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Fundamental Analysis

BTC WILL CRUSH. BTC ENTRY POINTAs we predicted on our last Analysis BTC exactly reacted and went the direction we wants. So now if BTC first rejected from 106100-106700, Then we will see a opportunity to go short until 102k. If BTC didn't not respect 106100-106700, And went up with high volume then more likely reject from 107800-108500 above breaker FVG, From there we can go short only if we got rejected. NOTE: we should wait for the confirmation, The confirmation will be Rejection from those two area. Analysis: 1H
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by Risky9
BITCOIN (BTC/USD) – BREAKDOWN FROM THE CHANNEL! WHAT’S NEXT?Hey traders! 🧠 Today’s BTC/USD price action is sending a strong technical signal – price has broken down from the ascending channel, potentially marking the start of a deeper correction. Currently sitting at $106,200, with a daily drop of -1.49%. 🔍 Here’s what I’m seeing: 📉 Uptrend break – bears might be taking control. 🛑 Immediate support: $104,000. 🔼 Resistance ahead: $109,351 – reclaiming this is key for any bullish recovery. 📊 Watching closely whether BTC re-enters the channel or moves toward lower support (~$100K or below). 💡 My current plan: If $104K holds, we could see a bounce. If not, prepare for a potential deeper dip. A return above $109K would be a bullish sign and could trigger renewed momentum. 📲 Follow me for more real-time updates, trade ideas, and clean technical breakdowns! 👉 If this helped, drop a like – it helps get this analysis in front of more traders! #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by deividasbulanovas
Bitcoin to $115k or pullback to $91kGood Evening Traders, First I would like to say, congratulations to all of you who have been in the game for the last 3 bitcoin halving cycles. Through all of the "You buy fake internet money" comments or the never ending explaining of the Tokenomics of different cryptocurrencies, I have to say KUDOS to all of us who saw the vision, stuck to your guns and intricately added to your bags over the years! We are finally here on the cusp of full regulation and a final hush of the naysayers! Ok, now down to brass tax! On the chart I have Highlighted a few important details. Something I did not point out on the chart is the massive printing of USDT that has been happening over the past few days. It seems to me that we are on the cusp of a massive influx of capital into the alt coin markets. But, for now lets focus on Bitcoin! As stated, you can see multiple points that I have highlighted... These being mostly bearish for the big dog of market cap and the grandfather coins of crypto Bitcoin. The first few things to notice is the bearish divergence on the MACD histogram, the bearish down cross of the MACD line over the signal line on the MACD indicator. You can also note the overbought area on the RSI right above that. In addition to this we do have some gaps on CME:BTC1! Which generally get filled sooner than later on most charts. With this in mind, it is possible that we could have some good news amongst the movers and shakers down at the Bitcoin conference this week. Yet, we could get some sell the news type events that could ease the price downward to fill in these gaps that we have below. In my experience at the beginning of each alt coin season Bitcoin generally leads the rally and can trade sideways to down during the upward movement of the majority of the altcoin market. My personal thoughts on the chart currently is shown at the top of the chart. if we close the daily candle underneath the hyperlocal resistance shown on the red line at the top of the chart, then we will most likely start pulling back to fill the first gap that is shown on the chart below in yellow. Albeit, the MACD is a lagging indicator, we can gain a lot of insight using it and my favorite sign on the MACD is using the histogram to point out bearish and bullish divergences. This shows a lack in momentum in the current trend that is shown through the price action of the assets trend. Especially, after a straight run up like we have just experienced as of late. In conclusion, you can make the assumption that if we close the current day under the red line above it is very possible that we begin what could turn out to be an ABC correction leading us down to fill in the gaps on BTC1! to the downside. If we hold the first support, BTC may show us a little more juice potentially reaching for just under $115k. This in my opinion would likely be a bull trap for the time being. Summers are not the best when it comes to crypto growth and it always seems like we are waiting for the Ground Hog to see its shadow to find out if we are to the moon or back to McDonalds with our friends! I hope that this analysis has helped you gain some insight in your research. I have added supports to the chart to show you where we may turn around and start heading back into price discovery. Stay Profitable, Savvy
CME:BTC1!
by Crypto_Kinfolk
Gold Price Action Update – Smart Dip Buy Pays Off!Yesterday, gold dipped to around 3290, followed by a minor rebound. Today, as expected, it broke down through the 3280 level decisively—just as we discussed: 🔻 A break below 3280 likely means a gap fill toward 3259. ✅ For those who followed the plan and went long below 3266, the trade worked beautifully— Gold dropped to a low of 3245, effectively filling the gap, and has since rebounded back to the 3280 area. 📈 What’s next? Now that the gap is filled, gold is likely to retest the $3300 zone in the short term. With price currently around 3280, there is still room to the upside. ➡️ If you're holding long positions, you can consider holding a bit longer for potential further gains. 🚨 BUT—this was only a single bottom test. That means there's still a chance of a second dip before the trend fully reverses. So: 🛡 Risk management remains crucial. If you're okay with some profit pullback, it's fine to stay in. If not, consider securing partial profits and setting trailing stops. 🎯 Key levels to watch: 🔼 3300 – Main resistance zone; focus on whether it breaks or rejects; 🔽 3276–3263 – Support range on any pullback; good zones to watch for fresh entries if support holds. 📌 Trading Strategy Outlook: For now, continue to buy on dips as long as support holds, and monitor 3300 resistance closely. If price fails to break above, we may see a pullback—but as always, with proper planning, we stay profitable.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Arthur3017
Gold is still washing out, beware of a fall below 3326! 📊Comment Analysis After gold fell in the Asian session, the entire European session rebounded continuously, and the US session hit the 3318 line. Overall, it is still a wide range of shocks and washes out. No matter whether it rises or falls, it is not continuous, and the fluctuation range is large, which is difficult to grasp in short-term operations. The current rise cannot be regarded as a strong trend. The characteristic of the shock market is repetition. The 4H cycle opens at 3326 as a watershed. Beware of a fall below this position in the US session. You can try to go short near 3320/3325. At present, it is a key position to bet on the short position. If it goes up, it will be 3340/3350. The rise in a short period of time is too large, and once it falls back, the strength will be the same. ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose a lot that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the fund account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Labaron
2
Gold starts a new trend? What is the reason?Gold prices rebounded, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" appeared after hitting the low of the week earlier. In addition, the US Trade Court ruled that President Donald Trump's tariffs on major trading partners exceeded his authority, which attracted market attention. Investors' focus has gradually shifted to the US core inflation data to be released this week. So far, the price of gold has risen by 0.91%, and the price has fluctuated around 3315. It hit the lowest point since May 20 during the European and Asian sessions. The cyclical market presents a three-wave pattern. The first two periods showed a trend of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. It is currently entering the third period. The current rally has basically ended and will usher in a small decline. I believe that the current rise in gold is partly due to technical covering, while economic uncertainty continues to support gold prices amid ongoing US debt problems and global trade tensions. In addition, there are reports that the United States has ordered a large number of companies not to export goods to China without permission, and revoked the export licenses that some suppliers have obtained. The current market is focusing on the US GDP data to be released later and the core personal consumption expenditure price index to be released on Friday. These two data will become an important basis for judging the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve. I will also pay attention to the release of news in a timely manner so as to update you in time on the impact of news on gold prices. Please be patient, traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid-1
Gold (XAUUSD): Beyond the Noise - Uncovering Core LevelsGold (XAUUSD) - A Top-Down Technical Analysis: Navigating Key Levels Amidst Shifting Momentum Analyst: Sochima Charles Nzeakor /Firm Name - UpperCase Date: May 29, 2025 Introduction: Gold (XAUUSD) has been a focal point for global investors, offering a safe haven amidst geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures. This top-down analysis delves into XAUUSD across multiple timeframes – Weekly (1W), Daily (1D), 4-Hour (4H), and 30-Minute (30m) – to provide a comprehensive outlook on its current trajectory and identify key levels for potential trading opportunities. Our objective is to unravel the prevailing market structure, pinpoint critical support and resistance zones, and assess the interplay of price action with broader market sentiment. 1. Weekly Timeframe (1W) - The Macro Picture: The weekly chart (image: image.png with "tradingsim") reveals a robust bullish trend for XAUUSD over the past few months. Following a significant upward impulse, price has entered a consolidation phase, marked by a series of higher lows and higher highs, albeit with some recent sideways movement. * Key Observations: * Strong Uptrend: The long-term trend remains unequivocally bullish, indicated by the overall ascent of price. * Consolidation/Retracement: After a strong rally, price is currently consolidating within a defined range. This could be interpreted as a healthy retracement or a re-accumulation phase before the next potential move. * Significant Support: The area around $2,900 - $2,950 appears to be a crucial weekly support zone, having previously acted as resistance. * Overhead Resistance: The immediate overhead resistance is evident around the $3,450 - $3,500 psychological level, which coincides with recent swing highs. * Long-Term Bullish Bias: Despite the recent consolidation, the weekly chart strongly suggests a bullish bias for Gold in the long term, contingent on the preservation of key support levels. 2. Daily Timeframe (1D) - Unpacking the Intermediate Trend: Zooming into the daily chart (image: image.png with "tradingview apk"), we gain a clearer perspective on the intermediate trend and recent price action. * Key Observations: * Corrective Structure: The daily chart confirms the ongoing consolidation, which has taken on a more defined corrective structure, possibly forming a bullish pennant or flag pattern. * Trendline Support/Resistance: A clear descending trendline has formed, acting as dynamic resistance, while a more subtle ascending trendline or horizontal support level has emerged, forming the base of the consolidation. * Critical Daily Support: The immediate daily support is identified around the $3,200 - $3,250 region, which has seen repeated tests and rejections, indicating its significance. * Resistance at Trendline/Key Levels: The price has repeatedly bounced off the descending trendline, indicating that breaking above this trendline will be crucial for the next bullish leg. Key resistance levels are also present around $3,320 - $3,360. * Volume Profile: While not explicitly shown with volume data, a healthy consolidation typically sees decreasing volume, suggesting a potential build-up for the next directional move. A breakout on strong volume would be a significant confirmation. 3. 4-Hour Timeframe (4H) - Dissecting Short-Term Dynamics: The 4-hour chart (image: image.png with "Chart, xaueur") provides a granular view of the recent price movements within the daily consolidation. * Key Observations: * Descending Channel/Wedge: The 4-hour chart clearly illustrates a descending channel or wedge pattern, which is often a bullish reversal pattern when appearing within an uptrend. * Lower Highs and Lower Lows within Channel: Price has been making lower highs and lower lows within this pattern, indicating short-term bearish pressure. * Immediate Resistance: The upper boundary of the descending channel acts as immediate resistance. A break above this would signal a shift in short-term momentum. * Key 4H Support: The $3,260 - $3,280 area has acted as recent support, with price bouncing off these levels. This confluence of support is critical to watch. * Potential for Breakout: The converging trendlines of the wedge suggest that a significant move is imminent, either a breakout to the upside or a breakdown to test lower support. 4. 30-Minute Timeframe (30m) - The Intraday Pulse: Finally, the 30-minute chart (images: image.png with "Chart, dogecoin technical analysis" and image.png with "Chart, xaueur") offers the most immediate insights into intraday price action and potential entry/exit points. * Key Observations: * Intraday Consolidation/Tightening Range: The 30-minute chart shows a very tight consolidation, with price action compressing into a smaller range. This is typical before a volatility expansion. * Immediate Resistance: The immediate intraday resistance is around $3,310 - $3,320, which aligns with the upper boundary of the short-term descending pattern observed on the 4H chart. * Immediate Support: Intraday support is seen around the $3,280 - $3,290 area. * Breakout Imminent: The extremely tight range and converging trendlines on the 30-minute chart strongly suggest that a breakout, either to the upside or downside, is highly probable in the very near term. Traders should prepare for increased volatility. Concluding Remarks & Potential Scenarios: Gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a critical juncture. While the long-term weekly trend remains bullish, the daily and 4-hour charts indicate a well-defined corrective phase within a bullish continuation pattern (descending wedge/pennant). The intraday charts underscore the imminence of a significant move. Bullish Scenario: A decisive breakout above the descending trendline on the daily and 4-hour charts, coupled with a break above the $3,320 - $3,360 resistance zone, would confirm the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Targets could then extend towards the $3,450 - $3,500 weekly resistance and potentially higher, towards $3,600 and beyond. This would be supported by strong volume and sustained momentum. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, a breakdown below the crucial daily support at $3,200 - $3,250 would invalidate the current bullish continuation pattern and suggest a deeper retracement. In this scenario, price could seek support at the weekly support zone around $2,900 - $2,950. A break below $3,280 on the 30-minute chart would be an early warning sign. Key Levels to Watch: * Major Resistance: $3,320, $3,360, $3,450 - $3,500 * Major Support: $3,200 - $3,250, $2,900 - $2,950 * Intraday Resistance: $3,310 - $3,320 * Intraday Support: $3,280 - $3,290 Disclaimer : This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. We encourage community discussion and diverse perspectives on this analysis. Please share your insights and charts in the comments below!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by S_O_C_H_I_M_A
1
MASK/USDT Technical Analysis – Bullish Setup Forming? 🕒 Timeframe: 4H 📈 Exchange: Binance 💱 Pair: MASK/USDT 📌 Overview: MASK has recently shown strong bullish momentum and is now in a healthy correction phase, pulling back toward key Fibonacci levels. This could present a potential long opportunity – if the structure holds. 🔍 Price Action & Fibonacci: 🔹 Price is retracing from local highs. 🔹 Key Fibonacci retracement support: 🔸 0.5 @ $2.084 🔸 0.618 @ $2.152 These levels act as strong demand zones and may offer a bounce setup. --- 📊 Indicators: ✅ RSI (14): - Currently holding above 50 → Positive momentum. - Staying below 70 avoids overbought signals. ✅ MACD: - - Watching for continuation or signal line crossover. ✅ EMA: - Price remains above EMA 50 → Short-term bullish trend intact. - A break below EMA 50 could signal trend weakness 🎯 Trade Idea: 📌 Long Scenario: - Entry: $2.08 – $2.15 - Stop Loss: Below $2.05 - Targets: $2.30 → $2.45 → $2.60 📌 Short Scenario (if breakdown): - Entry: Below $2.05 after retest - Stop Loss: Above $2.15 - Targets: $1.95 → $1.80 ⚠️ Risk Management: - Futures traders: Watch leverage. - Monitor BTC/ETH as leading indicators. 💬 What’s your bias – are you buying the dip or waiting for confirmation? 📍 Like & Follow for more setups and updates!
by mvjalili
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 26-28/05/2025Incase you're new to the Judas Swing Strategy and want to know what the strategy is about, it is a classic price manipulation concept where the market fakes a move in one direction (the “Judas” move), only to reverse and trend in the opposite direction. It’s common during 00:00 - 08:30 EST openings, often used by smart money to trap retail traders. It’s especially powerful when paired with liquidity grabs above/below key highs or lows, followed by a reversal into a FVG confirmation On Monday, we identified a clean Judas Swing setup. Price spiked below previous lows, giving us a bias to look for potential buying setups after what looked like a classic liquidity grab. We got a break of structure and a reversal into the FVG created. However, after entry, price failed to reject meaningfully and instead continued lower only after taking out the low, hitting our stop loss before any major move up. We lost 1% on this trade and the lesson all traders need to learn here is that even valid setups will fail and you'll lose money at some point when trading. Fast forward to Wednesday We saw a similar manipulation as price spiked below recent Judas swing zones during NY session, grabbing sell-side liquidity before reversing sharply. We waited for confirmation a strong bullish engulfing and break of minor structure. Entry was taken long, with stop loss 10 pips below the liquidity grab and target at previous structure highs. The trade ran smoothly into profit, validating the setup and recovering the week's earlier loss. Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: Clean 1:2 Notes traders need to take from this trade: - Perfect Judas Swing after liquidity sweep - Patience for confirmation paid off - Structure shift confirmed smart money reversal
by CleoFinance
Will Gold(XAUUSD) Price Surge?The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased its gold reserves to 879.59 tonnes in FY25, the central bank said in its annual report released on May 29. The country’s gold reserves were at 854.73 tonnes in September 2024. The surge in reserves has been attributed to a combination of fresh purchases of 54.13 tonnes, a 30 percent increase in gold prices, and the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. Following our technical analysis we can see Gold reacting from the 4h Fvg therefore we expect a shift in market structure when price breaks above 3325 where we shall be looking for long positions to take out the all time high. Consequently, if the short term trendline holds the price below 3325, we expect to short the market to around 3180 where price will have alighned with the overall bullish trendline therefore considering longterm buying opportunity.. If you find this helpful Please Like, Subscribe and share for more Insights on XAUUSD
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Pipsey_hustle
Gold’s Golden Reaction — Respecting the 4H FVG Like a Pro Gold is showing a classic ICT-aligned reaction after tapping into a clean 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), which acted as a high-probability point of interest (POI). The rejection wick and immediate bullish reaction suggest algorithmic interest has returned, hinting at a potential short-term bullish continuation. 🧠 Key Confluences: ✅ 4H FVG respected cleanly — often signals institutional accumulation when coupled with high volume and immediate pushback. ✅ COT Report Overlay: Institutional longs on gold outweigh shorts significantly (81% long), while retail is skewed bearish (69% short). This adds confidence to the long-side thesis — smart money likely pushing the upside. ✅ Price displacing higher after sweep of local liquidity — textbook liquidity grab before directional move. 🎯 Targets: First Buyside Liquidity: 3,366.95 — this is the initial level where we may see some profit taking and possible rejection. Second Buyside Liquidity: 3,433.85 — high-timeframe clean highs likely resting with unmitigated orders, making this a strong target. However, due to the impulsive nature of gold, a retracement or pullback from the first target is very likely before continuation to the next liquidity level. This could present a second entry opportunity if the FVG zone holds support again. ⚠️ Risk Note: A break and close below the FVG invalidates the bullish bias and could push price toward the prior sell-side zone near 3,257 or lower.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by INSIDER_INTEL
FIL 1D – Compression Build-Up Below ResistancePrice consolidates just below the 50 EMA. Support holding tight at $2.86 — bulls defending the base. MACD flatlining but with bullish divergence on histogram lows. Volume thinning during pullbacks — classic bullish continuation structure. Higher low structure still intact from April base. Daily close above $2.94 opens momentum window to $3.30–$3.45. Patience favors the bid. Smart money waits for the breakout. #FILUSD #Filecoin #TechnicalAnalysis #EMAStack #Quant #CryptoTA #FILBreakout
KRAKEN:FILUSDLong
by BroLal
Gold Strategy Update — Professional Trading InsightGold dipped to around 3290, then rebounded to 3310, followed by another pullback toward the 3290–3280 region and bounced again. This price action perfectly aligned with our forecast and trading plan. 👉 If you followed today's strategy, you should be in solid profit once again! 📍 Current Market Structure Analysis: 🔹 Gold is now hovering near 3300, which is a key resistance zone. Our previously identified support area at 3306–3318–3324 has been broken and is now acting as resistance. 🔹 Among these levels: 3306 is a weaker resistance, While the 3316–3323 zone is the main barrier to watch. 📊 Based on the 30-minute chart, bullish momentum appears limited: If the price rebounds in a single leg, it is likely capped around 3318–3324, → With an 80%+ probability of a pullback from that zone. A reasonable short-term target would be 3312; However, if gold builds a double bottom or multiple bottom structure, it may gather more strength, → And a broader rebound could reach 3332–3338. 📉 Bearish Structure Repair (2H Chart): On the 2-hour chart, the previous bearish structure has been mostly corrected by the recent drop; The next key factor is whether bulls can break above 3320 to confirm a reversal. 🟥 If bulls fail to break 3320 and price drops below 3280, it may open the door for bears to close the gap around 3259. → In that case, levels below 3266 will present excellent buy opportunities. 📊 Trading Summary: Although market volatility has slightly decreased in recent days, there are still plenty of solid trading opportunities, and we continue to profit steadily. ✅ As long as you stick to a proven strategy, strong discipline, and flexible execution, you’ll find that no matter how the market moves, our profit curve will keep climbing.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Arthur3017
Psst… Wanna Rob the Silver Market? XAG/USD Trade Inside!"🔥 "SILVER HEIST ALERT! 🚨 XAG/USD Bullish Raid Plan (Thief Trading Style)" 🔥 🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟 Attention Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🤑💰💸✈️ Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re plotting a heist on XAG/USD "The Silver" Market. Follow the strategy on the chart—LONG ENTRY is key! Aim to escape near the high-risk Red Zone (overbought, consolidation, bear traps). 🏆 Take profits & treat yourself—you’ve earned it! 💪🎉 📈 ENTRY: "The Heist Begins!" Wait for MA breakout (33.700)—then strike! Bullish profits await. Options: Buy Stop above Moving Average OR Buy Limit near pullback zones (15-30min timeframe, swing lows/highs). 📌 Pro Tip: Set an ALERT for breakout confirmation! 🛑 STOP LOSS: "Listen Up, Thieves!" For Buy Stop Orders: DO NOT set SL until after breakout! Place SL at recent/swing low (4H timeframe)—adjust based on your risk, lot size, & order count. Rebels, be warned: Set it wherever, but you’re playing with fire! 🔥⚡ 🏴‍☠️ TARGET: 34.700 Scalpers: Only trade LONG. Use trailing SL to protect gains. Swing Traders: Join the robbery squad & ride the trend! 📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP: Bullish drivers in play! Check: Macro trends, COT reports, sentiment, intermarket analysis. 🔗 Linkks in bio/chart for deep dive. ⚠️ TRADING ALERTS: News = Volatility! Avoid new trades during releases. Lock profits with trailing stops. Stay sharp! 💥 BOOST THE HEIST! Hit 👍 "LIKE" & "BOOST" to fuel our robbery team! More heists coming—stay tuned! 🚀🤩 🎯 Let’s steal the market’s money—Thief Trading Style! 🏆💵
FXOPEN:XAGUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
Gold's rebound is weak and the bearish trend is dominant.The 1-hour gold chart shows that the Bollinger Bands open downward, and the gold price is running near the lower track, with a weak short-term trend. If it fails to rebound effectively and break through the 3290 line, the support below will focus on the 3240-3230 area. Overall, the gold price fluctuates downward, the moving average system is in a short position, and the downward pressure is further revealed. It is currently recommended to continue to maintain a high-altitude thinking and focus on short-selling opportunities after the rebound. In the short-term operation of gold during the day, rebound short-selling is the main focus. Pay attention to the pressure level of the 3290-3280 area above, and the support level of the 3240-3230 area below. In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to arrange short orders when the gold price rebounds to the 3280-3290 range. This is a key pressure area, and it is necessary to pay attention to the market reaction in this range.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP_Daniel5
Breaking News: U.S. Federal Court Blocks Trump’s Tariff PolicyOn Wednesday (local time), a U.S. federal court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2nd, known as "Liberation Day." The court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by imposing broad tariffs on countries that export more goods to the U.S. than they import from the U.S. Analysis: This decision could ease global trade tensions in the short term, especially for major export markets to the U.S. such as China and the European Union. Investors may expect more stability in supply chains and reduced cost pressures from tariffs. Affected Stock Groups: Heavy industry and manufacturing companies, particularly in steel, aluminum, and chemicals, may benefit from the blocked tariffs. Technology, electronics, and consumer goods stocks with global supply chains could see reduced risks from increased tariff costs. Conversely, U.S.-based companies focused on domestic markets might face increased competition due to lower tariffs on imports. Investors should closely monitor political developments and any follow-up actions from the U.S. administration to adjust their strategies accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Recovery or Just a Bull Trap? All Eyes on PCE This WeekNZDUSD – Recovery or Just a Bull Trap? All Eyes on PCE This Week 🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After the FOMC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the US Dollar has shown signs of recovery driven by expectations that core inflation remains persistent — especially ahead of the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index release this Friday. On the New Zealand side, the Kiwi remains under pressure due to recent weak economic data and negative sentiment from China — its largest trading partner. The RBNZ continues to maintain a neutral stance, offering little support for the currency in the near term. Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await the PCE data to determine inflation trends and potential Fed policy shifts. 📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1–H2 TIMEFRAME) NZDUSD is forming a technical rebound after a strong bearish leg from the 0.60300 region. Current price is trading around the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5964–0.5976), struggling to break above EMA89 and EMA200 resistance. Overall structure: Bearish bias remains intact with lower highs. EMA alignment: EMA13, EMA34, and EMA89 are in bearish formation. Key support zone: 0.5926–0.5940, trendline confluence + consolidation base. 🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH Resistance: 0.5976 – Fibonacci 0.5 retracement + previous rejection zone 0.5990 – Structural resistance of the week 0.6007 – 78.6% Fib + liquidity sweep potential Support: 0.5940 – Trendline retest + short-term structure 0.5926 – Key demand zone with previous fake breakout 🎯 TRADE IDEAS SELL SETUP – Fade the pullback into resistance: Entry: 0.5976 – 0.5990 Stop Loss: 0.6010 Take Profit: 0.5940 → 0.5926 BUY SCALP – On strong bullish rejection from support: Entry: 0.5926 – 0.5930 Stop Loss: 0.5900 Take Profit: 0.5960 → 0.5976 Note: Confirm with bullish candlestick and volume spike before entry. ⚠️ STRATEGY OUTLOOK NZDUSD remains in a corrective phase. This week’s PCE inflation data will be critical. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD and push NZDUSD below 0.5926, resuming the medium-term downtrend. Avoid chasing mid-range price action. Focus on price reactions near the key resistance and support levels.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
The Day AheadKey Economic Data US Q1 GDP (2nd estimate) Critical gauge of US economic strength. A stronger print supports the USD and Treasury yields; a weaker print could increase rate cut expectations. US Initial Jobless Claims Weekly labor market barometer. Higher claims may signal softening employment, boosting rate cut speculation. US April Pending Home Sales Forward-looking housing data. Affects homebuilder stocks and rate-sensitive sectors. Japan May Consumer Confidence Index Influences JPY and Nikkei futures. A strong number supports risk sentiment in Asia. Italy May Consumer & Manufacturing Confidence, March Industrial Sales Could affect EUR and European equity indexes, especially if significantly diverging from consensus. Canada Q1 Current Account Balance Impacts CAD. A stronger balance may support CAD crosses; relevant for BoC watchers. Central Bank Activity Fed Speakers: Barkin, Goolsbee, Daly Market-sensitive remarks possible, especially around inflation, labor market, and rate path. Key for interpreting near-term FOMC expectations. Earnings Reports Major reports: Costco, Royal Bank of Canada, Dell, Marvell, Zscaler, Gap These span retail, finance, tech, and cybersecurity. Potentially high-impact for: Retail sentiment (Costco, Gap) Tech momentum (Dell, Marvell, Zscaler) Financial sector positioning (Royal Bank of Canada) Bond Market US 7-Year Treasury Note Auction Important for yield curve positioning. Weak demand may steepen the curve; strong demand could support duration plays. Trading Takeaways Macro setup: GDP + claims = key risk barometer for USD and yields. Volatility catalyst: Earnings after-hours may drive post-market Nasdaq and futures volatility. Bond traders: Watch auction tail and bid metrics closely; implications for near-term Treasury direction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation