Get started

Fundamental Analysis

Atlassian | Transitioning from Server to Cloud & Now to AI Atlassian’s Secret to Success: Free Stuff, Fancy Upgrades, and Lots of AI In 2020, Atlassian, the Australian software leader known for tools like Jira and Confluence, initiated its transition to a cloud-first model, phasing out its legacy Server business. This strategic pivot has reshaped its revenue model and driven significant growth. Cloud Momentum Atlassian’s Cloud revenue surged 31% year-over-year in Q1 FY25 to $792 million, surpassing investor expectations. The transition highlights the company’s agility and sustained expansion in a competitive market. SaaS Growth Strategy Atlassian employs a "land-and-expand" SaaS model, attracting customers with low-cost or free products and encouraging upgrades to premium features and additional solutions. Key Highlights -💻 300,000+ customers, including 84% of Fortune 500 companies, spanning software development, IT, and business teams. - 🏢 524 enterprise customers generating $MIL:1M+ ARR, reflecting deeper engagement with large organizations. -🤖 AI adoption: A 10x increase in Atlassian Intelligence usage this year has driven premium upgrades and enhanced productivity. Innovation and Expansion Atlassian continues to focus on product-led growth with recent launches like Atlassian Focus for enterprise strategy and Advanced Editions , offering premium features for existing tools. Financial Perspective -Profitability challenges: Q1 FY25 saw a $32 million operating loss (3% loss margin), a slight decline from last year. This is due to sustained R&D investments (51% of revenue, +2pp YoY), reflecting a long-term growth strategy over immediate profitability. -Server phase-out: Ending the Server business has boosted cloud and data center revenue. -Data Center growth: Revenue grew 38% YoY to $336 million, serving as a transitional solution for customers not yet ready for full cloud migration. Atlassian is positioning Data Center as a stepping stone rather than a permanent option. Future Outlook Atlassian is well placed to leverage rising demand for cloud based tools and AI advancements. However, challenges persist, including macroeconomic uncertainties, competition, and profitability pressures. While generative AI offers new opportunities, it also presents risks such as increased competition and the potential slowing of paid seat growth, a critical revenue stream. Atlassian’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine its long-term success in this transformative phase.
NASDAQ:TEAMLong
by moonypto
EURUSD → Consolidation in the selling zone. FX:EURUSD is coming out of a prolonged consolidation. As part of counter-trend correction, the price is testing the previously broken support and trying to consolidate in the selling zone. The fundamental background has become sharply negative since last week, which generally determines the medium-term potential for the currency pair. The rate cuts in the US have slowed down, but in Europe they are going to continue to cut rates. Trump's policy with his tariff system will also put negative pressure on the EURO. Technically, against the background of a strong rallying dollar, the euro has almost no chance. If the bears keep the defense below 1.0448 and focus on breaking the support, the currency pair may head towards 1.022 in the medium term. Resistance levels: 1.0448, 1.053 Support levels: 1.033, 1.022 At the moment, the focus is on the two nearest resistances. It is possible to retest these zones and try to defend their borders from the buyer's side, but there are not many chances. A breakdown and fixing of the price in the selling zone will strengthen further decline. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
Building a massive short up to 55k We are seeing a similar pattern to the 2020-2021 bull run, but this time under different circumstances and with Bitcoin at a much higher price. Over the years, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, which continues to attract both institutional and retail investors. Previously, we experienced a correction from $60K to $30K. Now, we’re observing a correction from approximately $100K to $50K. These are rough estimates, but the trend appears consistent. In my opinion, based on the past eight years of observing Bitcoin charts (though not daily), the market often feels manipulated. This is likely due to Bitcoin’s relatively smaller market cap compared to other asset classes like stocks, forex, or mega-cap stocks (e.g., FAANGM). Recently, we faced rejection from a falling wedge pattern on the ES, which is bearish. I had hoped that lower VIX levels would encourage portfolio managers to re-enter the market, but with the stock market holiday on Wednesday, the 25th, I anticipated heightened volatility and an additional correction of approximately 8-10%. I’m aware that hedge funds are engaging in “window dressing” as the year ends. Portfolio managers are likely to remain passive, avoiding risky trades that could jeopardize their year-end bonuses. As a result, we can expect a quieter market from their side. Along the way, we may see some “dead cat bounces,” but there’s no need to worry. I had hoped Bitcoin would maintain its upward trajectory, but putting emotions aside and analyzing objectively: VWAP is significantly below the current price. Fibonacci retracement suggests further downside. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and RSI indicate bearish momentum. Money flow is negative. A significant short wall has formed, and many positions have already been liquidated . Based on this, it seems likely that we’ll continue moving downward. I’ve included two additional charts in the comments below for further insights.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Risk_Adj_Return
4
TRON (TRX) on the Road to $0.64? An Analysis for the Community🚀 TRON (TRX) on the Road to $0.64? An Analysis for the Community 🚀 TRON (TRX) is showing strong signs of a potential price surge, with a realistic target of $0.64 based on Fibonacci levels and technical indicators. Here’s why TRX looks bullish heading into 2025: 1️⃣ Technical Analysis The current chart analysis reveals: Fibonacci Level 1.618 highlights $0.64 as a possible target. Strong support levels at $0.24 and $0.28 are holding firm, paving the way for further growth. The price is following a clear uptrend and has recently broken key resistance levels. 2️⃣ Fundamental Strength TRON's ecosystem continues to expand at a rapid pace: Partnership with Bitget: TRON recently announced a collaboration with Bitget, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges. This partnership boosts global adoption and liquidity for TRX. Leading in dApps: TRON remains one of the top blockchains for decentralized applications and smart contracts. 3️⃣ Positive Market Momentum USDT-TRC20 Dominance: TRON continues to gain strength globally, driven by the rising adoption of USDT on the TRC-20 network, which offers faster and cheaper transactions compared to alternatives. Bull Market Catalysts: As the broader crypto market enters a bullish phase, TRON is uniquely positioned to benefit, thanks to its established presence across all major exchanges and its robust ecosystem. 4️⃣ Why $0.64? Analysts believe the combination of increased network utility, growing adoption of TRC-20 USDT, and TRON’s technical strength could push the price to $0.64. While the crypto markets are inherently volatile, TRON has historically demonstrated its ability to rally quickly. What’s Your Take? What are your thoughts on the partnership between TRON and Bitget? Do you believe $0.64 is achievable in 2025? Share your opinions with the community! 🌐 📢 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions!
Long
by Loveiceroollss
SOLUSDT - Will this nightmare come true?On October 22, I published this chart, and many were skeptical about what I was talking about. "I share it and u can check the link i left in attachment." Now, this scenario is highly likely, and everything is unfolding as shown in the chart below. You can clearly see the Wyckoff Distribution pattern already formed, and so far, price movements align significantly with the illustration provided. Currently, the price has returned to the distribution zone, hitting the "failed rally point" . All of this appears to have been a trap. And why not?... SOL is one of the largest coins in the market by market cap. Everyone is expecting SOL to achieve x3 or even x10. This makes it entirely logical for the price not to move higher amidst this level of optimism. I’m not entirely pessimistic, but I view things from a purely logical perspective. This pattern is not yet confirmed—we need a massive red candle closing below the distribution zone to confirm it. However, the price movement so far is perfectly aligned with the Wyckoff Distribution logic. If a close below this red zone happens, consider it a signal to exit the market entirely."
by ceciliones
10
USDJPY: HTF DT ANALYSIS (1D)HIGH TIMEFRAME DOWNTREND ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Resistance: 161.03 (Major Resistance, distal) 158.33 (Major Resistance, proximal) These levels are aligned with previous rejection zones. 157.8650 (Sell Stoploss Zones) Support: 147.7718 (Strong pivot level from historical lows). 144.8898 and 144.1802 (Mid pivot and buy orders zone). Pivot Zones: 153.4900 (Sell limit identified) 149.7555 (Mid Pivot TP 2 target). Trend: The pair is in a downtrend as highlighted on the chart, with key resistance zones being tested. Pivot Highs and Lows: Pivot highs are aligning with bearish divergences, as seen in areas of DT (Double Top) confirmations. Pivot lows signal potential reversals near support levels, supported by UT (Upward Trend) signals. Volume and Risk Metrics: Volume around Resistance 158 shows diminishing upward momentum, increasing the likelihood of rejection. Risk Index: 0.01853 indicates manageable risk levels for short trades. Reward Index: -0.01521 signifies opportunities for improved reward setups on lower timeframes. PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT Bearish Scenario: Rejection from the 153-158 range offers significant downside probability toward 147.77 and 144.18. Bullish Recovery: A confirmed breakout above 158.04 with strong volume could invalidate the bearish outlook, targeting 160.00. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Macroeconomic Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained ultra-loose monetary policies, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher interest rate stance. This divergence favors dollar strength. However, seasonal tendencies show that December often has corrective movements due to year-end profit-taking and reduced trading liquidity. Economic Data: Upcoming U.S. GDP and BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes could catalyze volatility. Watch for geopolitical developments impacting the Yen as a safe-haven currency. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment is cautious. With the chart showing multiple sell zones and exhaustion signals Traders may wait for confirmation before heavy entries. TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS High-Risk Opportunities: Sell Entry: Stop Loss: Above 158.0416 157.06 (Sell Limit Order) 155.44 (Sell Stop Order 1) 153.49 (Sell Stop Order 2) Target: 147.84 (Major Support) Buy Entry: Entry: Near 144.1802 Stop Loss: Below 141.64
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
Detailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) 2yrDetailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) Two-Year Outlook and Options Strategy I. Introduction: Welcome to NVIDIA's Final Destination NVIDIA’s journey through the stock market feels eerily similar to a thriller like Final Destination. The twists and turns keep you on edge, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and just when you think you’ve figured it all out, the plot thickens. The question is: are we hurtling toward a safe landing or another sharp drop? With a head-and-shoulders pattern looming and Fibonacci levels adding their own cryptic clues, it’s time to map out the next two years. This isn’t just a ride—it’s a calculated journey through chaos and opportunity. ________________________________________ II. Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Position and Growth Catalysts NVIDIA (NVDA) has solidified its position as a leader in GPU and AI computing, supported by its dominant share in the gaming, data center, and automotive sectors. Its continued focus on AI hardware and software frameworks, like CUDA, provides a competitive moat. With AI-driven workloads expected to grow exponentially, NVIDIA remains a key beneficiary of this secular trend. However, NVDA faces potential headwinds from: • Geopolitical risks: Restrictions on chip exports to China could affect revenues. • Macroeconomic factors: High-interest rates and economic slowdowns may pressure growth-oriented tech stocks. • Valuation concerns: Elevated price-to-earnings ratios leave the stock vulnerable to corrections during downturns. 2. Historical Performance NVDA has demonstrated robust performance in the last decade, experiencing exponential growth in revenue and market capitalization. While this growth has been exceptional, recent price action suggests overextension, leading to the potential formation of a multi-year correction and consolidation before resuming upward momentum. ________________________________________ III. Technical Analysis 1. Current Structure • Head and Shoulders Pattern: A classic bearish reversal pattern is forming, with the left shoulder and head completed. The right shoulder is expected to form near the $134.70 resistance zone. • Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.618 retracement at ~$118 and 0.786 at ~$102 provide key support levels for potential pullbacks. • Momentum Indicators: - MACD: Bearish divergence indicates waning bullish momentum. - Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions suggest a correction is imminent. 2. Key Levels and Projections • Resistance Levels: $134.70, $149.37. • Support Levels: $118.32 (0.618 Fib), $102.86 (0.786 Fib), $95.65 (potential long-term bottom). • Recovery Path: Post-correction, NVDA could retest $149+ by late 2025, driven by cyclical recovery and improved fundamentals. ________________________________________ IV. Options Strategy: Leveraging Key Zones and Timelines 1. Core Thesis The projected pullback offers a strategic opportunity to capitalize on NVDA’s volatility using options. By employing 45-day (DTE) short put spreads at key support levels, we can: • Generate consistent income from elevated implied volatility (IV). • Define risk with limited downside exposure. Additionally, using long-term hedges (LEAPS) can offset potential losses, ensuring portfolio resilience during downturns. 2. Strategy Design (Phase 1) a. 45D Short Put Spreads • Objective: Capture premium during consolidation near support zones. • Execution: - Sell a short put at a support level (e.g., $118). - Buy a protective put 5-10 points lower (e.g., $113) to limit risk. • Example: - Sell $118 put, buy $113 put for a net credit of $1.50. - Max profit: $150 per contract. - Max loss: $350 per contract. - Breakeven: $116.50. • Timeline: Enter spreads every 45D, adjusting strikes based on price action and IV. b. Long-Term Hedge Using LEAPS • Objective: Hedge downside risk during significant corrections. • Execution: - Buy a deep ITM long put with 12-18 months DTE at $149 (current resistance). - Use proceeds from short put spreads to offset the cost of the hedge. • Rationale: Protects against deep corrections while maintaining exposure to long-term recovery. 3. Combining Strategies • During consolidations, sell short put spreads at $118 and $102. • Maintain a LEAPS hedge at $149 to offset potential losses if the pattern fails and the price breaks lower. • Adjust strikes dynamically based on the formation of the right shoulder and subsequent price action. ________________________________________ V. Phases of Execution Phase 2: Bearish Continuation to End of February 1. LEAP Exit: - Exit the LEAP put at the end of February if NVDA drops below $102. - Capture maximum intrinsic value before significant time decay impacts the LEAP. 2. Second 45DTE Put Spread Exit: - Exit the 45DTE short put spread around 21DTE (mid-February). - This is consistent with best practices to avoid gamma risk and maximize theta decay gains. Phase 3: Test at $95.65 1. Observe the Price Action: - If NVDA tests $95.65: - Confirm support and momentum before acting. - Look for signs of stabilization or a breakdown below $95. 2. Sell a Cash-Secured Put Below $95: - Choose a strike below $95 (e.g., $90 or $85) to give some breathing room. - Plan an exit near $135 test if NVDA rebounds, allowing you to capture premium. Phase 4: Transition Back to Short Put Spreads 1. After $135 Test: - If NVDA reaches $135, transition back to 45D short put spreads. - Focus on strikes below the established support levels at $102 or $118 to maintain a high probability of success. 2. Reestablish LEAP Put: - Initiate a new LEAP put with a strike above the $60 target (e.g., $75–$85). - Aim for September as the reversal point for the long-term bearish trend. Phase 5: Targeting September Reversal 1. Monitor for $60 Reversal: - Expect NVDA to reach $60 by September based on your thesis and technical analysis. - Exit the LEAP put as NVDA approaches $60 or shows reversal signs. 2. Reassess Market Conditions: - At this stage, reevaluate NVDA’s fundamentals, market conditions, and technical indicators. - Consider transitioning to bullish strategies if the broader market outlook aligns. ________________________________________ VI. Risk Management 1. Defined Risk: Short put spreads limit downside exposure to predefined levels, making the strategy suitable for high-volatility environments. 2. Capital Allocation: - Allocate no more than 5% of the portfolio to short put spreads per expiration cycle. - Use 2-3% for the LEAPS hedge. 3. Adjustment Plan: - Roll short puts if NVDA approaches the strike, maintaining a minimum credit. - Exit LEAPS hedge if NVDA stabilizes above $149. 4. Macro Monitoring: Regularly assess market conditions and adjust timelines and strikes accordingly. ________________________________________ VII. Conclusion: The Final Destination for NVDA NVIDIA’s trajectory over the next two years mirrors a thriller like Final Destination. While we can map out the twists and turns with technical analysis and strategic foresight, the market ultimately has its own plans. Our tools—like Fibonacci retracements, options strategies, and risk management frameworks—act as a way to anticipate the curves ahead, but they don’t guarantee a safe landing. The real challenge lies in adapting to the unknowns, balancing preparation with flexibility. Whether NVDA’s final destination is a triumphant recovery or a deeper pullback, this approach equips us to navigate the ride with confidence, knowing we’ve done everything to prepare for whatever fate may unfold. ________________________________________ Footnote This analysis represents a trading thesis based on technical and fundamental insights. It is not intended to be acted upon blindly or as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and the success or failure of the outlined strategies cannot be guaranteed. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on this thesis. Always consult a financial professional before implementing any investment strategy.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by bcavin
5
Daily Analysis of Gold Ounce to USD – Issue 176The analyst believes that the price of { XAUUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
XAUUSD: 23/12 Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily resistance 2660, support below 2580 Four-hour resistance 2650, support below 2600 Gold operation suggestions: Last Friday, the overall technical side of gold ushered in a wide range of long and short shocks. After the continuous decline and plunge on Thursday, the previous day, breaking the 2600 mark, it rebounded slightly throughout the day on Friday. It ushered in an accelerated high breakthrough before and after the US market and stood above the 2610 mark to continue the bullish rebound. It closed near 2622 last Friday. Today, gold opened in the Asian session and was not strong. It began to fluctuate. Gold has not had a unilateral market for the time being. From the 4-hour analysis, today's short-term support below is around 2627, focusing on the 2600 first-line support, and the upper pressure is around 2650-60. It is bullish above the 2627 daily level long-short watershed. Because Christmas is coming soon, gold can be bought on dips. BUY:2627near BUY:2622near Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ActuaryJ
Gold is experiencing a massive sell-off, today's market analysisGold fluctuates in a wide range. The hourly chart forms a converging triangle. Pay attention to the range of 2603-2630 to buy low and sell high. The market will be closed early today on Christmas Eve and will be closed all day tomorrow. Gold bulls are powerless, and the main market is still under the control of bears. The gold 1-hour chart hit 2633 twice and was blocked. Then the short-term gold has formed a double top. Gold may fall further. The gold moving average resistance now moves down to around 2632! First support: 2608, second support: 2600, third support: 2588 First resistance: 2620, second resistance: 2632, third resistance: 2646 Trading strategy: BUY: 2603-2601 SELL: 2628-2630
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
BTC USD IdeaWe are closely looking level 90,682.58 on the BTC/USD pair. It appears the market is entering a bearish pullback towards the end of the year. On the order book, we see large funds selling positions to secure year-end profits. We consider this market condition a pullback phase if we break through the 90,682.58 fractal low. This is normal and occurs every December in the markets. Overall, we only scalp trade during December and January, without expecting any significant moves. We will keep you posted if volume returns to the markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by themarketknight
View Of #BTC for 2025 on 2D Time FrameMy target of 1 #BTC = 100K$ is completed. Now, on 12/24/2024, I update my new technical analysis of #BTC for 2025. The red top 3 can stop anywhere in the 108K-130K zone. The blue 12345 is the small wave of the red wave 3. The blue top 5 can also stop anywhere in the 108K-130K zone to create the red top 3. Supposing the red wave 3 ended at the 108K peak, the blue 4 will not stop in the 92K-85K zone, but there will be a D1 candle closing below 85K to confirm that the price can go deeper to the red bottom 4 before continuing to increase in price according to the red wave 5.
by LuckyStudent02
Safe entry AMD Buy and HoldNASDAQ:AMD AMD is currently showing a solid pullback from its all-time high (ATH), with shares trading around $124. While $120 looks like a strong entry point, there’s potential for the stock to dip further, possibly hitting $100. Time will tell if it reaches that level. Under the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, AMD has evolved into one of the top semiconductor giants, making impressive gains in both CPU market share and stock value in recent years. With a rapidly expanding footprint in the AI chip market, the company is well-positioned for future growth. My 2025 price target for AMD is approximately $250, driven by its continued innovation and strong market dynamics.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Hoosh
Comparing US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX, fundamental/technical analysisProposed technical/fundamental analysis for US10Y/DXY/US500/VIX. Bank unrealized losses on available-for-sale and held to maturity securities was $364 billion in Q3 2024; this number will continue to increase as long-term treasure rates increase (www.fdic.gov). US10Y yield chart looks for yield to go higher, north of 5%. If treasury rates continue to increase, there may be a bank run, as banks get more and more underwater with their unrealized losses. DXY will go up above 120, US500 will crater below October 2022 low of 3490.2, and VIX will pop towards 80.
TVC:US10Y
by discobiscuit