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Fundamental Analysis

Long Entry – Technical & Fundamental Breakdown Technical Rationale: I’ve taken a long position following a liquidity grab during last night’s session. Price is still respecting the broader bullish structure, and the move down to $68.77 appeared to be a stop run, faking out breakout shorts. My next target is the weekly level around $70.50, assuming no major market shocks through the rest of the week. Fundamental Rationale: I remain unconvinced by the current peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, this is likely a slow-moving narrative, and the market seems to be discounting it for now. Supply constraints are still in play, particularly after the new U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil. Yesterday’s larger-than-expected API crude draw is also supporting prices. Meanwhile, ongoing conflict between Israel and Iranian proxies continues to disrupt Red Sea shipping, adding further pressure to global supply. COT Data Summary: Overall decline in positioning signals caution, not outright bullishness. Managed Money added to shorts a slight bearish tilt. Institutional positioning (Other Reportables) shows a mild bullish bias. The market appears to be watching key support levels and waiting on further fundamental catalysts.
FX:USOIL
by BlakqGold
ALTSEASON 2025Dear investors and traders, members of the Horban Brothers community! Today I come to you not with a warning of an impending crisis, but with the certainty that we are on the threshold of significant changes. The cryptocurrency market, which has been wavering in uncertainty for a long time, is finally entering a phase of active growth. Yes, you heard me right - from this moment, from today, we see all the signs that cryptocurrency is ready to take off. All the data points to this: institutional investment in cryptocurrency is up 400% year-on-year, regulation is becoming clearer, leading to increased confidence among the big players, and most importantly, technological innovation in blockchain continues to convince even the most skeptical. Make no mistake, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market will not go away, but those who are willing to accept these risks can expect rewards that are rarely seen in traditional markets. I'm not suggesting you rush out to buy everything, but carefully analyze those assets that show fundamental strength and technological resilience. Now is not the time to be passive. Check your portfolios, reassess your strategies. If you're still standing on the sidelines of cryptocurrencies, now is the time to get in on the action. But remember, this is not for the faint of heart - this is a game for those who are willing to study, analyze and act. This market, like any other, requires discipline and knowledge. Don't get caught up in emotions, don't fall for the hype, evaluate each project critically. But if you see that the project has potential, do not be afraid to invest. Remember that cryptocurrencies are not just tokens; they are the foundation of the future financial world. And that world is already beginning to take shape. Regards CFO Horban Brothers, Alex Kostenich
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by horbanbrothers
4
Golden Opportunities: Navigating the New Era of InvestmentFolks, we're witnessing something truly remarkable with XAUUSD. Gold's weekly uptrend is not just a blip on the radar; it's a beacon signaling a return to the fundamentals I've been harping on for ages. Recall my earlier insights? I pegged the long-term trend in Gold, and here we are, watching it soar. Trump's chatter about inflation and rates? It's like watching a chess game where each move by the Fed could be influenced by such rhetoric. The market, my friends, seems to be betting on this narrative, pricing in these potential shifts. Now, let's not forget the basics. Historically, precious metals dance to the tune of real interest rates - those inflation-adjusted numbers. Sure, during times of market panic or geopolitical tension, Gold might get caught in the crossfire as either a collateral darling or a safe haven. But in these calmer waters, it's the real rates that dictate the dance. So, keep your eyes on the prize. Gold isn't just shining; it's setting the stage for what might be a golden era in investment. Watch, learn, and maybe, just maybe, enjoy the ride as we navigate these waters together. Stay vigilant, and may your investments be as golden as your opportunities. Horban Brothers, Alex Kostenich
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by horbanbrothers
BTC Accumulation Zone: Technicals & Cyclical Entry StrategiesBitcoin’s long-term macro structure does not currently align with bear market conditions as defined by sustained price decay below key moving averages or a violation of multi-year structural support. Presently, the market exhibits characteristics of a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend, presenting asymmetric opportunities across micro, medium, and macro timeframes for participants who anchor decisions to quantifiable support/resistance zones, Fibonacci retracements, and volume-weighted price anchors. The current price regime between $70,000 and $80,000 represents a high-probability accumulation zone, validated by the incomplete Wave 5 extension (post-election rally), which implies unresolved cyclical momentum, historical fractal patterns suggesting Wave 5 extensions often retrace 38.2–50% of Wave 3, on-chain metrics such as dormant supply accumulation (declining exchange reserves) and rising HODLer net positions signaling smart money redistribution, and risk-reward asymmetry tied to the 78,000–73,000 zone’s alignment with the 2024 realized price (~$69,000) and the 200-day moving average. Position management should prioritize a dollar-cost averaging strategy within the 70,000–80,000 zone, weighted toward Fibonacci retracement levels (78.6%, 61.8%), and volatility-adjusted sizing using the Average True Range to align risk per trade with portfolio volatility targets. Behavioral risks such as retail panic (measured by Fear & Greed Index extremes) and media-driven FUD create liquidity voids exploitable by informed participants, while Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns (halving-driven supply shocks, four-year cycles) mirror 2013–2017 fractals, underscoring the asset’s asymmetric return profile. Disciplined investors recognize that volatility is the premium paid for non-correlated alpha, and Bitcoin’s current structure—anchored by on-chain fundamentals and cyclical tailwinds—rewards systematic, mathematically rigorous strategies focused on position sizing, risk management, and predefined triggers. Markets oscillate between fear and greed, and the 70,000–80,000 zone represents where capital is deployed by those who understand that risk is managed, not avoided, and that asymmetric opportunities arise from preparation rather than prediction. Ignoring noise and trusting data-driven analysis remains critical to navigating this phase. Alex Kostenich, Horban Brothers.
Long
by horbanbrothers
Gold hit 3300 , why not ? The Conference Board (a non-profit research organization in the United States, specializing in providing reports and analysis on economic issues, jobs, labor markets and long-term trends) announced on Tuesday that the US consumer confidence index fell to 92.9, down from a revised 100 in February. This data was weaker than expected, as economists had predicted a smaller decline, only falling to 94.2. Société Générale (SocGen - a large multinational bank based in France) has just announced its multi-asset portfolio strategy for the second quarter. The bank still holds 7% of its portfolio in gold and forecasts that the price of gold could reach $4,000/ounce. At 7%, gold remains the largest commodity position in SocGen’s portfolio. “Gold remains a strong asset amid the geopolitical reshaping of the US, which has triggered strong policy responses,” the analysts said. Although gold prices are currently hovering above $3,000 an ounce, SocGen expects gold prices to continue to rise. The French bank forecasts gold prices to average around $3,300 an ounce in the fourth quarter. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support gold as an important global currency, the analysts said. They also pointed to conditions that could push prices to $4,000 an ounce.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
AMD Potential Long. 85% Win Rate. Using the above chart as a Macro indicator you can see that the time to buy AMD has arrived. Each time the RSI moves to an oversold position in the 3 week we often see great returns. The exception being 2008 where the period was much longer than usual. Yesterday I finished back testing AMD from 1972 to 2025. I came out with a 85% win rate over those years. I did not use the chart above either as it would have created an unfair bias for my normal trading strategy and rules. 1994-1995ish was the first bad trade and another stumbling block was 2008-2009. As it was very drawn out and stop losses were triggered. Using the 85% Win Rate strategy and using the above chart shows us the following: RSI: Tickled the oversold zone. I am sceptical of this as I do not think the move will be a massive one as it barely touched the zone but in previous years we will still see a 30-40% move in similar cases. Phoenix Bollinger Bands: This indicates that price is where its suppose to be. On lower timeframes it also shows that price does have the potential to expand to 130-140 range. Strategy: The strategy that I use is indicating that the 2 week buy signal is 2 days away from confirming. I have the following things to do: 1) Update tomorrow if Buy Signal is confirmed. If was more aggressive I would be buying today but because its only a 85% win rate and not 90%+ like the others I will wait. 2) Regardless if price goes down from here or not. I will start to build a position from tomorrow. Sorry that I did not post all the charts etc in this one today. I am just a bit busy with my own trades and thought I would try get this out ASAP. Have a blessed day and Stay Adaptable.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Thundercat131
AAPL Bullish Opportunity – Momentum BuildingApple (AAPL) has recently pulled back and is now showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The price has bounced from key Fibonacci support and is reclaiming the 9 EMA — with bullish signals appearing on both MACD and RSI. 🔍 Technical Highlights: ✅ Bounce from 0.236 Fibonacci level ✅ MACD bullish cross forming with momentum picking up ✅ RSI climbing from oversold conditions ✅ Daily candles reclaiming the 9 EMA ✅ Room for continuation toward key retracement levels 📈 Fundamental Tailwinds: 🔹 Apple is entering the AI data center space, signaling a major expansion into infrastructure behind the scenes 🔹 The upcoming WWDC in June is expected to reveal powerful new AI software integrations across iOS and macOS 🔹 Apple remains one of the top “Magnificent 7” stocks, often leading institutional flows during tech recoveries 🔹 Anticipation is building ahead of new software announcements, which historically lift investor sentiment 📈 Trade Setup: 🟢 Entry Zone: $221–224 🔴 Stop Loss: Below $205 ✅ TP1: $228 – 0.382 Fibonacci ✅ TP2: $234 – 0.5 Fibonacci ✅ TP3: $248 – 0.618 Fibonacci / resistance zone Apple is now combining technical recovery with fresh fundamental momentum, creating a well-aligned opportunity for swing traders and position holders alike.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by ValchevFinance
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 26, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD exchange rate has been declining for the fifth consecutive trading day, as the price continues to test below 1.08000. The Euro is finding it difficult to regain its strength, as the absence of significant economic data from the EU leaves traders vulnerable to geopolitical headlines and market fluctuations resulting from US data releases. On Tuesday, the US Conference Board (CB) reported a rise in one-year consumer inflation expectations, which rose to 6.2% in March from 5.8% in February. Consumers are understandably concerned about the ongoing high prices of necessities, particularly eggs, and the potential inflationary impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The Central Bank's survey of consumer confidence also revealed a decline in future economic expectations, reaching a 12-year low of 65.2 in March, well below the 80.0 mark that typically signals a potential recession. These concerns have been further compounded by a warning from Moody's, a leading ratings agency, which has expressed concerns over the U.S. fiscal sustainability, particularly in light of mounting debt service challenges. Moody's has also forecast that the country's fiscal sustainability is likely to face a prolonged decline, a statement that could displease Donald Trump and his administration, who are currently in favour of a significant debt ceiling increase by Congress. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.07700, SL 1.08400, TP 1.06750
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
I’m keeping an eye on a potential global recession NASDAQ 100Hey everyone, here’s my quick take on the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and why I’m keeping an eye on a potential global recession: 1. Bearish Divergence on the Chart We’ve got the price pushing higher while the RSI is sloping lower—classic bearish divergence. It’s a big red flag that momentum isn’t matching price action. Sure, it doesn’t guarantee a drop, but it definitely makes me cautious about chasing new highs. 2. Rising Wedge / Channel The trendlines I’ve drawn suggest a rising wedge or narrowing channel. Those often break to the downside if buyers can’t keep the momentum going. I’m watching that lower boundary like a hawk—if we close below it, that’s usually a bearish signal. 3. Ichimoku Cloud Levels We’re still hanging around the top of the Cloud, which means the longer-term trend isn’t totally broken yet. But if price falls into the Cloud or below it—and the Tenkan-sen crosses under the Kijun-sen—that’s another sign that sellers might be taking control. 4. RSI Confirmation The RSI is showing that classic lower high pattern, which means the market’s losing steam. A drop below typical support ranges on the RSI (like 40-50) would back up the idea of a deeper pullback or correction. 5. Macro Picture & Recession Risks The NASDAQ 100 is a pretty good indicator of market sentiment, especially for big tech. If we see a bigger breakdown here, it might hint at broader economic weakness. Combine that with ongoing concerns about inflation, interest rates, and global supply issues, and we have a recipe for recession chatter to get louder. I’m not saying it’s a done deal, but the chart is telling me to stay on my toes. Bottom Line Yes, the chart is flashing bearish signals, and the macro environment is still uncertain. If we break below key support levels, it could be the start of a bigger downtrend—potentially lining up with a global economic slowdown.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by lukedotcom
Gold Price Analysis March 25The D1 gold candlestick confirmed a clear decline. Some late-day buying pressure around 3000 pushed the gold price a bit. H4 has formed a bearish wave with an important price of 3028. If H4 cannot break 3028 today, there will likely be a strong sell-off of gold at the end of the day. Trading scenario. Gold is pushing up from the 3015 price zone. Target in the European session is 3027-3028. If this zone cannot be broken at the end of the session, SELL and hold at 3008. If the US confirms a break of 3008, hold at 2983. In case of a break of 3028, the sellers are weak. Be careful of false break of 3028. If the break is real, wait for 3035 to SELL today. Gold does not push up to 3027 but closes below 3015, then SELL to 3008. At the end of the session, if it breaks 3008, hold to 2983. If it doesn't break, then BUY again to the 3008 area, target 3028.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Stablecoin liquidity = Bitcoin bullish thesis --> $109k?Can BTC soon climb to the $109,000 level thanks to stablecoin liquidity? Maybe yes! An increase in stablecoin market cap often signals more money entering the crypto space, indicating bullish sentiment as investors prepare to deploy capital. This increased liquidity can lead to smoother trading and attract more participants, potentially driving up Bitcoin's price. The chart clearly illustrates this relationship: Purple line ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT + CRYPTOCAP:USDC + CRYPTOCAP:DAI + CRYPTOCAP:USDEE market cap) shows steady growth Bitcoin candle chart ( COINBASE:BTCUSD price) follows with more volatile increases Blue line at the bottom: BTC and stablecoin correlation coefficient of 0.9 😊 This correlation can serve as a leading indicator for Bitcoin price movements. During downturns, investors might sell Bitcoin for stablecoins, but as sentiment shifts, this "dry powder" can quickly flow back, driving Bitcoin's price up. Adding to that, the long-term correlation coefficient between stablecoin liquidity market cap (USDT+USDC+DAI+USDE) and Bitcoin is 90%. So, yes, there's a strong long term correlation and usually BTC and stablecoin liquidity converge. According to my views on the stablecoin liquidity, the Bitcoin price should target the $109k level. Last time I made this analysis, Bitcoin jumped from $58k to my price target of FWB:73K in the span of 2 months. Let me know your thoughts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
2
My GBPAUD Long idea 26/03/2025The AUD currency has been seeing some weakness and if we look at the inflation it is relatively weakening. The inflation rate in Australia went from 2.8 to 2.4 and the interest rate for AUD is sitting at 4.1. The Pound has seen some love due to raising inflation narrative we are sitting at 3.0 and it is expected to drop to 2.9 with the interest rate sitting at 4.5. AUD interest rate projection -> Q1 4.1 -> Q2 3.85 -> Q3 3.85 -> Q4 3.6 GBP interest rate projection -> Q1 4.5 -> Q2 4.25 -> Q3 4.0 -> Q4 4.0 I would love to see the price make some pullbacks to the 50% fib or go a little below to the 100 EMA for a better RR. However, if you pull out the Bollinger Bands you will realize that the 4H price has bounced off of the lower Bollinger. And if you try drawing a FIB from the recent 4H Swing Low you will notice a bounce from the 50% level. I would try DCA or put a tight SL below 204738 maybe if price stays flat but slowly melting upwards.
Long
by stingotho