Get started

Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY shows a bearish setupUSD/JPY shows a bearish setup, both in terms of technical patterns and fundamentals.​ Technical: Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.​ Key levels 140-142 break below, then 135-137. Fundamental: Strengthening the yen - BOJ might raise rates twice, and possibly inflation will remain around 3% as recent wage hikes fuel inflation Weakening the Dollar - falling U.S. Treasury Yields possibly to 3.5% range and below, Trump's intentions to weaken the dollar to make exports competitive and imports expensive. Note: Last time, Trump handed over to Biden with DXY at around 90, and the current direction is towards the same.
Short
by DonsTrading1M
1
Nasdaq Enters Correction Territory Do we go Deeper Monthly analysis done on the NQ with the ambition to connect with current price activity and gauge a deeper technical understanding on if this is just the start of a bigger correction for the year ahead . Tools used in this video Standard Fib , TR Pocket , CVWAP/ PVWAP Incorporating PVWAP and CVWAP into trading strategies allows for a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics used to assess trading performance and market trends. Date and price range and trend line . Some research below regarding the previous correction that I reference the technicals to in the video . In November 2021, the Nasdaq reached record highs However, concerns over rising inflation, potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and supply chain disruptions led to increased market volatility. These factors contributed to a correction in the Nasdaq, with the index experiencing notable declines as investors reassessed valuations, particularly in high-growth technology stocks. VS Today March 2025 Correction: As of March 2025, the Nasdaq Composite has faced another significant correction. On March 10, 2025, the index plummeted by 4%, shedding 728 points, marking its third-worst point loss ever, with only earlier losses during the COVID-19 pandemic surpassing this. This downturn has been attributed to several factors: Economic Policies: President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has unsettled markets, raising fears of a potential recession Inflation Concerns: Investors are closely monitoring upcoming consumer-price index (CPI) reports to gauge inflation trends, as higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, exacerbating stock market declines Sector-Specific Declines: Major technology companies, including Tesla, have experienced significant stock price declines, contributing to the overall downturn in the Nasdaq Comparison of the Two Corrections: Catalysts: The November 2021 correction was primarily driven by concerns over rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes. In contrast, the March 2025 correction has been influenced by geopolitical factors, including new tariff announcements, and ongoing inflation concerns. Magnitude: While both corrections were significant, the March 2025 correction has been more severe in terms of single-day point losses. The 4% drop on March 10, 2025, resulted in a loss of 728 points, marking it as one of the most substantial declines in the index's history. Investor Sentiment: Both periods saw increased market volatility and a shift towards risk aversion. However, the recent correction has been accompanied by heightened fears of a potential recession, partly due to inconsistent government messaging regarding economic prospects. In summary, while both corrections were driven by concerns over inflation and economic policies, the March 2025 correction has been more pronounced, with additional factors such as new tariffs and recession fears playing a significant role.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by SJTRADESFUTURES
2
S&P500 - What's next - Tariffs , Interest Rate decision? As of March 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant volatility, influenced by President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Scenario 1: Upside Potential Towards All-Time Highs The S&P 500 has recently shown signs of recovery, with a 0.6% rise on Monday following a 2.1% surge on Friday, marking its best performance since Trump's re-election. This rebound suggests that, despite earlier corrections, investor sentiment may be improving. ​ If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming meeting, it could signal confidence in the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. Such a stance might encourage further investment in equities, potentially propelling the S&P 500 towards its all-time highs. Additionally, some analysts believe that the market's recent correction is a healthy adjustment, and with improved earnings revisions and seasonal strength, a continued rally is plausible. ​ Scenario 2: Downside Risk Towards the 5,000 Support Level Conversely, the aggressive tariff policies introduced by President Trump have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and potential slowdowns in economic growth. UBS analysts project that if the U.S. implements a 60% import tax on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports, the S&P 500 could end next year at 5,200, an 11% decline from its recent record close. ​ Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that the current tariff plans could lead to a 5% drop in the S&P 500 in the coming months, as increased costs may squeeze corporate profit margins. If the Federal Reserve responds to these inflationary concerns by maintaining or even raising interest rates, borrowing costs could rise, potentially dampening consumer spending and business investment. Such developments might exert downward pressure on the S&P 500, bringing it closer to the 5,000 support level.​ Summa Money Our conclusion. The S&P 500's trajectory in the near term is intricately linked to the outcomes of trade policies and monetary decisions. While the market has demonstrated resilience, the dual forces of tariff-induced economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance will play pivotal roles in determining whether the index ascends towards new highs or retreats to key support levels. In these volatile times, it is definitely a tough time to predict how the market would move , so this is why we are looking into the different options as how things would pan-out in the upcoming months in regards to the S&P500! Positive outcome - Enter here with a target just below the ATH at 6,000 points, with your stop loss being above the bottom at 5,125 points Negative outcome - Entere here with a target around the bottom at 5,000 , with a stop loss around the resistnace 5,750 I am interested to hear out your thoughs on this analysis and overall the idea behind whats happening with the U.S. economy and what would be the reaction for the S&P500!
SP:SPX
by DG55Capital
XAUUSD H6 Idea Gold Prices— a Warning About Global Uncertainty - Gold prices just hit a record high, soaring past $3,085 per ounce in March 2025. That’s not just a number—it’s a warning sign. Investors aren’t piling into gold for no reason. They’re reacting to a world that feels more uncertain by the day. - The U.S. has imposed heavy tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, triggering trade tensions that are shaking global markets. Inflation is still higher than expected, climbing to 2.8% in February, making traditional investments riskier. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and Treasury yields are dropping, pushing investors toward gold as a safe bet. Add to that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and it’s no surprise that gold is surging. Every new crisis just makes it more attractive. This isn’t just a temporary spike. Experts warn that the worst effects of these trade policies haven’t even hit yet, and if inflation keeps climbing, the global economy could be in for a rough ride. Gold isn’t just going up—it’s flashing a warning. It’s telling us that investors don’t trust what’s coming next. And if history is any guide, they might be right.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by GOLDFXCC
AUD and NZD: WTH? RBNZ now in focusRisk aversion intensified on Friday, sending the Australian dollar down 4.56% and the New Zealand dollar 3.53% lower. The declines followed a move by US President Donald Trump to impose a 10% tariff on imports from both Australia and New Zealand. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed there would be no retaliation, noting the US represents less than 5% of Australia’s export market. New Zealand, with a higher 12% exposure, also ruled out countermeasures. For the New Zealand dollar, markets will now be focused on this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, where a 25-basis point rate cut is widely expected. Barring further tariff news, this could be the most important event determining whether this sell-off continues.
by BlackBull_Markets
JetBlue Airways (JBLU) – Technical Analysis 1WJetBlue shares have broken a key weekly trendline, reinforcing a bearish outlook. After breaking support at $5.21, the price is heading toward $4.52 and potentially $3.41. Technical indicators confirm the weakness: RSI shows declining momentum, MACD signals a bearish crossover, and EMA 50/200 indicate sustained selling pressure. Fundamentally, the airline sector faces macroeconomic instability, rising Fed rates, and volatile fuel prices. A close below $5.21 will confirm the downtrend, targeting $4.52 and $3.41, while a recovery above $6.44 could signal a potential rebound.
NASDAQ:JBLUShort
by TotoshkaTrades
Bitcoin ready for a Bullish Broadening Wedge Breakout! Bitcoin is in a bullish broadening wedge pattern! Bitcoin tested key diagonal trendline support (on log scale) as marked by yellow arrows! Trump's inauguration on January 20th, 2025, marked the local top, and now I expect the Trump tariff day event on April 2nd, 2025, to mark the local bottom, which can lead to a massive move to the upside in the coming weeks and months! I overlaid the Sept 2023 breakout fractal to show how bullish breakouts can lead to the fib targets near the yellow magnets on chart in the coming months! COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sshussaini
High Risk, High Reward: Shorting ATH in a Bullish Copper Market.Copper just broke above its all-time high, triggering my short entry at 5.3010. While the macro trend is undeniably bullish, past price action has shown that each major high was followed by aggressive selloffs. This might not be the case this time – but that’s exactly why we have a stop-loss in place. This is a tactical counter-trade: not about fighting the trend but playing a potential rejection from a psychological and technical key zone. Let’s see if history rhymes or the red metal keeps melting resistance! Technicals: • Daily timeframe breakout above ATH triggered the short at 5.3010. • Strong vertical rally into major supply – parabolic move often cools down. • Previous ATH levels have consistently attracted heavy selling. • If price invalidates with a continuation above 5.61, the setup is out. • Volatility around this zone is expected – precision and SL management are key. Fundamentals: 1. Trump’s Proposed Copper Tariffs: • Tariffs of up to 25% could disrupt global trade flow and introduce price instability. • Market already priced in a bullish narrative, so any delay or uncertainty could spark a correction. 2. Panama’s Cobre Mine Shutdown: • The mine accounts for 1% of global supply, and uncertainty around reopening may already be priced in. • The government is holding off public visits, which adds operational risk but no clear bullish resolution yet. 3. China Smelter Closures: • While bullish in nature, these are known factors – any shift or reversal from China could cool the demand-side speculation. 4. Overbought Sentiment: • Prices surged rapidly, creating a gap between LME and NY copper prices, reaching record spreads. • Speculative exhaustion could trigger a short-term pullback or deeper correction. Risk-Managed Play. Let’s see if this time is different – or just the same old Copper story in a new macro wrapper. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
VANTAGE:COPPERShort
by AR33_
ARBUSDT: What Happens Next Could Shock ManyYello, Paradisers! Are you watching this key level hold by a thread? The market is giving us signals, but most traders are too distracted to see them. If you're not careful here, you’ll be on the wrong side of the next big move. 💎ARBUSDT is currently trading below both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, confirming a strong bearish bias in the market. The trend remains in a clear markdown phase, with price action continuing to respect the descending channel, and no clear signs of bullish reversal just yet. 💎We’re approaching a moderate resistance level around $0.32 has already shown signs of weakness if price fails again at this area, it will likely confirm that sellers are still dominating, increasing the probability of a renewed leg down. 💎If the market rejects at current levels, the first key support to watch is around $0.2847, which could be hit quickly. However, the real danger lies below. A breakdown beneath the $0.2847 zone would expose the market to significant downside pressure, opening the path for a much deeper correction. 💎With ARB trading below the 200 EMA, we must remain cautious. The trend remains bearish, and any short term rally into resistance is more likely to present a shorting opportunity than a bullish breakout. 💎Still, if the market manages to close decisively above the $0.35 mark, it could shift the structure and momentum, targeting $0.37 and higher in the short term. Until then, the bias remains with the bears. Stay focused, Paradisers. Be the hunter, not the hunted. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
2
XAUUSD Monthly Outlook – April 2025🎯 Market Context: Gold is currently trading in uncharted territory — sitting at all-time highs, right inside a Monthly Premium zone, just above the previous BOS level from 2011. This is significant institutional terrain. 📌 Key Monthly Levels: 🧊 Major Resistance Zone: 3,135–3,168 → This is a premium zone where price is likely to face profit-taking or distribution. 🔵 Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 2,750–2,900 remains unfilled. 🪙 Last CHoCH and BOS: Confirmed bullish structure. Market has broken all historical ceilings. ⚖️ Equilibrium Zone: Around 2,400–2,500 → could act as a magnet in long-term pullbacks. 💎 Unmitigated OBs and Strong Lows: Still open way below 2,000 — long-term reversion zones if a macro bearish cycle begins. 🧠 Market Psychology: We are clearly in the euphoria/distribution stage. Monthly RSI is likely overbought (to be confirmed on chart), making bulls cautious for the first time in months. Smart Money might be unloading positions subtly or looking to trap late longs.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
EUR/GBP Analysis Double Bottom Breakout Toward TargetOverview of the Chart This chart displays a EUR/GBP daily timeframe setup, highlighting a Double Bottom Pattern, a well-known bullish reversal formation. The pattern consists of two consecutive lows at a similar price level, followed by a breakout above a key resistance zone. This setup suggests a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. Technical Analysis Breakdown 1. Double Bottom Formation (Reversal Signal) Bottom 1: The first low was established after a prolonged downtrend, where the price found support and bounced higher. Bottom 2: Price revisited the same support area but failed to break lower, indicating that sellers are losing strength and buyers are stepping in. A double bottom pattern signals that the asset is forming a strong base and is likely to move higher after breaking the neckline (resistance level). 2. Support and Resistance Levels Support Level (~0.8322): This level acted as a demand zone, preventing further downside. It marks the price area where buyers accumulated positions, leading to a reversal. Resistance Level (~0.8500): This level previously acted as a supply zone, where sellers controlled the price. A breakout above this level is crucial to confirm the bullish trend continuation. 3. Breakout Confirmation & Retest Expectation The price successfully broke above the resistance zone, confirming a bullish reversal. A potential retest of the broken resistance (now turned support) could occur before further upside movement. Traders often wait for this retest to confirm that the breakout is genuine before entering a position. 4. Price Target Projection Based on the measured move strategy, the expected target is calculated by measuring the height of the double bottom pattern and projecting it above the breakout zone. Target Price: 0.8742, aligning with historical resistance levels. 5. Stop Loss Placement Stop loss at ~0.8322 (below the double bottom support). This ensures risk is managed in case of an invalid breakout or a false move. Trading Plan & Execution Strategy 📌 Entry Strategy: ✅ Breakout Entry: Buy after the breakout above resistance. ✅ Retest Entry: Wait for a pullback to the previous resistance (now support) before entering. 📌 Risk Management: 🔹 Stop Loss: Placed below the recent support at 0.8322 to limit downside risk. 🔹 Take Profit: First target at 0.8742 based on the double bottom structure. 📌 Market Outlook: A successful breakout and bullish momentum could push prices toward the target. If the price fails to hold above the breakout zone, a deeper retracement could occur before continuing higher. Conclusion The EUR/GBP pair has formed a bullish double bottom reversal pattern, signaling a potential uptrend continuation. The key levels to watch include 0.8500 (resistance turned support) and 0.8742 (target projection). Traders should monitor price action around the breakout zone for confirmation and consider risk management strategies before entering a position.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold will continue to rise at the opening!From the 4-hour market trend, the support below is around 3012-17, and the short-term suppression above is 3045-56. The technical side needs to rebound and repair, and keep the idea of ​​​​going long when it falls back. Then turn around and sell at the right time! I will remind you of the specific operation strategy, so pay attention to it in time. Gold operation strategy: Buy gold when it falls back to 3012-3017, target 3045-3055;
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by HarveyAckerman
Gold Weekly Analysis: Is This Manipulation at Play?Gold followed my analysis last week, reaching yet another all-time high as anticipated. The bullish momentum remains strong; however, given the consistent break of all-time highs, I now expect a pullback. While we may see some further upside, I anticipate a bearish weekly close, prompting me to look for sell opportunities. Additionally, I believe we could be entering a range, with the current highs representing potential manipulation. If this is the case, we may have set a temporary high for at least the next week or two. Traders if you found this post useful than give it a boost!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by omz_zz
EUR/JPY Falling Wedge Breakout | Bullish Potential Ahead🔍 Chart Overview: EUR/JPY – Daily Timeframe This chart illustrates the price action of the Euro against the Japanese Yen and highlights a Falling Wedge Pattern developing over several months. This is a classic bullish continuation/reversal setup, supported by key technical levels. 📐 1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern that occurs when the market consolidates between two downward-sloping trendlines. Characteristics Seen in the Chart: Converging Trendlines: The upper (resistance) and lower (support) boundaries are both sloping downward, indicating a narrowing price range. Volume (not shown) usually decreases during the formation, followed by a surge on breakout. Multiple Touch Points: The price action respects both boundaries multiple times, confirming the pattern's validity. 🏛️ 2. Key Levels ✅ Support Level (Demand Zone): Marked around 156.000 – 158.000 Multiple bounces from this area, indicating strong buying interest. Aligned with the lower wedge trendline and historical price reaction zones. 🚫 Resistance Level (Supply Zone / Breakout Zone): Around 164.500 – 166.000 Price repeatedly failed to break this level, confirming it as a strong supply area. Confluence of horizontal resistance and the upper wedge boundary. 📊 3. Trade Setup 💼 Entry Strategy: Confirmation Buy: Enter a long position upon a daily candle close above the wedge resistance (around 166.000). Aggressive traders may consider an earlier entry near the wedge’s support with a tight stop. 🎯 Target: The projected target is 172.962, calculated based on the height of the wedge pattern added to the breakout point. This aligns with a previous swing high area, serving as a logical profit-taking zone. 🛑 Stop Loss: Positioned at 155.576, just below the key support zone. This allows the trade room to breathe while protecting against a full pattern failure. ⚖️ 4. Risk Management Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Target around 172.962 and Stop Loss at 155.576 offer a favorable RRR of approximately 2.5:1 or more, depending on entry. Position Sizing: Use appropriate lot size based on your account risk tolerance (e.g., 1-2% of equity per trade). 📅 5. Timeframe Outlook Medium to Long-Term Setup: Since this is a daily chart, the trade may take weeks to months to fully play out. Patience and proper trade management are essential. 🔎 6. Additional Notes Retest Opportunity: If price breaks out, look for a retest of the resistance zone as new support before continuation to the upside. Fundamental Factors: Keep an eye on EUR and JPY economic data, ECB and BoJ policy announcements, and global risk sentiment, which can influence the pair. 🧭 Professional Takeaway This is a textbook bullish falling wedge pattern within a well-defined technical structure. The chart provides: A clear pattern breakout level, Strong historical support/resistance zones, A defined risk management plan, And a realistic price target based on technical projection. If you are a swing trader or position trader, this setup offers a high-probability opportunity with favorable risk-reward dynamics—provided a breakout is confirmed.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Nasdaq Approaches Bear Territory Amid Escalating Trade TensionsMarket Decline: The Nasdaq Composite has fallen 20% from its December record high, approaching bear market territory. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have also experienced significant drops, marking their steepest weekly declines since March 2020. ​ Trade Tensions: The downturn is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions. The U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, prompting China to retaliate with a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, effective April 10. This escalation has heightened fears of a global trade war. Recession Concerns: In response to these developments, J.P. Morgan has increased the probability of a global recession to 60%, up from 40% previously. ​ Market Movements: Support Levels and Potential Retracement: The Nasdaq's 20% decline suggests it's testing critical support levels. While technical analysis might indicate a potential for a short-term retracement or consolidation at these levels, the prevailing market sentiment, driven by ongoing trade disputes and recession fears, could limit any substantial recovery.​ Outlook: Given the current geopolitical and economic climate, a continued downward trend is plausible. However, markets are inherently volatile, and any developments in trade negotiations or economic policies could influence future movements.​ Disclaimer: Please remember that market predictions are speculative. It's essential to conduct thorough research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ChainAssetsCapital