Get started

Fundamental Analysis

Long,Pioneers Holding (EGX: ASPI) Pioneers Holding (EGX: ASPI) has several key financial indicators that you should consider before making any investment decisions. Here's a breakdown of the company's financial position and performance: fundamentals Analysis 1. Stock Performance & Valuation: • Current Price: 0.278 EGP • Book Value Per Share: 0.35 EGP (suggests the stock is trading below book value, which could indicate undervaluation) • Based on Book Value Multiple → 0.60 EGP • Based on P/E Ratio → 0.41 EGP • The stock is currently trading at a significant discount compared to both valuation benchmarks: o 53.7% discount to the book value multiple (0.278 vs. 0.60 EGP). o 32.2% discount to the fair value based on the sector’s P/E ratio (0.278 vs. 0.41 EGP). • EPS: 0.07 EGP • 52-Week Price Change: -32.05% (significant decline, suggesting weak market sentiment or financial concerns) 2. Financial Health & Liquidity: • Cash: 498.11M EGP • Debt: 875.23M EGP (debt exceeds cash, leading to a net debt of -377.12M EGP) • Net Cash Per Share: -0.19 EGP (indicating a negative net cash position, which raises concerns about liquidity and financial stability) • Working Capital: -134.22M EGP (negative, suggesting possible short-term liquidity issues) 3. Profitability & Margins: • Revenue: 345.92M EGP • Net Income: 76.01M EGP (net margin of 21.97%, which is decent) • Gross Margin: 22.94% (moderate, indicating the company retains a reasonable portion of revenue after direct costs) • Operating Margin: 16.82% (suggesting the company has good cost control, but interest expenses may be a concern given the high debt levels) 4. Key Takeaways: ✅ Positive Factors: • Profitable with a 21.97% net profit margin • Trading below book value (0.278 EGP vs. 0.35 EGP), which might indicate undervaluation • Stable earnings per share (EPS: 0.07 EGP) ⚠️ Concerns: • High debt (875.23M EGP) relative to cash reserves • Negative working capital (-134.22M EGP), which could pose liquidity risks • Stock has underperformed significantly in the last year (-32.05%) Investment Consideration: According to Tracxn, Pioneers Holding has a Tracxn score of 34 out of 100, positioning it ahead of Beltone (29/100) but indicating room for growth compared to leading firms in the sector. • Value Perspective: If you believe the company can improve its balance sheet and market sentiment shifts, this could be an undervalued opportunity. • Risk Consideration: The negative cash position and high debt may pose risks, especially if interest rates rise or earnings decline. Tech. Analysis see the chart mark refer to GANN & Elliot wave
EGX:ASPILong
by maminpip
1
S&P 500 Correction Channel Keeps Bulls in Control, for NowThe S&P 500 has formed an uptrend channel after breaking out of the "tariff panic" downtrend, which had dragged the index down more than 10%. But is this new short-term uptrend merely a correction, or has the real direction changed? That’s the key question, one that will likely be answered in early April when the new tariffs take effect. February consumer confidence data didn’t look promising, but much of the negativity had already been priced in during the earlier 10% sell-off. However, this week’s PCE report, combined with next week’s tariffs and jobs report, could become a catalyst for determining the short- to medium-term direction. The 200-hour SMA has now reached the upper line of the trend channel. Together, they may create a strong resistance level. To the downside, 5700 is a key horizontal support level. By the end of this week, it will converge with the lower boundary of the channel, right as both the GDP and PCE data are released. Including the time factor, this confluence could mark the main short-term support. As long as the trend channel holds, bulls remain in control.
SP:SPX
by ftdsystem
1
South Africa Top 40 Index (SA40) Overview and Market OutlookHello, The South Africa Top 40 Index (SA40), also known as the JSE Top 40 Index, is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of the 40 largest companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)—Africa’s largest stock exchange. Despite covering a relatively small number of companies, the index represents over 80% of the total market capitalization of JSE-listed firms, making it a strong indicator of the overall performance of the South African stock market. Market Update & Outlook While the SA40 remains a key benchmark, it has faced recent price struggles as investors react to global economic developments. Market uncertainty has been fueled by concerns over U.S. trade policy, particularly expectations surrounding President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans. Investors fear these tariffs could slow economic growth in the world's largest economy. However, Trump recently suggested a softer approach, stating that not all threatened tariffs would be imposed immediately and that some countries may receive exemptions. Investment Strategy Given the current uncertainty, we anticipate a further correction in the SA40. Investors considering exposure to this asset may opt for a small short position in the near term or wait for the correction to play out before entering a long-term buy position. Careful risk management and market monitoring remain crucial in navigating this evolving landscape. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:SA40
by thesharkke
Near looks bullishAfter the big collapse of the AI majors due to Deepseek events, many of the AI based assets lost its value more than they gained over six months. Near is gainin momentum and gives signals to move upwards. Closing a candle above monthly resistence (3.8), may result Near to grow over +%20 or maybe even more. Target for this set up should be around 4.5 due to having a strong supply zone around. For a better an aggressive entry, follow the trendline which will trigger the pump.
CRYPTO:NEARUSDLong
by vs_sayin
GOLD → Price returns to the channel to form a bullish structureFX:XAUUSD is completing a correction, breaking channel resistance and consolidating above the downtrend line. Traders are waiting for economic data and tariff war actions Trump confirmed plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on April 2, limiting exemptions. The new duties have raised fears for the U.S. economy, which has weakened the dollar and boosted demand for gold.Markets are also keeping an eye on talks between the U.S., Ukraine and Russia.Focus is also on US durable goods orders data - a strong reading could cool expectations of a Fed rate cut, limiting gold's gains Resistance levels: 3033, 3045, 3056 Support levels: 3013, 3004 Gold may test the support zone before rising further. The focus is on the current consolidation 3033 - 3013. A key resistance is formed ahead, a breakdown of this zone may provoke a continuation of growth to 3045 - 3056. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
GBPUSD → Correction to the liquidity zone. Waiting for a FBFX:GBPUSD gets a negative CPI report in the early session and tests key support, but failing to reach the liquidity area a rebound is formed. The pair is in consolidation... The CPI report provoked a small liquidation in the market, within the framework of which the price tested one of the key supports at 1.2886, but the price did not enter the liquidity area, i.e. technically the chances to return to this area are quite high. A correction to the imbalance zone is being formed, from which the decline may continue. In the short term I am interested in 1.2868, which can still hold the market and form a bullish impulse. Resistance levels: 1.2926 Support levels: 1.2886, 1.2868, 1.2811 False break of the global range support at 1.2868 may trigger a rebound to 1.2926. I do not exclude a deeper correction to the support from D1, for example to 1.2811 from which, against the background of the bull market, we can wait for an upward correction. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
3
XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish Outlook 🔹 Market Sentiment: Bullish ✅ 🔍 Technical Analysis: 📈 Trend: Gold remains in an upward trajectory, forming higher highs & higher lows. 📊 Key Indicators: EMA & Market Structure: Price holding above key EMAs signals continued bullish momentum. RSI: Trending towards overbought zone, confirming strong buying interest. Support & Resistance: Support: 3014 – 3021 (Optimal Buy Zone) Resistance: 3042 – 3057 (Take Profit Zones) Fair Value Gaps & Order Blocks: Price likely to revisit demand zones before pushing higher. 🎯 Trading Strategy: ✅ Buy Entry: 3014 – 3021 🎯 Targets: 3042, then 3057 🚨 Stop-Loss: Below 3010 (break of support) ⚠️ Risk Management: Use proper lot sizing & trailing stops to maximize gains. 💡 Conclusion: Gold is set for a bullish breakout; watch for confirmations near the buy zone. 🚀📊
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_with_Ray
IPUSDT → Exit from the triangle may trigger a distribution ofBINANCE:IPUSDT.P is forming positive preconditions for possible growth. Bitcoin slightly revitalized the market after positive news related to SEC and XRP (the crypto community did not miss this fact) The IP coin was in consolidation for a long time - a symmetrical triangle. Rising lows, consolidation, breakout of triangle resistance give positive signs of readiness for distribution (realization of consolidation). Ahead is the key resistance at 5.6297 separating the market from the free zone Resistance levels: 5.6297, 6.631 Support levels: 5.116, 4.783 Price has been sticking to triangle resistance for the past few days and is gaining potential for breakout and realization. Numerous intraday retests of the area indicate the market's interest to break beyond this zone. A breakout of 5.6297 and price consolidation above the triangle will be a good signal of readiness to go up. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
EURUSD SHORTin monthly timeframe the price is making a strong rejection a FVG level also a ChoCh level (also march month is at its end ) indicating a strong down trend and in small time frame a lots of dominant break candle stick pattern which is also a good sign of a down trend .+ some of EUR news are coming at 13:30 Pm if the the news goes RED(bearish) than you enter the market + wait for the trendline to Break in 15 minutes timeframe (for confirmation).and Inshallah you will see good results
Short
by MohammedAijaz
GOLD holds above $3,000, aiming for weekly targetOANDA:XAUUSD continues to recover and maintain an upward trend, as uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policy has boosted safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the market is focusing on US inflation data due this week to further determine the path of interest rates. Tariff and inflation concerns have fueled safe-haven buying, with gold up more than 15% this year US President Donald Trump said on Monday that tariffs on imported cars were coming, but hinted that not all of the threatened tariffs would take effect on April 2 and that some countries could be exempted. This is sure to raise concerns that if the tariffs are officially implemented, they could push up inflation and stifle economic growth, so investment flows in the market have shifted to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold for allocation. Gold has always been considered a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic instability. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has increased by more than 15% and reached an all-time high of $ 3,057.21 / ounce on March 20. Market Focuses on PCE Inflation Data, Fed Maintains Dovish Expectations The market is now paying attention to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will be released on Friday. This index is considered the core data for the Federal Reserve to assess inflation trends and may provide further material for assessing the path of interest rate cuts this year. If the PCE inflation index does not show any unusual changes, it will further strengthen the Fed's dovish stance and continue to push gold prices up. More detailed assessments will be sent to readers in later publications. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged but signaled it could start cutting rates later this year. Since gold does not yield interest, it is often more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to rally since receiving support from the $3,000 raw price level, which was a key support noted by readers in previous issues. The current position above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level is a positive signal for gold to target the initial upside target in the weekly issue at $3,051 in the short term, more likely an all-time high. The relative strength index (RSI) is also bent upwards, which should be considered a corrective signal due to the weakening/ending profit-taking momentum. Going forward, the technical structure remains unchanged with the daily chart dominated by the bullish trend with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 as the main support. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook in the medium term, along with that, the notable positions for this trading day will be listed as follows. Support: 3,021 – 3,000 USD Resistance: 3,051 – 3,057 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3062 - 3060⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3066 →Take Profit 1 3054 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3048 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2989 - 2991⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2985 →Take Profit 1 2997 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3003
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 27, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, having rebounded from the previous session's losses to reach 1.2910 during Thursday's Asian trading session. The pair is strengthening as the US dollar remains under pressure from lower Treasury yields: 2-year and 10-year yields are at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Market participants are monitoring upcoming US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims and the final Q4 annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, scheduled for release later today. However, GBP/USD gains may be constrained due to an escalation in risk-off sentiment and a rise in US trade policy. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25 per cent tariffs on car imports, which will come into effect on April 2, with duty collection starting the following day. However, a one-month delay will be granted for imports of auto parts. This has led to heightened global trade tensions and added uncertainty to the markets. On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem issued a statement that was critical of the tariff policy, joining other Federal Reserve chiefs in expressing concerns. Musalem warned that the measures are disrupting the US economy, increasing uncertainty and pushing inflation higher. The release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February showed inflation falling faster than expected, leading to a weakening of the Pound Sterling (GBP). The lower CPI reading has led to speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may be leaning towards easing monetary policy. The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.9% forecast and down from January's 3.0%. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile goods, rose by 3.5%, below the anticipated 3.6% and the previous reading of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI increased by 0.4%, following a 0.1% decline in January, falling short of the 0.5% forecast. Inflation in the services sector, a key focus area for the Bank of England, remained steady at 5%. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.29000, SL 1.29700, TP 1.28100
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Is There the Best Time to Trade Forex in the UK?Is There the Best Time to Trade Forex in the UK? Grasping the nuances of forex market hours is essential for traders aiming to optimise their strategies. Operating continuously from Sunday evening to Friday night, the currency market accommodates participants across various time zones without being anchored to a singular physical location. For those in the UK, recognising when to engage can dramatically influence outcomes. This FXOpen article discusses the pivotal currency trading sessions that may be optimal for UK-based traders. Understanding Forex Market Hours Understanding currency exchange market hours is crucial for anyone involved in the global foreign exchange market. Although you may already know this, let us remind you. The forex market operates on a 24/5 basis, opening during weekdays and closing at weekends. This round-the-clock trading is possible because it’s not tied to a physical location; instead, it relies on a decentralised network of banks, businesses, and individuals exchanging currencies across different time zones. For traders in the UK, knowing the best forex trading hours can be key to effective trading. The currency market is broadly divided into four main 9-hour-long windows, each starting at different times to cater to traders across the globe. The forex session times UK traders need to be aware of are: - Sydney Session: 9:00 PM GMT - 6:00 AM GMT - Tokyo Session: 11:00 PM GMT - 8:00 AM GMT - London Session: 8:00 AM GMT - 5:00 PM GMT - New York Session: 1:00 PM GMT - 10:00 PM GMT Note that during British Summer Time (BST), some of these times are shifted forward by one hour. These forex market trading times are essential to know, as they indicate when liquidity and volatility are likely to increase, potentially offering favourable market conditions. The Optimal Times to Trade Forex in the UK In navigating currency trading, UK-based traders should be aware of two key sessions: London and New York. These periods are optimal forex market hours in the UK, offering greater volumes, volatility, and liquidity. They’re also the periods that see the most releases for three of the major economies: the UK, Eurozone, and the US. The core forex trading times in the UK are anchored around the London session, which is central to global forex market operations due to London's key position in the financial world. The London trading session time in the UK commences at 8:00 AM GMT (winter time). This period, ending at 5:00 PM GMT (winter time), is pivotal as it accounts for roughly half of the forex transactions globally, making it a prime trading time due to the high liquidity and the potential for more pronounced price movements. Likewise, the London-New York trading session time in the UK can be especially advantageous. It’s a crucial overlapping window occurring from 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM GMT (winter time), offering an avenue for traders seeking to maximise their potential returns due to the surge in activity and high-profile economic releases from the US. During this window, the US stock market opens at 2:30 PM GMT. This secondary opening can also have a notable effect on US dollar-based pairs. Economic Releases and the Impact on Trading Times for UK Traders Economic releases and central bank announcements significantly influence UK forex trading times, often driving prices higher or lower. Many UK economic releases—affecting GBP currency pairs—are scheduled around 7:00 AM GMT. This timing offers traders opportunities to engage in trends post-release during the early hours of the London open. However, some UK data and plenty of Eurozone data are released between 8:00 AM GMT and 10:00 AM GMT, periods typically characterised by increased liquidity and volatility, providing fertile ground for traders. Likewise, many high-profile US economic announcements—non-farm payrolls, inflation statistics and employment data— are made between 1:00 PM GMT and 3:00 PM GMT. Given the US dollar's dominance on the world stage, these releases can present significant trading opportunities. Although activity tends to quiet down after London closes, the late hours of the New York session still offer potential entries, albeit with generally lower volatility and volume. Notably, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions are announced at 7:00 PM GMT with a press conference held after that can cause outsized price movements. The same can be said for the Bank of England and European Central Bank’s interest rate decisions at 12:00 PM GMT and 1:15 PM GMT, respectively, and their subsequent press conferences. The Worst Time to Trade Forex in the UK The worst times to trade forex in the UK often occur after 8:00 PM GMT, during the tail end of New York’s hours, when liquidity and volume significantly decrease. This reduction in activity can lead to less favourable trading conditions, including wider spreads and slower execution times. Additionally, while the Asian session forex time in the UK, partially overlapping with the Sydney session, runs from 11:00 PM to 8:00 AM GMT, it presents challenges for UK traders. Despite offering trading opportunities, especially in Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar-based pairs, the volumes during this period are substantially lower compared to the London and New York sessions. The Tokyo session forex time in the UK accounts for particularly unsociable hours anyway, so many UK traders are unlikely to engage in currency trading during this period. Trading the London Session: A Strategy The Asian-London Breakout Strategy leverages the unique dynamics between the calmer Asian session and the volatile London session. It involves setting buy/sell stop orders at the high and low points of the Asian period’s range, aiming to capture movements as London opens at 8:00 AM GMT. With stop-loss orders placed above or below the range and a strategic approach to take profit – either at the end of the London session or by trailing a stop loss during the day – traders can potentially capitalise on the surge in activity. To delve deeper into this strategy and other session-based setups, consider exploring FXOpen’s 3-session trading system article. The Bottom Line Understanding forex trading hours and leveraging optimal times are pivotal for achieving favourable outcomes in currency trading. Luckily, UK-based traders are well placed to take advantage of the many opportunities the currency market presents, given their ability to trade both the London and New York sessions. For UK traders seeking to navigate the complexities of markets with a trusted broker, opening an FXOpen account can provide all of the tools and insights necessary for effective trading. FAQs When Do the Forex Markets Open in the UK? Forex opening times in the UK start at 8:00 AM GMT (winter time) and at 7:00 AM GMT (summer time) when the London session begins, marking the start of significant trading activity due to London's central role in the global currency arena. What Time Does the Forex Market Open on Sunday in the UK? The forex market opens on Sunday at 9:00 PM GMT (winter time) and at 10:00 PM GMT (summer time) in the UK, coinciding with Sydney’s opening and marking the beginning of the trading week. What Time Does the Forex Market Close on Friday in the UK? The forex market closes at 10:00 PM GMT (winter time) and at 9:00 PM GMT (summer time) on Friday in the UK, concluding with the end of the New York session and wrapping up the trading week. Can You Trade Forex on Weekends? Currency trading on weekends is not possible as the market is closed. Trading resumes with the opening of the Sydney session on Sunday at 9:00 PM GMT (winter time) and at 10:00 PM GMT (summer time). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
World gold prices rise again due to demand for safe assetsGold prices rose again on Friday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs next week, which could fuel inflation, prompting many investors to turn to gold as a hedge against inflation. Gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,029.30. "Investors are concerned about the global situation, especially U.S. policies," said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group. "They are buying gold as an alternative asset because they fear the U.S. government could push the global economy into recession." Amid geopolitical tensions, Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, following discussions between Russia and the U.S. on a proposal for a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea. Washington hopes this will pave the way for broader peace talks. Gold is widely seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. It has risen more than 15% this year, hitting a record $3,057.21 an ounce on March 20. President Trump said not all of the threatened tariffs would be implemented from April 2, and some countries could be exempted. The US government is considering a two-phase tariff schedule next week, according to the Financial Times. Trump's tax policies are expected to put pressure on economic growth, escalate trade tensions and push up inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
2
Gold Analysis March 26Candle D still shows that the battle between buyers and sellers has not yet been defeated. 3033 Plays an important role in the current downtrend structure. H4 Closes above the 3033 zone, officially breaking the wave and giving priority to the BUY side. Gold is pushing up and wants to break the dynamic resistance of 3027. Closes above 3027, gold is heading towards 3033-3035. If it does not break this zone, you can SELL to 3005 and if the US breaks 3005, hold to 2983. If the 3033 zone is broken, wait for BUY to break 3033, the daily target is towards 3045.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2
xrp format rsi and macd"The XRP/USD pair is currently exhibiting signs that may indicate a potential bullish reversal.​ Technical Analysis: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is at 49.28, suggesting neutral momentum. A move above 50 could signal strengthening bullish momentum.​ Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is at -0.00453, positioned above the signal line at -0.01699. Despite both values being negative, this crossover may indicate a weakening bearish trend and a potential shift towards bullish momentum.​ Trade Setup: Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if the RSI crosses above 50, confirming bullish momentum.​ Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below recent support levels to manage risk effectively.​ Take Profit: Identify key resistance levels as potential take profit targets, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio.​ Time Frame: This analysis is based on the daily chart, suggesting a medium-term trade horizon.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by michael_medrano2001
More upside opportunity?Due to the ongoing trade wars and rising geopolitical tensions; already existing and uprising between the US and Yemen this fundamentally provides more bullish opportunity for the safe-haven metal. The current price action also supports the bullish intentions with a Bullish breakout of the bullish flag chart pattern with price finding support at the resistance of the bearish trend line. Although the breakout has been with consolidation with price sweeping both buy side and sell side liquidities, which has resulted in the formation of an ascending triangle which may still require a few downward and upward price movements to fully take effect. Remember, trading is difficult because of loss of capital. Only a proper risk management can guard against this. -
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by oyemyk
Everyone’s scared of booze stocks… Why I’m still buyingThis analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. One of the things I find interesting is that a lot of people say “why do you like booze stocks so much Eden” and yet many of these same people are at the pub, or buying En primeur from Glengarry Wines. The short answer is — I like stocks that trade at multi-year lows with a predictable product. There is a fairly hysterical article in the FT wondering “Is alcohol the new tobacco?” To which I say, well, tobacco companies are absolute cash machines. The best performing stock in the S&P, of all time, to the best of my knowledge, is Altria. I know investing in tobacco is not fashionable (and yet, how many people do you see on the street vaping?). I know it goes against “ESG” and the scolds at public health slap you on the hand and say “gosh that is very bad for you!”. But the truth is that tobacco does generate tremendous profits — the net income margin for British American Tobacco is 39.1%. For those in the back, that’s for every $1 you sell, you make 39.1 cents of profit. There’s very few businesses with such fantastic operating margins — Visa’s net income margin is 56%. If I owned only one stock forever, I guess it’d probably be Visa. My point is — waving your hands about and saying “oh no! Tobacco!” belies the economics of it. The tobacco companies are doing very well, thank you very much. It will come as no surprise that cigarette smoking has been replaced by vaping. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, news of nicotine’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. This is not saying to invest in tobacco stocks, but my point is that human habits don’t change. They merely evolve, but the song remains the same. To be fair — alcohol consumption is declining. But it isn’t declining at a rate that calls for any kind of alarm. Most of the companies I follow — Brown Forman, Diageo, Constellation, etc, reported largely flat sales. It’s also instructive to look to history. In other words — alcohol consumption has largely normalised in the last few decades. There’s still cause for worry — I think wine is one area of concern, and Cognac is another — both industries need to think about how they introduce younger drinkers to their product. This is why I largely shy away from wine (and why Constellation is selling their wine portfolio). “Evergreens” like Guinness (a Diageo brand) and Jack Daniel’s (a Brown-Forman brand) are predictable. Once again — a bunch of ratios for ya’ll: Brown-Forman: 18x fwd earnings Pernod: 12x fwd earnings Constellation Brands: 13.25x fwd earnings And so on… these stocks trade like they are discount retailers in biddlybunk Ohio. They are not. There’s the issue. There’s where value lies. Cigarettes never went away; they became vapes. In my opinion, I don’t see booze going away anytime soon either.
NYSE:MO
by BlackBull_Markets
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TVC:US30YShort
by RealMacro
4