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GBP/JPY Rejection – Bearish Move ExpectedChart Description (GBP/JPY – 1H Timeframe): This GBP/JPY chart shows a strong resistance level around 196.566–196.693, where the price has been rejected multiple times (marked by the red arrow). After testing this resistance zone, the price is expected to drop. The chart suggests a sell setup: Entry: Near resistance zone (196.566) Target: Around 193.766 (marked with yellow dotted line) Stop-loss: Above the resistance at 196.710 The black arrows indicate the expected bearish move from resistance down to support. Summary: Price is rejecting a major resistance. Expecting a drop towards 193.766 — possible short opportunity.
Short
by forextrading110
What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?🔵 What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)? Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a timeless investment strategy that involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the asset's price. It’s one of the most effective ways to build a position over time while minimizing the impact of market volatility. The term "Dollar Cost Averaging" was popularized in the early 20th century by Benjamin Graham — the father of value investing and mentor to Warren Buffett. Graham advocated DCA as a way to remove emotions and guesswork from investing. By spreading out purchases, investors could avoid mistiming the market and reduce risk exposure. Today, DCA remains a core strategy for retail investors, especially in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies and growth stocks. 🔵 How Does DCA Work? The concept is simple: instead of investing a lump sum all at once, you break your total investment into smaller, equal parts and invest them over time — for example, weekly or monthly. Invest $100 every week into Bitcoin. Keep buying consistently — regardless of whether price goes up or down. Over time, this smooths out your average entry price. You buy more when price is low, and less when price is high. Example: If BTC is at $30,000 one month, you buy a small amount. If BTC drops to $25,000 the next month, you buy more units with the same $100. Over time, your entry price averages out — reducing the risk of buying at a peak. 🔵 Why Use DCA? DCA offers both psychological and mathematical advantages: Reduces timing risk: You don’t need to predict market tops or bottoms. Builds discipline: Encourages consistent investing habits. Prevents emotional mistakes: Avoids FOMO buying and panic selling. Smooths volatility: Especially useful in crypto or fast-moving assets. 🔵 Smart DCA: Buying Into Market Bottoms While classic DCA is powerful on its own, it becomes even more effective when combined with market structure. A popular approach is to only DCA when the asset is trading below its long-term average — such as the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) or using RSI (Relative Strength Index). What is the 200-day SMA? It’s the average closing price over the last 200 days — a key indicator of long-term trend direction. Why DCA Below the 200 SMA? Historically, many market bottoms occur below the 200 SMA. Using this as a filter helps you avoid accumulating during overvalued or overheated conditions. SDCA with RSI The Relative Strength Index (RSI) helps identify momentum exhaustion. When RSI drops below 30, it often marks deeply oversold conditions — especially on the daily chart for BTC. How to use it: Only DCA when price is below the 200-day SMA. You accumulate during crashes, fear, and corrections. Avoid buying when price is extended far above long-term value. 🔵 Scaling DCA Based on Undervaluation To further optimize the strategy, you can scale your DCA amounts depending on how far below the 200 SMA the price is. Example: Price is 5% below 200 SMA → invest normal amount. Price is 15% below → double your investment. Price is 25% below → triple your investment. This creates a dynamic DCA system that responds to market conditions — helping you build larger positions when prices are truly discounted. 🔵 When DCA Doesn’t Work Like any strategy, DCA has limitations. It’s not magic — just a system to reduce timing errors. In strong uptrends, a lump sum investment can outperform DCA. In declining assets with no recovery (bad fundamentals), DCA becomes risky. DCA works best on quality assets with long-term growth potential. Always combine DCA with research and risk management — don’t blindly accumulate assets just because they’re down. 🔵 Final Thoughts Dollar Cost Averaging isn’t about buying the exact bottom — it’s about consistency , discipline , and risk control . Whether you’re investing in Bitcoin, stocks, or ETFs, DCA offers a stress-free approach to enter the market and smooth out volatility over time. Smart traders take it one step further: using moving averages and structure to focus their DCA efforts where value is highest. DCA won’t make you rich overnight — but it will help you sleep at night. This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and invest responsibly.
Education
by BigBeluga
9
USD/JPY TESTS RESISTANCE AMID BOJ CAUTION, FED OUTLOOKIn the wake of the escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, markets have been reacting sharply. Focusing on USDJPY pair, as the conflict shows signs of intensifying, investors turned to traditional safe-haven assets notably the Japanese yen amid fears of a broader regional spillover. Beyond geopolitical tension in the Middle East, both economies are set to announce their interest rate decisions this week alongside economic outlook. At the end of Bank of Japan two days policy meeting earlier today, the Yen became a little stronger after the Bank of Japan said that it would keep interest rates at 0.5% and that it would slow down the process of reducing its balance sheet in 2025. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious tone, noting global risks and keeping the door open for further policy tightening if needed. On the other hand, the U.S., the retail sale would be on the wire by 4:30 PM GMT+4 (Dubai time). This key economic indicator will offer details about consumer spending trends, a major driver of the U.S. economy. Markets will closely watch the data for signs of economic strength or weakness, as it could influence expectations around future Federal Reserve policy decisions. While the most important on the calendar, is that Fed committee is due to convene today for a two-day policy meeting, which would end on Wednesday the 18th.Meanwhile, Markets has priced in 99.9% for the rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. TECHNICAL VIEW OF USDJPY; AND PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH OUT Away from the fundamental drivers, the USD/JPY pair initially dropped on Friday the 13th and was resisted around 142.79 as risk aversion drove demand for the yen. However, the move was tempered by ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar, underpinned by resilient U.S. economic data and expectations the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, hence the change of character (CHOCH) at 143.89, hence the reversal of trend from downtrend to uptrend on the one-hour time frame, whereby price is seen trading inside the channel with the green trendline acting as support and the red, resistance. The pair was recently supported at 144.40 and hovers around 145. In view of the economic releases, a break above 145.00 would likely usher in 145.40 and 145.80, while a break below 144.40 would mean that the bears are momentarily in control and price would potentially tank further towards 144.00 and 143.50 according to analyst, meanwhile break out of these levels are not ruled out.
by CFI
EURGBP: A Bullish Weekly OutlookEURGBP: A Bullish Weekly Outlook This is an analysis I shared last months from a weekly perspective. The chart shows that the price increased by approximately 500 pips. EURGBP tested an old weekly support zone that has consistently proven strong over time. Once again, the price reacted well, though it remains hesitant to extend its rise. However, bullish pressure is evident each time the price dips into the blue zone. In May, this area was tested again, and EURGBP responded clearly, reinforcing the significance of this support. Historically, EURGBP has tested this zone in 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2022, each time showing notable reactions. Following the start of an uptrend, EURGBP has previously gained between 400 to 900 pips, highlighting the potential strength of future movements. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Previous analysis:
Long
by KlejdiCuni
11
Oil Surges on Israel-Iran Nuclear Strike Fears🛢️ Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites are pushing oil ( BLACKBULL:WTI , BLACKBULL:BRENT ) higher! Bloomberg reports Trump’s G-7 exit and Tehran evacuation warning as Israel-Iran strikes intensify (June 17, 2025). Analysts warn of Strait of Hormuz risks, with 17M barrels/day at stake. 4H Chart Analysis: Price Action: WTI ( BLACKBULL:WTI ) broke $75 resistance (June 2025 high), exiting a 3-week range. Brent ( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) mirrors at $78. Volume: 4H volume spiked 15% vs. prior week, confirming breakout buying. Key Levels: Current Support: $75 (WTI), $78 (Brent) – former resistance, now support. Next Support: $73 (WTI), $76 (Brent) – prior range lows, tested twice in June. Context: Oil gained 2% this week, driven by Middle East supply fears, with WTI at a 1-month high. Trading Insight: The $75/$78 breakouts signal bullish momentum. $73-$76 is a key support zone for dips. Watch Iran retaliation news and volume for supply disruption clues. What’s your 4H oil trade? Post your setups! 👇 #OilPrice #WTI #Brent #IsraelIran #TradingView
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DCAChampion
Bank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate UnchangedBank of Japan Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged This morning, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released its interest rate decision, keeping the rate unchanged as widely expected. According to Forex Factory, the BOJ Policy Rate remains at 0.5%. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the following: → Japan’s economy is recovering moderately. → The Bank will continue raising rates if economic and inflationary conditions improve. → The situation surrounding trade tariffs remains highly uncertain. The fact that the decision was anticipated by markets is reflected in price action on the charts. Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart A brief spike in volatility occurred on the USD/JPY chart this morning, but it did not significantly alter the broader structure of price movements, which in June have formed a contracting triangle pattern. In recent days, the pair has been climbing from the lower boundary of the triangle toward the upper edge, forming a short-term ascending channel (highlighted in blue). However, in the near term, this bullish momentum may weaken as the USD/JPY rate approaches the upper boundary of the triangle, which coincides with the psychologically significant level of 145 yen to the dollar (indicated by arrows). From a medium-term perspective, traders should watch for a potential breakout from the triangle pattern, which could trigger a meaningful trend. One possible catalyst could be news of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Why Silver Could Outperform Gold in the Coming Months? Silver recently broke out above the key 34.85 resistance level, and this could be a game changer for the medium-term outlook. With rising concerns over government debt, trade uncertainty, and escalating geopolitical risks, gold rallied strongly from 2000 to 3500. Gold and silver typically have a high correlation, and silver tends to follow gold. However, during the latest tariff-driven rally, gold pushed toward 3500 while silver failed to keep up. So, why did gold outperform silver this time? The answer lies in the demand dynamics. Gold demand primarily comes from the investment side, while silver demand has traditionally been balanced around 50% investment and 50% industrial use. That balance has now shifted significantly. According to the Silver Institute, only 17.8% of 2025 silver demand is expected to come from investments. If we group jewelry and silverware with investment as a “store of value” category, the mix becomes 61% industrial and 39% investment. This shift has been driven by a surge in silver demand from the electrical and electronics sector. The growth of clean energy and AI technologies has accelerated silver usage. In fact, the electrical and electronics sector is projected to account for 40.5% of total silver demand in 2025. This explains why slowing global trade and economic activity have had a more negative effect on silver compared to gold, pushing the gold/silver ratio to historically high levels. That said, this same dynamic could fuel silver’s rise in the coming years, supported by long-term trends in clean energy and advanced technology. The breakout of 34.85 is a significant technical development . Silver has been in an active uptrend channel since 2024, but the 34.85 level repeatedly capped upward moves since October. With this breakout, silver now has room to rise gradually toward the upper boundary of the channel, potentially reaching near 40. Key support levels to watch are 34.85 and 34.45. As long as they hold, the primary direction remains upward. The moves may be gradual but could include sharp surges and continuation patterns like flags.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by ftdsystem
Gold June 17, 2025As of today, the market continues to grapple with elevated U.S. debt issuance concerns, stubborn inflation pressures, and shifts in global demand for Treasuries. The newly surfaced economic editorial emphasizes a core macro concern: the United States' soaring public debt, now pushing toward $29 trillion in outstanding Treasuries, equivalent to roughly 95% of GDP. The issuance has notably skewed toward long-duration instruments, with the Treasury borrowing heavier through notes and bonds, particularly with $1.8 trillion in deficit projected in 2024 alone. This surge in long-term supply places upward pressure on yields — especially in the absence of strong foreign demand, which has been in steady decline. In the backdrop, recent performance in U.S. equity sectors reveals a pivot toward value and inflation-sensitive segments. Energy (XLE) has outperformed on both a 1D (+1.63%) and YTD basis (+9.11%), signaling real-asset rotation. Communications (XLC +1.72%) and Technology (XLK +1.62%) show strength, likely reflecting a rebound from oversold levels. Financials (XLF), however, remain volatile, with capital continuing to favor sectors like Industrials (XLI +0.65%) and Materials (XLB +0.85%) as proxies for infrastructure and dollar hedging. Real Estate (XLRE +0.87%) is showing a temporary bounce, but remains a laggard over the longer term due to yield sensitivity. Factor performance is confirming this rotation narrative. IPOs (+1.2%), spin-offs (+0.3%), and buybacks (+0.3%) are leading the qualitative factors, while style preferences are leaning toward growth and small-cap recovery, albeit from deeply underperforming levels YTD. Momentum and low-volatility factors are currently lagging. On a size-style basis, Mid-Cap Growth and Small-Cap Growth are recovering modestly, but the broader landscape suggests market participants are still defensive and selectively rotating. The fixed income landscape remains under stress. U.S. Treasury ETF performance continues to reflect pressure at the longer end. The 20Y (TLT) and 30Y durations have lost between -0.77% to -1.03% over the latest session, signaling reluctance from institutional buyers to absorb long-end supply without higher compensation. Across the curve, U.S. yields remain elevated, with the 2Y at 3.958%, 10Y at 4.428%, and 30Y at 4.933%. Notably, international yields remain divergent — Japan's 30Y yield has reached 2.335%, while the U.K. 30Y sits at 5.276%, reflecting inflation persistence in developed Europe. Meanwhile, the credit complex is firming in high-grade corners. ETFs like LQD (+0.36%) and BLKN (+0.34%) are gaining, while high-yield names (HYG: flat) and convertibles (-0.01%) remain flat or down. Preferred stock and floating rate paper are being held as rate-insulated yield vehicles. International credit is mixed — EMLC (Local EM Bonds) is positive (+0.11%), while USD-based emerging debt (EMB) is flat. Commodities are providing solid macro signals. Brent crude is up +1.73%, WTI +1.67%, and natural gas +0.58%, highlighting a renewed inflation hedge dynamic. Gold (XAUUSD) is slightly down at $3,382.06 (-0.04%), but remains near breakout levels with YTD performance near +29%. Silver and copper continue to hold recent gains, while agriculture is mixed: Corn (-2.14%) and Sugar (-1.16%) are under pressure, while Soybeans, Wheat, and Live Cattle are in mild recovery. On the global equities side, South Korea, Brazil, and India lead EM flows, buoyed by rising commodity prices and a modestly weaker USD. Brazil (EWZ) is up 1.8% YTD and climbing, South Korea (EWY) is at +1.3%, and India (EPI) continues to trend higher. Developed markets (France, Germany, U.K.) are soft, while Canada (+26.9% YTD) remains a notable outperformer, aided by energy and resource exports. In the U.S., SPY is up 0.95% on the day and +12.45% YTD. In terms of actionable positioning: gold remains a buy on dips as long as real yields stay capped and auction demand remains cautious. U.S. long-end bonds are to be avoided or shorted on rallies given increasing supply and muted demand. Energy and materials sectors continue to offer inflation protection, while financials and REITs should be traded tactically around auction and CPI prints. Equity allocations should lean toward value/momentum hybrids with capital discipline and dividend backing, while growth/multiple expansion names should be watched closely for signs of overextension. All in all, market behavior is currently being dictated by a blend of inflation expectations, sovereign credit concerns (especially U.S. debt overhang), and rotation into defensively pro-cyclical sectors. With the Treasury supply pipeline growing and buyers rotating away from long bonds, the next key market catalyst will likely emerge from either a weak bond auction or a sharp reacceleration in core inflation. Until then, portfolios should be tactically balanced, yield-aware, and commodity-hedged.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
bitcoin is testing the median for me, ema20 is my indicator in the daily chart which it'll determine the following downtrend. if we break it today, i'm expecting to see it go straight to 90k. no more re testing in the green area from my pov. but these are just expectations. bitcoin is about to do some cleansing that hopefully from institutions. they are making ti a gambling machine for enterprise and private hedge funds. it's corrupted money trying to rotten bitcoin clean energy. at this point on-chain developers are working to facilitate this transactions thinking it's for the good sake of bitcoin, when the narrative is still to use bitcoin ecosystem to give power and sovereignty to their entities and etfs. it wasn't ever good for the ecosystem, because if their system falls. then bitcoin falls with it
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by xkusa
Geopolitical Tensions & Technical Pattern Point to BTC Decline!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) fell about -5% after tensions between Israel and Iran escalated. Unfortunately , these tensions are still escalating, but Bitcoin has managed to recover about +3% so far. Bitcoin is moving near the Resistance zone($107,120-$105,330) and Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin is completing a corrective wave . The corrective wave structure could be Contracting Triangle . In case of a sharp decline in Bitcoin again, we can consider these waves as five descending waves (if Bitcoin does NOT touch $106,600 ). I expect Bitcoin to start declining again and at least drop to the Support zone($107,120-$105,330 ). The second Target could be the Support line and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage . Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($107,120-$105,330), we can expect further increases in Bitcoin. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
43
Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound?USDCAD 17/06 – Oil Rises, Canadian Yields Surge: Can USD/CAD Rebound? After a significant drop to the 1.355x area, USD/CAD is showing early signs of recovery. However, the pair remains influenced by strong macro headwinds—particularly oil prices and Canadian monetary policy signals. 🌐 Macro & Sentiment Overview WTI crude oil is rising due to ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, which increase the risk of global supply disruptions. This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as a commodity-linked currency. Canada’s 10-year bond yields have reached their highest levels in 5 months (~3.4%), reinforcing expectations that the BoC may remain hawkish in the near term. USD weakens slightly as traders await more clarity from the Federal Reserve about the next rate cut timeline, potentially in Q3. 📊 Technical Analysis (M30 Chart) Price is printing higher lows above the key trendline. EMAs 13–34–89 are tightening → sign of sideways pressure before breakout. Short-term bullish channel still intact. Key resistance zones: 1.3581 and 1.3605. 🎯 Trade Setup Scenarios 📈 Long Scenario Entry: 1.3556 – 1.3560 (trendline bounce) Stop Loss: 1.3535 Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3605 ✅ Wait for M30/H1 confirmation like bullish engulfing or price-action breakout. 📉 Short Scenario Entry: 1.3605 (if price rejects resistance) Stop Loss: 1.3630 Take Profits: 1.3581 → 1.3556 ⚠️ Trigger only on bearish rejection with strong candle and volume at resistance. 📌 Strategic Outlook USD/CAD is caught in a tug-of-war: stronger Canadian fundamentals (oil + yields) vs. cautious USD movement post-FOMC. If oil prices and Canadian yields continue to climb, CAD may remain in favor. However, short-term technical rebounds toward 1.3600 remain valid if price structure holds.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
Long on OIL amid Israel-Iran confilctFundamental trends: Israel-Iran conflict does not seem to end soon, Israel might target iranian facilities more Recent insights suggest US involvement which whould lead to oil price rising. Technical trends: Plot seems to develope an Elliot impulse wave with clear 1-3rd waves already built. This suggests the impulse wave must end with rising on 5th wave. Conclution Overall trends tell in favor of future oil prices rising. What do you think about the situation? Please, leave your comments
TVC:USOILLong
by SamuelHuntington
GOLD The relationship between gold, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, and interest rates has traditionally been a key focus for investors. Historically, gold prices and bond yields have shown a strong inverse correlation, but recent years have seen some deviations due to shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics. 1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield Inverse Correlation: For nearly two decades, gold and the 10-year Treasury yield moved in opposite directions: rising yields made bonds more attractive relative to gold (which pays no interest), causing gold prices to fall, and vice versa. Recent Divergence: Since 2022, this relationship has weakened. Despite rising yields, gold prices have remained strong or even increased, largely due to unprecedented central bank gold buying and heightened geopolitical risks. Current Data: As of June 16, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.46%, up from 4.20% a year ago. Gold prices remain elevated, reflecting persistent demand despite higher yields. 2. Gold and Interest Rates Opportunity Cost Effect: Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically leading to lower gold prices. When rates fall, gold becomes more attractive, supporting price gains. Real Interest Rates: The most relevant metric is the real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation). Gold’s correlation with real yields is strongly negative (historically around -0.82): when real yields fall or turn negative, gold prices rise as investors seek alternatives to low or negative real returns. Central Bank Policy: Expectations of rate cuts by major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, tend to boost gold prices by lowering real yields and the dollar’s appeal. Real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are the most important driver for gold’s price direction. As of June 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.46%, with markets watching for potential rate cuts that could further support gold prices. Conclusion: While gold traditionally moves opposite to bond yields and interest rates, the relationship has become more complex in 2025. Central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and real interest rates now play a larger role in gold price dynamics alongside traditional monetary policy factors.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
INTELLECT: BFSI + IT PlayBFSI sector has been buzzing over the last few months. This company is an IT sector company catering to them. Fundamentally, this is a strong company. Has had a vertical sort of rally in the last 6 weeks or so. Any dip in here will be bought. Nature of the market is mildly bullish with bouts of volatility. Use it to your advantage. The pivot marked on chart is roughly 7% away from current market price. Look to average out your buy price over the next few weeks and hold till stock is in Stage 2.
NSE:INTELLECTLong
by bharatbulls
1
Gold Loses Shine Amid Hopes the Middle East War Remains Under Co Gold is showing little movement today, holding near $2,386 per ounce after a drop of over 1.4% yesterday. This weak performance comes as market fears over the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict have eased. Investors are hopeful that energy supplies flowing from the region to the rest of the world will not face major disruption. Scenarios that could shock oil prices, according to Axios , include Israel striking Iran’s key export facilities, Iran targeting production sites in the region, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of these developments have occurred so far, which has kept fears of renewed inflation and persistently high interest rates in check. The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal believes that global oil production capacity can absorb supply disruptions unless they are catastrophic, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the conflict does not severely disrupt energy supplies, markets may downplay its impact. This limits the geopolitical risk premium that would otherwise support further gains in gold prices. However, if diplomacy fails to contain the conflict soon, Iran may choose to escalate it by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by The Journal . This concern could prompt the US and Gulf states to intensify diplomatic efforts or even pull the US directly into the conflict. Beyond the military situation, markets are watching developments in the US-China trade dispute, where talks have yet to make meaningful progress. The lack of a breakthrough could push the US to impose restrictions on semiconductor exports and manufacturing equipment, threatening billions in American corporate sales, according to The Journal . Such moves might trigger further escalation by China, which holds leverage through its dominance in rare earth metals. Renewed tensions could disrupt supply chains and drive inflation even higher. Although recent inflation data do not suggest a sudden surge in prices, experts told The New York Times that the effects of tariffs and supply chain disruption may take months or even over a year to feed through to consumer prices. This is partly because sellers can rely on pre-tariff stockpiles and offer discounts for a period. Failure to resolve these issues could see inflation rebound, keeping interest rates high at levels that the economy may not be able to bear. The chief economics commentator at The Journal wrote last week that the Federal Reserve should shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting the economy through rate cuts, given signs of labor market weakness. Persistently high rates or further increases, along with rising bond yields, may not weigh on gold. On the contrary, they could support demand for the safe-haven asset as worries about slowing growth and recession deepen. Uncertainty in the bond market remains high compared to levels before the Ukraine war in 2022, as shown by the ICE BofAML TVC:MOVE index, which measures fear in the US Treasury bond market. This could limit the downward pressure of rising yields on gold prices. Markets are awaiting tomorrow’s Fed decision on interest rates, with attention focused on Jerome Powell’s remarks after the announcement. A stronger Fed stance on keeping rates elevated for longer might temporarily pressure gold. However, renewed concerns about economic growth could quickly restore demand for the yellow metal. Data from China also continue to fuel economic worries. Recent figures show industrial production and fixed-asset investment growth slowing more than expected, which could bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Samer Hasn
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by SamerHa
How Financial Markets Are Reacting to Middle East EscalationHow Financial Markets Are Reacting to the Escalation in the Middle East The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel continues. However, judging by the behaviour of various assets, market participants do not appear to expect further escalation: → Oil prices are falling. Monday’s candlestick on the XBR/USD chart closed significantly below the opening level. → Safe-haven assets are also retreating: the Swiss franc weakened during Monday’s U.S. session, while a bearish candle formed on the daily XAU/USD chart. Equity markets, too, have largely held their ground. The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) climbed on Monday (A→B) following reports of potential talks between Iran and the U.S. However, it pulled back (B→C) after the U.S. President urged citizens to evacuate Tehran. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart News of Israeli strikes on targets inside Iran led to a bearish breakout from the rising channel (marked with a red arrow), though the downward move failed to gain traction. At present, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the formation of an ascending triangle — a signal of temporary balance between supply and demand. Still, given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, this balance remains fragile. It could be disrupted by: → Further developments in the Iran–Israel conflict (notably, Donald Trump left the G7 summit early due to the situation in the Middle East); → U.S. retail sales data , due today at 15:30 GMT+3. It is possible that the S&P 500 may soon attempt to break out of the triangle , potentially triggering a new directional trend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
Is DFM a good buy? (Dubai)Why You Might Consider Buying Fundamental tailwinds -Dubai's economy is seeing strong growth, with GDP rising and non-oil sectors performing well. FDI inflows remain high, and tourism is growing (~16.8 m visitors in 2024). -Exchange revenue is benefiting from rising trading volumes, even as clearing fees decline. -It seems that each time DFM creates a new low, we get a nice pump from it, but this pump seems to get smaller each time it occurs. Why Caution Is Warranted Geopolitical volatility -Regional tensions (Middle East conflicts). Real estate pressure -Fitch warns Dubai property prices could fall by double digits later in 2025–26 due to oversupply (~210k new units). -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
DFM:DFMLong
by bossout10
1
Is DJT getting ready for a pump?The “Pump”—Trump Hype and Public Signals -Trump’s social media signals: Trump frequently posts “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” on Truth Social or X, coinciding with dramatic tariff announcements or political rallies. Shortly after, DJT stock often spikes—rising ~22% in a single day following one such call. -High volatility & trading halts: The stock is extremely volatile; it sometimes triggers multiple trading halts within a single session due to rapid price surges fueled by meme-like interest. -Retail-driven surge: The spike is largely driven by speculative retail traders—symbolic of meme-stock behavior and “scalper” pump tactics. -It seems that the "pumps" are getting smaller and smaller, leading to a possible max pump of around 100-200% next time, if there's any pump. And as the current chart stands, the 16$ area seems like the start of the pump. But everything can change, and a new low could form and no pump could come. The “Dump”—Insider and Early-Exit Selling -Coinciding insider sales: Major shareholders—including Pam Bondi and other insiders—have sold significant chunks of DJT stock right after sharp price jumps. -Sharp declines post-hype: Shares often retreat quickly after peaks. DJT’s recent crash washed out ~$2.4 billion in Trump's paper wealth, erasing gains from spikes tied to political victories. -Regulatory red flags: Critics and regulators accuse Trump of influencing stock spikes before selling—bordering on “scalping,” a form of pump-and-dump via social presence. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by bossout10
11