Fundamental Analysis
Following weekly structureWeekly tf has giving a clear choch
H4 making LLs
Marked POI on the weekly for potensial downside
First we have to grab all liquidity created before we have a manupilation to the upside
Lets see hows this gonna play out in the next 2 weeks tops
EURUSD is in play as investors shift from the dollarEuro remains to be in focus along with other assets, as US markets lose attractiveness among investors, especially from China, who start to put more focus on European and Japanese bonds rather than US treasuries. The Euro had little to no reaction to the decline of the interest rate from the ECB: on the one hand, this rate cut was already priced in, on the other - the market didn't initiate any sell-offs despite the “weak” news for the Euro.
That points to a particularly strong sentiment for this currency, despite some cooling down of volumes on CME futures. Open interest for Euro Forex futures contracts, though, remains steady. The net position of commercial traders is dipping, but still far from the historical low.
Technically, the position of the price is higher than 3 daily volatility levels (ATRs) from the 20-day moving average on the daily chart, which makes this instrument a “momentum play”, and may lead to a further extension to the upside - presumably, after holidays.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
LINK/USDT 8H - targets and stoplossHello everyone, let's look at the 8h chart LINK to USDT, in this situation we can see how the price has come out on top from the local downtrend line and how it is currently moving in a local sideways trend.
Let's start by defining the targets for the near future that the price has to face:
T1 = 12.65 USD
T2 = 13.13 USD
Т3 = 13.87 USD
Т4 = 14.40 USD
Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to fall:
SL1 = 11.91 USD
SL2 = 11.05 USD
SL3 = 10.36 USD
SL4 = 9.66 USD
The MACD indicator shows an attempt to return to the uptrend, but here we can see a struggle that gives a sideways trend on the chart.
Pengu Shortwe are only a few 100'drenths away from zero , so im pretty sure, we going to go all the way down to zero and then maybe bounce back.
but the zero will come before the falling wedge pattern plays out ;) !!
and tariffs- !!
Long - assuming nothing else blows upThe recent drop seems to be due by policy that is still ambiguous and evolving, good chance trade war dies down when deals are made. other than that, NDX bounced off a previous high and has momentum to at least revert to the ma
YFIUSDT buy in the pink area and sell on 44000hello dear friends u can get some profits by buy and sell yfi see the chart and it is the best analysis for yfiusdt chart
like if you get profit by the analysis
Global M2 MONEY SUPPLY VS GLOBAL LIQUIDITYWhich is the best to track ₿itcoin price action?
Lots of macro gurus have been arguing over the two.
For comparison, I have indexes for both metrics on a 12-Week Lead, tracking the 4 largest central banks:
The Federal Reserve (including TGA & RRP), People’s Bank of China, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.
Let’s start by defining each.
Global M2 Money Supply covers physical cash in circulation and cash equivalents such as checking and savings deposits, as well as money market securities.
Global Liquidity covers a broader measure of liquid assets driven by central bank balance sheets, private sector financial activity (e.g., lending, corporate cash), and cross-border capital flows.
Historically, both move closely in lock-step and act as a great leading indicator for ₿itcoin, however we can see that Global Liquidity can have more drastic fluctuations.
We saw a large divergence in CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA with both metrics when the Blackrock iShares ₿itcoin ETF appeared on the DTCC list, a procedural step signaling progress toward potential approval.
When you look at the charts of all three, you can see there are points where either metric might follow CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA a bit closer, so in the end I would say it’s best to track both to find confluence in the signal.
The result of the previous weekIt was a good week I hope it continues
From now on, I decided to post the result to remind myself what my mistake was in the previous analysis and to correct it.
Celsius Holdings Outperforms Market with Strong YTD GainsCelsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) continues to attract significant investor attention, closing at $37.24 on April 17, up $0.58 (1.58%). The functional energy drink maker has delivered impressive year-to-date returns of 41.38%, substantially outpacing the S&P 500's 10.18% gain during the same period.
For the current quarter, analysts expect earnings of $0.20 per share, representing a 25.9% year-over-year decline. However, consensus estimates have improved dramatically with a 32.8% upward revision over the last 30 days. The full-year outlook appears more favorable, with projected earnings of $0.99 per share indicating a 41.4% annual increase, followed by 15.1% growth to $1.14 per share next fiscal year.
Current quarter sales are expected to decline slightly to $345.26 million (-2.9%), but full-year revenue estimates show robust growth of 55.3% to $2.1 billion, followed by 19.4% growth next fiscal year. Celsius has demonstrated strong execution recently, beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters.
Technical Analysis
Technically, the chart shows a strong recovery from its $21.10 low. Price has recently broken above the 50-day moving average but remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting improving momentum within a longer-term downtrend. Key resistance appears around $47-49, marked by a horizontal level that previously acted as support.
Volume has increased during recent price advances, adding credibility to the current uptrend. The next major challenge will be overcoming the $49 resistance zone before potentially continuing toward higher targets as indicated in the chart projection. If price faces rejection, it is likely to drop back to support at around $25.
TRXUSDTTRX Price Analysis – Key Levels to Watch
🔍 Current Price Action:
TRX is currently trading within a tight range, with key resistance at 0.2431 and support at 0.2275. The recent close near 0.2418 indicates a strong battle near the upper resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above 0.2431 could pave the way for bullish continuation. However, failure to break through may trigger a pullback toward 0.2340 or even retest the 0.2275 support level.
📉 Trend Outlook & Next Moves:
A breakout above resistance may drive TRX toward higher price targets with strong bullish momentum.
Conversely, a breakdown below support could indicate a deeper correction ahead.
👉 Keep an eye on price reactions at these critical levels for confirmation of the next trend direction.
Keurig Dr Pepper Holds Steady Ahead of Quarterly EarningsKeurig Dr Pepper (KDP) shares have shown resilience in recent weeks, climbing 5.9% over the past month while the broader S&P 500 declined by 6.9%. The beverage giant currently trades at $35.40, up $0.29 (0.83%), with 13.96 million shares traded. Analysts maintain a consensus "Hold" rating as KDP approaches its upcoming earnings announcement.
Wall Street expects the company to report earnings of $0.38 per share, unchanged from the year-ago quarter, while revenue is projected to reach $3.56 billion, representing a 2.8% year-over-year increase.
The company has seen minor positive revisions to its earnings estimates, with consensus EPS projections increasing by 0.1% over the past 30 days. This modest upward adjustment could signal improving analyst sentiment about KDP's near-term performance.
Breaking down the revenue expectations by segment, analysts forecast U.S. Refreshment Beverages will lead growth at $2.23 billion, up 6.6% year-over-year. Meanwhile, U.S. Coffee is expected to contract slightly to $884.51 million (-2.9%), and International sales may decrease to $448.32 million (-3.4%).
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, KDP has established an ascending trend line since reaching a low of $30.12. The stock currently trades above both its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting positive momentum. The chart shows resistance around the $36 level, with support at the trend line near $33.60. Trading volume has increased during recent uptrend, potentially indicating stronger buyer conviction.
Frothy FOMO Coffee: Why Starbucks May Face a Harsh ReckoningWe may be staring down a considerable downside in Starbucks’ share price — and I suspect the decline could be severe. When a genuine recession hits — not the softened, cosmetically massaged versions we've seen bandied about — discretionary spending is the first casualty. And let us be honest: a $7 small latte, regardless of its oat milk or seasonal syrup, is the very definition of discretionary.
Inflation over the past four years has not been a natural occurrence. It is the predictable consequence of reckless fiscal policies and excessive monetary accommodation — in plain English, wasteful government spending and money printing. These policies have inflated prices across the board, and coffee is no exception.
What is perhaps underappreciated by most analysts is the brewing effect of tariffs. Come September, we will begin to see the real impact of trade friction on coffee imports from major producers such as Brazil and Colombia. Coffee futures already hit all-time highs in February. Although prices have since pulled back, I view that retreat not as relief, but as the first ominous sign that something is amiss.
Starbucks operates globally, but its margins are still vulnerable to supply chain shocks and input cost inflation. As the economic pain spreads, we should expect average consumers — not just in the US, but in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere — to make different decisions. The morning coffee ritual may remain, but the $7 takeaway will be replaced by home-brewed alternatives and budget-conscious behaviour.
I foresee the possibility of a bear flag pattern luring investors back in with a short-term rally — a classic trap, falsely interpreted as recovery. But please, do not be fooled by this. I believe Starbucks stock could drop sharply later this year, with a potential downside target around $57.80.
This will not be a gentle correction. I expect it to be brutal — marked by layoffs, store closures, and perhaps a reckoning of Starbucks’ business model itself, which is built upon the illusion of small luxuries being affordable in all seasons.
For the rational investor, this is not a time for sentiment or brand loyalty. It is a time for analysis, discipline, and preparation.
This is not investment advice. Do your own research. I could be wrong.
#GBPUSD: Two Prominent Buying Points! Will Dxy Bounce Back? Due to strong economic data supporting GBP, its price has been bullish throughout the week, especially since DXY plunged. Given ongoing trade tensions, we may see another higher high. This is risky, so please analyse it yourself.
Like and comment to support us in bringing more analysis.
Have a great weekend! ❤️
Team Setupsfx_
Bull Flag or Breakdown? A Liquidity Proxy Near Its LimitsIs Bitcoin forming a head and shoulders pattern before a correction, or are we in the midst of another bull flag consolidation? Personally, I lean toward the latter — that this is a classic bull flag being formed. That does not preclude us from seeing more volatility in the short term. We could very well chop sideways for the next two months or even move lower before the next leg up. It’s entirely plausible that we test and ultimately break through the 109,000 level before advancing toward 132,000.
That said, we must also acknowledge the alternative: what if this is indeed a head and shoulders pattern, signalling a deeper correction ahead? The market will do what it wants, and the truth is revealed only in hindsight. Good traders and investors prepare for both outcomes.
My broader view is that the real economic pain begins to show itself around September or October, when the cumulative impact of tariffs, deteriorating trade flows, and policy missteps starts to weigh more heavily. That’s part of why I believe we’re still in a bull phase for Bitcoin — though likely the final one before liquidity tightens more decisively.
Let me be clear: I do not regard Bitcoin as digital gold. It may be a reasonable proxy for global liquidity, but it is not a risk-off asset. It is not a store of value in the same sense as gold, and I believe those who treat it as such are in for a rude awakening. Yes, it has captured the imagination — and wallets — of a certain subset of investors who see it as a monetary alternative. But in a true bear market, when risk assets come under real pressure, I expect Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex to fall alongside equities and other speculative instruments.
That will be the moment when the cost of four years of reckless spending, monetary debasement, and centralised overreach is fully realised. The lesson, as always, will be the same: liquidity is a tide, and when it goes out, only real assets endure. For many, it may soon be time to consider harvesting gains and rotating into genuine risk-off positions — not narratives, not hope — but assets with intrinsic value, such as physical gold.
This is not investment advice. Do your own research. I could be entirely wrong. And please forgive the rough chart — it’s amateur work.
Bearish FinTech 50 DMA < 200 DMAduring the bear markets I lived through 87,2K, 2008-2010 I had to learn how to detect bear market conditions, the easiest and simplest if when the 50 EMA crashes down through the 200 EMA.
Another indicator of a Bear Market is a flight to quality gold and silver... check that's 2.
We have a head and Shoulders, price is falling down and possibly through the 50 EMA. H & S is #3
The blue line is the 100 DMA (I use DMA or EMA) if this crashes through the 200 that's even more bearish.
This happening means we should not be long, all things being equal I think we will go down.
Jesus Coin (JESUS) Price Jumps Over 50% in a Week Jesus Coin (JESUS) has experienced notable price action this week, rising by 52.90% in the past seven days. At the time of writing, the token trades at $0.00000006999. Despite a -7.61% drop in the past 24 hours, the coin maintains momentum, supported by increased attention within its community.
The project holds a market capitalization of approximately $7.19 million, positioning it at rank #1101 in the crypto market. Daily trading volume has declined to $110.11K, showing a 61.50% drop, signaling reduced short-term interest despite recent price movements.
Jesus Coin was created as a decentralized, community-led initiative aimed at promoting generosity and faith-based values in crypto. It brands itself as an “anti-meme coin,” built to counter dishonest projects and scams that have plagued the space.
Unlike typical crypto ventures, Jesus Coin launched without a team allocation and functions entirely through community efforts. Its mission focuses on inspiring generosity and cultural transformation through blockchain.
From a technical perspective, Jesus Coin shows signs of renewed bullish activity after a prolonged consolidation phase. The 3-day candlestick chart highlights a recent push attempt. JESUS has also moved above the 50-day moving average (0.00000006201), suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, it remains below the 200-day moving average, indicating that long-term sentiment has not yet flipped.
The token’s trading range remains tight, with historical support near 0.0000000513 and recent highs around 0.000000071. Trading volume remains modest, implying cautious interest from market participants.
With strong community involvement and recent technical signals, Jesus Coin may continue to draw attention. Watch for sustained volume and price movement above resistance for further confirmation of trend direction.
$AVAX LONG/SPOT CRYPTOCAP:AVAX 1D - SPOT/PERP.
Price formation keeps upward vector.
The designated zone of interest (POI 1W) may provide favorable conditions for forming long/spot positions.
Targets: $21.03, $23.46, $25.12, $26.54, $28.78
The Hidden Correlation Between Dollar Strength and crypto marketHello Traders 🐺
Maybe you’ve asked yourself this question: Why is it so hard to figure out exactly when the financial markets are about to pump or crash?
And how can I predict and prepare before it actually happens?
Because usually, people realize we’re in a bull or bear market when it’s already too late — when we’re halfway through the move. And as you probably know, the biggest opportunities always happen at the bottom, like now — when everyone is bearish, scared of recession, or talking about trade wars (which in my opinion is just a distraction).
If you know even a little about economics, you’d realize that most policies are made to strengthen markets — not to destroy them.
So why did we experience things like recessions or events like Black Monday?
The answer is simple: Recession is a normal and even healthy part of any economy. It resets prices, clears bubbles, and restores balance. Imagine a world where prices just keep going up forever... at some point, your purchasing power disappears. Inflation, in moderation, is part of a healthy economy — but when it turns into hyperinflation, it becomes a silent thief.
📊 But Why Am I Saying All This?
Because today, we’re going to look at the correlation between the DXY (Dollar Index) and TOTAL2 (Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC).
You might be wondering:
Why TOTAL2? Why not just talk about BTC?
If you’ve been following my ideas, you know I’ve been calling for an upcoming Altcoin Season.
Right now, we’re in the BTC phase. BTC is doing its thing — and everyone knows it’s likely to go higher. There’s no need to overhype the obvious.
But the real story is: while BTC is dominating, altcoins are bleeding — most of them are sitting at their ATL levels against BTC. That’s where the real opportunity is.
💵 Why the DXY?
If you read my previous DXY idea, you already know that deflationary assets like BTC and GOLD move inversely to the Dollar.
Every time we enter a QT cycle (a.k.a. Dollar Season), we see liquidity being drained, inflation being fought off, and markets getting crushed.
But here’s the alpha:
Every time the DXY crashes → crypto explodes.
Especially altcoins — because they are inherently riskier than BTC and react more aggressively to new liquidity entering the system.
Let me break it down 👇
DXY crash in 2020 → Altseason
DXY rise in may 2021 → Major crypto crash
Now → DXY breaking below a critical support line... 👀
If this breakdown holds and the Fed confirms the shift to a QE-friendly policy, we’re likely heading toward another massive crypto bull market.
Also — if you zoom in, there’s a clear bull flag forming on TOTAL2.
If DXY shows more weakness and Fed starts cutting rates, this flag might explode to the upside.
I hope you enjoyed this idea and as always, never forget our golden rule:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable — but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺KIU_COIN🐺
$ONDO ONDO LONGLSE:ONDO 4H - LONG
Updating the lower boundary of the local range forms conditions for opening long positions.
The scenario is relevant if the demand is confirmed in the marked zone.
Targets: $0.9277, $0.9894, $1.0799
TP/SL are presented on the chart.
Friday Closeout | TA & Macro Recap + ES1! Game Plan📈 Chart Overview
Current Price: 5,312.75
Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend.
📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis
SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward.
SMA 50 (light blue) : ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross)
SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal.
Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support.
This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal.
📈 RSI (14 Close)
Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA)
Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness.
Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating.
📈 MACD (12, 26, 9)
MACD Line: -132.13
Signal Line: -125.86
Histogram: +6.27 and rising
Interpretation:
MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving.
Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest
Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend.
🧨 Volatility Outlook
TVC:VIX falls well within the 'Risk off Zone'.
TVC:VIX spiked to 52.33 before receding to its current 29.65
📈 Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation:
In high TVC:VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future.
TVC:DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries TVC:US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated.
I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions.
Bearish Possibilities:
Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable.
Failures on trade talks with major trading partners.
Bullish Possibilities:
Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely.
Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners.
Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely.
Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in TVC:US10Y yields.
📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule
Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week
Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods
Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations
Notable Earnings Calendar:
Verizon NYSE:VZ - Tuesday
Lockhead NYSE:LMT - Tuesday
Ratheon NYSE:RTX - Tuesday
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA - Tuesday
Boeing NYSE:BA - Wednesday
Google NASDAQ:GOOG - Thursday
Intel NASDAQ:INTC - Thursday
Pepsi NASDAQ:PEP - Thursday
Proctor and Gamble NYSE:PG - Thursday
T-Mobile NASDAQ:TMUS - Thursday
🔍 Summary
🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'.
🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength.
🧠 Tactics:
Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment.
Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for:
Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's
If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50).
If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.
$OTHERS is the correction over? All is in the Chart!Check the yellow arrows and lines— CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS (all altcoins excluding the top 10) is following a correction pattern similar to CRYPTOCAP:BTC and the $SPX500.
📉 On the 1W timeframe, the MACD is overbought and currently in the middle of a correction. This typically signals a bounce in the coming weeks.
🕰️ If we compare this to the previous cycle, it appears we're at the early stage of what could become an altseason. Back then, it took around 10 weeks after this point to see the real breakout.
🗓️ Based on that, I forecast:
May: first major pump
July–August: consolidation
September–October: final leg up
Despite recent announcements from Trump, the 1W chart has not significantly changed—everything is progressing as expected.
📊 You can verify this macro alignment with my other analyses:
🔗 SPX500 (trendline shows bottom around Sept 2025 at 4700):
🔗 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL (crypto market macro view):
🔗 CRYPTOCAP:BTC (warning posted on Feb 5, 2025):
📈 Everything is aligning—traditional markets, Bitcoin, and altcoins.
ECB lowers rates, Euro edges higherThe euro is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1369, up 0.09% on the day.
The ECB lowered its deposit facility rate on Thursday by a quarter-point, bring the rate to 2.25%. This marked the seventh rate cut since the ECB started its easing cycle in June 2024 and interest rates are now at their lowest since December 2022. The markets had expected the rate cut and the euro showed limited movement in response to the move.
The ECB's rate cut was largely a response to the chaos around US tariff policy. US President Donald Trump has sharply attacked the EU over its trade policy and slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US. The EU retaliated with counter-tariffs but suspended those measures for 90 days after Trump suspended a second round of tariffs on EU goods. The sides are negoatiating but the US has threatened new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and the EU-US trade war could escalate in the coming weeks.
The euro has benefited so far from the escalating trade tensions, as hit 1.1476 last week, its highest level since February 2022. The US dollar has sustained sharp losses against the major currencies as investors look for safer shores in the midst of the turmoil in the financial markets.
The ECB statement said that the inflation continues to ease but expressed concern over worsening trade tensions which have muddied the economic outlook. ECB President Lagarde said in her follow-up press conference that "downside risks to economic growth have increased" which would likely impact on exports, investment and consumption.
The Federal Reserve is prepared to lower rates if necesary but the markets have priced in a hold at 90% the May 7 meeting according to CME Fedwatch. A cut in June is much more likely, with a 60% probability.
