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Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD: Bearish Outlook – Targeting 1.03630 & Below 📊 Market Structure & Key Levels EUR/USD is currently rejecting a key supply zone (1.0450 - 1.0480), showing strong signs of continued downside pressure. The pair is in a bearish trend, with price action confirming lower highs and lower lows, as seen in the Prime Market Terminal charts. 📉 Key Levels to Watch: Supply Zone: 1.0450 - 1.0480 (Strong resistance & liquidity zone) Demand Zone: 1.03630 - 1.03219 (Institutional liquidity target) Extended Bearish Target: 1.02687 (Deep liquidity grab area) 🔍 Trade Setup: Bearish Bias Towards Key Support Levels 📌 Entry: Sell between 1.0450 - 1.0480 🎯 TP1: 1.03630 (Liquidity Zone) 🎯 TP2: 1.03219 (Institutional Liquidity Grab) 🎯 TP3: 1.02687 (Extended Downside Target) ❌ SL: 1.05150 (Above Key Resistance) 📉 Why This Trade? (Prime Market Terminal Analysis) ✔️ Bearish Market Structure – The 1D & 4H trend remains bearish, confirming a downward trajectory. Supertrend is bearish, and price is trading below the 72 EMA & 288 EMA, showing weak bullish momentum. ✔️ Liquidity Targets Identified – Market depth analysis from Prime Market Terminal reveals a lack of strong buy orders above 1.0450, suggesting that sellers dominate. ✔️ Volume Profile Analysis – The visible range (VPVR) highlights a high-volume node at 1.03630, making it a strong area for price to seek liquidity. ✔️ Commitment of Traders (COT) Data – Institutional positioning indicates an increase in short contracts for the EUR, aligning with the bearish trend. ✔️ Order Flow & Market Depth – Prime Market Terminal shows institutional sellers stacking sell orders at 1.0450, while liquidity pools rest below 1.03630 and 1.03219, making these ideal targets for price. 📰 High-Impact News to Watch ⚠️ HICP Flash Inflation Data (EUR - March 3, 2025) – Any deviation from expectations could drive EUR volatility. ⚠️ ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD - March 3, 2025) – A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen USD and drive EUR/USD lower. ⚠️ Fed's Musalem Speech (March 3, 2025) – A hawkish stance could accelerate EUR/USD downside pressure. 📌 Final Thoughts: Follow the Trend & Manage Risk! EUR/USD remains firmly bearish, with liquidity resting below 1.03630. The confluence of institutional positioning, bearish trend confirmation, and market depth insights support a sell bias. Watch price action at key levels and manage your risk accordingly! 🔥 What’s your bias? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🔥
Short
by LDForex_
XAUUSD: 3/3 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 2892-2930, support below 2850 Four-hour chart resistance 2876-2892, support below 2832 One-hour chart resistance 2876, support below 2860 Gold news analysis: Last Friday, gold technical pressure 2884 mark further ushered in a very weak unilateral adjustment downward trend, Asian, European and American markets successively under pressure to fall and fluctuate downward, the US market accelerated downward to break through the 2840 mark to reach 2832 and began to rebound, closing near 2860, closing with a decline for two consecutive trading days, short-term gold price encountered resistance at the 2950 mark ushered in a daily level adjustment, today's Asian market opened under the influence of weekend news, gold price quickly rushed up to pierce the 2876 mark, and then fell into a shock consolidation. Gold operation suggestions: Today's upper short-term resistance is 2876-2892. Any rebound before the daily level breaks through and stabilizes at 2892 is a short-selling opportunity. Pay attention to the lower low support around 2825-30. Overall, rely on this range to participate in high selling and low buying, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Sell: 2870near SL: 2875 Sell: 2892near SL: 2897 Use small size to control risk
TVC:GOLDShort
by ActuaryJ
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for another decline?!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range. Donald Trump has issued an executive order on digital assets, directing the Presidential Task Force to move toward establishing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve that will include XRP, SOL, and ADA. He emphasized, “I will ensure that the United States becomes the cryptocurrency capital of the world.” Trump further added, “We are making America great again!” He also highlighted Bitcoin and Ethereum as other valuable digital assets that will be central to this reserve, stating, “I love Bitcoin and Ethereum!” Following this announcement, Bitcoin responded positively to the news of the executive order. On February 28, BlackRock made headlines after Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $80,000. Amid speculation, some claimed that the company had sold $500 million worth of Bitcoin, playing a significant role in the price decline. However, a closer analysis contradicts these claims. Data shows that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) still holds 577,919 BTC. While this fund saw an outflow of 2,274 BTC on February 27 and a total of 10,595 BTC over the past week, this does not imply that BlackRock itself is selling Bitcoin. These ETF outflows result from investors selling shares of the fund. In such scenarios, the ETF is required to sell Bitcoin proportionally to meet liquidity demands. Therefore, these movements are not directly tied to BlackRock’s own decision to offload BTC but rather reflect investor behavior. Contrary to circulating rumors, BlackRock is not exiting Bitcoin; in fact, it has been increasing its exposure. Recent financial filings reveal that the company now holds a 5% stake in MicroStrategy (MSTR), up from 4.09% in September 2024. Additionally, it has been announced that BlackRock plans to integrate its Bitcoin ETF into the firm’s $150 billion portfolio. This move suggests that rather than pulling out of the market, BlackRock is strengthening its position in Bitcoin-related assets. Ultimately, this situation highlights how quickly rumors and speculation can spread during market downturns, but a detailed analysis of the data always provides a clearer picture of reality. Meanwhile, Ronaldinho, the former Brazilian football star, has announced plans to launch his own cryptocurrency. He also warned his fans to stay vigilant against fraudulent meme coins.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
$LIT: EV's Lithium-Powered ETF – Charging Up or Running on EmptyAMEX:LIT : EV's Lithium-Powered ETF – Charging Up or Running on Empty? EV demand is up 35% in 2023, and lithium prices are up 8% in 2025 so far. But AMEX:LIT is at $40.82, down from last year. Is it time to buy, hold, or sell? Let's dive in. (1/9) Good morning, everyone! ☀️EV demand is up 35% in 2023, and lithium prices are up 8% in 2025 so far. But AMEX:LIT is at $40.82, down from last year. Is it time to buy, hold, or sell? Let's dive in. 🔍 (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Current Price: $ 40.82 💰 • Sector Trend: EV sales globally strong (35% growth in 2023, IEA) 🌟 It’s volatile, with EV growth as a tailwind! ⚙️ (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Market Cap: Approximately $ 1.37B (based on $ 40.82 price and 33.5M shares, per Apr 30, 2024, data) 🏆 • Holdings: 40 stocks, top include Albemarle, Tesla (per Global X ETFs) ⏰ • Trend: Lithium demand tied to EV penetration, per IEA data 🎯 Firm, riding the battery wave! 🚀 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • EV Demand: Continued rise in 2025, per general expectation and IEA trends 🔄 • Lithium Prices: Mixed, with spot prices varying; ETF at $ 40.82 reflects market conditions 🌍 • Market Reaction: Reflects current market dynamics, no specific Mar 3 data 📋 Adapting, EV surge drives interest! 💡 (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Oversupply: Fears may cap lithium gains, per industry reports 🔍 • Competition: New battery tech could shift demand, per industry reports 📉 • Volatility: Lithium prices historically swing, per Reuters 2023 data ❄️ Tough, but risks loom! 🛑 (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • EV Growth: Demand for lithium batteries rising, per IEA 2023 data (35% global sales increase) 🥇 • Diversification: 40 holdings across mining, battery tech, per Global X ETF 📊 • Sector Leader: Exposure to Albemarle, Tesla, per Global X ETF 🔧 Got fuel in the tank! 🏦 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: Price volatility, current price down from last known, oversupply fears 📉 • Opportunities: EV sales growth, potential lithium price recovery based on demand, per IEA trends 📈 Can it capitalize on demand? 🤔 (8/9) – 📢 AMEX:LIT ’s at $ 40.82, EV demand climbing, your take? 🗳️ • Bullish: Price to rise with EV surge 🐂 • Neutral: Steady, risks balance ⚖️ • Bearish: Oversupply or other factors cap gains 🐻 Chime in below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 AMEX:LIT ’s EV demand drives potential 📈, but current price at $ 40.82 reflects market caution. Volatility bites, yet dips are our DCA gold 💰. We grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust?
AMEX:LITLong
by DCAChampion
Let us Swing GBPUSD !!!Hello everyone, happy new week and a happy new month of March to you all !!! First of, fundamentals are heavy on the pounds this week, coupled with the fact that this is non-farm payrolls week. (Fundamentals). Secondly, there was a market Structure shift last week which is signaling more bearish momentum. This setup overall has a stop loss of less than 40 pips from the H4 Order Block but if you need a tighter Stop, you definitely can go sharpen the entry in a lower timeframe. Use proper risk and money management and do not over-leverage your account. Most especially, do your own analysis !
Short
by LaBOSS_FX
NAS100 - Nasdaq, won't it go below 20k?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. If the index rises towards the suggested zones, we can look for the next Nasdaq sell-off. The composition of investors’ financial assets from 1990 to 2025 reveals shifts in the allocation of equities, bonds, and cash. Currently, the share of equities in investment portfolios has reached an all-time high of 54%, indicating a growing preference for the stock market among investors. Conversely, the share of bonds and cash has declined to 18% and 13%, respectively, suggesting reduced interest in holding fixed-income assets and liquidity. At present, more than half of investors’ financial assets are concentrated in equities, which could reflect optimism about the market’s future growth. This situation calls for increased caution from the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, as a significant portion of American households’ surplus income is now directed toward stocks. As a result, any downturn in the U.S. stock market could have more severe consequences for the public than before. Scott Bassett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, responded to a recent survey indicating that Americans want President Donald Trump to focus more on reducing inflation. He stated that he is confident consumer price inflation in the United States will decline throughout the year. In an interview with CBS and Face the Nation, Bassett defended Trump’s economic policies, emphasizing that the president is pursuing a comprehensive approach that includes tariffs, deregulation, and a gradual reduction in energy costs. Meanwhile, following weaker-than-expected preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February and a decline in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, investors are now pricing in approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for this year. This projection is 10 basis points higher than the forecasts from the December dot plot. Market pricing indicates that traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, particularly after the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. However, with Trump ramping up tariff threats against key U.S. trading partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico, outlining a clear economic roadmap has become more challenging. Tariff impositions pose a serious risk of reigniting inflation, prompting many Federal Reserve officials who have recently expressed their views to adopt a “wait and see” approach. This week, market attention will once again turn to employment data, as investors eagerly anticipate the release of the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Other key events include the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimates for the Eurozone and the ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP Employment Report and ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday will be closely watched, with economists expecting another interest rate cut.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD "The Gold vs U.S Dollar" Metals Market Robbery Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🚀 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the XAU/USD "The Gold vs U.S Dollar" Metals Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (2830.00) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or Swing high or low level should be in retest. 📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (2830.00) swing Trade Basis Using the 2H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: Primary Target - 2780.00 (or) Escape Before the Target Secondary Target - 2710.00 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Global Market Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Quantitative Analysis, Positioning: XAU/USD "The Gold vs U.S Dollar" Metals Market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend., driven by several key factors. ⭐☀🌟Fundamental Analysis Gold prices are influenced by various fundamental factors, including: - Inflation: Rising inflation can lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge against inflation. - Interest Rates: Lower interest rates can make gold more attractive to investors, while higher interest rates can reduce demand. - Central Bank Policies: Central banks' decisions on gold reserves and monetary policies can impact gold prices. - Global Economic Conditions: Economic downturns or crises can increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. ⭐☀🌟Macro Economics Macroeconomic factors that can impact gold prices include: - GDP Growth: Slowing GDP growth can lead to increased demand for gold. - Unemployment Rates: Rising unemployment can increase demand for gold. - Inflation Rates: Rising inflation can lead to increased demand for gold. ⭐☀🌟Global Market Analysis Global market trends can also impact gold prices: - Stock Market Performance: Weakness in the stock market can lead to increased demand for gold. - Currency Fluctuations: A weaker US dollar can make gold more attractive to investors. ⭐☀🌟COT Data Commitment of Traders (COT) data can provide insights into market sentiment: - Non-Commercial Traders: An increase in long positions by non-commercial traders can indicate bullish sentiment. - Commercial Traders: An increase in short positions by commercial traders can indicate bearish sentiment. ⭐☀🌟Intermarket Analysis Intermarket analysis involves analyzing the relationships between different markets: - Correlation with Other Assets: Gold's correlation with other assets, such as stocks and bonds, can impact its price. - Commodity Prices: Changes in commodity prices, such as oil and copper, can impact gold prices. ⭐☀🌟Quantitative Analysis Quantitative analysis involves using mathematical models to analyze gold prices: - Technical Indicators: Technical indicators, such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), can provide insights into gold's trend. - Statistical Models: Statistical models, such as regression analysis, can help identify relationships between gold prices and other variables. ⭐☀🌟Market Sentimental Analysis Market sentimental analysis involves analyzing investor attitudes and sentiment: - Bullish Sentiment: Increased bullish sentiment can lead to higher gold prices. - Bearish Sentiment: Increased bearish sentiment can lead to lower gold prices. ⭐☀🌟Positioning Positioning involves analyzing the current market position: - Long Positions: An increase in long positions can indicate bullish sentiment. - Short Positions: An increase in short positions can indicate bearish sentiment. ⭐☀🌟Next Trend Move Based on the analysis, the next trend move for XAU/USD is uncertain. However, if inflation concerns rise, or if there's a significant increase in bullish sentiment, gold prices could move higher. Short-Term: Bullish: $2,900-$3,000, Bearish: $2,700-$2,600 Medium-Term: Bullish: $3,200-$3,500, Bearish: $2,400-$2,200 Long-Term: Bullish: $3,800-$4,000, Bearish: $2,000-$1,800 ⭐☀🌟Overall Summary Outlook The overall summary outlook for XAU/USD is neutral. Gold prices are influenced by a complex array of factors, and the current market position is uncertain. Investors should monitor inflation concerns, interest rates, and global economic conditions to make informed decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Thief_Trader
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 3, 2025 GBPUSDThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, started the new week on a weak note and has already cancelled out most of Friday's gains to more than a one-week high. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to post relative gains amid expectations of a less aggressive easing policy from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, concerns over US President Donald Trump's retaliatory tariffs and their impact on the UK economy may keep GBP bulls away from new bets. In addition, geopolitical risks could limit deeper USD losses and limit GBP/USD gains. Meanwhile, signs that the disinflation process in the US has stalled, reinforcing the case for the Fed to take a wait-and-see approach to future interest rate cuts, could also serve as a tailwind for the USD. This could help to further contain GBP/USD and warrant some caution before positioning for a resumption of the recent uptrend from levels below 1.2100, or the yearly low reached on 13 January. The main focus will be on the closely watched monthly US employment data on Friday. The widely-reported Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure will shape expectations on the path of the Fed rate cut and drive demand for the dollar in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2610, SL 1.2560, TP 1.2690
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bitcoin / TetherUS Hello and greetings to dear companions! This is an updated analysis of Bitcoin. Based on the discussions we've had and the previous analysis we conducted for the entire crypto market, we have observed that Bitcoin has reached the bottom of its daily channel after a severe decline! Now, we expect Bitcoin to reach the $105,000 range, similar to our previous analysis, and then either retrace or rise, which we can support with confirmation. Our previous scenario remains intact, and our target range is still valid, as we have excellent daily liquidity. In terms of price analysis, $102,500 is the level that convinces buyers that Bitcoin is bullish, leading them to enter buy positions. Sellers, upon seeing this decline, are looking to exit, and we will likely see market consolidation around this level until we determine the winner of this confrontation. I will elaborate on the analysis. Our current scenario is primarily based on ideal selling conditions. In the specified range, we will exit the market and wait for the market to make its decision. Based on this analysis, if our trend line breaks, we will swiftly take action to sell, as this serves as a very strong confirmation of the fake rally, and we will likely see further declines! We are preparing to observe the market reaction at the price of $73,000 with confirmation and act to capture an excellent swing. Key Points Resistance (Daily): 102500 Support (Daily): 69388 Ideal Time to Sell with Confirmation: 105250 & 109588 Wishing you all success! Fereydoon Bahrami A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex) Risk Disclosure: Trading in the cryptocurrency market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
by fereydoon1199
Bitcoin Daily Analysis must read caption Bitcoin Daily Analysis: BTC continues to show volatility as it navigates key support and resistance levels. Traders are closely watching price action for potential breakouts or corrections. Technical indicators, such as RSI and moving averages, suggest possible momentum shifts, while on-chain data reveals investor sentiment. With macroeconomic factors influencing market movements, staying updated on volume trends and liquidity zones is crucial. Will Bitcoin maintain its bullish momentum, or is a retracement on the horizon? Keep an eye on critical price levels and market catalysts for the next big move!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by QueenTraderFX
ECB rate decision and US NFPs awaits the ailing rand Since my previous idea on the ZAR the SA budget speech ended in shambles after a failed attempt to increase VAT for 15% to 17% and the latest SA CPI figure crept higher to 3.2% in January. In terms of international relations, the vibe between the US and SA has continued sour which also does not bode well for the ailing rand. The above-mentioned factors strengthened the support rate at 18.30 and the pair has climbed back above the 50-day MA at 18.59. A host of strong data prints from the US and a bounce in the DXY also did not do the rand any favors at the back end of last week. The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the DXY to find strong footing which will not be rand positive. Additionally, a strong NFP print will also support a stronger dollar. Technically the pair does seem to be overbought on shorter timeframes however on the daily the RSI does have room to move higher which could allow the rand to slip further towards the psychological resistance at 19.00 if the above-mentioned events play out against the rand’s favor. A failed break below the 50-day MA will be the first indicator that the rand’s early year recovery has hit the wall, paving the way for a re-test of 19.00.
Long
by Goose96
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
ECB rate cut and NFPs await the DXYThe DXY dropped to fresh yearly lows at 106.13 since my previous idea which does not bode well for my string of ideas calling for the DXY to break above 110.16. The DXY however managed to climb back above the blue support range between 107.12 and 107.50 at the back end of last week off the back of a stronger than expected durable goods orders m-o-m print of 3.1% while the 4Q2024 GDP print and the m-o-m Core PCE price index landed in line with expectations at 2.3% and 0.3%, respectively. The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the DXY to find strong footing which will allow it to re-test the 50-day MA at 107.98. Most of the focus will however be on the US non-farm payroll print for February. The NFPs print for January came in slightly lower than expected and another weak print on Friday will have investors question the validity of Powell’s statement that the US economy is strong and that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, which I expect will be dollar negative. A strong print however will allow the DXY to hold levels above the 50-day MA and test levels closer to the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 108.97.
TVC:DXYLong
by Goose96
TOP CALL but for how long who knows? Not me, but i'll bet on it.Willing to take a bet that unless we push this violently lower, its the temporary top in Tech and Equities, people seem to be moving to the shiny new thing (crypto) and I expect some nice volatility to work with, and I want to take it to the downside for the FUTURES LEAP COMP for FEB. This is what I'm using to make that call. Looking to take swings at good entry points, while I day trade the micros for ideas on swing entries and scalps. Oil moves down one more time, lower than the previous move. Equities go higher, sell, everything sells, crypto goes back faster and then up way quicker drawing in all of that money. I don't think this is the start of a prolonged bear, and IF I get my trade, I'll update after the event with my long entry when IT comes ;D GOOD LUCK
TVC:MOVEShort
by whitekidspaz
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Monday, 3rd March 2025)Bias: Bearish USD News(Red Folder): -ISM Manufacturing PMI Analysis: -Price closed strong bearish on weekly -Looking for continuation to the downside as no bottom wick on weekly candle -Potential SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe -Pivot point: 2890 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDShort
by HM_fxtrading
Geopolitical Uncertainty Supports Gold PriceXAUUSD Prices Steady Amid Geopolitical Tensions 1. *Gold price*: Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around $2,870, attracting some buyers. 2. *Reason for increase*: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainty are supporting the precious metal. 3. *Upcoming data*: Traders are waiting for the US February ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which may impact gold prices. Geopolitical Tensions 1. *Russia-Ukraine conflict*: The conflict continues, with US President Donald Trump canceling a minerals deal with Ukraine. 2. *Oil refinery fire*: A fire broke out at an oil refinery in the Russian city of Ufa, but the cause is unknown. Economic Data 1. *US inflation*: The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.5% YoY in January, in line with expectations. 2. *Core PCE*: The core PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, climbed 2.6% YoY in January. 3. *Federal Reserve*: The US Federal Reserve may adopt a cautious stance on further rate cuts due to the inflation data. Market Implications 1. *Gold prices*: Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine could boost gold prices, while a stronger US dollar might cap the upside. 2. *Investor sentiment*: Investors are closely monitoring developments surrounding Russia and Ukraine, which may impact market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by elitetrader9090