GBPUSD SHORT: USA SERVICES PMI HIGHER THAN EXPECTEDS&P global Services PMI 57.0 versus 55.2 estimates. Looking to short this pair.
Fundamentalanalsysis
EURJPY SHORT: PMI Data came out lower than expectedEuro slumps to near two-year low as PMI data disappoints.
Eurozone November flash services PMI 49.2 vs 51.6 expected
Trade happened to fast to post beforehand.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 20, 2024 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
15:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks
EURUSD:
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD was trading between the 1.0550 and 1.06000 levels. It tested the lower boundary but then recovered, adding just 0.14% for the day. The final data on EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation had little impact on market movements, and the greenback will have to settle for a limited release schedule this week.
The European core HICP inflation rate remained at 2.0% y/y in October, in line with preliminary data. The data did not generate interest in the euro markets and was not a focus on either side of the bid-ask spread. US data remains inactive until the second half of the trading week, when jobless claims and retail sales data will be released.
On Wednesday, ECB President Lagarde will deliver the opening remarks at the ECB's Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy Conference. The ECB finds itself in a challenging position, with European inflation holding firm against initial expectations and the broader European economy displaying a lopsided tilt.
The first half of the US trading week will see few economic data releases. On Thursday, average initial jobless claims will be published, which are expected to show a slight increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the week ending 15 November. US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released this week, but will not impact investors until Friday.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.06000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
DON'T SELL HIMS UNTIL YOU WATCH THIS FIRST!DON'T SELL YOUR NYSE:HIMS SHARES UNTIL YOU WATCH THIS FIRST🛑
In this video, we will discuss:
-Why you shouldn't sell on the NASDAQ:AMZN health news
-Amazons multiple failed business adventures
-How NYSE:HIMS is still ok even if Amazon is successful
-Fundamental and Technical analysis
You will want to buy not sell after you watch this video
NFA
EURUSD LONG TRADE IDEAMARKET MAKERS BIAS (CFTC COT INDEX REPORT)
>Commercials (Blue Line) - Still at the Bullish zone
>Retailers (Red Line) - Still at the Bearish zone (Always Wrong)
>Fund Managers (Orange Line) - The Trend Followers, They are rolling over positions and added long positions this week.
Value Correlation vs. USD
>Oversold (Bullish), The EURO is 98% Negatively Correlated to US Dollar
Technical Analysis
>Since our bias for the money makers and Value Correlation analysis is Bullish, therefore we use Supply and Demand to look for a reason to be Bullish which is to find a Quality demand zone
>Our highlighted Weekly/Daily Demand zone has explosive imbalance candles that could mean there could still be unfilled orders that was not filled before.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It reflects general market fundamentals and personal speculation. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trade at your own risk.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 08, 2024 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today:
17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment
18:00 EET. USD - FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining towards 1.07800 due to increased demand for the US dollar during Asian trading hours on Friday. Furthermore, the prospect of increased tariffs under the Trump administration is exerting downward pressure on the euro relative to the US dollar. Analysts anticipate further market movements based on the release of the expanded Michigan consumer sentiment data for November, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Michelle Bowman on Friday.
As anticipated, the US Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting on Thursday. The US central bank is keen to avoid any further weakening of the labour market and still anticipates a gradual decline in inflation towards the Fed's 2% target. It is anticipated that the Fed will continue to reduce interest rates at forthcoming meetings, although the precise timing remains unclear. The Fed will continue to assess data in order to determine the appropriate pace and direction of interest rate cuts.
Mr. Trump has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, which has exerted downward pressure on the euro. The European Union has the second-largest trade deficit with the United States in the world and is the largest exporter to the United States, according to JPMorgan.
Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is reducing interest rates at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve. This may result in a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. The ECB has already reduced rates three times this year due to declining inflation risks in the Eurozone. Growing expectations of another rate cut are contributing to the euro's decline in the near term.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.08000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 7, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today:
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision
USDJPY:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty in registering a notable recovery against its US counterpart and is currently trading at a level approaching its lowest point since 30 July. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) limited ability to raise interest rates and the prevailing risk-on environment continue to undermine the safe-haven yen. Furthermore, the rise in US Treasury bond yields, driven by the return of Republican Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States (US), has contributed to the downward pressure on the low-yielding yen.
Meanwhile, the overnight decline prompted a verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, which may provide some support to the yen and help limit losses. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading just below the four-month high reached on Wednesday, amid optimism over growth and inflation. This could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates. This could provide further encouragement for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision this Thursday.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 6, 2024 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
16:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining in Asian trading on Wednesday. The US dollar is gaining ground as voters favour former US President Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election.
The polls are now closing in 15 states, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. Mr. Trump is currently outperforming Mr. Biden in rural areas, while Ms. Harris is outperforming him in suburban areas. The strengthening of Trump's trade position is providing further support to the US dollar (USD) against the euro (EUR).
Steve Englander, head of G10 global currency research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, commented, "At present, the outlook appears to favour Trump." Mr. Englander further noted that throughout October and early November, the Trump trade had favored a stronger dollar and higher yields.
The outcome of the US presidential election will be a key factor influencing the dollar's momentum this week. However, investors will be monitoring the Federal Reserve's (the Fed) monetary policy decision, which is scheduled for announcement on Thursday.
In Europe, positive Eurozone GDP data prompted traders to reduce their bets on a larger-than-usual interest rate cut at the December meeting. The market anticipates that the ECB will cut the deposit rate by the usual 25 basis points (bps) in December. nvestors will be keeping an eye on ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech on Wednesday.
Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 5, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing a decline against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session, moving away from the one-week high reached the previous day. Nonetheless, the probability of a Japanese Yen decline is constrained as market participants may exercise caution in making aggressive directional bets due to the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Furthermore, expectations of an interest rate increase at the forthcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in December may also provide support for the yen.
Meanwhile, the unwinding of the Trump trade, as well as expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this week, is driving US Treasury yields further lower, resulting in a narrowing rate differential between the US and Japan. This maintains a defensive position for those betting on the US dollar and should serve as a tailwind for the yen. Furthermore, a decline in market risk may favour the JPY and help contain a significant rise in the USD/JPY pair.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 4, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair saw a notable increase in value on Monday, reaching 1.29700 amid a weaker US dollar in Asian trading hours. The US dollar (USD) continues to face selling pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which provided some support for the major pair.
Following a 50-basis-point cut to rates in September, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to implement a further 25-basis-point reduction in its discount rate at its November meeting. The probability of this outcome is estimated by the markets to be around 97%. The US dollar is experiencing a decline as traders anticipate the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.
Analysts anticipate that Donald Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will exert upward pressure on inflation, Treasury yields and the US dollar, while Kamala Harris is regarded as a potential successor. "There is a widespread view that a Trump victory would have a positive effect on the US dollar, although many believe that such an outcome has already been priced in," said Chris Weston, an analyst at brokerage Pepperstone.
Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce interest rates on Thursday, despite predictions that the Labour budget could result in higher inflation in the UK next year. Market sentiment is that the Bank of England will announce its second 25 bp rate cut this year, taking it down to 4.75 per cent.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.30000, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
GOOGLE SHORT TRADE OUTLOOK ON EARNINGS REPORT DAY OCT.29, 2024NASDAQ:GOOGL
WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
>P/E Ratio (Quarterly Lookback): Google's P/E is currently at around 25, signaling overvaluation (typically anything equal or above 25 is considered overvalued).
>Correlation: Both Google's P/E ratio and value compared to Treasury bonds are flashing overvalued signals.
DAILY OUTLOOK:
>Short-term and long-term value correlations vs T-bonds and P/E ratios suggest the stock may remain overbought until the upcoming earnings report, which could act as a catalyst.
>Election Year Seasonality is strongly bearish as well.
TECHNICAL INSIGHT:
>GOOG may pull back to fill a previous price gaps before slowing down.
Stay sharp, traders! 🎯 #GOOG #ShortTrade #MarketAnalysis #Investing
Disclaimer: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It reflects general market fundamentals and personal speculation. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Trade at your own risk.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 25, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) failed to capitalise on the previous day's recovery move against its US counterpart, attracting fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday. The latest data, published on Thursday, revealed a contraction in business activity across Japan's manufacturing and services sectors in October. Furthermore, the decline in Tokyo's core inflation rate below the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target has led to a reduction in expectations of additional rate hikes in 2024, placing some pressure on the yen.
Furthermore, the prevailing positive sentiment towards risk factors is eroding the JPY's status as a safe haven currency. This, coupled with the emergence of some US dollar (USD) buying, is providing support for the USD/JPY pair near the mid-151.000 level. However, the recent verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities is helping to prevent a significant drop in the JPY and limit the currency pair's decline. In light of the upcoming general election in Japan on Sunday, traders are monitoring the release of macroeconomic data from the US for short-term momentum amid ongoing political uncertainty.
Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 152.000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
GBPJPY OCT 24 pending order sell limit activatedThis trade was established during london and new york session. It is a bit tricky because of the range cause by the london session, respecting demand and supply (5min TF - fractal). The sell limit was activated after certain NEWS during N.Y session. It was then come to fruition after 3hrs.
RR : 7:1
supply and demand zone.
(please check the chart for reference)
Price at Supply zoneMultiples supports at 200 ema.
Last few days seen a volume spurt in daily time frame.
Fundamentals are OK.
FII & DII stakes are up.
NOTE: I do my analysis, do yours before trade.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 24, 2024 GBPUSDEvents to pay attention to today:
11:30 GMT+3. GBP - PMI Composite
22:45 GMT+3. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks
GBPUSD:
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by an additional 0.5%, reaching a new ten-week low and moving closer to 1.29000. The UK and US will release Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday, with updates provided on a rolling basis. Investors will also be monitoring speeches from central bankers at both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The Pound declined further on Wednesday, with markets showing weakness due to a broad US Dollar recovery and investors awaiting an overall decline in the UK PMI for October.
The median market forecast is for a slight downturn in UK activity figures, with the services PMI for October expected to fall to 52.2 from 52.4 in the previous month. In the US, the median market forecast is for a mixed outcome in October's PMI reading. The manufacturing PMI component is expected to rise to 47.5 from 47.3, while the services PMI component is expected to fall slightly to 55.0 from 55.2.
Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 23, 2024 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
17:00 GMT+3. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks
EURUSD:
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair saw further downside movement, retreating by an additional 0.16% and testing a key technical barrier that could potentially result in new 16-week lows if the euro price base is reached.
On Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde made several statements, but their content ranged from the mundane to the unremarkable, which had little impact on the euro's performance. In a statement released today, ECB President Lagarde said that the ECB was 'not dissatisfied with what she saw' but that the ECB 'cannot jump to the conclusion that the inflation target is a done deal'. This statement inspired absolutely no confidence in the euro and provided little guidance for currency markets, which are seeing the euro retreat against the dollar for the fourth week in a row.
The release of global PMI data is scheduled for Thursday. Market expectations are high for the EU PMI results, with average market forecasts indicating a modest increase in October's EU services PMI from September's 51.4 to 51.6.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.08000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 21, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair has been unable to capitalise on the modest recovery gains recorded over the past two days and has been fluctuating in a narrow range around 1.30500-1.30450 during Monday's Asian session. Spot prices remain close to the one-month low reached last Thursday and are likely to extend the recent pullback from the 1.34350 area, the highest level since March 2022.
The unexpected decline in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its lowest level since April 2021 and below the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target has increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) at the 7 November meeting. Furthermore, market expectations are that the Bank of England may cut interest rates again in December, which could continue to exert pressure on the British pound. This, along with the bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, indicates a negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
The market is increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will continue to moderate rate cuts next year, which is keeping US Treasury yields high and acting as a tailwind for the dollar. Furthermore, geopolitical risks are providing additional support for the US dollar.
In the absence of any market-important economic releases from the UK or the US, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop indicates that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is downwards. Therefore, any intraday upward movement should be viewed as a potential selling opportunity. However, those with a bearish outlook may wait for a consolidation below the 1.30000 psychological mark before placing new bets and positioning for a decline towards the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) support, which currently sits at around 1.29600.
Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy y orders from the current price level.
SWING IDEA - ANDHRSUGARStock seems to have completed its Lower Low Price Action and MACD looks to form Higher Lows.
Good Election Results has also helped the stock to start picking up momentum now. It could start seeing the Price Action change directions to Higher High and Higher Low Patterns.
There seems to a Convergence Divergence in play as well.
The newly elected CM will have his swearing in ceremony on June 12.
Also 112 currently seems to have formed as an immediate support level. This is also a Key Support level now for the stock to maintain in order to go up further.
The Payment Card Titan: Comparing Visa, Mastercard, and Amex◉ Abstract
The global credit card market is projected to grow from USD 559.18 billion in 2023 to USD 1,146.62 billion by 2033, driven by advancements in digital payment technologies, e-commerce growth, increased financial literacy, and urbanization, especially in Asia-Pacific.
Visa leads the market with a 38.73% share, followed by Mastercard and American Express. Visa and Mastercard operate primarily as payment networks, while American Express both issues cards and offers unique rewards. Financially, all three companies show strong revenue growth, with American Express yielding the highest ROI but also carrying significant debt.
Despite this debt, American Express appears undervalued based on financial ratios. Overall, while American Express presents an attractive investment opportunity, Visa and Mastercard also demonstrate solid fundamentals and growth potential for investors in the expanding credit card market.
Read the full analysis here . . .
◉ Introduction
The Global Credit Card Market Size was Valued at USD 559.18 Billion in 2023 and the Worldwide Credit Card Market Size is Expected to Reach USD 1146.62 Billion by 2033,
◉ Key Growth Drivers
● Digitalization and Technology: Advancements in payment technologies, including mobile wallets and contactless payments, enhance convenience and security.
● E-Commerce Growth: The rise of online shopping increases demand for credit card payments, as consumers prefer their ease and safety.
● Financial Literacy: Improved understanding of financial products encourages more consumers, especially in developing regions, to adopt credit cards.
● Urbanization: Growing urban populations, particularly in Asia-Pacific, lead to greater access to banking services and credit facilities.
● Emerging Markets: Rising disposable incomes in developing countries drive new credit card accounts as financial institutions expand their offerings.
● Consumer Convenience: The preference for quick and easy payment methods boosts credit card usage over cash transactions.
● Rewards Programs: Attractive loyalty programs incentivize consumers to use credit cards for everyday purchases.
● Regulatory Support: Government initiatives promoting cashless transactions foster a favourable environment for credit card adoption.
◉ Market Overview
As of 2022, the global credit card market was primarily led by Visa, which held a 38.73% share of the worldwide payment volume. Mastercard followed with a 24% market share, while American Express (Amex) accounted for 4.61%. Notably, China UnionPay is also a major player in this space, surpassing Amex in terms of purchase volume
◉ Key Players in the Payment Card Industry
1. Visa NYSE:V
● Market Cap: $552 B
● Market Share: 38.73%
● Business Model: Payment network facilitating transactions between consumers, businesses, banks, and governments globally.
● Card Issuance: Does not issue cards itself.
● Global Reach: Extensive acceptance network across more than 200 countries.
2. Mastercard NYSE:MA
● Market Cap: $474 B
● Market Share: 24%
● Business Model: Payment processor and network partnering with banks to offer various card products.
● Card Issuance: Does not issue cards itself.
● Global Reach: Broad acceptance worldwide with diverse products catering to different consumer needs.
3. American Express NYSE:AXP
● Market Cap: $203 B
● Market Share: 4.61%
● Business Model: Card issuer and payment network offering unique benefits and rewards directly to cardholders.
● Card Issuance: Issues its own cards.
● Global Reach: High acceptance rate in the US (99% of merchants), lower in Europe and Asia due to higher transaction fees.
◉ Technical Aspects
● From a technical perspective, there's a notable similarity among the three stocks: each is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows.
● All three stocks have formed a Rounding Bottom pattern, and after breaking out, their prices have climbed to new heights.
● While Mastercard and American Express are currently trading at their all-time highs, Visa is positioned just below its peak.
◉ Relative Strength
The chart vividly demonstrates that American Express has excelled remarkably, achieving a return of nearly 85%, whereas Mastercard and Visa have delivered returns of 28% and 20%, respectively.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
1. Visa
● Year-over-Year
➖ In FY23, Visa achieved a remarkable revenue increase of 11.4%, reaching $32.7 billion, up from $29.3 billion in FY22.
➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also saw a significant rise, totalling $22.9 billion compared to $20.6 billion in FY22.
● Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest June quarter, Visa's revenue rose to $8.9 billion, slightly surpassing the $8.8 billion reported in March 2024. This reflects a year-over-year growth of nearly 9.5% from $8.1 billion in the same quarter last year.
➖ The EBITDA for the most recent June quarter reached $6.2 billion, indicating an almost 9% increase from $5.7 billion in the same quarter last year.
➖ In June, the diluted EPS saw a modest rise, climbing to $9.35 (LTM) from $8.94 (LTM) in March 2024, which represents a notable year-over-year increase of 18.6% from $30.3 (LTM).
2. Mastercard
● Year-over-Year
➖ Mastercard's revenue for FY23 experienced a robust growth of 12.9%, reaching $25.1 billion, up from $22.2 billion in FY22.
➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also increased, reporting $22.9 billion, up from $20.6 billion in FY22.
● Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the recent June quarter, Mastercard's revenue climbed to $7.0 billion, compared to $6.3 billion in March 2024. Year-over-year, this marks an increase of nearly 11% from $6.3 billion in the same quarter last year.
➖ The EBITDA for the latest June quarter was $4.4 billion, reflecting an almost 9% rise from $3.9 billion in March 2024.
➖ In June, the diluted EPS saw a slight increase, rising to $13.08 (LTM) from $12.59 (LTM) in March 2024, which is a significant year-over-year increase of 23% from $10.67 (LTM).
3. American Express
● Year-over-Year
➖ For the fiscal year 2023, the company experienced a remarkable revenue growth of 9.7%, reaching an impressive $55.6 billion, compared to $50.7 billion in fiscal year 2022.
➖ Additionally, operating income showed a positive trajectory, with fiscal year 2023 reporting $10.8 billion, an increase from $10 billion in the previous fiscal year.
● Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest June quarter, revenue continued its upward trend, totalling $15.1 billion, up from $14.5 billion in March 2024. This represents a significant year-over-year growth of nearly 8.7% from $13.9 billion in the June quarter of the previous year.
➖ Furthermore, operating income for the June quarter reached $3.2 billion, marking a substantial increase of almost 19% from $2.7 billion in the same quarter last year.
➖ The diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a remarkable rise in June, climbing to $13.39 (LTM) from $12.14 (LTM) in March 2024, which is a significant jump of 36% compared to $9.83 (LTM) in the same quarter last year.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
➖ Visa stands at a P/E ratio of 29.1x.
➖ Mastercard is at a P/E ratio of 38.7x.
➖ American Express shows a P/E ratio of 20.6x.
➖ When we analyze these figures, it becomes clear that American Express appears significantly undervalued compared to its peers.
● P/B Ratio
➖ Visa has a P/B ratio of 14.3x.
➖ Mastercard's P/B ratio is a staggering 64x.
➖ American Express, however, has a P/B ratio of just 6.8x.
This further reinforces the notion that American Express is currently undervalued in the market.
● PEG Ratio
➖ Visa's PEG ratio is 1.56.
➖ Mastercard's PEG stands at 1.71.
➖ American Express shines with a PEG ratio of just 0.56.
➖ This metric also highlights American Express's superior value proposition compared to its peers.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
➖ Visa's operating cash flow for the fiscal year 2023 has risen to $20.8 billion, marking a notable increase from $18.8 billion in fiscal year 2022.
➖ Similarly, Mastercard has experienced growth in its operating cash flow, which has reached $12 billion in fiscal year 2023, up from $11.2 billion in the previous year.
➖ In contrast, American Express has reported a significant decline in its operating cash flow, decreasing from $21.1 billion in fiscal year 2022 to $18.6 billion in fiscal year 2023.
◉ Debt Analysis
1. Visa
● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.52 as of June 2024, indicating a stable financial structure with moderate leverage.
● Total Debt: About $20.6 billion.
● Total Shareholder Equity: $39.7 billion.
● Analysis: Visa's ratio reflects a cautious debt approach, balancing equity and debt financing, with net debt well-supported by operating cash flow, enhancing financial stability.
2. Mastercard
● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 2.10, indicating a higher reliance on debt compared to Visa 5.
● Total Debt: $15.6 billion.
● Total Shareholder Equity: $7.5 billion.
● Analysis: Mastercard’s higher ratio suggests it is more aggressive in leveraging debt for growth initiatives compared to Visa. This strategy may lead to greater volatility in earnings due to interest obligations.
3. American Express
● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 1.80, indicating a significant level of debt relative to equity 5.
● Total Debt: $53.2 billion.
● Total Shareholder Equity: $29.54 billion.
● Analysis: American Express’s ratio shows a strong reliance on debt financing, which can enhance growth but also introduces risks related to interest payments and market conditions.
◉ Top Shareholders
1. Visa
● The Vanguard Group has notably boosted its investment in Visa, now commanding a remarkable 7.52% share, reflecting a 0.62% increase since the close of the March quarter.
● In contrast, Blackrock maintains a stake of approximately 6.7% in the firm.
2. Mastercard
● When it comes to Mastercard, Vanguard has also made strides, raising its ownership to an impressive 8.27%, which is a 1.02% uptick since the end of March.
● Blackrock, on the other hand, has a substantial 7.56% stake, showing a 1.17% growth from the same period.
3. American Express
● As for American Express, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway boasts a significant 21.3% stake in the company.
● Meanwhile, Vanguard holds a 6.36% interest, while Blackrock has a 5.89% share.
◉ Conclusion
After a thorough analysis of both technical and financial indicators, we find that American Express offers a compelling valuation opportunity that is likely to attract investors. Nonetheless, it is important to recognize the significant debt load the company carries, a concern that also extends to Mastercard.
● From a technical standpoint, the chart for American Express seems to be stretched thin. Investors might want to hold off for a corrective dip to secure a more advantageous entry point.
● Mastercard's financial results reflect solid performance, though it carries a high level of debt. The technical chart indicates a slight overvaluation. Savvy investors might look to build their positions during times of price stabilization.
● Visa presents a well-rounded synergy between its technical and fundamental metrics. Its chart reveals a remarkable rebound, approaching previous all-time highs after a notable decline. The company's valuation and growth potential make it a compelling investment choice.
Audjpy signalAfter the release of strong employment data from Australia, the AUD/JPY currency pair increased by more than 100 dollars. Considering the interest rate differential between the two countries and the lack of further rate hikes in Japan, the likelihood of the first scenario is higher. The second scenario is more likely if the market becomes risk off, leading to the rise of safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen. In that case, we would expect to see a decline in the AUD/JPY pair down to the bottom of the triangle pattern.
Target for the first scenario (long trade): 101.425
Target for the second scenario (short trade): 99.705
Fundamental analysis of the market for 16.10.2024 GBPUSDGBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3065 today, although it lacks bullish confidence. The release of the UK Consumer Price Index news event weakened the Pound against the Dollar.
Ahead of the key data release, speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may move to accelerate its rate cut cycle continues to undermine the British Pound (GBP) and act as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, the moderate decline in the US Dollar (USD) is providing some support to the currency pair and helping to limit the downside.
From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action can still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase amid the recent pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022, reached last month. In addition, the oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still far from the oversold zone.
Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
TSLA BULLISH
Tesla's recent event showcased the Cybercab and Robovan, advancing its vision of autonomous transport, but it left investors questioning the practicality and timelines. This skepticism led to mixed reactions and a drop in Tesla's stock. But is the media framing this as purely bearish news to trigger a reaction, or does it present a strategic buying opportunity?
Our Supply and Demand Analysis Perspective:
>On the Weekly chart, Tesla’s price drop landed right in the Weekly Demand Zone, indicating a value area where price is relatively low. This positioning suggests that last week’s news may have actually created an ideal entry point for investors.
>The Daily chart also shows the price hitting a Demand Zone due to the news, making it a potentially opportune time to buy as Tesla continues to achieve milestones in autonomous tech.
What’s Next?:
>Price could consolidate within the Demand Zone, allowing for accumulation, or it might rally right away, responding to demand in this price area.
We’ll also be watching for the price to target opposing gaps and the Supply Zone identified on the chart, which could serve as key levels for future resistance.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Let’s see how this plays out... 👀👀
NASDAQ SHORT TRADE IDEAMarket Makers' Bias:
-Fund Managers are currently holding net selling positions and signaling a bearish divergence on the Weekly price chart.
The last time Fund Managers showed net buying positions with a bullish divergence, the market rallied for an entire week afterward; Now a bearish divergence
Additional Fundamental Bias:
-The Nasdaq appears overvalued relative to U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting that tech stocks within the Nasdaq Index, such as #AAPL, #META, and #GOOG, may be similarly overvalued and likely to experience a downturn.
-We also have Price gaps, they normally act as a magnet to be filled.
Technical Analysis portion:
-We are just hit the weekly covered daily Supply zone, price could be ready for a bearish move now.
-Opposing gap zones and Demand zone can be your potential profit target.
OTHERS:
>Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week
>Long term traders can position for a Sell for next week or position a Long trade at Supply for a retest.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
Let’s see how this plays out... 👀👀
