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Fundamental Analysis

Bearish opportunity in PEPE1. On the daily chart price has purged to Daily SIBI LOW - This is my main PD array 2. On H1 we have MSS confirming orderflow 3. We have draws as the sellside liquidity On the fundamental side: "The SEC just said that meme coins are generally NOT considered securities under US federal law. They also said that meme coins have "limited or no use" and do not need to be registered with the SEC. "Did the SEC basically just call meme coins so worthless that they're not even considered a security? " "quoted from the, The Kobeissi Letter on X/Twitter"
Short
by Sherman_Trades
This Is NOT a Random Pump – OM’s Game Plan EXPOSED!🚀 The Market is Not Random—It’s Engineered. OM/USDT has demonstrated a highly structured and repetitive pattern, adhering to a disciplined cycle that has remained intact despite the broader market chaos. While Bitcoin’s turbulence has sent many altcoins into a tailspin, OM has defied the storm, moving with precision, unaffected by the market-wide liquidation waves. But the real question remains: Is OM truly breaking free, or is this a meticulously designed liquidity trap? 📊 The Hidden Forces Behind OM’s Rally 🔍 Liquidity Manipulation & Whale Games The price action on OM/USDT suggests a calculated and deliberate structure, rather than a chaotic, organic move. The market has formed consecutive Rally-Base-Rally (RBR) patterns, signaling a well-orchestrated liquidity accumulation phase. 📌 What’s unusual? Bitcoin’s corrections have had minimal impact on OM—why? Is institutional capital accumulating? Or is this a manufactured illusion to lure in liquidity before a brutal reversal? 📈 Key Levels That Will Define the Next Move 🔹 Critical Resistance: $8.71251 → If broken with volume, expect a rapid move to $9.74144. 🔻 Key Support Levels: $7.02307 → The first safety zone where price might retest before the next leg up. $6.31256 → A crucial support zone—breaking below this invalidates the bullish structure. ⚠️ Warning: If OM closes a strong 4H candle below $6.31256, expect a cascading sell-off as liquidity is flushed out. 🔍 The Bigger Picture: A True Breakout or a Liquidity Trap? 📌 Scenario 1 - Bullish Continuation ✅ A clean breakout above $8.71251 with high volume would confirm the next leg toward $9.74144 and beyond. 📌 Scenario 2 - The Fakeout & Reversal ❌ If price taps $8.7-$9 and immediately retraces, this could signal a liquidity trap—forcing late buyers into a mass liquidation event. 📡 The Fundamental Factor: Is There a Catalyst? 🔎 Currently, OM lacks a major fundamental catalyst. No significant exchange listings. No major partnerships announced. Yet, the price is climbing aggressively—why? Could this be a coordinated play by insiders before an upcoming event? Or is this a perfect setup to drain liquidity before a controlled dump? 📢 Final Verdict: Play Smart, Not Emotional 💰 This is NOT a market for the weak. This is a battlefield where whales feast on retail traders who chase FOMO and ignore the deeper game being played. 🔥 Watch the key levels, track Bitcoin’s movement, and most importantly—stay ahead of the trap. 📌 What’s your take? Is OM set for a true breakout, or is this the perfect bull trap engineered by the big players? 🚀💬 If you find this analysis valuable, like & follow for more deep market insights. With respect, Hamid #OMUSDT #Crypto #Altcoins #Bitcoin #MarketManipulation #LiquidityTrap #WhaleGames #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #SmartMoneyMoves #Altseason #TradingStrategy #Breakout #SupportAndResistance
by SeyedHamid822
1
BITCOIN FINDING 60,000After successful bull-run and already hit six digit mark for the first time ever, BITCOIN seems ready for 30%-40% retracement to 60,000-70,000 area. If current monthly candle fail to break previous month high, it will be more attractive in focusing on sell. Furthermore, there was demand zone at that retracement target area. Demand zone plus break of structure at that area can be enough reason to see price rebounds and continue making uptrend movement. Using basic candlestick pattern, if you expecting price to make bullish movement, you need to see candlestick making open-low-high-close. Then on 2025, new yearly candle will open and retrace a little bit to that area as I said above before continue upwards. You will see clearly on monthly timeframe when price making that pattern. Based on fundamental review, 100,000 can be determined as psychological level for majority of investors to take profit. New year will give new plan for them. Waiting for price to dip and start accumulating back life before this. Large asset management firms will plays important role to shake out retail investors out of the market. What they do? They will make price seem to dip hard but actually only retracement to their buying price. Other than that, their high net worth clients need good risk reward ratio thus buy high will not align with their preference. Good investment cost tend to produce good return.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by haikalbakri
Short AUDUSD The Perfect Storm: Stagflation, GeopoliticsIn a world increasingly defined by geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, a perfect storm is brewing, casting a long shadow over the Australian dollar. The confluence of persistent stagflationary pressures, escalating trade tensions, and a resurgent U.S. dollar is creating a formidable headwind for the AUDUSD pair. This article delves into the intricate web of factors driving this bearish sentiment, offering a comprehensive analysis for macro traders and financial viewers seeking clarity amidst market turbulence. The Stagflationary Grip: A Global Economic Quagmire The global economic landscape is ensnared in a precarious dance between "sticky" inflation and a palpable slowdown. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains stubbornly elevated, while Producer Price Index (PPI) figures signal continued upward pressure on consumer prices. This persistent inflation, coupled with a weakening housing market, declining consumer confidence, and a sharp contraction in global trade activity (as evidenced by the plummeting Shanghai and China Containerized Freight Indices), paints a stark picture of a "Stagflationary Weakness." www.census.gov The Federal Reserve finds itself trapped between a rock and a hard place, grappling with the unenviable task of taming inflation while averting a looming recession. Policy missteps are increasingly probable, further amplifying market anxieties. Geopolitical Fault Lines and Trade Wars: Fueling the Fire Adding to the economic woes are escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The contentious US-Ukraine situation, heightened US-China strategic competition (including technology decoupling and potential military tensions in the South China Sea), and the ever-present threat of cyberattacks are creating an environment of heightened risk aversion. President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, have ignited fears of retaliatory measures and further disruptions to global trade flows. The market's reaction has been swift and decisive, with the S&P 500 experiencing consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing investor unease. The AUDUSD Under Siege: A Technical and Fundamental Breakdown Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD pair is experiencing a decisive bearish breakdown. The U.S. dollar (DXY), fueled by its safe-haven appeal and the prevailing risk-off sentiment, is exhibiting robust strength, targeting 109.900. This dollar resurgence is exerting significant downward pressure on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. Gaining Traction Amidst Global Uncertainty The AUDUSD has decisively breached the critical 0.64000 level, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. While rising commodity prices, particularly in energy, have historically provided support for the AUD, the current environment is unique. Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are overshadowing the positive impact of rising commodity prices. Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), confirm the bearish momentum. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending downwards, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Key Support Zone and Outlook: We have identified a key support zone between 0.61435 and 0.60838. This zone represents a potential area of consolidation or a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, given the strong bearish momentum and the prevailing fundamental factors, we anticipate a continued downward trajectory. Impact of Strong Dollar and Risk Aversion" Traders should closely monitor the DXY and global risk sentiment for further confirmation of the bearish trend. Any sustained break of the 0.64000 level would confirm the current outlook. The AUDUSD pair is currently navigating a perfect storm of stagflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and a resurgent U.S. dollar. This confluence of factors has created a compelling bearish outlook, with technical indicators and fundamental analysis aligning to support continued downward momentum. In this environment, vigilance and a deep understanding of the global macroeconomic landscape are paramount. Traders must remain attuned to the evolving geopolitical and economic narratives, adapting their strategies to navigate the turbulent waters of the current market. FX:AUDUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by TyrusL
Patience I think medipharm is a decent company they have a lot going for them and they are on the verge of profitablity, and when call you have Pierre Poilievre in office in Canada all Canadian stocks that aren't terrible are going to be bullish for sure. My average buy in is 7 cents Canadian and if your a US citizen you can literally buy way more then canadains if you have an average salary pos. My price target is 60 cents Canadian but I know this company is going to a couple of dollars here.
TSX:LABSLong
by christiansmithtrades
Hyperliquid $HYPE to $100 once Bitcoin re-establishes an uptrendHyperliquid has found product market fit as the most used on-chain perpetual swap decentralized exchange in crypto. It is consistently among the top 5 in daily revenue among all crypto blockchains, applications, on-chain products etc, most recently often coming up in 3rd behind stablecoin comanies circle (usdc) and tether (usdt). What separates Hyperliquid from the market isn't an irreplicable ux/ui, a completley novel or broad defi offering, no - what separates Hyperliquid is its design, community, and team. Hyperliquid is often talked about as one of the only projects truly building in the original vision of crypto. The team took no VC funding, issued a massive airdrop to the community, and paid themselves only in $ HYPE. The incentives here between the team and the community are well aligned for long term success. Jeff, the founder of Hyperliquid often talks about wanting to build the blockchain to houses all of finance and is owned by the people. Recently Hyperliquid achieved two major milestones, one is the launch of spot Bitcoin available to trade, deposit, and withdraw from the Hyperliquid exchange, and the other was the launch of the HyperEVM, allowing developers to deploy applications on the Hyperliquid blockchain. Both of these verticals will be developed further (more spot, and perpetual offerings, as well as more revenue from applications on the EVM), and this could easily lead to Hyperliquid surpassing Circle in daily revenue before the end of 2025. Now you might be asking, why does the revenue matter for $ HYPE, because most tokens are not designed for any sort of direct value accrual from the native blockchain. Most tokens have insignificant revenue and even if it were to increase it likely would not directly benefit the users (the token price could go up, but the revenue is likely directly benefiting the VCs who funded the project). However, with Hyperliquid, not only is the revenue significant because they built a flagship app with product market fit, it directly benefits the holders of $ HYPE token as a significant portion (%s reported vary between 50+% -95%) goes to buying back $HYPE. Since the token generation event at the end of October, the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund (where revenue goes to buy back $ HYPE) has purchased 4.776% of the circulating supply, almost 16 million $ HYPE tokens worth just over 307 million dollars ($ HYPE 19.2 at time of writing). The assitance fund is consistently buying over a million dollars in $ HYPE per day and this number has clear path for growth from multiple angles. TLDR: Hyperliquid is relatively mispriced versus Solana and Ethereum, and while crypto is in the gutter at the moment, $ HYPE has held up moderately but relatively well. I would not be surprised to see $ HYPE trade as low as $10-$13.5, but this token has the best fundamentals in the game. Additionally, arguably the most competent and incentive aligned team. The market will reprice this over time. Staking hyperliquid or using the hyper EVM has a nonzero chance of being rewarded with another $ HYPE airdrop in the future, as there are still more locked tokens designated for community rewards. $ HYPE to $100+ once Bitcoin re-establishes an uptrend.
PYTH:HYPEUSDLong
by afmerca
Target $95-125 entry for LT investmentTechnicals and Fundamentals - Divergence marked the top - 50-60% pull-backs common --> $95 or $120 - Revenue growing YoY (and backlog is not fully dependent on Ukraine) - Broke below 3-year trendline since 2022 lows, next long-term trendline support at 9-year trendline (also near $95) - 30-40% gross margins. Lower Net income margins (as investing in growth: acquiring Blue Halo, building new facility in Salt Lake City) Headwinds: - Watch March 4th earnings. I expect disappointment (per Ukraine/US difficulties) - Dependent on government purchases "you only have 1 customer in this market" - CEO quote. This is concerning in light of DOGE. However, AVAV could be a winner of shift to UAVs (and cheaper warfare technology in general) Investment Thesis: AVAV is investing in the future with M&A and construction of new facilities. It's revenue is growing steadily and the firm has high future earnings potential. The stock is down big from the war 'bubble' popping, but history shows 50-60% corrections are common, which would align with technical support at or above ~$95. Therefore, I see this move downward as a great buying opportunity for long-term (5+ year) investments. Will target entries $95-125, with focus around 200W MA.
NASDAQ:AVAVLong
by HandsomeSloth
$AAVEUSDT | Key Support Zone 1W🔹 Market Overview: The price has broken its parabolic trend, leading to a sharp drop. Currently, it is testing a critical HTF gap in the $180 - $196 range (0.618 - 0.666 Fibonacci levels). This area must hold to prevent a prolonged correction. 🔍 Trading Plan: 1️⃣ Long entry from $180 - $196 with a strict stop-loss. 2️⃣ If this zone fails, exit the position and look for alternative setups. 📌 Conclusion: 🔥 This is a make-or-break zone—either a local reversal or a deeper drop. A great area for limit orders, but strict risk management is key! 🚀
Long
by Goldfinch_song
EUR/JPY Bearish Outlook 30-60 daysEUR/JPY 30–60 Day Outlook Technical Analysis EUR/JPY has been in a corrective pullback since hitting a multi-year high around ¥164.5 in early January 2025. The pair dropped to a low near ¥154.8 at the end of February  , marking a significant support zone. Support Levels: The mid-150s (around ¥154–¥156) have emerged as key support – this area includes the late-February low (~¥154.8) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2024 rally near ¥152  . A sustained break below ¥154 could open the door to the ¥152 zone or even the psychological ¥150 level if bearish momentum accelerates. Resistance Levels: On the upside, initial resistance lies around ¥159–¥161, which encompasses recent pivot highs  and roughly the 50-day moving average (where the pair’s short-term downtrend line may coincide). Above that, the previous January peak area of ¥164–¥165 is a major resistance; a climb past ¥164.9 would indicate a bullish reversal of the recent downtrend . Moving Averages & Trend: The recent decline has put EUR/JPY below its 50-day moving average, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum. The 100-day MA is flattening, and the 200-day MA (tracking the longer-term trend) appears to be in the mid-150s, near current prices – a decisive move away from this level could signal the next directional trend. Overall, the medium-term trend has turned sideways-to-bearish after a 5-year rally, with a possible head-and-shoulders topping pattern visible on weekly charts . RSI and Momentum: The Relative Strength Index recently approached oversold levels during the February sell-off, indicating the pullback was stretched. On the weekly chart, RSI remains below 50 and is trending lower (yet not deeply oversold), confirming bearish momentum without a clear reversal signal yet . In other words, bounces may occur from oversold conditions, but the momentum favors the downside until RSI and price action break their downtrends. Traders will be watching if RSI can climb above the mid-50s (to signal recovering bullish momentum) or if it rolls over near that level, indicating rallies could be sold. Key Technical Takeaways: EUR/JPY is consolidating above crucial support in the mid-150s. A rebound toward ¥161–¥164 is possible if the support holds (the pair has formed a “sideways pattern” off the ¥154 floor, with scope for an upleg toward ¥164 if ¥161.1 is breached ). However, failure to sustain gains and a break under ¥154 would confirm a downtrend continuation, potentially targeting the next Fibonacci level (~¥152) or lower  . Traders should monitor these support/resistance levels and momentum cues for short-term direction. COT Positioning Trends The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) data reveals a notable shift in market positioning that favors the Japanese yen. Speculators (non-commercial traders) have aggressively built long positions in JPY futures, reflecting a bullish stance on the yen. In fact, combined long contracts held by large speculators and asset managers surged by about 63,000 in a single week – the fastest pace on record – indicating a strong bet on yen strength . This has pushed large speculators’ net positioning on JPY to net-long for the first time since early 2021  . In contrast, these speculative traders have been turning bearish on the euro: late last year, large specs’ net-short positions in euro futures neared their most bearish level since March 2020 , and a proxy COT index for EUR/JPY shows large speculators are now net short EUR/JPY at their most bearish stance in eight years . Asset managers (typically longer-term institutional players) remain net long euro, but even they have slashed their bullish EUR/JPY exposure by ~65% since the peak in mid-2024 . On the other side, commercial hedgers (often businesses and financial institutions hedging currency risk) have taken the opposite positions. The COT report indicates that commercial traders’ yen positioning is near an all-time high (i.e. commercials are extremely long JPY relative to shorts) . This could reflect Japanese exporters hedging against a stronger yen or European importers guarding against EUR/JPY downside. Such an extreme in commercial positioning “reflects a potential sentiment change” in the market . Historically, when speculators and hedgers are this polarized, it often signals a turning point or at least a caution for trend followers – either the crowded trade (yen longs in this case) continues to pay off, or a reversal squeezes those positions. Positioning Implications: The heavy speculative long interest in JPY suggests a market bias toward yen strength (EUR/JPY downside). This aligns with the broader narrative of traders positioning for BOJ tightening and ECB easing (discussed below). However, with so many speculators already on one side of the boat, there’s a risk that if the yen rally loses momentum, a position unwinding could trigger sharp short-term rebounds in EUR/JPY. Still, absent a clear catalyst for euro strength, the COT data tilts the bias toward the yen (EUR/JPY bearish) in the coming weeks. Market sentiment from positioning is therefore a headwind for any sustained EUR/JPY rally, unless fundamentals shift unexpectedly. Fundamental Factors Interest Rates & Central Bank Policy: Monetary policy divergence is a central theme for EUR/JPY. The European Central Bank (ECB) is firmly in an easing cycle now, reacting to cooling inflation and slowing growth in the Eurozone. According to Bloomberg surveys, 97.5% of analysts expect the ECB to cut rates by 25 bps at the upcoming March 6, 2025 meeting  – likely bringing the deposit rate down to ~2.75%. This would mark the ECB’s fourth consecutive rate cut (after aggressive hikes in 2022–2023), clearly reducing the euro’s yield advantage. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has begun moving away from its ultra-loose policy stance. The BOJ already ended its negative rate policy in late 2024 and raised its policy rate to +0.25% , and while an imminent hike in March 2025 is viewed as unlikely (market odds of a March BOJ hike are under 2% ), the trajectory is toward gradual normalization. Analysts expect the BOJ could reach a 1.0% policy rate by end-2025  if wage-driven inflation continues to rise. This narrowing interest rate differential – Eurozone rates coming down while Japanese rates inch up – puts structural pressure on EUR/JPY. The euro had benefited from a carry trade appeal when ECB rates were rising and BOJ was at zero; now that carry advantage is eroding. As one analyst noted, these divergent monetary policies (ECB easing vs. BOJ prepping to tighten) “could make things tricky for EUR/JPY bulls in 2025” . In other words, the fundamental rate bias now favors the yen. Inflation and Monetary Dynamics: Eurozone inflation has been trending lower from its peak, which is why the ECB feels comfortable cutting rates. Euro area price pressures are moderating toward target, and the ECB is even willing to go “below neutral” on rates to support growth . Meanwhile in Japan, inflation – while lower than Europe’s – has surprised to the upside. Japan’s core CPI has persistently exceeded the BOJ’s 2% target in recent months, and there is “growing evidence that Japan’s economy is running hotter than expected,” as seen in upside surprises in inflation data . This has markets questioning if they are underpricing the risk of a BOJ hike in the near future . In short, inflation trends support a stronger yen: falling EU inflation = dovish ECB, rising Japan inflation (with wage growth) = hawkish tilt from BOJ. GDP Growth & Employment: The growth outlook further underscores the policy divergence. The Eurozone economy has hit a soft patch – downside risks are “emerging” and the ECB has shifted its focus to the lack of growth . High interest rates in 2023 cooled Europe’s economy, and now growth is sluggish enough that unemployment may tick up and the ECB is prioritizing stimulating the economy. Japan’s economy, on the other hand, has shown resilience. Japan’s Q4 GDP beat expectations and overall economic data have outperformed other regions (Japan’s economic surprise index is above its peers) . Stronger growth and extremely low unemployment in Japan (around 2.5% jobless rate) are boosting wage pressures – a positive sign domestically, and one that reinforces BOJ’s case for normalizing policy . By contrast, Eurozone growth is close to stall speed, and unemployment, while relatively low, could rise if the slowdown continues (some Eurozone economies are flirting with recession). Bottom line: a robust Japan vs. a slowing Europe tends to favor the yen over the euro. Capital flows could increasingly favor Japanese assets if growth/inflation prospects there improve, whereas expectations of ECB easing make euro assets slightly less attractive in comparison. Risk Sentiment & Geopolitics: EUR/JPY is also sensitive to global risk sentiment. The Japanese yen is a classic safe-haven currency – it strengthens when investors seek safety (e.g. during equity market sell-offs or geopolitical tensions). In the next 1–2 months, a few factors could stir risk sentiment: for example, the uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. administration’s policies (2025 has brought a change in the White House, and talk of renewed trade tensions or geopolitical shifts under President Trump’s second term could unsettle markets). Analysts note that turbulence from a Trump presidency could increase demand for the yen as a safe haven . Additionally, any escalation in geopolitical hotspots or surprises (such as energy prices affecting Europe disproportionately) would likely see the yen outperform. On the flip side, if global markets stay optimistic (risk-on), the yen might soften as investors deploy capital into higher-yielding or riskier assets (which could help EUR/JPY stabilize). However, given the backdrop – central banks easing in the West, potential trade policy noise, and still-elevated uncertainty – the current market sentiment leans cautious, which tends to benefit JPY. In summary, fundamental drivers favor the yen in the coming weeks. Falling euro area interest rates versus a BOJ slowly stepping toward tightening reduce EUR/JPY’s appeal. Europe’s slower growth and easing inflation vs. Japan’s improving outlook and rising inflation further support this bias. Barring a sharp shift to risk-on sentiment, these fundamental factors should keep downward pressure on EUR/JPY. Seasonality Seasonal patterns in FX can sometimes influence price action, although they are not guarantees. For EUR/JPY (and yen crosses in general), the late first quarter and early second quarter have some noteworthy tendencies: • Fiscal Year-End Yen Strength: Japan’s fiscal year ends on March 31, and traditionally there have been repatriation flows as Japanese firms and investors bring money home. This can lead to yen buying in March, exerting downward pressure on EUR/JPY. Historical records from the Fed note that expectations of Japanese repatriation ahead of March 31 often lead to yen purchases across the board . We could see a similar effect this year, with yen demand picking up in mid-to-late March, which would cap EUR/JPY rallies or even push the pair lower. However, it’s worth noting that this “March yen strength” effect has become less consistent over time (as more corporate hedging smooths out flows). In fact, over the last decade, JPY rose against USD in March only 30% of the time  – meaning in 70% of those years, the yen actually weakened in March. So while repatriation flows are a factor, they don’t guarantee a stronger yen every year. Traders should be aware of the potential for end-of-Q1 volatility but not rely solely on it. • April and Q2 Patterns: Moving into April, some historical data suggest the yen can remain firm. One analysis found USD/JPY tends to decline in April on average , implying yen strength in the early part of Q2. This could be related to Japanese investors being cautious at the start of the new fiscal year or global money continuing to favor safety in spring. For EUR/JPY, if April follows that pattern, we might see the pair testing lower levels (yen stronger) during the month. However, once again seasonals can flip – there have been years where new fiscal-year investment outflows from Japan (e.g. insurance/pension funds buying foreign assets in April) have actually weakened the yen. • Historical Price Tendencies: Looking at multi-year averages, EUR/JPY has not shown a dramatic consistent seasonal bias in March-April. It often depends on the broader macro context of that year. One source notes that April has historically been a strong month for yen (weak USD/JPY), whereas March’s reputation for yen strength is mixed . Also, volatility around the end of Q1 can spike due to fiscal year-end book closing. This year, given the fundamental backdrop (discussed above), seasonality may align with fundamentals – meaning yen strength into late March. But by late April, if repatriation subsides and global markets stabilize, EUR/JPY could find a base. In summary, seasonal factors slightly favor the yen in the March-April period, especially around late March. Traders should watch for possible yen-buying flows as the fiscal year closes. Nonetheless, the seasonal effect is not overwhelming – recent decades show March can just as often buck the old pattern . Therefore, while seasonality adds another piece to the puzzle (tilting bias to a softer EUR/JPY in late Q1), it should be weighed alongside technical and fundamental signals. Expected Trading Range (30–60 Days) Given the current volatility and historical ranges, we anticipate EUR/JPY will trade roughly between ¥154 and ¥162 in the next 1–2 months, absent any major shocks. This projected range is derived from both recent price swings and quantitative volatility measures: • Volatility & ATR: EUR/JPY has seen elevated volatility recently – for example, it moved nearly 10 yen (about 6%) from early January’s high to late February’s low. On a day-to-day basis, the pair typically moves about 90–100 pips per day on average  (roughly ¥0.95). With volatility currently a bit higher than average, daily ranges of 100–150 pips are not uncommon. Over a 30-day period, this daily volatility can compound to multi-yen moves. Average True Range (ATR) readings (14-day) are likely around 1.2–1.5 yen right now, given the recent large candles. This suggests that within any given week, swings of 2–3 yen can occur. Incorporating this into a 4–8 week outlook, a 7–8 yen total range (~4–5% of current price) is a reasonable expectation. • Support/Resistance Boundaries: Our range bottom of ¥154 is near the aforementioned key support (mid-150s). It assumes that the recent low (¥154.8) or the Fibonacci support (~¥152) will hold even in a downside scenario. If the market breaks significantly below ¥154 and sustains there, it would likely indicate a more bearish development than currently expected (and could then target ¥150 or below). On the upside, ¥162 corresponds to the lower end of the strong resistance zone (upper-150s to mid-160s). The pair spent much of January and early February oscillating in the 158–162 area before the deeper drop, so any rebounds may stall out in that region. A move above ¥162–¥164 would require a fundamental catalyst (or a squeeze of yen longs) and is outside our base-case range – though not impossible, it’s just not the anticipated norm. • Historical Precedent: The average trading range for EUR/JPY in a given month is often a few yen from low to high. With 2025’s early months already producing about a 10-yen swing high-to-low, we expect the next two months to be somewhat more contained as the market digests information. An estimated range of roughly 500 to 800 pips (5–8 yen) captures most potential fluctuations if conditions remain similar. This would put approximate bounds at mid-150s on the low end and low-160s on the high end. Indeed, many analysts forecast only modest net moves for EUR/JPY in the near term – for example, one source projects the pair around ¥158 by end of March , implying it stays in this general vicinity. Of course, volatility could expand the range if unexpected events occur. A surprise hawkish move by the BOJ or a sharp risk-off episode might challenge the ¥152 and even ¥150 support. Conversely, an abrupt shift to risk-on (or a less-dovish ECB stance) could see ¥164 re-tested. But considering current ATR-based volatility and chart boundaries, ¥154–¥162 is our expected trading range for the next 30–60 days. This suggests traders can plan for multi-week consolidation within that band, punctuated by short-term swings, rather than a runaway trend. 30–60 Day Forecast Directional Bias: We maintain a cautious bearish bias for EUR/JPY over the next 1–2 months. This view emerges from the confluence of technical, fundamental, and positioning factors discussed above. In summary, the path of least resistance appears to be mildly to the downside, although a large, one-way drop may be tempered by periodic rebounds. Here’s the synthesis: • Technicals – The recent downtrend off January’s highs is intact, with lower highs on the daily chart and momentum still weak. Key support has held so far (~¥154–¥155), so we may see some near-term range trading or a bounce. However, unless EUR/JPY can break above ¥161–¥162 convincingly, the technical structure favors sellers on rallies. Indicators like weekly RSI and the potential head-and-shoulders top suggest the rally of the past years is topping out . Thus, any bounce could be an opportunity for the bears to reassert control. A neutral/upside surprise would be if the euro can rally above ¥164 – that would force a re-evaluation – but that scenario seems unlikely given current headwinds. • Fundamentals – The macro backdrop clearly leans in favor of a stronger yen vs a weaker euro in the coming weeks. An ECB rate cut in March (almost fully expected ) could put downward pressure on EUR/JPY, as lower euro rates reduce carry trades. Meanwhile, even without an imminent BOJ hike, the tone from Tokyo is shifting less dovish, and Japanese data strength (inflation, GDP) is keeping yen bulls confident. Moreover, global growth concerns and any safe-haven flows tend to benefit JPY. As one analysis put it, the euro’s resilience could be “stripped” by a more dovish ECB, with scope for EUR/JPY to drop toward 150 over time in a bearish scenario . While 150 may be beyond our 60-day horizon unless there’s a shock, it underscores the fundamentally-driven downside risk. We expect Eurozone-U.S. rate differentials (Fed also cutting slowly) to maybe limit USD/JPY downside, but for EUR/JPY, the Eurozone-Japan differential is the key – and that is unequivocally narrowing in yen’s favor. Overall, fundamentals point to EUR/JPY grinding lower or at best struggling to rise. • Positioning/Sentiment – With speculators already heavily short EUR/JPY (long JPY) , one might worry about a contrarian rally. However, this positioning is actually part of why we think any EUR/JPY upticks will likely be limited: the market has anticipated yen-positive news, and so far those bets have been right (given EUR/JPY’s decline from the highs). Unless there’s a clear reason for these speculators to abandon their yen longs, they will likely continue to sell into EUR/JPY strength. In addition, the fact that commercial hedgers are so long yen  suggests real-money interests are protecting against further EUR/JPY downside (for example, European corporates hedging euro exposure, or Japanese firms hedging foreign earnings). That can act as an overhead weight on the pair. Market sentiment, as seen in COT and broader narratives, is tilted bearish on EUR/JPY – which aligns with our bias. As one strategist quipped, “EUR/JPY bulls have seen the best part of the move… the greater rewards could await bears” in 2025  . Over the next 30–60 days, we expect that theme to play out moderately, absent a significant shift in sentiment. Taking all these points together, our forecast is for EUR/JPY to trade with a downward bias, likely oscillating within the mid-150s to lower-160s range, but with an inclination to test the lower end of that range. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the pair drift into the low-150s if euro weakness or yen strength accelerates (for instance, a move toward ¥152). Conversely, strong resistance in the low-160s should contain any counter-trend rallies. In practical terms, this means strategies like selling on strength (shorting near resistance) could outperform buying dips, given the current backdrop. However, caution is warranted: event risks like an unexpected change in ECB tone (less dovish than expected) or a sudden improvement in risk appetite could spur a sharper euro rebound versus yen. Also, if the pair approaches the big ¥150 level, one might see profit-taking by yen longs or even concerns of BOJ intervention in FX (historically Japan has intervened to weaken yen when it gets too strong, though ¥150 against the euro is not as prominent a trigger as levels against USD). These factors could limit extreme moves. Bottom Line: We expect EUR/JPY to be somewhat heavy in the next 30–60 days, with an estimated trading range of roughly ¥154–¥162. The directional bias is mildly bearish, skewing toward yen strength (lower EUR/JPY), driven by supportive technical signals, a yen-friendly fundamental environment (narrowing rate gap, solid Japanese data, etc.), and positioning that reflects and reinforces this bias. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming central bank meetings (ECB in early March, BOJ in late March) and economic data, as these will be the catalysts that either reinforce the current trajectory or, if they surprise, challenge it. For now, current sentiment and evidence suggest rallies will likely be sold and EUR/JPY could gravitate lower into spring, barring a major shift in the narrative. Sources: • ActionForex – EUR/JPY Technical Outlook   (support/resistance and technical pattern insights) • MarketPulse/CityIndex – Analyst Commentary on ECB & BOJ Policies   (policy divergence and safe-haven yen demand) • FastBull/ECB Survey – Rate Cut Expectations ; BOJ hike odds  (interest rate outlook for ECB and BOJ) • ING Think – Central Banks 2025 Outlook   (ECB prioritizing growth, BOJ normalization path) • CityIndex COT Report – Yen Positioning   (speculators net-long yen at record pace) • Forex.com/CityIndex – EUR/JPY COT Proxy  (extreme bearish positioning on EUR/JPY by large speculators) • Reuters/NY Fed – Yen Repatriation Seasonality  (March flows effect) • IG.com – Seasonality Caution  (historical frequency of yen moves in March) • QuantifiedStrategies – EUR/JPY Volatility (ATR)  (average daily range ~95 pips) • CityIndex/Forex.com – Market Sentiment Quotes   (strategist view that EUR/JPY bullish run may be over, favoring bears). Here’s how I interpret the Wyckoff structure on this chart: Wyckoff Distribution Phase Breakdown 1. Preliminary Supply (PSY) – This likely occurred around late November to early December, when buying pressure started to slow down and volume increased on peaks, signaling that larger players were distributing positions. 2. Buying Climax (BC) – The highest peak near 162-164 appears to be the Buying Climax, where large amounts of supply entered the market. This was followed by a sharp reaction downward. 3. Automatic Reaction (AR) – The first drop to the 156-158 zone following the BC confirmed the trading range. 4. Secondary Test (ST) – The price retested resistance levels but failed to break significantly higher, forming a lower high. 5. Upthrust (UT) and Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) – Price attempted a push above 161-162, but these were rejected, confirming supply dominance. 6. Sign of Weakness (SOW) – The recent drop back below 156 shows a clear breakdown below previous supports, confirming bearish control. 7. Last Point of Supply (LPSY) – The last bounce near 158 failed to reclaim prior highs, suggesting that supply is still outweighing demand. 8. Breakdown / Markdown Phase – If price breaks below 154, it could enter a markdown phase, potentially testing the 150 level or lower.
Short
by Barbacue
GBP/CAD Long SwingGbp/Cad is trading currently at significant resistance level. Many traders are expecting price to drop from here and sentiment is on downside. But looking at current priceaction and fundamentals connected to canadian dollar. I personaly expect prices to go higher from here. First target are highs from May 2018. Looking on monthly and weekly timeframes we can cleary see momentum to upside and during last two weeks there has been only buying and no selling, plus looking on latest COT reports institutions are heavly selling CAD. If this level holds it's a good sign for more upside.
Long
by VarisSvard
BlackRock & BitcoinA giant's journey into the world of blockchain! This post highlights how BlackRock's balance sheet and profits have changed since the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF. The data is collected from the Arkham platform. The information will be updated periodically. 28.02.2025 Current balance: 577.9K BTC Total Profit: +11B USD This rapid growth underscores BlackRock's confidence in bitcoin's long-term potential and signals a new era of institutional growth. Take a look at the chart to see the trend of balance sheet growth since the ETF's launch. Will BlackRock continue to grow Bitcoins? Share your thoughts in the comments! Data has been verified through Arkham Intelligence. Updates will follow. Alex Kostenich, Horban Brothers.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by horbanbrothers
IF price spikes into $2865 - $2870, SMASH THE SHORT BUTTON!💰🚀 ULTRA AGGRESSIVE OVERCONFIDENCE TRADING PLAN – MARCH 1, 2025 🚀💰 🔥 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! 🔥 📢 Today’s Target: Absolute market domination using institutional-grade precision, liquidity traps, and sniper entries for maximum profitability. 📊 How is $2800 the Maximum TP? Detailed Breakdown 📉🚀 The $2800 take-profit target is built upon institutional liquidity traps, Fibonacci retracement precision, and order flow manipulation. Here’s why this level is the high-probability, ultra-aggressive TP zone: ✅ 1. LIQUIDITY VOID BELOW $2825 – A BLACK HOLE OF STOP-LOSS LIQUIDITY! 🏦 Institutions NEED liquidity to execute large orders, and liquidity voids = fast price movements when breached! 🔥 Between $2825 - $2800, there’s a liquidity vacuum! Few institutional buy orders exist in this zone, meaning when price falls… IT DUMPS HARD. 🔎 Key insight: If gold breaks $2825, stop-losses will cascade, TRIGGERING a straight drop to $2800. 📉 Gold could nuke into $2800 in minutes once the liquidity trap is activated. ✅ 2. 50% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVEL – THE SMART MONEY ENTRY POINT! 📊 The 50% Fib retracement is where institutional traders reload heavy positions! 🎯 Measured from the last swing high to the recent low, the 50% Fib aligns PERFECTLY at $2800. 💰 Institutions LOVE engineering a fake breakdown to $2800 before slamming price back up to trap late sellers! 📉 Gold breaking below $2825? EXPECT the magnet pull straight to the 50% Fib retracement at $2800! ✅ 3. INSTITUTIONAL BUYING ZONE – WHERE THE BIG MONEY STEPS IN! 📉 How Market Makers Manipulate Price to $2800: 💰 Institutions place HIDDEN buy orders at major levels to TRAP retail traders. 🔻 Market makers aggressively drop price below $2825 to force liquidation → THEN snap back with ultra-fast reclaims at $2800! 🏦 Big money WANTS deep liquidity sweeps before reversing gold back up! 🔍 CONFIRMATION FROM ORDER FLOW: 📊 Historical data PROVES strong institutional buying at $2800. 📉 This level has been TESTED multiple times as a major support, meaning institutions WILL defend it. 📈 WHAT HAPPENS AT $2800? 🚀 Once gold SLAMS into $2800, expect INSTITUTIONAL BUY PRESSURE to reverse it UPWARD. ⚠️ If $2800 FAILS TO HOLD, expect a deeper drop into $2775 - $2750. 🔥 CONCLUSION – THE MASTERPLAN FOR TODAY! 📉 If Gold Breaks Below $2825: ✅ EXPECT a VIOLENT dump straight to $2800 due to stop-loss liquidation and liquidity voids. ✅ Institutions will BUY HEAVILY at $2800, triggering a sharp bounce or a full V-reversal. 🔴 If Gold Holds $2825: 🚫 Gold might NOT reach $2800 if buyers aggressively defend $2825. 🚫 A bounce from $2825 could push price back to $2850 - $2860. 🚀 FINAL TRADING PLAN – MAXIMUM EXECUTION & PROFITABILITY! 🔥 TRADE WITH EXTREME PRECISION – ZERO HESITATION! 📌 💰 SELL ENTRY: $2865 - $2870 📌 🚨 STOP-LOSS: $2877 (Tight, calculated risk control) 📌 🎯 TAKE-PROFIT LEVELS: TP1: $2850 ✅ (Lock in early profits) TP2: $2845 ✅ (Major scalp zone) TP3: $2825 🔥 (Big liquidity grab level) 🎯 MAX TP: $2800 🚀 (HIGH-PROBABILITY liquidity grab & Fib confluence!) 💰 ULTRA HIGH RISK-REWARD RATIO = 7:1 AT $2800! 🚨🔥 👉 ULTRA AGGRESSIVE EXECUTION STRATEGY – TRADE LIKE A MARKET KILLER! 🔥 IF gold breaks below $2825, DO NOT EXIT. HOLD FOR $2800! 🔥 IF price spikes into $2865 - $2870, SMASH THE SHORT BUTTON! 🔥 IF gold stalls at $2850 - $2845, partial TP & LET IT RIDE! 🚀 WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! LET’S EXECUTE LIKE A MARKET LEGEND! 🚀💰📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MAHARLIKA_FX
1
Bitcoin Cash at Critical Trendline – Next Big Move?Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USDT) is currently showing signs of a strong reversal after testing a key support zone and the ascending trendline. This level has acted as critical support in previous price cycles, making it an important area to watch. The price has rebounded from the strong support line, which aligns with the accumulation zone from early 2023. Additionally, BCH remains within a long-term descending channel, with the upper resistance line acting as a ceiling for previous bullish moves.
Long
by unichartz
2