PENGU Price Outlook: Bullish Momentum BuildsPENGU shows signs of bullish strength on the charts. The MACD line is currently above the signal line, signaling positive momentum and increasing buying pressure. This crossover is typically viewed as a buy signal, suggesting bulls are gaining control.
A continued rally could send PENGU toward $0.0189.
However, failure to sustain this momentum might see the price drop back to $0.0037.
Fundamental Analysis
BSW Bull Trap:Binance Delisting + Weak Fundamentals = -50% AheadToday, I want to analyze the Biswap project ( BINANCE:BSWUSDT ) with the BSW token for you and examine the opportunity for a short position on the BSW token from a Fundamental and Technical perspective.
First, let's examine the conditions of the Biswap project from a Fundamental perspective.
Biswap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) built on the BNB Chain, offering features like token swaps, farming, staking, and an NFT marketplace. It became popular due to its very low trading fees (0.1%) and an aggressive referral & reward system.
However, the project is facing key fundamental issues:
Decline in trading volume and user activity
Drop in TVL rankings among DEX platforms
Inflationary tokenomics with constant reward emissions, increasing sell pressure
Most critically, Binance announced the delisting of BSW (effective July 4, 2025), shaking investor confidence severely .
In summary, while Biswap started strong, its fundamentals have weakened significantly, especially after the Binance delisting, which casts doubt over its future viability.
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In terms of Technical Analysis , the BSW token managed to reach the Heavy Resistance zone($0.060-$0.0315) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) with the previous hours' pump( more than +100% ), but then started to decline again.
In terms of Elliott wave theory , I consider the recent hours pump as a wave C of the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
I expect that given the delisting(soon) of the BSW token and the technical analysis of the BSW token, it will fall by at least -50% . In fact, this pump could act as a Bull Trap .
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $0.0422 = We can expect more pumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Biswap Analyze (BSWUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Centene Corp | CNC | Long at $35.00Centene Corp NYSE:CNC is a healthcare enterprise providing programs and services to under-insured and uninsured families, commercial organizations, and military families in the U.S. through Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and other segments. The stock dropped almost 40% this morning due to recent challenges, such as a $1.8B reduction in 2025 risk adjustment revenue and rising Medicaid costs (leading to withdrawal of 2025 earnings guidance). However, the company has a book value near $56, debt-to-equity of 0.7x (healthy), a current P/E of 5x, and a forward P/E of 9x.
It may be a few years before this stock recovers. But the price has entered my "crash" simple moving average area (currently between $32 and $36) and there is a price gap on the daily chart between $32 and $33 that will likely be closed before a move higher. Long-term, and potentially a new political administration, new life may enter this stock once again as the baby boom generation requires more healthcare services. But holding is not for the faint of heart...
Thus, at $35.00, NYSE:CNC is in a personal buy zone with a likely continued dip into the low $30s or high $20s before a slow move higher (where I will be accumulating more shares). Full disclosure: I am also a position holder in the $60s and cost averaging down.
Targets into 2028:
$45.00 (+28.6%)
$54.00 (+54.3%)
SharpLink Gaming Inc (SBET) - Falling Wedge & Inverse H&S🚀 SharpLink Gaming ( NASDAQ:SBET ) – Ethereum, Joe Lubin & a Bullish Setup
SharpLink Gaming has undergone a bold transformation: the company is now the largest public holder of Ethereum (ETH), with ~198,000 ETH acquired since June 2025. Over 95% of it is staked, already earning 200+ ETH in rewards – turning ETH into a yield-bearing treasury asset.
Driving this shift is Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and CEO of ConsenSys, who recently became Chairman of SharpLink. Under his leadership, SBET is betting big on Ethereum as “digital capital”, aiming to merge iGaming and Web3.
📊 Technical Setup:
SBET is forming a falling wedge and an inverse head and shoulders – both classic bullish reversal patterns. After a post-announcement retracement, the chart suggests growing potential for a breakout as fundamentals strengthen.
🧠 My thesis: This is MicroStrategy playbook 2.0 – but with ETH instead of BTC. SharpLink gives equity exposure to Ethereum + staking yield + visionary leadership.
🔔 Worth watching closely.
⚠️ Always do your own investment research and make your own decisions before investing.
XAUUSD Analysis – July 2–3, 2025: Resistance Holds Gold is currently trading around 3,337 USD, having tested the 3,350 USD resistance zone without a successful breakout. The price remains under pressure from key macroeconomic factors:
- The Dollar Index (DXY) is stable above 106 – a sign of continued demand for the greenback, which weakens gold.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hold around 4.35%, reinforcing the view that the Fed will keep interest rates high.
- The Core PCE report for June remains above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, decreasing expectations of a rate cut in Q3.
- Safe-haven demand is weak, as geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Eastern Europe remains subdued.
➡ Overall, these factors confirm that XAUUSD remains under bearish pressure in both the short and medium term, especially while key resistance remains intact.
1. Technical Analysis – XAUUSD on D1 Chart
- Price recently tested the 3,340 – 3,350 USD resistance zone, a confluence of:
Previous supply zone
- Fibonacci retracement 0.5–0.618 from 3,399 USD
- Key Change of Character (CHoCH) level
- RSI is forming a mild bearish divergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
- EMA20 and EMA50 are both sloping downward – confirming the prevailing bearish trend.
This setup is typical of a Sell on Rally pattern, with each retracement being rejected at strong resistance.
2. Key Technical Zones to Watch
Technical Role
- 3,350 – 3,340 Major resistance (Fibo 0.5–0.618 + supply + CHoCH)
- 3,294 – 3,285 Nearest support – previously a resistance-turned-support
- 3,255 – 3,235 Short-term target zone – June low
- 3,223 – 3,205 Strong medium-term support – April low + extended Fibo
3. Suggested Trade Setup
Preferred Scenario: SELL below 3,350
Entry: 3,345 – 3,347
Stop Loss: 3,351
Take Profit 1: 3,335
Take Profit 2: 3,330
Take Profit 3: 3,320
Ps : XAUUSD is retesting a major resistance zone without macro or technical catalysts for a sustained breakout. The best approach remains to sell at resistance and take profit near support, in alignment with the ongoing bearish trend.
The strategy will be updated regularly – don’t forget to save and follow to stay ahead of market opportunities.
The analysis was provided by @Henrybillion
$ORCL Beats Earnings – Flat Base Breakout?There is a lot to like about NYSE:ORCL both on the chart and fundamentals. Not only did they beat earnings and now get an upgrade (see below), but the stock has also now formed a flat base after earnings. What that means to me is that buyers have pushed the stock up and there are not enough sellers to bring it back down.
I have an alert set at 215.01. If that triggers, I plan to open a full-sized position with a stop just under the most recent low (202.54). That is a 6% risk. Although, if it does not perform well right off the bat, I may close it on whatever day I open if it falls below the day low. All TBD.
If you like this idea, please make it your own and follow your trading plan. Remember, it is your money at risk.
Oracle rises as Stifel upgrades to 'buy'
** Stifel upgrades stock to "buy" from "hold", citing strong momentum in its Cloud business and disciplined cost management
** Increases PT to $250 from $180, implying an 18.91% upside to stock's last close
** "We believe Oracle is well positioned to accelerate total Application Cloud growth to the low teens range in FY26" - brokerage
Oracle Beat Expectations
Wednesday, June 11, 2025 at 4:05 PM ET
Oracle (ORCL) reported earnings of $1.69 per share on revenue of $15.90 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter ended May 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.64 per share on revenue of $15.54 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.66 per share. The company beat expectations by 1.81% while revenue grew 11.31% on a year-over-year basis.
Report - 2 jully, 2025US Fiscal Policy & Political Outlook:
Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill — dubbed the “big, beautiful bill” — took a major step forward with its razor-thin Senate passage (51-50), thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. The bill extends Trump’s first-term tax cuts, slashes healthcare and social welfare spending, and increases military and border security budgets. It also proposes eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, aiming to galvanize Trump’s core voter base.
While the bill now moves to the House, it faces strong opposition even among Republicans. Fiscal hawks are deeply concerned about the bill’s projected $3.3 trillion addition to the deficit over the next decade (according to the Congressional Budget Office). Moderates object to Medicaid cuts, which threaten care for low-income Americans. The House vote will be crucial; if it passes before July 4 as Trump desires, it will mark a major policy victory — but at significant fiscal cost.
From a market perspective, this bill’s passage heightens concerns over US debt sustainability, already a major factor in the dollar’s ongoing weakness. Bond investors are bracing for increased Treasury issuance, adding upward pressure to yields despite recent dovish signals from the Fed.
Global Trade Dynamics & Tariff Strategy:
Simultaneously, the White House is pursuing narrower, phased trade deals as Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline looms. While originally promising 90 trade agreements in 90 days, officials are now prioritizing small, targeted “agreements in principle” to avoid immediate trade shocks.
Countries agreeing to narrower deals will escape the harshest “reciprocal” tariffs, maintaining a baseline 10% levy while negotiations continue. This two-track approach reflects both Trump's negotiating style and the complexity of global supply chains.
Meanwhile, the EU is hardening its stance, demanding immediate tariff reductions and threatening retaliatory measures on €95 billion of US goods if talks fail. Japan, on the other hand, has stood firm on protecting its rice farmers, refusing to sacrifice domestic agricultural interests for tariff relief.
These developments underscore the fragility of global trade flows. Investors should monitor sectors sensitive to tariffs (automotive, electronics, agricultural exports), as policy swings could impact earnings forecasts and supply chain costs.
Monetary Policy & Central Bank Positioning:
On monetary policy, Fed Chair Jay Powell hinted that a July rate cut is “not off the table,” softening his earlier stance. This flexibility follows Trump’s intensifying pressure for lower rates. Powell emphasized that decisions would remain “data-dependent,” highlighting strong jobs data and manufacturing strength as key considerations.
Markets reacted by trimming near-term rate cut bets, with two-year Treasury yields rising. Nonetheless, longer-term expectations still price in multiple cuts by end-2026, supporting a softer dollar and equity gains in large US multinationals.
In Europe, ECB policymaker Klaas Knot expressed surprise at the limited economic fallout from aggressive rate hikes, describing the current 2% policy rate as “neutral.” This sets the stage for potential stability in eurozone rates, with the ECB maintaining a vigilant eye on energy prices and trade war risks.
Switzerland & EU Relations: Brexit Echoes:
Switzerland’s agreement to secure continued access to the EU single market illustrates the tension between sovereignty and economic integration. The new framework would require Bern to adopt EU rules dynamically and contribute €375 million annually to the EU budget — sparking strong domestic debate reminiscent of Brexit tensions.
Although offering improved market access (e.g., rejoining Horizon Europe and Erasmus), the deal weakens Switzerland’s direct democracy tradition by mandating rule adoption without a formal vote. The referendum scheduled by 2027 will be pivotal, with risks of economic isolation if rejected.
For investors, stability in Swiss-EU ties is critical for sectors such as finance, pharmaceuticals, and industrial exports. A breakdown could disrupt supply chains and reduce Swiss competitiveness.
China & Hong Kong Equity Divergence:
Hong Kong’s equity market (+20% YTD) is decisively outpacing mainland China’s flat performance. The rally is fueled by flows into tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba, while A-shares lag due to weak consumer sentiment, deflationary pressures, and property market struggles.
Mainland retail investors — who dominate A-share turnover — remain cautious amid falling home prices and tepid stimulus measures. Beijing’s conservative policy approach, possibly influenced by US trade tensions, is delaying more forceful intervention.
For global investors, Hong Kong presents near-term upside due to its tech focus and valuation attractiveness, but mainland exposure demands caution until broader economic stimulus materializes.
Bond Markets & Yield Dynamics:
Gilt markets rallied after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested potential slowing of gilt sales (quantitative tightening), easing supply pressure. Similarly, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on restraining long-term debt issuance supported a rally in US Treasuries, with 30-year yields dipping to two-month lows before rebounding.
Global long-duration bonds remain volatile, driven by fiscal policy risks (like Trump’s tax bill) and evolving central bank guidance. Investors should remain tactical, using duration exposure as a hedge but preparing for abrupt shifts in issuance strategy or inflation surprises.
Health & Science Innovation:
On the science front, a landmark Nature Genetics study highlighted stark differences in how cancer drugs damage healthy blood cells genetically. These findings could pave the way for more personalized chemotherapy, with fewer long-term side effects, especially in children.
Such innovations support the thesis of accelerating healthcare sector breakthroughs, reinforcing bullish sentiment for biotech and specialized pharma companies.
Market overview:
US equities extended gains, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, while European stocks lagged amid trade war uncertainty. Gold rose above $3,330/oz on renewed safe-haven demand, while Brent crude held around $67/bbl after Middle East tensions eased.
The end of the downward trend for the dollar index on the stockAccording to market structure, a new bullish trend is approaching. The stock market clearly reflects the overvaluation of its main exchanges. Everything seems to indicate that there will be news about the Fed's strengthening of interest rates. Something will happen. Long-term entries for USDXYZ assets, and short XYZUSD. MY POINT OF VIEW ON THE STOCK MARKET.
GbpAud - Sell IdeaAccording to last week's traders' report, retail traders changed the number of positions, being bullish on GA.
In this way, institutions tend to move the price in the opposite direction
In technical terms, there has been a sweep of Equal Highs on the higher-timeframes and the price, after catching all this liquidity, has changed structures. In addition, it is trading below the 4H and 1H EMA, respecting consecutive imbalances.
Let's see how this trade goes.
You vs You
Usd/Cad Intra-Day Analysis 02-Jul-25Breaking down Usd/Cad key levels and areas of interest, in addition to the possible scenarios that could take place.
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TOTAL Q3 As Q2 closes, Q3 begins...
The 2nd quarter of 2025 made up for a lot of the losses of Q1 peaking at $3.5T in the middle of the quarter. Since the peak a steady downtrend channel has formed and continues to be the case going into Q3.
What can we expect to see in the next 3 months in the crypto market? For me there are two different scenarios that are bullish, and one that is bearish IMO:
Bullish scenario 1 - The most likely scenario I think is a breakout above the downtrend channel and a move towards the range top. My reasoning for this comes from what we know about the driving forces in the market. Just last week BTC ETFs had a $2.2B net inflow, MSTR bought another 4,980BTC for $531.9m, various ETFs on the way for other majors such as SOL. Crucially the M2 money supply is at a record ATH. What that means is huge demand and the means to purchase with a what feels like a deadline closing in.
Bullish scenario 2 - We see a trend continuation until the range midpoint which has provided support before. It would coincide with the bottom of the trend channel and therefor I believe would provide a good launchpad for long positions.
Bearish scenario - For me this is the least likely situation but one that must be prepared for, a loss of the range midpoint would be a major setback, one that would mean a potential revisit of the range low in a symmetrical move down mirroring Q2s move up. The reason I believe this is the least likely is there is just too much in favor of risk on assets like crypto currently, I've mentioned the fuel that is the M2 money supply piling up to be deployed. A US interest rate cut all but confirmed for September and the institutional race for acquiring these assets before it is too late.
In conclusion just keeping it simple on the chart, a breakout above the trend channel is a great long opportunity to target the highs.
If BTC continues the grind down a great place for it to turn bullish is the range midpoint as has happened previously.
In the event BTC loses the midpoint a retest of the weekly low would make sense to me.
Bitcoin long $600k- long Bitcoin targeting $10-12T market cap by 2028
- acceleration of companies accumulating Bitcoin + continuation of Saylor & Strategy's ongoing TWAP
- notable uptick in global concerns w/ having access to non-sovereign store of wealth not affected by government intervention + over-reliance on USD + US Debt
- Gold's current market cap: $23T. Bitcoin is incredibly more useful as a SOV that's transferable easily across nation states & easier to transact with between parties anywhere globally
- currently holding $100k support after selling off to ~$75k during tariff fears + austerity with DOGE + macro higher low from last year and held support from November election
- including improved crypto regulatory environment otw soon + general sentiment around crypto a lot more positive
GBP/CHF - Channel Breakout (02.07.2025)The GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.0956
2nd Resistance – 1.0996
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NATURAL GAS - Who can Predict this wild beast?Natural gas got demolished today, down over 8%.
The one headline we saw hitting the tape that is having some partial influence:
"Vessel Arrives at LNG Canada to Load First Cargo, Strengthening Global Supply Outlook – LNG Recap"
Today, we did hedge our core long UNG position with a short dated $56 put on EQT.
We are already green on that trade and looking for $56 level to come into play.
Natural gas volatility sure trades in a world of its own which is why it is key to size accordingly.
Critical moment! Where will gold go?After rebounding for two consecutive days, gold prices consolidated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Wednesday, hovering below a one-week high. Although the US dollar rebounded slightly and the market's improved risk appetite suppressed safe-haven demand, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and trade uncertainties limited the downside of gold prices. The market is waiting for the upcoming ADP and non-farm data to determine the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. The key technical resistance is $3,358.
Gold received a positive cross in June. At present, the monthly line has an upper shadow for three consecutive trading months, and the shadow is long, indicating that the upper selling pressure is relatively large; in this way, for the future market, we are more optimistic about the highs and falls. In the recent stage, gold is not interested in US data, but Trump frequently calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, which we still need to pay attention to. The sharp rise in gold in the past two days is not unrelated to the Fed's expectation of a rate cut. On the other hand, it is also related to the market rumor that the US President Trump's tariff deadline on July 9 is also related. If the US dollar index bottoms out and rebounds, ushering in a phased upward trend; then, it is bound to suppress gold.
Short-term resistance is yesterday's high point 3350-3360 area. If it breaks above, it is expected to hit 3375-80, and further 3400 mark; before breaking above 3400 area, there is still a large sweep range. If it goes up, the bulls will have a wave of acceleration, and the upper 3425 and 3450 may even hit the historical high. For the day, the 5-day moving average 3315 area will form a strong support after breaking through. If it rebounds and rushes higher, it cannot break below. Once it breaks below, the market will continue to fall, further 3300~3295, and then 3275 and 3255~45 areas; that is, the rise on Monday and Tuesday means the end of the bulls. Therefore, in terms of operation, the short-term relies on the 3315-3325 area to support low longs, and if it rises, it will continue to short with reference to the resistance area.
The Power of Setting SL and TP: Secret to Mastering Your TradeThe Power of Setting SL and TP: The Secret to Mastering Your Trade
Hey there, traders! 👋 Let’s talk about something that can make a world of difference in your trading journey – Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP). These simple tools may look basic, but they are essential for every trader to stay consistent and profitable in the long run.
In today’s post, we’ll dive into the importance of setting SL and TP for each trade and how these two tools can change your trading game. Whether you’re new to trading or have been in the game for a while, understanding and applying SL and TP correctly is key to building a solid and profitable trading strategy. Let’s get started!
1. What Exactly Are SL and TP?
Stop Loss (SL):
A Stop Loss is the level where you decide to cut your losses if the market moves against your trade. It's your safety net, ensuring that your losses stay manageable. For example, if you’re trading XAU/USD at $1800 and don’t want to lose more than $50, you’d set your SL at $1750.
Take Profit (TP):
Take Profit is the level at which you’ll close your trade once the price reaches your desired profit. This helps you lock in profits automatically, without the temptation to stay in the market too long. For example, if you think gold will rise to $1850, you’d set your TP at that level to secure the profit.
2. Why Are SL and TP Crucial?
A. Eliminating Emotion from Your Trades
One of the hardest challenges in trading is keeping emotions out of the equation. Fear and greed can cause you to hold onto losing positions for too long or exit too soon. SL and TP automate your exits, allowing you to trade with a clear plan and reduce emotional decision-making.
B. Managing Risk Like a Pro
Risk management is the backbone of any successful trading strategy. SL limits your losses by setting a predefined level where your trade will automatically close. Without SLs, you could risk losing more than you intended, which can damage your trading account.
C. Securing Consistent Profits
TP helps you to capture profits at the right time. Without it, you might let your profits slip away as the market moves against you. A TP ensures you don’t miss out on locking in gains when the market reaches your target.
D. Building Consistency
By setting SL and TP, you create a consistent and structured approach to your trading. If you trade with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio, where you risk $1 to make $2, you can build long-term profitability, even if you lose some trades along the way. Consistency is the key to success in trading.
3. How to Set SL and TP Like a Pro
A. Start with Proper Analysis
Before entering any trade, always analyze the market context. Use technical analysis (like support and resistance levels, Fibonacci, and trendlines) to place your SL and TP at logical levels. For example, set your SL slightly below support for a buy trade, or slightly above resistance for a sell trade.
B. Risk-to-Reward Ratio
A good rule of thumb is to have a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. This means if you risk $50 on a trade, you aim to make at least $100. This allows you to lose half of your trades but still come out ahead in the long run. Always set your TP in relation to your risk tolerance.
C. Use Indicators to Help
Use indicators like EMA, RSI, Fibonacci retracements, and pivot points to determine the best levels for your SL and TP. For example, if you see a strong bullish trend and are entering a buy position, placing your TP near the next Fibonacci extension level is a great strategy.
D. Keep Volatility in Mind
Market volatility plays a big role in where you place your SL and TP. In highly volatile markets, tight SL might get hit too early. Adjust your SL to reflect the market’s movement. Similarly, your TP should be flexible enough to account for volatility.
4. Benefits of Setting SL and TP
A. Reducing Emotional Trading
Emotional trading is the quickest way to lose money. SL and TP take emotion out of the equation, making trading more objective and disciplined. You know exactly when you’re getting in, and when to get out – no guessing!
B. Avoiding Overtrading
Without clear SL and TP levels, you might overtrade, holding positions for too long or exiting too early. This lack of structure leads to emotional decisions and bad habits. Having SL and TP in place ensures that you trade only when it makes sense.
C. Gaining Confidence
By setting clear SL and TP levels, you gain confidence in your trading strategy. You know that your risk is limited and your profits are protected. This allows you to trade with a calm mindset, focusing on quality trades instead of rushing into everything.
5. Conclusion
Setting SL and TP is one of the most important skills for any trader, whether you're new to the market or experienced. They help you manage risk, capture profits, and build a disciplined approach to trading. By incorporating SL and TP into your trading plan, you can protect your capital, lock in profits, and ensure consistent growth in your trading journey.
So remember, Plan your trade and trade your plan – and always set your SL and TP before entering any trade.
Happy Trading! Stay disciplined, stay profitable! 💰🚀
Proven Results | GBP/USD Trade Recap & Premium Signal AccessYesterday’s trades achieved 75% of all target levels, showcasing the consistency and precision behind my strategy. Today followed with another strong performance—first a successful long trade, then a clean short setup based on evolving price action and structure.
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JP Morgan (JPM) – Momentum Continuation SetupAfter a strong rebound from the spring lows, JPM shares have broken through a key resistance level and are holding above $260. With expanding Bollinger Bands and increasing volume, I’m looking for a continuation of the upward move.
Target: $280.47
Upside Potential: +4.68%
Stop-Loss: $232.26
Risk/Reward: controlled, with flexibility to adjust as the trend develops.
Fundamentally, JP Morgan remains one of the strongest players in the banking sector, delivering solid earnings and benefiting from the current macro environment.
ALVO13 – trading smart, growing strong.
SOLB | Descending Triangle Breakout – Targeting +34% MoveTicker: EURONEXT:SOLB (Solvay SA – Euronext Brussels)
📆 Timeframe: 4H (4-hour)
📉 Price: €31.58
📈 Pattern: Descending triangle breakout from horizontal support
📊 Breakout Probability : ~73% upward breakout (short-term triangle)
🔍 Technical Setup:
SOLB has successfully broken above a descending resistance line, bouncing off a solid horizontal support level near €28.00. This forms a bullish descending triangle breakout – a structure that historically resolves upward in short- to mid-term timeframes.
✅ Confirmed breakout from descending triangle
🟢 RSI pushing above 56 = bullish short-term momentum
📉 Defined support below = favorable risk/reward
🧠 Trade Plan:
📥 Entry Zone: €31.40–€31.70 (post-breakout confirmation)
⛔ Stop-Loss: Below €27.90 (under support base and triangle invalidation)
🎯 Upside Targets & ROIC (from €31.58):
Target Price Return
🎯 Target 1 €33.84 +7.15%
🎯 Target 2 €39.76 +25.9%
📊 Pattern Probability – Based on Bulkowski:
📐 Pattern: Descending Triangle (short-term breakout)
🔺 Upward breakout probability: ~73%
💹 Measured move confirms Target 2 if volume remains elevated
⚠️ Technical Signals to Watch:
🔎 Strong green candle breaking the triangle → initial confirmation
✅ RSI breakout with no bearish divergence = supports continuation
📈 Volume spike = buyer interest returning
💬 Solvay’s breakout is a classic textbook move off strong horizontal support.
This is a high-probability swing setup with tight risk and excellent upside potential.
#SOLB #BreakoutSetup #DescendingTriangle #TechnicalPattern #SwingTrade #TargetTraders
Wednesday 2 July: USD to recover short term? The general market mood remains positive, and particularly sentiment for the USD remains in the douldrums. All of a sudden, there is talk of three FED cuts by the end of the year (although I think that's a bit ambitious). A soft NFP report could cement multi year USD weakness.
But pre (Thursday's) NFP I suspect we could see some dollar profit taking.
Currently, I see 'risk on' short JPY (or CHF) as very viable, the risk to a trade would be USD liquidity if the dollar continues to weaken.
Recommended trade: AUD JPY long