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Fundamental Analysis

Altseason is cancelled for now. But Should resume soon.If you're interested in altcoins, be sure to check out my ideas. I’m closely tracking CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D and CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS , and you’ll find plenty of valuable insights in those analyses. So, what’s going on? My CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS prediction played out — May was bullish. But was it the real altseason? Not quite. The true altseason typically begins at the end of the Bitcoin cycle, and we’re not there yet. Right now, we’re seeing price action reminiscent of December 2024. Bitcoin maximalists are aggressively buying BTC during a time it should be correcting, which is inflating BTC dominance and crushing any momentum for an altseason. They appear to be using altcoins as exit liquidity to pump BTC, especially as retail investors hesitate to buy Bitcoin above $100K. What’s next? The daily MACD suggests we’re entering a correction phase that could last around two weeks. A drop toward $1.2T is likely, as there's a major order block between the current level and that target. However, the real support lies below $900B — my "green box" — which I view as the ideal buy zone. Historically, entries in this green box have offered 2x–3x returns on high-volatility altcoins from the top 100, especially in sectors like memes, DeFi, and AI. I expect altcoins to correct into that zone in the coming weeks — keep an eye on it. DYOR (Do Your Own Research). #Crypto #Altcoins #Bitcoin #BTC #BTCdominance #Altseason #CryptoMarket #CryptoTrading #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #DeFi #MemeCoins #AIcoins #AltcoinSeason #DYOR
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Short
by CryptoNikkoid
1
BITCOIN Bitcoin (BTC) Correlation with DXY, Bond Yields, and Interest Rates 1. Bitcoin vs. Dollar Index (DXY) Inverse Correlation: Bitcoin and DXY typically move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar (DXY↑) reduces demand for risk assets like BTC, while a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts BTC as a hedge against fiat depreciation. DXY↑: Investors flock to USD safety, pressuring BTC. DXY↓: Capital rotates into BTC as a risk-on asset or inflation hedge. 2. Bitcoin vs. Bond Yields Evolving Relationship: Historical Inverse Link: Rising 10-year Treasury yields often pressured BTC (e.g., 2022 Fed hikes). Recent Decoupling: In 2025, BTC and 10-year yields hit a record-low correlation (-0.8), signaling BTC’s independence from traditional bonds. Key Drivers: Inflation Hedge: BTC gains appeal as bonds struggle with rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields at 5.07% in May 2025). Portfolio Diversification: Investors increasingly treat BTC as “digital gold,” reducing bond allocations. 3. Bitcoin vs. Interest Rates Fed Policy Impact: Rate Hikes: Strengthen USD (DXY↑) and bond yields, pressuring BTC Rate Cuts: Weaken USD and lower yields, boosting BTC’s appeal Real Yields Matter: BTC thrives when real yields (nominal yield - inflation) fall, as seen during stagflationary environments. Summary Table Correlation Relationship Key Drivers BTC ⇄ DXY Inverse (DXY↑ → BTC↓) Risk sentiment, USD strength as safe haven BTC ⇄ Bond Yields Increasingly negative (2025) Inflation hedging, portfolio diversification BTC ⇄ Interest Rates Indirect via DXY and yields Fed policy, real yield dynamics Critical Trends in 2025 BTC-DXY Decoupling: BTC’s rally to $105,268 and hit 111k amid DXY volatility shows growing independence. Bond Market Shift: Investors rotate from Treasuries to BTC amid fiscal deficits and inflation. Fed Policy Pivot: Expected rate cuts could weaken DXY and bolster BTC’s bullish case. Conclusion BTC-Yields: Negative correlation strengthens BTC’s role as a bond alternative in inflationary regimes. Macro Strategy: Use DXY and bond yields as leading indicators for BTC’s risk-on/risk-off cycles. Trade Implications: A DXY drop below 98.4 could signal BTC bullish momentum. Rising bond yields may temporarily pressure BTC but reinforce its long-term hedge appeal. #btc #bitcoin #crypto
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Comprehensive Bitcoin Analysis and Market Trend Prediction 🧠 Comprehensive Bitcoin Analysis in 4-Hour Timeframe 📅 Date: May 30, 2025 ✍️ Analyst: Mahaam Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture. As of May 29, 2025, it is trading around 105,543 USD, approximately 5.7% lower than its recent peak of 111,970 USD on May 22. The daily trading volume is around 32.47 billion USD, and Bitcoin's market capitalization has reached 2.16 trillion USD. 📊 Technical Analysis: 📈 Price Trend and Moving Averages: The Bitcoin chart indicates that after a strong rally starting in late April 2025, the market is now undergoing a price correction. The 20-day moving average is currently around 108,017 USD, and the 50-day moving average is around 97,500 USD. The current price remains above both moving averages, indicating a sustained medium-term bullish trend, though the growing distance from the 20-day MA may reflect weakening upward momentum. 📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 53, signaling an exit from the overbought zone. It has dropped from levels above 70 in early May, showing increased selling pressure. However, it remains in a neutral range, with no indication of entering the oversold zone (below 30). 📉 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is currently declining and has crossed below the signal line, indicating a short-term sell signal. The MACD histogram is also turning negative, suggesting a decrease in upward momentum and rising short-term selling pressure. ⚖️ Long/Short Ratio: Data from CoinGlass shows the BTCUSDT long/short ratio on Binance has reached its highest level since the beginning of the month. Currently, 6 out of 10 accounts hold long positions. This imbalance could lead to a long squeeze, forcing traders to close long positions and increasing selling pressure. 📊 Volume: Trading volume has decreased in recent days, indicating reduced buyer interest at current price levels. In the past 24 hours, approximately 650 million USD in long positions across the crypto market have been liquidated, with nearly one-third of that related to Bitcoin. 📍 Key Resistance Levels: • 109,300 USD (recent daily high) • 111,970 USD (all-time high) 📍 Key Support Levels: • 106,000 USD (Fib 23.6%) • 103,460 USD (Fib 38.2%) • 100,000 USD (key psychological level) 🧠 Fundamental Analysis: 🏦 Institutional Buying and Corporate Investment: One of the most significant recent developments is the announcement from Trump Media and Technology Group about raising 2.5 billion USD to invest in Bitcoin. Approximately 50 institutional investors participated, allocating 1.5 billion USD for common stock purchases and 1 billion USD for convertible bonds. This move aims to create a Bitcoin reserve for the company and could signal increasing institutional adoption. 📅 Bitcoin 2025 Conference: Held from May 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, the conference featured key figures such as Michael Saylor and U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Prominent analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out a pattern where Bitcoin's price tends to decline after each Bitcoin Conference. Based on historical data, the average post-conference drop is about 27%, which, if repeated, could push the price below 80,000 USD. 🔮 Price Forecasts by Leading Analysts: 📌 Adam Back (CEO, Blockstream): At least several hundred thousand USD in 2025, potentially up to 1 million USD if the U.S. implements a strategic Bitcoin reserve. 📌 Geoff Kendrick (Global Head of Digital Assets, Standard Chartered): 120,000 USD in H1 2025, 200,000 USD by year-end, citing stablecoins legitimizing the crypto market. 📌 Mike Novogratz (Founder, Galaxy Digital): Between 130,000 and 150,000 USD, driven by strong institutional inflows, a weakening dollar, and rising demand for digital assets. 📌 Cathie Wood (CEO, ARK Invest): 1.5 million USD by 2030, requiring a 58% CAGR over the next five years. 📌 Arthur Hayes (Founder, BitMEX): 250,000 USD by the end of 2025 if the Fed returns to quantitative easing. 🌐 Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Context: Trade tensions and tariff uncertainties continue to influence investor sentiment. A U.S. appellate court recently reinstated trade tariffs, while the government is appealing the previous decision that overturned them. Additionally, the self-imposed deadline for trade agreements is approaching on July 9. 🧭 Potential Scenarios: 🚀 Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin breaks the 109,300 USD resistance and holds above it, there is a possibility of retesting the all-time high at 111,970 USD. A breakout beyond that could pave the way toward the 120,000 to 130,000 USD range. 🔹 Supporting Factors: • Continued institutional and corporate investments in Bitcoin • Return of expansionary monetary policies by the Fed • Greater adoption and utility of stablecoins 📉 Bearish Scenario: If selling pressure continues and price drops below the 106,000 USD support level, further declines toward 103,000 USD and 100,000 USD are possible. If the psychological support at 100,000 USD fails, the next target could be around 90,000 USD. 🔻 Driving Factors: • Long squeeze due to high long/short ratio • Historical pattern of post-conference price drops • Increasing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty ✅ Conclusion: Bitcoin is at a critical decision point. Technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum and short-term correction risks. The long/short imbalance and historical patterns add to the possibility of a notable pullback. Nevertheless, strong fundamentals like growing institutional and corporate adoption (especially the Trump Media announcement) support a positive mid-to-long-term outlook. Leading analysts’ forecasts remain largely bullish, with price targets between 130,000 and 250,000 USD by year-end 2025. In summary, Bitcoin may face short-term selling pressure, but the mid- and long-term perspective remains optimistic. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels and adjust their strategies based on market reactions. 📚 Sources: The Crypto Basic CoinDesk Cointelegraph FX Empire Bitcoin.com News Reuters CoinGlass
Short
by Captain-MM8
SOLANASolana (SOL) Current Bias, Dollar Relationship, and Bitcoin Correlation 1. Solana’s Current Bias Bearish Pressure: SOL is trading near $160, down ~5% in 24 hours due to token unlocks, declining memecoin activity, and technical resistance at $187 . Key support levels: $158–$163 (50-day EMA) and $140–$142 (critical demand zone). A drop below $142 risks a deeper correction to $133 . Medium/Long-Term (2025–2026): Bullish Outlook: Analysts project SOL could reach $275–$500+ by late 2025, driven by institutional interest, ETF approval prospects, and network upgrades . 2. Relationship with the Dollar Index (DXY) Inverse Correlation: A stronger dollar (DXY↑) typically pressures SOL and crypto markets. Recent DXY surges have coincided with SOL’s 30% decline . Current DXY Context: Testing 98.4 (May 2025). A breakout above 101.99 could further weaken SOL, while a drop below 97.92 may revive bullish momentum . Fed Policy Impact: Expected rate cuts in 2025 could weaken the dollar, indirectly supporting SOL’s recovery . 3. Solana vs. Bitcoin (SOL/BTC) Mixed Performance: 30-Day Trend: SOL is up 10.98% against BTC, reflecting relative strength in altcoin markets . Recent Dip: SOL/BTC fell 5.75% in 24 hours to 0.001524 BTC, signaling short-term BTC dominance . Key Levels: Resistance: 0.001633 BTC (May 24 high). Support: 0.001524 BTC (current level); breakdown risks a test of 0.0014 BTC . Summary Table Factor Solana (SOL) Price (USD) ~$160 (down 5% in 24h) DXY Correlation Inverse (stronger USD = weaker SOL) BTC Correlation Mixed (recent gains vs. BTC, but short-term dip) Key Support $158–$163 (EMA), $140–$142 (demand zone) Key Resistance $187, $220, $243 2025 Bullish Target $275–$500 (institutional forecasts) Critical Factors to Watch Fed Policy: Rate cuts could weaken DXY, boosting SOL. ETF Developments: Approval odds for SOL ETFs may drive institutional inflows . Technical Breaks: A daily close above $183 could reignite bullish momentum toward $200–$210 . Network Activity: Declining memecoin trading volumes and MEV concerns pose short-term risks . Conclusion Short-Term: SOL faces bearish pressure from DXY strength and technical resistance, but the $140–$158 zone is critical for maintaining bullish structure. Long-Term: Bullish institutional forecasts and potential ETF catalysts support a $275–$500+ trajectory by late 2025. Bitcoin Influence: SOL’s recent outperformance against BTC may resume if altcoin markets rebound, but BTC dominance remains a headwind. Traders should monitor DXY trends, Fed rhetoric, and SOL/BTC technical levels for directional cues. #SOL #CRYPTO #BITCOIN
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Will BTC hold its price?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC. When we enter the four-hour interval, we can see how the BTC price has left the ongoing upward trend line at the bottom, and what's more, we can see how the current movement is creating a local downward trend channel in which the price is currently on the border of the previously created upward trend channel, which gives a strong support point. Here we can see how the current downward movement has entered the support circle that starts around $ 104,800 and ends around $ 102,200, this is the place where two conflicting channels have converged. If these supports do not hold the price, we can see a quick recovery to around $ 98,000, and then to the level of $ 93,900. Looking the other way, we can see that when the trend reverses, we first have resistance at $107,670, then a resistance zone from $110,000 to $111,700 is visible, at the border of two channels, and then resistance is visible around $113,800. On the MACD indicator, we can see a return to the downtrend, while on the RSI we return to the lower part at the lower border, which could potentially provide energy for a future upward movement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
BTC Macro View - Possible PullbackFailed breakout or just a pause? Bitcoin wicked above the 7-month range ($74k–$109k) and hit a new ATH at $112k—but the breakout lacked conviction: -3 Day candle did not close outside the range. It wicked above ATH and closed back inside, which often signals a failed breakout. -Volume on the breakout was low—not the kind of commitment you'd expect on price discovery. -Unless we reclaim the highs with conviction, the odds lean toward mean reversion or a deeper pullback, especially as macro risk increases (S&P weakness, renewed trade tension, credit rating concerns). S&P Correlation I was calling for a pullback on the S&P on May 16th in this Idea. -https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/CMKml8I3-Bearish-Divergence-Pullback-Pending/ -The S&P has already started fading off highs. -BTC kept pushing a bit longer—but may have just been lagging the risk-off shift. -Now both look vulnerable and possibly entering correction together. Macro Narrative Timeline March–April: Trump escalates tariff rhetoric → markets sell hard: S&P falls from 6,100 → 4,800 BTC dumps from $108k → $74k Mid-April–May: Trump pivots, talks trade deals → markets bounce: S&P rallies back to 6,000 BTC rips to $112k ATH Now at highs, bearish news flow returns: Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade Trump targeting EU and Apple with new tariffs S&P rolling over again BTC starting to follow This is narrative cycling: Scare → Ease → Pump → Re-scare near highs Short-Term Setup Macro structure is still bullish. But short-term risk is rising fast: -Bearish RSI divergence on the 4H chart -Failed breakout on the 3D, Low volume ATH push -Crowded longs getting chopped -BTC media coverage going vertical—endless bullish predictions across TV, headlines, social media -Media didn't talk about BTC when it was at $74k. They were loud now, at the highs. Fibonacci Retracement Levels from April 9 Low → $112k High 0.786 = $103,969 0.618 = $97,665 0.5 = $93,237 -Each level aligns with prior consolidation and offers strong technical context. -No need to guess. We will watch volume + structure at each zone. -These are prime areas to accumulate spot. -No leverage. No chasing. Let it come to you. -This is what Bitcoin is—accumulate pullbacks, hold, survive the chop. -After this correction, I believe we push back to ATH and into price discovery. Whale Psychology Trap (my thoughts on it) Recently a Hyperliquid whale built a record breaking $1B+ BTC long on a defi exchange, drew in a massive herd to follow, then flipped short over the weekend after closing the position. -Now that crowd is likely emotionally tied to their longs—feeling betrayed, stubborn, and unwilling to cut on a pullback. -Red flag: we now have whales publicly influencing the herd with precision. Not a bullish short-term signal. Final Thoughts We’re seeing alignment across: -Failed breakout on 3D -Overheated retail sentiment (even though retail thinks the reverse, all you hear right now is "RETAIL IS NOT EVEN HERE YET") -Public Whale traps in motion -Media pushing euphoria the past two weeks -Macro headwinds slowly creeping back in at the most convenient time to pullback -BTC remains in a macro uptrend. But this is not a healthy breakout yet. P.S. This breakdown is mainly for traders. But let me be clear: -The smartest approach to Bitcoin is still simple—accumulate and hold spot. -Given BTC’s position in a world of debt-soaked economies, eroding fiat trust, and centralized monetary control, it's far riskier to have none than to hold through volatility -The wealthy, the powerful, the largest corporations — they’re starting to understand this reality -Your job? Keep buying dips and holding long-term. Use macro views like this to: -Take profits from overextended markets (U.S. equities, alts, etc.) -Time bigger BTC adds when fear returns But if you own spot BTC? Don’t sell it. Ever. Trade other assets. Stack sats. And if BTC ever hits $1M/coin... then sure—do whatever you want
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by HunterMorris
Trade Idea:XAUUSD SHORT ( SELL STOP )🔍 Multi-Timeframe Analysis 📉 H4: • Price is compressing below the 20 and 50 SMAs. • Recent attempts to break higher failed to sustain; MACD is slightly bearish, hinting momentum is fading. • Consolidation after the big push suggests potential for another leg down if support breaks. 🕒 M15: • Strong bounce into resistance, now stalling at the underside of the previous structure (~3315–3320). • 20 SMA is curling down and converging with the 50 SMA, signaling a potential momentum shift. 🕒 M3: • Price just lost short-term bullish structure after failing to break 3318. • Flattening and slight downward curl in the 20 SMA. • Volume shows a slowdown on the bounce and heavier selling earlier in the day — signs of weakness. ⸻ ✅ Trade Idea Type: Sell Stop Entry: 3308 Stop Loss: 3322 Take Profit: 3273 ——— 🧠 Why This Setup Works • This is a momentum breakdown trade: placing a sell stop just below short-term support (3308) to catch the shift in momentum if price breaks lower. • Price already rejected the high around 3318; if it pushes below 3308, it confirms that sellers have taken back control. • There’s clean room down to 3273 — a previous reaction zone and recent demand level — offering a good risk-to-reward. ⸻ 🛡️ Risk Management & Execution • SL to BE Rule: Move stop loss to break-even once price reaches 3293 (15 points in your favor, 1R). That’s the halfway point to target and right above a small reaction zone that could cause a pullback. • Invalidation Window: If price moves above 3325 before activating entry, cancel the trade idea. That would invalidate the lower-high structure and suggest momentum has shifted bullish again. ⸻ ⏱️ Session Timing & Considerations • NY session opens at 6:30 AM Pacific (PT). • Ideally, this trade should activate and move by pre-New York to early NY session. If price stalls or consolidates near the entry level for too long into the session (after 9:30–10:00 AM PT), consider canceling or reassessing. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by KeN-WeNzEl
Gold price rebounded. Strategy is coming.Gold rose yesterday under the stimulus of risk aversion; gold did not continue the upward trend today, which means that the risk aversion sentiment of gold has been digested. The 4-hour moving average of gold formed a dead cross, and MACD also formed a dead cross. Then gold is likely to maintain the morning support position near 3290 for oscillation. I think we can continue to short after gold rebounds. After the opening of the US market, the rise of gold has been under pressure at the 3310 line and cannot break through. Gold rebounded under pressure at 3310 and continued to short on rallies. The market situation is changing all the time. We cannot always use the same trading strategy. If the price fails to rise, we will implement a short strategy; in line with the changes in the market, we can make profits faster. Operation strategy: Short near 3305, stop loss 3315, profit range 3270-3260.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid-1
Wayfair | W | Long at $34.62Wayfair $NYSE:W. Recession fears are valid. But long-term, once this company becomes truly profitable, this will be a multi-bagger. I won't go on much about the fundamentals because there are too many economic unknowns ahead, but from a technical analysis perspective, the historical simple moving average lines/area is repeatedly converging with the price and leveling out. Often, this means a change in directional momentum. There are no more open price gaps below the current price on the daily chart. Thus, at $34.62, NYSE:W is in a personal buy zone. Note: The price entering the teens in the near-term is a possibility. Targets: $40.00 $50.00
NYSE:WLong
by WorthlessViews
The volatility is an illusion, and gold is brewing major changesGold fluctuated downward in the Asian session on Friday, while it remained in the range of 3287-3303 in the European session. Although it tried to break through the short-term pressure level of 3300-3306 many times, it has never been able to stand firmly. I arranged to go long at 3288-3289 in advance, notified to enter the market at the point, and finally reached the target of 3303 perfectly, earning 15 points of profit! Quick, accurate and ruthless, with the right idea, profit-taking is as easy as drinking water! Therefore, it is recommended that we continue to pay attention to the short-term support of 3290-3285 below. If the price fails to break through the support range like in the early trading, you can consider trying to enter the long position. Given that today is Friday, the market volatility may be "demon-like", so you need to be extra cautious in operation and pay close attention to the changes in the market. At the same time, you must keep in mind the principle of "taking profits for safety"-lock in profits in time when you can see them, and don't easily bet on trends that you don't understand. If your current gold operation effect is not ideal, I hope my analysis can help you avoid some detours. Welcome to communicate at any time! Today, the monthly, weekly and daily lines closed simultaneously. At the same time, the PCE data will be released during the US trading session, and the market volatility may intensify. From a technical point of view, 3285 is also the key to long and short today. If gold does not break 3285 today, the strength of gold bulls is expected to continue, and there is still room for gold to move upward. If gold continues to fall and falls below 3285, then gold may begin to fluctuate in a large range. The upper resistance is in the 3320-3330 area, and the focus is on the 3335-3340 line of suppression. Pay attention to the 3290-3285 line of support below, and the key position below is in the 3280 area. If it breaks below the 3280 area during the day, the market is expected to fall again to the 3265-3250-3240 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel5
GOLD GC /GC GC1! XAU/USD: Arbitrage Oppertunity. Gold Futures (GC1!) – Breakdown Ahead? Arbitrage Opportunity Emerging 🔍 Daily Chart Analysis by Wavervanir International LLC ⚠️ Key Technical Observations: Descending Triangle Breakdown Risk: Gold has rejected resistance near $3,350 multiple times. The lower highs and horizontal support suggest a descending triangle structure. Projected Breakdown Zone: If $3,280 support fails, we could see a swift move toward $3,100 or even lower, near the $2,950 zone. Lower Trendline Magnet: Price appears to be gravitating toward a key trendline formed from April’s breakout, which aligns with the $2,950–$3,000 confluence zone. 💱 Arbitrage Opportunity: GC1! vs XAU/USD vs /GC There is growing dislocation among: GC1! (Gold Futures – COMEX) /GC (Front-Month Gold Futures) XAU/USD (Spot Gold) Watch for inefficiencies due to: 🔁 Hedging lag across timeframes (spot vs futures) 💰 Rate differential effects (carry cost, interest rates) 🌍 Currency mismatch in spot vs USD-settled futures If the spot-futures basis widens unjustifiably, a short GC1! / long XAU/USD setup could exploit mean reversion. Advanced traders might also consider calendar spreads (/GC Jun vs Aug) if volatility compresses. 📊 Probabilistic Outlook: Scenario Probability Commentary Breakdown Toward $2,950 55% Technical structure favors bears unless macro shifts occur. Bounce and Range Around $3,300 30% Compression before Fed/JOLTS/NFP may cause chop. Breakout Above $3,375 15% Requires macro catalyst—like Fed rate cut, geopolitical shock, or weak USD 🧠 Macro Factors to Monitor: FOMC & FedSpeak (June) – If rate cuts are delayed, gold could lose momentum. Real Yields (10Y TIPS) – Rising real yields = bearish gold. Geopolitical Tensions – Any flare-ups (Middle East, Taiwan) may flip sentiment fast. China/BRICS Demand – Gold import/export data could signal accumulation or slowdown. 💡 We’re monitoring these inefficiencies for tactical plays under the Wavervanir macro-arbitrage lens. Stay updated for real-time trade ideas and DSS-based execution. #Gold #GC1 #XAUUSD #FuturesTrading #MacroArbitrage #CommodityTrading #Wavervanir #RiskManagement
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Gold rebounds in the US market and continues to be short! 📊Comment analysis Gold rose yesterday under the stimulus of risk aversion, so gold did not continue to rise today, which means that the risk aversion sentiment of gold has been digested, and the 1-hour moving average of gold has also begun to turn downward and has not crossed upward, so the momentum of gold shorts has begun to increase, and gold rebounds and continues to be short. After gold surged, it has been under pressure at the 3310 line and cannot break through. Therefore, gold rebounds in the US market and continues to be short at highs under pressure at 3310. 💰Strategy Package US trading operation ideas: Gold 3304-3310 short, stop loss 3315, target 3280-3270-3260; ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the capital account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
1
/HE HE1! Macro Analysis: Lean Hogs Futures (HEM2025)🐖 Supply & Demand Dynamics Production Trends: The USDA forecasts 2025 U.S. pork production at 28.5 billion pounds, a 2.7% increase from 2024, driven by higher slaughter levels and improved litter rates . Export Outlook: Pork exports are projected to rise by 3% to 7.3 billion pounds in 2025, with strong demand from Mexico and South Korea offsetting declines in China and Japan . Domestic Demand: U.S. pork consumption remains flat, averaging 50 lbs per person annually, while beef and chicken consumption have increased . Oklahoma Farm Report 💰 Cost & Profitability Factors Feed Costs: Feed costs are projected to decrease by 13% in 2025, reaching a feed cost index of 87, due to lower corn and soybean meal prices . Producer Margins: Lower feed costs and stable hog prices are expected to improve producer margins, with average hog prices projected at $65 per cwt in 2025 . 🌍 Trade & Geopolitical Considerations Tariffs and Trade Disputes: Ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China, have led to a 125% tariff on U.S. pork exports, causing producers like Smithfield Foods to pivot to other markets . Export Diversification: U.S. pork producers are focusing on expanding exports to countries like Mexico, South Korea, and Canada to mitigate risks associated with trade disputes . Oklahoma Farm Report 📈 Technical Analysis Recap Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken above the descending trendline and reclaimed key Fibonacci levels (0.786 and 0.886), indicating bullish momentum. Target Zones: Immediate target at 101.600 (1.618 Fib extension), with further targets at 101.875 (1.786), 101.975 (1.854), and 102.225 (2.0). Support Level: Key support at 99.925; a break below this level could invalidate the bullish structure. 📊 Probability Assessment Scenario Probability Rationale Bullish Continuation 65% Supported by technical breakout, lower feed costs, and stable export demand. Sideways Consolidation 25% Potential due to flat domestic demand and global trade uncertainties. Bearish Reversal 10% Possible if key support at 99.925 fails or if export markets deteriorate further. 📌 Conclusion The Lean Hogs Futures market exhibits a favorable setup for a bullish continuation, supported by technical indicators and macroeconomic factors such as lower feed costs and stable export demand. However, traders should remain vigilant of potential risks, including trade disputes and domestic demand stagnation.
CME:HE1!Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Data is out. Gold is fluctuating.Information summary: On Wednesday, US time, the Trade Court ordered an immediate halt to tariffs; the next day, the Federal Court of Appeals immediately resumed the policy. At the same time, the Trade Court was required to respond by June 5, and the government by June 9. Tariff policies are back and forth, and it is difficult to figure out. In other words, don't expect the US government to come up with any good news. Today, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April was 2.6% in the previous value and 2.5% in the expected value. The expectation seen at the beginning of the week was 2.6%. Now the expectation is directly lowered. Is it to leave room for this announcement? If the increase is not higher than the previous value, it is not a significant increase, but it leaves room for interest rate cuts. For gold, the increase is not higher than the previous value, and the short position is limited. This mediocre data can directly provide a basis for speculation on the current economic situation in the United States. After yesterday's strong rise, with a very long lower shadow left on the middle track of the Bollinger Band, after stabilizing the middle track, the fast and slow lines further converged and flattened, indicating that the main funds are also hesitating. From this perspective, today's market may continue to fluctuate within the middle track. At the same time, the closing line is also the most critical, which is around 3285-90 near the middle track. Operation strategy: Today's trading needs to pay attention to the cycle suppression position of 3315-3330 on the upper side, and the cycle support level of 3385-3380 on the lower side. This range can be maintained for scalping trading. If the gold price breaks through strongly upward or downward, the new trend will be realized in a very short time, so traders need to make profits and stop losses in time.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
EURGBP Bullish Structure Analysis – Channel Breakout + Target🧱 1. Market Structure Breakdown EURGBP has been trading within a descending channel, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows, which indicates a short-term bearish trend. However, price action recently broke out above the upper boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential bullish reversal or trend correction. This breakout marks a significant structural shift in market behavior. 🔵 Old Structure: Bearish, confined within the channel 🟢 New Structure: Bullish breakout above trendline + key resistance zone 🧩 Implication: Change in directional bias; potential for long opportunities 📍 2. Breakout Confirmation The breakout was confirmed by: A strong bullish impulse candle that closed above the descending trendline Price sustaining above previous resistance (~0.8405) Increase in bullish volume at the breakout point (if volume indicator is used) This suggests that the breakout is genuine, not a false spike or liquidity grab. 🌀 3. Retest Phase – The Critical Zone After breaking out, the market is now pulling back to retest the previous structure. This is a textbook price action move: 🔄 What’s Being Retested? ✅ Upper boundary of the descending channel ✅ Major horizontal support/resistance zone (~0.8405–0.8415) ✅ Broken trendline from previous lower highs ✅ QFL base (Quasimodo level that was swept) ✅ 50% Fibonacci retracement of the breakout move This zone forms a multi-level confluence area, making it a strong support for potential long entries. 🔍 4. Key Technical Observations Element Description 📐 Descending Channel Defined the prior bearish structure. Breakout invalidates this bias. 🧱 Trendline Retest Acts as dynamic support; price currently sitting on it. 🔃 SR Flip Zone Old resistance (~0.8405) turned into support—critical level. 📊 Fib 50% Retracement Provides technical alignment with potential buying interest. 📌 QFL/Order Block Zone Historical demand was swept and now being respected again. 🎯 5. Target Levels & Trade Plan If the structure holds and the price responds bullishly from the current zone, the next levels of interest are: ✅ Primary Target – 0.8460 A clear supply/liquidity zone from previous structure highs Also aligns with psychological round number and Fib extension ⚠️ Interim Target – 0.8430 Previous intra-channel resistance level May serve as a short-term reaction point ❌ Invalidation Level A clean break and close below 0.8390 would invalidate the breakout structure This would reintroduce bearish pressure and signal a potential fakeout 🧠 6. Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice) Entry: Around 0.8405–0.8415 on bullish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candle, pin bar, break of minor downtrend) Stop-Loss: Below 0.8390 (beneath structure & invalidation point) Take-Profit 1: 0.8430 Take-Profit 2: 0.8460 This offers a high R:R opportunity if managed with proper confirmation. 🧭 7. Risk Management & Considerations Avoid entering prematurely without a bullish signal (e.g., pin bar, engulfing, RSI divergence). Monitor macroeconomic news—especially from BoE or ECB—as they can disrupt technical setups. Scaling into the position or using a split TP strategy can help protect profits. ✅ Conclusion This EURGBP setup is a textbook case of market structure trading: A well-defined channel breakout Followed by a clean pullback to structure With confluence across horizontal, diagonal, and Fibonacci levels If price respects this zone, bulls could drive toward 0.8460, offering a solid opportunity for traders who understand structure-based setups. 📌 Always wait for confirmation—structure gives us context, but entries need price action signals to minimize risk.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
Safe Entry ZoneFull Screen 1D Chart to get the General Direction Of Unity Stock Movement. You May lower Time to 1h to see Recent Dicretion Movement. The Stock Has Significate clear Resistances And Decent Support levels. For Support Levels: the 1h Green and 4h Green Zone are most signifacte support level sepcially in worse case scienario we visit the 4H its strongest support level. For Resistance levels: the Red 1h Zone P.High(Previous High) Line and Red 4h Red Zone acts as most significate Resistance level. At each Either Support and Resistance watch-out for Volume Selling/Buying with 15M TF. Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone: We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone. Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up. 2- How to Buy Stock: On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in. Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
NYSE:U
by Faisalzor