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XAUUSD on Rising wedge Market is slow because of Christmas. What possible scenario we have at moment? As Market rejected multiple times from 2632 resistance area also rejected from bottom support2690. Gold is on Rising wedge here 2610 support is playing a crucial role,as i mentioned in my yesterday commentary if any H4 candle below 2610 we will trade on bearish side till 2590, will be our first traget. On the other hand,if XAUUSD remain above 2610 it will be in rising wedge,our eyes will at 2632 first and our optimal target will be 2660.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Forexmaestro121
US30/USD 4H ChartOur Preferance The index shows signs of weakness amid ongoing market uncertainties and potential macroeconomic headwinds. Price has retested resistance at 43,780, forming a bearish rejection. A support area has been identified at 41,708. Potential short setup with SL above 43,780 and TP1 at 42,753, TP2 at the support level. Monitor key economic data releases for further confirmation. Note: This analysis is for educational purposes and not trading advice. Consider market conditions and strategies. Please do not forget the like button, Share it with your friends,thanks, and Trade safe
OANDA:US30USDShort
by David_Josh_Trader
Holiday Trading Update: Christmas Eve Market Overview.As we approach Christmas Eve, it's important to note the shortened trading hours in the US. The stock market will close early at 1 PM, while the US bond market will close at 2 PM. Currency Market Overview The USD is showing a mixed performance against major currencies: EUR: +0.12% JPY: -0.04% GBP: -0.15% CHF: +0.18% CAD: +0.32% AUD: +0.27% NZD: +0.23% US Stock Market Snapshot US stocks are mixed following yesterday's rise: Dow: -25 points S&P: +6.05 points Nasdaq: +43 points US Debt Market Yields have shown marginal changes: 2-year: 4.353%, up 0.3 bps 5-year: 4.454%, up 0.9 bps 10-year: 4.606%, up 0.8 bps 30-year: 4.796%, up 1.3 bps Global Economic Updates Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) The RBA released its minutes, noting that its policy remains "sufficiently restrictive" to address inflation concerns. Despite gaining confidence that inflation has eased, risks persist. The board highlighted the importance of not prematurely easing policies and acknowledged that if economic growth strengthens, a prolonged delay in rate adjustments might be necessary. Updated forecasts for inflation and growth will be published in February. Japan's Finance Minister Finance Minister Kato emphasized the importance of ensuring currency stability to reflect economic fundamentals, particularly in light of recent sharp foreign exchange movements. He stated that the government would maintain close communication with overseas authorities on forex policies and was prepared to take decisive action against excessive volatility. European Central Bank (ECB) ECB's Vujčić reiterated that interest rate adjustments would continue as long as data align with projections, emphasizing the central bank's data-dependent approach. He refrained from specifying the exact level at which the ECB might halt rate hikes, underscoring the uncertainty tied to future economic conditions. US Economic Data The Richmond Fed index will be released at 10 AM ET, with expectations at -10 versus -14 last month. The US Treasury will auction 5-year notes at 1 PM. Yesterday, the Treasury auctioned 2-year notes with a 0.1 bp tail and a bid to cover ratio of 2.73X versus the 6-month average of 2.68X. Domestic buyers were very light at 6.7% versus the average of 19.5%, but international buyers showed up, taking 82.1%, well above the average of 68.1%. Technical Analysis EUR/USD The EUR/USD is trading around its 100-hour moving average (MA) at 1.0403, a key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. A move above this level could signal a more bullish trend, while staying below it would indicate that sellers are in firm control. USD/JPY The USD/JPY remains in a narrow trading range, currently at 157.12. The rising 100-hour MA at 156.42 is quickly approaching, which will be an important level to watch. Key levels include the high from November at 156.739 and the low from yesterday at 155.94. GBP/USD The GBP/USD is stretching higher, moving closer to the falling 100-hour MA at 1.2563. Breaking above this level would target a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147, followed by the 200-hour MA at 1.26201. Season's Greetings from OakleyJM As we approach this festive season, I wanted to extend my warmest wishes to all my followers. May your Christmas be filled with joy, and may the New Year bring you prosperity and success in your trading endeavours.. Navigating the markets during the holidays can be challenging due to reduced liquidity, unexpected volatility, and market closures. Here are a few tips to help you prepare: Plan Ahead: Be aware of trading schedules and adjust your plans accordingly. Manage Risk: Use tighter stop-loss orders and reduce position sizes. Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest news and economic data releases. Use Limit Orders: Ensure you get the price you want despite wider bid-ask spreads. Focus on Liquidity: Trade assets with higher liquidity, such as major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks. Review Your Strategy: Analyse your performance and set goals for the upcoming year. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year! Warm regards, OakleyJM.
by OakleyJM
HIVE ANALYSIS📊 #HIVE Analysis ✅There is a formation of Falling Wedge Pattern on daily chart with a breakout and currently retesting the major resistance zone🧐 Pattern signals potential bullish movement incoming after a confirmation of breakout 👀Current Price:  $0.3480 🚀 Target Price:    $0.4788 ⚡️What to do ? 👀Keep an eye on #HIVE price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️ #HIVE  #Cryptocurrency  #TechnicalAnalysis  #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
Revving Up LI!Li Auto is demonstrating strong bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $22.50 level. A breakout above the $31.04 resistance would confirm continued strength, positioning the stock to target the $47.67 monthly resistance. This trade offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio, with downside risk managed via a stop-loss at $18.90. As a leader in the hybrid electric vehicle (EV) market, Li Auto is well-positioned to benefit from increasing adoption of EVs in China and worldwide. With its focus on extended-range EV technology and continuous production capacity expansion, the company is poised to capture growing consumer demand. Favorable government incentives for EVs and Li Auto’s ability to deliver innovative, efficient vehicles further strengthen its growth potential. This combination of technical momentum, market leadership, and favorable industry trends supports a bullish push toward $47.67, making LI a compelling opportunity for traders and investors. NASDAQ:LI
NASDAQ:LILong
by The_Trading_Mechanic
#GMKN - Option x2/x2.5 with 14% annual yield. Good day, dear investors. We continue to bet on the normalization of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States and Europe, one of the recipients of these events will be Norilsk Nickel. GMKN is a producer of nickel, copper, platinum, palladium, the list is much wider, but this is the main thing. An export company, it has a full production cycle: mining, enrichment, production, logistics and sales. In connection with foreign economic activity, the devaluation risks of the national currency are less aggressively distributed. Financial indicators are stable. Under the influence of restrictions, net profit and revenue are decreasing, but net assets remain in surplus and are growing despite the rising cost of servicing debt obligations. The average dividend yield over the past 10 years is 14.3 ₽ per 1 share, which at the time of writing is 13.6%. The technical picture is bearish. The stock has dropped to the range of 123-77, where trading is taking place below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The target of this bearish cycle may be marks near the lower boundary of the range. Possible scenarios: - Direct fall to 77 - Growth to 139 - 149 and fall to 77 - End of the bearish cycle. Our team believes that at the moment the company's quotes are at historically low price levels, especially considering the quotes of precious metals and the growth of the money supply in Russia. At the same time, if our expectations for the normalization of external relations are not met, the shares will still be able to grow and neutralize currency risks, according to the scenario of Iran or Turkey and their stock markets. Therefore, despite the bearish view from technical analysts, we are considering this company for addition to our portfolio on the Russian market. With respect to you, Daniel Drozdov. CIS Market Analyst VokCapital
RUS:GMKNLong
by VOKCAPITAL
Gold is Running Hot!The market experienced two consecutive days of selloff following the FOMC Chairman Powell's rate announcement. This reaction is reflective of heightened uncertainty and bearish sentiment immediately after the announcement. However, today marked a shift in momentum as the price finally stabilized, signaling potential exhaustion of the selling pressure. Buyers have stepped back into the market with conviction, pushing the price back into the buy zone. This area coincides with a prior consolidation zone, suggesting that it holds significant technical importance as a support level. The re-entry into this zone indicates renewed interest from buyers, possibly setting the stage for a rebound or further bullish momentum in the near term. PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenEdge
1
Daily Analysis of GBP to USD – Issue 176The analyst believes that the price of { GBPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
Why I’m Bullish on BTC Right NowShort-Term BTC Analysis After a recent correction, Bitcoin seems primed for a short-term uptrend. Here’s why: Technical Signals Point to a Rebound: • Volume Surge: November 11 saw a 3x volume spike at key price levels, suggesting strong buyer interest. • Bollinger Bands: The bottom band is providing support, signaling oversold conditions. • 50 MA: The 50-day moving average is also acting as a support level, adding to bullish momentum. • 10% Decline Factored In: BTC already corrected by 10%, clearing some of the overbought conditions. Trend Analysis: • The overall trend remains bullish. • A key support line has been tested successfully, while a resistance line has flipped to support after being tested twice—classic bullish behavior. With strong fundamentals and technical signals aligning, Bitcoin looks ready to move upward in the near term. Stay tuned for updates and insights! Don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more crypto market analysis. Let’s make the most of these opportunities together!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by themr-im
a significant fundamental devolopmentNSE:BANDHANBNK there has been a devolpment which should bring a change in attitude towards bandhan bank as an investment in my sense kindly read below Sub.: Grant of stock options under Bandhan Bank Employee Stock Option Plan Series 1 (‘ESOP Series 1’) Pursuant to the applicable provisions of the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 (‘SEBI LODR’), this is to inform that the Board of Directors of Bandhan Bank Limited (‘Bank’), at its meeting held on December 24, 2024, granted 2,96,353 equity stock options of the face value of Rs. 10 each (‘ESOPs’), at the grant price of Rs. 164.38 (Rupees One Hundred Sixty Four and Thirty Eight Paisa only) per option to Mr. Ratan Kumar Kesh, Executive Director & Chief Operating Officer (‘ED&COO’) of the Bank when the esop has been granted at current market price my observation are as stated below Granting ESOPs at the Current Market Price: The exercise price of ₹164.38 matches the stock's closing price on December 23, 2024. This means employees will not receive the options at a discount. They can only profit if the share price increases above this level in the future. This practice indicates confidence in future growth but does not offer immediate financial advantage to the recipient unless the stock appreciates. Incentive for Performance: Employees are motivated to focus on long-term goals that drive the stock price upward. Since the options are granted at the market price, there’s no immediate gain; the payoff is tied to delivering meaningful results over time. Alignment with Shareholders: Leaders now have a vested interest in improving the company’s financial performance, as their personal gains are directly linked to shareholder returns. No Immediate Dilution: Since the ESOP is priced at the market value, it avoids concerns about significant undervaluation that could lead to larger dilution upon exercise. Bandhan Bank shows confidence in its market valuation, signaling to investors that it believes the stock price will appreciate. Shareholder dilution is minimal since the ESOP is priced at the prevailing market rate, meaning no intrinsic value exists at the time of the grant. Granting ESOPs at the current market price is a strategic move that ties leadership rewards to future performance without offering upfront monetary benefits. It aligns executive incentives with shareholder interests and signals confidence in the bank’s growth trajectory, though its impact will be realized only over the long term.
NSE:BANDHANBNKLong
by Tradegainer
2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental & Technical PreviewFundamental analysis WHSELFINVEST:GBPUSD showed resilience in 2024, falling just 1% across the year. The pair experienced strong gains between April to September, rising from a low of 1.23 to a high of 1.34. However, GBP/USD fell 5% in the final quarter of the year amid notable USD strength, pulling GBP/USD from 1.34 to the 1.25 level where it trades at the time of writing. While the pound booked losses against the US dollar in 2024, GBP's performance against other major peers was impressive, rising solidly against EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, and JPY. GBP/USD has been supported across 2024 by the BoE cutting rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve and by the expectation that this trend would continue in 2025. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US election, combined with the Labour government’s Budget, means that the outlook for both economies has changed, potentially impacting the direction of monetary policy in 2025 for both central banks and GBP/USD. GBP/USD outlook – UK economic factors Growth The UK economy is expected to continue to grow in 2025. However, GDP could be weaker than the 1.5% forecast by the BoE owing to several key factors, including uncertainty surrounding trade and a less expansionary UK budget. Trump’s second term in the White House brings uncertainty, and UK trade will be under the spotlight. While the UK isn’t directly in the firing line for tariffs, the openness of the UK economy means a global shift towards increased tariffs could hurt growth prospects. However, should the UK pursue and achieve closer ties with the US or the EU, this could help growth but not to the extent of reducing the impact of Brexit. The extent of the indirect impact of trade tariffs on the UK will depend on their magnitude. The UK is already experiencing depressed growth, which Trump’s action could exasperate. The BoE forecasts GDP growth of 0% in Q4 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The OECD forecasts 1.7% growth, and Bloomberg's survey of economists points to growth of 1.3%. Inflation In November, inflation in the UK was 2.6% YoY, rising for a second straight month and remaining above the Bank of England's 2% target as wage growth and service sector inflation remain sticky. The labour market has shown signs of easing, but unemployment remains low by historical standards at 4.2%, and wage growth elevated at 5.2%. We expect some softening in the UK job market following the Labour government’s first Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves placed a major tax burden on employers with a rise in employer National Insurance contributions and an increase in the minimum wage. A broad range of UK labour market indicators point to a weakening outlook, with surveys indicating that UK firms (especially smaller firms) are scaling back hiring plans. Although wage growth and service sector inflation were slightly firmer than expected at the end of 2024, the disinflationary trend remains intact, with core inflation well below last year's highs. The BoE projections show CPI could reach 2.7% in 2025 before easing to 2.5% in 2026. However, this could be lower if the labour market weakens further and if growth remains lacklustre. Will the BoE cut rates in 2025? At the final BoE meeting in 2025, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, in line with expectations. However, the vote split was more dovish than expected, at 6-3 compared to the 8-1 forecast. This suggests that dovish momentum is building within the monetary policy committee for a rate cut in February. The central bank signaled gradual, rare cuts throughout 2025 amid sticky inflation, although policymakers are increasingly concerned over the growth outlook. The market is pricing 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, supporting the pound. However, this could be conservative given that the labour market could weaken considerably following the Budget. A weaker labour market will lower wage growth and impact consumption, potentially cooling inflation faster. Uncertainty surrounding trade could ease inflationary pressures further in 2025, meaning deeper cuts from the BoE than the market is pricing in. As a result, GBP could come under pressure across H1 2025. GBP/USD outlook - US economic factors USD strength was nothing short of impressive in Q4. The USD index jumped 5% to reach a two-year high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at a slower pace in 2025. Despite the outsized move in Q4, we expect further USD strength in 2025. At the time of writing, US CPI has risen for the past two months, reaching 2.7% YoY in November. Core PCE is also proving to be sticky, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Earlier confidence at the Federal Reserve that inflation would continue falling to the 2% target appears to have faded amid ongoing US economic exceptionalism and a cooling but not collapsing labour market. Signs of sticky inflation come as the US job market remains resilient. Nonfarm payrolls for November showed 227k jobs were added. Unemployment has ticked higher but is expected to end 2025 at 4.3%, down from 4.4% previously expected. Meanwhile, economic growth in the US remains solid. The US recorded Q3 GDP as 3.1% annually, up from 2.8% in Q2. According to the OECD, the US is expected to see strong growth among the G7 economies, with 2.8% growth expected in 2024 and 2.4% forecast for 2025. A combination of sticky-than-expected inflation, solid growth, and a resilient jobs market suggests that the US economy is on a strong footing as Trump comes into power. Political factors Trump is widely expected to implement inflationary measures, including tax cuts and trade tariffs. Inflationary policies at a time when US inflation is starting to heat up again could create more of a headache for the Federal Reserve continuing with its easing cycle. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025? At its last meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive 25-basis-point cut and following a 50-basis-point reduction in September, when it kicked off its rate-cutting cycle. However, the Fed also signaled slower and shallower rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and policymakers’ updated projections confirm that the Fed will be much more cautious next year. The Fed increased its inflation forecast to 2.5% YoY, up from 2.1%, and isn’t expected to reach 2% until 2027. The market is pricing in just 35 basis points worth of cuts next year, and the first rate cut isn’t expected until July. However, Trump’s policy plans will be the most significant determinant of the Fed's decisions regarding rates next year. Technical analysis Overview The GBP/USD pair has been in a clear downtrend since its peak in May 2021, marked by a swing high of ~1.4205 and a subsequent low of ~1.1800 in September 2022. The recent price action suggests the pair is consolidating near key psychological and technical levels, hinting at potential future moves. This analysis incorporates a refined Fibonacci retracement that spans the broader bearish cycle for a more holistic perspective. Long-Term Fibonacci Analysis The updated Fibonacci retracement has been applied from the May 2021 high of ~1.4205 to the September 2022 low of ~1.1800. This adjustment provides a better representation of the long-term market structure and aligns key levels with historical price reactions: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.4007): This level aligns closely with the psychological 1.4000 level, making it a key resistance area should the pair see a bullish recovery. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.3884): This level historically coincides with areas of consolidation and resistance, suggesting it could act as a ceiling for mid-term rallies. 50% Retracement Level (~1.3785): Situated near prior structural highs, this is a crucial midpoint for evaluating the strength of any bullish correction. 61.8% Retracement Level (~1.3660): Often referred to as the "golden ratio," this level aligns with significant historical resistance, further reinforcing its importance. 78.6% Retracement Level (~1.3548): This deeper retracement could serve as an area of rejection in a bullish recovery scenario. Short-Term Impulse Fibonacci Analysis Focusing on the most recent bearish impulse, the Fibonacci retracement spans from the swing high of 1.3170 (August 2023) to the recent low of 1.2384. Key levels from this retracement include: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.2612): The price has hovered around this level recently, suggesting it acts as a local resistance point. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.2785): This level is bolstered by confluence with horizontal resistance, making it a critical test for bullish momentum. 50% Retracement Level (~1.2850): Represents a midpoint and potential short-term rejection area. 1.618 Fibonacci Extension (~1.2139): This provides a logical downside target should the bearish trend continue. 3.618 and 4.236 Extensions (~1.1164 and ~1.0644): These deeper levels indicate the potential for significant bearish continuation in the long term. Other technical indicators Moving Averages The 21-week SMA (~1.2924) remains above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance. The 50-week SMA (~1.2785) coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the recent impulse, reinforcing its importance. RSI and MACD The RSI (47.96) is below the midpoint of 50, indicating bearish momentum. Watch for divergence near key Fibonacci levels. The MACD histogram is negative, with no signs of an imminent crossover, confirming bearish pressure. Support and Resistance Zones Key Resistance Levels 1.2612: Recent price interactions suggest this is a significant short-term barrier. 1.2785: The 38.2% retracement of the impulse move, coinciding with the 50-week SMA. 1.3000: A psychological level with historical significance. 1.4000: The 23.6% retracement of the broader move and a long-term target for bullish recovery. Key Support Levels 1.2384: The recent swing low. 1.2139: The 1.618 extension of the recent impulse move. 1.2000: A critical psychological threshold. 1.1164 and 1.0644: Deeper Fibonacci extensions providing long-term bearish targets. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend, with key levels from the updated Fibonacci retracement offering valuable insights for both potential reversals and continuation scenarios. Traders should monitor the interaction of price with the 1.2612 and 1.2785 resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the downside targets of 1.2139 and below. The RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum, while moving averages provide additional context for dynamic support and resistance. A multi-timeframe approach will be crucial in navigating this pair over the coming months, with the broader trend still probably favoring the bears. -- written by Fiona Cincotta & WH SelfInvest
Short
by WHSelfInvest
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin– Issue 236The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
WHY THE SWISS FRAN MAY STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR THIS WEEKAs financial markets gear up for the final trading week of the year, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has emerged as a potential outperformer against the US Dollar (USD). This projection is underpinned by a confluence of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and market-specific dynamics that favor the safe-haven Swiss currency. The Safe-Haven Appeal of the Swiss Franc: The Swiss Franc’s reputation as a safe-haven currency is one of its strongest drivers. Amid global economic uncertainties—ranging from lingering concerns about China’s economic recovery to geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe—investors have increasingly turned to the CHF to safeguard their capital. With the US Dollar also serving as a safe-haven, the competition between the two often hinges on relative economic and monetary policy dynamics. Central Bank Policies: Diverging Paths: Recent monetary policy signals from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have been critical in bolstering the CHF. While the SNB has indicated a willingness to maintain a cautious approach to interest rates, its prior hawkish stance has already anchored the Franc’s value. The SNB’s commitment to curbing inflation, alongside its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets, underscores its proactive strategy to protect the Franc from excessive depreciation. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has signaled a more measured approach. Despite robust US economic performance, the Fed’s reluctance to commit to further rate hikes has tempered the Dollar’s momentum. This divergence in monetary policy trajectories provides an edge to the Swiss Franc, especially as the market anticipates potential recalibrations from the SNB in response to inflationary trends. US Economic Data and Dollar Weakness: The strength of the US Dollar has been contingent on a stream of positive economic data. However, recent indicators suggest a mixed picture. Slower-than-expected growth in key sectors, coupled with softer inflation metrics, has raised questions about the sustainability of the Dollar’s rally. Any further signs of economic deceleration in the US could diminish the Dollar’s appeal, indirectly supporting the CHF. Global Factors at Play: The broader global economic backdrop also plays a significant role. China’s faltering economic recovery has heightened concerns about global demand, indirectly boosting safe-haven currencies like the CHF. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainty in Ukraine, continue to drive risk-averse behavior in financial markets. CONCLUSION : A Favorable Week for the Franc? While the trajectory of the Swiss Franc this week will depend on several variables, the currency’s fundamental strength appears intact. The interplay of SNB policy, US economic data, and global risk sentiment creates a conducive environment for CHF appreciation. However, the market remains susceptible to surprises, and a sudden shift in sentiment could alter these dynamics. For now, investors eyeing the Swiss Franc should remain vigilant, balancing the currency’s historical safe-haven appeal with the nuanced realities of an evolving macroeconomic landscape. TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK: SELL USD/CHF
Short
by design77
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week. The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY : CAPITALIZING ON YEN STRENGTHThe Japanese yen (JPY) has recently been trading near a five-month low against the U.S. dollar (USD), influenced by the monetary policy stances of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve. The BOJ's decision to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, without clear indications of future rate hikes, contrasts with the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone, which includes projections of a measured pace of rate cuts in 2025. This divergence has contributed to the yen's depreciation, with the currency experiencing a 4.7% decline this month, reaching levels that have prompted market participants to remain alert to potential intervention from Japanese authorities. Looking ahead, some analysts anticipate a potential strengthening of the yen later in the year. Factors such as expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a shift in market focus towards U.S. elections could influence this trend. However, in the immediate term, the yen's performance is likely to remain under pressure due to the current monetary policy divergence between Japan and the United States. Market participants should closely monitor central bank communications and economic indicators, as these will play a crucial role in shaping currency movements in the near future. TRADE IDEA FOR THIS WEEK: SELL USDJPY
Short
by design77
Gold price analysis December 23Fundamental Analysis Gold prices held steady near $2,625 in early Asian trading on Monday. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance could weigh on the yellow metal. However, a weaker greenback following weaker inflation data could limit the yellow metal’s downside. The Fed cut interest rates at its December meeting as expected but signaled it would slow the pace of further reductions in borrowing costs. The Fed’s dot plot, a chart that projects the future path of interest rates, shows a half-percentage-point cut in rates by 2025, compared to a full percentage-point cut expected in September. This, in turn, further boosts the US Dollar (USD) and weakens USD-denominated gold as higher real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of bullion. Technical Analysis Gold marked a second consecutive bullish rebound today. Although there were some adjustments at the beginning of the Asian session, as long as the correction does not exceed 2605, it is still a buying opportunity worth paying attention to. 2651-2665 are considered the two technical resistance zones of gold price today before it wants to uptrend again and find the peak around 2692. If 2605 is broken, 2657 will be the target of all subsequent downtrends.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader