Fundamental Analysis
USDJPY set go down much further. 1. Summary of Key Factors
-Factor Signal Impact on USD/JPY Notes
-US 20Y Bond Selloff Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Suggests capital outflows from US
-Moody's Downgrade Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Weakens USD confidence globally
-Japanese Portfolio Rebalancing Bullish JPY🔻 Drop Likely Reduced UST purchases = yen demand
-Technical Break of SMA & Support Bearish 🔻 Drop Likely Clean 50-day MA break = momentum shift
-Risk Sentiment (Safe-Haven Flows) Favors JPY 🔻 Drop Likely JPY tends to strengthen in uncertainty
-Upcoming Asian Session (Tokyo Open) Neutral–Bearish 🔻 May Continue Yen typically sees increased strength
Looking at all these factors we should expect a further drop.
GBPUSD: Will DXY Bounce Back? |GBPUSD Swing Sell|The GBPUSD pair is currently rallying towards a potential selling zone, where sellers could push the price down. However, the main concern is the current state of the DXY, which clearly indicates another sell-off and could lead to another lower low. Please remember to use risk management while trading forex pairs.
There are three take-profit targets that can be set according to your trading plan. This analysis doesn’t guarantee that the price will move as described.
Good luck and trade safely!
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India 50 Major Market Caution Signs Emerging!Any time you see multiple head-and-shoulders patterns forming on the chart often signals serious trouble ahead.
Stay vigilant for a break in the right shoulder of this massive head-and-shoulders pattern currently developing.
As a macro trader, I focus on the big picture—economics and long-term trends. While markets like India and long-term trading don’t get much TV coverage, my aim is to shift your perspective and enhance your trading strategy.
Follow this post to track how multiple head and shoulders patterns and a rising bearish wedge evolve over time.
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Gold is Booming: Time to BUY (Part 2/4)Why Gold is the Ultimate Safe-Haven
Ask yourself: what’s the oldest asset in finance?
— Stocks? 1602
— US Bonds? 1776
— Crypto? 2009
— Rice futures? 1730s
But gold? Thousands of years .
Why it matters:
Gold has cultural, financial, and physical durability.
It doesn’t corrode.
It’s rare.
It’s used in jewelry, reserves, trade, and as a store of value.
Average return:
From 1971 to 2024 → +7.98% per year
In 2023 → +13.1%
In times of crisis, investors always run to gold.
Cardano-ADAUSD Periodic Analysis-Issue 82 (Free Access)The analyst believes that the price of ADAUSD will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend.
___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
XRPUSDT: Price has reversed, what's next? XRPUSDT has smoothly reversed from our designated reversal buy zone, as clearly pointed out in this chart and our previous analysis. We expect a smooth price reversal taking the price to $4 in the coming weeks. Please use accurate risk management while trading XRP. Crypto is likely to remain more volatile in the coming days.
Two targets are pointed out, which you can set based on your analysis.
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#DAX30 Surges to 24,000: What’s Behind the Record-Breaking RallyOn May 20, 2025, Germany’s benchmark stock index, the #DAX30, crossed the 24,000-point threshold for the first time in its history, reaching an all-time high of 24,079.40. This historic milestone reflects growing investor confidence in the prospects of Europe’s largest economy.
The surge of the #DAX30 beyond the 24,000 mark was driven by a combination of key factors:
Improved geopolitical climate : Global tensions have eased — most notably between the United States and China. Signs of de-escalation in trade policy between the world’s largest economies have bolstered investor confidence. Additionally, an improved negotiation climate in Eastern Europe, particularly due to reduced conflict in Ukraine, has helped lower market uncertainty.
Strong corporate earnings : Major German corporations within the #DAX30 have posted robust quarterly results. Leading the charge were technology giants (e.g., SAP) and industrial powerhouses (such as Siemens and BMW), which reported increased profits despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. This has reinforced confidence in the resilience of German businesses.
ECB monetary policy expectations : Markets are pricing in a potential easing of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Although interest rates remain elevated, growing signals of a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 are stimulating equity markets and making stock investments more attractive.
Export growth and trade optimism : The reduction of trade barriers, a stronger euro, and a rebound in global trade have positively impacted export-driven German companies. As one of the world’s leading export economies, Germany is benefiting from a renewed global demand recovery.
Hopes for domestic reforms : The German government is actively pushing investments in infrastructure, digital transformation, and the green economy. These initiatives are boosting investor sentiment, particularly in the technology and sustainable energy sectors.
Technical momentum : From a technical perspective, the breakout above the 24,000 level served as a catalyst for speculative capital inflows. Many traders and funds that follow trends and resistance levels initiated buy positions after the breakout, amplifying the upward momentum.
This combination of fundamental and technical drivers has created a powerful growth impulse for the # DAX30 . According to analysts at FreshForex, the index may continue its upward trajectory — provided current macroeconomic stability is maintained.
AUD's appeal boosted by rallying metals and yuan Following the dovish RBA rate cut on Tuesday, the AUD/USD has bounced back. The US dollar has fallen across the board, while the Aussie has been boosted by rallying prices of precious metals and a firmer yuan.
While equity markets have been relatively subdued, the commodities space has seen some notable action — particularly in precious metals. Platinum and palladium have each surged more than 10% this week, while silver is showing renewed strength after breaking out of a prolonged consolidation phase and climbing above its bearish trend line. Gold is also on the move, rising for the third consecutive session and reclaiming the $3,300 level.
With the AUD being sensitive to metals prices, this is clearly a bullish signal.
The AUD/USD itself has been consolidating its recent gains, as it potentially gears up for a breakout. Today it has more than made up for yesterday's mild losses that were driven in part by a dovish RBA. With resistance at 0.6460 broken, the AUD/USD could be heading to 0.6500 and beyond in the days ahead. Watch out for a breakout in this pair.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SOL losing strength vs BTC – bearish continuation?The chart shows a clear weakening of Solana against Bitcoin. After a prolonged sideways phase within a symmetrical triangle, price has broken down, signaling a potential bearish continuation.
🔻 Technical pattern:
Well-defined symmetrical triangle (orange lines) broken to the downside.
Breakdown occurred with rising volume, confirming the validity of the move.
📌 Key levels:
Resistance: 0.00370 – 0.00430 BTC (strong supply zone, repeatedly rejected).
Support: 0.00073 – 0.00110 BTC (historical potential bounce zone).
Price is currently heading toward support, with a theoretical target around 0.00110 BTC, in line with the triangle’s height.
📊 Volume:
Gradual decline during the triangle formation.
Volume spike on breakdown – a confirmation signal.
⚠️ Observations:
The SOL/BTC pair is showing clear relative weakness vs BTC.
If the highlighted support zone fails to hold, new local lows may be in sight.
Potential reversal signals would require a reclaim of resistance or evident accumulation near support.
GOLD The relationship between gold, bond yields, and bond prices is complex and has evolved notably in recent years, especially amid geopolitical tensions and inflation dynamics in 2024–2025.
Traditional Relationship
Inverse correlation between bond prices and yields: Bond prices and yields move inversely—when yields rise, bond prices fall, and vice versa.
Gold and bond yields: Historically, gold has an inverse correlation with nominal government bond yields, especially U.S. Treasuries. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically pressuring gold prices downward. Conversely, falling yields reduce this cost, supporting gold.
Gold and bond prices: Since bond prices move opposite to yields, gold tends to move in the same direction as bond prices (both rise when yields fall).
Recent and Unusual Trends (2024–2025)
In 2024 and early 2025, gold prices and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose simultaneously at times, breaking the typical inverse relationship. This was driven by intensified geopolitical turmoil (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war), escalating trade tensions, and safe-haven demand overriding normal macroeconomic principles.
Elevated yields reflected inflation concerns and Fed’s high-interest-rate environment, yet gold surged past $3,000/oz and made a new all time high at 3500 /oz amid fears of recession and geopolitical risks, showing a lock-step positive correlation with yields during specific periods.
This decoupling suggests that geopolitical uncertainty and inflation fears can dominate the usual bond-gold dynamics, with investors seeking gold as a hedge even when yields rise.
Inflation and Economic Growth Context
During periods of stagflation (rising inflation with low or negative growth), gold and bond prices diverge: gold rallies as an inflation hedge, while bonds suffer due to rising yields and inflation risk.
In contrast, during economic slowdowns with deflation risks, both gold and bonds tend to perform well as safe havens.
The current macroeconomic environment resembles the late 1960s and 1970s, where rising inflation and bond yields coincided with a strong secular gold bull market.
Technical and Market Indicators
The gold-to-bonds ratio broke out to a 35-year high in March 2024, signaling capital flows shifting from bonds to gold amid inflation concerns.
Central banks, especially China, have increased gold purchases significantly, supporting prices independent of bond market moves.
Market participants view rising or declining yields as indicators of economic trends, using these signals to adjust portfolios between bonds, gold, and other assets.
Conclusion
While gold traditionally moves inversely to bond yields and in line with bond prices, recent years have seen periods of simultaneous rises in gold prices and bond yields, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and safe-haven demand. This has temporarily broken the classic negative correlation between gold and yields. Investors now consider a broader set of factors—including inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank actions—when assessing gold and bond market dynamics.
#gold
Will $BITF print? Jan 16, 26 (240d) $3 strike 10 contractsI have entered this trade with a small $140 premium, this is Jan 16 because I do not want decay and I'm expecting large moves in bitcoin climbing to $217,000 end of year, hence I think NASDAQ:BITF trades above $8 until expiration, so I'm looking to capture some upside here with a small position. I'm open to adding more contracts as I go.
My Second Bull Run ExperienceDuring the Covid Era, I have experienced my very first bull run. I made profit but then I made mistakes by being too greedy. This time, i will take profit once the mass will speak about it... Give it a few days and it will be all around the news. I was accumulating more BTC around 50-70K (The last dip). I am proud of how I am reacting to this bull cycle!
Buyers are expected to step in at this zone and drive price upI'm closely monitoring USD/CAD as it approaches a significant support zone between 1.3820 and 1.3740. This area has historically prompted bullish rebounds, and I anticipate that buyers will defend it.
With confirmation, I plan to enter a long position, placing a stop loss just below 1.3740 to manage risk. Initial targets might include the 1.3900 level, aligning with previous resistance. Then, we can expect the 1.40 area for full TP.
However, if the price breaks decisively below 1.3740, it would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest further downside.
BTC USD UpdateWe’ve hit all of our targets on the BTC/USD pair, so it’s time to close today’s trades and let the markets work their magic. I hope you’ve found this trading plan helpful. With the summer trading season ahead, it will be interesting to see how both the dollar and crypto markets perform. I’ll keep you posted!
Hain Celestial Group | HAIN | Long at $1.39Hain Celestial Group $NASDAQ:HAIN. I've had this organic food company on my watchlist for some time as it has dropped massively since 2021. Today, it dropped over 50% post-earnings call after the announcement of weaker sales/earnings and the exit of its CEO (much needed). The company is going to do a "strategic review" of its business moving forward and this is the turn/recognition I've been waiting for entry. Currently, at $1.39, it is highly undervalued - despite the company's challenges (which had a $1.74 billion revenue in 2024). It has moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.91x and a moderate growth outlook. It's a perfect acquisition target and divestitures could be beneficial to the upside in the long-term. I do think, however, there is a chance this goes below $1.00 in the near-term. But given the CEO's departure and awareness that the company needs to reinstate investor confidence, there is a good chance this stock may return to fair value again (over $3).
Thus, at $1.39, NASDAQ:HAIN is in a personal buy zone, with a word of caution about price mentioned above. Outlook and targets are into 2027.
Targets:
$1.75
$2.00
$2.50
American Superconductor–Powering the Future of Energy & Defense Company Overview:
NASDAQ:AMSC is at the intersection of three megatrends: grid modernization, clean energy, and military innovation. With proprietary high-temperature superconducting (HTS) technology and a growing portfolio of energy and defense solutions, the company is moving from niche player to strategic infrastructure enabler.
🔑 Growth Catalysts:
📈 Grid Modernization & NWL Acquisition
Grid segment revenue +56% YoY in Q3 2024, accelerated by NWL integration
NWL expands footprint in grid-scale capacitors, transformers, and military-grade systems
Heightened U.S. focus on grid resiliency due to aging infrastructure and climate pressures
🌬️ Renewable Energy Tailwinds
Wind segment grew +58% YoY, bolstered by demand for advanced turbine control systems
Aligns with global decarbonization and offshore wind investment
🛡️ Defense Expansion
HTS tech used in shipboard systems, degaussing solutions, and high-power electronics
NWL opens doors to increased DoD contracts amid rising national security budgets
🔁 Recurring Revenue & Policy Support
Shift toward long-term service and tech licensing agreements
Backed by U.S. energy and defense spending, including DOE and DOD initiatives
📊 Fundamental Highlights:
Lean balance sheet and operating leverage
Strong YoY revenue acceleration across all segments
Diversified exposure to energy, defense, and renewables
📈 Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $21.00–$22.00
🚀 Upside Target: $38.00–$40.00
🎯 Thesis: With breakthrough superconducting tech, strategic acquisitions, and bipartisan support for energy security, AMSC is emerging as a small-cap innovator in critical infrastructure.
#AMSC #GridModernization #DefenseTech #Renewables #Superconductors #EnergyResilience #CleanTech