WeRide Long IdeaLooks like this might start poking its head up here and give us a bit of a pump. Chinese tech play.
Fundamental Analysis
GOLD GOLD will have to break the 4hr supply roof or sell from that level to break demand floor where i see demand in line with the structure of the market.
A 50-50 environmentThe stock market is focused on the outcome of the tax bill and it has created a 50-50 environment. The bias for the stock market is for move higher.
Litecoin channel breakout on the 12 hour?i'm new to this kinda but i'm studying hard and i'm making good money from a percentage standpoint. just building capital. anyway, yeah, i need help, but i'm not a complete dum dum. is this a good interpretation? any input would be great and if this is dumb just say it because i have very thick skin. loves...means...
AUDJPYAUD/JPY Bond Yield Differential and Carry Trade Analysis ,the current interest rate differential
Bond price will be watched as carry are looking for directional bias on a cautious note .
Australia 10-year bond yield: drops from 4.5 % to 4.391 a drop today
Japan 10-year bond yield: 1.53%
Interest rate differential: 3.00% (AUD yield − JPY yield)
Carry Trade Mechanics
The AUD/JPY carry trade involves borrowing low-yielding Japanese yen (JPY) to invest in higher-yielding Australian dollar (AUD) assets, profiting from the 3% yield spread. For example:
Borrow ¥15 million at 0.1% (JPY rate) and convert to AUD.
Invest in Australian bonds or deposits yielding 4.53%.
Annual profit: ~3% (minus transaction costs and currency fluctuations).
Key Drivers and Risks
Opportunities
Yield Advantage: The 3% differential offers steady returns in low-volatility conditions.
AUD Resilience: Improved global trade sentiment (e.g., US-China tariff reductions ) supports AUD demand.
BoJ Policy: Japan’s gradual monetary tightening (10-year JGB yield at 1.53%, up from 0.99% in 2024 ) has not yet erased the yield gap.
Risks
RBA Rate Cuts: The Reserve Bank of Australia recently cut rates to 3.85% , which could pressure AUD yields downward.
JPY Appreciation: BoJ’s hawkish tilt and safe-haven demand during market stress could strengthen JPY, eroding carry profits.
Currency Volatility: AUD/JPY has faced downward pressure, trading near 93.00 in May 2025 . A 5% JPY rally could wipe out the annual interest gain.
Strategic Considerations for Traders
Factor Impact on Carry Trade
Yield Spread 3% provides baseline return
AUD/JPY Stability Critical to preserving capital
Central Bank Policies Monitor RBA/BoJ for rate changes
Global Trade Dynamics US-China tensions affect AUD
Historical Performance and Outlook
In 2024, similar yield spreads generated 4–5% annual returns for AUD/JPY carry trades .
Forecasts suggest the spread may narrow slightly if the RBA continues easing, but remains attractive compared to other pairs like USD/JPY (4.25% vs. 0.1% ).
Conclusion
The AUD/JPY carry trade remains viable in May 2025, leveraging a 3% yield differential. However, traders must hedge against JPY strength and monitor RBA/BoJ policy shifts. While the strategy offers steady returns in stable markets, currency volatility and central bank actions pose significant risks.
#forex #audjpy
US10Y Technical Breakdown – Post-Moody’s DowngradeMoody’s has downgraded the US credit rating for the first time since 2011, citing rising debt levels and long-term fiscal challenges.
This move sends a clear warning signal about America’s fiscal path and adds fresh uncertainty to markets already navigating interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
Focus on the US 10-Year Treasury Yield as the market’s pulse on sovereign risk, inflation expectations, and future borrowing costs. Tracking its medium-term trend will provide crucial clues on market sentiment and risk appetite.
Medium-Term Market Analysis
(6-12 Months)
1. Structural Fiscal Risks
This downgrade highlights growing concerns over the US debt trajectory and political gridlock around spending and debt ceilings.
It’s less about an immediate crisis, more about long-term sustainability.
2. Rising Yields and Market Volatility
The 10-year Treasury yield could move higher, beyond 4.60% we could see rates possibly testing previous resistance of 4.80% (Jan 2025) or 5.00% (Oct 2023).
Higher yields mean increased borrowing costs, which can pressure interest-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate and add volatility to equities.
3. Federal Reserve’s Tough Balancing Act
With bond yields edging up, the Fed faces a dilemma: delaying cuts further could risk inflation climbing higher.
However, this downgrade raises the likelihood that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer than many investors expect.
4. Dollar and Capital Flow Shifts
While a credit downgrade may initially pressure the US dollar, its safe-haven status remains strong.
Global capital could increasingly look to alternatives like emerging markets or gold, leading to shifts in international financial flows.
Perspective
While Moody’s downgrade is a serious signal, it’s important to consider:
1) Political Leverage: Sometimes, rating agencies’ decisions can influence political negotiations. This downgrade may add pressure on US lawmakers to reach fiscal compromises. It’s a tool, not necessarily a verdict.
2) US Dollar & Debt Demand Resilience: Despite concerns, US Treasury securities remain the world’s primary safe asset, with global demand still robust. This could temper yield spikes and limit fallout.
Some could view the downgrade as “priced in” to a degree, given ongoing debt ceiling battles and past political brinkmanship.
If true, markets may react less dramatically than feared.
Watch
US 10-Year Yield: Key indicator to watch for shifts in risk sentiment and inflation expectations.
Equities: Prepare for increased volatility; consider defensive sectors and value plays.
Credit Markets: Monitor for widening spreads as risk aversion grows.
Policy Signals: Fed communications and US political developments will be critical catalysts.
This Moody’s downgrade isn’t just a headline, it’s a medium-term signal to recalibrate risk and position for a more uncertain fiscal backdrop.
EUR/USD Forming Double Top –Bearish Reversal Toward Key Support?📉 EUR/USD Technical Outlook – Bearish Bias Developing 🔍
🟪 Key Resistance Zone:
📍 1.1350 – 1.1450
Price has tested this resistance zone multiple times, forming a double-top pattern (🔄) within the highlighted circle. This signals buying exhaustion and potential reversal pressure. The recent failure to break above confirms the zone’s strength.
🔴 EMA Confluence:
🧭 50 EMA (red): ~1.1242
🧭 200 EMA (blue): ~1.0961
The price is currently hovering just above the 50 EMA but well above the 200 EMA, which is acting as a dynamic support. The crossover has already occurred, so if price breaks below the 50 EMA decisively, momentum could shift bearish.
🔻 Support Breakdown Risk:
A breakdown from the 1.1200 neckline area (highlighted in red oval) would confirm the double-top pattern 🎯. That opens downside potential toward the strong demand zone below.
🟪 Strong Support Zone:
📍 1.0700 – 1.0800
This area aligns with prior consolidation (March lows) and the 200 EMA, making it a high-probability reversal zone 📈 if the bearish scenario plays out.
📌 Trade Setup Insight:
✅ Bearish confirmation below 1.1200 neckline 📉
🎯 Target: 1.0800 zone
❌ Invalidation: Break above 1.1350 resistance
🔵 Summary:
The chart is hinting at a classic double-top reversal below a key resistance zone. If price breaks the neckline, sellers are likely to gain control, targeting the strong support near the 200 EMA.
📊 Bias: Bearish 👇
📅 Timeframe: Daily
🛑 Risk Management: Watch for fake-outs near neckline; volume confirmation preferred.
PANW – ABCDE Pattern Nearing BreakoutWe're tracking Palo Alto Networks (PANW) on the 5-minute chart, showing a textbook ABCDE triangle formation.
Leg E is nearly complete, with price respecting the rising support line and volume compressing.
We expect a potential breakout above $194.30, with first target at $195.50 (TP1)
and extended targets at $208 and $220, depending on post-earnings momentum.
Setup Highlights:
Symmetrical triangle with well-defined legs
RSI holding between 55–60 → healthy pre-breakout energy
Low volume → potential energy build-up before move
Invalidation if price breaks below $192.70 – setup is off.
"No FOMO. No guessing. Just structure and confirmation."
We don’t chase the move – we position for the breakout.
CoinCoinbase under pressure after surging to $271.
A reported hack and data breach is fueling the sell-off.
Correction targets: $218 and $180.
Watching for further downside — panic could escalate.
Trade Idea : XAUUSD LONG (BUY LIMIT)✅ Trade Bias: Long (Buy)
⸻
🔍 Technical Analysis Summary
📈 Daily Chart
• Trend: Strong uptrend with recent consolidation after an extended move higher.
• MACD: Bullish momentum cooling but still positive — histogram declining slightly.
• RSI: Neutral zone at 55.90, indicating room to the upside before overbought levels.
⏱ 15-Minute Chart
• Trend: Pullback followed by a strong bullish continuation. Price is making higher highs and higher lows.
• MACD: Strong bullish crossover; histogram expanding upward.
• RSI: 62.34 — not yet overbought, signaling continuation potential.
⏱ 3-Minute Chart
• Price Action: Bullish structure holding above short-term moving average.
• MACD: Bullish crossover in early stages with histogram turning positive.
• RSI: 66.22 — nearing overbought but not signaling immediate reversal.
⸻
🌐 Fundamental Context
• Gold is supported by:
• Persisting inflation concerns.
• Geopolitical risk premium.
• Expectations of rate cuts by the Fed in the coming quarters.
There are no immediate bearish catalysts. The macro backdrop favors gold strength, especially as the USD shows some weakness.
⸻
🎯 Trade Setup: Long XAU/USD
• Entry (Buy): 3320.00
• Slight pullback toward previous resistance-turned-support and short-term MA confluence.
• Stop Loss (SL): 3295.00
• Below recent intraday swing low and support zone; protects against false breakout.
• Take Profit (TP): 3370.00
• Previous high extension zone, aligning with momentum continuation projection.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
WLDUSDT – Breakout Confirmed, Eyes on $1.78 and Higher📈🌐 WLDUSDT – Breakout Confirmed, Eyes on $1.78 and Higher 🚀🧠
WLD continues to deliver clean technical setups—and yesterday’s breakout gave us a perfect new entry at the base of this rising channel. This update builds on the same structure I’ve been tracking since early May, now reinforced by both fundamentals and price action.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
📌 New Support Zones:
$1.0633
$1.4185
📌 Next Targets:
🎯 Target 1 – $1.7827
🎯 Target 2 – $2.5275
and then if the markets help we can dream for:
🎯 Target 3 – $3.5074
🎯 Target 4 – $5.0708
🎯 Target 5 – $8.6900
🎯 Target 6 – Upper extension (long-term trajectory toward $16+)
The structure follows the classic market rhythm:
1️⃣ Falling Channel Breakdown
2️⃣ First Re-Entry with Support Reclaim
3️⃣ Perfect Flag Retest → New Rally Begins
🧠 Why WLD?
One of Leading Layer 2 inflows last week across all chains
Expanding ecosystem with real-world apps:
🎮 Humans vs AI
🏨 Hotels Cryptorefills
👤 Human Actions (identity layer tech)
And many many more.
Worldcoin’s biometric World ID system continues expanding in the US and Asia—bringing new users into the WLD economy
⚠️ Note: WLD is a high-volatility, speculative asset. Trade setups like this follow strong momentum patterns—but always manage risk and respect invalidation levels.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
BITCOINBitcoin’s correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), bond yields, and bond prices reflects complex and evolving market dynamics as of 2025:
Bitcoin and DXY Correlation
Bitcoin generally shows a strong inverse correlation with the DXY, with correlation coefficients ranging from about -0.3 to -0.8 over recent years. This means that when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin tends to weaken, and vice versa.
For example, in early 2025, the DXY dropped below 100 for the first time in two years, coinciding with Bitcoin surging over 15%, reflecting increased institutional interest as investors sought alternatives to a weakening dollar.
Historical data shows that significant drops in the DXY (2% or more) have often preceded strong Bitcoin rallies, sometimes pushing prices toward new all-time highs.
However, short-term deviations can occur, such as periods when Bitcoin and the dollar both rise or fall due to unique events or speculative factors.
Bitcoin and Bond Yields Correlation
Bitcoin’s relationship with US Treasury bond yields (especially the 10-year yield) is more nuanced. Rising yields often indicate tighter monetary policy and higher opportunity costs for holding risk assets like Bitcoin, which can pressure its price.
Yet, during inflationary periods or geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin has sometimes risen alongside bond yields as investors seek inflation hedges and portfolio diversification.
The correlation is less stable than with the DXY, influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment.
Bitcoin and Bond Prices Correlation
Since bond prices move inversely to yields, Bitcoin’s correlation with bond prices is also mixed. Falling bond prices (rising yields) can coincide with Bitcoin weakness due to tighter monetary conditions.
However, in times of economic stress or monetary instability, Bitcoin may decouple from bonds, acting as a digital safe haven even when bond prices fall.
Summary Table
Asset Pair Typical Correlation with Bitcoin Notes
Bitcoin vs. DXY Negative (-0.3 to -0.8) Strong inverse relationship; dollar strength pressures Bitcoin
Bitcoin vs. Bond Yields Mixed/Negative Rising yields often bearish, but can coincide with Bitcoin rallies during inflation fears
Bitcoin vs. Bond Prices Mixed Inverse of yields; correlation depends on macro context
Economic and Market Implications
A weakening dollar and rising inflation often drive investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge, fueling price rallies.
Monetary policy tightening and rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, potentially dampening demand.
During geopolitical tensions or systemic risks, Bitcoin may act as a digital safe haven, sometimes moving independently of traditional assets.
Growing institutional adoption strengthens Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset, influencing its correlation dynamics with DXY and bonds.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price movements are closely tied to the US dollar’s strength and bond market dynamics but with nuanced behavior depending on macroeconomic conditions. The inverse correlation with the DXY remains the most consistent relationship, while correlations with bond yields and prices vary with inflation expectations, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. This complexity positions Bitcoin as a unique and increasingly important asset in the global financial ecosystem.
#BITCOIN #DOLLAR #DXY #FX
NZDJPY Will Solid breakout will Formed to short term NZDJPY Technical Outlook:
NZDJPY is currently under pressure, aligning with the broader global bearish trend. On the local scale, the pair is moving within a flat range, showing signs of a pre-downtrend consolidation near a key support level.
A false breakout has already occurred, suggesting that bearish momentum may be building. Price action indicates that a retest of the 85.400 support level is likely. A repeated test of this level typically increases the probability of a breakout to the downside, potentially initiating a continuation of the decline.
Key Technical Notes:
Resistance zone : 85.400
Major Support 84.200
Keep eye on the market how the price will react Keep support with like and comments for more better analysis Thanks.
Riverside Resources: Value Dislocation from Upcoming Spin-Out?RRI is down over 30% this week, despite no negative news. This may be a classic case of value dislocation ahead of a corporate event.
📦 What’s happening?
Riverside is spinning out its Ontario gold assets into a new company, Blue Jay Gold Corp. Every RRI shareholder will receive 1 Blue Jay share for every 5 RRI shares held. These new shares are expected to be listed soon.
🧠 Why it matters:
Spin-outs often unlock hidden value by allowing each entity to focus on a clear strategy. The market sometimes misprices the parent company temporarily, creating an opportunity for informed investors.
📉 The recent decline could reflect:
Confusion around the transaction;
Weak hands exiting during the restructuring;
Lack of immediate liquidity for the spin-out shares.
⚒️ Riverside retains multiple strong projects in Mexico, significant working capital, and a royalty on Capitan Silver’s asset — another successful spin-out.
📊 With a market cap of only CAD $16.8M, the risk/reward appears skewed to the upside, especially if technicals confirm a reversal.
🔍 Worth watching as Blue Jay listing approaches. This setup reminds me of other profitable spin-out plays in the junior gold space.
SILVERSilver Price, Bond Yield, and DXY Correlation in the Economy
Key Correlations
Silver and DXY (US Dollar Index): Inverse Relationship
Silver is priced in USD, so a stronger dollar (DXY↑) makes silver more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and pressuring prices lower. Conversely, a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts silver’s affordability, increasing demand and prices.
Example: In early 2025, silver surged toward $32.60 as the DXY dropped to 99.50, highlighting this dynamic.
Silver and Bond Yields: Typically Inverse, But Context-Dependent
Higher bond yields (e.g., US 10-year Treasury) raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver, often pressuring prices downward.
Exception: During stagflation (high inflation + low growth) or geopolitical crises, silver and yields may rise together as investors seek inflation hedges.
Bond Yields and DXY: Positive Correlation
Rising US bond yields attract foreign capital, strengthening the dollar (DXY↑). This synergy often pressures silver prices via both channels.
Economic Applications
1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics
Fed Rate Hikes: Increase bond yields and often strengthen the dollar, creating dual headwinds for silver. However, if hikes fail to curb inflation, silver may rally as a hedge.
Quantitative Easing (QE): Expands money supply, weakening the dollar and supporting silver. For example, post-2008 QE drove silver to $50/oz by 2011.
2. Stagflation Scenarios
When inflation outpaces growth (e.g., 2024–2025), silver often outperforms despite rising yields. Investors prioritize its role as an inflation hedge over yield-driven opportunity costs.
3. Industrial Demand and Currency Volatility
Silver’s industrial use (e.g., solar panels, electronics) ties its price to economic growth. A weak dollar (DXY↓) can amplify demand from tech and green energy sectors, offsetting yield-driven declines.
4. Safe-Haven Flows
During geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade wars), silver and the dollar may both strengthen temporarily, disrupting their usual inverse correlation.
Strategic Implications
Factor Silver Price Impact Economic Signal
DXY ↑ + Yields ↑ Bearish Strong dollar, tight monetary policy
DXY ↓ + Yields ↓ Bullish Weak dollar, accommodative policy
DXY ↓ + Yields ↑ Mixed Stagflation or growth-inflation mix
Yield Peaks: Negatively divergent 10-year yields (~4.54% in May 2025) suggest impending declines, potentially boosting silver.
Debt-Driven Inflation: With U.S. debt-to-GDP exceeding 200%, monetary debasement fears support long-term silver demand despite short-term yield pressures.
Conclusion
The interplay between silver, bond yields, and the DXY provides critical insights into economic health and investor sentiment. While their correlations are often inverse, stagflation or systemic risks can override these trends, positioning silver as both a cyclical and structural hedge. Policymakers and traders monitor these relationships to navigate inflation, growth, and currency volatility.
#SILVER #DOLLAR #GOLD #FX #FOREX
$LINK just broke the trendline! It's prob going to 40$Chainlink (LINK) offers compelling technical advantages by addressing the "oracle problem" with a decentralized and, its continuous focus on scalability and performance, evidenced by upgrades like Multistream, ensures its foundational role in the evolving Web3 ecosystem.
However, from a technical analysis perspective, CRYPTOCAP:LINK has recently faced selling pressure, struggling to reclaim key resistance levels around $18 and $17.61, and could see further downside towards the $10-$15 support zones if current bearish momentum persists, with the $15.00 mark being a crucial level to watch for invalidation of recent bullish patterns.
Eli Lillly $LLYNYSE:LLY – Long Setup Ahead of June FOMC
Eli Lilly remains fundamentally strong, with robust growth in revenue (+45% YoY), driven by weight-loss and diabetes drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound. Despite this, the stock saw a recent pullback after a lowered FY25 profit outlook.
Technical View:
LLY is trading near a key support zone around $710. The setup offers a favorable 1:5 risk/reward ratio, with a stop at $700.86 and a target near $768. Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating a potential breakout.
This decline could be partially driven by market caution ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting in June. If support holds, we may see a bounce toward the $760–770 area.
Plan:
Entry: ~$710
Target: ~$768
Stop: ~$700.86
Risk/Reward: 1:5
Watching price action closely near the lower Bollinger band.
USDJPY (Long Update)📊 Trade Breakdown: USDJPY
Caught a solid entry and finally seeing the trade work in our favor. I'm targeting the daily FVG (Fair Value Gap), which aligns perfectly with a massive untapped weekly wick sitting above current price.
✅ Entry Zone: Around the 143.1–144 region
🎯 Target Zone: Daily imbalance above 146.600 — expecting price to at least tap into 25% of that weekly wick, which historically gets filled when paired with daily inefficiency.
🔍 Confluences:
Daily FVG lining up with weekly wick
Want to see the daily close above previous day.
Momentum flipping after tapping key liquidity pools
📅 Setup is playing out exactly as planned — patience paying off.
Bitcoin - Here we have the all time high!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - is just getting started:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
It was really just a matter of time until we see a new all time high on Bitcoin. Consindering that over the past two months alone, Bitcoin rose another +50%, this was a clear indication that bulls are taking over. But this all time high is clearly not the end of the bullrun.
Levels to watch: $300.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTC traffic update and channel exit.As we can see, the BTC price is moving according to the previously mentioned rules. Here we can see how the price left channel number 1 at the top, and the increase after leaving the channel gave an upward movement at the level of the height of the channel itself.
In this situation, it is worth paying attention to channel number 2, from which we also previously got an exit at the top with a strong upward movement, currently we can see how the price is fighting with strong resistance at the level of $ 111,500, however, taking into account the height of channel number 2, we can mark the level of around $ 121,500 as another very strong resistance.
5/22/25 - $ionq - You bought the Pen, lol5/22/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:IONQ
You bought the Pen, lol
- the ceo says "the pen is here and it's not here and it's a wave"
- and you said "i've already ordered three, one for me, one for my wife and one for my wife's boyfriend".
- welp. gl to anyone leveraged long these quantum donuts. it's almost hilarious to think how they're "back".
- i'm not short NYSE:IONQ bc it's the only one that actually has any product (lol not worth 12 billion), but NYSE:QBTS has a fake product, NASDAQ:RGTI doesn't even have a product and NASDAQ:QUBT is still pivoting from its last meme business plan selling beverages.
- take care. don't bet the family cat.
V
LONG on ATATStrong upward movement with volume. This asset has solid fundamentals.
From a technical point of view, we can see that it breaks its resistance and ATH becomes support.
More fall ahead?USD/JPY remains under intense selling pressure to trades near 149.50 in Friday's Asian trading. Despite dismal Tokyo CPI and Japan's Retail Trade data, the Japanese Yen stands resilient due to risk aversion. The US Treasury bond yields sell-off weighs heavily on the pair ahead of US PCE data.
In the past, weakness in the Japanese currency has been attributed to the difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rates as lower rates tend to pressure currencies, while higher rates lift them up. Japan had negative rates for about eight years, keeping it's currency weak compared to the dollar.
Thus, USD/JPY is positively correlated with oil. The pair will usually rise when oil prices are rising and fall when oil prices are falling. Demographic factors, such as Japan's aging population, and the geopolitical rise of China and other East Asian competitors may be underlying, non-economic factors. Researchers have produced papers delineating possible reasons why the Japanese economy sank into prolonged stagnation.
