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Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin - Why is everyone wrong + Magic Moving AverageWe have so many warning signs that Bitcoin is going to crash significantly in 2025/2026. One of them is this magic 20-weekly moving average. As we can see, the price always respects this dynamic level, and if the price falls below it, it triggers a sell signal. On the other side, if the price rises above it, it triggers a buy signal. The price is currently below it, so this is a bearish signal. The next bad signal is this Elliott Impulse wave. What we can see here is a perfect textbook impulse wave that has been completed. If you are an Elliott Wave trader, you already see that this is a big problem. After such a wave is complete, we are always looking for an ABC correction with a fibonacci retracement tool. Use only these 3 Fibo levels, others do not work properly! Specifically, 0.618 FIB, 0.500 and 0.382 FIB. Bitcoin loves the 0.618 FIB, so there is a pretty huge chance of going down to 32k. But expect a very strong bounce from the 0.382 FIB as well, which is at 52k. Set up your buy orders here, and thank me later! What we can also see on the chart is an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 34k and 28k. Often the price loves to come back and test these important price actions. This is a great buying confluence with the 0.618 FIB because the FVG is inside this Fibo level. The last thing I want to talk about is this huge blue ascending channel on the weekly chart. This is a representation of this whole uptrend (bull market). You may say that Bitcoin is bullish until this channel holds, yeah, but what we do here is we predict future price action and give you technical analysis. I am giving you this information in advance so you can prepare for the future! Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Xanrox
151
XAU/USD 27.05.2025The sell setup is unfolding just as planned—patience pays. We entered shorts from our high-probability zone, and the price is starting to show weakness. As long as the structure holds, we anticipate further downside, with targets at $3,045 and deeper liquidity zones below. Bulls may attempt a shakeout, but as long as key levels remain protected, the sell-side narrative stays intact. Now it's all about trade management—secure profits, adjust stops, and let the market do the rest. Stay sharp.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMindsFX
USDJPY - 4H more fall expectedFX:USDJPY - 4H Update 🔻 If you've traded USDJPY in recent years, you're no stranger to the significance of the 150.00 zone. This level has historically acted as a critical resistance and psychological barrier. Now, the pair is trading below this key level and has also broken the ascending channel support on the daily timeframe, signaling that bulls are likely out of the game. The recent drop to 147.00 and bounce toward 151.00 could be setting up the next short opportunity. 📌 What to watch for: A liquidity grab above the 151.50–152.00 zone could occur before the next fall. This aligns with institutional behavior, hunting stops before continuing the trend. We're now in a sell-the-rally phase, watching for confirmations around the red zone. Remember, I previously signaled a short from the 157 zone, which played out beautifully. We’re now gearing up for the next big short, and this setup might just be it. 📉 Stay cautious, wait for price action signals, and trust the structure. 💸 If you’ve missed previous entries, don’t miss what’s coming next! 🔔 Follow for real-time updates and live trade ideas!
Short
by Sober_Trading
7
usdcad still in range ? The USD/CAD is sitting at a critical support level in its rectangular trading range. The VRVP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) shows strong institutional interest right here, and the COT reports suggest leveraged traders aren't aggressively buying USD. This points to a potential bounce or consolidation zone. The daily chart and hourly timeframe are both showing similar signs - we're at a key support where smart money seems to be positioning themselves. It's a classic setup where the market is potentially setting up for a move, but waiting for a clear catalyst. The key is watching how price respects this support level and looking for confirmation of either a bounce or a breakdown. i would want to see a solid rejection of these lower prices or a clean break below. if not the range will confirm for now
Long
by youbicode
1
Strong bullish outlook for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQM2025)Nasdaq-100 E-mini Futures (NQM2025) – Technical & Fundamental Analysis Technical Overview: My Daily chart analysis on TradingView highlights a strong bullish outlook for the E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQM2025). Here are the key takeaways: Liquidity Sweep & Support Retest: The recent decline led to a liquidity sweep (LQ SWEEP) at a critical ascending trendline. This suggests a classic stop-hunt scenario where weaker long positions were liquidated before stronger buyers stepped in. Historical price action indicates that buyers previously entered at similar levels (noted as "Buyers coming in hot here"), reinforcing this demand zone. Bullish Trendline Respect: The long-term ascending trendline has been respected, acting as a dynamic support level. The recent bounce suggests that this level remains intact, further validating the bullish structure. Order Block (OB) & Market Structure Shift (MSS): A previous bearish market structure shift (MSS) led to a short-term decline, but price has since found support and rebounded. The chart suggests a reversion to the upside, targeting prior imbalance zones and liquidity pockets. Projected Path & Targets: The green projection indicates an expectation of higher highs, likely targeting the 21,500 - 22,500 range in the coming weeks. The sell-side liquidity has been cleared, increasing the probability of a bullish move towards the order block resistance near 21,000. Fundamental Confirmation (#EdgeFinder & #COT Data): From a fundamental perspective, the bullish bias is further confirmed by EdgeFinder data and recent Commitment of Traders (COT) reports: Institutional Positioning: The latest COT data shows that institutional traders have increased their net long positions in Nasdaq futures, signaling bullish sentiment. Macroeconomic Factors: Recent economic reports and Fed statements have favored a risk-on environment, benefiting tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq. Earnings season is approaching, with expectations of strong tech sector performance potentially fueling further upside. Conclusion & Market Sentiment: The confluence of technical support, institutional buying, and positive macroeconomic factors strengthens the case for a bullish continuation in Nasdaq-100 futures. The key level to watch is 20,000—if held, the probability of a move towards 21,500 - 22,500 increases significantly. Risk factors include unexpected macroeconomic shifts or stronger-than-expected hawkish Fed rhetoric, which could slow momentum. This is not financial advice, only data analysis. Please consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by OatesTrades94
BTC DAILY - MA compression On the daily timeframe something very interesting is happening. A convergence of price around the blue KEY S/R is very interesting when you factor in what the moving averages are doing around this level also. 1D 200 EMA is completely flat having lost all of its momentum with the months of chop and then the sell-off into current levels. For a bullrun to be credible you want to see price above this level and a steady/steep slope up. Due to the lack of direction of this moving average price is able to climb above and drop below very easily and therefor it is neither support nor resistance until there is a trend. 1D 25 EMA is a different story, now that BTC has put in a local top and trending down, the 25 EMA is resistance but has been flipped in the last few days with price bouncing off the level 4 days in a row. This is good news for the bulls but the longer we linger here there is more chance dropping back under it. Diagonal resistance as simple as it is has 4 points of contact and will be a big point of resistance and one many traders will be keeping an eye on. On the lower timeframes we're seeing a bullish channel, a loss of this channel would be a huge red flag and a catalyst for a risk off event IMO, continuing the downtrend.
by ProR35
4
Mexican Peso Under PressureThe Mexican peso has posted three consecutive sessions of losses against the U.S. dollar, signaling a marked erosion in investor confidence. Particularly striking is the fact that this decline has occurred even as the dollar trades in negative territory on Thursday, highlighting the inherent weakness of the peso during the session. Two key factors appear to be driving this downward trend: on the one hand, markets are pricing in an aggressive new rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), and on the other, emerging external trade risks are further clouding the outlook for the local currency. Later today, Banxico is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points, maintaining its aggressive monetary policy easing cycle. If confirmed, this would mark the second consecutive cut of this magnitude, lowering the cost of money to 9% from the current 9.5%. It's worth recalling that during the last tightening cycle, the rate reached a historic high of 11.25%, meaning the cumulative easing would total 225 basis points with this cut. This decision comes in a context marked by persistently high inflation observed in March and continued economic weakness. While looser monetary policy aims to stimulate economic activity, it also adds downward pressure on the peso, already weakened by external factors. Compounding the situation is a challenging trade backdrop. Mexico posted a trade surplus of $2.21 billion in February, reversing January’s deficit. However, this surplus is worrisome, as it was driven largely by a sharp drop in imports rather than a strong rebound in exports, underscoring a structural weakness in domestic demand. Particularly alarming is the performance of the automotive sector, with exports falling 15.2% in February. Shipments to the United States—Mexico’s main trading partner—declined 10.7%, while exports to other international markets plunged 40.2%. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the recent announcement by President Donald Trump of a 25% tariff on vehicle and auto parts imports, generating renewed uncertainty around the future of Mexico-U.S. trade relations. The combination of internal factors such as weak domestic demand, Banxico’s monetary easing cycle, and mounting international trade uncertainty—particularly in a key sector like automotive—paints a complex and challenging outlook for the Mexican peso in the coming months. Thus, markets appear to be anticipating that this storm could continue weighing on the peso, increasing the risk of further depreciation against the U.S. dollar. The Mexican currency is undoubtedly in a vulnerable position, awaiting greater clarity from both domestic and external fronts. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
2024-2026 Exploration of 5-100x Web3 cryptos and Stock Targe【Old article on 2024-3-5】-republish due to private indicators before Time flies, nearly four years have passed since we wrote a similar article, and we feel quite satisfied as 95% of the predictions have been met. Except for Boeing, which surprisingly didn't take off, Bilibili ($19), BTC ($3800), Tiger $3, and PDD ($19) achieved the expected 5-10x growth within two years. The subsequent performances of ACH,UOS, NEAR, and ALGO provided even greater surprises with 10-80x gains. However, I continuously reflect and hope to improve my judgment since, compared to readers who directly read the articles, those of us immersed in the sea of information sometimes have our initial judgments clouded by various external factors. We prefer to express our views at relatively low or high points in advance, allowing time to silently validate these opinions. Real-time perspectives are highly attractive but also constantly at risk, demanding much energy and health. Many have faced health warnings, and we hope everyone remains healthy and happy in 2024. I lean towards identifying the start and end points, then trusting the driver and natural progression for everything in between. Returning to the topic, it has been over two and a half years since a similar article, and I will discuss a few targets and core catalysts I believe are underestimated: 1.Bitcoin (BTC) BINANCE:BTCUSD Introduction: Born in January 2009 as a hedge against inflation after the 2008 financial crisis, BTC has experienced nearly 16 years. Its underlying logic and blockchain technology have birthed foundational blockchains like Ethereum, ADA, SOL, AVAX, CFX, and Algo. BTC's development attributes have expanded potential applications, such as Stacks and RGB protocols. My ultimate expectation for BTC is simple: it could be valued highly just as a new E-GOLD for decades to come. If its ecosystem applications further explode, it could become one of this century's leading assets. Key Catalysts: The 2024 halving, reducing block rewards to 3.125 and resulting in a yearly inflation of about 0.782%, which is lower than the inflation rates of most developed countries. The next wave of funding entering the industry could be expedited by the SEC’s approval of ETFs, the alleviation of sell pressure from Grayscale's repositioning and MGOT, and traditional financial risks causing forced rescue actions by BTC-holding companies to pass. ● Expected Valuation: $200,000 MC: 4.2 trillion USD, marking the beginning of a new world, extensively unfolding application scenarios Reminder: It's important to emphasize that long-term expected valuations do not imply a straight path upwards from current price points. There might be an average upward trend, but short-term intense volatility is possible. Always remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. This reminder is also placed here for additional caution. 2.Telegram Ime ( POLONIEX:LIMEUSDT Lime) & TON ( BINANCE:TONUSDT TON) Introduction Ime Messenger is a special version of Telegram, integrating functionalities such as a multi-chain wallet, enabling direct transfers of various blockchain assets like BTC, ETH, AVAX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, AVAX, etc., among Telegram friends. It incorporates features like Binance Pay, direct Google Translate in Twitter and TG conversations, and optimizes Telegram's overall layout and usability. Telegram accounts and chat histories, along with other crucial data, can be directly utilized in the Ime version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, chat histories in the IME version will automatically sync with the original Telegram version, facilitating easy switching. The Ime version essentially acts as an integrator, merging the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, with TON leaning towards the chain ecosystem. TON is a native public blockchain ecosystem developed on top of Telegram, serving as an inherited blockchain project from TG's original project team. It introduces more development possibilities and diversity to Telegram's native ecosystem growth. ● Core Logic: Within three years, the user base of the Ime version increased from 2 million to 10 million users, a 500% increase. The friendly relationship with Telegram's founding team enables seamless connection to Telegram's 700 million users. The latest multi-chain Token group red packet function uses Lime as the Gas fee, which will greatly benefit the project's operation and promotion if more convenient modes are optimized in the future. Ime's multi-chain integration feature can help project parties integrate into the Telegram ecosystem faster. Currently, LIME's FDV fluctuates between $5M and $10M, far below the valuation of many primary market projects. TON, as TG's native underlying public blockchain, ranks at the forefront in terms of operational level and market promotion. It can be directly used in the original version of TG, reducing the teaching cost. Although it doesn't support multi-chain, the wallet is a single-chain wallet in the form of a dialogue box. TON itself also has enough potential, and its FDV has surpassed $10 billion, indicating the market's expectations for Telegram. ● Keys to Launch: Ime Lime: Due to the presence of many hardcore tech personnel from Russia and Ukraine, the involvement of core operational PR is needed to enhance the project's self-marketing capability. Further optimization of the TG group members' ability to freely use the red packet function to send various TOKENs as rewards to group members. More optimization of TG functionalities to be utilized. Further support and policies from Russia towards blockchain applications. TON: A more lenient regulatory stance from the SEC towards the official Telegram TON. Collaboration and output of SocialFi Killer-level projects on the chain. An increase in GameFi entering through TG as a portal. ● Expected Valuation: Lime: Current MC FDV: $5.7M, Expected FDV: 3B-5B TON: Current MC FDV: $MUN:10B, Expected FDV: $60B 3.Conflux (CFX) BINANCE:CFXUSDT ● Basic Introduction: Conflux is a Layer 1 public blockchain supported by a team that includes a Turing Award winner and technical advisors from Tsinghua University's Yao Class, aimed at long-term development platforms for dApps, e-commerce, Web 3, and metaverse infrastructures. Its Tree-Graph consensus mechanism, which combines Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithms, is considered one of the most prominent purely domestic projects in my opinion. ● Core Logic: Conflux's unique Tree-Graph consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, driven by a technology-focused team, ensuring smoothness and convenience comparable to high-valuation blockchain projects like SOL and ETH. It aligns quickly with the mainstream development pace of Web3, waiting only for further opening and an increase in active users to unlock significant potential. Trendy applications are gradually making their way onto CFX. ● Keys to Launch: Further support and liberalization for blockchain public chain applications and the metaverse by mainland China.Further popularization of the public chain as a pilot test in China's Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions. More official cooperation and implementation with institutions like CITIC, Xiaohongshu, leading to the complete disappearance of traditional capital suppression. Gradual maturity of Conflux's own development and formal, successful support for BTC L2. ● Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV of CFX: Fluctuating around $0.9B, Expected FDV: $36B-$80B 4.Opulous (OPUL) KUCOIN:OPULUSDT ● Basic Introduction: A music RWA+DeFi project, where RWA has already achieved application cooperation with singers. Investors can participate in purchasing a portion of album rights with OPUL to earn subsequent album revenue shares from the artist. The new feature, Opulous OLOAN, creates a unique bridge between RWA and the music industry. By staking USDC in the pool, it provides funding for musicians and earns extra income on the staked USDC. OVAULT is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse music library. This library, curated by Opulous music experts, features popular and high-performing songs. Participating in OVAULT not only grants access to this music library but also rewards, offering a way to engage with the music industry and profit from staking. ● Core Logic: The company has a rich network of core music resources, with dittos being a music collaboration company of ED Sheeran, Overall, Opulous maintains a relatively leading position in market rhythm control, ranking as one of the more playful project parties on the Algorand and Arb chains. The pressure from private placements has been fully released. ● Key to Launch: The further popularization of music applications, as well as the actual revenue generated by high-profit artists. ● Expected Valuation: OPUL current MC FDV fluctuates around $50M-100M, with an expected FDV of $MUN:10B-$30B 5.Bilibili (BILI) NASDAQ:BILI ● Basic Introduction: A video creation and live streaming platform, a haven for secondary elements, and a platform concentrated with young purchasing power, which has invested in a bunch of enterprises leading to poor financial reports in recent years. Thus, the stock price has plummeted from its peak, so let's just drink to that. ● Core Logic: Currently, the only platform in China that seems capable of competing with YouTube. Gaming may catch up to the era of Web3 entry points. High user stickiness, but consumer rights are currently somewhat limited to anime series. ● Key to Launch: Encourage more original creative educational videos, as most Chinese videos now are summary-based, and original content is much less compared to YouTube. Activating this "wasteland" could be a significant source of revenue for Bili, as many are willing to pay for quality knowledge, but management needs to be stricter to prevent bad money from driving out good. Investments from the past two years are beginning to generate exit profits. Revise the business distribution; the current mix of live streaming and gaming services with the website is a bit odd. ● Expected Valuation: Bili's current valuation: $3.8B MC FDV, with an expected valuation in 5 years of $50-100B. 6.Avalanche / Polygon / Near / Algorand/ Solana CRYPTOCAP:AVAX BINANCE:NEARUSDT COINBASE:MATICUSD BINANCE:ALGOUSDT BINANCE:SOLUSDT ● Basic Introduction: Alt-L1 is a core foundational public blockchain infrastructure. AVAX and Polygon are more akin to Ethereum's sidechains, while Sol / Near / Algo have their own underlying architectures + EVM+BTC virtual machine compatibility or stand-alone projects to enhance compatibility with Ethereum. Each public blockchain has its own unique ecosystem. In 2024, it's more suitable for each chain to be discussed separately in a comprehensive series due to their foundational architectures, which cannot be fully covered here without extending into tens of thousands of words. ● Core Logic: The security of L1's underlying architecture has become increasingly refined. Although there have been debates regarding Sol's foundational security, it's undeniable that Solana has become the largest ecosystem outside of Ethereum, even leading in popularity at times. However, with the initiation of Ethereum's layering series, Ethereum's ecosystem could potentially introduce more gameplay. AVAX, SOL, and Matic are perfect examples of market rhythm mastery, with Near being average in convenience, and Algo being the least market-savvy but having the highest prestige in terms of technical strength and collaborations. The other L1s are advancing similarly, now engaging in mutual competition. After an uninteresting two years, the public chain ecosystem is finally starting to show some vitality again. ● Key to Launch: After global macroeconomic black swan events are thoroughly cleared, the new era's focus will shift further towards AI, blockchain, and informational fields, increasing the exploration desire for reservoirs and funds. LSD, Restaking, Rollup, and various new DeFi gameplay will further penetrate major ecosystems, sparking new value bubbles. ● Expected Valuation: Future MC FDV: AVAX: 150B SOL: 300B ALGO: 60B-150B (300B--- if the team optimizes and gets designated by US policies) NEAR: 50B-100B MATIC: 80B-100B (250B--- if designated by Indian policies) 7.Tiger Brokers (Tiger) NASDAQ:TIGR ● Basic Introduction: A youthful brokerage with excellent trading experience, superb data provision, and UI design, providing ample information on financial reports and data. ● Core Logic: Undervalued, with virtual licenses approved. The support for compliant tokens like USDC for deposit could significantly increase trading volume and financial income. ● Key to Launch: Further relaxation and support for compliant KYC by domestic policies. Overall recovery and accumulation in the financial markets. ● Expected Valuation: Current FDV: 0.58B, Expected FDV: 10-20 B 8.Planetswatch (Planets) ● Basic Introduction: An eco-friendly project monitoring air quality through air sensors, allowing for real-time air quality data transmission via different sensor nodes in exchange for token rewards. ● Core Logic: High early valuation and low circulation rate, with prices significantly dropping due to the bear market and inflation impacts, a common issue for early-stage projects with low circulation rates. ● Key to Launch: Further global emphasis on environmental infrastructure, with Eco projects becoming a focal point in blockchain discussions. ● Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV: 2M, Expected FDV: 20M-200M 9.ContextLogic (Wish) $NASDAQ:WISH NASDAQ:LOGC ● Basic Introduction: Wish is a U.S.-based e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Its parent company, ContextLogic Inc., is headquartered in San Francisco, USA, primarily selling inexpensive household items, clothing, jewelry, electronics, toys, etc. ● Core Logic: Overhyped by consortia like Goldman Sachs in 2020, leading to a steady fall to the verge of delisting. Prices are near low, with recent market actions and promotions starting to revive. ● Key to Launch: Further reliance on group buying, especially the expectation of cheap group purchases by the consumption downgrade population. Entry of new major institutions into the acquisition process. Revival in financial reports and business. ● Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV: 0.1B, Expected MC FDV: 2B-10B 10.Waves Enterprises (West) $KUCOIN:WESTUSDT GATEIO:WESTUSDT ● Basic Introduction: Waves Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructures. As a hybrid solution, it combines enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the advantages of public permissioned blockchain across a wide range of business use cases. Sidechains are used for building private or hybrid infrastructures, storing metadata on the mainnet. The platform is powered by Waves Enterprise System Token ( WEST ), the native utility token for all network operations. ● Core Logic: Enterprise-grade public and private hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises. ● Key to Launch: Further support for blockchain technology from Russia, with traditional oligarchs and consortiums responding to related policies. Further popularization Expected Valuation: Current MC FDV: 2-5M fluctuation, Expected MC FDV: 2B-5B (20-50B--- if designated by Russia) Summary: This article analyzes the long-term potential value of several projects. Some have survived through significant trials and tribulations, and others possess superior fundamentals and philosophies but lack market operation capabilities and are in need of a discerning eye. Therefore, while they have potential, it does not guarantee they will meet expectations, and they may also suffer unexpected setbacks. The global economy has not yet emerged from the mire; in fact, it can be likened to treading on thin ice where the superficial prosperity cannot mask the unresolved core flaws. Certain festering issues and malignancies have yet to be addressed, so even as the future for AI and blockchain seems bright, it's prudent for individuals and institutions to adhere to a set of personal principles. For emerging public chains like SEI, TIA, and Layer 2 solutions, as well as diverse projects like Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, Edenlayer, Zeta involving Restaking, LSD, and other novel mechanisms, the extended lock-up periods of this investment round make early valuations even more challenging to gauge. This tests the responsibility and habits of the project teams since the majority of tokens are still in their hands. If the foundation dumps early, new projects could experience significant setbacks. However, there's also the possibility of projects like TIA achieving "vintage" valuations, though such outcomes are difficult to predict swiftly. The development of the blockchain industry is expected to be relatively bright in the coming years. However, it's important to reiterate the caution stated at the beginning of this article: long-term valuations do not mean a continuous upward trend from current price points. The market could experience intense volatility, similar to a scenario where BTC suddenly drops to 1K and then rebounds to $40k, although such an event is highly unlikely. If one can maintain a healthy position in such scenarios, there should be no cause for concern. Remember not to engage in long-term commitments with high leverage. Try to avoid or minimize engagement with contracts unless for entertainment and if you possess sufficient self-discipline. Do Your Own Research (DYOR) remains the primary way to maintain a healthy investment strategy. Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment or financial advice but merely reflects the author's opinions and insights, hoping for mutual learning and progress.
by OuChiBoy
1
MSTU Long term retiring ideaThe MSTU ETF offers double exposition to the ticker IG:NASDAQ MSTR, now called Strategy, and this year many call a greater bull run on Crypto assets. I have done myself a mathematical model which gave me the conclusion similar to what Michael Saylor thinks: I think I'm going to retire on the MSTU ETF, considering it 0.35 of my Portfolio and adding into it. For the short term, consider buying on a strong support using an ATR (Average True Range) Indicator which tells you where to buy, and considering the support on a high historical trading activity with Market Profile terminology. Not bad for doing DCA at the swing lows formed. Not financial advice!
CBOE:MSTULong
by TheSnickers12
Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over New TariffsThe U.S. dollar traded weaker on Thursday, dropping 0.22% in the DXY index, despite the release of economic figures that slightly exceeded market expectations. This negative move becomes technically significant as it occurs near the 200-period moving average, a key level that was breached earlier in March, placing the greenback under greater short-term selling pressure. The key economic data released was the Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed an annualized growth rate of 2.4%, marginally above the expected 2.3%, though representing a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, which rose 4%, its fastest pace since Q1 2023, and higher government expenditures (3.1%), partially offsetting declines in fixed investment and exports. Despite the apparent economic optimism suggested by these figures, the underlying strength of the dollar remains questioned due to recent trade policy decisions by the Trump administration and the significant deterioration in consumer sentiment during Q1 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the announcement of new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts, effective from April 3. Trump labeled this date as the "Liberation Day" for the U.S. automotive industry, asserting the primary goal is to stimulate local production and correct historically unfair trade practices. However, substantial risks emerge from this policy, including potential disruptions to global supply chains, a significant increase in new vehicle prices (ranging from an additional $4,000 to $12,200 per unit), especially affecting electric vehicles highly dependent on imported components, and inflationary pressures that might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current pause on restrictive monetary policy. Additionally, the auto industry immediately reacted negatively, with shares of giants like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis declining, while Canada and the European Union strongly opposed the measure, considering potential retaliatory actions that could escalate global trade tensions. In this scenario, markets closely watch Friday’s release of the PCE inflation report and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index, indicators that could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's next moves. The Fed remains cautiously on the sidelines, evaluating the real impact of governmental trade policies on inflation and economic growth. Ultimately, although today the dollar exhibited technical and fundamental weakness, its future outlook continues to hinge significantly on domestic and international political and economic dynamics, promising continued high operational volatility in the near term. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
Valuation iMe Messenger: Reach 5-20% of Telegram's $30B ?Valuation Potential of iMe Messenger: Why It Has the Prospect to Reach 5-20% of Telegram's $30 Billion Valuation? Authors: SanTi Li, Naxida, Feng Yu, Li Feiyu Abstract: In the Web3 era, the functionality of messaging applications is no longer limited to information transmission. Many failures of Web3 social applications (SocialFi) stem from a lack of sustained user engagement and long-term foundation, or their core functionality merely copying existing platforms (such as borrowing from Twitter). Additionally, the integration of tokens into these platforms often lacks depth and practical utility. Social applications, once adopted by users, establish strong defensive moats, and further integrating Web3 elements such as multi-domain payments, multi-chain interaction, financial services, and decentralized applications can significantly enhance their intrinsic value. iMe Messenger (LIME), as an extension of Telegram's ecosystem, enhances and optimizes its functionality while maintaining a unique market position. This has attracted growing attention from users, investors, and institutional clients. By analyzing market trends, user demands, and the synergies between Telegram, its public blockchain TON, and iMe Messenger, this paper explores why iMe Messenger has the potential to reach 5-20% of Telegram's valuation and how it fits within the triad of TON, Telegram, and iMe to mutually enhance value. 1. Market Positioning and User Value of iMe Messenger 1.1 Compatibility with Telegram: Lowering User Migration and Learning Costs iMe Messenger ( GATEIO:LIMEUSDT LIME) is not only a standalone social application but also a Pro-version developed on top of Telegram, allowing seamless synchronization of chat history, contacts, and channels. This drastically reduces migration costs, enabling iMe to inherit Telegram's ecosystem rather than building an entirely new application from scratch. Essentially, every Telegram user can also be an iMe user, and all iMe users are inherently Telegram users. 1.2 Enhanced Features for Greater User Engagement and Experience Building upon Telegram's core, iMe offers additional features such as: ●Integrated Wallets: Supporting multi-chain payments and fund transfers among Telegram friends, including BSC, Solana BINANCE:SOLUSDT , ETH, and TON. ●Translation & Content Organization: Enabling translation for personal and group chats without requiring Telegram's Star VIP subscription. ●Payment and Exchange Integration: Supports Binance Pay and Uniswap's DEX functionalities. ●Improved Group Features: Introduces Crypto Box, similar to WeChat's red packet and gifting features. ●AI Assistant & Antivirus Protection: Enhances user experience with AI-driven features. ●Latest AI Integrations: Users can directly utilize AI models like Gemini and GPT for multi-format content creation and image generation. ●Enhanced Privacy: Strengthened encryption and privacy protection. ●Customizable UI: More personalized interface options than Telegram, appealing to specific user demographics. These enhancements make iMe a superior choice for certain use cases compared to Telegram's native experience. Feature Telegram iMe Messenger Core Messaging ✅ ✅ + Premium Antivirus Cross-Platform Sync ✅ ✅ AI Translation & Speech-to-Text ✅ (VIP only) ✅ (Free via Lime token) Multi-Chain Transfers ❌ ✅ (Supports Sol, BSC, ETH, etc.) AI BOT Integration ✅ ✅ (Advanced AI models) Functional Optimization ❌ ✅ (More user-friendly UI) Payment System ❌ ✅ (Binance Pay, CryptoBox) Staking Services ❌ (Requires third-party access) ✅ (Directly accessible in Wallet module) Telegram API Requirement ✅ (Native API) ❌ (Requires external API access) Independent App Download ✅ (App Store) ✅ (App Store) 2. Valuation Comparison: iMe vs. Telegram 2.1 Telegram's Valuation Logic Telegram is currently valued at approximately $30 billion, primarily due to: 1.A massive user base of 900 million to 1 billion with rapid growth. 2.A deep ecosystem including groups, channels, Bot economy, ad revenue, and potential Web3 applications. 3.TON blockchain integration, enhancing payment and application functionalities. 4.An expected IPO and its role in the broader blockchain and AI landscape. Telegram's valuation is based on user scale × monetization potential × technology moat × IPO expectations, with some influence from its blockchain interactions with TON. 2.2 iMe's Growth Potential Currently, iMe's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is around $20 million, with 18 million users. While this is significantly lower than Telegram's 900+ million users, its interoperability with Telegram provides substantial user growth potential. Considering Web3 applications with over 10 million real registered users are rare, iMe's niche appeal could further bolster its valuation. With a 600% growth over 3.5 years, iMe has promising expansion potential. Factors contributing to iMe’s ability to achieve 5-20% of Telegram’s valuation: 1.User Growth: If iMe captures 5-10% of Telegram's user base (45M-90M users), its market valuation would rise accordingly. 2.Monetization Potential: Ad revenue, VIP subscriptions, Binance Pay integration, and staking services expand its financial ecosystem. 3.Token Utility & Burning Mechanism: Increased usage of Lime token for payments and transactions enhances its long-term value. 4.Multi-Chain Support: Since Telegram prioritizes TON, other blockchain tokens need a third-party solution—iMe fills this gap. 5.TON Ecosystem Integration: iMe strengthens its value by serving as a gateway for blockchain applications within Telegram’s ecosystem. 2.3 Other Reasons for the Valuation Growth Potential of iMe Messenger There are many projects in the market with overestimated and inflated values, but it is indeed difficult to find undervalued Web3 projects. The core reasons for this mostly relate to the operational strategies of project teams over a period of time, project management styles, and the experiences and habits of personnel. There are even intricate connections with partner institutions, investors, and other stakeholders. Apart from the valuation growth potential points compared in sections 2.1 and 2.2, the hidden value and potential of the iMe project are also related to the following factors: 1.iMe’s operational model primarily exists within its internal ecosystem and lacks sufficient collaboration with media, rating agencies, and third-party content platforms. This has resulted in valuable updates and the five advantages we mentioned earlier being largely unknown to many investors and enthusiasts. 2.Limited collaboration with KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) in value-driven or hype-driven streams. In fact, this project was discovered as early as the end of 2021, but we waited to see if others would also identify its value and write about it. However, we found that very few people had actually created content on it. Later, after communicating with the project team, we discovered that they indeed lacked deep collaboration with content institutions and KOLs. Unlike 2018, when PR agencies were of relatively high quality—such as Block72 and Winkrypto, which had at least dozens of team members providing comprehensive support—by 2025, many so-called PR agencies consisted of just one or two individuals. This has significantly increased the difficulty for project teams in making the right choices and the probability of encountering pitfalls. This situation is as challenging as distinguishing between Dogecoin in 2020 and the tens of thousands of meme tokens emerging daily today. 3.Since 2024, Lime has only gradually been listed on new exchanges. Previously, it was primarily listed on Gate, which is known for its extensive range of trading pairs but lacks significant independent AMA (Ask Me Anything) sessions or media promotion through research reports. From 2023 onwards, many major exchanges adopted a strategy of listing only entirely new projects. This strategy undoubtedly impacted a group of high-quality projects that were listed around 2021 and had successfully endured the bear market. With the recent wave of meme token promotion and the market adjustments of 2024-2025, exchange operators and traders have begun to recognize the underlying issues in purely new projects and meme-based projects. 4.The team has a strong technical mindset, focusing on R&D while lacking market operation experience. This issue is not unique to iMe’s team. Even a project as robust as Algorand, which had an MIT-backed “king bomb” team, later faced operational chaos due to blind hiring of Web2 product managers who lacked experience and made misguided decisions. 5.Insufficient utilization of traffic and promotional platforms. During due diligence, we found that the iMe team produces high-quality animations and content. However, these materials are often only published within their own community and Twitter. Many high-quality users are not necessarily effective disseminators—just as in real life, many exceptionally talented individuals are not good at expressing themselves or spreading information. Therefore, leveraging high-quality third-party platforms and engaging in interactive campaigns (such as writing contests) is also key to furthering brand building. In summary, the fundamental prerequisite for a project to have sufficient growth potential is that its core technology is strong and its sector and market trends are favorable. However, a lack of brand promotion and groundwork is one of the primary reasons why high-quality content goes undiscovered. This issue can be mitigated with the support of large institutions, major exchanges, or influential figures. This is also one of the main reasons why undervalued projects have room for valuation growth. 3. The Impact of the BINANCE:TONUSDT TON Ecosystem on IME’s Valuation 3.1 Growth Potential of the TON Ecosystem TONUSDT TON, as the decentralized blockchain platform officially supported by Telegram, encompasses multiple application scenarios, including DeFi and GameFi. Telegram is actively promoting the TON ecosystem. 1.TON’s growth potential: TON currently has a market valuation exceeding $10 billion, and with its integration into the Telegram ecosystem, its value could potentially double in the future. 2.Potential of TON payments: IME has a built-in TON wallet, gradually making it one of the most important payment and transaction gateways within the TON ecosystem. This undeniably enhances IME’s long-term product value. Although the Lime token has not yet been launched on the TON chain, this development is likely imminent. 3.Binding effect between TON and Telegram: TON is poised to become the Web3 core of Telegram’s economic system. As a Telegram-compatible all-in-one development application, IME is naturally positioned to benefit from this ecosystem’s growth. 3.2 Direct Impact of TON on IME’s Valuation The expansion of the TON ecosystem means that IME is no longer just a messaging app—it is becoming a Web3 gateway. If TON’s overall valuation grows to $20 billion or beyond, then iMe, as an important Web3 entry point, will also see an increase in its valuation. TON’s decentralized payment services and smart contract capabilities, combined with iMe’s built-in multi-chain wallet, provide strong support for Telegram-based iMe users. This transforms iMe from a mere communication tool into a cross-chain financial and social platform. (This also applies to native iMe users—i.e., institutional users who directly use the iMe software without relying on the Telegram client—bringing new users to Telegram’s ecosystem and creating potential TON adopters.) Risks and Challenges Of course, the development of iMe Messenger is not without risks. As a platform based on decentralization and blockchain technology, it faces multiple challenges similar to those of Telegram, including technical security, user privacy protection, and regulatory policies. There is also the systemic risk of Telegram suddenly ceasing API development (although such a move would be self-sabotaging for Telegram itself). Additionally, the Web3 market is highly competitive, with new products continuously emerging, exerting competitive pressure on iMe. How to ensure user privacy and security while continuously optimizing product features and enhancing user experience will be key to iMe Messenger’s future development. 4. Comprehensive Summary: Factors Affecting iMe’s Valuation Based on the above analysis, iMe’s development trajectory and speed suggest that it has the potential to reach 5-10% of Telegram’s user base. The expansion and growth of iMe also contribute to the overall expansion and development of Telegram. At the same time, by leveraging the mutual benefits of the Telegram and TON ecosystems, iMe can create additional value. This enables iMe to benefit from Telegram’s strong user retention moat while positioning itself as a potential Web3 or secondary version of Telegram. From the perspectives of user base, business model, TON enablement, integrated wallet, and Lime token functionalities, IME has the potential to achieve a valuation of 5%-20% of Telegram’s estimated value, equating to a valuation of over $1.5 billion. As the Telegram ecosystem matures and the TON network further develops, iMe’s market value may continue to grow, with potential for further valuation increases. Overall, iMe LIMEUSDT Lime is not merely a secondary development software utilizing Telegram’s API. Instead, it is a Web3 social communication and payment tool with significantly stronger utility. Its valuation model is closer to a combination of Wallet + Telegram + TON + AI, making it more akin to a Web3 version of WeChat. It holds the potential to become a fully realized Web3 social application. Hopefully, it will ultimately succeed alongside Telegram. Next, we will explore the long-term value of several public blockchain networks. May the force be with you~ Friendly Reminder: This article is created for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Web3 space is simultaneously full of opportunities and risks. We encourage readers to conduct their own research (DYOR) on every project or topic.
by OuChiBoy
Why Going Long on SoFi Stock SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is at a pivotal moment, presenting a strong long opportunity as it enters the 5th wave of an Elliott Wave cycle. This final leg typically brings explosive upside momentum, signaling a potential breakout. While a brief dip below $10 is possible, this could act as a springboard for a powerful rally toward $20 and beyond. The stock's bullish structure, combined with SoFi's growing financial services business, makes it an attractive bet for long-term investors. With momentum building, now may be the perfect time to go long on SoFi before the next surge begins. 🚨 This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence (DD) before making any investment decisions. 🚨
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by SabahEquityResearch
1
Gold shocks converge, trading strategy fully analyzedTechnical analysis of gold: Gold has slightly risen and fallen during the day, and the overall trend remains in a volatile trend. Gold is currently maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations on the daily trend, but the short-term moving average has gradually diverged downward, and there are signs of weakening in the short term on the daily line. The 4-hour level trend is temporarily maintained in a volatile state, and the price is temporarily compressed between 3010-3030. The short-term moving average continues to maintain a state close to adhesion and flattening, tending to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the continued downward trend after a small break in the 4-hour level trend. In the small-level cycle trend, after touching the previous support band, there are signs of stabilization again. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment. Gold is about to explode in a big market. The obvious box-shaped oscillation triangle is converging, that is, it has become narrower, and the oscillation has lasted too long. If it can break through 3038 with consecutive positive lines, then today will basically continue a wave of pull-ups, so there is a high probability that the 4-hour middle track or the daily 5-day moving average will break. On the contrary, if the psychological barrier of 3000 is lost, the market may fall back to the support zone of 2971-2997 for correction. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold suggests that callbacks should be the main focus, and rebound shorts should be supplemented. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3030-3036, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3010-3012. Friends, you must keep up with the rhythm. Gold operation strategy: short gold rebound near 3028-3035, and go long on the pullback of 3015-3010.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel