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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 10 - March 14]OANDA:XAUUSD have recovered strongly this week, rising from $2,858/oz to $2,930/oz before adjusting to $2,910/oz. The main reason is political tension when US President Donald Trump stopped military aid to Ukraine and threatened to sanction Russia if it did not negotiate a ceasefire. This increased instability, supporting gold prices. However, if Russia and Ukraine move towards peace negotiations, gold prices may face downward pressure in the short term, although the possibility is still low. Furthermore, Mr. Trump’s move forced the European Union (EU) to launch a spending package of nearly 1 trillion euros to strengthen the defense of EU member states. This means that the EU’s budget deficit will become larger, leading to higher inflation and lower growth, thereby increasing the role of gold as a safe haven. The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) figure for February came in at 151,000, slightly below the forecast of 159,000. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% from 4% in January, but the labor market remains untroubled. As a result, the Fed may maintain its current interest rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also stressed that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates as the labor market remains strong and inflation risks remain high. Rising inflation while the Fed maintains stable interest rates has caused real interest rates to fall, supporting gold prices. In addition, economic instability due to US tariff policies and the complicated developments of the Russia-Ukraine war have also increased the demand for safe haven gold. However, since most of the risks have been reflected in prices, gold may not increase sharply next week and there is a risk of correction due to short-term profit-taking pressure. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Inflation will be in focus next week as markets digest a number of key data on US prices and consumer spending. The most notable is the February CPI report on Wednesday, followed by the PPI on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday. Other key events include the US JOLTS jobs report on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision on Wednesday morning, and the US weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. 📌Technically, gold prices will fluctuate in a relatively narrow daily range next week with support at $2,890/oz and resistance at $2,930/oz. If gold prices rise above $2,930/oz next week, they could rise to $2,950/oz, followed by strong resistance at $3,000/oz. However, if gold prices are pushed below $2,890/oz next week, they could fall to the $2,835-$2,860/oz range. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,929 – 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2809 - 2811⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Markets hesitant, GOLD sideways on NFP data dayIn the Asian trading session on Friday (March 7), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a very slight decline during the day and the current gold price is around 2,911 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will pay attention to the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to impact the main trends in the gold market. The US non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 160,000 in February. Gold is likely to react more strongly to disappointing employment data than to an optimistic non-farm payrolls report because this will push gold prices higher, ending the period of downward adjustment and subsequent recovery and accumulation in the past. The US will release its February non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 Hanoi time on Friday. Surveys show that the number of non-farm payrolls in the US will increase by 160,000 in February, after increasing by 143,000 in January. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0% in February. Surveys also show that the monthly increase in average wages in the US is expected to slow to 0.3% in February, after increasing by 0.5% in January. Average hourly earnings are likely to increase at an annual rate of 4.1% in February. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring signs of weakness in the labor market as it tries to balance supporting the labor market and controlling inflation. The slowdown in employment data certainly adds complexity to the Fed’s decision-making process. Review of expected data: A large negative surprise in non-farm payrolls, at 100,000 or lower, could put significant pressure on the dollar and open the door for a move higher in gold to help it end the week on the positive side. On the other hand, if the non-farm payrolls figure reaches or exceeds 180k, the dollar could remain firm and limit the upside potential for gold. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still in the process of accumulation before receiving a strong impact of structural change from NFP data released today. Up to now, the upward momentum is limited but short-term price declines are supported from the base price area of ​​2,900 USD, this is considered the closest support to pay attention to readers in the previous publication. Technically, the short-term trend is currently unclear as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also moving sideways in the 60-50 range, indicating that market sentiment is still hesitant. However, considering the overall fundamental and technical picture, my personal opinion is to defend the bullish view, with each decline only being considered a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. During the day, the technical outlook for gold continues to target the technical level of 2,942 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 - 2,880 USD Resistance: 2,942 - 2,956 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2976 - 2974⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2980 →Take Profit 1 2968 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2962 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Another ath but two rejections for 300+ points. I give bulls one more try at this and if we pull back below 23300 again, this likely sells off into the weekend. Past 3 Friday’s we chopped into the weekend after a gap down. Right now is not the time to have bigger positions over the weekend when orange face is at work. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22000 - 24000 bull case: Bulls want 24k now. They are high enough that they could get there but the upper bull trend line is still resistance and every time we touched it in the past days, we sold off for couple hundred points. Bulls know that and since we closed high, I doubt many want to buy above 23200 and hold those over the weekend. Weekly close above 23000 would be very good for the bulls though. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Bears need the week to close below 23k, no ifs or buts. A head & shoulders breakdown would be my preferred structure tomorrow, with a measured move down could get us to 22500 but we would need a news bomb I guess. Technically chop between 23000 - 23500 is most likely after a wild week. Weekly close couple ticks below 23k. Anything below 22900 tomorrow is a bear surprise and could go much lower then. Again, my bullish targets were all met with 23k and this channel can’t go on forever but until it’s broken, bulls are in control. Invalidation is above 23600. short term: Neutral around 23200/300. Bearish only below 22900 or around 23500. I’d like to see a lower high tomorrow and then some really big bear bars and a bear surprise. More likely is chop though. Next days we could get some news that the current government might not be able to get enough votes to get the gigantic special budget approved. If so, could trigger a mini-crash. This market is up here on the hopes and dreams of German stimulus. Not saying it won’t happen but front-running goes horribly wrong sometimes. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying from 23130 was insanely strong on US open but so was the rejection. Both trades were good if you are comfortable with reversing positions. You could have bought at previous support and sold at previous resistance. So both were amazing trades and not the hardest to take.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD fluctuates strongly, affected by ADP and Trump's policiesOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading fluctuated strongly due to the impact of US jobs data and news of Trump's tariffs. ADP's national jobs report, also known as the "small nonfarm" report, showed that private-sector job growth in the United States slowed in February, with just 77,000 jobs created, well below the expected 140,000 jobs. "Policy uncertainty and slowing consumer spending may have contributed to a slowdown in layoffs or hiring last month." ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. "Our data, combined with other recent indicators, shows that employers are hesitant to hire as they assess the future economic environment." After the ADP data was released, the US Dollar index fell sharply, and spot gold prices recovered strongly from the lowest level in Wednesday's trading session of 2,894.27 USD/ounce. As of the time this article was completed, spot gold was trading at 2,923USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.15% on the day. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump will waive tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month for automakers, responding to calls from industry leaders, the White House said on Wednesday. "We will give a one-month exemption to any imported cars that come in through USMCA," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. "The tariffs will still be in effect on April 2, but at the request of the USMCA companies, the president will give them a one-month exemption so they are not financially disadvantaged." According to Bloomberg, US President Trump is considering reducing tariffs on some agricultural products from Canada and Mexico. On Wednesday local time, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said "everything is on the table" and hoped the government would decide to provide relief to the agricultural sector. Specific waivers and exceptions for the agriculture industry, which could include potash and fertilizers, have not yet been determined, Rollins said at the White House. “We believe that the President (Trump) cares very much about these communities,” Rollins said at the White House. On the geopolitical front, aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed steps toward peace with the U.S. national security adviser, and Ukraine and the United States agreed to meet soon. The cooling geopolitical situation in Ukraine can be seen as a pressure on gold prices in the short term. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Concerns about Trump's tariffs have pushed safe-haven gold prices to an all-time high 11 times this year, peaking at $2,956 an ounce on February 24 and rising 11% this year. On the daily chart, gold is currently trading with a newly formed price channel, and the next notable target level at $2,942 is more of an all-time high. However, in terms of momentum, it is facing some obstacles due to the 61 level of the RSI Relative Strength Index. If RSI breaks above this level, this will be a positive signal for price momentum. Even if gold falls below the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook, the current declines should still only be seen as a short-term correction or a buying opportunity. Some notable locations of the day will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2943 - 2941⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2947 →Take Profit 1 2935 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2929 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2877 - 2879⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2873 →Take Profit 1 2885 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2891
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market made a lower high. Most important fact today. Higher low also but for bears it was more important than for the bulls. Range is contracting between 20300 and 20730, so play it. News bombs will likely determine what we will do tomorrow. Embrace the volatility. Trade small and take profits along the way. current market cycle: trading range - only daily closes below 20000 mark the end of this bull trend key levels: 20300 - 20730 (above 20730 we will likely go for 21k / below 20300 is 20000) bull case: Bulls are in reach to break the bear channel and melt higher again. They need to break above tomorrow or bears might do the unthinkable and go below 20000 into the weekend. We have corrected 10% from the ath and a bounce would be a bit more fitting than continuation. My W2 target is around 21200. Very important for bulls is to print higher lows tomorrow, means staying above 20215. Invalidation is below 20215. bear case: Bears continue to have deep intraday bear legs so bulls are not too happy in buying high, which is probably why we are contracting again. Bears want to continue this sharp sell off into the weekend, likely below the big round number 20000. They are still in control until the bear channel is broken. Invalidation is above 21740. short term: Neutral but I kinda slightly favor the bulls since we are at the 2024-11, 2025-02 and 2025-01 support. If the bear channel continues, so be it. Happily shorting this for 20k then but I’d be more surprised if we do not make new highs above 20740 tomorrow and test 21k again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. trade of the day: Range was clear and given, have to play it. Both sides made good money today.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Recap: Short below LIS/Yearly Open Crude OilNYMEX:CL1! Another day and EdgeClear brings you another recap where one of the highlighted scenarios in our weekly plan for WTI crude oil, published on February 24, 2025 , played out as expected. Our Scenario 3 looked at price discovery extending the 2025 range into Q4 2024 lower distribution. Our analysis indicated an initial move lower bouncing from CVPOC 2022 support. The key was price moving below key LIS/yearly open. We did not see a bearish head and shoulders pattern develop, however, the rest of the plan played out as expected. Note the price action till Friday, 28th Feb 2025. We have been consistently providing traders with a roadmap for WTI crude oil with our thoughts and opinions on the market. WTI crude oil is a fundamental product that is affected by several factors, such as: macro, geopolitical, economic, supply, demand, and oil production dynamics. Our analysis considers these developments along with auction market theory and key indicators that may be important to watch at times. As an example, for our January 13, 2025, blog , we noted increased volume with increased open interest that drove bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. We also highlighted potential short opportunities that played out per our plan. For last week’s blog, we noted the overall trend in volume and open interest falling, indicating a potential move lower. This combined with multiple tests of our key LIS/ yearly open, strengthened our thesis for further price discovery lower. In our blog, we have highlighted two key ranges: $70 - $75 - Q1 2025 Value Area $65 - $70 - Q4 2024 Lower Distribution Focus is shifting towards oil market fundamentals i.e., supply, demand, and production outlook. While headline news may drive short-term and intraday volatility, investors and market participant’s focus will shift towards oil market fundamentals. On March 3rd, 2025, OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision from December 5, 2024, to proceed with gradual and flexible return of 2.2 mbpd voluntary cuts, starting April 1, 2025. It provided a detailed table along with a cautious approach should this decision require any amendments. In our analysis, while trade war and tariff tantrum create uncertainty around demand outlook, any news providing clarity on tariffs will be considered net positive.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
GOLD recovers, fueled by trade risks as key support Influenced by US President Trump's imposition of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods, the situation has raised fears of a global trade war. OANDA:XAUUSD found support after fresh tariff concerns and rebounded to target $2,900 and above it the momentum is waning. Trump's tariff policy continues to boost inflation expectations while weakening economic growth expectations, and real yields continue to decline. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will have an important impact on the market. If data shows rising inflation, gold prices could fall as the market may reduce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year, up from 44 basis points last week. Trump's tariff action, which could affect nearly $2.2 trillion in annual US two-way trade with China, takes effect at 12:00 Hanoi time on Tuesday. China responded immediately by imposing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain US imports effective March 10 and imposing a series of new export restrictions on certain designated US entities, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa will immediately apply a 25% tariff on $20.7 billion worth of US goods. JPMorgan said it has a structurally long-term bullish view on gold and expects gold prices to reach $3,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Trump's tariffs are considered inflationary and have prompted many investors to move money into the safe-haven gold, which has risen more than 10% this year. However, higher inflation in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets await the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more information on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved the $2,900 target gain readers noticed in previous editions since it reached support at $2,835. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is weakening but maintaining price activity above the original price level of $2,900 is considered a positive signal for continued upside, and the next target is $2,942 in the short term, more than the all-time high of $2,956. The interim relative strength index is also showing signs of reacting to the 61 resistance level, a continued break towards the overbought area would be a positive signal for bullish expectations in terms of momentum. During the day, gold's price recovery prospects and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2884 - 2886⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2880 →Take Profit 1 2892 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2898
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very strong selling followed by very strong buying but bears defended where they had to. Another one for the 50% retracement if you go from ath down to 22348, the 50% is around 22849 and market stopped the bounce pretty much there. Now we have a big gap up from 22357 up to 22707 but I doubt this will stay open. My bias is bearish with stop 23091 but for now we can’t expect market to drop below 22300 since the buying down there was so strong. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22000 - 23351 bull case: Bulls reversed 78.6% of the selling almost to the tick. I let you figure out which glorified pattern that is. I do not care about them nearly as much as others. I only care about the 50% and then maybe 30% or 60% to determine how strong the pullback is. Bulls showed strength by rallying for 500+ points and that naturally makes me think the downside is limited for now. Problem for them is, the rejection from 22351 on Monday was so strong that they likely won’t buy high again and wait for pullbacks. Since bears also showed strength, we will likely continue sideways. Bulls need something above 23091 to retest 23355 or go higher. Invalidation is below 22300. bear case: Bears had an amazing small-pullback-bear-trend but bulls bought heavily the lows on the news that the EU will do a new fund and Germany will also likely do new debt to finance defense and infrastructure stuff. Does it matter? Not really. Clear descending triangle for us to trade until we make higher highs or lower lows. We are above the 50% of it and I favor the bears to retest at least 22400 tomorrow. So shorts close to 22800 are reasonable. Bears also have going for them, that lately not-bad news got bought but then reversed to the downside, which I believe suits the sell-the-rip market we could be in. US indexes will likely have more downside over the next weeks, since this whole move down could be seen as a bigger W1 on the weekly chart for sp500 and nasdaq. Dax will follow them, just takes a bit more time I guess. Plan for this week is still to hit 22000 and then some strong moves down to 21000 over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 23091. short term: Neutral around 22700. Bearish above 22800 and bullish below 22450. Strong moves to both sides will likely result in sideways movement and not a strong breakout to either side. My thesis is still that Monday was a higher high major trend reversal and we could have seen the highs. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Small pullback bear trend from EU open 22955 down to 22357. It was so strong, you had to be short. 5m 20ema held like a champ. 22350 was previous support and once market stopped making new lows, bears needed to reduce risk and take profits. Could you have anticipated that the bounce would be good for 500+ points? Hell no. If you took a long, good for you. To make a living from trading you don’t have to be perfect or amazing, you just have to be good and that meant, taking reasonable profits on shorts and not watching them disappear on the bounce.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD approaching 2,900USD, conditions for correction endOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery remains high after yesterday's strong increase and the current gold price is at about 2,887 USD ounce, equivalent to a decrease of 0.20% on the day, limited by the lower edge of the technical price channel and the EMA21. Geopolitical tensions and impending tariffs have boosted gold prices. Gold prices continue to rise again, but no other price increases have been confirmed yet. Spot gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, recovering from a three-week low hit in last week's final trading session, as a weaker U.S. dollar and U.S. President Trump's tariff policies spurred safe-haven buying. On Monday local time, US President Trump said at a press conference that the US would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4 and said there was no room for negotiations with these two US allies. Additionally, the US government announced it will impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US starting March 4, citing fentanyl and other issues. Mr. Trump also said on Monday that the United States would impose "reciprocal tariffs" starting April 2 and would impose tariffs on countries that devalue their currencies as sanctions. In addition, Trump said on social networks that the United States will impose tariffs on "foreign" agricultural products from April 2. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After recovering from the support area noticed by readers in the previous issue at the area of ​​2,850 - 2,835 USD, gold has achieved the first target level at 2,880 USD and then approached the next target level at the original price point of 2,900 USD. It is also limited by the original price point of 2,900 USD when this is also the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and EMA21. Once gold breaks the $2,900 level and trades above it, it will be primed to continue rising, marking the end of the downward correction with a target then $2,942 in the short term, more than the location of the all-time peak. The relative strength index is also receiving support from the 50 level, if bullish momentum takes it back above the 60 level, this will be a positive signal for gold price upside on the technical chart. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is recovery with the condition of ending the above adjustment cycle, notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2921 - 2919⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2925 →Take Profit 1 2913 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2907 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2858 - 2860⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2854 →Take Profit 1 2866 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2872
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
NASDAQ: Bearish Engulfing PatternWhat is a bearish engulfing? A bearish engulfing pattern, which is a technical chart pattern that indicates that lower prices are on the way. The pattern consists of an up candlestick (white or green) followed by a big down candlestick (black or red) that eclipses or "engulfs" the smaller up candle. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
GOLD suffered a fierce sell-off, the US Dollar was strongerOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to endure a fierce sell-off fueled by market profit-taking and a stronger US dollar, the US Dollar Index rose to a 10-day high on Friday of 107.66 amid concerns about US trade policy and data that raised fears of a recession. US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexican and Canadian products next week, March 4. This increases market uncertainty. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada does not want to get into a trade war with the United States, but if the United States imposes tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, Canada "will immediately have an extremely strong response." Bloomberg said currency traders bought the dollar after US President Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week. On Friday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model predicted that U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 would be -1.5%, compared with a previous forecast of 2.3%. The US Dollar was boosted after the data was released due to concerns about an economic recession. OANDA:XAUUSD fell to lows in early New York trading on Friday as Wall Street's major indexes opened weak as investors remained cautious about the potential for price pressure from President Trump's policies. As US PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, the data suggested the Federal Reserve may be more cautious in cutting interest rates, which helped the dollar remain at a two-week high. The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in January, in line with expectations. The overall PCE price index in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-over-year in January, also in line with expectations. However, “personally” believes that PCE data does not significantly change Fed price expectations, so it essentially has a small impact on gold prices. Spot gold prices fell 2.7% in the past trading week, the largest weekly decline since November last year. Next, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), (ADP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will become important market data. If inflation data rises too high, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in gold, and the opposite effect if slowing inflation data stimulates market bets on the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Of course, further analysis of the above data will be sent to readers in daily publications. Economic data to watch next week Monday: Euro Flash CPI Estimates, US ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP jobs report; ISM US Services PMI Thursday: European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: US nonfarm payrolls. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week. With its current position, gold does not have enough conditions to continue falling in price as long as gold maintains price activity above 2,835 USD and Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, along with the Relative Strength Index above 50. On the other hand, a confirmation signal for gold price to end the downward correction cycle is price activity returning to the price channel. However, traders also need to be careful as a new bearish cycle will open up once RSI goes below 50, the price chart is sold below 2,814 USD, so protective positions should be placed behind 2,814 USD. In the short term, gold is still in a downward correction cycle and the notable points will be listed as follows. As for "personally", I continue to defend the view that declines are only short-term corrections and not a sustainable trend, declines can also be considered an opportunity to buy. Support: 2,835 – 2,814USD Resistance: 2,868 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2896 - 2894⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2888 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2882 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2819 - 2821⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2815 →Take Profit 1 2827 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2833
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-03-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 791 points from low to high today. The selling stopped exactly at the 50% retracement and this is the line in the sand for my outlook. We have two very big patterns now possible. We either melt much higher to 23800+ or we do a proper correction like the US markets but we very likely won’t continue sideways around 23000. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22500 - 24000 bull case: Bulls are likely in do or die mode. They melted higher but if they can’t stay above the important breakout price 23000, this could become a bull trap/higher high - major trend reversal and we go down from here. If we stay above and correct sideways some around 23000, we will likely retest 23350 tomorrow and could get a second leg up to 23800+. The bull channel is valid until broken, so respect it. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Bears need to break below the bull channel around 22300. Everything else is just neutral, since we are in such a strong bull trend. They have to stop new highs or we continue up. What are the odds that today was a climactic bull trap at the end of this bull trend? I don’t know right now but I have given my invalidation prices, so mark them and look what the market does when we get there. My wave thesis was already done at the previous 23k but we can obviously have another break above and another rally higher. Market is beyond overvalued but who cares if it’s only going up. I start favoring the bears if we can get below 22900 because then the odds that the highs are in become much bigger. Invalidation is above 23400. short term: Neutral around 23k. Bearish below 22900 for more downside to potentially 22300 again but this is much lower probability. Bulls are favored to retest 23350 or get another leg higher. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long below 22600. Market found no acceptance there and the gap to Friday’s close stayed open. Congratulations if you took it and banked 600+ points.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
ES Futures & Macro Trends: Key Levels and Market ScenariosCME_MINI:ES1! Macro and Geopolitics: There was continued news flow over the weekend after derailed talks between Trump and Zelensky. Europe, UK and Saudi Arabia are still pushing for a Russia-US-Ukraine peace deal that will likely include rare earth minerals. We also heard Trump commenting on an executive order on digital assets strategic reserves helping reverse losses in CME BTC futures. Investors see this as a positive development prior to the upcoming Crypto Summit in Washington on March 7th. US March 4th tariff deadlines loom for Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump repeated America's first stance commenting that border security and stopping illegal drug trades should be America’s prime focus. Economic Calendar: Looking ahead this week, key economic events include manufacturing PMI data on Monday, employment and services data midweek, and major central bank decisions and labor market reports toward the end of the week. Here’s a breakdown of important releases: Monday: Manufacturing PMI data release Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Services PMI Crude Oil Inventories Thursday: European Central Bank (ECB): Interest rate decision & monetary policy statement U.S. Data: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Jobless Claims U.S. Trade Balance January 2025 Imports & Exports data Friday: U.S. Employment Data: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report Average Hourly Earnings Unemployment Rate Federal Reserve Speakers: Bowman & Powell scheduled to speak ES Big Picture: Despite increased volatility and risks mounting, looking at the daily chart shows that ES futures are still within range and trading above Nov 4th, 2024 and January 13th, 2025 low, however, 2025 mcVAH and R1 confluence has been acting as strong resistance and keeping the markets from reaching new all-time highs. Despite the risks, our analysis suggests that with the U.S. economy showing resilience, a "buy the dip" approach remains favorable. However, staying selective and strategic with opportunities is key to balancing risk and reward. Key Levels: Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. 2025 VAH: 6,150 2025 VPOC: 6,133.75 LVN: 6,113.25 Neutral Zone: 6,000 - 6,015 2025 VAL: 5,972.50 LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.50 Neutral Zone: 5,916.50 - 5,927.25 Feb 2025 Low: 5,848 Jan 2025 Low: 5,809 Scenario 1: Range bound week Market remains volatile, however, within the neutral zone below key LIS/yearly open and neutral zone above Key LIS/yearly open. Scenario 2: Weak data points slowing economy Worsening economic data points along with progress in Ukraine- US minerals deal points towards further buying. Weaker data points may provide room for further rate cuts should economic weakening further materialize. Scenario 3: Mounting risks and weaker economic data On the contrary, mounting risk and weaker economic data may point towards stagflation as inflation remains sticky while the economy weakens. This provides room for further decline in ES futures.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear