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Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin setting up for strong upside in 2025 thanks to TrumpSince the target of Bitcoin hit at $100,000, we are seeing bullish signs for BTC. First we have a strong W Formation form and break above the neckline. Second, the moving averages are aligned nicely with gPrice>20 and 200 Trump presidency is bullish who is supporting crypto with the Trump coin taking off (with volatility though) If Trump coin drops 50%, it will send crypto traders back to Bitcoin who'll see more stability with the coin. First target in 2025 is $151,691
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by Timonrosso
1
DAY 12: Inauguration Day.As stated earlier today we have the swearing in of US president elect Donald Trump which is scheduled for New York AM session. Today being a Monday ,we normally have the market ranging but for today we will be looking at the market differently. Market could be volatile during those hours and I expect price swings which could affect your account positively or negatively so today trade with caution. Took a sell on GBPUSD earlier as I expect price to retest the previous lows at 1.21100 and maybe even lower before a correction higher.Range is between 1.2300 and 1.21100
Short
by Muchangi
1
USD/JPY calm in holiday tradeThe yen is almost unchanged on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.37, up 0.06% on the day. We can expect a quiet day, as the US observes Martin Luther King Day and Donald Trump will be sworn in as President. The yen is coming off a busy week, with sharp swings on each of the past three trading days. The Japanese currency gained 0.95% last week, its best week since November. Still, USD/JPY remains high and investors are anxiously awaiting the Bank of Japan rate decision on Jan. 24. There are no tier-1 releases out of Japan this week but investors will be busy keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision on Friday. The central bank tends not to telegraph its intentions but has hinted at a rate hike and the market will be on the lookout for any hints or signals from BoJ policy makers ahead of the rate decision. The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. Inflation has been above the BoJ's 2% target for almost three years and higher wage growth means that inflation should remain sustainable as it moves higher. The weak yen is another reason for the BoJ to raise rates and make the yen more attractive to investors. The big question mark is Donald Trump, whose has promised tariffs on US trading partners, which threatens to shake up the financial markets and damage Japan's crucial export sector. The Trump factor is unlikely to prevent a rate hike this week, but supports the case for the BoJ to wait several months before delivering another rate hike. USD/JPY tested support at 155.88 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.39 There is resistance at 156.79 and 157.28
by OANDA
XAUUSD - Gold will stabilize above $2700?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the ceiling of the channel, you can look for positions to sell it towards the midline of the channel. Losing the bottom of the channel will lead to the continuation of the downward trend. The gold market had a strong start to the first full trading week of 2025. However, as the week progressed, optimism among traders grew, with predictions indicating a potential rally in gold prices ahead of Trump’s second presidential term. Nevertheless, the market remains cautious about upcoming developments. Rich Checkan, the president and COO of “International Assets Strategies,” believes: “Unless there are any major disruptions during Monday’s inauguration ceremony, I expect gold prices to remain relatively unchanged next week. Market participants are waiting for more clarity on President Trump’s economic policies and their impact on key economic variables. However, one week is insufficient to see tangible effects, and a longer timeframe is needed for better evaluation.” Bart Melek, the managing director and head of commodity strategy at “TD Securities,” highlighted the potential for higher tariffs and their inflationary effects, predicting a slight dip in gold prices. He stated: “If the new president addresses tariffs, signaling higher inflation, and the Federal Reserve takes a more serious stance on its inflation target, gold prices could decline moderately.” At the beginning of 2025, gold is trading near $2,700 per ounce, while Bitcoin has approached the $100,000 threshold, placing both assets at the center of attention in emerging markets. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, forecasts that a correction in stock markets could drive gold prices above $4,000 this year. He remarked: “Gold reaching $4,000 will eventually happen. The unlimited supply of fiat currencies and the limited supply of gold, similar to Bitcoin, make this likely. However, my concern is that a natural and modest correction in the stock market, which is currently overvalued, could push gold to such levels.” McGlone pointed out that the ratio of stock market value to U.S. GDP is around 2.2x — an unprecedented figure in the last 100 years. He emphasized that even a 10% correction in the stock market could provide the necessary momentum for gold prices to surge.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
EUR/NZD - Confirmation in the formation of an Ascending ChannelHi guys , the next trade we are going to take a look into is the EUR/NZD - Currently on 1H and 4H the RSI has formulated a great Ascending Channel ,which we want to follow, additionally this week we have a big amount of Fundamental events which would support our thesis and analysis into this uptrend. Entry: 1.8380 Target: 1.8450 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Long
by DG55Capital
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 20 - 24 JanuaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: CAD, GBP, and JPY Markets, Gold, and Corporate Earnings In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode: - What does the latest employment data mean for the British pound and the Bank of England’s policy direction? - Will December’s inflation data influence the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest rate decision? Find out how this could impact the USD/CAD pair. - Will the BOJ raise rates again? Discover the potential impacts on the USD/JPY pair. - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are driving gold prices. Learn what to watch for in XAU/USD trading. - Big names like Netflix, 3M, Procter & Gamble, and Johnson & Johnson are releasing their quarterly results. Check their expected performance and market implications. Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
by FXOpen
2
Bitcoin will continue its journey towards 110k, Read the captionHello everyone, read this and support me like comment share this to your friends. There you go with this chart that I have made and it provides a 1-hour analysis of Bitcoin showing price movement within a clear ascending channel. Key technical levels, including support, potential targets, and stop-loss (SL) areas, are highlighted. Here's a breakdown of the chart with geopolitical and political influences considered: Chart Analysis: 1. Trend Channel: Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel (blue), indicating a bullish structure. The lower boundary acts as support, while the upper boundary represents resistance. 2. Support and Resistance: Support Zone: Around 107214 , this level provides a safety net for bullish momentum. Resistance zone : It is after the target. Target : Positioned near 110500 , suggesting a potential breakout above the ascending channel. 3. Stop-Loss Area: Marked in red below the support level. This zone represents a critical area to limit downside risks for traders if the bullish scenario fails. 4. Projection: A breakout above the current price trend could push Bitcoin to the target area. Alternatively, failure to maintain support could lead to a pullback, triggering the SL area. Impact of Trump’s Oath Ceremony and Geopolitical Factors: 1. Trump’s Oath Ceremony: Market Volatility : If the ceremony involves significant economic or regulatory announcements related to cryptocurrencies, it could heavily influence Bitcoin prices. Potential Policies: Pro-crypto policies or endorsements could fuel bullish momentum, driving Bitcoin toward or above the 110,500 target. Conversely, unfavorable regulations could cause a dip. 2. Geopolitical Tensions: Bitcoin as a Safe Haven: Heightened geopolitical conflicts or wars may increase demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin. Such uncertainty would likely bolster Bitcoin’s price trajectory within the ascending channel. Global Economic Conditions: Factors like inflation, currency instability, or banking crises may further drive Bitcoin adoption, aligning with the bullish projection. 3. Regulatory Landscape: Upcoming regulatory discussions or enforcement actions globally could affect Bitcoin sentiment, either reinforcing the support level or triggering a pullback. Conclusion: This chart outlines a favorable bullish scenario for Bitcoin. However, external factors like political events and global instability could either amplify its upward trajectory toward the target or challenge the bullish structure by increasing market uncertainty. Investors should monitor these events closely while adhering to risk management (e.g. stop loss) Key levels; Buy 107214 target: 110500 SL: 105487 Note; This is for educational purposes not the trading advice. Kindly support me.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Jacks_Trading_Service
Curve (crv)Crv usdt Daily analysis Time frame 2hours Risk rewards ratio >2.3 👌👈 Technical analysis CRV is caught in a triangle. In similar cases, the price breaks out from the bottom or top of the triangle.And we'll have to wait and see where it comes from. But why is my analysis a bullish one? This bullish analysis is solely for the purpose of examining market sentiment. Given the positive news we hear in the cryptocurrency market and the positive sentiment of buyers in this market, we come to this bullish analysis. Risk rewards ratio is another good point for this analysis Ratio 2.3 makes me a brave heart analyzer. Only by introducing a false selling pressure can this analysis be failed. So , I put my LS in correct place. Of course I know the power of stop hunters.
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli
LONG on XMR/USDTI'm opening a long position on XMR/USDT based on a broader market narrative. As regulatory frameworks around cryptocurrency are expanding globally, privacy coins like Monero (XMR) stand to benefit significantly. With privacy-focused features becoming increasingly valuable in a regulated landscape, Monero could experience substantial growth. From a technical standpoint, the chart shows , aligning with this fundamental view. Targeting with a stop-loss at to manage risk. Let's see how this idea plays out! 🚀 What do you think of this analysis? Feedback is welcome!
Long
by MasoudEskandari
GOLD → A change in fundamental background. Strong resistanceFX:XAUUSD faces strong resistance at 2721 and enters correction phase, which also coincides with the change of fundamental background and economic data Weakening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, the US dollar and US bonds. In addition, expectations of stimulus measures from China improved market sentiment. Despite this, the downward trend for gold may remain limited due to Trump's rather risky policies and expectations of two Fed interest rate cuts later this year. Overall, gold prices are likely to be volatile in the short term due to holiday market conditions and Trump's upcoming executive orders. Technically, the price is inside a symmetrical triangle, which in turn is located inside an ascending channel. If the resistance is not broken, pressure will be applied to the support.... Resistance levels: 2713, 2717, 2721 Support levels: 2702, 2697, 2690 A retest of 2702 will increase the chances of support breakdown and further fall. It can happen after the resistance retest. I do not exclude a false breakdown of one of the mentioned resistance levels before a further fall. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
10
Inauguration Week: Will the Rally Endure?The FX market is bracing for a potentially volatile week, with the US presidential inauguration coinciding with crucial economic data releases. This confluence of events could trigger significant uncertainty and trading opportunities. Dollar's Strength and Potential Vulnerability The US dollar has been on an impressive rally, fueled by expectations of policy shifts, monetary policy divergence, and strong economic data. However, this upward momentum could be vulnerable to a correction, particularly if upcoming economic data disappoints or if the inauguration triggers unexpected market reactions. Technically, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing resistance around the 110 level. A break above this level could signal further upside potential, while a failure to break through could lead to consolidation or a minor correction back towards 108.00. BoJ Rate Decision in Focus This week also features key central bank meeting. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, potentially impacting the Japanese yen. USD/JPY is currently hovering around the 157 level. A hawkish BoJ could trigger a sharp appreciation of the yen, sending USD/JPY tumbling back towards the 152-150 zone. Conversely, a dovish stance could reignite the dollar's dominance against the yen, potentially pushing USD/JPY towards the recent high of 162.00. Eurozone PMI Data and the Euro's Outlook The Eurozone will release its latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. Weaker-than-expected PMI figures could further weigh on the euro, which has already faced pressure from the dollar's strength. EUR/USD is on a gradual descent, with a strong possibility of reaching parity (1.0000) within the first quarter of 2025. The pair recently bounced off the 1.0200 level, which now acts as a critical support. A decisive break below this level would significantly increase the likelihood of the pair reaching parity. Other Key Currencies: ● British Pound: The pound remains vulnerable amid concerns about the UK economy. GBP/USD has broken below key support levels and is currently testing the 1.21 area. A break below this level could signal further downside potential. ● Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar is sensitive to developments in the Chinese economy. AUD/USD is trading near a key resistance level at 0.6200. A failure to break above this level could lead to further declines. ● Canadian Dollar: Canadian inflation data will be released this week, potentially influencing the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions. USD/CAD is currently testing a resistance zone around 1.4450. A break above this level could open the door for further gains. *This is a market analysis, not trading advice. Trade responsibly and do your own research.
TVC:DXY
by E8Markets
1
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's new decisions!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and has left its descending channel. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. In recent days, the value of the U.S. dollar has risen, and Treasury yields have also increased. These developments are primarily driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts this year. President Trump’s promises to raise tariffs, reduce corporate taxes, and deregulate industries have sparked concerns about rising inflation, which was already persistent even before these policies were implemented. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy appears robust, with strong labor market performance in November and December, indicating that the Federal Reserve may not feel pressured to accelerate interest rate cuts. According to projections, investors anticipate that interest rates will decrease by approximately 0.4% by December 2025. This expectation persists despite reports suggesting the new U.S. administration will implement tariff hikes gradually and December inflation data came in lower than expected. The U.S. Tax Foundation estimates that if the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 20% tariff on imports from other countries, the average tariff rate would climb to 17.7%. This would represent the highest level recorded since the 1930s. Trump has pledged to impose steep tariffs on goods imported from various nations; however, economists have warned about the potential consequences of such policies. In a recent Reuters survey, all participating economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates within the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its January 29 meeting. Additionally, 61 out of 103 economists expect the rate to decrease to 4.00%-4.25% by March. The survey results also reveal that 65 out of 102 economists believe the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates no more than twice this year (compared to 41 out of 97 in the December survey who held this view). Moreover, 40 out of 49 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast that U.S. inflation in 2025 will likely exceed expectations. Scott Bassant, the nominee for Treasury Secretary in President-elect Trump’s administration, described China’s economy as being in recession. Taking a more pessimistic tone, Bassant labeled China as one of the most unbalanced economies in the world, highlighting the country’s prioritization of military strength and efforts to maintain growth by exporting cheap goods to the rest of the world.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
Gold: uncertainty holdsThe price of gold continued to move within a positive correlation with the US Dollar for the last two weeks. Regardless of US Dollar further gains during the previous week, the price of gold also took the path toward the higher grounds. The resistance line at $2,7K has been tested, while the price of gold is ending the week at the level of $2.702. The geopolitical issues are now modestly calming down, however, the forthcoming inauguration of the new US Administration on Monday, January 20th, still represents some uncertainty for global investors. The moves that the new Administration might impose, especially related to trade tariffs with China, is still perceived among investors with a dose of scepticism. The highest weekly level of gold was reached on Thursday at the level of $2.721. From this level the price was “rejected” on Friday, where the gold was traded lower, but still above the $2,7K level. The RSI is clearly heading toward the overbought market side, but is still moving around the level of 60, which leaves some space for a further increase in the price, before the actual overbought market side is reached. The moving average of 50 days continues to modestly converge toward the MA200, however, there is still a distance between two lines, as well as potential cross. Current charts are showing the potential for the price of gold to shortly revert back toward the $2.650 level. However, this does not imply that such a move would occur in the week ahead. Since November last year the level of $2,7K has been tested on three occasions, where in two cases the price of gold was not able to cross this level. Whether the same situation will also occur this time is hard to note with a higher level of certainty. Certainly, market sentiment shaped on Monday, after the inauguration will set the stage for the future course of gold. If uncertainty continues, there is a higher probability that the price of gold will move toward the higher grounds. In the opposite case, the price of gold will start its reversal toward the marked level of $2.650.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: not so scary inflationDuring the previous period, the 10Y US Treasury yields were heading toward the 4,8% level, in a fear of potential higher inflation in the US supported by the strong jobs market. However, posted inflation figures during the previous week, showed that the inflation level in December was modestly below market estimate. This was a sign for the market that the Fed might actually pursue with a planned two rate cuts during the course of this year. In this sense, Treasury yields tumbled down, toward the lowest weekly level of 4,57%. Still, they are ending the week at the level of 4,62%. In addition to a slowdown in inflation, a note from Fed Governor Waller that the Fed might cut multiple times this year, further cooled down the Treasury yields. It could be expected that the markets will continue to consolidate in the coming period, after the inflation figures showed that there is a decreasing trend, regardless of a strong jobs market. However, there is still a day to watch on Monday, January 20th, where an inauguration of a new US administration will take place. There is some probability for a higher volatility on this day, but still, it could not be expected for some higher moves to either side.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to weaken?The GBPJPY currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the corrective movement continues towards the supply zone, we can sell with a suitable risk reward. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, the UK government faces significant challenges in restoring investor confidence, as the pound and British bonds continue their downward trend. Following a decline in UK markets early in 2025 due to rising concerns over debt and inflation, about 51% of the 250 participants in last week’s survey predicted the pound would fall to between $1.15 and $1.20 by the end of June. This would mark the currency’s weakest level in over two years. Meanwhile, 45% of participants anticipate greater volatility in the pound, with 10-year UK bond yields expected to rise above 5% this year.Taylor, a member of the Bank of England, emphasized the importance of staying vigilant against potential risks. He suggested that recent data indicate a worsening economic outlook and that interest rates should be reduced promptly to avoid further challenges. In Japan, households expect prices to rise in the coming year. The percentage of households with such expectations increased slightly from 85.6% in the previous survey to 85.7%. However, five-year inflation expectations have seen a slight decline. According to the Bank of Japan, average annual inflation expectations among households stand at 11.5%, based on the latest survey. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week. The firm also remains optimistic about the yen, expecting any action by the Bank of Japan in January to support the currency. Market pricing suggests that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost certain. According to Bloomberg, Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will evaluate the need for a rate hike on Friday. Expectations for an interest rate increase have grown, provided that potential shocks from the early days of Trump’s presidency do not materialize. While other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are focused on rate cuts, the Bank of Japan is moving in the opposite direction, aiming for a gradual return to conventional monetary policies. The Bank of Japan is set to announce its first interest rate decision of 2025 on Friday. During its final meeting in 2024, the bank decided to keep rates unchanged. Governor Ueda stated that more data is needed to justify a rate hike, highlighting concerns about wages and uncertainties surrounding Trump’s economic policies. Since then, new data has shown a significant rise in November inflation, with December inflation pressures also intensifying. Wages also grew in November. Additionally, a summary of opinions from the December meeting indicates that a rate hike could occur sooner than investors anticipate. Given these developments and recent remarks from BoJ officials, investors assign an 80% probability to a 0.25% rate hike. However, the Bank of Japan has a long history of disappointing expectations for rate increases. If Trump adopts an aggressive stance on tariffs in his upcoming speech, the BoJ may once again refrain from raising rates, potentially leading to a decline in the yen. If the Bank of Japan does raise interest rates, the yen is likely to strengthen, but the associated risks are asymmetrical. The negative impact of refraining from a hike could outweigh the positive effect of an increase. Nonetheless, a further decline in the yen might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to support the currency.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year. There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now. Bitcoin On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support. But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always) Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks. As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period. The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high. On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon. But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out. If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week. But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Send us an email or message us on social media. cheers! Jasper
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
11
SPX: on a tricky pathDuring the previous two weeks, the US equity market went through a short term correction, amid investors fears that the Fed might halt further cuts of interest rates during the course of this year, due to stronger than expected jobs market and potential surge in inflation in the US. The December inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which showed that the inflation in the US was held below market expectations, which brought back some optimism among investors. The S&P 500 recovered from losses, and ended the week at the level of 5.996. However, the question still remains if the index took a path toward the upside, or is this only a short term optimism? An inauguration of the new US Administration is scheduled for January 20th, where the markets will closely watch what measures will be actually taken within the first week, from all the promises from the pre-election period. The most challenging move is the one related to trade tariffs with China, which might bring some negative impact to the US economy. In this sense, Monday will be a day to watch during the week ahead. For one more week, tech stocks were in the focus of market attention during the previous week. Tesla stocks gained over 3% for the week, followed by other big tech companies and the semiconductor industry. The only stock that is still struggling to regain market cap is Apple, whose shares were hit by news that Apple is losing market share in China due to strong competition from local smartphone producers. Banking sector was also closely watched, as they posted quarterly results. As their earnings were higher from expectations, the stocks of major US banks gained significantly within the week. Goldman Sachs and CITI Group were traded higher by roughly 12%, while JPMorgan was traded higher by 8%. For the week ahead, Monday is the day to watch. After the President-elect won the US elections in November, the market reacted in a positive manner. Whether this optimism will continue to hold after his inauguration is to be seen during the week ahead.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: short term stop before the parityEURUSD: short term stop before the parity The US inflation data was in the market focus during the previous week. It was a missing puzzle for the current period, for the investors' sentiment in terms of the next Feds move. Inflation rate in December was standing at 0,4% for the month, in line with market expectations, same as inflation on a yearly level at 2,9%. The core inflation in December was 0,2% for the month and 3,2% on a yearly basis. As for other macro indicators posted during the previous week, the Producers Price Index in December was standing at 0,2% for the month and 3,3% for the year. Both figures were below market expectations. Retail sales in December were higher by 0,4% compared to the previous month, a bit lower from market estimate of 0,5%. The number of building permits in the US was lower by 0,7% on a monthly basis in December, while housing starts were higher by 15,8% for the month. Industrial production increased in December by 0,9% for the month and 0,5% on a yearly basis. The full year GDP growth in Germany is -0,2% in line with market expectations. Industrial Production in the Euro Zone was standing at 0,2% in November, bringing total IP at -1,9% on a yearly basis. Inflation rate final for December in Germany is 0,5% for the month and 2,6% for the year. Figures were in line with market expectations. Inflation rate final in the Euro Zone in December was 0,4% for the month. Supported by lower than expected inflation figures, the US Dollar continued to strengthen during the previous week. The lowest weekly level of the currency pair was 1,018 on one occasion. However, the majority of deals were conducted around the level of 1,028 level, while the highest weekly level reached was at 1,034. The RSI continues to move modestly above the oversold market side, since November last year. The moving average of 50 days continues to strongly diverge from its MA200 counterpart, without an indication of potential slowdown. In a week ahead, there is no scheduled release of currently significant macro data which could potentially move the market toward one side. However, it should be considered that the market will closely monitor the inauguration of the new US Administration, where some volatility might emerge. In this sense, Monday, January 20th should be closely watched. As per potential eurusd moves, charts are showing potential for a short term support line at 1,20 to be tested in the coming period. This level does not represent a significant one, when looking at the longer chart frame, but only a short term stop before the eurusd parity. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Producers Price Index for December in Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for January in Germany, HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for January in Germany, and the Euro Zone; USD: Existing Home Sales for December, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for January,
by XBTFX
Bitcoin: a new dawnPrevious two weeks were a bit shaky for the crypto market, as investors were anticipating a changed Fed's mood for interest rate cuts during the course of this year, due to strong jobs market and potential increase in inflation. Still, December figures showed that there is no need for such a fear, so the markets returned into the positive mood. The crypto market gained during the previous week, while BTC managed to get back toward levels above the $100K. BTC started the previous week by testing the resistance line at $95K. This level was easily crossed, so BTC continued its path toward the $105,5K which was the highest weekly level. The RSI currently moves around the level of 65, leaving some space for a further surge in price, until the clear overbought market side is reached. The moving average of 50 days started a divergence from MA200, indicating that no cross will occur in the future period. The week of inauguration of the new US President-elect is ahead. The event is scheduled for Monday, January 20th. Considering his strong support to the crypto ecosystem in the pre-election period, it could be expected that the crypto market will continue to be in a positive mood. There is a chance for BTC to reach its ATH level in the week ahead, which was at $107,9K in December last year. Whether the market will be ready to push the price further to the upside is about to be seen. From the perspective of the technical analysis, levels above the $107,9K are treated as uncharted territory, so in this case, BTC will create a new history.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: January 20 – 26Last week in the news The US inflation is not as scary as investors previously thought. In this sense, they adjusted previous expectations and returned positive sentiment to financial markets. The US equity markets recovered from losses carried two weeks ago. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.996. The US Dollar continued to gain in strength, but due to general uncertainty, the price of gold also surged back to the $2,7K levels. The US Treasury yields reacted strongly on inflation figures, bringing back the 10Y US benchmark to the level of 4,62%. In the dawn of the US new Administration inauguration, the crypto market also reacted positively, bringing BTC back above the level of $100K. The US inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which was the major macro event. The inflation rate in December was standing at 0,4% for the month, bringing the inflation figure to 2,9% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market forecasts. At the same time, core inflation was lower from market estimate, reaching 0,2% for the month and 3,2% on a yearly basis. This was information that changed market sentiment from negative to positive. Namely, strong jobs figures initiated a fear among investors that inflation might be higher than previously estimated, in which sense, the Fed will halt further cuts of interest rates. The current situation signals that the market was wrong with previous estimates, and that inflation in the US is on a clear down trend, in which sense, the Fed might continue with planned two rate cuts during the course of this year. The US 10Y Treasury yields also had a strong reaction to inflation data, bringing yields from the 4,8% down to 4,62%. level. During the previous week markets were discussing a new meme coin issued by a new US President-elected, whose inauguration is scheduled for January 20th. The meme coin was issued on a Solana blockchain, where this coin surged by 12% on Saturday and 23% on Friday. News is reporting that this coin currently has a market cap of nearly $5 billion and is the largest coin on the Solana chain. The Bank of Japan is again in the spotlight of investors' attention. Namely, there are an increasing number of news reports noting a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan in order to support the decreasing value of its currency. Reuters mentioned sources from BoJ which noted higher probability that the BoJ will increase its reference rates on a meeting as of the end of January. Market participants are currently pricing 80% chances for a rate hike at the forthcoming BoJ meeting. Due to the significant amount in carry trades, there is a higher probability that the markets in the US might react in a negative manner to this BoJ action. There was a lot of dust in the media regarding the TikTok ban in the US during previous weeks. However, Reuters posted the latest news that the new President-elect Trump will allow TikTok to operate in the US only if US investors hold 50% stake in the company. Crypto market cap As inflation in the US is clearly under control and on its way down, and as inauguration of a new President-elect is coming due, the crypto market turned to the positive hype for one more time. The majority of crypto coins were traded in a positive sentiment during the previous week, increasing total crypto market capitalization by 11% on a weekly level, adding a new $340B to it. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased to the level of $382B on a daily basis, from $130B traded a week before. Total crypto market cap increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 11%, where $340B has been added. Almost all crypto coins ended the week in a positive territory. The highest increase in market cap came from Bitcoin, which increased its value by more than 11% on a weekly basis, adding a new $211B to it. A new $19B came from ETH, which was a weekly increase of around 5% for this coin. XRP was also in the spotlight of the market, which managed to increase its market value by 27% w/w, adding $38B to its market cap. This time Solana should be specially mentioned. Namely, the coin surged by more than 44% after a new meme coin TRUMP was issued on this network, which represents the highest coin on this blockchain. Eventually, the market has a new favorite coin on the market, called TRUMP, issued by the current US President-elect. In only a few days, this coin managed to collect $ 13B in the market cap, and currently takes 16th place on the list of most valuable coins, based on data from Coinmarketcap. The TRUMP coin surged by an incredible 918% for the last seven days. In line with the significant surge in the market cap, Solana also increased the number of its coins in circulation by 0,5% on a weekly basis. Stellar and Algorand had an increase in circulating coins by 0,2%, each. The number of Tether stablecoins increased by 0,7% during the previous week. Crypto futures market The crypto hype is for one more time on the crypto market, but this time also on the crypto futures market. Some interesting developments occurred with BTC futures during the previous week. Namely, all maturities were traded higher by more than 10% on a weekly basis, where futures maturing in December 2026 reached the price of $124.045. This represents the highest ever quoted price for BTC, indicating that the market is extremely positively oriented toward this coin. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at the level of $114.145. ETH futures were traded higher around 7,5% for all maturities. Futures maturing as of the end of this year ended the week at the level of $3.778. Those futures maturing in December 2026 managed to cross the $ 4K level, ending the week at $4.057.
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by XBTFX
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