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Fundamental Analysis

GOLD (XAU/USD) : Finally time for a correction Technical Analysis: 1.) Elliott Wave 5-wave impulse is complete. 2.) RSI is overbought (typically >70 on most platforms) — this often signals a momentum slowdown and coming reversal. Thus, The Market is likely about to shift into corrective mode → A-B-C pullback, as you’ve sketched. Market Psychology: At Wave (5) + Overbought RSI, the psychology is typically: Retail traders rush to buy the top. Smart money prepares to exit or short. Trigger events (fundamental catalysts) are only needed for acceleration, not for reversal to start.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ghostysellsdonkeys
2
BTC, the underlying trend remains bullish above US$70,000 Despite a new peak in global liquidity measured by the M2 monetary aggregate, the Bitcoin price has yet to trigger a real rally. There are several reasons for this lag. First of all, from a technical analysis point of view, the underlying trend remains bullish above US$70,000 This is the dominant technical factor for the bitcoin price, and the current bullish cycle (the one linked to the spring 2024 halving) remains active as long as the BTC price holds above the all-time high of the previous cycle. A pullback chart hypothesis can be defended as long as the market preserves the major support of the $70K mark. Chart showing Japanese candles in weekly bitcoin price data with logarithmic scale Trade diplomacy needs to take over The increase in M2 money supply worldwide has indeed created an environment conducive to the rise of risky assets such as Bitcoin. However, the current macroeconomic situation, marked by persistent trade tensions and a lack of visibility on economic policies, is holding back investors' risk-taking. Until the major economic powers, notably the United States, China and the European Union, find stable commercial common ground, confidence will remain limited Time lag between liquidity and financial markets (see Swissquote's April 14 bitcoin analysis, which is linked to this analysis) Historically, there is an 80 to 110-day lag between the expansion of global liquidity (M2) and its impact on risky assets such as Bitcoin or the S&P 500. The injection of new liquidity first irrigates the real economy before being passed on to the financial markets. This phenomenon explains why Bitcoin has not yet taken full advantage of the current rise in M2, and why a positive effect on BTC can be expected from May and June 2025 onwards. The market needs to be reassured by the FED's intentions Federal Reserve (FED) policy plays a central role. A restrictive stance (rate hikes, balance sheet reduction) slows the flow of liquidity into risky assets, while a more accommodative policy would be a catalyst for Bitcoin's recovery. The markets are therefore awaiting the resumption of the US federal funds rate cut. Incidentally, this would be a factor in accelerating the US M2, which plays a crucial role in calculating the global money supply. What's still missing for a Bitcoin rebound - A lasting easing of trade tensions and better visibility on global growth. - Clear signals of more flexible monetary policy from the major central banks, notably the FED. - The time needed for excess liquidity to spill over into financial markets and trigger increased risk-taking by investors. Conclusion The record-breaking rise in global M2 liquidity is a structurally positive factor for Bitcoin, but its effect is lagging and remains conditioned by the macroeconomic and monetary context. If fundamentals improve this spring, a major bullish phase for Bitcoin could be underway in the coming weeks. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Swissquote
1
GBP/USD – Breakout Retest Setup🔍 Macro Fundamentals LEI improving → 86.8 → 90 Exo + LEI score = 78.5 → Healthy trend continuation bias Exogenous factors: April score 4.5 → positive skew USD macro weak & dovish, GBP maintaining hawkish tone 📅 Seasonality 📈 GBP bullish from April 24 onward 📉 USD bearish all month ✅ Perfect seasonality window for bullish GBP/USD swing 📊 COT Sentiment Both GBP and USD = ⚖️ Neutral → No positioning pressure, clean technical entry expected 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken out of structure, now retesting resistance as support Structure forming above 1.32312, with a solid upside trend 🔁 Plan: Enter on breakout retest for trend continuation 📥 Entry: 1.32312 ⛔ Stop Loss: 1.31581 (below structure) 🎯 Take Profit: Trail or target based on 1.3550–1.3600 zone 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+
Long
by wajahatarif
New peak of $3,520! Waiting for gold price to reach. New peak of $3,520! Six major events this week detonated gold prices, waiting for gold prices to hit 📌 Driving events 1. Geopolitical black swans fly frequently The tariff war between China, the United States and Europe has escalated comprehensively. The United States has imposed a 104% tariff on China (involving rare earths, semiconductors and other fields), and the European Union has implemented a 21 billion euro retaliatory tariff. The World Bank predicts that global GDP growth may fall by 1.8%. The situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate. After the breakdown of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Israel launched an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, pushing gold to rise by more than 3% in a single day. Historical data shows that the average increase in gold during geopolitical crises can reach more than 20%. 2. The Federal Reserve may change its coach US President Donald Trump once again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, exacerbating concerns about the independence of the central bank, which has exacerbated uncertainty. Reports that the US government is exploring legal means to remove Powell will only deepen market uneasiness and enhance the attractiveness of gold as a tool to hedge policy and economic instability risks. 3. Global central bank gold purchases hit a record high In 2024, global central bank gold reserves reached 4,974 tons, and China increased its holdings to 73.7 million ounces for 20 consecutive months (accounting for 4.9%). From January to April 2025, the central bank's net gold purchases exceeded 420 tons, accounting for more than 25% of the annual demand. After China's insurance funds enter the market, it is expected that 255 tons of new demand will be added each year. 4. Gold ETF funds are pouring in In the first quarter, global gold ETF funds inflow exceeded US$5 billion, and SPDR's daily inflow reached 226.5 tons (a three-year high). The asset management scale of domestic gold ETFs exceeded 101 billion yuan, and the holdings increased to 138 tons. The holdings of post-00 investors surged by 300%. 5. Inflation and stagflation expectations are rising The US CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, and the core PCE price index hit a 32-year high. The risk of economic "stagflation" strengthened the anti-inflation properties of gold. Citigroup's model shows that if inflation is higher than 3% for a long time, the probability of gold price breaking through $3,500 is over 60%. 6. Technical breakthrough triggers resonance After spot gold broke through the key resistance level of $3,250, it triggered programmatic buying, and speculative long positions accounted for 67%. COMEX gold futures open interest surged 18%, and the premium of the main Shanghai gold contract expanded to 5 yuan/gram, reflecting the strong bullish sentiment in the market. 📊Comment Analysis Geopolitical tensions, rising prices, trade tensions, gold prices benefit 💰Strategy Package Long positions: Actively participate at 3480-90 points, profit target above 3510-20 points Short positions: Actively participate at 3510-00 points, profit target below 3475-65 points ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the fund account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
2
simple chart of what I seeAnyone who knows me know I like to make simple charts that get to the point. Nothing fancy. Just lots of lines. Anyway, I did a ghost feed so you can get an idea of where I think we go from here. I seriously doubt we see any big changes until earnings. Unless China gets their heads out of the you know what, we will trade like this for a little while. I do feel there is hoppe. If NVIDIA has strong earnings , it could be enough push it to new highs. I would use caution. You will see by my chart we started off with an ascending wedge, moved right into a descending wedge and now I feel we will rinse and repeat. All the while ultimately creating new highs and new lows. Anywhere you see horizontal lines is where I see resistance. And yes, I do still think we could drop below 100 again, so get your buy fingers ready :) Not financial advice! Just an old trader's ideas. If we break above 130 before now and earnings, consider it could be a nice ride up!!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Jerseyboy79
1
USD/JPY in Free Fall: What’s Behind the Break Below 140?🔍 Technical Analysis – USD/JPY The weekly chart shows a sharp rejection in the macro zone between 155–158, where strong supply is present (highlighted in red). After brushing historical highs, USD/JPY experienced a vertical drop down to 140, decisively breaking through the key zone at 148–146. Price has now broken the weekly structure and is approaching an area that previously triggered significant rallies (blue zone between 138–141). Monthly support is in danger, with the RSI deeply in oversold territory, but no clear reversal signals just yet. 📊 COT Report – USD Index Asset Managers: Slight recovery on long positions, but still in neutral territory. Leverage Money: Increasing net shorts, indicating speculative bets against the dollar. The divergence between the falling USD Index and speculative positions confirms a growing lack of confidence in the greenback. 📊 COT Report – JPY Futures Asset Managers: Strong increase in long positions on the yen since December 2024. Leverage Money: Reinforcing long bias since February 2025. This confirms that institutional players are accumulating yen, possibly anticipating BoJ interventions or a broader flight-to-safety. 💥 Trade Outlook USD/JPY is in full bearish breakout mode. If the 140 level breaks decisively, the next technical targets are: 137.00 → historical mid-level support 134.00 → base of the 2023 structure Keep an eye on the RSI: a bullish divergence with strong volume could trigger a technical rebound. But as long as the overall sentiment remains strongly risk-off, every rally is a selling opportunity.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Breakout from Pennant PatternGold has broken out of a well-formed Bullish Pennant on the 2-hour chart, supported by strong momentum and a bullish Ichimoku cloud structure. The continuation pattern confirmed the trend following a steep bullish move, and price has now reached the projected target around $3,480. Fundamentally, gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. As long as price stays above $3,400, the bullish outlook remains intact. Bias: Bullish Pattern: Bullish Pennant Target: $3,480 Support: $3,400 / $3,300 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Always do your own research. If you found this analysis helpful, please support with a like and follow for more trading ideas and updates. Your support is greatly appreciated!
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Traders_Team
Will Dry Soil Lift Wheat's Price?Global wheat markets are currently experiencing significant attention as traders and analysts weigh various factors influencing their future price trajectory. Recent activity, particularly in key futures markets, suggests a growing consensus towards potential upward price movements. While numerous elements contribute to the complex dynamics of the grain trade, current indicators highlight specific supply-side concerns as the primary catalyst for this outlook. A major force behind the anticipation of higher wheat prices stems from challenging agricultural conditions in significant production areas. The United States, a crucial global supplier, faces concerns regarding its winter wheat crop. Persistent dryness across key growing regions is directly impacting crop development and posing a material threat to achieving expected yields. This environmental pressure is viewed by market participants as a fundamental constraint on forthcoming supply. Further reinforcing these concerns, official assessments of crop health have underscored the severity of the situation. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed a winter wheat condition rating below both the previous year's level and average analyst expectations. This shortfall in anticipated crop health indicates a less robust supply picture than previously factored into market pricing, thereby increasing the likelihood of price appreciation as supply tightens relative to demand, even as other global factors like shifts in export prices from other regions introduce different market crosscurrents.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by UDIS_View
Waaree Energies Ltd (WRTL)🛒 Buy Recommendation Buy Zone: ₹2,180–₹2,230 The stock is trading close to a support zone near the 23.6% Fib level (₹2,305) and trying to break out of the falling trendline. RSI has bounced from the oversold region and is near 50, indicating a possible reversal. 🎯 Targets (Short to Medium-Term) Target 1 – ₹2,585 (38.2% Fibonacci level) Target 2 – ₹2,810 (50% Fibonacci level) Target 3 – ₹3,036 (61.8% Fibonacci level – major resistance) Swing Target – ₹3,766 (100% Fibonacci level – recent high) 🛑 Stop Loss SL: ₹2,050 (Below recent swing low & below trendline support) Risk is around ₹180 from entry; ideal for a reward of 1.5x–3x on targets. 🔎 Additional Technical Signals Volume: Increasing volume on green candles shows buying interest. RSI: Forming a bullish divergence and heading upward. Breakout Point: A daily close above ₹2,305 would confirm a breakout of the trendline and strengthen the bullish case. for educational purposes only
NSE:WAAREEENERLong
by rmhetre15
GOLD holds above 3,400, heading towards 3,500As the US Dollar OANDA:XAUUSD weakened and Sino-US trade tensions raised market concerns about the economic outlook, investor risk aversion increased, pushing gold prices to a record high, breaking through the $3,400/ounce mark and maintaining price action above this level, continuing to target a new all-time high of $3,500. The US Dollar fell sharply during the day as US President Donald Trump made critical remarks about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, further undermining market confidence in the US economy. A weaker US Dollar typically makes US Dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. On trade, China accused the United States of abusing the tariff tool and warned other countries not to reach broader economic and trade agreements with the United States at the expense of their own interests. Gold, long seen as a hedge against uncertainty and a highly liquid asset, has risen more than $700 since the start of 2025. Gold broke through $3,300 for the first time last Wednesday and the surge has pushed prices above $100 again in just a few days. Trump is considering removing Fed Chairman Powell and has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has spoken out publicly against undermining the independence of the central bank. Trump also made some shocking statements. Trump shared his thoughts on the negotiations on his social media platform Truth Social, saying, "The golden rule of negotiation and success: he who has the gold makes the rules," meaning he who has the gold rules. This post about gold is quite interesting, considering the market volatility caused by Trump's previous comments on stocks on social media. Trump also said, "Businessmen who criticize Tariffs are bad at business, but they are really bad at politics. They don't understand or realize that I am the best friend American Capitalism has ever had!" Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to hold above the $3,400 base point and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, which is a positive factor for the gold price's bullish outlook. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is operating in the overbought zone but is not sending any signals indicating a possible downside correction, a sign indicating a possible downside correction is the RSI heading below 80. In terms of current position, gold still has a bullish outlook in the short term with the price channel as the trend and maintaining activity above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level provides conditions for gold to aim for a new bullish target at $3,482 in the short term, more than the raw price point of $3,500. During the day, the short-term bullish outlook of gold will be focused again by the following positions. Support: $3,420 – $3,400 Resistance: $3,482 – $3,500 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3517 - 3515⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3521 →Take Profit 1 3509 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3503 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3448 - 3450⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3444 →Take Profit 1 3456 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3462
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
FET/USDT - Trendline Breakout (22.04.2025)The FET/USDT Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.553 2nd Support – 0.516 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
Short term sizable correction before new highsI haven't updated my cattle idea in awhile, but it's been trading like I figured, since Feb. We've now hit multiple technical targets in this pocket up here. I think there's a good chance we get a decent correction from here down to the 198-197 area, although it could easily retrace down lower, more violent and sharp with fund long covering and momentum. Long term I am still bullish with my original idea back at the beginning of the year, and think we can get that 217-218 target in the fall. My last idea this is continuing:
CME:LE1!Short
by farmerisland
GBP/USD bulls to mitigate @1.32500 handle as we start the month with trade wars which the cable possibly will not be part of, optimism has grown around a potential Ukraine peace plan reinforcing Britain’s support. Sterling also has gained strength from the expectations that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden highlighted that persistent wage pressures could keep inflation above target, though he noted future rate cuts may not be gradual. This outlook, combined with geopolitical developments, has boosted investor confidence in the pound and so am hoping for a retest to my fair value price @ 1.27000 handle before the bulls comes in and drives the price to my unmitigated zone 1st Tp @1.32500
Long
by que
USD/CAD - Channel Pattern (22.04.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3771 2nd Support – 1.3745 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
GOLD TODAY OUTLOOKXAU/USD – 30-Minute Technical Setup Gold has been gliding upward, respecting a clean ascending structure, printing higher highs with strength. But as price taps into the $3,242–$3,267 supply zone, momentum begins to fade. A potential rejection here signals a structural shift. If the trendline breaks, we could see a clean move down toward the $3,176 demand zone, with $3,203 acting as soft interim support. This setup reflects precision and patience , anticipating a transition from bullish strength to calculated bearish correction, with a balanced risk-to-reward approach. Confirmation is very important. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis. #XAUUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal