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Fundamental Analysis

Short overview of monetary policyIt's a busy week for central bank monetary policies with the BoJ, FED, BoE and SNB all due this week. Current probabilities are as follows: Federal Reserve - 98.8% Hold @ 4.5% Bank of England - 88.3% Hold @ 4.25% Swiss National Bank - 100% Cut from 0.25% to 0.00% The FED will also be realising their economic projections and forward guidance including the updated dot plot, so market attention will be drawn towards this and accompanying press conference. As always, the BoE will be releasing their MPC votes so focus will shift towards these and comments made in policy summary. Both the FED and BoE may struggle to make a more dovish tilt with sticky inflation and uncertainty around geopolitical tensions and tariff negations. If any comments come for a more hawkish stance such as a higher revision for inflation or reduction in future rate cuts will promote and stronger USD and pairs such as USDCAD or USDCHF (whilst keeping safe haven plays in mind) could provide some good moves. Any surprise dovish comments likely hold a bigger potential for stronger initial moves in USD weakness. For this potential US equity upside such as the S&P or NASDAQ could provide good opportunity.
Education
by ElGore18
1
Skeptic | DXY Crash Alert: Epic Bearish Triggers Unleashed!heyy, traders, what’s good? It’s Skeptic ! 😎 Let’s dive into a full-on breakdown of DXY—the Dollar Index is making waves, and I’m hyped to unpack it. The 98.801 level looks busted with a pullback in play, and I’m expecting more action. Stick with me to the end as we rip through Daily and 4-Hour timeframes to catch the vibe and nail those triggers! 🚖 Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture So, US inflation data came in softer than expected recently, but DXY still dumped. You might be like, “Wait, shouldn’t lower inflation juice up the dollar?” Nah, here’s the deal: markets move on expectations, not just news. When something grows in the markets, it’s ‘cause traders are betting it’ll keep growing—and vice versa. For DXY, traders are sniffing out a US economic slowdown and expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, which could spark higher inflation later. That’s the double-whammy driving DXY’s drop, despite the tame inflation numbers. This is the biggest secret in markets—nobody talks about it, but it’s what I learned in econ class and see every day: markets run on expectations. 📚 Major Trend: Per Dow Theory, we’re in a bearish trend as long as we’re below 98.801 . Game Plan: While under this level, hunt longs on USD pairs like EUR/USD. If we break above 98.801, chill and let the market reform before jumping in. 4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Triggers Now, let’s get to the 4-hour chart for the real action—our long and short triggers: Short Trigger: A break below support at 98.017 could keep the bearish vibe rolling. RSI hitting oversold would be a dope confirmation. 😤 Long Trigger: Since the major trend is bearish, longs are against the flow, so keep risk tight and take profits quick. The trigger is a break above 98.801, but the main long trigger is smashing through 99.244. So, 99.244 is your go-to for longs. 💪 Pro Tip: Shorts align with the trend, so they’re safer, but longs need extra caution—small positions, tight stops, and don’t get greedy! Final Vibe Check That’s the DXY lowdown, fam! Markets are tricky, but if you stick to reasoning over hype, you’ll stay ahead. No FOMO, no hype, just reason —that’s how we roll at Skeptic Lab. Wanna dive deeper into risk management or another pair? Let me know! 🙌 💬 Let’s Talk! If this analysis got you pumped, smash that boost—it means a ton! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for vibing with me—keep trading sharp! ✌️
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
XAUUSD – GOLD BREATHER OR BREAKDOWN? UNLOCKING SMART MONEY ZONES🔍 MACRO & MARKET SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT Gold witnessed a sharp pullback after an overextended rally during the Asian session — catching many off guard... Meanwhile, the US Dollar climbed 0.7% on safe-haven demand and rising Fed rate speculation. Yet, gold’s dip appears more like a tactical liquidity sweep than a full-blown trend reversal... 🌍 Heightened geopolitical risks — especially escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, along with Trump’s latest remarks on Tehran — continue to fuel risk-off sentiment... 🛢️ Surging oil prices suggest capital rotation might be in play, as institutional flows shift between commodities and equities... 📝 Upcoming catalysts include the Fed’s interest rate decision and the US retail sales figures — any unexpected data could rattle markets and alter rate expectations swiftly. 📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE (M30 VIEW) The metal corrected sharply after an aggressive upside move triggered by Asian FOMO... EMA alignment (13, 34, 89, 200) is tightening — signalling potential early-stage trend reversal or consolidation... Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) beneath current price levels highlight areas where smart money may be waiting to reload positions... 🎯 TRADE SETUPS 🔵 BUY ZONE: 3345 – 3343 Stop Loss: 3339 Target Levels: 3350 → 3354 → 3358 → 3362 → 3366 → 3370 → 3380 → 3400 → ??? 🔎 Wait for clear bullish confirmation via price action or rejection candles during London or New York sessions before entry. 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3442 – 3444 Stop Loss: 3448 Target Levels: 3438 → 3434 → 3430 → 3425 → 3420 → 3410 → 3400 ⚠️ Only consider shorts on clean rejection from resistance, supported by strong bearish signals — avoid speculative entries in high-volatility conditions. 🧠 FINAL THOUGHTS Gold is operating within a classic smart money framework — stop hunts, liquidity grabs, and stealth accumulation... In uncertain macro conditions, precision and timing matter more than ever. Don’t chase the move — let price come to your level. 📌 Stay tuned for live updates during the Fed press conference and New York session.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EliseLunaTraders
4
Smart Money Zones Revealed (XAUUSD) Is Gold Just Breathing or Breaking? Smart Money Zones Revealed (XAUUSD) 🔍 Macro & Sentiment Overview Gold faced a sharp correction after a strong Asian session rally, which caught many traders off guard... While the US Dollar gained 0.7% due to safe-haven flows and Fed anticipation, gold's dip seems more like a liquidity sweep than a structural reversal... 🌍 Rising geopolitical tensions — especially Iran–Israel and Trump’s comments about Tehran — keep the fear premium alive… 🛢️ Meanwhile, oil prices are surging, and institutional funds might be rotating capital between commodities and equities... 📝 All eyes are now on the Fed’s rate decision and the US retail sales report — a potential "horror print" that could shock rate expectations and trigger high volatility across markets. 📉 Technical Breakdown (M30 Perspective) Price pulled back sharply after an overextended bullish move from Asian FOMO… EMAs (13, 34, 89, 200) show early signs of potential crossover — signaling caution for buyers… Liquidity gaps (FVG zones) below current price indicate a magnet for institutional fills… 🎯 Trade Setup 🔵 BUY ZONE: 3345 – 3343 Stop-Loss: 3339 Take Profits: 3350 → 3354 → 3358 → 3362 → 3366 → 3370 → 3380 → 3400 → ??? 🧠 Look for confirmation through price action and rejection candles during London/NY sessions before entering. 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3442 – 3444 Stop-Loss: 3448 Take Profits: 3438 → 3434 → 3430 → 3425 → 3420 → 3410 → 3400 ⚠️ Only short upon clean rejection and strong bearish confirmation patterns — avoid blind entries in this volatile phase. 🧠 Final Thoughts Gold is moving within a smart money playbook — triggering stop hunts and liquidity grabs. With macro uncertainty ahead, patience and precision matter more than ever. Let price come to your zones. Don’t chase. Let volatility serve you — not shake you. 📌 Follow this idea for live updates during the Fed press conference and NY session.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision Declining confidence in the US economy amid trade policy is undermining the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that US retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in May, compared to a 0.1% decline (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April. The figure was weaker than estimates of -0.7%. Meanwhile, US industrial production in May declined 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously (revised from 0%), worse than expectations of 0.1%. Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday. Markets now estimate a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September and then another in October, according to Reuters. The mood of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is supportive of the common currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end as the central bank is now in a “good position” to deal with the current uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on geopolitical risks. Israel is set to step up strikes on Tehran, while the US is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1460, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1260
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
What Happened to SPK?SPK’s Binance HODLer airdrop distributed 200M tokens (2% of total supply) to users who staked BNB between June 10–14. Recipients immediately sold ~300M SPK ($18M at peak prices), overwhelming demand. With 17% of supply circulating at launch, the sell-off triggered a liquidity crisis on exchanges like Bybit, where order books lacked depth to cushion the drop. This mirrors historical airdrop failures (Arbitrum, Starknet), where tokenomics prioritized short-term rewards over sustainable demand 👀
BINANCE:SPKUSDT
by FortuneAI
1
GBPUSD may form a false break of supportGBPUSD has wasted the entire daily move (ATR) and is forming a false break of the mirror level support and trading range support. The price fell on the background of the dollar growth (which is trading on the background of the global downtrend) Now, while the price is consolidating below the mirror level, sellers (physical persons) open deals. But, based on the situation and spent ATR when the price returns inside the range there will be a liquidation stage, which can provoke the price growth The price fixing above 1.34437 may be the beginning of a pullback (trend growth). Scenario: if the decline does not continue, and the price is able to consolidate above 1.3448, in this case we can expect a correction to 1.35, 1.353.
Long
by AndeWave
11
Why the Sudden Surge in Soybean Oil Prices?Recent sharp increases in Chicago soybean oil prices reflect a confluence of dynamic global and domestic factors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those impacting crude oil markets, have played a significant role, as evidenced by the recent surge in Brent crude futures following events in the Middle East. This volatility in the broader energy complex directly influences the cost and strategic value of alternative fuels, positioning soybean oil at the forefront of this market shift. A primary driver of this ascent is the transformative policy initiatives from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA's proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 represent an aggressive push towards increased domestic biofuel production. These mandates, significantly exceeding previous targets, aim to bolster U.S. energy security and provide substantial support for American agriculture by boosting demand for soybeans and their derivatives. Key changes, such as the transition to RIN equivalents and reduced RIN costs for imports, are designed to further incentivize domestic consumption and reshape market dynamics. This policy-driven demand fundamentally reorients the U.S. soybean oil market, causing Chicago Board of Trade futures to increasingly reflect internal American forces rather than global trends. This necessitates a shift in focus for traders towards physical market prices in other regions for international insights. The market has reacted swiftly, with notable increases in futures prices, a surge in open interest, and record trading volumes, indicating strong investor confidence in soybean oil's role within this evolving landscape. Concurrently, the new mandates exert pressure on imported biofuel feedstocks, further solidifying the emphasis on domestic supply. Ultimately, the rise of soybean oil prices signifies more than just market speculation; it marks a pivotal transformation. It positions soybean oil as an essential commodity within the U.S.'s energy independence strategy, where robust domestic demand, shaped by forward-looking policy, becomes the prevailing force. This transition underscores how intertwined agricultural markets now are with national energy objectives and global geopolitical stability.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by UDIS_View
BNB/USDT: Poised for a Bullish Rebound?BNB/USDT: Poised for a Bullish Rebound? BNB has tested the 640 support zone for the third time in recent days, signaling potential strength in this area. This level may mark the bottom of the ongoing bearish correction, with signs pointing to a possible upward movement in the coming days, as reflected in the chart. Key upside targets to watch: 661.50, 670.50, and 678.50. BNB has demonstrated resilience over an extended period, and the likelihood of further gains is increasing, especially with BTC maintaining strength amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
2
Gold June 18, 2025As of today, global financial markets are grappling with synchronized pressures from weak equity sentiment, elevated Treasury yields, central bank guidance, and commodity driven inflation expectations. The backdrop is heavily influenced by geopolitical volatility, a wave of global economic prints (Japan, Eurozone, and the U.S.), and FOMC projections signaling that the Federal Reserve remains cautious despite signs of inflation easing. In Japan, economic data pointed to a mixed recovery. The Reuters Tankan Index declined from 8 to 6, reflecting some weakness in manufacturing sentiment. However, Core Machinery Orders YoY posted a robust +6.6% vs. 4.0% forecast, while Exports contracted -1.7% and Imports plunged -7.7%, reducing the trade deficit significantly to -637.6B yen from -893B. These readings signal that despite external weakness, Japanese internal machinery demand remains resilient. Turning to Europe, the eurozone’s inflation data supports a growing disinflation trend. Headline CPI fell to 1.9% YoY from 2.2%, and Core CPI came in at 2.3% YoY vs. 2.7% prior. MoM readings for all CPI measures printed 0.0%, reinforcing that price momentum has stalled. The ECB’s Elderson and Lane both acknowledged this trend, setting the tone for a more dovish summer if wage data aligns. In the United States, today's schedule was dense with economic catalysts. Housing data was relatively firm: Building Permits came in near expectations (1.42M) and Housing Starts rose to 1.35M, up 1.6%. The labor market remains tight, with Initial Jobless Claims at 246K and the 4-week average holding steady at 240K. These numbers suggest continued economic resilience but not acceleration. The MBA Mortgage Rate stands at 6.93%, continuing to weigh on affordability. The EIA’s oil stock report showed a moderate -2.3M draw in crude, alongside a surprise +1.5M build in gasoline inventories, reflecting downstream bottlenecks more than demand weakness. The FOMC kept rates at 4.50% as expected, but the new dot plot projects only one cut in 2025, compared to the two previously expected. The Fed’s projections still assume inflation gradually moderating but highlight the risk of delaying easing into late Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 was unchanged at 3.5%, supporting the narrative of a soft landing without the urgency for rate relief. Equity markets reacted negatively to this macro landscape. The Dow fell -299 points (-0.70%), the S&P 500 lost -50.3 points (-0.83%), and the Nasdaq 100 dropped -218 points (-1.0%). The VIX spiked 12% to 21.40, pushing back into risk-off territory. All 11 S&P sectors closed lower, with Technology (-1.72%), Healthcare (-1.66%), and Consumer Discretionary (-1.72%) leading the decline. Energy (XLE) was the most resilient sector, closing flat as crude prices held firm. On a YTD basis, Technology still leads at +23.7%, followed by Communications (+25.4%) and Real Estate (+12.7%), but momentum is clearly weakening. Equity factor performance confirmed the defensive tone. All core size/value/growth matrices were negative, with small-cap value and growth both down -1.1%. Among qualitative factors, only Buybacks (+0.3%) and IPOs (unchanged) showed stability. Private equity, quality, and hedge fund proxies all underperformed. Momentum and low volatility outperformed slightly intraday, which often precedes late cycle rotations into capital preservation. In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields remained firm. The 2Y yield was at 3.956%, 10Y at 4.410%, and 30Y at 4.910%, maintaining a deeply inverted curve. This inversion continues to reflect recession hedging, although long-end yields are now rising on supply pressure. Treasury ETFs showed a modest recovery: TLT +1.22%, TLH +1.12%, and TIPs +0.52%, benefiting from short-covering after recent oversold levels. Investment-grade credit was strong: LQD +0.36%, Senior Loans +0.37%, and High Yield (HYG) was flat. Convertible bonds (CWB) remained under pressure at -0.50%, consistent with the growth unwind. Globally, developed markets declined broadly. The U.K. (EWU -1.2%), France (EWQ -1.4%), and Germany (EWG -1.3%) fell in tandem, echoing weak eurozone demand. Japan (EWJ -0.82%) and Australia (EWA -0.92%) also pulled back. Emerging markets underperformed significantly: China (FXI -1.6%), Brazil (EWZ -0.70%), and South Korea (EWY -2.60%) declined on risk aversion and a stronger U.S. dollar. Commodities provided a mixed signal. Crude oil spiked intraday, with WTI at $74.94 (+4.4%) and Brent at $73.71 (+4.6%), as geopolitical risk flared and stockpiles tightened. Heating oil rose +2.27%, while gasoline gained +1.34%. Natural gas added +0.81% on weather and storage expectations. Gold remained flat at $3,387.83, while silver outperformed with a +0.32% move. In agriculture, soybeans and wheat bounced, but corn (-0.88%) and sugar (-3.64%) slid on oversupply concerns. Yields globally show differentiated behavior. The U.S. 10Y yield is 4.41%, Germany’s 10Y stands at 2.53%, and the U.K. 10Y trades at 4.56%. The yield spread between U.S. and Japan remains wide, supporting USD/JPY structurally. The U.S. 30Y yield has stabilized at 4.91%, while Japan’s 30Y is at 2.93%. This spread continues to support carry trades and reinforces the need for Japan to intervene if the yen weakens past 145. All in all, markets are shifting into a cautious consolidation phase. The Fed's steady hand, modest disinflation in Europe, firm labor data, and rising real yields all point to a delicate balance. Investors should stay underweight long-duration bonds unless auction demand improves. Sector-wise, focus should remain on energy and defensives, while trimming growth and discretionary exposure. Commodities offer upside potential amid geopolitical risk, and real assets remain in favor.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
a comparison or integration of two trading concepts: 📉📈 The image presentsElliott Wave Theory and Smart Money Concepts (SMC), often associated with Wyckoff distribution/accumulation. 🌟 On the left side, there's an illustration of Elliott Wave Theory, showing a typical 5-wave impulse (labeled 1-2-3-4-5, presumably wave A) followed by a 3-wave corrective structure (labeled A-B-C). Within this, there's a smaller "Accumulation" phase depicted. ✅ On the right side, there's a diagram illustrating Smart Money Concepts/Wyckoff phases, specifically "Accumulation," "Manipulation," and "Distribution." This diagram shows how price moves through these phases, often with a false breakout (manipulation) before the true move. 🟢The overall implication of the image and its central text is that SMC principles, such as accumulation and distribution, can be observed or understood within the larger framework of Elliott Wave patterns. It suggests that SMC provides a more granular view of market behavior (identifying smart money footprints) that aligns with or unfolds within the Elliott Wave structures.
by Greenfireforex
Gold price analysis June 18Yesterday's D1 candle was a Doji candle. It shows the hesitation of buyers and sellers at the price near ATH. The h4 structure is a sustainable bullish wave structure and is heading towards higher hooks. The 3400 zone is the immediate resistance zone that Gold is heading towards. This zone will be the breakout zone for the confirmation of the candle closing above 3400. The profit-taking reaction zone of sellers at 3415 acts as a price reaction when the price uptrend returns and creates momentum towards 3443. On the other hand, the breakout point of 3472, if broken, will push the price to the support zone of 3343
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Part 3/4 Gold 1. Wars] – Gold jumped $200 after Russia invaded Ukraine (Feb 2022) – War in Gaza (Oct 2023): gold gapped up again – Risk of China–Taiwan, India–Pakistan, NATO–Russia all remain – Terrorism spikes = 10–20% gains in hours (example: 9/11) 2. Interest Rates] – Lower rates = weaker dollar = stronger gold – 2024: ECB cut 4x, FED 3x, BoC 5x – 2025: more cuts expected – Gold fell –15% in 2022 when rates rose — the inverse will now boost it 3. Central Banks Buying] – 2023: 1,037t added – Trend continues in 2024–25 – China diversifying away from USD 4. Inflation] – Gold protects against loss of fiat value – $1000 in gold (2014) = $1500 in 2024 5. China’s Role] – #1 consumer of gold – Jewelry demand: 2,168 tons in 2023 – Insurers now allowed to invest in bullion (potential $27.4B inflow) Conclusion: Everything aligns. BUY Gold. Long-term target: $5000
TVC:GOLD
by KenJi_Indicator_2
Gold fluctuates under pressure. Can it break out?Information summary: The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered the fifth day, Tel Aviv air raid alarms are frequent, and the fire of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated the panic of energy transportation, and safe-haven buying supports gold prices; Trump's contradictory statement of "peace talks + toughness" has exacerbated the market's differences on the direction of the conflict, and risk aversion has fluctuated repeatedly. In the early Asian session, spot gold fluctuated narrowly at $3,375, continuing the stalemate under the geopolitical conflict and the game of the US dollar. As the "king of safe havens", gold has recently bottomed out and rebounded based on the tension in the Middle East, and the current price fluctuates around 3,395. Market analysis: The four-hour chart shows that the moving average is sticking to wait for a breakthrough in the direction, and the short-term moving average is sticking to $3,380. The RSI indicator fluctuates around 50, suggesting that a breakthrough will be ushered in after a narrow consolidation; the lower rail support of the rising channel moves up to $3,370, and if it fails, it may test $3,350. At present, the price is repeatedly testing the resistance position of 3400. If the price stands above this position, it may continue to rise to around 3430. If it breaks the support of 3370 US dollars, it will look to 3360 US dollars. Operation strategy: Short near 3400, stop loss 3410, profit range 3370-3365. If the price falls back to around 3370, you can try to go long, and the profit point is around 3390.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
XAU/USD Bullish Reversal Toward 3,449XAU/USD Technical Analysis (30-Minute Chart) This chart shows a bullish breakout setup for Gold (XAU/USD) based on recent price action and technical indicators: --- 🔻 Support Zone & Trend Line: A descending support trend line has been drawn from earlier lows, showing a falling wedge structure. The key support zone between 3,367.825 and 3,388.370 has held firmly, confirming demand in this range. 📈 Bullish Reversal Formation: Price bounced off the support zone, suggesting a potential reversal. A breakout above the horizontal resistance near 3,388.370 is projected, with bullish momentum forming. 🎯 Target Levels: Immediate resistance: Around 3,388.370, which price is currently testing. Primary target: The yellow resistance zone near 3,449.485—if broken, it may confirm a strong upward trend. 📊 Volume Profile: Volume bars on the right show higher trading activity above 3,400, indicating potential resistance in that region. 📝 Summary: Gold is showing signs of a bullish reversal from the support trend line and key demand zone. A sustained move above 3,388.370 may lead to a rally toward the 3,449.485 resistance area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
3
Golden opportunity comes again!Gold fluctuated all day yesterday, and finally did not break the range we gave. Today we continue to focus on the strong support range of 3365-3360, because this position is also the important key support we gave yesterday. Today we continue to look for opportunities to go long when we step back. As long as the strong support position below is not broken, there will be hope for the bulls to make a comeback. From the current analysis of gold trends, gold continues to focus on the short-term support near 3375-3370 below, and the important support is around 3365-3360. The short-term focus is on the short-term suppression near 3400-3415 above. The operation is temporarily based on the range. There is a high probability that the short-term fluctuations will continue. Wait patiently for the key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy: Go long when gold steps back to 3375-3370, and cover long positions when it steps back to 3365-3360. The target is around 3380-3390-3400. If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
1
Gold may usher in new opportunities Key fundamental drivers - Middle East tensions and nuclear negotiations Despite the ongoing tensions, Iran's signal of restarting nuclear talks has reduced risk aversion, triggering an intraday sell-off in gold, and the market has digested the reduced possibility of escalation of the conflict. The turbulent situation in the Middle East remains a trigger for market volatility, and any downgrade/escalation signals may trigger sharp fluctuations in gold prices. - Fed policy and rate cut bets The Fed kept interest rates unchanged this week, but Powell's "data-dependent" stance has raised market expectations for a September rate cut to 60%. A dovish meeting statement could push gold prices above $3,400, while a delayed rate cut signal could drag gold prices to $3,350. Short-term outlook In the short term, gold prices may fluctuate between $3,350 and $3,450, and a breakthrough depends on: - Upside catalyst: Escalating tensions in the Middle East + weak retail sales data may push gold prices to $3,450. - Downside risks: Fed hawkish signals + fading geopolitical risks could push prices to $3,300. Key event risks - June 19: Fed policy meeting (expected to be dovish) - June 21: US CPI data (inflation indicator to measure the timing of rate cuts) - Middle East situation: progress in nuclear negotiations and conflict dynamics 💰Strategy Package Set gold price: 🔥Sell gold area: 3390-33396 SL 3400 TP1: 3380 US dollars TP2: 3375 US dollars 🔥Buy gold area: $3374-$3366 SL $3360 TP1: 3390 US dollars TP2: 3400 US dollars
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1