US DOLLAR INDEX Correlation Between Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates
1. Bond Prices vs. Yields
Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
When bond prices rise, yields fall (e.g., demand for safe-haven assets drives prices up).
When bond prices fall, yields rise (e.g., selling pressure due to inflation fears).
Example: A 1% Fed rate hike can cause bond prices to drop, pushing 10-year yields up by ~1.3% .
2. 10-Year Bond Yields vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Positive Correlation: Typically, higher yields attract foreign capital into USD assets, strengthening the dollar.
A 1% rise in 10-year yields historically correlates with a 1–2% DXY appreciation .
Risk-Off Scenarios: Investors may flock to both Treasuries (pushing yields down) and USD (DXY↑), weakening the usual correlation .
Policy Divergence: If the Fed delays rate cuts amid global easing, yields and DXY may diverge temporarily .
3. Interest Rates vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Direct Relationship: Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar by attracting yield-seeking capital.
A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike can boost DXY by 1–2% .
Example: In 2018, Fed rate hikes to 2.5% drove DXY gains of ~8% .
Inverse Impact on Bonds: Rate hikes depress bond prices (yields rise), reinforcing the DXY-yield link .
4. Interest Rates vs. Bond Yields
Policy-Driven: Fed rate changes directly influence short-term yields, while long-term yields (e.g., 10-year) reflect growth/inflation expectations.
The 10-year yield often leads Fed policy shifts. For example, yields fell 150 basis points ahead of 2019 rate cuts .
The 2-year Treasury yield is particularly sensitive to Fed expectations, serving as a "policy barometer" .
Summary Table of Relationships
Factor Relationship with DXY Relationship with 10-Year Yields
Bond Prices ↑ DXY ↓ (safe-haven flows weaken USD) Yields ↓ (inverse bond price-yield link)
10-Year Yields ↑ DXY ↑ (capital inflows) —
Interest Rates ↑ DXY ↑ (yield appeal) Yields ↑ (policy tightening)
Risk-Off Sentiment DXY ↑ (safe-haven demand) Yields ↓ (bond buying)
Key Exceptions and Contexts
Term Premium Dynamics:
Recent 10-year yield spikes (e.g., to 4.54%) are driven by market psychology (90% due to deficits/inflation fears vs. 10% fundamentals) .
Economic Growth Differentials:
Stronger US GDP growth (vs. peers) supports both yields and DXY, while weak growth decouples them .
Geopolitical Risks:
Trade tensions (e.g., US-China tariffs) can strengthen DXY as a safe haven, even if yields dip .
Conclusion
The Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-year bond yields generally share a positive correlation, reinforced by interest rate policies and capital flows. However, this relationship can weaken during risk-off environments or when fiscal/monetary policies diverge. Bond prices and yields remain inversely tied, while Fed rate decisions directly impact both yields and the dollar. Traders should monitor growth data, inflation trends, and central bank signals to navigate these interconnected dynamics.
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