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Fundamental Analysis

GC (XAU) 1H Supply Short IdeaThis is a solid short setup. The fundamentals are strong, retailers are on the other side of the trade, and seasonality is in our favor. It's also overvalued compared to some other assets. The main concern is the current sentiment-driven economic environment, where a single news headline can shift the entire market cycle. Additionally, there are a few supply zones above our entry level, which pose some risk. However, the nearest 4H supply zone has already absorbed a significant number of orders, which reduces its strength. This makes it reasonable to take the trade now rather than waiting for price to reach that zone.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by AlexiosCorporation
BTC - Another Potential Bearish PatternHere I present my second alternative for a Bearish case for Bitcoin. Per my previous posts I explain in detail the interest in recollecting liquidity in these lower zones. Previously I presented pathways to the uber lows at 7,000-10,000 - however this is another possible case. I believe Bitcoin can see a drop from 109,200 straight down to 19,000-20,000 Why? 1. Major Volume support at this level 2. Major liquidity pools in confluence with this level 3. Price would form a W bottom with a higher low - which aligns with DXY breaking down on the monthly time frame. We can use DXY to project a bull market spanning 2-5 years (weakening dollar = more interest in deflationary assets such as Bitcoin) 4. Per the note above, it’s unlikely that BTC continues straight up without a sharp drop. The way this market works is to a large degree with leverage trading. The market and exchanges desperately want to shake out these longs, especially if we consider a 2-5 year bullish forecast through a macro view. 5. Confluence with this diagonal trendline which shows a clear support / resistance structure (note the Bitcoin chart is formed via diagonal ascending support and resistance lines - we can demonstrate this clearly and repeatable by duplicating the correct trendline and seeing how it forms the chart at any location) Personally, I am shorting Bitcoin from 109,000 - and am expecting to see a fast drop through the rest of the weekend. I will watch what the price does, where it reacts and interacts, and attempt to get a head start on understanding the true bottom before this “true” bull cycle begins. Happy trading
Short
by DickDandy
30
24th May 2025Bitcoin just made its ATH in the last week, 112.000 creating a change of character, also the candle in th Daily timeframe closed positive (above previous ATH 109k) Waiting for the close on the weekly. OTHERS is at 268.47B market cap, my expectation is OTHERS to increase more to catch up with BTC rally. Bearish Case: -War between Ukraine and Russia intensifies. (Increasing) -Mayor war conflict. -Japan bond market. -Stock market crash. -QT (High Interest rates). Bullish Case: -Lowering Interest rates. -Increasing M2 global money supply. -Bond market ??? - No recession fears.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by ipaladin
The BIG swing play!Been tracking BTC on monthly with Andrews pitchfork. Seems to be right on track. Note the moving average with buy/sell arrows and color coded line. Buy arrow and green line along with a green pitchfork is a solid buy. That's triple conformation. Swing trading, for me at least, seems to be the best way to avoid market maker traps and outrageous trading fees. DCA also works out nice in the long run. On a side note. Mr. Andrews was the original developer of the idea behind the pitchfork trend lines. This modified version with Fibonacci buy/sell fields is great but one has to give credit where credit is due! That's why I will always call it the Andrews Pitchfork. March on Friends!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by takemewithyou
Gold prices remain strong as tariffs heat up again Hey everyone, let's comment on the gold price next week from May 26, 2025 to May 30, 2025, 📌 Driving Events Gold prices resumed their upward momentum on Friday, surging nearly 2% on the day and up more than 5% for the week as the dollar weakened amid renewed trade tensions. Gold prices rebounded from an intraday low of $3,287 to $3,359 as escalating rhetoric from Washington fueled investor demand for safe-haven assets. U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified the trade standoff with the European Union, declaring that negotiations are "going nowhere" and threatening to impose a 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1. For months, Fed policymakers have made it clear that they want more clarity on the response from fiscal and trade policies and the economy before taking further action on interest rates. Over the past month, this cautious stance has prompted traders to withdraw their bets on a rate cut in the June meeting, and the market now expects the policy pause to continue until the July meeting. However, futures market positions show that the probability of a rate cut before the end of September is still slightly above 50%. This is essentially a bet that the situation will become clearer in the next four months: either slowing inflation paves the way for policy easing, or the economic deterioration forces the Fed to increase stimulus. 📊Comment Analysis Tariff news has begun to heat up again, and the United States and the rest of the world have not yet reached a consensus on negotiations, and gold prices have benefited from this rise. The big time frame shows that the price is breaking out and continuing the upward trend Technical: Based on the resistance and support levels of gold on the 4-hour chart, Labaron has identified the following important key areas: Resistance: $3412, $3436 Support: $3315, $3280, $3245 ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose a lot size that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the capital account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
1
EURAUD – Bullish Breakout from Inverse Head & Shoulders + Target🔍 Pattern Insight: Inverse Head & Shoulders – A Powerful Reversal Formation On the weekly timeframe, EURAUD has completed and broken out of a textbook Inverse Head & Shoulders (IHS) pattern — a highly regarded bullish reversal setup that often signals the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a sustainable uptrend. Let’s break it down: Left Shoulder: Formed in mid-2021 after a strong downtrend, price found support and rebounded, forming the initial shoulder low. Head: A lower low was established around early 2022, marking the deepest point of the pattern. This represents the last dominant push by sellers before exhaustion. Right Shoulder: In late 2022 to early 2023, bulls stepped in earlier than before, establishing a higher low — a strong sign of decreasing bearish momentum and accumulation. Neckline : A descending resistance trendline connecting the peaks between the shoulders and the head. Once broken, it confirms the IHS breakout and trend reversal. This multi-year formation reflects a major psychological shift: sellers lost control at the head, and buyers gradually regained dominance at the right shoulder, eventually breaking resistance. 📉 Retest in Progress – High Probability Entry Zone Post-breakout, price action has pulled back for a technical retest of the neckline and curve line support — a dynamic trendline representing growing bullish momentum. This retest is essential for validating the breakout and building the base for a continuation rally. The convergence of support zones (neckline + curve line) around the 1.70–1.72 area provides a strong confluence zone where buyers may step in again. This is often viewed as a second-chance entry for traders who missed the breakout. 🎯 Measured Target Projection & Resistance Levels The IHS pattern gives us a clear measured move: Measured Move Target: Distance from the head to neckline (~2,800+ pips) projected from the breakout point. Target Zone: 1.92 – 1.95, just above the major resistance zone. Resistance Zone: 1.85 – 1.87 is a historically significant supply area and may act as interim resistance. Break and close above the resistance zone would further validate the bullish trajectory and open the door for higher targets. 📌 Risk Management – Defined Parameters To manage risk effectively, consider: Stop Loss: Below the recent retest low and curve line support, ideally placed at 1.63848, protecting against a false breakout. Entry Idea: If bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, higher low on lower timeframe) appears at retest zone, initiate a long position. Risk-to-Reward (RR): Targeting 1.92 from an entry around 1.72 offers a 4:1 RR or better — highly attractive for swing and position traders. 🧠 Psychological and Structural Significance This pattern is not just technical — it represents behavioral change in the market: The head shows capitulation — a final wave of bearish pressure. The right shoulder indicates growing confidence in bulls and waning selling interest. The neckline breakout is where sentiment flips — traders recognize the change and enter long positions, fueling the breakout. The current retest phase is crucial. Many professional traders wait for this moment to confirm that support holds before fully committing. 🔎 Final Thoughts & Strategy Trend has shifted bullish on the weekly chart after years of consolidation and decline. We’re seeing a classic breakout–retest–continuation setup. A breakout above 1.85 would likely trigger momentum traders and institutions, driving price swiftly toward the 1.92–1.95 range. Invalidation: Break below 1.63848 would invalidate the pattern and shift sentiment back to neutral or bearish. 📈 Trade Plan Summary: Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders (weekly) Bias: Bullish Entry Zone: 1.70 – 1.73 (retest area) Target: 1.92+ Stop Loss: Below 1.63848 Risk Level: Medium (weekly setup, but long-term play)
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
XAUUSD Bullish Flag Breakout – $4,300 Target in SightGold (XAU/USD) continues its strong bullish momentum in 2025, and the current price structure reveals a classic bullish flag pattern on the daily chart, suggesting further upside. This setup presents a potential continuation of the prevailing uptrend, possibly leading to new all-time highs in the coming months. 🟢 1. Clear Bullish Trend Foundation Gold has been in a strong uptrend since late 2024, supported by: Global inflationary pressures. Geopolitical instability. Central bank gold purchases and dollar weakness. This uptrend is visually supported by a well-defined rising structure, with higher highs and higher lows. 📐 2. Bullish Flag Pattern Formation The current price action has formed a bullish flag, a bullish continuation pattern that appears after a sharp rally. The flag represents a period of consolidation or pullback before the next impulsive move up. The flagpole is the sharp rally that took place from mid-February to April 2025. The flag itself is a downward-sloping channel or wedge, indicating temporary profit-taking or market indecision. Volume typically decreases during the flag formation, then surges on breakout—confirming trend continuation. This pattern is now showing signs of a breakout to the upside, suggesting the bulls are regaining control. 🔍 3. Key Technical Levels 🔹 Major Resistance Zone (~3,500–3,600): This zone has acted as a supply region in the past. Price is now testing this level and attempting a breakout. A successful retest of this zone as new support will confirm the breakout. 🎯 Projected Target: $4,300+ Measured move target based on the flagpole’s height. Clean projection points to the 4,300–4,350 area as the next major upside objective. 🛑 Support & Stop-Loss : Strong support exists around $3,125, aligning with the flag base. This area is a logical stop-loss zone for traders entering on the breakout. 🔁 4. Expected Price Behavior Breakout: Price is expected to break above the flag resistance and the horizontal supply zone. Retest Phase: A pullback toward the breakout zone (~3,600) could occur before the next impulsive move. This would offer a prime buy-on-dip opportunity. Final Impulse: A sharp rally could follow, targeting the 4,300+ region. 💡 5. Trading Psychology Behind the Setup During the flag formation, short-term traders take profit, and new buyers hesitate due to perceived overbought conditions. However, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, with larger players accumulating during dips. Once the resistance breaks, fear of missing out (FOMO) often drives prices sharply higher. ⚠️ 6. Risk Factors to Watch Sudden USD strength or rising real yields. Geopolitical de-escalation that reduces safe-haven demand. FOMC rate surprises or unexpected hawkish policy shifts. ✅ Conclusion: Bullish Breakout Setup in Play Gold is poised for another leg up after completing a textbook bullish flag pattern. With macroeconomic tailwinds and a solid technical base, this setup offers a high-probability long opportunity targeting the $4,300 zone. Watch for a confirmed breakout and possible retest to load long positions with solid risk-reward.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
EUR/JPY Technical Breakdown: Rising Wedge Breakdown + Target🔺 1. Rising Wedge Pattern Explained A Rising Wedge is formed when: Price action creates higher highs and higher lows, but The slope of the support line is steeper than the resistance line. This signals that buyers are losing strength, and momentum is fading. In this chart: The wedge began forming around mid-February 2025. Price was compressing within converging trendlines. After multiple failed breakouts near resistance (~165.50), the pair finally broke below the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakout. This pattern is considered reliable because it traps late buyers and shifts sentiment from bullish to bearish quickly once the lower boundary is breached. 🔻 2. Key Technical Zones 📌 Major Resistance Zone (~165.00 – 166.00) Strong supply area; price has rejected here multiple times since late 2023. Resistance was confirmed again during the wedge formation. High volume spike noted near this level, followed by a steep drop—evidence of distribution and smart money exiting long positions. 📌 Major Support Zone (~156.00 – 157.00) Historically held as a demand zone. Previous bounces suggest it is structurally significant. However, repeated tests can weaken the zone, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown. 🎯 Target Price: 153.433 Measured by taking the height of the wedge and projecting it from the breakout point. Coincides with a previously tested level (support turned target). Bears could aim for this level as a swing target. 📉 3. Market Psychology Behind the Pattern As price climbs inside a rising wedge, volume often declines, showing buyer exhaustion. False breakouts near the top of the wedge trap breakout traders, adding fuel to the downside move once price breaks the lower boundary. The sharp selloff post-breakout is often driven by stop-loss cascades and aggressive short positioning. 🔁 4. Potential Price Path & Trade Plan Retest in Progress: Price may retest the broken wedge support (now resistance) near 163.00–164.00 before further decline. This retest zone offers a high-probability short entry opportunity with tight risk management. Immediate Downside Levels: 160.00 (psychological level), 157.00 (support zone), and final target at 153.43. Bearish Continuation Scenario: If the pair maintains below the wedge and forms lower highs, it confirms ongoing bearish sentiment. 🛑 5. Risk Factors to Monitor ECB or BOJ monetary policy shifts (rate cuts/hikes, yield curve control updates). Risk-on vs risk-off flows, especially in times of geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks. Intervention by the Bank of Japan to protect JPY from excessive weakening. ✅ Conclusion: A Tactical Short Opportunity The EUR/JPY chart is setting up for a potential medium-term short swing trade following a confirmed rising wedge breakdown. With clear rejection from a long-standing resistance zone and fading bullish momentum, the technicals align for a move toward 153.43 over the coming weeks. Traders should watch for clean retests and structure-based entries, managing risk around 164.50 with profit-taking at key support zones along the path.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY - H1 - Channel Breakout (17.05.2025) The Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 142.40 2nd Support – 140.17 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
61
GBP/AUD - Bullish Channel (22.05.2025)The GBP/AUD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 2.0961 2nd Resistance – 2.1047 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
35
Bullish setup forming on $DOGE without retail interest.Bitcoin suggest further upside potential. The bullish momentum appears robust, indicating a possible continuation of the upward trend.Altcoins: Altcoins are currently stagnant, showing little movement. This flat performance may be attributed to retail investors' trauma from the 2021 cycle and recent market volatility, such as tariff-related concerns, which have likely dampened enthusiasm and participation. Dogecoin (DOGE): On the 960-minute timeframe, DOGE is demonstrating strong demand, particularly if the price dips lower. Currently, the price is retesting the recent breakout level. The chart shows a support zone around the 0.02073 level and a descending trendline resistance being tested. If DOGE holds above the support and breaks above the trendline, it could signal a continuation of the breakout. To end the analysis, the chart shows on the 60 min an immediate reverse head and shoulders pattern, very bullish on both the short and medium term. However, a failure to hold support might lead to further downside.
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by choycekotori
EUR/GBP – Bearish Triangle Breakdown in Play (Long-Term Setup)This EUR/GBP weekly chart is flashing a long-term bearish triangle pattern that has finally broken down, signaling potential for a major move to the downside. This setup is packed with high-confluence signals that traders should not ignore. 🔍 Pattern Breakdown: 📐 Bearish Triangle Pattern The pair has been forming lower highs while maintaining a relatively flat support base, forming a descending triangle, a classically bearish continuation pattern. The pressure has been building for over 6 years, with buyers failing to make new highs while sellers stepped in aggressively at lower levels. The triangle support has now been broken, and price is entering a retest phase, which is critical for confirming the breakdown. 🟧 Black Mind Curve Resistance A unique visual tool here is the Black Mind Curve — a curved trendline that mirrors the psychology of long-term resistance. This curve has consistently capped price action since the 2009 peak, reinforcing the dominance of sellers in this zone. Every time price reached this curve, it reversed — confirming it as a dynamic resistance. 🧱 Major Horizontal Resistance Zone The shaded blue zone around 0.92–0.93 represents a long-term resistance area, which has repeatedly rejected price for over a decade. This zone also aligns with the Black Mind Curve, adding to the confluence. The most recent swing high failed to break this area, and the pair rolled over again. 🔄 Retesting in Progress After the recent breakdown of triangle support, price is currently retesting the underside of the broken support line (now acting as resistance). This is a textbook setup: break → retest → continuation. If this retest fails (which is likely based on history), the bearish move should resume. 🎯 Bearish Target Projection The projected move from the triangle breakdown points to the 0.64330 area, which aligns with a major support level from early 2007 and 2008. This level is a high-probability magnet if the pattern plays out in full — giving a long-term swing trade or position-trading opportunity. 🧠 Why This Matters (Pro Insights) This chart is powerful because: It’s on the weekly timeframe – high conviction and larger moves. It shows a long-term squeeze finally breaking. Resistance is reinforced by multiple layers (curve + horizontal zone). Retest confirms possible continuation sell setup. This isn’t a short-term scalp — it’s a position trade idea that could develop over months or even a couple years, with a massive risk-reward potential. ⚠️ Trade Plan Summary Bias: Bearish Pattern: Descending Triangle (broken) Current Action: Retesting broken support Entry Zone: On bearish rejection near 0.8400–0.8450 Stop Loss: Above resistance zone (around 0.9285) Target: 0.64330 Risk/Reward: Potentially >4:1 on a swing basis
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
EUR/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish Opportunity in Sight🔍 Technical Breakdown 🟦 1. Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish) The price has been moving within a tightening upward channel — forming higher highs and higher lows, but with decreasing momentum. This is a typical Rising Wedge, a pattern that signals exhaustion in an uptrend and typically resolves to the downside. The pattern formed over several days. Volume has been declining as the price pushed higher — a classic sign of weakening trend strength. 🚨 2. Major Resistance Zone The wedge culminated near a major historical resistance zone (around 1.1400), which price failed to break multiple times — showing strong seller presence. This adds confluence to the bearish breakdown. 📉 3. Breakdown & Retest Price broke below the lower wedge trendline, confirming the bearish reversal. After the breakdown, the pair appears to be retesting the previous support line — now acting as new resistance. This retest is crucial — a successful rejection here typically confirms the breakdown and provides an ideal entry point for short positions. ⚡ Volume Clues Note the "Volume Burst" earlier in the chart, followed by a sharp move up. But that rally was unsustainable — buyers couldn’t hold above resistance, and volume has since faded. This volume exhaustion is further evidence that bullish momentum is weakening. 🔄 Key Support Zones Below Around 1.1200: A strong SR flip zone (support-turned-resistance), which could act as temporary support. Final Bearish Target: Around 1.1070, a strong demand zone where price previously consolidated before the last bullish run. This is the measured move target from the wedge height applied to the breakdown point. 🧠 Why This Matters (Trader Insight) This setup combines: A reliable bearish pattern (rising wedge) Key horizontal resistance A volume drop A clean retest structure That makes it a high-confluence short trade idea. These patterns don't always play out immediately, but when they do, they often drop hard. 📌 Trade Setup Summary Bias: Bearish Pattern : Rising Wedge (broken) Current Action: Retesting the broken wedge Entry Zone: 1.135–1.138 (retest confirmation) First Target: 1.1200 (SR Flip) Final Target: 1.1070 (Demand Zone) Invalidation: Break and hold above 1.1410
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
1
JPY/USD Weekly Chart – Bullish Triangle Breakout Pattern Forming🔍 Chart Pattern Breakdown: The chart is showing a symmetrical triangle pattern forming on the weekly timeframe of JPY/USD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar). This triangle is developing after a massive multi-year downtrend, which started all the way back in 2021. Such a triangle at the bottom of a trend often signals a potential reversal or a strong trend shift. Here's what's happening technically: 🔺 Triangle Formation (Consolidation Phase): Lower highs and higher lows indicate a clear symmetrical triangle. The price has been bouncing between these converging trendlines for months. This compression is like a spring — it’s storing energy and getting ready to break out. The triangle pattern is nearing its apex, which means a breakout is likely soon. 📉 Previous Trend Context: Before the triangle, the market had a strong bearish move — a downtrend that brought the pair into a major weekly support zone. This support zone (marked in light blue) around 0.0062–0.0063 has been tested and respected multiple times. 📊 Key Technical Zones: Support Zone: 0.0062 – 0.0063 — this is where price bounced and formed the base of the triangle. Resistance Zone / Triangle Top: Around 0.0071 – this is the upper boundary of the triangle. A breakout above this will confirm the bullish scenario. Target Area: 0.00829 – derived from measuring the height of the triangle and projecting it from the breakout point. Major BOS (Break of Structure): Once price breaks above the triangle and the BOS line, it confirms a shift from bearish to bullish structure. SL Zone: Stop loss area is just below the support zone at 0.00629 to protect against false breakouts. 🔁 Retest Setup: After the breakout, it's common to see a pullback to retest the previous resistance (now turned support). That retest often provides a high-probability entry for swing and position traders. If it happens — that’s your golden moment! 🎯 Trade Plan (Example for Education): Entry Criteria Value/Zone Breakout Entry Above 0.0071 (confirmed candle close) Retest Entry 0.0069 – 0.0070 (support flip) Stop-Loss (SL) Below 0.00629 Target (TP) 0.00829 ✅ Why This Setup Matters: Clear structure on the weekly chart. Multi-touch points on both trendlines = strong pattern. Support zone backing the triangle base gives extra conviction. A breakout from such consolidation patterns often results in sharp movements. Risk/reward ratio is highly favorable. ⚠️ Risk Management Reminder: Always trade with a plan, use a stop-loss, and don’t jump into the breakout blindly. Volume confirmation or retest confirmation will help increase the success rate. These kinds of setups are powerful, but only when approached with discipline. 🧠 Final Thoughts: This JPY/USD triangle on the weekly chart is a textbook example of potential bullish reversal from a major downtrend. It’s showing signs of a structural shift, supported by strong support, tightening price action, and the chance for a breakout to deliver a major upside move toward 0.00829. If you’re a swing or position trader, keep this on your radar. Momentum is building — don’t miss the move when the breakout hits. 📈🔥
Long
by GoldMasterTrades