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Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for March 27, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims GBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, having rebounded from the previous session's losses to reach 1.2910 during Thursday's Asian trading session. The pair is strengthening as the US dollar remains under pressure from lower Treasury yields: 2-year and 10-year yields are at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Market participants are monitoring upcoming US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims and the final Q4 annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, scheduled for release later today. However, GBP/USD gains may be constrained due to an escalation in risk-off sentiment and a rise in US trade policy. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25 per cent tariffs on car imports, which will come into effect on April 2, with duty collection starting the following day. However, a one-month delay will be granted for imports of auto parts. This has led to heightened global trade tensions and added uncertainty to the markets. On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem issued a statement that was critical of the tariff policy, joining other Federal Reserve chiefs in expressing concerns. Musalem warned that the measures are disrupting the US economy, increasing uncertainty and pushing inflation higher. The release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February showed inflation falling faster than expected, leading to a weakening of the Pound Sterling (GBP). The lower CPI reading has led to speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may be leaning towards easing monetary policy. The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.9% forecast and down from January's 3.0%. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile goods, rose by 3.5%, below the anticipated 3.6% and the previous reading of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI increased by 0.4%, following a 0.1% decline in January, falling short of the 0.5% forecast. Inflation in the services sector, a key focus area for the Bank of England, remained steady at 5%. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.29000, SL 1.29700, TP 1.28100
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Is There the Best Time to Trade Forex in the UK?Is There the Best Time to Trade Forex in the UK? Grasping the nuances of forex market hours is essential for traders aiming to optimise their strategies. Operating continuously from Sunday evening to Friday night, the currency market accommodates participants across various time zones without being anchored to a singular physical location. For those in the UK, recognising when to engage can dramatically influence outcomes. This FXOpen article discusses the pivotal currency trading sessions that may be optimal for UK-based traders. Understanding Forex Market Hours Understanding currency exchange market hours is crucial for anyone involved in the global foreign exchange market. Although you may already know this, let us remind you. The forex market operates on a 24/5 basis, opening during weekdays and closing at weekends. This round-the-clock trading is possible because it’s not tied to a physical location; instead, it relies on a decentralised network of banks, businesses, and individuals exchanging currencies across different time zones. For traders in the UK, knowing the best forex trading hours can be key to effective trading. The currency market is broadly divided into four main 9-hour-long windows, each starting at different times to cater to traders across the globe. The forex session times UK traders need to be aware of are: - Sydney Session: 9:00 PM GMT - 6:00 AM GMT - Tokyo Session: 11:00 PM GMT - 8:00 AM GMT - London Session: 8:00 AM GMT - 5:00 PM GMT - New York Session: 1:00 PM GMT - 10:00 PM GMT Note that during British Summer Time (BST), some of these times are shifted forward by one hour. These forex market trading times are essential to know, as they indicate when liquidity and volatility are likely to increase, potentially offering favourable market conditions. The Optimal Times to Trade Forex in the UK In navigating currency trading, UK-based traders should be aware of two key sessions: London and New York. These periods are optimal forex market hours in the UK, offering greater volumes, volatility, and liquidity. They’re also the periods that see the most releases for three of the major economies: the UK, Eurozone, and the US. The core forex trading times in the UK are anchored around the London session, which is central to global forex market operations due to London's key position in the financial world. The London trading session time in the UK commences at 8:00 AM GMT (winter time). This period, ending at 5:00 PM GMT (winter time), is pivotal as it accounts for roughly half of the forex transactions globally, making it a prime trading time due to the high liquidity and the potential for more pronounced price movements. Likewise, the London-New York trading session time in the UK can be especially advantageous. It’s a crucial overlapping window occurring from 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM GMT (winter time), offering an avenue for traders seeking to maximise their potential returns due to the surge in activity and high-profile economic releases from the US. During this window, the US stock market opens at 2:30 PM GMT. This secondary opening can also have a notable effect on US dollar-based pairs. Economic Releases and the Impact on Trading Times for UK Traders Economic releases and central bank announcements significantly influence UK forex trading times, often driving prices higher or lower. Many UK economic releases—affecting GBP currency pairs—are scheduled around 7:00 AM GMT. This timing offers traders opportunities to engage in trends post-release during the early hours of the London open. However, some UK data and plenty of Eurozone data are released between 8:00 AM GMT and 10:00 AM GMT, periods typically characterised by increased liquidity and volatility, providing fertile ground for traders. Likewise, many high-profile US economic announcements—non-farm payrolls, inflation statistics and employment data— are made between 1:00 PM GMT and 3:00 PM GMT. Given the US dollar's dominance on the world stage, these releases can present significant trading opportunities. Although activity tends to quiet down after London closes, the late hours of the New York session still offer potential entries, albeit with generally lower volatility and volume. Notably, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions are announced at 7:00 PM GMT with a press conference held after that can cause outsized price movements. The same can be said for the Bank of England and European Central Bank’s interest rate decisions at 12:00 PM GMT and 1:15 PM GMT, respectively, and their subsequent press conferences. The Worst Time to Trade Forex in the UK The worst times to trade forex in the UK often occur after 8:00 PM GMT, during the tail end of New York’s hours, when liquidity and volume significantly decrease. This reduction in activity can lead to less favourable trading conditions, including wider spreads and slower execution times. Additionally, while the Asian session forex time in the UK, partially overlapping with the Sydney session, runs from 11:00 PM to 8:00 AM GMT, it presents challenges for UK traders. Despite offering trading opportunities, especially in Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar-based pairs, the volumes during this period are substantially lower compared to the London and New York sessions. The Tokyo session forex time in the UK accounts for particularly unsociable hours anyway, so many UK traders are unlikely to engage in currency trading during this period. Trading the London Session: A Strategy The Asian-London Breakout Strategy leverages the unique dynamics between the calmer Asian session and the volatile London session. It involves setting buy/sell stop orders at the high and low points of the Asian period’s range, aiming to capture movements as London opens at 8:00 AM GMT. With stop-loss orders placed above or below the range and a strategic approach to take profit – either at the end of the London session or by trailing a stop loss during the day – traders can potentially capitalise on the surge in activity. To delve deeper into this strategy and other session-based setups, consider exploring FXOpen’s 3-session trading system article. The Bottom Line Understanding forex trading hours and leveraging optimal times are pivotal for achieving favourable outcomes in currency trading. Luckily, UK-based traders are well placed to take advantage of the many opportunities the currency market presents, given their ability to trade both the London and New York sessions. For UK traders seeking to navigate the complexities of markets with a trusted broker, opening an FXOpen account can provide all of the tools and insights necessary for effective trading. FAQs When Do the Forex Markets Open in the UK? Forex opening times in the UK start at 8:00 AM GMT (winter time) and at 7:00 AM GMT (summer time) when the London session begins, marking the start of significant trading activity due to London's central role in the global currency arena. What Time Does the Forex Market Open on Sunday in the UK? The forex market opens on Sunday at 9:00 PM GMT (winter time) and at 10:00 PM GMT (summer time) in the UK, coinciding with Sydney’s opening and marking the beginning of the trading week. What Time Does the Forex Market Close on Friday in the UK? The forex market closes at 10:00 PM GMT (winter time) and at 9:00 PM GMT (summer time) on Friday in the UK, concluding with the end of the New York session and wrapping up the trading week. Can You Trade Forex on Weekends? Currency trading on weekends is not possible as the market is closed. Trading resumes with the opening of the Sydney session on Sunday at 9:00 PM GMT (winter time) and at 10:00 PM GMT (summer time). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
World gold prices rise again due to demand for safe assetsGold prices rose again on Friday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs next week, which could fuel inflation, prompting many investors to turn to gold as a hedge against inflation. Gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,029.30. "Investors are concerned about the global situation, especially U.S. policies," said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner at CPM Group. "They are buying gold as an alternative asset because they fear the U.S. government could push the global economy into recession." Amid geopolitical tensions, Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, following discussions between Russia and the U.S. on a proposal for a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea. Washington hopes this will pave the way for broader peace talks. Gold is widely seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty. It has risen more than 15% this year, hitting a record $3,057.21 an ounce on March 20. President Trump said not all of the threatened tariffs would be implemented from April 2, and some countries could be exempted. The US government is considering a two-phase tariff schedule next week, according to the Financial Times. Trump's tax policies are expected to put pressure on economic growth, escalate trade tensions and push up inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
2
Gold Analysis March 26Candle D still shows that the battle between buyers and sellers has not yet been defeated. 3033 Plays an important role in the current downtrend structure. H4 Closes above the 3033 zone, officially breaking the wave and giving priority to the BUY side. Gold is pushing up and wants to break the dynamic resistance of 3027. Closes above 3027, gold is heading towards 3033-3035. If it does not break this zone, you can SELL to 3005 and if the US breaks 3005, hold to 2983. If the 3033 zone is broken, wait for BUY to break 3033, the daily target is towards 3045.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2
xrp format rsi and macd"The XRP/USD pair is currently exhibiting signs that may indicate a potential bullish reversal.​ Technical Analysis: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is at 49.28, suggesting neutral momentum. A move above 50 could signal strengthening bullish momentum.​ Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is at -0.00453, positioned above the signal line at -0.01699. Despite both values being negative, this crossover may indicate a weakening bearish trend and a potential shift towards bullish momentum.​ Trade Setup: Entry Point: Consider entering a long position if the RSI crosses above 50, confirming bullish momentum.​ Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below recent support levels to manage risk effectively.​ Take Profit: Identify key resistance levels as potential take profit targets, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio.​ Time Frame: This analysis is based on the daily chart, suggesting a medium-term trade horizon.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by michael_medrano2001
More upside opportunity?Due to the ongoing trade wars and rising geopolitical tensions; already existing and uprising between the US and Yemen this fundamentally provides more bullish opportunity for the safe-haven metal. The current price action also supports the bullish intentions with a Bullish breakout of the bullish flag chart pattern with price finding support at the resistance of the bearish trend line. Although the breakout has been with consolidation with price sweeping both buy side and sell side liquidities, which has resulted in the formation of an ascending triangle which may still require a few downward and upward price movements to fully take effect. Remember, trading is difficult because of loss of capital. Only a proper risk management can guard against this. -
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by oyemyk
Everyone’s scared of booze stocks… Why I’m still buyingThis analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. One of the things I find interesting is that a lot of people say “why do you like booze stocks so much Eden” and yet many of these same people are at the pub, or buying En primeur from Glengarry Wines. The short answer is — I like stocks that trade at multi-year lows with a predictable product. There is a fairly hysterical article in the FT wondering “Is alcohol the new tobacco?” To which I say, well, tobacco companies are absolute cash machines. The best performing stock in the S&P, of all time, to the best of my knowledge, is Altria. I know investing in tobacco is not fashionable (and yet, how many people do you see on the street vaping?). I know it goes against “ESG” and the scolds at public health slap you on the hand and say “gosh that is very bad for you!”. But the truth is that tobacco does generate tremendous profits — the net income margin for British American Tobacco is 39.1%. For those in the back, that’s for every $1 you sell, you make 39.1 cents of profit. There’s very few businesses with such fantastic operating margins — Visa’s net income margin is 56%. If I owned only one stock forever, I guess it’d probably be Visa. My point is — waving your hands about and saying “oh no! Tobacco!” belies the economics of it. The tobacco companies are doing very well, thank you very much. It will come as no surprise that cigarette smoking has been replaced by vaping. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, news of nicotine’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. This is not saying to invest in tobacco stocks, but my point is that human habits don’t change. They merely evolve, but the song remains the same. To be fair — alcohol consumption is declining. But it isn’t declining at a rate that calls for any kind of alarm. Most of the companies I follow — Brown Forman, Diageo, Constellation, etc, reported largely flat sales. It’s also instructive to look to history. In other words — alcohol consumption has largely normalised in the last few decades. There’s still cause for worry — I think wine is one area of concern, and Cognac is another — both industries need to think about how they introduce younger drinkers to their product. This is why I largely shy away from wine (and why Constellation is selling their wine portfolio). “Evergreens” like Guinness (a Diageo brand) and Jack Daniel’s (a Brown-Forman brand) are predictable. Once again — a bunch of ratios for ya’ll: Brown-Forman: 18x fwd earnings Pernod: 12x fwd earnings Constellation Brands: 13.25x fwd earnings And so on… these stocks trade like they are discount retailers in biddlybunk Ohio. They are not. There’s the issue. There’s where value lies. Cigarettes never went away; they became vapes. In my opinion, I don’t see booze going away anytime soon either.
NYSE:MO
by BlackBull_Markets
CHF/JPY Triangle Pattern (27.3.25)The CHF/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 169.06 2nd Support – 168.46 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
3
Gold Market Analysis: Range-Bound Amid Mixed SignalsRecent Price Action: Gold traded in a tight range yesterday, reflecting the current lack of strong fundamental catalysts. The market remains cautious as the Fed grapples with the aftereffects of its aggressive hiking cycle. While rate cuts would typically boost gold, the Fed—and dollar-backed capital—is keen to prevent a sharp USD decline, keeping the DXY subdued near recent lows. Yesterday’s Strategy: We executed short positions near 3028 during both Asian and US sessions, capitalizing on the repeated rejection at this level. The absence of alternatives made this a logical approach. Currently, gold remains range-bound with no clear directional bias, as conflicting fundamentals (e.g., market expectations for Fed cuts vs. the Fed’s reluctance) create stalemate conditions. Technical Outlook: 4H Chart: Indicators (Stochastic, MACD) are neutral/dull, while Bollinger Bands contraction (3035–3005 range) signals consolidation. Narrowing price action suggests an impending minor breakout. Daily Chart: Stochastic shows a bearish crossover, but price resilience and upward-sloping Bollinger Bands (support at 2955) limit downside momentum. However, the divergence between price and indicators (RSI/MACD) hints at a potential correction ahead. Today’s Plan: Trade the 3035–3005 range with a "buy low, sell high" approach. Monitor for a breakout as volatility compresses. Key Watch: A decisive close outside 3035/3005 may signal the next short-term trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Oxtradegpt
2
aily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 27th March 2024)Bias: No Bias USD News(Red Folder): -Final GDP q/q -Unemployment Claims Analysis: -Consolidation in 4hr time frame -Looking for price to respect the high & low on the 4hr structure before the GDP news -Potential BUY/SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe -Pivot point: 3000,3040 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by HM_fxtrading
Gold Outlook – Steady Range Before Key Data Hits🟡 Market Context: Gold has been trading in a steady range since the start of the week, with no significant breakout or momentum shift observed. Today’s session is expected to remain quiet, as there are no major economic events scheduled. All eyes are on the Thursday GDP release and Friday’s PCE inflation data from the US — both of which are likely to determine the direction for gold into the end of the month and quarter. 📆 Key Data to Watch: Thursday: US Quarterly GDP Friday: US PCE Price Index (Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) These events are considered high-impact catalysts that may trigger sharp moves in gold, especially if surprises occur. 🔍 Technical Structure: Price continues to respect key support and resistance zones identified earlier this week. There is no confirmed breakout yet, so the strategy remains range-based: ➡️ Trade the levels. Watch for reaction signals at extremes. ➡️ Wait for clearer momentum following the macro releases. 🧭 Key Price Levels: 🔺 Resistance: 3,010 – 3,036 – 3,046 – 3,057 🔻 Support: 3,010 – 3,001 – 2,988 🎯 Trade Plan – 26/03 BUY ZONE: 2988 – 2986 SL: 2982 TP: 2992 – 2996 – 3000 – 3004 – 3008 – 3015 SELL ZONE: 3045 – 3047 SL: 3051 TP: 3042 – 3038 – 3034 – 3030 – 3026 – 3020 🧠 Final Notes: The market remains in accumulation mode ahead of key US data. No need to rush — protect your capital, wait for clean setups, and let the market reveal its hand. — AD | Money Market Flow
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
2
EUR/USD Buy Zone: Potential Reversal Above Key Support### **EUR/USD: Bearish Momentum Persists Amid Macro Uncertainty** Key Technical Levels - Support: 1.07400 - Resistance: 1.085 Market Drivers 📉 Weak Eurozone Fundamentals – France-Germany yield spreads continue to widen, signaling further downside risks for the Euro. 🏦 ECB Policy Outlook Chief Economist Philip Lane suggests potential monetary easing reinforcing a dovish stance. 🌍 Geopolitical Risks – Uncertainty around potential tariff hikes from the U.S. could drive market volatility. 📊 **Strategic Approach:** Monitor key levels closely and align with market momentum.
Long
by Dr_Pipsfund
4
BNB before correction?Hello everyone, let's look at the 1D BNB to USD chart, in this situation we can see how the price came out of the downtrend line, however, here it is worth observing the EMA Cross 50 and 200 indicator, which shows a fight to maintain the uptrend. Please take into account the STOCH indicator, which shows a longer movement at the upper limit of the range, which may confirm the current rebound and give a deeper correction, however, here it is important for the price to stay above the level of the last low. Let's start by defining the goals for the near future, which the price must face: T1 = 646 USD T2 = 684 USD Т3 = 732 USD Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to fall: SL1 = 612 USD SL2 = 595 USD SL3 = 560 USD SL4 = 534 USD
BINANCE:BNBUSDShort
by cryptodailyuk
Upward trend may continueComprehensive Market and Investment Analysis of BTCUSD - March 2025 The Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,988, representing a 0.54% decrease from the previous day's closing price. Over the past year, its price has ranged from $49,121 to $109,115. Currently, it is trading below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average. Analysts predict that by the end of 2025, the price could reach between $145,000 and $249,000 based on CryptoQuant's forecasts. Following the current sideways trend, a significant move is anticipated, which will determine future investment opportunities. Market Situation and Fundamental Factors The Bitcoin's current price is $86,988, marking a 0.54% decline from the previous day's close. The daily trading range was between $85,929 and $88,254, indicating relatively low volatility of 2.7%. The total market capitalization is $1.72 trillion, highlighting Bitcoin's significant market presence. Fundamental factors include the presence of institutional investors and global macroeconomic conditions. According to CryptoQuant's analysis, the growth in realized capitalization and changes in market multiples are key indicators. Bitcoin's value continues to be heavily influenced by investor confidence, as evidenced by the January Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) metric, which showed strong market confidence at higher price levels. Daily trading volume is around $28.55 billion, lower than the average daily volume of $45.34 billion. This reduced liquidity could lead to larger price movements in the near future, especially if significant market events occur. Price Stability and Institutional Presence Bitcoin has remained relatively stable over the past 24 hours, with a slight downward trend. It traded above $88,000 in the morning before gradually declining to around $86,000 in the afternoon. This movement may indicate a temporary correction phase in the previous upward trend. In evaluating Bitcoin's fundamentals, institutional adoption is becoming increasingly important and could significantly increase in 2025 if there is a pro-crypto U.S. government. Strong capital inflows are expected primarily from professional investors, which could further stabilize prices at higher levels. Technical Analysis The price is currently below the 50-day exponential moving average ($89,996.66) but above the 200-day moving average ($85,217.02). This reflects a mix of medium-term weakness and long-term strength from a technical perspective. Chart Patterns and Indicators A symmetrical triangle formation identified in previous analyses suggested a sideways trend, which was reinforced by the maximum volume profile visible range (VPVR). This formation often precedes a significant breakout, which could occur in either direction. On the daily chart, the recent break above the 10-day EMA has so far resulted in sideways movement. This consolidation phase often precedes the continuation or reversal of a trend, making it crucial to monitor closely. The price movement over the past few days has been within a relatively narrow range, indicating decreasing volatility. This is often a precursor to a larger breakout, especially under current market conditions when significant expectations surround Bitcoin's future performance. Investment Outlook According to scenarios outlined by CryptoQuant in January, Bitcoin's price could reach three different levels by the end of 2025: Optimistic Scenario: $249,000 - This assumes strong institutional adoption and a pro-crypto regulatory environment, with a sixfold market multiple. Moderate Scenario: $197,000 - This reflects a moderately bullish market climate. Conservative Scenario: $145,000 - This assumes Bitcoin's resilience and sustained investor interest despite macroeconomic challenges. Risks and Opportunities Risks associated with investing in Bitcoin include regulatory uncertainties, market volatility, and the pace of technological developments. However, opportunities include growing institutional acceptance, its role as an inflation hedge, and broader adoption as a digital currency. The current price ($86,988) and the most conservative CryptoQuant forecast ($145,000) suggest a potential increase of about 67%, while the optimistic scenario could represent a 186% increase by the end of the year. Sectoral Analysis Bitcoin continues to play a dominant role in the cryptocurrency sector with a market capitalization of $1.72 trillion. This dominance reflects institutional investors' interest, who often choose Bitcoin as their first cryptocurrency investment due to its liquidity and market acceptance. Bitcoin's Position in the Crypto Ecosystem Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" remains pivotal and is expected to strengthen further in 2025. Market developments, such as the impact of halving events and the growing popularity of ETFs, could increase demand for Bitcoin. The annual price range ($49,121 to $109,115) shows that Bitcoin still exhibits significant volatility. However, trading above the moving averages indicates long-term strengthening, which could reinforce its sectoral position. Conclusion and Future Outlook Bitcoin's current market situation indicates a consolidation phase, after which a significant price movement is expected. Technical patterns, particularly the symmetrical triangle formation and the position of moving averages, suggest that the market is preparing for a breakout. Fundamental factors, including institutional adoption and regulatory developments, play a crucial role in future price appreciation potential. According to CryptoQuant's forecasts, by the end of 2025, prices could range from $145,000 to $249,000, offering significant investment opportunities from current levels. From an investment perspective, Bitcoin remains an attractive asset class for investors with higher risk appetites, especially in longer-term strategies. The current price consolidation offers an opportunity to build or expand positions, considering both technical and fundamental factors.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by meszaros