Weak US Economic Data Could Drive Prices Higher - 28.03.2025Gold prices have been on a strong upward trend, reaching a high of $3,059. The upcoming US economic data release on March 28, 2025, could provide new momentum for gold, particularly with the following key indicators in focus:
- Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
- Personal Spending (MoM)
- Personal Income (MoM)
Current forecasts suggest a slowdown in inflation and weaker economic activity, which could create a bullish environment for gold.
Economic Data Expectations and Market Implications
The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected to rise by 0.2%, down from the previous 0.3%. This signals a slowdown in price pressures, increasing the likelihood of the Fed adopting a more dovish stance in the coming months. If inflation continues to decline, expectations for rate cuts could strengthen, which would be supportive of gold prices.
Personal spending is forecasted to increase by 0.3% - 0.5%, a modest recovery from the previous decline of -0.2%. However, this remains a weak rebound, suggesting that consumers are still cautious. Slower spending means less inflationary pressure, which could further encourage the Fed to ease monetary policy.
Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% - 0.4%, significantly lower than the previous 0.9% increase. A slowdown in income growth could weigh on consumer spending and overall economic activity, reinforcing the case for lower interest rates.
Impact on Gold Prices
The combination of declining inflation, weak spending, and slower income growth increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner rather than later. Gold, which tends to perform well in a lower interest rate environment, could see further gains as a result.
Key bullish factors for gold include:
Lower inflation expectations: A weaker Core PCE Price Index supports a more accommodative Fed stance.
Sluggish consumer spending: Less inflationary pressure gives the Fed room to cut rates.
Slower income growth: Weaker earnings could further dampen economic momentum, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
The main risk to gold prices would be a surprise shift in market sentiment. If the Fed remains cautious and delays rate cuts, gold could face short-term resistance. However, given the current data outlook, the overall trend remains positive.
Trading Idea: Long Position on Gold (XAU/USD)
Given the softer economic data, gold prices could continue their bullish momentum. If inflation shows signs of easing and economic activity slows, traders may start pricing in Fed rate cuts more aggressively, pushing gold higher.
A potential long trade setup could be to enter a buy position around $3,050 - $3,065, targeting $3,080, with an extended upside potential.
To manage risk, a stop-loss below could be placed to account for potential short-term pullbacks.
Conclusion
The upcoming US economic data release suggests a cooling economy, which could lead to increased expectations of Fed rate cuts. This would be a bullish catalyst for gold, reinforcing its role as a hedge against monetary easing.
A long position on gold around $3,065, with targets at $3,080, could be an attractive setup in the short term. Risk management remains key, with a stop-loss set close below.
If economic data confirms a weakening trend, gold could soon test new highs. Stay alert to market reactions and Fed commentary! 🚀
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Fundamental Analysis
Comstock Resources (CRK) – Expanding U.S. Natural Gas DominanceCompany Overview:
Comstock Resources NYSE:CRK is accelerating natural gas production, reinforcing its position in the Western Haynesville play, a key U.S. gas region.
Key Catalysts:
Production Expansion & Strategic Acquisitions ⛽
Increasing drilling rigs from 5 to 7 for higher output.
Acquired 64,000 net acres in Haynesville, boosting reserves & market share.
Investment in Drilling & Midstream Infrastructure 🏗️
$1.0-$1.1 billion planned for 46 horizontal wells in 2025.
$130-$150 million allocated to midstream development, optimizing gas transport & profitability.
Market Strength & Growth Outlook 📈
Positioned to capitalize on rising U.S. natural gas demand & global LNG expansion.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on CRK above $15.50-$16.00, supported by production growth & infrastructure investment.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $30.00-$31.00, driven by expansion, operational efficiency, and market strength.
🔥 CRK – Fueling the Future of U.S. Natural Gas. #CRK #NaturalGas #EnergyStocks
KE Holdings (BEKE) – Transforming China’s Real Estate MarketCompany Overview:
KE Holdings NYSE:BEKE is revolutionizing real estate with its hybrid digital-physical platform, leveraging strategic backing from Tencent (8% voting power).
Key Catalysts:
Strong Financial & Earnings Growth 💰
Analysts project 20.9% annual earnings growth and 26.7% EPS increase.
Reinforces BEKE’s leading position in China’s real estate sector.
Expanding Services & Market Reach 🌍
Acquisition of Shengdu Home Decoration (2022) strengthens BEKE’s homeownership services.
Broadens revenue streams beyond real estate transactions.
Strategic Backing & Partnerships 🤝
Tencent’s support enhances financial stability & collaboration opportunities.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on BEKE above $20.00-$21.00, supported by rising profitability & business expansion.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $36.00-$37.00, driven by earnings growth, platform expansion, and strategic alliances.
🔥 BEKE – Shaping the Future of Homeownership in China. #BEKE #RealEstateTech #GrowthStock
BTC/USD 1D chart reviewHello everyone, let's look at the 1D BTC chart to USD, in this situation we can see how the price moves in the downward trend channel, in which we turn back at the top edge of the channel. Going further, let's check the places of potential target for the price:
T1 = 87100 $
T2 = 89945 $
Т3 = 93556 $
Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market:
SL1 = 81739 $
SL2 = 77307 $
SL3 = 74353 $
Looking at the RSI indicator, we see
As we came again to the center of the range at which we could again experience the price of price.
Official Trump price analysis$Trump coin will probably only go off when and if Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize. And for this to happen, his activities and rhetoric must change completely... at the moment, it looks "on the verge of fantasy."
Meanwhile: A major investor lost money on TRUMP again - this time $3.3m, he sold 743,947 TRUMP for $7.92m, but did so at a loss.
The irony is that at the very beginning of trading this token, he earned $11.82 million. However, a series of unsuccessful trades resulted in serious losses - now his total loss on $TRUMP has reached $15.7 million.
1️⃣ If by some miracle OKX:TRUMPUSDT manages to break out above the trend price, then we can dream of $14.26 and $17.36
2️⃣ А if, again, he writes, or says, or does something stupid, which is more likely for this personality.... then #Trump at $7-7.2, why not.
Ten times less than the highs... that's where the success is!)
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) – Strong Growth & Rising ProfitabilityCompany Overview:
Harmony Gold Mining NYSE:HMY continues to outperform expectations, delivering higher grades, cost efficiency, and production expansion.
Key Catalysts:
High-Quality Gold Extraction ⛏️
Underground recovered grades surged to 6.4 g/t, exceeding full-year guidance.
Reinforces HMY’s ability to extract high-quality ore.
Cost Efficiency & Rising Gold Prices 📈
All-in sustaining costs at ZAR 972,000/kg, well-managed despite inflationary pressures.
Gold’s safe-haven demand surging due to geopolitical tensions, boosting HMY’s margins.
Expansion & Future Growth 🚀
New high-grade mining site announced, set to enhance future production & revenue growth.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on HMY above $10.50-$11.00, supported by cost control & rising gold prices.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $17.00-$18.00, driven by high-margin production & increasing investor interest in gold.
🔥 HMY – Unlocking Gold’s Full Potential. #HMY #GoldMining #SafeHavenAsset
Chevron (CVX) – Strong Growth & Cash Flow ExpansionCompany Overview:
Chevron NYSE:CVX continues to demonstrate strong operational efficiency, strategic expansion, and record-breaking U.S. production.
Key Catalysts:
Production Growth & Profitability 🚀
Global production up 7% in 2024.
U.S. output surged 19% to record levels.
Permian Basin nearing 1M bpd, reinforcing cash flow strength.
Strategic Expansion & Sustainability 🌍
Gulf of Mexico projects targeting a boost from 200K to 300K bpd.
Future Growth Project in Kazakhstan enhances long-term production & ESG alignment.
Navigating Venezuelan challenges while leveraging stable U.S. policies for continued growth.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on CVX above $139.00-$140.00, backed by resilient production growth & execution.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $215.00-$220.00, supported by strong cash flow & expansion initiatives.
🔥 Chevron – Powering the Future with Growth & Stability. #CVX #EnergyStocks #OilAndGas
CRON- I ask ai to check if this is a Warren Buffett Cigar ButtA cigar butt is a stock that trades at a price too low compared to the assets inside the company.
Warren Buffett learned this strategy from Benjamin Graham, and Mr. Graham learned it during the 1930s great depression when stocks were unattractive and over sold.
CRON might be a cigar butt, and to be sure, I used GROK ai to do some homework for me.
CRON has more cash than the market cap.
tangible book value is higher than stock price.
Company has a negative enterprise value, because they have more net cash than marketcap.
On a down day like today, I added some CRON as a deep value play.
Targeting the tangible book value, I will take profit on half and leave the rest for long term.
enjoy the video! be safe.
-Value Pig
3/28/25 - $blde - sizing up 5%3/28/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BLDE
sizing up 5%
- i've covered 2/3 of the position for aug exp $2.5 strike b/c the implied 13% yield in this chop for an asset which already trades below fair value for 5 mo looks way better than cash
- but 1/3 of the book which i just added on this ((ridiculous -6%)) move and just a factor-end-of-month-small-cap etc etc. thing... seems like good beta.
- valuation ex cash is $100 mm on this which is almost laughable considering they'll be the platform for all EVTOL in the future, have a great med biz that drove them to profitability. route density for consumer now puts that biz in the black too. so 11x EBITDA here going to 5x in '27 seems... "light".
baby and bathwater. these guys have executed exceedingly well. downside quite limited.
"happy" friday everyone playing this turd casino :)
V
Descending Triangle on USDCADNoticing a descending triangle chart pattern on the 4H timeframe for USDCAD. The descending triangle is a neutral pattern suggesting two scenarios but usually plays out on bearish scenarios.
Price had been giving us LHs and equal lows. Combined with the corelation with DXY we may see bearish movement. However, confirmation is key. A break below the support will confirm the bears are in control. Alternatively, a break above the trendline AND the resistance I marked out suggests the bulls are in control.
US Equities Fall Amid Inflationary Pressures and Trade TensionsUS equities closed the week with significant losses, reversing the gains recorded during the previous week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped more than 1%, reflecting a clear deterioration in market sentiment amid multiple adverse factors.
The bearish session unfolded in an environment dominated by worrying signs of inflationary pressures, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key gauge followed by the Federal Reserve (FED). The core PCE posted a monthly increase of 0.4%, the largest gain since January 2024, exceeding market expectations. On an annual basis, this measure accelerated to a concerning 2.8%, signaling persistent inflationary pressure that could complicate future monetary policy decisions by the FED.
At the same time, soft data has continued to deteriorate significantly, adding uncertainty regarding the resilience of hard data. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 57, its lowest level since November 2022, due to negative expectations regarding personal finances, unemployment, and inflation. In fact, two-thirds of consumers anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate, reflecting a level of concern not seen since the 2009 financial crisis.
Much of this uncertainty has been fueled by recent policies implemented by the Trump administration, particularly government spending cuts and aggressive trade policies. The latest move came with the announcement of 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, effective April 3. This measure triggered an immediate negative reaction in both local and international markets, anticipating higher costs for US consumers and potential trade retaliation from key partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, and South Korea.
At the sector level, discretionary consumer goods were the most affected on Friday, while utilities showed relative resilience. This uneven performance supports the case for a defensive market, reflecting a growing risk aversion among investors.
The combination of inflationary pressures, economic slowdown, and rising trade tensions creates a challenging environment for equities. Overall, current conditions point toward a concerning scenario with signs of stagflation: low economic growth coupled with persistent inflation and a rapidly deteriorating economic sentiment.
In conclusion, it will be key to closely monitor the evolution of hard economic data as well as the international response to US trade policies. The big question in the coming months is whether the current fragility in economic sentiment will ultimately translate into hard economic indicators, decisively impacting equities.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
Bearish Bias on USD/CAD – Fundamental and Technical ConfluenceFundamental Overview:
We’re seeing several bearish signals from the fundamental side for USD/CAD:
Retail Sales: Negative, indicating weaker consumer spending and slowing economic activity.
Inflation: Bearish, as high inflation may lead to tighter monetary policies, slowing growth.
Employment Change: Negative, suggesting a contraction in job creation, signaling economic weakness.
Unemployment Rate: Negative, reflecting potential challenges in the labor market.
These factors all lean toward a bearish bias, reinforcing the case for selling USD/CAD.
Technical Overview:
On the chart, price is currently in a discounted zone with confluence from the anchored VWAP from the recent low, which aligns with the current bearish trend. The VWAP suggests that the price has retraced back to a significant level, and with the fundamentals pointing to a weak outlook for USD, a continuation to the downside seems likely.
Key Levels & Target:
Short entry near the VWAP confluence.
Targeting the next key support level, watching for any price action confirmation.
What Is Tesla’s Fundamental and Technical Analysis Showing?EV maker Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA is perhaps the most controversial stock in U.S financial markets right now. Sales appear to be slowing, while CEO Elon Musk's position as a Trump administration adviser has led political opponents to attack Tesla vehicles, dealerships and even some vehicle owners.
TSLA popped 11.9% on Monday (March 24), but has generally been sinking for months. What does technical and fundamental analysis say might happen next?
Let's dig in and see what we find:
Tesla’s Fundamental Analysis
TSLA rose almost 95% in the roughly seven weeks between Donald Trump’s November election victory and the stock’s $488.54 all-time intraday high on Dec. 18. After all, Musk’s close ties to Trump seemed to point to good times ahead for the company.
However, the stock’s price has been in decline ever since then, while vandalism of Tesla vehicles by Trump opponents has made owning or one a slightly risky affair.
As of this writing, TSLA was down 32.2% year to date and 44% from the stock's Dec. 18 peak.
Beyond politics, a lot of this had to do with the reality that demand for electric vehicles might have hit something of a saturation point, at least for now.
There’s also been a tremendous increase in competition in recent years for electric-vehicle purchases or leases. Volkswagen OTC:VWAGY has ramped up its EV efforts, while China is absolutely full of homegrown competitors like BYD OTC:BYDDF , Nio NYSE:NIO and XPeng NYSE:XPEV .
All in, Tesla’s vehicle sales have slackened not just in America, but also in Europe and China. But to be fair, Ford NYSE:F , General Motors NYSE:GM and Rivian NASDAQ:RIVN have all hit slowdowns in EV sales as well.
Still, add it all up and Wall Street is looking TSLA to report Q1 results in May that include $0.47 of adjusted earnings per share on $22.9 billion of revenue.
That would represent 4.4% larger earnings and about 7.5% higher revenues when compared to last year’s Q1, where Tesla reported $0.45 of adjusted EPS on $21.3 billion in revenues.
However, all 13 sell-side Tesla analysts that I can find have revised their quarterly estimates lower since current quarter began.
On the bright side, the automaker’s operating and free cash flows have remained strong for the past three quarters.
The firm ended 2024 with some $36.6 billion in cash against a $13.6 billion total debt load. That’s what many would consider a strong balance sheet that could sustain Tesla’s operations for a time if need be.
Tesla’s Technical Analysis
A look at Tesla’s one-year chart shows that while the stock has been falling since December, it still managed to make a stand technically in recent days:
The purple line at right in the above chart shows that TSLA found support twice in March very close to $212.30. That’s the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the stock’s entire April 2024 to December 2024 run.
That purple line also shows indicates that Tesla has formed a small “double bottom” pattern of what could be a bullish reversal at the Fibonacci support level, and that the stock has since tried to rally from there.
TSLA was also able to recently take back its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the green line above). However, the stock appears to have hit resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked above with a red line).
That makes the 200-day SMA the stock's likely new pivot point.
A retaking of the 200-day SMA would allow for increased target prices. Conversely, a retest and loss of Tesla’s 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could permit a further decline.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line in the above chart’s top) has mostly improved recently and now stands in neutral territory.
Similarly, the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- is in a less-awful place than it was earlier this year.
The histogram of Tesla’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted by the blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is now above zero. That’s historically a short-term bullish sign.
Similarly, the stock’s 12-day EMA (the black line at the bottom) is now above its 26-day EMA (the gold line). That’s typically somewhat positive, but both of those lines are still below zero -- which is historically a negative signal.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in TSLA at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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Breaking: $TRUMP Token Dips 10% Reverting to $10 ZoneThe price of OFFICIAL TRUMP coin ($TRUMP) tanked 10% today, falling back to the $10 region. The asset ever since peaking to an all time high of $76, faced insane selling pressure losing about 80% of total value together with its compatriot $MELANIA coin.
For Weeks now, $TRUMP has been circumventing in the $10- $12 zone albeit the crypto market was most of the time in a bloodbath season. For $TRUMP coin, should the bulls push the token above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, that may be the catalyst the token needs to spark a bullish renaissance as hinted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 30- pointing at the disparity $TRUMP has to capitalise and make a bullish move.
Similarly, the 1-month low is serving as support point for $TRUMP should extreme selling pressure push the token lower.
OFFICIAL TRUMP Price Live Data
The live OFFICIAL TRUMP price today is $10.21 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $517,239,338 USD. OFFICIAL TRUMP is down 8.71% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #45, with a live market cap of $2,041,294,317 USD. It has a circulating supply of 199,999,430 TRUMP coins and a max. supply of 999,999,993 TRUMP coins.
XAUUSD - GOLD HITS ALL-TIME HIGH AT $3,085!
🔹 Market Outlook: Amid ongoing economic tensions and a brewing trade war, gold remains a safe-haven asset, pushing prices to new historic highs.
🔹 Technical Analysis:
📈 Elliott Wave Theory suggests a bullish continuation, with Gold expected to reach $3,096.
📊 Price is moving from $3,065 to $3,070, with key upside targets at $3,085 & $3,096.
🎯 Trading Plan:
✅ Buy on dips: Entries between $3,065 - $3,070
✅ Take Profits: $3,085 & $3,096
✅ Stop Loss: Below $3,060
✅ Risk Management: Use trailing stops to lock in profits.
📢 Stay sharp! Volatility is high – trade wisely! 🚀✨
TSLA what's wrong? no supercharger in sight? 2 things i need to say
Technicals
- TSLA has a Elliot wave in motion, so far it respected the sequence,
1H - divergence (But no resistance in sight) - caution
if if settles below 270 , then we might see 221 or even lower?
Fundamentals
I'm not even going to mention the popularity loss of TSLA since Elon meddled into politics, but the recent Auto tariffs President Trump imposed? - well... TLSA makes cars, needs auto parts, ... you get the point
Remember to take the risks into consideration and always do your own analysis before taking a decision !!
I'm still new to sharing ideas on the community - don't start throwing rocks now :D
-Not financial Advice !