US index futures and Apple tumble on Trump warningUS index futures and Apple shares tumbled in premarket as Trump warned the company of 25% tariffs if manufacturing of iPhones is not moved to the United States.
This is what Trump posted on social media:
"I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else. If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!"
Let's see if the recent stall in the rally will now turn into more than just a pause.
The other big concerns remains over US Treasuries and rising long term bond yields. Long-dated US Treasuries managed to claw back some of their recent losses yesterday and that helped the markets a little. But if the bond market selling resumes then yields will remain elevated and pressurize all sorts of risk assets. Without a fundamental shift in US fiscal policy, the implications of rising US borrowing costs and widening fiscal deficits means the US is on an unstable fiscal policy path, which could lead to heighten market volatility.
By Fawad Razaqzada
Fundamental Analysis
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EURUSD Under Pressure After Weak Eurozone PMIsEurozone PMIs disappointed, and EURUSD is feeling the negative pressure as a result. After breaking above 1.1275, EURUSD is now trading within the 1.1275–1.1375 range. Despite the weak PMI, shaky U.S. bond markets and a stronger Japanese yen are contributing to a weaker dollar, which is offering some support to EURUSD.
The Eurozone composite PMI fell to 49.5 from 50.4, missing expectations of a rise to 50.6. After just four months above 50, the drop back into contraction territory highlights that the Eurozone remains far from recovery. On a positive note, the manufacturing component is starting to show signs of improvement.
Following the data and the news that the "big, beautiful bill" passed in the U.S. House, EURUSD is trying to hold the former resistance at 1.1275, which is now acting as support. If this level fails, the next downside target would be 1.1215.
On the upside, 1.1375 and 1.1425 remain key resistance levels. While 1.1425 holds greater long-term significance, 1.1375 may cap gains for the remainder of the week.
GBP/USD Firms as UK Data Performs WellGBP/USD edged up by 0.25% in Friday’s Asian session, nearing 1.3450, after upbeat UK retail sales and consumer confidence data lifted sentiment. The GfK index rose to -20 in May, beating forecasts, while April retail sales surprised to the upside.
However, PMI data showed divergence as manufacturing fell to 45.1 (vs. 46.0 expected), while services ticked up to 50.2 from 49.0.
The pound also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar as Treasury yields retreated from 19-month highs. Trump’s budget bill, which includes tax breaks on tips and U.S.-made car loans, passed narrowly and is projected to add $3.8 billion to the deficit.
Resistance is at 1.3470, followed by 1.3550 and 1.3700. Key support lies at 1.3250, then 1.3150 and 1.3000.
GBPUSDUK 10-Year Gilt Yield
The UK 10-year gilt yield is approximately 4.73% to 4.77%, recently hitting its highest level since April 2025.
This rise is driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data, with April CPI at 3.5% year-on-year, above forecasts, and core inflation at 3.8%.
Market expectations for Bank of England rate cuts have been scaled back significantly, with only about 34 basis points of cuts priced in for 2025, down from earlier expectations of two cuts.
The yield has risen from around 4.11% a year ago to near 4.76% now, reflecting tightening monetary conditions and inflation concerns.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
While the exact current US 10-year Treasury yield was not provided in the search results, as of recent data in 2025, it generally trades around 4.5% to 4.6%. This is slightly lower than the UK 10-year gilt yield, indicating a positive interest rate differential in favor of GBP over USD.
Interest Rate Differential (GBPUSD)
With UK 10-year gilt yields near 4.75% and US 10-year Treasury yields around 4.5%, the interest rate differential is roughly +0.25% in favor of GBP.
This differential supports GBP strength against USD, as higher yields attract capital inflows into GBP-denominated assets.
Summary Table
Country 10-Year Bond Yield (%)
United Kingdom ~4.75
United States ~4.50
Interest Rate Differential (GBP - USD) ~+0.25%
Implications for GBPUSD
The higher UK bond yields relative to US yields provide a yield advantage for GBP, which tends to support GBPUSD appreciation.
However, market participants also weigh other factors such as economic growth prospects, central bank policy outlooks, and geopolitical risks.
The reduced expectation of BoE rate cuts and persistent inflation underpin gilt yields and GBP strength.
In conclusion:
As of May 23, 2025, the UK 10-year gilt yield at about 4.75% versus the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.5% creates a modest positive interest rate differential favoring GBPUSD, supporting the British pound against the US dollar in the current market environment.
IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP?GBPUSD OUTLOOK – IS THE BULLISH CHANNEL NEARING EXHAUSTION OR JUST GEARING UP?
📊 Macro Overview:
The USD continues to soften slightly as markets begin pricing in a potential rate cut by the Fed later in Q3. Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) is holding firm, supported by stronger-than-expected UK macroeconomic data—particularly retail sales and inflation figures.
However, UK fiscal concerns remain a headwind, and GBPUSD is highly sensitive to upcoming U.S. data—especially Core PCE and employment figures this week.
📉 Technical Analysis:
On the 1H chart, GBPUSD is moving within a broad ascending channel and is now approaching the upper resistance trendline at 1.3555 – a key zone that could trigger short-term profit-taking.
EMAs 13 and 34 are still in bullish alignment, supporting ongoing momentum.
Despite the bullish setup, current candle structure suggests a potential pullback to the 1.3448 support zone before a continuation higher—if buyers regain control.
🔑 Key Price Levels:
Resistance Zones:
🔸 1.3555 – Channel top resistance
🔸 1.3586 – Extended resistance zone
Support Zones:
🔹 1.3448 – Technical and Fibo confluence
🔹 1.3398 – Major structure support in case of breakdown
🛠️ Trade Scenarios:
✅ Scenario 1: BUY on retracement
Entry: 1.3448 (watch for bullish confirmation on H1)
Stop Loss: 1.3394
Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3555 → 1.3585
✅ Scenario 2: SELL scalp from resistance
Entry: 1.3555
Stop Loss: 1.3588
Take Profit: 1.3500 → 1.3460
🧠 Final Thoughts:
GBPUSD remains bullish in structure but is testing key resistance levels. A clean pullback to the 1.3448 region may provide a strong buying opportunity if confirmed by price action. If this level breaks, bearish divergence could kick in and push the pair back to deeper support zones. Stay alert for high-impact economic releases and trade with solid risk management!
FILECOIN - A less risky bet to make $$$FILUSD shows to be a good bet for the below reasons.
a. All time low reached on 07th Apr 2025 and will support the price.
b. Started showing Higher High and Higher Low on daily charts.
c. It is still the #1 decentralised storage network.
d. A huge potential for upside movement with current marketcap of $2B when compared to $12B at all time high.
e. Organisation adoption is significant. For example - The Internet Archive, a non-profit digital library, uses Filecoin for archival data storage (1000TiB). OpenSea, an NFT marketplace, uses it for NFT storage. Shoah project Starling Labs, an academic research lab, uses it for archival data (6000TiB)
Gold Bulls Taking a Breather?Gold has been in an overall uptrend since late January, steadily climbing with strong bullish momentum. After peaking around $3,440 in early April, price pulled back and found support near $3,171, bouncing from that level and now approaching resistance around $3,300.
Recently, price has shown signs of recovery, but the move still hasn’t broken the downtrend from the previous highs. The current area near $3,300–$3,365 is critical. If Gold can break and hold above this zone, it may retest the $3,440 high. But if price gets rejected again, a pullback toward $3,171 or even $2,972 is possible.
Technical indicators are sending mixed signals. The RSI is around 57, showing moderate bullish strength, but not overbought. However, the Stochastic is in overbought territory with a bearish crossover forming, which could mean a short-term dip is coming. Gold is still trading above all major moving averages, which supports a longer-term bullish outlook.
The bigger picture favors bulls, especially because of recent economic and geopolitical news. The U.S. Dollar has weakened after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating and concerns grew over a massive new tax-cut bill. Tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, have also driven safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, traders are betting on potential rate cuts later in 2025, which tends to boost Gold.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: $3,300 and $3,440
Support: $3,171 and $2,972
Bias Summary:
Upward Bias: Weak USD, rising geopolitical risk, safe-haven demand, Fed rate cut expectations, price above major moving averages, aggressive central bank buying
Neutral Bias: RSI mid-range, price near resistance
Downward Bias: Stochastic overbought with bearish crossover, potential lower high formation, hidden bearish divergence.
Overall Bias: Bullish Long-term, Bearish potential short term – Fundamentals support further upside, but caution is needed near resistance for retracements.
GOLD GOLD ,POSSIBLE BREAK OF 3335 WILL CHALLENGE 3357 AND 3374-3370 SELL ZONES ,the dxy is on downward spiral looking for sustained support structure ,until then gold will be looking for buy direction.
on technical break out of 4hr demand ascending trendline will be a sell confirmation on retest which will be looking at 3300 and below.
Safe Entry ZoneStock heading South after recent up movement now stocks may Re-Test the green zone 1h.
and always Wait for buy signal after confirmation.
Note: "buy signal after confirmation" Means that:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
Note: at Take Profit Always watch out for any selling pressure to exist your position and secure profit.
GBP/USD - Triangle Breakout (23.05.2025)The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.3502
2nd Resistance – 1.3534
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Digital gold breaks records: Bitcoin broke through the $111,000 On May 22, 2025, Bitcoin (#BTCUSD) reached a new all-time high, surpassing the $111,000 mark. Notably, this record was set on the day marking the 15th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day - a symbolic date commemorating the first real-world purchase made with #BTCUSD in 2010.
Several major factors have contributed to the recent rise of Bitcoin:
Institutional Investment : The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs by BlackRock, Fidelity, and others has opened the door for large-scale investors to access #BTCUSD, boosting both liquidity and demand.
Regulatory Clarity : The adoption of clear cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S. and the EU has increased trust in digital assets and attracted more conservative capital.
Banking Integration : Support for #BTCUSD by apps like PayPal, Revolut, and major banks has simplified access for millions of users and expanded its real-world usage.
Macroeconomic Instability : Inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening of fiat currencies have strengthened demand for #BTCUSD as "digital gold" and a means of capital preservation.
Halving and Technological Progress : The reduction in BTC issuance and the ongoing development of the Lightning Network are reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity and enhancing its fundamental value.
Surpassing such a significant price level has reinforced #BTCUSD’s position as one of the key assets in today’s financial markets, confirming its status as "digital gold." The rally has sparked a wave of optimism and renewed activity on crypto exchanges, while also drawing increased interest in digital assets from the broader public.
FreshForex analysts share the view that #BTCUSD still holds significant growth potential. In our assessment, the breakout above $111,000 in May signals a continuing upward trend and the possibility of further gains, driven by growing institutional interest.