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Fundamental Analysis

TrumpFall in the Market due to Reciprocal Tariffs.By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades The announcement of new reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, causing dizzying drops in various companies since the beginning of the week. The measure has generated an environment of high volatility, with investors seeking refuge in the face of growing instability. Most Affected Companies and Sectors - Technology and Semiconductors • Apple Inc. has seen its shares fall by more than 15% during the week, affected by its dependence on global supply chains. • Amazon and Meta: Both tech giants have seen declines of about 9%, driven by fears over international exposure and rising tariff costs. • Nvidia and other companies in the semiconductor sector: They have posted even larger declines, reflecting this sector's sensitivity to trade uncertainty. - Automotive and Aerospace • Tesla Inc.: The electric vehicle maker has plunged nearly 20%, driven by concerns about rising production costs and competition from local manufacturing. • Boeing Co: Shares have fallen around 18% on concerns about potential disruptions to its supply chain and the impact of new trade barriers. - Industrials and Conglomerates • General Electric: The conglomerate has seen its share price fall by around 16%, as its extensive global operations are threatened by the tightening of trade policies. - Transportation & Logistics • AP Moller Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: The shipping companies have suffered sharp declines, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to global trade dynamics and tariff measures. - Energy • Chevron and TotalEnergies: Oil prices have fallen by 5% following the unexpected increase in supply by OPEC+, causing significant losses for these oil companies, which are facing an environment of uncertainty and adjustments in the energy markets. - Financial Sector • Asian Banks: Although no specific names are mentioned, several banks in Asia have experienced pronounced volatility, being affected by the environment of uncertainty and concerns about asset quality in the region. • Small cap indices: The Russell 2000, which groups smaller U.S. companies, has fallen 6.6% and accumulated a loss of over 20% since its record high in November, also reflecting the sensitivity of the financial sector in the current environment. S&P500 Analysis Looking at the one hour chart we can see that since April 2nd, a lower bell curve has already started, despite the fact that the Price Control Point (POC) is located in the area where it was trading in the early hours of yesterday's Asian trading day at around 5624 points. This fall related to the news has caused the markets to discount the price by -6.84% and around 2.34% at yesterday's American opening. As soon as the U.S. session began, the conditions were in place again to continue the fall that seemed to have slowed down during the European day, but it was only a bearish consolidation. At this moment, the US premarket seems to have stopped the fall that generated a third bell in the Asian session. Checking the RSI, it has moved from 70% on Wednesday at 18:00 to 23% in today's Asian session. So it could be that today's day will not be as black as yesterday's, but for the moment the bearish mid-range crossover started on Wednesday has only expanded. As for the average volume on both day 2 and 3 the volume has been similar to the openings of other days, so in this sense it is not something that can reveal additional information but only represents that this fall is the result of the “power of fear of tariffs in the market”. A Global Landscape of Uncertainty Trump's announcement has generated a ripple effect in international markets. In the United States, investors are skeptical about the economy's ability to withstand these shocks, which has prompted a search for refuge in assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds and defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications and utilities). Uncertainty is spreading globally: the Nasdaq has fallen by 5.4% and the Nasdaq 100 has lost 17% of its value since its peak in February. In international markets, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX in Japan have registered declines of 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, demonstrating the global scope of the instability. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Short
by ActivTrades
XAU/USD Analysis – Wedge Breakdown & Bearish Trade Setup1. Chart Overview The 15-minute XAU/USD chart shows a descending wedge pattern forming after a price rally. The wedge is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, signaling a gradual weakening of bullish momentum. After consolidating within this wedge, the price has broken down, suggesting a bearish continuation. This setup provides a high-probability short trade with clear entry, stop-loss, and multiple take-profit levels. 2. Key Technical Elements A) Chart Pattern – Descending Wedge Breakdown A descending wedge is typically a bullish reversal pattern when forming at the bottom of a downtrend. However, in this case, it appears at the end of a corrective move, making it a bearish continuation setup. The upper trendline (black dashed line) acts as resistance, preventing price from breaking higher. The lower trendline (solid blue line) represents temporary support. The wedge narrows as price action contracts, leading to an eventual breakdown. 👉 Breakout Confirmation: The price has broken below the wedge’s support trendline. A minor pullback to retest the broken trendline suggests validation of the breakdown. B) Resistance & Support Levels 1️⃣ Resistance Level (Sell Zone) – $3,100 to $3,135 This area previously acted as a supply zone, rejecting bullish attempts. Price was unable to sustain above this level, leading to further downside pressure. Stop-loss should be placed above this level ($3,135.57) to protect against invalidation. 2️⃣ Support Level (Buy Zone) – $3,050 to $3,056 This was a previous reaction zone where price briefly bounced before continuing lower. Now acting as Take Profit 1 (TP1) at $3,056.58. 3️⃣ Breakout & Retest After breaking the wedge, price retested the trendline but failed to reclaim it, confirming the bearish trend. 3. Trade Setup & Execution 🔵 Entry Point: Short trade activation upon the breakdown and retest of the wedge structure. Price rejection at the trendline confirms seller strength. 🔴 Stop-Loss: Placed at $3,135.57, slightly above recent swing highs. This protects against false breakouts or sudden reversals. 🎯 Take Profit Levels: TP1 ($3,056.58): First target where buyers might step in. TP2 ($3,022.39): Midway target, acting as another strong support. TP3 ($2,985.44): Final target where price may stabilize or reverse. 4. Market Context & Confirmation Indicators 📉 Bearish Confirmation: Strong downward momentum suggests continued selling pressure. Price action is failing to make new highs, confirming lower highs and lower lows. 📊 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): The trade offers a favorable RRR, as the downside potential is significantly larger than the stop-loss range. ⚡ Additional Confirmation: A strong bearish candle confirmed the breakout, rejecting higher levels. Potential support breakouts suggest that price could reach TP3 if bearish momentum continues. 5. Conclusion – Trading Strategy Summary ✅ Pattern Identified: Descending Wedge Breakdown (Bearish) ✅ Trade Direction: Short (Sell) ✅ Entry Trigger: Breakout & Retest of the Trendline ✅ Stop-Loss: Above $3,135.57 (Wedge Resistance Zone) ✅ Take Profit Targets: TP1: $3,056.58 TP2: $3,022.39 TP3: $2,985.44 📌 Final Thoughts: This setup provides a high-probability trade with a clear breakdown structure and downside potential. If the price continues to respect the bearish trend, reaching all TP levels is likely. However, traders should monitor for reversal signals and manage risk accordingly. 🔔 Risk Warning: Always use proper risk management and adjust positions according to market conditions! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold Price Action Alert: Bearish Breakdown AheadGold is consolidating within a Triangle Pattern on the 30-minute timeframe, signaling potential volatility. A confirmed breakdown below the support level could trigger a strong bearish move toward the $2,990 target. Key Levels: Resistance: $3,110 - $3,147 Support: $3,098 - $3,055 Target: $2,994 Watch for a decisive breakout and volume confirmation before entering a trade. Stay cautious and manage risk accordingly! Must Support Me Share My Idea With Your Firends Mention Your Feed back Comment Section
TVC:GOLDShort
by Gold_Traders_Team
Aud/Usd Long Term SellAud is weak. So has also Usd been this week. But, what I'm looking for here is long term picture. Institutions are shorting Aud and buying Usd. This we can see looking at COT reports and priceaction. Looking at monthly and weekly charts bulls have difficulties to move price higher. Simply put, sellers are holding their resistance at 0.6400 level and price is ranging in side movement. Also, Aud had a strong push up from 0.6240 level after US put tarrifs on foreign countries on April 2nd. Despite this price was pushed down again on April 4th. Entry: 0.62400 SL: 0.65000 TP: 0.5800 For best performance: trade in small size and scale into trade. This gives you opportunity to DCA with small size while keeping risk down.
Short
by VarisSvard
28% Intraday Price Explosion—Go home Bears!We’ve just witnessed an extreme intraday surge of over 28% within roughly 40 minutes, fueled by significantly higher volume. This kind of sudden spike often signals a strong wave of bullish buying, and can be the start of a larger rally if momentum holds. However, dramatic moves like this are prone to swift pullbacks as traders lock in profits. Keep an eye on whether price consolidates above new support levels—if so, it could be a stepping stone to further upside.
BINANCE:FILUSD
by brolal
Bullish Divergence and the Impact of Trump’s TariffsOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, I’m currently spotting a clear bullish divergence. This type of divergence is a technical pattern that suggests that, despite recent price drops, the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential upward move could be on the horizon. It shows that the index has underlying strength, which the price hasn’t fully reflected yet — making a bullish reversal very likely in the short to mid-term. In this context, the recent drop in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, especially targeting China and other countries. However, based on my analysis, I believe that these tariffs were more of a negotiation tactic than a long-term economic strategy. And now that things are clearly not going as expected, I’m convinced that Trump will be forced to scale back the tariffs or start accepting less favorable trade agreements just to stop the bleeding — because I highly doubt he will allow this sharp market decline to continue unchecked. Why tariffs aren’t coherent or beneficial for the global economy Tariffs are additional taxes on imports. Although they’re often marketed as a way to protect local industries, in reality, they increase prices for consumers and destabilize global supply chains. The result is damaging for both the countries imposing the tariffs and those receiving them. In the case of the U.S., despite Trump’s promises, these tariffs are actually hurting American companies that rely on imported materials and products, leading to higher internal costs and squeezing consumers. Worse yet, this ongoing trade war has created a climate of global economic uncertainty, which is driving down investment and confidence. That uncertainty has translated into market selloffs around the world, and the S&P 500’s current decline is a direct reflection of that. Importantly, it’s U.S. businesses — not foreign governments — who are absorbing the cost of these tariffs. What to expect going forward Despite the pressure from tariffs, I believe that Trump — seeing the damage already being done to the markets — will have no choice but to start dialing things back. My take is that to avoid a deeper economic hit and restore investor confidence, the U.S. will likely pursue more balanced deals, even if it means compromising a bit. If this scenario plays out, I expect the S&P 500 to begin recovering, especially as investor uncertainty fades. The bullish divergence on the chart further reinforces the idea that once these external political and economic pressures ease, the market could see a strong and sharp rebound. Conclusion Trump’s tariffs were intended as leverage — but they’re clearly backfiring and doing more harm than good. The current S&P 500 correction, in my opinion, is actually a buying opportunity for those with a long-term view. With potential tariff reductions and fairer trade deals on the horizon, the market is likely to rebound strongly, especially with the bullish divergence we’re seeing on the charts. Markets may have already priced in the worst, and now we’re seeing the first technical signals of a potential turnaround. If confirmed, the price could begin to rally significantly in the coming days or weeks.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EmmanuelCova
Is this the perfect time to buy Bitcoin? Hello, While the significant market correction since January 2025 has left many feeling fearful, we believe this presents a perfect opportunity for those with a long-term investment horizon. The recent pullback in asset prices, particularly in the cryptocurrency space and equities, has created an attractive entry point for seasoned investors. President Trump's ongoing commitment to positioning the United States as the global capital for cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin as a key component of the nation's reserves, reinforces the enduring fundamental strength of this digital asset. Despite the short-term volatility, Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain robust, supported by this high-level governmental endorsement . Since its peak in January, Bitcoin has experienced a correction exceeding 25%, bringing it to levels that we view as an ideal accumulation zone. Our technical analysis further confirms this perspective, as the cryptocurrency approaches a critical upward trendline, suggesting that buyers may soon step in to drive a resurgence. Additionally, the MACD indicator is on the cusp of a bullish zero crossover, providing additional confirmation of an impending rebound. For patient, forward-thinking investors, we strongly recommend initiating or increasing Bitcoin positions at these current prices. By adopting a disciplined, long-term approach and weathering the near-term fluctuations, you can position yourself to capitalize on the substantial upside potential as Bitcoin's trajectory aligns with the supportive stance of the U.S. government. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:BTCUSDLong
by thesharkke
The Trump's disruption of globalizationHello, The trump tarrifs are currently creating a perfect storm for long term investors. This is the best time to use the Newsflows & Tradingview news to understand whats going on & how it can impact your trading. Below are some of the things we see: President Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiation tool is not a new strategy, but his latest approach signals that President Trump is very keen on industrializing America. The president has made it clear that the tariffs have 3 goals They can be used to raise money for the government just like taxes They can be used to redistribute money from consumers towards domestic producers since they discourage against imports. They can be used to realign global growth strategically shifting industries We do not see a significant amount of money being raised from tariffs to offset taxes. However, as higher tariffs make it costlier for companies to manufacture abroad and export to the U.S., we anticipate a growing number of firms will relocate their production facilities to American soil. This will be great for the American labour force because it accounts for more jobs and will greatly align how global trade will move on going forward. However, this strategy is not without its complexities. In today’s interconnected world, manufacturing relies on intricate supply chains, with components sourced from multiple countries. Such disruptions will affect the US market as well and trickle down to the end consumer. Below are some of the tariffs imposed on major trade partners 25% on foreign made cars 20% on the European Union 34% on China 26% on India 24% on China Countries are threatening to strike back with countermeasures of their own. The USA treasury secretary has warned that countries that try to counter the tariffs will be dealt with separately. We see a direct impact on countries that heavily depend on exports to the USA as being the biggest losers in this conversation as they will have to relook at their markets once again. These countries may include China, Mexico and Germany. These countries may need to relook at the rest of the world to fill up the demand that used to go to the USA. While many analysts predicted that these tariffs would drive inflation higher, we see a different outcome. The economic slowdown caused by retaliatory tariffs could actually put downward pressure on prices. On top of that, oil prices have remained low, further helping to keep inflation in check. In the long term we see a stronger US economy and more opportunities for companies that manufacture in the USA and have greater demand there. www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com All the fundamentals coupled with technicals will give you better entry views and allow you better rest once you deploy your funds. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:USTECLong
by thesharkke
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 4, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD briefly broke above 1.32000 for the first time in six months on Thursday and climbed to fresh highs amid widespread weakness in the US Dollar. The Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs and flat tariffs knocked the legs out from under market sentiment, despite a delayed reaction to the tariff announcements that followed after US markets closed on Wednesday. A fairly quiet calendar of economic publications is expected in the UK this week. However, investor attention will be focused on Friday's release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data could have a major impact on market sentiment as the US economy enters a post-tariff phase. The March employment report is predicted to be a marker of sorts for the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies. In addition, the ISM's US services business activity index (PMI) for March, released on Thursday, added to the negativity by falling to 50.8, its lowest level in nine months. The drop in the index was one of the fastest since the pandemic began. Weakening business activity and declining consumer optimism began before the tariffs went into effect, and are unlikely to normalize quickly anytime soon. President Donald Trump approved the imposition of a 10 percent duty on all imports starting April 5, and the counter tariffs took effect on April 9. Analysts at Fitch Ratings believe U.S. GDP growth will be lower than the March forecast, which had previously been adjusted downward. The agency also warned that the effect of the tariff policy may affect the decisions of the Federal Reserve: the Fed may suspend the easing of monetary policy while it assesses the impact of duties on inflation and labor indicators. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.30900, SL 1.30200, TP 1.32000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
"XAU/USD Bearish Momentum Continues –Will Gold Break Below $3060📉 XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis – 1H Timeframe 🔹 Resistance Levels: $3,135.69 (Major Resistance) $3,100.14 (Intermediate Resistance) 🔹 Support Levels: $3,059.69 (First Key Support) $3,037.41 (Second Support) $2,994.18 - $2,982.53 (Strong Demand Zone) 🔺 Market Structure & Trend Gold is currently in a downtrend after facing rejection from the $3,135 zone. A bearish structure is forming, with lower highs and lower lows. The price attempted a recovery but faced resistance near $3,100, suggesting a possible continuation of the bearish move. 📊 Technical Outlook ✅ Bearish Confirmation: If price fails to break above $3,100, we may see a continuation toward the $3,060 support. ✅ Breakdown Confirmation: If $3,060 breaks, gold could further drop to $3,037 or even $2,994-$2,982 (major demand zone). ✅ Bullish Recovery: A strong close above $3,100 may invalidate the bearish scenario and lead to a retest of $3,135. 🔥 Trading Plan 🔻 Short Entry: Around $3,100 with SL above $3,110, TP at $3,060 and $3,037. 🔹 Long Entry: If price reaches $3,037 and shows reversal signals, TP at $3,080 and $3,100. 📌 Key Watch: Price action at $3,100 (resistance) Support reaction at $3,060 and $3,037 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and follow your trading plan! 📊📉🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXTRADELIVEUSA
2
Structural analysis and operation suggestions after gold washAnalysis of gold market trend: Gold fluctuated quite a lot yesterday. It rose at the opening yesterday, rising to nearly 60 US dollars, and then fell back after being blocked at the 3167 line. However, it fell below 3100, and the lowest to the top and bottom conversion was around 3054, a drop of nearly 114 US dollars. Beyond expectations, it pulled back to 80 US dollars, and the daily line finally closed with a cross Yin line. The rapid roller coaster is too scary. The market volatility is too large, so you can only watch more and do less. If you encounter non-agricultural data, according to yesterday's trend, the market may not be so big today. After all, it has already ended yesterday. When the price fell sharply, and then there was a sharp rebound to stand firm at 3100, the market of gold yesterday was thrilling, a super roller coaster, and the difficulty of gold operation has increased a lot. However, this kind of market is rare after all. After the ups and downs of gold, it will return to normal. Although today's non-agricultural data, I personally tend to fluctuate in a large range. It is estimated that it will not break yesterday's high point or yesterday's low point. If combined with silver, gold is still oscillating and bearish. At present, it should peak in the short term, and it will choose a direction after a correction. Gold technical analysis: Therefore, gold is not as strong as before, so it is possible for gold to rise or fall in this state. Pay attention to the previous high of 3150 on the upside, and pay attention to the gains and losses of 3055 on the downside. The 4-hour cycle has cleverly entered the oscillation range. Although the market has gone out of the big drop space, the 4-hour cycle Bollinger has not opened, and the moving average system has not diverged. The effective range for the time being is within 3085/3135. Therefore, if there is no large fluctuation on Friday, you can refer to the range of the 4-hour cycle to do high-altitude and low-multiple transactions. The 1-hour moving average of gold still shows signs of turning downward, but the rise of gold in the US market has not allowed the 1-hour moving average of gold to enter the dead cross pattern, but the gold bulls are not very strong. Of course, there is also the impact of non-agricultural data. It is expected that after the big rise and fall on Thursday, the impact of Friday's data will not be great. Before the release of non-agricultural data, we should operate in the range of 3120-3066. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is to short on rebound and long on pullback. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3120-3125 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3054-3066 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. We must control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist single operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday. Welcome to experience, exchange real-time market conditions, and follow real-time orders. Gold operation strategy: Short order strategy: Strategy 1: Short gold rebound near 3120-3125, stop loss 6 points, target near 3100-3085, break to see 3065 line; Long order strategy: Strategy 2: Long gold pullback near 3070-3065, stop loss 6 points, target near 3100-3090, break to see 3110 line;
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel
The global markets have spoken: The trade war is on. Hello traders This chart layout is not new. See my original Idea from February 23rd. The wrecking ball is not gaining momentum. It reached supersonic speed yesterday and shattered the illusion that all is well on the blue planet. The United States of America has upended the Global order that took 80 years to establish after WWII and financial markets that are still dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic on some levels. And all of this to soothe the ego of the Narcissist in Chief. If you have not grabbed these charts by now, I once again invite you to do so. Maybe it will help with trading decisions, maybe not. As for my own portfolio of long term stocks, I cashed out in February and my FX trading is also on hold. I have no desire to chase my own tail at this point. Best wishes to you all. And, mid terms are not that far away... Wisconsin has already spoken.
TVC:US10Y
by jvrfxalerts
Tariffs are implemented-good news is all out!US President Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imported goods and higher tariffs on some major trading partners, which caused shocks in global financial markets. Gold prices once rose to a historical high of around 3167, but technical indicators showed that gold was overbought in the short term, and bulls temporarily chose to take profits, resulting in an avalanche of gold bulls. Multiple institutional positions were obviously fleeing, and retail investors' long positions were liquidated, leading to a large correction in gold on Thursday; although gold fell, it was easy to rebound after encountering key split support, so this is an opportunity to participate. Gold closed March with a strong Yang, recovering the retracement in February while further rising, moving away from the trend line resistance after the breakthrough. The trend of this month also maintains the bullish momentum to continue to strengthen, and is expected to stabilize above the trend line resistance after the breakthrough, suggesting that the market will enter a new bull market space in the future, and will hopefully hit the $3,500 mark target; Gold has currently broken through the trend line pressure linked to the rising trend high point in the past 16 months, and the current trend is also moving further away. The main chart trend moving averages maintain a bullish arrangement without signs of weakening, and the attached chart indicators also maintain bullish signal development, suggesting that it is expected to open up further room for growth; However, the bullish momentum is weakening at present, and there is a retracement to collect the inverted top form. Therefore, if it falls below the resistance of the rising trend channel this week or next week, the market is expected to wait for another retracement to the support of the rising trend channel before climbing again. Investment strategy: Buy gold at 3100, target 3130 Sell gold at 3138, target 3100
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HarveyAckerman