Fundamental Analysis
EURCAD Short 4/21/2025EUR/CAD Short Setup – Stop Run and Weekly Reversal in Play
We started the week with a burst of bullish activity on EUR/CAD — but it’s looking more like a liquidity grab than genuine strength.
Sunday Open: Within 12 hours of the weekly open (during thin liquidity), price broke last week’s high — a level that held all of last week — hinting at a possible engineered stop run.
Backdrop: The ECB’s 25bps rate cut last Thursday (April 17) continues to pressure the euro fundamentally. This morning's move likely reflects faux volume aimed at clearing out late sellers before a reversal.
Session Structure:
Asia: Extended the highs slightly.
London: Delivered a sharp drive up, breaking the weekly high mid-session — likely the final liquidity tap before reversing.
Now: London has closed. We’re heading into New York with momentum slowing and key reversal patterns forming.
Technical Confluence:
15-Min Chart: Clear double top.
1H Chart: Inside bar fakeout forming — breakout failed, candle about to close bearish.
These formations align with a classic market maker reversal model following a stop raid.
Bias: Bearish.
Targeting a move down to 1.53319 — a clean demand zone and structural target.
Stops above 1.6000 would be ideal for institutions to aim at, but I don’t believe we’ll reach that high. The signs of exhaustion are already visible.
Macro View: With euro weakness post-ECB and potential dollar strength building this week (especially with Trump pressuring global trade again), this may be the start of a decisive trend move to the downside.
Let’s see how New York handles this. If momentum confirms, we may be at the very beginning of a significant shift.
Tesla Shares (TSLA) Drop Nearly 6% Ahead of Quarterly ReportTesla Shares (TSLA) Drop Nearly 6% Ahead of Quarterly Report
On Monday, Tesla’s share price fell by almost 6%, dipping below $230 and hovering near its yearly low. Since the beginning of 2025, Tesla shares have lost approximately 44% in value, marking their worst quarter since 2022.
Why Is TSLA Falling?
There is no shortage of investor concerns, including (as reported by various media outlets):
→ Elon Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration, which is said to be distracting him from focusing on Tesla, particularly as signs emerge of slowing progress in the development of robotaxis and autonomous driving technology.
→ A decline in demand — both for the Cybertruck model specifically and the product line in general — especially amid protests and boycotts across the US and Europe. Tesla previously reported 336,681 vehicle deliveries in Q1, down 13% compared to the same period last year.
→ Increased competition from Chinese carmakers, uncertainty around international trade tariffs, and other contributing factors.
According to The Wall Street Journal, analysts at Barclays and Oppenheimer have voiced concerns about “brand dilution” and weakness in China, while Dan Ives of Wedbush is hopeful for an “inspirational vision” from Elon Musk.
Technical Analysis of TSLA Stock
We previously noted the importance of the $220 support level, which prevented the price from falling further during the first half of April (as indicated by the arrow), at a time when broader stock indices showed much more bearish trends.
That level still appears relevant for now, but it’s likely that the upcoming quarterly earnings report will trigger a sharp increase in volatility. Should investors find the results underwhelming, TSLA’s share price could fall to the lower boundary of the current descending channel (highlighted in red), potentially breaching the psychological $200-per-share mark.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Is #XLM Setting Up for a Bull Trap Before a Major Drop?Yello, Paradisers! Is XLMUSD gearing up for a breakout, or is this just a classic liquidity grab before the next major dump? Let’s break it down.
💎Right now, #XLMUSDT is testing a minor resistance at $0.28464, a level where price has repeatedly struggled to push higher. While there is a possibility of a breakout, the presence of strong liquidity around the unmitigated supply zone at $0.31917 suggests that any move higher could be a trap before a significant drop. If price does manage to break above this resistance, traders should be cautious it’s likely just a liquidity grab before a larger move to the downside.
💎Once the price reaches the unmitigated supply zone, a rejection is expected, leading to a downward move toward the key support zone at $0.22699. This level has historically been a strong demand area where buyers could step in, potentially causing a temporary bounce or consolidation before any further downside.
💎As CRYPTOCAP:XLM moves lower, it’s crucial to watch volume activity. If the decline happens with high volume, it will confirm strong selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a deeper drop. However, if the price approaches $0.22699 with low volume, it could indicate a lack of seller conviction, leading to a short-term bounce before resuming the downtrend.
💎The EMA 200 continues to act as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook. As long as price fails to hold above $0.28464 or gets rejected from the supply zone, the bearish setup remains intact. In that case, a move toward $0.22699 and potentially even $0.19151 becomes highly probable. Watching volume reactions at these key levels will be essential to confirm the next move.
💎The only scenario that could invalidate this bearish setup is a strong close above $0.36172 with high volume. That would signal a potential shift in market structure and could indicate renewed bullish momentum.
Paradisers, patience and precision are key in this market. Let the levels guide you, trade strategically, and stay disciplined. Avoid emotional decisions this market punishes the impatient and rewards those who stay focused.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
Where is the liquidity ?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC COINBASE:BTCEUR
Here I present you the chart that shows the dominance of CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D and the major stablecoins CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D and CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D is in the crypto market. These assets now hold 68% of the total market cap. This means :
" For every $1 coming into crypto, about $0.60 goes into BTC and stablecoins, but only $0.40 goes into thousands of other cryptos."
Will this dominance decrease?
At some point, yes. The fall of BTC and stablecoin domination together with new money coming into the market is often the precursor for an Altseason. If fresh money do not flow into the market, altseason may be underwhelming as funds would merely rotate between BTC and stablecoins in addition to other assets, rather than growing the market.
But why does BTC tend to hold relatively well during market corrections while altcoins face harsh drops?
This is a function of market structure and liquidity distribution, something you can read about in my article "Portfolio Stability" , a must read to better your understanding of crypto market dynamics.
XAUUSD Weekly IdeaGold Prices Surge Amid Inflation Concerns and Increased Tariffs
- Gold prices have formed new ATH. The driving forces behind this ascent include escalating inflation concerns and intensified trade tensions, notably the U.S. administration’s recent increase of tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%.
- These heightened tariffs have amplified fears of rising consumer prices, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold as a traditional hedge against inflation. Complicating the economic landscape, the Federal Reserve faces the delicate task of balancing surging inflation with slowing economic growth, making near-term interest rate cuts increasingly uncertain.
Technical standpoint
A decisive move beyond the $3,167.84 peak could signal further upside targeting $3400 potential, while a drop below this moving average might prompt a reassessment of the bullish outlook.
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 22, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is trading in positive territory around 1.3370 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Concerns over slowing growth in the United States (US) and worries over the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) are driving the US Dollar (USD) lower and creating a tailwind for the major pair.
US President Donald Trump condemned Powell for continuing to maintain a “wait-and-see” monetary policy until there is clarity on how the new tariff policy will affect the economic outlook. In a Truth social media post, Trump warned that the US economy will slow down if Powell doesn't cut interest rates immediately.
Heightened uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China are undermining the U.S. dollar across the board.
On the other hand, softer UK consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for March and global uncertainty paved the way for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at its May meeting. Financial markets are now betting on an interest rate cut at the Bank of England's May meeting, estimating an 86% probability of this happening, according to LSEG data. This, in turn, could affect the Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate against the US Dollar.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3425, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3510
Can Dogecoin break resistance and soar 40% straight to $0.21?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌
All previous targets were nailed ✅! Now, let’s dive into a full analysis of the upcoming price potential for Dogecoin 🔍📈.
Dogecoin, often hailed as a standout asset of the century, is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel—presenting an exceptional opportunity for long-term investors. A potential 40% upside targets the $0.21 level, contingent upon a confirmed breakout above key resistance and the upper boundary of the channel.📚🙌
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
Dogecoin’s in a solid downtrend channel right now, but it’s looking like a great long-term buy with a shot at 40% gains up to $0.21 if it breaks key resistance.📚🎇
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest hours crafting valuable ideas, and your support means everything—feel free to ask questions in the comments! 😊💬
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
US30 - medium to long term opportunity setting upHello,
The US30 futures are forming a bullish pattern, signaling potential upside. The MACD and moving averages align, presenting a compelling opportunity for buyers.
Investors should note President Trump's aggressive push for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to cut interest rates, including threats to dismiss him if he resists. While this rhetoric could unsettle markets, we believe Trump is unlikely to follow through, as markets have likely found a bottom and he would avoid actions that could trigger a downturn.
Technical analysis supports early entry for bold investors, with a stop-loss placed below the recent low. Proceed with caution and good luck.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD (XAU/USD) : Finally time for a correction Technical Analysis:
1.) Elliott Wave 5-wave impulse is complete.
2.) RSI is overbought (typically >70 on most platforms) — this often signals a momentum slowdown and coming reversal.
Thus,
The Market is likely about to shift into corrective mode → A-B-C pullback, as you’ve sketched.
Market Psychology:
At Wave (5) + Overbought RSI, the psychology is typically:
Retail traders rush to buy the top.
Smart money prepares to exit or short.
Trigger events (fundamental catalysts) are only needed for acceleration, not for reversal to start.
BTC, the underlying trend remains bullish above US$70,000 Despite a new peak in global liquidity measured by the M2 monetary aggregate, the Bitcoin price has yet to trigger a real rally. There are several reasons for this lag.
First of all, from a technical analysis point of view, the underlying trend remains bullish above US$70,000
This is the dominant technical factor for the bitcoin price, and the current bullish cycle (the one linked to the spring 2024 halving) remains active as long as the BTC price holds above the all-time high of the previous cycle. A pullback chart hypothesis can be defended as long as the market preserves the major support of the $70K mark.
Chart showing Japanese candles in weekly bitcoin price data with logarithmic scale
Trade diplomacy needs to take over
The increase in M2 money supply worldwide has indeed created an environment conducive to the rise of risky assets such as Bitcoin. However, the current macroeconomic situation, marked by persistent trade tensions and a lack of visibility on economic policies, is holding back investors' risk-taking. Until the major economic powers, notably the United States, China and the European Union, find stable commercial common ground, confidence will remain limited
Time lag between liquidity and financial markets (see Swissquote's April 14 bitcoin analysis, which is linked to this analysis)
Historically, there is an 80 to 110-day lag between the expansion of global liquidity (M2) and its impact on risky assets such as Bitcoin or the S&P 500. The injection of new liquidity first irrigates the real economy before being passed on to the financial markets. This phenomenon explains why Bitcoin has not yet taken full advantage of the current rise in M2, and why a positive effect on BTC can be expected from May and June 2025 onwards.
The market needs to be reassured by the FED's intentions
Federal Reserve (FED) policy plays a central role. A restrictive stance (rate hikes, balance sheet reduction) slows the flow of liquidity into risky assets, while a more accommodative policy would be a catalyst for Bitcoin's recovery. The markets are therefore awaiting the resumption of the US federal funds rate cut. Incidentally, this would be a factor in accelerating the US M2, which plays a crucial role in calculating the global money supply.
What's still missing for a Bitcoin rebound
- A lasting easing of trade tensions and better visibility on global growth.
- Clear signals of more flexible monetary policy from the major central banks, notably the FED.
- The time needed for excess liquidity to spill over into financial markets and trigger increased risk-taking by investors.
Conclusion
The record-breaking rise in global M2 liquidity is a structurally positive factor for Bitcoin, but its effect is lagging and remains conditioned by the macroeconomic and monetary context. If fundamentals improve this spring, a major bullish phase for Bitcoin could be underway in the coming weeks.
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GBP/USD – Breakout Retest Setup🔍 Macro Fundamentals
LEI improving → 86.8 → 90
Exo + LEI score = 78.5 → Healthy trend continuation bias
Exogenous factors: April score 4.5 → positive skew
USD macro weak & dovish, GBP maintaining hawkish tone
📅 Seasonality
📈 GBP bullish from April 24 onward
📉 USD bearish all month
✅ Perfect seasonality window for bullish GBP/USD swing
📊 COT Sentiment
Both GBP and USD = ⚖️ Neutral
→ No positioning pressure, clean technical entry expected
📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart)
Price has broken out of structure, now retesting resistance as support
Structure forming above 1.32312, with a solid upside trend
🔁 Plan: Enter on breakout retest for trend continuation
📥 Entry: 1.32312
⛔ Stop Loss: 1.31581 (below structure)
🎯 Take Profit: Trail or target based on 1.3550–1.3600 zone
🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+
New peak of $3,520! Waiting for gold price to reach.
New peak of $3,520! Six major events this week detonated gold prices, waiting for gold prices to hit
📌 Driving events
1. Geopolitical black swans fly frequently
The tariff war between China, the United States and Europe has escalated comprehensively. The United States has imposed a 104% tariff on China (involving rare earths, semiconductors and other fields), and the European Union has implemented a 21 billion euro retaliatory tariff. The World Bank predicts that global GDP growth may fall by 1.8%. The situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate. After the breakdown of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Israel launched an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, pushing gold to rise by more than 3% in a single day. Historical data shows that the average increase in gold during geopolitical crises can reach more than 20%.
2. The Federal Reserve may change its coach
US President Donald Trump once again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, exacerbating concerns about the independence of the central bank, which has exacerbated uncertainty. Reports that the US government is exploring legal means to remove Powell will only deepen market uneasiness and enhance the attractiveness of gold as a tool to hedge policy and economic instability risks.
3. Global central bank gold purchases hit a record high
In 2024, global central bank gold reserves reached 4,974 tons, and China increased its holdings to 73.7 million ounces for 20 consecutive months (accounting for 4.9%). From January to April 2025, the central bank's net gold purchases exceeded 420 tons, accounting for more than 25% of the annual demand. After China's insurance funds enter the market, it is expected that 255 tons of new demand will be added each year.
4. Gold ETF funds are pouring in
In the first quarter, global gold ETF funds inflow exceeded US$5 billion, and SPDR's daily inflow reached 226.5 tons (a three-year high). The asset management scale of domestic gold ETFs exceeded 101 billion yuan, and the holdings increased to 138 tons. The holdings of post-00 investors surged by 300%.
5. Inflation and stagflation expectations are rising
The US CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, and the core PCE price index hit a 32-year high. The risk of economic "stagflation" strengthened the anti-inflation properties of gold. Citigroup's model shows that if inflation is higher than 3% for a long time, the probability of gold price breaking through $3,500 is over 60%.
6. Technical breakthrough triggers resonance
After spot gold broke through the key resistance level of $3,250, it triggered programmatic buying, and speculative long positions accounted for 67%. COMEX gold futures open interest surged 18%, and the premium of the main Shanghai gold contract expanded to 5 yuan/gram, reflecting the strong bullish sentiment in the market.
📊Comment Analysis
Geopolitical tensions, rising prices, trade tensions, gold prices benefit
💰Strategy Package
Long positions:
Actively participate at 3480-90 points, profit target above 3510-20 points
Short positions:
Actively participate at 3510-00 points, profit target below 3475-65 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
simple chart of what I seeAnyone who knows me know I like to make simple charts that get to the point. Nothing fancy. Just lots of lines. Anyway, I did a ghost feed so you can get an idea of where I think we go from here. I seriously doubt we see any big changes until earnings. Unless China gets their heads out of the you know what, we will trade like this for a little while. I do feel there is hoppe. If NVIDIA has strong earnings , it could be enough push it to new highs. I would use caution. You will see by my chart we started off with an ascending wedge, moved right into a descending wedge and now I feel we will rinse and repeat. All the while ultimately creating new highs and new lows. Anywhere you see horizontal lines is where I see resistance. And yes, I do still think we could drop below 100 again, so get your buy fingers ready :) Not financial advice! Just an old trader's ideas. If we break above 130 before now and earnings, consider it could be a nice ride up!!
USD/JPY in Free Fall: What’s Behind the Break Below 140?🔍 Technical Analysis – USD/JPY
The weekly chart shows a sharp rejection in the macro zone between 155–158, where strong supply is present (highlighted in red). After brushing historical highs, USD/JPY experienced a vertical drop down to 140, decisively breaking through the key zone at 148–146.
Price has now broken the weekly structure and is approaching an area that previously triggered significant rallies (blue zone between 138–141). Monthly support is in danger, with the RSI deeply in oversold territory, but no clear reversal signals just yet.
📊 COT Report – USD Index
Asset Managers: Slight recovery on long positions, but still in neutral territory.
Leverage Money: Increasing net shorts, indicating speculative bets against the dollar.
The divergence between the falling USD Index and speculative positions confirms a growing lack of confidence in the greenback.
📊 COT Report – JPY Futures
Asset Managers: Strong increase in long positions on the yen since December 2024.
Leverage Money: Reinforcing long bias since February 2025.
This confirms that institutional players are accumulating yen, possibly anticipating BoJ interventions or a broader flight-to-safety.
💥 Trade Outlook
USD/JPY is in full bearish breakout mode. If the 140 level breaks decisively, the next technical targets are:
137.00 → historical mid-level support
134.00 → base of the 2023 structure
Keep an eye on the RSI: a bullish divergence with strong volume could trigger a technical rebound. But as long as the overall sentiment remains strongly risk-off, every rally is a selling opportunity.
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Breakout from Pennant PatternGold has broken out of a well-formed Bullish Pennant on the 2-hour chart, supported by strong momentum and a bullish Ichimoku cloud structure. The continuation pattern confirmed the trend following a steep bullish move, and price has now reached the projected target around $3,480.
Fundamentally, gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. As long as price stays above $3,400, the bullish outlook remains intact.
Bias: Bullish
Pattern: Bullish Pennant
Target: $3,480
Support: $3,400 / $3,300
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Always do your own research.
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Will Dry Soil Lift Wheat's Price?Global wheat markets are currently experiencing significant attention as traders and analysts weigh various factors influencing their future price trajectory. Recent activity, particularly in key futures markets, suggests a growing consensus towards potential upward price movements. While numerous elements contribute to the complex dynamics of the grain trade, current indicators highlight specific supply-side concerns as the primary catalyst for this outlook.
A major force behind the anticipation of higher wheat prices stems from challenging agricultural conditions in significant production areas. The United States, a crucial global supplier, faces concerns regarding its winter wheat crop. Persistent dryness across key growing regions is directly impacting crop development and posing a material threat to achieving expected yields. This environmental pressure is viewed by market participants as a fundamental constraint on forthcoming supply.
Further reinforcing these concerns, official assessments of crop health have underscored the severity of the situation. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed a winter wheat condition rating below both the previous year's level and average analyst expectations. This shortfall in anticipated crop health indicates a less robust supply picture than previously factored into market pricing, thereby increasing the likelihood of price appreciation as supply tightens relative to demand, even as other global factors like shifts in export prices from other regions introduce different market crosscurrents.
Waaree Energies Ltd (WRTL)🛒 Buy Recommendation
Buy Zone: ₹2,180–₹2,230
The stock is trading close to a support zone near the 23.6% Fib level (₹2,305) and trying to break out of the falling trendline.
RSI has bounced from the oversold region and is near 50, indicating a possible reversal.
🎯 Targets (Short to Medium-Term)
Target 1 – ₹2,585 (38.2% Fibonacci level)
Target 2 – ₹2,810 (50% Fibonacci level)
Target 3 – ₹3,036 (61.8% Fibonacci level – major resistance)
Swing Target – ₹3,766 (100% Fibonacci level – recent high)
🛑 Stop Loss
SL: ₹2,050 (Below recent swing low & below trendline support)
Risk is around ₹180 from entry; ideal for a reward of 1.5x–3x on targets.
🔎 Additional Technical Signals
Volume: Increasing volume on green candles shows buying interest.
RSI: Forming a bullish divergence and heading upward.
Breakout Point: A daily close above ₹2,305 would confirm a breakout of the trendline and strengthen the bullish case.
for educational purposes only
GOLD holds above 3,400, heading towards 3,500As the US Dollar OANDA:XAUUSD weakened and Sino-US trade tensions raised market concerns about the economic outlook, investor risk aversion increased, pushing gold prices to a record high, breaking through the $3,400/ounce mark and maintaining price action above this level, continuing to target a new all-time high of $3,500.
The US Dollar fell sharply during the day as US President Donald Trump made critical remarks about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, further undermining market confidence in the US economy. A weaker US Dollar typically makes US Dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.
On trade, China accused the United States of abusing the tariff tool and warned other countries not to reach broader economic and trade agreements with the United States at the expense of their own interests. Gold, long seen as a hedge against uncertainty and a highly liquid asset, has risen more than $700 since the start of 2025. Gold broke through $3,300 for the first time last Wednesday and the surge has pushed prices above $100 again in just a few days.
Trump is considering removing Fed Chairman Powell and has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has spoken out publicly against undermining the independence of the central bank.
Trump also made some shocking statements. Trump shared his thoughts on the negotiations on his social media platform Truth Social, saying, "The golden rule of negotiation and success: he who has the gold makes the rules," meaning he who has the gold rules.
This post about gold is quite interesting, considering the market volatility caused by Trump's previous comments on stocks on social media.
Trump also said, "Businessmen who criticize Tariffs are bad at business, but they are really bad at politics. They don't understand or realize that I am the best friend American Capitalism has ever had!"
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to hold above the $3,400 base point and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, which is a positive factor for the gold price's bullish outlook. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is operating in the overbought zone but is not sending any signals indicating a possible downside correction, a sign indicating a possible downside correction is the RSI heading below 80.
In terms of current position, gold still has a bullish outlook in the short term with the price channel as the trend and maintaining activity above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level provides conditions for gold to aim for a new bullish target at $3,482 in the short term, more than the raw price point of $3,500.
During the day, the short-term bullish outlook of gold will be focused again by the following positions.
Support: $3,420 – $3,400
Resistance: $3,482 – $3,500
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3517 - 3515⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3521
→Take Profit 1 3509
↨
→Take Profit 2 3503
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3448 - 3450⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3444
→Take Profit 1 3456
↨
→Take Profit 2 3462
FET/USDT - Trendline Breakout (22.04.2025)The FET/USDT Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.553
2nd Support – 0.516
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