Fundamental Analysis
600pips+ Buy PotentialFollowing our successful sell trade, we've hit the third target at 1.6260. Now, we’re positioning ourselves for a rally to the upside. This setup aligns with a demand level and a liquidity sweep around 1.2642, along with wave formation analysis suggesting we're on track for the fifth wave – potentially the final rally before a significant drop projected in 2025.
Price is currently holding at a discount level, giving us an optimal entry point. We're targeting a move of approximately 600 pips, with the first target at 1.6595.
Stay tuned for updates on this setup, and remember: patience is part of the strategy.
BTC bullish breakout sets the stageThe past month
I recently decided to move all of my chart analysis posts from X over to TradingView, so I'm going to be picking up here where I left off over there. The last time I posted about COINBASE:BTCUSD I was watching the long term cup and handle pattern and how price was reacting to the upper resistance area of the handle. For the most part, price had been holding steady just below resistance ( FWB:67K ) then we got the breakout 2 week ago. At that point we have a confirmed breakout of the pattern. Price did pull back quickly but continued to hold above the breakout level which was a positive since, where it's been holding steady until yesterday...
The past day
Yesterday's election gave the catalyst to push BTC back up and to new all time highs. That essentially gives us a breakout, pullback and successful backtest of support which further solidifies this large cup and handle pattern. With all of that said we still use proper risk management as traders.
Looking ahead
As for the bigger picture, I think this sets up BTC for potentially a very large run. Using log targets off the 2021-2024 cup and handle, that gives a price target of just over $300,000. Whether the market will actually reach this target sooner rather than later remains to be seen, but we now have clear parameters to manage our position around. As for invalidation levels, the setup would become at risk if price reversed back below the breakout level in the near term or if price broke below the low of the handle in the long term. To keep the wind under the bulls sails we really want to see price holding above the top of the cup.
Fundamentals
I typically don't focus on fundamentals since I'm mainly a price action trader, but I think the impact of yesterday's elections can't be ignored. Yesterday's elections were one of the most significant fundamental shifts to the crypto space in years, as we saw a huge number of pro-crypto candidates win their seats (2:1 margin over the anti-crypto candidates). In addition to that we saw the most pro-crypto presidential candidate of our lifetime win the presidency. This will likely mark a new era of pro-crypto policy and the removal of some very powerful anti-crypto people, like Gary Gensler. This overwhelming victory for crypto lines up well with the bullish long term price action we've been seeing forming in BTC over the past year.
Downtrend continues - GOLD downGold (XAU/USD) came under heavy selling pressure ahead of the European market on Wednesday, falling to near $2,700, a near three-week low. With Republican candidate Donald Trump taking the lead in the US presidential race and potentially becoming the 47th president, the dollar has staged a strong rally, triggering a sell-off in gold.
Concerns about deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also pushed up US Treasury yields and shifted investors' interest away from non-yielding gold. In addition, the risk appetite shown by the strong rebound in US equity futures suggests that the Aussie could continue to fall against the US dollar.
The election result pushed gold back into the 2,700 support range, recovering in correction mode. Still maintain the upcoming gold support zone: 2700-2680
Sell: 2748-2750
SL 2755
TP1: 2740
TP2: 2725
TP3: 2715
Resale support: 2713
Buy: 2700-2702
SL 2695
TP1: 2708
TP2: 2715
TP3: 2730
GOLD REACHES NEW HEIGHTS AMID RISING SAFE-HAVEN DEMANDUS economic data
Positive news came from the jobless claims, which dropped to 241,000, much lower than expected and down from the revised 260,000 from the previous week. US retail sales also did better than predicted, rising by 0.4% from the month before, compared to an expected 0.3% increase. Nonetheless, positive retail sales and strong jobless claims are unlikely to alter the course of the Fed's monetary policy.
ECB rate cut
ECB cuts rates as expected and upcoming months will be crucial as the ECB evaluates economic conditions and decides on its future monetary policy approach.
US dollar index-
The US dollar index showed a minor decline due to profit booking. A break above 104 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to 92.2%, up from 89.50% just a week ago.
HELIUM MOBILE to 800x?- Mind Blowing!Helium Mobile CRYPTO:MOBILEUSD is one of those gems that are actually backed by solid fundamentals! MOBILE did 63x after a minor draw down after launch completing it's 1'st wave in 54 days! according to the Elliot Wave theory and has been consolidating for the last 325 days reaching the 61.8 level retracement which might be the close of its 2nd wave. We are close to embarking on the 3rd wave which is the fastest and most profitable wave which according to Elliot Wave theory can reach the 161.8 level which is about 800x from the current price. The coin currently has a MC ranking of 500ish on CoinMarketCap. If you consider Wyckoffs, we might be at the spring stage where the prices may jump to get back to fair prices real quick. Nova Labs have been focusing heavily on this project and it will scale pretty quick. With mass crypto adoption, Donald Trump in the office, COINBASE:BTCUSD making new highs and massive liquidity inflows more than 1000x is possible!!!! DYOR before you Ape into this amazing project!
USDCNY | Market outlook
The USD/CNY strengthened on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a weak Chinese economy put pressure on the Yuan.
Recent data from China revealed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while growth in new home prices also slowed during the same period.
Additionally, the property sector has yet to respond positively to Beijing's series of stimulus measures, continuing to drag down the overall economy.
USDMXN - Trump Sleeper Trade (100k+ Trade) With Trump projected to claim the White House after preliminary votes are in, all eyes turn to Mexico.
Trump has been an outspoken opponent of the "Border Crisis" and the loss of jobs to nearshored workers.
Trump has threatened Mexico with tariffs on both fronts and is projected to have the House and Senate's support when proposing ballots. Expect many Republican States to issue strong punitive measures AGAINST Mexico.
I expect the Peso to weaken to historic lows during this presidency. Target is 32, but could be more or less. This is made BEFORE Trump has taken office or made any decisions, however, Mexican Peso will still weaken until clarity is provided on why it shouldn't. FOREXCOM:USDMXN
Potential rate cut on 11/7, but this should be a minor event in comparison to the implications of a Trump Presidency.
XAUUSD Trade LogTrade Setup (2/11/2024) - XAUUSD Long in Daily FVG
1. Setup: Enter a long position within the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), identifying it as a support zone for a potential bullish move.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:4 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Entry confirmation: Wait for the price to enter the daily FVG and show signs of bullish support, such as a reversal candlestick pattern or rejection wick.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss below the lower boundary of the daily FVG to manage downside risk.
- Set take-profit at five times the stop-loss distance to achieve a 1:4 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Be aware of any major economic data releases or geopolitical developments that could influence gold prices.
- Confirm that price action within the FVG shows clear signs of bullish momentum to validate the entry.
USD/JPY Buyers Target Three-Month High as Yen WeakensTrump's familiar rhetoric on trade tariffs has led to renewed concern for Japanese exporters, particularly at a time when Japan's economic stability relies heavily on external support to maintain growth momentum. These concerns, coupled with increased risk aversion, have weakened the yen against the U.S. dollar. As a result, USD/JPY managed to erase losses from the previous week, signaling renewed strength for the dollar.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY has approached a critical level on the daily chart, with buyers testing the resistance at 153.875. This price level represents a key inflection point, as it marks the upper limit of the pair's rally that commenced on September 16. A decisive break above this resistance would open the door for further gains, targeting subsequent levels at 154.582, 155.481, 156.473, and eventually 157.180.
On the other hand, a failure to break through the 153.875 resistance level would embolden sellers, putting the focus back on the support levels at 152.883 and 151.277.
Key Events to Monitor
The minutes of the Bank of Japan's latest meeting indicated that policymakers remain cautiously optimistic about Japan's economic recovery and see opportunities for future rate hikes. This news has already prompted a reaction in U.S. Treasury yields, with the focus now turning to the upcoming 30-year Treasury bond auction on Wednesday. The outcome of this auction, along with ongoing U.S. election developments, could significantly impact the direction of U.S. yields, thereby affecting USD/JPY price action.
XAUUSD - Stops Swept - Trump Win They are so crafty all this is rigged to get fuel to head higher.
Larger stop the better. 1:1 perfect if u wana sleep at night.
Looks like Trump Gona Win
Simple Question to GTP
"Oy what is likey hood Gold Bullish or Weaker after Trump Win."
If Donald Trump were to win the election, several of his policies could potentially influence the price of gold. Here’s a breakdown of how those policies might impact gold’s direction:
Economic Uncertainty: Trump's policies, especially regarding trade, taxes, and deregulation, often create volatility in the markets. Gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, tends to benefit from periods of economic uncertainty or market instability, which could push prices higher.
Dollar Strength: Trump has previously advocated for a weaker dollar to boost U.S. exports. A weaker dollar generally supports gold prices, as it makes gold cheaper for international buyers.
Inflation Expectations: Trump's focus on economic growth, including potential infrastructure spending, could lead to increased inflationary pressures. Higher inflation tends to increase demand for gold as a hedge.
Interest Rate Impact: If Trump's policies lead to economic growth without aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, gold could benefit. Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
In summary, if Trump’s policies focus on economic growth with lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, it would likely support a bullish outlook for gold. However, any shift in policies or unexpected geopolitical developments could change the scenario.
Inflation never stops.
XAGUSD Trade Log Trade Setup (2/11/2024) - XAGUSD Long in Daily FVG
1. Setup: Enter a long position at the market open within the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), as price is currently deep within this potential support zone.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Entry confirmation: If already in the FVG, look for price stability or reversal signals (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns or rejection wicks) to confirm the entry.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss below the lower boundary of the daily FVG to manage downside risk.
- Set take-profit at twice the stop-loss distance to achieve a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Monitor for any relevant economic or geopolitical news that could affect silver's volatility.
- Ensure that the price action continues to support the long bias before committing fully to the trade.
Stock indices soar on Trump's decisive winUS stock index futures soared overnight as it became clear that Donald Trump was on course for a decisive win in the Presidential Election. It also looks as if Republicans could get a clean sweep by winning majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. The Dow was up well over 1,000 (2.9%) points for the first time since November 2022. Ahead of the vote, the major concern was that the result would be drawn out and disputed. This led to a jump in volatility and a sell-off across risk assets. As it happens, there has been no uncertainty. Donald Trump looked like the clear winner within a few hours of the polls closing. US stock indices had already posted a strongly positive session on Tuesday, making back most of the losses from the end of last week. It appeared that many traders were convinced that the polls were understating the positive momentum which showed up in Trump’s numbers over the last fortnight. But it’s worth pondering whether the strength of the stock market rally is due to Trump winning, or relief that there’s a clear and uncontested result. In truth, it’s probably a bit of both. The small-cap, domestically-focused Russell 2000 has outperformed, gaining over 6% this morning compared to 2% for the S&P 500. This is taken as a positive reaction to the Trump win, as he is seen as considerably more friendly to small US companies than Harris, due to his promise to cut taxes and tear up regulations. But Trump has also promised to increase tariffs in both scope and size. Again, this is probably more of a boost for domestically-focused corporations, although many economists argue that it will become a headwind for the US economy overall. In another sign that traders are reacting to a Trump win, Tesla soared 15% thanks to CEO Elon Musk’s endorsement and closeness to Trump. Banks have also reacted positively, as have US car manufacturers. The US dollar flew higher, while bond prices slumped. The yield on the key 10-year Treasury Note rose over 15 basis points to 4.44%, its highest level since early July. Policies announced by both Trump and Harris meant adding significantly to the US national debt, although Trump’s plans are potentially more damaging. This means a larger fiscal deficit and the risk that inflation takes off to the upside. Neither candidate made any mention of debt being on an unsustainable trajectory, so it looks like it will be down to the ‘bond vigilantes’ to curb fiscal excesses by driving up Treasury yields to painful levels. This may not be a major concern right now. But it is likely to be critical before the end of President Trump’s second term.
SBI Cards Stock AnalysisAnalysis of SBI Cards Stock Idea
Current Price: ₹697.40
Technical Overview:
* Double Bottom pattern with breakout.
Target Levels:
* ₹850 (initial)
* ₹1,000 (extended)
* ₹1,100 (ultimate)
* Strong support around ₹650-₹700 from breakout zone.
Fundamentals:
* Leading credit card issuer in India with strong revenue and profit growth.
* Positioned to benefit from growing digital payment adoption in India.
* Key risks include exposure to credit defaults, but SBI backing mitigates risk.
This could be a solid opportunity if the trend holds.
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