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Gold Price Analysis June 17The D1 candle shows profit-taking by the sellers, pushing the price back below 3400. In the current context, the pullback is only short-term and has not confirmed the reversal, but long-term Buy signals can still be noticed at important support zones. Today, there are many price zones that can BUY Gold, so wait for confirmation before placing an order. Gold is heading towards the first support around 3375-3373. This is also the Breakout zone. If it breaks out, Gold will go to 3343-3341 to be able to BUY (pay attention to sell break). If there is a sweep to 3343 and then bounces and closes above the 3373 breakout zone, it confirms that the uptrend will continue strongly in the near future. The next BUY support zone to pay attention to is 3322-3320 and the 3305-3303 zone. The BUY order target is always pushed further back to 3415 or 3443.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
WLD Sparks Panic Here’s Why the Worst Might Still Be AheadYello Paradisers, have you seen how #WLDUSDT just collapsed out of nowhere? After weeks of slow, grinding price action inside a dangerous ascending broadening wedge, #Worldcoin has finally snapped, and this breakdown could be the start of something much bigger. 💎We had this move on the radar well in advance, as the structure continued maturing. The wedge was perfectly defined by rising support and resistance levels, and price got smacked down with precision from the top of that range. When #WLD printed a clear Change of Character (CHOCH), breaking beneath the wedge’s lower boundary, it wasn’t noise it was a direct signal of weakening momentum and a confirmed shift in market structure toward the downside. 💎What followed was a textbook retest of the breakdown level, which now aligns with a powerful supply and resistance zone between $1.069 and $1.125. As long as the price remains trapped below this zone, the bearish momentum stays in full control. Right now, the next area we’re eyeing is $0.847, where price might see a temporary pause. But make no mistake if the selling continues, #WLD is likely heading toward $0.580, and in the most extended bearish case, we’re watching the major support base at $0.347. 💎Any invalidation of this bearish setup would require a full breakout above $1.623, but with the current market structure, that kind of reversal seems extremely unlikely without a strong macro or fundamental catalyst flipping the narrative. Trade smart, Paradisers. This setup will reward only the disciplined. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
5
Gold trading strategy June 17D1 candle shows profit taking by sellers pushing the price back below 3400. In the current context, the pullback is only short-term and has not confirmed the reversal, but long-term Buy signals can still be noticed at important support zones. Today, there are many price zones that can BUY Gold, so wait for confirmation before placing an order. Gold is heading towards the first support around 3375-3373 (this zone has just reacted 100 pips). This is also the Breakout zone. If it breaks this zone, Gold will reach 3343-3341 before it can BUY. Note that to sell break 3373 and the SELL resistance point must wait for 3415 and the daily resistance 3443-3445 If there is a sweep to 3343 and bounces and closes above the 3373 breakout zone, it confirms that the uptrend will continue strongly in the near future. The next BUY support zone to pay attention to is 3322-3320 and the 3305-3303 zone. The BUY target is always pushed further back to 3415 or to the peak around 3443. SUPPORT: 3373;3342;3322;3304 RESISTANCE: 3415;3443
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
XAU / USD ANALYSIS [Bullish Bias]Gold continues to show strong bullish momentum, supported by key technical levels and favorable market structure. Price action remains constructive above the major support zone, indicating potential for further upside. I'm closely monitoring the following levels for a high-probability long setup: Demand Zone / Support Level: Entry key level: 3375 - 3370 As long as gold holds above this support, the bias remains bullish with potential for a continuation toward higher resistance levels. A break and sustained move above the entry zone would confirm bullish strength and could trigger the next leg up. Risk management remains key waiting for clear confirmation before entering is advised. #GOLD, #FOREX , # VeloraFXReal
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VeloraFXReal
Bitcoin Strategic Interval, CME Dislocation and Macro Friction.⊢ 𝟙⟠ - BTC/USDT - Binance - (CHART: 1W) - (June 17, 2025). ⟐ Analysis Price: $106,851.31. ⊢ I. ⨀ Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval - (1W): ▦ EMA21 – ($96,818.00): ∴ The current candle closes +10.3% above the EMA21, maintaining bullish dominance over the mid-term dynamic average; ∴ This is the 17th consecutive weekly candle closing above the EMA21 since its reclaim in February 2025, forming a structurally intact uptrend; ∴ No violation or wick-close below the EMA21 has occurred since April, and the distance from price to EMA21 remains within a standard deviation of mid-trend movement. ✴ Conclusion: The trend is active and preserved. EMA21 acts as dynamic support and bullish pressure zone. A reversion would only be expected if weekly closes return below $98K with volume confirmation. ⊢ ▦ SMA200 – ($48,969.73): ∴ The 200-week simple moving average remains untouched since early 2023, never tested during the current cycle; ∴ The slope of the SMA200 is positive and gradually increasing, indicating a long-term structural trend recovery; ∴ Price stands +118% above the SMA200, a level historically associated with mid-cycle rallies or overheated continuation phases. ✴ Conclusion: The SMA200 confirms long-term bullish structure. Its current distance from price makes it irrelevant for immediate action but critical as the absolute invalidation level of the macro trend. ⊢ ▦ Ichimoku – Kumo | Tenkan | Kijun: ∴ Price is above the Kumo cloud, with Span A ($107,172.16) and Span B ($98,562.38) creating a bullish tunnel of support; ∴ The Kijun-sen rests at $95,903.19, slightly below EMA21, and aligns with the last strong horizontal range; ∴ Chikou Span is free from historical candles, confirming trend continuity under Ichimoku principles. ✴ Conclusion: All Ichimoku components are aligned bullish. Pullbacks to the Kijun around $96K would be healthy within a macro-uptrend, and only sub-cloud closes would question this formation. ⊢ ▦ Fibonacci - (Swing Low $49,000 – High $111,980): ∴ Bitcoin remains between the (0.236 Fibo - $97,116.72) and local top at $111,980, showing respect for fib-based resistance; ∴ The (0.5 Fibo - $80,490.00) has not been retested since March, confirming the range compression toward upper quadrants; ∴ Weekly price is consolidating under fib extension with decreasing body size, suggesting strength with pause. ✴ Conclusion: The Fibonacci structure confirms bullish extension phase. If $97K breaks, retracement to (0.382 Fibo - $87,921.64) is expected. Otherwise, the breakout above $112K enters full projection territory. ⊢ ▦ MACD – (Values: 1,077.98 | 5,963.81 | 4,885.82): ∴ MACD line remains above signal line for the third consecutive week, recovering from a prior bearish cross in April; ∴ The histogram has printed higher bars for four weeks, but the slope of growth is decelerating; ∴ Positive cross occurred just below the zero-line, which often results in delayed reactions or failures unless reinforced by volume. ✴ Conclusion: MACD signals a weak but persistent momentum recovery. Reaffirmation depends on histogram expansion above 1,500+ and signal spread widening. ⊢ ▦ RSI – (Close: 64.37 | MA: 57.56): ∴ The RSI is in the bullish upper quadrant, but without overbought extension, suggesting active buying without euphoria; ∴ The RSI has been above its moving average since mid-May, maintaining a healthy angle; ∴ Momentum is not diverging from price yet, but is approaching the 70 zone, historically a point of hesitation. ✴ Conclusion: RSI confirms controlled strength. Further advance without consolidation may trigger premature profit-taking. Above 70, caution increases without being bearish. ⊢ ▦ Volume - (16.97K BTC): ∴ Weekly volume is slightly above the 20-week average, marking a minor recovery in participation; ∴ There is no volume spike to validate a breakout, which is common in compressive ranges near resistance; ∴ Volume has been declining since mid-May, forming a local divergence with price highs. ✴ Conclusion: Volume profile supports current levels but does not confirm breakout potential. A rejection with strong volume will mark local exhaustion. ⊢ II. ∆ CME Technical Dislocation – BTC1! Futures: ▦ CME GAP – BTC1! – ($107,445.00): ∴ The CME Futures opened this week at $105,060.00 and closed the previous session at $107,445.00; ∴ A clear unfilled gap persists between $105,060.00 and $107,900.00, with price action hovering just above the top edge; ∴ Bitcoin has a consistent historical behavior of returning to close such gaps within a short- to mid-term range. ✴ Conclusion: The unfilled CME gap acts as a gravitational technical force. As long as price remains below $109K without volume expansion, the probability of revisiting the $105K area remains elevated. ⊢ III. ∫ On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Exchange Inflow Total - (All Exchanges): ∴ Current inflow volume remains below the 1,000 Bitcoin daily threshold, indicating no panic selling or institutional exits; ∴ This inflow level corresponds to accumulation or holding phases, rather than distribution; ∴ The pattern matches a neutral-to-positive mid-cycle environment. ✴ Conclusion: There is no structural on-chain pressure. As long as inflows remain low, risk of capitulation or distribution is minimal. ⊢ ▦ Spot Taker CVD - (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-day) – (All Exchanges): ∴ The 90-day CVD shows continued dominance of taker buys over sells, reflecting ongoing demand strength in spot markets; ∴ However, the curve is flattening, suggesting buyers are meeting resistance or fading interest; ∴ No sharp reversal in the CVD curve is detected — only saturation. ✴ Conclusion: Demand remains dominant, but the pace is decelerating. Without renewed volume, this curve may revert or plateau. ⊢ ▦ Exchange Inflow Mean - (MA7) – (All Exchanges): ∴ The 7-day moving average of exchange inflow continues to decline steadily; ∴ This metric often precedes calm phases or pre-breakout plateaus; ∴ Historical patterns show similar inflow behavior before prior volatility expansions. ✴ Conclusion: A period of silence is unfolding. Reduced mean inflow suggests price is awaiting external catalysts for movement. ⊢ ▦ Funding Rates – (Binance): ∴ Current funding rates are neutral, with slight positive bias, suggesting balanced long-short sentiment; ∴ No extreme spikes indicate absence of excessive leverage; ∴ This equilibrium typically precedes significant directional moves. ✴ Conclusion: Market is leveled. Funding neutrality reflects hesitation and prepares ground for upcoming directional choice. ⊢ IV. ⚖️ Macro–Geopolitical Axis – (Powell, Middle East & BTC/XAU): ▦ MACRO CONTEXT: ∴ Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Wednesday (June 19), with markets anticipating remarks on rate stability or future hikes; ∴ Ongoing tensions in the Middle East (Israel–Iran) elevate risk-off behavior in traditional markets; ∴ Bitcoin has triggered a rare Golden Cross vs. Gold, as noted by U.Today, signaling digital strength over legacy value. ✴ Conclusion: Macro remains the primary external catalyst. Powell’s statement will determine short-term volatility. Until then, Bitcoin floats between its technical support and CME magnetism, with gold dynamics providing long-term bullish backdrop. ⊢ ⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis! ⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⊢
by Magister_Arcanvm
2
Sell-Side Breakdown for XAUUSD (Gold) on the 15-Minute chart🔻 Sell-Side Analysis – June 17, 2025 🧠 Context & Market Structure Price rejected major resistance around 3415–3448 zone. SL Hunt zone marked at mid-levels around 3400–3408, showing manipulation. Current price: ~3397, after bouncing from the Daily Flip (support) at ~3388. --- 📉 Bearish Case Setup 1. Distribution Pattern at the Top The upper resistance zone has been tested multiple times without a breakout. Clear sign of exhaustion, with possible Smart Money Distribution. 2. Lower High Formation After breaking the short-term demand (green box), price formed a lower high near 3404–3405. Bearish market structure forming. 3. Consolidation Breakdown Likely Price is currently inside a small consolidation box (3393–3402). Failure to break and hold above 3402 = bearish continuation. Look for breakdown retests below 3393 to confirm. --- 🔻 Sell Zones Zone 1: 3402–3405 = good supply/retest area for shorts. Zone 2: 3410–3413 = high-risk re-entry (SL hunt zone retest). --- 🎯 Targets for Shorts TP1: 3388 (Daily Flip) TP2: 3373–3375 (next volume node and support block) TP3: 3365 (if full breakdown with momentum) --- 🛡️ Invalidation Clean break and hold above 3405–3410 invalidates bearish bias short term. If price reclaims SL Hunt zone and flips it, bullish continuation is likely. --- 🔍 Volume + Order Flow Notes Volume spikes around support zone hint at buyer absorption, not dominance. Bullish bounce lacked follow-through = potential sign of weak buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Siddharth_Joshi
Geopolitics and Fed policies dominate the trend of gold prices 📌 Gold news On Monday, boosted by the risk aversion of the Iran-Israel war, the gold price hit a high of 3452, but the continuity was not strong, and a series of other adjustments appeared; let's briefly sort it out: 1: Adjustment: Adjustment is normal. If the market rises, if the risk aversion does not continue to exert force, then the gold price can only return to technical adjustments. Therefore, Monday's adjustment trend and the decline trend are normal! 2: Risk aversion trend: The risk aversion trend will not be reversed for the time being! Once the war starts, it will not end easily; unless the interests of both sides are not damaged, the two sides agree to a ceasefire, but at present, the hope and probability are relatively small, so the risk aversion trend is the mainstream of the current global market; 3: The direction of the Iran-Israel war is nothing more than a few possibilities: A: The war expands, the surrounding countries stand in line, and the US and Western imperialism join the battlefield; the war expands rapidly! At the same time, Iran is forced to block the Strait of Hormuz! This is a manifestation of escalating war; B: Both sides, as well as the forces behind them, have calculated their interests, reached an agreement, and agreed to end the war conflict; this mainly depends on Iran's attitude; is it "powerful and unyielding", continuing to oppose the United States and imperialism; or is it pro-American, completely changing its identity, or changing its identity to submit to Israel and the United States; To sum up: risk aversion eased slightly on Monday, but the overall global market is still risk-averse; technical adjustments are normal trends; but don't completely ignore the importance of risk aversion and risk aversion control because of technical adjustments; in addition, the subsequent results of the Middle East war are nothing more than the above two; what determines all this is the attitude of both sides; 📊Comment Analysis Although the gold price fell below 3400 and the short-term trend changed, the general direction still remains bullish. In the future, it is still expected to hit the high point of 3500, but it is necessary to wait patiently for the bottom to stabilize before choosing the opportunity to buy the bottom. The current market is changing rapidly, and investors should adhere to the principle of following the trend and flexibly adjust their trading strategies. 💰Strategy Package Short-term gold 3383-3393 long, stop loss 3372, target 3420-3440; Short-term gold 3420-3430 short, stop loss 3435, target 3390-3370; ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
Gold Trading Strategy June 16There is not much surprise when the price gap up appeared on Monday morning there is no barrier that can stop the price of gold from increasing towards ATH. Gold has a slight adjustment in Tokyo session after the price gap up touched the round resistance zone 3450. The adjustment may extend to 3413 in European session. This is a BUY zone with the expectation that Gold will regain the ATH hook. If broken, there will be some Scalping buy zones but the risk is quite high so to be safe, wait for 3398. In the long term, 3463 acts as temporary resistance for a reaction phase before Gold returns to its all-time high. Maybe before that, 3490 will have another price reaction before reaching the peak. Resistance: 3428 (Scalping) - 3444 - 3463 - 3490 Support: 3413- 3298
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
3
GOLD- XAU-USD Hello Traders! The GOLD MARKET is on fire! 🚨🔥 XAUUSD has officially broken above the key resistance zone — this is not just a move, this could be the start of something BIG! 💥📈 Is this the golden breakout we’ve been waiting for, or just a short-lived spike? Are we heading toward the next major target, or is a pullback on the horizon? 🎯🔍 Your insights matter — comment below with your analysis and let’s decode this golden move together! Stay sharp, stay golden! ⚔️💰 #XAUUSD #GoldBreakout #ForexTraders #MarketMomentum #GoldAnalysis #TradeSmart
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
Continue to be bullish after successful adjustment of low longToday, gold opened high at 3448, and fell under pressure after touching 3452. It fell after repeatedly confirming resistance at high levels. We arranged short orders in the 3445-3450 area, successfully touched the target of 3330, and realized profit-taking. Then the market fell back to around 3409 and stabilized and rebounded. We arranged long orders and stopped profit at around 3420. Then we fell back and arranged long orders of 3385 and 3395 to take profits at 3405. Overall, gold fell slowly after opening high, and maintained sideways consolidation in the European session. The US session continued to fall due to the easing of the geopolitical situation. At present, the focus of the evening is on the support of 3390. If it does not break after the retracement, it can still go long. Pay attention to the key pressure levels of 3410 and 3422 above. The current market is still in the adjustment stage of the upward trend. After the adjustment, it is expected to continue the upward rhythm. Operation suggestion: Go long on gold when it falls back to around 3390-3392, with the target at 3410 and 3435. If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
WTI Technical Analysis – WTI (1H Chart) Structure & Momentum: WTI recently broke out of a short-term bullish structure, forming higher highs and higher lows. However, momentum appears to be weakening, with divergence showing between price action and volume (or internal strength), hinting at a potential short-term pullback. Liquidity & Reaccumulating: There’s a visible liquidity pool resting below the recent swing lows, around the $62 level, which aligns with a bullish order block or prior consolidation zone on the 1H chart. If price revisits this zone, it would likely be a liquidity grab followed by reaccumulating. ✅ Scenario Outlook: "WTI might pull back to the $62 area to clear resting liquidity and mitigate previous demand imbalances. If the level holds with strong bullish intent, we can expect a continuation toward higher levels—targeting the $67–$70 range in the coming sessions." Trade Setup Concept (SMC-style): Wait for price to sweep the $62 level. Look for a shift in market structure (CHOCH) on lower timeframes from bearish to bullish. Entry: Post-CHOCH confirmation above local high. SL: Below liquidity sweep. TP1: $66.80 TP2: $69.90 🛢️ Geopolitical Context: If Iran retaliates directly or if Strait of Hormuz tensions rise, crude could spike suddenly. But U.S. SPR releases or weak global demand data might offset rallies—watch macro data.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by ProSignalai
This Just Went Nuclear - Explosive Move!Uranium prices have surged due to several key factors: - Increased demand for nuclear energy – Many countries are expanding nuclear power to meet clean energy goals. - Geopolitical tensions – Supply disruptions from Russia and Niger have tightened the market. - Underinvestment in uranium mining – Years of low prices led to reduced production, creating a supply deficit. - Government policies – The U.S. and other nations are prioritizing domestic uranium production for energy security. - Rising uranium prices – Spot prices have climbed significantly, boosting mining stocks. We are near some major resistance and expect some profit taking to occur. Names Like NYSE:OKLO NYSE:SMR AMEX:URNM AMEX:URA NASDAQ:CEG should be on watch for a strong selloff.
AMEX:URAShort
by Trading-Capital
GOLD Gold (XAU/USD), DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Interest Rate Correlations As of June 2025, the relationships between these assets reflect a mix of traditional dynamics and evolving market forces. Below is a breakdown of their correlations and current data: 1. Gold (XAU/USD) and DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Traditional Inverse Relationship: Gold is priced in USD, so a stronger dollar (higher DXY) typically makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and lowering prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold prices. Recent Anomaly (2023–2025): Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-China trade disputes) and central bank gold purchases (notably by China and Russia) have driven simultaneous strength in gold and the dollar. For example: Gold hit a record high of $3,500/oz in April 2025 despite DXY hovering near 98.43. Central banks bought 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2024, offsetting typical dollar-driven headwinds. The inverse correlation is reasserting as Fed rate-cut expectations grow, but geopolitical risks still support gold. 2. Gold and 10-Year Treasury Yield Inverse Correlation Typically: Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Inflation Hedge Exception: When real interest rates (nominal yield - inflation) are negative or low, gold rises despite higher yields. For example: 10-year yield: 4.450% (June 2025) U.S. inflation: 3.1% (May 2025) → real rate ~1.26%, reducing gold’s appeal but not eliminating it. Current Driver: Market focus on Fed policy (potential cuts) and inflation persistence keeps gold supported even with elevated yields. 3. DXY and 10-Year Treasury Yield Positive Correlation: Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, boosting dollar demand (DXY↑). Divergence Risks: Geopolitical tensions can decouple this relationship (e.g., safe-haven dollar demand outweighs yield changes). 4. Interest Rates and Gold Fed Policy Impact: Higher rates strengthen the dollar and dampen gold demand, while rate cuts weaken the dollar and boost gold. 2025 Outlook: Fed funds rate: 4.25–4.50% (held steady in June 2025). Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand for gold and the dollar persists. Real Interest Rates: Gold’s performance hinges on whether real rates stay subdued. Central Bank Demand: Record gold purchases (1,200+ tonnes in 2024) provide structural support. Conclusion While traditional correlations between gold, DXY, and yields persist, structural shifts (central bank buying, geopolitical fragmentation) and evolving Fed policy are redefining these relationships. Gold remains bullish in the medium term. WATCH MY GREEN BAR ZONE FOR BUY.
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
5
Bitcoin Or Gold? Real Safe Haven In Middle East tension When the world shakes, where does money go— Bitcoin or gold ? You may think crypto is the ultimate safe haven… but data tells a different story. This breakdown compares digital dreams vs. physical trust —with charts, tools, and the psychology behind every move. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: Contrary to common expectations, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions, refraining from a sharp sell-off. This price behavior signals a potential shift in market psychology—something I’ll explore further in an upcoming educational post. Based on my previous analyses, I continue to anticipate an upward breakout above the $110K resistance zone in the current structure. Now , let's dive into the educational section, 📌 Gold: The Legacy of Trust For thousands of years, gold has been the go-to safe asset. In wars, inflation, sanctions, and crashes—it remains the mental anchor of value. Tangible, historic, and out of government control. 🪙 Bitcoin: Revolutionary but Unstable Bitcoin promises freedom, decentralization, and anti-inflation. But during actual crises, trust wavers. High volatility, regulatory risk, and lack of a long history make investors hesitate when fear hits hard. 🛠️ TradingView Tools That Reveal Where Smart Money Flows One reason TradingView stands out is its wide set of tools that help you track market psychology—not just price action. When it comes to analyzing the Bitcoin-vs-Gold battle during global crises (like the Iran-Israel war), these tools are essential: Correlation Coefficient: This shows how closely BTC and gold move together. In panic moments, it helps reveal where the real trust is flowing. On-Balance Volume (OBV): Key for spotting where big money is headed. If OBV on gold rises while BTC’s falls, smart money isn’t betting on crypto just yet. Fear & Greed Index Logic (DIY): While not a native TradingView tool, you can mimic it by combining volatility and volume indicators to reflect market emotion. Overlay XAUUSD and BTCUSD: Place both on a single chart with “percentage scale” enabled. You’ll see exactly which one holds up better during chaos. Marking Geo-Political Events: Tag key events (like missile strikes or sanctions) on your charts. Track how Bitcoin and gold react immediately after. 📊 How Investors React in Crisis During events like an Iran-Israel war, data shows money often flows into gold—not BTC. When panic peaks, people run toward the “known,” not the “new.” 🧠 The Illusion of Crypto as Safe Haven We want to believe BTC is the new gold. But the human mind—under threat—defaults to ancient instincts. Fear doesn’t innovate. It runs to what it knows: shiny, physical, historical gold. 💡 When Will Bitcoin Truly Compete? When the next generation fully embraces digital assets. When institutions store BTC alongside gold. When BTC no longer crashes on scary headlines—that’s when the shift becomes real. ⚠️ Lessons from War Wars reveal that markets don’t behave rationally in fear. Even if Bitcoin makes sense on paper, emotion drives flows. Right now, that flow still favors gold. 🔍 What to Watch Next If, during a future conflict, Bitcoin drops less—or even rises while gold does—you may be witnessing a turning point. Until then, keep tracking both with your TradingView setups. 🧭 Final Takeaway Gold still owns the trust game in a crisis. Bitcoin is on its way but hasn’t crossed that psychological line. If you’re a smart trader, know how to read both—and move before the herd does. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks, Mad Whale 🐋 📜Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
9
Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation. The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets) On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth. Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did. From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants. However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other. all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers! Chart White dashed line - 2008 Resistance Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily) Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP
by RobertTMFX
1
6/16/2025 3:33 AM PST - PreMarket Analysis - ChatGPTGOLD/USD (XAU/USD) 15m Chart Analysis – Forecast for Next 24 Hours Market Context Summary (as of chart time ~3:20 UTC, June 16, 2025): Price: ~$3,412 USD/oz Structure: Recent breakdown from the $3,430–$3,440 range; consolidating near $3,412 Trend: Short-term downtrend following a peak near $3,445 Volume: Increasing during breakdown, fading in current range Support Zone: $3,410, $3,402, $3,384 Resistance Zone: $3,430, $3,440+ 🔎 Technical Indicators: 1. RSI (14) Current: ~34.82 Implication: Oversold region nearing bounce zone, but not confirmed yet Watch: Break above 40-45 for early bullish divergence confirmation 2. MACD (12,26,9) Histogram showing signs of waning bearish momentum Signal line is about to cross MACD line upwards — bullish crossover potential Suggests upcoming momentum reversal or relief rally 3. Volume Profile High volume on sell-off from $3,440, but volume has since dropped Volume drop during consolidation typically precedes breakout 🧠 Price Action / Key Levels: Price is holding above key micro-support ~$3,410 Multiple historical order blocks around $3,402 and $3,384 — strong demand zones Prior resistance at $3,430 now acts as resistance again 🎯 Trade Setup (Next 24 Hours) ✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal (Higher Probability) Conditions for entry: MACD bullish crossover + RSI breaking above 45 Price reclaims and closes above ~$3,417–$3,420 on volume Entry: 📈 Buy on breakout candle above $3,420 🎯 Targets: TP1: $3,428 TP2: $3,437 🛑 SL: $3,406 (just below support zone) ❌ Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation (If bounce fails) Conditions: Rejection below $3,420 Breakdown of $3,410 support with increased selling volume Entry: 📉 Sell on confirmed candle close below $3,410 🎯 Targets: TP1: $3,402 TP2: $3,384 🛑 SL: $3,421 (above last consolidation top) 🧠 Strategic Recommendation: Favor long (buy) setup if bullish MACD crossover + RSI recovery >45 happens before NY session Watch for fakeouts during low liquidity hours (Asia session) Avoid premature entries; wait for volume confirmation Would you like this setup translated into a Pine Script alert, or want a 24h trailing risk-reward model? You said: what is the probability between scenario 1 and 2? ChatGPT said: Based on the current chart structure and technical indicators, here's the probability assessment between the two scenarios: 📊 Probability Estimate (Next 24 Hours): Scenario Probability Rationale ✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal 65% - RSI near oversold and starting to curve up MACD histogram shrinking, potential bullish crossover Price holding above short-term support ($3,410) Low-volume pullback suggests sellers are losing momentum | | ❌ Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation | 35% | - No confirmed bullish signal yet Still in a lower high/lower low pattern If $3,410 breaks, no major support until ~$3,402/$3,384 Macro resistance at $3,430 remains intact | 🧠 Explanation: Momentum indicators are hinting at a relief rally, not a full trend reversal yet. Bears had control, but are now losing momentum (fading volume, RSI flattening, MACD bottoming). Market is waiting for confirmation: A bullish breakout could trigger a wave of short covering. 🔮 Summary: If $3,410 holds and MACD crosses bullishly: Long trade has a 65% probability of hitting at least TP1 ($3,428–$3,437). But if $3,410 breaks, expect accelerated downside with 35% chance of continuation to $3,384 zone.
TVC:GOLD
by Trader604
GoldFxMinds Sniper Plan — June 17, 2025 🚀 GoldMinds Battle Plan Loaded — June 17, 2025 Good morning GoldMinds 👋 The market is again building perfect traps after CPI & PPI whipped both sides last week. Liquidity is stacking and volatility is hiding behind a quiet news calendar — exactly when the market loves to attack both sides. We stay patient, sniper-style. 🌎 Macro & Sentiment: No major data today, but liquidity still reacts after last week’s CPI & FOMC tone. DXY remains stable — gold remains capped inside premium supply zones. The real game now is liquidity manipulation — we focus on clean execution. 🔬 Structure & Bias: ✅ D1: Liquidity sweep above 3450 — sellers protecting premium. ✅ H4: Lower high distribution forming. ✅ H1: Bearish order flow starting to control. ✅ EMAs 5/21/50: compressed bearish. ✅ RSI: showing divergence on intraday. Bias: Tactical Bearish — under 3460 we remain sellers on sweeps. Liquidity hunts both ways but premium remains the trap zone. 🎯 Sniper Zones 🔻 SELL ZONES: 3405 – 3410 → early pullback rejection zone 3435 – 3445 → main OB liquidity sweep 3452 – 3460 → extreme premium trap zone 🔻 BUY ZONES: 3365 – 3380 → golden zone buy (perfect fibo confluence) 3335 – 3345 → deep flush exhaustion buy 🔄 Tactical Scenarios Sell spikes into premium → M15 rejection → target 3380 first. If flushed into golden zone → watch M15 confirmation → target 3405. If deep flush into 3335 → exhaustion buy setups only. 💡 Tactical Notes No chasing — liquidity first, reaction second. News absence = perfect condition for engineered liquidity sweeps. Stay sniper. Only act when structure confirms. 🔥 If this sniper battle plan helps you prepare, smash the 🚀, drop your bias in comments & hit FOLLOW to support real structure-based trading. Let’s bring back real value content to TradingView. GoldFxMinds 🧠✨
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
10