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Fundamental Analysis

Markets in Motion: Fed, Geopolitics, and the Next Big Move This week’s midweek market review dives into the critical catalysts shaking global markets—just ahead of the pivotal FOMC decision. 📉 Is the U.S. dollar heading for a deeper slide? 🏆 Will gold break past its all-time highs again? ₿ Can Bitcoin sustain momentum amid geopolitical risk and Fed uncertainty? We unpack: Key economic data driving DXY Gold’s safe-haven surge and central bank demand Bitcoin’s resilience, ETF flows, and macro headwinds Geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East and their market implications Stay ahead of the curve with real-time insights to help you navigate the markets confidently into the weekend and beyond. 🔔 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and hit the bell to stay updated with our weekly outlooks!
by DeanMuller
DRIP — Geopolitical Oil Risk Creates a Buying OpportunityDRIP (inverse 2x ETF on US oil & gas exploration/production) is approaching a key technical support zone. While oil may continue rising short term due to geopolitical tensions — especially US-Iran risks and Middle East instability — this short-term pressure could push DRIP lower toward the $5.00–6.00 area. That zone aligns with strong historical reversal points and trend support. From there, a rebound toward $12.00–20.00 is technically and fundamentally possible, offering 30–50%+ profit potential. I’m planning staged entries in the marked range, managing risk with awareness of commodity market volatility and global uncertainty.
AMEX:DRIPShort
by InvestWorld_777
Hold on, here is the real deal.District court ruling on the joint motion (June12) still pending—no update yet. Judge Torres’ ruling – could come any day; depends on district court docket. Appeals proceedings remain on hold until at least August 15, 2025. XRP spot ETF decisions delayed: SEC ETF decisions, comment periods suggest Franklin Templeton: very likely by late July ProShares: by June 25 Grayscale: likely October Bitwise: through June to October CPI must fall under 2.0% Oil must retrace to the $70s Fed must signal a real cut, not conditional pause DXY must fall below 103 Current War that we all are focused is going to be ended swiftly. Until then, Hold Your Horses!
CRYPTOCAP:XRPLong
by Jaeren_Gale
Rising Geopolitical Tension (Iran Conflict) Signals Market RiskMoving Partially to Cash (VEA, QQQ, TQQQ, SPY, TECL, SOXL) The global market is entering a high-risk environment. Geopolitical escalation, particularly the growing threat of direct US involvement in a military conflict with Iran, is pushing global uncertainty to new highs. Tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and gold volatility, and increased friction between major world powers all point toward a potential market breakdown. On the chart, VEA ETF is showing signs of topping out within a rising wedge pattern. Meanwhile, institutional funds are starting to reduce exposure to high-risk assets. I'm taking partial profits and shifting to cash across VEA, QQQ, TQQQ, SPY, SOXL, and TECL to preserve gains. Buy-back zones are set around 53.00, 48.00, and 44.00. In an environment of global escalation and rapid risk-off sentiment, active portfolio defense is more important than passive hope.
AMEX:VEAShort
by InvestWorld_777
ATI Still Has More Upside PotentialATI broke out above the key $67.35 resistance level in early May and is now attempting to consolidate its recent surge. While the stock has nearly reached the consensus analyst price target—suggesting limited near-term upside—the recent Middle East visit by Trump may have changed the outlook. ATI is a U.S.-based specialty materials and components manufacturer, focused on high-performance metals for the aerospace, defense, and energy sectors. During Trump’s visit, large aerospace orders were announced, especially for NYSE:BA and NYSE:GE . The total value of these orders is expected to reach $115 billion. ATI could be one of the main beneficiaries of this deal, as nearly 16% of its revenue comes from sales to Boeing and GE. In addition, broader demand growth in the aerospace and defense industries may directly or indirectly support ATI’s business. From a valuation standpoint, ATI is currently trading at 13.9x forward earnings—26% above its two-year average. However, many valuation models and forecasts remain outdated and may not yet reflect the impact of recent developments. If ATI pulls back to retest the $67.35 breakout level, it could present a strong buying opportunity with a close stop. The upper boundary of the trend channel, currently near $90, may serve as a medium-term target.
NYSE:ATILong
by ftdsystem
Data is about to be released. Will it affect the trend of gold?Information summary: The Federal Reserve is about to announce the latest interest rate decision, and the market generally expects it to maintain the policy interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% unchanged. Trump recently asked the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point immediately. However, the market reacted cautiously to this, believing that a sharp interest rate cut may increase inflation risks, especially in the context of Middle East conflicts pushing up oil prices. Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the press conference will become the focus of market attention. The market expects the Fed to maintain a "cautious and patient" tone, and the guidance on the interest rate outlook may be vague. Market analysis: Technical indicators, from the daily chart, the support level is near the 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average, and the 3365-3345 range forms an important support. In terms of resistance, yesterday's high near 3405 constitutes a key resistance above. If the price wants to reverse the current weak pattern, it needs to break through this resistance level strongly to open up the upward space. From the 1-hour chart, the price started to fall after reaching a high point, and maintained stability in the upper and lower ranges; it is now close to the low point in the early trading, and the trend is relatively slow. In the absence of an upward or downward breakthrough, we still follow the strategy of selling high and buying low. Short around 3400, stop loss 3410, profit range 3380-3365; Long around 3365 when the price falls back, stop loss 3355, profit range 3380-3400.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
GOLD SPOT (XAU/USD) 1H ANALYSIS BULLISH STRUCTURE HOLDING STRONG📈 GOLD SPOT (XAU/USD) 1H ANALYSIS – BULLISH STRUCTURE HOLDING STRONG! 🚀✨ 🔍 Overview: Gold is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel 📊, showing clear bullish intent. Price action has respected the lower channel support, bouncing strongly from a key demand zone highlighted in blue. 🟦 Support Zone: The price is consolidating just above the $3,385–$3,390 support zone 🛡️, which has acted as a springboard multiple times in the past. This area aligns perfectly with the lower trendline, increasing its reliability. 📍 Key Price Targets: 🎯 $3,402 – First breakout confirmation and minor resistance. 🎯 $3,422 – Mid-level target, possible resistance. 🎯 $3,452 – High-probability target if bullish momentum continues. 🎯 $3,460+ – Extended target aligning with the channel top. 📈 Technical Structure: Price is respecting higher lows and higher highs, maintaining bullish momentum. A breakout above $3,402 could trigger the next leg up. Market is forming a bullish flag/pennant consolidation—potential breakout pending ⏳. ⚠️ Risk Zone: A break below the demand zone and the channel could invalidate the bullish setup ❌. Close monitoring of lower structure is essential. ✅ Conclusion: As long as price holds above the key support zone and within the ascending channel, bullish continuation remains the favored scenario. A breakout above interim resistance levels could send Gold toward $3,450+! 🌟📊 🔔 Watch for bullish confirmation candles or volume spikes before entry! 📅 Chart published: June 18, 2025 | XAU/USD | 1H timeframe 🧠 Strategy: Bullish breakout play 📈 💡 Sentiment: Moderately Bullish ♻️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VikingFx-Community
USD/CAD mid-term shift?The rise in the US Dollar Index has led to a rebound against several currencies such as the Canadian dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen, shifting the medium-term bearish trend into a bullish one. One of the pairs that could benefit from the USD’s strength is the USD/CAD. After the USD/CAD pair recorded a new high by breaking the last lower high, the recent pullback is considered a correction within the upward trend. The price is likely to rise from the 1.35725 level toward the 1.36567 target. However, a drop below the 1.35397 level and a 4-hour candle closing beneath it would invalidate the bullish scenario. Note: This pair is trading in a general downtrend on the daily timeframe. However, the above analysis is specifically based on the 4-hour chart for the medium-to-short-term outlook. Markets are also closely watching the Federal Reserve meeting later today, as its outcome will have a direct impact on all USD-related currency pairs.
by CFI
Your Liquidation can be Exchanges Business & Profit Ever feel like the market is designed to move against you ? That your stop-loss is a magnet for price action? What if it’s not just in your head? Behind every liquidation wave lies a structure and maybe even a strategy. In this post, we dive deep into how exchanges might be benefiting from your losses and most importantly, how to flip the script in your favor. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on XRP: XRP is approaching a major daily support zone, aligned with the psychological level of $2.00. This area has historically provided strong buying interest. A potential rebound from this level could lead to a minimum upside of 16%, with a medium-term target around $2.50 . 📈 Now , let's dive into the educational section, 💣 Liquidation as a Business Model In crypto derivatives markets, liquidation isn’t just a risk it’s a revenue stream. When your position gets liquidated, your funds don’t just vanish into thin air they become someone else’s gain. Often, the exchange itself. Remember, exchanges control: Price data Order book matching Access to retail trading behavior That means they can anticipate and even design market conditions that favor liquidations . Especially from retail traders who overleverage or place their stops in obvious spots. Scary? Maybe. Avoidable? Absolutely. 📊 Why TradingView Is Where Your Survival Starts When it comes to defending yourself against liquidity traps, your best weapon is data real data. Not gut feelings, not Telegram signals. TradingView offers a range of tools that help you detect the footprints of large players before they run over your position. Here’s how to use them: Liquidity Zones: These zones highlight areas where most stop-losses cluster perfect for identifying where big players are likely to push price. Use community indicators like “Liquidity Grab Zones” or manually plot key levels. Volume Profile: Shows you exactly where the highest traded volumes occurred. These “high interest” areas often become magnets for price and are favorite playgrounds for liquidity raids. Order Blocks: Smart money often enters the market through order blocks. Tools like “SMC Tools” or custom scripts in TradingView help you mark these institutional footprints. Open Interest & Funding Rates (via external data plugins): Watch for spikes in funding or sudden OI drops these can be early signs of liquidation sweeps. Replay Tool: Rewind the market to any date and simulate price movement in real time. An amazing way to train your eyes on how liquidity hunts usually play out. Bottom line? TradingView isn’t just a charting tool it’s your radar system in a market full of traps. But only if you use it the right way. 🧠 Market Psychology: Your Fear Is Their Fuel Exchanges and the whales who partner with them thrive on predictable retail emotion: Fear of missing out (FOMO) Fear of liquidation Greed for fast gains They don’t need to fake anything your emotions are enough. They just need to let the herd run into the slaughterhouse. Your best defense? Awareness, logic, and a data-first mindset. ⚠️ How to Avoid Becoming Their Target Stop following noise; start tracking smart data. Never use stop-losses at obvious round levels or under candle wicks these are classic sweep zones. Watch funding rates if it looks too bullish or bearish, get cautious. Don’t enter trades when you feel too confident that’s often when traps are most effective. Aim for higher-timeframe setups and avoid scalping in manipulated zones. Most importantly: Treat every chart as a trap until proven otherwise. 🧭 Final Take In crypto, knowledge isn’t power it’s protection. If you’re still hoping the market plays fair, it’s time to change perspective. Use TradingView to out-think and outlast the systems designed to exploit you. You don’t have to be a genius just informed. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks , Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
17
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
The Bitcoin Manipulation Trick - How They Lure You Into the Trap📉 Bitcoin spends more time in deep drawdowns than at its peaks. Historically, BTC has spent over 80% of its existence trading 80-90% below its all-time highs, yet people keep falling for the illusion of wealth. 🧐 Here’s how the cycle works: 1️⃣ They drive up the price to make it enticing for new buyers. 2️⃣ You FOMO in at the highs, believing in the "next big wave." 3️⃣ Then they crash it, wiping out weak holders. 4️⃣ They keep it suppressed for years, forcing everyone out, via margin calls, financial strain, or sheer exhaustion. 5️⃣ When enough have capitulated, they restart the cycle. 📊 Historical Evidence: - 2013 Crash: Over 400 days down 80%+ before recovery. - 2017 Crash: Nearly 3 years below 80% of ATH. - 2021 Drop: More than a year stuck 75% below peak. 🔎 If you’re buying now, be ready to: ⛔ Lose access to your money ⛔ Keep covering margins ⛔ Wait years for recovery, if it ever happens … They play the same trick, every time. If you don’t recognize it, you’re just another part of the cycle. 🚀🔥 INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:CRCL
SWISSQUOTE:BTCUSDShort
by CassianDrake
53
Gold Price Update – XAUUSDGold FX:XAUUSD has experienced rapid and intense volatility but overall remains stable, as investors weigh the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran while focusing on this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. At the time of reporting, spot gold CAPITALCOM:GOLD remains steady at $3,380/oz, down from yesterday’s (Tuesday) high of $3,403/oz. Israel and Iran continued exchanging fire into a fifth day on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital, Tehran, and cut short his trip to the G7 summit in Canada. Reports claim he had instructed the National Security Council to prepare in the Situation Room. According to Reuters, Tehran has requested Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to urge Trump to push Israel toward a ceasefire in exchange for Iran’s willingness to show flexibility in nuclear negotiations. Trump’s latest post on Truth Social stated: "I have had ZERO communication with Iran in any way, shape, or form regarding (peace talks). It’s fake news! If they want to negotiate, they know how to contact me. They should take the deal on the table—it will save many lives!!!" Forexlive commented that anyone familiar with Trump knows he will definitely wait for Iran to approach him. Reports suggest Iran is attempting to negotiate a ceasefire, but no substantive developments have emerged yet. Gold, a non-yielding asset, is widely seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and it tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Therefore, fundamentally, gold should maintain a positive outlook in the current market context—even though sudden pullbacks can unsettle new traders. Personally, I’ve had many moments this year when I doubted myself and didn’t trust the uptrend—only to suffer bad outcomes… sigh. The Fed’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech are scheduled for today (Wednesday). Traders currently expect the Fed to cut rates twice by year-end. According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch” on June 18: There is a 97.3% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged in June, and a 2.7% chance of a 25bps rate cut. In July, there is an 85.3% chance of holding rates steady, a 14.4% chance of a cumulative 25bps cut, and a 0.3% chance of a 50bps cut. Technical Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) On the daily chart, gold has been oscillating around the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the psychological price of $3,400—previously highlighted as key support/resistance in our earlier analysis. However, the overall technical structure remains unchanged, with the dominant trend still bullish. The 21-day EMA continues to act as a crucial support line, and trendline (a) remains the primary trend direction. Meanwhile, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement serves as the nearest support, with price channel (b) defining the short-term trend. In terms of momentum, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains above 50, which is also acting as a support level in this case. The distance from the overbought zone suggests further upside potential remains. Intraday, a breakout above the psychological $3,400 level would provide a bullish signal, with the next target seen around $3,435 in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: Support: $3,371 – $3,350 Resistance: $3,400 – $3,435
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
GOLD → Consolidation. Awaiting the FOMC meetingFX:XAUUSD is consolidating in the range of 3403 - 3373. The problem is that there is news ahead. FOMC and interest rate meeting. The market may react in any unpredictable way... On Wednesday, the price of gold retreated from $3,400 as sentiment stabilized and investors focused on the upcoming Fed decision. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, but there is less panic in the markets. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged. The focus is on forecasts for rates, growth, and inflation. Dovish signals could support gold and weaken the dollar. If the Fed is more cautious due to oil and the conflict in the Middle East, the dollar could rise and gold could fall. Technical nuances are irrelevant in this case, as price behavior depends on the market's interpretation of fundamental factors. Resistance levels: 3403, 3420 Support levels: 3373, 3339 BUT! Technically, I would say that there is pressure from the bears. The price is compressing towards the support level of 3373. The market remains unbalanced in favor of buyers, and it is logical that market makers will be interested in testing the trend support zone or the 3339 level (due to the liquidity pool) before continuing to rise (gold may continue to rise both if rates are lowered and if they remain at the same level. However, the tone of the Fed will play a major role here) Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
17
USOIL FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS USOIL (WTI Crude) is currently trading near the 72.00 level and is setting up for a potential breakout from a long-standing descending channel on the higher time frame (3D chart). Price has approached the upper boundary of this bearish channel after a strong bullish rally in recent sessions. This indicates growing bullish momentum, and any sustained breakout above the descending trendline could open the path toward the 98.00 zone, a major structural target based on previous price action and Fibonacci projections. The recent bullish surge in crude oil prices has been fueled by a combination of supply-side constraints and renewed optimism around global demand. OPEC+ continues to show discipline in supply management, and geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions are adding risk premiums. Furthermore, the Fed’s recent signals of a potential pause in tightening, combined with an improving outlook for Chinese demand recovery, are creating a supportive environment for commodities, particularly oil. These fundamental tailwinds align with the technical structure hinting at an upside breakout. Technically, USOIL has broken back above a critical mid-channel support level and is now challenging the descending resistance line. The most recent impulsive candles suggest strong buyer conviction. If this momentum holds, we could see a retest followed by continuation toward the 98.00 psychological level. The structure also supports a higher low formation, which is another bullish signal for long-term traders watching the macro channel breakout. From a trading standpoint, this setup is high probability with a well-defined invalidation zone below 65.00. The confluence of macro catalysts, technical breakout formation, and seasonal demand trends makes this a compelling bullish opportunity. I am closely monitoring price action for confirmation to go long on the breakout and ride the potential wave toward the upper supply region near 98.00. U
TVC:USOILLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
6
Once again, we seized a golden opportunityYesterday, gold fluctuated throughout the day and failed to break through the key range we pointed out. The current structure continues to fluctuate. During the day, we will continue to pay attention to the strong support of 3365-3360 below. This area is the key defensive position we emphasized yesterday. As long as this area is not broken, the bulls still have a chance to make a comeback. The long orders we arranged today at 3370-3375 have all been taken profit near 3387, and the short-term is perfectly realized! At present, 3400 above is the primary pressure position. We have also given a short order plan. We continue to hold it at present, and the target is to take profit when it falls back to 3380-3375. The overall idea is to maintain the main long and auxiliary short rhythm. In terms of operation, the interval thinking is prioritized, and wait for the key points to be confirmed before taking action. If it breaks through, change the idea in time. Operation suggestion: Gold falls back to 3375-3370 and goes long with a light position, and further falls back to 3365-3360 to cover the position. The target is 3380-3390-3400. If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
CME FedWatch : the essential tool to consult before the FedThe CME FedWatch Tool is a free and widely used resource offered by CME Group. It has become a key reference in the financial industry for tracking, in real time, market expectations about upcoming interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Frequently cited in financial media, this tool allows traders and analysts to assess the likelihood of a rate hike, hold, or cut ahead of each scheduled FOMC meeting. How does it work? At the core of the FedWatch Tool lies data derived from 30-day Fed Funds Futures, which reflect the average federal funds rate expected for a given month. These contracts follow a simple rule: Implied Rate = 100 – Futures Price So if a futures contract trades at 95.67, the implied average rate is 4.33%. This is then compared not just to the Fed’s current target range (4.25% to 4.50%), but more specifically to the Effective Federal Funds Rate (currently around 4.33%) to estimate the market-implied probability of a rate hike, hold, or cut. The FedWatch Tool then distributes these probabilities across expected scenarios for each upcoming meeting, allowing users to see, for instance, a 99.9% probability of a hold or a 0.1% chance of a cut. This makes it a real-time barometer of monetary policy expectations. The Historical section: analyze and backtest Beyond the live probabilities, the tool also features a Historical section. This shows how rate expectations evolved ahead of past FOMC meetings and what the Fed ultimately decided. Users can download this data for further study, enabling a better understanding of how market sentiment shifted over time, particularly in reaction to speeches, inflation data, or jobs reports. This is especially valuable for those looking to backtest trading or hedging strategies tied to rate decisions. The “Dot Plot”: insight into the Fed’s own outlook Another key feature of the tool is the Dot Plot, which displays individual FOMC participants’ rate projections over time. Each dot represents a member’s view of where the fed funds rate should be by the end of a given year. The Dot Plot is only updated four times per year, in March, June, September, and December, during the Fed’s so-called “summary of economic projections” meetings. These quarterly meetings are particularly market-sensitive because they are accompanied by updated economic forecasts and a press conference. While the dots do not reflect a formal voting commitment, they offer valuable insight into the Fed’s collective sentiment and long-term bias. How to Interpret the Data? A key takeaway for traders: don’t confuse the direction of interest rates with the overall message. A rate cut may not be “dovish” if paired with cautious language or projections. Conversely, holding rates steady may be interpreted as “hawkish” if the market was expecting a cut. What really moves markets is the difference between expectations and what the Fed actually says or does. That includes the language of the statement, any changes in the dot plot, and Chair Powell’s comments in the post-decision press conference. These factors often matter more than the rate move itself. The situation on Wednesday, June 18, 2025: what to expect? The June 18 meeting is one of the quarterly meetings, meaning it will come with a press conference and a release of a new dot plot. As of now, the FedWatch Tool shows an extremely high probability (99.9%) of a rate hold within the current 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, what matters most on this occasion is the guidance for the second half of the year. As of now: The market assigns a 56% probability to a first rate cut by September, A 41% chance to two cumulative 25 bp cuts (down to 3.75–4.00%) and a 21% chance of a more aggressive easing path (3.50–3.75%) by December. This means the market still expects some policy easing later in the year, but not aggressively. If Powell opens the door more clearly to cuts, or if the new dot plot shows a downward shift in the median rate projection for 2025, the dollar could weaken and rate-sensitive assets might rally. On the other hand, if the Fed maintains a cautious stance and the dots remain unchanged, markets may interpret that as hawkish. This is why knowing what the market has already priced in before the announcement is essential: the reaction depends not on the raw decision, but on how it compares to expectations. In short… For all these reasons, I believe the FedWatch Tool is a simple yet extremely powerful resource for anyone interested in U.S. monetary policy. It allows users to track market expectations and compare them with official Fed communications. It’s definitely a key part of my trading arsenal. To go deeper, other tools can complement this analysis—especially implied volatility data from rate options markets. These don’t signal directional bias, but rather how large a move the market expects. That will be the focus of an upcoming article.
CBOT:ZQ1!Education
by satelysfx
Bitcoin Daily Linear chart getting Squeezed on FED day - Caution Those Fib circles are showing their strength again. See how PA is pushed by them 99% of the Time. And right now, we see PA ina tight Squeeze between horizontal Local support and that falling red 236 fib circle. The Apex of that Bearish pennant is near the end of this month. And, Today, depending on how Markets react to the FED Rate decision, PA could break away from this A Push higher will meet resistance around 109K A Drop lower would find support around 100K - 98K And if I am going to show a Bearish side, a drop to the 4.618 at 92K is VERY possible given Macro events We live in Hope that the Bulls Will show up
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal