Fundamental Analysis
Tesla I Tipping Point: Short Opportunity with Head & Shoulders Short opportunity on Tesla
Based on Technical + Fundamental View
-market structure
-Head and shoulder pattern
-Double top
-Currently trading at supply zone which was a recent support and now an ideal place for a reversal to create the right shoulder of the bigger head and shoulder pattern - Daily time frame
-Product Development Delays
-Margin Pressure
-Decreased average selling price
- Increased Competition
- Flat /Declining Sales
- Leadership Concerns: Elon Musk's polarizing political activities and his divided attention between Tesla and other ventures (such as his involvement with OpenAI) have raised concerns among investors. Some analysts suggest that Musk's public perception may negatively impact consumer sentiment towards Tesla, leading to decreased sales and loyalty among customers.
Technical view
Double top
Unlike the classic double top, where the second peak reaches or exceeds the height of the first peak, the Type III double top fails to reach the previous high. This failure signifies a significant shift in market sentiment and an increase in selling pressure than usal.
Head and shoulder pattern - Pretty visible. Right shoulder is yet to be formed, Which makes an ideal place to SELL with a Risk Reward ratio. (Approx 1:6.4)
Pro Tip
Wait for a bearish candle stick pattern to execute trades on end of the day keeping stop loss somewhere above the supply zone.
Target 1 - 307$
Target 2 - 271$
Target 3 - 237$
Stop Loss - 380.21$
Fundamental View
Valuation Concerns: Tesla's stock is currently viewed as significantly overvalued, with a fair value estimate of $210 per share according to multiple analysts, including Morningstar and Firstrade. This valuation reflects a substantial premium over its current trading price, indicating potential downside risk for investors.
Earnings Performance: Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings are anticipated to show continued improvement, with expectations of gross profit margins exceeding 20%. Analysts believe that the automotive segment's performance has stabilized after a challenging first half of the year, driven by increased deliveries and lower production costs.
Market Dynamics: Despite strong demand for Tesla's vehicles, the company faces pressures from declining average selling prices due to price cuts implemented in 2023. This trend is expected to continue as competition intensifies in the electric vehicle (EV) market.
Product Development: Tesla is set to launch new models, including an affordable SUV (Model Q) aimed at increasing market share in the lower-priced vehicle segment. Additionally, advancements in autonomous driving technology are critical for future growth, with plans to roll out Level 3 Full Self-Driving software in select states and regions.
Analyst Ratings: The consensus among analysts remains mixed, with a combination of "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings. The average price target reflects a cautious outlook, suggesting that while there is potential for upside, significant risks remain due to valuation concerns and competitive pressures.
Not an investment Advise
US Wall St 30Dow Jones Market Analysis
Introduction
Hello dear traders! In this analysis, we will examine the status of the Dow Jones chart in the one-hour timeframe.
Technical Analysis
The Dow Jones chart is currently in a bearish phase, but it has provided us with a bullish confirmation. Based on this, we can hold a buy position (Buy Position) until the one-hour liquidity.
Key Levels
Liquidity 1H: 44662.2
Secret Order Block: 44792
Ideal Time to Buy with Confirmation: 43783
Conclusion
My analysis is very simple and straightforward so that you can easily utilize it. Considering the mentioned key levels, you can make your trading decisions.
Wishing you all success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex)
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in the cryptocurrency market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
Kaito price analysis⁉️ There are also miracles or "cold calculations" in the crypto market
Now we can see that the "gray cardinals" #KAITO "support" their child from a sharp drain.
👀 Now the price of OKX:KAITOUSDT is at a critical point, so what do you think, from here:
🐳 only growth to levels from above $2.70 - 3 - 3.70 - 5.20
or
💔 first a drop and trading around $1
_____________________
Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Price Prediction for Pi Network: The Crash Is Inevitable $0.005For those still holding onto Pi with the hope of future gains, it's time for a serious reality check.
🔍 Why Pi Network Is Destined to Collapse:
Illegal KYC Practices Under Investigation:
Apple and Google are actively investigating Pi Network’s highly questionable KYC process, where random users - not official employees, are allowed to review sensitive personal information, including passports and ID documents.
This is in violation of data privacy laws such as the GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) and other global data protection standards.
If these investigations lead to the app being removed from the Google Play Store and Apple App Store, the Pi Network ecosystem will collapse overnight.
A Centralized Ponzi Disguised as Crypto:
Despite the crypto façade, Pi Network is entirely centralized, operating through a single app where all transactions and mining are controlled.
The referral-based system strongly resembles a Pyramid scheme, with rewards heavily dependent on recruiting new users instead of delivering any genuine utility.
Whale Manipulation & Market Extraction:
Recent price movements show clear signs of whale manipulation - a tactic used to pump up the price, extract as much value as possible from retail investors, and leave smaller holders with the losses.
The latest pump seems to have created just enough liquidity for a massive final dump.
📉 My Prediction: Imminent Crash Ahead
Short-term target: Expect PI to fall to $0.20 as whales continue to unload their holdings, draining liquidity from hopeful investors.
Mid-term collapse: Within the next few weeks or months, the price could plummet to as low as $0.005 as legal investigations intensify and user trust erodes completely.
Long-term outlook: Once the app is removed from major platforms, and regulatory action kicks in, the Pi Network could become entirely worthless - similar to what happened with BitConnect.
❗ Final Thoughts:
If you're still holding onto PI thinking a turnaround is possible, you’re risking everything on a collapsing pyramid. The recent pumps aren’t a sign of strength - they’re the final attempts by insiders to extract whatever value remains from unsuspecting holders.
The Pi Network isn’t just another failing crypto project—it’s a glorified fraud that has preyed on vulnerable communities, exploiting users' data while delivering zero real value.
Don’t be the last person left holding the bag when the inevitable crash happens. 🚫💥
ARISTA NETWORKS ($ANET) ZAPS Q4—AI & CLOUD FUEL SURGEARISTA NETWORKS ( NYSE:ANET ) ZAPS Q4—AI & CLOUD FUEL SURGE
(1/9)
Good evening, TradingView! Arista Networks ( NYSE:ANET ) is buzzing—$ 7B in 2024 revenue, up 19.5% 📈🔥. Q4 shines with AI and cloud demand—let’s unpack this tech titan! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE RUSH
• 2024 Haul: $ 7B—19.5% jump from $ 5.86B 💥
• Q4 Take: $ 1.93B—25.3% up, beats $ 1.9B 📊
• EPS: $ 0.65—tops $ 0.57, up 25%
NYSE:ANET ’s humming—cloud’s got juice!
(3/9) – BIG PLAYS
• Q1 ‘25 Guide: 1.93 − 1.97B—above $ 1.907B 🌍
• Stock Split: 4-for-1—shares for all! 🚗
• AI Ties: Meta, NVIDIA deals spark buzz 🌟
NYSE:ANET ’s wiring the future—full throttle!
(4/9) – SECTOR SNAP
• P/E: ~54—premium vs. Cisco’s 17 📈
• Growth: 19.5% smokes sector’s 7%
• Edge: 70-80% Microsoft share—kingpin 🌍
NYSE:ANET ’s hot—value or stretch?
(5/9) – RISKS IN VIEW
• Clients: Microsoft, Meta—big eggs, one basket ⚠️
• Comp: Cisco bites back—AI race heats 🏛️
• Economy: Capex cuts could sting 📉
High flyer—can it dodge the turbulence?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• AI Lead: $ 750M ‘25 target—cloud king 🌟
• Margins: 64.6%—profit punch 🔍
• Cash: 95% flow jump, no debt 🚦
NYSE:ANET ’s a lean, mean machine!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Client lean, high P/E 💸
• Opportunities: AI clusters, enterprise zip 🌍
Can NYSE:ANET zap past the risks?
(8/9) – NYSE:ANET ’s Q4 buzz—what’s your vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI keeps it soaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s solid, risks linger.
3️⃣ Bearish—Premium fades fast.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
NYSE:ANET ’s $ 1.93B Q4 and AI deals spark zing—$ 7B year shines 🌍. Premium P/E, but growth rules—champ or chase?
Halving: Diminishing returns and degrading coefficient. To be honest, I think the only thing someone has to do to make a working theory on the halving is to look at the coefficient between SPX and BTC.
The 30 co during this "Cycle" has been over 70%. Which is higher than the co of BTC forecast and actual price move.
This coefficient would drop to around 0.5 if BTC trades 10 - 20K lower (which would also annul all the rules of the halving, essentially breaking the thesis).
But apart from all that, let's take a look at the diminishing returns and degrading coefficient that tell us the halving seems to be losing it's prediction power in BTC.
Diminishing Returns of Bitcoin Halvings
Bitcoin Halvings: Occur every 4 years, cutting the mining block reward in half to control Bitcoin's supply, leading to potential price increases due to greater scarcity.
Historical Halving Price Increases:
1st Halving (2012): Bitcoin price surged by ~5,500%.
2nd Halving (2016): Price increased by ~1,250%.
3rd Halving (2020): Price rose by ~700%.
Trend of Diminishing Returns: The percentage gains after each halving are decreasing, signaling that the scarcity effect is becoming less impactful.
Factors Contributing to Diminishing Returns:
Market Maturation: As Bitcoin’s market grows, the reduced issuance becomes less significant.
Supply Dynamics: With the cap approaching 21 million BTC, the absolute reduction in new BTC per halving diminishes, reducing scarcity.
Conclusion: While price increases continue, the diminishing percentage gains suggest halvings are less influential over time.
The Diminishing Coefficient of the Halving Thesis and Real Outcomes
Halving Thesis: Predicts price increases due to reduced Bitcoin supply (assuming constant or rising demand).
Evidence Supporting the Thesis:
Post-halving price rallies support the thesis: significant increases in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
Challenges to the Thesis:
Diminishing Impact: The percentage price gains are reducing (5,500% → 1,250% → 700%), suggesting the scarcity effect weakens over time.
External Factors:
Market Sentiment: Speculative buying can exaggerate price movements.
Macroeconomic Conditions: Inflation and financial crises may overshadow the halving's effect.
Miner Dynamics: Lower rewards may affect security, but higher prices have historically balanced this out.
Short-Term vs Long-Term: Short-term reactions can be volatile, but the long-term trend remains upward, indicating the halving thesis still holds.
Correlation Coefficient Between BTC and SPX
What it Measures: The correlation between Bitcoin’s price movements and the S&P 500 (SPX), reflecting Bitcoin’s role in the financial landscape.
Historical Context:
Early Years: Bitcoin had a low or negative correlation with SPX, often moving inversely.
2019: BTC showed a sharp negative correlation with SPX during its bull run, suggesting it was a hedge against traditional markets.
Recent Trends:
In the past 5 years, especially during macroeconomic disruptions (e.g., COVID-19), Bitcoin has shown a strong positive correlation with SPX.
The 30-day correlation has frequently exceeded 70%, indicating Bitcoin’s behavior as a risk asset in times of market stress.
You can copy and paste the a
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market Heist Plan Bearish🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 0.90500 (swing Trade) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 0.88000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/CHF "The Swissy" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
🌟Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CHF pair is influenced by:
Interest Rate Differential: The difference between the Federal Reserve's interest rates and the Swiss National Bank's interest rates.
Economic Growth: The US GDP growth rate and the Swiss GDP growth rate.
Inflation Rates: The US inflation rate and the Swiss inflation rate.
🌟Macroeconomic Analysis
Key macroeconomic indicators to watch:
US GDP Growth Rate: Expected to slow down in 2025.
Swiss GDP Growth Rate: Expected to remain stable in 2025.
US Inflation Rate: Expected to decrease in 2025.
Swiss Inflation Rate: Expected to remain low in 2025.
🌟COT Data Analysis
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows:
Net Long Positions: Decreased by 10,000 contracts.
Net Short Positions: Increased by 5,000 contracts.
🌟Market Sentimental Analysis
Market sentiment for USD/CHF is:
Bearish: 55% of investors expect the pair to fall.
Bullish: 30% of investors expect the pair to rise.
Neutral: 15% of investors remain neutral.
🌟Positioning Analysis
Traders are advised to:
Consider short-term investments: As the USD/CHF pair is expected to experience high volatility.
Monitor market news: As central bank decisions and global economic data may impact the pair.
🌟Quantitative Analysis
Technical indicators show:
Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are indicating a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is indicating an oversold condition.
🌟Intermarket Analysis
The USD/CHF pair is highly correlated with:
EUR/USD: A stronger euro may boost the Swiss franc against the US dollar.
USD/JPY: A weaker US dollar may boost the Swiss franc against the yen.
🌟News and Events Analysis
Upcoming events that may impact the USD/CHF pair include:
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Decision: March 19, 2025
Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decision: March 20, 2025
🌟Next Trend Move
The USD/CHF pair may experience a:
Bearish move: Driven by the interest rate differential and economic growth.
🌟Overall Summary Outlook
The USD/CHF pair is expected to:
Experience high volatility: Due to central bank decisions and global economic data.
Remain bearish: In the short-term, driven by the interest rate differential and economic growth.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
$BTC/USDT Trading IdeaBitcoin still looks strong if you’re smart enough to zoom out. Here’s my bearish scenario before we switch back into bullish mode.
Looking at the entire rally on the daily timeframe, the Golden Zone sits around $75,000 (+/-). That would be roughly a -30% to -35% drawdown in total.
I hope I’m wrong, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Buckle up.
EUR/AUD Buyers Face Resistance Amid Australian Dollar WeaknessOn the four-hour chart, EUR/AUD has successfully broken above its previous downtrend and now trades above the 100-period moving average, reinforcing a short-term bullish outlook. Buyers have managed to clear the 1.65192 resistance level, extending the rally toward the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the latest bearish swing at 1.65433. A sustained break above this level could trigger a continuation toward 1.65740 and 1.66078, reinforcing the upward momentum.
However, failure to maintain momentum above 1.65433 could result in a pullback, with initial support at 1.64854. A break below this level would shift focus to the 1.64306 support zone, which, if breached, would invalidate the bullish outlook and confirm a reversal.
Read full article on our website:
erranteacademy.com
Crypto Market Cap: Short-Term Pullback Before Major RecoveryTechnical Analysis
The chart illustrates a well-defined ascending channel for the total crypto market cap (excluding BTC), currently experiencing a downward retracement. The price action suggests a probable dip towards the lower boundary of the channel around the $969 billion support zone before rebounding significantly. This level aligns with previous price reactions and serves as a strong demand zone, making it a potential bottom before the market resumes its uptrend.
Fundamental Analysis
Liquidity Flow & Market Sentiment
The broader market has seen increasing stablecoin dominance (such as USDT’s market cap exceeding $130 billion), indicating risk-off behavior as investors move to safety. This suggests a short-term sell-off in altcoins before a reinvestment phase.
Institutional inflows into ETFs (like Ethereum and broader crypto ETFs) will likely drive the next bullish wave, but the current correction reflects temporary uncertainty.
Macroeconomic Factors
Interest Rate Policies: If the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts in mid-2025, risk assets (including crypto) will likely benefit from increased liquidity.
Regulatory Clarity: The market is awaiting key regulatory developments, especially in the U.S. and EU, which could influence capital inflows into crypto.
Altcoin Cycle & Market Recovery
Historically, the crypto market experiences phases of correction before a strong recovery. With the next Bitcoin halving approaching (April 2025), the overall crypto market cap is expected to rebound as bullish momentum returns.
DeFi, gaming, and AI-based tokens continue to gain traction, setting the stage for an altcoin-driven rally once risk appetite returns.
Conclusion
A short-term pullback to the $969 billion support level is highly probable, after which a strong bullish reversal is expected. Long-term investors might see this dip as a buying opportunity, anticipating a rally towards the upper boundary of the channel (above $2 trillion) as macroeconomic and institutional factors align in favor of crypto.
USD/JPY1-hour time frame technical analysis next move possible.This chart represents a USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) 1-hour time frame analysis. The key elements of the chart include:
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
149.294: A lower support level where price could bounce.
150.643: A resistance level that price may break through.
Red Zone (~152.000): A strong supply/resistance area where price may struggle to go higher.
2. Price Action & Prediction:
The price is currently around 149.713 and testing support near 149.294.
The black arrow suggests a bullish scenario, where price is expected to bounce from support and move towards 150.643, potentially reaching the 152.000 resistance zone.
3. Technical Patterns:
A potential breakout setup where price may push higher if it holds above support.
Price previously rejected from the red supply zone (~152.000), meaning it could face resistance again if it reaches there.
This chart suggests a possible buy opportunity around 149.294, with targets at 150.643 and 152.000. However, if price breaks below support, the setup could become invalid.
Australian CPI Data: AUD/NZD on the RadarAustralian CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index) will be released tomorrow at 12:30 am GMT. Based on estimates from Refinitiv, the year-on-year (YY) CPI print is forecast to have risen by 2.5% in January, matching December’s reading (2024). However, the current estimate range remains broad: between a high of 2.9% and a low of 2.1%.
RBA: Cautionary Cut
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off its easing cycle, lowering the Cash Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% from 4.35%. Citing easing inflationary pressures, the rate cut – its first since 2020 – followed 13 rate hikes that commenced in early 2022.
Although the move was widely anticipated, market participants largely viewed the policy move as hawkish; the RBA remained data-dependent and essentially poured cold water on further easing in the immediate term. RBA Governor Bullock also emphasised this in her press conference. Nevertheless, money markets are still eyeing May’s meeting for another 25 bp cut, with another 25 bp reduction potentially in the books at the tail end of the year.
The RBA highlighted that the Australian jobs market is tight – interestingly, jobs growth for January grew by 44,000, comfortably surpassing market estimates of a 20,000 gain. Alongside this, underlying inflation forecasts were revised slightly higher. However, on the dovish side of things, as already noted, the central bank recognised that inflation had cooled quicker than expected, wage pressures had eased, and growth was subdued in private demand.
AUD/NZD Hovering Ahead of Support
A pair I will be monitoring closely is the AUD/NZD cross (Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pencilled in a third consecutive 50 bp rate cut last week, bringing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.75% from 4.25%. Unlike the RBA’s cautious tone, the RBNZ struck a dovish stance, noting the scope to ease policy further this year ‘if economic conditions continue to evolve as projected’. Of note, the RBNZ also projected a lower OCR this year than the November 2024 projections, broadly aligning with market pricing. Investors forecast 54 bps worth of cuts this year, with the first 25 bp rate cut possibly as soon as the next meeting in April.
In any case, technically, the AUD/NZD pair faded long-term daily resistance from NZ$1.1175 (boasting history as far back as 2018) and recently stepped beneath daily support at NZ$1.1088 (now marked resistance). The next downside support target can be found at NZ$1.1048. While resistance is in play, it is essential to note that the trend remains to the upside, albeit momentum has slowed considerably.
Should we see stronger Australian inflation data tomorrow, I will watch for a spike to support from NZ$1.1048 followed by a rebound or a break north of resistance at NZ$1.1088. Given how close these levels are to current price action, immediately attempting to trade out of the risk event could be challenging; the more prudent approach could be to observe price action before pulling the trigger, if at all.
Conversely, a downside surprise in the inflation data would have me looking at a break of NZ$1.1048. This could open the door for a short-term selling opportunity towards support at NZ$1.1022. A break lower also makes sense from a technical perspective. The area I highlighted in orange is between NZ$1.1040 and NZ$1.1074 and will likely be viewed as robust demand in light of the base holding firm on 18 February (thanks to the RBA’s hawkish cut). Therefore, with protective stop loss orders likely positioned beneath this zone (sell stops), a break of here could trigger short-term breakout selling towards the next evident support at NZ$1.1022 (which I expect may trigger some profit-taking).
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will Trade Tensions Push It Lower? EUR/USD has been struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.0500 mark, facing renewed selling pressure as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influence sentiment. With the US Dollar regaining strength and concerns about European economic stagnation growing, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance Levels: 1.0532 (January 27 high), 1.0629 (December peak), 1.0744 (200-day SMA).
Support Levels: 1.0405 (55-day SMA), 1.0282 (February 10 low), 1.0209 (February 3 low), and 1.0176 (January 13 YTD low).
Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating modest momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 15, suggesting a weakening trend.
Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 1.0744 serves as a key dynamic resistance, while the 55-day SMA at 1.0405 acts as interim support.
Fundamental Analysis:
Several key fundamental factors are exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD:
Trade Policy Uncertainty: While US tariff tensions have temporarily eased, lingering trade disputes, including a 10% duty on Chinese imports and potential EU-targeted tariffs, keep investors cautious.
Diverging Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve remains firm on keeping interest rates elevated, while the European Central Bank has begun rate cuts, signaling weaker economic confidence in the Eurozone.
Economic Growth Divergence: The US economy continues to show resilience with robust labor markets and stable inflation, while the Eurozone faces stagnation and potential contraction, particularly in Germany.
European Political Risks: Uncertainty in Germany and wider Eurozone economic struggles add to the Euro’s bearish outlook, making it less attractive compared to the US Dollar.
The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with key support levels in focus. Trade policies, central bank divergence, and economic growth disparities continue to drive market sentiment. This week is pivotal for the Eurozone, with key economic data releases culminating in Friday’s PMI figures, which could determine the pair’s next major move. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both technical and fundamental developments.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Brace for Impact: NQ’s 15% Plunge AheadAgainst the backdrop of current market conditions and based on the collected indicators, the situation for the NQ index appears rather unfavorable. If the price fails to hold above the 21850 level in the near term, there is a high probability of a scenario where the current price declines by 15%. This forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis that includes both technical and fundamental indicators.
Considering the possibility of further decline, I have decided to hold a short position, distributing profit targets to optimize risk. The strategy involves setting a stop-loss at 21860, which will help mitigate potential losses in the event of an unexpected market reversal. The profit target levels are broken down into several stages:
Take 1: 20900
Take 2: 20150
Take 3: 18500
Current data indicate the realism of this scenario, and therefore it is crucial to closely monitor market behavior, especially around the key level of 21850. Should that level be breached, the short-term decline may materialize faster than expected, making this trading idea particularly attractive for a short strategy.
Always remember the importance of risk management and regularly reviewing positions in response to market changes.
Buy the Yen!If you've been following my content, you'll know I've been long the yen since the start of 2025. My short AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY, NOKJPY, and NZDJPY positions are starting to pay off!
The yen index ( TVC:JXY ) recently closed above a key horizontal resistance at 66.00. This may signal the JPY may continue to strengthen and test the weekly range resistance at 71.00.
OANDA:AUDJPY
OANDA:CADJPY
OANDA:EURJPY
OANDA:GBPJPY
OANDA:NZDJPY
OANDA:USDJPY
GBP/USD HOLDS ABOVE 1.2600 AMID CAUTIOUS MARKETSGBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 in European trading on tuesday,helped by a fresh bout of Us Dollor Selling even as markets remain cautious amid trade war fears.Atention turns to BOE chief Economist pill's speech and US consumer Confidence data for further impetus.
$DXY HOLDS FIRM—TRUMP TARIFFS & FED FUEL 2025 BUZZTVC:DXY HOLDS FIRM—TRUMP TARIFFS & FED FUEL 2025 BUZZ
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! The U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) sits at 106.47 today—tariffs and Fed vibes keep it humming 📈🔥. Down a hair from 106.60—let’s unpack this greenback glow! 🚀
(2/9) – YEARLY SURGE
• 2024 Run: From 100.16 to 107+ by Dec 💥
• Today: 106.47—off 0.12% from yesterday 📊
• Driver: Trump tariffs juice inflation fears
TVC:DXY ’s got grit—2025’s off to a zesty start!
(3/9) – BIG BOOSTERS
• Tariffs: Auto, chip threats—dollar darling 🌍
• Fed: Slow cuts—rates outshine abroad 🚗
• Crypto Nod: Pro- AMEX:USD admin vibes 🌟
Greenback’s flexing—policy packs a punch!
(4/9) – MARKET PULSE
• Vs. Peers: Outpaces euro, yen—rate gaps shine 📈
• X Chatter: 107 peak, post-swearing dip?
• Edge: U.S. growth trumps global woes 🌍
TVC:DXY ’s steady—king of the currency hill?
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Deficits: Fiscal bloat looms long-term ⚠️
• Geo-Tension: Wars nudge safe-haven bets 🏛️
• Fed Pivot: Faster cuts could dim shine 📉
Tough tailwinds—can TVC:DXY dodge the drag?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Tariffs: Inflation lift—dollar darling 🌟
• Rates: Fed’s edge over ECB, BOJ 🔍
• Haven: Chaos loves $ USD—rock solid 🚦
TVC:DXY ’s got muscle—global star!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Debt piles—future wobble? 💸
• Opportunities: Tariff hikes zap rivals 🌍
Can TVC:DXY keep the crown or stumble?
(8/9) – TVC:DXY at 106.47—what’s your vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—108+ by spring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Holds steady, risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Dips below 100 soon.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
TVC:DXY ’s 106.47 glow—tariffs, Fed, and grit shine 🌍🪙. Deficits lurk, but strength rules—bull or bust?
Buy Gold The Grok AI controversy has minimal direct impact on gold prices. However, if it leads to broader market uncertainty or tech sector instability, investors might seek gold as a safe haven, potentially driving prices up. For now, gold remains stable, so no strong buy/sell signal solely based on this event. Keep an eye on broader market trends.…so we can look on a potential short term sell thus, an accumulation phase
Sell GoldThe Grok AI controversy has minimal direct impact on gold prices. However, if it leads to broader market uncertainty or tech sector instability, investors might seek gold as a safe haven, potentially driving prices up. For now, gold remains stable, so no strong buy/sell signal solely based on this event. Keep an eye on broader market trends.…so we can look on a potential short term sell thus, an accumulation phase