EURUSD → Pre-break consolidation against 1.053FX:EURUSD continues to form bullish hints for a possible continuation of growth. There is strong resistance ahead and the market is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation
The dollar continues its correction amid economic data, the country's politics and hints from Trump and Powell of a possible rate cut soon.
The euro is benefiting from the dollar's decline, but how long will it last, especially amid the tariff war between the U.S. and Europe?
Technically, at the moment, the chart indicates a bullish outlook. Within the local uptrend, an ascending triangle is forming, which generally indicates bullish interest in the market. The focus is on the pattern base - resistance at 1.053.
Support levels: 1.045, 1.040
Resistance levels: 1.053
If the dollar continues its downward course, the currency pair has all chances to grow.
A retest of the trend support (false breakout) before the resistance breakout is possible.
Breakout and consolidation of the price above 1.053 may provoke growth.
Regards R. Linda!
Fundamental Analysis
HBAR/USDT Technical Analysis🚀 Trade Setup Details:
🕯 #HBAR/USDT 🔼 Buy | Long 🔼
⌛️ TimeFrame: 1D
--------------------
🛡 Risk Management:
🛡 If Your Account Balance: $1000
🛡 If Your Loss-Limit: 1%
🛡 Then Your Signal Margin: $12.87
--------------------
☄️ En1: 0.21697 (Amount: $1.93)
☄️ En2: 0.17562 (Amount: $4.5)
☄️ En3: 0.14618 (Amount: $5.79)
☄️ En4: 0.11674 (Amount: $1.29)
--------------------
☄️ If All Entries Are Activated, Then:
☄️ Average.En: 0.17147 ($12.87)
--------------------
☑️ TP1: 0.3922 (+128.73%) (RR:1.66)
☑️ TP2: 0.4672 (+172.47%) (RR:2.22)
☑️ TP3: 0.56253 (+228.06%) (RR:2.94)
☑️ TP4: 0.68378 (+298.78%) (RR:3.85)
☑️ TP5: 0.81766 (+376.85%) (RR:4.85)
☑️ TP6: Open 🔝
--------------------
❌ SL: 0.03824 (-77.7%) (-$10)
--------------------
💯 Maximum.Lev: 1X
⌛️ Trading Type: Swing Trading
‼️ Signal Risk: ⚠️ High-Risk! ⚠️
🔎 Technical Analysis Breakdown:
This technical analysis is based on price action, SMC (Smart Money Concepts), and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts. All entry points, Target Points, and Stop Loss are calculated based on professional mathematics formulas as a result you can have an optimal trade setup based on great risk management.
📊 Sentiment & Market Context:
The HBAR/USDT pair is showing strong bullish potential as market sentiment shifts in favor of Hedera Hashgraph’s scalability and unique consensus mechanism. Hedera has been gaining significant attention due to its high-speed, low-cost transactions and growing enterprise adoption.
Technically, we are seeing key indicators point to a continuation of the bullish trend, with a recent breakout above resistance levels suggesting further upside potential. The market is currently in an accumulation phase, with strong support around key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Fundamentally, Hedera’s consensus algorithm (Hashgraph) stands out for its speed and security, making it a strong contender in the decentralized finance and enterprise blockchain space. With increasing use cases and strategic partnerships, HBAR could continue to outperform in the coming months.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Trading involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
💡 Stay Updated:
Like this technical analysis? Follow me for more in-depth insights, technical setups, and market updates. Let's trade smarter together!
Starbucks: Resurgence and Global Transformation on the MoveBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
Starbucks is immersed in a radical transformation process that promises to redefine its corporate structure and product offering, with a view to consolidating its leadership in the competitive U.S. market and projecting significant impacts globally.
Since the arrival of its CEO, Brian Niccol, the company has accelerated its change strategy, focusing its efforts on optimizing internal processes and enhancing the customer experience. In this context, the elimination of 1,100 jobs at the corporate level is presented as a measure to simplify decision-making and redirect resources to strategic areas. This restructuring is aimed at purging unnecessary functions and concentrating on innovation, a commitment that is reflected in the sustained improvement of shares, which have grown by 22% since the start of this new management chapter. The adjustment in headcount is part of a comprehensive vision of renewal, which also encompasses a review of the product portfolio. In an effort to eliminate operational complexity and focus the offering on what truly resonates with consumers, Starbucks has decided to remove some beverages that, despite having a following, do not meet commercial expectations. These include certain frappuccinos and white hot chocolate. With this, the company seeks to unify its brand image and focus on options that respond more directly to market demands, allowing a more agile execution and clear communication of its value proposition.
In the United States, this organizational and product redesign translates into a more seamless consumer experience, where attention to detail and service quality are priority elements. However, the implications of this plan are not limited to the domestic arena. On the international stage, Starbucks is recognized not only for its coffee, but also for its ability to adapt to local trends and needs. The internal simplification and refinement of the menu can serve as a model for other markets where operational efficiency and clarity in the offer are decisive factors in capturing consumer loyalty. Strengthening the brand globally will depend on maintaining the essence that has positioned Starbucks as a global benchmark. By focusing on innovation and improving the customer experience, the company seeks to generate a ripple effect that will influence quality and service expectations in different regions. In this context, investor optimism, evidenced by the recent stock rally, suggests that the market has confidence in Niccol's vision and the potential of these changes to drive sustainable growth.
In addition, this restructuring process has the potential to drive synergies between global operations, allowing for greater integration of marketing and sales strategies, and tailoring the offering to the particularities of each territory. The resulting flexibility could open up new opportunities in emerging markets, where demand for differentiated consumer experiences is constantly evolving.
Technical Analysis
Looking at the chart we can see that it has recovered the price of May 2023. At this time if the economic data accompanies the firm we could see an advance towards the highs of July 2021 but not before having to overcome the range of $117 that acted as support for that impulse to the highs. The checkpoint (POC) is well below at $98.20 and the RSI is currently at high overbought at 72.76% after correcting since January 29th its trend from 83.26%. The current price support zone currently lies between $102.80 and $89.86, at the last confluence area. If this price zone acts as strong support and economic data reinforces the idea that the corporate restructuring is paying off, the $110 level could be pierced as undervalued.
In short, Starbucks is charting a course that, by simplifying its internal structure and streamlining its portfolio, reinforces its commitment to excellence and innovation. This plan, which has implications far beyond the United States, could mark a turning point in the way large corporations approach transformation in an increasingly demanding and competitive global environment.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Gold intraday Idea 26/02/2025Yesterday, Gold followed scenario two, breaking below 2919 and retesting 2900 before rebounding. Despite a 170-pip attempt above 2929 today, a lack of fundamental drivers prevented continuation, leading to another pullback. Bias remains bullish, with buys above 2919 and 2929, while the safest entries remain above 2940. If price struggles at 2919, we could see a deeper pullback to 2900 or even 2888 before resuming bullish momentum. With no major news today, staying adaptive is key.
ETH and bybit's Hack impactDespite Bybit’s hack that resulted in $1.4B of ETH being stolen, its strong marketing and support from other exchanges suggest that additional selling pressure may be limited. However, Vitalik’s hints at a possible rollback could pose significant risks to the Ethereum network. I'm still bullish on ETH for next week, and the position you see here is my trading idea. Good luck!
(ETH) ethereumWhen can we expect to see reports on the new concepts about Ethereum in the future?
Buying mode, price of Ethereum well under the dotted line. Ethereum has not had a strong position for some time and is likely to find profits. One large drop in price does not usually follow another than another than another and especially not with such large volume and capital. Am I in control of the flow, no. Do I have billions to make heavy movements, no. Am I interested in the progress of Ethereum despite holding little to no value in Ethereum, yes.
What Is an ETF and How Does ETF CFD Trading Work?What Is an ETF and How Does ETF CFD Trading Work?
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, have gained significant popularity in recent years as a way to invest in a diversified portfolio of securities. But for the uninitiated, the world of ETFs can seem complex and overwhelming. So, what is an exchange-traded fund, and how does it work? In this article, we’ll cover everything you need to know about ETFs, the advantages and disadvantages, and we’ll explain how to trade ETF CFDs.
What Is an ETF and How Does It Work?
The ETF definition in investments is the following: exchange-traded funds (ETFs), sometimes called equity-traded funds, are financial products that track the performance of a specific index, commodity, or group of assets. ETFs are popular among individual and institutional investors thanks to their flexibility, low fees, and transparency.
Like stocks, ETFs are traded on exchanges. This means that you can buy ETF shares when the stock market is open. Note that you buy shares of a fund, not the fund itself. Unlike stocks, however, ETFs don’t focus on a single asset. Instead, ETFs consist of multiple assets and even different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash. Some ETFs are passively managed, meaning they’re designed to track a specific market or sector. Others are actively managed and have professional portfolio managers who choose which assets to include in the ETF.
ETFs are an effective way for traders and investors to diversify their positions. Because ETFs comprise a diverse range of securities, holders can gain exposure to different assets, markets, and sectors without having to trade each one individually. This can help reduce risk and volatility and potentially generate more stable returns over the long term.
Differences and Pros and Cons of ETFs vs Mutual Funds
While they share some similarities to mutual funds, one of the main differences between the two is that mutual funds are only traded at the end of the trading day according to their net asset value (NAV), while an ETF’s share price fluctuates throughout the day.
Mutual funds pool money from investors to invest in a range of assets and are often actively managed by a professional portfolio manager. This means they typically come with higher fees and a higher minimum investment requirement.
Generally speaking, ETFs are the more cost-effective and flexible option, as they offer lower expense ratios and allow for intraday trading. They also tend to be more tax efficient due to their reduced portfolio turnover rates. However, ETFs come with commissions, while mutual funds do not. Moreover, the passive management style of many ETFs can lead to lower returns compared to mutual funds, which aim to beat the market through active management.
ETF Types
There are many different types of ETFs out there that can be used to meet a wide variety of investment goals. Let’s look at some examples of exchange-traded funds.
Index ETFs
What is an ETF in the stock market? Equity ETFs are those that track a stock index. They vary in terms of the sectors, industries, company sizes, and countries they cover. Equity ETFs are divided into broad market and sector ETFs.
Broad Market ETFs
These ETFs track the performance of the entire market. They can be a useful tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the overall market without having to pick an individual instrument. One of the most significant broad-market ETFs is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF.
Sector ETFs
Sector ETFs offer investment in specific industries or areas of the market, like technology, healthcare, energy, and financials. These ETFs are ideal for investors looking to profit from the overall growth of an industry. Popular sector ETFs include the ARK Innovation ETF.
Bond ETFs
These ETFs invest in fixed-income securities such as government, corporate, and municipal bonds. Bond ETFs expose investors to the fixed-income market, which can be an effective tool for diversifying a portfolio. One of the bond ETFs is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
Commodity ETFs
Commodity ETFs invest in assets like gold, silver, oil, and other natural resources. Commodity ETFs offer investors easy access to the commodity market and can help them hedge during market downturns. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) is an example of a commodity ETF.
Currency ETFs
These ETFs invest in foreign currencies and are used to gain exposure to a particular country’s currency or group of currencies, meaning they can be used to hedge against currency risk. Primary currency ETFs include the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund.
Leveraged ETFs
Leveraged ETFs use derivatives to provide investors with magnified exposure to the underlying assets, typically 2x, 3x, or 5x. For instance, a 2x leveraged ETF based on the S&P 500 would drop 2% if the S&P 500 fell by 1%. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF is one of the most popular leveraged ETFs.
Inverse ETFs
These ETFs allow buyers to invest in the inverse performance of the underlying asset. For example, an inverse ETF that tracks the S&P 500 would go up when the S&P 500 goes down. Inverse ETFs can be useful for hedging against market downturns but also shouldn’t be held long-term. An example of an inverse ETF is the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF.
How to Trade ETF CFDs
Aside from buying ETFs on stock exchanges, you can trade them via CFDs. CFDs are derivative products that allow traders to speculate on the price movement of an underlying asset, such as an ETF. Unlike traditional ETF investing, ETF CFD trading does not involve owning the ETF itself. Instead, traders are exposed to the price movements of the underlying ETF when they open a position.
At FXOpen, we have dozens of ETF contracts for difference (CFDs) that are ideal for short-term trading.
One key benefit of CFD trading is the use of leverage, which allows traders to open larger positions with smaller amounts of capital. This can potentially amplify profits but also magnify losses. All of our ETF CFDs offer 1:5 leverage, so to open a $100 position, you’ll need $20 to cover the margin requirements.
Moreover, ETF CFDs can be opened long or short, allowing traders to profit from both rising and falling markets. This can be especially useful when looking to hedge against an existing position or take advantage of short-term market movements.
Unlike regular ETFs, CFDs are subject to overnight fees, which are charged for holding open positions overnight. However, the same as with regular ETFs, CFD traders receive dividends if applied. The dividend adjustment is positive for buy trades and negative for sell trades.
Consider a Trading Strategy
If you’re thinking of trading ETF CFDs, it’s important to have a trading strategy in place. One approach is a trend-following strategy, which involves identifying and entering in the direction of the trend of the underlying ETF. Many traders use technical analysis tools, like moving averages and trendlines, to help them gauge the direction of a trend.
Seasonal trend trading can also work particularly well for ETF CFDs. Traders using this strategy look at historical market data and identify trends that tend to occur during certain times of the year. For example, a retail sector-based ETF might perform well around the holiday season, so traders could use this expectation to guide the direction of their trade.
Some traders prefer breakout trading - taking positions in ETF CFDs when their prices break through key support or resistance levels. Breakout trading can be especially effective in ETF CFD trading because ETFs tend to be less volatile than individual stocks. This means that when an ETF breaks through a support or resistance level, it may continue in that direction for an extended period, providing traders with an opportunity to profit.
Trading ETF CFDs: Advantages and Disadvantages
While we’ve explained some of the key advantages and disadvantages of ETF CFD trading, there are other factors to consider. Here are some additional advantages and disadvantages of ETF CFDs to be aware of.
Advantages
Flexibility: ETF CFDs can be bought and sold quickly throughout the day, providing traders with the flexibility to adjust their positions in response to intraday market events.
Broad Exposure: ETF CFDs offer exposure to a wide range of global markets and sectors, meaning that traders can diversify their positions and speculate on the price movements of a market or sector as a whole rather than relying on a single asset.
Hedging: This broad exposure also allows traders to use ETF CFDs to hedge against their other positions and reduce their potential losses. For example, a trader long on tech stocks could use a technology-based ETF CFD to short the sector during earnings season to protect from downside risk.
Disadvantages
Only Tradeable During Specific Hours: ETF CFDs are only available to trade when their respective exchanges are open. This might only be 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. EST, whereas other types of CFDs, like forex CFDs, are available to trade 24/5.
Potential Liquidity Issues: During periods of high volatility or low volume trading hours, some ETF CFDs can suffer from poor liquidity. This can widen spreads, increase costs for traders, and heighten the risk of slippage.
Fund Closure: While rare, it is possible for an ETF to cease trading while you have an open CFD position. This would result in the liquidation of the position and the net profit or losses being realised. When combined with leverage, a forced liquidation could lead to significant losses.
Your Next Steps
Now that you have a solid understanding of ETFs and their CFD counterparts, you may wonder how to start trading them. Follow this step-by-step guide to get started:
1. Open an FXOpen Account: At FXOpen, we offer a wide range of ETF contracts for difference (CFDs) that you can begin trading in minutes.
2. Explore ETFs: The next step is to look for ETFs that align with your strategy. You can research factors like potential for growth and historical performance to help determine if an ETF is right for you. You may also want to consider elements like the ETF’s level of diversification and trading volume.
3. Place a Trade: Once you think you’ve found the ETF you want to trade, you can use one of four trading platforms at FXOpen to enter a position. This involves selecting the ETF CFD you want to trade, choosing the appropriate trade size, and setting stop losses to manage risk. At this stage, you could also set some targets for where you’d like to exit your trade.
4. Manage Risk: As your trade progresses, the only thing left to do is manage your position’s risk. You could do this by gradually moving your stop loss closer to breakeven, taking partial profits, and hedging your position with other ETF CFDs.
Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Institutions are selling heavily – momentum is DOWN.📌 🚀 ULTRA AGGRESSIVE XAU/USD TRADING PLAN – FEBRUARY 26, 2025 🔥
🔥 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! 💰🚀
Today, we’re going in with an ultra-aggressive and high-confidence execution plan to capitalize on institutional order flow and high-probability setups. No hesitation, no fear – just precision trading with maximum profitability in mind! 🏆💰🚀
📊 CURRENT MARKET OVERVIEW (1-MIN CHART)
✅ Current Price: $2,910.79✅ High of the Day: $2,920.28✅ Major Resistance (R3): $2,925.10✅ Recently Broken Support (Now Resistance): $2,916 - $2,918✅ Key Dynamic Support (50 EMA): $2,920.28 (Turned Resistance)✅ Psychological Support (S1): $2,900.05
🏦 INSTITUTIONAL ORDER FLOW & LIQUIDITY ZONES
💥 Institutions are selling heavily – momentum is DOWN.💥 Major breakdown below $2,916 confirms bears are in control.💥 Liquidity pool remains below $2,900 – price likely to attack this level.💥 Rejection from order block at $2,916 - $2,918 = HIGH PROBABILITY SELL ZONE.
📊 Are institutions accumulating or distributing?👉 Full-scale distribution, institutions are unloading!
📈 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data Alignment?👉 Institutions reducing longs, increasing shorts = HEAVY BEARISH BIAS!
✅ BEST INDICATOR CONFIRMATIONS
✔ Fibonacci Levels:🔹 38.2% - $2,916 (Rejected, Now Resistance)🔹 50.0% - $2,920.28 (Major Resistance)🔹 61.8% - $2,925 (Final Stop-Loss Zone)
✔ Moving Averages:🔹 50 EMA BELOW 200 EMA = Bearish Trend Confirmation 🚨🔹 Price trading FAR BELOW 50 EMA = Strong Selling Pressure 📉
✔ RSI (7) – Momentum Confirmation:🔹 RSI BELOW 30 = Oversold Conditions, BUT Trend is Bearish 📊🔹 Expect a weak bounce before further decline 🚀
✔ VWAP – Institutional Price Level:🔹 Price BELOW VWAP = Institutions are dumping hard.
✔ MACD – Momentum Shift Confirmation:🔹 MACD Cross Bearish = SELL STRENGTH INCREASING.
📢 ULTRA-AGGRESSIVE TRADE EXECUTION – SELL NOW?
❌ WAIT FOR THE REJECTION AT A HIGHER LEVEL BEFORE SHORTING.
🔴 Ideal SELL Entry: $2,916 - $2,918 (Order Block Retest)🛑 Stop-Loss: Above $2,920.50 (Smart Risk Management)🎯 Take-Profit 1: $2,905 (Quick Scalping Target)🎯 Take-Profit 2: $2,900 (Psychological Level)🎯 Take-Profit 3: $2,875 (Liquidity Pool Target)💰 Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 (Maximum Profit Setup)
🔥 FINAL DECISION – ULTRA-CONFIDENT TRADING STRATEGY!
📌 VERDICT: DO NOT SELL YET! WAIT FOR A REJECTION AT $2,916 - $2,918. 🚀📌 Sell when price retests resistance! Let institutions push price up, then hit them HARD!📌 Take-Profit Target: $2,900 - $2,875 (High-Confidence Bearish Trade).📌 Institutions are still unloading – the selloff is NOT OVER.
🚀 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY – NO FEAR, ONLY PROFITS! 🏆💰🔥📊
XAUUSD SELLAfter a slow structure formation to the upside. The market broke out of the wedge pattern and the support zone around the 2925 price level.
First level target is the 2900 price level and might go a bit further. The USD is showing a bit of Strength which makes it reasonable to sell gold. This is only short term biased.
USD/JPY: Liquidity Grab Below Weekly LowThe chart shows that the price has grabbed liquidity below the weekly low, potentially triggering a bullish reaction. Analyzing the current USD/JPY situation, recent economic data highlights bearish pressure on the dollar due to declining consumer confidence in the U.S. and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the yen is strengthening on the back of more solid economic indicators. Technically, the price has rejected a key demand zone and remains below the psychological threshold of 150.00, which acts as a crucial resistance. If the price confirms a bullish structure on lower timeframes, we could see an upward move towards the 152.00-152.50 area, aligning with a supply zone and moving average confluence. However, a close below recent lows could invalidate this outlook, paving the way for a further drop toward the next support at 146.00.
USD/CHF Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe📉 USD/CHF Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe
📊 Current Price: 0.89450
🔍 Market Structure: Bullish Reversal Setup
📌 Key Levels:
🟢 Demand Zone (Support):
• 0.89139 - 0.89335
🔴 Supply Zones (Resistance):
• 0.90892 - 0.90933
• 0.91171 - 0.91228
• 0.91441 - 0.91552
📈 Entry Plan – Long Setup
🔹 Buy Zone: 0.89139 - 0.89335 (Fib 0.618 - 0.786)
🎯 Target: 0.91171 - 0.91228
⚠️ Key Observations:
• Market is reacting to a strong demand zone.
• Expecting a bullish push towards liquidity zones.
• Break above 0.91552 may indicate a trend continuation.
#FXFOREVER #USDCHF #SmartMoney #SMC #Liquidity #OrderBlock #Forex #Trading
BTC on high time frame,
"Hello traders, focusing on BTC, the price has broken below a trend line and closed under it on high time frames. I anticipate a decline to (FVG) with a target at $84,000. This analysis is based on high time frames. On lower time frames, there might be a move up to $92,000 to complete a pullback for reduced risk.
Trade Plan:
- Entry Point: $92,000
- Take Profit: $84,000
- Stop Loss: $94,500"
If you require further assistance or have any specific questions, feel free to ask!
BIIB - Picture Perfect Market Maker ModelQuite Frankly This Is a Piece of Art.
Ai is been helping Bio Tech massively
Using the 3 Month and 1 Month Time frames we have a perfect Market maker model. Consolidation up top with market manipulation straight to distribution (A,M,D)
- 2 main accumulations before it hit's a perfect fair value gap.
Picture perfect <3
Dogecoin's Bearish Channel Points to 30% Drop, Targeting $0.15Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌
In several of my previous analyses, I have accurately identified and hit all of the gain targets. In this analysis, I aim to provide you with a comprehensive overview of the future price potential for Doge coin , 📚💡
Dogecoin is currently situated within a robust descending channel, nearing a significant daily trendline and a strong resistance zone. As previously noted, it has lost several critical support levels, signaling the potential for further declines. I anticipate a minimum 30% drop, with a target price of $0.15. The support levels marked on the chart are based on historical price data and Fibonacci retracements, reinforcing the likelihood of additional downward movement.📚🙌
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
Dogecoin is in a strong downtrend, nearing key resistance and a major trendline, and I expect a further 30% drop, with a target of $0.15, based on historical data and Fibonacci levels. 📚🎇
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box.
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 26, 2025 GBPUSDOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight rebound, allowing the cable to retrace to the upper boundary of the short-term consolidation and hold bid near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).US consumer sentiment declined in February, adding to concerns of slowing economic growth, with US President Donald Trump reiterating his intention to impose stiff import taxes on his citizens as a trade war threat against the US's closest trading partners.
Despite weakening consumer sentiment, driven mainly by concerns over President Trump's tariff packages, the cable markets remained positive on Tuesday.Despite a new round of attempts by President Trump to start a trade war, markets continue to believe that the US President will find a reason to put aside his own tariff threats at the 11th hour.
The data calendar for the US and UK has relatively few items scheduled for Wednesday, although the market is anticipating the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. Friday will conclude the week with the release of updated US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, a key indicator that investors hope will show that the recent rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not affected core inflation.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.26500, SL 1.26000, TP 1.27300
JP225/NIKKEI "JAPAN 225" Indices CFD Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the JP225/NIKKEI "JAPAN 225" Indices CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (37800) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 38500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 36500 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
JP225/NIKKEI "JAPAN 225" Indices CFD Market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend., driven by several key factors.
➜Fundamental Analysis
1. Economic Indicators: Japan's economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, driven by domestic demand and exports.
2. Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance, with negative interest rates and quantitative easing.
3. Corporate Earnings: Japanese corporate earnings have been improving, driven by strong export growth and domestic demand.
➜➜Macroeconomic Factors
1. Inflation: Japan's inflation rate remains low, at around 0.5%.
2. Interest Rates: The BOJ's negative interest rate policy has helped to keep borrowing costs low.
3. GDP Growth: Japan's GDP growth is expected to be around 1.5% in 2023.
➜➜COT Data
1. Non-Commercial Traders: These traders hold a net long position in JP225 futures, with 52.3% of open interest.
2. Commercial Traders: Commercial traders hold a net short position in JP225 futures, with 47.7% of open interest.
➜➜Market Sentiment Analysis
1. Bullish Sentiment: 53.2% of investors are bullish on JP225.
2. Bearish Sentiment: 46.8% of investors are bearish on JP225.
➜➜Positioning Analysis
1. Long Positions: 56.1% of investors are holding long positions in JP225.
2. Short Positions: 43.9% of investors are holding short positions in JP225.
➜➜Quantitative Analysis
1. Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is at 55.6, indicating a neutral market sentiment.
➜➜Intermarket Analysis
1. Correlation with Other Markets: JP225 has a positive correlation with other Asian markets, such as the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite.
2. Commodity Prices: JP225 has a positive correlation with commodity prices, such as copper and oil.
➜➜News and Events Analysis
1. BOJ Meetings: The BOJ's monetary policy decisions can impact JP225.
2. Japanese Elections: Japanese elections can impact JP225, depending on the outcome.
➜➜Next Trend Move
Based on the analysis, the next trend move for JP225 is likely to be bullish, with a potential target of 40,500.
➜➜Future Prediction
Based on the analysis, the future prediction for JP225 is bullish, with a potential target of 42,500 in the upcoming months.
➜➜Overall Summary Outlook
JP225 is expected to remain in a bullish trend, driven by improving corporate earnings, a moderate economic growth outlook, and accommodative monetary policy. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market volatility and economic uncertainties.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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Gold Analysis May 25⭐️Fundamental Analysis
Market sentiment remained cautious on Tuesday due to concerns over Trump tariffs and Nvidia's upcoming earnings report. The US dollar continued to hold its strength on risk-off sentiment, limiting gold's gains. However, gold prices remained supported by falling US Treasury yields and rising trade war risks.
Bond yields fell on a strong auction and weak PMI data, raising expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. Meanwhile, trade tensions escalated as the Trump administration considered tightening controls on chip exports to China.
⭐️Technical Analysis
Gold prices are still operating in a wedge of 2928 and 2952. The 2958 zone is also quite easy to create a false ATH. 2968-2970 acts as the most important resistance for Gold at the moment, which is considered the weekly resistance level. Watch out for gold falling, there could be a deep drop to 2906-2900.
Reflection on the connection between Trump's policies and tariffTrump’s trade policy follows Sun Tzu’s advice—he keeps his plans secret and acts suddenly but is sometimes open to negotiation.
His trade war aims to reduce trade deficits and increase government revenue. While China, Mexico, and the EU are his main targets, Canada has also been affected.
Mexico and Canada secured a 30-day break from tariffs by promising stricter border control and measures against fentanyl trafficking.
China responded with small counter-tariffs on U.S. oil, coal, and gas, investigated U.S. companies, and filed a complaint with the WTO.
Trump has left the extra tariffs in place and is in no hurry to negotiate with China’s President X!!
These trade tensions have led to market instability. The euro is struggling due to tariff risks, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are affected by U.S.-China tensions. The Canadian dollar has recovered slightly, but its future depends on how border issues are handled.
Investors are watching tariff news closely but are also focusing on economic data like U.S. job reports, inflation, and central bank decisions. European and UK economic updates, Norway’s oil market outlook, and Trump’s meeting with Japan’s leader could also influence the markets.
I highlighted an important factor above that could impact the value of certain stocks. What do you think these stocks might be?
China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil (10%) and coal/LNG (15%) could negatively impact several American companies in the energy sector, especially those that export these commodities to China. The main companies affected might include:
Oil Companies
ExxonMobil (XOM)
Chevron (CVX)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
These companies rely on global crude oil demand, and tariffs could reduce their export opportunities to China, potentially lowering revenues.
Coal Companies
Peabody Energy (BTU)
Arch Resources (ARCH)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
China is a major coal consumer, and a 15% tariff could make U.S. coal exports less competitive, favoring suppliers from Australia or Indonesia instead.
LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Companies
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Tellurian (TELL)
Sempra Energy (SRE)
China is one of the world's largest LNG importers. A tariff could push Chinese buyers toward alternative suppliers like Qatar and Australia, potentially reducing U.S. LNG exports and affecting revenue growth.
Broader Impacts
Shipping & Logistics: Companies involved in transporting these commodities, like Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), could see reduced demand.
Manufacturing & Equipment: Companies like Caterpillar (CAT), which provides equipment for oil, gas, and coal industries, may experience indirect effects if production slows down.
Thus China’s tariffs could reduce demand for U.S. energy exports, hurt profits for oil, coal, and LNG companies, and shift trade flows to other countries.
Yes, you’re seeing it correctly—AMR is there as well, and indeed, it has already been on my watchlist. Based on this, I’m analyzing the chart from a technical perspective, and it’s possible that I will short AMR using a put option, because AMR (Alpha Metallurgical Resources) is heavily tied to the coal industry, so China's 15% tariff on U.S. coal could negatively impact demand, potentially leading to a decline in AMR’s stock price. If China reduces coal imports from the U.S. and shifts to other suppliers, it could hurt AMR’s revenue.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 26th February 2025)Bias: Bearish
USD News(Red Folder):
-None
Analysis:
-Strong drop from previous daily closure
-Waiting for retest and forming bearish structure on 0.618 fib level
-Potential SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 2940
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Trade Idea: XAUUSD LONG ( BUY LIMIT )Technical Analysis:
• Daily Chart:
• Strong bullish trend with price at all-time highs (2924.45).
• MACD is showing high bullish momentum.
• RSI is at 63.76, near overbought but still room for upside.
• 15-Minute Chart:
• Recent pullback to 2903.40 and strong bounce.
• MACD is crossing bullish from oversold levels.
• RSI at 64.92, confirming bullish strength.
• 3-Minute Chart:
• Bullish breakout forming.
• MACD and RSI support short-term continuation.
2. Fundamental Analysis:
• Gold is benefiting from inflation fears & rate cut expectations.
• Geopolitical tensions and central bank buying support further upside.
• U.S. dollar weakness & declining bond yields provide tailwinds.
Entry: 2920.00
• Stop Loss (SL): 2905.00 (15 pips below recent low)
• Take Profit (TP): 2950.00 (30 pips above entry)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 2:1
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD