Looking to Short Bitcoin if Key Support FailsFrom a short-term perspective, the instrument is in a well-defined uptrend, so shorting at current levels doesn’t make much sense. It’s better to wait for signs of weakness — specifically, when price starts to move lower and breaks below the initial local lows.
In this case, the key zone to watch is the narrow range between 91,911 and 91,631. If price begins to break below that range, a short setup becomes valid, with the first target at 82,953–82,753. The final target is 74,565–74,456.
For now, though, price is still moving upward and could continue higher. Wait for confirmation before taking any position.
Fundamental Analysis
Acadia Healthcare Company | ACHC | Long at $21.98Acadia Healthcare's NASDAQ:ACHC stock has fallen nearly -76% in a year, primarily due to weak 2024 results, missed revenue and EPS expectations, and a soft 2025 revenue guidance. Ongoing federal investigations into billing practices and lawsuits have further eroded investor confidence. However, it is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.42x and earnings are forecast to grow 7.07% per year. The profitable company is trading at a good value compared to other healthcare companies. Debt-to-equity is relatively low (0.64x), but legal risks (DOJ probe, lawsuits) strain margins.
The stock has entered my "major crash" simple moving average territory and there is a lot of downward / selling pressure. But, more often than not, this area (which... I caution... still extends down near $16) can often signal a temporary or longer-term bottom. Personally, this is a buy area ($16-$21) even if it turns into a short-term bounce in 2025. But I believe the overall market moves in the S&P 500, etc. will guide this stock more than anything at this point (unless more bad news about the company emerges).
One thing to note is that there are open price gaps on the daily chart near $17, $10, and $8. These gaps, which often (but not always) get closed in the lifetime of a stock, are a potential signal for further declines - at least at some point. There could be a drop near $16, then a $10-$20 bullish price increase after that, followed by more declines (trapping investors). Time will tell, but NASDAQ:ACHC is currently attractively valued. From a technical analysis standpoint, it is in a personal "buy zone", even if purely for a swing trade.
Targets:
$27.00
$33.00
$39.00
OFSS Weekly | Bullish Harmonic Reversal & RSI Breakout | Short-T📈 Swing Trade Recommendation (Short-Term):
Buy Zone: ₹8,600–₹8,750 (on dips or on strength)
Target 1: ₹9,300 (initial resistance and round number)
Target 2: ₹10,200–₹10,500 (next harmonic resistance zone)
Stoploss: ₹8,050 (below recent swing low)
🔍 Technical Highlights:
Bullish Harmonic Structure forming with strong reversal from "C" to "D".
Volume breakout supports the current leg of momentum.
RSI bullish divergence and breakout confirms potential trend reversal.
For Education purpose only
WTI crude about to resume lower?WTI formed a large bearish engulfing candle on its daily chart yesterday near the key $65 resistance level. Was that an indication that prices have ended their corrective bounce? Time will tell, but today's oil prices have bounced back. With the trade uncertainty in the background, demand concerns remain high.
So, I wouldn't be surprised if prices were to resume lower from here. The trend is clearly bearish with the moving averages all pointing lower, not to mention the lower highs and lower lows.
If the selling resumes, watch for possible bounces at the next key round handles like $62, $61 and $60. But there is always the possibility of a sweep below this month's earlier lows if macro concerns intensify.
Meanwhile, the bullish idea is off the table for me for now until we see some progress in US-China trade talks at least, or if prices show a major bullish reversal signal.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
MAGIC – Building Energy for the Next Move?Hey traders!
#MAGIC has shown strong volume over the past few days, and now it's consolidating sideways – hovering just above a key support zone. This kind of setup often signals that a bigger move is brewing... but which way?
Here’s what we’re watching:
✅ Support holding firm – buyers seem to be stepping in around this level.
✅ Volume remains healthy, indicating continued interest.
✅ Price is coiling, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
📌 Our Plan:
We’re eyeing a breakout above the resistance level for confirmation of the next leg up. Once that happens, we’ll look for a retest of the breakout zone as our entry point for a long position – backed by proper risk management, of course! 💯
🎯 Target: Previous highs
📉 Invalidation: Clear breakdown below support
What do you think? Are you watching MAGIC too? Drop your thoughts, charts, or setups below! Let’s build together. 🔥👇
#MAGIC #Altcoins #CryptoTrading #BreakoutSetup #PriceAction #SupportAndResistance #VolumeAnalysis #TradeSetup #TradingView #CryptoCommunity
GBPAUD DETAILED ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALSGBPAUD is currently showing strong bullish momentum after a clean bounce from a key support level around 2.0600–2.0700. The pair has formed a textbook bullish flag pattern on the 12H chart, indicating a potential continuation of the prevailing uptrend. Price action is respecting the trend structure well, and a breakout above the descending flag resistance could open the doors toward the next major resistance around 2.20. I'm currently watching the 2.0870–2.0900 zone closely, as a sustained close above this level may trigger a high-probability upside continuation.
From a technical standpoint, this consolidation within the bullish flag is healthy after a strong impulsive move that started in late March. Volume is gradually decreasing within the flag, which often precedes a breakout. The risk-reward setup here is compelling, with a clear invalidation below 2.0450 and a defined target at 2.2000, aligning perfectly with the recent highs and psychological round number.
On the fundamental side, GBP remains well-supported due to the Bank of England’s hawkish tone. Sticky inflation data in the UK is pushing market expectations for further tightening or at least a delay in rate cuts. Meanwhile, AUD continues to lag behind amid concerns over China’s economic recovery and the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious policy stance. Recent Australian CPI data showed signs of easing inflation, which strengthens the divergence between BOE and RBA, favoring more upside in GBPAUD.
This setup is ideal for swing traders and position traders looking to capture a trend continuation with a clear structure and clean price action. GBPAUD is now on breakout watch and remains one of the top-performing GBP pairs in April. If momentum aligns post-breakout, the 2.20 target could be reached swiftly. Keep this pair on your radar—momentum, structure, and fundamentals are in sync for a bullish scenario.
April 24, 2025 - Not getting fired (yet)Hello everyone, it’s April 24, 2025, welcome back to another wild episode of “Trumponomics: The Market Edition.” For the second day in a row, global markets are on the rise, and yes, it’s all thanks to the Trump playbook: slap tariffs everywhere, terrify the market, escalate tensions, then toss out a gesture of peace and voilà — rally mode engaged.
The key word this morning? Relief. Relief that Trump might chill out on China, and Powell isn’t getting fired (yet). But let’s not pop the champagne too soon — anyone betting against a weekend plot twist from Trump hasn’t been paying attention.
In the US, the Fed’s Beige Book (a.k.a. the economy’s mood diary) painted a picture that’s… let’s say “limp but not lifeless.” Only 5 of the 12 Fed districts saw growth, and even that was more “walker with tennis balls” than Olympic sprint. Inflation? Creeping in slowly, with companies sharpening their price-hike pencils just in case Trump cranks up the tariff heat again. Employment? Not awful, but nothing to brag about. And uncertainty? It was mentioned 80 times in the report. That’s not a joke.
Meanwhile, auto sales are up — not because the economy’s booming, but because Americans are panic-buying ahead of expected price surges from more tariffs. Business travel is tanking, and tourism’s taking a nosedive. Welcome to the “Not-quite-a-crisis-but-definitely-not-fine” States of America.
As for OANDA:XAUUSD , after a brief flirtation with $3,500, it’s cooled down to $3,337. BLACKBULL:WTI is holding at $62.86. And INDEX:BTCUSD ? It’s back in the spotlight at $92,000 and climbing — yes, people are talking about it again, which should tell you something about the vibe out there.
On the politics front, Trump hinted that the tariff moratorium could be revoked for some countries, and he’s back to pestering Powell to cut rates. Classic. Meanwhile, Wall Street is just trying not to get whiplash. NYSE:BA numbers came in better than feared, and NASDAQ:NVDA supply chain via INX looks solid despite wild swings.
Today’s economic calendar includes durable goods data and jobless claims in the CME_MINI:ES1! are down 0.2% — looks like investors are just bracing for the next Trump curveball.
TL;DR: Markets are riding the Trump-coaster, gold cooled off, crypto’s surging, and America’s economy is wobbling but still upright — for now. Keep your helmets on.
GOLD recovers, market sentiment correction may stopAfter US President Trump hinted that tariffs on China could be reduced and that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the market's risk-off sentiment cooled and international gold prices fell on Wednesday (April 23) before recovering slightly in early trading today, Thursday (April 24).
Last night, Trump made some important comments, not only clearly showing a softer stance on China but also making it clear that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (in fact, he has no authority to do so).
The current bullish cycle in OANDA:XAUUSD is largely driven by the market pricing in the risk of “stagflation”, but as this risk is gradually eliminated, gold could see a significant correction.
Looking at the big picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing policy. But in the short term, if positive tariff news continues to emerge, gold could fall further and the market will adjust to the new environment.
Earlier, after days of harsh criticism of the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates, Trump withdrew his threat to fire Chairman Powell. At the same time, he also expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China to significantly reduce import tariffs from China, but also warned that "if they don't make a deal, we'll make a deal."
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its forecast for global and US economic growth this year, citing Trump's tariff policies as the main reason for the downgrade.
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has set new historical highs several times since the beginning of 2025, with a cumulative increase of more than 26%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After 2 days of significant correction, gold recovered in today's Asian trading session (24/4) with the recovery level taking the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point as the nearest support. As noted to readers throughout the publications, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the main support from the EMA21, as long as the price decline does not break below the above supports, it should only be considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity.
As of now, gold is trading around $3,333/oz, up 1.38% on the day and around $45 and the upside momentum is expected to test the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level followed by $3,430.
For the day, the main technical outlook for gold is bullish recovery, and the notable positions are listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,245
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,430
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3387
→Take Profit 1 3375
↨
→Take Profit 2 3369
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3206 - 3208⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3202
→Take Profit 1 3214
↨
→Take Profit 2 3220
Spy Road To $500 or $481📉 The Road Below $500? Here's the Case.
While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing — possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks.
Technical Breakdown
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered.
Diverging RSI — lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence.
MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift.
Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution.
SMA50 Breach likely — and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity.
CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear.
Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical — fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk.
📰 Macro Headlines Fuel the Case
Powell’s latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names.
Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility.
Key Levels to Watch:
$507–$510 = current distribution zone (supply).
$500 = major psychological & technical level.
$491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) — very likely magnet.
Final Thought:
This isn't fear — it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path.
Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
Gold Analysis April 24D1 candle closed with a sharp decline of nearly 100 prices
And today's opening with a price gap of more than 100 prices shows the instability of the market.
Returning to the h1 time frame wave will be easier to grasp. At the beginning of the European session, the market decided that the buyers won and are pushing up from 3322. Pay attention to the immediate area of 3340. If it breaks at the end of the European session, continue to wait for the price reaction at 3363. If it doesn't break, you can SELL. In the opposite direction, if it breaks 3363, wait for 3384 for the SELL strategy.
The BUY strategy is focused on the European session's price push zone of 3322. When it breaks, pay attention to the GAP opening zone this morning at 3295 and the bottom zone yesterday at 3266
My $BTCUSD analysis, called out at 82.9k for a measured 12% move*DISCLAIMER* this is not financial advice and cannot be construed as such
CALLED OUT AT 82.9K going to 105k make sure you launch the chart and put the candles on Heiken Ashi
$BTCUSDBreakdown and technical/fundamental analysis on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
THANKS ALL GLTA!
April 24 NY Recap – XAUUSD Buy Sniped from 3310 to 3340🎯 April 24 NY Recap – XAUUSD Buy Sniped from 3310 to 3340 💥our first TP
Today’s NY session was all about precision and patience.
🔹 The market opened with a calm continuation of the post-Claims structure, giving bulls a final chance to reenter from the 3310 sniper zone, previously posted in our daily plan.
📍 Breakdown of the 3310 Buy
• Zone: H1–H4 demand confluence
• Confirmation: Clean rejection on M15, followed by consolidation and impulsive breakout
• Confluence:
– Untouched OB + FVG
– Price locked above M30 EMA100
– Discounted fib zone
– RSI bounce on M15
• Execution: Buy 3310.70 → TP 3340.78
• Result: +300 pips
Not just a technical win — but a mindset win. Snipers don’t chase. They wait.
🧠 NY Session Notes
• No macro drivers today, which gave full control to pure PA + structure
• Liquidity was swept below 3310 before aggressive buying stepped in
• Once price reclaimed 3330–3340, we saw a clean continuation to premium
• TP hit with no retest — textbook sniper exit
💬 Let’s Talk – No Chart Needed
📈 Did you catch the 3310 buy?
💭 How did your NY session go?
👇 Drop your thoughts or reentry ideas below — we learn every session.
📲 Like, Comment, and Follow to keep this stream of real structure-based updates alive.
We don’t predict. We react.
And today, we reacted perfectly. 💛
BTCUSD Analysis Today: Technical and On-Chain !In this video, I will share my BTCUSD analysis by providing my complete technical and on-chain insights, so you can watch it to improve your crypto trading skillset. The video is structured in 4 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the on-chain data analysis, then I will be moving to the liquidation maps analysis and lastly, I will be putting together these 3 different types of analysis.
SOLANA (SOL) – Bearish Breakdown Incoming? Watch These Key LevelHey Traders!
#SOL is currently showing strong bearish signals on the 2H timeframe:
🔸 Rising Wedge Pattern spotted — a classic bearish reversal structure.
🔸 Bearish Divergence on RSI — momentum is weakening while price continues higher.
🔸 Breakdown from the wedge already occurred — confirming the initial weakness.
Next Key Support Zone: $120–$130
This zone has held multiple times, but a clean break below followed by a retest could offer a high-probability short setup.
🎯 Trade Plan:
We’re watching for:
Break of the $120–$130 support
Retest of the broken level
Entry on confirmation with strict risk management
💬 What’s your take on #SOL? Are you bullish or bearish? Drop your thoughts below!
🧠 Trade smart, manage your risk, and follow for more TA like this!
📌 Like, comment, and share if you found this helpful.
#SOL #Solana #CryptoTrading #BearishDivergence #RisingWedge #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortTrade #CryptoTA #Altcoins
O as in OverboughtThis is unusual for me, and full disclosure, I am not personally trading this. I don't short on margin and the spreads on puts are a little too wide for my liking. So think of this as my musing on a market that I think is still overbought from last week.
I get why it has been running - yield is tantalizing in a struggling market, and monthly payouts even more so, I suspect. But I am firmly of the belief that we are headed for some pretty rough times in the economy, and retail real estate, triple net lease or not, is not where I'd want to be, personally. Their top 3 tenants are Dollar General, Walgreens, and Dollar Tree, who are all having their own struggles right now.
6 consecutive up days causing a retail-leveraged REIT to jump almost 10% when economic data is flashing recesssionary warning signals, along with pending inflationary impacts of tariffs does not help its case. So simply as a short term, overbought in a bad space call, I'm expecting NYSE:O to go lOwer soon.
I'll consider tactically adding to the short and closing when the price is lower than the average lot sales price. This might result in an individual lot ending with a loss, but an overall trade win. With shorts, I don't get hung up on that.
Feel free to disagree, and I could well be wrong. I had the same thesis about 2 months ago on AT&T and barely escaped a put trade with a profit and it got pretty ugly before I did. So remember, none of this is investment advice. Just a hot take on a stock that I think is hotter than it should be right now. Act accordingly and DYOR.
TSLA, the king of all meme stocksYesterday, Q1 earnings call. Stock misses earnings by 30% on already reduced expectations of 0.38. Had it been earnings expectations from a week before (which was 0.434), it would've missed by around 45%.
Still, the stock manages to rebound from mid 220s up to 257 in a single day (around 10%). It's impressive, but still looms a ceiling just up ahead (258-260) which I think is the perfect opportunity to short. Will be invalid if it manages to push up above 267.6 which is the local resistance line and a major historic resistance also.
That said. I think the odds are good in shorting around 258-260. Expecting a fall towards low 200s and even towards high 170s.
The Interest Rates Paradox and How it'd Predict a Market Top NowIt is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets.
However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities began increasing rates well before market tops were reached.
Surprisingly, instead of slowing the market in the short term, these rate hikes coincided with a parabolic run-up in asset prices .
The paradox lies in the fact that while rising rates are expected to dampen market exuberance, during these bubbles, they coexisted with—and arguably even fueled—frenzied market behavior.
This paradox has played out yet again over the last years. With us seeing not only the parabolic rally phase during the interest rate hikes but also us having a current agreement with the interest rates and equites topping at the same time. As with all previous market tops. As we sit here today, we have followed the interest rate topping paradox to the letter.
Let's look more into it.
Historical Patterns and the Paradox
The Early Phase: Initial hikes into a heating up market.
In each of these historical cases, central banks initiated rate hikes as part of a broader strategy to temper what they viewed as emerging economic imbalances. In the late 1980s, for instance, the Bank of Japan began tightening monetary policy as asset prices soared, anticipating overheating in the economy. Despite these early rate increases, the Nikkei continued its upward trajectory, ultimately reaching its peak in December 1989. This pattern was echoed in the U.S. during the dotcom era. Leading into the 2000 peak, the Federal Reserve started to raise rates to control inflationary pressures—even as the technology-heavy market rallied to unsustainable heights.
The pattern has always been similar. Markets are starting to get hot and perhaps there's some unwanted consequence of this (like inflation). So the central bank takes actions to cool things down with the interest rate hikes. Although there have been reactions from this in the near term, overall the trend has become stronger and stronger during the hike cycle.
Let me give you an example to add some context. Alan Greenspan is famous for the "Irrational exuberance" comment. He said that in 1996! The Nasdaq absolutely boomed from there for another 4 years. What had happened before was nothing compared to what came after the interest rate hikes started.
The Parabolic Reaction: Markets Defy Conventional Logic
What seems paradoxical is that rather than a smooth deceleration, markets often reacted to these rate hikes with an intensified speculative fervor. During the dotcom and housing bubbles, small increases in rates did not immediately curb investor optimism; instead, they appeared to add urgency, fueling a belief that the market was resilient enough to outperform despite higher borrowing costs. The market’s parabolic rise in asset prices during periods of tightening monetary policy is counterintuitive, suggesting that investors were less influenced by the immediate cost of capital and more driven by momentum and fear of missing out.
By the high of these rallies it was firmly believed that this was a sign the uptrends would continue. Indeed, they could only get stronger as the interest rates came back down.
....Nah uh. Wasn't how it went all!
And we find ourselves in a strongly similar situation now in 2025.
Leveling Off and the Market Peak
It gets weirder still when you notice rather than markets slowing down on rate cuts they highs of the equites rallies always came rate increases eventually plateau.
Historical data shows that when interest rates stabilized—often within a narrow band of around 5% to 6.5%—this stabilization coincided with the market reaching its absolute peak. In these instances, the plateau did not signal the end of the monetary tightening cycle; rather, it marked the culmination of the bubble. Market participants, having pushed prices to their limits, were suddenly confronted with a reversion, as the underlying economic fundamentals could no longer justify the inflated asset values.
Knowing what happened before does not let you know what will happen in the future, but it's worth knowing. It may well just end up being useful in the future. In every instance of a big market top in the last 50 years the pattern was interest rate hikes and parabolic rallies in this phase, when the hikes stopped the first market sell off began.
We have an exact matching of these conditions now.
The Bear Market and Rate Easing
Once the market had peaked, and the bubble burst, central banks found themselves in a difficult position. In response to the ensuing economic downturns, monetary authorities were compelled to cut rates dramatically—even as equity markets remained subdued. This rapid reduction in rates was aimed at stabilizing economies and stimulating recovery, yet it often came too late to salvage the once-insatiable market exuberance. The inversion of the earlier paradox—where rate hikes were accompanied by soaring markets—serves as a stark reminder of the complexity of monetary policy in times of speculative excess.
All you have to do is look at any of the interest rate charts for the crash in question and it's clear to see these both peaked and reversed around the same time. During bubbles, historically correlation with equities and interest rates is close to prefect. From the start of our interest rate hikes to now, this has continued to apply.
A play out of the historical norms for this would now see rates continue to drop with equities dropping alongside them (Overall, maybe rallying on the news now and then).
Which would make this a rather risky time to be buying the dip.
=================================
Realistic Examples of the Paradox
=================================
Nikkei Bubble (Late 1980s):
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan initiated rate hikes to cool a rapidly expanding economy and soaring asset prices.
Market Behavior: Despite these increases, the Nikkei continued its parabolic climb, peaking in December 1989.
Aftermath: Following the bubble’s burst, rates were cut sharply as the market entered a prolonged bear phase.
Dotcom Bubble (Late 1990s to 2000):
Monetary Policy: In response to rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates before the bubble reached its zenith.
Market Behavior: Rather than curbing exuberance, the rate hikes coincided with an acceleration in market gains, contributing to an unsustainable rise in tech stock valuations.
Aftermath: The eventual plateau in rates occurred as the market hit its peak, soon followed by a dramatic downturn when investor sentiment shifted.
U.S. Housing Bubble (Mid-2000s):
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s gradual rate increases were part of an effort to moderate the housing market’s explosive growth.
Market Behavior: Housing prices continued to rise, reflecting an underlying confidence in the market that outpaced the modest increases in borrowing costs.
Aftermath: When rates eventually leveled off, the market was near its peak, and subsequent rate cuts during the bear market underscored the stark reversal of fortunes.
EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair is exhibiting bullish tendencies, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1515 acting as a critical resistance. A break above this level, accompanied by supportive economic indicators and ECB policies, could lead the pair towards the target of 1.15132. Traders should remain vigilant for confirmation signals to assess the likelihood of this upward movement.