Fundamental Analysis
Eur/Usd 16-Apr 2025EUR/USD remains supported, largely due to continued USD softness, with the Dollar Index (DXY) currently holding below the 100 mark.
Potential scenarios to monitor include:
• A move towards the 1.148 area, where a pause or pullback could lead to a return toward the 1.12 region.
• A confirmed break and retest of the 1.15 level may suggest increased momentum toward the 1.165 area.
• A sustained move below 1.12 could open the way toward 1.114, where renewed interest may begin to emerge.
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EUR/JPY - Positive uptrend formulating!Hi guys please find below our analysis over EUR/JPY
1. Technical Momentum
EUR/JPY has recently broken above key resistance levels, suggesting bullish momentum. The pair is trending above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a signal of continued strength. RSI levels remain in bullish territory without being overbought, indicating room for further upside.
2. Diverging Monetary Policy
The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious on policy easing despite market expectations, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its ultra-loose stance with only minimal steps toward normalization. This policy divergence has been a significant driver for EUR/JPY strength and is likely to persist in the near term.
The BoJ’s slow exit from yield curve control and a historically dovish posture mean the yen remains weak relative to the euro, which benefits from steady economic resilience in the eurozone.
3. Improving Risk Sentiment
Global equity markets have been rebounding, and risk sentiment is turning positive. In such environments, the yen—traditionally a safe-haven currency—tends to weaken as investors move capital toward higher-yielding assets like the euro.
4. Economic Stability in the Eurozone
Recent Eurozone data, particularly out of Germany and France, has surprised to the upside. PMI figures and business confidence indices are beginning to recover, suggesting that the worst of the economic slowdown may be behind. This improves investor sentiment toward the euro.
Conclusion - Due to the positive Fundamental news coming from the Eurozone gives us a positive indication to showcase growth potential in this pair. From a technical overview, the analysis is supported by the MACD and RSI giving positive indication of a Ascending Channel formulating.
📌 Trade Plan
📈 Entry: 162.115
✅ Target 163.150
❌ SL: 161.400
Gold continues to surge to new highs! Market analysis referenceToday's Asian session has directly pulled up from yesterday's multiple rebound highs near 3230. The current relative low has risen by nearly 80 points, and there is a trend of further hitting new highs. Once it breaks the high again, it will continue to hit the 3330-50 line. We have analyzed before that the next big target of the weekly pattern and segmentation cycle is to look at 3400. It is estimated that it will reach it after a few waves of pull-ups. The weekly line last week's big positive also needs to rise inertia this week. The current focus of the day is still on falling back to do more.
After the Asian session gold price rose sharply, the European session trend is crucial. If the European session maintains a small sideways fluctuation, then the US session is likely to launch an upward attack again. What needs to be focused on now is the extent of the bulls' callback repair. In view of the current volatile market, the decline of tens of dollars may just be a normal adjustment of the bulls, not a trend reversal. The current support below can refer to the afternoon low of 3280, which can also be used as an important reference for European session operations. The key watershed below may be at the previous top and bottom conversion position of 3245, while the upper key pressure is focused on the 3330-3350 line. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is recommended to be long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 3330-3350 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3275-3280 line of support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Gold operation strategy reference: Strategy 1: Short gold rebounds near 3330-3340, target near 3305-3290, and look at the 3280 line if it breaks.
Strategy 2: Long gold pullback near 3275-3285, target near 3310-3330, and look at the 3350 line if it breaks.
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
EUR/USD is trading in positive territory around 1.1285 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading near a three-year low against the euro (EUR) as trade tensions persist.
On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the Trump administration's tariff policy was a major shock to the US economy that could force the central bank to cut rates to prevent a recession even if inflation remains high. At the same time, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said the Fed should hold rates until there is more clarity.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday amid growing recession fears related to US tariffs.Analysts believe the ECB may cut all three key interest rates at its April meeting on Thursday. The ECB cut interest rates for the second consecutive time in March, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5 per cent. Further cuts would bring the rate down to 2.25%.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080
The Day Ahead
Key Economic Data Releases
🇺🇸 U.S.
• March Retail Sales – Consumer spending trend, high market impact.
• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization – Signals strength of the manufacturing sector.
• April NY Fed Services Index – Regional business activity snapshot.
• NAHB Housing Market Index – Homebuilder sentiment.
• Feb Business Inventories – Impacts GDP revisions.
• Total Net TIC Flows – Foreign capital flows into U.S. assets.
🇨🇳 China
• Q1 GDP – Key for global growth outlook.
• March Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Home Prices, Property Investment – Domestic demand & real estate health.
🇬🇧 UK
• March CPI & RPI, Feb House Price Index – Inflation indicators ahead of BoE moves.
🇯🇵 Japan
• Feb Core Machine Orders – Business capex proxy.
🇮🇹 Italy / 🇪🇺 Eurozone
• Feb Current Account Balances – External demand & capital flow indicators.
🇳🇿 New Zealand
• Q1 CPI – Inflation print crucial for RBNZ rate expectations.
________________________________________
Central Banks
• 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Watch for policy tone amid inflation shifts.
• 🇺🇸 Fed Speakers: Powell, Cook, Hammack – Any hints on rate cuts or economic outlook closely watched.
________________________________________
Earnings to Watch
• Tech & Industrials: ASML, Sandvik, Sartorius
• Healthcare: Abbott Laboratories
• Transport & Real Estate: Prologis, CSX
• Financials: US Bancorp, Nordea
• Consumer: Heineken
• Materials: Alcoa
High-impact guidance or surprises could trigger sector moves.
________________________________________
Bond Auctions
• 🇺🇸 US 20-Year Bond Auction – Monitor for demand; impacts yields and USD.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Supply and Demand by Thapelo Consolidation and Expansion
The markets either do one of two things: Price either consolidates or expands.
Consolidation: a period in the market where price is moving calm which moves in a range known as the dealing range. We will be able to identify a clear high and low to this range.
You have probably heard of the term range bound, ranging, or consolidating. This means that price is typically staying in one area, and just moving sideways, rather than up or down.
The range can be tight (meaning a spread of only a few pounds), or the range can be loose (meaning a spread of hundreds of thousands of pounds from range high to low. This partly will come down to the timeframe implemented.
Expansion: a period in the market where price is moving aggressively in one direction or the other. We will see an impulsive move to the upside, or an impulsive move to the downside, where price will give us large candle bodies or wicks. This is known as expansion.
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Monthly Candle Close numbers & sequence
This is the TOTAL version of the Bitcoin chart I post every month
It is not always the same but, on average, it has the same Candle colour but not always the same Size, due to influences of ALT coins.
But what I want to draw your attention to is where that arrow is pointing.
We have just had a RED Febuary and March candle close.
This has only ever happened ONCE before.
Late 2019 - Early 2020
Infact, in 2019 we had Dec RED, Jan GREEN, Feb RED, March RED
And currently we have Dec RED, Jan GREEN, Feb RED, March RED,
The 2020 March RED was the Covid dive, that was swiftly recovered
Currently we have the "Trump Tariff Dive"
In so many ways, we are repeating the early 2020 Sequence in the TOTAL Cap
The Bitcoin Chart however, seems to be repeating the 2017 Sequence.
In 2020, TOTAL market Ca [pApril and May both closed GREEN. while en-route to a New ATH in March 2021.
A New cycle ATH in early 2026 is entirely possible though it would be Very Much out of sequence.
Things are different in many way with Crypto now...We are under new Regimes..
Discount Nothing
Interesting days indeed
Inflation in the UK Has FallenInflation in the UK Has Fallen
According to Forex Factory, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in below expectations: while analysts had forecast a decline to 2.7% year-on-year from the previous 2.8%, the actual CPI figure was 2.6%.
Following the release of this news, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose to 1.3280 – the highest level in seven months.
On the one hand, falling inflation is a sign of a healthy economy and a relief for the Bank of England, especially considering that CPI stood in double digits just two years ago. As a result, analysts may now predict that interest rates could be cut at the meeting scheduled for 8 May.
On the other hand, demand for the dollar remains volatile due to Trump’s tariff policies, fears of a US recession, and a wave of bond sell-offs.
Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD Chart
In just one week, the pound-to-dollar rate has risen by approximately 4.2%, with the RSI indicator now hovering near extreme overbought levels. Furthermore, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which has been in play since the beginning of 2025.
In such conditions, a correction (with a bearish breakout of the ascending trendline, shown in blue) appears a logical development. However, a key factor in sustaining the current trend of dollar weakness could be the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled for today at 20:30 GMT+3.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Netflix (NFLX) Share Price Jumps Nearly 5%Netflix (NFLX) Share Price Jumps Nearly 5%
According to the charts, Netflix (NFLX) shares rose to their highest level since early April, while the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declined by approximately 0.2% yesterday.
Since the beginning of 2025, NFLX’s share price has increased by more than 8%, showing resilience in a volatile stock market that remains sensitive to the escalation of the global trade war.
Why Is Netflix (NFLX) Gaining in Value?
The strong performance may be attributed to three key factors:
Jason Helfstein, an analyst at financial holding company Oppenheimer, believes the company likely faces “limited” risks. Netflix does not sell tradeable goods subject to tariffs and could even benefit from a potential economic downturn if consumers opt to stay home more often.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Netflix has set a target of reaching a market capitalisation of $1 trillion and doubling its revenue to $39 billion by 2030.
Positive sentiment ahead of the earnings report – yes, Netflix is one of the first to release its quarterly results.
Technical Analysis of NFLX Share Chart
The share price is moving within an upward channel (shown in blue), with strong support in 2025 provided by both the lower boundary of the channel and the $840 level – a level originating from the powerful rally at the end of 2024.
On the other hand, the price has now approached the psychological $1000 level. It is possible that, in light of the upcoming earnings release (scheduled for tomorrow, 17 April), the bulls may attempt a breakout and aim to secure a foothold in the upper half of the channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Daily Analysis: 16-04-2025Spot gold ended yesterday’s trading with a 0.6% increase, closing at 3231, and continued its upward momentum this morning, reaching a new all-time high at 3292. As the U.S. imposed a ban on the sale of Nvidia chips to China, global markets are seeing declines this morning. Additionally, Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on precious metals has intensified the trade war, further boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
If the 3300 level is breached, the next target may be around 3330. On the downside, the levels of 3245 and 3227 serve as important technical support areas.
GOLD soars over $50, heading for new ATHSpot OANDA:XAUUSD surged, with an intraday gain of more than $50, now trading around $3,281/oz to fresh all-time highs.
OANDA:XAUUSD hit a record high as the Trump administration launched investigations that could widen the trade war, boosting demand for safe-haven assets, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday launched an investigation into the need to impose tariffs on critical minerals, the latest move in the widening trade war.
According to a White House fact sheet, the executive order signed by Trump on Tuesday directs the secretary of commerce to initiate a Section 232 investigation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to “assess the impact of imports of these materials on the security and resilience of the United States.”
On Wednesday, gold traders will focus on U.S. retail sales data for March, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, primarily Chairman Jerome Powell.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After gaining support from the 3,200USD price level, which is an important support for readers to pay attention to in the weekly publication, gold has skyrocketed towards the weekly target level of 3,295USD.
Currently, there is no resistance that can prevent the gold price from heading towards 3,295USD, and the uptrend is still absolutely dominant on the technical chart.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index is just approaching the overbought zone and is not giving any signal of a possible correction in the short term. Therefore, in terms of momentum, gold can still continue to increase in price.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will be noticed again at the following positions.
Support: 3,245 – 3,223 – 3,200 USD
Resistance: 3,295 – 3,300 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3315 - 3313⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3319
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3301
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3223 - 3225⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3219
→Take Profit 1 3231
↨
→Take Profit 2 3237
Gold Hits New ATH Amid Escalating US–China Tensions📌 Gold Hits New ATH Amid Escalating US–China Tensions: How Far Can It Go? 🧨📈
Gold has reached another all-time high (ATH) as geopolitical tensions between the United States and China intensify. Markets have become incredibly sensitive, reacting sharply to political rhetoric and economic policy shifts from the world’s most powerful leaders.
As investors grow increasingly uneasy, gold continues to serve its role as a safe haven — but the real question now isn't whether gold will rise, but rather: how high can it go?
🌍 Geopolitical Sensitivity at its Peak
A single tariff threat or retaliation can trigger gold to surge by $30–$50.
Conversely, a pause in policy or a diplomatic “cool down” can cause price to drop hundreds of points.
In this environment, political narratives are driving markets more than technical setups.
This is one of those rare moments where fundamentals and news flow completely overshadow traditional chart signals. Even textbook candle confirmations are losing reliability — clean bullish closures are often followed by equally strong bearish rejections.
📊 Key Levels to Watch
Support Zones:
3,280 / 3,268 / 3,258 / 3,240 / 3,230
Resistance Zones:
3,292 / 3,302 / 3,310/ 3330
⚙️ Trading Zones
🔽 Sell Zone:
Entry: 3,330 – 3,332
SL: 3,336
TP: 3,325 → 3,320 → 3,315 → 3,310 → 3,300
📈 Buy Zone #1:
Entry: 3,270 – 3,268
SL: 3,264
TP: 3,274 → 3,278 → 3,282 → 3,286 → 3,290 → 3,300
📈 Buy Zone #2:
Entry: 3,240 – 3,238
SL: 3,234
TP: 3,245 → 3,250 → 3,255 → 3,260 → 3,264 → 3,268 → 3,274 → 3,280 → OPEN
⚠️ Final Thoughts & Risk Advisory
With geopolitical tensions rising and volatility surging, trading gold requires extra caution. Avoid chasing momentum blindly — even strong confirmations can flip without warning.
This is a market driven by emotions, news headlines, and global uncertainty, not just technicals. Always stick to your trading plan, and more importantly: respect your SL/TP at all times.
💬 How are you approaching gold in this macro environment? Share your views below – are you holding long or fading the rallies? 👇👇👇
Gold hits record high again! Intraday gold trading analysisFundamentally, although risk sentiment improved at the beginning of this week, Trump's policy changes caused gold prices to fluctuate and adjust, but due to the lack of obvious and sustained negative prospects and the uncertainty in the market, gold prices continued to be stabilized by safe-haven demand and strengthened upward. In addition, last week's inflation data was lower than market expectations, which strengthened the prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut. In addition, the monthly chart of the US dollar index has gone out of the 2-year top divergence, suggesting that there is a large and sustained decline in the future market, as well as increased policy uncertainty, which will also provide long-term support for gold prices. Moreover, although the market also expects that tariff policies may push up inflation in the future, US consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in April, and 12-month inflation expectations rose to the highest level since 1981, but this will also enhance gold's anti-inflation appeal and push up safe-haven demand. It is also good for gold prices. Analysts specifically reminded that market liquidity may decline before the Good Friday holiday, and any sudden policy changes may trigger sharp fluctuations. Traders are waiting for the next major fundamental development to drive the gold market, but the technical chart is still bullish. There is still safe-haven demand in the market. Gold is a safe-haven asset in times of political and financial uncertainty. The dollar index was at a nearly three-year low on Tuesday, making gold relatively cheap for buyers holding foreign currencies. Investors are waiting for a speech by Fed Chairman Powell scheduled for Wednesday to look for clues related to interest rates. During the day, attention will be paid to data such as the U.S. retail sales monthly rate in March, the U.S. industrial output monthly rate in March, the U.S. NAHB housing market index in April, and the U.S. commercial inventory monthly rate in February. Although the retail data is expected to be bearish for gold prices, the subsequent overall data is bullish for gold prices. Therefore, the steady trend is still either volatile or continues to rebound and strengthen, and the operation is still biased towards low-multiple bullish.
Analysis of gold market trend:
Technical analysis of gold: Yesterday, the price of gold always fluctuated in the range of 3210 to 3233. At the opening of today, the price of gold broke through the fluctuation range in one fell swoop and showed an accelerated upward trend. So far, it has successfully refreshed the historical high and reached the 3285 line. Gold opened for risk aversion and directly broke through the new high. The short-term adjustment ended and finally completed the adjustment in a fluctuating manner. This kind of strong bullish market with a breakthrough will basically not have a big decline. Since gold has chosen to break upward, the decline of gold now is an opportunity to go long. The first thing to pay attention to now is the top and bottom conversion position of the support line 3245 below!
For intraday short-term trading, the first thing to pay attention to is the support strength near 3245. This position was the previous high point, and pay attention to its top and bottom conversion effect. Secondly, the support level near 3232 should not be ignored. This is the high point of yesterday's fluctuation range. Today's opening price broke through this position and accelerated upward. The top and bottom conversion support role of this position during the decline is worth paying attention to. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn upward. If the 1-hour moving average continues to diverge upward, the bulls will continue to exert their strength. After gold breaks through 3245, 3245 has formed a short-term support. Go long on dips when it falls back to 3245. The strength of a wave of gold is still there at that time. So after the surge, you must wait patiently for adjustments and continue to go long. Go long when it falls back to around 3248. It is particularly important to point out that the low point of 3211 during the US trading session yesterday is the key support level for the short-term market trend. Once the price effectively falls below this position, it is necessary to be alert that the market may launch a substantial adjustment. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is to go long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3285-3290 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3245-3240 line of support. Friends must keep up with the pace.
Gold operation strategy reference: Strategy 1: Short gold when it rebounds around 3280-3290, target around 3255-3250, and look at 3245 if it breaks.
Strategy 2: Long gold when it pulls back around 3245-3250, target around 3260-3275, and look at 3290 if it breaks.
Is Sugar the New 'Dr. Copper'? What Mean for the S&P 500?Sugar isn’t just the sweet powder we add to coffee. It’s a global commodity whose price swings reveal surprising truths about the world economy. With sugar prices now hovering near the 17.5–17.7 per pound support level for the sixth time since 2022, it’s time to ask: What story are these numbers telling us?
Sugar’s History: Peaks and Valleys
Sugar has always been a fickle player in commodity markets. Its price has soared above $20 per pound due to droughts or poor harvests, only to crash when supply outstrips demand. But today’s figures are particularly troubling.
Facts:
In recent months, sugar prices have not only approached multi-year lows but remain stagnant.
Low prices signal weak demand. And where there’s no demand, there’s no production growth.
But let’s zoom out: If sugar is losing its appeal, could this be a sign of slowing economic activity? If you think this is speculative, consider real-world data.
“Dr. Copper” vs. “Dr. Sugar”
We all know copper is the economy’s barometer, correlating with industrial production, construction, and tech innovation. But why isn’t sugar part of the conversation? 🍬
Why Sugar Matters:
The Confectionery Industry: Sugar is a cornerstone of baked goods, candies, and everyday staples. A drop in consumption could reflect shrinking consumer purchasing power.
Global Ubiquity: Unlike copper, sugar is used everywhere—from developing economies to wealthy nations. Its demand mirrors economic sentiment and living standards.
The U.S. Economic Outlook: Alarming Signals
Recent U.S. economic indicators paint a grim picture:
Rising Unemployment: The U.S. unemployment rate hit 4.1% in Feb 2025 (up from 3.9% a year prior), signaling job losses in key sectors.
Slowing GDP Growth: expanded by 2.8% in 2024, little-changed from the 2.9% growth recorded in the previous year- below analysts’ expectations.
Inflation “Cooling”: While inflation dipped to 2.4% in March, falling commodity prices (like sugar) may hint at deflationary pressures.
What “Dr. Sugar” Reveals
Connecting the dots—low sugar prices, slowing production, rising unemployment, and weak GDP growth—paints a clear picture: The U.S. (and global) economy is at a crossroads.
Key Takeaways:
Falling sugar prices may signal early-stage declines in consumer demand.
Deflationary trends could threaten the S&P 500 as companies face shrinking revenues and margins.
Given current data, the risk of a recession within months remains high.
How to Use Sugar as an Economic Indicator
To track economic health:
Monitor Exchange Prices: Sudden sugar price drops may foreshadow economic slowdowns.
Compare with Other Staples: Track correlations with wheat, corn, and other food commodities to gauge consumer behavior shifts.
Watch Producers: Food industry giants often react first to demand changes. Study their earnings reports.
Conclusion: A Sweet Indicator of Bitter Times?
Sugar is more than a raw material—it’s a mirror reflecting economic sentiment. Today, with prices near historic lows and U.S. economic data flashing warning signs, we must ask: Are we ready for a potential recession?
I believe “Dr. Sugar” deserves more attention. What’s your take? Join the discussion and share your thoughts! 💬
