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AUD/CAD Short🔍 Technical Context: Market Structure: Price is in a long-term sideways range with lower highs. AUD/CAD is struggling to break above the 0.90–0.91 region, showing signs of exhaustion. Zone of Interest (Supply): Purple box: 0.9000 – 0.9100 A clean historical rejection zone that has acted as both support and resistance multiple times since 2022. Entry Type: Sell Limit @ 0.9070 placed slightly below the top of the resistance zone to increase likelihood of getting triggered on a spike. Stop Loss: 0.9175 – above multiple wick rejections and key structure highs. Allows breathing room for volatility without compromising the structure. Take Profit Targets: TP1: 0.8650 (conservative target at strong support) TP2 (optional extension): 0.8500 (major long-term range low) Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 minimum to TP1, potentially 1:4+ if extended to 0.8500. 🧠 Strategic Notes: Trigger Conditions: Wait for a retrace to the 0.9070 zone rather than enter at market open. This is based on the idea that a final upward effort could grab liquidity and fill your limit. Monthly Candle Watch: Monday is month-end. Monitor the monthly close to determine if the structure still supports the trade idea. If the close is strongly bullish and you’re triggered early, be open to closing the trade early to avoid deeper drawdown. Why It’s High Probability: Multi-year horizontal structure Repeated failure to hold above 0.90 Candlestick wicks rejecting the same zone Fundamentals slightly favor CAD over AUD (higher real yields, oil correlation) Defined invalidation point and asymmetric reward
by tradercat2025
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Core PCE Inflation Rises More than ExpectedECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC (February/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The US PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month in February, maintaining the same pace as the previous two months. The core PCE index increased by 0.4%, the most since January 2024, surpassing the forecast of 0.3% and up from 0.3% in January. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation remained steady at 2.5%, while core PCE inflation edged up to 2.8%, above the expected 2.7%.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx
BTC Confirmed a Clear Bearish MovementBTC Confirmed a Clear Bearish Movement Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) shifted from a bullish outlook to a bearish one. In my previous analysis, I mentioned this change was possible, as BTC was bullish but lacked strong momentum. However, instead of showing signs of upward movement, BTC moved straight down. Today, BTC has clearly broken through key levels, increasing the likelihood of a further downward trend. Based on the chart, BTC is expected to continue its decline and may find strong support around 81,600, 79,000, and 74,000. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
5
Gold swing trade with buy and sell levelsThis week we are looking to sell Gold down to previous resistance which aligns with Fibonacci 0.382 level for a sell total pips of 309. When we reach our take profit we will go back into a buy at 2994 and a take profit target of 3053 for an additional pip count of 588 pips. Trade idea is based on higher time frame and uses trend lines as well as support and resistance and Fibonacci levels. With these type of trades expect to go into some drawdown that's why I recommend using small lots and securing profit along the way . Check out my weekly gold forecast with both buy and sell entries posted below.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by F0rexBorex
Gold weekly forecast with buy and sell levelsGold weekly forecast with both buy and sell entries. Friday Gold sold off from 2334 all the way to 2300 for a drop of 334 pips before retracing up to where we are now at 3024. What can we expect for the coming week ?. My plan is as follows. For a buy I would look at entering at 3032 expecting first resistance (marked in red on chart ) to be 3038 to 3040 area. If we break these then next target would be 3048 to 3052 (200 pip from entry) this is high resistance level , if gold continues to be bullish expect 3078 to be the next area. For a sell I would enter at 3018 expecting 3010 to 3008 as first support, next level is 3000 to 2998 and if broken we can expect gold to fall to 2880 and 2840 levels. As always wait for levels, take profit along the way and don't over leverage . Ill update this as the week goes on. Check out my other trade idea for a gold swing trade below. Trade safe
OANDA:XAUUSD
by F0rexBorex
Strong Momentum and Price Performance $AEMAnalysis of NYSE:AEM Stock Performance 1. Strong Momentum and Price Performance NYSE:AEM exhibits strong momentum characteristics, with the stock price trading above short, medium, and long-term moving averages. Additionally, it has achieved a new 52-week high today, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) also suggests price strength, reinforcing the stock’s positive momentum. 2. Consistent Outperformance Against the Industry NYSE:AEM has consistently outperformed its industry peers over various timeframes, including 1 week, 3 months, 1 year, and even 10 years. This long-term relative strength makes it an attractive investment within its sector. 3. Growth and Profitability Indicators The company has shown good quarterly growth in its recent financial results. Annual profit growth has been higher than the sector’s profit growth. Net profit growth has been robust, aligning with significant gains in share price. Revenue has increased consistently every quarter for the past 4 quarters, reflecting strong business expansion. The company has strong cash-generating ability, with operating cash flow improving over the last two years. 4. Valuation Metrics and Financial Strength The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is lower than the industry average, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers. The PEG ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth) is lower than the industry PEG, indicating that the stock offers a good balance of price and growth potential. Book value per share has been improving for the last two years, a positive indicator of financial health. The company maintains low debt levels, reducing financial risk and ensuring sustainability. 5. Technical and Volume-Based Strength Stocks near 52-week high with significant volumes indicate continued buying interest. Volume shockers suggest that the stock has experienced unusual trading activity, which may indicate accumulation by institutional investors. High momentum scores, with technical indicators above 50, reinforce the stock’s strong trend. Conclusion NYSE:AEM is a fundamentally strong stock with a combination of growth, profitability, and strong momentum indicators. The stock’s consistent outperformance relative to its industry, low valuation metrics, rising cash flow, and strong financial health make it an attractive investment. Given its technical strength and fundamental resilience, NYSE:AEM appears well-positioned for further upside in the near to medium term.
NYSE:AEM
by swingstocktraders
The "Good" Crypto Narrative Is OverIt's been a while since I've done a bit of a deep-dive on this market and why I don't believe it'll sustain a significantly higher value in the future. I no longer have the stamina to write a long-winded post. It's exhausting at this point, and I don't need to reiterate it. Instead, I'll summarize recent developments and their impact on the crypto narrative. 1) The TOTAL crypto market cap currently rests below the all-time high from 2021. This is even including stablecoins. There is $144B worth of USDT currently in circulation. In 2021, that number was $80B. Meanwhile, stock indexes and several individual stocks are significantly up from their last peaks. From a "store of value" standpoint, this doesn't look great, particularly factoring in inflation. Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin itself is sitting below its inflation-adjusted 2021 all-time high, which is around $84K. 2) Bitcoin active addresses are back to 2017 levels and BELOW the levels from even the previous bear market! This implies that "authentic" adoption has stagnated and begun a decline. studio.glassnode.com 3) In the eyes of a growing number of investors, Trump and Elon's crypto push has only solidified the crypto market as a joke and as a global symbol of greed and corruption. 4) Gold has far outpaced Bitcoin as a store of value during this recent period of turbulence, disproving Bitcoin as a possible safe haven. Here is the Bitcoin/Gold chart for reference: 5) Still, if cryptocurrencies completely ceased to exist, there would be no net-negative effect on the world. In fact, it may be a net-positive. Unless this suddenly changes, crypto does not have any real world value. You cannot say this about most MIL:1T + markets: If most major companies and resources ceased to exist, we'd see a very significant (mostly negative) impact on our daily lives, almost immediately. In summary, I don't think people will be coming in droves to invest in this market. I think that ship has sailed. The opportunity for it to prove itself has waned, and it has been overtaken by largely bad actors. If anything, I think people are more likely to be forced to buy it than enter the market willingly. From a technical standpoint, a breakdown from the big uptrend channel in the chart above would likely confirm that the top is in. --------------------------------------------- Beware, a crypto narrative still exists, but it's only the one fed to us by those in power. It will be important not to fall for it. I worry that people will be forced to own cryptocurrencies, at the expense of their freedom. And even in a situation where crypto prices continue to increase, it is unlikely to be seen positively. Once we graduate from these strange and confusing times, rife with dissociation, monopolies, grift, and power consolidation, it seems more likely that humanity will look at crypto as part of an uncomfortable past. If we never move on to more optimistic times, and things continue to become more dystopian, well, then that would be a time where crypto adopters can say, "hey, we were right!" But...at what cost? Regardless, it will always be possible to profit from the volatility, hence my attempts at trading a little recently, with a focus on Litecoin. So, trading opportunities will present themselves, which will keep at least some people interested in this market. I think it is unlikely to be enough liquidity to sustain significant new all-time highs. Here is my last big post, where I detailed more reasoning - this was prior to the Bitcoin ETF's: And here is a recent post, where I describe how my own thoughts about the market evolved, from when I first entered in 2017 to the present: As always, this represents only my opinion, and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. There are many other opinions out there. It is your responsibility to develop critical thinking. Thanks for reading as always! -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by VictorCobra
5 Key Points for Blockchain Future5 Key Points for Blockchain Future 【old articles published on 2022】 During 2020-2022, the blockchain industry experienced extremely rapid changes. From 2019 to the first half of 2020, there were almost no interesting primary projects and new ideas, until Compound directly drove the Defi boom, then followed by DEX, NFT, Metaverse, GameFi, and the upsurge of entrepreneurship. However, all industries of life follow the law of nature and the law of harmony between Yin and Yang. When the tide rises, the tide will ebb. The last wave of the X to Earn boom will be driven by StepN in 2022, when the "grand debut" of the LUNA crash, the top 3 in the industry, directly cools down the overheated market just like the arrival of the moon at night. Combined with the global supply-side imbalances caused by the Fed's interest rate hike strategy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market has experienced extreme volatility and uncertainty. The sudden breakup of two supposedly friendly exchanges, Binance and FTX, is an indirect reminder that we are living in a period of extreme instability and diversification. The black swan and the white swan are more indistinguishable. There are great opportunities and uncertainties in the future. In order to better embrace the new rhythm, we may pay attention to the following five points: (The Chinese version was published at Nov, if you like reading Chinese, you can find that version) 1. The blockchain world will expand larger ecosystems and exchanges, but not need as many. From the historical trend, everything is going to be unified after merger and elimination, and it is the same in the field of blockchain. Now, the ecology of the large platform of the layer 1 public chain has gradually entered the white-hot stage of the competition. With the test of the bear market, it is inevitable that more than one LUNA and FTX will leave and be eliminated from the projects and exchanges we are familiar with. BINANCE:LUNAUSDT BYBIT:FTTUSDT Of course, the fierce competition is also the alchemist of high-quality ecology, to test who can stabilize the internal situation to grasp the historical trend and become the next chain on the world leader. Therefore, risk avoidance and allocation should be done as early as possible. Focus on projects with long-term value and stay away from projects with lip service and over-the-top bragging. 2. Conduct spiritual enrichment exercises as early as possible to meet the alternative fantasy world brought by the metaverse and Virtual age and effectively deal with deeper loneliness. The continuous progress of science and technology often brings more convenient living conditions and a more lonely spiritual world. With quick access to information, cool virtual effects, and big trends in VR and AR, we can basically see the future moving towards movies like and . According to the law of conservation of the universe, spiritual energy must also be conserved. For a simple example, when technology was not developed in the 1980s and 1990s, the friends who asked you to go downstairs to play every day, and the children born after the 2000s and 2010s basically play with iPad in their childhood. The latter has significantly more communication online, while the former has more face-to-face offline, and this sense of loneliness and distance will only get bigger as the tech trend flows. However, many post-00s suffer from depression and other mental diseases at an early age. The premature bombardment of technology and information is more likely to destroy people's spirits before the barriers and defensive lines of values are built. In the high-octane world of fintech, it's even more complicated, with an extra layer of Money that magnifies its power by at least 2.5 times. Therefore, as early as possible to carry out the psychological construction of the spiritual level, we can avoid inadaptation suffering as early as possible when the tide of The Times comes. A small number of people are eliminated by competition, and most of them are eliminated by The Times ( we can start with some classic books). 3. Most projects said that they have Tech DNA but actually not Tech, Blockchain will be everywhere Real Tech projects tend to survive bear markets. Because they only need computers and shelter, they can continue to develop the project and do not need to spend a lot of money to hire too many expensive technical personnel. (Like Airbnb's early stage) This is important for the early and mid-term development of a project, and it is also crucial for engineers to resist the temptation of blockchain technology to make it easier when they are suddenly faced with the temptation of huge financing. Therefore, sometimes, projects under the guise of technology and slogan are often more deceiving than pyramid projects, because people will be CPUed. But one thing is certain, blockchain technology will be everywhere in the next five years, and the closest and fastest popularization should be: Historical relics NFT, ticketing systems (such as Ant Financial ticketing application, World Cup ticketing application), authentication systems (property ownership certificate, education certificate, birth certificate, etc.) and object traceability (various blockchain applications in milk, wine, luxury goods), the popularity of asset tokenization (apartment ownership, company tokenization, etc.), And countries' recognition of BTC as a currency outside the asset. Let ourselves catch up with the trend of The Times as soon as possible, in order to catch the last train more effectively. Because it's already branching out. 4. People understand hot water hurts hands. But in the face of hot trends and hot spots, we often flock to and forget the risk. What is very easy to understand in our daily lives is often reversed when applied to the same things in other areas. For example, the simplest way to avoid hot water is because hot water has our physical nervous system acting as a force to protect the stress response, and can also avoid excessive injury. But the market contains the risk of hot topics, our spirit is often paralyzed in the temptation of interests, thus ultimately causing regrets and loss of money. Therefore, in the future virtual and technological era, there will be more sugar-coating bombardment, so our judgment to keep relatively objective has become a very important ability. So that you can ride on the hot trend, but also have a protection system to prevent yourself from injury. This is something that someone who is very good at following hot spots has been teaching us. Each time, he walked in with hot topics, fool the investors, and walked away. The most obvious of these is NFT, GameFi's early hype. 5. Value will not change its core nature as times change. But it is a harder test of self-choice judgment and self-recognition ability. With the development of The Times and technology, they will become more and more intertwined with each other. Once a very simple business model, it may become more relevant after the integration of blockchain, VR, AR, and other technologies. But the core is still the same, just as a normal man, no matter how fancy he is, no matter how coquettish he is, his physical structure is also male (except for surgery). But the test of judgment and cognitive ability is more demanding, and complex at the same time, there are more opportunities. Because there are likely to be more Hamlets for the same enterprise or project, it is particularly important to keep updating our learning pool. At the same time, the influence of individuals like KOL on society will be further enhanced Summary: 2022 is a transitional year before a new era, and in the next 20-30 years, there is a high probability that we will enter a more technological phase in which humans are not separated. In this stage, in my opinion, the most critical point is the second of the five points. Material and technological progress may lead to spiritual regression, but the good news is that our cultural foundation is deep enough. If you can understand Traditional Chinese, it will be a much more spiritual gem. Enough to fill our hearts and make us fully ready for the new world. Blockchain technology, whether public chain, private chain, or alliance chain, or sidechain is a big trend in technology popularization. It won't die even though some people hold negative views on it, but won't create gods because of some pyramid. For an ordinary person like us, the best way is to keep learning to enrich ourselves, and keep calm at all times, and stay away from the complicated and mixed-up areas of special strategies. This article has no financial advice or any guidance content
by OuChiBoy
Nat Gas Report 3/29/25: Can you shoulder the shoulder? Well, after much fanfare it is finally here! No, not the SSW event, not the Liberation Day (Trump’s April Tariffs), but the shoulder season! That important time of the year for energy traders to watch the price of NG drop faster than Trump’s current approval ratings! The cyclical trade in energy warrants a movement of funds this time of the year to Crude oil, then eventually Gasoline. As discussed, a few weeks ago this constant movement in energy trades keeps the asset allocations inline with seasonal trends in energy usage and the funds fat and happy. But this year we have the ultimate monkey in the works, true market dynamics! Although with the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs starting this coming Wednesday, 4/2/25, the market once again is on edge with the unknown unknowns! As the broad equity market has sold off this quarter, we have seen a movement into commodities, especially NG (sorry Gold bugs!). The underlying weakness in global oil demand, and the inability for oil producing nations and majors to temper supply has led to a glut in worldwide crude stockpiling. Yesterday’s Crude Oil COT report showed commercials with a net short position of -208,888 (an increase in short positions by 3,580 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +197,061. This is not a common seasonal response in the Oil markets. Normally the December to May timeframe is a season of oil accumulation by major traders and the petro industry. This demand is not without purpose; it marks the onset of preparations for the impending summer driving season. Refiners embark on a strategic accumulation of crude oil inventory for gasoline production, laying the groundwork for oil price increases in the months ahead. But with softness in the overall global markets, downward revisions in GDP, Trump tariff uncertainty, and the big electrification to the transportation sector. There is a bearish undertone to the global oil and gasoline market this year. Remember what was discussed. The global nature of institutional energy traders is to trade crude in the spring (as NG sells off), gasoline in the summer (as oil sells off), NG in the fall (as diesel sells off), and diesel/heating oil in the winter (as gasoline sells off). This round robing of trades allows the savvy trader to expect entry and exit points, or to determine the overall direction of seasonal trends. But throw that out this year! The past few months NG and Oil have been trading inversely with each other, almost to the dollar! So, that leaves us with a tremendous amount of allocated worldwide capital in the one energy trade left. NG! But, not without merit! Natural Gas has a tremendous amount of underlying fundamental support. Lower than normal storage (currently 6.5% below 5-yer average), increasing power generation demand, increasing exports via pipeline to Mexico, increasing LNG export (currently hit a record at 16.7 BCF/d this week and expected to hit 18 BCF/d next month), and stagnant production (NG rig count down 9% y/y, oil down 4.5% y/y). The producers have finally understood that producing too much NG will probably affect the price in a negative way. Last week’s energy conference in Houston, TX had one general theme from all the energy majors. Supply restraint/discipline and an increase in infrastructure. There must have been some concerted effort, because the catch phrase all week was not “Drill baby Drill” but “Build baby Build” The discussion was that Trump’s lowering of barriers for pipeline construction and LNG export facilities is what is going to give them a reason to drill. But, for the time being they need takeaway capacity. They will continue to keep rigs out of the field until that happens. Imports from Canada are at a 2-year low, due to the increase in heating demand in Canada, due to the SSW event taking hold up north. Increasing demand, stagnant production = higher prices! Weather related demand has decreased with the unusually warm March. But the SSW event is now affecting Canada. If not for the main Pacific Teleconnection, the EPO, this cold bottled up in Canada would have brought seasonal temperature to the US. But!!!!!!! Now the EPO(negative) Teleconnection is aligning with the SSW event and the models over the past week have been printing colder. I expect the month of April to end up below average. Which could possibly lead to one, maybe to more storage withdrawals, outside the withdrawal season. As of earlier this week, April is now projected to end the storage deficit created during the withdrawal season. But if we can head into the month of May with a continued deficit, we can expect elevated prices for the summer strip. The summer forecasts are currently coming out, which is showing dry and hot conditions from the Rockies west to the Mississippi River. The current storage deficit in the South Central region (-10.5%) and the Midwest (-16.2%), will be the main driver for price appreciation due to weather related issues. Years that had a SSW event in the months of March and April, statistically have very hot May and June months that follow. This kick start to the summer cooling season is another reason for the predicted elevated prices this summer. This is not 2024! Do not expect for historic low process to return, bar a pandemic or a worldwide global recession. There will be price volatility, but not a complete dropping of the floor price. Near term pricing: Ever since moving above the 100D SMA back at the end of December the 50D SMA has held up wonderfully as support during last four months. Since Tuesday the 50D SMA has continued to hold, except for a brief 12 hour period, but the price showed bullish support by retracing, touching and bouncing back off. The weekly low bounced off the lower SD of the BB. This another bullish conformation. The weekly low dropped below the 38.2% fib level and reclaimed upward momentum, another bullish sign, only to move up past the 50% fib level. The psychological 4000 level, another bullish indicator. When technical and fundamentals align, we should pay close attention and listen! I am watching 4170, 4252, and 4316 for my immediate term resistance levels. If 4316 is broken, the upper BB SD and the 78.6% swing retracement level 4570 is next. For support, 3953, 3854, 3729. If there is a break below the 3729 then the 23.6% swing retracement level at 3560 would be up next. I am of the belief that the market is expected to travel higher. But there are many reasons for continued range bound days. So, I will be setting these levels to range trade until I see an indication for otherwise. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGK2025
by NrG_Trader
3
#GBPUSD: Risk Entry Vs Safe Entry, Which One Would You Chose? The GBPUSD currency pair presents two promising opportunities for entry, potentially generating gains exceeding 500 pips. However, entering these markets carries a substantial risk of stop-loss hunting during the commencement of the week. Conversely, adopting a safe entry strategy offers a favourable chance for a bullish position. We encourage you to share your thoughts and feedback on our ideas. ❤️🚀 Team Setupsfx_
Long
by Setupsfx_
16
Convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17Yo traders - Let’s map out a convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17, 2025 $75 Call option — currently trading at $1.00, with the stock at $65.97 and only 18 days to expiry. 🔍 Step-by-Step Breakdown: 🧠 1. Basic Structure You’re buying the LOAR Apr17 $75 call at $1.00. This is a deep OTM bet (~13.7% above current price). You’re betting on a short-term move to $75+, meaning volatility spike or news catalyst. ⚙️ 2. Convexity Setup Convexity means: Small risk, asymmetric reward If LOAR stays flat or dips → you lose $1 per contract If LOAR rips to $80+ → this option could return 5x to 10x+ LOAR Price at Expiry Option Intrinsic Value Profit/Loss $66 (flat) $0 -$1.00 $70 $0 -$1.00 $75 (strike) $0 -$1.00 $77 $2.00 +$1.00 $80 $5.00 +$4.00 (5x) $85 $10.00 +$9.00 (9x) 🧾 3. Chart + Sentiment Setup Looking at the TradingView chart: Price Action: LOAR is basing around $66 after a steep downtrend — potential reversal pattern Volume is light, but some buy pressure is visible MACD: Appears to be flattening and potentially crossing bullish RSI: ~40s: Oversold-to-neutral zone. Could support upward bounce. Earnings coming up (E icon): Strong potential for a catalyst move This setup enhances convexity, because earnings can produce gap moves that DOTM options profit from disproportionately. 🔮 4. Convexity Scenario Thesis (Narrative) "LOAR has pulled back hard and is showing signs of base-building. Earnings are in 2–3 weeks. If guidance surprises to the upside — or macro tailwinds hit the sector — a short squeeze or re-rating toward $75–80 could occur. I’m risking $1 per contract for a shot at $5–10. If it doesn’t move, I accept the full loss." This is a classic event-driven convexity play. ⚠️ 5. Risks & Considerations Time decay is brutal: With only 18 days left, theta decay accelerates daily IV Crush post-earnings could hurt even if the stock moves You need a fast, strong move, ideally before or at earnings Position sizing is critical: This is a "lottery ticket" — don’t over-allocate ✅ 6. Ideal for Your Strategy If: You're making many small bets like this across tickers/catalysts You’re not trying to be “right” often, but “big” occasionally You have capital discipline and uncorrelated base assets 🧮 Position Size: Option price = $1.00 per contract You buy 100 contracts of the $75 call Total risk = $100 Each $1.00 move above $75 = $100 profit per $1, since 100 contracts × 100 shares/contract = 10,000 shares exposure 📈 Upside Payoff Table LOAR Price at Expiry Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 $1.00 $1 × 10,000 = $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% 🧠 Interpretation Max Loss: $100 (fixed, regardless of LOAR's move down or sideways) Breakeven at Expiry: LOAR must hit $76.00 10x return if LOAR trades just $1 above strike Massive asymmetry — you risk $100 for a shot at $10k–250k if LOAR rips on earnings or news. 📌 Real-World Considerations: You might exit early if the option spikes in value before expiry (e.g., stock runs to $72 with 5 days left). Liquidity may limit large size fills. Volatility matters: IV spike pre-earnings or a big gap post-earnings increases your chance of profit. 📊 Convex Payoff Table for LOAR Apr17 $75 Call (100 Contracts, $100 Risk) LOAR Price at Expiry % Move from $65.97 Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 0% to +13.6% $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 +15.2% $1.00 $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 +17.0% $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 +21.3% $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 +28.9% $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 +36.4% $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 +51.6% $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% 🧠 Takeaway: Even a 15% move turns your $100 into $10,000 — this is why convex trades are so powerful. But the trade-off is probability: the odds of a 15–50%+ move in 18 days are low, which is why risk is capped and position sizing matters.
NYSE:LOAREducation
by TheHouseofTrade