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Money flows out of GOLD ETFs, market focusAs the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the release of economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, these comments could provide insight into the direction of interest rates under the Trump administration. On Tuesday (November 12), OANDA:XAUUSD dropped to the lowest level in nearly 2 months. By the time this article was completed, gold was trading around 2,611 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 0.50% on the day. Dollar index TVC:DXY rose to a 4-month high, making gold more expensive. The US Dollar is expected to benefit from a number of policies of Republican President-elect Donald Trump, which could keep US interest rates relatively high for a long time, which will be an unfavorable environment for gold. not profitable. Wall Street's major indexes hit new closing highs on Monday, boosted by stocks poised to benefit from Trump's potential fiscal policies. Bitcoin also extended its record rally, while short-term US Treasury yields rose to a 3-1/2-month high. Market focus has now shifted to October consumer price index data released on Wednesday, producer price index and weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday and payroll data. Retail sales numbers are released on Friday. Several other central bank governors are expected to speak this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Gold ETFs experience large outflows The World Gold Council said in its latest report that the US election results have influenced gold's impressive gains since the beginning of the year. Reasons include continued strength in bond yields and the US dollar, risk-on sentiment in the stock market, a push for cryptocurrencies and easing geopolitical tensions. The World Gold Council said global gold ETFs are expected to fall by $809 million (12 tons) in the first week of November, with most of the outflows from North America. In addition, COMEX's net inventory also decreased by 74 tons, down 8% compared to the previous week. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw its biggest weekly outflow in more than two years last week following Trump's decisive victory in The election prompted traders to take profits. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, outflows from the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, surpassed $1 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since July 2022. Price Spot gold decreased by 1.9% over the same period. The ETF's total gold holdings decreased by 0.4%, down for the second consecutive week. In times of political and economic uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of gold. Last month, they sought the safety of gold amid growing expectations that the US presidential election would be a hotly contested one. But with Trump winning key battleground states and Republicans taking control of the Senate, the results clearly prompted investors to exit their positions to take profits. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered from the key support level highlighted by readers in yesterday's edition at $2,588 and returned to the price channel. The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level gives it scope for a recovery but the current position will remain unchanged with all conditions tilting towards a bearish outlook. Gold's recovery may continue with a short-term target of around 2,640 USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below $2,588 and the target is then around $2,548 in the short term, more than $2,528. As long as gold remains in the price channel below EMA21, the main trend will still favor the bearish outlook, rallies should be considered short-term corrections. During the day, the outlook for a recovery with a main bearish bias will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 2,600 – 2,588USD Resistance: 2,627 – 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2559 - 2561⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2566 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2571
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Bullish. 95 points below huge support is something. I banged my head against that wall today. Still think the bullish read is good, since market reversed for 200 points from the lows. Bear trend line needs to be broken and then we will likely see 19600 tomorrow or Friday. Below 18900 we flush down to 18500. There is no more support for the bulls and they either get a huge reversal day tomorrow or we will crash down and likely won’t trade above 19000 for a long time. comment: Market had it’s spike below 19000 and is now free to squeeze late bears. First target is 19300 and I think we can print 19600 this week. If it drops below 18980 again, I am wrong and we are most likely on our way to 18500, followed by 18300. Tomorrow is bulls last chance to keep it at the highs or the head & shoulders triggers and measured move down is 18300ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19700 bull case: Bulls need a break above the bear trend line and are then free to melt up and squeeze late bears. I don’t think they can let the market dip below 19000 again or they risk a flush down. Confirmation for the bulls is above 19200. Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Bears outdid themselves with a 95 dip below huge support. They want to stay inside the nested bear wedges and continue down. They should keep it below 19130 or the market turns neutral again. Invalidation is above 19200. short term: Last try to be a bull. Stop is 18900 but I will only go long if I see big buying pressure tomorrow. Below 18900 this bull show is over. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling anywhere near the 1h 20ema was amazing. Again.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - We are at the last stand for the bulls before this is going to free fall down to 2500 or 2400. I have on more open bull gap to 2560 and if that is closed, there is no more support until much lower. It’s obviously max bearish but I won’t short this. r:r is not there imo. comment : Easy to write about. Either bulls reverse this very hard above 2560, or we flush down to 2500. Market made the move from 2600 to 2800 in 40 days and bears now reversed it in 9. This selling is as climactic as it get’s. A short squeeze is almost inevitable at this point. Need huge buying pressure and a give up bar for me to join the bulls. Every touch of the 4h 20ema has been sold for 2 weeks. First target for the bulls is 2600, followed by 2630 and then they still have 2 more bear trend lines to break. Really tough for bulls. If they manage those targets, market turns neutral and we will probably move sideways. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 2600 - 2700 bull case: Bullish have their do or die moment here under 2600. Reverse or flush down to 2500. Selling is overdone, which is weird since we started at overbought. Interesting times. Weekly 20ema is at 2600 and an open bull gap. This support is as good as it gets, if it fails, sell this hard. Invalidation is below 2570. bear case: Bears selling it all. Best shorts are from the 4h 20ema. Can you still sell this on the next 4h ema touch? Yes but you have to be prepared that market will make a higher low, since this is so oversold. Invalidation is above 2630. short term: Neutral until big buying pressure. Below 2570 I join the bears if we flush down. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-13 : Will do an update on the weekend. 3000 is not going to happen. If bulls are lucky, they see 2700 again but for now that’s more of a dream than a likely outcome. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 4h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Neutral. 3 legs down are done and bulls got a couple of 1h bars that closed above the 1h 20ema. We have formed a descending triangle which will break out tomorrow and I do think a break to the upside is much more likely than below but it could happen. Bulls want 70 and bears 67. Below 67 would be 66.72 but I doubt bears can get there. comment : Market is trying to find a bottom. Can wait for a breakout and not trade this contracting range. Bears want 67 and then 66.72 and bulls 70 if they can break above the bear trend line. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Bulls see the 3 clear legs down and now want a correction to at least the 50% retracement at 70.30. Today they finally printed multiple bars above the 1h 20ema and they are producing good buying pressure at 68. Bears will likely try 1-2 more times at 68 before they could give up and we see the upside breakout. Invalidation is below 67.50. bear case: I do think it’s tough to be a bear below 68. Downside could be limited to 66.72 and where would you put your stop? 69? Could work but I would not. Market has not traded below 67 for more than 5 days in September. Ultimately bears want to retest the October low at 65.74 and they have more arguments on their side than the bulls and yet I still don’t think the risk:reward selling below 68 is worth it. Invalidation is above 69.3. short term: Neutral until bulls break 69.3. No interest in selling below 68. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 68 has been profitable and will likely continue to be.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2
2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Bullish. Any long near 19000 is a very good trade until we clearly break below 19000. Market is in a clear trading range 19000 - 19648. Maybe bears will retest 19000 tomorrow but it could also just continue to move up from US close. Only a daily close below 19000 would change things. BTFD. comment: Daily chart continues to show alternating bull/bear bars and getting bearish around 19000 can only go wrong. If bears manage to continue below 19000 and close there, that would certainly change things big time but for now it’s a clear range, so play it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 19700 bull case: Bulls need to trap late bears and a bull trend during the asian session would help big time. Targets above are 1h 20ema at 19240 and then trying to break above the bear trend line. 50% retracement is around 19300 and this is the magnet we are oscillating around. Any long near 19000 is reasonable. Weekly 20ema for futures is 19100 and market could not close below it. Weekly on xetra is 18850, can we get there? Possible but for now I don’t think it’s more likely than a reversal up. Invalidation is below 19000 (maybe give it 30-50 points of room). bear case: Bears have going for them that they keep it below 19600 and the rejections are strong. On the weekly chart we now have made lower lows for 4 consecutive weeks but what do the bears accomplish? Bulls buy every dip and despite 4 bear weeks, we have gone nowhere. Until bears trap bulls with big selling below 19000, this will not change and we continue sideways. Bears need to keep this below 19250 to keep the momentum going. Above 19250 I heavily favor the bulls for 19300 and ignore the bear trend line and just move higher again. Invalidation is above 19300. short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 19000. Target above is 19600 and 20000 if bulls get freaky again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling anywhere near the 1h 20ema was amazing.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD is under pressure as the Middle East cools downOn the Asian market today Tuesday (November 12), spot gold has basically stabilized after yesterday's decline and the gold price is currently at about 2,619 USD/ounce as of the time this article was published. complete. OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election. News point The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election. On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats. In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices. Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations. Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon. Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border. About monetary policy The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory. Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside. The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead. On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548. During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.10 - 11.15.24Last Week : Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value. This Week : Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here. We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top. Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes. On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
3
2024-11-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment. On the daily chart the market is printing alternating bull/bear bars so your guess is as good as mine when this will end. For now it’s best to scalp and fade the extremes. dax futures comment : Slightly bullish bias was right and market just want higher since Globex open. 19600 was rejected as it was last week but at least bulls made higher lows and higher highs again. 19500 is a tough spot for a trade as of now. If bulls can keep it above that price, that would bring much higher prices in play. If we close a 1h bar below, we likely test down to 19350 or lower. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 19700 bull case: Bulls had a decent day but inside prior range and they got rejected at previous resistance. Buying above 19500 was not profitable so far and that did not change today. Best for bulls would be to make 19500 support and poke 19620 enough times until bears give up. It’s currently in a week channel upwards or a trending trading range or whatever you want to call it, it does not matter because you trade them the same. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears need a 1h bar close below 19500 or more bulls will join the buying above 19500. The rejection from 19600 was reasonable strong but in an overall maximum bullish environment, this market will have a hard time going down. If we look at the last 3 bears legs down, they get weaker and I do think many bears will give up, if bulls try to push through 19600 with force. Another way to look at this from the daily tf is that bears prevented the bulls from a daily close above 19500 for 2 weeks now. This can only continue so much until bulls give up. Both sides have reasonable arguments and this is almost always the case in trading ranges. Invalidation is above 19800. short term: Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Any long before EU open with stop 19250 was reasonable and then after the move above 19500 it was tough. At that point 19600 was very likely but stop was very far away for a limited upside. The sell off from 19620 down to 19450 was much stronger than I expected.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Corn Futures and PPI InsightsIntroduction to Corn Futures Market Sentiment Corn Futures are capturing the interest of traders as technical indicators and economic fundamentals align in a potential bullish setup. Currently, the Corn Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a Commodity Channel Index (CCI) bullish crossover, indicating a possible uptrend in prices. Corn Futures have followed suit with an earlier CCI bullish crossover, adding strength to the view that Corn prices could see upward momentum in the coming months. As Corn Futures reflect early signals of a shift in market sentiment, this article explores a straightforward yet effective Bull Call Spread strategy using June 2025 options. By leveraging these CCI signals and key resistance levels, traders could position themselves to benefit from a potential rise in Corn prices while maintaining a controlled risk profile. Corn Futures Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Understanding the specifications of Corn Futures is essential for managing both position size and margin requirements effectively. Here’s a quick breakdown: Price Tick Size: The minimum fluctuation is 0.0025 cents per bushel, equivalent to $12.50 per tick. Margin Requirement: Approximately $1,000 per contract, although this can vary based on broker and market conditions. Analysis of Key Indicators and Market Setup Two primary indicators support the bullish case for Corn Futures: the CCI bullish crossover in both the Corn Futures and the Corn PPI. The CCI, a momentum-based indicator, identifies potential trend reversals by highlighting overbought and oversold conditions. The recent CCI bullish crossover in Corn Futures suggests early buying pressure, while the subsequent crossover in the Corn PPI confirms this trend on the economic front. This alignment between technical and economic indicators provides a potentially unique opportunity for options traders to capture potential upward movement, particularly as Corn prices approach critical resistance levels in front of a potential breakout. Identifying Key Resistance Levels for Corn Futures Resistance levels play a crucial role in setting realistic targets and managing expectations. In the current Corn Futures landscape, the primary resistance level for the front contract is observed around 550. For our target contract, ZCN2025 (July 2025), this resistance translates to approximately 485 due to the effects of contango/backwardation. These resistance levels serve as benchmarks for setting exit targets in a Bull Call Spread. If Corn prices rally towards this zone, it could provide a favorable exit opportunity while maintaining a controlled risk-to-reward structure. The Bull Call Spread Strategy Setup In this setup, we employ a Bull Call Spread using options with a June 20, 2025, expiration date. This strategy is ideal for capturing moderate upside movement while limiting downside risk through a capped loss. Here’s the specific setup: Long Position: Buy the 460 Call for a premium of 25.41. Short Position: Sell the 490 Call for a premium of 15.87. By buying the 460 Call and simultaneously selling the 490 Call, we establish a Bull Call Spread that allows us to benefit from price increases up to the 490 strike level. This setup reduces the net cost of the trade while capping the profit potential at the 490 strike price, aligning with our outlook based on resistance levels. Net Premium (Cost): 25.41−15.87=9.54. Reward-to-Risk Analysis A Bull Call Spread provides a straightforward way to define both maximum profit and loss at the outset. Here’s a closer look: Maximum Profit: Achieved if Corn Futures price rises to or above the 490 strike level at expiration = (490−460)−9.54=20.46. Maximum Loss: Limited to the net premium paid = 9.54. Breakeven Point: 469.54, calculated by adding the net premium to the 460 strike. This structure results in a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.14:1. Forward-Looking Trade Plan and Execution Strategy This Bull Call Spread strategy is structured with specific entry and exit conditions in mind: Entry Condition: Triggered once the ZC1! (continuous Corn Futures contract) surpasses the prior month’s high at 434'2. This confirmation aligns the technical breakout with the ongoing bullish trend indicated by the CCI and PPI crossovers. Target Exit: Based on the resistance level, the target for this trade is 485 on the ZCN2025 contract. Reaching this level would allow for a strategic exit with a maximum profit potential. Alternative Exit: If Corn Futures prices fail to sustain the breakout or if technical indicators weaken significantly, an early exit can be considered to limit losses or preserve gains. By setting these clear parameters, the trade plan maintains discipline, helping traders avoid reactive decision-making and align with the predefined strategy. Risk Management Essentials Effective risk management is crucial, especially when trading options. Here are some best practices: Stop-Loss Strategy: For options traders, a stop-loss can be set based on a percentage of the premium paid or by monitoring underlying futures price action. Position Sizing: Limit the size of the position relative to the account balance to avoid overexposure. This is especially relevant for volatile markets like Corn. Discipline and Emotional Control: Stick to the plan, avoid emotional reactions to market noise, and adhere to entry and exit conditions. Risk management ensures that even if the trade does not perform as expected, losses are limited and capital is preserved for future opportunities. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
Nvidia Bearish again! [S2]---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.*** ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I called the top last time, and now I call it again. Last time we hit TP1 and going towards TP2 but then the election interfered. Now lets see what will happen! Nvidia is bearish once again, the TA remains the same. Got some bear flags showing along with bearish divergences. Also some custom indicators are pointing down as well. Nvidia pumped and made a new high thanks to Donald J. Trump. But I believe the FOMO in the market caused from the election is weaning down plus TA is point down too we should see a decent dump. $146.50-$148.50 TP1: $142.93 TP2: $134.65 TP3: $131.75 Tight Stop Loss: $149.50 Good Stop Loss: $151.25 Loose Stop Loss:$154.50 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.*** ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by MarketAnalyzerFX
1
BITCOIN IS EXPLOADING BIG TIME. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS + TRADE PLANPrice Action & Trend: Bitcoin's current price is around $80,853. The trend is notably bullish, as the price has been in an upward movement with higher highs and higher lows over the past month. The recent price surge indicates strong bullish momentum, potentially aiming for higher resistance levels. Indicators: Market Cipher B: This indicator shows divergences and momentum shifts, often used for trend reversals. Current green dots indicate bullish momentum, and the increasing wave strength suggests strong upward pressure. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is around 74.81, which is within the overbought zone (above 70). This could mean a potential correction or consolidation period might be approaching, as prices may have risen too quickly. Stochastic RSI: The Stochastic RSI shows a value around 89.86, which is also in the overbought zone. This indicator further supports the potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation. HMA Histogram (Hull Moving Average): The histogram shows bullish momentum, but there are hints of divergence, which could indicate a slowdown in bullish strength. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: The nearest strong support is around $72,000. A more significant level sits at approximately $63,000. Resistance: With Bitcoin at $80,853, the next major resistance is likely near $85,000 and then potentially $92,000. Volume: Although volume data isn’t available in this chart, the current price movement suggests significant buying pressure, likely driven by strong sentiment and high interest. Trading Plan Long Position (Buy): Entry: A conservative entry would be to wait for a pullback around the $78,000-$80,000 range, which could act as a minor support in the current bullish setup. Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss just below $72,000, as a break below this level could indicate a shift in trend. Take Profit: Set a target near $85,000 initially. If bullish momentum continues, the next target would be $92,000. Risk-Reward Ratio: Ensure a minimum risk-reward ratio of 2:1 for this trade to manage risk effectively. Short Position (Sell): Given the overbought conditions on both the RSI and Stochastic RSI, a short-term short position could be considered. Entry: Consider shorting near $85,000 if the price reaches this level quickly without consolidation. Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss above $87,000 to protect against a continued breakout. Take Profit: Target a pullback to the $78,000 region or further down to $72,000 if bearish signals strengthen. Risk Management: Limit exposure to a small percentage of the portfolio per trade (e.g., 1-2%) to manage volatility. Monitor key indicators (RSI, Stochastic, Market Cipher B) for any signs of trend exhaustion or divergence that could signal a reversal. Market Sentiment & News Monitoring: Keep an eye on market news that could impact Bitcoin’s price, such as regulatory announcements or macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin’s price can be highly sensitive to sentiment-driven events, so being adaptable to changing market conditions is essential.
by elfabiiani
2
WTI crude oil has bearish conditions prevailingTVC:USOIL continued to decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (November 11), trading around 70.03 USD/barrel. As the storm's impact on the supply side waned, sentiment in favor of rising oil prices faded. At the same time, the US Dollar index is strong and rising, putting pressure on WTI crude oil and global demand is expected to show no signs of recovery. Under many resonances, the positive outlook for WTI crude oil is still quite dim. It is currently near the integer mark of $70. If it falls below again, a return to the previous low is likely. Essentially, continue to pay attention to changes in inventory data, as well as whether the US Dollar Index (Dxy) continues to exert strong pressure on oil prices. On the daily chart, after crude oil TVC:USOIL Under pressure from the area around 72.39USD, readers should note that in previous publications, the recovery momentum has weakened. Meanwhile, moving below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the RSI pointing down from the 50 area will be quite good signals for bearish expectations. The first target level for bearish expectations is $68.77 in the short term, ahead of $68.11 and $66.44. Currently, WTI crude oil has technical conditions that are completely inclined to the downward trend with the price channel being the long-term trend. During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 70 – 68.77 – 68.11USD Resistance: 70.56 – 72.39USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
The downtrend of GOLD is still dominantUnder pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, OANDA:XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery. Although OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold. Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels. In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months. Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0. Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021. These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States. Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential. According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October. China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August. About this week's economic calendar Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions. Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead. Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2635 →Take Profit 1 2646 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2651
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]Last week, after opening at 2,738 USD/oz, gold prices increased slightly to 2,749 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,643 USD/oz after Donald Trump announced his re-election as President. America. In the next trading session, gold price recovered to 2,710 USD/oz when the FED announced to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25%. However, the recovery momentum of gold prices was not sustainable, gold prices quickly dropped to 2,680 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,684 USD/oz. The reason why Donald Trump's re-election as US President caused gold prices to plummet is because: First, investors expect that Mr. Trump will be able to intervene soon to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tension on the Korean peninsula,... Because during his first term, Mr. Trump almost did not let any fierce fighting occur. This will reduce the haven role of gold in the eyes of investors. Second, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to impose a 60% tax on goods imported from China and impose a 20% tax on goods imported from other countries. If Mr. Trump carries out this commitment, it will push up the prices of US consumer goods, causing inflationary pressures to return, forcing the FED to raise interest rates, helping the USD increase sharply compared to other major currencies, causing Gold price dropped sharply. Mr. Trump's victory may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term, but this impact may gradually decrease, because Mr. Trump will officially take office early next year. Therefore, US economic data may receive more attention from investors because it directly impacts the prospect of cutting interest rates by the FED. This week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to this week's major events. The main economic news and events to monitor will be CPI, PPI, October retail sales, and US weekly unemployment benefit claims data. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech next Thursday. 📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, the price of gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern, however, confirmation is needed when the 2642 support zone is broken. If this price model is true, the gold price may drop to an area approaching 2,530 USD/oz. In the opposite case, the gold price will still maintain its upward momentum if the price trades above the 2710 threshold, and at the same time breaks through the peak level at 2,790 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle. Quote from last week: comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken. comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 73 bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up. Invalidation is below 66.7. bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024. Invalidation is above 73. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions. → Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market. short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Market only went lower through spikes, which were followed by a pullback. This is not as strong as it looks and I do think it’s likely that bears get disappointed next week. 2600 is possible but that is the lowest I can see this going for now. Any long closer to 2626 is an amazing trade. I have an open bull gap there and I highly doubt bears will be able to close it. For now bears have turned the daily 20ema into resistance and if you want higher probability on your longs, wait for a breakout above 2725. Quote from last week: comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price. comment : Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo. current market cycle: Best guess right now is a bigger trading range 2600-2800. key levels: 2600 - 2800 bull case: Bulls failed at 2700 and if they don’t close a daily bar above 2720 soon, we could test down to 2600, which is where I expect many more buyers to enter the market again. We have an open bull gap, the October low and the weekly 20 ema in the price area. I do think the closer you can long to 2600, the better the trade. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears had 2 spikes down now and they could get a third before I see this going higher again. Bears know that each sell spike was followed by a bull bar, so the trend down is weak and will likely find it’s bottom soon. Bears will likely wait for another pullback higher to daily 20ema and/or bear trend line around 2710, before trying for a third leg down. Invalidation is above 2730. outlook last week: short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710. → Last Sunday we traded 2749 and now we are at 2694. Good outlook, market got even 50 points lower than my target. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2600 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more. Update: Changed 2700 to 2600, since market broke strongly below 2700 already. Trading range is still my preferred path forward, just the lower end went down 100 points. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000. Quote from last week: comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax. comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now. Invalidation is above 6100. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830. → Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish. short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!. Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one. 6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
SP:SPXLong
by WinnerTrader99