Get started

Fundamental Analysis

Altseason and a Weak Dollar — Will History Repeat in 2025?The altseason of 2017 started at the same time as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) began to fall. This likely helped bring more money into the crypto market. In 2020–2021, a similar thing happened: the falling dollar was followed by a strong rise in altcoins. But that time, altseason started closer to the end of the dollar’s decline. A weaker dollar makes risky assets like crypto more attractive. In April 2020, the total crypto market cap was around $218 billion. Today, it’s about $2.63 trillion — around 12 times bigger. However, to start a new altseason now, the market may need a lot more cheap money than in 2020. I’m not sure if the 2025 altseason can be as strong as in the past. Now it seems that the only way to repeat that success is if a big part of the capital moves from Bitcoin into altcoins. This would need a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance. But this brings new questions. After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the ownership structure has changed. Many people now own Bitcoin through investment funds, not directly. These funds may not be very excited to invest in altcoins. What do you think about it? Share your opinion in the comments.
TVC:DXY
by CapitalHustle
USD/CAD(20250418)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the seventh rate cut in the past year, and this decision was unanimous. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3855 Support and resistance levels: 1.3933 1.3904 1.3885 1.3825 1.3807 1.3778 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3855, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3885 If the price breaks through 1.3825, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3807
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Toml1314
1
AUDUSD(20250418)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the seventh rate cut in the past year, and this decision was unanimous. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 0.6369 Support and resistance levels: 0.6430 0.6407 0.6392 0.6346 0.6331 0.6309 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 0.6392, consider buying, the first target price is 0.6407 If the price breaks through 0.6369, consider selling, the first target price is 0.6346
Short
by Toml1314
XRPUSDT – ETF Hype or Exit Liquidity Parade?“If BTC sneezes, XRP gets hospitalized.” 🧠 Market Context Price: $2.07 Resistance Zone: $2.15 – $2.18 Support Zone: $2.00 – $1.88 POC (4H): $2.41 — where leveraged hopes go to die Volume: Fading across 15m and 4H Delta: -363K (15m) – strong seller aggression OI: +578K → rising with price stuck = bait 🔬 Order Flow Breakdown OI up, price flat → classic smart money unloading on retail Strong Delta divergence: buyers being absorbed Heatmap shows stop clusters below $2.00 BTC weakness threatens every bullish setup in altcoins 📰 News Catalysts (Legit, Not Hopium) ETF Speculation Only. ProShares eyeing XRP futures ETF, but no approval or timeline confirmed. SEC Case Still Open. Appeal paused. No clarity. Regulatory uncertainty continues to hang over XRP. Options Data is Bearish. Put/call ratios show downside protection is the market's priority — not upside bets. 📌 Translation: News flow does NOT support a sustainable move higher. ⚔️ Trading Plan Direction: Short Entry Zone: $2.15 – $2.18 Target 1: $2.00 Target 2: $1.88 Stop Loss: $2.25 Leverage: 25x – 50x (adjust for sanity) 🔁 Conditions for Execution XRP fails to break $2.18 on rising OI BTC stays below $84K or loses momentum Volume remains low and delta continues negative ⚠️ BTC: The Elephant in the Room BTC POC at $84.6K OI decreasing while price stalls If BTC breaks down, XRP will not survive the shock — it will lead the dump among majors. TL;DR: “XRP is bait. BTC is the trigger.” 🎭 Final Take from Pôncio “They’re selling dreams of ETFs while quietly preparing stop hunts. Order Flow is screaming exit, not moon. If BTC goes south, XRP follows — fast and ugly.” 📉 Summary Table Signal - Status VPVR Resistance - ✅ Confirmed @ $2.15–2.41 OI Behavior - 🚨 Bullish trap Delta - ❌ Negative and aggressive Volume - ❌ Weak and fading Macro News - ❌ No support for pump BTC Impact - 🧨 High correlation risk 📛 #XRPUSDT #OrderFlow #SmartMoney #CryptoAnalysis #BTCImpact #DeltaDivergence 📉 Trade like the institutions. Or feed them.
Short
by NunoSid
1
SUIUSDT – Liquidity Build-Up or Just a Beautiful Trap?“If you’re long here, you’re not early. You’re just lunch.” 🧠 Institutional Context Strong POC at $2.06 Price consolidating above the value area, with multiple rejections at $2.18–2.22 Open Interest rising while price stalls → leveraged longs stacking = trap in progress Delta staying negative → buyers getting absorbed, not rewarded Volume declining = no real demand, just retail chasing momentum 🔬 Order Flow Breakdown Delta (15min & 4H) shows clear lack of follow-through on buy pressure OI added +600K recently with no breakout = clear liquidity build-up Heatmap reveals liquidation clusters below $2.04, with vacuum down to $1.88 BTC sitting on a cliff — a flush there takes everything with it 🎯 Trading Plan Direction: Short Entry: $2.18 – $2.22 Target 1: $2.04 Target 2: $1.88 Stop Loss: $2.33 Leverage: 25x – 50x Trigger conditions: – BTC drops below $84K – SUI fails to break $2.22 on rising OI and negative Delta – Volume remains dry 🧨 Final Thoughts from Pôncio “This isn’t strength. It’s a funeral procession with confetti.” Everyone’s bullish. Everyone’s positioned. Everyone’s about to get slapped. Summary: Smart money is already out. Retail’s stuck buying into resistance. And when this drops, it won’t bounce — it’ll vanish. 📉 #SUIUSDT #CryptoFutures #OrderFlow #SmartMoney #DeltaMatters 📛 Trade like a sociopath. Or fund someone who does.
Short
by NunoSid
1
NEIROUSDT → Countertrend momentum. Is the reversal close?BINANCE:NEIROUSDT.P is one of not many coins that is growing. But the only disadvantage is that the coin is at the bottom. Most likely it is forming a set of liquidity before continuing to fall. NEIRO is strengthening and heading towards the resistance of the range while bitcoin continues its correction. Strong resistance and liquidity zone at 0.187 is ahead. Strong gains could be stopped by a false breakout and reversal Just because a coin is at the bottom doesn't mean it has nowhere to fall. Yes, there is. At the moment the price is in the range on the background of a strong downtrend, within which the price does not show signs of life. The previous buyback ended with a strong sell-off. Resistance levels: 0.000187, 0.0002045. Support levels: 0.000169, 0.000154 In the short term, we should expect a false breakout, reversal and price drop to the support of the range. I do not rule out a prolonged struggle in the resistance zone, within which the price may go higher and test the 0.00020 liquidity zone before continuing to fall, within which it may renew the bottom. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
4
UnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price PlummetsUnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price Plummets UnitedHealth shares crashed by nearly 23% yesterday after the healthcare giant reported weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 results: → Earnings per share: actual = $7.20, expected = $7.29 → Revenue: actual = $109.5bn, expected = $111.5bn Technical Analysis of UNH Share Chart As far back as a year ago, we highlighted key support around the $450 level. Yesterday’s negative news caused this support to once again demonstrate its strength by holding back further decline — but will it hold? Taking the price action marked on the chart as a base, we can establish the structure of a descending channel (shown in red), with the price gapping sharply lower into the bottom half of this channel — and yesterday’s candle high (marked with an arrow) suggests that the median line has turned into resistance. Yesterday’s candle closed near its lows, so it is reasonable to assume that bearish pressure may persist (with the aim of testing the lower boundary) — in which case, the $450 support zone, in place since early 2022, could be at risk. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:UNH
by FXOpen
1
Netflix Pops as Earnings Top Estimates. Are Tariffs a Threat?Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX dropped its first-quarter earnings Thursday after market close and the headlines practically wrote themselves: a record net income, an earnings beat, and a 3% implied jump for the stock at the opening bell. All in a market where the Nasdaq is crying in the corner. But as always in markets, the big question isn’t “What happened?”—it’s “What could mess this up?” Ready, set, action: steep tariffs, Donald Trump, and the looming threat of a recession-fueled advertising freeze. Let’s break down the earnings binge before we channel surf over to the risk segment. Spoiler: Netflix is on a roll—but geopolitical static might still mess with the signal. 🎬 Netflix Hits Record Numbers The earnings season is picking up the pace. Netflix’s Q1 revenue hit $10.5 billion, up 13% from last year, with net income jumping to a record $2.9 billion. That’s a cool $600 million more than the same quarter last year—and a massive flex with earnings per share at $6.61. Wall Street was only expecting $5.71 a pop. More importantly, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast to the range of $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion. 💿 How Many New Subs? In case you're hunting for sub numbers moving forward—don’t bother. Netflix said last quarter they’re done reporting them quarterly. They’d rather focus on what “really matters”: revenue, operating margin, and ad growth. In Q4 2024, the final quarter with a subscriber growth update, the company pulled off its biggest user-count gain ever: 19 million new accounts , bringing the global total to over 300 million. Not a bad way to drop the mic and ghost the group chat. 🍿 The Ads Are Working. So Are the Price Hikes. In a move that would usually send churn metrics on a downhill slope, Netflix in January bumped its top-tier plan to $24.99/month in the US. Either that speaks volumes about content quality, or we’ve all collectively accepted that we’ll pay any price to avoid commercials. That said, ads are quietly becoming Netflix’s next big profit lever. After a rocky launch in late 2022, the ad-supported tier is now gaining serious traction. According to estimates, 43% of new US sign-ups in February 2025 opted for the ad-tier plan, up from 40% in January. Netflix expects to nearly double ad revenue this year. 📺 Is Netflix Recession-Proof? With interest rates high relative to four years ago, consumer wallets stretched, and geopolitical tension ratcheting up, Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters had to address the elephant in the earnings room: what happens if people stop spending? Streaming should survive the storm. As he put it, “Entertainment has historically been pretty resilient in tougher economic times.” Executives also noted that during downturns, people tend to seek value. Netflix, with its endless scroll, becomes the budget-friendly indulgence of choice. It’s hard to argue with that when you’re five episodes deep into a true-crime docuseries at 3 a.m. 👀 But Then There’s That Nagging Tariff Thing... While Netflix has so far been insulated from the direct hit of Trump’s revived trade war—most of its costs are content, not commodities—it’s not immune to broader market impact. Tariffs could rattle advertisers, especially if they trigger inflation spikes, slowdowns, or investor anxiety. Ad budgets are notoriously skittish in volatile times, and if there’s one thing advertisers hate more than bad CPMs, it’s uncertainty. Already, there's chatter that major brands are planning to trim digital spending heading into the second half of the year. Translation: if tariffs lead to an economic wobble, Netflix’s ad revenue (and by extension, its bullish earnings story) could face a tougher climb. 📢 Leadership Shuffle: No Drama, Just Strategy In other corporate news, Reed Hastings, the co-founder who brought us DVD mailers, quietly transitioned from executive chair to non-executive chair. It’s more ceremonial than sensational, but it marks a passing of the torch to the current co-CEOs, who clearly have things under control—if this earnings report is any indication. ❤️ Wall Street Loves It—for Now Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX shares are up 10% year to date, which looks especially shiny next to the Nasdaq’s NASDAQ:IXIC 16% drop. While tech has wobbled under tariff pressure and chip-stock drama , Netflix is moving in the opposite direction—proof that profitability, pricing power, and content diversity are still pulling in fresh capital inflows. But don’t get too comfortable. If tariff fears escalate or ad momentum stalls, Netflix may need to prove all over again that it’s more than just a pandemic darling turned pricing juggernaut. 🎥 Final Frame: Chill Now, but Keep One Eye on Macro Netflix’s Q1 numbers were promising — but that was just before Trump’s sweeping tariffs rattled global markets. Added levies, recession risk, and shifting ad budgets could all become plot twists in Netflix’s otherwise upbeat storyline. For now, though, it’s lights, camera, rally. Your turn: Are you still bullish on Netflix, or are Trump’s tariffs and economic drama changing your channel? Let us know what’s on your watchlist.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by TradingView
10
ALCHUSDT → Rally to the liquidity zone. False breakout?BINANCE:ALCHUSDT.P is one of not many coins that looks strong amid the bearish cryptocurrency market. But how long will this energy last? There is strong resistance ahead.... A local pre-breakdown consolidation relative to the intraday level is forming. In general, this is the state of the market, ready to continue its growth within the distribution. Thus, the breakout of 0.1590 resistance will provoke the continuation of growth up to the liquidity zone at 0.177. But already at 0.177, due to the fact that it is an important and strong intermediate resistance level, we should expect a false breakout and a pullback, for example, to 0.159 or 0.5 fibo. Resistance levels: 0.159, 0.177, 0.23 Support levels: 0.1516, 0.5 fibo The distribution is already 53% since the breakout of the consolidation resistance. By the time the resistance is approached, it will be 77% and the market may use up all the accumulated potential, so liquidity above 0.177 is likely to stop the upward rally and turn the coin down. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
5
EURJPY Hovers Near Mid-Range — Buyers Reload Below 162EURJPY DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🎯 🧠 EURJPY Hovers Near Mid-Range — Buyers Aim to Reload Below 162 OVERALL TREND 📈 UPTREND — Price structure is forming higher pivot lows with rejection from the March 2024 lows. Bullish intent is sustained unless structure breaks below 153.16. 🔴RESISTANCE 🔴 175.428 — SELL STOPLOSS | PIVOT HIGH 🔴 175.046 — RESISTANCE (MAJOR) 🔴 174.327 → 172.100 — SELL ORDER RANGE 🔴 166.558 — RESISTANCE (MINOR) 🎯ENTRIES & TARGETS 🎯170.975 — BUY ORDER & TP 4 🎯166.924 — BUY ORDER & TP 3 🎯164.296 — BUY ORDER & TP 2 (MID PIVOT) 🎯160.511 — BUY ORDER & TP 1 🟢SUPPORT 🟢 156.830 — SUPPORT (PROXIMAL) 🟢 156.642 → 154.277 — BUY ORDER RANGE 🟢 154.837 — SUPPORT (MAJOR) 🟢 153.164 — BUY STOPLOSS | PIVOT LOW 📌STRUCTURAL NOTES Price recently stalled beneath the 162.000 zone — consolidation here indicates indecision, but no structural break yet Triple rejection noted between 160.51 → 166.92 range, with multiple higher lows beneath — suggesting accumulation Sellers activated at 172.10 and 174.32 levels, both aligned with visible pivot highs Mid Pivot at 164.296 is a key inflection point — watch for buyer-seller battle here TRADE OUTLOOK 🔍 📈 Long bias maintained above 160.51 and especially if price confirms a bounce from 156.64 or 154.27 zones. 📉 Bearish momentum could resume if price fails to hold above 153.16, breaking the most recent pivot low.\ 🏆 High reward setups exist between 154.27 → 160.51 for re-entry into the broader uptrend 🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION CONSERVATIVE SWING SETUP (Trend-Following): — Buy Entry: 160.51 — TP Levels: 164.29 / 166.92 / 170.97 — SL: 153.16 AGGRESSIVE REVERSAL SCALP: — Buy Zone: 154.27 or 156.64 — TP: 160.51 / 164.29 — SL: Below 153.16 “Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
USDHKD 7.75 and 7.85 PEG RANGE USDHKD is waking up and we're getting early signals of a run toward 7.85 This pair moves in slow motion, but right now the setup is clear as price is grinding higher after bouncing perfectly from our key level. HKMA’s 7.85 weak-side peg is acting like a price magnet when the Fed stays hawkish = fuel for this move Most traders ignore this pair because it’s pegged and low volatility but that’s exactly why it works. Institutions trade this range relentlessly for easy profits. We’re riding the momentum until HKMA steps in.
Long
by AnthonyAaron
SOLUSDT – Final Ascent Before the Abyss?"If this isn’t a trap, then FTX is still solvent." 📈 THE SCENE: Solana’s looking bullish? Sure. So did Luna, Celsius, and Three Arrows before they became bedtime horror stories. Price: Hovering around $134.5, acting like it’s immune to gravity. VPVR: Volume cliff right below — there’s literally nothing until $128… then $118. POC: $132.8 — aka the spot where poor souls entered late, juiced on hopium and influencer tweets. 🧠 THE DATA (a.k.a. The Smoking Gun): OI climbing like it’s 2021, but without the bull market to back it. Delta positive, yet price stagnant = buyers getting absorbed harder than WeWork’s liquidity. Volume slowing = momentum fading = perfect setup for smart money to yank the rug. 📉 MACRO PERSPECTIVE (4H): What do we see? Long buildup without follow-through. Price crawling up while BTC is on thin ice. If Bitcoin sneezes, SOL's lungs collapse. BTC below $84K = SOL going back to $120s faster than CZ deletes a tweet. 🎯 TRADE IDEA: Short from $134.5–135.5 SL: $137.2 (because we respect market makers' yacht fund) TP1: $128 TP2: $118 Leverage? Whatever makes your palms sweat and your broker call your therapist. 💬 FINAL WORDS: “This rally feels about as real as Elizabeth Holmes’ biotech vision. Everyone’s long. Everyone’s confident. Everyone’s... about to get margin called.” Smart money isn’t buying this. They’re selling it... to you. And when they dump, it’s not a correction — it’s a funeral procession with fireworks.
Short
by NunoSid
BTC/USD weekly ChartBitcoin has demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory since January 2023, achieving an impressive 565.42% increase over 749 days Clearly showing a bullish trend in a long-term perspective. On the weekly chart, price has triggered the fair value gap priced at 73k-78k which is also a fair price on the demand and supply curve, presenting favorable conditions for traders. Although Bitcoin's all-time high from January 2025 remains untested, recent price corrections—driven by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariffs and inflation in this recent months may seem a bit shaky for the market, but if you zoom out and look at it at a long term perspective It just looks like a healthy price correction of the market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SOS_101
BTC/USD 1hr ChartInto the hourly chart, there has been a noticeable shift in market structure from bearish to bullish momentum, accompanied by displacement—a clear bullish indicator for short-term price movements. Additionally, liquidity targets are evident, offering opportunities for institutional traders to capitalize on. Beneath this liquidity lies a fair value gap and a bullish order block, which may present an excellent entry point for long or bullish traders targeting the recent liquidity price of 88.951.7 zone with a stop loss just below the swing low at 78,100.
Long
by SOS_101
2
Global Market Overview. Part 3 — Commodities / GoldPrevious context and analysis in the article: Gold isn’t rising — it’s holding its breath Gold has always served as a shock-absorbing safe haven. It’s not a profit-driven asset — it’s a refuge. Every time the market starts humming with anxiety, gold silently braces. Pandemics, geopolitical tension, trade wars, Fed rhetoric, or a poorly timed phrase from the President — they all trigger the same pattern: capital flows into the metal. And 2025 is no exception. With trade escalation between the U.S. and China, demand for gold has surged to new local highs. The panic — skillfully inflated by headlines and press conferences — has done its job. We see gold near its peak, and it might not be done yet. The real question is: why is gold here at all? The answer is simple: gold didn’t climb on its own — it was lifted by a wave of fundamental instability, primarily fueled by U.S. policy. Not a “safe haven” — a forced alternative Investors didn’t move into gold because they suddenly believe in the metal. They moved because they no longer believe in the market. Because what they see on screen is chaos — tariffs, threats, vague statements, disinformation, political pressure on the Fed — and no clear path forward. And when the path disappears, they turn to what isn’t politically tied — or at least appears not to be. Everyone knows gold doesn’t create value. It produces nothing, pays no dividends, funds no innovation. It just sits. And waits. But in uncertain times — that’s exactly what investors want: time and silence. Bitcoin once again out of play Yes, crypto enthusiasts still dream of the day when capital fleeing panic will head not for gold, but for Bitcoin. But in today’s reality — it’s the same old pattern: Big money moves to metal, not blockchain. Institutions still choose an asset with thousands of years of trust, not a volatile instrument that could collapse after one regulatory hearing. Gold at $3,000 — then what? The target zone for gold in this panic cycle could well be $3,000 per ounce. And yes, it’s possible. But only as long as fear lives. The moment clarity returns — especially in the Washington–Beijing storyline — gold will lose its appeal. And it will fall just as fast as it rose. The market isn’t driven by fundamentals — it’s driven by perception. And perception is fickle. Today, everyone runs for shelter. Tomorrow, there’s “positive progress in negotiations” — and capital runs from gold to equities, risk assets, buybacks, and tech. Gold is not a goal. It’s a pit stop. The financial theater under Trump’s direction In my view, we’re not just witnessing a volatile phase. We’re watching a deliberate manipulation. The media noise rose in just a few weeks. The panic feels artificially inflated. Too many coincidences. The stock market crashes. Assets depreciate. And then, just days later, the very same voices behind the headlines begin buying the dip. This isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s an obvious scheme: Panic. Crash. Accumulate. Recovery. Profit. Repeat. Trump and his inner circle aren’t conducting policy — they’re executing a financial operation. And if anyone believes this market will fall forever — they don’t understand how cycles work in the hands of skilled manipulators. Growth is fast. So is the illusion of control. Understand one more thing: As fast as the market rose — it can collapse just as quickly. Especially when that growth is built not on fundamentals, but on fear-fueled liquidity. Once tension breaks, gold will fall first. Followed by stocks — particularly those overpriced during the rush into “safe” alternatives. A market fueled by panic cannot grow for long. It burns like paper. Final thought A deal between the U.S. and China is near. The information noise is too loud to be real. The stock market will again show how chaos can create opportunity. And gold… gold will fade into the background. Because safe havens are only needed while the sirens are sounding. And in this theater — the sirens are already nearing their final act.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by StarTradePro
Global Market Overview. Part 2 — U.S. Stock Indices Start of the series here: Indices? What about the indices? When the market isn’t an economy, but a chessboard riddled with landmines. As much as we’d like to see rationality reflected in index charts, indices are not the economy. They are derivative instruments that track the capital flow into the largest publicly traded companies. In our case — they serve as a mirror of the U.S. stock market. But here’s the thing: There’s one core principle that most analysts love to forget: Once interest rates are cut — the game flips bullish. Cheap money doesn’t lie idle. It flows straight into corporate balance sheets. And one of the first strategies that gets deployed? Buybacks. Share repurchases are the fastest way to inflate stock prices — without changing the product, the market, or even the strategy. It’s an old Wall Street tune. And it’ll play again the moment Jerome Powell gives the signal to cut. Even if he says, “It’s temporary,” the market won’t care — it’ll act automatically. But what if the cut doesn’t come? What if the Fed drags its feet, and U.S.–China relations fully descend into trade war? What if instead of cheap money, we get a recession? That scenario benefits neither the U.S. nor China. Despite political theatrics, the two economies are deeply intertwined. Much more so than their leaders admit. The unspoken threat from China If Beijing wanted, it could cripple the U.S. economy overnight — Nationalizing all American-owned assets on Chinese soil, from Apple’s factories to Nike’s logistics chains. If that happens, dozens of U.S. corporate stocks would be worth less than toilet paper. But China doesn’t make that move. Because blackmail is not the tool of strategists. Beijing thinks long-term. Unlike Washington, it counts consequences. And it knows: with Trump — you can negotiate. You just have to place your pieces right. Want to understand China? Don’t read a report — read a stratagem. If you truly want to grasp how Beijing thinks, forget Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal for a minute. Open “The 36 Stratagems” — an ancient Chinese treatise that teaches how rulers think. Not in terms of strong vs. weak — but when, through whom, and against what. You’ll see why no one’s pressing the red button right now: the game isn’t about quarterly wins — it’s about future control. The economy is built for growth. That’s not ideology — that’s axiomatic. Argue all you want about bubbles, fairness, or who started what. One thing never changes: the global economic model is based on growth. No ministry or central statistical agency can stand before a microphone and say, “We want things to fall.” Markets reflect future expectations. And expectations are, by definition, based on belief in growth. Even crashes are seen as temporary corrections, paving the way for recovery. That’s why people always buy the dip. Not retail. Smart money. Because no panic lasts forever — especially when the whole system is backed by cash. The U.S. controls the market through headlines This logic fuels Washington’s strategy. Today, Powell “waits.” Tomorrow, the White House stirs panic with tariff threats. The day after — surprise! “Constructive dialogue.” And just like that: Markets rally, dollar corrects, headlines flip from “crisis” to “hope.” It’s not coincidence. It’s perception management. Markets crash fast — but they rebound just as fast, once a positive signal drops. Especially when that signal touches the U.S.–China trade front. One line — “talks are progressing” — and by nightfall, S&P 500 is back in the green. Why? Because everyone knows: If there’s de-escalation — it’s not a bounce. It’s a new cycle. The recovery scenario Here’s what happens if negotiations progress: The dollar weakens — capital exits safe havens S&P 500 and Nasdaq spike — driven by tech and buybacks Money flows back into risk assets — especially industrials and retail, exposed to international trade Gold and bonds correct — as fear fades We don’t live in an era of stability. We live in an era of narrative control. This isn’t an economic crisis. This is a crisis of faith in market logic. But the foundation remains: capital seeks growth. And if growth is painted via headlines, buybacks, or a surprise rate cut — the market will believe. Because it has no other choice. In the markets, it’s not about who’s right — It’s about who anticipates the shift in narrative first.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by StarTradePro
Global Market Overview. Part 1: USDXThe Dollar Index is drifting at the key 99.5 mark. This strategic support level, which has held since early 2024, is on the verge of collapsing. Let’s be clear: this isn’t just about the strength of the dollar. What’s at stake is the monetary sovereignty of the United States, caught between inflation, politics, and election-season hysteria. And make no mistake — this has nothing to do with technical analysis. What we’re witnessing is a fundamental fire, and Donald Trump and his administration are fanning the flames. Powell: “Rates remain unchanged.” But for how long? Just days ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered what seemed to be a firm message: “We are in a wait-and-see mode. Cutting rates prematurely could do harm.” “If inflation accelerates, more difficult decisions may follow.” On the surface — classic hawkish rhetoric. But in reality, this isn’t resolve. It’s a delay tactic. Even Powell admits: “The labor market is walking a fine line.” “Economic growth weakened in Q1.” “Business sentiment is deteriorating.” “Tariff policy could lead to stagflation.” “Political pressure is mounting by the week.” The Fed says, “It’s too early to cut rates.” But the market hears something entirely different: “We’re getting close.” Trump applies pressure Ahead of the elections, Trump declares: “If we don’t cut rates now, we’ll lose to China, Europe, and our own markets.” This isn’t just campaign rhetoric. It’s an open challenge to the Fed’s independence. And history already tells us what happens when Trump applies pressure — 2019 rate cuts proved he can break through Powell’s defenses. What the charts are saying The Dollar Index (USDX) is locked in a persistent downward channel. The 103.0 support zone has been broken The 101.17 level remains the final significant support 99.5 is already being tested as a potential sell-off trigger Below that — only air until 98.0 and 97.5 The technical setup confirms a fundamental truth: The market no longer believes in the dollar’s strength. What if the Fed actually cuts rates? If the Fed moves to cut, USDX will break below 99 and enter a systemic phase of weakening. Capital will flow into gold (as if it hasn’t already gone far enough), oil, crypto, and high-yield emerging markets. The United States will lose its competitive edge in monetary policy, and the dollar will slowly cease to function as the global anchor it once was. Powell can talk tough all he wants. The market is no longer listening. The Dollar Index isn’t dropping because rates are already cut — it’s falling because everyone knows it’s just a matter of time. U.S. monetary policy has lost the initiative, and market expectations have taken over. Today, the Fed rate is no longer a tool of control. It’s a signal of approaching capitulation. The question is no longer “Can we hold 99.5?” The real question is: “What happens after it breaks?” Manipulation or strategy? Black swans on a leash Powell’s rate policy, DXY charts, inflation forecasts — all of it loses clarity when the dominant market force is no longer economics, but politics. We live in an era where markets break not from bad data, but from tweets, briefings, and backroom deals — moves that only reveal themselves in the charts after the fact. That’s what makes the current cycle the most toxic in the last 15 years. Markets aren’t just volatile — they’ve become irrational. Trade war: scalpel in a surgeon’s hand or a bat in a brawler’s grip? Tariffs aren’t new. But in Trump’s hands, they’ve evolved — from macroeconomic tools to blunt political weapons. He uses them as battering rams — to force concessions, corner opponents, and set up ideal conditions for insider gains. The market reacts exactly as you’d expect: Tariffs announced — indexes fall Panic ensues — capital flees into dollars and gold Within 48 hours — videos surface of Trump and his allies joking about the “hundreds of billions” they made during the crash This isn’t conspiracy. It’s already triggered official investigations, but everyone knows: the odds of accountability are near zero. And that’s the biggest risk for fundamental analysis today: It’s powerless against narratives crafted behind closed doors. So who’s really running the market? Trump is deliberately deflating the bubble. Loudly. Dramatically. On camera. But the goal isn’t destruction. It’s control. And while Powell fears making a mistake, Trump fears only one thing — losing control of the narrative. The market is no longer a field for rational actors. It has become a battlefield, where officials already understand: You can control more than just money through the market — you can shape public consciousness. How not to lose your footing in this chaos? We’ll break it down in the next part of the Global Market Overview. Stay tuned.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by StarTradePro
Netflix shines amid trade tensionsBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst, ActivTrades Record Results Amid Uncertain Times Netflix has kicked off 2025 with historic figures, showcasing its ability to grow even in a global environment marked by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. In the first quarter, the company reported a 25% increase in earnings per share, reaching $6.61—well above market expectations. Total revenue rose 12.5% year-over-year to $10.543 billion, and the forecast for the second quarter points to $11.035 billion, driven by price increases and sustained subscriber growth. Limited Impact from Tariffs Unlike many companies in the tech and entertainment sectors, Netflix has managed to avoid the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and the resulting market volatility. The company has not detected any direct negative repercussions on its business, reinforcing its status as a defensive option for investors during times of economic turbulence. Advertising: Moderate Growth with Potential While advertising revenues remain modest compared to subscription income, they slightly exceeded expectations this quarter. Monetizing its vast user base through advertising continues to be a priority for 2025. In this regard, the company aims to close the year with revenues between $43.5 and $44.5 billion and an operating margin of 29%. The Power of Original Content The appeal of Netflix’s content library remains its main competitive advantage. Original productions like Adolescence, which has become the third most-watched English-language series in history with 124 million views, have been key to its strong financial performance. International titles such as the French series Ad Vitam and Back in Action starring Cameron Diaz and Jamie Foxx have also contributed. The second quarter also looks promising with the return of iconic franchises like Stranger Things, Wednesday, and the conclusion of Squid Game. Positive Market Reaction Following the earnings release, Netflix shares rose 5.2%, reaching $1,024 per share. Year-to-date, they have gained 9.2%, positioning Netflix as one of the most solid performers in the battered entertainment sector. Technical Analysis Looking at the chart, since July 2022, the stock has moved through various institutional accumulation zones between 2023 and 2024. The current accumulation zone ranges between $810 and the $1,065.50 level reached in February. Previous highs, now acting as support, are around $688.36. The RSI currently sits in the mid-range following the bullish push that began on April 7. Moving average crossovers indicate some indecision, as the stock is testing a former resistance zone. With Easter ahead, it is likely that the stock will remain range-bound through the end of the month and fail to break this resistance level. Currently, the stock is trading in the middle of the accumulation channel. Due to low volume and downward pressure below this midpoint, prices may remain sideways unless renewed interest emerges—something unlikely if Europe, Canada, and others impose new tariffs on tech firms (which they haven’t yet done). The inconsistency of Trump’s tariff policy does not fully address the tax waivers enjoyed by U.S. tech firms, which allow them to avoid sharing profits in Europe. Should these waivers be challenged, companies like Netflix could be affected. The current Point of Control (POC) is well below the two accumulation zones forming the long-term bullish channel, which is somewhat concerning. If regulatory changes occur, the stock could retreat to the lower part of the current accumulation zone—possibly breaking through to its support level. However, if no tariff conflict materializes in the sector, the stock may surge to new highs next quarter due to a strong portfolio structure. Conclusion: Solid Outlook, But Caution Advised Netflix has once again demonstrated its resilience in the face of complex macroeconomic conditions, delivering record financial results in Q1 2025. While other companies in the sector are being hit by tariff-related volatility, Netflix remains steady thanks to its strong content catalog, diversified revenue strategy, and stable global user base. However, technical analysis calls for caution: the stock is facing a key resistance level and could come under bearish pressure if new tech tariffs are introduced by Europe or Canada. In the absence of such risks, the stock has the potential to reach new highs next quarter. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by ActivTrades