Fundamental Analysis
Copper breaks outFinally joining silver and platinum, copper has broken out above key $5.00 level. With prices making higher highs and higher lows ever since bottoming in April, dip-buyers will be keen to step in on any short-term weakness we may see moving forward. For as long as support now holds at $5.00, the bulls will be happy. The line in the sand is now at $4.79, marking the recent low.
The macro backdrop remains bullish, with global copper demand seen rising significantly in the coming years. This is primarily due to the global energy transition and technological advancements. Copper is used in electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, as well as the more traditional uses like construction and electronics. With the AI revolution, another source of demand for copper consumption will be from data centers.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Gold volatility intensifies. Waiting for direction?The price of gold fluctuated greatly this week, which means that the end point of sentiment will not disappear so easily for the time being; in the short-term K-line pattern, there are continuous ups and downs. If you want to trade steadily, you can wait and see for a while.
From the hourly chart, the MA5-day and 10-day moving averages cross downward, and the RS indicator hovers around 40.7. This shows that the market trend is weak. The current price has bottomed out near 3310 and rebounded to fluctuate around 3320. The price may continue to decline after a slight rebound.
Today, focus on the long opportunities near 3305 and the pressure position above 3345.
Quaid has always believed that only by insisting on detailed analysis of the market and reducing losses, can we slowly accumulate the principal of the account.
Good luck to everyone.
6/26 Gold Analysis and Trading ViewGood morning, everyone!
Yesterday, gold rose to around 3336 before pulling back, then revisited the same level again. The buy-on-dip strategy performed well, delivering solid profits.
At today’s open, prices have moved slightly higher but remain near resistance. Technically, there’s potential to test the 3350 area, and if the move is strong, a rally toward 3370 is also possible.
If gold reaches this zone, it may present a favorable short-term selling opportunity. Therefore, today's trading strategy should focus on range-based trading between 3326-3368, selling near resistance and buying near support.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 3348–3352
Support: 3326–3318
Lastly, be mindful: if a trending move emerges, adjust your strategy accordingly and avoid counter-trend trades. Stay flexible and manage risk wisely.
CHZ Bulls Are Getting Trapped Again —Another Nasty Drop Loading?Yello Paradisers did you notice how clean this CHZ rejection was? After a textbook touch of descending resistance, the price got slammed down again, and what comes next might catch many traders off guard. If you’re not prepared, this next leg could drain portfolios fast.
💎#CHZ/USDT continues to respect its well-defined descending channel on the 12H chart. Every time price attempts to rise, it's met with aggressive selling and this latest bounce was no different. Price failed to even reach the major supply zone between 0.03800 and 0.04200 before getting rejected at the resistance layer around 0.03600. This weakness suggests buyers are running out of steam and may not have the power to defend current levels for much longer.
💎The setup is straightforward #CHZ is trading within a strong bearish structure. The lower highs and lower lows pattern remains intact, and the most recent push up couldn’t break the descending resistance line. This latest rejection also aligns with the horizontal resistance just below the supply zone, which adds confluence to the bearish outlook. Unless the price breaks and closes above 0.04423 which would invalidate the current downtrend the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
💎The next level to watch is moderate support at 0.03026, but more importantly, all eyes should be on the major support zone down at 0.02562. That’s where significant liquidity is likely to be resting and that’s where smart money will be hunting for entries once retail panic sets in.
Right now, volume remains weak, and there’s no bullish momentum strong enough to break out of this channel. Until that changes, expect this to play out as another trap pushing late longs into losses before sweeping the lows.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
XAUUSD PLAN – June 26Price is inside a Wyckoff range – we're watching for buy setups 🔼
Resistance: 3356 – 3369
Support: 3325 – 3305
🔴 SELL GOLD 3380 – 3383 | SL: 3388 (small lot)
TP1: 3375 TP2: 3365 TP3: 3355 TP4: 3345 Open TP: 3330
🟢 BUY GOLD 3315 – 3312 | SL: 3307 (small lot)
TP1: 3320 TP2: 3330 TP3: 3340 TP4: 3350 Open TP: 3370
Scalping strategies will trigger if price reacts at the above zones.‼️
Note: Use full Take Profit and Stop Loss for safety and better results.
With new wars appearing, is THALES a good buy?Pros:
Massive scale & diversified contract base
-€18 billion in annual revenue, 50+ years in defense—among Europe’s largest contractors .
Secured key recent contracts:
-NATO NCOP/BMD Phase 3 missile-defense and awareness system (ongoing since 2012, renewed in early 2025) .
-NATO NCIA IT modernization contract (~€100 million+, six years) awarded via Proximus consortium .
-Portuguese “ForceShield” VSHORAD air-defense system via NSPA .
These show active involvement and political support in large, multiyear NATO/U.S.–backed defense programs.
Exposure to rising defense budgets
-With the new 5% NATO defense-spending pledge, countries are stepping up military expenditures—boosting demand for Thales’ radar, missile, and communication systems .
-Positioned to capture billions more as defense budgets grow across Europe.
Cons & Risks
Size limits rapid gains
-Large-cap stocks like Thales require major updates to move—tens or hundreds of millions in net new orders… a small contract won't cut it.
-Expect slower reactions than mid-caps like Hensoldt or THEON.
Valuation sensitivity
-With high valuation levels, share price can dip on a valuation reset, even with decent results.
-A disappointing earnings quarter or negative macroeconomic news could chip away at gains.
Execution & political headwinds
-Big contracts, like NATO BMD, are subject to delays or cost overruns, affecting profitability.
-Geopolitical sensitivities (e.g., with Russia, Turkey, internal EU politics) can jeopardize projects or license approval.
D) Mixed analyst sentiment
-Although consensus leans positive, there are also Hold and Sell recommendations—some analysts worry about long product cycles and execution risks .
-Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
APU Spot Entry — Following Smart Money, Eyeing Meme Rotation✅ Entry based on smart money signal, positive meme sentiment
✅ Strong support at 0.0001548–0.0001553
✅ Upside targets: 0.00052, 0.00112, main at 0.00122
Active Plan:
Hold spot as long as 0.0001548 holds and meme rotation remains strong
Watch for reaction at support to add or manage risk
Monitor meme sector for continued momentum
Profit Targets:
Partial profit: 0.00052 / 0.00112
Main target: 0.00122
🚨 Risk Warning:
Close spot if support at 0.0001548 fails or meme trend weakens
Avoid averaging down below key support
SPY soars to new all time highsThere has been a lot of speculation about where SPY is going next. I believe a significant correction will happen in the near future. However, today SPY is creeping back into the strong uptrend it once had. Looking at chart patterns, SPY is building momentum once more and will be hitting another yet another all time high.
BTC STEADIES ON CEASEFIRE AND CORPORATE DEMANDBitcoin held steady on Thursday, supported by improving risk sentiment as the Middle East ceasefire continued to hold, calming broader market fears. Despite the stability, BTC remained confined within its recent trading range, reflecting a cautious tone among traders. In the previous session, Bitcoin rose 0.44% to $108,328, fueled by renewed institutional interest, with reports suggesting a growing number of corporate entities were accumulating BTC as part of their asset diversification strategies.
Adding to the sentiment, U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) are reportedly exploring the recognition of cryptocurrency as a valid asset in mortgage applications. While still in early stages, this development hinted at growing mainstream acceptance, offering some limited upside support for Bitcoin.
However, as of 04:47 GMT+4, Bitcoin had given up most of its earlier gains, trading down 0.54% at $107,309, as traders remained hesitant to push prices higher without a strong breakout catalyst and profit taking.
PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH
On the 4-hour chart, the initial overall trend was bearish until price broke above the previous lower high, signaling a Break of Structure (BOS). However, as BTC catches its breath with price action and RSI signaling more room to the downside, sellers are eyeing support at $106,263. A break below this level could open the path toward the next potential target around $104,820. On the flip side, if bulls regain control, a break above $108,328 would likely trigger a move toward $109,011, with a potential extension to $110,442. Analysts note that breakouts in either direction remain on the table, given current market volatility.
Gold Price Splurge Eyes 3325–30 MitigationGold market splurges through the 3350's, creating momentum that is likely to lure price back to mitigate the 3325–30 zone before initiating the next bullish leg. The structure signals a healthy correction in line with ongoing upward sentiment. follow for more insights ,comment and boost idea
Oil volatility expected to remain on Middle East tensions.Fundamental
Oil prices remain under pressure. Volatility is expected to remain elevated as traders digest inventory data, watch for geopolitical shifts, and anticipate the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where supply policy could change.
Technical
Technical indicators remain strongly bearish with RSI favouring further downside below pivot level 65.53 toward support levels at 63.76 and 60.00. A break above 65.53 sees a move towards resistance levels at 66.50 and 69.00 subsequently
A Week Ahead: 23.06.2025 – 29.06.2025 | Key Events to WatchMonday, June 23
EU PMI Index – key for EUR
US PMI Index – key for USD
Tuesday, June 24
Canada CPI – important for CAD
Fed Chair Powell Testimony – high-impact event for USD and US stock markets
Wednesday, June 25
Fed Chair Powell Testimony continues – markets will look for monetary policy clues
Thursday, June 26
US GDP Q1 – key for USD
Friday, June 27
UK GDP Q1 – important for GBP
Japan Retail Sales, Unemployment, CPI – important for JPY
Canada GDP – important for CAD
US Personal Income and Spending – key for USD and US stock market
Summary: This week is packed with macroeconomic data and Powell’s testimony, which could shake the USD, CAD, JPY, GBP, and US stocks.
XAUUSD: Gold's Inflationary Tug-of-WarXAUUSD: Gold's Inflationary Tug-of-War – Navigating Powell's Remarks & Key Levels
Hello TradingView community!
Let's dive into Gold (XAUUSD) today, as its price action continues to be shaped by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance on inflation and interest rates. Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are particularly noteworthy.
🌍 Macroeconomic Drivers: Tariffs, Inflation, and Fed's Deliberation
The market finds itself in a complex situation following key statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell:
Powell indicated that substantial tariffs could trigger a prolonged wave of inflation, potentially moving beyond conventional economic models. This introduces a new and significant factor into the inflation outlook.
Despite recent inflation moderation, Powell stressed the necessity of more data from June and July before considering any rate cuts. This underscores the Fed's cautious approach and lack of immediate urgency.
He also cautioned about the risk of "price shocks turning into persistent inflation".
In this environment, where market sentiment is stretched between hopes for rate cuts and the emerging risk of tariff-driven inflation, Gold maintains its role as a crucial psychological anchor. Should the Fed be slow to react to this potential new inflationary pressure, Gold's appeal could intensify.
📊 XAUUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Plan:
Based on the XAUUSD charts (H4/M30 timeframe) you provided (e.g., image_008403.png): Gold is currently undergoing a corrective or consolidating phase after a notable pullback. The price is trading below shorter-term moving averages, suggesting either bearish momentum or an accumulation phase.
Key Resistance Zones (Potential SELL Areas):
3,352.383 - 3,353.860: An immediate resistance point, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Higher up: 3,391.750 - 3,395.000: This represents a very strong previous peak and a major resistance barrier.
Key Support Zones (Potential BUY Areas):
3,317.738 - 3,311.214: An intermediate support area, close to the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
3,302.939 - 3,302.857: A strong demand zone, aligning with the recent low.
Further down: 3,286.257: This is the next significant support level if preceding zones are breached.
🎯 XAUUSD Intraday Trading Plan:
Here are our refined zones and targets for today's trading:
BUY SCALP:
Entry: 3316 - 3314
SL: 3310
TP: 3320 - 3324 - 3328 - 3332 - 3336 - 3340
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3304 - 3302
SL: 3298
TP: 3308 - 3312 - 3316 - 3320 - 3330 - 3340 - 3350
SELL SCALP:
Entry: 3353 - 3355
SL: 3360
TP: 3350 - 3345 - 3340 - 3335 - 3330
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3390 - 3392
SL: 3396
TP: 3386 - 3382 - 3378 - 3374 - 3370 - 3360
⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor:
Fed Official Speeches: Any new comments from Fed officials regarding inflation or monetary policy outlook.
US Economic Data: Upcoming inflation (CPI, PCE) and employment reports (NFP) will be crucial for policy expectations.
Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing global tensions consistently bolster Gold's safe-haven appeal.
Trade wisely and always manage your risk effectively! Wishing everyone a profitable trading day!
Bitcoin Clashes with $108K Barrier: Reversal Ahead?📊 Bitcoin Technical Analysis
🟩 Overview
Asset: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Current Price Action: Approaching or testing the $108,000 resistance zone.
Chart Type: Candlestick
Indicators Present: Trendline, horizontal resistance zone, potential retracement projection.
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🔍 Key Observations
1. Major Resistance at $108,000
Price has rallied into a well-defined horizontal resistance zone, shown with a red rectangle.
This level has historical significance — likely a previous high or congestion area.
Multiple rejections around this level could signal weakening bullish momentum.
2. Bearish Projection
The blue dashed line suggests a retracement scenario:
Initial support zone: ~$104,000
Deeper pullback target: ~$102,000
This implies a short- to medium-term bearish outlook if bulls fail to break and hold above $108,000.
3. Trendline & Structure
The chart does not show a strong upward continuation pattern like a bull flag or breakout.
Instead, it looks like a rising wedge or exhaustion pattern nearing completion.
4. No Indicators Visible (e.g., RSI, MACD)
It’s harder to confirm overbought/oversold conditions or divergences, but the price action alone suggests hesitation and potential reversal.
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⚖ Conclusion: Bullish or Bearish?
Bias Justification
🟥 Bearish - Price struggling at $108K resistance- Bearish projection marked- No breakout confirmation- Risk of profit-taking at highs
🟩 Bullish - Only if $108K is broken convincingly with volume and follow-through- Retest and hold above $108K could invalidate reversal setup
Tightening Triangle Signals Major Move Ahead for Crude OilChart Overview (30-Minute Timeframe)
Instrument: Crude Oil Futures (OIL)
Current Price: ~$64.77
Recent Trend: Strong bearish drop followed by consolidation
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🔺 Key Patterns & Structures Identified
1. Descending Triangle (Current Price Action)
The current price is tightly compressed within a descending triangle, with a horizontal support near $64.70 and a descending trendline from the recent highs.
Bearish bias is typical in this pattern, but a breakout to the upside is possible, especially with bullish volume or news catalysts.
2. Previous Breakdown
A sharp decline occurred from a resistance zone around $78.00 (highlighted in red).
This breakdown was decisive and fast, breaking through former support levels (green zone around $68–$69).
3. Support Zone Holding
The support at ~$64.70 has been tested multiple times but is still holding, suggesting buyer interest at this level.
4. Volume/Volatility Contraction
Price is consolidating in a tight range between ~$64.5 and ~$65.3.
This compression of volatility often precedes a significant breakout or breakdown.
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🔁 Possible Scenarios
✅ Bullish Breakout
Trigger: Break above the descending trendline (~$65.3–$65.5).
Target: Revisit prior support zone at $68.00, possibly higher.
Confirmation: Strong bullish candle with increased volume.
❌ Bearish Breakdown
Trigger: Break below horizontal support at ~$64.70.
Target: Possible drop toward $62.00–$61.00, depending on momentum.
Confirmation: Strong bearish candle closing below support with high volume.
Lagarde Boosts the Euro and the DAXLagarde Boosts the Euro and the DAX: Is the ECB Putting an End to the Rate-Cut Cycle?
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a key speech before the European Parliament that has shaken financial markets, pushing the euro to multi-year highs and boosting stock market optimism in Germany. Her message, full of signals of monetary stability and strategic progress such as the digital euro, was interpreted as the official end to the rate-cut cycle that began in 2024.
“Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, but current conditions do not justify further adjustments,” Lagarde told EU lawmakers.
The Euro Nears New Highs After ECB Message
Currency markets reacted immediately. EUR/USD climbed to the 1.1700 zone, reaching levels not seen since December 2021. The move was reinforced by the ECB’s firm tone and a weaker dollar, also impacted by U.S. tensions following controversial statements from President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve.
From a technical standpoint, the euro maintains a clearly bullish bias. It trades above all relevant moving averages and with an RSI close to 71%, indicating strength but also overbought risk that could pull the price back to the control area around 1.13764, the current consolidation zone. The next key level is at 1.1800, while support levels are at 1.10792 and 1.09823.
The DAX Heads Toward New Highs
The German stock market also welcomed the ECB’s message of stability. The DAX, already showing strength in previous sessions, is trading around 23,673 points at today’s open, very close to its current high of 24,455.98 points. The index is benefiting from a stable rate environment, improved economic sentiment in Germany — reflected in the Ifo index rebound — and a recovery in the industrial sector.
Technically, a sustained close above 23,000 points would open the door for a move toward 25,000, while any correction would find support near 21,500. The RSI, currently around 52%, suggests there is still room for further price expansion, given that the 19,960 support was clearly confirmed in the latest technical rebound.
What’s Next for the Markets?
With European monetary policy entering a pause phase, investors are now focusing on two areas: the evolution of economic growth in the eurozone, and the direction of the dollar, shaped by political tensions in Washington and Jerome Powell’s testimony later this week.
Lagarde also brought up the push for the digital euro, a strategic initiative aimed at reinforcing the bloc’s financial autonomy amid global rivals like China and the United States.
Conclusion:
The ECB pauses, but markets move forward. Both the euro and the DAX are showing signs of strength after Lagarde’s speech. If macro conditions remain supportive, we may be entering a new stage of consolidation for European assets.
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XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK OFF - Gold Bears Part II🎯 Pullback Zones:
1️⃣ 3340 — ✅ Tagged during Asia session
Now waiting patiently to see if we extend into:
2️⃣ 3350–3356
Will look for fresh sell setups if no bullish fundamentals show up.
#XAUUSD #Gold #AsiaSession #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #MarketUpdate #Commodities
STOXX50: A great short term buyHello,
I see a short-term buying opportunity with a target of 6,000 for the Euro stocks 50. The EURO STOXX 50 is a stock index of Eurozone stocks designed by STOXX, an index provider owned by the Deutsche Börse Group. The index is composed of 50 stocks from 11 countries in the Eurozone.
EURO STOXX 50 represents Eurozone blue-chip companies considered as leaders in their respective sectors. It is made up of fifty of the largest and most liquid stocks. The index futures and options on the EURO STOXX 50, traded on Eurex, are among the most liquid products in Europe and the world.
With Europe gearing up for a rise as more money begins to flow into the European economies. The NATO has already had their meeting last week. After this development both the STOXX 50 and the STOXX 600 gained 0.3%, attempting to reverse losses from the previous sessions. NATO’s decision to raise defense spending targets from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035 fueled a rally in European defense stocks, including Rheinmetall (1.4%) and BAE Systems (1.4%).
From a technical view the Euro stocks 50 is currently forming a correction and nearing a bullish crossover on the MACD indicator. We believe that the current price gives a great opportunity for short to medium buyers to take advantage.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.