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Fundamental Analysis

4 Winning Years Ahead for Traders Under TrumpOn November 5, 2024, the markets made it loud and clear—they’re excited about Donald J. Trump’s return to office. Stocks, the dollar, and other key assets all responded with strong moves that reflect investor confidence in what his policies might bring. Compare this to the last few years under Biden, and the difference is striking. The market barely budged during Biden’s presidency; even when he contracted COVID-19, it was business as usual. With Trump back, though, there’s an undeniable surge of optimism. Let’s look at what’s happening across the major assets and what it could mean for us traders in the days ahead. S&P 500 (SPX) The S&P 500 spiked from $5,704 to $6,018 on election night—a powerful rally that signals investor optimism. It seems the market is embracing Trump’s expected focus on tax cuts and pro-business policies. This kind of jump doesn’t happen without a reason; investors are clearly betting that Trump’s return will be good for corporate America and, by extension, for the economy. Gold (XAU/USD) In times of uncertainty, gold usually rallies as investors look for safe havens. But on election night, we saw the opposite: XAU/USD dropped from $2,750 to $2,643 per troy ounce. This decline tells us that investors feel less inclined to hedge their bets with gold, opting instead for assets tied to economic growth. When people pull out of safe havens, it's often a sign they’re feeling pretty good about what’s ahead. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar had its own rally, with the DXY climbing from 103.3 to 105.4. This spike reflects confidence in the U.S. economy’s potential under Trump’s leadership. With the dollar gaining strength, it’s clear that investors expect strong economic fundamentals and possibly higher interest rates—both of which could keep the dollar in demand. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) The Dow also rallied, jumping from $41,649 to $44,173. This boost is especially interesting because it reflects optimism in sectors like manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure—industries Trump has supported in the past. Investors are likely betting on policy moves that could provide a lift to U.S. industries, potentially driving corporate profits higher. WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Looking forward, I’m expecting WTI prices to come under pressure as Trump likely revisits his focus on domestic oil production. If he revives the “drill, baby, drill” approach, we could see supply levels increase, which would weigh on prices. This potential shift in energy policy is something to keep an eye on, as it could create fresh trading opportunities. The Big Picture From stocks to the dollar, the market’s reaction seems to signal that Trump’s return is seen as positive for growth and stability. Reflecting on his previous term, I remember trading seemed almost simpler—beyond economic reports, following Trump’s statements (especially on Twitter) often gave insight into market sentiment. We might be looking at a similar environment now. Final Thoughts for Traders Trump’s re-election sets the stage for market dynamics we’ve seen before, with a familiar blend of optimism and volatility. For traders, this could mean more straightforward strategies, particularly by keeping an eye on policy shifts and economic indicators. With Trump’s leadership back in play, I believe the next four years could be some of the best trading years we’ve seen. Whether you’re in stocks, commodities, or forex, it’s clear the market is responding—and as traders, there’s a lot we can take away from that.
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldCartel
23
Retrace for Bitcoin before going up moreAfter Bitcoin recently achieved a new all-time high, we are now entering a period where the market often takes a step back to consolidate. Following such monumental price increases, it’s typical for Bitcoin to experience a temporary pullback or cooling-off phase, which is a natural and necessary part of its growth cycle. This phase allows the price to stabilize, setting up a more sustainable foundation for future increases. As we head into the weekend, it’s worth noting that weekend trading often brings more volatility due to lower trading volumes. With fewer institutional players active, the market can see sharper fluctuations, which makes it more likely for Bitcoin to experience a temporary decline. This dip provides an opportunity for consolidation, allowing new levels of support to form as some traders take profits and others prepare for the next upward movement. Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated a pattern of retracing after hitting record highs. These pullbacks don’t signal weakness but rather reflect healthy market behavior as investors recalibrate and the market digests the recent gains. During these brief retracements, the market can gather fresh momentum for future growth. In the broader perspective, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong. Demand from both institutional and retail investors, concerns about inflation, and Bitcoin’s limited supply all support its long-term bullish outlook. A temporary dip simply allows more investors to enter at a more attractive price point, adding strength to the next wave of buying. In summary, a brief pullback after an all-time high is a common occurrence in the market. As we move into the weekend, a minor retrace could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next leg up by building a stronger base. For those with a long-term perspective, this dip may present an ideal opportunity to accumulate more, while traders could find opportunities in short-term volatility. A short-term pause doesn’t change the larger picture; it simply prepares the market for the next chapter in Bitcoin’s journey upward.
Short
by Gollem_
1
Red Pill of Trading: A Glimpse into Hidden Market SetupsIn the depths of the market matrix, few can see beyond surface price action. The Commitment of Traders data is a revelation, a signal that speaks to those ready to see the true forces at work. This strategy has uncovered potent setups across currencies, energies, grains, and metals—all primed for major moves. But I cannot offer this knowledge freely. Information that comes cheap is rarely valued. True insight, like the red pill, demands a commitment. A choice to see beyond the veil. Today, I offer you just a glimpse—one of many market truths revealed by this strategy. The Canadian Dollar. The CAD is positioned for longs. But let me be clear: we don’t blindly long this market. Instead, we wait, watching for a confirmed entry trigger on the daily timeframe. Yet everything points towards a powerful move. Commercials are positioned extremely long relative to the last 26 weeks, and approaching levels we last saw in August—right before CAD surged. Open interest has been increasing, and when OI increases, we ask ourselves: "Who is causing this open interest increase?". In this case, it is increasing while the Commercials are getting very long, which is bullish. Last week, investment advisor sentiment hit a bearish extreme, a contrarian signal that lingers now into this week. CAD is undervalued against both gold and treasuries—another indication of buy potential. Two weeks ago, we saw ADX drop below 20, while commercials heavily increased their longs, creating a bullish divergence that grows with each new indicator. Supplementary indicators stand by this setup: Insider Accumulation, Stochastics, %R, even a bullish momentum divergence is setting up, though it’s not yet confirmed. And this is just the beginning. If you want to uncover the full array of setups across markets this week and next, to see the real truth behind the moves, then take the red pill. Reach out. This is an opportunity, a privilege to step beyond mere price action and learn the market’s deepest secrets. Inquire with me, and together, we’ll peel back the layers of the matrix. The choice is yours.
CME:6CZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
1
A capture of inflation, dilution and stimulus /2024As we see by the chart, we had a series of events mostly around mega-stimulus for Covid and a massive dilution of currency as triggering events. Inflation rose and is now back down close to the desirable 2% inflation. We don't want prices to go back to where they were, that is deflation and is not healthy for an economy. We want prices to stay near the same year after year with modest inflation. When inflation rises too fast, we increase interest rates to slow down spending, to reduce inflation. The best we can do is work on wage growth to accommodate the inflation from our past years while maintaining modest inflation. At 2.4% inflation currently, there really is pretty much nothing to fix anymore, we just need to keep it around where it is, a little lower really and work on modest wage growth. Looking at this data, it really looks like the vast majority of the culpability of that inflation we had came from 2020, one of the single worst years financially as a country with inflation starting to rise immediately in 2021, and exacerbated some in 2021. Looking at this chart, there is a tangible possibility that we see >10% inflation by 2027 Here is the M2 money supply chart:
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by EncryptShawn
BTC Breakout! Next Target $81500Bitcoin is in price discovery again 1. Resistance Breakout: After months of consolidation, BTC has surged past the previous ATH resistance, indicating strong buyer interest. This breakout shows potential for a sustained rally. 2. Fibonacci Extension Levels: Using the Fibonacci extension from recent lows, the next major resistance aligns near $81,500. This target matches up with historical support and resistance flips, where price action has shown sensitivity. 3. Volume Confirmation: We’re seeing an uptick in buying volume, which supports the breakout. A consistent volume surge often confirms trend continuation. 4. RSI Momentum: On the daily and weekly charts, RSI remains in bullish territory but hasn’t reached overbought conditions yet, leaving room for further upside. 5. Macro Sentiment: With institutional interest and macroeconomic conditions favoring Bitcoin, sentiment continues to support BTC’s rally. Cautionary Note: Always monitor for potential pullbacks to support zones. Keep an eye on $75,000 as a potential retracement level before the next leg up. Do your own research! This is not financial advice. 🛠️ Let’s keep an eye on the price action and see if BTC can reach that next target!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by artashesk
BITCOIN - this is just the beginning!We had previously predicted that Trump would win the US elections, and we talked about how positive that would be and how this coincided with the rise of Bitcoin and the start of the bull market in a detailed scenario, and it happened precisely. Many are asking about currencies now and are worried about entering after this recent rise You should know that this market has stages Bitcoin Dominance still high Which means that Bitcoin gave a small portion of liquidity to currencies this is chart for BTC dominance and just imagine if this huge rising wedge breakdown? so iam extremly bullish this time and should nknow ALTseason didn't start yet! If you enter the chart of any coin, you will find that it is still at the bottom I see that there are many opportunities and you will easily find from this region many currencies made x5, x10 easly. What we need in the coming days is for Bitcoin to make a temporary peak, then correct, then move sideways, decline in BTC dominance for BTC i see it make a NEW ATH after more than 250days of accumulation any small correction in BTC is a positive sign for ALTS
Long
by ceciliones
2
Falling wedge on weekly bullish factors TA and FundKaspa appears poised for a potential Coinbase listing, with a textbook falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart hinting at a bullish reversal as oscillators reset and momentum builds. As a fair-launch project, Kaspa maintains decentralization by having coins mined or traded openly. With KRC-20 sell pressure seemingly exhausted, bearish momentum has faded. Kaspa's robust Layer-1 tech stack and 10 BPS foundation are now established, strategically setting the stage for showcasing its scalable infrastructure and the introduction of smart contracts, aligning with a well-timed expansion strategy.
Long
by chartzilla
AAVE COIN LONG IDEA - AAVE ALTCOIN SWING LONGAAVE is a coin I monitored closely during Summer 2024. While most altcoins were making new lows, AAVE was accumulating and showed resilience, which suggested to me that it might outperform others in the 2024-2025 altcoin bull season. Technical Analysis: Price accumulated within the monthly demand zone throughout Summer 2024. It finally took off, breaking the weekly structure and creating strong bullish momentum on the weekly and daily charts. Price broke the bearish trendline with strong momentum and created a daily demand zone below. I’d like to see price retrace into the daily demand, hit the maximum discount area, possibly test the trendline, and then take off toward the target. As always, look for lower time frame confirmations within the entry zone before initiating the trade. Stop loss: $110 Target: $261
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
Coca Cola - A Clear Trading Setup!Coca Cola ( NYSE:KO ) will provide a textbook setup soon: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Coca Cola is one of these "under the radar" stocks which is just trending higher and higher but nobody is really paying attention. However currently Coca Cola is retesting a resistance trendline of the governing rising channel pattern so a short term retracement is quite likely. Levels to watch: $72, $65 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NYSE:KOLong
by basictradingtv
10
UMAC - US Drone Company - Massive Growth Potential!Unusual Machines, Inc. is a development stage technology company, which engages in the provision of drone solutions with a focus on first-person view (FPV) technology. It offers products to entertainment, recreation, and competitive racing industries. The company was founded on July 11, 2019, and is headquartered in Orlando, FL. This is a high risk idea - keep this in mind! Shares float: 4.755M Recent Passive Stake of 450 000 shares on August 1, 2024 Breakout Zone: $2.20 - 2.30 Action: If the stock breaks above this area with strong volume, it might signal a continuation of the upward trend. Overall Market Sentiment: Currently, the market seems to be in a correction phase. It’s crucial to consider this sentiment when making trading decisions. Resistance Points: $2.30 $2.80 $3.30 $3.70 Surpassing these levels could signal a positive trend. Consider taking profits at these stages to realize gains. Trading Strategy: Take Profit (TP): Set a target at $4.40 after we might forming a cup and handle pattern with a second target at $8.00 (highly speculative) Stop Loss (SL): Set at under $1.50 or if you want to give some more room under $1.00 to mitigate potential losses. Chart Analysis: Please refer to the attached chart for detailed analysis of price trends and movements. Trading Advisory: Exercise caution and consider market conditions and your own risk tolerance when trading. It's advisable to conduct comprehensive research or consult with a financial advisor before engaging in trading activities. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
AMEX:UMACLong
by meitshels_smell_trades
SOFI - Great long-term playSoFi is a financial-services company that was founded in 2011 and is based in San Francisco. Initially known for its student loan refinancing business, the company has expanded its product offerings to include personal loans, credit cards, mortgages, investment accounts, banking services, and financial planning. The company intends to be a one-stop shop for its clients' finances and operates solely through its mobile app and website. Through its acquisition of Galileo in 2020, the company also offers payment and account services for debit cards and digital banking. Despite reporting impressive results for the first and the second quarter, SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) remains a beaten-down stock. This is an opportunity for investors to buy the dip. The management has taken a conservative route towards growth and is moving from unsecured loans to secured loans which may show slow growth in the near term but could be beneficial in the long-term. These days, SoFi Technologies offers a one-stop solution for everything finance and continues to see high member growth. It ended the second quarter with 8.8 million members, a 41% YOY jump. SoFi’s revenue came in at a record $599 million, up 22% YOY and the net income was $17 million, an impressive shift from the loss in the prior period. Its financial services segment revenue soared 80% and generated $176.1 million. This was also the company’s third consecutive quarter of profitability and I think this momentum is set to continue. When SoFi reported its first quarterly profit, the market was unsure whether it would be able to sustain it, however, it will soon report one full year of profitability. As such, I think the company has managed to reach a place where investors can stop worrying about the profitability or the member growth. It is aiming for a revenue of $625 to $645 million for the third quarter. Trading at $8, SOFI stock is an ideal bet for the long-term investor to double their money. This is more of a long-term idea - keep this in mind! Short float: 17.95% Lots of recent block buys: Friday August 23, 2024 Block Trade: SOFI 1.2M @ $7.44 below bid of 7.51 Thursday August 22, 2024 Block Trade: SOFI 1.2M @ $7.254 above ask of 7.2 Tuesday August 20, 2024 Block Trade: SOFI 1.3M @ $7.389 above ask of 7.37 Block Trade: SOFI 960,510 @ $7.389 above ask of 7.37 Block Trade: SOFI 1.5M @ $7.388 above ask of 7.37 Monday August 19, 2024 Block Trade: SOFI 569,589 @ $7.46 above ask of 7.45 Monday August 5, 2024 Block Trade: SOFI 719,500 @ $6.59 below bid of 6.6 Block Trade: SOFI 719,500 @ $6.61 at the ask Friday August 2, 2024 Block Trade: SOFI 672,000 @ $6.691 below bid of 6.72 Todays News: SoFi Technologies, Inc. SOFI shares are trading higher Thursday. The United States Supreme Court declined to revive the Biden administration’s student debt relief plan Wednesday. Shares of student loan servicers including SoFi are trading higher following the court's decision. The court's denial is a potentially positive development for SoFi, as it stood to lose revenue from interest payments and loan origination fees if student loan forgiveness or deferment resulted from the SAVE plan. The Details: The Supreme Court rejected a Biden administration plea Wednesday that sought to revive the Savings on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan to provide relief to borrowers with federal student loan debt. The court denied an emergency request filed by the administration to lift a nationwide injunction imposed by an appeals court. Breakout Zone: $8.30 Action: If the stock breaks above this area with strong volume, it might signal a continuation of the upward trend. Overall Market Sentiment: Currently, the market seems to be in a correction phase. It’s crucial to consider this sentiment when making trading decisions. Resistance Points: $9.00 $10.00 $11.50 $14.00 Surpassing these levels could signal a positive trend. Consider taking profits at these stages to realize gains. Trading Strategy: Take Profit (TP): Set a target at $17.00 Stop Loss (SL): Set at under $6.50 to mitigate potential losses. Chart Analysis: Please refer to the attached chart for detailed analysis of price trends and movements. Trading Advisory: Exercise caution and consider market conditions and your own risk tolerance when trading. It's advisable to conduct comprehensive research or consult with a financial advisor before engaging in trading activities. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by meitshels_smell_trades
3