market dynamics. The key question remains: where might be a strategic entry point if gold resumes its upward trend? In the chart, I’ve highlighted two daily demand zones and a strong weekly demand area. There’s a possibility that the price may not revisit the weekly demand zone to accommodate new longs, instead triggering entry signals from one of the daily demand zones. I recommend adding these zones to your watchlist as potential entry points. What are your thoughts? I look forward to your insights! ✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
8
Ethereum Price to Reach $4,000, but Market Top Suggests DelayBINANCE:ETHUSDT current price stands at $3,872, holding above its local support level of $3,742. While ETH is approaching the $4,000 mark , it has not yet managed to breach it. This resistance could continue to hold, limiting Ethereum's immediate potential for further gains. Currently, 96% of BINANCE:ETHUSDT total supply is in profit. Historically, when the profitable supply surpasses 95%, it signals a market top . This has been followed by price corrections as investors begin to secure profits. If the market top triggers a reversal, BINANCE:ETHUSDT price could drop to $3,530 or lower . A sharp decline to $3,131 is also a possibility, erasing much of the recent gains made in the past month. On the other hand, if the influx of new addresses continues and strengthens, BINANCE:ETHUSDT may finally break through the $4,000 resistance. Should this happen, ETH could rise towards $4,425, with a renewed surge in price. This would invalidate the bearish thesis and push Ethereum into a new bullish phase.
by aaryamann_shrivastava_bic
Tuesday 29 July: Forex Market thoughts The EUR has begun the week under pressure following the US / EUR trade deal. EUR weakness could be out down to what they call 'sell the fact', meaning buy last week's deal rumours / sell (take profit) on the announcement. Or, more likely, it could be because it appears the US has the better side of the deal. Either way, all of lat week's EUR positivity has dissipated. I didn't get involved in a EUR short trade yesterday, but there is a case to say it was viable. The USD and JPY begin the week on the front foot. Possibly benefitting from 'EUR liquidity', or possibly due to 'positioning' ahead of this week's FOMC and BOJ meetings. As things stand, with the VIX below 15 and the S&P still riding high, I maintain my view that according to market fundamentals, 'risk on' trades 'should' be viable. Which means staying patient and waiting for a turnaround, particularly on the JPY charts. If that turnaround doesn't come, I could be forced to change my view.
SP:SPXLong
by johnelfedforexblog
Zora Price Stands 35% From ATH; Can It Make It This Week?MEXC:ZORAUSDT has been rallying for the past ten days, recently reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $0.105. Currently, Zora is trading at $0.775 , just below the resistance of $0.085. This recent rally has sparked optimism among investors, positioning Zora for potential further gains. Given the altcoin’s 7% increase today, there’s a high probability that $ MEXC:ZORAUSDT will surpass its ATH of $0.105 , potentially reaching new highs beyond $0.140 this week . The strong momentum indicates that the bullish trend could continue if the current market conditions hold. However, if investor sentiment shifts and selling pressure intensifies, MEXC:ZORAUSDT price could dip below $0.052 . A significant drop through this support level would invalidate the current bullish outlook and could signal a longer-term decline in the coin’s value.
by aaryamann_shrivastava_bic
NAS/TEC100 - LETS GET NASTY ON NAS100Team, NAS currently sitting at 23480, before the US market open however during the market open, please be aware of the volatility that may hit your stop loss You have 2 options to trade on this NAS- NASTY Option 1: wait for market open, if it hits 23500-23515 - then short with stop loss at 23580 Option 2: Short at the current market with small volume - and if the market open with volatile, you can take another advantage of shorting more volume as per option 1 instructed. OK, pick your strategy! do NOT be shy. I am going to have small short position and will consider adding more during US market opening after 5-10 minutes, much easier to see the direction of the market - we do LIVE trading everyday. Please note: if NAS fall below 23450-40 bring stop loss to BE (Break even) 1st TARGET range: 23435-23416 - make sure take 70% volume 2nd target at 23390 to 23376 Why do I short on NAS when tomorrow rate decision, i think this quarter report, market will not be the same as last quarter, even rate cut!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by ActiveTraderRoom
SSTEEL EXCHANGE INDIA Steel Exchange India Ltd. is a mid-sized integrated steel manufacturer, producing billets, TMT bars, and structural steel. The company operates across Andhra Pradesh with backward integration through captive power and sponge iron capacity. It serves construction, infrastructure, and industrial clients through its Vizag Steel vertical. The stock is currently trading at ₹10.89. Steel Exchange India Ltd. – FY22–FY25 Snapshot Sales – ₹814 Cr → ₹860 Cr → ₹918 Cr → ₹982 Cr – Gradual expansion driven by volume growth and demand Net Profit – ₹39.6 Cr → ₹45.3 Cr → ₹50.6 Cr → ₹56.4 Cr – Steady earnings growth through efficiency and pricing Company Order Book – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong – Consistent inflow from infra-linked segments Dividend Yield (%) – 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% – No payouts, reinvestment-focused strategy Operating Performance – Moderate → Strong → Strong → Strong – Margin stability supported by captive power Equity Capital – ₹53.68 Cr (constant) – No dilution, lean capital base Total Debt – ₹190 Cr → ₹180 Cr → ₹168 Cr → ₹155 Cr – Controlled deleveraging from operational cash flows Total Liabilities – ₹310 Cr → ₹325 Cr → ₹340 Cr → ₹356 Cr – Scaling modestly with demand Fixed Assets – ₹145 Cr → ₹153 Cr → ₹160 Cr → ₹168 Cr – Capex directed toward plant modernization and efficiency upgrades Latest Highlights FY25 net profit rose 11.5% YoY to ₹56.4 Cr; revenue increased 7.0% to ₹982 Cr EPS: ₹1.05 | EBITDA Margin: 14.9% | Net Margin: 5.74% Return on Equity: 12.34% | Return on Assets: 9.81% Promoter holding: 59.44% | Dividend Yield: 0.00% Operational efficiency gains from captive power and logistics optimization Rural infra and housing demand driving uptick in TMT segment volumes Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding remains stable at 59.44% with no pledging or dilution. FII interest is minimal given the mid-cap profile, while HNI accumulation is visible across recent delivery spikes. Institutional exposure remains niche, centered around infra-allocation and value opportunities in commodity-linked verticals. Business Growth Verdict Yes, Steel Exchange India is growing steadily across core product lines Margins supported by integration and volume expansion Debt is declining steadily with earnings momentum Capex remains efficient and supports operational improvement Company Guidance Management projects single-digit revenue growth in FY26 driven by product mix enhancement and improved capacity utilization. Margin profile expected to remain consistent due to backward integration and demand visibility from infrastructure. Final Investment Verdict Steel Exchange India Ltd. presents a modest yet efficient growth story in India’s steel sector. Its improving margin profile, steady earnings, and conservative capital structure make it suitable for gradual accumulation. The company’s core focus on integrated operations and infra-led volumes provides a base for value creation, appealing to investors seeking mid-cap manufacturing exposure in commodity-driven sectors.
NSE:STEELXINDLong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
“Pack Your Bags… or Bail Out Fast”This is the “I’m just here for the pop” strategy — where we ride that violent engulfing candle like it owes us money… but keep one hand on the eject button. AMIX just flash-banged the chart with a surprise move from the graveyard, blowing past the 50MA like it saw its ex. We’re targeting a scalp-to-swing depending on whether it holds above $1.36 (5MA) or rejects at $1.42–$1.48 (previous supply zone). Tight stop under $1.29, because if this turns fake, you’ll be dragging that little red suitcase next to the cartoon dude — headed back to “Bagholder Island.”
NASDAQ:AMIXLong
by bovinebreed
Lucara long Lucara is almost below the TSX lows made in 2008. If you bought equity in the company anywhere in the last 10 years you are losing money. The company is in debt to finance the construction of new mining facilities and has been taking their sweet time. However, the owners are Lundin and they know how to play the game with equity, marginal pricing, debt, balance sheet shenanigans, and leverage. I would not at all be surprised if the debt in the company's balance sheet is mostly owned by the family and they are just taking out their pay in the form of debt repayments instead of in the form of dividends. Diamonds are famous for being used in drilling, I'm not sure if Lucara sells diamonds for drilling, but Trump's policy is drill baby drill. Even if Lucara does not sell diamonds for drilling they should benefit from the news cycle and public perception. This is a very speculative play and it depends of a series of factors, but I reckon there is a good chance it goes to 0.88 USD/share, 1.10, even 1.45.
OTC:LUCRFLong
by TraderItcha
ARKK: The Calm Before the Innovation Storm -ALTSEASON Is COMING🚀 ARKK: The Calm Before the Innovation Storm 🌪️ The markets are shifting, and disruption is about to go vertical. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is quietly positioning itself for what could be the most explosive move of this decade. With high-conviction bets in AI, Bitcoin, genomics, and next-gen tech, this isn’t just a fund—it’s a launchpad for exponential growth. This post breaks down exactly why ARKK could go parabolic—and why the smart money is already moving in. 👇 Explosive upside in 2026 ARKK is already up over 24% YTD , showing strong momentum compared to broader markets and signaling early stages of a potential parabolic move . High-conviction concentration in game-changers Top 10 holdings include Tesla, Roku, Zoom, Coinbase, UiPath, Block, Crispr Therapeutics, DraftKings, Shopify, and Exact Sciences. These are leaders in innovation sectors with massive upside potential . Deep exposure to Bitcoin and digital assets Heavy allocation to Coinbase and Block gives indirect exposure to Bitcoin . If BTC breaks into a new cycle high , ARKK stands to benefit significantly. Positioned in exponential growth sectors Focus on AI, genomics, EVs, fintech, robotics, and blockchain , all of which are entering accelerating adoption phases globally. Aggressive smart-money accumulation Cathie Wood’s team continues buying aggressively during dips, reinforcing institutional confidence in the fund’s long-term trajectory. Technical breakout structures forming Ascending triangle and multi-month consolidation breakouts suggest a technical setup primed for explosive upside . Innovation supercycle aligning ARKK's themes are aligned with major global shifts like de-dollarization, decentralized finance, and AI convergence . High beta = massive upside leverage With a beta above 2 , ARKK tends to outperform in bull runs , offering leveraged exposure to innovation without the need for margin. Resurgence of top holdings Names like Coinbase, Tesla, Shopify, and Roku are up 50%–100% YTD , driving ARKK’s NAV growth and fueling bullish sentiment . Long-term vision with short-term catalysts The fund projects 5x returns over the next five years , while Bitcoin halving cycles, tech innovation, and regulatory clarity serve as short-term ignition points . Marty Boots | 17-Year Trader — smash that 👍👍, hit LIKE & SUBSCRIBE, and share your views in the comments below so we can make better trades & grow together!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by MartyBoots
41
GOLD trades in narrow range after 4 sessions of sharp declineOn Tuesday (July 29), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD traded in a narrow range after yesterday's sharp decline, and the current gold price is around 3,315 USD/ounce. The OANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks on Monday, mainly due to the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. The previous report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of US JOLTS jobs unexpectedly increased in May, reaching the highest level since November last year. The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the US in May was 7.769 million, far exceeding the forecast of all economists surveyed. Looking back at the data in April, the number of JOLTS job vacancies also showed an unexpected increase. The JOLTS jobs report is a closely watched labor market data by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the Conference Board of America's Consumer Confidence Index for July is scheduled to be released on the same day and is expected to be 95.8, compared to the previous value of 93.0. The fundamental pressure that gold is under OANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure yesterday and fell to a near three-week low, mainly due to the trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. Moreover, US President Trump announced “global tariffs” of 15% to 20% on most countries, a change from his previous statement last week. The deal reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union late last week will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump had threatened, easing fears of a wider trade war. The U.S. and Japan also reached a deal last week, and U.S. and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm, Sweden, this week with the goal of extending the tariff deadline by 90 days. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been on a four-day losing streak, a decline that threatens bullish expectations as its current position gradually deprives it of any room for further upside. Specifically, gold has recovered from the psychological level of $3,300 but the actual recovery is not significant, while it is under pressure from the EMA21 which is currently the closest resistance. On the other hand, gold has fallen below both the long-term and short-term trend channels. If it continues to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, this will confirm a break below the psychological level of $3,300, then the downside target will be around $3,246 in the short term, rather than $3,228. RSI is pointing down, below 50 and still far from the 20-0 area, also showing that in terms of momentum, gold is also under pressure and there is still a lot of room for decline ahead. For gold to be eligible for an increase, it needs to at least bring price activity back above the EMA21, back inside the price channels. On the current daily chart, the technical conditions are more inclined towards the possibility of a decrease. Notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3355 - 3353⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3359 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3285 - 3287⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3281 →Take Profit 1 3293 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3299
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
DOGEUSDT 4H – Bullish Reversal Building from FMFR Zone📊 Chart Context & Market Maker Concept Breakdown DOGEUSDT on the 4H timeframe is setting up for a potential trend reversal, following a structured retracement into a strong demand zone that aligns with multiple smart money confirmations: QFL base, trendline break, volume absorption, and FMFR (Final Move Final Reaction). Let’s dive into the technical layers of this setup: 🔻 1. Downtrend Phase & Structure Setup After peaking near $0.29, DOGE entered a controlled downtrend, respecting a descending trendline and forming a consistent lower-high structure. Each rejection from the trendline reflects institutional distribution, gradually pushing price into lower demand levels where value buyers can step in. 🔄 2. Supply Flips into Demand (S/D Flip Zone) A key level near $0.225 – $0.230 initially acted as a supply zone — but following QFL logic and smart money reaccumulation, it is now showing signs of demand activation. The chart highlights “Supply Interchange in Demand”, which means that this zone has been repurposed — from distribution to accumulation — another MMC footprint. 📌 Interpretation: This is where large players flip their position bias and start loading for the next leg up. 🔵 3. Volume Absorption Confirmed Prior to the current bounce, a strong volume absorption phase was detected within a falling wedge or triangular base, shown on the chart. Despite sell-side pressure, buyers continued to absorb orders — a sign that selling is weakening, and accumulation is underway. 📌 Clue: Volume absorption often precedes an explosive breakout, especially when aligned with FMFR or QFL patterns. 🔁 4. Final Move Final Reaction (FMFR) Price tapped into the green box zone one final time, marked as FMFR (Final Move Final Reaction) — a key MMC reversal signal. This occurs when market makers fake a breakdown (creating panic) and then sharply reverse, trapping breakout sellers and scooping up liquidity. A small bullish candle formation (Bullish Engulfing / Pin Bar) can be seen within this zone — the “Bullish Pattern” label marks this. 🧠 Smart Money Logic: Institutions want liquidity. FMFR fakes weakness to attract retail shorts, then reverses to ride liquidity to the upside. 🔗 5. QFL Base + Break of Structure Setup A QFL (Quick Flip Level) pattern is forming. This represents a market structure flip, where price first drops from a base, reclaims it later, and continues in the opposite direction. Breaking this base and confirming above it would mark a true reversal in structure. 🛠️ Technical Confluences at Work Element Insight 🔹 QFL Structure Base level reclaim in play (structure shift) 🔹 Volume Absorption Smart money soaking up sell pressure 🔹 FMFR Reaction Final stop hunt before the rally begins 🔹 S/D Flip Supply turned to demand near $0.225 zone 🔹 Bullish Pattern Early confirmation of reversal 📈 Projection Path & Reversal Zones Two projected zones are mapped for price behavior: 🔸 Central Reversal Zone (~$0.250): First significant resistance where price may pause or react. Ideal partial profit level or re-entry after pullback. 🔹 Main Reversal Zone (~$0.270–0.275): Target area for a full liquidity sweep. This was a previous high-volume supply zone. If price reaches here, expect potential rejection or distribution unless momentum is strong. 🎯 Trade Setup Strategy (Based on Your Chart) Entry Area: $0.225 – $0.229 (FMFR Reversal Zone) Stop-Loss: Below $0.221 (beneath FMFR low) Take Profit 1: $0.250 (central zone) Take Profit 2: $0.270 – $0.275 (main reversal zone) 📐 Risk-to-Reward: TP1: 1:2 TP2: 1:3+ depending on entry timing 🧠 Psychology Behind the Setup This DOGE setup is engineered to trap emotional traders: Retail sellers enter late near the bottom. Smart money waits at FMFR zone, absorbing liquidity. Volume builds quietly. Market reverses explosively, catching retail off guard. By recognizing this setup early, you’re aligned with Market Makers, not against them.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
TONUSDT Bullish Reversal from Demand with QFL Base | MMC Setup📊 Technical Breakdown – 4H Chart ✅ Overview TON/USDT is exhibiting early signs of a bullish reversal after a structured decline into a key smart money demand zone. The setup reflects multiple layers of confirmation—QFL base, multi-supply absorption, liquidity inefficiencies, and a positive reversal pattern—suggesting a high-probability opportunity for upside. 🔹 1. Impulsive Move & Liquidity Sweep Price rallied aggressively on July 22–23, pushing toward $3.60, breaking short-term highs and triggering liquidity grabs above recent consolidation zones. This surge absorbed significant buy-side liquidity, leaving a supply zone behind, now marked as the Next Reversal Zone. After liquidity was collected and orders filled, the market reversed sharply, consistent with institutional profit-taking or engineered liquidation traps. 🧠 Smart Money Insight: Institutions often push price into illiquid zones (above highs) to trap retail and fill large orders. This marks the first phase of the trap. 🔻 2. QFL Base and Multi-Supply Absorption The price structure created a Quick Flip Level (QFL) — a smart money concept where price forms a base, drops, then rallies, leaving behind an institutional demand zone. The current pullback has revisited this exact QFL base, now reinforced by 3x supply absorption, enhancing the zone's strength. This confluence increases the probability of a strong reaction to the upside from this level. 📌 Note: The “If Cross 3x Supply” label shows that this zone has absorbed multiple attempts to break down. It's now acting as a demand pocket. 🔄 3. Reversal Area – The Engine Room of Smart Money The Reversal Area is carefully marked at $3.20–$3.28 — the ideal discounted price zone where large buyers tend to step in. This zone is structurally important: Past breakout level Aligned with QFL base Beneath stop levels of breakout traders A Positive Pattern has now formed within this area—likely a bullish engulfing, morning star, or pin bar, depending on candle confirmation. 📌 Psychology: This zone acts as a trap. Retail traders often panic sell here, while smart money accumulates quietly before launching price upward again. 🧭 4. Dual Scenario Structure – Projected Paths You’ve beautifully mapped two valid future price scenarios based on reaction to the Central Reversal Zone (~$3.35): 🔵 Scenario 1 – Healthy Pullback Before Continuation Price climbs toward the central zone, then pulls back slightly to retest support near $3.28–$3.30 (label 1). This allows further accumulation before price breaks higher. This is a safer re-entry scenario for patient traders looking for a retest. 🟢 Scenario 2 – Direct Impulsive Rally to Next Reversal Zone Price continues with bullish momentum, slicing through $3.35 and aiming for the Next Reversal Zone at $3.52–$3.60 (label 2). This zone contains remaining liquidity, left uncollected from the previous impulse. Price is likely to reverse or pause at this level again due to heavy supply. 📌 Key Tip: If price reaches that zone without significant resistance or exhaustion, it may signal continuation potential with minor corrections. 💼 Strategic Trade Plan (High-Probability Setup) Entry Zone: $3.20 – $3.28 (Reversal Area) Stop-Loss: Below $3.15 (beneath structure + QFL base invalidation) Target 1: $3.35 (Central Reversal Zone) Target 2: $3.52–$3.60 (Liquidity Completion & Next Reversal Zone) 🧮 Risk-Reward Estimate: Conservative: 1:1.8 Aggressive: 1:2.5 or better if price reaches high liquidity zone. 🔄 MMC Flow Summary – What the Market Makers Are Doing: Create a trap at the top (collect liquidity and fake the trend) Force price down into demand (scare retail + grab stops) Absorb sell orders in bulk at QFL/demand zone Form bullish reversal pattern (positive structure) Push price upward again, aiming for uncollected liquidity above 📌 This is a classic MMC cycle — engineered by large players, and now you’re aligned with their strategy. 🧠 Why This Matters This chart isn’t just about entry and exit; it’s about understanding the underlying psychology and structure. By aligning with the smart money footprint — QFL, supply absorption, and liquidity targeting — you're maximizing edge and minimizing guesswork.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Report - 29 jully, 2025Summary Initial optimism following the historic US–EU trade agreement has swiftly eroded as France and Germany openly criticized the deal, warning it undermines EU sovereignty and economic stability. The euro fell sharply, carmakers led equity declines, and political fractures within the bloc widened. While the deal averted a full-blown trade war, concerns over inflation, competitiveness, and regulatory submission have shifted sentiment. The perception of European capitulation under pressure from Trump has reignited transatlantic tensions and injected fresh volatility into global markets. This retreat in EU support underscores the precarious nature of transatlantic cooperation under Trump’s economic nationalism. Meanwhile, signs of tech decoupling, tariff expansion beyond the EU, and deferred retaliation signal a fractured global trade order. European fiscal policy, particularly Germany’s defense-driven deficit expansion, is now under heightened scrutiny amid market volatility and FX pressure. Market Reactions Equity markets across the EU opened higher on tariff relief expectations but reversed course as Germany’s Chancellor Merz and France’s Prime Minister Bayrou denounced the deal. The DAX fell 1.1%, CAC 40 slipped 0.4%, and eurozone auto stocks plunged 1.8%. The euro lost over 1% against the dollar in its second-largest daily drop this year, reflecting concern over structural imbalance and political subordination. In contrast, semiconductor stocks surged, with ASML and BE Semiconductor rising over 4% as the tech sector escaped tariffs. Wall Street remained relatively stable, buoyed by optimism around defense, energy, and tech sectors gaining from the deal. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.9%, reflecting both euro weakness and expectations that inflationary tariffs could keep Fed rates elevated. Fiscal and Political Implications The backlash from Berlin and Paris lays bare deep fractures within the EU regarding its posture toward Washington. Chancellor Merz’s warning of "considerable damage" and Bayrou’s reference to EU “submission” cast doubt on Ursula von der Leyen’s negotiation strategy. The deal’s imposition of a 15% baseline tariff—triple the pre-deal weighted average—exposes Europe to substantial cost increases without achieving reciprocal liberalization. Internally, the European Commission is accused of caving to U.S. pressure while undermining its own credibility. Documents and diplomatic leaks suggest that more aggressive retaliatory planning was watered down due to fears of a broader security rupture, particularly concerning NATO and U.S. arms support to Ukraine. This reinforces the EU’s strategic dependency, limiting its ability to resist U.S. economic coercion. Germany’s effort to shield its auto industry via offset schemes largely failed, while Brussels’ “trade bazooka” was shelved in favor of “strategic patience.” This perceived capitulation may embolden further unilateral action from the U.S., especially as Trump eyes tariffs on pharmaceuticals and rest-of-world imports up to 20%. Strategic Forecasts Europe's short-term economic outlook has darkened. The tariff burden—especially on high-margin exporters like German autos—raises inflation risks while lowering competitiveness. Political backlash could destabilize Commission leadership and provoke calls for more aggressive economic sovereignty. Expect further euro weakness, sectoral underperformance in autos and industrials, and possibly downgrades to GDP forecasts across the eurozone. On the U.S. side, Trump’s success with transatlantic leverage may embolden him to expand tariff threats to Asia and Latin America. The Fed will likely face a more inflationary policy environment, with fiscal and protectionist stimulus prolonging higher rate expectations. Simultaneously, China's relief from U.S. tech export freezes—designed to secure a Xi-Trump summit—adds complexity to the strategic tech rivalry. The suspension of chip export controls could spur near-term capital inflows to Chinese AI firms while igniting concern in U.S. defense circles. Risks and Opportunities Risks Breakdown in EU cohesion and trust in Commission leadership Expansion of U.S. tariffs to rest of world (ROW), escalating global trade friction Retaliation by China if U.S. chip diplomacy reverses Drag on European industrial profits and inflation-driven ECB recalibration Fed rate path upwardly skewed due to structural tariff-driven inflation Opportunities U.S. defense and energy sectors benefit from guaranteed EU purchases Semiconductors remain shielded, with valuation support in ASML, TSMC, Nvidia Dollar strength provides tactical trades in EURUSD, GBPUSD Select EM exporters (e.g. Brazil) benefit from re-diversified trade flows AI hardware and chip infrastructure (Samsung–Tesla deal) gains strategic momentum Key Asset Impact – Outlook XAUUSD (Gold): Gold holding firm around $3,340. With fresh political discord and rising protectionist inflation, gold remains a hedge. If Fed signals rate hold, expect a push to $3,400. Bias: Bullish S&P 500: Resilient, driven by defense, energy, and AI. But prolonged strong dollar and tariff-induced input cost pressures are risk factors. Bias: Moderately Bullish Dow Jones: Benefiting from defense and dividend-heavy mix, but under pressure from industrial drag. Bias: Neutral to Bullish DXY (US Dollar Index): Strengthening on euro weakness and policy divergence. However, long-term Fed autonomy concerns and political volatility could reverse trend. Bias: Bullish short-term, Neutral longer-term USDJPY: Little movement today. BoJ still cautious, yen capped unless Fed shifts dovish or global risk-off resumes. Bias: Range-bound EURUSD: Second-largest single-day drop YTD. Political backlash and export headwinds limit upside. Bias: Bearish Crude Oil (WTI): Flat to slightly higher, supported by EU commitment to U.S. energy, but demand data remains soft. Bias: Neutral Stoxx Autos: Heavy selloff (-1.8%) despite tariff reduction, reflecting margin pressure. Bias: Bearish ASML / BE Semiconductor: Relief rally on tariff exclusion. Long-term tailwinds from open AI infrastructure and Samsung–Tesla chip deal. Bias: Bullish
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
GBPCAD At Support - High probability reversalGBPCAD descended with strength, and has now reached a strong support zone. Price now hovers above and this zone and is a great indication to use for possible reversal move, that could send price into the 1.86100 level. But if price breaks below support with momentum, then I’ll back off this bullish bias and reassess, and consider the reversal idea invalidated, with potential for further downside. Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TrendDiva
39