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Will FedEx See a Big Swing Following Next Week’s Earnings?Shares of FedEx NYSE:FDX have often swung quite violently following release of the delivery-service giant's quarterly earnings. What does FDX’s chart and fundamental analysis say might happen after the firm reports results next Tuesday (June 24)? Let’s check: A History of Big Swings Looking at just FedEx’s past five quarterly reports, its stock did the following in next trading day: -- March 23, 2024: Rose 7.4%. -- June 26, 2024: Gained 15.5%. -- Sept. 20, 2024: Surrendered 15.5%. -- Dec. 20, 2024: Closed essentially flat at -0.05%. -- March 21, 2025: Gave up 6.5%. Oh, and that one not-so-violent-looking result -- the 0.05% loss on Dec. 20 December -- actually came during an extremely volatile session for the stock. FedEx shares had been up as much as 7% that day, but managed to give that all back by the close. And as I write this column, the options market is pricing in FedEx seeing a 6%-8% move by next Friday's weekly expiration following next week’s earnings release. FedEx’s Fundamental Analysis Analysts’ consensus estimate for next week’s earnings called at last check for the company to report $5.91 in adjusted earnings per share on $21.8 billion of revenue. That would represent a 9.2% gain year over year for adjusted EPS, but about a 1%-2% contraction in revenues. But interestingly, 19 of the 20 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover FDX have lowered their earnings projections since the quarter began. It’s also worth noting that FedEx raised its quarterly dividend on June 9 ahead of the upcoming earnings. I can’t say whether that means management is bracing for ugly results, but it does put that thought into my head. FedEx’s Technical Analysis Now let’s look at FDX’s chart going back to April 2024: Readers will see that FedEx sold off rather sharply coming out of a so-called “double-top” pattern of bearish reversal that stretched from March 2024 to about March 2025 (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” in the chart above). What happened at that point is that the stock kept putting in lower highs. And once we got to April, the stock started putting in higher lows as well. In fact, FDX has developed what’s known as a “pennant formation” over the past 10 weeks or so, as denoted by the two purple diagonal lines at the chart’s right. What typically happens when these pennants close is that the underlying security will move violently one way or the other (although you can’t necessarily predict which way). In this case, FedEx’s pennant happens to be closing just as the company is about to release earnings -- and we know what’s happened in the past when FDX reports (violent swings). Add it all up and it suggests that many traders might employ strategies here that focus on volatility (such as straddles or strangles) instead of a directional play involving FedEx stock or options. Looking at the rest of FedEx’s chart, we see that the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at top) is neutral to better-than-neutral. FDX’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indication (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at bottom) is also about as non-committal as we usually see. The histogram of the stock’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars) is close to zero-bound. So are both the 12-day EMA (black line) and 26-day EMA (gold line). That could mean traders either expect no real reaction to next week’s earnings -- or are expecting an oversized reaction, but have no idea as to its direction. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in FDX at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. 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NYSE:FDX
by moomoo
1
Bitcoin Update: Key Levels, Geopolitics & Cautious Trading Ahead 📈💥 Bitcoin Update: Key Levels, Geopolitics & Cautious Trading Ahead 💭🌍 Hey Traders, Many of you asked for a fresh Bitcoin update — so here we go. 🚀 Last time, we caught that breakout, but it turned out to be a fakeout. Since then, the situation has become more complex. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, combined with uncertainty in the Middle East, are weighing heavily on sentiment. 🕊️💣 On the macro side, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged for now — no cuts yet. Building permits data has disappointed again, but inflation is cooling slightly. For now, the big market mover is clearly geopolitics. 👉 Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Support: $102,400 – $102,700 — If Bitcoin dips here, watch for a bounce. ✅ Resistance: $106,000 — Major resistance. Next Resistance: $108,350 Ultimate target: $113,000–$115,000, IF momentum returns. So how am I approaching it? 📌 Long above $106K → first stop $108K → target $113K–$115K. 📌 Short below $106K → watch support zones carefully. 📌 If we lose $102K, next big supports are $97,700, $89,000 — and even $79,000 if things worsen. 🚫 Big Picture: We’re still stuck in a broad sideways range — roughly $100,000–$110,000 — until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs. Without a Fed pivot or de-escalation in the Middle East, momentum may stay muted. 🙏 My Advice: Be cautious. Size your positions wisely. Respect levels. And above all, stay safe — mentally and emotionally — in these uncertain times. I’ll keep you updated step-by-step. Trade smart, stay kind. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FX_Professor
6
Micron Technology (MU) – Powering the AI Memory SupercycleCompany Overview: Micron NASDAQ:MU is a crucial player in the AI infrastructure stack, providing advanced DRAM, NAND, and NOR flash memory solutions that fuel everything from data centers to mobile edge devices. Key Catalysts: AI-Driven Memory Demand ⚙️ High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) adopted in AI accelerators from Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell. Positions Micron at the core of the AI supply chain, reducing exposure to chip cycle volatility. Data Center Surge 📈 Data center DRAM revenue tripled YoY in Q2 2025, driven by hyperscaler AI infrastructure upgrades. Strengthens revenue diversification and margin profile. Technology Leadership 🔬 Launch of 1-gamma DRAM node and LPDDR5X samples enhances mobile, cloud, and auto capabilities. Keeps Micron on the cutting edge of memory innovation. Investment Outlook: Bullish Case: We remain bullish on MU above $95.00–$97.00. Upside Target: $155.00–$160.00, supported by AI compute growth, hyperscale momentum, and next-gen product launches. 💡 Micron is not just riding the AI wave—it’s building its memory core. #Micron #MU #Semiconductors #AI #HBM #DataCenter #DRAM #NAND #Nvidia #AMD #Hyperscalers #TechLeadership
NASDAQ:MULong
by Richtv_official
Today, the Federal Reserve is the key to breaking the deadlock! 📌 Core driving events Yesterday, as the market believed that the possibility of direct U.S. involvement in the conflict had increased, tensions intensified again, and the market was once worried about possible attacks during the Asian session. Although it did not happen in the end, it is said that the next 24 to 48 hours will be a critical period. This wave of tension triggered widespread "risk aversion" operations in the market, but interestingly, gold did not react strongly. The market remained cautious before the Fed's interest rate decision was released, and the slight increase in risk appetite in the stock market also put pressure on gold prices. 📊Comment analysis At present, the technical side of gold has been showing a bearish trend, but as of now, the market has not fallen below yesterday's closing low of 3364, and the upper side has been under pressure from the resistance of 3405. Long and short positions are wandering in this range, and the breakthrough market will either break through at the end of the day, and the current trend uses sideways trading to exchange time and space, and has not fallen below the support below, so there is a high probability that it will go up. In the current tense market, it is more necessary to open a position near the high and low points to make a better game. At the same time, from historical experience, the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis on gold has three stages and has entered the second stage. The uncertainty of the global economy, the intensification of trade frictions and the rise in inflation expectations may provide structural support for gold. Therefore, if it does not break near 3364 today, it will be bullish first! 💰Strategy Package Gold: More near 3368-70, defend the 3364 line, and look up to the 3397-3405 line. If it breaks 3405 upward, it will further impact 3422 and even the previous high, but if it breaks below 3364, the long single position will be adjusted out and it will no longer be bullish for the time being! ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
WTI drops as Trump keeps markets guessing Despite a huge draw in US crude inventories - not that this was going to move the market given the focus being firmly fixated on the Middle East situation - oil prices fell as Trump kept markets guessing about US military involvement in Iran. The US president said: "I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do." The US president also revealed that he told Israel PM Netanyahu to keep going, but has not given an indication that the US will provide more help. Meanwhile, Iran has issued an evacuation warning for residents of Haifa, Israel. This suggests that the conflict is far from over. But for now at least, the US is not getting involved, if one can believe Trump. Anyway, WTI is now back at short-term support here, around the $72 handle. If it goes back above $73.00 again then we may see momentum build up again to the upside, especially if the war between Iran and Israel escalates. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Fed expected to remain on hold and ‘likely’ a ‘Nothing Burger’It is widely regarded as a ‘sealed deal’ that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain the current target rate at 4.25% - 4.50% today, marking a fourth consecutive meeting on hold. This is likely to displease US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts, recently referring to the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as ‘stupid’. Despite Trump’s approach, I do not see a path where the central bank needs to cut rates today. While I would agree that the US economy is softening, it is not sufficient to ring alarm bells at the Fed. May’s inflation data were soft, suggesting stickiness and limited impact from tariffs, and domestic demand remains stable. Meanwhile, while the job market has demonstrated signs of weakening, the US remains at full employment. Couple this with vague trade policy and the recent escalation between Israel and Iran – with US involvement a possibility at this point – the Fed are unlikely to move on rates until later on in the year. Markets are pricing in around two rate cuts this year (matching March’s Summary of Economic Projections ), targeting either the September or October meeting for the first 25-basis-point (bp) rate reduction. Were the Fed to throw a curveball and surprise markets by cutting rates by 25 bps today, it would trigger a sizable downside move in the US dollar (USD) and underpin a bid across the US equity market. With that said, with a rate cut already baked in, the market’s focus will shift to the Fed’s rate statement, the press conference, and the updated SEP. Importantly, the fresh projections are the first out of the Fed since Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in early April. Uncertain times Uncertainty, although a somewhat overworked term at present, remains pertinent in today’s macroeconomic backdrop. Consequently, the Fed’s job of updating the dot plot (and the economic projections) is challenging. Like the market, Fed officials will struggle to gauge what the near-term future holds. I would not be surprised to see Powell echo a similar sentiment to the one expressed at the March meeting. Nevertheless, it should not raise too many eyebrows to see the Fed adopt a more hawkish tilt in its updated projections, with a slight upward (downward) revision to inflation (GDP [Gross Domestic Product). However, a marked change in direction in terms of lowering rates in the future from the Fed today is certainly something investors will be watching for, and could lead to increased volatility across major asset classes. If we see a dovish pivot, I will closely watch Spot Gold (XAU/USD), which has been hovering around all-time highs of US$3,500 for some time now. Spot Gold trading at demand A dovish scenario today could push the yellow metal towards the noted all-time high. As you can see from the chart below, daily flow has buyers and sellers squaring off within demand at US$3,343-US$3,392, which may provide enough of a floor to press higher today. In the event of a break south, the first port of call in terms of support would be at US$3,280, followed by another layer at US$3,208. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
FPMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by FPMarkets
6/18/25 - $sym - The warning signs are everywhere6/18/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SYM The warning signs are everywhere - what will powell do? who tf cares. buy bitcoin and chill. - but the warning signs are everywhere in regard to how much money is floating around in this tape that needs to have a coming to reality check moment - i have written about so many of these names - but here's a fun one that duped me back in the day b/c 80% of shares are these super weird "insider" BS voting reach arounds - $20 billion dollars - here's your failed robotics company - have fun. play dumb games, win dumb prizes. - it's another short i've started to add. - send it higher. not my first rodeo wrangling the donuts. V
NASDAQ:SYMShort
by VROCKSTAR
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000. Interpretation of the Data: Current Level: Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient. Labor Market Momentum: The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months. Seasonal and Technical Factors: Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments. Impact on Markets and Fed Policy: The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply. This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures. The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further. #GOLD
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
$UBER: Why $UBER Is a Robotaxi WinnerUber is on the verge of a major transformation, with robotaxis set to become a game-changing profit engine. Technical charts indicate we can enter a long position today with low risk, while aiming for a long term rally resumption from here. Monthly and quarterly timeframe Time@Mode trends are bullish, suggesting price can reach heights between $111, $176 and $265 per share long term. Here’s why the future looks bright for Uber investors from a fundamental perspective: The global robotaxi market is projected to surge from $0.4B in 2023 to $45.7B by 2030, with Uber aggressively expanding its autonomous fleet in the U.S. and Europe through partnerships. Uber’s approach is to integrate autonomous vehicles from partners (Waymo, May Mobility, Momenta, Avride, Volkswagen) into its platform, avoiding the massive costs and risks of building its own AVs. Autonomous vehicles will slash Uber’s largest expense -driver payments- unlocking higher margins and scalability. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi calls AVs Uber’s “greatest future opportunity” for profit expansion. Robotaxi pilots are already live in cities like Austin, with plans to expand to Atlanta, Dallas, and Europe by 2026. The average Waymo vehicle on Uber is busier than 99% of human drivers, showing strong demand and efficiency. Uber’s core business is robust: Q1 2025 gross bookings up 14% to $42.8B, net income of $1.8B, and adjusted EBITDA up 35% to $1.9B. This profitability funds AV investments without sacrificing financial health. Uber is uniquely positioned to lead the robotaxi revolution, leveraging its platform, partnerships, and financial strength. As AVs scale, expect a step-change in profitability and long-term shareholder value. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:UBERLong
by IvanLabrie
Bitcoin - The Elevated Cycle and the Silence Before Powell.⊢ ⟁ BTC/USD – Bitstamp – (CHART: 1M) – (June 18, 2025). ⟐ Analysis Price: $104,044.00 ⊢ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1M): ▦ EMA90 – ($39,909.00): ∴ Rising steadily, serving as long-cycle structural support since 2020; ∴ Price remains well above this average, with no signs of downward pressure; ∴ The positive slope confirms ongoing bullish macro structure. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA90 holds the foundational base of the long-term uptrend with ample buffer. ⊢ ▦ SMA50 – ($48,924.00): ∴ Key axis of mid-to-long-term structure, validated by multiple touches during 2022–2023; ∴ Current price distance suggests technical room for retracement; ∴ Still rising with no sign of flattening or decay. ✴️ Conclusion: SMA50 confirms trend integrity, though overextension calls for caution. ⊢ ▦ Ichimoku (Kumo & Lines) – (85,434 | 68,378 | 104,044 | 76,906 | 63,740): ∴ Price remains well above the Kumo cloud – full bullish confirmation; ∴ Tenkan and Kijun are aligned in bullish configuration, widely spread; ∴ Future cloud projects bullish momentum continuation. ✴️ Conclusion: Complete Ichimoku structure signals dominant cycle strength. ⊢ ▦ MACD (12,26,9) – (2,344 | 16,426 | 14,083): ∴ MACD line remains above the signal, maintaining a monthly buy signal; ∴ Histogram shows mild expansion, but slower than previous bull cycles; ∴ Momentum is positive but decelerating. ✴️ Conclusion: Momentum remains intact, but peak cycle force may have passed. ⊢ ▦ RSI (14) – (68.82 | MA: 67.35): ∴ RSI approaching overbought threshold, hovering near 70; ∴ Momentum is firm but shows resistance to further extension; ∴ Historical comparison to 2020 suggests possible ignition or exhaustion point. ✴️ Conclusion: RSI signals potential tension zone - breakout or reversal ahead. ⊢ ▦ VPT (14,8) – (100): ∴ Volume Price Trend has plateaued at its max threshold; ∴ Lack of new highs despite price advance suggests fading directional volume; ∴ Often a signal of accumulation slowdown or redistribution. ✴️ Conclusion: Buyer strength may be waning beneath the surface. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle: ∴ Market structure remains bullish across all core indicators; ∴ Overextension from key moving averages and flattening momentum call for tactical caution; ∴ Any macroeconomic pressure could trigger a local top, without compromising the broader trend. ⊢ ∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Realized Price & LTH – ($47,000): ∴ Market price is well above the realized price baseline; ∴ Indicates majority of holders are in profit — structurally bullish; ∴ However, this also creates a risk of profit-taking if confidence drops. ✴️ Conclusion: Strong support floor, but latent pressure exists. ⊢ ▦ SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio) – (1.013): ∴ Above 1 means active profit-taking; ∴ Downward slope shows this is starting to cool; ∴ Critical to monitor for a break below 1 - would shift dynamic. ✴️ Conclusion: Still healthy, but at the edge of distribution risk. ⊢ ▦ NUPL – (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) - (0.554): ∴ Unrealized profit remains dominant; ∴ Readings above 0.5 historically precede consolidation or pullbacks; ∴ Still distant from euphoric tops, but entering alert zone. ✴️ Conclusion: Market still in profit expansion phase - but under surveillance. ⊢ ▦ MVRV - (STH vs LTH) – (STH: 1.0 | LTH: 3.1 | Global: 2.2): ∴ STH neutral, LTH moderately elevated but not excessive; ∴ Market is mature, but not overheated; ∴ Still in a zone that supports further upside with restraint. ✴️ Conclusion: Healthy balance between holders - no imminent top confirmed. ⊢ ▦ CME Futures Open Interest: ∴ Sharp rise in open interest across expiry horizons; ∴ Sign of speculative leverage building; ∴ Historically correlates with volatile price action post-FOMC or macro events. ✴️ Conclusion: Liquidity pressure is rising - extreme caution warranted. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle: ∴ On-chain structure mirrors technical signals - strong trend, but cautious undertone; ∴ No major signs of reversal, but profit saturation could act as gravity if macro shocks occur; ∴ Market is exposed, not exhausted. ⊢ ⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus: ▦ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming): ∴ Powell speaks today (June 18); core expectation is rate hold; ∴ Market bracing for hawkish tone: fewer projected cuts and emphasis on inflation resilience; ∴ Historically, Bitcoin has reacted with -2% to -5% dips to hawkish FOMC tone. ✴️ Conclusion: Macro tension peak. Powell’s tone may dictate the next 30-day candle. ⊢ ⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis! ⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⊢ ⊢ ⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note: ∴ The technicals are strong, the on-chain base is stable, and the macro setup is explosive; ∴ This is a tension point, not a resolution point - silence before decision; ∴ Precision now is not found in action, but in observation. ⊢ ⌘ Market Status: ✴️ Position: " Cautiously Bullish. " ✴️ Tactical Mode: Observation Priority – No immediate entry without Powell clarity. ⊢
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Magister_Arcanvm
TAO 4H - Downtrend bottom? Altcoins have certainly taken a backseat to BTC this cycle with Bitcoin dominance holding around 65%. Despite this, there are still some good setups in altcoins presenting themselves each day, one of which is TAO on the 4H. To me it looks to be in a clear downtrend respecting the upper and lower limits while reacting off of support levels on the way down. As it stands price has reached a key S/R level that has proven to be support in the past and is in conjunction with the lower end of the trend channel. With FOMC only hours away and TAO being at such a critical level this would be an interesting place to do business. A good reaction off the level would kickstart a move towards the trends upper limits. A loss of this level and it's very possible what has been support can turn into resistance. To me the R:R here is good for a long position, the threat to the trade is bearish reaction to FOMC, escalation geo-politically which effects risk-on assets and therefor overalls TA.
by ProR35
2
Possible reversal on Nzd/UsdNZD/USD is currently trading around 0.6030, and there are indications of a potential reversal. Let's break down the key points : - Current Price: NZD/USD is trading at 0.6027, with a 0.2% increase in the last 24 hours. - Ascending Channel: The pair is testing the lower boundary of an ascending channel near 0.6020, which could signal a bearish bias if broken. - Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI remains above 50, suggesting a bullish bias is still in play. - Resistance Levels: Initial resistance is at the nine-day EMA of 0.6028, followed by the eight-month high of 0.6081. - *Support Levels*: A break below 0.6020 could lead to a decline toward the 50-day EMA at 0.5941. Maybe bullish: - Overlap Support: The pivot point at 0.5989 acts as an overlap support, which could lead to a bounce to the 1st resistance at 0.6060. - Buying Opportunity: Traders are monitoring NZD/USD for a buying opportunity around the 0.60000 zone, citing a testing of the upward trend and liquidity zone. Keep in mind that technical analysis is only part of investment reference, and market volatility can be unpredictable. It's essential to consider multiple factors, including economic news and geopolitical events, when making trading decisions .
Short
by odemerge
1
Crude Oil Futures: Navigating Geopolitical Risk and VolatilityMarket Context: NYMEX:CL1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME:6E1! Implied volatility (IV) in the front weeks (1W and 2W) is elevated, and the futures curve is in steep backwardation. This indicates heightened short-term uncertainty tied to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel. The forward curve, however, suggests the market is not fully pricing in sustained or escalating conflict. We evaluate three possible geopolitical scenarios and their implications for the Crude Oil Futures market: Scenario 1: Ceasefire Within 1–2 Weeks • Market Implication: Short-term geopolitical premium deflates. • Strategy: Short front-month / Long deferred-month crude oil calendar spread. o This position benefits from a reversion in front-month prices once the risk premium collapses, while deferred months—already pricing more stable conditions—remain anchored. o Risk: If the ceasefire fails to materialize within this narrow window, front-month prices could spike further, causing losses. Scenario 2: Prolonged War of Attrition (No Ceasefire, Ongoing Missile and Air War) • Market Implication: Front-end volatility may ease slightly but remain elevated; deferred contracts may begin to price in more geopolitical risk. • Strategy: Long back-month crude oil futures. o The market is currently underpricing forward-looking risk premiums. A persistent conflict, even without full-scale escalation, may eventually force the market to adjust deferred pricing upward. o Risk: Time decay and roll costs. Requires a longer holding horizon and conviction that the situation remains unresolved and volatile. Scenario 3: Full-Scale Regional War • Market Implication: Severe market dislocation, illiquidity, potential for capital flight, and broad-based risk-off sentiment across global assets. • Strategy: Avoid initiating directional exposure in crude. Focus on risk management and capital preservation. o In this tail-risk scenario, crude oil could spike sharply, but slippage, execution risk, and potential exchange halts or liquidity freezes make it unsuitable for new exposure. o Alternative Focus: Allocate to volatility strategies, defensive hedging (e.g., long Gold, long VIX futures), and cash equivalents. o Risk: Sudden market shutdowns or gaps may make exit strategies difficult to execute. Broader Portfolio Considerations Given the crude oil dynamics, there are knock-on effects across other markets: • Gold Futures: Flight-to-safety bid in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positioning in Gold (spot or near-month futures) with defined stop-loss levels is prudent as a hedge. • Equity Index Futures (E-mini Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500): Vulnerable to risk-off flows in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long volatility (VIX calls or long VX futures) or equity index puts as portfolio hedges. In Scenario 1, equities could rally on resolution optimism—especially growth-heavy Nasdaq. • Currency Futures: USD likely to strengthen as a safe haven in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long positions in Dollar and Short 6E futures. • Bond Futures: Risk-off flows theoretically should support Treasuries in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positions in 10Y or 30Y Treasury futures could serve as a defensive allocation. Yields may retrace sharply lower if escalation intensifies. However, given the current paradigm shift with elevated yields, higher for longer rates and long end remaining high, we would not bet too heavily on Bond futures to act as safe haven. Instead, inflows in Gold, strengthening of Chinese Yuan and Bitcoin will be key to monitor here. Scenario-based planning is essential when markets are pricing geopolitical risk in a non-linear fashion. Crude oil currently reflects a consensus expectation of de-escalation (Scenario 1), which opens the door for relative value and mean-reversion strategies in the front-end of the curve. However, given the asymmetric risks in Scenarios 2 and 3, prudent exposure management, optionality-based hedges, and a flexible risk framework are imperative. A diversified playbook; leveraging volatility structures, calendar spreads, and cross-asset hedges offers the best path to opportunity while managing downside risk.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
FED Day: NQ Futures planCME_MINI:NQ1! Today is FOMC day; however, there is a larger geopolitical risk looming, along with the trade war and tariffs situation unfolding. Recently, we have noted inflation moving lower, although it is not yet at the FED’s 2% target. Retail sales fell sharply last month. Tariffs have not yet resulted in inflation so far, partly due to the 90-day pause, and with possible extensions, some deals agreed upon, and a framework for others in place, tariff uncertainty has considerably reduced. On the contrary, lower energy prices that supported lower inflation have risen due to ongoing geopolitical issues. Risks remain high for elevated energy prices even if supply and sea routes remain unharmed. In our view, this is due to the fragility of the situation and what it would take to turn the ongoing war into the worst possible outcome. The FED releases their Summary of Economic Projections. Key data points will be inflation and growth projections, along with interest rate projections and any talks about neutral rates and expected cuts, given the bleak global outlook and growth. The FED is otherwise expected to hold rates steady in this meeting. Given this, and what Chair Powell says in the FOMC press conference, their commitment towards driving inflation lower versus maximum employment, risks on the growth and employment side have started to worsen. If rate cut bets are moved forward or if markets price in more rate cuts than currently priced in, we may see equity index futures make further gains. NQ futures are coiling; the yearly VPOC has shifted higher, as we explained in our previous analysis. Today’s meeting may be key for further fuel higher or lower, depending on how it pans out. Market participants are in a wait and see mode. Markets are accepting higher prices and break of balance is key to determine the direction price may be headed in. Until otherwise proven, markets are range bound and mean reverting from June Composite Volume Profile towards monthly VWAP and VPOC.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
My thoughts on Bitcoin long-term, as well as mid- to short-termLONG-TERM / THE BIG PICTURE: Regarding the big picture, we couldn’t be more bullish. We’re currently fighting our way through the cycle as usual—despite the fact that this cycle has had way too many chop phases, flushing out far too many participants. Just a few weeks ago, we got our bullish crossover on the weekly MACD—a signal that has triggered a major BTC rally every single time this cycle. At no point in this cycle has #BTC been overheated. The blow-off top is still coming. LOCAL PRICE ACTION: CRYPTOCAP:BTC remains in this vertical ascending channel and remains macro bullish what imo is another huge re-accumulation range lasting more than 200 days since November, that will lead to an impulsive breakout TO THE UPSIDE in the weeks to come MACRO LANDSCAPE: Due the last crash we potentially got an bulllish structure, wich if the price breaks the high at $110.000 is confiraed and can bring us to 120k on #Bitcoin On the lower TF we currently see an oversold RSI + a bounce from the 0.667 level RECOMMENDATION: Watch the high at 110k and the low at 100k, we have to break either one of these 2 levels. Have an eye on the current conflict with israel & iran and dont forget the FOMC meeting tmwr, where we can expect some important news due the current situation Either way, I'm long and mid-term bullish despite the current accumulation by long-term holders (which just peaked)... Always watch the big picture from above - maintain perspective and don't focus too much on smaller timeframes... But most importantly: Survive. Thanks for reading, let me know your thoughts about the current market situation & price action👇
by The-white-goat
Golden investment opportunity emerges!Market news: In the early Asian session on Wednesday (June 18), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3,380 per ounce. As the "safe haven king" in the global financial market, international gold has shown resilience in bottoming out and rebounding under the dual drive of recent geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The rise in London gold prices is inseparable from the fueling of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered its fifth day, and geopolitical risks continue to heat up, injecting strong momentum into safe-haven assets.Although geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven demand for gold, the strong performance of the US dollar has significantly suppressed gold prices. Against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the dollar's renewed support and the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude have become important factors limiting the upward trend of international gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy guidance, the trend of the US dollar and the latest developments in the Middle East. In addition, the initial value of the annualized total number of US building permits in May and the annualized total number of US new home starts in May will also be released on this trading day, and investors also need to pay attention. Technical Review: Gold bottomed out and rebounded, and adjusted widely and fluctuated fiercely. The daily chart closed with a positive cross line, and the RSI indicator's central axis 50 value flattened. The price dropped to the MA10 daily average line of 3366 and rebounded sharply, reaching 3396 in the Asian session. The short-term four-hour chart moving average is glued together, and the RSI indicator's central axis is adjusted. The hourly chart Bollinger Bands are closed, and the moving averages are glued together. Technically, gold maintains a wide range of fluctuations and short-term participation.The intraday trend and the weekly chart's high point gradually move downward, which shows that the control of selling in the market is gradually increasing. Although the gold price failed to continue the buying trend at the beginning of the week, it does not mean that buying is completely dominant, especially before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday this week, the market still has strong uncertainty about the future trend! Today's analysis: After gold bottomed out, it began to fluctuate again, but the overall trend is still selling. The gold rebound is still under pressure at 3400 and began to fall back. In the short term, gold 3400 is still an important resistance. Gold continues to sell at high prices before it effectively breaks through 3400. Today’s market is once again blocked when it hits a high point. The current intraday high is around 3396. The market has been operating under the pressure of 3400 in the past two days, and there is no sign of the market standing above 3400. Therefore, the 3400 barrier is still an effective pressure point. As long as it does not break through and stabilize at 3400 today, the rebound is an opportunity for us to sell! Operation ideas: Short-term gold 3365-3370 buy, stop loss 3356, target 3390-3440; Short-term gold 3390-3400 sell, stop loss 3408, target 3370-3350; Key points: First support level: 3363, second support level: 3346, third support level: 3333 First resistance level: 3400, second resistance level: 3408, third resistance level: 3420
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NuggetsWarriors
Accurate operation, both long and short gains!Gold has experienced a typical volatile market today, first rising to 3400 and then falling back to around 3380 as expected. The short order plan we arranged in advance was successfully closed, and we successfully took this wave of callback profits. What is more worth mentioning is that we also accurately entered the long order in the previous round of retracement and steadily harvested the rebound profits. The rhythm of long and short switching is smooth, the strategy is clear, and the execution is decisive - this is what trading should be like. The market is repetitive, and opportunities are always there. Whether you can put the profit steadily into your pocket depends not on how many times you are right, but on whether you can execute it at the key points. At present, the trend of gold shows that although there is a rebound after each decline, the strength is generally weak and it has never been able to break through the 3405 suppression level. The overall situation is still in a range of fluctuations, and market sentiment is still waiting for further guidance from the Fed. Therefore, short-term operations are still based on key points, and the market rhythm is slow, requiring more patience. In the case of no break at present, continue today's thinking to operate, unless there are sharp fluctuations in the short term or sudden news or geopolitical situations, then make adjustments. Gold operation suggestions: 1. Gold short orders: short near 3397-3405, target 3385-3375. 2. Gold long orders: long near 3375-3370, 3365-3360 can cover positions, target 3380-3390-3400. If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel