Get started

Fundamental Analysis

GOLD → Fundamental Swing. What to expect from gold?FX:XAUUSD updates the low to 2643. The reason - change of fundamental background and outflow of funds to safer assets... But, Powell supported the metal by lowering the US interest rate.... Overall, the fundamental backdrop for gold has changed to negative. The impact is not short-term and can only increase further, but the metal will be supported by the Chinese market and the Middle East conflict. Yesterday gold strengthened to 2710, testing key resistance on the back of 0.25% interest rate cut. Powell gave a hint that the Feds are generally willing to continue the easing course. The environment is quite interesting... Technically, gold is in a local descending channel and below 0.5 Fibo. If the bears keep the 0.5 - 0.7 fibo zone under their control, gold may continue to weaken towards 2650 - 2600. Resistance levels: 2696, 2714, 2720 Support levels: 2685, 2652 Technically, after a busy week, the metal may go into a consolidation phase, for example in the area of 2714 - 2685, but it is still worth paying attention to resistance and support from which strong moves can be formed... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
XAUUSD: 8/11 Today’s Market Strategy and SignalsGold technical analysis Daily resistance 2761, support below 2600 Four-hour resistance 2720, support below 2678 Gold operation suggestions: After a sharp drop of nearly $100 on Wednesday, gold rose by nearly $70 yesterday. From the 4-hour chart, it stabilized and rebounded from the 2643 line, and 2700 was lost and regained. Today's opening is near the Bollinger middle rail. The hourly chart rebounded too fast yesterday. Today's support below is 2678, and the upper resistance is around 2718-20. The overall intraday support relies on this range to maintain high selling and low buying. BUY:2778near SL:2774 SELL:2720near SL:2725 The strategy only provides trading directions. Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
TVC:GOLD
by ActuaryJ
2
USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid !!USDJPY Daily Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected Amid Fundamental Shifts 08/11/2024 Introduction In today's analysis of USDJPY, the pair appears to carry a slight bearish bias, driven by significant macroeconomic factors. These include recent economic data from Japan, U.S. dollar movements, and evolving global risk sentiment. In this article, we’ll explore the critical factors affecting USDJPY today, helping you stay ahead in your trading decisions. --- Key Drivers Influencing USDJPY Today 1. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Stance The Bank of Japan has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, but recent statements hint at a gradual shift if inflation stabilizes around target levels. Markets are speculating on potential policy adjustments, increasing support for the Japanese yen (JPY). Any tightening signals from the BoJ would strengthen the JPY, adding bearish pressure to USDJPY. 2. U.S. Federal Reserve’s Caution on Rate Hikes The Federal Reserve’s recent statements show a cautious stance on further interest rate hikes due to mixed economic data and inflation uncertainties. This dovish outlook has weakened the U.S. dollar (USD) across major currency pairs. A softer USD supports a bearish bias for USDJPY, especially as U.S. bond yields decline, making the JPY more appealing. 3. Global Risk Sentiment Impacting Safe-Haven Flows The JPY is considered a safe-haven currency and often gains during periods of market uncertainty. With mixed global economic indicators and recent geopolitical tensions, investors may lean towards the JPY, contributing to USDJPY’s bearish potential. 4. Technical Factors Supporting a Bearish Bias USDJPY recently tested key resistance levels and failed to break higher, adding to the bearish sentiment. The pair is also trading close to its 50-day moving average, a significant level that, if broken, could signal further downward movement. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bearish Outlook Moving Averages and RSI USDJPY is hovering near its 50-day moving average, a critical support level. A sustained break below this line may confirm a bearish trend. Additionally, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing early signs of downward momentum, signaling potential selling pressure ahead. MACD and Volume Analysis The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is showing bearish divergence, reinforcing the expectation of a bearish trend for USDJPY. Volume analysis also shows a decline in buying pressure, aligning with the anticipated downward movement. --- Conclusion The combination of a cautious Fed, potential policy changes from the BoJ, and current risk sentiment suggests a slight bearish bias for USDJPY today. Traders should keep an eye on key technical levels and monitor any news impacting the USD and JPY for further confirmation. --- SEO Tags: - #USDJPYforecast - #USDJPYanalysis - #USDJPYtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingUSDJPY - #JapaneseYenOutlook - #USDJPYtoday - #USDJPYnews - #ForexMarketAnalysis - #USDJPYprediction
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected Amid Global NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Slight Bullish Bias Expected Amid Global and Domestic Influences 08/11/2024 Introduction Today's analysis on NZDUSD presents a potential slight bullish bias, driven by recent fundamental and macroeconomic factors that influence the currency pair. In this article, we’ll dive into the primary factors shaping NZDUSD's movement, helping you make more informed decisions. Key drivers include New Zealand’s economic data, U.S. dollar strength, and global risk sentiment. --- Key Drivers Influencing NZDUSD Today 1. New Zealand Economic Data and RBNZ Policy The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a stable interest rate, but recent comments hinted at a potential for future hikes if inflationary pressures persist. Positive employment data and steady GDP growth are also supporting the NZ dollar (NZD). This dovish stance from the RBNZ suggests economic resilience, giving a slight bullish momentum to the NZD. 2. U.S. Dollar Dynamics and Interest Rates The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has recently experienced fluctuations due to a series of mixed U.S. economic data points. With the Federal Reserve showing caution on additional rate hikes, the USD is facing downward pressure. A weaker USD directly supports NZDUSD’s bullish trend, especially if U.S. bond yields remain low. 3. Commodity Market Impact New Zealand is a major exporter of dairy, meat, and other agricultural products, and a rebound in these sectors contributes to the NZD's strength. Rising dairy prices in global markets add further support, as they tend to attract investors looking at NZD as a commodity-driven currency. 4. Risk Sentiment and Market Confidence Risk sentiment in the financial markets remains cautiously positive. The NZD, typically perceived as a risk-on currency, benefits from any signs of global economic stability. Positive risk sentiment fuels demand for the NZD, positioning NZDUSD for further bullish pressure. --- Technical Analysis Indicators Supporting a Bullish Outlook Moving Averages NZDUSD has been trading above its 50-day moving average, often interpreted as a bullish indicator. If it maintains this level, it could suggest sustained upward momentum. RSI and MACD Indicators Currently, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is within a neutral to slightly bullish range, indicating potential room for upward movement before reaching overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) line has crossed above the signal line, supporting the bullish outlook. --- Conclusion Given the factors of strong domestic data, dovish U.S. monetary policy signals, and positive commodity prices, NZDUSD could exhibit a slight bullish bias today. However, market participants should monitor risk sentiment and any changes in the USD's strength, as these will likely influence NZDUSD's direction. --- SEO Tags: - #NZDUSDforecast - #NZDUSDtechnicalanalysis - #ForexTradingNZDUSD - #NewZealandDollarOutlook - #NZDUSDtoday - #NZDUSDnews - #NZDUSDanalysis - #ForexMarket - #NZDUSDprediction
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
1
GBPNZD - How will the BOE decision affect the pound?The GBPNZD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of downward correction, we can see the demand zones and buy this currency pair within those zones with appropriate risk reward. The Bank of England has lowered its interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%. According to the Bank’s monetary statement, GDP is projected to grow by 0.2% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous quarter (September forecast: 0.3%) and increase by 0.3% in Q4 this year. The goal is to keep the interest rate restrictive enough until the risks of inflation persistently returning to the 2% target diminish. Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England’s governor, noted that the rate of inflation decline has been faster than expected. However, further reduction in service price inflation is still needed to maintain the consumer price index at the 2% target level, and sufficient spare capacity will be essential to reach this goal in the medium term. The rise in the employer’s national insurance contribution, included in the budget, is expected to have a slightly inflationary effect on prices and a marginally negative impact on wages and corporate profitability. The combined effect of increased employer national insurance and minimum wage is likely to raise hiring costs, with the net impact on inflation yet to be determined. Adrian Orr, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s governor, highlighted geopolitical tensions as a significant risk to the economy, expressing concern over the economy lagging behind the interest rate cuts. Orr also emphasized that climate change poses an existential threat to New Zealand, calling for serious attention to this issue. This view reflects deep economic and environmental concerns in the country. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report indicates that the financial system remains resilient despite the economic downturn, with risks under control. Banks anticipate a slight increase in non-performing loans, although this level remains below what was experienced during previous economic recessions. Debt servicing costs have peaked and are now declining, with mortgage interest rates dropping over the past six months. Although many households and businesses are under financial pressure and some borrowers face challenges with rising unemployment, domestic economic challenges persist.
Long
by Ali_PSND
1
Analysis of Strides Pharma (NSE: STAR) - 30-Minute TimeframeHead and Shoulders Pattern: The chart shows a completed head and shoulders pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern indicating a potential decline after an uptrend. The pattern has been completed with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder visible, followed by a drop confirming the neckline break. Double Bottom Formation: Below the head and shoulders pattern, there is a double bottom pattern (labeled as "Bottom 1" and "Bottom 2"). This pattern suggests that after the decline, the stock found support around the ₹1,450 level and began to rise, indicating a potential reversal from bearish to bullish. The breakout above the neckline of the double bottom is an early bullish signal. Bullish Flag: Currently, the stock is forming a bullish flag pattern, which often suggests continuation after an initial uptrend. This is a consolidation phase before a possible breakout to higher levels. The breakout from this flag could target higher levels around ₹1,600-₹1,650 as marked on the chart. Targets: Short-term Target: If the stock breaks out of the bullish flag, the immediate target is around ₹1,600. Extended Target: With sustained momentum, further targets could be around ₹1,650 and ultimately ₹1,725. Support and Resistance: Support Levels: ₹1,500 acts as an immediate support level. Resistance Levels: The primary resistance is around ₹1,600, with further resistance at ₹1,650. Volume Analysis: Volume analysis indicates a notable increase during the breakout from the double bottom, confirming buying interest. Watch for volume spikes accompanying any breakout from the bullish flag for confirmation. Fundamental Analysis of Strides Pharma Company Overview: Strides Pharma is a prominent player in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on the development and manufacturing of generics and complex products. The company has a strong presence in regulated markets, including the U.S., Europe, and Australia. Revenue and Earnings: The company has shown steady revenue growth, supported by new product launches and expanding market share. However, earnings can be volatile due to pricing pressures in the U.S. generics market and regulatory changes. Recent quarters have shown signs of recovery in margins due to cost optimization and new high-margin product launches. R&D and Product Pipeline: Strides Pharma invests significantly in research and development, focusing on niche and complex generics that offer competitive advantages and higher margins. This focus positions the company well for future growth in both established and emerging markets. Financial Health: The company maintains a balanced debt-to-equity ratio, but investors should monitor any increase in debt levels, especially for capital expenditure and expansion. Positive cash flow trends in recent quarters have strengthened its financial position, aiding in further R&D investments and market expansion. Sector Outlook: The pharmaceutical sector has strong tailwinds with growing global demand for generic drugs, especially in emerging markets. Strides Pharma, with its broad portfolio and strategic focus, is well-placed to benefit from these trends. Conclusion: Technical Outlook: Strides Pharma is showing a bullish setup with a completed double bottom and a current bullish flag pattern. A breakout from the flag could lead to targets at ₹1,600 and potentially ₹1,725 if the momentum continues. Fundamental Outlook: The company has solid fundamentals, supported by its strategic focus on complex generics and a growing product pipeline. While revenue growth is steady, investors should be aware of market-specific risks such as regulatory challenges.
NSE:STARLong
by TheWealthyInvestorbyDSAB
World gold price recovers despite high USDWorld gold prices recover despite the high USD. Recorded at 9:50 a.m. on November 8, the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's fluctuations against six major currencies, was at 104.430 points (up 0.19%). According to Kitco, central banks cutting interest rates, a wave of buying, and recently released US economic data... are supporting the recovery of gold prices. On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve (FED) continued to cut interest rates. This was a move that many people had predicted and long expected. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. Interest rates are currently trading in a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The FED did not provide much guidance on the future path of monetary policy. They noted that the economy continued to grow at a solid pace. Not only the FED, the Bank of England (BoE) has also just decided to cut interest rates further. In a long-awaited move, the BoE cut the bank rate to 4.75% on Thursday. In addition, gold prices rebounded sharply after the release of US labor market data. Mr. Ernest Hoffman - market analyst at Kitco News - said that the US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that initial jobless claims increased to 221,000 in the week ended November 2. This figure was completely in line with expectations, as the general estimate forecast the number of claims was 221,000. 🔥 GOLD BUY 2683 - 2681🔥 ✅TP1: 2690 ✅TP2: 2700 ✅TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2675
TVC:GOLDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold price today, November 8: Reversing to go upGold prices jumped today as the US Federal Reserve (FED) cut interest rates by 0.25% as the market had predicted. Accordingly, the US base interest rate fell to 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time in 2024 that the FED has cut interest rates to reduce inflation to the 2% target and boost economic growth. Lower interest rates have put pressure on the value of the USD and bond yields to fall, after rising sharply on November 7 - the time Donald Trump was elected US President. Since then, gold prices have become attractive to investors. Bloomberg news agency reported that central banks around the world are concerned that Mr. Trump's policies could lead to slower global economic growth and higher inflation. Analysts say that in the long term, the world gold price will continue to heat up because President Donald Trump intends to impose high import taxes. At that time, the price of goods in the US will increase, affecting inflation, causing the USD to depreciate, pushing the price of gold up. 🔥 XAUUSD BUY 2683 - 2681🔥 ✅TP1: 2690 ✅TP2: 2700 ✅TP3: OPEN 🚫SL: 2675
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
XAUUSD - 2024/11/08Looks like XAUUSD has already made the move that I was waiting for during Asian session. I will monitor the market to look for a potential retrace back into the 1h volume sell zone to take more shorts, but at the moment if the market does reverse back to entry I would be skeptical to enter because the market can easily just continue the bull run. Even though we had a strong push down with the US elections, XAUUUSD is still in a bullish market and needs to be taken into account when looking for shorts.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VizeCapital
TG Therapeutics (TGTX) Analysis Company Overview: TG Therapeutics NASDAQ:TGTX is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative treatments for B-cell diseases. The company's recent FDA approval of BRIUMVI for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) marks a significant milestone, positioning TG Therapeutics to capitalize on a high-demand therapeutic area. Key Developments: FDA Approval of BRIUMVI: The approval of BRIUMVI for relapsing multiple sclerosis opens access to a substantial market, with nearly 1 million individuals in the U.S. affected by RMS. This provides a significant revenue opportunity, with BRIUMVI offering a new treatment option that has shown favorable efficacy, safety, and convenient dosing compared to existing therapies. Positive Market Reception: CEO Michael S. Weiss has expressed strong confidence in BRIUMVI's potential, noting positive feedback from both healthcare providers and patients. The drug's unique value proposition lies in its twice-yearly dosing, which is more convenient than the monthly or quarterly regimens offered by competitors, enhancing patient compliance and satisfaction. Pipeline and Future Growth: The successful launch of BRIUMVI is a testament to TG Therapeutics' ability to introduce novel treatments. This sets a strong foundation for future developments in B-cell disease therapies, as the company explores additional indications and expands its pipeline. BRIUMVI's performance in the market could pave the way for further advancements in TG Therapeutics' product offerings. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on TGTX above the $21.00-$22.00 range, driven by the strong initial reception of BRIUMVI and its potential to capture a significant share of the RMS market. Upside Potential: Our price target for TG Therapeutics is set at $34.00-$35.00, reflecting the expected revenue growth from BRIUMVI and the company's strategic positioning in the biopharma sector. 🚀 TGTX—Leading the Way in B-cell Disease Therapies! #BiopharmaInnovation #MultipleSclerosis #NewTreatmentOptions
NASDAQ:TGTXLong
by Richtv_official
EURAUD long Friday Nov 8, 2024A long trade on the EURAUD currency pair based on interest rate differential between the EUR and the AUD. Trading is based almost entirely on technical indicators that use past price action to forecast future price action. However, the trader who ignores fundamental forces that move the markets is at a disadvantage to traders who factor fundamental data into their trading decisions. The fundamental data that have the most effect on exchange rates are interest rates, which affect the perceived value of currencies. While central bank rates are not volatile, the yields on government bonds, such as the U.S. 10-year treasury note, fluctuate on all time frames in global bond markets. Those yields reflect the expectation the market has as to where future central bank rates will go. Bond yields are often a leading indicator of interest rates and of exchange rates. In the forex market, the metric that applies to a currency pair is the interest rate differential, especially the delta, or change in the interest rate differential, on various time frames. This trade shows a case where movement of the interest rate differential, expressed in basis points, in the positive direction was a leading indicator of movement of the EURAUD currency pair in the same direction.
Long
by Zee111666
Will USDCHF reverse its course due to the new SNB's prospect?Macro theme: - Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.6% in Oct—the lowest in over three years—raising expectations that the SNB may opt for a more significant 0.5% rate cut in Dec to keep inflation within its 0-2% target range. - Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% but issued a slightly more hawkish statement. Technical theme: - USDCHF broke the descending channel after testing both EMAs, which just golden crossed each other, indicating a bullish momentum exists. - USDCHF may retest the broken descending trendline, confluence with the support level around 0.8693-0.8700 before resuming its upward movement to retest 0.8825. - On the contrary, a closing below 08626 may prompt a deeper correction to a nearby support around 0.8550. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 08, 2024 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment 18:00 EET. USD - FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks EURUSD: The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining towards 1.07800 due to increased demand for the US dollar during Asian trading hours on Friday. Furthermore, the prospect of increased tariffs under the Trump administration is exerting downward pressure on the euro relative to the US dollar. Analysts anticipate further market movements based on the release of the expanded Michigan consumer sentiment data for November, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Michelle Bowman on Friday. As anticipated, the US Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting on Thursday. The US central bank is keen to avoid any further weakening of the labour market and still anticipates a gradual decline in inflation towards the Fed's 2% target. It is anticipated that the Fed will continue to reduce interest rates at forthcoming meetings, although the precise timing remains unclear. The Fed will continue to assess data in order to determine the appropriate pace and direction of interest rate cuts. Mr. Trump has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, which has exerted downward pressure on the euro. The European Union has the second-largest trade deficit with the United States in the world and is the largest exporter to the United States, according to JPMorgan. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is reducing interest rates at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve. This may result in a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. The ECB has already reduced rates three times this year due to declining inflation risks in the Eurozone. Growing expectations of another rate cut are contributing to the euro's decline in the near term. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.08000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
FOMC and Powell support GOLD, bearish outlook still prevailsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading rose nearly 2% yesterday when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as market predicted, causing the US Dollar to plunge and giving gold a boost. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, while policymakers noted a "broad deterioration" in the job market. Officials voted unanimously to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Trump's presidential election victory will not directly affect monetary policy. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have put pressure on the US dollar and bond yields, while boosting the investment appeal of non-yielding gold. FOMC content In their monetary policy statement, officials acknowledged the economy is growing steadily despite slowing labor market conditions. They admitted inflation was close to the Fed's 2% target but still remained slightly high. Fed policymakers also noted that the risks to achieving their dual mandates were “roughly balanced” but acknowledged uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement said: "The Committee believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are balanced and that there is uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee concerned about the risk of achieving his dual mandate." While policymakers noted “progress” in achieving the inflation target, they neglected to mention “becoming more confident that inflation can move steadily toward 2 percent.” sustainable”. “Labour market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low,” the Fed statement said. Powell said the election results would not affect decision-making in the short term and that there was flexibility in future policy direction. At his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell avoided giving specific guidance on the future direction of interest rates, leaving room for flexibility at the December meeting and beyond. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. He acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains restrained as officials aim to return interest rates to neutral levels. Regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, Powell said if the labor market weakens or slows as it approaches neutrality, the Fed could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, he clarified that no final decision has been made yet. Powell also said that in the short term, the presidential election results will not directly affect monetary policy. General assessment The Fed's 25 basis point cut boosted gold prices, on the other hand, Powell made very clear statements about the possibility and prospect of cutting interest rates and this is not beneficial for the US Dollar. A very basic knowledge is that the US Dollar is controlled by the Fed and not under the power of the US President. Therefore, even in the event that Trump is elected and boosts the US Dollar, it will still be restrained by the policy of cutting interest rates. Only if Trump can completely eliminate the Fed will the US Dollar have nothing to show for it. prevent. Of course, this is without precedent, nor has any President been able to do this. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has recovered strongly from the 0.618% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the channel, it is still in a downtrend with the price channel as the short-term trend. On the other hand, gold's upward momentum has also been limited by the EMA21 level, and it still has enough bearish conditions when the Relative Strength Index is also showing signs of folding down from the 50 level area. If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the potential to fall a bit further with a short-term target of around 2,684 USD rather than 2,668 USD. However, in case gold moves above the EMA21 level it will tend to increase further to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Therefore, for open selling positions should be protected above EMA21 quite "strictly." During the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,684 – 2,668USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2740 →Take Profit 1 2729 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2724 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2672 →Take Profit 1 2683 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2688
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
Market Analysis: A Breakout to New Highs, but Will It Hold?After a prolonged over 250-day range, BTC has broken out to a new all-time high (ATH) above the $75K zone, fueled by renewed interest following recent election sentiment and influential media coverage. This breakout marks a key technical development, but the question remains: Can it sustain? Key Observations and Price Action Insights New High Zone ($75K): The breakout above $75K looks technically healthy, with price action showing strength and bullish sentiment. To build confidence in a continued uptrend, BTC would ideally hold above this zone consolidating through few days, allowing for a strong base before seeking higher levels. Potential Retracement Levels: Mid-Range Support ($63K): If the current level fails to hold, BTC could revisit the mid-range support around $63K, a key level for possible consolidation and renewed buying interest. Lower Range Support ( GETTEX:52K ): In the unlikely event of a more substantial correction, BTC could target the lower boundary near $52K. However, strong interest from high-profile figures and positive sentiment may help mitigate any significant pullbacks. Strategy Considerations: Traders should proceed with caution while tracking these key levels. Although sentiment and momentum remain robust, monitoring BTC’s behavior at these crucial zones will be essential for managing potential risks. The coming days could set the tone for a continuation or indicate a reversion to established levels.
by hazaq
How Yen Trends & Wage Growth Signal Opportunities in Nikkei 225 By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of Nikkei 225 Index: Since our last trade idea ( ), the Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded from around 36,215 on 9 September to 39,480 at the close on 6 November, a gain of about 9%. Nevertheless, Japanese equities are yet to hit their July record highs, as a stronger Yen, political uncertainty, and potentially higher interest rates weighed on sentiment. Green Shoots in Japan: In our previous posting, we highlighted how the fundamentals behind Japanese equities remained unchanged despite a bout of volatility in August and September. We viewed the August drawdown in equities as temporary and believed it was tied to headwinds in the global economy rather than Japan itself. Rising real wages provided further optimism that a virtuous wage-price spiral could be achieved, potentially boosting consumer spending and sentiment. The latest data on wages supported our view, as Japanese workers’ base salaries saw the largest increase in over 3 decades, backing the BOJ’s view that the economy remains on the recovery track. Base pay advanced 2.6% YoY in September, up from 2.4% in August, the strongest increase in over 31 years. Scheduled cash earnings, a more stable measure of wage trends that excludes overtime pay, rose by 2.9% YoY, up from 2.8%. However, real wages fell for a 2nd straight month. Nevertheless, wage hike momentum remains steady despite pockets of weakness, this could fuel spending and lead to demand-led inflation. At the same time, corporate reforms and growing shareholder activism have also led to higher dividends, more share buybacks and stronger balance sheets. While the BOJ kept rates unchanged at its last policy meeting, there is still a possibility of another rate hike further down the road. US Elections and USD/JPY: On 6 November, the Nikkei 225 closed up by 2.61%, as the USD/JPY currency pair rose to 153.93 at 15:39 SGT, potentially on the verge of testing the key psychological level of 155. The negative correlation between the Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY has been well documented, with a weaker Yen benefitting many export-heavy Japanese firms such as Toyota and Fast Retailing, parent of Uniqlo. The rise in the Dollar was driven by an increase in yields across the Treasuries curve following the US election results; as traders positioned for Trump’s tariffs to drive up inflation and tax cuts to boost the budget deficit. In our view, we believe that the USD/JPY currency pair has more room to extend its rally for the remainder of the year. This could potentially provide further support for the Nikkei 225. Back in 2016, Trump’s election victory saw the Dollar Index surge over 3% in October, similar to what happened last month. However, the Dollar Index rallied another 3% in November 2016. We could see a similar picture playing out this year. We also expect the Fed to slow its pace of rate cuts, given the inflation-inducing policies Trump is expected to push. BOJ: To Hike or Not to Hike? Following Donald Trump’s election win, Japan’s chief currency official Atsushi Mimura said that “we’re seeing one-sided, sudden moves in the currency market” as the yen weakened towards the 155 level against the Dollar. Mimura added that the central bank will monitor markets with a “very high sense of urgency”. A weak Yen has the potential to boost imported inflation, putting pressure on the BOJ to raise rates. We expect to see verbal intervention from officials if Dollar strength remains in place. A breach of the 160 level could prompt actual currency intervention from the government. Japan’s Politics The situation is further complicated by the recent loss of a parliamentary majority by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in last month’s lower house election. This outcome could force the LDP to form a new coalition, potentially leading to power-sharing agreements that introduce political uncertainty. Such developments could delay the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) anticipated rate hike, with opposition parties—some of which may become pivotal in coalition negotiations—advocating for a more dovish monetary stance. Notably, Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP), has called for a six-month delay before any further rate hikes. As a result, the prospects of delayed BOJ tightening, combined with rising US yields driven by the policies of a potential Trump administration, have led to a widening of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, now at its most pronounced since July. This dynamic has exerted upward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The US-Japan 10-year yield spread has increased from its September low, which aligns with the recent rise in the USD/JPY currency pair. () Nikkei 225 Outlook & Trading Opportunity: In our view, we see Trump's election victory as tactically positive for Japanese equities and the Nikkei 225. The underlying economic fundamentals remain robust, with real wages on a positive growth trajectory. The resurgence of healthy inflation coupled with rising wages could trigger a virtuous cycle of price and wage increases, which would provide a broad economic boost and, by extension, benefit the equity market. Trump's election victory could also alter the flow of capital into 2 of Asia's largest equity markets. Specifically, as investors adopt a more cautious stance towards potential tariffs on China, we anticipate that funds will increasingly flow into Japan. We expect the Nikkei 225 to benefit from Trump’s inflationary policies - which could keep US interest rates high, which could in turn strengthen the Dollar and weaken the Yen to the advantage of the Japanese equity market. However, upside could be limited given the risk of a currency intervention by Japanese authorities to stem Yen weakness. If China's expected stimulus measures fall short of market expectations, we anticipate that investors may rotate their positions out of China and into Japan, a pattern we already observed during the lead-up to China’s previous round of stimulus announcements.. Expressing Our View: We maintain our previous trade setup: Long Nikkei 225 Index Futures Based on a Fibonacci Extension drawn from the October 2023 to the July 2024 high, the daily chart shows the index rebounding from the 5 August low of 31,156; but has since consolidated within 37,700 – 39,500. If Dollar strength remains, we expect an appreciation in USD/JPY to send the Nikkei 225 Index upwards towards resistance at the 0.786% extension level around 40,500 within the month of November. If breached, we see the next resistance level at around 43,000 – 43,050. • Entry Level: 39,000 • Target Level: 40,500 (1-Month target) • Stop Loss Level: 38,500 (trailing stop preferred) • Profit at Target: 1500 x ¥500= ¥750,000 • Loss at Stop: 500 x ¥500= ¥250,500 • Reward: Risk Ratio: 3x Trade Nikkei 225 with Phillip Nova now
INDEX:NKYLong
by phillip_nova
FBTC: Break Out After 12 Months of Sideways - DCA TradeAll the white lines are buys. My weighted average price per share would be somewhere in the middle. I Dollar Cost Averaged into the position from basically the launch of the product on exchanges earlier this year, Say March 24. The trade looks to finally be playing out. Long Term Hold position for me, and will add on higher timeframe (1 Day, 3 Day, Weekly) oversold conditions outside a normal standard deviation. Fun time to be a trader at the moment.
CBOE:FBTCLong
by BitInfo12
GOLD established a falling structure after a sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable after yesterday's plunge. The current gold price is about 2,660 USD/ounce. Previously on Wednesday (November 6), after Trump was elected President of the United States, investors rushed to buy US Dollar, OANDA:XAUUSD plummeted to its lowest level in 3 weeks. As sent to readers in many articles about the election of Trump, a shock decline in gold is inevitable because Trump's "steering wheel" will support the Dollar from general economic policies. Trump's victory will boost the dollar as he is expected to propose new tariffs that could cause a spike in inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle. Fed decision upcoming After cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time. The US economic calendar today (Thursday) will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Trump and the Fed Trump's economic policy proposes imposing taxes, increasing the fiscal deficit, and reducing taxes. His economic advice conflicts with the Fed's anti-inflation policy. Therefore, the Fed will be forced to take a very cautious approach when loosening monetary policy. The risk of rising inflation after Trump introduced new taxes could slow the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is very important because Trump and the Fed are becoming opposing, it is likely that Trump will destroy all previous efforts of the Fed to curb inflation. For more than 70 years, the Federal Reserve has operated as an independent government agency in the United States, but this tradition may soon be overturned. After declaring victory on Wednesday (November 6), Donald Trump is preparing to talk about "interest rates" after taking office in January 2025, insisting his intuition is better than the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Powell. For more than 70 years, the US central bank has operated as an independent government agency. When officials meet to decide interest rates, they will not need to consult with the president and other elected officials. That's because, as the former Fed chairman famously said, “The job of the central bank is to get rid of the drinking bowl just as the party is getting started.” In other words, they have to make unpopular decisions that ultimately seek to bring long-term benefits to the economy. However, once President-elect Trump returns to the White House, the independence the Fed has maintained for many years could be compromised. Trump's statement was posted on CNN: “I think the president should at least have a say. I feel very strongly,” Trump said about the Fed's interest rate decision at a press conference in August. Trump added: “I make a lot of money, I'm very successful and I think in many situations I have better abilities than the people at the Fed or the president.” Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After yesterday's strong price drop, gold has all the technical conditions to decrease in price through the price channel. The fact that gold was sold below the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21) caused the bullish price structure to be completely broken. Currently, gold is recovering slightly after receiving support from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and once this level is further broken below, gold tends to continue to decline with a subsequent target level of around 2,600 USD around the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement area. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index continues to point downward after breaking the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for gold as the RSI's next target is 25. Showing that the downward momentum remains quite wide in the front. In the near future, technically, gold has the potential to decrease in price with the price channel being the short-term trend. As long as gold remains in the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the bearish outlook will still be prioritized, and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,640 – 2,645USD Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684 – 2,697USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2706⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2711 →Take Profit 1 2701 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2696 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2633 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1