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Fundamental Analysis

OB APT/USDT - HamadOB APT/USDT - Hamad identify the Order Block, How to Identify Order Blocks: Identifying order blocks involves looking for specific price action patterns and characteristics on a chart. Here's a breakdown of key elements to look for:   Impulsive Move: Order blocks are typically formed just before a strong, directional price movement (an "impulsive move"). This move suggests that the large orders within the block were the catalyst for the price surge or decline.   Consolidation or Accumulation/Distribution: Before the impulsive move, you'll often see a period of consolidation or sideways price action. This represents the area where the large orders were being accumulated (before a bullish move) or distributed (before a bearish move) without causing a significant price change initially. The Last Opposing Candle: The most commonly identified order block is the last candle that moves in the opposite direction of the subsequent impulsive move. Bullish Order Block: In an uptrend, look for the last bearish (down) candle before a strong bullish (up) move breaks above previous highs. The range of this last bearish candle becomes your bullish order block. Bearish Order Block: In a downtrend, look for the last bullish (up) candle before a strong bearish (down) move breaks below previous lows. The range of this last bullish candle becomes your bearish order block.   Significant Volume: While not always explicitly visible on standard candlestick charts, order blocks often coincide with higher-than-average trading volume during their formation and the subsequent impulsive move. Volume indicators can help confirm the presence of institutional activity.   Engulfing Patterns: Some traders look for engulfing candlestick patterns as potential order blocks, where a larger candle "engulfs" the previous smaller candle(s), indicating a strong shift in momentum.   Unmitigated Zones: A key characteristic of a potentially strong order block is that price has not yet returned to fully test or "mitigate" it after its formation. The idea is that the remaining unfilled orders within this unmitigated block could cause a strong reaction when price eventually revisits it. Steps to Identify Order Blocks: Identify a Strong Trend or Impulsive Move: Look for significant price движения that break structure (swing highs or lows). Locate the Consolidation or Range Before the Move: Pinpoint the area where price was trading sideways before the impulsive move began. Find the Last Opposing Candle: Identify the last candle that moved against the direction of the impulsive move within or at the end of the consolidation. Mark the Order Block: Draw a zone encompassing the high and low (or open and close, depending on the strategy) of that last opposing candle. Consider Volume (Optional): Use volume indicators to see if there was significant activity during the formation of the potential order block.   Look for Unmitigated Zones: Determine if the price has already returned to and significantly interacted with the identified order block. Unmitigated blocks are often considered higher probability.   Important Considerations: Order blocks are not always perfect predictors of future price action. They work best when used in confluence with other technical analysis tools and an understanding of market structure and liquidity.   Higher timeframe order blocks tend to be more significant than those on lower timeframes.   Not every large candle is an order block. Context is crucial. Look for the characteristics mentioned above. By understanding what order blocks are and how to identify them, traders can gain valuable insights into potential areas of institutional interest and improve their trading strategies.
by Eghdani
Trade Idea: US30 Long ( BUY LIMIT )Technical Justification: 1. Daily Chart: • Price has recently bounced strongly from a significant support zone around 37,675, confirming a bullish rejection. • RSI is rising from oversold levels (currently around 48), showing momentum is shifting upwards. • MACD is still negative but starting to converge, signaling a potential reversal in the mid-term. 2. 15-Minute Chart: • Strong bullish move, breaking through previous structure highs. • MACD and RSI are both in bullish territory, RSI ~63, not yet overbought. • Price consolidating around 40,090, suggesting possible continuation. 3. 3-Minute Chart: • Micro trend is clearly bullish. • Minor consolidation after a push upward — ideal for breakout or pullback entry. • RSI at ~49, healthy for continuation, MACD slightly bullish. ⸻ Fundamental Backdrop (as of now): • Earnings season in the US is ongoing with strong reports from major companies. • Rate cut expectations later in the year are improving market sentiment. • Recent data suggests soft landing scenario, supporting risk-on assets like equities. ⸻ Trade Setup: • Direction: Long (Buy) • Entry: 40,050 (pullback entry) • Stop Loss (SL): 39,750 (below recent breakout base) • Take Profit (TP): 40,650 FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Long
by KeN-WeNzEl
Gold Retreats After Trump Confirms China Talks 📌 Gold Retreats After Trump Confirms China Talks – Political Noise Drives Volatility 🧨📉 Gold (XAU/USD) saw a sharp intraday drop following comments from President Trump, who confirmed that trade talks with China are “ongoing” — despite China denying any official negotiations had taken place. The market interpreted this as a signal of de-escalation, prompting a short-term price correction. Gold had previously rallied past $3,500/oz, supported by a weaker USD and strong demand from bargain hunters after last week’s sharp decline. However, the current political contradictions and tariff headlines are creating erratic moves across all asset classes. 🌍 Fundamental Context The USD weakened, stocks lost momentum, and risk sentiment shifted after a confusing round of statements from the US and China. Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose slightly, reflecting a resilient labour market amid tariff-related headwinds. Today’s Core Retail Sales data in the US could add more volatility heading into the weekly candle close. It’s Friday — expect possible liquidity sweeps and aggressive price spikes as the market prepares for weekend risk-off moves. 📊 Trading Outlook – 26 April We're seeing signs of a tactical pullback, but long setups should be delayed until political headlines stabilise. Focus on intraday reaction zones — not aggressive positioning. 🔻 SELL ZONES 3384 – 3386 • SL: 3390 • TP: 3380 → 3376 → 3372 → 3368 → 3364 → 3360 → ??? 3406 – 3408 • SL: 3412 • TP: 3400 → 3396 → 3392 → 3388 → 3384 → 3380 → 3370 → 3360 🟢 BUY ZONES 3288 – 3286 • SL: 3282 • TP: 3292 → 3296 → 3300 → 3304 → 3310 3270 – 3268 • SL: 3264 • TP: 3274 → 3278 → 3282 → 3286 → 3290 🛡️ Final Notes & Strategy Avoid rushing BUY entries — allow Price to complete its corrective phase and wait for structure and confirmation. Today’s Core Retail Sales (US) could trigger a fresh wave of volatility. It’s also weekly close Friday, so prepare for potential false breaks and stop hunts. ✅ Stick to your TP/SL. Protect your capital first — clarity will come when the dust settles. 💬 Are you watching for a short-term bounce or planning to fade strength near resistance? Let us know in the comments below! 👇👇👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
1
EURJPY Short 4/25/2025EUR/JPY Short – 4th Rejection from Key Supply Zone + Bearish Engulfing Into Range Looking for a short setup on EUR/JPY after a clean multi-timeframe rejection from the upper boundary of a well-respected zone. Daily Chart: Price has tested this trendline resistance zone four times this week — failing each time. Today’s rejection at 163.151 marks the 4th consecutive denial of higher ground. Structurally, this is shaping up as a textbook range trade. 4H Chart: The latest 4-hour candle printed a sharp doji right at the supply zone — a strong indecision signal that often precedes reversal. Friday flows are light, so it’s likely a final tap before the weekend. 1H Chart: Price respected the zone all London session. We now see several wick rejections, followed by a bearish engulfing candle on the most recent hourly close — confirming seller presence. News Context: No major upcoming data. Tokyo CPI dropped during Asia session and came in strong — that could lend strength to the yen and support downside momentum from here. Target: Looking for a move down to the bottom of the range near 161.142 Entry: Near 163.151 Stop: Above supply Target: 1:3.69 R:R Note: Could take time to play out — likely into next week if not into New York session follow-through. This is a clean supply rejection play with a well-defined range and no macro news in the way.
Short
by Big6Financial
SLC Brazilian Agricultural Producer and Farmland Investor ThesisExecutive Summary We are overweighting SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) over U.S. agribusiness stocks (BG, ADM, MOS, CTVA, FPI) in the current macro environment. The key drivers are: Geopolitical arbitrage (Trump-Russia détente benefits Brazilian exporters more than U.S. firms). FX tailwinds (weaker USD boosts BRL-denominated farmland values). Commodity cycle positioning (SLC’s cotton/soy mix outperforms U.S. corn/ethanol plays). Valuation gap (SLCE3 trades at 9.1x P/E vs. 14x+ for U.S. peers). Top Trade: Long SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) I. Macro & Geopolitical Edge: Why Brazil Wins 1. Trump’s Pro-Russia Policy Reshapes Fertilizer & Grain Flows Sanctions Relief: Russian potash/phosphate exports resume → BrasilAgro (AGRO3) and SLC benefit from 25-30% lower input costs (U.S. farmers already hedged). U.S. Grain Export Risk: If Trump pushes Ukraine grain deals, ADM/BG lose pricing power in EU/Asia markets. 2. USD Weakness Favors BRL-Linked Assets Fed Cuts + Trump’s Dollar Policy: BRL appreciation (R$4.60/USD by 2026E) boosts: SLC’s USD-linked revenue (68% of sales). Land appraisals (Brazilian farmland up 18% CAGR in USD terms). U.S. Companies Hurt: ADM/BG’s LatAm earnings face translation drag. 3. BRICS Neutrality vs. U.S.-China Decoupling Brazil remains trusted supplier to both China and EU (no trade wars). U.S. agribusiness (ADM/BG) exposed to: China soy tariffs (if Trump escalates). EU carbon taxes (ADM’s ethanol margins at risk). II. Company-Specific Advantages: SLC vs. U.S. Peers A. SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) – The Optimal Play Metric SLC Agrícola U.S. Peers (ADM/BG/MOS) P/E (2025E) 9.1x 12-18x EBITDA Margin 38% (2025E) 8-15% FX Benefit BRL appreciation USD translation drag Geopolitical Shield Neutral (BRICS) Exposed to U.S.-China wars Key Catalysts: Cotton Supercycle: Trump’s EU-China trade war could spike prices (SLC has 40% exposure). Hidden Water Rights: 120k hectares of irrigated land (R$3.2B unreported NAV). Ferrogrão Railway Completion (2026): Cuts logistics costs by 18%. B. U.S. Agribusiness: Relative Weaknesses Stock Key Risk Mitigation ADM Ethanol mandate cuts (Biden hangover) Divesting plants BG Brazilian tax case (R$4.5B liability) Land asset cover MOS Saudi JV delays (CFIUS scrutiny) Fertilizer optionality CTVA Patent cliff (2027+) M&A speculation FPI U.S. farmland cap rate compression Rent escalators III. Conclusion: Why SLC Over U.S. Peers? Geopolitical Arbitrage: Brazil avoids U.S.-China/EU trade wars. FX Leverage: BRL appreciation boosts USD earnings + land values. Commodity Mix: Cotton/soy > corn/ethanol in Trump’s policy regime. Valuation: SLCE3 at 9.1x P/E vs. 14x+ for U.S. stocks.
BMFBOVESPA:SLCE3Long
by beckett_07
USD/JPY(20250425)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Federal Reserve-①Hamack: If economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June ②Waller: It will take until July to get a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy. If tariffs lead to higher unemployment, interest rate cuts may be initiated. ③The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be -2.5%. ④Kashkari: The frequent announcements from Washington have brought challenges to policymakers and everyone. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 142.79 Support and resistance levels: 143.94 143.51 143.23 142.34 142.06 141.63 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 142.79, consider buying, the first target price is 143.23 If the price breaks through 142.34, consider selling, the first target price is 142.06
Long
by Toml1314
AUDUSD(20250425)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Federal Reserve-①Hamack: If economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June ②Waller: It will take until July to get a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy. If tariffs lead to higher unemployment, interest rate cuts may be initiated. ③The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be -2.5%. ④Kashkari: The frequent announcements from Washington have brought challenges to policymakers and everyone. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 0.6387 Support and resistance levels: 0.6454 0.6429 0.6413 0.6361 0.6344 0.6319 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 0.6413, consider buying, the first target price is 0.6429 If the price breaks through 0.6387, consider selling, the first target price is 0.6361
by Toml1314
GBPUSD(20250425)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Federal Reserve-①Hamack: If economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June ②Waller: It will take until July to get a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy. If tariffs lead to higher unemployment, interest rate cuts may be initiated. ③The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be -2.5%. ④Kashkari: The frequent announcements from Washington have brought challenges to policymakers and everyone. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3311 Support and resistance levels: 1.3411 1.3374 1.3350 1.3274 1.3248 1.3211 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3350, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3374 If the price breaks through 1.3311, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3274
Short
by Toml1314
EURUSD(20250425) Today's AnalysisMarket news: Federal Reserve-①Hamack: If economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June ②Waller: It will take until July to get a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy. If tariffs lead to higher unemployment, interest rate cuts may be initiated. ③The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be -2.5%. ④Kashkari: The frequent announcements from Washington have brought challenges to policymakers and everyone. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.1366 Support and resistance levels: 1.1448 1.1417 1.1397 1.1335 1.1315 1.1284 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.1397, consider buying, the first target price is 1.1417 If the price breaks through 1.1366, consider selling, the first target price is 1.1335
Short
by Toml1314
April 25, 2025 - Trump’s Tango, Tech, and Insider DramaHello everyone, it’s April 25, 2025. We’re closing in on Trump’s 100-day mark back in the White House, and if there’s one word to sum up his impact on markets: chaos. With 137 executive orders signed already, he’s turned global markets into a high-stakes rollercoaster though this week saw signs of recovery, confidence remains fragile, and volatility is still running the show. The main trigger? You guessed it: Trump and his tariff diplomacy. After weeks of U-turns, threats, and NYSE:TWTR meltdowns, he’s finally announced that talks with China have begun. That was enough to send the AMEX:SPY up 2%, pull the CME_MINI:NQ1! out of correction territory (+2.74%), and ignite a 5.63% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, even though it’s still miles below its all-time high. OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting at $3,332, BLACKBULL:WTI hovers around $63.21, and INDEX:BTCUSD has skyrocketed to $93,200. Not bad for a week that started in total disarray. Now here’s where things get fishy: US indices started climbing before Trump’s announcement—classic “somebody knew something.” Insider trading? Just your average Thursday. And while Trump claims talks are underway, the Chinese side played coy, denying any ongoing negotiations. Either someone’s lying, or the talks are happening over dim sum in DC. Beyond geopolitics, NASDAQ:GOOG crushed earnings expectations and added a juicy dividend and GETTEX:70B in buybacks, exploding 6% after-hours. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC flopped—flat profits, poor outlook, and a CEO trying to turn cost-cutting into a growth story. The market wasn’t buying it: down 5.7% after-hours. NYSE:NOW , though, is living its best life. Strong results, AI momentum, and federal contracts boosted shares 15%. Other names like NASDAQ:PEP , NYSE:PG , and NASDAQ:AAL warned on the future thanks to—you guessed it—political and economic uncertainty. On the macro front, ECONOMICS:USIJC (US jobless claims) ticked higher, inflation seems to be cooling, and if next week’s PCE and employment data confirm the slowdown, the Fed might just blink and cut rates in May. Market hopes are pinned on Powell holding steady—unless, of course, Trump decides to live-tweet through it. Futures are up 0.37% ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) this morning, signaling optimism—possibly misplaced—in Trump’s “friendly” overtures toward China. Let’s just say we’re one golf game away from another market tantrum. Enjoy your weekend, stay alert, and cross your fingers for a quiet Sunday tweet-wise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SmartApingAI
The Day AheadMacro Data to Watch: US: April Kansas City Fed Services Index – May give insight into regional business sentiment. UK: April GfK Consumer Confidence – Early read on sentiment post-budget. March Retail Sales – Important for GBP and rate expectations. Japan: April Tokyo CPI – Key inflation indicator ahead of BoJ policy. France: April Business Confidence – Watch for any signs of slowing Eurozone momentum. Canada: February Retail Sales – Impacts CAD, potential rate path hints. Central Bank Watch: BoE’s Greene speaks – May offer clues on UK rate path amid inflation stickiness. Earnings to Watch (Market Movers): US: AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, HCA Healthcare, Charter Communications, Schlumberger, Centene, LyondellBasell Focus on healthcare, consumer staples, and energy names for sector sentiment. Asia: Ping An Insurance, Keyence, Advantest – Key bellwethers for China and Japan. This lineup could drive volatility across FX (GBP, JPY, CAD), equity indices, and sector ETFs. Watch sentiment shifts based on inflation data and earnings surprises. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Investors Turn to Gold as Tariff Tensions PersistGold is trading near $3,330 on Friday and is on track to record its third consecutive weekly gain. The increase in prices is primarily driven by heightened safe-haven demand, as uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade agreement continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Although Chinese officials have publicly denied the continuation of negotiations, President Trump stated that discussions are still in progress. Adding to the cautious outlook, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that any progress would depend on the reduction of existing tariffs, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term resolution. Key resistance is at $3410, followed by $3,500 and $3,600. Support stands at $3315, then $3290 and $3250.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
BTC/USD Bearish Reversal SetupKey Elements: 1. Red Zone (Resistance Area): This is a supply zone or resistance area, indicating selling pressure between $94,000–$94,500. Labeled "sl" – this is likely the Stop Loss level, which means if price breaks above it, the bearish idea may be invalidated. 2. Bearish Arrow: Suggests that the trader expects the price to reject the resistance area and move downward. This is a sell/short signal. 3. Green Zones (TP1, TP2, TP3): These are the Take Profit levels for the short trade: TP1: Around $93,000 TP2: Around $91,800 TP3: Around $90,000 4. Trendlines: A red descending trendline meets the resistance zone, adding confluence. Green ascending trendline (broken in the plan) may have been a rising support, indicating a trend shift. --- Trade Idea Summary: Strategy Type: Short (Sell) Setup Entry: Near $94,000–$94,300 (resistance area) Stop Loss (SL): Slightly above resistance (~$94,500+) Target Profits (TP): TP1: $93,000 TP2: $91,800 TP3: $90,000 --- Purpose: This is a classic supply zone rejection setup, with expectations that BTC will retrace after hitting resistance. The trader is betting on a short-term reversal. Would you like help planning an entry/exit for this setup or running a risk/reward calculation?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XAUUSD_MASTER003