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GOLD spikes on geopolitics, not enough for new bull runIn the early trading session this morning (May 21), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly skyrocketed in the short term, surpassing the $3,300/ounce mark for the first time since May 9. In addition, the price of WTI crude oil also skyrocketed, at one point increasing by 3%. US media reported that US intelligence agencies had detected that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. After the price increase on the previous trading day, the gold price continued to skyrocket to $3,304.18/ounce in the early trading session on Wednesday in Asia. Because gold is considered a safe asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, new signs of geopolitical instability once again supported the increase in gold prices. CNN reported Tuesday local time that several US officials told CNN that new information obtained by the US shows that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities even as the Trump administration seeks a diplomatic deal with Tehran. Such an attack would be a clear break with President Donald Trump, U.S. officials said. It could also spark a broader conflict in the Middle East, something the United States has tried to avoid since the 2023 Gaza war ratcheted up tensions. The growing concern stems not only from messages from senior Israeli officials, both public and private, that Israel is considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military activity that could indicate an Israeli strike is imminent, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence said. Geopolitical factors also played a role in pushing gold higher, as the failure to reach a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East could prompt investors to hold onto gold. The dollar weakened on Tuesday after Moody's downgraded the United States' top triple-A credit rating. Fed officials were also cautious about the economic outlook, hurt by the downgrade. A weaker US dollar means gold becomes more attractive. Analysis of the technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold surged to a technical confluence of key resistance formed by the location of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement and the 21-day EMA. At this point, gold has not completely broken out of the price action around the $3,300 base point. If gold breaks above and sustains above the $3,300 base point, it will be in a position to continue to rise with a target of around $3,371 in the short term. On the other hand, a sell-off below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement would open the door for a retest of the $3,250 technical level followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the active position is not yet in line for a new bullish cycle. Therefore, the technical outlook for gold for the day is a retest of $3,250 in the short term, followed by $3,228. The notable positions for intraday downside correction expectations are listed below. Support: $3,250 – $3,228 Resistance: $3,331 – $3,345 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3356 - 3354⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3360 →Take Profit 1 3348 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3342 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3270 - 3272⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3266 →Take Profit 1 3278 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3284
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Positive market, GOLD drops to 3,220 USD in short termOANDA:XAUUSD fell to $3,220/oz, down 0.61% on the day at press time, resuming a bearish trend and cooling demand for safe-haven assets. US President Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Trump saying Russia wants to reach a major trade deal with the United States and will immediately begin ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine. Ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, central bank officials remained on the sidelines, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the summer very low. Trump said Russia wants to make a “big” trade deal with the United States. Trump posted on his Truth Social account that he spoke with Putin on Monday to discuss the deal. “I just had a two hour phone call with Putin and I think it went very well.” Trump said he discussed a number of issues with Putin, primarily the ceasefire agreement between Putin and Ukraine. “Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin negotiations to achieve a ceasefire and, more importantly, an end to the war,” Trump wrote. “Both sides will negotiate the terms of this agreement, which is only possible because they have details of the negotiations that others do not. The tone and atmosphere of the talks were very good.” After announcing the ceasefire, Trump also wrote that Putin was looking for a trade deal with the United States. “Russia wants to engage in massive trade with the United States after this disastrous ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree. Russia has a tremendous opportunity to create many jobs and wealth. The potential is limitless.” Trump also said that Ukraine could also benefit from a potential trade deal with the United States. He even added that the Vatican, represented by the new pope, would be willing to hold trade/ceasefire talks. Recent cooperative initiatives between Putin and Trump, including the US President receiving a painting from Putin, have raised questions about how the US-Russia axis will affect trade dynamics between the two countries. The two countries have maintained active communication since Trump took office in January. Given the current global tensions, a new US-Russia trade deal would be a significant step forward. Trump discussed peace in Ukraine with Putin on Monday after the US said it may have to pull out of a stalemate over ending Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Looking ahead, markets are focused on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with traders now betting that the chances of a rate cut in the summer are extremely low. The more positive news the market gets, the more pressure gold will face as cooling safe-haven demand will send investors looking for riskier assets. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD As noted to readers in previous publications since gold was sold below EMA21, up to now, it still has a short-term technical trend leaning towards the downside. Specifically, gold has repeatedly failed to overcome the resistance level of 3,250 USD and has decreased in price every time it approaches this level. And in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for momentum to decline ahead. For gold to be in a position to enter a new bullish cycle, the most important condition is that it needs to break above the $3,300 base level then target around $3,371 in the short term. On the other hand, once gold breaks below the $3,200 support point it could continue to decline with the target then around the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement in the short term. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 – $3,120 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3224⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3230 →Take Profit 1 3218 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3212 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3150 - 3152⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3146 →Take Profit 1 3158 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3164
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
Weak USD and renewed safe-haven demand support GOLD surgeOANDA:XAUUSD surged to a one-week high. A weak US dollar and safe-haven demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty boosted gold prices. Gold prices rose and held above $3,300 an ounce as traders grew increasingly concerned about the US tax reform vote and escalating tensions in the Middle East. In addition, Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the depreciation of the US dollar also boosted safe-haven demand for gold. CNN reported Tuesday, citing multiple sources, that the latest intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to launch airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, even as negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over the country's uranium enrichment program continue. Axios, a prominent U.S. news website, reported Wednesday local time that two Israeli sources with knowledge of the negotiations told Axios that Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if negotiations between the United States and Iran fall apart. Israeli intelligence has shifted in recent days from believing a nuclear deal was imminent to believing that talks could soon collapse, sources said. Gold, considered a safe investment amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 an ounce last month. US stocks plunged on Wednesday and US Treasury yields jumped as investors focused on congressional debate over President Trump’s proposed tax reform, raising concerns that the country’s massive debt will continue to rise. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After gold broke the technical confluence of the 21-day moving average (EMA21) with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, it has qualified for further upside to the next target expected at $3,371, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Looking ahead, in the short term, gold has qualified for a new bullish cycle with the nearest support at the raw price point of $3,300 followed by $3,292. A bullish breakout of $3,371 would open the door to a new target at the raw price point of $3,400 in the short term, followed by $3,435. As noted to readers throughout the publications since the beginning of the year, the trend of gold prices is fixed by the rising price channel, corrections can still take place negatively but the trend has not changed. "In fact, I have also encountered many failures when the market fluctuated too much recently, causing me to not believe in the rising price structure at times." Trading is not just about fundamentals or technicals, it depends more on trading psychology. With the current market, experienced traders will still often encounter psychological problems, such as me, who is writing this article to you. Finally, the short-term uptrend of gold prices in the main uptrend will be noted by the following notable levels. Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,435 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3265 - 3267⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3261 →Take Profit 1 3273 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3279
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-05-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Quick stuff. Daily new ath means bulls are doing more than bears so don’t look for shorts. Today’s selling was a start but we need a clean lower high before one can look for decent short setups. I think anything above 24300 would make me physically sick. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23000 - 24300 bull case: Sideways above 24000 is peak bullishness and as long as we stay above 23750, bulls are fine. Below we test down to the bull trend line which is not far below that and only below 23400 things are getting more spicy for bulls. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: I will spend more time in this section once we have a daily close below 23400. Before that, it’s most likely a pullback that bulls will buy. Odds are heavily against bears so don’t make your life tough. Long term shorts if you can hold through 24500 or higher are fine. Next 10-20% will be made to the downside, zero doubt about it. Only matter is timing. Invalidation is above 24300. short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs. Nothing changed. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap below yesterday’s low was amazing and so was short 24200. Both buying and selling pressure were so great that market did not run stops above or below the extremes.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-05-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears get nothing going. Everything is bought. Do not look for shorts unless you can scalp really well. We have room for 1 more day of chop but ultimately I think we will print 22000, like sp500 wants the 6000+. Bull channel is valid until broken, so look for longs. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and we are high enough, that they could easily get it. As long as we stay above 21200, the bull channel is alive and well and we are making higher highs and higher lows. Don’t need to write more for bulls because they have all the arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears can only join the chat again, once we have a daily close below 21000. This channel upwards is tight. Do not look for shorts. Invalidation is above 21200ish but real confirmation is only below 21000. short term: Neutral for another day but when the breakout happens, obviously bullish for 22000 and maybe some more. We have room for one more chop day. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year. trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. 21400 - 21460 was the main range and both sides made money today. Only real bad trade was shorting below 21400 or buying the Globex high.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2025-05-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls finally got their retest and a higher high. Now is decision time. Can we do another leg up or is this a bull trap and we finally reverse for a deeper pullback over the next days? I heavily favor the latter but for now bears are nowhere to be seen and until then, looking for shorts is suicide. 24300 could be the potential next target if we continue in the bull channel on the 1h chart. current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 23000 - 24300 bull case: Bulls got 24000 and we are in a perfect channel upwards. Trade it until broken. I will only scalp this and if we break above this channel or go beyond 24300, it will be without me. Invalidation is below 23300. bear case: I see the odds of this becoming a late bull trap greater than another leg up but so far, bears are doing nothing, so do not look for shorts. Only below 23700 is the current channel broken and we test 23600 next. Below that, 23400 would be next but we closed at the highs and thinking about anything below 23700 is senseless for now. Invalidation is above 24130. short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp. trade of the day: Buying Friday’s low at 23788 and hold at least for gap close. The move up was strong enough to continue to hold and market has printed 6 consecutive 1h bull bars.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Gold - Follow The Macro Trend!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 GOLD has been overall bullish from a macro perspective trading within the rising wedge pattern in orange. After rejecting the $3,500 round number and upper bound of the wedge, XAUUSD signaled the start of the correction phase as marked by the red falling channel. Moreover, the $3,100 - $3,150 zone is a strong support. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower orange trendline acting non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #XAUUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
16
ES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) - Support Trendline Price Test -DailyES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) price is currently testing a support trendline around $5900. If several daily Price candles close below $5865 this month, a pullback in the price can occur (rising wedge pattern). Volume has been decreasing in May 2025, compared to March and April. Finance and Technology corporate earnings season has passed. The U.S. government 90-day tariff pause is set to expire in early July (pending trade deal negotiations with other countries). Tariff and trade deal news, breaking news, corporate earnings, government law changes, consumer sentiment, inflation data, the FOMC, and presidential announcements can all affect the prices of stocks and ETFs.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NoFomoCharts
ETH ANALYSIS📊 #ETH Analysis ✅There is a formation of Falling Wedge Pattern on daily chart and currently trading around its major support zone🧐 Pattern signals potential bullish movement incoming after sustain above the major support zone 👀Current Price:  $2380 🚀 Target Price:    $2785 ⚡️What to do ? 👀Keep an eye on #ETH price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️ #ETH  #Cryptocurrency  #TechnicalAnalysis  #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
KASPA (KASUSDT) Technical Analysis, 1D Chart KUCOIN + trade planKASPA (KASUSDT) Technical Analysis — 1D Chart by Blaž Fabjan Date: May 19, 2025 Exchange: KUCOIN Pair: KAS/USDT Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal Signal) A rising wedge is currently forming — characterized by converging trendlines sloping upward. Support and Resistance levels are clearly outlined in the orange zones. This pattern often signals a potential breakdown, but an upward breakout is possible with strong momentum. Key Technical Indicators 1. Volume Recent volume surge on uptrend suggests buying interest, but declining volume into the wedge tip hints at a possible exhaustion. 2. VMC Cipher B Divergences Signs of bearish divergence forming; red dots and momentum wave flattening may signal weakening bullish strength. 3. RSI (14) RSI at 53.27: In neutral territory. Slight bearish divergence observed from recent peaks. Watch for a move below 50 as a confirmation of bearish pressure. 4. Money Flow Index (MFI) MFI at 83 (overbought zone): Indicates that buying pressure may soon fade, increasing the probability of a correction. 5. Stochastic RSI (14, 3, 3) Stochastic RSI near 44–49 and crossing downward: Signaling a potential short-term correction. Key Support & Resistance Zones 🟧 Resistance Levels: $0.12 – $0.14 (current wedge resistance zone) $0.16 – $0.18 (next target on bullish breakout) $0.20+ (major resistance if trend continues) 🟧 Support Levels: $0.10 (critical support) $0.08 – $0.09 (wedge breakdown target) $0.065 – $0.07 (strong demand zone) Trading Plan for KASPA (KAS/USDT) Bullish Scenario (Breakout Upwards) Entry: Above $0.115 with strong volume confirmation Targets: TP1: $0.14 TP2: $0.165 TP3: $0.20 Stop-Loss: Below $0.10 (to invalidate wedge structure) Bearish Scenario (Breakdown) Entry: Below $0.10 (support break) Targets: TP1: $0.085 TP2: $0.072 TP3: $0.065 Stop-Loss: Above $0.11 Neutral/Range Strategy If KAS trades between $0.10–$0.115 with low volume: Avoid entry. Wait for breakout or breakdown confirmation. Risk Management Risk/Reward Ratio: Minimum 2:1 Capital Allocation: Max 2–3% of portfolio per trade Use limit orders to control entry points, especially due to high volatility in crypto markets. The rising wedge pattern is often a precursor to downside in crypto. However, macro bullish news, network upgrades, or volume surges may invalidate the bearish setup. Traders should remain flexible and monitor volume, RSI, and support zones for any signs of reversal.
Long
by elfabiiani
GOLD surges 1.5% then falls, US credit rating downgradedOANDA:XAUUSD have recovered from their biggest weekly decline in six months, as growing concerns about the US economic outlook and budget deficit boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,249.80 an ounce in early Asian trading before paring losses, up about 0.55% on the day at press time. Moody's Ratings announced late Friday that it had removed the U.S. government's top credit rating, downgrading the country from Aaa to Aa1. Moody's blamed successive U.S. presidents and lawmakers for the growing budget deficit, although Moody's said the situation showed little sign of improving. "While we recognize that the United States has significant economic and fiscal strength, we believe that these strengths are no longer sufficient to fully offset the deterioration in fiscal metrics," Moody's said in a statement. This “black swan” event has raised concerns about the US financial situation. Safe-haven buying has fueled a sharp rise in gold prices. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has also benefited the gold price trend. This downgrade is likely to add to Wall Street’s growing concerns about the US government bond market. While rising yields typically boost their respective currencies, debt concerns could increase skepticism about the USD. Gold prices have been volatile in recent months. Last week, gold posted its biggest weekly decline since November as geopolitical tensions eased. The move followed a sharp rally in gold, which topped $3,500 an ounce for the first time last month. Gold is still up more than 20% this year, driven by global conflicts, tariffs from US President Donald Trump and flows into exchange-traded funds. Technical outlook OANDA:XAUUSD After gold reached the target resistance of 3,250 USD, it weakened slightly again, this resistance level is noted by readers in the weekly publication. In the short term, gold still has a bearish outlook with the nearest resistance at 3,250 USD followed by the confluence of EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.382%. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, 50 is now acting as resistance while the RSI is still quite far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for a decline in momentum ahead. As long as gold remains below the 21 EMA, it remains bearish in the short term and a break below $3,200 would continue to push gold lower with a target of around $3,163 in the short term. For gold to qualify for the upside, it needs to move above the 21 EMA, break the $3,300 base point and then target around $3,371 in the short term. Intraday, the bearish outlook for gold in the short term will be highlighted again by the following levels. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3261 - 3259⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3265 →Take Profit 1 3253 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3247 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3199 - 3201⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3195 →Take Profit 1 3207 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3213
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
#202520 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: We are only about 300 points higher than the previous week but market printed the obvious big round number and Friday we had the retest, which did not quite get there but close is always close enough. We are seeing somewhat of an increase in selling pressure but it’s not enough. current market cycle: trading range and very broad bull channel on the weekly time frame key levels for next week: 23000 - 24000 bull case: Best for bulls would be to go sideways and not let market fall below 23400. That’s pretty much all I can come up with for the bulls. Can we go much above 24000? We can but I can not see it happening. If we go higher, it will be without me. I am only interested in seeing an increase in selling pressure and looking for a good short entry. I give bulls 2-3 more days in trying to print 24000 again and if they fail 1-2 more times, they will give up and we can test back down to 23000. It would still be the most bullish outcome if we continue to range between 23000 and 24000. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: I only want to short this but bears are not doing enough for me to consider it. I hate being early because it correlates big time with being wrong. My line in the sand would be a daily close below 23000 and the daily 20ema. Until bears get that, odds heavily favor the bulls to buy any pullback. So for now, not much to do as a bear. For this year I still expect at least 20000 to get hit again. So if you would force me to give an answer, I would short this with a stop 24600 and wait until we hit 20000 again. If we go into a recession, I would likely hold for lower. Invalidation is above 24100. short term: Neutral. I wait for clear topping signals and more selling pressure. Long scalps against support if bulls want 24000. Same as last week. medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks/months and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000. We most likely have not seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?” 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202520 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futures Good Day and I hope you are well. comment: The bulls gapped up on Monday’s Globex open and we never looked back. My line in the sand was 20536 and we are now about 1000 points higher. The rally is climactic in a very tight bull channel and those are always unsustainable. We are close to the ath to expect a new one or a retest but I doubt we can get there without at least a couple of days sideways to down movement. If we continue higher from 21500, it will go without me because I don’t think this is a good trade. Bulls should not let the market fall below 20800ish or the trend line breaks and that would decrease the odds of a new ath somewhat. Even if I expect a pullback, I doubt bears will get something big going next week. The rally is too strong to not expect the next pullback to get bought. The only chance bears have to reverse would be a news event and trading on hope is never a good strategy. current market cycle: trading range key levels for next week: 20000 - 22000 bull case: 22000 is the next obvious target for the bulls but I doubt we can get there without some sideways to down movement first. If we print 22000 next week, there is no reason we can’t go for 22500 as well. Bulls have all the arguments on their side right now and the bull channel is clear, so trade it until it is clearly broken. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Very small chance my wave count is correct and we have seen the high of this move. The two-legged correction with a higher high is the best guess I have for now but I would not initiate trades based on that right now. It helps with expectations but not more. Base assumption is a pullback, more upside and then a stronger reversal over the summer and Q2. As of now, bears have absolutely nothing going for them and you can only think about shorts if you are comfortable with holding through 23300ish because that’s how high I can potentially see it going. I fully expect 19000 to get hit again this year but for now this market is as bullish as it gets. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Neutral. Expecting a pullback and that will likely be another good long opportunity if nothing changes dramatically. 22000 is the obvious next target. If we get real bad news, we could see a bigger pullback but even then I would expect at least a retest of 21500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-11: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer. Same update as for dax, I guess we could go down and sideways over the next weeks/months and then have another squeeze into year end. Stairs up, elevator down.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202520 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: I think buying that weekly time frame double bottom below 55 makes sense. Bulls are trying to print 64+ again and hit the weekly 20ema around 64.5ish. I favor the bulls to get to the upper bear wedge trend line a bit higher around 66ish and there market will decide if we continue further in it. The structure has a lot more room, so I don’t think bulls can get much more than that. We are in a bear wedge inside a broad bear channel. Making money as a bear is just easier, that is why I don’t expect too much from the bulls. current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range key levels: 59 - 65 bull case: Bulls trying to make last week’s low a credible higher low and test up to the bear wedge trend line around 64.5 - 65. If we stay above 59.5ish, I favor the bulls. Below that price it get’s neutral again and I would see the odds of 55 the same as for 65. Invalidation is below 59. bear case: Bulls are trying to keep the market above the daily 20ema and form a two-legged pullback at the moving average, which is a buy signal if they get a good signal bar the next 1-3 days. Bears can invalidate it, if they break below 59 and get follow-through below it. It is technically slightly more likely that we continue sideways inside the given range, like we did the past 5 weeks. Structure is neutral, so if bears want to reverse from above 60, they need to print a decent sell signal on Monday/Tuesday. Invalidation is above 64.4 short term: Neutral and will lean towards the side that can print the next decent bull/bear day. Bulls can go up to 65 and bears could trade back down to 55 if we go below 59 again. Only a big bull surprise could get us above the closest next bear trend line and prices above 66. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: 3 legs down on the weekly chart and market has printed a credible bottom around 55. I think we can test back to 65 over the next weeks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202520 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Can’t be anything but bullish. Nothing changed so this bias did not change either. Bulls were so strong that we have corrected sideways in a tight range for 9 days now and if bears can’t even print one decent bear bar after such a rally, bears are doing absolutely nothing and the correction is mostly from bulls taking profits. We can only expect higher prices until bears come around with much bigger selling pressure. Targets above are obvious, new ath above 109396 and then the big bull trend line around 113000. current market cycle: weekly time frame is in a bull trend inside a big bull wedge - daily time frame is in a tight bull channel key levels: 95k - 115k bull case: Upside will likely be limited to something below 120000 but bulls are in full control until we print below a higher low again. Bulls want 110000 and then some. It’s a clear bull wedge and longs above 100000 are tough because stop has to be at least 97000. Market has moved sideways enough to expect another leg up any day now. Invalidation is below 97000. bear case: Bears can only have hope that we will still find no acceptance above 100000 on the weekly & monthly time frames and once we get the spike to 110000 we will turn again. I printed the monthly chart because it shows the tails above 100000 and that we are in the retest of the previous ath, which is the same structure as we did in 2021. As of now, bears have nothing going for them until we actually turn again. I still heavily favor the bears to print below 80000 this year but right now you should not look for shorts. Invalidation is above 112000. short term: Bullish but buying at the very top is tough. Any long 100000 or 98000 is likely good, if it’s not during a crazy strong bear spike. New ath or something close is expected. medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-11: I expect a trading range 700000 - 100000 for longer. The current move above 100000 I see as a retest of the ath and it could overshoot but I doubt market can find acceptance there for longer. Only interested in shorts on anything above the 1h time frame.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by priceactiontds
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 19 - May 23]During the week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated strongly, falling from $3,292/oz to $3,120/oz and then recovering to $3,202/oz. The main reason was that the US and China reached a trade agreement, according to which the two sides agreed to significantly reduce tariffs from May 14, creating positive sentiment for the market. This week’s gold sell-off was the steepest since mid-June 2021, even steeper than the drop after Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024. President Trump said there are currently about 150 partners who want to negotiate trade with the US, but the US cannot handle them all at once. In the next 2-3 weeks, the US will announce the export tax rates that partners will have to pay when selling to the US market. The Trump administration will impose specific tariffs on partners that have not yet negotiated with the US, at what level, has not been specifically announced. If the new tariffs remain as high as the initial list of reciprocal tariffs, there is a risk that many partners will retaliate, making the tariff war hotter, pushing gold prices up sharply. On the contrary, if the new tariffs are much lower than the initially announced tariffs, gold prices may only increase moderately, then continue to adjust. After the recent sharp sell-off, profit-taking sentiment is still dominating the market. However, safe-haven demand remains strong due to geopolitical tensions that have not yet ended and concerns about a global economic recession. 📌The gold price trend next week is likely to fluctuate in the range of 3,055 - 3,270 USD/ounce, with a slight decrease scenario being preferred due to profit-taking pressure and the potential recovery of the USD. However, if there is a positive signal from the Fed policy or increased geopolitical instability, the gold price may recover to the range of 3,260 - 3,270 USD/ounce. Investors need to closely monitor economic data and geopolitical fluctuations to make appropriate decisions. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,162 – 3,100 USD Resistance: 3,228 – 3,250 – 3,292 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3271 - 3269⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3275 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3054 - 3056⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3050
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
How to Set Custom Alerts for Futures Trading in TradingViewThis tutorial video demonstrates how to access and add custom alerts for futures and other types of trading as well as manage those alerts. Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by OptimusFutures
Gold - New ATH in the making?Overall Market Context This daily timeframe chart of Gold (XAU/USD) reflects a textbook example of a bullish retracement within a broader upward trend. The price has recently pulled back after printing a significant swing high, which is currently the all-time high (ATH). This retracement brings Gold into a high-probability reversal zone, aligning several technical elements that point toward potential bullish continuation. Retracement Into A Confluence Zone Price has retraced into a key technical area defined by the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.618–0.65) and a Fair Value Gap (FVG). The golden pocket is widely regarded as one of the most reactive retracement levels in Fibonacci analysis, where institutional participants often enter or scale into positions. The addition of an FVG overlapping this zone strengthens its importance. An FVG is typically created by an aggressive move that leaves behind inefficient price action or unmitigated imbalances, and in this case, it represents an area where demand previously overwhelmed supply. The combination of the golden pocket and FVG creates a strong demand zone, from which a bullish reaction is expected if the overall macro sentiment remains supportive. Bullish Reaction And Confirmation Price wicked slightly below the FVG, likely triggering liquidity stops resting beneath prior swing lows before showing signs of a strong bounce. This type of price action—known as a liquidity grab or "spring"—is often a precursor to significant reversals when it aligns with higher timeframe bullish order flow. The current bounce from this zone suggests that smart money may have accumulated long positions here. If price continues to hold above this zone, it confirms a successful defense of this key area and increases the probability of bullish continuation. The market is showing signs of shifting from a retracement phase back into an impulsive phase. Break Of Structure And Targeting Buy-Side Liquidity The next key area of interest is the buy-side liquidity resting above the most recent swing high, labeled as the "BSL" (Buy-Side Liquidity). If price breaches this level, it will confirm a break of market structure to the upside and signal a continuation of the overall bullish trend. Such a break would invalidate the idea of deeper retracement and instead align with an impulsive leg that could target the previous ATH—and potentially exceed it. This makes the current zone a critical pivot point in determining whether gold resumes its long-term bullish trajectory. New All-Time High Scenario Should the BSL be breached and momentum maintained, price is likely to head toward printing a new all-time high. From a psychological and technical standpoint, the break of an ATH often leads to price discovery, where resistance is minimal, and price action becomes more volatile and parabolic. Traders and institutions monitoring historical highs often front-run such moves or aggressively participate once confirmed, driving increased volume and volatility. This behavior can lead to rapid upside extension, especially when supported by macroeconomic narratives such as inflation hedging, geopolitical tensions, or declining real yields—all traditionally bullish catalysts for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Louigi_24
57
GOLD falls to support $3,200, recovery momentum weakensOANDA:XAUUSD rebounded sharply on Thursday's trading day and weakened rapidly in the first half of the Asian trading session today, Friday (May 16). Gold is currently trading at $3,210/oz, equivalent to a decrease of $30 on the day, down about 0.93% as of the time of writing. OANDA:XAUUSD accelerated their recovery on Thursday as weak US economic data fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and weighed on the US dollar. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence from Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Turkey also prompted some safe-haven buying. Information surrounding the Russia-Ukraine talks is brought to readers through brief comments during the day. Data released on Thursday showed that the US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell in April and retail sales growth slowed significantly, while the consumer price index (CPI) for April released earlier in the week rose less than expected. The data showed that the US PPI unexpectedly fell 0.5% month-over-month in April, while the market expected a growth of 0.2%; the core PPI fell 0.4%, also below the expected growth of 0.3%. Meanwhile, US retail sales increased slightly by 0.1% month-over-month in April, slowing significantly from March's 1.7%. Thursday’s data provided more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and market expectations to become more dovish. Gold itself does not generate interest rates, and when rates fall, it increases the appeal of gold. However, the impact from the data was not sustainable enough to generate a stronger rally, while new developments around the Russia-Ukraine talks are showing a positive trend. Gold is not benefiting from a risk-off environment. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart in the short term, gold is still in a position to decline in the short term with pressure from the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement point as the nearest resistance. Meanwhile, in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing signs of folding as it retests the 50 level, which is noted as the closest resistance in terms of momentum to the current position of the RSI. For now, the downside is also limited by the $3,200 base level, which is currently the nearest support and once it is broken below, gold is likely to continue its decline with a target of around $3,163 in the short term, which is the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, rather than $3,120. For the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with the current positions listed below. Support: $3,200 – $3,163 – $3,120 Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3286 - 3284⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3290 →Take Profit 1 3278 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3272 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3159 - 3161⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3155 →Take Profit 1 3167 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3173
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2025-05-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is in peak euphoria again but you would be buying at the very top on an Opex Friday. Like… Just dont. Enjoy your weekend. I expect a rather choppy session maybe even a deep pullback rather than closing the week on another green bar. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20600 - 22000 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and we are high enough, that they could easily get it next week. My count was likely wrong and W1 was not the spike from 16735 to 19388 but rather the leg from 17863 to 20277. That means we are in W3 and W4 is around the corner. I have many calculated targets around 23000 and as of now, there is no reason we can not get there. It’s a very tight bull channel upwards. Bears are not doing anything so the path of least resistance is up. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears need a miracle. That’s it. Best they can maybe get is a pullback to the bull trend line around 20700ish but I highly doubt that. If we print 21000 tomorrow, most bears would be wet and take their profits before letting them see burning away again. My assumption for tomorrow is a choppy session somewhere between 21000 - 21600. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Neutral. Opex Friday, I made my money this week. Absolutely no need to throw it away tomorrow. Less interest in buying up here but bears are barely making money, so I’d rather sit on hands. medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year. trade of the day: Longing the lower low below 21300 is the obvious choice. Market went sideways to up with higher lows for 4h. There were at least 4 big tails on the 15m chart which told the story.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
How to Use Drawing Tools on TradingViewThis tutorial video discusses why and how traders use different types of trading tools, how to access the trading tools in Tradingview, and a few examples of how and why you might apply them. Learn more about using Tradingview to trade futures with Optimus Futures: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures