Fed Funds with 2yr, 10yr and 30yr TreasuriesChart recessions on a graph of Fed Funds with several Treasury issuances and charts of JPY, EUR, Gold DXY etc.
Enjoy.
Fundamental Analysis
long (buy) position on GBP/USDAscending Trendline: The most visible technical aspect is the upward sloping trendline. This indicates potential bullish momentum, suggesting the Pound is gaining strength against the Dollar. Traders often use trendlines to identify potential entry points in an ongoing trend.
Support Level: The trader has placed the stop-loss (SL) just below a recent low point, indicating they are using this low as a support level. If the price breaks this support, it would invalidate the bullish view.
Resistance Level: The take-profit (TP) is placed above recent high points, suggesting the trader is targeting a resistance level. If the price reaches this level, it would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
Risk-Reward Ratio: The distance between the entry and stop-loss compared to the distance between the entry and take-profit suggests the trader has calculated a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Fundamental Economic Factors (Hypothetical):
Positive UK Economic Data: If recent UK economic data (e.g., GDP, employment, inflation) has been stronger than expected, it could strengthen the Pound.
Hawkish Bank of England (BoE): If the BoE has signaled a more aggressive stance on raising interest rates to combat inflation, it could attract investment to the Pound.
Weak US Economic Data: Conversely, if recent US economic data has been weaker than expected, it could weaken the Dollar.
Dovish Federal Reserve (Fed): If the Fed has signaled a more cautious approach to raising interest rates, it could put downward pressure on the Dollar.
Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment could be favoring the Pound due to factors like political stability or positive news flow.
Interest Rate Differentials: If the interest rate differential between the UK and the US is widening in favor of the UK, it makes the Pound more attractive to carry traders.
Considerations for Publication:
Disclaimer: Always include a disclaimer that forex trading is risky and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Chart Clarity: If publishing, ensure the chart is clear and easy to understand.
Fundamental Context: Provide context for the fundamental factors that may have influenced the trade.
Risk Management: Emphasize the importance of using stop-loss orders and managing risk.
Educational Purpose: Frame the analysis as an educational example rather than a trading recommendation.
Time Sensitivity: Forex markets are dynamic, so the analysis may become outdated quickly.
Important Note: Without knowing the exact news and economic data at the time of the trade, this analysis is based on general assumptions. A thorough analysis would require looking at the specific economic calendar and news events at the time the trade was taken.
Trade Idea: XAUUSD LONG (BUY LIMIT) Technical Analysis
1. 1H Chart (Higher Timeframe Trend)
• Downtrend Reversal: Price was in a strong downtrend but is now bouncing off a key support near 2827-2830.
• MACD: Histogram is reducing bearish momentum, suggesting a possible trend reversal.
• RSI (14): Rising from oversold conditions (~54.89), indicating bullish momentum building up.
2. 15-Min Chart (Intraday Confirmation)
• Reversal Pattern: A sharp recovery from lows around 2849, forming higher lows.
• MACD: Bullish crossover with histogram turning positive, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI (12): Nearing overbought levels (~68.23), but still has room for continuation.
3. 3-Min Chart (Entry Timing)
• Pullback to Support: Price is consolidating after a strong breakout above 2862.
• MACD: Still showing bullish structure but a minor pullback is visible.
• RSI (10): Neutral at 50.89, meaning price is neither overbought nor oversold, ideal for a continuation entry.
Fundamental Analysis
• Gold Demand: Potentially rising due to economic uncertainty, with investors looking for safe-haven assets.
• USD Weakness: If upcoming economic data (e.g., inflation, job reports) indicate a slowing U.S. economy, gold could gain strength.
• Market Sentiment: If risk-off sentiment continues, gold could push higher.
Trade Execution
Position: Long XAU/USD
• Entry: 2865 (After minor pullback confirmation)
• Stop Loss: 2855 (Below recent pullback low)
• Take Profit: 2890 (Near previous resistance level)
• Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 2.5:1
Rationale
• The uptrend reversal is forming on the 1H and 15M charts.
• Momentum indicators (MACD & RSI) support a bullish move.
• Strong demand and potential USD weakness could fuel further upside.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
Looks Potentially like some relief ralliesLooking at the market holistically, it would appear like opportunity will present in DXY weakening, and metals again this week, looks like the week might play out as a relief rally for S&P and NASDAQ as both sentiment and fear are at extremes.
GOLD UPDATE ROUTE MAPI am currently analyzing the 4-hour timeframe of gold. As we know, there has been strong bearish pressure in the gold market over the past few days. Therefore, my focus will remain on bearish opportunities. On the higher timeframe, gold has broken its bullish trendline, and my selling area will be around this level, as seen on the chart. I will wait for the price to reach my key levels and either show bearish confirmation or any reversal signal so that I can plan my sell entry at my ideal level. Confirmation is very important. Let's see what happens.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction. Let's analyze more deeply in smaller time frame.
#XAUUSD 4H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
GBPJPY weekly analysis (Gbpjpy)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis
1. Breakout Above Resistance at 190.070
The chart suggests rejection from 190.070, but if price breaks and holds above this level, it could signal further upside momentum.
Instead of a bearish move, price could consolidate above 190.165 and push toward 191.003 or higher.
2. Strong Accumulation in the Support Zone (187.800)
The support area at 187.800 has already been tested multiple times, and each time, price has rebounded.
This could indicate a strong demand zone, meaning buyers are stepping in aggressively.
If buyers push price back to resistance and break through, a new bullish trend may emerge.
3. Liquidity Grab Below 188.000
The previous dip below 188.000 may have been a liquidity grab to stop out weak hands before a bullish reversal.
If this assumption holds, price may now aim for higher highs rather than another rejection from resistance.
4. Market Structure Shift
Instead of forming a lower high at resistance, a higher low formation could suggest an uptrend.
If price finds support around 189.000 instead of dropping to 187.800, a bullish continuation pattern would be confirmed
GBPUSD Monthly Bullish, Weekly Bearish March Bullish for GBPUSD but Bearish for the First week. Purely Price Action and Fundamental Analysis.
Upcoming Monthly/Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis:
1- World economy and US economy are slowing down and the fear of recession is here. This time the recession will be caused by both demand and supply. The last one was supply-based.
2- US politics is the definition of self-destruction: tariffs; throwing under the bus Europe, Canada, Mexico and all historic allies.
3- Inflation is up.
All these factors are bad news for equities and NQ.
4- Tax cuts is what investors and corporations are looking to boost up stocks and equities.
5- Next FED might provide free money (the printing machine) to address/delay the recession.
6- This week, we have key data and events.
Good news is good news for equities and vice-versa.
TA Analysis:
Monthly TF:
The monthly candle was a red candle but not really a bearish candle as no break happened.
From strictly TA analysis, nothing to do until price breaks either direction. But based on FA, I see price moving down to at least 18000 (38.2 fib).
Weekly TF:
NQ provided a bearish weekly close. However, price did not confirm a change of structure. Hence, bearers need to break and close quickly below 20529 to continue the down movement. Otherwise, price must go back to retest and grab liquidity at 21702.
My bias is with a direct continuation down.
Daily TF:
At daily TF, we've two scenarios:
1- A meaningful retrace to 21702 as price was unable to close below 20529 to grab liquidity from the previous swing high (orange circles).
2- A shy retrace to reflect the battle between buyers and sellers and a continuation down.
That's all for this upcoming Month/Week.
Wish you green pips! GL!
Bitcoin's 2025 Price Action Mirrors 2017 - Is History Repeating?Bitcoin Halving & The Trump Factor: A Historical Parallel
Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is eerily reminiscent of the post-halving rally of 2017. In both cases, BTC saw a prolonged accumulation phase before a massive markup period. What's even more intriguing is how macro-political events align: Trump was elected in November 2016 , just before BTC went parabolic in 2017, and once again, he's elected in November 2024 , right before Bitcoin enters its explosive post-halving markup phase. Could this be more than just coincidence?
Accumulation Phase Ends – The Markup Begins
From November 9, 2024 , to February 28, 2025 , Bitcoin was in a 107-day accumulation phase . This mirrors previous post-halving cycles, where BTC consolidates in the Green HPR band before entering the next stage. Now, it appears we are entering the Markup Phase, where I expect Bitcoin to rally towards $120K+ in the coming months.
Applying the 2017 Cycle to 2025
The 2017 bull run followed a 59:156:360-day cycle (Accumulation → Markup → Distribution). Using the same ratio and expanding it for 2025, I’ve projected a 107:280:646-day cycle , where:
✅ 107 days Accumulation (Completed!)
📈 280 days Markup (Just Beginning!)
📉 646 days Distribution & Declining (Post-Top Phase)
This fractal projection aligns well with historical price action, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating this structure.
BitBo’s Rainbow Regression Chart Confirms the Setup
Looking at BitBo’s Bitcoin Rainbow Halving Price Regression Chart , BTC briefly dipped into the blue band , just like in 2017’s first wave. However, in both cases, Bitcoin quickly recovered within days and launched into its Markup phase , which is exactly what we’re seeing now!
🔹 Key Takeaway: Bitcoin is following its historic halving cycle patterns, and if history continues to rhyme, the next 280 days could be a wild ride to six-figure BTC prices! 🚀
Don't forget,
Patience is Paramount
USDJPY CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHECK CAPTAIN This chart represents a USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) price analysis on the 1-hour timeframe from FXCM. It highlights key buy and sell zones with potential price movements.
Key elements in the chart:
1. Buyer's Zone (Support Area):
The pink-shaded region around 148.912 is identified as a buyer’s zone, suggesting that price may find support and reverse upwards.
2. Selling Zone (Resistance Area):
The yellow zone around 151.331 is labeled as a selling zone, indicating a strong resistance level where price may face rejection.
3. Price Projection:
The black arrow suggests a potential bearish move from the selling zone down to the buyer’s zone.
The blue arrow suggests an alternative bullish scenario, where price could break above the selling zone and continue upwards.
Conclusion:
This chart presents two possible scenarios for USD/JPY:
A bearish rejection from 151.331, leading to a drop towards 148.912.
A bullish breakout above 151.331, continuing the uptrend.
Traders should watch price action around these key levels to determine the next move.
It’s Like the Bitcoin Follows Our Predictions! 📉 In our previous post, we predicted Bitcoin would drop from 109K to 81K … And today? ✅ It bounced back from 81K to 94K , achieving a 10% gain!
🔥 Imagine if you had followed our recommendation—how much would you have profited by now?
💔 Unfortunately, those who missed our last post are now feeling the regret of a lost opportunity!
🎯 Don’t miss the next one! Follow us and turn on notifications so you never miss our upcoming predictions! 🚀
#Bitcoin #MissedOpportunity #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Crypto
$HNT Bullish Exaggerated Divergence on Daily RSIBeen accumulating a very large position of FWB:HNT
Bullish Exaggerated Divergence on the Daily RSI.
Price looks to have bottomed claiming previous lows.
Helium Mobile is one of the strongest IRL DePin projects 💯
$600m Market Cap is extremely undervalued compared to the rest of the industry.
BTCUSD SUCCESSFUL ANALYSIS COMPELLED This chart is a Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price analysis on the 1-hour timeframe from BITSTAMP. It shows a bullish prediction, indicating a potential price movement from a "BUY ZONE" to a "target win" level.
Key elements of the chart:
1. Buy Zone (Support Area):
The red-shaded area around 80,000 suggests a strong support zone where buying opportunities were identified.
2. Breakout Confirmation:
The price moved above the 84,120 resistance, confirming a breakout.
A strong bullish move followed, leading to a sharp price increase.
3. Target Win (Resistance Level):
The 95,122 level is marked as the target win, meaning the price was expected to reach this resistance level.
4. Price Surge & Prediction Success:
The price moved aggressively towards the target, indicating the analysis was successful.
This chart suggests that a buying opportunity was spotted in the Buy Zone, leading to a successful bullish trade toward the resistance target.
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Price Index (January/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC 0.3%
(January/2025)
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in January 2025, the same pace as in December, and in line with expectations.
Prices for goods increased 0.5%, following a 0.1% rise in December and prices for services rose at a slower 0.2%, after a 0.4% gain in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, slightly above the 0.2% gain recorded in the previous month, and also matching forecasts.
Food prices went up 0.3%, higher than 0.2% in December while cost of energy eased (1.3% vs 2.4%). On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, marking its first slowdown in four months. Similarly, core PCE inflation declined to 2.6%, its lowest level in seven months, from an upwardly revised 2.9%.
Bitcoin Wyckoff Schematic( First one got moderated) It seems as though BTC has just exited the UP( Up Thrust) area and could be looking for a LPSY(Last Point of Supply).
What does this mean? Well firstly BTC needs to hold somewhere which could be in and around the 73-76k region.(I do not have a golden fortune teller) but at the moment price is exactly where it should be. I would have to update as the days go buy to see if price remains constant or if we can see more down before an LPSY.
The phoenix ascending indicator: The green line is touching the yellow line, and the red and blue are just at 70 and below. This indicates on the Bad Ass BB indicator that price should be more or less at the yellow dotted line on the chart.
Secondly its telling is that we can look out for a LPSY (Last Point of Supply). We are looking for a potential move back up to where resistance was broken in the UP. Which is around the 87-90K mark. Once this is happens we can expect it to come back down and make another LPSY or SOW(Sign of Support).
In Recap:
1) Looking for Last Point of Supply (LPSY): Retest of broken support before a bigger drop.
2) Sign of Weakness (SOW): Price breaks support with strong volume.
I do not like to trade the news but with USA potentially creating a Bitcoin reserve, I would again say keep your mind open and be adaptable especially with ETH being ahead in the schematic.
$USGDPQQ -United States GDP (Q4/2024)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 2.3%
Q4/2024
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The US economy expanded an annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest growth in three quarters, down from 3.1% in Q3 and in line with the advance estimate.
Personal consumption remained the main driver of growth, increasing 4.2%, the most since Q1 2023, in line with the advance estimate.
Spending rose for both goods (6.1%) and services (3.3%).
Also, exports fell slightly less (-0.5% vs -0.8%) and imports declined slightly more than initially anticipated (-1.2% vs -0.8%), leaving the contribution from net trade positive at 0.12 pp.
Government expenditure also rose more (2.9% vs 2.5%).
Private inventories cut 0.81 pp from the growth, less than 0.93 pp.
On the other hand, fixed investment contracted more (-1.4% vs -0.6%), due to equipment (-9% vs -7.8%) and as investment in intellectual property products failed to rise (0% vs 2.6%).
Residential investment however, rose more than initially anticipated (5.4% vs 5.3%).
Considering full 2024, the economy advanced 2.8%.
$OKE demonstrates solid long-term technical strength Technical Analysis
As of February 28, 2025, ONEOK Inc. (NYSE: OKE) is trading at $100.39. The stock has shown a bullish trend in the long term, while the short-term trend appears bearish. Key support levels are identified at $95.81 and $93.97, with resistance around $102.90.
The Relative Strength (RS) Rating has improved to 73, indicating enhanced price performance, though it remains below the ideal score of 80 or higher.
TradingView's technical analysis currently rates the stock as a 'sell,' noting that market conditions can change, as evidenced by a 'buy' trend over the past week and a 'strong buy' signal over the past month.
Fundamental Analysis
ONEOK Inc. operates in the Oil & Gas Operations industry with a market capitalization of approximately $63.21 billion. The company has a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.4, Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.2, and Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 3.4. The dividend yield stands at 4.02%.
Recent financial guidance for 2025 estimates net income attributable to ONEOK between $3.11 billion and $3.61 billion, with diluted earnings per share ranging from $4.97 to $5.77.
Analysts have set a 12-month average price target of $95.75, with estimates ranging between $83.00 and $111.00.
Validea's analysis, based on the Peter Lynch strategy, assigns ONEOK an 88% rating, reflecting strong fundamentals and valuation.
In summary, ONEOK Inc. demonstrates solid long-term technical strength and robust fundamental metrics. Investors should monitor short-term technical indicators and market conditions when considering investment decisions.
Bitcoin Breaks Out – Can the Momentum Sustain?Bitcoin has broken out of a prolonged consolidation phase and is now surging towards a key resistance area. After trading in a tight range with multiple change-of-character (CHoCH) formations and break of structure (BOS) signals, price action has confirmed bullish intent with a strong rally. The breakout from the discount zone, coupled with a higher low formation, has propelled BTC into the premium zone, where it is now testing a critical area of interest.
The rally gained strength after reclaiming the area of interest near the strong low, which previously acted as a demand zone. Buyers stepped in aggressively, pushing the price past key equilibrium levels and into the Fibonacci retracement zones. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching a weak high near 92,800, which may act as resistance. If buyers maintain control and sustain above this level, the next target could be around 95,000 or higher.
Despite the strong momentum, there is a possibility of rejection from this premium area, leading to a retracement. If Bitcoin fails to hold above 92,800 and shows signs of exhaustion, a pullback toward the 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels may follow. The equilibrium zone around 91,500 will be crucial in determining whether the uptrend remains intact. A drop below this level could indicate a temporary correction before the next move higher.
For traders looking to enter long positions, confirmation above 92,800 with a strong breakout could provide further upside potential. However, if price begins to stall or form a bearish CHoCH near the current resistance zone, a retracement trade targeting lower Fibonacci levels may be an alternative approach. As long as the structure holds above the last higher low, the bullish bias remains valid.
Bitcoin's breakout is a strong indication that buyers are regaining control, but sustainability at current levels is key. The coming sessions will determine whether the momentum can continue toward higher targets or if a retracement is needed before the next leg up. Traders should watch for signs of continuation or weakness before making a directional commitment.
TRUMP TWEETS CHANGE THE GAMEGiven the current update by the US president, the gameplay might move to more positive sentiment for the overall market. This could be a sign, we will see the market reaction tomorrow for more clear direction.
.
Congratz for those who long on SOL, ADA, and XRP.
BIG WIN FOR YALL
Trade responsibly
XCO
Bitcoin Bullish Scenario: Breakout & Retest Idea📈 Bullish Scenario: Breakout & Retest of the $95,000–$99,500 Zone 🚀
🔹 Idea:
Price breaks above the strong resistance around $95,000 and holds it as new support on a retest.
🎯 Potential Entry:
✅ Trigger: A clear break and close above $95,000 on the 1H or 4H chart, followed by a pullback to retest $95,000–$96,000 as support.
✅ Confirmation: Enter on the first bullish candle or bullish engulfing pattern confirming the retest holds.
🔻 Stop-Loss Placement:
🔸 Aggressive: Below the breakout zone ($94,000–$94,500).
🔸 Conservative: Below the last swing low prior to the breakout ($92,000–$93,000).
🎯 Targets:
🎯 T1: $99,500 (next immediate resistance).
🎯 T2: $105,000–$109,000 (upper resistance on the chart).
💡 Consider taking partial profit at T1 and moving stop-loss to breakeven.
⚠️ Risk Management Tips:
🔹 Risk only 1–2% of your capital per trade.
🔹 If the retest fails quickly and price closes back below $95,000, exit early to minimize losses.
📢 Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly before making any investment decisions.
📊 What’s your take on this setup? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇🔥
CHFJPY BuyWhy the Swiss Franc (CHF) is a Strong Buy Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Global instability is driving investors toward safe-haven assets, and the Swiss Franc (CHF) stands out as a top choice. Here’s why:
🔹 European Security Concerns – Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions are unsettling European markets, increasing demand for CHF.
🔹 Middle East Instability – Conflicts like the Israel-Hamas war are disrupting global supply chains, pushing investors toward safer assets.
🔹 Rising Global Conflicts – The escalation of wars and potential new conflicts add to economic uncertainty, making CHF more attractive.
🔹 Economic Implications – Inflationary pressures and trade disruptions are reinforcing deglobalization, making investors seek stability.
🔹 Swiss Franc’s Safe-Haven Status – Switzerland’s economic stability and neutral stance make CHF a hedge against global risks.
💡 Conclusion: With rising geopolitical uncertainty, CHF remains a strong buy for investors looking to protect capital.
#Forex #SafeHaven #CHF #Geopolitics #Trading
