GBPUSD I FOMC trading plan and levels to watch Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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EURAUD I Potential move higher with Employment Change ReportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel in which the BTC price is moving. Further, we can see that the price bounces in a place just before the EMA Cross 200 line, which indicates the continuation of the long-term uptrend.
Now we can move on to marking support areas in case of deepening correction. And here we first have support at $24868, but when the price goes lower we have very strong support at $24049, then third support at $23361 and fourth support at $22672.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. And here the first significant resistance will appear at the price of $28069, then the second resistance at the price of $29725, the third resistance at the price of $31102, only when the price breaks it will move towards the resistance at $32441.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the next price movements, the MACD indicator indicates a downward trend, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but there is still room for the price to go down to lower levels in the coming days.
Inflation & Geopolitical Context should support Gold in MidtermNonetheless, Q1 2023 gold fundamentals were still interesting and most likely, the Central Banks' interest in gold could continue for much longer. In our view, the current inflationary and geopolitical environment will still support the yellow metal in mid-term, at least for the next 12-24 months.
Gold Demand Trends Q1 2023
(Mixed picture for gold demand in Q1)
Continued momentum in central bank buying and resurgent Chinese consumer demand contrasted with a negative contribution from ETFs and weakness in India. Q1 gold demand (excluding OTC) was 13% lower y/y at 1,081 tonnes (t). Inclusive of OTC, total gold demand strengthened 1% y/y to 1,174t as a recovery in OTC investment – consistent with investor positioning in the futures market – offset weakness in some areas.
Demand from central banks experienced significant growth during the quarter. Official sector institutions remained keen and committed buyers of gold, adding 228t to global reserves.
Bar and coin investment gained 5% y/y to 302t, concealing some large regional variations. In contrast, net negative demand for ETFs, although modest at -29t, generated a hefty y/y decline compared with the sizable inflows seen in Q1’22.
Global jewellery consumption was virtually flat at 478t. Jewellery fabrication exceeded consumption as stock building added just over 30t to global inventories.
Gold use in the technology sector continued to suffer from the challenging economic climate. Demand slumped to 70t – the second lowest quarter in our data series back to 2000.
Modest growth in both mine production (+2%) and recycling (+5%) led to a marginal increase in Q1 total gold supply to 1,174t. The uptick in recycling was largely a function of higher gold prices.
The LBMA Gold Price (PM) averaged US$1,890/oz during the quarter, marginally higher y/y. The price was over 10% higher than the previous quarter’s average, almost matching the Q3’20 record high.
China saw a strong relief rally in the first post-COVID quarter of unfettered consumer spending. The recovering domestic economy and healthy income growth reignited domestic consumption, while the eye-catching gold price performance spurred investment interest.
Indian demand fell sharply as local gold prices applied the brakes . Record high – and volatile – domestic gold prices discouraged both investment and jewellery consumption during the quarter.
Investment dominates the outlook for 2023. We continue to see healthy upside for investment this year, while the picture for fabrication (jewellery and technology) is more muted. Further robust central bank buying is expected, albeit below 2022’s record. Modest growth is likely in both mine production and recycling.
In conclusion , in addition to waiting with confidence for Q2 data, in short term the gold price could be slightly high to increase institutional appetite, but we think that any downward peak will be seen by Central Banks as an interesting opportunity to add value to their reserves. Conversely, but only in the short term, speculators could lighten some positions by taking part in the profits.
Technically speaking , in near term, gold could trigger some bearish consolidation as we have shown in our previous analysis.
(Click & Play on chart below to follow it)
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FTM/USDT 1DInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the FTM chart also on a one-day interval. At the beginning, with the help of yellow lines, we will mark the downtrend channel in which the price is moving at its lower limit.
As we can see the price has fallen below the EMA Cross 200 line, the place where the price falls below this line is a confirmation of going into a strong downtrend, as in this situation.
Now let's move on to marking the support points for the price in a situation where the correction will continue to deepen and we see that the price is in front of a very strong support at $0.26, however, if the support is broken, we can see a drop to the next support at 0, $17.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the first significant resistance is at $0.37, then we have second resistance at $0.42, then there is a strong resistance zone from $0.46 to $0.50.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy is slowly gathering strength, the MACD remains in a downward trend but is close to a trend change, while the RSI has been moving at the lower end of the range for some time, which may indicate the approaching end of the current correction in the coming days.
Daily ETH 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First of all, with the help of yellow lines, we will mark the uptrend channel in which the price is currently moving at its lower border.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the support, and as you can see the first support that is currently holding the price is $1851, then we have a support zone from $1687 to $1555, however when the price drops below this zone we can see a drop around the strong support at 1423 $.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at the price of $1916, from which the price bounced several times, the next resistance is at the price of $2230, and then the third resistance at the price of $2553.
When we turn on the EMA Cross 200, we can see that they indicate an uptrend. The CHOP index indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move. The MACD indicator indicates the transition to a downtrend. On the other hand, the RSI is moving around the middle of the range, which makes it difficult to clearly determine the upcoming price direction.
Follow me: Attention! Gold continues to be bullish today! ! !The closing price of gold yesterday was 1965, and the daily chart formed a saturated Yang line, indicating that the market is still relatively strong. Then in the afternoon, the lowest level on the disk was back to 1961, and it is often difficult for a strong market to fall below this point. If there is an unexpected retracement, then focus on around 1950, which is the 61.8% position of the golden section from 1937-1970.
So the direction of operation : today it is recommended to continue buying above 1960, with a stop loss of 1950~1955. If there is a loss, then step back to 1950 and continue to buy, and the target position continues to look at 1975-1980
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the uptrend line that the price is moving at the moment. Locally, we can mark the downtrend channel with blue lines.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in case of returning to the correction. And here we see that the first support is at $26480 which the price is currently based on, then we have the first strong support at $25261 which held the price in the recent rebound, then the third support at $24023 and then the very strong support at $24023 $22,350.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the fib retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we will mark a very strong resistance zone from $28665 to $29463, only when the price breaks it will we move towards the resistance at $30502, and then when the price breaks it, it will open the way towards the resistance at $33426.
Please note the CHOP index which indicates that there is still a lot of energy for the upcoming moves, the MACD indicator indicates a return to the downtrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, but with room for the price to go a little lower.
GBPUSD I It will be heading downward Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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BNB/USDT 1DInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB chart on a four-hour interval. At the beginning, we will use blue lines to mark the uptrend channel from which the price is currently breaking sideways. Importantly, we are just below the EMA Cross 200, it is important that the price maintains this level and returns above 200 to continue the uptrend.
We will now move on to marking the price support locations and we see that we first have support just below the price at $300.6, but if the price goes lower, we have another support at $284.8, then at $269.2 and another support at $247.4.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently at a very strong resistance zone from $309 to $330, when it manages to break out above this zone, the price will move towards strong resistance at $359.7 and further towards resistance at $398 $.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for the upcoming move, the MACD indicates a trend change to an uptrend, while the RSI has a rebound and is in the lower part of the range, which is important that the rebound on the indicator gives room for new price increases.
5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This WeekThe US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week:
US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “negative watch” rating on the United States when the deal passes or looks likely to pass congress.
The debt ceiling agreement has potentially weakened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, leading to an increase in risk appetite in global markets.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, rose by 4.4% in April compared to the previous year, up from the 4.2% increase observed in March. This development has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June.
Due to the Memorial Day weekend in the US, as well as bank holidays in Europe and the UK, Monday will experience reduced market liquidity. Additionally, institutions are preparing for month-end trading on Wednesday, which could introduce more volatility.
The US payrolls report for May will be released on June 2nd. Recent months have consistently shown better-than-expected job figures. It is anticipated that this week's job numbers will indicate an addition of 180,000 jobs, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A tighter job market will reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with strong wage data also providing support if the actual figures surpass estimates.
BTC/USDT 1daychart Review Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the uptrend line from which the price went down, while we are currently moving in the downtrend channel, for which we used the blue line.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we see that the price is at the support level of $26640, then it is worth marking a strong support zone from $25289 to $23939, however, when we fall below this zone, we can see a drop to around $22028.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the fib retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. We will first mark a strong resistance zone from $29,008 to $29,880 when it is broken, then we have a second support at $31,023 and then a third support at $34,201.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we have a lot of energy, the MACD indicator is on the verge of returning to an uptrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, but it is worth noting that a small upward movement gives a visible movement on the indicator, which in the long run can quickly limit room for price increases.
USOil | New perspective for the week | Follow-up detailOil prices reversed on Thursday and Friday to transition into a choppy situation to the disappointment of buyers as talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling hit an impasse. Market participants were reluctant to have open buy positions into the weekend, on the off chance that an agreement to raise the U.S. government’s debt ceiling is struck over the weekend which could result in a huge gap at the beginning of the incoming week. In this video, we acknowledged the consolidation phase (between 70 and 74 zones) - a range that will be a determinant of price action in the coming week.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Daily BTC 1DChart - LONGTERMHello everyone, I invite you to every Friday review of the BTC chart on a one-day interval. Let's start by marking the main uptrend line with a yellow line, and as we can see, the price remains above it despite the current correction. Next, it is worth marking the local downtrend channel in which we are currently moving.
At this point, it is worth separating the upward movement into two stages and we can see that when we spread the Fib Retracement tool on the first one, we will notice that during the first upward movement, the correction reached the level of 0.618 FIB, which was a very strong support for the price. Now we can move on to the second stage of the current increases, but here we will start by marking the uptrend channel from which the price went down, in such a situation you can often observe the price going down by the height of the trend channel, and as you can see we are approaching this place. Now we will spread the Fib retracement grid from low to high to see what level the price can reach in the current correction. As in stage one, the price is approaching a strong support zone from $ 25342 to $ 23964, however, when the price falls below this zone, the next strong support is at $ 22088.
Now we can move on to checking what resistance the price has to overcome in order to continue the bullish trend. However, we will not mark individual resistances, because in this situation, the price must first break through the very strong resistance zone from $ 28832 to $ 32467, only when the price breaks out and then the zone is positively tested, we will be able to see further increases in the market.
As we can see further, the price, despite the correction, remains above the 200 EMA Cross, which indicates the maintenance of a long-term uptrend.
Index Chop indicates that there is still energy to continue the move, MACD remains in a downtrend, while the RSI is approaching the lower limit of the range, which usually indicates an upcoming trend reversal, but please remember that in the short term the price may go lower to the previously marked zone.
Daily ETH 1DChart - ReviewAs the second chart in today's review, we will check ETH against USDT, also on a single-day timeframe. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the main downtrend line that the price is approaching, previously we managed to exit the first downtrend line. We are currently moving similarly to the example of BTC in the uptrend channel marked with blue lines.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we have the first support at $ 1858, which has held the price for now, then we can mark a strong support zone from $ 1678 to $ 1517, but when the zone is broken, then we have a second zone from $ 1382 up to $ 1168.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at $ 2230, the next resistance at $ 2550, and then the third resistance at $ 3010. Nevertheless, a very important level will be the resistance at the so-called golden point of the Fib retracement at $ 3350.
Please look at the CHOP index which indicates that there is a lot of energy to move. The MACD indicator is on the verge of entering an uptrend. On the other hand, we observed a rebound on the RSI and we currently have an upward movement, with room for further movement.
BTC Dominance ! 1D Review Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current dominance of BTC over the rest of the market. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the sideways trend channel in which we are moving and here you can immediately see that we are in its upper limit, what is more, we are staying above the uptrend line.
Now we will go to check where we have support when BTC starts to lose against the entire market. And here we have the first support at 46.59 %, then the second support at 45.1 %, the third support at 43.9 %, and then the fourth support at 42.7 %. It is worth checking the percentage of BTC dominance, because the lower the value, the more other coins gain.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First we have resistance at 49.2 % which is a very strong resistance and the upper limit of the ongoing sideways channel, when we manage to break it we have second resistance at 50.7 % then third at 52 % and then fourth resistance at 53 %.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that most of the energy has been used, the MACD indicator indicates entering a local downtrend, while the RSI shows a small rebound, but we are still high, which may indicate a deeper correction.
CHFJPY I Trading plan and important considerationsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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USDJPY I Dollar surging over the yen due to BOJ decisionWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Daily BTC 4HChart REVIEWHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the interval of four hours. First of all, we will use the yellow line to mark the uptrend, as we can see that the price has now gone a little below. Next, using the blue lines, we will mark the local downtrend channel in which we are currently moving.
Now we can move on to marking support areas in case the correction starts to deepen further. And here, in the first place, it is worth marking a strong support zone from $ 27566 to $ 26637, however, when we fall below this zone, we can see a drop to around $ 25398, and then a strong drop to around $ 21868.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we have a significant resistance at $ 29672, when we manage to break it, second strong resistance at $ 31385, then third resistance at $ 32747.
Now let's look at the Cross 10 and 30 EMAs which indicate that we are in a local downtrend. At this point, however, it is worth looking at the EMA Cross 50 and 200, we should watch if the yellow EMA Cross 50 line crosses the blue line from above, which could indicate a return to a long-term downtrend.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that a lot of energy has accumulated, the MACD indicator indicates a local uptrend. On the other hand, on the RSI, we can see that we are moving at the lower limit, which gives the chart a local sideways trend and moments of respite.
Where BTC is heading, a test of the current correction.Hello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval and the one-day interval. First, we will use the white line to mark the first uptrend line, and then the second uptrend line, as you can see the price stays above them. We further see that in the current cycle the price is based on the local uptrend line, a similar situation took place in the previous uptrend cycle, until the price went down.
After unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, we can check how strong the correction was and here we see that we have retraced to a strong resistance zone at the so-called Fib golden point of 0.618. Going further, we will develop the Fib Retracement grid on the current growth cycle, thanks to which we can mark the next support spot at the price of $ 26654, while comparing the current cycle to the previous one, we can see a drop around the strong support zone from $ 25252 to $ 23927. When the price breaks through the support zone, the next strong support is at $ 22040.
We will now switch the chart to a one-day interval, which will make it easier for us to identify resistance points that the price will have to face first.
And here we can see that the price has broken through a very strong resistance at 0.786 Fib, however, the attempt to retest the resistance failed and we have entered a correction period, only when price moves back above the resistance level and then positively tests it will we be able to see the resistance attack attempt at a price of $ 32389.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that after using the energy we are in a period of reaccumulation, the MACD indicator indicates entering a local downtrend, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but at this point it must be made clear that there is still room for the price to go down to the previously mentioned levels. It is worth watching the price level in conjunction with the RSI indicator, taking into account the example scenario that the price will go down to the first current support and the RSI will indicate a rebound to or above the lower end of the range, giving us a greater probability of the end of the correction.
Finally, when we turn on the Cross 50 and 200 EMAs, we can clearly see the place of return to the uptrend after a long bear market, moreover, the current correction at this moment does not indicate a threat regarding the possible continuation of the bull market.
Fundamentals & Technical AnalysisHow to apply fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement your technical analysis and trading strategy
Fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends are important tools for traders who want to understand the underlying forces that drive the market. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on the price action and patterns of the market. By combining both approaches, traders can gain a more comprehensive and balanced perspective on the market and improve their trading strategy.
Fundamental analysis of the macroeconomic environment involves studying the economic, political, and social factors that affect the supply and demand of an asset. Some of the most relevant fundamental indicators are:
- Gross domestic product (GDP): This measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country in a given period. It reflects the economic growth and health of a country. A higher GDP indicates a stronger economy and a higher demand for its currency and assets.
- Inflation: This measures the change in the average price level of goods and services over time. It affects the purchasing power of money and the interest rates. A moderate inflation indicates a healthy economy with stable growth. A high inflation indicates an overheated economy with excessive money supply and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Interest rates: This measures the cost of borrowing money. It affects the profitability of investments and the exchange rates. A higher interest rate indicates a tighter monetary policy and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A lower interest rate indicates a looser monetary policy and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
- Trade balance: This measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It reflects the competitiveness and demand for a country's goods and services in the global market. A positive trade balance indicates a trade surplus and a higher demand for its currency and assets. A negative trade balance indicates a trade deficit and a lower demand for its currency and assets.
To complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can use fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to identify the long-term direction and strength of the market, as well as potential opportunities and risks. For example, suppose a trader wants to trade EUR/USD, which is the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar. The trader can use technical analysis to identify the support and resistance levels, trend lines, chart patterns, indicators, and signals on different time frames. The trader can also use fundamental analysis to assess the economic conditions and outlook of both the eurozone and the US, as well as their relative interest rates, inflation rates, trade balances, and other factors that affect their currencies.
Suppose the trader observes that the eurozone has a higher GDP growth rate, lower inflation rate, positive trade balance, and stable interest rate than the US. The trader can infer that the eurozone has a stronger economy than the US, which implies a higher demand for the euro than the US dollar. The trader can also observe that the EUR/USD is in an uptrend on the daily chart, with higher highs and higher lows, supported by a rising moving average. The trader can conclude that the fundamental analysis confirms the technical analysis, which suggests that EUR/USD is likely to continue to rise in the long term.
The trader can then use technical analysis to find an optimal entry point to buy EUR/USD. For example, suppose the trader sees that EUR/USD is retracing from a recent high to test a support level at 1.2000, which coincides with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a rising trend line. The trader can also see that there is bullish divergence between the price and an oscillator indicator such as RSI or MACD, which indicates that the downward momentum is weakening. The trader can decide to buy EUR/USD at 1.2000, with a stop loss below 1.1900 and a target at 1.2200.
By applying fundamental analysis and macroeconomic trends to complement technical analysis and trading strategy, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and enhance their trading performance.
If you are stock trading, you should consider the following fundamental indicators which are all readily available as trends on the TradingView platform:
- ROE (Return on Equity): This indicator measures how effective a company is in generating profits for its shareholders. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the shareholders' equity. A high ROE indicates that the company is using its resources efficiently and creating value for its owners.
- EPS (Earnings Per Share): This indicator measures how much profit a company makes per share of its common stock. It is calculated by dividing the net income by the number of outstanding shares. A high EPS indicates that the company is profitable and can potentially pay dividends or reinvest in its growth.
- DYR (Dividend Yield Ratio): This indicator measures how much dividend a company pays per share of its common stock relative to its earnings. It is calculated by dividing the total dividends by the net income or the dividend per share by the earnings per share. A high DYR indicates that the company is rewarding its shareholders with a steady income stream and has confidence in its future prospects.
- FCF (Free Cash Flow): This indicator measures how much cash a company generates from its operations after deducting capital expenditures. It is calculated by subtracting the capital expenditures from the operating cash flow. A high FCF indicates that the company has enough cash to pay its debts, invest in new projects, or return money to its shareholders.
- PEG (Projected Earnings Growth): This indicator measures how fast a company's earnings are expected to grow in the future relative to its current price. It is calculated by dividing the price-to-earnings ratio by the annual earnings growth rate. A low PEG indicates that the company is undervalued and has strong growth potential.
These fundamental indicators can help traders to identify stocks that are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced based on their financial performance and future prospects. They can also help traders to compare different stocks within the same industry or across different industries and sectors.
Daily BTC 1DChart - LONGTERMHello everyone, I invite you to review the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First of all, using the yellow line, it is worth marking the downtrend that the price has overcome and we are currently moving in the uptrend channel marked with blue lines.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in the event of a correction. And here we see that we have the first support at HKEX:27 ,017, when the price goes lower, the second support is at $24,821, then the third support is at HKEX:23 ,030, and below we have the fourth very strong support at HKEX:21 ,181.
Looking the other way, in a similar way using the FIB Retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we will mark the resistance zone where the price is currently from HKEX:28 ,000 to HKEX:31 ,754, when it manages to break it, the price may encounter resistance at HKEX:35 ,625, then resistance at HKEX:41 ,172 and a fourth resistance at HKEX:48 ,221.
It is worth paying attention to the EMA Cross 50 and 200, as we can see when the yellow line of the EMA Cross 50 crossed the blue lines of the EMA Cross 200 from below, this confirmed the entry into an uptrend after a very long decline.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we still have the energy to continue the move, the MACD indicator indicates a return to the uptrend, while the RSI has touched the upper limit of the range, which may affect the price going sideways or give a small rebound.