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Fundamental Analysis

06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +731.25 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: meh ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/3 success** — 9:38 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3 — 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 11:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? today was another interesting day, i am noticing that when market structure changes 2x in the same direction, it is usally pretty effective and scammy at the same time News *NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA SHARES HIT A NEW HIGH TO RECLAIM WORLD'S LARGEST STOCK TITLE - market is being carried by the momentum of mag 7 What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6175 = Bullish, Under 6155= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
Microvast setting new 3-year highsMicrovast beat earnings in May of this year and reported positive earnings for the first time, shocking investors and sending the stock soaring above its previous resistance highlighted by the yellow trendline. As you can see it has been forming bullish consolidation above the trendline which now is seeming to act as support. There is also hidden bullish divergence on the RSI which I've highlighted. Great time to get into a really cheap stock that has much more upside to go should they continue to report positive earnings.
NASDAQ:MVSTLong
by bradc1984
Tencent Holdings – Potential Wave Count and ForecastAs current price action unfolds, a Wave 5 (gray) forming as an ending diagonal appears to be the most likely scenario. However, the micro count remains open to interpretation and may differ slightly. Continued observation should eventually provide clarity and confirmation at the lower degrees.This ending diagonal seems to be approaching completion. A sudden reversal could suggest that Wave 4 (pink) within the diagonal is not yet finished, as the recent downward move resembles a single impulse rather than a full ABC correction. That said, this alternative is less probable given that, by the rules of a contracting ending diagonal, Wave 4 (pink) should be shorter than Wave 2 (pink). Structurally, the current labeling still fits well with Wave 4 (pink) already being completed.For now, the focus should shift to the upside, watching for a developing ABC structure within Wave 5 (pink), which would complete both the ending diagonal and the larger-degree Wave 5 (gray). Upon completion, we should anticipate a significant correction. Based on current wave dynamics, this gray Wave 5 is likely to end in a truncation or produce only a marginal new all-time high. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. All trading involves risk, and you should perform your own due diligence before making any trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses that may arise from reliance on this content. Always trade at your own risk.
HKEX:700Long
by UnbieX
GOLD THE united state interest rate stands at 4.25%-4.5% the US10Y open the day at 4.293% and closes 4.26% a significant drop from may high of 4.62% the dollar index is heading to 96$ after open 97.611$ to close 97.313$. Final GDP q/q Actual: -0.5% Forecast: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated. 2. Unemployment Claims Initial Claims: 236,000 Forecast: 244,000 Previous: 245,000 Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges. 3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Actual: +0.5% Forecast: +0.1% Previous: +0.2% Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment. 4. Durable Goods Orders m/m Actual: +16.4% Forecast: +8.6% Previous: -6.3% Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods. 5. Final GDP Price Index q/q Actual: 3.7% This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy. Summary of Market Implications: The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy. The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead. Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive. Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures the interest rate remains 4.24%-4.5% ,the bond market remain weak on fiscal policy challenges and pending rate outlook. the 10 year bond yield is trading around 4.291% -4.26% and edge lower from fundamental outlook. gold on ascending trendline connecting April till June and found support at 3312-3314. buyers during newyork session will build momentum on technical to bridge 3350 supply . break below 3311-3314 will heading to my demand floor . #gold .
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
85% of Traders Are Wrong on GBPCAD - I'm Going Short!📊 COT Analysis GBP: Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment. Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure. → Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading. CAD: Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment. Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift. → CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD. 📈 Seasonality – June/July GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant. CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages). → Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition. 🧠 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal. → Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside. → Confirms short bias. 📉 Price Action & RSI Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area). Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming. Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move). → Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
SOL/USD🔹 Trend direction Current short-term trend: down Price below key moving averages: SMA50 (green) ≈ 154.84 SMA200 (blue) ≈ 168.79 Price ≈ 142.49 – below both, confirming weakness. 🔹 Supports and resistances (key levels) ✅ Supports: 142.00–143.50 – current level where price is struggling (multiple price reactions). 131.00 – strong support, last low (June 18). 119.00 / 116.00 / 113.00 – next supports from previous consolidations. 95.61 – deep support if market breaks down. ❌ Resistances: 148.00–150.00 – local resistance, coinciding with the red SMA (short-term resistance). 154.84 – resistance (SMA50). 162.00 – resistance (SMA200). 183.00 – main resistance from the May peak. 218.55 – very strong resistance from March. 🔹 Technical indicators 📉 MACD: MACD line < signal, negative histogram → bearish signal. No signs of bullish strength. 📉 RSI: RSI ≈ 41.31 – close to the oversold zone, but not there yet (below 30). RSI trend also downward. 🔹 Formations and trend lines Broken support line after the April-May bullish structure (white trend line). The previous bearish trend line (yellow) was broken in April, but the momentum did not hold. A lower high and lower low may be forming now – a classic bearish structure. 🔹 Potential scenarios 🔻 Bearish: Breakout of 142 → test of 131 → possible drop to 119/116. Staying below SMA50 and MACD still negative = high chance of continuing declines. 🔼 Bullish: Recovery of 148–150 needed → only then a chance to test 154 and SMA50. RSI close to oversold = possible local technical bounce, but not reversing the trend. 📌 Conclusions / Summary General trend: Bearish (down). Sentiment: Negative, no confirmed signals of strength. If level 142 breaks - next test will be at 131. A strong breakout above 150-154 is needed to talk about a change in structure.
by cryptodailyuk
1
EUR/USD Biases (Long, Short, and Today’s View)EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones This will be a concise market analysis essay (around 600–700 words) suitable for a financial audience, such as forex traders or analysts. Let me begin: EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones The EUR/USD pair, one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, has exhibited strong bullish momentum in recent sessions. As of June 26, 2025, the euro’s ascent against the dollar has brought it to a critical juncture, testing significant technical and psychological resistance levels. Traders are now weighing the potential for continued upside against growing signals of exhaustion and looming fundamental catalysts. Bullish Outlook: A Technically Supported Advance From a technical perspective, the bullish case for EUR/USD remains compelling. The pair is entrenched in a sustained uptrend, marked by successive breakouts above prior resistance levels and validated by daily and weekly closes above 1.1600. The current price action is converging on a crucial supply zone located between 1.1700 and 1.1900—an area historically known for triggering reversals but also pivotal in confirming trend continuation if broken convincingly. Technical indicators further bolster the bullish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while approaching overbought territory, is still supportive of higher prices. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a widening bullish histogram, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms trend strength. Near-term resistance lies between 1.1680 and 1.1730, with potential for an extension to 1.1800 should the pair breach this upper band. On the fundamental front, improved German Ifo business sentiment data has injected optimism into the eurozone outlook. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-on sentiment in global markets have undercut the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Speculation over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts further dampens dollar strength, creating tailwinds for EUR/USD. Bearish Considerations: Resistance and Reversal Risks Despite the encouraging trend, caution is warranted. The area between 1.1700 and 1.1900 represents a major weekly order block (OB) resistance—territory where several past rallies have lost steam. Oscillators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and RSI are showing signs of overextension, and the market is now vigilant for reversal patterns or signs of exhaustion. Fundamentally, while the recent Ifo data is encouraging, it remains below the key threshold of 100, reflecting lingering skepticism about the eurozone's full recovery. Moreover, upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly GDP figures and jobless claims, could act as potential catalysts for a dollar rebound. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials could also tilt sentiment, especially if it dampens expectations of rate cuts. If EUR/USD fails to hold above the 1.1700–1.1730 resistance zone, a corrective move toward 1.1530–1.1500 becomes plausible. Deeper pullbacks could extend toward 1.1470 and 1.1390, especially if risk sentiment reverses or economic data surprises in favor of the dollar. Today’s View: Bullish with a Note of Caution For today, June 26, the prevailing bias remains bullish, yet increasingly cautious. The pair is testing the lower end of the 1.1700 OB zone. A decisive break and hold above this level would likely unleash further upside toward 1.1730 and 1.1800. However, overbought conditions and proximity to a known resistance zone suggest that traders should remain alert to potential rejection. Intraday strategies favor buying on dips above 1.1600–1.1635, with stops placed just below 1.1600 and targets set at 1.1700–1.1730. Conversely, short positions should only be considered if there is a clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1730 area, with downside targets at 1.1530–1.1500 and stops above 1.1800. Conclusion The EUR/USD is currently at a pivotal inflection point. While the bullish trend is intact and supported by both technical and fundamental factors, the proximity to a major resistance zone introduces a layer of complexity. Traders must remain agile—ready to ride a breakout higher if confirmed, but equally prepared to pivot if the pair falters and signals a reversal. In markets like these, timing and confirmation are everything.
by HUGOF
Scalp Safe Entry Zone ARQQ AgainScalp Short Term 15M Chart. Green Zone is Buy. Take Profit is sell. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NASDAQ:ARQQ
by Faisalzor
6/26/25 - $nke - Good luck to the longs...6/26/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NKE Good luck to the longs... - keeping it small - but let's be real - nke still trades dayum near 30x earnings and earnings aren't growing. - discretionary is impossible to buy - tariff tylk back, whaddidu think? - they miss miss miss... - comps not reporting good results ex. NYSE:ONON (special brand) - so could this one be different? obviously. - but ATM P's as a lil juice on the short side to some of my longs looks like a nice setup. - so i'm only deploying 5 bps on this for next weeklies. it's one of those situations where if stock rips... oh well, sized appropriately. i'd say rip is 30-40% chance and likely 5-10% most and possibly a retrace - if dips... it will be deep... and multi-day into a quarter end which could see some rebalancing flows as funds prepare for the 3Q size ups good luck to bill ackman. smart guy. but i don't get his love of nike. better to buy NYSE:DECK , and i don't even own that one rn... V
NYSE:NKEShort
by VROCKSTAR
12
Lower highs / lower lows BTC....what will happen next?History doesn't repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. Let's look at the BTC chart: lower highs, lower lows from double top. What have we seen in the past -> significant drops. Personally, I'm all for innovation and technology, but make no mistake that institutions are not blindly buying at the top and BTC is veering away from it's core principles after the financial crisis (there's still a middle man!). With this level of volatility and automated trading, there is bound to be a major pull back and it's starting to crack. Economic numbers are not horrible, but they are "lagging." Unemployment is not great with more layoffs being announced every day, interest rates are still high, unsecured debt is ultra high, and affordability is at 30-40 year low. Don't let the champagne effect of S&P fool you, things are NOT rosy! Always do your own due diligence and all the best!
Short
by antonini2002
Amd - This is just the beginning!Amd - NASDAQ:AMD - perfectly plays out: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Despite the harsh drop of about -65% which we have been witnessing starting back in 2024, Amd remains bullish. Just three months ago, Amd retested a textbook confluence of support. We saw bullish confirmation, the bottom is in and Amd will rally significantly from here. Levels to watch: $200, $300 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by basictradingtv
7