AUDNZD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISAUDNZD has finally broken out of a well-formed falling wedge pattern on the 12H timeframe, signaling a potential bullish reversal. After a sustained downtrend, price consolidated within the wedge, indicating decreasing bearish momentum. The recent breakout confirms buyer strength and opens the door for a fresh upside swing. The current price sits around 1.072, and based on technical structure and projected pattern targets, we could be heading towards the 1.105 zone.
From a fundamental standpoint, the Australian Dollar is gaining support due to rising commodity demand and hawkish tones from the RBA, hinting at a possibility of sustained higher interest rates. On the other hand, the New Zealand Dollar has been under pressure due to softer-than-expected CPI data and growing speculation that the RBNZ might be done with its tightening cycle. This divergence in central bank stance adds fuel to the AUDNZD bullish narrative. Today’s macro releases show stable Australian employment data and a dip in New Zealand’s retail figures, which further supports the bullish view.
This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, especially with a clean invalidation below 1.062. If the momentum sustains, price may accelerate quickly toward the 1.105 target. Market participants should also keep an eye on DXY (US Dollar Index) correlations and global risk sentiment, which could amplify volatility across AUD and NZD pairs.
As a professional trader, I’ll be monitoring price action closely near lower timeframes for confirmation entries and managing the trade with dynamic stop-loss adjustments. This breakout is technically clean, fundamentally supported, and strategically aligned with the current macro backdrop – making it a high-probability swing setup worth sharing.
Fundamental Analysis
Nasdaq on Thin Ice? Smart Money is Bearish!📊 COT Analysis – NASDAQ E-MINI Futures
Asset Managers → Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows.
Leveraged Money → Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce.
✅ COT Conclusion:
Smart money is not buying the dip → fundamental bias = bearish.
🧠 Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade
📉 Structure:
Strong rejection from the 16,700–17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation.
Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone → confirming strong buyer pressure.
🎯 My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP):
Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone
Target: Supply zone 20,400–21,000
Exit: Closed just before the drop → perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance
📈 Post-trade context:
Price then rejected violently from that zone → we’re now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700.
🧭 What’s Next?
🔹 If price pulls back to 19,200–19,500, I’ll look for a short setup
🔹 If it breaks below 18,000 → clean path toward 16,700–16,500
✅ Trade Summary
🔥 Long from structural demand zone → exit at weekly supply
🧠 Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence
🐻 Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely
Gold Eyes $3370 After Bullish Breakout and Consolidation PatternThis chart analysis showcases a bullish breakout in the Gold Spot vs USD (XAU/USD) on the 15-minute timeframe. After a significant downtrend, a breakout above the descending trendline occurred, signaling a potential reversal. Price is now consolidating within a rising wedge, aiming for the key resistance zone around $3,370.
Explanation:
Breakout Confirmation: The chart highlights a clear breakout from a descending trendline, marked by a circle. This breakout is a key signal that bearish momentum has weakened and bulls are gaining control.
Bullish Structure: Post-breakout, the price has formed a bullish continuation pattern, indicated by a wedge (or triangle). This pattern often precedes upward moves.
Target Zone: The marked resistance zone around $3,370 is a previous supply area. The chart suggests this is the next key level bulls might aim for.
Projected Move: The blue arrow outlines a possible price path toward this target, assuming continued buying pressure.
This setup provides a potential buying opportunity, but traders should watch for confirmation and manage risk with appropriate stop-loss levels below recent support zones.
Dogecoin-DOGEUSD Periodic Analysis-Issue 78 (Free The analyst believes that theprice of DOGE/USD will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend.
___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Altcoin Market Update – April 24, 2025As of today, the TOTAL3 Index (excluding BTC & ETH) offers key insights into the altcoin market:
⸻
Technical Overview:
• 1D: -1.54% → Minor pullback
• 1W: +6.37% → Bullish momentum
• 1M: -4.14% → Mid-term correction
• 6M: +32.94% → Strong growth
#TOTAL3 remains above $790B, a critical support. Holding this level is vital for future altcoin rally targets like $1.16T and beyond.
Bullish divergence on the TOTAL3/BTC chart hints at altcoins gaining strength over BTC.
⸻
Fundamentals:
• The global crypto market cap is $3.03T
• BTC & ETH dominate, but TOTAL3 reflects altcoin potential
⸻
Summary:
Altcoin market remains optimistic, with solid long-term signals. Keep an eye on support zones and momentum indicators for your trading strategy.
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day.
The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar.
There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here.
I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern.
I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see.
I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty.
Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms.
Wishing everyone peace and prosperity!
Tim West
11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
US30 Approaching Key Support Zone – Potential Reversal Ahead?📊 Chart Overview:
Timeframe: Looks like an intraday (maybe 1H or 2H).
Indicators:
EMA 50 (Red): 38,964.7
EMA 200 (Blue): 39,637.0
🔍 Key Levels & Structure:
🔵 Support Zone (Highlighted):
Around 36,800 – 37,200 range.
This is a well-tested support level where price previously bounced.
Current price action is approaching this zone again, which increases the chance of a potential bullish reaction.
🟣 Resistance Level:
Defined around 40,500 area.
Price has rejected multiple times from this zone.
Previously served as a consolidation/decision area.
📍 Focus Point (Previous Support Turned Resistance):
Near 38,700 – 39,000.
This level may act as a reaction point on the way back up.
📉 Current Price Action:
Strong downward momentum heading into the support zone.
Price is under both EMAs, suggesting short-term bearish trend.
However, the drawn arrow suggests a potential reversal bounce from the support.
🧠 Interpretation & Scenario Plan:
🅰️ Bullish Scenario:
Price touches or sweeps the support zone.
Bullish structure or reversal candle forms (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing).
Break back above EMA 50 & Focus Point could confirm the shift.
Target: Revisit Resistance Zone (above 40,000).
🅱️ Bearish Scenario:
Support fails to hold.
Clean break below 36,800 with volume could lead to accelerated sell-off.
Watch for breakdown retests of support turned resistance.
🔔 Takeaway:
⚠️ Current move is bearish, but price is approaching a key demand zone. Bulls might step in if the zone holds. Confirmation is key before going long. Reclaiming EMAs would strengthen bullish bias.
XAUUSD Bullish Setup | Bounce from Major Support Zone!Hello dear friends 👋
GOLD/XAUUSD Trade Signal Technical Analysis Setup 👇
Gold is showing strong bullish reversal signals—let’s look for a buy setup!
• Trade Setup 📈
📊 • Entry Zone: 3,280 – 3,300
🔹 • Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,400
🔹 • Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,470
🔹 • Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,545
⭕ • Stop Loss (SL): 3,260
Technical Analysis Setup:
• Strong support zone holding with multiple rejections.
• Price forming higher lows and potential breakout setup.
• Momentum shift indicating bullish pressure building.
⚠ Manage your risk wisely!
Let the market work in your favor—patience and discipline matter. Do Trade at your own risk.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) Receives Analyst UpgradeMeta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 30. Ahead of the release, the stock is trading at $532.16, down over 18% year-to-date. Concerns about a pullback in ad spending and rising AI infrastructure costs had weighed heavily on investor sentiment. However, robust engagement trends and a notably cheaper 16x EV/EBIT valuation have prompted a shift in outlook. The stock has been upgraded from Sell to Hold.
Despite macroeconomic challenges and regulatory fines from the EU, analysts maintain a positive long-term view. Benchmark’s Mark Zgutowicz cut his price target to $640 from $820 but reaffirmed a Buy rating. He highlighted Meta’s long-term strength in U.S. digital ad markets and its disciplined capital allocation.
Similarly, Stifel’s Mark Kelley reduced his target to $628, citing cautiousness in the e-commerce and subscriptions space. He acknowledged market discomfort reminiscent of the COVID-19 era.
Meanwhile, Monness’s Brian White maintained a Buy rating with a $775 target, projecting Q1 revenue of $41.73 billion and earnings of $5.54 per share. Analysts, on average, expect EPS of $5.24 and revenue of $41.3 billion, suggesting double-digit growth. The stock holds a Strong Buy consensus from Wall Street. Out of 46 analysts, 42 rate it Buy, three Hold, and one Sell. The average price target of $705 implies a potential 35.5% upside from current levels.
Technical Analysis
META has rebounded sharply off a key ascending trendline support that dates back to April 2024. The recent recovery from around $475 coincided with the ascending trendline. The price has been bullish overall, as seen from the 200-day moving average at $408.64.
Price is now about to reclaim both the 100-day ($549.11) and 50-day ($601.58) moving averages. The chart indicates a possible near-term pullback followed by a push toward the $740.91 high. Volume is currently at 44.25 million shares, suggesting rising interest.
MAGIC – Building Energy for the Next Move?Hey traders!
#MAGIC has shown strong volume over the past few days, and now it's consolidating sideways – hovering just above a key support zone. This kind of setup often signals that a bigger move is brewing... but which way?
Here’s what we’re watching:
✅ Support holding firm – buyers seem to be stepping in around this level.
✅ Volume remains healthy, indicating continued interest.
✅ Price is coiling, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
📌 Our Plan:
We’re eyeing a breakout above the resistance level for confirmation of the next leg up. Once that happens, we’ll look for a retest of the breakout zone as our entry point for a long position – backed by proper risk management, of course! 💯
🎯 Target: Previous highs
📉 Invalidation: Clear breakdown below support
What do you think? Are you watching MAGIC too? Drop your thoughts, charts, or setups below! Let’s build together. 🔥👇
#MAGIC #Altcoins #CryptoTrading #BreakoutSetup #PriceAction #SupportAndResistance #VolumeAnalysis #TradeSetup #TradingView #CryptoCommunity
Gold's decline under pressure is in line with expectations! Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: This week, gold prices fluctuated, opening at 3332. So far, the high is 3500 US dollars and the low is 3260 US dollars. On Monday, it soared by 100 US dollars. On Tuesday, it continued to rise to 3500 highs in the Asian session and then fell back. On Tuesday and Wednesday, it plummeted by nearly 240 US dollars. The volatility slowed down on Thursday. The overall intraday fluctuations remained within 3367-3288. Today, the weekly line closed. The weekly line will compete for the closing of the Yin-Yang cross K line. The short-term is more intense. From the consolidation on Thursday, there is no further decline, which also leaves room and suspense for today's weekly closing. If the weekly line closes lower, it is expected to adjust further next week. Pay attention to the closing strength and weakness of the weekly K line this week.
Today's opening trend of the gold market is like yesterday. The Asian session started the upward mode, rising all the way to around 3370 US dollars. However, it encountered strong resistance here, and then turned downward and started a decline. It is worth noting that today's gold price not only failed to break through this key resistance level, but also fell below the low hit in yesterday's European and American sessions, falling to a low of US$3,287 before rebounding.
In view of the important trend of gold price breaking the key point, the market will most likely continue the short-selling idea in the future. From the current market structure, the position of $3260 has become the focus of the market. Investors need to pay close attention to whether the gold price can reach or even fall below this point. Once it effectively falls below, the short-selling trend will be further strengthened, and the market may usher in a deeper adjustment.
From the hourly level, yesterday's low was at $3306, and the rebound just now showed an obvious stop signal at this position. Based on this, the current short-term suppression level can refer to $3315, and the upper level is $3328. For short-term investors, you can consider waiting for the gold price to rebound to around $3315 to arrange a short order and continue to be bearish on the gold price. The first thing to pay attention to below is the support of the low point just touched at $3287. If this support level is lost, the next key support level will be $3260, the first low point on the previous downward journey. If $3260 is also effectively broken, the short-selling force will be further released, and the gold price may face a larger decline. On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebound and long on pullback. The upper short-term focus is on the 3315-3320 resistance line, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3285-3260 support line. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Gold operation strategy reference: short gold rebound near 3310-3320, target near 3290-3285, break to see 3260 line.
Gold pullback near 3270-3260 long, target near 3290-3310, break to see 3330 line.
GBPNZD Long 4/25/2025GBP/NZD Long – Channel Break Targeting Origin Liquidity + Daily Demand Bounce
Looking to go long on GBP/NZD after a clean technical break from a multi-session descending channel, supported by strong higher timeframe structure.
Daily Chart:
We've established a solid bottom around 2.2131, with two daily candle closes showing strong buyer defense.
Price also tapped into a key daily demand zone at 2.21336 — a well-respected structure level. We're now clearly bouncing off that zone, giving this long setup extra weight from a higher timeframe perspective.
Structure:
The pair has been moving within a descending channel that began at 2.4793. I prefer trading channels back to their origin, where liquidity tends to pool — and that’s our longer-term upside target.
4H Chart:
We just got a strong bullish candle breaking the channel, signaling a potential reversal is in motion.
Trade Thesis:
With a higher timeframe demand bounce + channel break + bullish momentum, this setup is aligned for continuation.
I’m looking for price to work its way back to the top of the channel and eventually toward the origin level near 2.4793.
Target & Risk:
Target: Origin zone near 2.4793
Risk-Reward: 1:1.73
Stop: Just below the breakout candle low and daily demand
Clean multi-timeframe confluence: daily structure, channel break, and bullish pressure off demand.
USDJPY On The Verge Of A CollapseA simple trade setup with good risk/reward but with huge economic implications should this structure CRACK!
With all H&S patterns, the risk is that it head tests before breaking down.
We've seen this play out recently in NFLX
That is why it is important to wait for the CRACK! And not front-run the trade.
Oscillating downward! The bearish trend is beginning to emerge!【Gold Analysis】
Interpretation of news: The current market presents a "three-legged" pattern: First, the uncertainty of the trade war. If the US insists on imposing new tariffs, the gold price may hit the $3,500 mark again; second, the suspense of the Fed's policy. Whether the May meeting will release a signal of interest rate cuts will become a key turning point; finally, the trend of the US dollar. If subsequent economic data continues to deteriorate, the US dollar index may fall below the 99 integer mark. The current gold market is caught in a fierce game of long and short factors. In terms of the trade war, the situation is not as good as Trump's remarks. The Asian giant issued a solemn statement on Thursday, emphasizing that if the US is sincere about solving the problem, all unilateral tariffs should be immediately cancelled. This statement is in sharp contrast to the "negotiation signal" recently released by the White House, making the trade outlook more confusing.
The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. On the one hand, Finance Minister Bensont's statement that the trade confrontation may continue has triggered a rise in risk aversion; on the other hand, the expectation that the Fed may cut interest rates has provided fundamental support for gold. This complex psychology is the main reason why the price of gold fluctuates in the range of 3260-3500 US dollars. There is one last trading day this week. Let's see how this week ends.
From the daily chart of gold, after the exaggerated reversal in the middle of the week, the current price of gold has not only lost the important support of 3350, but also formed an obvious bearish evening star in terms of shape, which means that there may be further correction space in the future. In addition, at this stage, the short-term moving averages MA5 and MA10 have been broken one after another, so it is not ruled out that they will continue to move closer to MA20, but their position is still below 3200.
From the 4-hour chart of gold, although it once fell nearly 200 US dollars from the high, the price of gold gradually stood firm yesterday and began to fluctuate and rebound. It has now returned to above 3270. However, given that the moving average group is in a sticky state and the MACD indicator is adjusted to near the 0 axis, the short-term long and short competition may become more intense. Therefore, it is recommended to keep selling high and buying low as the main strategy, which is more stable. Pay attention to the resistance of 3370-3375 on the top and the support of 3285-3280 on the bottom;
Investment strategy: short gold at 3310-3320, target 3265.
Acadia Healthcare Company | ACHC | Long at $21.98Acadia Healthcare's NASDAQ:ACHC stock has fallen nearly -76% in a year, primarily due to weak 2024 results, missed revenue and EPS expectations, and a soft 2025 revenue guidance. Ongoing federal investigations into billing practices and lawsuits have further eroded investor confidence. However, it is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.42x and earnings are forecast to grow 7.07% per year. The profitable company is trading at a good value compared to other healthcare companies. Debt-to-equity is relatively low (0.64x), but legal risks (DOJ probe, lawsuits) strain margins.
The stock has entered my "major crash" simple moving average territory and there is a lot of downward / selling pressure. But, more often than not, this area (which... I caution... still extends down near $16) can often signal a temporary or longer-term bottom. Personally, this is a buy area ($16-$21) even if it turns into a short-term bounce in 2025. But I believe the overall market moves in the S&P 500, etc. will guide this stock more than anything at this point (unless more bad news about the company emerges).
One thing to note is that there are open price gaps on the daily chart near $17, $10, and $8. These gaps, which often (but not always) get closed in the lifetime of a stock, are a potential signal for further declines - at least at some point. There could be a drop near $16, then a $10-$20 bullish price increase after that, followed by more declines (trapping investors). Time will tell, but NASDAQ:ACHC is currently attractively valued. From a technical analysis standpoint, it is in a personal "buy zone", even if purely for a swing trade.
Targets:
$27.00
$33.00
$39.00
Looking to Short Bitcoin if Key Support FailsFrom a short-term perspective, the instrument is in a well-defined uptrend, so shorting at current levels doesn’t make much sense. It’s better to wait for signs of weakness — specifically, when price starts to move lower and breaks below the initial local lows.
In this case, the key zone to watch is the narrow range between 91,911 and 91,631. If price begins to break below that range, a short setup becomes valid, with the first target at 82,953–82,753. The final target is 74,565–74,456.
For now, though, price is still moving upward and could continue higher. Wait for confirmation before taking any position.
Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink“Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink. 👀💣”
📅 Daily XAUUSD Sniper Plan – April 25, 2025
Clean structure. No noise. Just logic.
🧭 MARKET CONTEXT
• Macro: No major USD catalyst. Yesterday's Unemployment Claims were neutral → price action driven by structure & liquidity.
• Sentiment: Gold remains in premium territory but failed to hold above 3355 in NY → suggesting smart money profit-taking.
• HTF Bias: Bullish (D1 trend intact, HLs hold)
• LTF Flow: Bearish intraday – CHoCH & BOS on M30-H1
• Key Event Backdrop: Powell not speaking today, but market still reflects uncertainty from recent Trump vs. Powell tensions.
📐 STRUCTURE & SMC FLOW
• M30–H1: Internal CHoCH formed after price failed to break above 3355
• Liquidity: Sweeps above 3353 and below 3312 → now hovering around internal equilibrium
• SMC Confluence: OBs, FVGs, and EMA alignment used for all entries
• FIB Zones: Discount for buys (3280–3310), Premium for sells (3385+)
🔻 SELL SCENARIOS
Sell #1 – 3385–3392
🧨 Premium retest zone + H1 OB + Gap mitigation
• SL: 3401
• TP1: 3355
• TP2: 3333
• TP3: 3306
🎯 Confluence: H1 OB, NY liquidity above, internal CHoCH
Sell #2 – 3411–3422
💣 Extended premium fill – final imbalance trap
• SL: 3432
• TP1: 3372
• TP2: 3333
• TP3: 3306
🎯 Confluence: Unmitigated FVG + fib extension 1.272 + clean wick rejection zone
🟢 BUY SCENARIOS
Buy #1 – 3333–3338
🔋 HTF OB + H4 structure demand
• SL: 3322
• TP1: 3360
• TP2: 3385
• TP3: 3410
🎯 Confluence: HTF FVG, historical bounce zone, EMA100 support
Buy #2 – 3284–3288
🧱 Sniper reentry zone from structure base
• SL: 3270
• TP1: 3312
• TP2: 3340
• TP3: 3372
🎯 Confluence: Previous sniper entry, structure HL, strong OB zone
📊 TREND RECAP
• HTF Trend: Bullish
• LTF Structure: Currently in retracement mode
• Bias: Neutral to bearish for early London, bullish only on clean 3333 reaction or deeper dip to 3284
🫂 COMMUNITY CALL
"Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink. 👀💣"
Will 3450 Hold? Or is Gold Just Getting Started? 🔄🧠
Which setup are you watching tomorrow? Let’s catch these sniper entries together – drop your bias in the comments 💬👇
TradingView's been too quiet lately – if this helped, hit that ❤️ and show some love.
Let’s grow this smart gold tribe together!
Smart plans, no hype. If you’re riding gold with logic, drop a 💡 below and let's connect!
MRVL at turning point; rapid growth; stock price set to doubleMarvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) has recently shown signs of an upward trend, buoyed by positive analyst sentiment and strategic advancements in AI and cloud computing. Despite a challenging start to 2025, with shares down approximately 50% year-to-date (markets.businessinsider.com), analysts maintain a bullish outlook. The average 12-month price target stands at $116.40, suggesting significant potential upside from current levels (StockAnalysis).
Marvell's focus on custom AI silicon and data center solutions is driving optimism. The company's Structera CXL devices have achieved interoperability with AMD and Intel platforms, enhancing performance in next-generation cloud data centers (Benzinga). Additionally, Marvell's AI business now constitutes over half of its revenue, with expectations of 60% year-over-year revenue growth driven by AI and cloud segments (Seeking Alpha).
While short-term volatility persists, these developments position Marvell as a strong contender in the semiconductor sector, with potential for sustained growth as AI and cloud computing demand accelerates.
Is XAUUSD bullish or bearish today? I'm bearish on GOLD (XAUUSD) today!
Logic: GOLD recently hit its historic high. After that retracing but not sustaining at any point just because of the big players booking profits, it's common in GOLD .
Now, GOLD is reversing, and I can see it formed a bearish flag pattern today in the 15- or 5-minute time frame, as you can see in my chart drawing. So, I'm bearish at least till the 3270 level .
Thank you
O as in OverboughtThis is unusual for me, and full disclosure, I am not personally trading this. I don't short on margin and the spreads on puts are a little too wide for my liking. So think of this as my musing on a market that I think is still overbought from last week.
I get why it has been running - yield is tantalizing in a struggling market, and monthly payouts even more so, I suspect. But I am firmly of the belief that we are headed for some pretty rough times in the economy, and retail real estate, triple net lease or not, is not where I'd want to be, personally. Their top 3 tenants are Dollar General, Walgreens, and Dollar Tree, who are all having their own struggles right now.
6 consecutive up days causing a retail-leveraged REIT to jump almost 10% when economic data is flashing recesssionary warning signals, along with pending inflationary impacts of tariffs does not help its case. So simply as a short term, overbought in a bad space call, I'm expecting NYSE:O to go lOwer soon.
I'll consider tactically adding to the short and closing when the price is lower than the average lot sales price. This might result in an individual lot ending with a loss, but an overall trade win. With shorts, I don't get hung up on that.
Feel free to disagree, and I could well be wrong. I had the same thesis about 2 months ago on AT&T and barely escaped a put trade with a profit and it got pretty ugly before I did. So remember, none of this is investment advice. Just a hot take on a stock that I think is hotter than it should be right now. Act accordingly and DYOR.