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BLK - Strong uptrend is intact with new highs Upward trend, which started from the covid bottom of 2020, continues. The total assets managed by the company reached 11.5 trillion USD, with an annual increase of 2.4 trillion USD. The company increased its quarterly revenues by 15% to $5.197 billion, exceeding expectations of $5.007 billion. Earnings per share for the last quarter were $11.46, above expectations of $10.38. The shares of the company, which announced a net profit of $1.6 billion in this quarter, exceeded the 2021 high level of $970 and reached $990, and its current market cap is $147 billion. The stock, which has a dividend yield of 2%, is trading with a price-earnings ratio of 24.
NYSE:BLKLong
by murat_cal
BlackRock and other funds in cryptoBlackRock has significantly increased its investment in Bitcoin over the past year. This is partly due to strategic partnerships with MicroStrategy and Coinbase. As of April 2024, BlackRock holds 274,462k BTC worth $17 billion in its spot Bitcoin ETF. This amount is more than MicroStrategy, which holds 193k BTC. It is important to note that MicroStrategy was previously the top institutional Bitcoin investor, but now the BlackRock ETF has surpassed it in terms of BTC. In light of the rapid development of financial markets and constant changes in the global economy, funds are attracting particular attention. These financial organizations are not only key players on the global investment scene but also become significant drivers of future narratives and trends. From venture capital to investment banks, funds are actively involved in shaping the direction of markets and industries. They are the ones who vote with their money, determining which ideas and projects will receive funding and in which sectors of the economy we will see the next round of innovation and growth. Therefore, studying the actions and decisions of funds becomes an exciting task for investors and analysts and an essential tool for anticipating future economic and social trends. Funds are legal organizations that raise money for specific developing projects. Their main goal is to profit from investment, which is achieved by receiving a certain percentage of coins with the help of financing rounds from the total number of coins to be issued. In addition, the financing determines the price at which the fund invests in the project and the time of partial or full unlocking of the received coins for the funding in the project. Let's consider the activity indicator of funds and the categories of projects they invested in last year. The activity rate of investment funds in projects is currently high compared to the average monthly activity over the last 12 months. The following categories were the most invested in over the six months: NFT, 25.86%; Data Service, 21.29%; Artificial Intelligence (AI), 20.53%; DEX, 18.25%; and Play to Earn (GameFi), 14.07%. The most active funds over the past year: Monthly investment of funds over the last year: Where the most active investors have invested over the past year: Portfolios of large investors as of 29.04.2024 Please note that these investor portfolios may not fully reflect their assets; they only reflect those that have been identified to date by researching the blockchain and aggregating their cold wallets. Some of the more prominent investors such as Amber Group, DWF Labs, Wintermute, Jump Trading, Cumberland, GSR have a large amount of stablecoins on their cold wallets, indicating their willingness to continue accumulating their own assets during market downturns to build their influence, as well as to continue investing in projects. Pay attention also to companies that have a large amount of Ethereum, they can start exchanging ETH for other currencies using platforms like Uniswap, PancakeSwap, SushiSwap, and so on. An altcoin index indicates that the market is still dominated by Bitcoin. It is worth accumulating altcoins along with large capitals before Bitcoin's dominance starts to fall and the altcoin market blooms in new colors. BlackRock and tokenization BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset managers, is showing significant interest in cryptocurrency, specifically Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization. They have launched the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) to invest in cash, US Treasuries. This fund is represented by the BUIDL token, which is fully backed by these assets and provides returns paid daily via blockchain rails to token holders. As reported by Forbes, the move is part of BlackRock's broader strategy to tokenize $10 trillion of its assets. Ondo Finance, a tokenized real assets (RWA) platform, improved its offerings by using BlackRock's BUIDL fund. Ondo Finance transferred the reserve assets of its US Treasury-backed token OUSG to BlackRock's BUILD. This decision aimed to provide instant settlement of the OUSG token, which was previously backed by the BlackRock iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF, which only traded during traditional market hours. The move to BUIDL allowed for instant settlement on any day. This collaboration between Ondo Finance and BlackRock demonstrates the convergence of traditional finance and cryptocurrencies: institutional players such as BlackRock actively participate in the cryptocurrency and RWA markets. It also highlights the potential for tokenization to improve settlement times and increase accessibility for a wider range of investors. BlackRock is setting an example to some other large investors on how to tokenize their assets through cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. BlackRock has also significantly increased its investment in Bitcoin over the past year. This is partly due to strategic partnerships with MicroStrategy and Coinbase. As of April 2024, BlackRock holds 274462 BTC worth $17 billion in its spot Bitcoin ETF. This amount is more than MicroStrategy, which holds 193k BTC. It is important to note that MicroStrategy was previously the top institutional Bitcoin investor, but now the BlackRock ETF has surpassed it in terms of BTC. BlackRock Strategy BlackRock's bitcoin investment strategy includes partnerships with major players in the cryptocurrency space. For example, in 2023, BlackRock and Coinbase announced a partnership that will give BlackRock's institutional clients direct access to cryptocurrency trading, custody, prime brokerage, and reporting capabilities. The move was a significant step towards institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. BlackRock also has many stablecoins, which shows that it is ready to continue investing in altcoins. We expect a further market decline soon. Using Wintermute as an example, we can see how they are already here and now, preparing for the market decline, transferring their stablecoins to acquire altcoins further whenever possible, and exchanging Ethereum for stablecoins via Uniswap. Conclusion: Big Capital is preparing for a big altcoin fall and is emphasizing investing in RWA, NFT, Data Service, and AI. Large investment funds are preparing to tokenize their assets, and BlackRock, led by Larry Fink, is setting an example for other large investment funds. Following them, other funds are tokenizing their portfolios, but they are already on the paved rails. If you want to see more info on the funds, here's the link, platform.arkhamintelligence.com You can see my portfolio at the link below. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
10
CAMS - A good buy for this yearCAMS Bharat’s largest registrar and transfer agent of mutual funds has given it's highest ever quarterly sales and profit ever which are 269 crs and 86 crs respectively. Also the chart patterns shows a reverse head and shoulder pattern. So we have a stock which is posting it's best ever numbers in its balance sheet which are supported by strong chart patterns. The stock is not at lifetime high also which makes it less riskier for investment purpose. Buy at current levels of 2882 and sell at 3890. The target price is within it's lifetime high. It will give a 35% returns. Hope you like my analysis. Please invest after your own analysis. Do like and follow. Thank you.
NSE:CAMSLong
by ronak16125
Aditya AMC quarterly result tradeAditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd the company of the old and prestigious Birla group has posted its best ever quarterly result with highest sales and net profit. The quarterly has profit has increased to 209 crore and its growth is supported by the accelerated growth of whole mutual fund industry. The target price is 700 for about 47% potential gain It is a high potential company because of the following factors- Return on capital employed >30 Debt to equity <0.1 Net profit preceding 12months >500 Net Profit latest quarter >100 Please do your own analysis before investing or trading. Thank you and do like and follow if you like my analysis.
NSE:ABSLAMCLong
by ronak16125
S&P500: Moving to the DowOverview I decided it was time to start taking control of my own retirement account. For years my account has been pulling in mediocre gains and the only reason I've put up with it for so long is because: 1) it took me years to hone my trading skills and 2) my employer matches my contributions. Well, after reviewing my available fund allocations and performing a quick technical analysis of the respective funds, I decided to pull completely out of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ) and placed them into the Dow Jones ( DJ:DJI ). Technical Analysis SP:SPX A double top has appeared on the 1W chart. Combined with dwindling volume on top of increasing value, I think it's ready to fall. Utilizing Fibonacci retracements I believe a good time to re-enter the S&P 500 will be in the range of $2200-$3200 USD. DJ:DJI While it is still slightly early to confirm, it appears that the Dow Jones has escaped the double-top and in my opinion looks coiled up and ready to spring. Utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels -- supported by increasing volume with rising value -- $56.8K appears to be a practical price target.
SP:SPXShort
by Shepherd_Investor
CAMS- 74% potential gain and moreAs mutual fund industry is growing in our country and Reliance also entering the segment companies like CAMS are a good investment. SOME IMPORTANT POINTS because it should be bought: - 1) The company is trading at 42% lower price than its lifetime high. 2) Potential gain of 74% till lifetime high. 3) It has a low P/E ratio in comparison to its competitors. 4) It has consistently increased its revenue and net profit every year from the last decade. 5) Company has been maintaining healthy ROCE of 62.32% over the past 3 years. 6) Campany is virtually debt free. The company will probably beat its previous lifetime high and make a new one in the near future. It may give manifold returns in 5-10 years. Thank you for reading it till the last. Hope it was an effective read.
NSE:CAMSLong
by ronak16125
1
NAM_INDIA excellent buy for long termNAM_INDIA is the largest player in asset management services in Bharat. The current level of the stock is a strong resistance. If broken it will give good returns in both short term and long term as mutual fund industry is growing at bullet speed in India. Some important points, it should be bought now are:- 1) Current PE ratio is 23.4 while lifetime median PE ratio is 27.8. 2) Last two years net profit of the company was highest ever. 3) Company is almost debt free. 4) Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 3.57%. 4) Promoter holding is strong 73.6% which means they believe in the growth potential of the company. 5) The company is present in 16 Indices. 6) Company has a healthy Return on Equity (ROE) track record of 22.93%.
NSE:NAM_INDIALong
by ronak16125
1
Stop Trading the Fed Funds RateThe fed usually hikes into growth and eases when it realizes the economy is too weak to absorb the impact of the hikes, so historically stocks usually rise as the hiking begins and crashes when the fed takes their foot off the pedal. This time the fed is late. They hike as the housing market is brought to its knees and the economy is slowing. Equities are down, but this is not due to recession expectations. The bond market has reacted to rate hikes, bond yields rise, the discount rate affects the equity market by eating away at their earnings targets. The higher the yield is, the more your company has to make than that in growth to give incentive to invest in it over just holding fixed income. Rate hikes have many systemic effects like this that increase the cost of credit and directly impact the equity market. If you're holding risk assets you're better off with the Fed holding the line with the hikes in the short term. In the longer term we are screwed no matter what levers the fed pulls. Monetary magic can not save the economy now. Easing or slowing the hikes (which isn't my prediction, but a market's hope) would be a signal to another group of market participants that we haven't seen sell anything yet who are trading based off of what easing signals. So far equities have only reacted to changes in the discount rate. They have not started pricing in a recession and current price action is a bet on temporary economic contraction with no hard landing. Three different recession, three different initial conditions, same market behavior: The probability of a soft landing is zero percent. The mystery of this market isn't the direction it's how low it's actually going to go. The more funny retail money enters this market, the higher the chance we could see unprecedented drawdowns far worse than anyone so far has expected. Everyone in retail, their aunt, uncle, grandma, and dog, is trading speculatively based off the fed funds rate. They believe that a change in the pace of hikes or basis point increases will breathe life into the economy. They have not traded a market like this before. If you think the economy can recover without a crash, park into cash and sit this one out. Stop listening to these talking heads in mainstream media telling you everything will be ok. You are the customer and the product holding up their portfolio as they exit leaving you holding the bag.
AMEX:SPYShort
by coinhoIio
2
Nifty's negative breakdownNifty 50 today has Breakdown 50 DEMA. And also closed than 50 DEMA. i.e., 31.49 points lower. (Point B) On 16th September 2022 itself Nifty 50 has Breakdown from its previous trend (point A). Today its breakdown from 50 DEMA shown that market is moving downwards. Looking into previous strong supports two levels can be recognized 1. Around 16800. (200 DEMA) 2. 16000. psychological level. Apart from those two. Another bearish level is 14800 (But for that too much negativity must prevail in overall environment). Both the levels of NIFTY 50 are good to accumulate for index fund , till then stay with cash.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by nimish3274
SPX Vs FEDFUNDS - NOT BEAR MARKET YETAs you can see on the chart - everytime the FedFunds have topped and consolidated - stocks topped aswell and started its own bear market. Now, what we think is a top on SPX, may have been just a strong push which was later strongly corrected. FedFunds haven't yet topped out and entered into consolidation here - although it is really near. Based on that - highly likely to still see wonders before really declining. Summary - Market knows what's coming and have reacted overly bearish. Once it gets exhausted with the bearishness, it may retest aths or even set new ones before entering the real bear market leading to recession and depression. Stay safe !
SP:SPXLong
by TheSecretsOfTrading
BTCUSDTAccording to the previous analysis, Bitcoin is pulling back to the midline of the ascending channel in the range of 21500 to 21700 after breaking its main support areas, and on the other hand, it is facing the middle resistances of the fork and the 1-hour trend line, and since it has been able to more than from 50% of the previous rising wave, it is more likely to continue the downward trend to the bottom of the channel around the psychological range of 20000, which is symmetrical with the main middle line of the fork, but considering the return from the 0.618 Fibonacci level, if it crosses the 21700 resistance range Its main level is 23,000, and upon its failure, the confirmation of the start of the upward rally up to the range of 28,400 is issued. Today, the main economic data is the announcement of the interest rate increase for the fifth time in 2022, which increases or decreases the rate 8 times a year. According to most experts, this rate increase will be 0.75% and will bring the interest rate to 2.5%, and as it is clear in the interest rate graph, 2.5 is the interest rate ceiling in 2019, but if the Federal Reserve Like the European Union, there is a surprise on the way and it increases the interest rate by 1%, this resistance has been broken and it can grow up to the previous ceiling of 5% that happened in 2006-2007 (that is, technically at this level? 😁) On the other hand, yesterday's economic data, which was the index of consumer confidence and the sale of newly built houses, was significantly lower than the previous period and the expectations of experts (it should be noted that Mr. Biden, who these days has improved the good behavior of the locksmith 😜), it was announced that this data shows a decrease There is a strong demand in the market, and this can be the factor influencing the further increase of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, because the main determining factors in the American economy are data, not leadership and oversight, and the Federal Reserve and the government operate independently. With these words, in general, it is more likely that the market will continue to fall, although we are in the most difficult market conditions and new data can affect the market conditions at any moment.
Short
by MrHunterTradeInsight
3
🔥 Bitcoin & The Federal Funds Rate: An Easy ExplanationEver since the FED has been talking about interest rates, I see questions popping up on social media where investors ask why the federal funds rate (also known as the FED interest rate) is so important for the stock and crypto markets. With this post I'd like to write an easy understandable explanation on what the FED funds rate is and why it is important. What is the FED funds rate? The FED funds rate is the interest rate set by the FOMC (the committee of the FED). This interest rate targets the rate at which commercial banks in the USA can lend and borrow excess money to each other. Higher rates means it's more expensive to borrow money for banks, lower rates make it cheaper. Why is it so important? The FOMC changes the rate in order to control inflation. Higher rates reduce the money supply because money is more expensive to get (borrow), whilst lower rates increase the money supply because it encourages spending. The latter has happened during the 2008 Financial crisis and the more recent Corona crisis. Encouraging people to spend money generally helps the economy. Rule of thumb: if the economy is in good shape, higher interest rates are needed to control inflation. If the economy is in bad shape, lower interest rates will encourage people to spend and can help turn things around. Should I be afraid of it? Generally, no. As seen on the BTC chart above, the only time that the FED has increased the rates it did not have a bearish effect on BTC. However, this was done during a period of lower inflation than we currently have. To combat the current inflation rates, the FED needs to increase the rate at a much faster and higher rate than what we have seen in the past 30 years. During the 1980's the interest rate was set to 20% in order to combat strong inflation, I'd argue the FED has to do that as well if they don't raise the raids much faster this year. The imposed rate hikes of 0.25% every meeting are not enough to reduce the 10% year-over-year inflation. In case the FED decides to raise the rates with big steps (>1% per meeting), this can definitely have a huge impact on the stock- and crypto-markets. It will become much more expensive for banks to borrow (and invest) money since money will become more scarce. There's no immediate danger for the markets. However, if inflation spirals out of control because the FED decides not to act (keep the rates low), they'd have to increase the rates much higher and quicker than everyone anticipates, which will trigger a big sell-off in the markets. In my view, this will be the start of the next crypto bear-market. The FED interest rates are most definitely an interesting, but also difficult topic. If you think that I've skipped an important part, please share your knowledge in the comment section. The more people know about it, the better.
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
88
China’s Bitcoin Crackdown China’s Supreme Court has issued a ruling that specifies penalties for offenders who use cryptocurrency to raise funds. Penalties range up to 10 years in prison and fines of up to 500,000 yuan ($79,000). China’s years-long crackdown on cryptocurrency has stepped up another level, thanks to a new Supreme Court ruling that paves the way for fines and potentially lengthy jail sentences for citizens found guilty of fundraising via crypto tokens. Released earlier today, the Supreme Court’s decision specifies that “virtual currency” transactions used for raising funds can be prosecuted, with varying penalties available depending on the amount of money raised via the transactions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rentooipili
AMC - Wild Child within Compressing Micros, Larger Range Friday's Price action was immaterial. Call chasers were rewarded off the 39s. The winners there took $10 - the "winners" were the same Funds of Size gaming the theaters. Apes who took their gains were in large Profit. Late chasers the follow-ons... who bought 50s, 45s... were smoked. The Jungle has a few days to close out the 48 and then 52 level. Memes abound, BTC acceptance... the entire Float churn... Triple digits.... Dangerous Herd behavior imho, set SELLs at levels, wait an see. A bankrupt Company traded through an insolvent Micro-Broker should end in an extreme decline in the near future. AMC has traded, consistently traded, inverse to the NQ. How much longer until this fails... anyone's WAG. Apes are growing in constitution in the belief/faith/hopes of a triple digit price level on MOASS. We shall see... we'll take the MoreASS opposing trade at the levels indicated - 48 - 52 Sells with the stop @ 57.12. Gamers return with more Call buying this week, how hard the Jungle can move it depends on the reaction @ 41.96. We'd like to see the Apes take their win, the issue is 95% always lose on these types of moves. Small investors getting damaged removes Liquidity... not something we ever want to have happen. It will again. -HK
NYSE:AMC
by HK_L61
6
The financial world different market participantsHolding periods are at record lows and people are whining about it. Time to talk a bit about who participates in the market. 1- Liquidity ********************************** Something like half of the trading volume is done by specialists & HFT firms as well as a couple of scalpers which is a name for retail traders that hold for a few minutes to gracefully provide liquidity to real traders. It is not something "shocking", investing requires market makers as intermediaries and an exchange or at least reputable liquidity providers (banks, I said reputable not honest) as well as some rules, and derivatives trading has had this - or most of it - since at least 1750 BC. Yes, HFT are pigs and have no shame front running big funds or sniping day traders which is a name for another group of retail traders, but back in the "floor" days they did just the same, today everything is electronic and smooth, costs have gone down, reactions are better etc. Algos have caused big crashes, so let's hope man does not lose control and we do not end up screwing the markets that we need with technology. 1 issue with HFT is they are undercapitalized, the head of global markets research at Goldman Sachs says they are less capitalized than just 1 major bank. This causes them to aggressively adjust their bids when the market price drops. Back in 1987 human specialists had to beg their banks to give them more money to buy during the crash or the entire world would collapse. You should be able to easilly find an interview of Tom Sosnoff about it. I wonder what would happen if this happened today... The FED in hindsight would print infinite money and give it to hft? The players in this categories are various market makers that we call HFT, as well as to a much lesser degree a few retail traders called scalpers and front running algos. 2- Intraday ********************************** This, if my sources are correct, represents another 30% or close to 30% of stock volume. This had a boom in the 80s and 90s, and again recently with crypto and now tech stocks. Most of the people behind this are brokers that spend alot of money to acquire new clients. "Educators" or "influencers" that refer new suckers to brokers get paid up to hundreds of dollars per client (I should have just done this rather than tryhard). The amount of quant funds infesting the market AND the success they have is directly correlated to how much retail traders (especially day traders) are around and also how much money these day traders are losing. You could say they are all day traders but this should be divided in 2 groups: the technical "day traders" which are all retail, and the professional "quants" that abuse day traders. The biggest quants that made big money are Jim Simons & George Soros quants from the 80s and 90s as I said technical analysis and day trading were very popular. Might have wanted to keep that for myself idk. Bah no one cares. 2 major groups: Day traders & quants. Also much more rare penny stock pump and dumps can be included. 3- Short term participants (days to weeks) ********************************** Once again, alot of the money being extracted here comes from retail investors using random strategies called technical analysis. > Pre rolls. One group of participants that exploit flaws on very small timeframes (days) are all the pre-roll strategy investors. They exploit commodity ETFS that all lose money over time and have to sell their 1! positions at fixed times to then buy on 2! These funds regularly blow up, and lately the Oil fund USO was in the news because it became so big the regulators made it diversify its oil position, what got it so big is a very big supply of dumb money getting all excited at very low Oil prices thinking it was free money (below $20 then below $10 then even negative). Professionals that use these strategies made hundreds of millions from both dumb ETF "investors" as well as retail swing and day traders that jumped at the opportunity to get ran over. Alot of these profits/losses are actually being covered by Interactive Brokers of which dumb clients turned a few hundred thousands into decamillion losses. And they are a prime broker with a barrier to entry (2 years verified experience and $10000 in capital). As usual regulators, after alot of dumb money got hit hard, started an "investigation". USO suckers lost tens of millions months ago, the profit has been taken that's it, but they do not know it yet. According to Robintrack, most retail investors 6 months later are still bagholding what was supposed to be a quick swing trade. Pre-roll traders will sell on 1! before the ETF sells and also buy on 2! before they buy, and sell after the big operation moved the price. In the case of the huge Oil crash, fund traders bought before the price collapse and ended up buying back from idiots that "bought cheap". They made money not by "crashing the price", they made money by holding their winners while dumb money was underwater. This dumb money is actually fortunate that there were short sellers to buy from them so close to expiry. I am not sure regulators with their "investigations" understand this simple concept. From the website etfdailynews: “I make a living off the dumb money,” says Emil van Essen, founder of an eponymous commodity trading company in Chicago. Van Essen developed software that predicts and profits from pre-rolling. “These index funds get eaten alive by people like me,” he says. Quick! Investigations! "The trading house is now the focus of investigations by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic, Bloomberg reported." markets.businessinsider.com Stupid morons. And there's never investigations when "stonk price go up" or when dumb money gets lucky (making them confident and about to lose big). Remember Wirecard... No investigation here. Gee it really blows my mind just imagining the incredibly mind-bogglingly moronic less-than-human mouth breathers that come up with these "investigations". Can't wait for Bitcoin & Tesla investigations. > Trend Followers. "The trend is your friend". "Just follow the trend this is what good boys & girls do". Did trend following get to people heads. It was very popular in the 80s & 90s. Some famous trend followers made gigantic returns exploiting dumb money (not sure all of them knew it). Trend following was the holy grail at the end of this period and even to today (people have slow brains or something), but it has not - or barely - worked for the last 20 years (all of this is about to change imo thought). Today the holy grail is index passive investing , who is making this possible are central banks, and the suckers are honest hard working americans that lose purchasing power while passive investors get fatter. One of the most famous trend followers is Richard Dennis, which in the 70s to 80s turned $1600 into $200 million, in about 10 years. I doubt he had a clue what he was doing and I think it was both lucky timing and lucky with randomly using the right strategy. After making big gains he was really excited and thought every one could make money with no brain (money grows on trees as we all know). "Wow making money is really easy". Typical Dunning-Kruger, except his peak of mount stupid lasted way longer than for other people. He got rekt in the late 80s, got back in his feet and made some profit in the 90s but much less (and never thought of trying to learn something new). Then after the 2000 bubble exploded he just lost money and disappeared. He is probably selling courses now. The sort of general way it all comes together over a period of a few months or years with medium term funds, trend followers & quants versus dumb money: Here is an example from investopedia with sugar: Those are big returns in just about 3 months. A quote from a quant website. "CTAs by being patient trend-followers took advantage of the random methods of chart traders and profited at their expense. Some that are new to trading are not aware of the frenzy in the 90s about intraday trading mainly financed by brokers. Systematic traders took advantage of it and made large returns. But after the random intraday and swing traders were driven out of the market, CTAs have had problems generating returns. There is scarcity of retail dumb money at this point." The 80s & 90s were the period where George Soros and Jim Rogers made monster gains in commodities too. George Soros kept making big profits after that period, Jim Rogers has not. Since 2000 trend followers have been suffering. I got into trend following a few months ago it is going all right. It is making a comeback imo, but I do not think it will last long. It might, we will see. I trust myself to be able to adapt. When this stops working I also have my strategy I have been exploiting for years. If both stop working (unlucky) gee well I'll adapt, SOMETHING ought to be working. I'll survive. I mostly do what I do with Forex thought and it is a different world. If trend following does not work just go for reversals 🤦‍♂️ It's so lame to get famous and get the glory but you were actually bad and you end up losing and have no clue why and just end up selling books and trading courses 😂 So on the short term we got retail swing traders that use random strategies, fomo gamblers, and the systematic trend followers & pre-roll people that abuse them. Also hedgers, and a couple of short term hedge funds that probably do not make money on average. 4- The medium term : Around 1 year ********************************** I heard hedge & mutual funds had median holding periods of 9 to 12 months, I also heard they had holding periods of 17 months. I will assume this is not counting the losers, especially if they have a low winrate, that would mean a TF much below the reality. Retail is completely absent here. There are various strategies. "Strategic" stock picking. Bull bias, bear bias (on the market in general, so they are looking for stocks to buy, or to sell). "Short sellers" (Enron, Tesla, ...). Hedge funds also exploit random day & swing traders and made big profits in the 80s and 90s then last 20 years as retail investing declined have made less, but hedge funds did not go from 100 to 0, it is more tame than trend followers. Recently some hedge funds have struck gold. Bill Ackman made 100R ($2.6 Billion) when the S&P crashed after coronavirus lockdowns. He made big money with price go down, so of course really dumb people cried and accused him of dricing down the price during a CNBC interview ("spreading FUD") probably soon investigation and bla bla bla. Where are all the investigations when some clown says that Tesla is a revolution and going up 1000 fold? Where are the investigation in Max Keiser saying silver and later bitcoin would rule the world? "Oh no no need for investigation when price go up 🤤" 5- The long term: 10, 20, 30 years ********************************** 2 categories: - Private high net worth. Value investors like Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, even thought they run a company, an example of a private investor is Phil Town which has a youtube channel and writes book he is not very famous but ye that's a private investor why would they be famous? Should they take a megaphone and shout their net worth on the top of buildings? - Bagholders: Can either be retail investors that thought "Buy & Hold" meant "Buy garbage & Forget", I doubt they are aware 96% of US stocks go to zero, well 100% on a long enough horizon but we are looking at less than 3 decades here. Or can be day & swing traders that bought something stupid (USO, Bitcoin...) and refuse to cut their losses so they turn their gambles into long term bagholds. Bill Ackman is a famous bagholder, when he is wrong he is SO WRONG and he just keeps on holding his bags all the way to zero which is really crazy. Warren Buffett early in his carreer has been on rare occasion been a bagholder, what he calls his worse mistake cost him according to himself at least 100 billion, he just kept trying to get that textile company to be worth something. The company Warren Buffett bagheld is called Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett actually rarely holds for more than 2 years, and half of his purchases are sold under 1 year. He has a 100% turnover! From the paper linked below, "we observe a median holding period of a year, with approximately 20% of stocks held for more than two years. At the other end of the spectrum, approximately 30% of stocks are sold within six months." papers.ssrn.com So he loses (or breaks even sometimes perhaps) 80% of the time. But when he wins... you know... 150R. Important: if I got this (didn't read the whole thing) they only looked at what was in his quarterly fillings! Who knows what grandpa B bought and sold within weeks! It is very hard to find what stocks Warren Buffett quickly exited without going over quaterly reports, every one touches themselves at his returns, wants to know what he holds to copy, looks at winners which is almost useless but out of tens of millions of die hard fans it's like not a single one gives a damn about looking at his cut losses, due to low IQ. It is truly mind boggling that over 90% of retail investors just transformed LOOK FOR GREAT COMPANIES AT GOOD PRICES, BUY AND HOLD WINNERS, into "Never surrender never give up just buy absolute garbage down 90%, buy and forget, hold the bag to zero over the long term it will eventually go up". You could literally tell them exactly what to do they'd end up losing all of their money and dying of food poisonning somehow because they are handicapped. Buffett holds for 7.5 year on average (or he did in 2010), with 80% of stocks held for less than 2 years, and 20% held for more with a couple held for several decades. He ain't holding for 50 years or a century. 6- The very long term ********************************** Big pension funds, insurance funds, sovereign wealth funds, mega bagholders (owners of ponzi shares held those to their death dreaming they would magically regain value)... The big, big, BIG boys. They do very little volume in markets because they rarely participate, but when they do they move entire markets. They move alot of money at once, and while random retail traders & quants do big volume day after day, they mostly cancel each other out. The over 1 trillion dollar "NOK" fund owns 1.5% of world shares, and when they do something you can feel it. Socialism (they are not really socialist but whatever) works really well when you have immense wealth. Over 1 trillion for 5 million inhabitants. They hold 2.6% of EU stocks and "only" 1% of american stocks. There is talk that they may sell EU stocks to buy NA holdings, mostly USA obviously. "Norway wealth fund may move $50 billion into U.S. stocks from Europe" www.investing.com That would really help push the price up and help jump start a bubble. 50 billion is just a small adjustment for them. "The central bank has said its advice was not based on any particular view on future return in individual markets or regions." They don't really care. They are trying to preserve the country wealth and are just doing small adjustment ("small"). They hold forever. "The minority centre-right cabinet of Prime Minister Erna Solberg must seek approval from parliament for any major strategic shifts at the fund, a process that could take months to complete and which may involve making compromises." No day trading here... I am old why am I focussing on Norway... Those are the current biggest wealth funds (made of 1 or more funds for the country) in the world: China 2,250,000 million usd - Origin: their bags come from sending free goods to fat americans. They believe they will get something in return. UAE 1,350,000 million usd - Origin: Oil & Gas. Hehehe a few months ago I remember an idiot telling me arab countries were poor 3rd world countries. Norway 1,100,000 million usd - Origin: Oil from the sea. Crossed 10 trillion NOK recently I think. Their children have their future covered. Saudis 900,000 million usd - Origin: Oil from the sand. During an interview the wealth manager Yasir Al-Rumayyan said he wanted to grow it to 2 trillion. Future gambles to take advantage of? Those were the big famous ones. Then you got Singapore, more arab countries... The USA have a (LOL!) 200 billion wealth fund (and 30 trillion liabilities). Talk about a pyramid scheme. If you look at the biggest fund from any source by AUM who do you have at the top? 1- FED - 7,000,000 million usd (but really you can just put an infinite sign here) 2- BOJ - 5,200,000 million usd bigger than the US one relative to population what a scam 3- PBC - 5,150,000 million usd biggest baghodlers in the world (I'm just kidding don't cry China) Then you got plenty of multi trillion US state owned funds (sounds pretty communist to me, I wonder why they are pushing the price up at the people's expense), Japanese megacorps & banks, China communist groups/banks, European banks. Some middle east holders of course. And then a grand total of 0 african country is present in the top 100. Banks really dominate the world. They hold all the capital. It would be a real shame for passive investors & tiktok robinhood holders if the US communist funds that hold over $10 trillion were to liquidate their assets to cover the US foreign liabilities (China) and to pay for social programs wouldn't it? A reaaaal shame 🙃 What is this? I am feeling tingles. Team Biden! It's just a shame they have all these toxic ultra racist, anti business & anti family views. Quick! someone tell the clueless socialist woke crew the US are holding trillions that could more than cover their student debts and social programs! Special mention: Blackrock is the world largest asset manager overseeing more than 7 trillion. And they work hand in hand with the FED.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev