Fundamental Analysis
Gold Outlook: Bullish Momentum Ahead – Key Insights from Recent Gold remains bullish, driven by increasingly negative economic indicators. February brought a wave of weak economic data, a rise in layoffs, and a steep drop in consumer sentiment—now at its lowest level since February 2021. These developments point toward growing recession risks, which continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset.
In recent sessions, we observed a mix of profit-taking and rollover activity, with fresh positions being opened in the $3005–$3015 range. This zone now reflects strong speculative interest, suggesting that new capital is positioning for a further move upward.
Based on current market structure and positioning, gold looks set for a potential 1000 pip move, which could begin as early as today.
To summarize:
Price should hold above $2010 from here.
I’m already long from $2005.
Focus only on buy opportunities at this stage.
If you’re serious about learning how real analysis is done and how professionals track market behavior—stay tuned, and good luck! 🚀
#Gold #XAUUSD #Recession #BullishView #MarketInsight
DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings.
📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact
Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY.
Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars.
💰 Money Supply Contraction
Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar.
📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates
Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar.
Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down.
in my opinion
the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength.
If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession.
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Two things I wish I knew about crypto before startingHere are two things I wish I knew about crypto before getting into the markets.
1. Volatility is part of the crypto game. Instead of fearing it, embrace it with a strategy.
2. Tracking your portfolio isn't just about numbers; it's about clarity in decision-making. If you don't know where you stand, how can you plan your next move?
If you want, one click the link in my bio. @CryptoJayTrades
USD/JPY: Long Opportunity at Weekly Demand ZoneThe USD/JPY currency pair is currently pulling back into a significant weekly demand area, presenting a promising opportunity for traders looking to enter long positions. This area historically denotes strong buying interest, suggesting potential upward momentum.
In contrast, the 6J1! Yen futures market displays a bearish sentiment, with many retail traders positioning against this bullish signal in USD/JPY. This divergence in market sentiment could create unique trading opportunities for those who can effectively interpret technical indicators and retail positioning.
Yen Futures
To capitalize on this potential rebound, a pending order has been set on the CFD for USD/JPY, with a buy limit positioned just above the demand zone. Effective risk management, including a stop-loss just below the demand area, is essential as traders navigate this evolving landscape.
In summary, the combination of strong demand at critical levels and contrasting sentiment in the futures market presents a strategic trading scenario for bullish plays in USD/JPY.
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GBP/USD: Technical Signals Point to Potential Bearish ReversalIn the early stages of the European session on Friday, GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its footing, trading below the 1.2925 mark as I compose this article. The pair faces pressure from a robust demand for the US dollar amid a backdrop of cautiousness from the Federal Reserve and prevailing economic uncertainties. This selling pressure persists despite the Bank of England's recent hawkish stance.
As market participants await insights from Federal Reserve officials as well as a speech from US President Trump in the Oval Office, attention is heightened. From a technical perspective, the currency pair has entered a supply zone, prompting expectations for a potential reversal and the commencement of a bearish trend.
✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Bitcoin Market Update – 26 March 2025Bitcoin Market Update – 26 March 2025
After reaching an all-time high near $110,000 earlier in 2025, Bitcoin experienced a notable correction and is currently trading around the $88,000 level.
Key Technical Observations:
• The area near $91,300 may act as short-term resistance. If price action struggles to maintain momentum there, we may observe a retest of lower zones such as $80,000 or $78,000. A sustained move below $78,000 could bring the $72,000 demand region into focus.
• On the upside, a decisive 4-hour or 1-hour candle close above $93,000 could indicate strengthening bullish sentiment. Should that occur with supporting volume and positive market conditions, the $100,000 area may come back into view, followed by the previous high near $110,000 as a potential reference point.
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NZDCAD Long BiasHi all,
Just a nice techincal level on Daily / H4 on NZDCAD for a potential Long position.
A strong uptrend with impulsive bullish candles.
Let's see how it goes.
Trade safe!
GBPCAD Bearish BiasFundamentals:
Valuation:
British Pound is heavily overvalued VS CAD
on 13d - 30d
We can see that on 10d it moved from
Overvalued the day it mitigated the supply
zone marked. 11/03/2025
Seasonality:
Showed that the Top was last week - CHECK
Shows a potential downtrend until Mid May
(On 15y seasonality)
We know that GBPUSD is in supply on weekly TF too
Therefore, we can expect a bearish move on GBPCAD
GOLD Might Take A Bearish TurnThe gold price finally reached the magical USD 3000 mark a few days ago.
However, a look at the volume calls for caution, as a setback could be imminent. We are seeing significant outflows at the top and selling in strength.
Although we do not expect a bearish reversal in the big picture, a setback of around USD 150 to 200 in XAUUSD is not unlikely.
Why XAUUSD is Bullish ?? Detailed analysis XAU/USD currently trading at approximately $3,030, forming a bullish pennant pattern—a continuation signal that typically precedes further upward movement. This pattern emerges after a strong price surge, followed by consolidation marked by converging trendlines. A breakout above the pennant's upper boundary could propel gold prices toward the target of $3,100, aligning with the prevailing bullish trend
Fundamental factors support this optimistic outlook. Recent geopolitical tensions and concerns over escalating inflation have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including potential interest rate cuts, has weakened the U.S. dollar, making gold more attractive to investors. These elements collectively contribute to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold.
Technical indicators further reinforce this perspective. Gold has recently surpassed the significant $3,000 threshold, reaching new all-time highs. The formation of the bullish pennant suggests a continuation of this upward momentum. Key support levels to monitor include $2,961 to $2,965, while resistance is anticipated around $3,021 to $3,030. A decisive break above these resistance levels could confirm the pennant breakout, paving the way toward the $3,100 target.
Traders should exercise prudent risk management strategies, such as setting appropriate stop-loss orders, to navigate potential market volatility. Staying informed about upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications will also be crucial in effectively capitalizing on this trading opportunity.
Gamestop ($GME) Surge 16% in Premarket Amidst Earnings Beat The shares of GameStop (NYSE: GME) surge nearly 17% as the firm reported fiscal fourth-quarter results, which saw revenue fall 28% year-over-year to $1.28 billion.2 However, adjusted net income rose to $136.4 million, or 30 cents per share, from $67.7 million, or 22 cents per share, a year earlier. The earnings growth came as the company moved to cut costs.
GameStop (NYSE: NYSE:GME ) updated its corporate investment policy to include Bitcoin, sending shares higher in extended trading Tuesday.
The video game retailer said its board unanimously approved the decision to add Bitcoin to its investment policy, following reports last month that the retailer was considering investing in cryptocurrencies.
The announcement follows speculation about GameStop's crypto plans after CEO Ryan Cohen last month posted a picture of himself with Michael Saylor, cofounder of Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin formerly known as MicroStrategy. The price of Bitcoin was just under $88,000 in recent trading.
Shares of GameStop jumped more than 6% in after-hours trading Tuesday following the announcement. The stock was down about 19% for the year so far through the market close.
EUR/JPY Triple Bottom Breakout – Bullish SetupThis chart represents the EUR/JPY currency pair on the daily timeframe. It highlights a Triple Bottom pattern, a bullish reversal formation that signals a potential upward trend after testing strong support multiple times.
1. Chart Pattern Analysis – Triple Bottom Formation
The Triple Bottom is a classic reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend and consists of three distinct lows at nearly the same level. This indicates that sellers attempted to push the price lower but failed three times, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing.
Bottom 1 (August 2024): The price reached a low near 150.344, forming the first support zone.
Bottom 2 (September 2024): The price dropped again to the same support level but bounced back, indicating strong demand.
Bottom 3 (March 2025): The price retested the support for the third time and rebounded, confirming the pattern.
💡 Key Takeaway: The repeated failure to break below the support level suggests that sellers are losing control, and buyers are preparing for a strong move up.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
Understanding support and resistance levels is crucial for identifying entry and exit points:
Support Level (150.344 - 150.125): This zone has acted as a strong demand area where price consistently bounced back.
Resistance Level (167.500 - 170.000): This is the neckline of the Triple Bottom pattern. A breakout above this level confirms the bullish trend.
If the price breaks above the resistance level, it will trigger buying momentum and open the doors for further upside.
3. Trading Strategy & Price Targets
✅ Entry Criteria
The ideal buy entry is after the price breaks above the resistance level (~167.500 - 170.000) with strong bullish momentum and increased volume.
Wait for a daily candle close above the resistance level to confirm the breakout.
🎯 Target Levels (Take Profit - TP)
TP1 (173.001) – First profit-taking level, as the price may encounter some resistance.
TP2 (179.266) – Final bullish target if the breakout holds strong.
📉 Stop Loss (Risk Management)
Stop Loss (SL): Below 150.125, just below the previous support level. This minimizes losses if the price fails to break out.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: This setup offers a high risk-reward ratio, making it a favorable trade.
4. Market Psychology & Confirmation Signals
The Triple Bottom indicates a strong shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Confirmation signals to watch for:
✅ Bullish breakout above resistance
✅ Increase in trading volume
✅ Formation of bullish candlesticks (e.g., Engulfing, Marubozu, or Breakout Retest Confirmation)
5. Summary & Final Thoughts
🔹 The Triple Bottom pattern signals a strong reversal with clear upside potential.
🔹 The breakout above resistance (~167.500 - 170.000) will confirm a bullish trend.
🔹 Entry: Buy after breakout confirmation with volume support.
🔹 TP1: 173.001, TP2: 179.266
🔹 SL: Below 150.125 to protect capital.
🚀 Conclusion : This setup presents an excellent long opportunity with a well-defined risk-reward strategy. If the breakout holds, EUR/JPY could see a strong uptrend in the coming weeks.
GBPUSD Is due a correctionThe GBP/USD pair has been in a sustained uptrend for some time, and while I maintain a bullish outlook, a pullback or correction appears likely. Below, I’ve outlined key target levels where I anticipate potential price movements.
I’d love to hear your thoughts—let me know your perspective. If you found this analysis valuable, consider giving it a boost!
EU: ST/MT Outlook-BuyEU showed many strengths the last few days supported by huge investments in European infrastructures and defense while US self-inflicted a manufactured recession amplified with tariffs.
My ST/MT Outlook is a sustainable Buy.
The ST chart shows a potential opportunity if price breaks TL and retests S/R level.
EUR/GBP Chart Analysis – Double Bottom Reversal & Breakout Setup1. Market Structure & Context
The EUR/GBP daily chart presents a well-defined double bottom reversal pattern, indicating a potential trend shift from a prolonged downtrend to an uptrend.
The pair has been in a bearish phase, as reflected by the descending trendline.
However, price action suggests a possible trend reversal, as buyers are stepping in near a key demand zone.
A successful neckline breakout would confirm the bullish reversal, potentially leading to significant upside movement.
2. Key Chart Patterns & Technical Levels
A. Double Bottom Formation (Bullish Reversal Pattern)
The double bottom is a powerful reversal pattern, often signaling the end of a downtrend. It consists of two similar low points, forming a "W" shape.
Bottom 1: The first low was established around 0.8200 - 0.8250, where buyers initially stepped in to push prices higher.
Bottom 2: Price retested this demand zone, but sellers failed to push it lower, confirming a strong support level.
Bullish Significance: The inability of sellers to break below the support zone suggests the exhaustion of selling pressure and increasing buy-side interest.
B. Neckline Resistance & Potential Breakout Zone
The neckline resistance is drawn around 0.8450 - 0.8500, a key level where previous price rallies were rejected.
A breakout above this zone, ideally with strong bullish volume, would validate the double bottom pattern and trigger a bullish breakout trade.
C. Descending Trendline Breakout Attempt
The long-term downtrend resistance (trendline) has been holding since mid-2024.
Price is currently testing this trendline; a clear breakout and retest would add further confidence to the bullish bias.
3. Trade Setup & Execution Plan
A. Entry Strategy
There are two possible entry strategies, depending on risk appetite:
Aggressive Entry: Buy immediately upon a breakout above 0.8500, anticipating a strong rally.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a breakout + retest of the neckline before entering, ensuring confirmation.
B. Stop Loss & Risk Management
Stop Loss (SL): Placed below the recent swing low at 0.82029.
This level acts as the last line of defense for bulls; if price drops below it, the bullish thesis is invalidated.
C. Take Profit (TP) Targets
TP1: 0.86122 (first resistance zone, a previous swing high).
TP2: 0.87284 (higher resistance level, next supply zone).
These levels serve as potential profit-taking areas where sellers may re-enter the market.
4. Additional Technical Confluences Supporting Bullish Bias
✔ Key Support Zone Holding Strong – The price has bounced twice from the demand zone (0.8200 - 0.8250), confirming strong buyer interest.
✔ Volume Confirmation Needed – A breakout with high volume increases the probability of sustained bullish momentum.
✔ RSI & Momentum Indicators – If RSI crosses above 50, it would further confirm bullish momentum, supporting the breakout trade.
✔ Favorable Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) – A well-defined stop loss & take profit strategy ensures an optimal trade setup.
5. Summary & Final Trading Plan
Current Market Bias: Bullish if neckline breaks (Double Bottom Confirmation).
Entry Confirmation: Look for a breakout above 0.8500 with strong volume.
Profit Targets:
TP1: 0.8612
TP2: 0.8728
Stop-Loss Level: Below 0.8202 to protect against fake breakouts.
🚀 Final Tip for Traders:
Monitor price action & volume closely. A breakout without volume may lead to a false move. Confirmation with bullish momentum is essential for a high-probability trade setup.
Think Like a Pro: Trade with Discipline, Not Emotion **Taming Greed: The Secret to Long-Term Trading Success**
Trading is a battlefield of emotions—**excitement, fear, hope, and greed**. Among them, **greed is the silent killer**, pushing traders to overtrade, overleverage, and chase the market, ultimately leading to disaster.
As the saying goes:
📉 **“Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.”**
**Why Greed is Your Worst Enemy**
Fear may hold you back, but **greed pushes you into reckless decisions**. It makes you **ignore your trading plan, risk too much, and hold losing trades for too long**—all in pursuit of bigger gains.
But here’s the truth: **The market rewards patience, not desperation.**
**How to Keep Greed in Check & Trade Like a Pro**
🔥 **Follow a Strict Trading Plan**
A well-defined **plan is your shield against impulsive decisions**. Know your entry, exit, and risk before placing a trade. **Discipline beats greed—every time.**
📊 **Master Risk Management**
Avoid the temptation to **bet big for quick gains**. A strong **risk strategy protects your capital** and ensures survival in the long run. The goal isn’t just to win—it’s to stay in the game.
⏳ **Say No to Overtrading**
More trades don’t mean more profits—**it usually means more losses**. Trade **with precision, not emotion**. If you’re trading just for the thrill, **you’re gambling, not investing**.
**Success = Patience + Discipline**
Greed is an illusion—it promises wealth but delivers ruin. The real path to trading mastery lies in **consistency, control, and calculated risks**.
💡 **Trade smart. Stay disciplined. Build wealth the right way.**
Possible SELLI will be looking to sell at this supply level and take it down to the previous low. I do also want the market to close the gap that it created on Monday
ETHUSD is testing multi year support. I bought today.ETH is currently at a critical juncture. The price is testing a key support level at 2,074.52 USD after a 31% pullback from its recent high. Technical indicators like RSI and volume suggest that the downward momentum may be slowing, but confirmation of a reversal is needed (e.g., a break above 2,281.03 USD with increased volume). On the other hand, a break below 2,074.52 USD could lead to further downside.
For Bulls: If you’re looking to buy ETH, watch for a strong bounce at this support level with confirmation from volume and RSI. A break above 2,281.03 USD would be a good entry point for a potential swing trade targeting 2,984.22 USD.
For Bears: If the price breaks below 2,074.52 USD, it could be a good opportunity to short ETH with a target of 1,800 USD or lower.
For Long-Term Holders: The current pullback appears to be a normal correction after a strong uptrend. If you believe in ETH’s long-term fundamentals (e.g., its role in DeFi, staking, and layer-2 scaling), this could be a good level to accumulate, especially if the price holds above 2,074.52 USD.
EUR/USD Triple Bottom Reversal | Bullish Breakout SetupChart Overview
This is a EUR/USD 1-hour chart showing a classic Triple Bottom Reversal Pattern, a strong bullish reversal signal. The price has tested a key support level multiple times, forming three distinct bottoms, indicating that sellers are losing momentum while buyers are stepping in.
This setup suggests an upcoming breakout, with well-defined entry, take profit, and stop-loss levels to capitalize on the potential upward move.
Technical Breakdown
1. Support & Resistance Zones
Support Zone (Highlighted in Beige)
The price has tested this zone multiple times without breaking below, confirming strong buying interest.
Each time the price touched this level, it rebounded, indicating accumulation by buyers.
Resistance Zone (Highlighted in Beige)
The price previously reversed from this level, making it a key area to watch for a breakout.
A confirmed breakout above this resistance could trigger strong upward momentum.
2. Triple Bottom Formation
A Triple Bottom is a strong bullish reversal pattern. It consists of:
Bottom 1: First rejection from support.
Bottom 2: A retest of support with buyers defending the level.
Bottom 3: The final touch before an upward move, confirming the pattern.
This pattern signals that selling pressure is diminishing and buyers are preparing for a strong breakout.
3. Bullish Reversal & Breakout Zone
A breakout above the neckline resistance (around 1.0843) will confirm the pattern.
Traders should wait for a confirmed candle close above the resistance before entering a long position.
A retest of the breakout zone can provide an additional entry opportunity.
Trade Setup & Key Levels
🔹 Entry Strategy
Aggressive Entry: Enter at the breakout level (above 1.0843) with volume confirmation.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a breakout retest before entering long.
🎯 Take Profit Targets
TP1: 1.08868 (First resistance zone)
TP2: 1.09642 (Major resistance zone, strong price reaction expected)
❌ Stop Loss Placement
Stop Loss: Below 1.06786, under the support zone.
This ensures that if the price breaks below the key level, the trade is invalidated.
Market Sentiment & Expected Move
If the price breaks the resistance → Expect a strong bullish move toward TP1 and TP2.
If the price fails to break out → It may consolidate further or retest support.
Watch for increased volume on the breakout to confirm strength.
📌 Final Thoughts
This is a high-probability bullish setup based on a well-formed Triple Bottom Reversal pattern. Traders should monitor price action near the breakout zone and manage risk effectively with proper stop-loss placement.
Interval oscillation, opportunities are within your graspMy dear friends, the gold range idea has been fulfilled again. Do you still remember the batch shorting gold strategy we laid out before? Facts have proved that our vision and judgment are extremely accurate! At present, the gold price has successfully reached the target area. Congratulations to everyone for making a profit again. This wave of operations is simply beautiful. I am honored to be recognized and encouraged by everyone. We set sail on the road of trading. I will bring my trading strategy plan, and you will bring your execution discipline. I believe we will definitely have good results.
But investment is never a one-shot deal. The current profit is only a phased result. The gold market has always been turbulent, and the subsequent trend is full of uncertainty. The operation strategy plan can first refer to the unchanged range thinking method I mentioned earlier, the high-altitude and low-multiple operation strategy, and conduct in-depth technical and news analysis. Gold will temporarily maintain a volatile thinking approach. The large range focuses on 3035-3000, and is in horizontal consolidation. In the 4H cycle, the Bollinger Bands are also in a closed state, and the K-line is interlaced at the middle track. In the short-term sideways consolidation and accumulation stage, the operation relies on 3035 as the critical point of adjustment. Below this position, continue to look at the callback, recover and stabilize, and then adjust the thinking. Pay attention to the support of 3012 and 3000 below. Maintain high-altitude and low-multiple operations as a whole, and follow up after the breakthrough. The specific operation is combined with the short-term pattern. Once there is a new change, I will inform you as soon as possible. Operation suggestion: Gold is short near 3030-35, and the target is 3020 and 3015! It is long near 3010-3000. The target is 3015 and 3026!If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope to help you avoid detours in your investment. The information I recently shared about the gold market has received a lot of feedback, and everyone said it was very helpful! If you don’t know when to enter the market, you can follow me 🌐, I will release specific signals in real time, remember to pay attention to the bottom 🌐 signal in time.
GoPro (GPRO) Long Idea – Target: $1GoPro (GPRO) Long Idea – Target: $1
GoPro CEO Nicholas Woodman has waived his salary for the remainder of 2025, reinforcing the company’s aggressive cost-cutting plan aimed at reducing operating expenses by 30% and returning to profitability by 2026. This symbolic gesture highlights leadership accountability and strengthens investor confidence in the turnaround strategy, including operational efficiencies and supply chain diversification beyond China.
Technically, the stock has stabilized and is showing signs of reversal from oversold levels. With strong support holding and volume gradually increasing, a move back toward the $1.00 psychological level is likely, making this a compelling long setup.
Gold Consolidation or Secondary phase?Gold currently trading in consolidation phase, waiting for the next fundamental catalyst to make its move. This week we have the important GDP and PCE numbers which could be it.
Keeping in mind, we are approaching End of month and Quarter, and it's very common to see profit taking move and rebalance of flows.
