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Fundamental Analysis

BTC short squeeze in the makingMany people believe that BTC is running "too hot," and we're seeing what appears to be a short squeeze. We all know what's next. No one in their right mind will buy at the top, esp. given it's volatility. Some economic events are right around the corner over the next 1-2 weeks which could impact BTC and S&P. Typically, market rallies are short lived, esp. when the fundamentals are out of whack. Unemployment is cooling (remember is a lagging indicator), high # of bankruptcies, housing unaffordability highest in decades, high interest rates, student loans will start making a dent soon...the list goes on. Don't let the Champagne effect fool you! Berkshire stocking up on cash for a reason. Best of luck and always do your own DD! Staying positive, with a healthy dose of keeping things real.
Short
by antonini2002
Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) – Global Growth & Monetization TailwindsCompany Snapshot: Reddit NYSE:RDDT is a community-centric social media platform, uniquely positioned through user-generated content and authentic engagement. With over 100,000 active communities, Reddit is a magnet for targeted brand advertising and premium ad formats. Key Catalysts: AI-Driven International Expansion 🌐 Launched AI-powered post translation in 35+ countries, including Brazil, Germany, and Italy. This unlocks new audiences and ad monetization in high-growth global markets. High Margin Business Model 💸 Reported a 90.5% gross margin—highlighting Reddit’s asset-light infrastructure and operational efficiency. Sets the stage for significant operating leverage as revenue scales. Ad Revenue Acceleration 📊 Brands increasingly view Reddit as a premium ad environment, given its contextual targeting and deep user engagement. Expanding tools for advertisers (e.g., Dynamic Product Ads) may enhance monetization per user. Investment Outlook: Bullish Entry Zone: Above $120.00–$122.00 Upside Target: $190.00–$195.00, supported by global reach, margin strength, and ad revenue tailwinds. 🧠 Reddit isn’t just a social platform—it’s a monetizable network of influence, fueled by community trust and scalable technology. #Reddit #RDDT #SocialMediaStocks #AIExpansion #GrossMargin #AdTech #CommunityEngagement #TechStocks #Bullish #DigitalAds #UserGeneratedContent #GlobalGrowth #FreeCashFlow #GrowthStocks
NYSE:RDDTLong
by Richtv_official
Trump threatens tariff on Japan as deadline looms, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is negative ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.06, up 0.47%. The US and Japan are racing to reach a trade deal before a deadline of July 9. There are some serious roadblocks to a deal, including the current US tariff of 25% on Japanese cars and opening Japan's agricultural sector, particularly rice. President Trump has insisted that Japan import American-grown rice, but the Japanese government says that is unacceptable. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akawaza said earlier this week that Japan would not "sacrifice the agricultural sector", while Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said that foreign rice imports would threaten Japan's food security. It's a shortened week in the US due to the Fourth of July holiday on Friday. The US will release the June employment report on Thursday, with all eyes on nonfarm payrolls. Nonfarm payrolls eased slightly in May to 137 thousand from 147 thousand and the downward trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 110 thousand for June. This would mark the weakest pace of job growth since 2020, with the exception of a meltdown in job growth in Oct. 2024. The Federal Reserve will also be monitoring the nonfarm payroll report. The US labor market has been weakening and the Fed is concerned that the jobs market could show a sharp deterioration. Currently, the most likely date for the next Fed rare cut is September, but a soft NFP reading south of 90 thousand would boost the case for a cut at the July 30 meeting. The Fed has maintained a wait-and-see stance since Nov. 2024 but that is expected to change in the fourth quarter, where we could see up three rate cuts.
by OANDA
1
Gold Trading Strategy February 7✏️As expected from the analysis, after the D1 candle showed buying pressure again, the price continued its uptrend yesterday and reached 3357. Currently, the price is consolidating within a relatively wide sideways range, extending from 3328 to 3344. A trend-following trading strategy will be set up when the price breaks out of this range. The BUY signal is expected to bring good profits if the price retests the support. The SELL signal at resistance is considered to look for rebound points in an uptrend. 📈 Key Levels Breakout Range: 3344-3328 Support: 3310-3298 Resistance: 3368-3386 📊 Recommended Trade Setups BUY: 3310-3308 | SL: 3305 SELL: 3368-3370 | SL: 3373
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
2
Gold price analysis July 2As expected, after the D1 candle showed the return of buying power, yesterday's trading session saw the price continue its upward trend and reach 3357. Currently, the market is in an accumulation phase with a fairly wide range, fluctuating from 3328 to 3344. This is an important price zone, acting as a "sideway box" waiting for a breakout. The priority strategy at this time is still trend trading - activated when the price breaks out of the above accumulation zone. BUY orders will have a high probability of success if the price adjusts and retests the Support or Resistance zones that have just been broken, then forms a confirmation signal. Meanwhile, SELL orders around resistance should only be considered a recovery strategy in an uptrend - requiring strict risk management and short-term profit expectations. Breakout Range: 3328 – 3344 Support: 3310 – 3298 Resistance: 3368 – 3386
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
7/2/25 - $sbet - Another way to juice sbet orange7/2/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SBET Another way to juice sbet orange - in this giddy money printer go brr expectation tape and back to ATH on the index, it's an interesting point to look for names where you'd own it... but where it might be non-obvious and where IV is high - as a point of reference, take $sbet. 1.5x mnav ETH treasury w/ some gaming ops, biggest treasury outside of eth foundation, eth is probably actually underwrite-able (not a word i know) from a convert/ perferred perspective, where a treasury *really* gets yield on it's stack - I can sell the $10 strike aug 15 calls for $1.8 rn (and have started doing this, most of that volume today is me lol) - point here is... 1/ i think in the next 6-18 mo. ETH will be probably $4-5k. does this mean it doesn't go to $1.5-2k in the meanwhile? and this thing could trade at 1x mnav in the immediate term? if that were the case, say $2.5k eth (so -20% plus or minus) and then 1.5x mnav to 1x mnav = another 30% on top of this. so you're looking at -50% (or more) so a $5/shr stock. would i buy it there? hell yeah. bottom w/ upside leverage w/o any expiry. it's like a call option that never expires at that point - but in the meanwhile... do i have conviction this thing apes higher to the teens? 20s? no way jose. - so i can buy a pile of shares here at $9.5, "sell" $10 strike for $1.8/shr and collect about 20% (1.8/9.5) for a month and a half. if thing goes to 20s... oh well, i am able to take bigger size at this stage than i'd otherwise be willing to take... bc my basis goes to $7.7/shr (9.5-1.8) and therefore my "downside" is a more reasonable 35% - "V 35% downside is horrendous" - lol - welcome to my probability mindset. I don't mind 20-40% max drawdown if i have visibility to multiple X's and also believe i would be adding in that drawdown instead of saying "shoot need to cut" ... and thinking it could do -60% or more on my basis. i don't ever like putting myself in a situation where i require more than 1x to breakeven - therefore, let's play the market marker game. sit on our hands for the next month and a half. collect some premium. wish the best to our friends at SBET but be a bit unconcerned about the ST price action V
NASDAQ:SBETLong
by VROCKSTAR
6
NZD JPY long NZD JPY long .. As discussed this morning, I feel the environment supports a 'risk on' trade. Today's US data hasn't altered my view. I'm leaving the USD alone due to being wary of pre NFP profit taking. Its a 20 pip stop loss with 30 pip profit target. The risk to the trade is negative sentiment or USD liquidity if dollar weakness returns. I will close the trade before NFP if it's ongoing. *Arguably the GBP has been a 'catalyst short' opportunity today. But I feel like I'm late to the party on that one. Please feel free to offer thoughts or questions:
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
Hash rate capitulationThe hash rate capitulation (HRC) indicator used in the Bitcoin Bottom Indictor (BBI) has fired. The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has occurred (i.e., the 20-day MA goes below the 100-day MA). This indicator triggers when the 20-day moving average of the hash rate going below the 100-day moving average. In the past, this indicator has detected local and macro cycle bottoms. It does fire more often than most other bottom indicators, so take it with a grain of salt.
BNC:BLXLong
by Da_Prof
MUSK on TRUMP's Bill | "outrageous, disgusting abomination"Elon Musk’s sided against the latest Trump-backed tax-and-spending package, in a plot twist between the recent partners turned enemies. Musk called the legislation a “massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill” and a “disgusting abomination,” publicly shaming senators and representatives who backed it. With such a strong opinion against it one may wonder, is this going to negatively affect Tesla? Together with this strong reaction, the price has already been trading lower for the past few days. The administration has defended it as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” insisting it will stimulate growth, even though Elon Musk warned the bill would swell the U.S. budget deficit by roughly $2.3–2.5 trillion over the next decade, calling the added debt “crushingly unsustainable”. When I first read this, it made me think of Tesla's long generated “green credits”, which in 2024 alone, brought in roughly $2.76 billion. “green credits” (officially, zero-emission or regulatory credits) work by building more clean vehicles than required and selling the excess allowances to other automakers that need them to comply with emissions mandates. Now I'm no expert on US policy, and so I roped in GPT to help me explain how this new bill implicates TESLA's profit: Under the Senate’s “big, beautiful” tax-and-spending bill, Tesla’s regulatory-credit business faces two assaults: ❗ Repeal of CAFE- and ZEV-mandates The bill would eliminate penalties for automakers missing Corporate Average Fuel Economy targets and roll back zero-emission vehicle mandates that currently force legacy manufacturers to buy credits if they fall short. Remove those penalties and mandates, and there’s no structural need for credits—undercutting the very market that funds Tesla’s $2–3 billion-a-year credit-sales business ❗ End of consumer EV tax incentives By phasing out the $7,500 new-EV credit (and the $4,000 used-EV credit) within months of enactment, the bill dampens U.S. EV demand overall. A smaller EV market means fewer opportunities for Tesla to leverage fleet-wide ZEV regulations against higher-emitting rivals—further squeezing credit prices and volume Bottom line: Without CAFE/ZEV obligations and with EV purchase subsidies gone, Tesla’s “green-credit” line—a major profit driver in recent quarters—would likely collapse, removing a key buffer against manufacturing and pricing pressures. This could be the beginning of a bear market for Tesla lasting throughout the rest of the Trump administration. ________________________ NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Crypto-Check-
13
BSW Bull Trap:Binance Delisting + Weak Fundamentals = -50% AheadToday, I want to analyze the Biswap project ( BINANCE:BSWUSDT ) with the BSW token for you and examine the opportunity for a short position on the BSW token from a Fundamental and Technical perspective. First, let's examine the conditions of the Biswap project from a Fundamental perspective. Biswap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the BNB Chain, offering features like token swaps, farming, staking, and an NFT marketplace. It became popular due to its very low trading fees (0.1%) and an aggressive referral & reward system. However, the project is facing key fundamental issues: Decline in trading volume and user activity Drop in TVL rankings among DEX platforms Inflationary tokenomics with constant reward emissions, increasing sell pressure Most critically, Binance announced the delisting of BSW (effective July 4, 2025), shaking investor confidence severely . In summary, while Biswap started strong, its fundamentals have weakened significantly, especially after the Binance delisting, which casts doubt over its future viability. --------------------------------------------------- In terms of Technical Analysis , the BSW token managed to reach the Heavy Resistance zone($0.060-$0.0315) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) with the previous hours' pump( more than +100% ), but then started to decline again. In terms of Elliott wave theory , I consider the recent hours pump as a wave C of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) . I expect that given the delisting(soon) of the BSW token and the technical analysis of the BSW token, it will fall by at least -50% . In fact, this pump could act as a Bull Trap . Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $0.0422 = We can expect more pumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Biswap Analyze (BSWUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BShort
by pejman_zwin
7
Centene Corp | CNC | Long at $35.00Centene Corp NYSE:CNC is a healthcare enterprise providing programs and services to under-insured and uninsured families, commercial organizations, and military families in the U.S. through Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and other segments. The stock dropped almost 40% this morning due to recent challenges, such as a $1.8B reduction in 2025 risk adjustment revenue and rising Medicaid costs (leading to withdrawal of 2025 earnings guidance). However, the company has a book value near $56, debt-to-equity of 0.7x (healthy), a current P/E of 5x, and a forward P/E of 9x. It may be a few years before this stock recovers. But the price has entered my "crash" simple moving average area (currently between $32 and $36) and there is a price gap on the daily chart between $32 and $33 that will likely be closed before a move higher. Long-term, and potentially a new political administration, new life may enter this stock once again as the baby boom generation requires more healthcare services. But holding is not for the faint of heart... Thus, at $35.00, NYSE:CNC is in a personal buy zone with a likely continued dip into the low $30s or high $20s before a slow move higher (where I will be accumulating more shares). Full disclosure: I am also a position holder in the $60s and cost averaging down. Targets into 2028: $45.00 (+28.6%) $54.00 (+54.3%)
NYSE:CNCLong
by WorthlessViews
SharpLink Gaming Inc (SBET) - Falling Wedge & Inverse H&S🚀 SharpLink Gaming ( NASDAQ:SBET ) – Ethereum, Joe Lubin & a Bullish Setup SharpLink Gaming has undergone a bold transformation: the company is now the largest public holder of Ethereum (ETH), with ~198,000 ETH acquired since June 2025. Over 95% of it is staked, already earning 200+ ETH in rewards – turning ETH into a yield-bearing treasury asset. Driving this shift is Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and CEO of ConsenSys, who recently became Chairman of SharpLink. Under his leadership, SBET is betting big on Ethereum as “digital capital”, aiming to merge iGaming and Web3. 📊 Technical Setup: SBET is forming a falling wedge and an inverse head and shoulders – both classic bullish reversal patterns. After a post-announcement retracement, the chart suggests growing potential for a breakout as fundamentals strengthen. 🧠 My thesis: This is MicroStrategy playbook 2.0 – but with ETH instead of BTC. SharpLink gives equity exposure to Ethereum + staking yield + visionary leadership. 🔔 Worth watching closely. ⚠️ Always do your own investment research and make your own decisions before investing.
NASDAQ:SBETLong
by Mr_Anonymous_Investor
XAUUSD Analysis – July 2–3, 2025: Resistance Holds Gold is currently trading around 3,337 USD, having tested the 3,350 USD resistance zone without a successful breakout. The price remains under pressure from key macroeconomic factors: - The Dollar Index (DXY) is stable above 106 – a sign of continued demand for the greenback, which weakens gold. - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hold around 4.35%, reinforcing the view that the Fed will keep interest rates high. - The Core PCE report for June remains above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, decreasing expectations of a rate cut in Q3. - Safe-haven demand is weak, as geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Eastern Europe remains subdued. ➡ Overall, these factors confirm that XAUUSD remains under bearish pressure in both the short and medium term, especially while key resistance remains intact. 1. Technical Analysis – XAUUSD on D1 Chart - Price recently tested the 3,340 – 3,350 USD resistance zone, a confluence of: Previous supply zone - Fibonacci retracement 0.5–0.618 from 3,399 USD - Key Change of Character (CHoCH) level - RSI is forming a mild bearish divergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum. - EMA20 and EMA50 are both sloping downward – confirming the prevailing bearish trend. This setup is typical of a Sell on Rally pattern, with each retracement being rejected at strong resistance. 2. Key Technical Zones to Watch Technical Role - 3,350 – 3,340 Major resistance (Fibo 0.5–0.618 + supply + CHoCH) - 3,294 – 3,285 Nearest support – previously a resistance-turned-support - 3,255 – 3,235 Short-term target zone – June low - 3,223 – 3,205 Strong medium-term support – April low + extended Fibo 3. Suggested Trade Setup Preferred Scenario: SELL below 3,350 Entry: 3,345 – 3,347 Stop Loss: 3,351 Take Profit 1: 3,335 Take Profit 2: 3,330 Take Profit 3: 3,320 Ps : XAUUSD is retesting a major resistance zone without macro or technical catalysts for a sustained breakout. The best approach remains to sell at resistance and take profit near support, in alignment with the ongoing bearish trend. The strategy will be updated regularly – don’t forget to save and follow to stay ahead of market opportunities. The analysis was provided by @Henrybillion
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
5
$ORCL Beats Earnings – Flat Base Breakout?There is a lot to like about NYSE:ORCL both on the chart and fundamentals. Not only did they beat earnings and now get an upgrade (see below), but the stock has also now formed a flat base after earnings. What that means to me is that buyers have pushed the stock up and there are not enough sellers to bring it back down. I have an alert set at 215.01. If that triggers, I plan to open a full-sized position with a stop just under the most recent low (202.54). That is a 6% risk. Although, if it does not perform well right off the bat, I may close it on whatever day I open if it falls below the day low. All TBD. If you like this idea, please make it your own and follow your trading plan. Remember, it is your money at risk. Oracle rises as Stifel upgrades to 'buy' ** Stifel upgrades stock to "buy" from "hold", citing strong momentum in its Cloud business and disciplined cost management ** Increases PT to $250 from $180, implying an 18.91% upside to stock's last close ** "We believe Oracle is well positioned to accelerate total Application Cloud growth to the low teens range in FY26" - brokerage Oracle Beat Expectations Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 4:05 PM ET Oracle (ORCL) reported earnings of $1.69 per share on revenue of $15.90 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter ended May 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.64 per share on revenue of $15.54 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.66 per share. The company beat expectations by 1.81% while revenue grew 11.31% on a year-over-year basis.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by jaxdog
Report - 2 jully, 2025US Fiscal Policy & Political Outlook: Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill — dubbed the “big, beautiful bill” — took a major step forward with its razor-thin Senate passage (51-50), thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. The bill extends Trump’s first-term tax cuts, slashes healthcare and social welfare spending, and increases military and border security budgets. It also proposes eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, aiming to galvanize Trump’s core voter base. While the bill now moves to the House, it faces strong opposition even among Republicans. Fiscal hawks are deeply concerned about the bill’s projected $3.3 trillion addition to the deficit over the next decade (according to the Congressional Budget Office). Moderates object to Medicaid cuts, which threaten care for low-income Americans. The House vote will be crucial; if it passes before July 4 as Trump desires, it will mark a major policy victory — but at significant fiscal cost. From a market perspective, this bill’s passage heightens concerns over US debt sustainability, already a major factor in the dollar’s ongoing weakness. Bond investors are bracing for increased Treasury issuance, adding upward pressure to yields despite recent dovish signals from the Fed. Global Trade Dynamics & Tariff Strategy: Simultaneously, the White House is pursuing narrower, phased trade deals as Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline looms. While originally promising 90 trade agreements in 90 days, officials are now prioritizing small, targeted “agreements in principle” to avoid immediate trade shocks. Countries agreeing to narrower deals will escape the harshest “reciprocal” tariffs, maintaining a baseline 10% levy while negotiations continue. This two-track approach reflects both Trump's negotiating style and the complexity of global supply chains. Meanwhile, the EU is hardening its stance, demanding immediate tariff reductions and threatening retaliatory measures on €95 billion of US goods if talks fail. Japan, on the other hand, has stood firm on protecting its rice farmers, refusing to sacrifice domestic agricultural interests for tariff relief. These developments underscore the fragility of global trade flows. Investors should monitor sectors sensitive to tariffs (automotive, electronics, agricultural exports), as policy swings could impact earnings forecasts and supply chain costs. Monetary Policy & Central Bank Positioning: On monetary policy, Fed Chair Jay Powell hinted that a July rate cut is “not off the table,” softening his earlier stance. This flexibility follows Trump’s intensifying pressure for lower rates. Powell emphasized that decisions would remain “data-dependent,” highlighting strong jobs data and manufacturing strength as key considerations. Markets reacted by trimming near-term rate cut bets, with two-year Treasury yields rising. Nonetheless, longer-term expectations still price in multiple cuts by end-2026, supporting a softer dollar and equity gains in large US multinationals. In Europe, ECB policymaker Klaas Knot expressed surprise at the limited economic fallout from aggressive rate hikes, describing the current 2% policy rate as “neutral.” This sets the stage for potential stability in eurozone rates, with the ECB maintaining a vigilant eye on energy prices and trade war risks. Switzerland & EU Relations: Brexit Echoes: Switzerland’s agreement to secure continued access to the EU single market illustrates the tension between sovereignty and economic integration. The new framework would require Bern to adopt EU rules dynamically and contribute €375 million annually to the EU budget — sparking strong domestic debate reminiscent of Brexit tensions. Although offering improved market access (e.g., rejoining Horizon Europe and Erasmus), the deal weakens Switzerland’s direct democracy tradition by mandating rule adoption without a formal vote. The referendum scheduled by 2027 will be pivotal, with risks of economic isolation if rejected. For investors, stability in Swiss-EU ties is critical for sectors such as finance, pharmaceuticals, and industrial exports. A breakdown could disrupt supply chains and reduce Swiss competitiveness. China & Hong Kong Equity Divergence: Hong Kong’s equity market (+20% YTD) is decisively outpacing mainland China’s flat performance. The rally is fueled by flows into tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba, while A-shares lag due to weak consumer sentiment, deflationary pressures, and property market struggles. Mainland retail investors — who dominate A-share turnover — remain cautious amid falling home prices and tepid stimulus measures. Beijing’s conservative policy approach, possibly influenced by US trade tensions, is delaying more forceful intervention. For global investors, Hong Kong presents near-term upside due to its tech focus and valuation attractiveness, but mainland exposure demands caution until broader economic stimulus materializes. Bond Markets & Yield Dynamics: Gilt markets rallied after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested potential slowing of gilt sales (quantitative tightening), easing supply pressure. Similarly, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on restraining long-term debt issuance supported a rally in US Treasuries, with 30-year yields dipping to two-month lows before rebounding. Global long-duration bonds remain volatile, driven by fiscal policy risks (like Trump’s tax bill) and evolving central bank guidance. Investors should remain tactical, using duration exposure as a hedge but preparing for abrupt shifts in issuance strategy or inflation surprises. Health & Science Innovation: On the science front, a landmark Nature Genetics study highlighted stark differences in how cancer drugs damage healthy blood cells genetically. These findings could pave the way for more personalized chemotherapy, with fewer long-term side effects, especially in children. Such innovations support the thesis of accelerating healthcare sector breakthroughs, reinforcing bullish sentiment for biotech and specialized pharma companies. Market overview: US equities extended gains, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, while European stocks lagged amid trade war uncertainty. Gold rose above $3,330/oz on renewed safe-haven demand, while Brent crude held around $67/bbl after Middle East tensions eased.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
GbpAud - Sell IdeaAccording to last week's traders' report, retail traders changed the number of positions, being bullish on GA. In this way, institutions tend to move the price in the opposite direction In technical terms, there has been a sweep of Equal Highs on the higher-timeframes and the price, after catching all this liquidity, has changed structures. In addition, it is trading below the 4H and 1H EMA, respecting consecutive imbalances. Let's see how this trade goes. You vs You
by moneyconceptfx