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Fundamental Analysis

Trade Idea: Buy GBP/USD (Short-Term Opportunity)### **📈 Trade Idea: Buy GBP/USD (Short-Term Opportunity)** **Bias:** 🔼 Bullish **Timeframe:** 🕒 Short-Term (few days to a couple of weeks) --- ### **💡 Why Buy GBP/USD?** **🇺🇸 USD – U.S. Dollar:** * **Real yields dropping, Fed turning cautious** → *📉 Less return = less demand for USD. Dovish Fed tone opens the door for weakness.* * **Fund managers are heavily short USD** → *📊 Big bearish positioning = market already leaning against the dollar.* * **Inflation sticky, but no urgency to hike** → *🔥 Keeps Fed cautious, not aggressive — supports slow USD drift lower.* * **Limited safe-haven demand despite global tensions** → *🕊️ Markets are no longer rushing to the dollar during global stress — a shift in behavior.* * **Sentiment: Bearish** → *📉 USD remains under pressure unless inflation re-surges or Fed surprises hawkishly.* --- **🇬🇧 GBP – British Pound:** * **Yes, UK data is soft — but so is the USD** → *⚖️ It’s a relative game. GBP has room to bounce if risk sentiment holds.* * **BoE expected to cut in August — but no panic** → *🏦 The easing path is gradual. GBP isn’t collapsing — markets had time to price this in.* * **GBP oversold and holding 1.2660 support** → *🛑 Price structure suggests buyers are defending key levels.* * **Weak USD = GBP breathing room** → *💨 Even a soft pound can float when the dollar is sinking.* * **Sentiment: Mildly bearish, but stabilizing** → *📈 GBP might not be strong — but it’s showing signs of bottoming.* --- ### **🔍 Outlook:** **This is a dollar-weakness play more than a pound-strength one.** If GBP/USD holds above 1.2660, there’s room to ride a slow grind toward 1.2800+. Risk is limited unless July CPI surprises hawkishly or BoE turns dramatically dovish. ---
Short
by Wainainarobert
Gold (XAUUSD) – 1H Wave Structure Projection 🟩 Gold (XAUUSD) – 1H Wave Structure Projection In this analysis, I am presenting a potential Elliott Wave structure unfolding on the 1-hour timeframe for Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD), traded on OANDA. 🔹 Wave Count Outlook We are anticipating a classic 5-wave bullish impulse structure, currently developing from the recent low near 3,340.243. Here’s the projected wave progression: 1️⃣ Wave 1: Initial push from recent support 2️⃣ Wave 2: Healthy correction holding above 3,340.243 3️⃣ Wave 3: Expected breakout above 3,440.906 with momentum 4️⃣ Wave 4: Shallow retracement maintaining bullish structure 5️⃣ Wave 5: Final rally aiming toward the resistance zone at 3,520.034 and potentially 3,561.896 📈 Key Levels to Watch: • Support: 3,340.243 / 3,366.135 • Mid-Resistance: 3,399.044 / 3,440.906 • Targets: 3,487.124, 3,520.034, and extended resistance at 3,561.896 🧠 Strategy Insight: This structure may provide scalp-to-swing opportunities, with confirmations along wave 3 and wave 5 breakouts. Bullish bias remains valid as long as price stays above 3,340.243. 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and confirm with your strategy before entering any position.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wreks
How to use $VIX as a Family Investor?VIX Zones for Family Investors (Fortnightly Review) 1. BTFD Zone (Buy the Fear Dip): • VIX above 22 • This is a buying opportunity. The higher the VIX, the greater the market fear—take advantage if you have capital available. 2. Cruise Control Zone: • VIX between 18 and 22 • Do nothing. No buying or selling—just stick to your routine and monitor the market. 3. Profit-Taking Zone: • VIX below 18 • Consider taking profits from higher-volatility stocks and reallocating to more defensive, large-cap stocks. This helps protect your gains in case of a sudden market drop.
CBOE:VIX
by Father3Jobs
1
Why Oil Stays Bullish: Israel-Iran and the APMMCurrent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have precipitated significant volatility in global oil markets. This study analyzes the immediate and medium-term impacts of the conflict on oil prices utilizing the Advanced Petroleum Market Model (APMM), a multifactorial fundamental analysis framework. The analysis reveals that both robust supply fundamentals and geopolitical risk premiums are currently supporting oil prices at elevated levels. 1. Introduction Global energy markets are experiencing upward pressure from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Israeli military actions against Iranian targets have triggered immediate oil price responses, with Brent crude rising up to 10% and reaching the highest levels since January 2024 (Al Jazeera, 2024). The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil trade flows, remains central to geopolitical risk pricing in oil markets (CNBC, 2024). 2. Current APMM Market Assessment The Advanced Petroleum Market Model currently indicates a Bullish (Weak) regime with a composite score of 69.1 and a rising trend. Supply indicators are bullish, inventory and demand are neutral. The model's adaptive status shows it is successfully adjusting to current market conditions. 3. Market and Model-Based Scenario Analysis - Brent Crude: 5-7% increase to over $87/barrel - WTI Crude: 6% daily gain - Geopolitical Risk Premium: $8-12/barrel (Goldman Sachs, 2024) The APMM's current reading suggests oil markets are in a "Fundamental Support Regime" reinforced by geopolitical risk premiums. Geopolitical uncertainty is inherently bullish for oil prices as it increases supply disruption risks and drives precautionary demand. Scenario Probabilities - Base Scenario (65%): Bullish (Weak) regime persists, prices stabilize at $75-85/barrel - Escalation (25%): Strong Bullish regime, prices at $85-95/barrel - Extreme (10%): Extreme Bullish regime, prices above $100/barrel 4. Long-term and Policy Implications - Diversification: Importers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern oil - Strategic Reserves: Governments reconsider reserve strategies - Energy Transition: Geopolitical risks strengthen investments in renewables 5. Conclusion Despite robust supply, oil prices are supported by both fundamentals and persistent geopolitical risk premiums. The APMM reflects this environment with a Bullish (Weak) signal and rising trend. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key bullish factor for oil markets. References Al Jazeera. (2024). Oil prices spike as Israel strikes Iran amid Middle East tensions. Armstrong Economics. (2024). Oil Prices & the Israel-Iran Crisis - A Historical Perspective. BBC. (2024). Israel Iran: What could conflict mean for oil and gas prices? Chen, S., Liu, P., & Wang, J. (2024). Uncertainty about interest rates and crude oil prices. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 1-28. CNBC. (2024). Oil prices could spike to $95 if Iran-Israel conflict escalates, Goldman Sachs warns. Goldman Sachs. (2024). Commodities Research: Middle East Risk Premium in Oil Markets. Al-Shboul, M., & Alqaralleh, H. (2025). Dynamic Effects of Economic Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risks on Saudi Stock Market Returns. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(1), 12.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeTools
Trade Idea: Sell NZD/CAD (Short-Term Pressure)### **💡 Why Sell NZD/CAD?** **🇳🇿 NZD – New Zealand Dollar:** * **Global risk-off + weaker China demand** → *🌍📉 NZD struggles when investors avoid risk and China slows — both are happening.* * **RBNZ cut rates to 3.25% and may cut again** → *🏦📉 A dovish central bank puts downward pressure on the Kiwi.* * **June 23 GDP could move the market** → *📅 Until then, expectations are low — and that weighs on NZD.* * **Dairy prices + China still weak** → *🐄🇨🇳 These are key parts of NZ’s economy — and both are underperforming.* * **Sentiment: Bearish** → *📊 Traders are positioned short — not much appetite to buy Kiwi right now.* --- **🇨🇦 CAD – Canadian Dollar:** * **Oil above \$80 helps CAD** → *🛢️ Canada’s economy benefits from higher oil — that’s a natural support for the loonie.* * **BoC held rates at 2.75%, not rushing to cut** → *⚖️ Slightly dovish, but still firmer than NZ’s approach.* * **Core inflation still above 3%** → *🔥 Keeps the BoC cautious — good for CAD strength.* * **Retail sales data coming soon** → *🧾 A strong print could give CAD a further push.* * **Sentiment: Neutral to bullish** → *📈 Among commodity currencies, CAD is holding up the best right now.* --- ### **🔍 Outlook:** The **fundamentals clearly favor CAD over NZD** — stronger inflation, oil support, and no aggressive easing. Unless NZ GDP surprises big on June 23, this pair likely continues to drift lower. --- **📌 Note:** > *“Still one of the cleanest cross plays — NZD weak, CAD stable. Slow but steady sell setup as long as the story holds.”*
Short
by Wainainarobert
USDJPY ANalysis week 26Fundamental analysis The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and forecast only a small cut in 2026-2027 due to concerns about high inflation. The number of officials opposing a rate cut this year increased. The Israel-Iran conflict escalated, the US may attack Iran but is waiting for Tehran's response, causing the Japanese Yen to appreciate thanks to its safe-haven role. Japan and the US have not reached a trade deal, the risk of higher tariffs before the July 9 deadline. The US dollar is near a one-week high, supporting the USD/JPY pair, but investors remain cautious due to the lack of new economic data. Technical analysis USDJPY is rising quite strongly and reacting at the resistance zone of 146.200. There is a possibility of a price gap next week, so trading early will be quite risky. The trading range is expected to be clearer at the resistance and support zones. 146,800 and 147,700 are noted as the two important upper boundary zones. 145,400 and 144,400 will be important support zones with a very strong buyer force waiting. Trading Signals
by TVS-Trader
Trade Idea: Sell NZD/CHF (Still in Play) **📉 Trade Idea: Sell NZD/CHF (Still in Play)** **Bias:** 🔻 Bearish **Timeframe:** 🧭 Short-to-Medium Term --- ### **💡 Why Sell NZD/CHF?** *(Already shared before — and it's working so far ✅)* **🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD):** * **Global risk-off + weak China demand** → *🌍📉 Bad mix for the Kiwi — pressure from all sides.* * **RBNZ cut rates to 3.25%, may go lower** → *📉 Clearly in easing mode — no support from policy.* * **GDP due June 23 — big swing factor** → *📅 Until then, no real reason to be bullish.* * **Dairy & China exposure still weighing** → *🐄🇨🇳 Old headwinds, still blowing.* * **Market sentiment: Bearish** → *🟥 Traders expecting more weakness — and so far, they’re right.* --- **🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF):** * **Risk-off flows help CHF — but not strongly** → *🛡️ Some safe-haven demand, though capped by the SNB's soft stance.* * **SNB cut rates to 0%, may go negative again** → *💤 Ultra-dovish tone, but market already priced it in.* * **Flat inflation, soft GDP** → *📊 Weak data, but no fresh downside pressure yet.* * **On U.S. watchlist for FX manipulation** → *👀 Adds possible SNB intervention risk — something to monitor.* * **Market tone: Neutral** → *⚖️ CHF not charging higher, but holding its ground. Enough to beat the Kiwi.* --- ### **🔍 Outlook:** The **fundamental match-up favors the franc over the Kiwi** — even with the SNB being dovish. NZD is just weaker right now, and as long as GDP doesn’t surprise to the upside, this short trade still has room to run. --- **📌 Note:** > *“This setup’s been behaving nicely — not flashy, but steady. Until NZ GDP proves otherwise, I’m staying with the trend.”*
Short
by Wainainarobert
Weekend Report – June 22, 2025Market Overview and Equities Performance Equity markets closed the week with a mixed tone, largely reflecting the balancing act between geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policy signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the major indices with a modest gain, finishing at 42,086.22, up 35.16 points. In contrast, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 experienced declines, with the latter dropping 93.40 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 index also underperformed, shedding 0.82%, underscoring investor caution toward riskier, less liquid segments of the equity universe. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged up to 20.59, reflecting elevated uncertainty across global markets. Across global equities, developed markets remained broadly lower. Germany’s EWG ETF showed a slight gain (+0.06%), but the UK (EWU -0.82%), France (EWQ -0.28%), and Japan (EWJ -1.82%) underperformed. Among emerging markets, India (EPI -0.87%) showed relative resilience, while Brazil (EWZ -1.46%) and Mexico (EWW -1.48%) dragged down the regional index. Within U.S. sectors, Energy (XLE +0.98%) and Financials (XLF +0.14%) stood out, outperforming other segments. Technology (XLK -1.07%) and Healthcare (XLV -0.64%) were laggards, as risk-off sentiment and rotation into defensive sectors continued. Fixed Income and Yields In fixed income, yields fluctuated modestly across maturities and regions. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly to 4.383%, reflecting a cautious reassessment of potential rate cuts, while the 2-year yield settled at 3.916%, keeping the yield curve relatively flat. This structure signals continued investor skepticism around aggressive easing due to sticky inflation and economic resilience. Notably, 10-year German Bunds yielded 2.52%, while UK Gilts touched 4.543%. Japan remained the lowest among major economies, with 10-year JGBs at 1.402%. Corporate credit segments displayed steady but muted performance. High Grade Corporates (LQD) and High Yield Corporates (HYG) both posted minor gains, supported by a moderate risk-on tone in fixed income. U.S. TIPS, convertibles, and emerging market debt (EMB +0.11%) were among the stronger performers, pointing to selective investor positioning around inflation hedges and credit risk opportunities. Sector Rotation and Style Performance Sector rotation data highlighted a clear tilt toward defensives. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.73%) and Utilities (XLU +0.27%) outperformed, while cyclical sectors like Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.07%) lagged. This rotation reflects growing concerns over both geopolitical spillover and the delayed effect of higher interest rates on the real economy. Factor performance relative to the S&P 500 showed Buybacks (+1.1%) and Hedge Funds (+0.7%) leading qualitative strategies. Growth (-0.2% vs. SPY) underperformed, while Large-Cap Value (IVE/SPY +0.73%) emerged as the day’s strongest style segment. Low Volatility and Momentum factors also gained, up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, reflecting investor preference for stability. IPOs and Quality-based factors lagged, suggesting waning appetite for newer or less consistent earnings profiles. Commodities Update Commodities delivered notable moves, driven by geopolitical and inflation-related themes. Brent crude oil climbed 0.43% to $77.13 per barrel, while WTI crude added 22.46% month-to-date, buoyed by supply disruption fears tied to the Israel-Iran conflict. Gold remained firmly bid, up 2.37% to $3,368.72, with silver also gaining 24.9% year-to-date as investors sought safety amid market uncertainty. Energy commodities broadly strengthened, while agricultural markets showed mixed results. Wheat gained 3.8%, while corn and sugar extended their declines, down -8.55% and -19.58% respectively in 3-month terms. These diverging trends suggest speculative flows into soft commodities may be tapering as inflation moderates. Meanwhile, industrial metals such as copper and aluminum remained stable, while steel saw some weakness amid global growth concerns. Currency Markets The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was slightly weaker, as the market reassessed the likelihood of U.S. intervention in Iran and priced in delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts. The euro and pound held steady, with EUR/USD at 1.1516 and GBP/USD at 1.3442. The Japanese yen continued to weaken, reaching 146.17 against the dollar, down over 8% year-over-year. The currency heatmap showed the euro up 7.6% over the past year and the pound up 6.7%, reflecting both relative monetary policy paths and capital flows. Emerging market currencies, particularly the Turkish lira and South African rand, remained under pressure. Latin American currencies also saw weakness as risk aversion returned. Notably, the Norwegian krone was the strongest currency on the day, gaining 0.92%, while the Indian rupee and Chinese yuan continued to struggle. Macro Themes and Geopolitical Risks A range of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are shaping the market environment. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains divided over the timing of potential rate cuts. Some members, such as Christopher Waller, suggest that easing could begin as early as the next meeting, citing muted inflation effects from tariffs. Others remain cautious, warning about anchoring long-term inflation expectations. President Trump's pressure for deep rate cuts adds political complexity to the Fed’s independence. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, contributing to volatility in energy markets and risk-off flows in global equities. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains a central concern, particularly for Gulf energy infrastructure and military alliances. European markets, while initially lifted by negotiation prospects, remain susceptible to headline risk. Further complicating the global outlook, the European Union announced restrictions on Chinese medical device procurement, exacerbating trade tensions with Beijing. In commodities and energy policy, investor sentiment is also being shaped by U.S. political developments, with Trump-era tariffs and subsidies creating uncertainty around the future of clean energy investment and industrial production strategies. All in All: Markets are currently navigating a volatile and complex macro environment characterized by mixed central bank messaging, geopolitical flashpoints, and shifting investor risk preferences. Equity performance reflects a cautious rotation into defensives and quality factors, while bond yields hold steady as participants wait for clarity on the Fed's next move. Commodities, especially energy and precious metals, are reacting to geopolitical premiums, while FX markets reflect shifting global capital allocations. In this environment, diversification, quality exposure, and tactical risk management remain paramount. The coming weeks will likely hinge on the evolution of Middle East conflict dynamics, additional economic data, and clarity from the Fed. Market participants should brace for volatility, with a potential tilt toward safe havens and low-beta assets in the short term.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
XAUUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my XAUUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
61
USD/CAD Trap in Progress? Smart Money Flips BearishUSD/CAD is currently in a rebalancing phase after the strong downside correction seen over recent weeks. Following a rejection in the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, price retraced down to a major demand area between 1.3500 and 1.3650, where it has shown a notable bullish reaction. The pair is now trading at 1.3734, and multi-frame data suggests we are in a transitional phase—not yet a confirmed bullish trend reversal. COT Report – Institutional Positioning The latest Commitments of Traders data (June 10th) reveals critical signals: Commercials (hedgers and large institutions) have aggressively increased their long exposure on CAD, adding +27,999 contracts. This indicates strong expectations of Canadian dollar appreciation—bearish implications for USD/CAD in the medium term. Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced their short CAD exposure by -14,319 contracts, signaling that speculative players are starting to unwind long USD/CAD positions. Overall, the net shift shows institutional sentiment turning bearish on the pair, potentially pointing to a deeper downside once the current technical pullback completes. USD Index COT – Dollar Momentum Weakening On the USD Index, Non-Comms have added +1,279 long contracts, but positioning remains moderate. Commercials are flat, suggesting the dollar lacks strong bullish backing. This makes any sustained USD/CAD rally structurally fragile. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are 57% short and 43% long on USD/CAD. Although not extreme, this imbalance suggests confidence among retail participants in a bearish move—often preceding a short-term upward squeeze before an eventual trend continuation. We could therefore see price move toward 1.3900 as a liquidity grab, setting the stage for a larger reversal. Technical Analysis – Outlook Key highlights: A strong bullish reaction occurred from the 1.3500–1.3650 demand zone, previously well-respected. The weekly RSI is still below the 50-level but is turning upward—momentum is improving. Price structure shows room for a pullback to the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, which aligns with higher-timeframe order blocks. This zone remains a critical resistance, and unless the macro and positioning context changes, a renewed bearish impulse is expected from this area. Trading Outlook The current picture presents a tactical short-term long opportunity, followed by a potential structural short setup. 📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Pullback (in play): With price above 1.3700 and consolidating, there’s space for a rally toward the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone. Ideal for short-term targets. 📉 Scenario 2 – Structural Short (priority bias): Should price reach 1.3950–1.4000 and show bearish confirmation (e.g., engulfing, doji, rejection on H4/H1), this would be a prime area to initiate swing shorts, targeting 1.3600 and eventually 1.3450. ✅ Final Bias: Structural Bearish – Corrective Bullish Watch for potential false breakouts above 1.3800–1.3900 to liquidate retail shorts before a more meaningful downside move. The sharp increase in commercial net long CAD positions supports a bearish USD/CAD bias for the coming weeks.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
16
"Gold’s War Cry: XAUUSD Eyes $3700 Amid Middle East Turmoil"PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD Gold is once again stepping into the spotlight as global markets reel from escalating geopolitical tensions. With President Trump confirming a full-scale U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan—the world is bracing for potential retaliation and broader instability. In times like these, gold doesn’t just shine—it roars. 📈 My Bias: Strongly Bullish 🎯 Targets: - Primary: $3500 - Extended: $3700 These levels are not just technical aspirations—they’re grounded in the reality of rising global risk aversion, central bank accumulation, and a potential flight to safety as the Middle East teeters on the edge of wider conflict. 🔍 Key Technical Zone: - $3341–$3352: This is my immediate area of interest. I expect a pullback into this zone on market open, which could offer a high-probability long setup. - Break Below? If price slices through this zone, I’ll be watching the $3330–$3320 demand area for signs of absorption and reversal. 🧠 Macro Context: - The U.S. strike marks a historic escalation, with Trump declaring the nuclear sites “completely and totally obliterated”. - Iran’s expected retaliation could further destabilize the region, fueling safe haven flows into gold. - Central banks remain net buyers of gold, and with inflation still lurking, real yields remain a key driver. 📊 Confluence Factors: - Rising volume on bullish candles - RSI holding above 50 on higher timeframes - DXY showing signs of topping out - VIX creeping higher—risk-off sentiment brewing 📌 Final Thoughts: Gold is no longer just a hedge—it’s becoming a statement. In a world where headlines move markets, XAUUSD is poised to benefit from both fear and fundamentals. I’ll be watching price action closely at the open, ready to strike if the setup aligns.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Billionaire_bills
15
$ETH: The 1-week chart is an absolute disaster!Once again, I want to make it clear: I’m naturally a bull. But I live in Thailand, far from the noise of influencers shouting "buy, buy, buy!" I’ve learned my lesson—when they scream buy, you get rekt. That’s why I rely solely on the charts. Charts are just mathematics—they don’t lie. So here’s my honest interpretation of what I’m seeing for Ethereum: 🕐 Daily Outlook Yes, we might see a few nice bounces in the short term. But if your plan is to hold ETH, you should be paying attention to higher timeframes, especially the weekly. 📉 Weekly Chart — It's Ugly We’re clearly in a descending wedge, and overall, ETH is bearish. Don’t be fooled by the hype or the people trying to take your money. - RSI is bearish, with a strong bearish divergence still unfolding. - MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover, and what’s worse, it’s doing that without even touching the neutral zone—a major red flag. The last time we saw this setup? November 2021. The price crashed below $1,000. 🔍 Where’s the Support? This cycle, the support zone looks closer to $1,500, mainly due to institutional interest and the ETF narrative. A full retracement seems unlikely, but technically speaking—it’s still a possibility. 🤔 Why Is This Happening Despite Institutional FOMO? Here’s the key: ETH has staking, and every month, new CRYPTOCAP:ETH is minted to pay stakers. This creates constant inflation. On top of that, many stakers compound their rewards, accelerating the inflation. And guess what? These same stakers are selling as soon as ETH pumps. So fundamentally, Ethereum is under pressure because of its own staking mechanics—a system flaw that creates long-term selling pressure. Do your own research (DYOR). I could be wrong—but at least I’m not trying to sell you a course.
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
23
BITCOIN → Possibility of retesting 100K. Buyer weakeningBINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is in consolidation after the rally stalled due to the exhaustion of the bullish driver. The price updates local lows and starts looking at 100K Bitcoin is under pressure after the escalation of conflict in the middle east and after the FOMC speech. There is also another observation: large companies, politicians, funds and investors have long and aggressively motivate the crowd to buy, verbally confirming that they bought dozens and hundreds of bitcoins at a time for the balance, but bitcoin is standing still and updating lows. At the same time, various services such as "cryptorank" fix bullish sentiment at the lows. The market either lacks liquidity or something more unpredictable is happening (chart drawing????) Technically, bitcoin is following the behavior of the SP500 quite strongly, which closes Friday's session quite weak and close to key support, which could trigger a continuation of the decline. Bitcoin won't stay on the sidelines and could also follow the index.... Resistance levels: 104K, 105K, 106K Support levels: 102K, 100.6K, 97.5K The price is coming out of the “symmetrical triangle” consolidation breaking the support, thus confirming the bearish mood. After a small correction after a false breakdown of 102500 the price may again return to storm (retest) the level under market pressure, which will only strengthen expectations of further decline. The target is liquidity 100600 - 100K. From 100K rebound and growth is possible. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
38
The influence of high-frequency data on price fluctuationsMajor Datasets for Price Trend Analysis: Types, Sources, and Applications 1. Financial and Market Datasets Stock and Equity Markets: Source: Bloomberg Terminal, Yahoo Finance, Alpha Vantage (API), Reuters Eikon. Data Structure: Time-series data (daily/intraday prices, trading volumes, market capitalization) for stocks, indices (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ), and commodities (gold, oil). Use Case: Analyzing stock price trends via technical indicators (MACD, RSI) or fundamental analysis, predicting market volatility using GARCH models. Cryptocurrency Markets: Source: CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Binance API, Kaiko (professional crypto data). Data Structure: Real-time or historical price data for cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH), trading pairs, order book depth, and blockchain transaction metrics. Use Case: Studying price trends in decentralized markets, evaluating correlations with traditional assets, or developing algorithmic trading strategies.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by jiangjinzee54e71e3ce14449d
Nikkei 225 stays bullish as Japan embraces AIWhile most traders have been focused on AI's impact on Western economies, Japan has been quietly chipping away at its own AI revolution. Not by building the flashiest tools, but by embedding AI into the guts of its economy. Let's start with the obvious. Japan is an industrial giant. Toyota, Fanuc, Sony. These companies aren’t chasing fads. They’re integrating AI into factories, supply chains, and robotics. Not hype but rather real productivity. The government gets it too. “Society 5.0” isn’t just a slogan. It’s a structural policy push. R&D spending is north of 3% of GDP. That’s capital well spent. Now the deeper point, demographics. Japan’s working-age population is shrinking. That’s no longer a headwind. It’s fuel. AI offsets labour shortages. Healthcare, logistics, transport. These sectors are being rewired, not disrupted. They’re evolving, and profits will follow. Then there’s valuation. The Nikkei 225 is still attractive with a forward P/E of around 14x, while the S&P trades above 22x. Yet Japanese firms are global leaders in high-value, AI-relevant sectors. That gap will close. This is structural, it’s not about today’s trade. It’s about where capital flows over the next five years. Japan’s quiet, calculated AI pivot is the most underpriced transformation in global markets. Stay long Nikkei, we expect the 200-day moving average to hold. The re-rating is only beginning. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
TVC:NI225Long
by Blueberry
6
Wait for the key points to be confirmed before taking actionThe trend of gold on Friday is still in line with my analysis. Before the market opened, I suggested that gold would rebound from the bottom. Considering the resistance level, I would arrange short orders with a light position. I clearly emphasized that I should not chase short orders at low levels. The actual market price fluctuated upward after hitting the 3340 line at the lowest point, and maintained a range-bound fluctuation pattern as a whole. We arranged long orders in batches at 3342-3353, successfully stopped profit near 3358, reversed shorting, and stopped profit again at 3342. After that, the market hit the top again and was blocked. Short orders were arranged at 3370-3375. It is not recommended to hold positions over the weekend. I have already left the market with a small profit near 3365. Although there was no significant breakthrough, all ended with profit, but it was quite satisfactory for Friday's market. News: Gold prices were stable on Friday, but fell 1.8% this week. It closed at 3368. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement reinforced the Fed's cautious stance, keeping interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, the statement also lowered the number of expected rate cuts this year, which put downward pressure on gold prices. In addition, U.S. Treasury yields did not change much but rose slightly, reflecting the stabilization of market risk sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than 2 basis points to 4.421%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.924%. Rising yields often put pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, further suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices. The Fed's failure to immediately launch an easing policy, coupled with a stronger dollar and a reduced urgency of geopolitical risks, have all exacerbated selling pressure. Unless tensions escalate again or the Fed unexpectedly turns, short-term gold price forecasts point to further weakening. The price of gold has rebounded since it fell from its historical high of 3500 to 3120， After continuous rise, due to the decline of risk aversion in the market, it fell under pressure at 3452. It rebounded to 3340 on Friday. The K-line combination arrangement was bearish. The 4H chart showed a stop-loss signal. It is expected that the market will consolidate below 3400 in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical crisis and the July interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve. It will break through the node after confirming the upper resistance of 3400. In the short-term 4-hour chart, the lower support is around 3340-3345, and the upper short-term resistance is around 3380-3385. Focus on the suppression of the 3400-05 line. The overall idea of ​​​​retracing back to long positions remains unchanged, and the middle area is mainly kept on the sidelines. Be cautious in chasing orders and wait patiently for the key points to be confirmed before intervening. If the upper resistance is not broken, you can still consider light positions to arrange short orders, and pay attention to the bottom for the specific entry point.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
1
BTC get out while you still can!I've been warning people about this for weeks. History doesn't repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. BTC had a double tope and the 50 / 200SMA show cooling and both showing clearly that it's moving one direction and it's not up. Gravity with this one is strong (historically) and so is the volatility. Crypto bros will go back to eating beans and rice! MSTZ and BTCZ could be good plays here....best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
Short
by antonini2002
1
OP TARGETS FOR Q2 2025🔥 NASDAQ:OP long setup (1D) 🚀 ✅ Entry Zone: $0.46 – $0.506 (descending-channel base) 🎯 Targets • TP-1: $1.55 (Nov-23 supply flip) • TP-2: $1.80 (201-day breakdown block) ⛔ Stop-Loss Daily close < $0.42 📊 Thesis • Superchain mainnet ties OP, Base, Mode & Fraxtal together Q4-25 • Bedrock upgrade already cut L2 gas ~40 % & sped deposits 9× • Worldcoin + 30 M wallets moved to OP Mainnet • Retro Funding 5 injects $100 M into OP-Stack builders • Emission schedule halves in Aug-25; float tightens each month after • Sequencer-revenue share & Superchain fees stream back to stakers • Mode, Fraxtal & dozens of L3s funnel new users into the OP economy
by Og_Bitpool
1
CHR TARGETS FOR 2025 🔥 NASDAQ:CHR long setup (1D) 🚀 ✅ Entry Zone: $0.068 – $0.062 (12-month demand) 🎯 Targets • TP-1: $0.17 (Q4-24 supply flip) • TP-2: $0.24 (2024 breakdown block) ⛔ Stop-Loss Daily close < $0.052 📊 Thesis • Chromia mainnet modules live; full network launch slated before TOKEN2049 • Filehub mainnet gives on-chain storage for images/video — paid in CHR • My Neighbor Alice just shipped the **first fully on-chain** browser MMO on Chromia • Cross-chain staking hub lets you stake CHR on Chromia, ETH & BNB in one UI • Staking APR redesigned (fixed 3 %) → sustainable yield & tighter float • Roadmap: Dapp chains, ColorPool DEX, Chromia Originals NFTs, bridged CHR to more L1s • 270 k+ community & Coinbase “interest” tag spark listing rumours
by Og_Bitpool
1