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Fundamental Analysis

Yen extends gains, BOJ Core CPI lower than expectedThe Japanese yen has rallied for a third straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.38, down 0.33% on the day. The yen has climbed 1.3% since Thursday, as the US dollar is under pressure against the major currencies. BoJ Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, remained at 2.2% for a third consecutive month in March, shy of the forecast of 2.4%. This follows Japan's National Core CPI, which rose 3.2% y/y, matching expectations but higher than the 3.0% gain in February. National CPI eased to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in February and below the market estimate of 3.7%. The inflation data comes a week before the BoJ's policy meeting next week. The central bank has signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates as wages and inflation have been rising. However, the risks to inflation and growth from US tariffs have muddied the rate outlook and the BoJ may decide to push off another hike until later in the year. The finance ministers of Japan and the US will meet later this week, as Tokyo looks to carve out some tariff exemptions. The BoJ is likely to sit tight and see if the talks lead to a breakthrough. The US is expected to bring up the exchange rate, as President Trump has accused Japan of deliberately keeping the yen weak in order to protect its export sector. There are no key releases out of the US today, but we'll hear from three FOMC members later today. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 10%, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in June.
by OANDA
Why Is the T Bond Heading Down?The downward pressure did not start with the Liberation Day tariffs on 2nd April. Based on the 30-year long-term bond price chart, the market peaked in 2020, then broke below a major support line—established since the 1980s—in 2022. Since that break, US bonds have been on a downward trajectory. So, what happened in 2020 and 2022 that set the bond market on shaky ground? Why is the recent tariff shock just a continuation of developments that began back then? And where are bond prices heading next? This goes beyond investors offloading its US Treasury holdings after 2nd April. U.S. Treasury Futures & Options Ticker: ZB Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by konhow
XAUUSD : $3,460Historically, Inflation Adjusted Gold Price, Adjusted to Today's Dollar reached a record high of around $3,460 in 1980 and a record low of $289 A moment ago, the price just hit that. What happens now is open to speculation. In the past, the gold price has declined significantly for long periods after approaching its previous inflation-adjusted peaks. This happened in 1980, 2011, and again in 2020. Let’s see what happens this time. I am in. Are you? Good luck.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by i_am_siew
Trade Idea: US30 Long ( MARKET )Technical Justification: Daily Chart: • Oversold Conditions: RSI is at 35.90, approaching oversold. • MACD is deeply negative (-905.428 / -831.781), signaling extended downside and a potential for a mean reversion bounce. • Price recently bounced sharply off a support area around 37,800–38,000, forming a possible bullish rejection wick. 15-Min Chart: • Bullish Divergence visible in RSI and MACD. • RSI rebounded from sub-30 to 52.10, signaling strengthening momentum. • MACD histogram has reduced in negativity, suggesting decreasing bearish pressure. 3-Min Chart: • Clear short-term uptrend forming after a strong intraday drop. • RSI 62.56 and MACD turning positive show bullish momentum building. • Price just reclaimed a key intraday level (~38139) with follow-through. ⸻ Fundamental Bias: Recent oversold market conditions, combined with potential short-term relief rally due to earnings optimism, Fed rate pause speculation, or geopolitical cooling, support a tactical long bias. ⸻ Trade Setup: • Entry (Buy): 38,150 • Above the minor resistance turned support zone and confirmation of bullish momentum. • Stop Loss (SL): 37,800 • Below the recent strong support zone from Daily and intraday. • Take Profit (TP): 38,750 • Just below the next major resistance zone on the 15-min/1H chart. FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Long
by KeN-WeNzEl
Has the Gold Rush Only Just Begun? A Bitcoin StoryIt is starting to look like we have entered a new trend on gold. Breaking out of the bullish trend, into a steeper one. The chart reminds me of the 1970's. Not the same but similar. 1970's US goes off the gold standard, money is now debt, USD becomes worthless when compared to gold (the time tested store of value that it is, of course) Money printer go brrrr... Now 2019. COVID, shut down the world, DWARF ALL OTHER LIQUIDITY INJECTION EVENTS COMBINED! I'm sensing a pattern. It has amazed me at what we have got away with so far. Considering the magnitude of what Covid and the following response was. I honestly thought it would be much worse, but I don't think we have seen the full impact yet. I think it may take a decade or more before we see the extent of the fallout. Heck, or this could just be another step in the wrong direction that just continues us down the road of financial repression. Devaluing our currencies until they look closer to the yen while a majority of the population ie: the working class has no clue. Populism will continue to rise as people try to find the common enemy to blame/ hate because of their pent up rage, due things completely out of their control. The worst part is that they don't even know the real reason why this is happening. Printing money (debt creation) is robbing from the future. Governments around the world have been stealing for decades. I only see one path ahead, and it's only going to get worse. The pot has been heating up, we are getting close to the boiling point. People are starting to realize how hot its getting. I see, in the not to distant future, the possibility of a melt up in nominal terms. Time will tell, we will see how well the world governments handle this. Maybe they can manage this better than I expect. But if they cannot and the pace of the bull markets pick up into a parabolic trend due to the miss-management of debt. What goes up must come down. Asset bubbles will form and burst, as they do. We are in a diabolical game of musical chairs. All paths lead to Bitcoin, a redistribution of wealth to those willing to learn.
TVC:GOLDLong
by merchtank19
Bear Warning: 10% liquidation raid inboundYou had your chance. Price held both 50 & 100 EMA with precision — no panic, no bleed. Now volatility is coiling, and this chart smells like a 10% liquidation raid inbound. Every red candle that didn’t break support? Just fuel for the next green ignition. Bears stuck short at the lows? They’re the liquidity. Next move: Fast. Violent. Northbound. Don’t blink — $2.75–$2.85 is a magnet. And if volume steps in… $3+ will print in one candle.
BINANCE:FILUSDLong
by BroLal
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – April 22, 2025Structure: Premium rejection after ATH 3500 | Intraday bearish | HTF bullish trend 📉 Trend & Bias Macro (D1–H4): Bullish trend remains intact, but price rejected perfectly from the confirmed ATH at 3500, creating a bearish engulfing on H4 and Daily. Short-term (H1–M30): Bearish bias for intraday plays, confirmed by clean CHoCH and BOS on H1 + M30. 🔻 SELL SCENARIO #1 – RETEST OF LAST M15/H1 OB Entry Zone: 3485–3492 SL: 3501 (above ATH wick and OB invalidation) TP1: 3450 TP2: 3425 TP3: 3405 Confluences: Last valid OB on M15 before the drop FVG + imbalance above Weak high at 3492 Premium zone sweep Rejection from HTF ATH zone 🔻 SELL SCENARIO #2 – LIQUIDITY FAKEOUT ABOVE 3465 Entry Zone: 3463–3467 SL: 3474 TP1: 3435 TP2: 3415 TP3: 3400 Confluences: M5–M15 LHs and CHoCH Bearish reaction candle after multiple taps Previous imbalance and minor OB Trap area if price fails to break cleanly 🟢 BUY SCENARIO #1 – REACTION FROM CLEAN FVG + LIQUIDITY SWEEP Entry Zone: 3405–3412 SL: 3395 TP1: 3440 TP2: 3460 TP3: 3480 Confluences: Clear FVG chain (H1 + M30) Deep discount sweep Liquidity below 3405 Structure support + RSI oversold bounce potential 🟢 BUY SCENARIO #2 – FVG BOUNCE AT EQ ZONE Entry Zone: 3414–3420 SL: 3404 TP1: 3450 TP2: 3475 TP3: 3495 Confluences: EQ of M30 range Base of unfilled FVG Strong reaction last time from this zone EMA21 support 🔍 Key Zones & Market Notes Type Level Description 🔺 ATH 3500 Confirmed all-time high (April 22) 🔻 OB Sell 3485–3492 Last clean M15–H1 OB ⚠️ Weak High 3492 Inducement zone – watch fakeouts 🟩 FVG Buy 3405–3412 Strong FVG + liquidity sweep zone 📉 H1 BOS 3456 Intraday momentum shift 🔻 CHoCH 3440 Confirmed lower structure 🟦 Major Support 3362–3368 Valid HTF demand if price breaks down 🔲 EMA Zones EMA21/50 H1 Near 3415–3430 – dynamic support 🧠 Summary Gold is rejecting heavily from the new ATH at 3500. Intraday structure broke bearish (CHoCH, BOS on H1/M30), and price is now trading between premium OBs and deep FVGs. Both buy and sell sniper entries are available depending on how price reacts to 3465–3485 or if it sweeps the 3405–3412 liquidity area. HTF trend is bullish, but NY could bring a deeper correction if 3400 breaks. 🧠 Stay sharp. Avoid random entries. Stick to clean structure zones. 📊 Drop a like, leave a comment, and follow @GoldFxMinds for daily precision trades!
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
BTC top....watch out for the drop to low 80kBTC has had a nice little bump over the last few days, but let's not forget that there is a massive profit taking crowd behind it. We are reaching the tip of the gravy train and now profit taking will take into effect. Candles are shorter and slope is less steeps. Can't say for sure, but it def looks like it will drop to 81k support levels, as no one in their right mind will be buying at the top. You've been warned! All the best, always do your own due diligence, and this may be a nice time to look into BTCZ (inverse)!
Short
by antonini2002
Bulls Don’t Flinch – EMAs Holding Like a FortressPrice slammed into the 50 & 100 EMA confluence and bounced like clockwork. Shorts jumped in late. Bulls didn’t move. This isn’t weakness — it’s a reset before rampage. Volume cools, structure intact, EMAs untouched. If bears had firepower, we’d be below $2.45. But we’re not. We're holding the line like snipers in a foxhole. Next leg? A squeeze through the top. 📈 First stop: $2.80 🎯 Then $3.00 🔫 No mercy. This is not distribution. This is accumulation under pressure.
BINANCE:FILUSDLong
by BroLal
[D] SPX - 22.4.2024I felt like I wanted to post something positive amid the madness, although I remain bearish on SPX and USD since the beginning of 2024 - as my past predictions suggest. So far, the greatest businessman and dealmaker, Donald Trump has successfully outperformed on the time line most of the expectations that I deemed possible in a real-world setting. If that continues to hold true, it is possible that hereby - somewhat optimistic - prediction will again lag behind the reality on the scale of days to a couple of weeks. What I was hoping for, was a much welcomed break during the summer and a full-blown downfall into a recession afterwards. I'm much afraid, things I expected in 2026 might arrive considerably sooner.
SP:SPXShort
by KenzoYagai
Weekly Forex Market Analysis:EURUSD–Issue 207(FreeThe analyst predicts that the EUR/USD rate will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA