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The pivotal technical threshold is $65 for the price of oil The price of US crude oil broke a major technical support in April The price of oil gave a technical red alert at the beginning of April after breaking a major long-term support, all against a complicated fundamental backdrop: the so-called reciprocal tariff trade war, geopolitical tensions and internal divisions within OPEC+. The immediate consequence: a sharp fall in prices, the steepest since the health crisis of 2020. Does this fall reflect economic reality, or is it the result of excessive negative sentiment? WTI has broken the technical threshold of $65, a pivotal level which had been the market peak ahead of the health crisis in early 2020. This multi-year support gave way under the blows of a market frightened by the prospect of a global recession, whereas it had been preserved since last September. But therein lies the nuance: it's not the recession itself that's at work, but the anticipation of a slowdown, fuelled by daily political and commercial volatility. At a fundamental level, the fall in the price of oil represents several factors: - The increased probability of a global economic recession linked to the uncertainty of the prospective international trade framework. - The new all-time record in US oil production and the Trump Administration's intensive drilling policy. - Strong dissension among OPEC+ member countries, which ultimately led to an increase in oil supply of over 400K barrels/day from May onwards, i.e. three times the volume initially forecast - Uncertainty over the evolution of global demand and rising production, it was this new supply/demand ratio that led to the break of the $65 technical support on US crude at the beginning of April. $65 is therefore the fundamental and technical pivot for the price of oil The message is twofold. Technically, the signal is crystal-clear: oil has broken a major support. Fundamentally, the scenario of a recession remains hypothetical, as the economic data have not yet validated it. The market is anticipating, often too fast, often too hard. An analysis of the historical price of US oil shows that the $65 threshold is a kind of frontier between optimistic and pessimistic economic expectations. Clearly, if the market holds below this resistance level, it will be a sign of a trade war that is still a long way off trade agreements. On the other hand, a return to the $65 mark would signal a return to a stable trading environment and a rise in the price of oil towards $80. Finally, from a macro point of view, an oil price below $65 could accelerate the disinflation process, bringing the FED closer to a pivot. April's fall in the price of oil on the commodities market would therefore be a blessing in disguise. 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NYMEX:CL1!
by Swissquote
Bitcoin Mid-Term Investment Signals: A Strong Buying OpportunityHey everyone, it's Tradevietstock again! The market is currently in an extreme fear state according to CNN Fear and Greed Index, which often signals a potential historical bottom across major trading assets, including the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Additionally, the BTC Inflow to Accumulation Addresses peaks, which means more and more large buyers enter the market. According to my Quantum Flux model, we are now witnessing the end of Phase 1 for Bitcoin, as it discounted around 30% — typically marking the conclusion of a bearish cycle. This model is flashing entry signals, suggesting that we are on the cusp of a new bullish wave. Based on this, I recommend considering entry at the current price zone. The future target for BTC remains around its previous highs — approximately $100,000. Looking back, we observed the exact same setup during the extreme fear period of June 2021. At that time, the Quantum Flux also indicated the end of Phase 1, and soon after, Bitcoin surged to its all-time high. We are now seeing identical patterns emerge, which I believe presents a compelling mid-term investment opportunity. My signals: Positions: BUY Take Profit: 100k This is a mid-term investment. Please stay alert to every major signals and your risk management.
Long
by TVSltd_algoindicators
ETH Bottom soonEth never hit the ritualistic new ATH for the bull run cycle leading many to believe it is next in line to break its previous ATH to the upside of 4700. However, given the current U.S. presidents reputation to do everything hard, and ETH's involvement with central banks, we are potentially due for a hard lading dip and rip scenario for ETH before it hits a new ATH. Here is the support arc I speculate to load up, and don't forget, double and triple bottoms make it more real.
PHEMEX:ETHUSD.PI
by ScalpPapi
USD Price Action Correlation with Bitcoin PriceIn the later stages of the liquidity cycle you have a devaluation of USD leading to bitcoin breaking out of its bullish trend into a parabolic trend. -Last 2 cycles this predictive correlation leaded bitcoins breakout by 4 to 6 months. -Current cycle DXY/Bitcoin charts look very similar to 2018 Taking this correlation into account, we could likely see the bullish trend on Bitcoin transform into a parabolic trend sometime between May and June. Meaning, we are in the final stages of a bottoming in Bitcoin at the time of this post, likely about to continue bullish momentum as we just went through significate market strain. Removing the possibilities of another Black Swan event, like a major geopolitical event but it is my belief that this was already priced in from the markets reaction just this month. This being said, there are no certainties. Things could always get worse. Time will tell, but given my aforementioned annalists, the buying opportunity at this current point is to great to ignore. Reward greatly outweighing the risk.
TVC:DXYLong
by merchtank19
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/17/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/17/2025 📈18594 18670 18740 📉18440 18365 18290 Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support! Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰 *These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by J3Trad3s
1
IQ Token Surges Over 48% as Volume Soars Amid Market OptimismThe IQ token saw a sharp 48.51% price increase in the last 24 hours, pushing its value to $0.005791. The market cap now stands at $123.02 million, reflecting renewed investor interest. Trading volume also surged by 1,409.49% within the same period, reaching $229 million. This rapid uptick in activity suggests a strong return of liquidity and momentum in the market. IQ powers the Agent Tokenization Platform (ATP), an ecosystem designed for developers building autonomous and self-governing AI agents. These agents can hold and control digital or physical assets, including cryptocurrencies, DeFi protocols, and even robotics systems. ATP positions IQ as the core utility token that governs these decentralized agents and facilitates interactions across platforms. The recent market movement appears tied to growing awareness of the platform’s utility and potential, especially in sectors combining AI and blockchain. As demand for verifiably autonomous systems rises, IQ's underlying use case could be gaining traction among forward-looking investors and developers. Technical Analysis On the IQ/USDT daily chart, the token recently bounced from long-standing horizontal support around $0.0038 after marking a low of $0.0032. A key resistance lies near $0.0058, the current market level, which has been previously tested multiple times. The price now hovers around the zone, where a breakout, retest and confirmation as support could lead to further upward continuation. For now, IQ shows signs of strength, but sustained momentum will depend on market conditions and follow-through buying pressure. If bullish momentum gets rejected at the current level, a potential drop to around $0.3839 could be possible.
Long
by DEXWireNews
OM Token Plunges 92% as MANTRA Initiates InvestigationOn April 13, MANTRA’s native token, OM, experienced a dramatic 92% drop in price, plummeting from over $7 to just $0.66. The sharp fall occurred around 18:28 UTC during a period of low market activity. This sudden crash erased most of OM’s recent gains, bringing the weekly loss to -89.73%. As of now, OM trades at $0.6591 with a daily decline of 9.68%. The token holds a market capitalization of $634.76 million, with 24-hour trading volume at $387.43 million, reflecting a 42.99% drop. MANTRA’s CEO, John Patrick Mullin, addressed the incident, clarifying that the collapse did not stem from any internal activity. He blamed the crash on “reckless forced closures” by centralized exchanges. Although no exchange was named, Mullin expressed concerns over the influence and decision-making power of these platforms, particularly during low liquidity windows such as Sunday evenings. In response to the unexpected decline, MANTRA launched an internal investigation to identify the root causes and verify the token’s current circulating supply. To restore investor confidence, the project also announced a token buyback and burn program. These actions aim to support holders and reinforce OM’s long-term stability. Technical Analysis The OM/USDT chart reveals aggressive selling pressure signaling panic selling. After peaking near $9.11, the price sharply reversed, erasing months of gains. The absence of any meaningful volume during the crash suggests that liquidity dried up rapidly, leading to cascading liquidations. The price now hovers around a potential psychological support zone, but sustained recovery will depend on renewed demand and market confidence.
CRYPTO:OMUSDShort
by DEXWireNews
Solana Climbs Amid Institutional Investments and ETF Backing Solana (SOL) has climbed to $134.35, marking a 0.89% gain over the last 24 hours and an impressive 20.39% increase over the past week. Its market capitalization now stands at $69.37 billion. Although 24-hour trading volume has declined by 14.73%, settling at $3.71 billion, bullish sentiment continues to build around the asset. Institutional interest has intensified. Real estate fintech company Janover recently added over $10 million in SOL to its treasury. With more than 163,000 SOL now under management, Janover is following a similar strategy to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin approach — buying, staking, and holding long-term. This move reinforces growing trust in Solana’s infrastructure and staking rewards. Support for Solana also extends to regulated investment channels. Canadian institutions have backed Solana-based ETFs, adding another layer of credibility. These developments suggest that SOL is transitioning from a speculative asset to a longer-term investment holding. Technical Analysis On the chart, Solana recently broke structure (BOS) to the downside, indicating a growing bearish momentum. However, price found support and bounced off after recording a low of $95. Currently, the price is trading towards a high at $147. If it breaks above the the resistance, the price could extend toward $180, with potential continuation. Alternatively, if the breakout fails, a retest of the $110 zone may follow. The volume remains moderate, signaling cautious participation. The recent bullish activity aligns with institutional accumulation and ETF exposure. Key levels to watch include $110 as support and $147 high as near-term resistance. A sustained move, break and close above $147 may confirm the next bullish leg for Solana.
CRYPTO:SOLUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Celanese Corp | CE | Long at $39.64Celanese Corp is another chemical company (like Dow Inc) crushed by tariffs and economic headwinds. It's dropped -78% in one year.... However, this is a very strong company with strong credit market interest and no immediate liquidity crisis. From a technical analysis perspective, this... like in 2008 and 2020... is the time to gather shares given it has reached the "abysmal crash" levels based on my selected simple moving averages. In the past, recovery to new highs has taken 1-2 years. History doesn't always repeat, but fear is opportunity in the stock market. If negative news continues to reign, a dip into the high $20's isn't out of the question. If the company can squeak through 2025 and not continue to stack debt (debt/equity=2.43x), the growth opportunity into 2027-2028 looks promising. I'm keeping my targets into 2026 low, but this could be a good buy and hold for the right investor. Targets: $47.00 $54.75
NYSE:CELong
by WorthlessViews
Trade Idea: US30 Short (SELL STOP)Technical Analysis Summary: Daily Chart (Macro View): • Trend: Bearish short-term (price is below the moving average, sharp recent drop). • MACD: Bearish momentum building with a deepening histogram. • RSI: At 42.22, pointing down – no oversold condition yet, so further downside is probable. 15-Minute Chart (Mid-Term Momentum): • Trend: Recently broke down from consolidation, failed to reclaim previous high. • MACD: Strong bearish crossover, deep in negative territory. • RSI: At 39.20, not oversold – room to fall. 3-Minute Chart (Entry Timing): • Trend: Weak recovery attempt stalled below moving average. • MACD: Flat to downtrend. • RSI: Around 40, suggesting more downside pressure without being oversold. ⸻ Fundamental Context (if relevant to US30): • Rising geopolitical tensions and weak earnings reports (assumed). • Dovish Fed fading, bond yields rising — bearish for equities. • Fear-driven sentiment often hurts cyclical indices like US30. ⸻ Trade Setup (SHORT): • Entry: 39595 (current price area as per charts). • Stop Loss (SL): 40087 (Above minor resistance and 15M consolidation top) • Take Profit (TP): 38650 (Recent support zone, room for price to breathe before demand zone) FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Short
by KeN-WeNzEl
Deflation in Our Time? Analyzing the Multifaceted Risk of a Deflationary Bust in the 21st Century United States Scene setting; =============================================================================== Shifting Focus from Inflation to a Latent Deflationary Threat =============================================================================== For decades, the dominant macroeconomic preoccupation in the United States, reflected in policy debates and market anxieties, has centered on managing inflation. The specter of rising prices eroding purchasing power has been the primary dragon for central bankers and governments to slay. However, lurking beneath these immediate concerns are powerful, long-term structural forces that converge to present a different, arguably more insidious, potential threat: a deflationary bust. Deflation, a sustained decrease in the general price level, can morph from seemingly benign cheaper goods ("good deflation") into a destructive economic vortex ("bad deflation") characterized by falling demand, contracting output, rising unemployment, crippling debt burdens, and financial instability. This essay looks into the confluence of factors; technological disruption demographic shifts unprecedented debt levels – These create a credible vulnerability to such a scenario in the US over the coming decades. It will further explore how policy choices, global trade dynamics, and speculative market behavior could act as amplifiers or triggers, transforming latent risk into acute crisis. While not predicting an inevitable outcome, this analysis aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the multifaceted nature of this significant long-term economic challenge. =============================================================================== Technological Double-Edged Sword: AI, Automation, and the Price Level =============================================================================== Technological advancement, particularly the accelerating capabilities of Artificial Intelligence, robotics, and digitalization, stands as perhaps the most potent and complex force influencing future price levels. Its impact is fundamentally dual-natured: -- The Promise of "Good Deflation" : Efficiency and Abundance: Technology inherently drives efficiency. AI can optimize supply chains, automate manufacturing processes, reduce energy consumption, and streamline service delivery, leading to lower production costs. These savings can translate into lower prices for consumers, boosting real incomes and living standards – a beneficial form of deflation. Furthermore, in the digital realm, AI pushes towards zero marginal cost production for information goods. The ability to generate personalized software, entertainment (films, music, games), designs, or sophisticated analysis on demand at negligible incremental cost represents a powerful deflationary force in these sectors, potentially leading to an unprecedented abundance of certain goods and services. -- The Peril of Disruption and Demand Destruction : The same technologies that promise efficiency also threaten widespread labor displacement. If automation eliminates jobs across various sectors (from manufacturing and logistics to white-collar professions like coding, design, and even legal analysis) faster than the economy can create new roles or adapt wage structures, the result could be significant unemployment or wage stagnation for large segments of the population. This directly undermines aggregate demand. Even if goods become cheaper, falling or insecure incomes prevent consumers from purchasing them, nullifying the benefits of lower prices. This risk is amplified by the "productivity paradox" – if AI adoption leads to job losses without simultaneously generating the massive, broad-based productivity gains needed to boost overall wealth and create new demand, the net effect could be strongly deflationary. The destruction of incomes in industries disrupted by zero-marginal-cost AI could further exacerbate this, crippling the vital income-spending-income cycle necessary for economic vitality. Uncertainty about future employment prospects can also trigger increased precautionary savings (hoarding), slowing the velocity of money and adding further deflationary pressure. =============================================================================== The Demographic Drag: An Aging Population and Shifting Consumption =============================================================================== Compounding the technological shifts are profound demographic changes underway in the United States. While not as advanced as in Japan or parts of Europe, the US population structure is undergoing significant transformation: The Aging Baby Boomer Cohort : The retirement of this large generation is leading to slower labor force growth and a higher dependency ratio (more retirees relative to workers). Shifting Consumption Patterns : Older populations typically exhibit different consumption behaviors. They tend to save a higher proportion of their income and spend less, particularly on durable goods, vehicles, and housing expansion, compared to younger, family-forming households. Their spending priorities often shift towards healthcare and services. Impact on Aggregate Demand : This demographic evolution acts as a persistent, gradual drag on overall consumer demand, which has historically been the primary engine of US economic growth. Reduced demand for goods and services exerts a gentle but constant downward pressure on prices and growth potential. While immigration can partially offset these trends, the underlying shift towards an older population profile contributes to a macroeconomic environment more susceptible to deflationary forces. It represents a structural headwind that makes the economy less resilient to negative shocks. ======================================================================== The Mountain of Debt: Vulnerability and the Debt-Deflation Spiral ======================================================================== Perhaps the most acute vulnerability amplifying the risk of a deflationary bust is the staggering level of debt accumulated across the US economy – encompassing government, corporate, and household sectors. Decades of low interest rates, financial innovation, and fiscal deficits have resulted in debt-to-GDP ratios hovering near historic highs. Scale and Scope : From towering federal deficits to increased corporate borrowing (often used for share buybacks rather than productive investment) and significant household mortgage and consumer debt, the US economy operates with substantial leverage. The Debt-Deflation Mechanism : As articulated by Irving Fisher, debt becomes exceptionally dangerous during deflation. When the general price level falls, the real burden of existing, nominally fixed debt increases. A dollar owed becomes harder to earn back when wages and prices are declining. This forces debtors (households, corporations, potentially even governments) into distress: -- Forced Deleveraging : Debtors must cut spending drastically to service or pay down debt. Businesses slash investment and payrolls; households cut consumption. -- Asset Fire Sales : To raise cash, debtors may be forced to sell assets (homes, stocks), further depressing asset prices and exacerbating the downturn. -- Demand Collapse : The combined effect of spending cuts and asset deflation crushes aggregate demand. -- Feedback Loop : Falling demand leads to further price declines, which further increases the real debt burden, triggering more defaults and spending cuts – a vicious downward spiral. Heightened Fragility : The sheer scale of existing debt means the US economy is acutely sensitive to this dynamic. Even a mild deflationary impulse could potentially trigger significant financial distress and initiate this destructive feedback loop, turning a manageable slowdown into a severe bust. =============================================================================== Amplifiers and Triggers: Igniting the Latent Risk =============================================================================== While the underlying forces create vulnerability, specific events or policy choices often act as catalysts, turning potential risk into reality. Several potential amplifiers and triggers exist in the current context: -- Policy Missteps : Abrupt or misjudged policy actions could destabilize the system. -- Monetary Policy Shock : An overly aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, perhaps reacting belatedly to persistent inflation, could dramatically raise borrowing costs, crush asset values held by indebted entities, and freeze credit markets, potentially triggering a deflationary collapse despite the initial inflationary trigger. -- Sudden Fiscal Austerity : A sharp, unexpected shift to fiscal consolidation (deep spending cuts, large tax hikes), potentially driven by political gridlock or a sudden panic over debt levels, could withdraw critical demand from the economy, tipping it into deflation. -- Disruptive Regulation : Hasty or poorly designed regulations targeting key sectors (e.g., finance, technology) could inadvertently curtail credit, destroy perceived wealth, or halt investment. -- Loss of Credibility : A rapid erosion of market confidence in US fiscal sustainability or the Federal Reserve's competence could lead to soaring interest rates (market-driven), capital flight, and financial chaos, potentially triggering a bust. Trade Wars and Deglobalization: Beyond specific tariffs (which can be inflationary for targeted goods), the broader trend of escalating trade friction and deglobalization acts primarily as a deflationary force on the overall economy. It reduces global efficiency, disrupts supply chains, dampens business investment due to uncertainty, and slows global growth, thereby weakening the capacity of economies worldwide to service debt and maintain demand. Speculative Unwinding and Retail Exposure: The significant increase in retail investor participation, often concentrated in highly speculative assets like meme stocks and cryptocurrencies, creates a specific vulnerability. A sharp, correlated downturn in these markets would trigger: -- Negative Wealth Effect : Millions feeling suddenly poorer would drastically cut discretionary spending. -- Confidence Collapse : Shattered confidence would lead to increased hoarding (precautionary savings) and delayed purchases. -- Direct Liquidity Shock : Forced selling and realized losses would directly reduce spending power. This mechanism provides a direct channel from financial market volatility to a sharp contraction in real economic activity, amplifying deflationary pressures. ======================================================================== Interactive Effects and the Downward Spiral ======================================================================== Crucially, these factors do not operate in isolation; their danger lies in their potential interaction and ability to create self-reinforcing negative feedback loops. Synergistic Weakness: Imagine technology displacing workers (reducing income) while an aging population inherently dampens demand, all within an economy saturated with debt. This combination is exceptionally fragile. Cascading Failures: A shock in one area (e.g., a tech stock collapse) can trigger deleveraging that worsens the debt problem, which then further reduces demand, validating initial pessimism and potentially leading to further price drops and layoffs. The Power of Expectations: Once businesses and consumers expect prices to fall, deflation can become entrenched. Businesses delay investment, and consumers postpone purchases, waiting for lower prices, thereby validating the expectation and deepening the slump. Breaking these expectations becomes incredibly difficult for policymakers. =============================================================================== Countervailing Forces =============================================================================== Despite these significant risks, a deflationary bust is not preordained. Several factors could counteract these trends or mitigate their impact: US Economic Dynamism: The US economy possesses inherent strengths, including a culture of innovation, relatively flexible labor markets (compared to some peers), and a deep pool of capital. Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflationary forces may counteract deflationary drivers. These include the costs associated with reshoring supply chains (deglobalization), massive investments required for the green energy transition, geopolitical instability impacting commodity prices, and potentially persistent labor bargaining power in certain sectors. Policy Responses: Governments and central banks are aware of deflation risks (particularly informed by Japan's experience). They possess tools like quantitative easing, negative interest rates (though controversial), forward guidance, and substantial fiscal stimulus (like direct payments or infrastructure spending) to combat deflationary pressures. Novel policies like Universal Basic Income (UBI) might even be considered in a future of AI-driven job displacement. The effectiveness and potential unintended consequences (e.g., fueling asset bubbles, future inflation risk) of these tools, especially near the zero lower bound, remain subjects of debate. =============================================================================== Vigilance in the Face of Structural Change =============================================================================== The risk of a deflationary bust in the United States over the coming decades is a credible, complex threat arising from the confluence of powerful structural forces. Transformative technology offers efficiency but risks income destruction; demographic shifts promise longer lives but dampen demand; accumulated debt fuels growth in the short term but creates profound fragility in the face of falling prices. These underlying vulnerabilities can be ignited by policy errors, geopolitical turmoil, or the unwinding of speculative excesses in financial markets, potentially trapping the economy in a debilitating downward spiral. While countervailing forces exist and policy tools are available, their efficacy in navigating such an unprecedented confluence of challenges remains uncertain. Addressing this latent risk requires more than traditional macroeconomic management. It demands forward-looking policies that foster inclusive growth, manage the societal transitions accompanying technological change, ensure long-term fiscal sustainability without triggering austerity shocks, promote financial stability that accounts for new forms of speculation, and maintain adaptability in the face of profound global shifts. Recognizing and proactively addressing the gathering chill of potential deflation is essential for securing long-term economic prosperity and stability in the 21st century.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
Solana (SOL) Market Overview – April 17, 2025As of April 17, 2025, Solana (SOL) is trading at approximately $134.55 USD, reflecting a 5.48% increase from the previous close. ⸻ 📈 Technical Analysis Price Action & Momentum: • Recent Performance: SOL has rebounded from lows near $120 to around $134.55, positioning itself as one of the top-performing altcoins recently. • Support & Resistance Levels: • Immediate Support: $120 – Crucial for sustaining the current bullish momentum. • Resistance Zone: $133 – $135 – A breakout above this range could unlock further upside. Key Indicators: • RSI: 53.90 – Neutral momentum • MACD: -3.01 – Slightly bearish • Stochastic Oscillator: 92.14 – Overbought territory • ADX: 19.10 – Weak trend strength ⸻ 🧭 Fundamental Analysis Network Strength: • High Throughput & Low Fees: Solana continues to dominate with its scalable and low-cost blockchain infrastructure. Institutional Interest: • ETF Activity: Five ETF filings as of March 2025 highlight increased institutional trust in Solana. Market Sentiment: • Fear & Greed Index: 29 – Market is in “Fear” zone, potentially creating long-term buying opportunities. ⸻ 🔍 Summary Solana is showing bullish recovery signs driven by positive price action and ETF momentum. However, technicals suggest a cautious approach in the short term due to overbought signals and weak trend strength. Fundamentally, Solana’s powerful infrastructure and institutional support could fuel long-term growth.
Long
by sorooshx
FHN: Bearish retest after channel break – more downside ahead?First Horizon Corporation is a regional U.S. banking company offering commercial, mortgage, and investment services. It operates mainly across the southern United States and is among the largest regional banks in its sector. Technical Analysis: FHN recently broke down from a long-term ascending channel and is now retesting the lower boundary as resistance. Price stalled near 18.65 with weakening bullish momentum. RSI is trending lower and volume on retest is soft. Key downside levels: 15.00, 13.50, and possibly 10.24 if weakness continues. Fundamentals: FHN faces headwinds from tightening monetary policy, rising credit costs, and profitability pressures. Regional banks are under investor scrutiny following sector instability. Latest earnings report showed declining margins and weaker guidance. Scenarios: Bearish bias – rejection at 18.65 → drop toward 15.00 → 13.50 → 10.24 Bullish reversal – break back above 18.65 → re-entry into channel toward 21.00+
NYSE:FHNShort
by TotoshkaTrades