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GBPNZD: Potential Reversal From The Resistance ZoneGBPNZD: Potential Reversal From The Resistance Zone GBPNZD tested an area that was also tested earlier at the beginning of March 2025 From the chart, we can see that this zone has stopped the price several times on the past. The chances are that GBPNZD may start a bearish wave from the same zone again despite that the market has frozen for all instruments lately. The Geopolitical situation looks more stable, which can help all currencies regain direction. NZD is already oversold too much so it can take advantage of this moment. Key target areas: 2.2500; 2.2380 and 2.2280 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
1
6/23/25 - $crcl - Sizing up the short6/23/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CRCL Sizing up the short - mkt cap of this stonk is now greater than USDC mkt cap - remember, as rates go lower... so do their "profits" - competition in stables space is going to be insane, given it's such a simple product to offer - i've never seen an IPO go 10x in like 2 weeks... - so yeah. bubble. who knows what happens next. - but i'm sizing this one up. not my first rodeo. size manage properly, always. V a lil simple math let's say stable cap is 100 bn (it's not, it's 60 bn) and they get 0.035 LT rate into perpetuity with 0.05 discount rate (i'm oversimplifying here and the way i justify this is let's just assume tons of adoption on the USDC mkt cap e.g. 50% higher and just put that at steady state - assume no competition) - that's 3.5 bn divided by 5% = $70 bn. or equal to today's mkt cap. anything that we see in the stock here going fwd is just going to retrace, fundamentally... idk when. but we're already at FULL AF valuation, fundamentally. chart bros won't do that math for you. but i will :)
NYSE:CRCLShort
by VROCKSTAR
1
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown. Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time. It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market. The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending). Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities. What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years. All the best, Tim April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
TVC:DXYShort
by timwest
5
Updated Chart and Levels. Peace firstVideo: 🕊️💛 Bitcoin Love and Peace! Let's go 🚀🧘‍♂️ Hello Traders, The world may be tense, but Bitcoin is offering a beacon of calm and opportunity. 🌍💡 We've established strong support at 106,153 and 105,962, and with peace settling in geopolitically and a softer tone from the Fed, the market is primed for movement. 📊 What I see: Support is holding beautifully Short-term breakout structure building up Immediate resistance at 109,801 Bigger test zones at 113,800 and 114,598 Altcoins? They're sitting in the backseat. BTC dominance is around 65%, confirming that Bitcoin is the leader right now. If you're hunting momentum, this is where your focus should be. As I always say—never long disaster, never short peace. And right now, with the War of 12 Days behind us, Bitcoin reflects hope and progress. So let’s trade smart, stay grounded, and always remember—hate makes you part of the problem, love makes you part of the solution. Let’s build a world where even enemies become friends. 💞 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
Safe Entry Zone NIOGreen Zone Is Safe Entry and Retest before exploding higher. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NYSE:NIO
by Faisalzor
Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar. The Spring Is Compressing.In previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key drivers of the US outperformance over the past decade. The US market dominance has been largely driven by the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach and significant investor inflows. Unsatisfactory International Performance Markets outside the US have faced headwinds including multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger US dollar and the declining influence of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, US equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also widely dominated by the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three big themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the world's dominant reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend implies a shift away from the central role of the US dollar in global economic transactions to alternative currencies, assets, or financial systems. Historical context and significance of the US dollar The US dollar became the world's primary reserve currency after World War II, as enshrined in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. This system pegged other currencies to the dollar, which was convertible into gold, making the dollar the backbone of international finance. The United States became the world's leading economic power, and the dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the dominant currency for global trade and reserves. The dollar has been the most widely held reserve currency for decades. As of the end of 2024, it still accounts for about 57% of global foreign exchange reserves, far more than the euro (20%) and the Japanese yen (6%). However, this share has fallen from over 70% in 2001, signaling a gradual shift and prompting discussions about de-dollarization. How De-Dollarization Works Countries looking to reduce their reliance on the dollar are pursuing several strategies: Diversifying reserves: Central banks are holding fewer U.S. dollars and increasing their holdings of other currencies, such as the euro, yen, British pound, or new alternatives such as the Chinese yuan. While the yuan's share remains small (about 2.2%), it has grown, especially among countries like Russia. Using alternative currencies in trade: Countries are entering into bilateral or regional agreements to conduct trade in their own currencies rather than using the dollar as an intermediary. For example, China has introduced yuan-denominated oil futures (the "petroyuan") to challenge the petrodollar system. Increasing gold reserves: Many countries, including China, Russia and India, have significantly increased their purchases of gold as a safer reserve asset, reducing their dollar holdings. Developing alternative financial systems: Some countries and blocs, such as BRICS, are working to develop alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT payment system to avoid the risk of sanctions and gain true economic and political independence. Reasons for de-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses dollar dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of new economic powers: Emerging economies like China and groups like the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts like the war in Ukraine have intensified efforts by countries like Russia to remove the dollar from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Implications and outlook While the dollar remains dominant, a more de-dollarized world is already changing global economic power. The U.S. may lose some advantages, such as lower borrowing costs and geopolitical influence. For the U.S. economy, de-dollarization could lead to a weaker currency, higher interest rates, and reduced foreign investment, although some effects, such as inflation from a weaker dollar, could belimited . For other countries, de-dollarization could mean greater economic independence and less exposure to U.S. policy risks. However, no currency currently matches the dollar’s ​​liquidity, stability, and global recognition, so a full transition is unlikely in the near future . Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce dependence on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization challenges the entrenched role of the dollar but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multipolar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments to the U.S. Technical task The main technical chart is presented in a quarterly breakdown, reflecting the dynamics of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD in the long term. With the continued positive momentum of the relative strength indicator RSI(14), flat support near the level of 0.70 and a decreasing resistance level (descending top/ flat bottom) in case of a breakout represent the possibility of price growth to 0.80, with the prospect of parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to all-time highs, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
by PandorraResearch
EUR/USD Biases (Long, Short, and Today’s View)EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones This will be a concise market analysis essay (around 600–700 words) suitable for a financial audience, such as forex traders or analysts. Let me begin: EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones The EUR/USD pair, one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, has exhibited strong bullish momentum in recent sessions. As of June 26, 2025, the euro’s ascent against the dollar has brought it to a critical juncture, testing significant technical and psychological resistance levels. Traders are now weighing the potential for continued upside against growing signals of exhaustion and looming fundamental catalysts. Bullish Outlook: A Technically Supported Advance From a technical perspective, the bullish case for EUR/USD remains compelling. The pair is entrenched in a sustained uptrend, marked by successive breakouts above prior resistance levels and validated by daily and weekly closes above 1.1600. The current price action is converging on a crucial supply zone located between 1.1700 and 1.1900—an area historically known for triggering reversals but also pivotal in confirming trend continuation if broken convincingly. Technical indicators further bolster the bullish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while approaching overbought territory, is still supportive of higher prices. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a widening bullish histogram, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms trend strength. Near-term resistance lies between 1.1680 and 1.1730, with potential for an extension to 1.1800 should the pair breach this upper band. On the fundamental front, improved German Ifo business sentiment data has injected optimism into the eurozone outlook. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-on sentiment in global markets have undercut the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Speculation over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts further dampens dollar strength, creating tailwinds for EUR/USD. Bearish Considerations: Resistance and Reversal Risks Despite the encouraging trend, caution is warranted. The area between 1.1700 and 1.1900 represents a major weekly order block (OB) resistance—territory where several past rallies have lost steam. Oscillators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and RSI are showing signs of overextension, and the market is now vigilant for reversal patterns or signs of exhaustion. Fundamentally, while the recent Ifo data is encouraging, it remains below the key threshold of 100, reflecting lingering skepticism about the eurozone's full recovery. Moreover, upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly GDP figures and jobless claims, could act as potential catalysts for a dollar rebound. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials could also tilt sentiment, especially if it dampens expectations of rate cuts. If EUR/USD fails to hold above the 1.1700–1.1730 resistance zone, a corrective move toward 1.1530–1.1500 becomes plausible. Deeper pullbacks could extend toward 1.1470 and 1.1390, especially if risk sentiment reverses or economic data surprises in favor of the dollar. Today’s View: Bullish with a Note of Caution For today, June 26, the prevailing bias remains bullish, yet increasingly cautious. The pair is testing the lower end of the 1.1700 OB zone. A decisive break and hold above this level would likely unleash further upside toward 1.1730 and 1.1800. However, overbought conditions and proximity to a known resistance zone suggest that traders should remain alert to potential rejection. Intraday strategies favor buying on dips above 1.1600–1.1635, with stops placed just below 1.1600 and targets set at 1.1700–1.1730. Conversely, short positions should only be considered if there is a clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1730 area, with downside targets at 1.1530–1.1500 and stops above 1.1800. Conclusion The EUR/USD is currently at a pivotal inflection point. While the bullish trend is intact and supported by both technical and fundamental factors, the proximity to a major resistance zone introduces a layer of complexity. Traders must remain agile—ready to ride a breakout higher if confirmed, but equally prepared to pivot if the pair falters and signals a reversal. In markets like these, timing and confirmation are everything.
by HUGOF
CHZ Bulls Are Getting Trapped Again —Another Nasty Drop Loading?Yello Paradisers did you notice how clean this CHZ rejection was? After a textbook touch of descending resistance, the price got slammed down again, and what comes next might catch many traders off guard. If you’re not prepared, this next leg could drain portfolios fast. 💎#CHZ/USDT continues to respect its well-defined descending channel on the 12H chart. Every time price attempts to rise, it's met with aggressive selling and this latest bounce was no different. Price failed to even reach the major supply zone between 0.03800 and 0.04200 before getting rejected at the resistance layer around 0.03600. This weakness suggests buyers are running out of steam and may not have the power to defend current levels for much longer. 💎The setup is straightforward #CHZ is trading within a strong bearish structure. The lower highs and lower lows pattern remains intact, and the most recent push up couldn’t break the descending resistance line. This latest rejection also aligns with the horizontal resistance just below the supply zone, which adds confluence to the bearish outlook. Unless the price breaks and closes above 0.04423 which would invalidate the current downtrend the path of least resistance remains to the downside. 💎The next level to watch is moderate support at 0.03026, but more importantly, all eyes should be on the major support zone down at 0.02562. That’s where significant liquidity is likely to be resting and that’s where smart money will be hunting for entries once retail panic sets in. Right now, volume remains weak, and there’s no bullish momentum strong enough to break out of this channel. Until that changes, expect this to play out as another trap pushing late longs into losses before sweeping the lows. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
GOLD recovers from around $3,300 area, short-term targetsOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered slightly and is currently trading around $3,332/oz, supported by a decline in the US dollar and US bond yields. The market is closely watching the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is near a one-week low, making dollar-priced gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is holding near its lowest in more than a month. As the conflict between Israel and Iran ends, geopolitical risk levels have disappeared, safe-haven funds have flowed back and thus gold is under pressure. From a more macro perspective, gold remains in an uptrend and real yields are expected to fall further amid continued Fed easing. In the short term, if the market reprices rate cut expectations to become hawkish, this could trigger a technical correction in gold. Economic data in the coming months will be particularly important for the gold market. If inflation data remains weak or the labor market deteriorates further, Fed officials could cut rates sooner or more significantly than expected. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to have taken effect on Wednesday, a day after both countries signaled a temporary end to their conflicting air strikes. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June, reflecting growing concerns among households about job prospects and another sign of a weakening labor market amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday that higher tariffs could start to push up inflation this summer, a key period when the Fed considers whether to cut interest rates. Traders of federal funds futures are currently pricing in a cumulative 60 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, with the first cut likely to come in September. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered slightly after testing the important support area noted by readers in yesterday's edition, around the raw price point of $3,300. However, the temporary recovery is being limited by the EMA21 moving average, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can also be considered as upside targets for the time being. In terms of overall structure, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend. On the other hand, RSI is also hovering around 50, indicating that the market sentiment is still hesitant and does not have enough momentum for a complete trend. Intraday, gold still has a bullish technical outlook, but a sell-off that takes gold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bearish signal in the near term. Therefore, long positions should be opened near the $3,300 area, with protective levels behind the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,320 – $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3301 - 3303⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3297 →Take Profit 1 3309 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3315
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Safe Entry Zone ARQQ 4ever ZoneQuantum stocks in free money Ranging Zone. Green is buy. Red is sell. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the
NASDAQ:ARQQ
by Faisalzor
[XAUUSD] GOLD – Bullish Setup in Play🟡 *Key Context* - Geopolitical calm (Trump ceasefire remarks) lowered risk aversion, pushing Gold down — but key support is holding. - Fed uncertainty continues, yet technicals point to a possible reversal. 📉 *Price Structure* - Price dropped into a falling wedge, testing 3285–3295 (H4 demand zone). - RSI bullish divergence + harmonic ABCD pattern seen on 30m. 📌 *Trade Setup – Long Bias* 🔹Entry: 3285–3295 zone (watch for bullish candle confirmation) 🔹Stop Loss: Below 3280 (structure invalidation) 🔹Target 1: 3320–3330 🔹Target 2: 3390 (longer-term move) ⚠️ Volume confirmation is key — wait for breakout strength. Avoid entries during news events. Risk must be managed tightly. #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingSignal #TeconLab #BuyTheDip
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by teconlab
1
XAUUSD Technical Outlook – Rebound or Trap?1. Market Overview After a sharp rejection near the 0.618 Fibonacci level, XAUUSD has pulled back and is now trading around 3,323 USD. Although price has stabilized somewhat, technical indicators suggest this is likely a corrective move within a prevailing downtrend. 2. Technical Analysis Price Action XAUUSD is currently hovering near 3,323 USD after a failed attempt to break above the resistance zone at 3,373–3,392 USD — an area marked by: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent downtrend Repeated historical rejections. The upper boundary of a sideways consolidation range from early June. Recent candlesticks show indecision and rejection from higher levels, suggesting sellers are still in control. Support Zone Behavior The price recently bounced from the 3,294–3,317 USD range, where strong historical support and the 0.382 Fibonacci level align. This zone continues to hold, but if broken, could open the door to deeper declines toward the 3,250 or even 3,224 USD levels. RSI Indicator RSI remains flat around the neutral zone, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. No significant divergence or breakout signals are currently visible on the daily RSI chart. 3. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 3,373 – 3,392 USD: Confluence resistance zone (0.618 Fib + historical supply). 3,435 – 3,453 USD: Previous swing high – key medium-term benchmark Support: 3,294 – 3,317 USD: Immediate support, holding for now. 3,250 – 3,224 USD: Potential next target zone if bearish pressure resumes. 4. Trade Setup Scenarios. Scenario 1 – Buy if support holds and bullish confirmation appears Entry: 3,295 – 3,305 USD. Stop-loss: Below 3,289 USD. Take-profit: 3,340 – 3,355 – 3,370 USD. Condition: Look for bullish reversal patterns (e.g., Bullish Engulfing, Pin Bar) on H1–H4. Scenario 2 – Sell on rejection from resistance zone Entry: 3,370 – 3,375 USD. Stop-loss: Above 3,392 USD. Take-profit: 3,330 – 3,310 – 3,290 USD. Condition: Clear bearish rejection candlestick with diminishing volume Note: XAUUSD remains in a vulnerable state. The current move may be a technical rebound rather than a true reversal. Traders should watch closely how price behaves around the 3,373–3,392 USD zone in the coming sessions. A breakout could signal a new bullish leg, while another rejection would likely confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
3
Scalp Safe Entry Zone ARQQ AgainScalp Short Term 15M Chart. Green Zone is Buy. Take Profit is sell. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NASDAQ:ARQQ
by Faisalzor
Ethereum Price Forecast: Bullish Reversal Pattern Targets $2,700Chart Overview Timeframe: 45-minute Instrument: ETH/USD (OANDA) Price at Analysis: $2,474.82 Date of Chart: June 26, 2025 --- 📊 Pattern Analysis 1. Rounded Top (Bearish Phase) Timeframe: Roughly June 8–14 Shape: Large rounded top (highlighted in blue) Interpretation: This typically signals exhaustion in bullish momentum, which was followed by a drop in price. Price Reaction: Significant decline after the peak near $2,900. 2. Sideways Range/Consolidation Timeframe: June 16–21 Highlighted Box: Orange rectangle Interpretation: A period of indecision before the next move, eventually leading to a breakdown. 3. Rounded Bottom (Bullish Reversal) Timeframe: June 21–25 Shape: Cup-like formation highlighted in yellow Interpretation: Suggests potential bullish reversal. The price bounced from the support zone (green band near $2,200). --- 🔍 Key Levels Level Type Price Range Notes Support $2,200–$2,250 Historical buy zone (green shaded area) Resistance ~$2,900 Previous high and key psychological level Target ~$2,700 Highlighted with label "Target" --- 🔄 Price Action & Prediction The chart suggests a bullish projection with a zigzag-style recovery: Expected minor retracement around $2,500–$2,550 Gradual climb toward $2,700 Final leg up marked as the “Target” This forecast is visualized with a dotted blue path showing higher lows and higher highs—a classic bullish structure. --- ⚠ Risk Considerations Rejection at $2,500–$2,550: May delay the bullish push. Break below $2,300: Would invalidate the rounded bottom setup and suggest bearish continuation. Macro Events: The presence of calendar icons (likely U.S. economic data) can cause volatility.
OANDA:ETHUSDLong
by Aria-Margot-Fx
ARKK: when a breakout isn’t just a breakout-it’s a runway to $91On the weekly chart, ARKK has broken out of a long-standing ascending channel, ending a year-long consolidation phase. The breakout above $71.40, with a confident close and rising volume, signals a transition from accumulation to expansion. The move came right after a golden cross (MA50 crossing MA200), further confirming institutional interest. Price has already cleared the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements — and the 1.618 extension points to $91.40 as the next technical target. Momentum indicators like MACD and stochastic remain bullish with room to run. Volume profile shows low supply above $75, which could fuel an acceleration toward the target zone. Fundamentally, ARKK remains a high-beta, high-risk vehicle — but one with focus. The ETF is positioned around next-gen tech: AI, robotics, biotech, and automation. Assets under management now exceed $9.3B with +$1.1B net inflow in 2025. YTD return stands at 37%, and its top holdings (TSLA, NVDA, COIN) are back in favor. This isn’t just a bet on innovation — it’s diversified exposure to a full-blown tech rally. Tactical setup: — Entry: market $69.50 or on retest — Target: $80.21 (1.272), $91.40 (1.618 Fibo) Sometimes a breakout is just technical. But when there’s volume, a golden cross, and billions backing it — it’s a signal to buckle up.
CBOE:ARKKLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Gold fluctuated slightly, retreating to low-multiple operations 📌 Gold news During the North American trading session on Wednesday, gold prices remained stable, rising by more than 0.30% as easing tensions between Israel and Iran boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, disappointing US housing data may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take action in the future. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tough stance has limited further upside for gold. 📊Comment analysis Gold fluctuated in a small range yesterday, and the daily line closed with a positive cross star. Daily support is around 3327-3324, and you can go long if you touch it. Daily resistance is around 3368, and you can go short if you touch it. If the market goes down to yesterday's low, the bottom continues to look near this week's low, and I am more inclined to be bullish 💰Gold operation strategy If gold is close to 3327, you can go long, with a target of 3345. Look for opportunities to short around 3350-3360, with a target around 3330. I hope Labaron's article can help you with your investment. If you don't understand something, you can find me. I am not only a mentor, but also a friend worth making in your life. ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
xauusd buy Gold price trades with a mild positive for the second straight day on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through and remains below the $3,350 level through the early European session. Reports that US President Donald Trump was considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns over the future independence of the US central bank. xauusd buy 3333 support 3370 support 3400 support 3500 On the flip side, any subsequent move-up is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $3,368-3,370 region, or the trend-channel support breakpoint. A sustained strength beyond could allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 round figure, which, if cleared decisively, could negate the negative outlook and shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. The XAU/USD might then climb to the $3,434-3,435 intermediate hurdle en route to the $3,451-3,452 zone, or a nearly two-month top touched last week, and the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FxMark17
“GER30 Bull Vault Heist: The Ultimate Loot Plan”💎“The Bull Vault Job: GER30 Heist Blueprint”💎 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Welcome fellow Chart Raiders & Market Hackers 🧠💰—your next mission is here. We’re pulling off a precision breakout plan on GER30 / DE30 "Germany30" — a market vault bursting with bullish loot. This isn’t just trading... this is Thief Trading Style™ — where smart analysis meets slick execution. 👨‍💻💎📊 💼 The Heist Plan: 📈 Entry: Market shows a wide open vault. Ideal long setups near the last swing low (15–30m for sniper entries). Don’t chase—wait for the retrace. 🛑 Stop Loss: Guard your getaway! Use recent swing lows on 4H (e.g. 24170). Customize based on your risk profile & lot sizes. 🎯 Target: Aim for 24720 or EXIT before the cops (a.k.a. reversal zones) show up. Always secure your gains. 📌 Scalpers’ Signal: Stay LONG-only. Follow swing traders if low on ammo (capital). Use trailing SLs like tripwires to protect your profits. 📊 Market Heat Check: The DE30 is radiating bullish pressure 💥—fueled by fundamentals, macro trends, COT positions, sentiment indicators, and intermarket clues. We read between the lines. You just follow the blueprint. 🧠 🚨 Pro Tips: Avoid entering trades during high-impact news. Manage risk like a vault door—solid, tested, and ready. 💖 Smash that Boost Button 💖 if you believe in the Art of Legal Market Extraction™ — it supports the plan, strengthens the crew, and keeps this hustle alive! 🎭 More blueprints & breakdowns coming soon. Stay locked in... Until the next market hit, trade sharp, trade smart. 🐱‍👤📈💰
FX:GER30Long
by Thief_Trader
"BREAKOUT ALERT! XAU/EUR Bear Raid – Get In Before The Drop!"🤑 GOLD HEIST ALERT! 🚨 XAU/EUR Bearish Raid Plan (Thief Trading Style) 💰🔥 🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Snatchers! 🌟 Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Strategy🔥, we’re plotting a high-stakes bearish raid on XAU/EUR ("The Gold Market"). Our mission? Short the breakout & loot the downside! 🎯 TRADE SETUP (Scalping/Day Trade) Entry (Sell Zone) 📉: 2841.00 – Wait for Neutral Level breakout, then strike! Pro Tip: Place sell-stop below support or sell-limit on pullback (15-30min TF). Set an ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout moment. Stop Loss 🛑: "Stop right there, cowboy! 🤠 If you’re entering on a sell-stop, DO NOT set SL before breakout! Thief SL Rule: Nearest swing high (30min TF) – Adjust based on your risk & lot size. Rebels, be warned – stray at your own peril! 🔥 Target 🎯: 2815.00 (Lock profits & escape like a pro thief!) 💡 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bearish Triggers) Technical Setup: Oversold bounce? Trap. Strong bearish reversal brewing. Fundamentals: Macro risks, COT data, geopolitics – Gold’s under pressure! News Alert 🚨: High-impact events ahead! Avoid new trades during news – trail stops to protect gains. 💥 BOOST THE HEIST! 💥 Like & Boost this idea to strengthen our robbery crew! More loot = more winning trades. Stay tuned for the next heist! 🚀💰 ⚠️ Disclaimer: Trade at your own risk. This is not financial advice – just a strategic raid plan. Manage risk wisely!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUEURShort
by Thief_Trader
Report - June 26, 20251. Ceasefire, Oil, and Market Sentiment: Markets are stabilizing after a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A ceasefire, brokered by President Trump, appears to be holding, encouraging risk-on sentiment across global asset classes. Brent crude has fallen back to $68.17 per barrel, erasing earlier war-driven spikes. Traders swiftly sold oil after Iran's symbolic missile attack on a US base in Qatar, interpreting it as a move to de-escalate rather than escalate. This rapid reaction, fueled by open-source intelligence and satellite imagery showing the base was empty, helped unwind the geopolitical premium in crude. Energy consultancy Rystad noted Iran even increased crude exports amid the conflict due to lack of refining capacity. With OPEC+ boosting supply and US shale output high, the market anticipates an oversupplied scenario by year-end. Strategists like Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects) expect crude to test $50–60, while RBC’s Helima Croft said the White House is unlikely to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, given sufficient alternative supply buffers. 2. Equities and Sector Rotation: US equity indices were mixed: the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% to 22,237.74, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dipped slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 1.1% to 16.77, signaling easing investor fear. Year-to-date, tech leads with XLK up 31.95%, followed by communications (XLC +23.46%) and discretionary (XLY +18.69%). Defensive sectors lagged: utilities (XLU +19.13%), consumer staples (XLP +9.15%), and real estate (XLRE -1.27%). Recent sector performance reflects a recalibration away from energy and interest-rate sensitive names. XLE has tumbled 4.65% over the past five days, mirroring declining oil, while XLRE’s underperformance worsened, highlighting investor caution in yield-sensitive areas. The growth/value debate continues: large-cap growth (IWF) was the only factor posting a gain (+0.29%), while small-cap growth (IJT) fell 1.2%, underscoring preference for quality and scale. 3. Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields: Rates edged higher. The US 10Y Treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.32%. Germany’s 10Y bund climbed 3 bps to 2.57%, and UK gilts ticked up 1 bp to 4.46%, driven by expectations of higher issuance to fund increased NATO defense spending. US Treasuries across the curve remain elevated: 1Y at 3.99%, 2Y at 3.77%, and 30Y at 4.81%. Despite global easing signals, sovereign borrowing costs stay elevated, reflecting inflation stickiness and geopolitical risk premia. TIPs and agency MBS have outperformed on a 1Y basis, with TIP +4.7% and GNMA +5.76%. 4. NATO Commitment and Fiscal Risk: At The Hague summit, NATO allies pledged to meet Trump's demand for 5% of GDP in defense spending by 2035, a seismic shift from the previous 2% benchmark. While reaffirming Article 5 commitments, Trump emphasized US support hinges on European “burden sharing,” pressuring Spain for opting out. The summit declaration promises annual roadmaps and a 2029 review—coinciding with Trump’s potential exit from office. Germany’s Chancellor Merz called the commitment a moment of “putting our money where our mouth is,” but bond markets reacted with concern. The FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, and the DAX fell 0.6%, reflecting fiscal anxieties tied to expanded military budgets. 5. Policy Front – Trump’s Tax Push & Debt Outlook: The White House claims its proposed tax bill will lower debt via growth and tariff revenue. CEA estimates show debt-to-GDP dropping to 94% by 2034 with $8.5–11.2 trillion in deficit reduction. Yet the CBO projects the bill would add $2.4 trillion to deficits—and $2.8 trillion when factoring in higher rates. Trump’s pressure campaign on Senate Republicans includes urging round-the-clock negotiations. However, concerns linger among fiscal hawks like Sen. Ron Johnson, who warned of “an acute debt crisis.” 6. Credit Markets and Insurance Breakdown Risk: Credit spreads are holding stable, but US liability insurance is flashing red. Marsh data shows US casualty insurance rates have risen for 23 straight quarters. Executives at Everest and Aspen warn of a “breakdown” in coverage availability due to runaway litigation costs and “forever chemicals” claims. Everest’s reserves for US casualty risks now top $1.7 billion. Insurers are lobbying for tort reform, and rate hikes of 20–25% in excess liability are becoming the norm. This insurance squeeze poses a serious inflationary threat to businesses, especially in logistics, construction, and hospitality. 7. Trade Disruption – FedEx Feels the Pinch: FedEx shares dropped nearly 6% after warning of sharp deterioration in China–US freight, driven by the end of the “de minimis” $800 tariff exemption used by platforms like Temu and Shein. This lane, their most profitable intercontinental route, now faces structural weakness. While Q4 net income rose 13% to $1.65B, guidance for EPS of $3.40–4.00 (below expectations) reflects uncertainty ahead. 8. M&A Spotlight – Brighthouse Bidding Heats Up: TPG and Aquarian Holdings are the final bidders for Brighthouse Financial, a $3.5B life insurer. Despite interest from Apollo, Carlyle, and Blackstone, many walked due to legacy annuity liabilities and high capital charges. The strategic appeal remains strong: control over policyholder premiums enhances credit origination capabilities for private capital platforms. An exclusive negotiation could emerge in the coming week. 9. Political Heat – Warren Targets Private Equity: Senator Elizabeth Warren is probing PE firms (Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, Bain, Thoma Bravo) for lobbying efforts related to the “carried interest” loophole and private credit tax breaks embedded in Trump’s tax bill. The senator demands disclosures by July 2, while Trump pushes for bill signing by July 4. The American Investment Council responded that raising taxes on private capital would “kill jobs” and hurt innovation. The legislation, approved narrowly in the House, slashes taxes and expands debt—a key flashpoint heading into summer recess. 10. Currency, Commodities, and Global Trends: Brent crude trades at $67.95 and WTI at $65.18. Gold holds at $3,335, up 45% YTD, though recent profit-taking has slowed its rally. Silver (+26.2% YTD) and copper (+12.5%) also reflect bullish industrial demand. In FX, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3705; EUR/USD is at 1.1681 (+0.02%). USD/JPY slid to 144.57 (-0.66%). On a 1Y basis, GBP and EUR are both up over 8%, while the yen is down nearly 10.5%, continuing its depreciation due to BOJ’s dovish stance. --- Equities: Current Positioning: Equities are delicately balanced. The S&P 500 is up +3.6% YTD, Nasdaq +3.4%, but Dow only +1.0%, reflecting the rotation into growth, defensives, and high-cap tech. However, small caps are under heavy pressure (IJR/SPY -1.05% daily, down YTD), and value is again underperforming. Tactical Implications: Overweight: Large-Cap Growth (e.g., XLK, IWF) – Mega-cap tech remains the secular winner (+31.95% YTD in XLK). Given moderating rates and weak cyclicals, expect further leadership unless yields spike. Underweight: Small-Caps (IWM), Real Estate (XLRE), and Energy (XLE) – These are vulnerable to tightening credit, low breadth, and oil retracements. XLRE is -1.27% YTD and XLE dropped -4.65% in the past week alone. Neutral: Financials (XLF) – The sector is at a crossroads. While yields support net interest margins, the liability insurance shock and credit pricing discipline weigh on capital-intensive names. Actionable View: Stay concentrated in quality tech and cash-flow-rich defensives. Consider rotating out of overextended discretionary and look for short-term mean reversion trades in oversold industrials only on technicals. Fixed Income: Market: The UST 10Y yield is at 4.32%, up 2bps on the day. Notably, the 2Y/10Y curve is flattening again (+55bps spread), but with upward pressure on the long end driven by fiscal overhang (NATO rearmament, tax cuts). Strategic View: Short Duration Preferred – Laddered Treasuries and 1–3Y paper outperforming (e.g., SHY +0.65% YTD). Long duration remains risky despite falling inflation, given massive expected issuance. TIPS as Inflation Hedge – TIPs up +4.7% YTD continue to provide inflation-linked protection. Elevated defense and healthcare spending bolster this theme. Credit Call: High-Grade Corporate (LQD) – Valuation remains stretched, but spread stability gives buffer. Prefer LQD over HYG or CWB, where spreads are at risk due to funding costs and insurance withdrawal risk. Action: Maintain a core laddered Treasury base, with modest high-grade credit. Fade the long end on rallies; use TLT as a tactical short if 10Y breaches 4.4–4.5%. Commodities: Key Developments: Brent crude fell sharply (-6.1%) post-ceasefire, now at $67.95. Markets no longer price geopolitical premium. Iran’s production rising, US SPR untapped, and China’s buying shifting. Gold stabilizing at $3,335 after peaking on war fears; silver remains stronger at $36.34 (+26.2% YTD). Outlook: Oil: Short-Term Bearish to Neutral – Expect continued selling on rallies unless supply chain disruptions emerge. Range: $62–70/bbl. Gold: Wait for Re-Entry – Momentum slowing but structural inflation hedging still intact. Look for re-entry near $3,200. Position cautiously if dollar strengthens. Ags: Avoid – Corn and wheat continue to slide. Corn -7.5% MTD and -10.3% 3M; soybeans -11.7% YTD. No catalysts to reverse. Action: Tactical shorts in oil remain viable unless Iran–Strait of Hormuz risk flares again. Hedge tail risks with gold but reduce exposure if USD rallies. Currencies: DXY weakening slowly, but USD/JPY still at 144.5 (-9.42% 1Y), EUR/USD firm at 1.1681. Sterling outperforming: GBP/USD +8.2% 1Y. Implications: Short USD/JPY Holds – BOJ still dovish, yen oversold, risk-on flows support reversal. High conviction macro long on JPY. Watch GBP/USD – Strong rally, nearing overbought territory. Use strength to rotate to EUR if ECB surprises. EMFX Mixed – Avoid high beta EM (ZAR, TRY) due to USD and rates. Selective value in BRL, INR if USD pulls back further. Action: Maintain partial USD hedge via EUR and JPY. EMFX traders should stay risk-off short term; low carry + volatile backdrop makes it unattractive. Credit & Insurance Markets: Everest ($1.7bn reserves) and Aspen warning of “coverage breakdown” in US casualty insurance. Litigation exposure (PFAS, data privacy, social cases) is a systemic risk. FedEx’s collapse in China–US freight (-6% equity) is a red flag on consumption + supply chain health. Expect more insurers to restrict exposure to high-litigation US states or raise rates >25%. Positioning: Be cautious on mid-cap financials, reinsurers, and commercial real estate debt with liability linkage. Corporate credit: Avoid HY and convertibles. LQD remains the safe zone.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku