STOCKS | MARKET WATCH | Why Long-Term Investing Still Wins🤯 The start of 2025 was a bit of a rollercoaster for stocks.
Global markets got seriously rattled in the first few months by some sudden jitters. When President Trump announced those aggressive tariffs, it caused significant concern among investors, sending stock markets tumbling and prompting a flight to safety. Like Reuters said, April was "epic" for crazy market swings – the VIX fear index shot up to levels we hadn't seen since 2020 and 2008, and then just as quickly dropped back down. Markets went wild.
But then, by late April, the panic kind of ... disappeared. Once President Trump paused the implementation of the most severe tariffs, stocks bounced back pretty sharply. The S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost. After that nasty drop, it ended April only about 5% lower than it started the year. The Nasdaq, with all its tech stocks, pretty much ended the month where it began. So, after all that drama, major US stock markets weren't far from their all-time highs, showing how fast that "fear" can vanish.
📊 How key indexes did
S&P 500 (USA): 📉 Dipped in early April but bounced back late. Ended April around -5% for the year, after almost hitting a bear market.
Nasdaq Composite (USA): 📉 Similar story. Tanked on the tariff scare, then rallied when things calmed down, ending April pretty much flat for the year.
MSCI World (Global developed markets): 🤷♂️ Had its ups and downs along with the US markets. By the end of April, it was pretty much flat for the year – no big moves for the overall world index.
MSCI Emerging Markets: 📉 Didn't do as well as developed markets. Asian stocks, especially, took a hit early April because of trade war worries, so this index lagged, even though it recovered a bit by the end of the month.
FTSE/JSE All-Share (South Africa): 🇿🇦 The odd one out! The JSE jumped about +5% in the first three months of 2025, mainly thanks to mining stocks. It even hit a record high in March. The April craziness shook it up too, but because it did so well earlier, it was still slightly up for the year by late April.
Takeaway? Global stocks were jumpy, but they mostly recovered. By late April, most major indexes were close to where they started the year. South Africa's market was the exception, having a good first quarter that helped it weather the April storm.
⏳ Staying invested beats trying to be a stock Wizard
All this back and forth can make investors nervous. You start thinking, "Should I just sell now before it drops even more?" But history usually says that's the wrong move. Just sticking with it usually works out better than trying to guess the market's next move. BlackRock's iShares recently pointed out that "waiting for the 'right time' to invest might mean missing out on the best days," while staying invested lets you benefit from that "compounding" thing and get through the short-term bumps. Simply put, if you sit on the sidelines during big swings, you often miss the big rebound days. One study even showed that if you missed just the five best market days over 20 years, you'd end up with way less money than someone who just stayed in the market.
The legendary investor Charlie Munger put it simply: "The first rule of compounding: never interrupt it unnecessarily." Trying to jump in and out of the market around all the volatility is super tough – the biggest up days often follow right after the biggest down days. On the other hand, patient investors who just ride out the noise tend to grab more of those long-term gains. After all, with compounding, those small gains build on each other over time.
💰 The awesome power of compounding over time
Compounding basically means the sooner you invest and the longer you stay invested, the more your returns build on each other like a snowball rolling downhill. For example, the total return JSE All-Share index was up almost 23% over the last year. That kind of gain shows how just staying invested during good times can really grow your wealth. If you'd panicked and pulled out, you would have missed most of that growth. Over longer periods, like 5 to 10 years, the JSE has almost always gone up. The big lesson is that it's about "time in the market," not trying to "time the market," that really makes your returns grow and smooths out those bumps along the way.
🌍 What's driving the markets and the economy
There were a few big things happening that explain why the markets moved the way they did.
🇺🇸 US GDP Slowdown: The US economy actually shrank a bit in the first quarter of 2025. A lot of people blamed this on a big surge in imports as businesses bought stuff ahead of those potential President Trump tariffs. Even though this news spooked the stock market briefly in late April, underlying consumer spending was still looking pretty decent.
📈 US Company Profits: On the bright side, US companies reported some pretty strong profits. Analysts were expecting good growth in earnings for the S&P 500 in the first quarter, even with the economic slowdown. And it turned out even better – a lot of companies beat expectations, and overall earnings were up quite a bit from last year. This helped keep stock prices from falling too much during the pullbacks.
🇪🇺 European Spending Boost: In Europe, governments are starting to spend more. Germany, for example, proposed a huge fund for infrastructure and energy. The EU is also loosening its spending rules and increasing defense budgets. Some experts think this could actually boost Europe's economic growth a bit each year, which would mean better profits for European companies. Some even think European companies might see faster profit growth than US companies in the next few years because of this spending.
🇨🇳 Asia and Trade Wars: Asia was the weak spot. China's economy showed some signs of trouble, with a survey suggesting its manufacturing activity might have shrunk in April after a couple of months of growth. This seemed to be a direct result of the US tariffs. Asian stock markets took a hit on the tariff news, which dragged down the overall emerging markets index. Basically, tariffs and trade tensions hurt growth in Asia and its markets, which then affected returns in emerging markets globally.
✅ The bottom line
Early 2025 reminded us that markets can freak out quickly – but they can often bounce back just as fast. The swings felt scary, but history tells us that just sticking with your investments usually pays off. Major stock markets are pretty much where they were a few months ago, while economies and company earnings are still moving forward. For long-term investors, that wild week in April just reinforced an old lesson: stay invested and let compounding do its thing. As some experts say, "get invested and stay invested" because the most volatile times often have the biggest market gains. By sticking to your plan, you avoid missing those big up days when the "fear" fades and markets recover.
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SP:SPX
Sources: Recent market reports and data including the April SATRIX 2025 market newsletter “Once Again, Volatility Blinked and Fear Lost., nasdaq.com, reuters.com, ishares.com, insight.factset.com, reuters.com, iol.co.za
Fundamental Analysis
Gold Price Analysis May 7Yesterday's D1 candle continued to be a FULL candle with a 100 price increase. At the beginning of the day, the market opened with a bearish price gap, showing that the market also wants to cool down and today.
Gold is sideways in the range and is running a corrective downtrend.
The support zone for BUY strategies is around 3371, this is the EMA 34 of the h1 frame and is partially supported by the trendline. The next notable area is 3352, which is the old candle wick area and also the support area of yesterday's European session.
The two SELL areas are around 3402 and the Gap opening area is 3423.
Bullish Breakout Defies Trade Uncertainty and Global TensionsOANDA:XAUUSD Gold remains firm near $3,333, holding a bullish structure after a breakout above multi-year resistance. While short-term pullbacks persist, geopolitical tensions and a Fed pause continue to support safe-haven demand. Trump's refusal to ease China tariffs dampens trade optimism, further boosting gold's appeal. Key support lies around $3,333 and $3.273.
Resistance : $3,414 , $3,474
Support : $3,333 , $ 3,273
GBP/USD Pressure Mounts on Weak UK DataThe GBP/USD currency pair faced downward pressure on Wednesday, largely due to disappointing data from the UK’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This index showed a contraction in private sector business activity for April, signaling potential challenges in the UK economy. As a result, the Pound Sterling weakened against its major counterparts during European trading hours, reflecting growing concerns among investors about the economic outlook.
As the day progressed, the focus shifted to the US Dollar (USD), which was buoyed by increasing optimism regarding easing tensions between the United States and China. Investors reacted positively to news surrounding potential diplomatic efforts and economic collaborations, leading to a stronger USD and further pulling the GBP/USD pair lower. This shift in sentiment highlights how geopolitical developments can significantly impact currency markets.
Interestingly, the price action in the GBP/USD pair reached a notable Weekly Supply zone. This area has historically acted as a resistance level, and despite the current bearish trend, many retailers remain bullish on the Pound. This divergence in sentiment suggests that traders are closely monitoring the situation for signs of a reversal. Given the current conditions, there is speculation that the pair could experience a turnaround as it interacts with this important price level.
Overall, the dynamics between the GBP and USD underscore the ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange market, driven by economic data and geopolitical events. Moving forward, market participants will likely keep a close eye on upcoming indicators and developments that could influence the trajectory of this currency pair, particularly in light of the recent fluctuations and the current positioning within the Weekly Supply zone.
Weekly chart 6B1!
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BoE Poised to Cut Rates — Will Sterling Hold the Line?📌 The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% today, as inflation continues to ease and global risks weigh on growth. With the rate move largely priced in, market focus shifts to Governor Bailey’s tone and future guidance. GBP/USD trades near 1.3300, showing consolidation after failing to breach April highs.
Resistance : 1.3417
Support : 1.3259, 1.3123
What’s America's Real Goal in a Possible India–Pakistan War?We are nearing the end of the petro-dollar era. The power balance of the new world order will be defined not by oil, but by the strategic resources essential for AI, electric vehicles, and cutting-edge technology.
Throughout the 20th century, the U.S. maintained its global dominance by controlling access to oil. From the Middle East to Latin America and Africa, wherever oil was found, the U.S. was there.
But today, the focus has shifted to rare earth elements, lithium, copper, and other strategic minerals.
Trump’s 2025 move to buy Greenland wasn’t a diplomatic joke—it was a signal. Behind-the-scenes deals in Ukraine for rare earth deposits tell the same story: whoever controls these "white gold" assets will lead the tech-driven world.
Now enters Pakistan, with mineral-rich lands spanning over 600,000 km², nearly three times the size of the UK. Experts estimate its underground reserves to be worth $8 trillion.
In Balochistan's Rekodik field alone, there are 12 million tons of copper and 20 million ounces of gold, with a copper purity of 0.53%, well above global standards. In the north, newly discovered lithium reserves could be a game-changer for the EV revolution.
This is no longer just about resources—this is about deciding the future balance of global power.
#BTCUSDT:Price Moving Well From $88,000 to $96,000,Next $128,000Bitcoin has moved well from our last idea of $88,000 to $96,000. However, a small correction is expected, which could be a good point to enter a swing trade. This could take the price to a new record high of around $128,000.
We have three targets, but each can be set based on your overview. The last three candles are not clear, so it’s best to wait for price to have a clearer indication of its next move.
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PEPE Ready for a 20% Bounce, Targeting 0.00001070Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌
All previous targets were nailed ✅! Now, let’s dive into a full analysis of the upcoming price potential for Pepe 🔍📈.
PEPE looks set for a short-term rally, with a potential 20% upside, targeting 0.00001070. The meme coin is currently sitting at a crucial support zone, making it a prime spot for a breakout. 🚀 A strong bounce from here could drive significant gains in the coming days.📚🙌
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
PEPE is primed for a short-term rally with a potential 20% gain, targeting 0.00001070, as it's currently sitting at a key support zone. 📚🎇
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest hours crafting valuable ideas, and your support means everything—feel free to ask questions in the comments! 😊💬
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Is this the perfect time to buy Bitcoin? Hello,
While the significant market correction since January 2025 has left many feeling fearful, we believe this presents a perfect opportunity for those with a long-term investment horizon. The recent pullback in asset prices, particularly in the cryptocurrency space and equities, has created an attractive entry point for seasoned investors.
President Trump's ongoing commitment to positioning the United States as the global capital for cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin as a key component of the nation's reserves, reinforces the enduring fundamental strength of this digital asset. Despite the short-term volatility, Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain robust, supported by this high-level governmental endorsement .
Since its peak in January, Bitcoin has experienced a correction exceeding 25%, bringing it to levels that we view as an ideal accumulation zone. Our technical analysis further confirms this perspective, as the cryptocurrency approaches a critical upward trendline, suggesting that buyers may soon step in to drive a resurgence. Additionally, the MACD indicator is on the cusp of a bullish zero crossover, providing additional confirmation of an impending rebound.
For patient, forward-thinking investors, we strongly recommend initiating or increasing Bitcoin positions at these current prices. By adopting a disciplined, long-term approach and weathering the near-term fluctuations, you can position yourself to capitalize on the substantial upside potential as Bitcoin's trajectory aligns with the supportive stance of the U.S. government.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
HOOD daily chart: breakout or fakeout? Key zone approaching.Robinhood's stock has formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish reversal. The price has broken above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $44.00, suggesting further upside potential. Next targets are $48.40, $52.79, $58.22, and $67.00. RSI and MACD indicators confirm bullish momentum.
Fundamental Factors:
Robinhood continues to show revenue and profit growth, supporting positive investor sentiment. The company is expanding its services and attracting new users, strengthening its market position.
Scenarios:
Main scenario: continued rise to $48.40, then to $52.79 and higher.
Alternative scenario: pullback to $39.71 with potential decline to $36.00.
Euro Holds Ground as German Output SurgesGermany’s March Industrial Production surprised to the upside, jumping 3.0% MoM vs. 0.8% expected, signalling a rebound in Europe’s economic engine. However, EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.1300 as markets shift focus to Fed policy signals and upcoming trade talks. On the chart, key support at 1.1280 is holding, a bounce from here could open room toward 1.1370/1.1500 if sentiment shifts. Keep an eye on macro cues and potential breakout momentum.
Resistance : 1.1374, 1.1558
Support : 1.1281, 1.1190
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 8th May 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Unemployment Claims
Analysis:
-No bottom wick on daily candle
-Looking for price to retest 0.382-0.5 fib level
-Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3310
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Correction Coming?S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Is the Correction Coming?
SP500 Reached the target of $5,680 - $5,800 and is going into correction along with Bitcoin 🤔.
Before:
After:
➖ The S&P 500 could fall to the 5100–5177 range due to the following fundamental factors:
FOMC Meeting on May 7: Expected rate hold and potentially hawkish rhetoric from Powell could amplify fears of rate hikes, hitting growth stocks.
➖ Trade War: Uncertainty in U.S.-China negotiations and risks of new tariffs threaten supply chains and corporate profits.
➖ Weak Economy: GDP contraction (-0.3% in Q1), recession fears, and weak PMI data fuel pessimism.
➖ Corporate Earnings: Disappointing guidance from key companies (e.g., Apple, Tesla) could trigger sell-offs.
➖ Sentiment on X: Bearish sentiment reflects market caution.
➖ Global Risks: Retaliatory tariffs and rising gold prices signal a flight from U.S. assets.
Assumption: If the Fed on May 7 emphasizes inflation risks and delays rate cuts, and tariff news remains negative, the S&P 500 could break support at 5500 and reach 5100–5177 within 1–2 weeks, especially amid technical selling and market panic.
Is Dogecoin gearing up for a breakout toward $0.18?Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌
All previous targets were nailed ✅! Now, let’s dive into a full analysis of the upcoming price potential for Dogecoin 🔍📈.
Dogecoin is nearing a key support level that has historically provided strong price stability.
A short-term rebound of at least 20% is likely, with potential upside targeting the $0.18 resistance zone. This level marks a significant barrier and could shape the next major price direction.📚🙌
🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨
Dogecoin is bouncing off a key support and could see a quick 20% rally toward the major $0.18 resistance, which might decide its next big move.📚🎇
Give me some energy !!
✨We invest hours crafting valuable ideas, and your support means everything—feel free to ask questions in the comments! 😊💬
Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
4/30/25 - $pins - I like the setup in to $meta tn4/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PINS
I like the setup in to NASDAQ:META tn
- quick one here
- i like the setup in to NASDAQ:META tn. if NASDAQ:META "misses" and stock down big, i can second-order just buy that dip and lose money here
- if NASDAQ:META beats (my expectation/ and by beat i mean expectations, guidance etc. etc. just not headlines) this drags whole sector higher and NYSE:SNAP , NYSE:PINS get dragged along
- what i like about the $25C's for NYSE:PINS next week exp. is you can likely pick up on both the underlying and also IV increase, the goal would be to monetize this tmr, even if it's a 10-15% improvement on the C's.
- 10 bps position, for context. i consider it good R/R but nothing i'd bet the bank on. just try to take these if/when.
V
Bitcoin a Technical Summery technical summary based on what you're describing for BTCUSDT on the 4H timeframe:
Forecast from Mr Martin Date 05 May 2025
Current Setup:
Pattern: Two-sided consolidation/pattern (likely symmetrical triangle or range)
Key Support: ~89,000 USDT
Key Resistance: ~95,000 USDT
Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
If price holds above 95K and confirms breakout: Next target: ~98,000 USDT
Above 98K, could test psychological levels like 100K.
Bearish Breakdown: If price falls below 89K:nExpect a retest or quick rebound toward resistance (~95K).
You may see more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis Thanks
Thinking and practical skills for winning in the 3360-3400 rangeAffected by the news, gold fell sharply at the opening. Successfully won. According to the trading strategy, we gave gold a wide range of fluctuations in the 3360-3400 range, which will not change much. It can be operated within the range during the day. The trading strategy analysis is accurate, and the key points are accurately grasped to enter the market, which brought us good returns during the day. The short-term rhythm is accurately grasped! Brothers who followed the trading plan should have also made very good profits. 🍻🍻🍻
NVIDIA Breaks Out - Is a Bigger Rally Coming?NVIDIA Breaks Out - Is a Bigger Rally Coming?
NVIDIA has broken out of a bullish triangle pattern, signaling that it might be ready to climb higher. In my view, the bottom was reached at 86.00, as even market pressures from Trump couldn't push it down further.
NVIDIA seems to be waiting for more details on the US-China trade deal before making a stronger upward move.
If positive developments emerge, it could trigger a bigger bullish wave, lifting the stock even higher.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
SAGAUSDTNow is the time to buy and hold with low risk.
Target: 0.70
Stop-loss: Weekly candle close below 0.17
I'm just sharing my personal opinion to help us all better understand the market’s potential.
Always do your own research before investing — don’t rely solely on my view as a beginner, or anyone else's, even top analysts.
No one can predict the future with certainty.
Wishing peace and clarity to everyone.