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Fundamental Analysis

DOW/US30Team, time to go long DOW/US30 yesterday the market disappointed on the FED decision, i just cant believe the FED compare the inflation in 2020-2021 that is where the COVID and lock down. And compare to 2024. he should have cut the interest rate to ease the market. Given the fact the market is dropping 1000 points, i expect we should have some recover at least 200-300 points medium Target 1 at 39225 Target 2 at 39335-39420 Target 3 at 39560-39670 We should see the market pump in 2-3 hour time frame or recover.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by ActiveTraderRoom
Detailed Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index – 4-Hour TimefrWhat triggered the recent movements? As per analyst analysis, since February 20, 2025, the S&P 500 Index began a gradual decline, forming a clear downtrend that resulted in a total drop of approximately 21.14%. This sharp retreat was primarily driven by mounting investor concerns over President Donald Trump's foreign trade policies, particularly the increased tariffs on several countries, which led to widespread fear and uncertainty in financial markets, concerns about a potential global recession, slowing international trade, weakened economic growth and resurgence of inflationary pressure. After reaching the key support level at 4798.58, its lowest point since January 2024, the index saw a brief consolidation phase, before a major market-moving development occurred: the announcement of a 90-day suspension of tariffs on selected countries by the U.S. President. As per analyst interpretation, this event acted as a turning point, triggering a sharp rally of nearly 10% in a single session, which effectively broke the downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe and led to the formation of a new high (2), surpassing the last corrective peak (1). This confirmed a bullish reversal on the 4-hour chart. What’s next on the 4-hour chart? Although the index has shifted into an upward trajectory, a short-term pullback appears more likely at this stage, especially following the failure of trough (3) to break above the previous peak (2) at 5487 – a sign of weak bullish momentum. If the price breaks below the 5107.40 level, a further decline toward the 4948.10 support level is expected. This level could serve as a potential rebound zone, where bullish traders might regain control and resume the uptrend, possibly retargeting the 5487 peak. When is the bullish scenario invalidated? According to analysts, the current bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price breaks below 4798.58 and confirms a 4-hour candle close beneath it. This would strongly indicate a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish, prompting a reassessment of the medium-term trend. Important Note: This analysis strictly reflects price action and technical patterns on the 4-hour timeframe only.
CFI:US500
by CFI
AUD/USD – Swing Short from Resistance | Daily RangeI'm placing a sell limit order on AUD/USD at a key resistance level, with a take profit set at the bottom of the current daily range. This is a swing trade based on both technical structure and fundamental reasoning. Technically, price has been moving in a consolidation range on the daily chart, trading between the EMA 100 and EMA 200, which often signals indecision and potential reversal zones. The resistance I'm targeting has acted as a ceiling within this range. From a fundamental perspective, the USD has been under prolonged pressure due to political uncertainty and weakening investor confidence in the U.S. economy. However, this bearish momentum may be overextended — the DXY (Dollar Index) is currently testing the 99.600 level, a significant historical support. A potential bounce from this zone could bring USD strength back into the picture, increasing the probability of a reversal in AUD/USD. This trade idea aligns a technical resistance rejection with a possible USD recovery, making it a high-probability short setup in the current market context
Short
by Rikardo_Donatelo
4
GBPUSD Are the Bears back? I closed my previous long trade at 1.32274 after assessing the historical price action, fundamental data, and technical indicators. Now, I’m shifting my focus to waiting for bearish signals before entering a short position. Key Market Analysis Fundamental Overview U.S. Jobless Claims data came in stronger than expected (215K vs. 225K forecast), reinforcing USD strength, which could pressure GBP/USD lower. Continuing Jobless Claims were higher (1885K vs. 1870K forecast), showing some softness, but overall, labor market data supports a stronger dollar. Housing Starts dropped sharply (1.324M vs. 1.42M forecast), but Building Permits beat expectations (1.482M vs. 1.45M). This mixed housing data isn’t enough to offset USD’s strength from labor numbers. Technical Overview Immediate Resistance: 1.3245 – GBP/USD has struggled to break this level, indicating sellers are defending it. Major Resistance: 1.3265 – If price breaks above 1.3245, this would be the next selling opportunity before further upside. Immediate Support: 1.3225 – Holding this level is critical for bulls; failure could accelerate a move downward. Major Support: 1.3205 – If price falls below 1.3225, this will be the next logical downside target. My New Trade Plan: Waiting for Bearish Confirmation Now that I’ve closed my long trade, I’m waiting for a short entry based on the following setup: Best Bearish Entry: Between 1.32350–1.32450, close to resistance where sellers have been active. Confirmation Needed: I’ll wait for price rejection near 1.3245, along with weak momentum indicators before entering a short position. Next Steps I’ll monitor price action closely to confirm a strong rejection at 1.3245 before entering a short trade. If GBP/USD pushes above 1.3245 and holds, I’ll wait for a better short entry near 1.3265. If price breaks below 1.3225, I’ll assess the strength of the downward momentum and potentially enter a trade with 1.3205 as my first target. At this point, I’m patiently watching the market to ensure I have the strongest bearish setup before committing to a new position.
by Sel_Ali
BTC 4H VS 1D 200 EMAIt's quite a rare occurrence when the 200 EMA finds itself in a very similar position but right now BTC has that exact setup. On the 4H BTC is fighting the moving average for the 12th time since losing the support level at the beginning in February. At this time the bearish trend channel upper limit also coincides with this level now, IMO a big move is being setup, but the direction is unsure. On the daily we're seeing the moving average also in line with the trend resistance however the curve itself differs to the 4H in the way that it's levelling out from an uptrend, not levelling out from downtrend. Bullish scenario - Breaking out above the moving average and trend channel with strength I believe would start to bring buyers back. Now I would not expect buyers to come flooding in at once as many have been burned too many times trying to long a breakout only for it to be a fakeout. I could see many looking for a form of confirmation, be that a retest as new support or a new HH & HL structure. Bearish scenario - Yet another rejection off this level would be continuation of the downtrend with many adding to their shorts. This to me would be tied to the SPX/ Tradfi movements although those markets are much stronger than this time last week. In conclusion there is no clear sense of direction just yet but I think it's coming very soon. The chop we are seeing at the moment is a symptom of a lack of confidence and uncertainty in market conditions. Naturally this lends itself to a continuation of the downtrend but all it takes is a catalyst and some big believers to push BTC out above the downtrend to continue the bullrun. I think we get our answer soon.
by ProR35
Bears to Dominate the Euro @1.2000 Handle The ECB is set to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) cut after the April policy meeting, reducing the benchmark rate on the deposit facility to 2.25% from 2.5%, with the disinflation process remaining on track. That being said, my Short-Term Outlook: Euro Likely to Decline Lower interest rates reduce the returns investors can earn from euro-denominated assets (like bonds), making the euro less attractive globally. Because this cut was expected, a small decline might already be "priced in." However, if the ECB hints at more cuts to come or shows a dovish tone, the euro might fall further. My first TP for this week and early on Next week will be 1st Tp @1.2000 zone 2nd Tp aggressive traders with trailing sl.@1.10560 handle good luck
Short
by que
BTC in 17 April 2025Potential Major Move on Thursday, April 17, 2025 📍 📊 Based on an analysis of historical Bitcoin chart averages and similar patterns, there is a likelihood of a significant price movement on this date. This analysis is conducted using technical analysis and a detailed examination of Bitcoin’s movement averages. It suggests that approximately every 150 days after the start of a neutral trend, we can expect a sharp upward or downward move that sets the stage for the main trend in the future. 📅 As of the current date, March 29, 2025, there are about 18 days left until this significant event. You can follow the results of this analysis and the conducted review on TradingView on the specified date.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by EhsanZeydabadi
Orangeman vs The Federal Reverse: Season 1 (2018–2020)It all started in 2018... 🎬 🧱📈💼 March 21, 2018: Jerome Powell steps in as the new Fed Chair. Almost immediately, the Fed hikes rates from 1.50% to 1.75%, citing a strong U.S. economy. 💬📊🇺🇸 June 13, 2018: Another hike to 2.00%. Powell says the U.S. economy is “in great shape.” But markets? Not so thrilled. 🗣️📉🇺🇸 July 19, 2018: Enter The Orangeman—President Trump publicly attacks the Fed's policy, breaking tradition. He’s “not thrilled” with the hikes. 📉🏦 September 26, 2018: Yet another hike to 2.25%. The Fed stays firm. Trump? Getting louder. ❗😠💬 "I'm not happy with the Fed." – Trump ⚠️📉📉 December 19, 2018: Fourth hike of the year to 2.50%. Markets tank. Rumors swirl: Trump wants Powell gone. 🔥💣👔 Behind the scenes: Trump reportedly explores ways to dismiss Powell. The pressure is on. 📛🇺🇸📉 June 10, 2019: The battle heats up. Trump calls the hikes a “big mistake” and demands rate cuts. ✂️📉📉 July 31, 2019: Powell blinks. The Fed cuts rates by 0.25%—first cut since 2008. Trump tweets: 👎🐦💸 “Powell let us down.” ⬇️📉🔁 September 18, 2019: Second cut. ⚖️🔁🧩 October 30, 2019: Third consecutive cut. The Fed pivots completely. The Orangeman’s influence is undeniable. 🦠🧪📉 March 2020: COVID strikes. The Fed responds with emergency rate cuts. 🌀🧻💸 March 15 & 23, 2020: Rates slashed to near zero. QE infinity unleashed. Powell goes full printer mode. Bitcoin begins to stir... Season 1 closes with markets melting down, a pandemic, and the Fed surrendering to zero rates. But The Orangeman isn’t done... And The Federal Reverse still lurks in the shadows. Next up: tariffs, China, currency wars, and another campaign trail. 🐉💵⚔️ Season 2 is coming. Stay tuned... One tweets. The other tightens. Who controls our future? One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
3
It is critical to grasp the entry point when stepping backYesterday, the technical aspect of gold opened in the Asian session and immediately ushered in a strong bullish pull-up. The European session broke through and stood above the 3300 integer mark and entered a strong shock consolidation. The US gold price fluctuated repeatedly and stabilized above the 3300 integer mark and ushered in an accelerated pull-up. Finally, the gold price broke through the 3320 mark in the early morning and continued to rise to around 3350 and closed strongly. The daily K-line closed with a shock break and a long positive, and the daily increase reached 120 US dollars. The overall technical form has completely entered the rhythm of bullish squeeze. At present, all technical aspects are overbought, and short-term technical indicators are distorted. The overall rise logic is greatly affected by the external risk aversion sentiment. The bullish momentum still exists, and the retracement continues to look for opportunities to go long. However, it is worth noting that Friday is Good Friday, and today's weekly close will lead to profit-taking in the market. From the 4-hour analysis, today's lower support focuses on 3310-3305, and focuses on the important support of 3293-90. This position is also the watershed between the strength and weakness of the bulls and bears during the day. Be cautious about chasing more at high levels. I will prompt you with specific operating strategies during the session, so please pay attention in time. Gold operation strategy: 1. Go long when gold falls back to 3310-3305, and add to long position when it falls back to 3288-93. The target is 3345-3350.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Patrick-Daniel
XAUUSD: Gold is making new highs!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A downward correction of gold towards the demand ranges will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a fluctuation of $10-15 in each range. • Revised Year-End Outlook: The bank attributes the bullish outlook to increased central bank purchases, inflows into gold ETFs, and continued geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. • Risk Scenario: Should the Fed shift course due to concerns over U.S. debt or weakening confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency, gold could climb to $4,500 per ounce. One of the major forces behind this rally has been the weakening U.S. dollar under the Trump administration. Market participants are voicing three primary concerns fueling this sentiment: subpar U.S. economic growth, elevated inflation, and declining productivity. These fears stem from several core issues: 1. Tariffs: While intended to support domestic industry, tariffs are increasingly viewed as disruptive, raising fears of inflationary shocks and fragile supply chains—lessons painfully learned during the COVID era. 2. Economic Growth: Trump’s original growth agenda, centered on tax cuts and deregulation, has been overshadowed by other political developments. Many economists are uneasy about a government that seems willing to defy conventional economic principles—raising fears of repeating the failures of protectionist policies. 3. Budget Deficits: The U.S. is running a staggering 7% budget deficit relative to GDP despite low unemployment (~4%). This raises questions about how Trump’s proposed policies would be funded. 4. Erosion of International Norms: The U.S. dollar’s dominance relies on institutions like NATO, the WTO, and the United Nations, as well as global faith in the rule of law. These foundations are reportedly weakening. There are also emerging concerns from places like Beijing, pointing to American vulnerabilities—especially around intellectual property. In a world where IP rights are no longer respected, what value do American corporations really have? 5. Immigration: It remains unclear how much of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is substantive versus symbolic. What is clear, however, is that undocumented migrants have played a crucial role in suppressing inflation in key sectors like agriculture and hospitality. Without a clear plan to replace this workforce, cost pressures could intensify.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
3
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) – Lovin’ the GrowthCompany Snapshot: McDonald’s NYSE:MCD is the undisputed global leader in quick-service restaurants, with over 40,000 locations worldwide and a brand that resonates across generations. The company blends cultural relevance with operational excellence, continuously innovating to stay ahead of changing consumer trends. Key Catalysts: Pop Culture Marketing Wins 🎯 The Minecraft-themed Happy Meal creates emotional connection with younger audiences Drives family traffic, social media buzz, and larger basket sizes Reinforces McDonald’s strategy of tapping into nostalgia + digital engagement Smart Value Play 💸 The $5 combo hits at the perfect time amid inflationary pressure Maintains volume without sacrificing margin, appealing to price-sensitive consumers Combines affordability with iconic menu consistency Financial Strength & Dividend Power 💼 Over $214B market cap and reliable free cash flow engine A favorite for dividend growth investors, with a track record of consistent payouts Strong global real estate holdings provide stability and leverage for expansion Tech-Driven Operations 📲 Continued investment in mobile app, AI drive-thru, and kitchen automation Enhances customer experience and boosts operating efficiency Investment Outlook: ✅ Bullish Above: $278.00–$280.00 🚀 Upside Target: $370.00–$380.00 📈 Growth Drivers: Digital engagement, brand partnerships, resilient demand across economic cycles 📢 MCD: A timeless brand evolving with the times—one meal, one moment at a time. #MCD #Dividends #BrandPower #FastFoodInnovation #PopCultureMarketing
NYSE:MCDLong
by Richtv_official
Daily Analysis: 17-04-2025Spot gold continued its rally yesterday, closing the session with a 3.5% gain at 3343. This morning, the precious metal reached a new all-time high at 3358 but is now facing profit-taking following news of potential trade war negotiations. At the moment, as long as the price remains below yesterday’s closing level, we may see a pullback toward the 3300 level. On the other hand, if the previous high is broken, the 3382 level could emerge as a potential resistance. Today’s secondary U.S. economic data is not expected to cause significant market volatility, while the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut interest rates may provide mild support for gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by byyahyagold