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GOLD → Sellers taking interest for retesting in goldHello Traders! As we all know that last week gold has made ATH with red candle and also did a retest to 2799 but this retest is not enough for continuation of bullish trend here i have shared my analysis about gold Currently gold is trading on 2799 at gold support level as next week is going to start in 3 hours so gold can do a gap down opening with strong volume candle and we can see 2774 in gold because gold is in strong bullish trend so it should touch 2774 which is golden zone of fib to continue its bullish trend. Support Level: 2758-2767 Resistance Level: 2815-2819 Fib Golden Zone: 2773-2763 Liquidity Zone: 2730 (also strong low) As gold is trading in a ascending channel so our target would be the trendline of ascending trendline but our entry should be at golden zone of fib. Do not take entry at ATH that is the first of technical analysis so here our entry for buy would be very risky so we will wait for retest. For Now we can take sell trade for scalping but always use SL because SL is better than liquidation so i am in for sell till 2763 If you like my analysis kindly boost my idea and follow me for more analysis Analysis By: PIPsOptimizer Have a nice day thank you!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by PIPsOptimizer
GOLD/XAUUSD Aiming for New Highs? While the US and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) aren’t in a formal trade war, tensions are rising. BRICS nations are working to reduce reliance on the US dollar, challenging its dominance in global trade. This “de-dollarization” effort and geopolitical shifts, like sanctions on Russia and US-China disputes, are fueling uncertainty. The USD surged by over 7.1% and was the only currency to see a positive growth in 2024. What This Means for Gold? Gold thrives during uncertainty. As BRICS push for alternatives to the dollar and tensions with the US escalate, demand for gold could rise: Hedge Against Currency Risks: If BRICS reduce dollar usage, the dollar might weaken, boosting gold’s appeal. Geopolitical Tensions: Gold is a safe-haven asset investors flock to during economic instability. Global economic shifts are driving gold’s narrative. Trade wisely! Apex out!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Apexfx_Alpha
USDCHF → The bullish trend may get its continuationOANDA:USDCHF is entering the realization phase after a prolonged correction. A favorable background is created by the uptrend and rising dollar The technical outlook on the daily timeframe is very good. The price after breaking the trend resistance tested the previously broken line. The currency pair after the false breakout managed to consolidate above the key point, marking an interim bottom and further prospects. Technically, the focus is on the resistance at 0.911, if the bulls can overcome this area and consolidate above this level, the currency pair will be able to realize a rise to 0.918 - 0.93. Resistance levels: 0.911 Support levels: 0.90555 Before breaking the resistance, the currency pair could test 0.90555 due to the liquidity generated below this area. But, the trigger that can provoke further growth is 0.911 Regards MARKET ANALYZER
Long
by MarketAnalyzar
Investing in US Construction & Engineering: PWR vs FIX vs PRIM◉ Abstract The U.S. construction and engineering sector is experiencing a significant boom, driven by infrastructure investments, rapid urbanization, and the rise of renewable energy projects. Leading companies such as Quanta Services NYSE:PWR , Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX , and Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM are capitalizing on these trends, each demonstrating strong performance. Among them, PRIM stands out with exceptional financial health and attractive valuation metrics, positioning it as a compelling choice for investors. PWR and FIX are also performing well, benefiting from the sector's growth momentum. With substantial government spending and ongoing urbanization fueling demand, the sector presents promising opportunities for long-term investors. However, thorough research, clear investment goals, and effective risk management remain crucial to navigating this dynamic landscape successfully. ◉ Introduction The U.S. construction and engineering sector is a vital component of the nation's economy, driving infrastructure development, urbanization, and economic growth. It encompasses various activities, including residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure construction, as well as engineering services for design, planning, and project management. Recent trends shaping the sector include urbanization, sustainability, technological advancements, and government investments in infrastructure. ◉ Key Drivers of Growth 1. Infrastructure Investments: $1.2 trillion allocated for roads, bridges, railways, and clean energy infrastructure. 2. Renewable Energy: Funding boost for solar and wind farms driving demand for construction services. 3. Urbanization: Rapid urbanization fueling demand for residential and commercial construction. 4. Sustainability: Emphasis on green building, energy efficiency, and renewable energy projects. 5. Technological Advancements: Adoption of BIM, drones, and automation improving efficiency and reducing costs. 6. Resilience and Disaster Recovery: Demand for resilient infrastructure and disaster recovery projects due to natural disasters. ◉ Key Players in the Sector 1. Fluor Corporation NYSE:FLR : A global leader in engineering and construction, focusing on energy, chemicals, and infrastructure projects. 2. AECOM NYSE:ACM : A multinational firm providing design, consulting, and construction services for infrastructure, transportation, and environmental projects. 3. Quanta Services NYSE:PWR : A leading provider of specialized infrastructure services for the electric power, oil, and gas industries, including renewable energy projects. 4. Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX : A major player in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) services for commercial and industrial buildings. 5. Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM : Provides construction services for energy, utilities, and infrastructure projects, with a growing focus on renewable energy. This report provides a comparative analysis of Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, and Primoris Services Corporation, examining their competitive dynamics in the U.S. construction and engineering sector. ◉ Technical Standings ➖ The charts for PWR, FIX, and PRIM exhibit similar trends, with stock prices currently experiencing a strong uptrend. ➖ Based on this momentum, it is expected that this trend will persist, driving prices even higher in the near future. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● PWR ➖ Q3 FY24 sales: $6.493 billion, up 16% sequentially and 15.5% YoY. ➖ Q3 EBITDA: $619 million, a significant increase from $463 million in Q2 and $542 million in Q3 FY23. ● FIX ➖ Q3 sales: $1.812 billion, flat sequentially but up 30% YoY. ➖ Q3 EBITDA: $238 million, up from $223 million in Q2 and $155 million in Q3 FY23. ● PRIM ➖ Q3 sales: $1.649 billion, an 8% YoY increase and the highest quaterly sales ever. ➖ Q3 EBITDA: $123 million, up from $112 million in Q2. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ PWR stands at a P/E ratio of 54.2x. ➖ FIX is at a P/E ratio of 32.3x. ➖ PRIM shows a P/E ratio of 24.3x. ◾ These numbers indicate that PRIM is considerably undervalued when compared to its competitors. ● P/B Ratio ➖ PWR's P/B ratio stands at 6.2x. ➖ FIX's P/B ratio is 9.5x. ➖ On the other hand, PRIM's P/B ratio is significantly lower at 3x. ● PEG Ratio ➖ PWR boasts a PEG ratio of 3.54. ➖ FIX’S PEG ratio is recorded at 0.66. ➖ PRIM, meanwhile, has a PEG ratio of 0.90. ◾ Analyzing the PEG ratios reveals that FIX is currently undervalued relative to its peers. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis All three companies have reported significant improvements in operating cash flow for Q3 FY24: ➖ PWR saw an 82% increase to $740 million (LTM), up from $391 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23. ➖ FIX reported a 41% rise to $302 million (LTM), compared to $214 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23. ➖ PRIM achieved a 133% increase to $416 million (LTM), up from $178 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ PWR has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.6. ➖ FIX shows a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.19. ➖ In contrast, PRIM has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.73. ◾ FIX boasts the lowest debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a stronger balance sheet and reduced reliance on debt financing compared to its peers. ◉ Top Shareholders ● PWR ➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.4% ➖ BlackRock - 7.62% ● FIX ➖ The Vanguard Group - 10.5% ➖ BlackRock - 14% ● PRIM ➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.5% ➖ BlackRock - 10.4% ◉ Conclusion After a comprehensive analysis of the major players in the U.S. Construction & Engineering sector, including an in-depth review of technical capabilities and financial performance, Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM emerges as a standout candidate. The company’s robust financial health, supported by strong cash reserves, positions it well to navigate challenges such as debt concerns. The sector as a whole is poised for significant growth, driven by massive government spending on infrastructure and the ongoing trend of rapid urbanization. For investors, this presents a compelling opportunity. However, it is essential to conduct thorough research, establish clear investment objectives, and maintain a long-term perspective to capitalize on this growth while effectively managing risks.
NYSE:PWRLong
by NaranjCapital
6
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 29, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision EURUSD: On Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate experienced a slight decline, dropping six-tenths of a percentage point to the 1.04000 mark as financial markets prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) statement scheduled for Wednesday. Market analysis indicates a strong likelihood of the Fed maintaining its current interest rates in January. However, investors will be closely monitoring not only the content of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference, but also any potential tweets from US President Donald Trump. The economic calendar for the first half of the week features no significant European data, with traders having to wait until Thursday's release of gross domestic product (GDP) data from both Germany and the EU for the fourth quarter.US President Donald Trump resumed his aggressive tariff programme late on Monday, reiterating his intention to impose high duties on imports of a wide range of foreign goods and industries. The latest version of the plan includes unspecified tariffs on steel, copper, aluminium, various semiconductors and foreign microprocessors in general, with the aim of encouraging foreign companies to move their factories to the US.It is not an easy task to convince these industries to shift production to the domestic market, as setting up plants in the US is usually costly and US labour requires significantly higher wages compared to countries that produce manufactured goods on a large scale. Consequently, import duties are unlikely to significantly impact production decisions; instead, they could lead to inflation and reduced consumer spending.The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. While no change in the federal funds rate is expected this week, traders will be closely monitoring the developing tensions between Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump. The Fed's significant autonomy limits the White House's influence over interest rates, and President Trump has previously expressed dissatisfaction with this.Trump's recent comments that he will 'demand' lower interest rates are expected to influence Fed Chairman Powell's upcoming press conference. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 23, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) rose during the Asian session on Thursday following the release of better-than-expected Japanese trade balance data, although it remains close to a one-week low against its US counterpart from the previous day.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates imminently, a prospect which continues to support the yen. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) anticipated interest rate cuts this year are a factor in the subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, which is limiting the USD/JPY pair's recovery from a more than one-month low reached on Tuesday. Nevertheless, JPY bulls seem reluctant to take a risk and prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the crucial two-day Bank of Japan meeting that starts this Thursday. Concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and risk-on sentiment may also deter further yen appreciation, but the diverging policy expectations of the BoJ and Fed require some caution before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has formed a short-term bottom.Traders now await Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum to build momentum ahead of the expected BoJ decision on Friday. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 156.500, trading mainly with Buy orders
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 20, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) has seen an influx of buyers following its decline in the Asian session and a pause in its correction from the nearly four-week high reached on Friday against its US counterpart. An increase in Japan's core machinery orders for the second consecutive month has indicated a potential recovery in capital spending. Additionally, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates at its meeting later this week is also supporting the yen, which, along with moderate weakening in the US dollar (USD), has led the USD/JPY pairing back below 156.000 over the past hour. Despite growing confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-cutting cycle this month, signs of weakening US inflation may allow the central bank to continue lowering borrowing costs into 2025, which has been a key factor in the recent decline in US Treasury bond yields. This has narrowed the yield differential between the US and Japan and provided further support for the yen. However, the potential for new US President Donald Trump's trade policies to impact market sentiment could influence the yen's performance, particularly in anticipation of the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 156.000, if we consolidate above it we consider Buy positions, if we rebound we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
BNB → Big Accumulation. In Step With The DistributionBINANCE:BNBUSDT is trying to move into the realization phase after quite a long accumulation, thanks to which the coin can give a very good growth. The coin tested the strong support of 645 within the correction. False break of the support and quite aggressive buyout of the fall indicates buying potential. Bitcoin, which is testing the highs and ready to go even higher is a good driver for BNB Accordingly, the focus is on near-term levels. If the price can break the near-term resistance and consolidate above, the market will further go to break ATH and try to renew it. Resistance levels: 761, 793 Support levels: 691, 645 I don't exclude that the unexpected correction of bitcoin can provoke a correction in the cryptocurrency market, but in general the structure is bullish. High probability of resistance breakdown with the purpose of continuation of movement
by MarketAnalyzar
BTC → Consolidation Before The Breakout When Do We Go Up?BINANCE:BNBUSDT continues to consolidate, but within a strong bullish structure. The price is approaching the trigger, the breakout of which may provoke the formation of an upward impulse A good signal that hints that the growth is likely to continue is the fact that after a strong growth and testing 100K the price does not fall, but consolidates with gradually rising local lows, it is also worth paying attention to MA-50, which acts as a strong support. Within this consolidation we have clear zones, within which the price is trading and accumulating potential, and there is also a clear trigger, the breakout of which can provoke the continuation of growth (distribution). But next week is the Fed meeting on December 17-18, and there may be short-term market manipulative reactions. Be careful Resistance levels: 101.8K, 104.1K Support levels: 98.9K, 94.15K Technically, the focus is on 101.8 - 98.9. Consolidation is forming inside this channel. I do not exclude a chance of support retest in the format of a false breakdown before further growth. Another deep correction to the lower liquidity zone - 94.1K is also possible. But until the price breaks 101.8, bitcoin will not go up, and based on the chart, the event is close and the chance is high
by MarketAnalyzar
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 8, 2024 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today: 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes EURUSD: On Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined against the US dollar, falling by four-tenths of a percentage point after a failed recovery to 1.04000. The pair is currently trading below last week's 26-month low, but the difference is minimal. Market analysts are optimistic about a reversal, as the Federal Reserve continues to recover towards 1.02000. The European Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was published in line with expectations, with the annual HICP for the year ending December rising slightly to 2.4% y/y from the previous reading of 2.2%.However, much of the upward pressure in European inflation figures appears to be either embedded in older figures or related to non-structural items, giving Euro traders some hope that things will continue to improve. In contrast, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business activity survey and the ISM Services price data for December were both weaker than expected, raising concerns among market participants that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be able to deliver as many rate cuts in 2025 as investors had originally anticipated. In the US, the agenda for the upcoming trading session includes the release of December ADP employment change data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. While ADP employment data is not considered a reliable predictor of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, traders are not overreacting to significant deviations from forecasts.Investors will be looking for any indications that could potentially lead to a rate cut before June, which includes a notable softening of the labour market. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025Comprehensive Gold Analysis for the Week of January 6, 2025 Gold enters 2025 with a complex yet promising outlook, driven by a combination of macroeconomic, technical, and geopolitical factors shaping a favorable environment for investors. Below is an in-depth analysis of the current market conditions and potential scenarios for gold this week. Current Market Context Gold concluded the first trading week of January near $2,657 per ounce , consolidating its upward momentum from late 2024. This movement has been underpinned by: - Sustained central bank demand , particularly in emerging markets. - Geopolitical uncertainty , including tensions in the Middle East and Europe. - Expectations for looser monetary policies from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed). In 2024, gold achieved an exceptional annual gain of +27% , its best performance since 2010, driven by its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The metal reached an all-time high of $2,790 , setting the stage for continued volatility and opportunity in 2025. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. Global Monetary Policies - The Fed adopted a cautious stance in December, signaling a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is only an 11.2% probability of a rate cut in January, suggesting short-term stability in interest rates. - In contrast, Europe and China are expected to pursue more accommodative monetary policies. China has already announced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to counter its economic slowdown. 2. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East remain significant drivers of safe-haven demand. - Additionally, uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies under President Donald Trump is adding to market volatility. While some policies may bolster the dollar, others—such as trade tariffs—could increase demand for gold as a hedge. 3. Central Bank and Physical Demand - Central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves since 2022, with purchases expected to exceed the historical average of 500 tons annually in 2025. - In China, a weakening yuan and a sluggish real estate market could further boost physical gold demand. Technical Analysis Gold is currently trading within a critical range that could determine its short-term trajectory: - Key Resistance Levels: - $2,666 (psychological barrier). - $2,700 (significant technical resistance). - All-time highs near $2,790 . - Key Support Levels : - $2,635 , aligned with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). - Lower levels around $2,600 and $2,532 , which could act as correction zones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near neutral territory (50), indicating potential for upward movement if immediate resistance is breached. However, the range between $2,607 and $2,736 will be pivotal in defining this week’s trend. Projections for This Week Bullish Scenario A decisive breakout above $2,666 could pave the way for further gains toward psychological levels at $2,700 and potentially beyond. Catalysts for this scenario include: - Weak U.S. economic data—such as Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report—supporting expectations for monetary easing. - Escalation of geopolitical tensions or clear indications of additional Chinese stimulus. Bearish or Corrective Scenario Conversely, unexpected strength in the U.S. dollar or robust economic data could exert downward pressure on gold prices. In this case: - A pullback toward support levels at $2,635 or even $2,600 would be likely before resuming the broader uptrend. Strategic Insights Gold maintains a favorable outlook for this week due to strong fundamental and technical support. However, traders should closely monitor three key factors: 1. The release of U.S. labor market data (NFP) on Friday. 2. Movements in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields. 3. Emerging geopolitical developments that could shift risk sentiment. The current consolidation near critical technical levels offers opportunities for both bullish and corrective strategies. Active risk management will be essential given the anticipated volatility.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn96005149
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 02, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 157.300 in the early hours of Asian trading on Thursday.Expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for a long time are boosting the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).Markets in Japan are closed for the rest of the week.On Friday, we will be keeping a close eye on the S&P Global US Manufacturing Activity Index for December. Traders are currently digesting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut rates by a quarter point at its December meeting, which was characterised by a hawkish sentiment. Analysts are anticipating that some of Trump's policy proposals, including tariffs, could potentially lead to higher inflation. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that it is too early to predict this, emphasising that the central bank will proceed with caution regarding further rate cuts.The significant difference in interest rates between the US and Japan is likely to provide a favourable tailwind for the pair in the near term. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last week that the central bank anticipates the Japanese economy will move closer to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably this year.The BOJ is scheduled to release its quarterly report on the regional economy next week, which is likely to include an assessment of wage increases across the country. This report may provide insights into the BOJ's subsequent policy decision on 24 January. Meanwhile, verbal intervention by Japanese authorities may help limit the JPY's losses, with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noting on Friday that the official will take appropriate measures against excessive currency fluctuations. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 157.000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 30, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair has risen for the third consecutive day, trading around the 1.04300 mark during Asian hours on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the remarks made by Robert Holtzmann, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB).On Saturday, the ECB's Holtzmann said that the central bank's next interest rate cut could be more protracted after the recent rise in inflation, as reported by Reuters. He also said: 'I don't see a rate hike at the moment'. 'One plausible scenario is that Trump's tariffs will lead to slower growth overall and also create inflationary pressures'. Moreover, the upside potential of the EUR/USD pair could be limited as markets continue to digest the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) aggressive bias.The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point at its December meeting, and recent dot plots point to two rate cuts next year. However, earlier this month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that officials will be cautious about further rate cuts after the expected quarter-point rate cut.The Fed's aggressive outlook is likely to support the US dollar and boost EUR/USD in the near term.Economists generally expect the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump to implement tax cuts, tariffs and deregulation, measures expected to spur inflation. This could prompt the U.S. central bank to adjust its forecast for the coming year. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 27, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is losing stability near 157.750 during the early Asian session on Friday, following the release of Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.The Japanese yen (JPY) rose after the data was released. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the New Year holiday next week. The Statistics Bureau of Japan released data on Friday showing that Tokyo's core CPI rose to 3.0% y/y in December from 2.6% in November, while Tokyo's consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy was 2.4% y/y in December from 2.2% previously. The reading is likely to encourage the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising the interest rate in January. Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank anticipates the Japanese economy will move closer to meeting the BoJ's 2 per cent inflation target sustainably next year. Ueda added that the timing and pace of adjustments in the degree of monetary accommodation will depend on future developments in economic activity and prices, as well as financial conditions. Regarding the US dollar, the anticipation of a reduced number of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may offer near-term support.The Fed reduced interest rates by a quarter point at its December meeting and has revised its forecast for 2025, predicting just two rate cuts, down from an initial estimate of four. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 158.000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week. The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPAUD to the moon?Taking a long position on GBPAUD, main reasons being: - BoE holding interest rates for now and less rate cuts are expected next year, could drive more institutions to hold GBP and increase it's value - AUD are trade partners with China who are experiencing significant economic instability - COT traders are 57% long on GBP (+2.14% compared to last week) - COT traders are 52% long on AUD, but are adding more short positions (-4.53% change in net long positions compared to last week) - Retail traders are 93% short on GBPAUD (I find that retail is usually wrong, so this is a positive signal for GBPAUD longs in my book) This trade is more based on Australia's weakness rather than Britain's strength. I was also thinking of shorting AUDJPY (see previous trade idea) or AUDUSD. I couldn't get in a position that I liked on AUDJPY (yet) and I'm already in a short position on EURUSD, so I want to diversify a bit away from the US Dollar. The reason I'm entering here is because it is filling an imbalance candle, and it's also at the 0.682 mark on the Fibonacci retracement tool. If I get taken out I don't mind, there may be better entries on GBPAUD available if that happens, or there may be an opportunity to short AUDJPY instead, which I prefer the fundamentals of. Don't take this as investment advice, I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Please don't follow me blindly, create your own strategy and ideas.
Long
by ciantrades
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