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Fundamental Analysis

#US30 – Bearish Breakdown from Rectangle Pattern | 1D AnalysisThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has completed a breakdown from a rectangle consolidation pattern, signaling a potential bearish continuation. The index is currently trading around 41,790, with downside momentum increasing. Technical Analysis: Rectangle Pattern Breakout – Bearish continuation after range-bound movement Double Top Formation – Confirmed rejection near 45,000 resistance Projected Target: 38,000 (as per the pattern breakdown) Immediate Resistance: 42,000 - 43,200 Fundamental Outlook: Market sentiment affected by interest rate policy & economic uncertainty Weak earnings reports and recession fears could add further downside pressure If DJIA remains below resistance, we could see further declines toward 38,000. However, a break back above 43,200 could invalidate the bearish setup. Watch for volume confirmation and macroeconomic developments!
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by Gold_Traders_Team
Using Micro Soybean Futures to Finetune Trading StrategiesCBOT: Micro Soybean Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MZS1! ) Shipping industry news recently reported that 30 U.S. soybean ships (about 2 million tons) are currently heading to China, nearly half of which will arrive after April 12th, when China's 10% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans will take effect. How big are the tariffs? Let’s say a cargo of soybeans, or 65,000 tons, is sent to China. Assuming the trade is $10 per bushel, given 36.74 bushels per ton, total cargo value is $23.88 million. Upon arriving in China, you owe a new tax bill for $2.39 million! According to people familiar with the matter, many cargoes are for China Grain Reserves, which may be exempted from tariffs. Soybean cargoes loaded before March 12th are eligible for a one-month grace period. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 20th showed that the stock of unsold agricultural products in China was 1.22 million tons. Any sign of order cancellation will help us assess the real impact of tariffs. In anticipation of the tariffs, China rushes to buy U.S. soybeans in the past two months. In January and February, China bought 9.13 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S., up 84% year-over-year. I expect the buying will vanish by the second quarter, given new crop arriving from Brazil at much lower prices without the tariffs imposed by China. China relies heavily on imported soybeans to crush into soybean oil for cooking use and soybean meal, a key ingredient in animal feed. The oversupply of soybeans pushes the downstream soybean meal market to crash. According to the statistics of China Feed Industry Information, soybean meals spot market prices tumbled more than 600 yuan per ton to 3,180 since February, nearly a 20% drop. Top feed processing companies, including New Hope, Haida, and Dabeinong, have each announced price cuts ranging from 50 to 300 yuan per ton for their chicken feed and hog feed products. With lower overall demand, and tariffs making South American soybeans more competitive, U.S. soybeans face a shrinking export market. On my March 17th commentary “Soybeans: Déjà vu all over again”, I expressed a bearish view on CBOT Soybean Futures and discussed the possibility of $8 beans. Trading with Micro Soybean Futures On February 24th, CME Group launched a suite of micro-size agricultural futures contracts, including Micro Corn (MZC) futures, Micro Wheat (MZW) futures, Micro Soybean (MZS) futures, Micro Soybean Meal (MZM) futures and Micro Soybean Oil (MZL) futures. The contract size of the micro soybean futures (MZS) is 500 bushels, or just 1/10 of the benchmark standard soybean futures (ZS). The minimum margin is $200 for the front futures month, and it gets smaller further out. For instance, the margins for May, July, August, September and November are $200, $190, $180, $170, and $165, respectively. The smaller capital requirement makes it easier for traders to express an opinion ahead of the release of a USDA report or anticipate the impact of tariffs and retaliation. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of March 25th, CBOT soybean futures have total open interest of 853,368 contracts, up 5% in two weeks. • Managed Money has 89,649 in long, 123,470 in short, and 139,427 in spreading • Compared to two weeks ago, long positions were down by 12% while shorts were increased by 12%. This shows that the “Small Money” has turned bearish on soybeans In my opinion, micro soybean futures would be a great instrument to trade market-moving events, particularly the USDA reports. I list the big reports here for your information: • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), monthly, April 10th • Prospective Plantings, annually, March 31st • Grain Stocks, quarterly, March 31st, June 30th, September 30th • Export Sales, weekly, every Thursday • Crop Progress, weekly during growing season, April 7th, April 14th, April 21st • Acreage, annually, June 30th Hypothetically, a trader expects more soybean planting in this crop year and wants to express a bearish opinion ahead of April 7th Crop Progress. He could enter a short order for May contract MZSK5 at the current market price of 1,023. If he is correct in his view and the contract price drops to 900, the short position would gain $1.23 per bushel (= 1023-900) and the total gain is $615 given the contract size at 500 bushels. The risk of short futures is the continuous rise in soybean prices. The trader would be wise to set a stoploss at his sell order. For example, a stop loss at $11.00 would set the maximum loss to $385 (= (11.00-10.23) x 500). To learn more about all Micro Ag futures contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:MZS1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
3
Why Invest in RheinmetallWhy Invest in Rheinmetall Rheinmetall’s defense segment accounts for a significant portion of its revenue and profits, providing a stable and growing revenue stream due to increased global defense budgets. In recent years, global defense spending has risen, driven by geopolitical tensions and security concerns, particularly in Europe and NATO countries. Rheinmetall benefits from this trend with a focus on: • Military vehicles: The company produces combat vehicles, armored trucks, and defense platforms, which are in high demand due to modernization efforts in several global defense forces. • Ammunition: Rheinmetall is a leader in supplying ammunition for land, air, and naval forces, with long-term contracts in place to supply NATO forces. • Defense electronics: The company produces advanced radars, communication systems, and sensor technologies for military and security applications. Rheinmetall has a strong order backlog, which is a positive indicator for long-term growth. With long-term defense contracts with governments in Germany, NATO, and other international defense forces, Rheinmetall enjoys visibility and stability for the coming years. This gives investors confidence in sustained revenue streams, particularly in the defense sector, which is typically less sensitive to economic cycles. In addition to its defense business, Rheinmetall is a key supplier in the automotive sector, particularly in areas such as electrification and safety technologies. The company’s automotive division produces components for electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid vehicles, and safety systems such as braking systems and collision sensors. This diversification makes Rheinmetall a dual-sector play, giving investors exposure to both the defense and automotive industries, both of which are poised for growth. • Automotive Safety Systems: Increasing demand for active safety and driver assistance systems in the automotive sector provides Rheinmetall with solid growth prospects. • Electrification: The company is expanding its presence in the electric vehicle market, benefitting from the global shift toward sustainable transportation. Rheinmetall is highly focused on research and development (R&D), ensuring that it remains competitive in both the defense and automotive markets. The company continues to develop next-generation technologies such as cybersecurity solutions, autonomous military systems, and electric propulsion systems for vehicles. This commitment to innovation ensures that Rheinmetall remains at the cutting edge of both its sectors. Rheinmetall offers a relatively attractive valuation compared to its peers in the defense sector, with a P/E ratio of 18x. The company's strong operating margins and high return on equity highlight its strong financial health, making it an appealing option for value-oriented investors. Additionally, the company’s low debt-to-equity ratio ensures financial flexibility, further enhancing its attractiveness. Strong Buy Recommendation In conclusion, Rheinmetall AG represents a strong investment opportunity, offering investors a diversified portfolio with strong exposure to both defense and automotive markets. The company benefits from long-term defense contracts, a growing order backlog, and strong positions in military vehicles, ammunition, and automotive safety systems. Its commitment to innovation and technological advancement, coupled with a strong balance sheet, makes it an attractive option for those seeking exposure to the growing global defense and automotive technology markets. With solid revenue growth, high margins, and a relatively attractive valuation, we recommend Rheinmetall AG as a strong buy for investors seeking a balance of growth potential, stability, and defensive characteristics in both defense and automotive sectors.
XETR:RHMLong
by gorgevorgian
Silver (XAG/USD) Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish SetupMarket Overview & Context Silver (XAG/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows over the past few weeks. However, recent price action suggests a potential shift in momentum as a bearish Rising Wedge pattern emerges. This technical pattern often signals a possible trend reversal or correction. This analysis focuses on a 4-hour (H4) chart, which provides a medium-term perspective for traders. The market has recently encountered a strong resistance zone, and multiple price rejections indicate a potential downward move. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation The Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when the price moves higher within two converging trendlines. This structure suggests that while buyers are still in control, their momentum is weakening. Key Characteristics of the Rising Wedge in This Chart: Uptrend with Weakening Momentum: The price has been rising, but the higher highs are becoming less aggressive. The slope of the highs is flatter compared to the lows, which indicates declining bullish strength. Converging Trendlines: The price is getting squeezed between support and resistance. This tightening range typically precedes a breakout, with a higher probability of a bearish breakdown. Bearish Implications: A breakdown below the wedge’s lower trendline confirms bearish sentiment. The price could drop sharply toward the next major support level if sellers gain control. Key Technical Levels & Trading Strategy 1️⃣ Resistance Zone (Supply Area) – $34.50 to $34.60 The price has repeatedly tested but failed to break above this zone. This confirms that sellers are active in this area, leading to multiple rejections. A strong supply zone, making it an ideal stop-loss placement for short trades. 2️⃣ Support Level (Demand Area) – $30.50 to $30.60 This level has acted as major support in previous price action. If the breakdown occurs, this is the primary downside target for sellers. 3️⃣ Stop Loss – $34.61 Positioned just above resistance to minimize risk exposure. Ensures that if price moves against the trade, losses are contained. Trading Plan & Execution 📉 Short (Sell) Setup – Bearish Breakdown Expected ✅ Entry: A confirmed breakout below the rising wedge’s support trendline (~$33.50 - $33.80). ✅ Stop Loss: Placed slightly above $34.61, ensuring risk control. ✅ Target: $30.56, aligning with previous support zones and technical projections. Risk-Reward Analysis Entry at breakdown (~$33.50) Stop loss (~$34.61) – Risk: ~1.1 points Target (~$30.56) – Reward: ~2.9 points Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:3, making this a highly favorable short setup. Confirmation Signals to Watch Before Entering a Trade 📉 Break and Retest of Support as Resistance If price breaks below wedge support and retests it as new resistance, it strengthens the bearish case. 📉 Volume Spike on Breakdown A sharp increase in volume when breaking support confirms strong selling pressure. 📉 RSI Divergence (Bearish Signal) If the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows lower highs while the price makes higher highs, it suggests momentum weakness and a pending breakdown. Potential Trading Scenarios 📌 Bearish Scenario (High Probability) – Breakdown Confirmation If the price breaks below the wedge’s lower trendline and closes below $33.50, it will likely accelerate downward toward $30.56. Traders should enter short positions and hold for the target while managing risk with stop-loss levels. 📌 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability) – Invalidating the Pattern If the price breaks above $34.60 and holds, the rising wedge pattern is invalidated. This would signal continued bullish strength, and traders should avoid short positions. Conclusion & Final Thoughts ✅ The Rising Wedge Pattern suggests a potential bearish reversal in Silver (XAG/USD). ✅ If the price breaks the lower trendline, a drop toward $30.56 is highly probable. ✅ Traders should wait for confirmation signals before entering a trade. ✅ Risk management is crucial, with a stop-loss above $34.61 to minimize exposure. 🔹 This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity, making it ideal for traders seeking short positions in Silver.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
#COMP #COMPUSDT #Compound #Analysis #LONG #Eddy#COMP #COMPUSDT #Compound #Analysis #LONG #Eddy COMPUSDT.P Ready For Long Entry Important areas have been identified, the entry point has been touched in advance, and the pullback has been made on a lower timeframe, and it is ready to long entry upon receiving confirmation. This is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this scalping setup to enter the trade. Don't forget risk and capital management. The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management. Note: The price can go much higher than the second target, and there is a possibility of a 40% pump on this currency. By observing risk and capital management, obtaining the necessary approvals, and saving profits in the targets, you can keep it for the pump. Be successful and profitable.
by Eddy_Trade_
Having no position is also position- EURUSD - Official Tarrifs Dear Traders, Investors and every interested person I dont going to lie Im trough hard weeks maybe months after Trump became president although I’m sure you too. As of 01/04/2025 we are just few hours away to enjoy our rollercoaster ride in the amusement park of the USA GOVERMENT. Their old-new attractions is about tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. Those who’s are not familiar what is a tariff I recommend reading this part those, whose already going to the bed and waking up with it may skip it the following section. A **tariff** is a **tax imposed by a government on imported or exported goods**. It's one of the tools countries use in international trade policy. Here's a breakdown: Types of Tariffs : 1. Import Tariff – tax on goods coming **into** a country. ( We are dealing with this curently) 2. **Export Tariff** – tax on goods going **out** of a country (less common). Why Governments Use Tariffs: Protect domestic industries by making foreign products more expensive. Generate revenue for the government. -Retaliate against unfair trade practices or tariffs from other countries. Example: If the U.S. places a **20% tariff** on imported French wine, that means any French wine imported into the U.S. will have an additional 20% tax added to its price. This makes domestic wine relatively cheaper, helping local producers compete . ___________________________________________________________________________ As of April 1, 2025, President Donald Trump has implemented or announced tariffs affecting a wide range of goods from multiple countries. Here's a summary of the current tariff measures Tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1, 2025: President Trump signed executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. -March 4, 2025: These tariffs took effect, leading to retaliatory measures from both countries. April 2, 2025: Tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, which had been temporarily exempted, are set to be enforced. Tariffs on China -February 1, 2025: An additional 10% tariff was imposed on imports from China due to the country's alleged failure to curb the export of fentanyl precursors and address money laundering activities. March 4, 2025: The tariff rate on Chinese imports was increased to 20% Global Tariffs - COMMING April 2, 2025 President Trump has declared this date as "Liberation Day," marking the implementation of new tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances. Reciprocal Tariffs The administration plans to enforce tariffs that match the rates other countries impose on U.S. goods, effectively applying a **20% tariff** on most imports. Automobile Imports: A specific 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles, light trucks, and key automobile parts is set to take effect on April 3, 2025. Tariffs on the European Union- Because we treated very badly..... -February 26, 2025: President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the European Union, with a particular focus on the automotive sector. Secondary Tariffs on Oil Imports March 2025: The administration has threatened secondary tariffs on countries importing oil from Russia and Iran. This means that nations purchasing oil from these countries could face U.S. tariffs if they continue such trade while also engaging with the American market. ____________________________________________________________________________ In case of you get lost between the dates please take look at the Comprehensive Tariff Table – President Trump (2025) as of 01/04/2025 ____________________________________________________________________________ Hereafter I would like turn your attention to the period of 28/02/2025 - 19/03/2025 What caused this relentless and, for many traders, painful +5.35% upside move under 19 days? 🇩🇪 Germany has unveiled a comprehensive fiscal strategy involving substantial investments in both infrastructure and defense sectors over the next decade. Here's a breakdown of the planned expenditures: Infrastructure Investment: €500 Billion Special Fund : The government has established a €500 billion special fund dedicated to infrastructure and climate-related projects over a 12-year period. This fund is designed to modernize critical systems, including energy grids, transport networks, digital infrastructure, education, and healthcare facilities. Notably, €100 billion of this fund is earmarked specifically for climate action initiatives aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. Defense Spending: Exemption from Debt Brake: In a significant policy shift, Germany has amended its constitutional "debt brake" to exempt defense and security expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP from borrowing limits. This adjustment effectively removes the previous cap on defense spending, allowing for increased investments in military capabilities. Projected Defense Expenditure: While exact figures may vary based on annual GDP and specific defense needs, this exemption is anticipated to facilitate approximately €400 billion in additional defense spending over the next 10 years. This fiscal policy measures does not take place often, but honestly signs were on the market that something is cooking at the back: Someone knows something that I dont. And you neither. XETR:DAX from 01/January/2025 was not too much reason for the steady increase in the shadow of the trade war. FX:EURUSD just look at the price actions from 01/January/2025 till the German gov announcement. I could not explained for myself fundamentally what is happening. Why I see huge positioning with towards the upside when we still facing measures which can push major economies in the EURO AREA as France and Germany more deeper under the water where they already been.... No economic data refuted my findings. Anyway, after all I said to myself let’s wait meanwhile, I was shorting the EUR because I felt the possible damage of the planned measures are not correctly priced in. (Interest rate parity, industrial production under 50 ( which means contraction) and a few other things. ) 03/03/2025 Thats when everything got sense. Lesson learned: If you feel something do not suppress it especially when the signs are that strongs as above mentioned period. The effect: All Europen goverment bond yields skyrocketed TVC:DE10 TVC:FR10 Why ? The German plans means that the goverment needs money and market said well i need return so I will finance you +3% and 2,30% Bonds market are the real drivers behind the currency movements and this case the effect was drastic. In order to buy eur denominated bonds you need euro, therefore you exchange your currency to euro. ___________________________________________________________________________ Tomorrow questions is whats will be new in terms of tarrifs? I do expect that soon the inflation will edge higher in the US which can trigger US bonds yield to increase significantly, but is will lead for short term dollar gain. USA is playing with the fire since if their avarage debt interest payments will be +5% thats will open darker boxes soon than in 2008. Much darker. So thats why I would enjoy the short term currency gain which is autonomous and than exchange my dollar to euro everywhere.
by ElGatoTrade
Short on XAU USDWe can see gold has been on a ridiculous bullish run given all the uncertainty in the market. I believe if this continues we can see further upside - however I am going out on a limb to say this weekly candle will either brush the 3090 level or close as red. I have entered short positions via market order (in the royal blue colour) and have also set limit orders for shorts all the way up to 3129 (in the lighter blue colour). This analysis can definitely be wrong but I believe the market has made 2 drastically massive moves in the last 2 days which are somewhat unwarranted (yes gold is bullish but last 2 days have hit highs of 40-50 dollar moves. Let's see what the market bring tomorrow with ADP Non-Farm Employment data and also President Trump speaking later in the evening in the US. I have mapped out important levels using the Fibonacci tool and also psychological level of 3100. Key levels Short entries starting from 3119 - Set another order every dollar above all the way to 3129 Stop loss 3136 is my stop loss for this trade - If 3130 is broken with volume then I believe that we may push higher (If this happens likely the trade will be stopped out) Take Profit 3075 is the final TP area (0.5 Fib level using last 2 week high + low) - Given gold is in such a bullish phase it is foolish to hold onto shorts in my opinion (as we can see from the chart typically these bottoms are bought up and can be evidenced by the long candle wicks) - 3090 will be where I start to scale out of this position and adjust SL levels
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by Q4Signs
6
There is hope for BitcoinThere’s still hope for Bitcoin as long as it doesn’t break below the red line on the chart. That line represents a critical threshold; crossing it would push Bitcoin into a previous price zone where accumulation occurred, signaling the end of the current trend. Entering such a zone typically indicates a return to levels of prior consolidation. As long as Bitcoin holds above the red line, optimism remains alive, and the first milestone will be breaking out of the downward trend that has been dominating Bitcoin recently. Furthermore, Trump could end with the uncertainty and that would help BTC too. Do you think BTC can move upwards in the upcoming days? Or do you think we will se the price breaking down the red line?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TopChartPatterns
CAD/JPY Bearish Setup Near Resistance – Rejection Incoming?📉 Trend Analysis: The pair is in a downtrend, confirmed by the descending trendline. Lower highs and lower lows indicate bearish momentum. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance Zone (104.5 - 106.0): Marked in purple, this area has previously acted as support and is now a key resistance zone. Support Area: Around 100.0 - 101.0, a psychological level where price may find demand. 📊 Trade Scenario: Bearish Rejection Expected: Price is approaching the resistance zone and trendline confluence. If rejection occurs, a downward move towards 100.0 is likely. Break Above? If price breaks above the resistance zone and trendline, bullish momentum could invalidate the bearish setup. 🔍 Conclusion: Watching for rejection near 105.0-106.0 to confirm a short opportunity. If rejection happens, next targets are 102.0 → 100.0. A bullish breakout above 106.0 could shift momentum upwards.
Short
by MrStellanSight
#COMP #COMPUSDT #Compound #Update #Analysis #Eddy#COMP #COMPUSDT #Compound #Update #Analysis #Eddy COMPUSDT.P (( 3 Signals Analyzed on the chart )) Update on the analysis of this currency for you, dear followers, Everything is very clear on the chart and Important areas of the upper time frame for scalping are identified and named. This is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this scalping setup to enter the trade. I have analyzed for you the 3 moves that this currency is going to make in its upcoming trends. For you, follow moves 1, 2 & 3 in order according to the comments left on the chart. First, take a long scalp from the first marked point to the red marked lines and then follow the second move. The best short point is to the low demand area, which is the green area. The red line with the entry of snipers is the text. Finally, follow and for the third move in the green marked demand area, look for confirmation for swing trading and also long-term spot investment. It is never too late to buy and invest. Do not rush and do not be fooled by the positive movements and reactions of the market. Wait for the price to reach its valuable areas. In the analysis of the Compound currency, as you can see, there is a strong demand area that is intact. Be patient until the price falls from the decision or extreme flips to the green area of ​​the important demand area. Be sure to check this currency in your Daily & Weekly time frame and draw the areas. Then refer to the weekly, daily and four-hour time frames and draw the lower time areas and look for confirmation for volatility. Do not rush to invest and buy spot and let the price reach the support area. Be successful and profitable. "In the previous analysis of the Comp currency, we caught a beautiful pump. I hope you enjoyed and benefited from that analysis." Review and view previous Comp currency analysis :
by Eddy_Trade_
BTC UpdateBitcoin is likely to face short-term downward pressure in the next few days, primarily due to bearish technical signals and mixed sentiment. The price may test lower levels, such as around $71,000, as indicated by technical resistance. However, fundamental factors like the recent halving and potential interest rate cuts could provide underlying support, possibly leading to a rebound if sentiment turns more positive. Given the complexity of the market and the interplay of these variables, it’s crucial to monitor price action, news developments, and sentiment shifts closely for a clearer direction.
by D_Virtual
#NOT #NOTUSDT #NOTCOIN #AMD #Analysis #Spot #Long #Eddy#NOT #NOTUSDT #NOTCOIN #AMD #Analysis #Spot #Long #Eddy NOTUSDT Higher Time Frame "AMD" Analysis Great opportunity to invest spot at a specified price. Important areas of the higher time frame are identified and labled. This Analysis is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. (( AMD Analysis )) Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this analysis to buy entery the trade. Don't forget risk and capital management. The entry point, take profit point are indicated on the chart along with their amount. The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management. Note: The price can go much higher than the first target, and there is a possibility of a 300% & 1000% pump on this currency. By observing risk and capital management, obtaining the necessary approvals, and saving profits in the target, you can keep it for the pump. Be successful and profitable.
by Eddy_Trade_
What Is an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) Concept in Trading?What Is an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) Concept in Trading? Inverse Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) are a fascinating concept for traders seeking to refine their understanding of price behaviour. By identifying areas where market sentiment shifts, IFVGs provide unique insights into potential reversals and key price levels. In this article, we’ll explore what IFVGs are, how they differ from Fair Value Gaps, and how traders can integrate them into their strategies for more comprehensive market analysis. What Is a Fair Value Gap (FVG)? A Fair Value Gap (FVG) occurs when the market moves so rapidly in one direction that it leaves an imbalance in price action. This imbalance shows up on a chart as a gap between three consecutive candles: the wick of the first candle and the wick of the third candle fail to overlap, leaving a “gap” created by the second candle. It essentially highlights an area where buying or selling pressure was so dominant that the market didn’t trade efficiently. Traders view these gaps as areas of potential interest because markets often revisit these levels to "fill" the imbalance. For example, in a bullish FVG, the gap reflects aggressive buying that outpaced selling, potentially creating a future support zone. On the other hand, bearish FVGs indicate overwhelming selling pressure, which might act as resistance later. FVGs are closely tied to the concept of fair value. The gap suggests the market may have deviated from a balanced state, making it an area traders watch for signs of price rebalancing. Recognising and understanding these gaps can provide insights into where the price might gravitate in the future, helping traders assess key zones of interest for analysis. Understanding Inverse Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) An Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG), or Inversion Fair Value Gap, is an Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concept that builds on the idea of an FVG. While an FVG represents a price imbalance caused by strong directional movement, an IFVG emerges when an existing FVG is invalidated. This invalidation shifts the role of the gap, turning a bearish FVG into a bullish IFVG, or vice versa. Here’s how it works: a bearish FVG, for instance, forms when selling pressure dominates, leaving a gap that might act as resistance. However, if the market breaks through this gap—either with a wick or a candle close—it signals that the sellers in that zone have been overwhelmed. The bearish FVG is now invalidated and becomes a bullish IFVG, marking a potential area of support instead. The same applies in reverse for bullish FVGs becoming bearish IFVGs. Traders use inverted Fair Value Gaps to identify zones where market sentiment has shifted significantly. For example, when the price revisits a bullish IFVG, it may serve as a zone of interest for traders analysing potential buying opportunities. However, if the price moves past the bottom of the IFVG zone, it’s no longer valid and is typically disregarded. What makes these reverse FVGs particularly useful is their ability to highlight moments of structural change in the market. They can act as indicators of strength, revealing areas where price has transitioned from weakness to strength (or vice versa). By integrating IFVG analysis into their broader trading framework, traders can gain deeper insights into the evolving dynamics of supply and demand. Want to test your IFVG identification skills? Get started on FXOpen and TradingView. How Traders Use IFVGs in Trading By integrating IFVGs into their strategy, traders can refine their decision-making process and uncover potential setups aligned with their broader market outlook. Here’s how IFVGs are commonly used: Identifying Key Zones of Interest Traders begin by spotting FVGs on price charts—areas where rapid movements create imbalances. An inversion FVG forms when such a gap is invalidated; for instance, a bearish FVG becomes bullish if the price breaks above it. These zones are then marked as potential areas of interest, indicating where the market may experience significant activity. Contextualising Market Sentiment The formation of an IFVG signals a shift in market sentiment. When a bearish FVG is invalidated and turns into a bullish IFVG, it suggests that selling pressure has diminished and buying interest is gaining momentum. Traders interpret this as a potential reversal point, providing context for the current market dynamics. Analysing Price Reactions Once an IFVG is identified, traders monitor how the price interacts with this zone. If the price revisits a bullish IFVG and shows signs of support—such as slowing down its decline or forming bullish candlestick patterns—it may indicate a strengthening upward movement. Conversely, if the price breaches the IFVG without hesitation, the anticipated reversal might not materialise. How Can You Trade IFVGs? IFVGs provide traders with a structured way to identify and analyse price levels where sentiment has shifted. The process typically looks like this: 1. Establishing Market Bias Traders typically start by analysing the broader market direction. This often involves looking at higher timeframes, such as the daily or 4-hour charts, to identify trends or reversals. Tools like Breaks of Structure (BOS) or Changes of Character (CHoCH) within the ICT framework help clarify whether the market is leaning bullish or bearish. Indicators, such as moving averages or momentum oscillators, can also provide additional context for confirming directional bias. A strong bias ensures the trader is aligning setups with the dominant market flow. 2. Identifying and Using IFVGs Once a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is invalidated—indicating a significant shift in sentiment—it transforms into an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG). Traders mark the IFVG zone as a key area of interest. If it aligns with their broader market bias, this zone can serve as a potential entry point. For instance, in a bearish bias, traders may focus on bearish IFVGs that act as potential resistance zones. 3. Placing Orders and Risk Management Traders often set a limit order at the IFVG boundary, anticipating a retracement and for the area to hold. A stop loss is typically placed just beyond the IFVG or a nearby swing high/low to manage risk. For exits, targets might include a predefined risk/reward ratio, such as 1:3, or a significant technical level like an order block or support/resistance area. This approach ensures trades remain structured and grounded in analysis. Advantages and Disadvantages of IFVGs IFVGs offer traders a unique lens through which to analyse price movements, but like any tool, they come with both strengths and limitations. Understanding these can help traders incorporate IFVGs into their strategies. Advantages - Highlight market sentiment shifts: IFVGs pinpoint areas where sentiment has reversed, helping traders identify key turning points. - Refined entry zones: They provide precise areas for potential analysis, reducing guesswork and offering clear levels to watch. - Flexibility across markets: IFVGs can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, or indices, making them versatile. - Complementary to other tools: They pair well with other ICT tools like BOS, CHoCH, and order blocks for enhanced analysis. Disadvantages - Subject to interpretation: Identifying and confirming IFVGs can vary between traders, leading to inconsistencies. - Limited standalone reliability: IFVGs need to be used alongside broader market analysis; relying solely on them increases risk. - Higher timeframe dependence: Their effectiveness can diminish on lower timeframes, where noise often obscures true sentiment shifts. - Potential for invalidation: While IFVGs signal potential opportunities, they aren’t guarantees; price can break through, rendering them ineffective. The Bottom Line Inverse Fair Value Gaps provide traders with a structured approach to identifying market shifts and analysing key price levels. By integrating IFVGs into a broader strategy, traders can uncover valuable insights and potentially refine their decision-making. Ready to apply IFVG trading in real markets? Open an FXOpen account today and explore potential trading opportunities across more than 700 markets, alongside four advanced trading platforms and competitive conditions. FAQ What Is an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG)? The IFVG meaning refers to a formation that occurs when a Fair Value Gap (FVG) is invalidated. For example, a bearish FVG becomes bullish after the price breaks above it, creating a potential support zone. Similarly, a bullish FVG can transform into a bearish IFVG if the price breaks below it, creating a potential resistance zone. IFVGs highlight shifts in market sentiment, providing traders with areas of interest for analysing possible reversals or continuation zones. What Is the Difference Between a Fair Value Gap and an Inverse Fair Value Gap? A Fair Value Gap (FVG) is an imbalance caused by aggressive buying or selling, creating a price gap that may act as support or resistance. An Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) occurs when the original FVG is invalidated—indicating a shift in sentiment—and its role flips. For instance, a bearish FVG invalidated by a price breakout becomes a bullish IFVG. What Is the Difference Between BPR and Inverse FVG? A Balanced Price Range (BPR) represents the overlap of two opposing Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), creating a sensitive zone for potential price reactions. In contrast, an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) is a concept based on a single FVG that has been invalidated, flipping its role. While both are useful, BPR reflects the equilibrium between buyers and sellers, whereas IFVG highlights sentiment reversal. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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by FXOpen
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Japan's Business Sentiment Mixed, Yen StrengthensThe Japanese yen has gained ground on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.27, down 0.47% on the day. The yen was red-hot in the fourth quarter of 2024, gaining a massive 9.5% against the US dollar, but has reversed directions in Q1, declining 4.7%. The Manufacturing Tankan index indicated that confidence among manufacturers eased to 12 in Q1 2025, down from 14 in the previous quarter. This was the lowest level in a year, reflective of growing concern among Japanese manufacturers over US tariff policy. The Non-manufacturing Tankan index, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, climbing to 35 in Q1, up from 33 in the Q4 2024 release. This was the fastest pace of growth since August 1991, as companies are increasingly passing on costs to consumers. The mixed Tankan report is unlikely to change the cautious stance of the Bank of Japan, which has expressed concerns about the uncertainty caused by the threat of additional US tariffs. The BoJ held rates steady in March and the next meeting is on May 1, with the markets projecting another hold. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose wide-ranging tariffs on April 2, leaving US trading partners and the financial markets highly anxious ahead of what Trump has declared "Liberation Day". It is unclear which countries will be targeted or what the tariff rates will be, which has only added to financial market jitters. If Trump goes ahead with the tariffs and targeted countries retaliate with counter-tariffs, we will be one step closer to a global trade war. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 149.65. Below, there is support at 149.02 There is resistance at 150.59 and 151.22
by OANDA
XAUUSD-GOLD can still break upward ? read captionGold (XAU/USD) has just soared to a new all-time high, reflecting heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties. The surge comes as global markets react to inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policies, further strengthening gold’s position as a premier store of value. With central banks increasing their reserves and investors seeking stability, the precious metal continues to shine, marking a historic moment in the financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore